D E S M O N D B A N E - Fluid dynamics, credentialism, and diamonds in the rough
About
A Background
Born 06/25/1998, Desmond Bane of TCU is the premier shooter in this draft. The senior, standing at 6’4.5 w/o shoes & 220 lbs, with a - .5 WS has been having a moment in the sun as the draft discourse moves past the high lotto to the interesting and cramped middle section. The knockdown shooter, before moving to the lonestar state, was killing at Seton Catholic in Richmond, Indiana. It’s normal for draft prospects to have insane public high school statlines, but Bane’s are special. 1800 points in 75 games, 69/42/81 career shooting splits, 1.7 points per shot career, 54 3pt % in his senior year??? Just absolute cruelty. Bane arrived in Fort Worth, a NR recruit with few other college options, and carved out PT immediately. 20 mpg as a fr became 30 mpg as a soph, and then the extremely reasonable 35.5 & 36 mpg in his upperclassman years. The diamond in the rough is no longer in the rough, the diamond is now front and center.
B Press Clippings
Bane is an efficient, high volume shooter who shows enough passing creativity to provide optimism that he can become a secondary creator while also showing signs that he can guard three positions in the NBA.
- Henry Ward, The Kick Ahead
Versatile offensive player with a very high IQ. Solid finisher overall. Can finish with both hands, shows potential using his strength to help finish through contact, has some soft touch finishes with either hand
- The Machine, The Stepien
- T-A-N-K-A-T-H-O-N, do you know what that means?
C General Stats
HS SR | FR | SO | JR | SR | |
20.7 | 30.5 | 35.5 | 36.0 | MPG | |
30 | 7.1 | 12.5 | 15.2 | 16.6 | PPG |
11.5 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 6.3 | RPG |
6.1 | 1 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 3.9 | APG |
3.2 | .2 | .2 | .5 | .5 | BPG |
1.8 | .3 | .9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | SPG |
.824 (182a) | .768 (56a) | .780 (82a) | .867(75a) | .789 (57a) | FT% |
.415 | .283 | .305 | .175 | .131 | FTr |
71.87 | 61.7 | 67.1 | 60.7 | 57.3 | TS% |
.540 (100a) | .380 (79a) | .461 (128a) | .425 (160a) | .442 (208a) | 3P% |
.228 | .399 | .476 | .374 | .477 | 3Pr |
2.1 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 2.3 | TO |
2.9:1 | 1:1 | 1.38:1 | 1.84:1 | 1.69:1 | A:TO |
.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.5 | S% | |
1.2 | .8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | B% | |
27 | 39 (13s) | 33 (32s) | 37 (37s) | 32 (32s) | GP |
FT = 386/452 = .854
3PT= 303/675 = .449
D Fun Fact
Desmond Bane committed a murder one night in Indiana.
But first…
The law of communicating vessels is one of those scientific proofs that uses the fishhook theory of awesomeness, at a face level: filling different connected containers with consistent pressure is super cool, and if you just embrace this a fact and move on, there is a diminishing return on how cool fluid dynamics are, but if you lean and really T H I N K about it, you return to that point of childlike wonder- man, nature is crazy. The water goes UP the straw? But how?
From Playbuzz,
“It's pretty simple. When Vessels are all connected to each other; we start filling one of them with water, water immediately moves to all the other vessels because it tends to reach an equilibrium. In order to maintain an equilibrium in the entire vessel, the same pressure has to be exerted on every point in the water column in each of the five vessels. This is the case when a point in each vessel is at the same depth compared to the water level.”
Y’know how basketball borrows these terms like pressure or gravity or heliocentric to explain a particular concept but then stops short of doing something really out there like using those terms toward a consistent & unified theory of offense dynamics? Yeah… Imagine there were a distinct interconnected purpose for each of the 5 shapes in the above diagram, like say a 3d usage chart across the positions of a 5 man unit. Obviously, there are more points of connection than just one underlying feeder of liquid; usage and shot locations connections between each and any player would have to be mapped out, and of course there has to be a way to measure what “good” or “bad” looks like. And for those weird squiggly containers, who are obviously role players gotta have one of those big round ones in the middle to hold the whole thing together.
*****
Evaluation
A General Scout in Current Archetype
Bane is a comically good shooter, despite a shot selection that is in the Young Thug Tha Leak echelon of exploring the studio space. Bane’s jumper is a little funny, it is a 2 motion shot that generates a great deal of power from the shoulders.In the ideal form, there wouldn’t be as much effort from the upper body and the release angle would be up instead of out. But, when there is this level of success, tinkering is for the true BLESH believers. To the synergy stats.
Like, holy shit. Bane takes some W I L D attempts off the dribble, in a fairly horizontal offense and still scored in the 92nd %ile. Half court 3s? 92nd %ile. 70s for all c&s. 89th %ile for all jumpers, on 264 attempts. Chip theory of game shooting is ever present in conversations about unorthodox shooters, and Bane is an informative point in that dialogue. Here is a player who makes out good on all the conditions to which a shooter can self-organize into their jumper. Not a perfect looking shot, but their shot. Negative momentum, sprinting sideways, otd with the clock winding down - all of that. I feel at times that shooting versatility can be underrated on an aesthetic basis for shooters with unique mechanics - on the idea that “how he is gonna be able to get that off”. And the unlisted answer to that question is ‘by having fucking awesome footwork and the ability to launch from tiny windows’. Bane’s form is consistent and he certainly is strong enough to pull from very deep, but the footwork is the secret here. And that’s even before we consider that it is very likely the best playtype for Bane is running around setting screens (*shudders*), where defenders must choose between getting skinny to avoid being absolutely trucksticked or helping off an elite shooter who will be able to shake into open space. The numbers speak for themselves to a large extent, but I enjoy watching Desmond Bane shoot, so here’s about a billion clips for variety’s sake.
Floppy, one heavy step from catch to release, R/L pattern, with negative momentum. From NBA.com, Bane Ranked 1st in the Big XII in off screen scoring (2.9 ppg). That’s, uh, quite good.
Sprinting towards the sideline, off a DHO, hopping to a dead stop, Bane is entirely on balance as he releases this, just a bit long.
Real JJ hours, sprinting as hard as possible parallel to the rim, DHO, R/L footwork, off a handoff, fading away.
C A S H
L/R gather from the hash. Pure water.
PNR going left, stutter to hop vs a drop big, with a big getting a very good contest.
Going under on high high PNR? It’s going up. This is an airball, but it warms my heart to think about how this 2 star is jacking dream sequence heroball shots in a power 5 conference game. (on this specifically, the concern about having the followthru go forward rather than up is most clear)
And the required PUJ, in case you were getting Hali vibes. Bane took a pretty good amount of attempts midrange (120, shooting 30.8%), often needing some fade or lean to get the shot off. The short arms and low release are a roadblock to heavy midrange volume, but Bane isn’t going to be tasked with any real level of off the bounce creation, so this is a mostly theoretical ‘upside’ concern.
Bane’s finishing has some of the same limitations, his short arms are still short - but Bane can mix craft & touch with being strong as hell to create angles to counteract at a reasonable degree. Bane had 102 rim attempts, shooting 61.8 %, assisted on 39.7% - numbers that belie his creation burden, and while zero dunks isn’t great, it’s harder to get runouts when you gotta be the guy for 36 minutes a night. That 61.8% is pretty close to well known college creators like Pritchard (60.1), Powell (60.1), Butler(60.6), Jalen Harris (61). As we will talk about in a later section, some finishing numbers can be tricked by a ballhandler not being able to get all the way to the rim, and instead be buried in the data mix as floaters or midranges, or dump-offs.
Bane’s best finishing characteristic is to get a shoulder into the defender and extend the opposite hand with his body keeping any realistic challenge far far away. Scrawnier defenders just bounce off Bane. you can hear the weight room call if you listen to this gif closely enough.
The limitations of a semi inflexible player who uses his strength to leverage finishing are obvious, there are not a ton of 5’11 160 point guards to run over in the NBA. Bane is going to need to develop his flexibility and some counters to the Bam Bam routine against bigger stronger more athletic nba defenders.
Against a tilted defense - scrambling to stop an open 3, a busted PNR coverage, helping to cut off the lane - Desmond Bane is a manipulative passer capable of picking out well timed and well framed looks for others. If a trigger defender makes a mistake in PNR coverage, Bane can reach into his bag and pull out the correct pass and use it at the correct time. It is not the improvisational & extemporaneous passing of one LaMelo LaFrance Ball, but it is the well reasoned if/then logic common to block passing reads. Here in this first clip, Xavier has a shallow drop with a tag over top. Bane waits for the tag to reach the paint and then hits the shake with a one hand baseball pass into the shooting pocket. The timing isn’t perfect, but it is effective.
Same concept with a whip pass on the crackback on this DHO. Note how quickly he processes the error by the weakside defender.
The most interesting passing sub-process from Bane is the quick reading of a shell rotation when the floor has just been tilted. In this first clip vs TTU, the corner helps down on the dumpoff, so Bane checks the next rotation, which would be Ramsey to the corner, and so Bane swings to an easy corner three along the baseline.
Same read, on a self created look this time, Bane after one dribble, leaps, sees the roll covered and then throws around the corner while still in the air.
Okay, last baseline read. Attacks top foot on the catch, gets a rotation and reads to the corner shake. This is going to be the most common type of read and usage Bane will see on his rookie deal.
Bane’s defense is exactly what you would figure for an older strong guy with short arms, 4.1 stock % as a senior, good but not the eye popping great that is expected to carry over as a disruptive force. Bane’s positioning and rotation are stupendous & the POA work isn’t to the level of expected value at an NBA level. Bane is best explained as a guy who will do a good job off-ball on the weakest wing and will contribute more to the schematic retention than he will by onball pressure. Desmond Bane is going to make a living guarding guys like Desmond Bane, which is great because the league is fervently searching for guys who play offense like Desmond Bane - which is all to say that there is little danger of there not being an island to hide Bane on. Bane doesn’t have the footspeed to stick with the creators of the NBA but will most likely be able to sap a possession here or there as his technique improves. My thought process is that Bane will be better equipped to handle strong guards and wings than the quicker and craftier set. There are a lot of hop hop happy feet and slalom-ing hip switches, both situations that make for difficult reactions against the deft operators that ply their craft in the association- below, SEC Diet Luka draws a reaction, creates an angle and gets to the line.
Bad PNR angle and recovery, and then, oh. Yeah, short arms.
On the other end of the spectrum is the previously alluded to off-ball. Bane is so good at rotations that he can plug gaps in a rotation therefore helping the defense go from tilted to even - a skill that requires maturity and discipline to go with mastery and anticipation. Look at this first rotation - Bane doubles ball on a stunt to freeze the skip that was about to happen until the next rotation can arrive to deny middle, then Bane sprints opposite slot to cover shooter, before shading down to try and cover the backside angle on the post front. Virtuoso.
Here, Bane switches a PNR, goes corner to cover a blown assignment (TCU… made some defensive mistakes), then pivots to the slot and recovers well enough to push the drive away from the middle. Even if this wasn’t a travel, the ability to push a driver into help from such a leveraged position is very valuable.
The limitations for being this good of a positional defender, and having stocks numbers like those listed above are clear; at a certain point it doesn’t really matter. Dudes consistently shot/finished over Bane, regardless of how close he was, there just isn't enough tools or reactive athleticism to alter shots. There is a camp that says that contests don’t matter, that NBA shooters are gonna do what they are gonna do. I agree with that to an extent, but the best thing a defender can do is actively discourage semi-contested jumpers - and Bane fails that test.
B Swing Skill
Desmond Bane really struggles to dribble. As a creator, Bane is manipulative with jabs, rockers and pivots, with the threat of unleashing a 3 looming in the minds’ of the defense. But once the ball hits the floor or Bane has to shift a defender comfortable with their potential contest - it gets dicey.
His handle is based on snatches and hangs, but when defenders can sit down and do not raise up for the fakes, Bane will just put his head down. There wasn’t a consistent second layer move - like a Euro or a pro hop, to get easy looks out of quarter step or half step advantage. It’s discouraging that this is a much higher physical differential that Bane will have at the NBA level, and it is still not enough for him to muscle to easy buckets. On these next two clips, look at the finishing attempts, the floater/midrange bailout and that chest to chest extension finish referenced before.
It’s one thing to have a handle with it’s problems, it’s another to know that handle has issues and that it can’t be trusted. That’s my main inference with how Bane feels about it, since he early pickups so much out of PNR. At signs of pressure, where a different guard would change speeds, directions, heights, probe or bail - Bane just picks up the ball. It doesn’t lead to the turnovers in college that it will at the next level, it sputters out the timing and momentum of possessions. The shakes and cuts aren’t aligned and Bane has to pivot around to try to cover up the mistake. It’s not just on the perimeter, this obviously plays into the finishing issues, there were many times Bane could really have used an extra dribble to adjust angles for finishes, but the comfort level isn’t there to do so. There are a ton of clips like this and the supply only spells out the discomfort. It seems to me a freshman/sophomore mentality and out of place with how smooth the rest of Bane’s game.
I wish it was the worst aspect of Bane’s handle, but Bane loses the ball and his balance a ton. Mix the ball in hand discomfort with being physically top heavy and you get plays like this:
Or this:
Or this:
Or this:
Luckily, Bane will not be placed in a position where he will be expected to create value thru self-creation against a geared up defense, so I am not as worried as the volume of clips may imply.
C Historical Analysis
I’m not a native user of PI-PM or Wins Added, I only “get” it because the genius people of the internet have explained it in small portions slowly over a period of years, but I can grasp the enormity of the percentiles here. To put it in layman’s terms, Bane was a top 15 player in college basketball last season, and one who was good in some really specific and transferable ways towards the modern nba.
From Wins-added.com
Volume Shooting + heavy pt with a light impact filter. This is a list of nuts shooters, with the exception being Sauce (who got lol kings’d) & a TBD rating on Lauri until he escapes the Boylen orbit. shoutout to the international shooting god Jaycee Carroll. I believe that 3pt shooting starts to stabilize towards reliability around 500 attempts, so Bane’s is near the stabilization line. (750 with .7 relationship is the number cited in the famous Fansided piece, but uh, best of luck finding a college sample of 750, so a lower threshold with less results. I'm trying to find the graph rn) It’s a historical safe bet to believe BANE to be a hell of a shooter.
D Sector Placement
Sector B (explanation on the sector system is here)
Bane is most likely never going to dribble at a positional + level, and to be honest, it’s a fringe benefit if he does. Bane will shoot, Bane will really really shoot, and Bane will be a good scheme defender who can wall up in helpside. How valuable that is to an organization is relative to the need to space the floor, how set the foundation for the team’s next playoff run is and that relativity that cannot be measured in degrees deftly by taking all the boards and mixing them together. That’s not a coagulation of information but a building of an inferior consensus - a watered down (lol) agreement between two orthogonal positions that may not have literally a single point of overlap. Imagine for a moment, a world without the draft (this isn't a case for that, no party wants the draft gone. It's too useful a coronation. But, like, there is a solid enough case for the draft being against US labor laws). In this fictional world, prospects are free agents picking the best situation / most lucrative deal in a match rank type system. For the 76ers, Bane is prolly one of the 7 most useful players in the pursuit of a short term title gambit in this draft. Bane can be a player in the utility of a Marcus Smart, sliding up and down defensive matchups while adapting his shooting profile to suit the lineup. For the Warriors, that number is more than likely in the 20s, they just do not have the same need for that archetype. Does that mean to find a rough mean by sticking numerical values into the blender is going to approximate worth? No.
I can hear the ex-NBA Front Office Blackberry Full of Contacts Analyst decrying ‘ToP FiVe VaLuE fOr a PlAyEr WhO'S NoT A 20 pPg GuY?!’. But what is the purpose of a concept like ‘Draft Day Value’ except to be the same type of rational slurry, one that expires before it can be turned into on-court wins, the nuances of selecting a player too early will be wiped away by larger history should a front office be correct enough for such a decision to matter. It is a thermometer that says high class organization at the top and ‘lol kings’ at the bottom. The Suns selection of Cam Johnson last year would be lauded if the brand names Suns and Cam Johnson were replaced by the generic, ‘NBA team takes supreme wing shooter who matches core timeline much earlier than consensus’. There is no bold move that will be hailed as wise as long as the bottom feeders do it. I’m not breaking new ground by saying people hate being called stupid and would rather take less risks to a more solid reward than huge risks towards big reward, because getting fired in year two for innovations is not how Ernie Grunfeld got millions and millions and millions of dollars out of the Wizards.
My disillusionment of the philosophical conversation is that it will always be rendered as a singular flat number for posterity as clickbait reranks and then this if/then pattern repeats itself over again the next year without any actual antithesis or addition. To some degree, this conversation is about Wiseman, as any conversation in this draft feels to be actually about the spectre of Wiseman, the meaning of consensus thought, the place of bigs and exactly where the threshold of value will be in proximity to relative skills for wings and smalls in a world that tries to cram as many of the highly skilled as possible, for as long as possible - without the portal to offensive rebounding hell opening up. That pattern of consensus and reconstructing consensus is important, because the rate that oncourt basketball has adapted to new realities is faster than the media class of myopic FO washouts are altering their narrative of value & as such, the greater the rift between draft twitter and the folks who ‘grade’ the draft will be. Bet on the things you believe in, if you are right enough for it to matter, the minutiaes of optics are for chumps & can be cleaned up by winning, which is after all, what actually matters here.