After the close 8/16/2018GWO2.jpgGWO2.jpg

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING August 17th

 

Retail Revival with WalMart

 

 

The market started on the upside and never looked back.  The aforementioned WMT was clearly the star of the day opening at $100 +9.88 (10.8%).  Along with the new “trade talks” the market went unencumbered to finish +396.32 (1.58%), NASDAQ +32.40 (.42%), S&P 500 +22.32 (.79%), The Russell +15.09 (.90%), and the DJ Transports +75.41 (.68%).  Market internals were stilted in the direction of the DJIA with the top 6 gainers were BA +96, WMT +57, CAT +29, GS +25, AAPL +21 and UNH +17 for a 6 stock total of 245 Dow points.  The index’s internals were 9:1 up with only 3 losers.  So, the NYSE outperformed NASDAQ with volume of 2.5:1 and A/D 3:1 vs. 5:4 and 2.6:1 respectively.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, yesterday’s ugliness was lain at the feet of M, and today’s monster rally was based on Retail.  WMT beat and as mentioned above spent the day hovering around $100 closing the day $98.64 +8.42 (9.33%).  It bears mentioning here that a company with a $300Billion market cap is not easily moved by 9% in either direction.  Volume today was 43MM.  Other retail names reporting today were JCP with a widening loss and several downgrades finished $1.76-.65 (27%), JWN with a beat and after trading $60 +8 is now 57.61 +5.31 (10.15%), DDS beat expectations but was still a loss and traded 69.88 at the low, down from 94 3 days ago but the last is 76.20 -7.18 (8,65%).  Away from retail, tech stocks were also soft with NVDA beating top and bottom lines but gave poor guidance and is trading $244.50 -12.94 (5.4%), AMAT also beat but gave poor guidance and is trading $45.40 -2.03 (4.3%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, today they were HIGHER with CELG +.95, BIIB +2.21, REGN +10.65 (2.94%), ISRG +1.13, ABBV +1.30, MYL +.08, TEVA +1.77 (its generic Epipen coming to market and approved by the FDA today), PRGO +.96, GILD +.81, VRTX +1.96, BHC +.81, INCY +.98, ICPT +1.01, INNT +.32 (6.35%) and IBB +.89 (.77%).

 

RETAIL was MOSTLY HIGHER as mentioned above with M +.71, JWN +4.89, KSS +1.81, DDS -6.98 (8.4%), SHLD (clearly terminal) -.35 (8.5%), JCP -.62 (26%), WMT +8.35, HD +1.02, TJX +1.01, TGT +1.41, DKS +.20 and the brands, RL +.69, UAA +.33, LULU +3.02 (2.4%), NKE +.25, KORS +.18, and XRT +.17(.34%).

 

FAANG, surprisingly the group was MIXED today with the exception of AAPL +2.76 (to another new high +1.31%) GOOGL -9.22, AMZN +4.38 but almost $20 off its high, FB -4.93, NVDA -13.76 (5.4%), TSLA -3.31, NFLX -4.77, IBM +1.11, BOX +.35 (we bought the 9/27 calls @ $1.15 today and they closed $1.05) and XLK +.32 (.44%).

 

FINANCIALS, were HIGHER with GS +3.75, JPM +.97, BAC +.36, AIG +.36, C +.95, PNC +2.45, WFC +.47, and XLF +.37 (1.33%).

 

OIL, $65.46 +.45 Oil was rocked by supply and drawdown numbers yesterday but after hitting a slight new low but closed near the high of the day. Clearly, this makes me wrong about not closing under $66.  The next area of support comes in between $63-64, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a rally on the slightest geopolitical tension.  The stocks were MIXED to HIGHER with XLE +.58 (.81%).

 

 

METALS, $1,184 – 1.00 the gold failed to hold the round number of $1,200.  This was partially due to the technical but also the fact that like Oil, it is an international commodity priced in the rising US$.  Last night the pajama traders took it as low as $1,167 -18 before it came back early this morning.  Copper collapsed yesterday closing $2.56 -.1220, but bounced back to close $2.6165 + .0565.  It has broken all support going back to May 2017 at $2.50 to about $2.30. We’ll need better economic numbers to get it started back to the upside.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,405 +30. After trading down to below test support at 6,800 we collapsed again hitting $6,110 before a minor rally to trade 6,615.  Tuesday’s low of $5855 is just $100 above contract lows of $5,755 could easily be breached and the overhead supply is still from 6,900 to 7,300.  Today was an “inside day”.  According to the CNBC talking head who is the Bitcoin “expert,” today’s action is contract expiration related and there should be a rally for the next days.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

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After the close 8/15/2018

  Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING August 16th

 

If you can’t Blame Macy’s then it’s the US$




The market started on the downside right out of the gate.  Turkey, tariffs, and weakness in retail ruled the day.  By 11:00 we were making the lows of the day -334 and just below the 25,000 level before the first rally to -200 and a 2:30 test of the lows before a late move back to down just -136.  This left use down, but 2/3 up on the range of the day.  As it turned out, the DJIA was the smallest loser -137.51 (.54%), with NASDAQ – 96.77 (1.23%), S&P 500 -21.59 (.76%), the Russell -21.91 (1.29%) and the DJ Transports actually +1.28 (.001%).

Market internals on the NYSE didn’t improve much and finished with volume 3.7:1 and A/D a sold 2:1, with twice as many new lows vs. highs.  Over on NASDAQ it was 4.3:1 and 3:1 respectively with 3 times as many new lows.

The biggest problem of the day relative to all of the emerging markets seems to be the US$.  Most of these countries (and markets) have debt denominated in US$, and with the recent run from just over $88 to today’s close of $96.59 (9.7%) it makes the repayment very painful.  It also makes international commodities priced in dollars more expensive, and I will point that out later on in this note.


SECTORS:

Other names in the news, the ugliness was generally lain at the feet of Macy’s, which beat top and bottom and was actually UP 1.6% premarket with bottom line beat vs both last year and consensus, top line slightly lower but also above consensus as were same store sales. The only problem was losing a bit of market share.  So, the stock gaped down 2.75 and then got even uglier as the day went on, finishing at $35.15- 6.67 (15.95%).  STZ (Constellation Brands finished up 7.98 yesterday and then announced an investment of about $4 billion in CGC, a Canadian Cannabis company which of course flew up as high as $36 premarket but after the open only traded as high as $33, finishing the day $32.11 +7.49 (30%) while STZ went in the other direction closing $208.27 -13.54 (6.1%) after trading as low as $200 -22 from yesterday’s high.  TLRY, another pot company that had an IPO just last month also finished $29.10 +4.85 (20%).  Also after the close CSCO, which closed basically unchanged on a major down day beat top, bottom and issued solid guidance and we are currently $46.63 +3 (6%).

BIO/PHARMA, today they were MOSTLY LOWER with CELG -3.44 (3.7%), BIIB -2.91 (.85%), REGN -4.36 (1.2%), ABBV +.83, MYL -.72, TEVA +.36, PRGO -.41, GILD -2.40 (3.1%), VRTX -2.93 (1.7%), BHC -.53, INCY +.42, ICPT -9.45 (8.46%) on a downgrade from RBC, INNT +.09, and IBB -1.83 (1.56%).

RETAIL was LOWER as mentioned above as M is being blamed for dragging down the group with JWN -2.88, KSS -4.38, DDS -10.07 (10.8%), SHLD -.22 (12%) as Eddie Lampert offers to buy the Kenmore brand, JCP -.19, WMT -.40, HD +.86, TJX -1.62, TGT -1.45, DKS -.20, and the brands following with RL -6.84 (4.9%), UAA -.69, LULU -3.02, NKE -.73, KORS -1.17 and XRT -1.41 (2.72%).

FAANG, the group was LOWER today with the exceptions of AAPL +.58 and IBM +.83 this group was pounded with GOOGL -25.92, AMZN -34.98, FB -.79, NVDA -1.91, TSLA -10.13 (2.9%), NFLX -10.29, BIDU -2.11, BABA -1.88, BOX -.44 and XLK -.34 (.46%).

FINANCIALS, were LOWER but not as bad as some of the other groups with GS -.03, JPM -.93, BAC .43, AIG -.10, C -1.30, PNC -.71, WFC -.06 and XLF -016 (.57%).

OIL, $65.01 -2.03 Oil was rocked by supply and drawdown numbers last night and this morning.  As mentioned above, an international commodity priced in US$ was susceptible on both counts.  We went right thru the support around $67 and fell right thru to just under $65.  Clearly, this makes me wrong about not closing under $66.  The next area of support comes in between $63-64.


METALS, $1,185.50 -15.70 the gold failed to hold the round number of $1,200.  This was partially due to the technical but also the fact that like Oil, it is an international commodity priced in the rising US$.  With a break of today’s low of $1,180, support is staggered all the way down to $1,150. Copper totally collapsed again today closing $2.56 -.1220.  It has broken all support going back to May 2017 at $2.50 to about $2.30.

BITCOIN closed $6,360 +288. After trading down to below test support at 6,800 we collapsed again hitting $6,110 before a minor rally to trade 6,615.  Yesterday’s low of $5855 is just $100 above contract lows of $5,755 could easily be breached and the overhead supply is still from 6,900 to 7,300.  According to the CNBC talking head who is the Bitcoin “expert,” today’s action is contract expiration related and there should be a rally for the next days.

Tomorrow is another day.

CAM

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After the close 8/14/2018

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING August 15th

 

 

The market started on the upside this morning and by 11:00 it had made most of the gain for the day, but that didn’t stop it from grinding a bit higher and closing right near the highs.  The DJIA was +112.22 (.45%), NASDAQ +51.18 (.65%), S&P 500 +18.03 (.64%), the Russell +17.26 (1.03%) and the DJ Transports +90.78 (.82%).  The internals on the NYSE were stronger than over at NASDAQ with volume a solid 3:1 up and A/D 2.8:1, while at NASDAQ volume and A/D were both only 3:2 to the positive.  The big gainers on the DJIA were GS, JNJ, UHN and WGA.

 

We finished closing out the last of our CTL calls today.  It was the best trade of the year so far, having bought the 8/19.50 calls at $ .24 and .35 for an average of $ .284 on 25 contracts. That gave us a cost of $710.  The final gain on the liquidations was $2,856 for a gain of 402%.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we started off the day with earning for HD and initially they loved the stock.  The numbers on every metric that I saw they handily beat all expectations, but after trading above $197, it fell just after the open to 191.27 and closed 193.10 -1.04 (.54%).  It amounted to $7 in the DJ.  The other retailers that reported today, TPR (formerly Coach) was the big winner closing $53.16 +5.70 (12%) with AAP a close second at $156.12 +11.29 (7.8%).  ORLY moved with AAP to close 323.27 +8.91 and AZO was +25.46 (3.49%).  A late deal announcement in the Permian FANG taking over EGN.  FANG was halted and reopened $125 -8.75 and EGN 78.70 +5.56.  A typical all stock deal with the acquirer and the acquired moving in opposite direction. PETQ beat and is $31.97 +3.68 (13%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, today they were MOSTLY HIGHER with CELG +.74, BIIB +2.84, REGN -.22, ISRG +8.64, ABBV -.86, MYL +.98, TEVA +.47, PRGO -.19, GILD +.14, VRTX +.88, BHC +.22, INCY +1.58, ICPT +.98, INNT +.29, and IBB +.65 (.56%).

 

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with M +1.80, JWN +1.93, KSS +2.51, SSA +3.61, SHLD +.19 (10%), WMT +1.35, HD -.94, TJX +1.65, TGT +1.26, DKS +1.25 and the brands, RL +1.78, UAA +.71, LULU -.36, NKE unchanged, KORS +1.51 and XRT +1.15 (2.27%).

 

FAANG, the group was MIXED TO HIGHER today with GOOGL +9.50, AMZN +24.50, AAPL +.97, FB +.99, NVDA +5.88, NFLX -4.15, TSLA -8.41, BIDU -1.27, BABA -4.92, IBM +.69, BOX +.53 and XLK +.27 (.37%)

 

FINANCIALS, were HIGHER with GS +5.34, JPM +.76, BAC +.32, AIG +.23, C +.93, PNC +.81, WFC +.39 and XLF +.24 (.87%).

 

OIL, $66.62 -.56  oil was trading 68.05 +.85 when the market closed but there was a number at 5:00 that took it down to 66.62.  In last Sunday’s “Weekly Strategies” I pointed out the issue of Oil getting into overhead resistance and the forming of a “bear flag.”  After we came down from $70 to just under $67 on Wednesday we started to stabilize.  I bought MRO calls for a rebound, which got off to a good start but faltered today.  While we broke $66 to trade 65.71 but I stand by my opinion that we won’t close under $66.  Today’s close 75% up on the daily range is constructive.  The stock closed mostly higher across the board with XLE -.05 (.07%), but I’m not holding my breath for tomorrow morning’s open.

 

 

METALS, $1,201.1 +2.20 the gold failed to hold over $1,230 and broke down and traded $1,210 and then tried to rally past $12.25 but failed.  Today we collapsed to lows not seen since 3/17. Gold generally bottoms in August and rallies in September, but it may do it from a bit lower. Copper collapsed again today closing $2.6845 - .0465.  It was holding above $2.70 before today but now the next stop is the contract low just below today’s 2.6770 at $2.6735, but without solid economic news I think this can trade back to the $2.50 – 2.60 range.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,072 -163. After trading down to below test support at 6,800 we collapsed again hitting $6,110 before a minor rally to trade 6,615.  Today’s low of $5855 is just $100 above contract lows of $5,755 could easily be breached and the overhead supply is now from 6,900 to 7,300.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 8/13/2018

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING August 14th

Why Turkey is not Thailand

 

 

The market started on the downside this morning and spent the day doing not much at all.  The low on the day for the DJIA was -145 and rallied back as much as only -50 but couldn’t hold there and finished -125 (.50%), NASDAQ -19.40 (.26%), S&P 500 -11.35 (.40%), the Russell -11.49 (.68%) and the DJ Transports -69.80 (.63%).  Market internals were poor with NYSE volume almost 4:1 down and A/D 2:1, and NASDAQ slightly less bad at 5:3 volume and 2:1 A/D.

 

The day was a continuation from Friday’s nervousness from the situation in Turkey and its LIRA.  The issues here differ from the 1997 Thai Baht problem that ran through the world’s economies.  First of all, the state of the world’s banking system is dramatically better and the problems seem to be more political.  Much of the exacerbation of the issues was brought to bear when Trump issued more unnecessary tariffs to Turkey without regard for the unintended consequences.  Also on the negative side we are raising rates which generally strengthens the US$, causing further problems by making our goods and services more expensive around the globe.  In addition to that, the geopolitical issue can be summed up just by looking at a map of the area and Turkey’s importance as a partner in NATO.  So, the issue is not exclusively an economic one and carries much bigger and more difficult to quantify actions and reactions.  And one of the main differences between Turkey today and Thai Baht in1997, from my perspective, is that I don’t recall having the problem of Laos or Cambodia or Burma being in the middle of an incursion into any of its neighbors during a civil war. Clearly we know uncertainty breeds discontent in the markets and that is the undercurrent. TUR, the Turkey ETF finished the day $19.07 -2.35 (11%) and down (28%) from $26.65 just last week.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we started off the day with Elliott Management announcing an 8% stake in NLSN and pushing the TV rating service to sell itself, resulting in a gap up and a close +2.65 (12%), NFLX reporting the departure of their CFO causing a $7 gap down, most of it recovered early and managing to hit up on the day, but falling back to close $341.31 -4.56 (1.32%).  Earnings were again a feature for DY issuing disappointing guidance and was $68.09 -21.62 (24 %), VIPS with a miss and trading $8.20 -.80 (8.9%), SWCH also missed and is currently $10.91 -3.07 (22%).  ABIL, mentioned here last week closed $5.99 +1.39 (30%) and is currently $6.33.  One last one from last week, KBSF which went from $5.15 to 7.96 and back again on Wednesday and has continued lower to close today $3.84 -.16 (4%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, today they were MOSTLY LOWER with CELG +.74, BIIB -2.21, REGN -2.33, ISRG -.60, ABBV +1.06, MYL +.33, TEVA -.53, PRGO -.25, GILD +.44, VRTX +.23, BHC -.65, INCY +.43, ICPT -2.83, INNT -.73 (13.4%) and IBB -.22 (.19%).

 

 

RETAIL was MIXED with M +.27, JWN +.83, KSS +.45, DDS +3.91 (4.57%), SHLD (still terminal) -.11 (5.76%), JCP +.09, WMT -.44, HD -1.55, TJX -1.10, TGT -.56, DKS +.59, and the brands RL -.38, UAA +.40, LULU -.46, NKE -.58, KORS -.35, and XRT -.13 (.25%).

 

 

FAANG, the group was MIXED TO LOWER today with GOOGL -2.26, AMZN +12.20 but $27 off the early high), AAPL +1.47, FB +.10, NVDA +1.87, TSLA -.98, BIDU -2.53, BABA -2.26, IBM -1.70, NFLX -4.47, BOX -.43 AND XLK unchanged.  We are completely out of our option position in BOX.

 

FINANCIALS, were LOWER with GS -2.81, JPM -1.83, BAC -.71, AIG -.22, C -1.15, PNC -1.64, WFC -.39 and XLF -.27 (.97%).

 

OIL, $67.20 -.42 in last Sunday’s “Weekly Strategies” I pointed out the issue of Oil getting into overhead resistance and the forming of a “bear flag.”  After we came down from $70 to just under $67 on Wednesday we started to stabilize.  I bought MRO calls for a rebound, which got off to a good start but faltered today.  While we broke $66 to trade 65.71 but I stand by my opinion that we won’t close under $66.  Today’s close 75% up on the daily range is constructive.  The stock closed lower across the board with XLE -.85 (1.13%).

 

METALS, $1,198.90 -20.10 the gold failed to hold over $1,230 and broke down and traded $1,210 and then tried to rally past $12.25 but failed.  Today we collapsed to lows not seen since 3/17. Gold generally bottoms in August and rallies in September, but it may do it from a bit lower. Copper collapsed last week and but is holding above $2.70 for now, but without solid economic news I think this can trade back to the $2.65 -2.70 range, back to contract lows.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,235 – 142. After trading down to below test support at 6,800 we collapsed again hitting $6,110 before a minor rally to trade 6,615.  Contract lows of $5,755 could easily be breached and the overhead supply is now from 6,900 to 7,300.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 8/9/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING August 10th

Best Day in a While

 

 

The market started just slightly on the downside this morning and spent all day in a narrow range just under all-time highs.  I fought with myself all morning about buying SPY calls without the volatility and velocity that I expect at major breakouts.  So, I sat on my hands and by the end of the day the market was on its lows.  Market internals are again unimpressive, but steady.  The one thing that is impressive is that new highs are beginning to accelerate slightly again.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, as the headline says, today was the best day in a while for our performance. Front and center was the earnings report from CTL, a name you have seen here for the last several months, and in the Weekly Strategies for a year or so.  We are long the stock in 10/17 @ $18.54 and again in 2/18 @ $16.61 and we have used its low volatility to write against it on a regular basis. We’ve been collecting dividends at the rate of $2.16/share and an additional 20-40 cents a share every other month.  Not only were we unwritten last night, but we were long the 8/19.50 calls and the 8/20s.  CTL closed $20.97 +2.43 (13.11%) and the options finished $1.50 +1.27 (552%).  We sold some on the way up using our 100% Up rule, but even with that our average was $ .284 and out lowest sale was $.55, and we held the balance.  We also had BOX 8/25 and 8/26 calls and we sold some of the 25s yesterday on the 100% Up rule and we sold all of our 26s today between $ .80-.82.  We still hold the 25s and they finished $1.50 +.35.  BEST DAY IN A WHILE!!

 

DNB is being taken private @ $145 and finished @ $142.19 +19.39 (15.8%), OSTK received an investment in its new venture t ZERO from GSR (Hong Kong), their block- chain  technology, and it was upped from $374MM to $404MM.  Even though they had a decline in margins, increase of 118% in marketing expense and an increase in loss to $65MM from 9.7MM, the stock is higher by 7.75 (20.47%).  DBX reported a beat and was initially higher by $2.50 it is now trading -1.35 (3.78%).  A new issue in March, it has traded between $26 -43.  Other names on the move today were ELF (beauty supply) reported a miss and lowered guidance and was downgraded by just about everyone with an opinion on it and collapsed by 34% to $9.85 -5.06.  PRGO missed (again) and was -8.68 (11%) after trading over 95 earlier this year.  BKNG, formerly Priceline.com, also missed and was -102.61 (5%) after trading as much as 157 early.  KBSF, a $4MM market cap men’s fashion company had no news but traded up 10% yesterday and had an astounding move early today to reach $7.95 +4.80 before finishing the day $4.44 -.71 (13.7%).

  

BIO/PHARMA, today they were MOSTLY LOWER MYL, which reported yesterday and was much lower but rallied late, gave it back today closing -2.60 (6.63%) and PRGO mentioned above -10%), CELG +.76, BIIB -3.19, REGN -2.13, ABBV +1.62, TEVA -.31, GILD +1.29, VRTX +.86, BHC -.58, INCY +.64, ICPT -.64, INNT +.42, and IBB -.18 (.15%).

 

RETAIL was HIGHER again with M +1.58, JWN +1.90, KSS +.70, DDS +2.59, SHLD -.06 (3.3%), JCP +.04, WMT-.36, TJX +1.07, TGT +.21, DKS +.96 with the brands up, RL +2.38, UAA +.46, LULU +1.01, NKE +.93, KORS +2.00 and XRT +.25 (.49%).

 

FAANG, the group was MIXED today with GOOGL +3.13, AMZN +11.16, AAPL +1.51, FB -1.53, NVDA -2.22, TSLA -8.94 but was $347 and is now 361 on news that the board is meeting with financing advisors next week, BIDU -2.10, BABA -.40, IBM -.22, BOX +.46 (we owned the 8/25 calls @ $ .60 and had to give up half at $1.20 on the 100% Up rule and the second half closed $1.50; we also own some 8/26 calls @ $ .40 and we sold them at 80-82.), and XLK +.03 (.04%).

 

FINANCIALS, were LOWER with GS -2.72, JPM -1.07, BAC -.20, AIG -.44, C -1.02, PNC -1.12, WFC -.34, and XLF -.16 (.56%).

 

OIL, $66.81 -.13 in Sundays “Weekly Strategies” I pointed out the issue of Oil getting into overhead resistance and the forming of a “bear flag.”  The problem with Oil not being able to break above and hold $70 -70.60 set us up for today’s decline.  Support now extends from $64.50-$66.  While I can’t predict how long it will take for Oil to stabilize, it may bounce on geopolitical news but I think it needs a consolidation.

 

METALS, $1,219 -1.10 the gold failed to hold over $1,230 and broke down and traded $1,210 Friday but rallied to close $1225, after the rally to 1,235 we failed to move higher and collapsed back to 1,210.  While I want to play on the long side I am waiting.  Gold generally bottoms in August and rallies in September. Copper collapsed last week and but rallied a bit yesterday and today to close $2.7655 +.0145, but without solid economic news I think this can trade back to the $2.65 -2.70 range, back to contract lows.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,460 +153.  After trading down to below test support at 6,800 we collapsed again hitting $6,110 before a minor rally to close 6307.  Contract lows of $5,755 could easily be breached and the overhead supply is now from 6,900 to 7,300.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 8/8/2018

 

 Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING August 9th

Energy Trouble

The market started on the downside in the DJIA and stayed there all day with a low of -71 and a close of -45.15 (.18%) with the NASDAQ +4.67 (.06%), S&P 500 -.75 (.03%) and the Russell -1.42 (.08%) and DJ Transports -42.64 (.38%).  It was about as quiet as a summer day gets and the market internals reflected it as NYSE volume was 2:3 down with A/D 1:1, and over on NASDAQ we were 1:1 volume with A/D 3:2 up.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, last night DIS reported a miss but moved from down 4 to up, but today it wasn’t so fortunate closing 113.98-2.58 (2.2%), AAOI beat and after trading as high as $46, closed 40.92 +3.69 (9.9%), LITE beat top and bottom and this AAPL supplier traded $61 but couldn’t hold on and finished the day $56.50 -1.35 (2.3%). Hostess, maker of the Twinkie missed and was $11.49 -2.45 (17.6%), KORS beat and finished +4.41 (6.7%), ROKU beat and was +3.54 (7.49%) and YELP +4.44 (11.6%). One of our positions, CTL beat and gave strong guidance and told us that they were maintaining their dividend ($2.16 or 11+%) and it is trading 19.10 +.55 (2.9%).  We own the 8/19.50 calls with an average cost of $ .284 and they closed $ .23 before the news.

 

Two small ones with big news were ABIL, an Israeli cybersecurity firm that moved from $2.14 to 14.55 and back to 2.73 since late June closed $6.60 +3.66 (124%) and SBBP a biotech with “statistically significant” results on a Phase 3 trial was $5.90 +1.40 (31%).

 

The big news from TSLA was debated all day with the stock moving between $368.84 and 382.64 and closing 370.34 -9.23 (2.4%) in a relatively tame day.  The issues of whether Mr. Musk really has a deal and if there is actually funding “arranged” as stated.  It certainly gave all of the talking heads ammunition to speculate beyond all reason as to whether it was going to get the SEC involved.  Of course it will, and they will waste a bunch of taxpayer money to come up with the final conclusion that it may have been unusual, but it wasn’t criminal.  Save the money and just step back…

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, today they were MIXED to lower with CELG +1.04, BIIB -.01, REGN -17.15 (4.3%), ISRG +1.38, ABBV -.35, MYL after gapping down to 35.05 -4 but traded all the way back to close 39.23 +.69 (1.79%), TEVA -.70, PRGO-.35, GILD -1.52, VRTX -2.21, INCY +.60, ICPT +1.17, INNT +1.26 (27%) and IBB -1.18 (1%).

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with M +.53, JWN +1.15, KSS +1.70, DDS +2.50 (I wanted to trade this one but the options have NO liquidity), SHLD +.07, JCP unch., WMT +.28, HD +.96, TJX +.71, TGT +.04 and the brands RL +.93, UAA +.34, LULU +1.49, and KORS on better earnings +4.40 (6.7%) and XRT +.03 (.06%).

 

FAANG, the group was MIXED today with GOOGL +3.46, AMZN +21.22, AAPL -.16, FB +1.59, NVDA +1.65, TSLA -9.67, NFLX -3.75, BIDU -4.87, BABA -2.15, IBM +.13, BOX +.13 (we owned the 8/25 calls @ $ .60 and had to give up half at $1.20 on the 100% Up rule and the second half closed $1.15; we also own some 8/26 calls @ $ .40 and they closed $ .55.), and XLK -.01.

 

FINANCIALS, were MOSTLY HIGHER with GS -1.65, JPM +.15, BAC +.24, AIG -.65, C +.37, PNC +42, WFC +.28 and XLF +.07 (.25%).

 

OIL, $66.94 -2.33 in Sundays “Weekly Strategies” I pointed out the issue of Oil getting into overhead resistance and the forming of a “bear flag.”  The problem with Oil not being able to break above and hold $70 -70.60 set us up for today’s decline.  Support now extends from $64.50-$66.  While I can’t predict how long it will take for Oil to stabilize, it may bounce on geopolitical news but I think it needs a consolidation.

 

 

METALS, $1,221 +2.70 the gold failed to hold over $1,230 and broke down and traded $1,210 Friday but rallied to close $1225, after the rally to 1,235 we failed to move higher and collapsed back to 1,210.  While I want to play on the long side I am waiting.  Gold generally bottoms in August and rallies in September. Copper collapsed last week and but rallied a bit yesterday and we were - $.0010 @ $2.7510,  but without solid economic news I think this can trade back to the $2.65 -2.70 range, back to contract lows.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,307 -543.  After trading down to below test support at 6,800 we collapsed again hitting $6,110 before a minor rally to close 6307.  Contract lows of $5,755 could easily be breached and the overhead supply is now from 6,900 to 7,300.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 8/7/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING August 8th

DIS Miss,  TSLA Private??

 

 

The market started on the upside and we rallied to +180 and stayed there most of the day.  We finished +126.73 (.50%), NASDAQ +23.98 (.32%), S&P 500 +8.05 (.28%), the Russell +3.99 (.24%) and the DJ Transports +120.59 (1.09%).  Market internals were unimpressive with NYSE volume 4:3 and A/D an anemic 1.2:1, on NASDAQ 1:1 and 4:3, neither particularly robust showing at market highs.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, DIS reported a miss and after selling off to $112.85 almost $4 lower it has rallied back to be trading $116.60 +.66.  I would assume (haven’t heard the call that there are unusual costs for rolling out there OTP offering and the expenses involved in the Fox purchase.  There were plenty of problems early with GEMP losing a deal with PFE and reporting a loss traded $3.63 -3.71 (50%), ONCE with a poor trial result and Q2 below expectations traded down to 51.60 before closing $56.10 -21.60(27.3%).  XY, the dental firm beat, but issued poor guidance, a restructuring due to inventory problems and trading as high as $69 in December finished at a 5 ½ year low at $39.41 -9.03 (18.46%).  DF cited higher transportation and fuel cost for its miss and finished $8.04 -1.78 (18.1%). PZZA, the embattled Papa John’s missed again and after being $90 in 12/17 is now 36.80 -4.39 (9.9%).  Love is not to strong word for MTCH, the dating company beating on all metrics and trading up to $45.27 +6.39 (16.4%).

 

The biggest news today was delivered in the form of a tweet by Elon Musk stating “thinking about taking TSLA private at $420. Funding secured.”  That was good for a move from $342 to $370, and an hour or so of “Trading halted, news pending” and finally a reopen and move to $387 with a close of $379.57 +37.58 (10.99%).  The short in this stock is over 20%, and a deal to take it private could run it substantially over that number as the shorts have to cover and make delivery.  The other issue is that if he actually does have the desire and ability to do a deal like this is that $420 may be too low for some holders.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, as a group, this often becomes a “hiding place” for investors since it is considered a defensive sector.  Today they were MIXED with CELG +1.01, BIIB +8.93 (2.6%), REGN -2.05, ISRG -2.90, ABBV -2.72, MYL +.81, TEVA +1.19, PRGO +.86, GILD +.51, INCY +1.27, ICPT +2.04 after yesterday’s 17, INNT -.01 and IBB +1.44 (1.23%).

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with only 1 stock, TGT -.19, while the rest of the list was higher across the board.  And the ETF was XRT +.53 (1.05%).

 

FAANG, the group was mostly HIGHER today with only AAPL -1.96, and FB -1.78 lower.  GOOGL +18.83, AMZN +14.73, NVDA +2.82, TSLA +37.66 and discussed on page 1, BIDU -6.70, BABA +1.37, IBM +.67, BOX +.67 (we owned the 8/25 calls @ $ .60 and had to give up half at $1.20 on the 100% Up rule and the second half closed $1.14; we also own some 8/26 calls @ $ .40 and they closed $ .57.), and XLK +.34 (. 47%).

 

FINANCIALS, were MOSTLY HIGHER with GS +2.02, JPM +.43, BAC unchanged, AIG -.53, C +.01, PNC +.52, WFC +.11 and XLF +.09 (.32%).

 

OIL, $69.09 +.08 after coming down again and testing $67 (66.97) today we rallied back to close near the highs yesterday and today was a non-event “inside day”. We still have another high at $70.60 and a good deal of supply just above $71.00, but with the test of the low end complete I still favor the long side to the $72-74 and will be back on the long side of MRO.  The stocks were HIGHER today with the notable exception of APC -3.59 (5.26%) down on a lawsuit that they won in the past but was granted class action status.  XLE was +.56 (.74%).

 

 

METALS, $1,218.30 + .60 the gold failed to hold over $1,230 and broke down and traded $1,210 Friday but rallied to close $1225, after the rally to 1,235 we failed to move higher and collapsed back to 1,210.  While I want to play on the long side I am waiting.  Gold generally bottoms in August and rallies in September. Copper collapsed last week and but rallied a bit today to close $2.7520 +.0205 but without solid economic news I think this can trade back to the $2.65 -2.70 range, back to contract lows.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,850 -70.  After trading down to below 7,500 again Thursday we broke lower yesterday.  As I said last night, a break of 7.850 makes support at $7,400 very important.  Since we broke $7,300 then $7,000 BC has to hold $6,800 or we will see new contract lows.  Overhead supply from 8,000 to 8,500 is formidable.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

                                                                          https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs                                                                                     

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After the close 8/6/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING August 7th

New High for DIS and a FB Recovery

 

 

The market started off a bit on the weak side for the DJIA but S&P 500 unchanged to slightly higher.  They couldn’t hold the S&P or NASDAQ with FB announcing a possible deal with banks and data sharing.  I’m amazed that nobody cares about FB failure to protect data and now wants to get your bank info.  What could possibly go wrong?  In any event, FB managed to break back into the gap that it left on its last earnings report.  By day’s end DJIA was +39.50 (.16%), NASDAQ +47.67 (.61%), S&P 500 +10.05 (.35%) the Russell +10.94 (.65%) and DJ Transports +64.38 (.58%).  Internals were strong with NYSE volume 4:3 and A/D 1.8:1 while NASDAQ volume was much stronger at 2.5:1 and A/D 3:2.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, DIS broke above its highs from April ($116.10) and looks like the next breakout would be over the 2015 high at $122.08. There was no shortage of earnings news in both directions as TWLO beat and is trading $73.20 +9.94 (15.71%), ETSY beat and was up almost as much in late trading as was its actual price back in early 2016 currently $47.10 +4.76 (11.1%).  WTW beat and after trading $83 -5 is $88.10 – 1.36, and Z missed and announced an acquisition for an undisclosed sum and is $48.87 -9.28 (15.96%).  BLNK, discussed here in May at $1.47 is an Electric Vehicle charging system and network which went as high as $8.65 and came back to $2.76 and was as high as $4.86 closed $4.42 +1.02 (30%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, as a group, this often becomes a “hiding place” for investors since it is considered a defensive sector.  Today they were LOWER with the exception of ICPT which received several upgrades since reporting and was +17.74 (18.24%), with CELG -1.22, BIIB -2.04, REGN -4.83, ABBV +.47, MYL -.72, TEVA -.09, PRGO-1.01, GILD -.05 VRTX +.39, INCY -1.29, INNT -.34 (7%), and IBB -.23 (.20%).

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with M -.40, JWN +.35, KSS +.35, DDS +1.24, SHLD +.01, JCP -.02, WMT +.10, TJX +.91, TGT -.03, DKS + .68 and the brands were stronger with RL +1.41, UAA-.17, LULU +.32, NKE +.56, KORS +1.49 and XRT +.30 (.60%).

 

FAANG, the group was mostly HIGHER today with GOOGL -1.91, AMZN +24.17, AAPL +1.07, FB +7.86 (4.42%), TSLA -8.17 (2.35%), NVDA +1.65, BIDU -3.25, BABA -2.17, IBM -1.58 BOX +.41 (1.67%) (we own the BOX 8/25 calls at $ .60 and they closed $ .71), and XLK +.90 (.54%).

 

FINANCIALS, were MIXED with GS +1.43, JPM -.08, BAC -.03, AIG -.55, C -.09, PNC +.39, WFC -.08, and XLF +.15 (.53%)

 

OIL, $69.01 +.52 after coming down again and testing $67 (66.97) today we rallied back to close near the highs and solidly up on the day. We have another high at $70.60 and a good deal of supply just above $71.00, but with the test of the low end complete I still favor the long side to the $72-74 and will be back on the long side of MRO.  The stocks were HIGHER today with XLE +.28 (.37%).

 

METALS, $1,217.70 -5.50 the gold failed to hold over $1,230 and broke down and traded $1,210 Friday but rallied to close $1225, after the rally to 1,235 we failed to move higher and collapsed today. While I want to play on the long side I am waiting.  Gold generally bottoms in August and rallies in September. Copper collapsed last week and continued lower again closing $2.7315 - .0320 and without solid economic news I think this can trade back to the $2.65 -2.70 range, back to contract lows.

 

BITCOIN closed $6920 - 475.  After trading down to below 7,500 again Thursday we broke lower today.  As I said last night, a break of 7.850 makes support at $7,400 very important.  Since we broke $7,300 then $7,000 BC has to hold $6,800 or we will see new contract lows.  Overhead supply from 8,000 to 8,500 is formidable.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs

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After the close 8/2/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING August 3rd

$1,000,000,000,000

 

 

The market got smacked at the open based on tariff concerns and poor performance overseas, but the rally started almost immediately climbing out of the dirt to close up on the day, with the exception of DJIA -7.66 (.03%) after making a low -213.  NASDAQ +95.40 (1.24), S&P 500 +13.86 (.49%), the Russell +12.84 (.77%), and DJ Transports +72.67 (.66%). The weakness in the Dow was the “old guard” names like BA, CVX, MCD, MMM, and DWDP, all down roughly $10-15 Dow points while AAPL broke $1Trillion and added $40 Dow points all by itself.  Market internals were positive with NYSE volume 4:3 and A/D 3:2, while NASDAQ was 2:1 and 3:2 respectively.  It was clearly an upbeat day of “risk-on.”

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, AAPL was clearly the star today becoming the first U.S. Company to top the $1 Trillion number but there were several other big winners (and losers) to note.  ACIA beat and after closing +1.25 is now $37.20 + another $3.54 (10%), TTWO down from $130 last week beat and after closing +1.00 it is trading $127 + another $14 (12.3%).  The losers were AIG with a miss and -$3.08 (5.58%), SHAK beat but same store sales were a disappointment and is -3.44 (5.38%), CBS was a slight miss and the stock was - .70 (1.3%), but the company announced that they would not address anything other than results, causing many to stand back until there is some resolution to recent accusations about the CEO Les Moonves.  

 

SONOS (SONO) soared on its IPO today. The stock was priced at $15.00, opened $16.00 and traded as high as $21.00.  The close was just over $20 for a first day gain of 33%.  APRN, also a new issue last summer with a high of $11 on its IPO day has come down to $1.72 this spring before rallying to $4.15 three weeks ago reported worse than expected numbers and closed today $1.83 - .59 (24.3%) Sorry Mr. Wonderful !!  

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, as a group, this often becomes a “hiding place” for investors since it is considered a defensive sector.  Today they were HIGHER with the exception of TEVA -2.27 (9.2%) and PRGO -1.01(1.27%) on disappointing sales of their generic drugs while CELG +.36, BIIB +3.87, REGN +27.97 (7.54%) on an earnings beat, as well as ICPT +9.06 (9.87%) on its own numbers.  IBB was +1.08 (.92%).

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with M +.76, JWN +.49, KSS +1.37, DDS +1.13, SHLD (yes still terminal) -.03 (1.61%), JCP -.07, WMT +.75, HD -.64, TJX +1.05, TGT +1.81 while the brands were stronger with RL +1.65, UAA +.51, LULU +3.61, NKE +1.11, KORS +.19, GPS +.86, and XRT +.51 (1.04%).

 

FAANG, the group was mostly HIGHER today with only BABA -2.67 and IBM-.50 the exceptions. GOOGL +9.01, AMZN +37.88, AAPL +5.97, FB +4.78, TSLA +48.51 (16.42%), NVDA +5.03, BIDU +2.50, BOX +.96 (4.06%), (we own the BOX 8/25 calls at $ .60 and they closed $ .69), and XLK +.90 (1.26%).

 

FINANCIALS, were MIXED with GS-1.99, JPM +.49, BAC +.04, AIG -2.59, C -.06, PNC +.12, WFC +.63 and XLF +.04 (.14%).

 

OIL, $68.97 +1.31 after coming down again and testing $67 (66.97) today we rallied back to close near the highs and solidly up on the day. We have another high at $70.60 and a good deal of supply just above $71.00, but with the test of the low end complete I still favor the long side to the $72-74 and will be back on the long side of MRO.  The stocks were mixed to lower today with XLE -.42 (.55%).

 

METALS, $1,216.70 -10.90. the gold failed to hold over $1,230 and broke down and traded $1,210 Friday but rallied to close $1225, after the rally to 1,235 we failed to move higher and collapsed today. While I want to play on the long side I am waiting.  Gold generally bottoms in August and rallies in September. Copper collapsed yesterday and continued lower again closing $2.7285 - .0190 and without solid economic news I think this can trade back to the $2.65 -2.70 range, back to contract lows.

 

BITCOIN closed $7,535 +5.  After trading down to below 7,500 again yesterday we had a quiet narrow range day today.  As I said last night, a break of 7.850 makes support at $7,400 very important.  If we break $7,300 then $6,800 has to hold or we will see new contract lows.  Overhead supply from 8,000 to 8,500 is formidable.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 8/1/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING August 2nd

AAPL Lifts NASDAQ

Is Elon Musk, Patrick Byrne ?

 

 

The market got a lift at the open from AAPL and a couple of other names based on earnings, but by noon we slipped below unchanged.  The Fed meeting and it’s press release that they were leaving rates unchanged was exactly as expected. Their notes seem to show that they might be slightly behind the curve. Unfortunately, there was also a Trump administration announcement that we would hear something on tariffs at 3:30 gave the market a further loss with CAT going from -1.50 to close $138.55 -5.25 (3.65%) and that hurt the DJIA. AAPL clearly helped NASDAQ, the only Index on the plus side at +35.50 (.46%) while the others all sank.  DJIA -81.37 (.32%), S&P 500 -2.93 (.10%), the Russell -1.54 (.09%) and DJ Transports -92.97 (.84%).  Market internals were soft with volume on NYSE 2:1 DOWN and A/D 9:5 lower.  Over on NASDAQ it wasn’t quite as bad but still negative 1.2:1 and 13:15 respectively.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, AAPL was clearly the star today easily moving over $200 and heading toward $1Trillion market cap, but others, like SODA were also solid with an earnings beat that sent it up $23 (26.35%).  HBI was a miss and was punished with a gap down and finish -$4.30 (19.3%), CAKE missed and was down slightly last night but this morning in the bright light of day, really got hit for $6.97 (12.4%). BIDU was rocked by the announcement by GOOGL that they were going to offer a “censored version” for search and BIDU finished -19.11 (7.73%) on the competition. AKAM beat but didn’t quite live up to expectations and after trading as low as $69.38, closed on the high of the day -3.63 (4.82%).  TRIP missed on revenue and is trading $50.10 -7.55 (13%).  Another group that was under pressure all day was the gaming (not electronic) stocks with CZR – 1.67 (14.7%) based on guidance for the second half, and WYNN with a shortfall in Macao traded -6.79 before the number and -13.35 (8.49%) after the report.  Others in the group were also hurt with MGM -3.52 (11.3%).  RACE suffered when its new CEO was quoted as saying he thought the late Sergio Marchionne’s expectations might have been “a bit aspirational” and it closed -14.62 (11%).  EXAS (you know, the company that will send you their non-invasive colonoscopy kit) beat on the size of their loss and while revenues were +78%, missed expectations and is trading $43.87 -15.25 (25.8%).

 

Last, but clearly not least we have the numbers from TSLA.  They reported a slightly bigger loss than expected but better than expected revenues.  The stock closed $300.84 and immediately traded down to $290 before the number for cash on hand came in at $2Billion, well over expectations and the stock turned up and is currently (4:53 pm)  trading @ $317.17 +17 (5.7%).  The question that has arisen recently about Mr. Musk’s temperament and degree of focus brings to mind another CEO who lost sight of the ball while talking to investors, analysts and anyone who would listen.  Patrick Byrne of OSTK, who had plenty of blame about his company’s troubles, including a comment about an evil “Sith Master” and watched the stock go from $70 to $7 before finally stabilize and move from $10 to $90 on participation in Bitcoin marketing participation.  The concern arose based on Musk’s comments on the last earnings call and recent tweets to any negative comments.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, as a group, this often becomes a “hiding place” for investors since it is considered a defensive sector.  Today they were HIGHER with CELG +.09, BIIB +8.63, REGN +2.97, ISRG +8.08, ABBV +2.26, MYL +.18, TEVA -.26, PRGO -1.24, GILD +.02, VRTX +2.79, BHC +.13, INCY -.95, ICPT +.64, INNT -.01, and IBB +.68 (.58%).

 

RETAIL was LOWER with M -1.34, JWN -2.06, KSS -3.40, DDS -.97, SHLD +.01, JCP -.04, WMT -1.12, HD -1.17, TJX -.87, TGT -1.73, DKS -.64, and the brands followed with RL -6.13 (4.5%), UAA -.82, LULU +.51, KORS -.97, GPS -.96 and XRT -.58(1.17%).

 

FAANG, the group was mostly HIGHER today with GOOGL +19.30, AMZN +11.41, FB -1.13, NVDA +1.61, TSLA +17, BIDU -19.38 (discussed above), BABA -4.42, BOX -.06 (we own the BOX 8/25 calls at $ .60 and they closed $ .45), IBM -1.53, and XLK +.90 (1.26%).

 

FINANCIALS, were MIXED with GS-1.73, JPM +.75, BAC +.34, AIG -.36, C +.05, PNC +.17, WFC +.21 and XLF -.05 (.18%).

 

OIL, $67.66 -1.10 after breaking back above $70 yesterday and having the highest close since we traded over $72 and retraced back to 66.50, we gave back almost all of the gain on supply news today. We have another high at $70.60 and a good deal of supply just above $71.00.  We came all the way back to the support under $68 before I give up on a move to challenge $72-74. (We were a buyer of MRO 8/21 calls and I added 60% more down at $ $45 our average is about $ .57 and they were closed out on stop @ $ .64). The stocks were LOWER with XLE -1.12 (1.45%).

 

METALS, $1,227.6 -6 the gold failed to hold over $1,230 and broke down and traded $1,210 Friday but rallied to close $1225, after the rally to 1,235 we failed to move higher today.  If we don’t bounce right here I will have to close out the GLD 8/117 calls bought yesterday. Copper collapsed today closing $2.7475 -.0840. without solid economic news I think this can trade back to the $2.65 -2.70 range, back to contract lows.

 

BITCOIN closed $7,530 -180.  After trading down to 7,850 yesterday, on the news that the SEC denied another application for a Bitcoin ETF, it rallied back to $8,100.  After the excitement of the last 3 weeks and the rally from $6,300 to 8,500 we’re back to the “show me” stage to see if Bitcoin can climb back thru the resistance between 8,500 and $10,000.  As I said last night, a break of 7.850 makes support at $7,400 very important.  If we break $7,300 then $6,800 has to hold or we will see new contract lows.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 7/31/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING August 1st

Is August going to be the Worst Month of the Year

AAPL Earnings BEAT BIG

 

 

The market got a lift about 10 minutes before the open with some trade headlines that there were some good signs surrounding NAFTA and the futures jumped.  We carried over into the morning as we slowly but surely built up to +184 at the highs. We closed with the DJIA +108.36 +.43%), NASDAQ +41.79 (.55%), S&P 500 +13.69 (.49%), the Russell +17.67 (1.07%) and the DJ Transports the biggest gainer +143.57 (1.3%). Internals were positive with volume 3:2 UP and A/D showing roughly 2:1 UP on both NYSE and NASDAQ.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, were LL who missed on margins and was -5.03 (20.6%), this was the company that collapsed from $120 to $11 on the Chinese product that didn’t meet US standards.  NAKD was up 1.86 (44.9%) on a deal with CVS to carry the Heidi Klum brand of products.  FCEA is being bought by BAM and was +1.95 (8.5%) on the news.  Today’s move was only half the story since the stock moved up from $19 when it was rumored.  LBY beat and increased capital expenditures and was rewarded with a 34.95% move to close $9.58 +2.48.  GDS Holdings (GDS) continues to be under the microscope for “non-arm’s length” transactions and is down from $46 last month to close today $21.83 -12.92 (37%). IGPG, a semi producer was down from $225 to close -60.26 (26.87%) on a miss on numbers and a decline in margins. After the close we had CAKE with a small miss on revenues and earnings, but had already guided lower and the stock traded as low as $50.50 and is currently $51.30 -4.73 (8.4%).

 

The big news with the most importance was the AAPL beat on all possible metrics.  Iphone sales were not only solid, but the average blended price came in well ahead of all expectations while the IPad and Mac numbers were great.  Most important number to me was the “service” side of the business not only growing over 28% (after a special charge) but also now is just over 18% of revenues.  This is a clear sign that the tech trade is still alive and well on Wall Street, and AAPL is clearly not expensive.   The stock closed $190.29 +.38 but is now trading $197.20 +6.91 (3.6%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, as a group, this often becomes a “hiding place” for investors since it is considered a defensive sector.  Today they were HIGHER with CELG +1.18, BIIB+2.91, REGN -3.50, ISRG +5.19, ABBV +.78, MYL +.65, TEVA +.03, PRGO +.38, GILD +1.51, VERTX +.63, BHC +.14, INCY -2.04, ICPT +2.22, INNT -.27 (4.9%) and IBB +2.36 (2.07%).

 

 

RETAIL, this group was MIXED with M -.54, JWN -.08, KSS +.13, DDS -1.72 (2.1%), SHLD +.004, JCP -.01, WMT +.35, HD +.24, TJX +.49, TGT -.53, DKS +.38, while the brands dis a little better with LULU +1.11, NKE +1.51, KORS +.56, and XRT +.07%).

 

FAANG, the group was mostly HIGHER today with GOOGL +.86, AMZN +4.85, while AAPL reported after the close an is +$7.34, FB +1.85, NFLX+3.94, NVDA +1.37, TSLA +8.33 (and about to report), BIDU -.66, BABA +2.42, IBM -.79, BOX +.36 (we bought the 8/26 calls @ $ .57-.60 and they closed $ .60), and XLK +.52(.72%).

 

FINANCIALS, were LOWER with GS-1.55, JPM -2.01, BAC-.47, AIG +.27, C -.49, PNC -.53, WFC -1.19, and XLF -.24 (.85%).

 

OIL, $68.76 -1.37 after breaking back above $70 yesterday and having the highest close since we traded over $72 and retraced back to 66.50, we gave back almost all of the gain on supply news today. We have another high at $70.60 and a good deal of supply just above $71.00.  We came all the way back to the support under $68 before I give up on a move to challenge $72-74. (We were a buyer of MRO 8/21 calls and I added 60% more down at $ $45 our average is about $ .57 and they closed .87). The stocks were LOWER but not as bad as I would expect with MRO closing unchanged.  XLE was - .14 (.18%).

 

METALS, $1,233 +2.10 the gold failed to hold over $1,230 and broke down and traded $1,210 Friday but rallied to close $1225, yesterday was a narrow range day and today we bounced off $1,225 and moved up to close up on the day. We still have a hard road to move over 1,240-50. Copper had a strong day closing $2.8315 + .0395.  If solid economic news continues I think this can trade back to the $2.95-3.00 range, but I’m still in the “show me” camp, the GDP number on Friday had no lasting effect.

 

BITCOIN closed $7,710 -390.  After trading down to 7,850 yesterday,on the news that the SEC denied another application for a Bitcoin ETF, it rallied back to $8,100.  After the excitement of the last 3 weeks and the rally from $6,300 to 8,500 we’re back to the “show me” stage to see if Bitcoin can climb back thru the resistance between 8,500 and $10,000.  As I said last night, I suspect most of the rally and the good news is spent and there will need to be some movement toward greater acceptance. It’s hard to not be impressed with a $3,000 move off the lows in just under 3 weeks, but today’s break of $7,850 makes support at $7,400 very important.  

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

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After the close 7/30/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 31st

FAANG Continues Lower

 

 

The market today was lower from the start, and it only got worse as the day went on.  The DJIA saw the upside early based on CAT earnings, with the stock trading up in the premarket to $146.70 +4.14 before crossing over unchanged around 3:00 and finishing the day near the lows @ $139.75 -2.81 (1.97%), a shift in the DJIA of from +35 to -20.  Among the other biggest losers were BA from + 2 to close -9.67 (2.68%), an almost 100- point reversal in the DJIA, V -4.23 (3%) and 30 Dow, and AXP -3 (2.89%) and 20 Dow points on a day that the rest of the financials were higher.  AXP had raised rates on foreign exchange to business clients without notice and is now trying to explain the action. So the indexes finished with the DJIA -144.23 (.57%), NASDAQ -107.42 (1.39%), S&P 500 -16.22 (.58%), the Russell-10.12 (.61%), and the DJ Transports -23.10 (.21%).  Market internals on the NYSE were 3:2 UP volume and 1:1 A/D, while they were both 2:1 DOWN at NASDAQ.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, the big news of the day was the continued, and in some cases worse action in the FAANG stocks.  The psychological distress from these stocks played a big part of the market action.  I’ll review then later in the sector update.  ON reported a beat both top and bottom line, and issued upbeat guidance this morning but after trading up $1 early finished 22.36 -.79 (3.41%), TSN warned based on tariffs and after already being down from $72 last month furthered the fall to close 58.72 -4.84 (7.6%), USFD announced an acquisition this morning citing that the deal would be provide $55 million in cost savings, but then reported their own Q2 below expectations and the stock gaped down 4 and continued lower to close 33.51 -7.09 (17.65%).

 

On a positive note, one of my favorite companies, CTL reported receiving authorization to operate under a GSA government wide acquisition contract (GWAC) for $50Billion. This gives them access to government dealings, something that they have done through their Level-3 merger partner and now on a go-forward basis.  I have been very bullish on this one and we have traded the options for the last 18 months.  I have written up this company several times, and all this good news comes from a company that pays you almost 12% to hold it.  Besides that, the company announced last week that they were having a bigger piece of their dividend is being reclassified as return of capital, making it tax-free until you sell the stock, allowing for turning income to long-term capital gains, with the advantage of the lower rates.  We bought the CTL 8/19.50 calls @ $ .24 today.  They closed $ .28 bid. A move to its recent high of just over $20 would give is a 400% gain.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, as a group, this often becomes a “hiding place” for investors since it is considered a defensive sector.  Today they were mixed to lower with CELG +2.30, BIIB -8.94, REGN +3.95, ISRG -16.15 (3.11%), ABBV +.79, MYL +.44, TEVA +.61, PRGO +1.65, GILD -.49, VRTX +2.32, BHC-.81 (3.6%), INCY +2.06, ICPT -.03, INNT -1.41 (20.7%), and IBB -1.28 (1.11%).

 

 

RETAIL, this group was higher with M +.77, JWN +.52, KSS +1.22, DDS +1.54, SHLD -.08 (4.2%), JCP +.06, WMT +.75, HD +.44, TJX unchanged, TGT +1.08 while the brands were a little weaker with RL -.16, UAA -.58, LULU -1.20, NKE -.93, KORS -.54 and XRT +.22 (.45%).

 

 

FAANG, the destruction of equity in this group continued today with GOOGL-23.79, AMZN -35.97, AAPL -1.21 (REPORTS TOMORROW), FB -3.64, NFLX -20.10 (5.6%), TSLA-6.96, NVDA -8.62 (3.42%), BIDU -4.53, BABA-4.85, IBM +.34, BOX -1.30 (5.27%), and XLK -1.21 (1.68%).

 

FINANCIALS, were HIGHER with GS +1.72, JPM +.62, BAC +.27, AIG +.58, C +.60, PNC +.96, WFC -.14 and XLF +.02 (.07%).

 

OIL, $70.13 +1.44 after a series of higher highs and lows we broke back above $70 today.  This is the highest close since we traded over $72 and retraced back to 66.50.  We have another high at $70.60 and a good deal of supply just above $71.00.

It will take a close under $68 before I give up on a move to challenge $72-74. (We were a buyer of MRO 8/21 calls and I added 60% more down at $ $45 our average is about $ .57 and they closed .87). The stocks were HIGHER with CVX +2.02, APC +1.59, BP -.06, COP +.82, APA +1.06, PSX +3.21, MPC +.51, MRO +.51, RIG +.64, OAS +.32, HES +1.07, NE +.21, OXY +.13, XOM -.22, and XLE +.63 (.82%).

 

METALS, $1,221.30 -1.70 the gold failed to hold over $1,230 and broke down and traded $1,210 Friday but rallied to close $1225, yesterday was a start and we worked a little higher, but we gave it all up today. We have now had some support around the 1,210 area, that may hold, even though it looks like a rough road until we can move above $1,250. Copper had a quiet day closing $2.7920 -.01.  If solid economic news continues I think this can trade back to the $2.95-3.00 range, but I’m still in the “show me” camp, the GDP number on Friday had no lasting effect.

 

BITCOIN closed $8,100 -102.  After trading down to 7,850 on the news that the SEC denied another application for a Bitcoin ETF, it rallied back to $8,100.  After the excitement of the last 3 weeks and the rally from $6,300 to 8,500 we’re back to the “show me” stage to see if Bitcoin can climb back thru the resistance between 8,500 and $10,000.  I suspect most of the rally and the good news is spent and there will need to be some movement toward greater acceptance. It’s hard to not be impressed with a $3,000 move off the lows in just under 3 weeks.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 7/26/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 27TH

AMZN Beats !!

FB Records Biggest MarketCap Loss Ever

 

 

The market today was yet another a phenomenal swing with the split personality that has been evident between the DJIA and S&P 500 and the tech heavy NASDAQ. The DJIA was never down, opening higher by $50 and continued to gain based on solid earnings and strength from BA, DIS, JNJ, MMM, and TRV.  So, at the end of the day we were higher in the DJIA +112.97 (.44%), NASDAQ -80.05 (1.01%), S&P 500 -8.63 (.30%), the Russell +10.16 (.60%) and DJ Transports -1.06 (.001%).  The internals seemed in line with the direction and breath with NYSE 4:3 volume and 9:5 A/D and NASDAQ 1:1 but 7:8 negative respectively.

 

It’s hard to get overwhelmingly excited about a slight beat, but the AMZN left no real question about its ability to make money.  With a slight miss on revenues (posted first) the stock traded 1706 -100 and then the earnings beat (100%) and it traded to 1839.  How’s that for a 1-minute price range?  The last is 1,870 +65.34.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, Premarket we had news of a takeover of SVU being bought for $2.9 B by UNFI and SVU 32.17 +12.72 (65%) while UNFI went the other way to $34.48 -6.70 (16%). A big beat by AMD sent it higher by 1.21 premarket but it only got stronger all day and finished +2.30 (14.33%).  MCD also beat but the metrics weren’t what the market was looking for and it closed -2.75 (1.73%).  The NXPI /QCOM deal finally officially died and NXPI was -5.56 (5.65%) while QCOM announced a buyback and went the other way +4.16 (7%).  TAL Education, TAL missed and finished -4.93 (12%) as dis NLSN closing 21.11 -7.46 (25.23%).  ARNC, mentioned last week here at $19 as the aerospace piece of the Alcoa spinoff has received positive attention from several private equity funds finished n$21.28 +2.12 (11%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, as mentioned here several times in the past week with its Alzheimer’s drug has kept the marketplace in a constant state of confusion gave trial results that were split between the low and high-dosage studies and after going from 288 to 388 settled back to close the day $345.50 -38.33 (9.99%).  The rest of the group was mixed to lower with the IBB -1.33 (1.11%).

 

 

RETAIL, this group was mixed after UAA reported a miss on increased revenue, based on its restructuring charges and the market liked what it saw and the stock finished +.96 (4.55%).  Several of the brands were higher with RL-.50, KORS +.03, GPS +.08, NKE +1.29, and LULU -.54. Retailers were lower with M -.67, JWN -.58, KSS-.85, DDS -.78, SHLD -.02, JCP +.01, WMT +.43 HD -1.60, TJX -.18, TGT -.26.  XRT +.46 (.93%).

 

 

FAANG, In case you live under a rock, this group was mixed to lower today with GOOGL +13.85, AMZN -55 in the regular session and +65 in the late trade, AAPL -.24, FB -40.35 (18.5%), NVDA +4.33, TSLA -.85, BIDU -.56, BABA -2.18, IBM +.08, BOX -.03 (we own the 8/28 calls at $ .80 and they closed .58 today), and XLK -1.14 (1.54%).

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed with GS +.46, JPM -.19, BAC -.11, AIG +.67, C -.28, PNC -.14, WFC +.08 and XLF +.01 (.04%).

 

OIL, $69.61 + .31 after holding above 68.50, we traded up and broke up passed 69.31 highs from Monday and went as high as $69.70.  Today was a short range day of $1.00 closing slightly higher. I continue to stand by that comment and I still do not expect a close below $66, and we now have some overhead around $70.25-71.00.  (We were a buyer of MRO 8/21 calls and I added 60% more down at $ $45 our average is about $ .57 and they closed .97). the support now looks to me to be 68.35 – 69, with a move to $70-71 likely.  The stocks were mixed and the XLE +1.06 (1.39%).

 

METALS, $1,223.7 -6.10 the gold failed to hold over $1,230 and broke down and traded $1,210 Friday but rallied to close $1225, yesterday was a start and we worked a little higher, but we gave it all up today. We have now had some support around the 1,210 area, that may hold, even though it looks like a rough road until we can move above $1,250. Copper had another slightly higher day today but traded with both a lower high and higher low closing $2.8180 +.005.  If solid economic news continues I think this can trade back to the $2.95-3.00 range, but I’m still in the “show me” camp, but tomorrow’s GDP number may give some guidance.

 

BITCOIN closed $8,255 +135.  It’s hard to not be impressed with a $3,000 move off the lows in just under 3 weeks.  However, we had a short range day with a minor gain, and it looks to me like the next $500 will be to the downside.  There seems to be plenty of support around 7,500 and resistance just over 8750 all the way to 9,500.  Quite a ride…

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 7/25/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 26TH

R.I.P. Sergio

 

The stepping down yesterday of Sergio Marchionne for health reasons and then his death overnight was a blow for the auto industry.  He was beloved and respected by all involved and there were plenty of industry players with only the best things to say about him.  What he did with saving Fiat and Chrysler was quite a feat, taking two losing companies and turning them into a viable growing concern, unlike Eddie Lampert, who took two crappy retailers and turning them into one really crappy failing concern.

 

The market today was another a phenomenal swing with the split personality that has been evident in the plus DJIA positive NASDAQ/S&P with the DJIA – 130 at the low while the NASDAQ / S&P higher, but in the last hour or so the word of a positive result from the EU / Trump trade meeting the markets began to trade together and volume picked up on the upside.  At the close the DJIA +173.16(.68%), NASDAQ +91.47 (1.17%), S&P 500 +25.67 (.91%), the Russell +5.01 (.30&) and the DJ Transports ahead by 244.70 (2.3%).  Also notable was the pickup in the internals with the last hour numbers showing big jump in volume and participation.  On the NYSE we went from 225 up, 184 down to finish 506:275 in volume, A/D 15:12 to close 9:5.  NASDAQ 2:1 volume, a 4:1 change in the last hour and A/D 1.5:1 from barely positive last hour.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, Tonight’s FB news is a real problem.  The stock closed at a new all-time high at $217.50 +7.52 (3.6%) before the earnings report.  The initial response was a decline to the $194-196 range, and it rallied back above $200.  And then the conference call started, and things went from bad to worse.  Every comment created another downdraft, first to 180, and then 170 and finally made a low (so far) to 164.30 – 53.20 (over 25%). In case you’re curious, there are no “circuit-breakers” for volatility in extended hours trading.  I have long been concerned with the attitude of the company and its management about the “missteps” that involve security for data and I have also referred to Mr. Zuckerberg’s international “apology tour” in which he reads the same statement to each group whether it be Congress, Senate, or EU authorities making promises it won’t happen again.  The real problem is that it isn’t going to be limited to FB shareholders, all of which were satisfied with the performance of their stock, but the number of funds and ETFs that have the bigger positions and will be forced to liquidate to meet their obligation of keeping their weighting of securities in line with their mission statement and bylaws.  This decline will ripple through the FAANG group and effect much more than just FB.  

 

BIO/PHARMA, as mentioned last night, BIIB was a feature based on great results on their Alzheimer’s drug, up from just over $300 to 388, got the results after the close today and ran straight to $409 before it retraced a big piece of that advance and was trading 339 at the time of this writing.  The rest of the group was mostly higher with the IBB -.18(.15%).

 

RETAIL, this group was higher across the board with M +.49, JWN +.89, KSS +1.03, DDS +.62, SHLD +.02, WMT-.46, HD -1.99, TJX +.66, TGT +.14 and the XRT +.45 (.91%).

 

FAANG, stocks were higher and most got crushed after the FB debacle with GOOGL -1.16 but 20 off the close, AMZN +5.76 but 25 off the highs, AAPL +.06, NFLX -1.45 and $8 off the close, NVDA +.39 5 off, TSLA +4.50 7 off, BIDU +3.67 3 off, BABA +5.00 4 off, IBM -.78, BOX -.27 $1 off (we own the 8/28 calls at $ .80 and they closed .55 today), and XLK -.32, 1.20 off (.44%).

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed with GS -1.13, JPM +.52, BAC +.10, AIG -.59, PNC -.44, C +.35, WFC -.26 and XLF +.08 (.29%).

 

OIL, $69.30 +80 after holding 68-25, we traded up and broke up passed 69.31 highs from Monday and went as high as $69.70.  I continue to stand by that comment and I still do not expect a close below $66, and we now have some overhead around $70.25-71.00.  (We were a buyer of MRO 8/21 calls and I added 60% more down at $ $45 our average is about $ .57 and they closed .94). the support now looks to me to be 68.35 – 69, with a move to $70-71 likely.  The stocks were higher across the board and the XLE +.63 (.83%).

 

METALS, $1,232.30 +6.80 the gold failed to hold over $1,230 and broke down and traded $1,210 Friday but rallied to close $1225, but today was a start and we worked a little higher. We have now had some support around the 1,210 area, that may hold, even though it looks like a rough road until we can move above $1,250. Copper had another strong day today trading as high as $2.87 and closing $2.8175.  If solid economic news continues I think this can trade back to the $2.95-3.00 range, but I’m still in the “show me” camp.

 

BITCOIN closed $8,115 -117.  It’s hard to not be impressed with a $3,000 move off the lows in just under 3 weeks.  After trading $8,500 we backed down a bit but there is obviously support from 7500 with the next area of resistance just over 8750 all the way to 9,500.  Quite a ride…

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

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After the close 7/24/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 25TH

Biggest Week for Earnings, Continued !!

 

The market today was a split affair with only the DJIA +195.82 (.79%) really making any real headway.  The NASDAQ made a new all-time high but turned down in the afternoon and closed -12.24 (.16%) and S&P 500 +13.42 (.48%) after being higher by $24. Further damage was seen in the Russell -18.22(1.07 and the DJ Transports -164.98 (1.5%).  Market internals bore no relationship to the gains in the DJIA with the volume barely 4:3 and A/D 13:15 down.  Over on the NASDAQ it was worse with both Volume and A/D were 2:1 negative.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, again, earnings were in the forefront with HOG reporting a better than expected number and traded +3.01 (7.23%) but is still well below February highs over $56.  VZ reported early and beat and finished the day +.76(1.5%) while T reported after the close and after closing 31.68 +.68 it is now 31.31 -37.  There was also good news for holders of BIIB, as well as its test patients, with a beat on earnings and some positive results for its Alzheimer’s drug and it traded as high as $383, and closed +14.71 (4.1%).  On 7/6 it reported its progress on the drug and the stock was up almost 59 (20%).  Also after the close IRBT beat and although it was lower by 2.06 (2.8%) it jumped $14.37 (20%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, as mentioned above BIIB set the stage and this group was higher with CELG +1.37, REGN +6.56, ISRG +3.35, ABBV +2.14, MYL +.60, TEVA _.01, PRGO +.02, GILD +.32, VRTX -1.68, BHC -.05, INCY +.03, ICPT -6.53 (6.9%), INNT +1.37 (25.7%) and IBB -.27 (.23%).  

 

 

RETAIL, this group was lower across the board with M-.05, JWN -.58, KSS-1.17, DDS -2.47, SHLD -.10 (4.65%), JCP -.04, WMT +.33, HD -.24, TJX -.55, TGT +.68, DKS-1.09, FL-2.10, URBN-.83, ANF -1.60(6.25%), RL-1.91, UAA -.89, LULU-.97, NKE -1.06, KORS-.35, GPS -.51 and XRT -.82 (1.64%).

 

 

FAANG, stocks were mixed with the big 4 higher and GOOGL +47.15, AMZN +25.40, AAPL +1.30, and FB +3.71.  The rest were a mixed bunch with NFLZ -6.13, NVDA -1.01, TSLA -6.20, BIDU -3.78, BABA +2.14, IBM +.67, BOX -.74(we own the 8/28 calls at $ .80 and they closed .46 today), and XLK +.40 (.55%).

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with the increase in the 10-yr., helping to improve the yield curve with GS +1.75, JPM +.56, BAC +.04, AIG +.30, C +.86, PNC -1.02, WFC +.35 and XLF +.08 (.29%).

 

OIL, $68.52 +.63 after trading up to 69.05 we came back down to close near the midrange of the day.  I continue to stand by that comment and I still do not expect a close below $66, and (Yesterday was a buyer of MRO 8/21 calls and I added 60% more down at $ $45 our average is about $ .57 and they closed .80). the range now looks to me to be 69.31 – 67.00 with a move to $70-71 likely.  The stocks were higher across the board and the XLE +.94 (1.26%).

 

METALS, $1,225.50 -.10 the gold failed to hold over $1,230 and broke down and traded $1,210 Friday but rallied to close $12.31, but today was another short range” day closing just lower again.  We have now had some support around the 1,210 area, but could fail here and try $1,180.  Copper finally had a strong day today trading as high as $2.83 and closing $2.8105 + .064.  If solid economic news continues I think this can trade back to the $2.95-3.00 range, but I’m still in the “show me” camp.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $8,232 +447.  It’s hard to not be impressed with a $3,000 move off the lows in just under 3 weeks.  I said that there was some 7,250-7500 with the next area of resistance just over 8750-8800.  Quite a ride…

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 7/23/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 24TH

Biggest Week for Earnings !!


The market finally breached the 2800 level for the S&P 500 and we really haven’t seen anything special from any of the indexes.  Today begins the biggest earning week with over 35% of the S&P reporting.  We did very little today with the DJIA +10.32 (.04%), NASDAQ +15.34 (.20%), S&P 500 +4.98 (.18%) and the Russell +3.63 (.21%) and the DJ Transports +72.48 (.67%).  The internals were not exactly weak, but also not strong with NYSE and NASDAQ volume barely 1:1 and A/D negative 3:4 and 7:7 respectively.


SECTORS:

Other names in the news, GOOGL was the first to report and the number was met with a 5% rally 1,285 +74.  In other news, LPNT agreed to a buyout and finished the day at $64.90 +17 (35%), HCLP, provider of Fracking sands and logistics announced an acquisition, increased payout and a secondary and was 13.80 +2.95 (27%) on the news. PETS missed and was punished and while it closed near the highs of the day it was still -4.78 (11.9%). HAL missed by a penny but expectation was for a beat and the stock fell by 3.67 (8.12%) and was the worst S&P issue until WHR reported after the close and missed and guided lower citing US$ issues as well as problems with the EU market.  The stock is currently trading -12 (7.89%).  HAL reported and had a margin issue and although the oils have been higher all year, it has fallen from a high of 57 in January to close today $41.54 -3.66 (8.1%).


BIO/PHARMA, was mixed with the rest of the market with CELG +.04, BIIB -1.88, REGN -.90, ISRG -.06, ABBV +.34, MYL +.21, TEVA +.41, PRGO +.21, GILD +.13, VRTX -.42, BHC +.26, INCY -.45, ICPT +.65, INNT -.78 (12.6%) and down from a high of $50 in April and 29 earlier this month, and IBB -.05 (0%).


RETAIL, this group was higher with M+.92, JWN+.71, KSS +.76, DDS +.32, SHLD (still terminal) -.07, 3.1%, JCP -.05, WMT -.39, HD +.20, TJX +.78, TGT +1.04, DKS -.20, and the brand were slightly lower with URBN +.84, ANF +.16, RL -.05, UAA -.07, LULU -.16, NKE -.36, KORS +.15 and XRT +.06 (.12%).


FAANG, with the exception of GOOGL, this group was a bit weak today with AMZN -8.22, AAPL -.30, FB +1.27, NFLX -1.40, NVDA -2.17, TSLA -12.68, BIDU -.89, BABA -.55, IBM -1.04, BOX +.40 (we own the 8/28 calls at $ .80 and they closed .65 today), and XLK +.23 (.32%).

FINANCIALS, were higher with the increase in the 10-yr., helping to improve the yield curve.  I found this pretty interesting since a couple of weeks ago a move to 3% caused these stocks to plummet.  But today they were higher with GS +2.40, JPM +2.75, BAC +.64, AIG +.27, C +.90, PNC +1.70, WFC +1.26, and XLF +.38 (1.4%).

OIL, $67.89 -.37 after trading up to 69.31 we came back down to close near the low of the day.  I continue to stand by that comment and I still do not expect a close below $66, and (Yesterday was a buyer of MRO 8/21 calls and I added 60% more down at $ $45 our average is about $ .57 and they closed .64).  The stocks were mixed with CVX -.42, APC +.40, BP -.16, COP +.40, APA +.13, PSX +.14, MPC +.31, MRO +.10, RIG -.05, OAS +.06, HES +.31, NE -.12, OXY -.53, XOM -.05 and XLE -.25 (.33%).

METALS, $1,225.60 -5.50 the gold failed to hold over $1,230 and broke down and traded $1,210 Friday but rallied to close $12.31, but today was an “inside” day closing lower again.  We have now had some support around the 1,200 area, but could fail here and try $1,180.  As I said last week, that I’d like the trade right here and will probably be a buyer of the 8/117 calls if we stabilize here for a day or two. That still holds, but I have a “show me” attitude about being a buyer. Copper continues weak collapsing to new contract lows at $2.6735 and closing today at $2.7465 -.0095.


BITCOIN closed $7,785 +440.  After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $5975.  As I’ve been saying for a while, a short term rally of 20% or so could come at any time, and we’ve surpassed that and went to 7,625, a move of 30%.  I said that there was some resistance between 7650 – 7750, but we cut through that, and support is now $6500-6700 with the next area of resistance just over 9,000.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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he Winner on FOX!!

 

Just like yesterday we started the day with the futures lower but for the first time in a while we had a small rally and then headed lower to make new lows on the day.  It was a battle all day, but in fact, this is the type of low volume back and forth that we expect during the summer.  Unfortunately we closed near the low -134.79(.53%), NASDAQ -29.14(.37%), S7P 500 -11.13 (.40%), with the Russell +9.44 (.56%) the only gainer and the DJT -3.33(.03%). The internals were pretty close to even in the volume in both places with A/D 1.7:1 UP on the NYSE and 8:7 on NASDAQ.  New highs again outnumbered new lows 2:1 and 3:1 respectively.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, as mentioned above Disney is the winner of the FOX sweepstakes over CMCSA, and both stocks were higher on the news.  There was plenty of earnings news, as EBAY missed and was -3.84 (10.13%), TRV -4.82 (3.71%) on “catastrophic losses,” PM, the international side of the old Phillip Morris traded as low as 76.52 but closed 80.90 – just 1.25 (1.52%). AXP also disappointed and was -2.81 (2.73%).  After the close we had MSFT, a beat and +4, and the biggest loser, SKX was +.60 @33.25 but was a big miss and is currently $24.75 -8.50 (25%).

 

There was also an IPO of another Canadian Pot deal.  TLRY was priced @ $17.00 and closed $22.95 +5.95 (35%). The CEO was interviewed and was very impressive.

 

BIO/PHARMA, was lower again today with only ISRG +11.09(2.1%) and REGN +1.76 the standouts.  CELG -.67, BIIB-.40, ABBV-4.45 (4.7%), MYL -.42, TEVA-.47, PRGO-.59, GILD-.07, VRTX-1.01, BHC -.36, INNT -.20, and to my surprise, IBB +.12.

 

RETAIL, this group was higher with M+1.26, JWN +.97, KSS +2.10, DDS -1.14, SHLD +.04, JCP +.12, WMT-.44, TJX +1.07, TGT +1.76, DKS +.86, with the brands higher, with the notable exception of SKX, URBN +.54, RL +1.57, UAA +.28, NKE +.36, KORS +.88, GPS +.55, and XRT +.55 (1.10%).

 

 

FAANG, the group was soft again with GOOGL -11.54, AMZN -23.42, AAPL +1.74, FB -1.02, NFLX -9.13, NVDA +1.09, TSLA -3.25, BIDU -7.02, BABA -3.25, IBM +4.97 on carryover from last night’s earnings beat, BOX -.49, and XLK -.28 (.44%).

 

FINANCIALS, were lower giving back some of the gains with GS -1.64, JPM -1.60, BAC -.46, AIG -1.39, C -.76, PNC -2.41, WFC -.34, and XLF -.42 (1.5%).

 

OIL, $68.10 +.34*, after trading down to support around $67 for the third day and rallied to close solidly higher. I continue to stand by that comment and I still do not expect a close below $66, and (Yesterday was a buyer of MRO 8/21 calls and I added 60% more down at $ $45 our average is about $ .57 and they closed .74).  The stocks were mixed with CVX +.14, APC -.42, BP +.35, COP -.46, APA +.09, PSX -.30, MPC +.44, MRO +.16, RIG -.20, OAS +.18, HES +.36, OXY +.02, XOM -.24 and XLE +.02 (.03%).

*      Contract roll forward

 

METALS, $1,224 -3.90 the gold failed to hold over $1,230 and broke down and traded $1,210 today before rallying to close down just 3.90.  We have now had some support around the 1,200 area, but could fail here and try $1,180. I like the trade right here and will probably be a buyer of the 8/117 calls if we stabilize here for a day or two.  Copper continues weak collapsing to new contract lows at $2.6735 and closing today at $2.6965 - .0645.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $7,465 +188.  After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $5975.  As I’ve been saying for a while, a short term rally of 20% or so could come at any time, and we’ve surpassed that and went to 7,625, a move of 30%.  There is some resistance between 7650 – 7750.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 7/18/2018

 

FOR TRADING JULY 19TH

DJT Plays Catch-up in a Big Way!!

 

Just like yesterday we started the day with the futures lower by a bit with the S&P 500 testing yesterday’s breakout over 2,800 and holding and by noon we were we were higher by 75 or so.  The big surprise was the Transports.  I have noted in this space that everyone continues to distrust the market because the transports have not confirmed the moves in the DJIA, or NASDAQ, or S&P 500.  Each time this has become the mantra the trannies have caught up and confirmed the move.  By the close the DJIA had been up as much as 95 band closed just off that level at +79.40 (.32%), NASDAQ -$ .68 (.01%), S&P 500 +6.07 (.22%) the Russell +4.60 (.27%) and the above mentioned DJT +239.10 (2.29%).  The minor net changes in all except the DJT were supported by close market internals at roughly 1:1 volume and 9:7 A/D.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, the Transports reversed their losses of Monday’s session and continued to outperform.  As I mentioned, this group continues to get the brunt of the “non-confirmation” complaints, but as of this afternoons close they are within .20% from same levels as the DJIA.  If anything, the Dow indexes (5.1-5.3% from highs) are the non-confirmation of the NASDAQ (at new highs) and the S&P500 within 1.9%.  The question is, should it matter what 50 stocks do in a market of thousands stocks?  The feature that has come to the forefront is the reemergence of Financials, definitely a group that has seemed undervalued by many metrics.  IBM had earnings and after the close ran up $5.50.

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed, evenly split with CELG +.18, BIIB +3.27, REGN +.55, ABBV -1.03, MYL -.45, TEVA +.40, PRGO -1.81, GILD-.10, VRTX -1.46, BHC -.07, INCY -.32, ICPT -.32, INNT -.63 (8.3%) and IBB -.14.

 

RETAIL, this group was mostly higher with M +.58, JWN +.76, KSS +1.40, DDS +.40, SHLD -.03, JCP +.05, WMT-.12, HD -.13, TJX +.32, TGT -.57, DKS +.70 and XRT +.17 (.34%).

 

 

FAANG, the group was soft again this afternoon with the news that the EU had fined GOOGL $5 billion for anti-trust, AMZN -2.83, AAPL -.92, FB -.61, NFLX -3.49, NVDA -1.69, TSLA +1.49, BIDU-1.29, BABA -1.74, IBM +5.50, BOX -.38 and XLK -.12.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS +.67, JPM +1.13, BAC +.12, AIG +.42, C +.58, PNC +.43, WFC +.01, and XLF +.44 (1.6%).

 

OIL, $68.95 +.87, after trading down to support around $67 for the second day and rallied to close solidly higher. I continue to stand by that comment and I still do not expect a close below $66, and (Yesterday was a buyer of MRO 8/21 calls and I added 60% more down at $ $45 our average is about $ .57 and they closed .70).  The stocks were mixed and XLE was + .05(.007%).

 

METALS, $1,227.90 +.05 the gold was trying to stabilizing around $1,245 to $1,235 but couldn’t hold that range and fell through to new recent lows.  We have now had some support around the 1220 area, but could fail here and try $1,200. I like the trade right here and will probably be a buyer of the 8/118 calls tomorrow.  Copper continues weak collapsing to new contract lows at $2.7170 and closing today at $2.76 -..0130.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $7,315 +90.  After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $5975.  As I’ve been saying for a while, a short term rally of 20% or so could come at any time, and that’s what we have had.  Also helping prices was a statement about a new ETF and a trading desk. We will have to try resistance around $7,600, but I’d be very surprised if we can run through there without some consolidation.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 7/17/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 18TH

 

We started the day with the futures lower by a bit with the S&P 500 having closed just under 2800 gave us a little “fake out” down 6 or so before turning higher and spending the day grinding higher.  The Senate appearance of the Fed chief went well, and as usual, the Trump “walk back” helped a bit.  It’s beginning to look and sound like the Zuckerberg “apology tour” with the same excuses and promises it won’t happen again.  But the bottom line is still a market that isn’t going down even when confronted by news.  The DJIA was +55.53 (.22%), NASDAQ +49.40 (.63%), S&P 500 +11.12 (.40%), Russell +8.66 (.52%) and although it had a very quiet, short-range and inside day, the DJ Transports were +27.61 (.26%).  The internals held up well with both NYSE and NASDAQ volume 5:3 up and the A/D 4:3 positive.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, the Transports reversed their losses of yesterday with a couple of good earnings reports from UAL up >36 during the day and then gained $2.59 in extended trade.  CSX tested support around $63 and closed +.44 but the earning pushed it up an additional $2.16 (3.35%).  Earlier in the day we had solid numbers from JNJ which gapped up $4 and finished the day mid-range but higher by $4.42 (3.54%).

 

There is no way to ignore the reversal in NFLX, down over $53 at the open on yesterday’s earnings disappointment but reversed immediately and while it was down $21 (5.24%) to rally all day and close right near the high.

 

GS had news today with their Q2 earnings but that was dwarfed by the announcement that David Solomon will replace Lloyd Blankfein as CEO in September and he will leave the Board at year end.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mostly higher with only a few down slightly on my list.  The gainers were CELG +.92, BIIB +1.95, REGN +.68, ISRG +5.72, PRGO +2.99, GILD +.24, VRTX +1.37, BHC +.06, INCY +.12, ICPT +2.63, INNT -.63 (7.8%), and IBB +1.01 (.86%).

 

 

RETAIL, this group was mostly higher with M +.08, JWN-.12, KSS +.28, SHLD +.02, JCP -.04, WMT +.74, HD +2.22, TJX +1.11, TGT +.06 (we bought some 7/77 calls @ $1.05 and  sold half @ $2.10 on our 100% Up Rule and closed  them out @$1.34), DKS -.09 and XRT +.59 (1.20%).

 

 

FAANG, the group reversed its initial soft ness and took off with GOOGL +16.75, AMZN +27.06, AAPL +.69, FB +2.96, TSLA +11.70, NVDA +6.65, BIDU +2.94, BABA +2.80, IBM -1.84, BOX +1.00 (3.9%), and XLK +.54 (.75%).

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed, but as mentioned on page 1 with GS +-.24, JPM +.12, BAC +.25, C -.07, AIG -.06, PNC +.59, WFC -.38, and XLF +.03 (.11%).

 

OIL, $68.08 +.02, after trading down to support around $67, the oil dug in and rallied to close on the plus side today. I continue to stand by that comment and I still do not expect a close below $66, and (I was a buyer of the of MRO 8/21 calls at $.65 and they closed .62).  The stocks were mostly lower and XLE was -.30 (.40%).

 

METALS, $1,227.30 -12.40 the gold was trying to stabilizing around $1,245 to $1,235 but couldn’t hold that range and fell through to new recent lows.  We have now had some support around the 1220 area, but could fail here and try $1,200. Copper continues weak collapsing to new contract lows at $2.7170 and closing today at $2.7470 -.0115.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $7,332 +662.  After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $5975.  As I’ve been saying for a while, a short term rally of 20% or so could come at any time, and that’s what we have had.  Also helping prices was a statement about a new ETF and a trading desk. We will have to try resistance around $7,600, but I’d be very surprised if we can run through there without some consolidation.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 7/16/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 17TH

Is it Over for NFLX??

 

We started the day with the futures sharply unchanged with weakness in the NASDAQ and unchanged in the S&P500 and a slight rise in the DJIA.  We did little during the day, but the financials finally came alive with the premarket earnings being positive.  However, unlike the JPM and GS action with their numbers, the BAC gains dragged the rest of the sector higher. The market internals were negative, but not dramatically so with the volume 3:2 down on both NYSE and NASDAQ and the A/D 3:4 on NASDAQ and 1:2 on NYSE. I have leaned hard on the fact that the market can’t continue higher without the financials, so today’s action is encouraging. The closes were moderately changed with DJIA +44.95 (.18%), NASDAQ -20.26 (.26%), S&P 500 -2.88 (1.0%) Russell -6.54 (.54%) and DJ Transports -110.89 (1.05%) with the feature being JBHT which opened higher and moved up 8 and turn lower by 4, before closing -.70.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, there more to the Transports with several on the list lower with FDX -3.57, LSTR -3.30, KEX -2.20, and NSC -4.23 to weigh the index down.  Surprisingly, the airlines, who were thought to be the weight were the only part showing any stability.

 

The reason for the downside in the NASDAQ seemed to be concern about the NFLX numbers, along with some more weakness in TSLA.  After the close the longs worst nightmare unfolded with a miss of 20% on versus the company’s own guidance for growth in subscribers came in at 5.1 million instead of their projected 6.2 million number.  The stock is trading $344.40 -56 or so (14%).  While I will be glad to get a chance to get into this one near $320 – 325, you have to remember that YTD the stock is still up from $190, or 80%.

 

Also of note today, CODA signed a pact with the Navy for R&D on a heads-up display for divers and after trading as high as $8.44, closed $6.15 +2.42 (65%).  ARNC is getting some interest from the private equity crowd.  The spinoff from the breakup of Alcoa (AA) has not performed well coming down from a split-adjusted high near $40 to be $19.20 +1.82 (10.47%) on that news. The other piece, AA, has done the opposite, being about $20 as of the split, to trade as high as $62 in April and closed today $47.41.

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was lower again today only BIIB +4.82 and VRTX +1.50 the only winners.  The rest were CELG -.58, REGN -2.89, ABBV -.63, MYL -.39, TEVA -.10, PRGO -86, GILD -.12, BHC (VRX name change), INCY -.08, ICPT -3.73, INNT, which I’ve discussed here before as thinly traded and without much available information, is doing an offering, and the market didn’t like it, so it opened this morning at $$16.86, traded down and closed $8.08 -15.62 (65.9%).  Got to be careful when the only news is usually the fact that it has been halted “due to volatility”.

 

 

RETAIL, this group was mostly higher with M +.61, JWN +.25, KSS +1.52, DDS +.05, SHLD -.08, JCP +.03, WMT -.06, HD +.19, TJX -.60, TGT -.91  (we bought some 7/77 calls @ $1.05 and  sold half @ $2.10 on our 100% Up Rule and they closed $ .89), DKS -.64 and XRT +.10 (.20%).

 

 

FAANG, the group was mixed to lower before the NFLX earnings came at the close.  That wasn’t the only problem, since today started “Prime Day” at AMZN, and unfortunately there were problems with “error messages” and specials that wouldn’t load properly.  AMZN, which traded as high as $1841.95 is currently $1802.40 -10.63 in late trading.  GOOGL -21.36, AAPL -1.29, FB -2.02, TSLA -11.52, NVDA -3.34, NFLX -51.99 (13.14%), BIDU -1.19, BABA -.44, IBM -.95, BA +4.21, BOX -.21and XLK -.74(1.02%).

 

FINANCIALS, were higher as mentioned on page 1 with GS +4.70, JPM +4.14, BAC +1.17, C +2.44, AIG +.36, PNC +3.52, WFC +1.63 and XLF +.48 (1.78%).

 

OIL, $68.06 -2.95, after trying to hold over $75 we fell last week on bearish drawdown numbers.  Today it was the rumor of Russia pumping more and Libya helping out that drove us lower.  If you look on page 9 of this week’s Weekly strategies you’ll find an updated chart as well as my comment.  I stand by that comment and I still do not expect a close below $66, and will be a buyer (probably) tomorrow if there is any follow-thru.

 

METALS, $1,239.70 -1.50 the gold was trying to stabilizing around $1,265 to $1,275 but couldn’t hold that range and fell through to new recent lows.  We have now had some support around the 1235 area, but could fail here and try $1,200. Copper continues weak collapsing to new contract lows at $2.7170 and closing 2.7645 -.0110.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,670 +483.  After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $5975.  As I’ve been saying for a while, a short term rally of 20% or so could come at any time, and that’s what we have had.  Also helping prices was a statement about a new ETF and a trading desk. The question now is do we consolidate, go higher, or just go into another downtrend?

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

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After the close 7/12/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

“Earnings on Financials Friday”

 

FOR TRADING JULY 13TH

 

We started the day with the futures solidly higher. As is usually the case, talk was about negotiating style and was tempered from the president’s bluster.  As I mentioned last night, this gets very old.  Are we supposed to sell positions or buy protection whenever Mr. Trump is due to speak, or over the weekends?  The markets should not be about the president, but rather he should be just a player on the world front. Fortunately we had a good day anyway with the DJIA +224.44 (.9150, NASDAQ (at a new all-time high) +107.31 (1.39%), S&500 +24.27 (.87%), the Russell +6.61 (.39%) and the DJ Transports +46.21 (.44%).  The market internals were positive with NYSE volume 1.8:1 and A/D 9:5, while NASDAQ we were slightly stronger at 2.7:1 and 3:2 positive.  New highs expanded to 2:1 on both.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, the airlines came back a bit when DAL reported a beat and was up premarket and finished +.89 (1.8%),  AAL recovered a bit after its 3% fall yesterday closing +.37 (1.03%).  The biggest loser for the day was AVGO at $209.94 -33.50 (13.76%) but closed on the highs after trading as low as $197.46.  The problem seems to be that no one is quite sure how the deal to buy CA $44.15 +6.94 (18.65%) figures in any plan to help the company move forward.  Another loser was LB owner of Victoria’s Secret and Bath and Body Works $32.34 -4.43 (12.05%) after a miss on same store sales and very poor guidance at Victoria’s Secret.  The issues are many since they are mall-based and have had little luck selling products at discounted levels.  The stock is down by over 50% since December.  

BIO/PHARMA, was higher with CELG +2.01, BIIB +3.63, REGN +1.21, ABBV +1.20, MYL +.74, TEVA -.02, PRGO -1.10, GILD +1.58, VRTX +3.28, VRX +.35 (we own the 7/24 calls @ $ .50 to .56 which close $ .67), and IBB +1.88 (1.62%).

 

 RETAIL, this group was lower with M -.35, JWN -.03, KSS-.82, DDS -1.58, SHLD -.05, JCP +.02, WMT +.02, HD +1.16, TJX -.96, TGT -.40 (we bought some 7/77 calls @ $1.05 and  sold half @ $2.10 on our 100% Up Rule and they closed $ .77), DKS -.04 and XRT -.20 (.41%).

  

FAANG, the group was the star today with GOOGL +30.04, AMZN +41.85, AAPL +3.15, FB +4.40, TSLA -2.47, NVDA +3.24, NFLX -5.32, BIDU +10.60, BABA +2.89, IBM +1.51, BOX +.50  (we own the 7/27 calls @ $ .58 and they closed $ .55), and XLK +1.13 (1.58%).

 

FINANCIALS, were slightly higher with GS+1.58, JPM +.47, BAC +.09, c +.72, AIG -.26, PNC +.31, WFC -.05, and XLF unchanged.

 

OIL, $70.37 -.01, after failing to hold over $75 we fell over $3.00 yesterday and I said that there is some pretty solid support right here and a consolidation is certainly warranted.  We bounced off the $69.25 level and closed basically unchanged. The stocks were higher again today with CVX +.74, APC +.34, BP +.21, COP +1.40, APA -.61, PSX +.48, MPC +.55, MRO +.14, RIG -.03, OAS -.02, HES -.09, NE +.05, OXY +.63, XOM +.18, and XLE +.13 (.17%).

 

METALS, $1,247.20 +2.80 the gold was trying to stabilizing around $1,265 to $1,275 but couldn’t hold that range and fell through to new recent lows.  We have now had some support around the 1238.80 area.  Copper continues weak collapsing to new contract lows at $2.7170 and closing 2.7765 +.033.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,165 -180.  After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $5975.  As I’ve been saying for a while, a short term rally of 20% or so could come at any time, and that’s what we have had.  The question now is do we consolidate, go higher, or just go into another downtrend?  There is a gap to the upside at $5,950 that may need to be filled.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

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After the close 7/11/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 12TH

Thanks Mr. President !!

 

We started the day with the futures solidly lower from last night’s announcement of an additional $200 Billion of tariffs.  This is getting very old, to say the least.  It looked like after the -200 level might hold when we rallied back to down just 80, but by late afternoon we were sitting on the lows down 205, and after another minor rally to -130, we headed lower and closed at a new low of the day -219.21(.88%), NASDAQ -42.59 (.55%), S&P 500 -19.82 (.71%), Russell -11.96 (.71%), and the DJ Transports -212.76 (2.02%) on the back of lowered guidance from AMR.  The airlines have earnings starting tomorrow morning with DAL and others and the fear is that they may have increased capacity to a point at which they may stifled growth in the “revenue per passenger mile” category.  The market internals were grim with NYSE volume 4:1 lower and A/D 2.5:1 and NASDAQ 2:1 on both measures.  There were still more new highs than lows on both, but nothing like we have seen recently.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, there was in the airlines with the worst being AAL -3.16 (8.08%) followed by UAL-2.42 (3.39%), but the others were lower too.  The truckers didn’t do much better with JBHT -2.42 (1.97%) and ODFL 145.89 -2.13 (1.44%) but lower from $154 just yesterday.  After the close Broadcom (AVGO) is paying around $18Billion for CA 43.19 +5.96 (15%) while AVGO is trading down 12.76 (5.3%).  Comcast (CMSCA) just raised their bid for SKY to $34B in cash.  I don’t believe this new price is the last shot fired, but I would rather stick with CBS or DISCA, although they are both up, and I would use options, not stock to play.

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed to lower again today after Mr. Trump tweeted about PFE this morning.  Although not specifically a biotech, it cast a pall over the group.  CELG -1.21, BIIB -.72, REGN-1.06, ISRG +2.11, ABBV -3.74, MYL -.52, TEVA -.39, PRGO -.09, GILD -.73, VRTX -.10. VRX -.05 (we own the 7/24 calls @ $ .50 to .56 which close $ .52), and IBB -.34 (.29%).

 

 

RETAIL, this group was lower with M -.28, JWN +1.33, KSS -.72, DDS -.55, SHLD +.08, JCP-.03, WMT -.80, HD -.71, TJX +.33, TGT -.02  (we bought some 7/77 calls @ $1.05 and  sold half @ $2.10 on our 100% Up Rule and they closed $1.45), DKS -.29 and XRT -.46 (.93%).

 

 

FAANG, the group was mixed to lower with GOOGL +4.32, AMZN +11.93, AAPL -2.42, FB -.99, TSLA -3.59, NVDA -5.75, NFLX +1.00, BIDU unchanged, BABA -4.71, IBM +.23, BOX +.08

 (we own the 7/27 calls @ $ .58 and they closed $ .43), and XLK -.57 (.79%).

 

FINANCIALS, were lower across the board with GS-1.19, JPM -.23, BAC -.15, C -.23, AIG -.90, PNC -.07, WFC-.55 and XLF -.16 (.59%).

 

OIL, $74.11 +.26, after trying to hold over $75 we fell last week on bearish drawdown numbers.  We should have pretty solid support right here and a consolidation is certainly warranted.  The stocks were higher again today with CVX +1.01, APC +.29, BP +.40, COP +.74, APA +.21, PSX + .60, MPC +.05 MRO unchanged, RIG +.23, OAS -.14, HES +.39, NE +.28, OXY +.45, XOM +.64 and XLE +.57 (.74%).

 

 

METALS, $1,244.40 -11.00 the gold was trying to stabilizing around $1,265 to $1,275 but couldn’t hold that range and fell through to new recent lows.  We have now had some support around the 1238.80 area.  Copper continues weak collapsing to new contract lows at $2.7170 and closing 2.7435 -.0960.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $6,345 -22.  After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $5975.  As I’ve been saying for a while, a short term rally of 20% or so could come at any time, and that’s what we have had.  The question now is do we consolidate, go higher, or just go into another downtrend?

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

After the close 7/10/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 11TH

Rally Continues, But only in the DJIA !!

 

We started the day with the futures higher and we moved to the early highs at +135 and spent most of the day hanging there between +130 and +85 to finish the day at the highs with DJIA +143.07 (.58%), NASDAQ +3.00 (.04%), S&P 500 +9.67, Russell – 8.98(.53%) and DJ Transports -32.43 (.30%).  The unfortunate thing today was that the NYSE volume was only 3:2 up and A/D was 1:1, while over on the NASDAQ we were 7:8 and 2:3 negative.  The gain in the Dow was basically in the same names, BA, CVX, PG and UNH.  This run for the last several days and I’m guessing that when Mr. Trump says something stupid in Europe we will have another downdraft, even if only until some cabinet member comes out to walk it back.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, there was weakness in WBA today on a downgrade by Evercore ISI, but PEP had better than expected earnings and spent the day up from premarket and closing at its high +5.13 (4.76%).  We also has Elon Musk announcing another new Giga factory in China that will have the capacity to build 500,000 Tesla per year.  On the downside we had poor guidance from JWN this morning and the stock suffered a fall from yesterday’s high over $54 to trade $50.13 and closed -2.12 (3.96%).

After the close we had VOXX with a miss both top and bottom lines and after closing $5.90 +6.31 % it fell as low as $4 it is trading $5.10.

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed to lower today after several firms said that they thought the action (+57) in BIIB was overdone and the stock fell $13.47 (3.81%), REGN -5.04, CELG+.01, ABBV +1.11, MTL -.44, TEVA -.20, PRGO +.27, GILD -.56, VRTX +.95, VRX +.32  (we bot  the 7/24 calls @ $ .50 to .56 which close $ .55), INCY -1.44, ICPT +.42, INNT +.32 and IBB -1.33 (1.14%).

 

 

RETAIL, this group was mixed to lower after the JWN news with M +.26, JWN-2.12, KSS -.56, DDS -1.37, SHLD +.05, JCP unchanged, WMT +.79, HD -.58, TJX -1.20, TGT +.54 (we bought some 7/77 calls @ $1.05 and  sold half @ $2.10 on our 100% Up Rule and they closed $1.97), DKS +.29, and XRT -.36 (.72%).

 

 

FAANG, the group was lower across the board with GOOGL -10.28, AMZN -9.02, AAPL -1.90, FB -3.14, TSLA -1.61, NVDA +.35, NFLX -8.47, BIDU-4.73, BABA -3.55, IBM -.14, BA +.08, CAT -1.96, BOX -.81 (we own the 7/27 calls @ $ .58 and they closed $ .45), and XLK -.44 (.61%).

 

FINANCIALS, were higher at the open but finished the day lower across the board with GS-2.89, JPM -1.39, BAC -.48, C -1.11, AIG -.19, PNC -1.04, WFC -.47, and XLF -.10 (.37%).

 

OIL, $74.11 +.26, after trying to hold over $75 we fell last week on bearish drawdown numbers.  We should have pretty solid support right here and a consolidation is certainly warranted.  The stocks were higher again today with CVX +1.01, APC +.29, BP +.40, COP +.74, APA +.21, PSX + .60, MPC +.05 MRO unchanged, RIG +.23, OAS -.14, HES +.39, NE +.28, OXY +.45, XOM +.64 and XLE +.57 (.74%).

 

 

METALS, $1,255.40 -4.20 the gold was trying to stabilizing around $1,265 to $1,275 but couldn’t hold that range and fell through to new lows.  We have now had some upward pressure in the gold and a small rally off the lows around $1,247 today before settling lower.  Copper continues weak closing -.0105 and is trading tonight lower by just over $ .035.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $6,367 -325.  After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $5975.  Finally over the last weekend we were +$420 and a 2 day total of $728.  As I’ve been saying for a while, a short term rally of 20% or so could come at any time, and that’s what we have had.  The question now is do we consolidate, go higher, or just go into another downtrend?

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 7/9/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 10TH

Rally Continues !!

 

We started the post-holiday week strongly to the upside today with solid action that included, for the first time in the recent past, from the financials.  DKIA +320.11 (1.31%), NASDAQ +67.81 (.88%), S&P 500 +24.35 (.88%), the Russell +10.55 (.62%), and the DJ Transports +214.16 (2.04%).  Market internals were solid but not excessive with NYSE volume 2.2:1 and A/D 9:5 positive and NASDAQ a bit stronger at 2.6:1 and 3:2 respectively.  The new highs / new lows expanded dramatically on NYSE to10:1 and 5:1 on NASDAQ.  The biggest gainers for the DJIA were the usual suspects with BA, CAT, AAPL, GS, JPM and UNH, but we’ll deal with them by sector.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, there was weakness in TWTR as they reported that they had deleted 70 million accounts that were suspected as “fake” accounts but clarified that it should be looked at as improving the platform.  They were not included in recent metrics but the stock was still lower at 44.14-2.51 (5.38%) after trading as low as $42.08.  GRPN is reportedly putting itself up for sale and finished $4.83 +.47 (10.78%).  BNTC is in a licensing agreement for their MS treatment and that was good for a 55% gain to $3.42.  ACAD was a real roller coaster today after trading higher early only to be questioned later about its sole drug, Nupazid, questioning the loop holes used to get it approved and masking its safety in marketing. The stock traded up to $18.44 and then coming down to close $16.63-1.21 (6.78%).  DOVA another pharma up as high as $37 this spring was downgraded to market perform and fell to $25.54 -3.67 (12.56%).  Last, but clearly not least, STAF, a staffing solutions firm completed the acquisition of Clement May of the UK and added an additional $50 million in revenues to be on a run-rate of $300 million this year. It was halted for volatility but finished the day $5.50 +4.13 (301%), but beware, it was a split adjusted $18 high in 2016.

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, with the exception of BIIB (which was up $67 on Friday) this group has picked up a strong bid recently and the only reason that we haven’t been more active in it is because the IBB (ETF) has very little liquidity in the options.

Today the group was strong with CELG +1.64, CELG -4.46, REGN +1.72, ISRG +3.96, ABBV +.28, MYL +.48, TEVA +.12, PRGO +1.31, GILD +1.29, VRTX+.71, VRX +.60 (we bot  the 7/24 calls @ $ .50 to .56 which close $ .53), INCY +.79, ICPT +.18, INNT +2.79 (13.6%), and IBB +.78.

 

 

RETAIL, this group was mixed with M -.39, JWN -.95, KSS +.12, DDS -1.71, SHLD +.03, JCP -.04, WMT +1.34, HD +1.60, TJX +.15, TGT +.97 (we bought some 7/77 calls @ $1.05 and they closed $1.65), DKS +.39, and XRT +.14 (.28%).

 

 

FAANG, the group was higher across the board with GOOGL +12.20, AMZN +28.08, AAPL +2.25, FB +1.53, TSLA +8.85, NVDA +1.97, NFLX +11.15 (2.75%), BIDU +10.34 (4.11%), BABA +.21, IBM +2.02, BOX +.52 (we own the 7/27 calls @ $ .58 and they closed $ .67), BA +7.36, CAT +5.59, and XLK +.58 (.79%).

 

FINANCIALS, were much higher today with two of the bigger DJIA point gains in GS +6.11 (42 Dow pts), JPM +3.41 (24 Dow), BAC +1.00, C +1.84, AIG +1.19, PNC +2.79, WFC +.95 and XLF +.61 (2.29%).

 

OIL, $73.85 +.05, after trying to hold over $75 we fell last week on bearish drawdown numbers.  We should have pretty solid support right here and a consolidation is certainly warranted.  The stocks were higher across the board with CVX +1.85,APC +1.52, BP +.76, COP +1.35, APA +1.49, PSX +1.60, MPC +1.62, MRO +.88, RIG +.57, OAS +.13, HES +1.64, NE +.35, XOM +.66, OXY +1.00 and XLE +1.13 (1.49%).

 

 

METALS, $1,259.60 +.05 the gold was trying to stabilizing around $1,265 to $1,275 but couldn’t hold that range and fell through to new lows.  We have now had some upward pressure in the gold and a small rally as high as $1266 today before settling barely changed.  Copper was up to $2.85 +.026 and needs a lot of work to start and maintain any move back to $3.00.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $6,692 +153.  After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $5975.  Finally over the last weekend we were +$420 and a 2 day total of $728.  As I’ve been saying for a while, a short term rally of 20% or so could come at any time, and that’s what we have had.  The question now is do we consolidate, go higher, or just go into another downtrend?

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 7/5/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 6TH

Post Holiday Rebound

 

We started the post-holiday market with a burst of 200 in the Dow followed by a selloff that took us to slightly lower on the day and a steady grind higher to new highs, and a smaller sell-off to a slightly higher low and close near the highs at +181.92 (.75%), NASDAQ +83.76(1.12%), S&P500 +23.39 >86%), the Russell +19.06 (1.15) and the Transports +59.44 (.57%).  Market internals were good on the NYSE where the volume and the A/D were 3:1 higher.  NASDAQ was slightly less positive at 2.5:1 on both.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, there really wasn’t a great deal of surprise news that drove the markets today.  Most of the optimism was generated through Trump cabinet sounding the prevalent refrain of “it’s not going to be that bad, it’s just his tactic for negotiation.”  However, at midnight tonight when the tariffs are due to go into effect, we’ll all see how well it worked out.  After the close we had word that RGLS is restructuring its partnership with Sanofi on a new drug for Hep. B virus drug.  As if it needed a reason to go lower having already fallen from a high of $25 back in 2015, it fell to $.40 (44%).  While we don’t usually look at stocks this low-priced, I noted that today, that 9 of the top 10 percentage movers on the NYSE were all single digit prices.

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was higher with CELG +1.74, BIIB +5.30(1.8%) had news of positive results on its new Alzheimer’s drug after their close and it ran up to $318 +24.49 (8.34%), REGN +7.09, ISRG +1.81, ABBV +.97, MYL +.32, TEVA -.70, PRGO +1.29, GILD +1.43, VRTX +1.76, VRX -.07, INNT -3.13 (12%), and IBB +2.04 (1.84%).

 

 

RETAIL, this group was mixed with M -.27, JWN +1.32, KSS -.14, DDS -1.31, SHLD +.03, JCP +.08, WMT +.13, HD -.61, TJX -.08, TGT -.08, DKS -.39 and XRT +.56 (1.15%). (we bought some 7/77 calls @ $1.05 and they closed $1.30)

FAANG, The With the exception of TSLA, the group was higher with GOOGL +22.72, AMZN +2.39, AAPL +.93, FB +5.42, TSLA -3.35, NFLX +7.09, NVDA +4.76, BIDU -3.03, BABA +.65, IBM +1.74, BOX +.34, BA -.93 and XLK +.98.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed to slightly higher with GS -.37, JPM +.38, BAC +.07, C +.27, AIG +.25, PNC +1.19, WFC -.49 and XLF +.06 (.23%).

 

OIL, $73.12 – 1.12, after trying to hold over $75 we fell on bearish drawdown numbers.  We should have pretty solid support right here and a consolidation is certainly warranted.  The stocks were mixed to lower and XLE finished -.08 (.11%).

 

 

METALS, $1,258.80 +4.80 the gold was trying to stabilizing around $1,265 to $1,275 but couldn’t hold that range and fell through to new lows.  We have now had some upward pressure in the gold, but the copper continues to fall to new contract lows with today’s move to $2.8345 -.089.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $6,500 +10.  After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $5975.  Finally over the weekend we were +$420 and a 2 day total of $728.  As I’ve been saying for a while, a short term rally of 20% or so could come at any time, and that’s what we have had.  The question now is do we consolidate, go higher, or just go into another downtrend?

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 7/2/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Is TSLA a Car Company?

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 29th

 

We started the day with very weak futures and the market didn’t disappoint at the open, but along the way we ran into first, some stocks that just wouldn’t go down, and then even on a hot muggy Monday of a holiday-shortened week we built a rally a in the tech stocks and then even the financials, and by the close we were up across the board.  The DJIA +35.77 (.15%) after being lower by 200, NASDAQ +57.39 (.76%), S&P 500 +8.34 (.31%), and the Russell +12.02 (.73%).  Even the lowly DJ Transports were +103.21 (1%).  The internals on the NYSE went from 3:1 down volume to 1:1 while A/D finished slightly positive @ 15:13 up.  NASDAQ was never as negative and finished 2:1 volume and 9:5 A/D.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, big news from Michael Dell, that he is going to buy back the tracking stock (DVMT) and take the company public again.  DVMT closed 92.20 +7.62 (9%) and the number looks like $109 or so in cash and stock.  VMW was the BIG winner with a close of $162.02 +15.05 (10.42%).  TSLA had the Q2 production numbers this morning and they looked great and the stock traded up to 364.78 +21.83 before turning down later in the day and closed 335.07 -7.88 (2.3%) and almost $30 off the high.  This was an “outside day” (higher high and lower low), and it is potentially devastating technical occurrence.  ADMP announced a marketing partner for their generic version of the MYL “Epi-Pen” and it closed $4.80 +1.60 (50%).  MDXG reported the resignation of its CEO, COO and members of its audit committee, never a good sign, and after falling from over $18 in February it was 3.93 -2.40 another 38.5%.

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was higher with CELG +.30, BIIB +3.09, REGN +5.45 (1.58%), ISRG +9.92, ABBV +.47, MYL +.42, PRGO +.36, GILD +.58, VRTX -1.34, VRX -.34, ICPT +4.79 (5.7%) INNT +3.12 (13.24%) and IBB +.18 (.16%).

 

 

RETAIL, this group was lower with JWN leading the way -1.57 (3.03%), M -.82, KSS -1.57, DDS -2.12, SHLD -.03, WMT -1.63, TJX -.67 and TGT -.37 (we bought some 7/77 calls @ $1.05 and they closed $ .96) and XRT -.04 (.08%).

 

FAANG, The With the exception of TSLA, the group was higher with GOOGL +12.31, AMZN +13.70, AAPL +2.19, FB +1.01, NVDA +4.80, BIDU +2.80, BABA +.48, IBM +.71, BOX +.56, and XLK +.48 (.69%).

 

FINANCIALS, were lower early but finished the day higher with GS +2.48, JPM +.89, BAC +.09, C +.09, AIG +.34, PNC +.82, WFC +.79 and XLF +.15 (.56%).

 

 

OIL, $72.76 +2.23, after testing the last breakout near $64 we broke solidly higher last week and yesterday’s big gain was clearly not a blow-off, since today we resumed our march higher. There is was supply between 71.50 up to the contract highs at $72.70, but we cut right thru that.  The stocks were higher by 1 -3% and the XLE closed 75.61 +1.04 (1.41%).

 

 

METALS, $1,241.70 -12.80 the gold was trying to stabilizing around $1,265 to $1,275 but couldn’t hold that range and fell through to new lows.  Silver followed lower by $ .34 and the copper fell to new life of contract lows down another $ .02. 

 

 

BITCOIN closed $6,625 +728.  After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $5975.  Finally over the weekend we were +$420 and a 2 day total of $728.  As I’ve been saying for a while, a short term rally of 20% or so could come at any time, and that what we had.  The question now is do we consolidate, go higher, or just go into another downtrend?

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 6/28/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Another “Death by Amazon”

FOR TRADING JUNE 29th

It looked like we might have a bounce with the futures higher all night, but between the inclusion of WBA in the DJIA and their earnings miss on comp sales, we turned lower.  The last look at Q1 GDP (+2% vs 2.2 last look) didn’t help much.  We opened slightly lower, tried the upside and then around 10:40 we made the lows, followed by an hour of unchanged to higher.  After a rally to the new highs we closed with DJIA +98.46 (.41%) after being +200, NASDAQ +58.60 (.79%), S&P500 +16.68 (.62%), and the DJ Transports – 24.02 after being lower by 115 earlier in the afternoon.  The drag on the Transports was FDX.

I am again out on a family emergency so tonights not will be short, but I will try to touch on each sector.  I am working on the Cross Sound Ferry on my way to Long Island.

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, another new deal, the purchase by AMZN of PillPack, an online pharmacy that packages prescriptions in individual doses.  While not a Pharmacy Management company, it is licensed in all 50 states.  The whole group moved lower from the open and unfortunately, the more information coming out, the worse it got.  

WBA -7.91 (8.7%), CVS -6.40 (8.8%), RAD -.26 (12.8%), MCK -13.08 (8.9%), CAH -3.61 (6.7%), and ABC -7.40 (7.9%).  This was just another example of how anyone in any retail business can have major pieces of its market share decimated by AMZN.  At some point our politicians will figure out a way to tap into this ATM, like they did with the big banks.

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed with the standouts being REGN +5, MYL -1.12 (3%), TEVA +1.07 (4.6%), PRGO -1.08 (1.46%), GILD +1.69, and IBB +.61 (.57%).

RETAIL, this group was mixed with M +.60, JWN +1.05, KSS -.04, SHLD +.09, JCP -.01, WMT -1.03, TJX +1.12, TGT -1.27, DKS +.58 and XRT +.01.

FAANG, we were higher across the board  with GOOGL +9.84, AMZN, fresh from its murder of the pharmacy names from above was +40.94 (2.47%), AAPL +1.34, FB +.39, NFLX +5.03, NVDA +5.14, BOX +.40 (we bought a half position in the BOX 7/27 calls today @ $ .60), and XLK _.84 (1.22%).

FINANCIALS, were mixed to higher but the real news was after the close on the release of the results of the new and improved stress test.  I’m not giving net change for the day since it is the aftermarket action that is most important with GS 223.42 to 225.35, JPM 104.93 to 107.04, BAC 28.67 to 29.04, and C 66.88 to 68.27.  The XLF is not particularly active in the extended hours but it closed 26.69 and is currently bid 26.83.

 

OIL, $73.45 +.69, after testing the last breakout near $64 we broke solidly higher last week and yesterday’s big gain was clearly not a blow-off, since today we resumed our march higher. There is was supply between 71.50 up to the contract highs at $72.70, but we cut right thru that and the news continues to be bullish with a new high life of contract high just over $74 and a new recovery high since 2014.

METALS, $1,251 – 5.10 the gold was trying to stabilizing around $1,265 to $1,275.  It was lower today and unless we see a sharp snap-back tomorrow we will have to be a seller. (We bought the GLD 7/121 calls @ .89 t and they were stopped out on the 50% down rule.).  

BITCOIN closed $6,067 -48.  After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $5975, and today traded around that on a very short-range day.  Unfortunately tonight we are down another 150 to new life of contract lows.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs

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.

After the close 6/27/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

An Epic Fail !!

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 28th

 

It looked like we might actually have a strong day after the White House walked back on another of the Presidents inane comments (again) and we had a good start.  Unfortunately it didn’t hold after being up 285 on the DJIA by about 11:00AM and  every hour had a lower high and a lower low until we hit -138 around 3:30 and had another little respite to -50, but by the close we were at the new low for the day at DJIA -165.52 (.68%), NASDAQ-116.55(1.54%), S&P 500 -23.43(.86%), the Russell -28.07 (1.69%), and the DJ Transports -52.49 (.51%).  Market internals were weak and even +285 they were unimpressive. NYSE volume was 2:1 negative while NASDAQ 4:1.  A/D followed with 2.5:1 and 4:1 down respectively.  New high/new lows were almost 2:1 negative.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, a new deal, a “take-under” by Conagra (CAG) buying frozen food competitor Pinnacle (PF) for $68 in cash.  Unfortunately PF had closed $67.86 and traded down on the day by 2.91 (4.29%) while CAG fell 2.80 (7.32%). No tears for PF holders since the stock has moved from $52 in April.  BBBY reported just after the close and same store comps were a disappointment and the stock is trading down 1.21 (6.5%) after closing up on the day in normal trading.  In other news, CARA a drug company reporting statistically important results from those having surgery for its medical marijuana for both pain and relief from nausea from general anesthesia.  The stock, up from $11.50 in late May opened this morning and traded $22.29before closing $18.06 +1.62 (9.85%).  One last small one, getting much bigger is DFBG, $5.45 +4.56 (512%) on the news that they are buying another branding company with licenses for Disney, Star Wars, Calvin Klein, and Michael Kors, for $1.38 billion.  No idea where they’ll get the money, but there are clearly some big believers.

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was weak with CELG -1.06, BIIB -3.92, REGN +9.10 (2.78%), ABBV -.61, MYL -.12, PRGO-.48, GILD -1.61, VTRX -4.00 (2.65%), VRX -.50, INCY -1.27, ICPT -6.13 (7.2%), INNT -.04, and IBB -2.37 (2.16%).

 

 

RETAIL, this group was mixed to lower with M +.33, JWN -.24, KSS -.67, DDS +1.28, SHLD -.12 (5.2%), JCP -.13, WMT +1.01, HD -1.28, TJX -.16, TGT +.54, DKS -.04, and the brands also lower , and XRT -.75 (1.5%).

 

FAANG, The problem here was that all these names were higher with the rest of the market but closed, as the market did, on their lows, with only TSLA was higher by 1.69 while the rest, GOOGL-15.68, AMZN-29.59, AAPL-.27, FB -3.16, NFLX -7.89, NVDA-6.29, BIDU-7.92, BABA-6.35, IBM -1.25, BOX =1.25, BA -.90, CAT -.67, and XLK -.95 (1.38%).

 

FINANCIALS, were lower with GS -1.40, JPM -1.56, BAC -.29, C -.81, AIG -.76, PNC -1.98, WFC -.15 and XLF -.34 (1.27%).

 

 

OIL, $72.76 +2.23, after testing the last breakout near $64 we broke solidly higher last week and yesterday’s big gain was clearly not a blow-off, since today we resumed our march higher. There is was supply between 71.50 up to the contract highs at $72.70, but we cut right thru that.  The stocks were higher by 1 -3% and the XLE closed 75.61 +1.04 (1.41%).

 

 

METALS, $1,256.10 -3.80 the gold was trying to stabilizing around $1,265 to $1,275.  It was lower today and unless we see a sharp snap-back tomorrow we will have to be a seller. (We bought the GLD 7/121 calls @ .89 t and they were stopped out on the 50% down rule.).

 

 

BITCOIN closed $6,115 -55.  After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $5975.  Maybe I’m just a dinosaur, but every time I hear a 30-something tell me that this is the future and that it is “like digital gold

I want to ask, “How’s that working for you with the market (real value) down by 71% from the highs over $20,000 in December?”  While it may be a store of value if you live in Argentina or some other area with rampant inflation and the possible losses of wealth by government action, I just don’t see either of those here, where I live.  That said, the futures are trying to hold $6.000 and can easily rally back into the most recent supply around $6,800, but 5800 is a hard stop.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 6/16/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Anemic at Best

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 27th

 

We spent most of the day in a narrow range and slightly higher right from the open.  There wasn’t much in the way of news to sway us one way or the other, but after a 500 point decline and a 175 rally just before the close.  Unfortunately, as stated above, it just couldn’t make any real headway.  The market internals were positive with both NASDAQ and NYSE both 3:2 up volume and the A/D line 4:3 so it wasn’t a washout, just not very impressive.  At 3:00pm we were near the highs +120 and by the close we had melted away to close +30.31(.12%), NASDAQ +29.62 (.39%), S&P 500 (.22%), the Russell +11.82 (.66%).

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, there were a couple of stories today that we’ve touched on in the past. Last week we talked about what happens to companies that get booted from the DJIA.  The name involved was GE and after being a member for just 110 years it was replaced today with Walgreens (WBA).  And true to form, GE had its best day in over 3 years, closing +$ .99 or 7.76%.  The funny thing about it was that if still included in the Dow, it would have been the best performer today.  WBA was lower by $ .67 or 1%.  Some other names today were HTZ -2.23 (11.68%) and CAR -3.73 (9.65).  They are Hertz and Avis/Budget and Morgan Stanley downgraded both and both have come down over the last 3 days by about 25%.  Also on the downside was SONC and after a beat, but with poor comps and guidance finished – 2.88 (8%).  The stock has been on a run from $24 to 36 since 6/4.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed again today with CELG -.14, BIIB -.27, REGN +.12, ISRG +9.30, ABBV -.71, MYL +.18, TEVA +.14, PRGO -.61, GILD -.89, VRTX -3.26 (2.11%), VRX +.22, INCY -4.83 (6.73%), ICPT +3.09 (3.78%), INNT +1.99(10.6%) and IBB -.47 (.43%).

 

 

RETAIL, this group reversed the 2 day losing streak and most were higher with M +1.02, JWN +.67, KSS +1.39, SHLD +.03, JCP +.09, WMT -.26, TJX -.13, TGT -.13 DKS +.73 and XRT +.20 (.40%).

 

FAANG,  were higher with the exception of GOOGL -4.28, AMZN +29.35, AAPL+2.40, FB +3.05, NFLX +16.92, TSLA +9.29, NVDA +3.83, BIDU +.58, BABA +1.40, IBM +.61, BOX +.60, BA +.49, CAT -.80, XLK +.28 (.40%).

 

FINANCIALS, were lower early but most came up to close with small gains with GS .43, JPM +.26, BAC +.08, C +.70, AIG -.58, PNC -1.13, WFC -.39 and XLF -.09 (.34%).

 

 

OIL, $70.53 +2.45, after testing the last breakout near $64 we broke solidly higher last week and yesterday was just a quiet range.  Today, after the news on Iran, we resumed our march higher. There is some supply between 71.50 up to the contract highs at $72.70.  All were higher by 1 -3% and the XLE closed 74.57 +.93 (1.26%).

 

 

METALS, $1,259.90 -8.00 the gold was trying to stabilizing around $1,265 to $1,275.  It was lower today and unless we see a sharp snap-back tomorrow we will have to be a seller. (We bought the GLD 7/121 calls @ .89 today and they closed $ .60).

 

 

BITCOIN closed $6,170 -90. After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $5975.  Maybe I’m just a dinosaur, but every time I hear a 30-something tell me that this is the future and that it is “like digital gold” I want to ask, “How’s that working for you with the market (real value) down by 71% from the highs over $20,000 in December?”  While it may be a store of value if you live in Argentina or some other area with rampant inflation and the possible losses of wealth by government action, I just don’t see either of those here, where I live.  That said, the futures are trying to hold $6.000 and can easily rally back into the most recent supply around $6,800.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 6/25/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

A Very Ugly Day (Mostly)

FAANG Destroyed !!

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 26th

 

We were sharply lower in the futures overnight and it only got worse after the open.  There was a minor pause, but by 11:00 we started another step down, and again at 2:00 we made the last leg lower to DJ -496.  We stayed there until the administration trotted out Peter Navarro to tell anyone who would listen that nothing was set on the tariff and we came off the lows and finished down “just” 328.09 (1.33%), NASDAQ -160.81 (2.09%), S&P 500 -37.81 (1.37%), the Russell (28.07 (1.67%), and the Transports, the biggest loser -251.97 (2.34%).  The biggest losses however were in the FAANG, which have little or no exposure in China, and limited exposure to any tariffs.  I’ll give you the rundown in their sector below, but it was ugly. The internals were understandingly weak with both the NYSE and NASDAQ volume 4:1 down and A/D 3:1 negative.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, there were a couple of standouts, actual gainers for the day, and the most pleasing to me was CTL, a stock that we own along with its options.  The stock opened down with the market but quickly went positive and stayed there.  We had to sell half of our option position (CTL 7/18 calls) on my 100% Up Rule. We continue to own the balance and will probably follow it higher with a trailing sell stop.  Another gainer was CPB, with speculation about possible deal to buy it.  It closed the day $42.23 +3.63 (9.40%) and up from $32.63 just this month.  A couple of small names that were higher all day, ABIL, a company with little actual information, other than the statement that “Ability Inc. provides advanced interception, monitoring, and cyber intelligence tools to serve security and intelligence agencies, military forces, law enforcement and homeland securities agencies, globally.”  Must be great since it closed the day 10.00+5.01 (100%) and up from $2.02 since Thursday.  Another company that has little info other than the news that it was “halted for volatility” XBIO, 5.75 +2.93 (103%) and up from $1.45, and lastly, one that I have reported on before, INNT, another with limited info but closed $18.76 +5.31 (39%).  It has been up from $3.43 to $50.50 this year.  It has a limited float by virtue of a 1:10 reverse in February.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, with the exception of the aforementioned INNT, all of the names I follow are lower.  The percentage loses are from .5% up to VRX 23.06 -1.21 (4.99%). The IBB closed 110.20 -2.03 (1.81%).

 

 

RETAIL, the follow thru from Friday’s losses continued here with WMT the only gainer on my list closing +1.70 (2%).  M -.44, JWN -.53, KSS -.91, DDS -2.79, SHLD -.13 (5.37%), JCP -.18, HD -1.03. I still feel this group is extended and I can’t think of a single one I’d buy here, but another day like today and I’m certain something will turn up. The XRT was -.79 (1.57%).

 

FAANG,  were sharply lower with GOOGL -29.49, AMZN-52.52, AAPL -2.82, FB -5.39, NFLX -26.44(6.43%) after making new all-time highs Thursday, TSLA-.62, NVDA -11.75, BIDU -9.50, BABA-11.76, IBM -2.19, BOX-1.39, BA -7.81, CAT -3.24 and XLK-1.47 (2.08%).

 

FINANCIALS, were lower again with GS-4.54, JPM -.95, BAC-.49, C -1.37, AIG-.24, PNC-.36 WFC +.06, and XLF -.27 (1%).  (We bought the JPM 7/110 calls @ $1.59 and added to @ $1.26 and today we were stopped out @ $ .78 on our 50% Down Rule).

 

 

OIL, $68.08 -.50, after testing the last breakout near $64 we broke solidly higher last week and today was just a quiet range.  This is clearly a normal and expectable rest for the market. The stocks were all lower today and the XLE closed $73.70 -1.45 or 1.93%.

 

METALS, $1,268.90 -1.80 the gold is trying to stabilizing around $1,265 to $1,275.  (We bought the GLD 7/121 calls @ .89 today and they closed $ .83).  I expect a rally in the very short term.  The copper was lower today to close $2.9870 -.04.  This market has completed a rally to new life of contract highs @ $3.3175 on 6/7 and has collapsed to just above (so far) contract lows.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,260 +123. After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $5975.  Maybe I’m just a dinosaur, but every time I hear a 30-something tell me that this is the future and that it is “like digital gold” I want to ask, “How’s that working for you with the market (real value) down by 71% from the highs over $20,000 in December?”  While it may be a store of value if you live in Argentina or some other area with rampant inflation and the possible losses of wealth by government action, I just don’t see either of those here, where I live.  That said, the futures are trying to hold $6.000 and can easily rally back into the most recent supply around $6,800.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 6/19/2018



Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

The Rally Didn’t Hold, but Damage was Limited

Sad News for GE and the DOW

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 20th



We were sharply lower in the futures overnight but once we opened, it became evident that aside from the big DJIA names, there were some bright spots to be found.  By 10:45 we had made the lows of the day -420, but there were some bright spots to be seen.  By the end of the day the DJIA was -287.26 (1.15%) while NASDAQ -21.44(.28%) and S&P 500 -11.16 (.40%) and the Russell +.99(.06%).  The big DJIA names that had the out-sized losses were BA 30% or 93 points, AAPL -22, CAT -37, GS -22, HD -11, MMM -33, UNH -13, UTX -17.  The bright spots were really anything that wasn’t a major DJIA name.  JPM was - .58 (4 Dow points) and finished near the highs of the day.  There were many like this, and I’ll get to them in the Sector breakdown below.  The internals also told a different story with NYSE volume 4:5 down and NASDAQ 2:3 lower with A/D 3:4 and 7:8 respectively.  Not the norm for down 300.

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, the disaster du jour was one of the gainers from yesterday, PTCT +$10.33 or 27.5% was lower today on no new news closing -14.64 (30.6%).  That RBC upgrade looks a little weak tonight. More bad news came from SBUX issuing Q3 growth from +4% to +1%.  The stock traded down to $53.82 or almost 4 lower before a rally back to $55.  While they are opening a new store every 19 hours in China, they are closing 150 here at home.  On the earnings front we had a beat top and bottom for ORCL The stock traded up to $48.40 and then down to down to 44.25.  FDX also reported a beat and traded up and down too, but is holding a small gain @ $259.50 +1.12.  CLBS, a small biotech that received a new license by the FDA traded +added (67%).  ASTC has been accepted into European Evaluation for their screening of both passengers and cargo and traded to $6.36 +4.41 (226%).  

And again on a personal note, I own 10 shares of GEVO that traded up to $21 before closing +9.19 (261%) yesterday and another 6.80 today +53%). Unfortunately, this was the result a 4000 share buy (and I can’t even recall the price) that has been reversed 1 for 20 not once, but twice.  Can’t win them all!!



GE being dropped from the DJIA

In the news after the close, GE, in the DJIA for 110 years, is being dropped from the popular average and being replaced by Walgreens (WBA).  This is antidotal evidence that the bottom must be near, since stocks dropped from the Industrial Average had tended to go higher.  AA was dropped and we actually traded it for some great gains from that day forward.  At the same time the others dropped were BAC and HP.  All have done well since.


BIO/PHARMA, was generally higher today with CELG +1.71, BIIB +2.92, REGN +11.46, ISRG -2.07, ABBV -.47, MYL unchanged, TEVA -.12, PRGO unchanged, GILD +2.02, VRTX +2.81, VRX +.64, INCY +.98, ICPT +2.58, INNT -.51 and IBB +1.61 (1.46%).


RETAIL, was mixed with M +.15, JWN -.80, KSS +.58, DDS unchanged, SHLD -.10, JCP -.02, WMT +.59, HD -1.19, TJX unchanged, TGT -.89, DKS unchanged, URBN -.18, ANF and RL unchanged, UAA -.69, LULU -1.12, NKE -1.21, KORS -1.58 and XRT +.17 (.34%).  I still feel this group is extended and I can’t think of a single one I’d buy here.

FAANG,  were mostly lower with GOOGL -4.89, AMZN +10.01, AAPL -3.00, FB -1.01, NFLX +14.44 (3.71%) and at a new all-time high, TSLA -18.33 (4.9%), NVDA -4.40, BIDU -6.97, BABA -4.30, IBM -.58, BOX -1.08, BA -12.25, CAT -5.38, and XLK -.37.


FINANCIALS, were mostly lower again with GS -3.24, JPM -.58, BAC -.14, C +.09, PNC unchanged, AIG unchanged, WFC +.06, and XLF -.07.  (We bought the JPM 7/110 calls @ $1.59 and added today @ $1.26 today and they closed $1.46).  


OIL, $65.07 -.78, after testing support near $63.59 yesterday we rallied back to plus on that day, but today we had an inside day giving no real direction. The news is mostly about the upcoming OPEC meeting. The stocks were mixed today with CVX -.43, APC -.56, BP +.16, COP -.34, APA, OAS, and HES were unchanged, MPC +.01, MRO +.21, RIG +.09, NE +.18, XOM -.13 and XLE -.17 (.23%).


METALS, $1,278 -1.50 the gold is trying to stabilizing around $1,295 and rally into resistance between $1,305-1310 that will take a lot of work to defeat. Today’s action was a test of the upper end. Silver was also down, and copper was lower but is still trying to hold over $3.00 but closed down @ $3.0470 -0595.

BITCOIN closed $6,730 -15. After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $6440.  Maybe I’m just a dinosaur, but every time I hear a 30-something tell me that this is the future and that it is “like digital gold”
I want to ask, “How’s that working for you with the market (real value) down by 66% from the highs over $20,000 in December?”  While it may be a store of value if you live in Argentina or some other area with rampant inflation and the possible losses of wealth by government action, I just don’t see either of those here, where I live.  That said, the futures are trying to hold $6.200 and can easily rally 20% to 7,700.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 6/18/2014

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Recovery, But Will it Hold ??

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 19th

 

Today started off with a sea of red in the premarket, and after the open it only got worse.  We were -264 at the low of the day after only 15 minutes. From there we started to see some positive signs in the market internals and we started to climb back to gain back half of the loss by 12:00. By the close we were down just 103.01 (.41%), NASDAQ +.64 (.01%), S&P 500 -5.91 (.21%) and the Russell+8.55%).  Market internals were actually positive with volume 3:2 in both places and A/D 4:3 on NYSE and 1:1 on NASDAQ with 2:1 new highs and 4:1 NASDAQ.  All in all a pretty good day for a -264 start.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, the disaster du jour was CBIO, giving an update on their clinical trials for a hemophiliac treatment.  Evidently it’s not going as well as expected because the stock was down by about 40% premarket and traded lower to close $9.11 -16.14 or 63.9%.  On the upside we had VSTM, signing an agreement with a Japanese firm for an oncology drug development and in the face of a $43million offering just last week has moved up $ .95 (17%) Friday and continued up another $2.05 (31.4 %). JD got a new investor in GOOGL for $550million and gapped up 2 but closed +.17.  SLDB received a lifting of a clinical hold by the FDA and finished +2.88 (11%).  PTCT presented info that showed solid results and received an upgrade from RBC, closing +10.33 or 27.5%.  CBPO received the okay from the China FDA for human testing for a new drug and finished the day +17.35 (21.5%).  And on a personal note, I own 10 shares of GEVO that traded up to $21 before closing +9.19 (261%)  Unfortunately, this was the result a 4000 share buy (and I can’t even recall the price) that has been reversed 1 for 20 not once, but twice.  Can’t win them all!!

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, with the exception of those in the sector mentioned above, Pharma had a pretty miserable day with CELG-.95, BIIB (on no news I could find) -16.53 (5.42%), REGN +.31, ISRG+.18, ABBV-1.22, MYL -.38, TEVA +.46, PRGO -.75, GILD -.99, VRTX -3.33, VRX -3.21 (11.95%) on the news that the FDA failed to approve their new drug for plaque psoriasis, INCY -2.10, ICPT-.69, INNT +.19 and IBB -.83 (.75%).

 

 

RETAIL, was mostly higher with M+.42, JWN +.86, KSS +.15, DDS -.34, SHLD -.01, JCP -.03, HD +.16, TJX +.79, TGT -.24, DKS -1.47, and the brands were URBN -.23, ANF +.42, RL +.87, UAA +.07, LULU +1.72, NKE -.04, KORS +.89 and XRT +.47. I still feel this group is extended and I can’t think of a single one I’d buy here.

 

FAANG,  were mixed to lower with GOOGL +19.73, AMZN +.03, AAPL -.51, FB +1.66, NFLX -3.98, TSLA ( with a video of a burning Model S) managed to close +9.24, NVDA -1.96, BIDU -6.20, BABA -1.95, IBM -1.05, BOX (my favorite tech stock +1.61 (6%), -6.08, CAT -2.52, and +.08.

 

 

FINANCIALS, were lower again with GS -1.20, JPM -.40, BAC -.10, C +.16, PNC -1.47, C +.16, AIG +.34, WFC +.11 and XLF -.05.  (we bought the JPM 7/110 calls @ $1.59 today and they closed $1.61)

 

 

OIL, $65.85 +.59, after testing support near $63.59 we rallied back to plus on the day.  The news is mostly about the upcoming OPEC meeting. All of the names on my list were higher with CVX +1.93, APC +1.15, BP -.03, COP +1.23, APA +1.27, PSX +.64, MPC +1.23, MRO +.41, RIG +.21, OAS +.19, HES +1.56, NE +.09, XOM +.10 and XLE +.74 (1%).

 

 

METALS, $1,280.10 +1.60 the gold is trying to stabilizing around $1,295 and rally into resistance between $1,305-1310 that will take a lot of work to defeat. Today’s action was a test of the upper end. Silver was also up, and copper was lower but is still trying to hold $3.10 but down .0380.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,710 +155. After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $6440.  Maybe I’m just a dinosaur, but every time I hear a 30-something tell me that this is the future and that it is “like digital gold

I want to ask, “How’s that working for you with the market (real value) down by 66% from the highs over $20,000 in December?”  While it may be a store of value if you live in Argentina or some other area with rampant inflation and the possible losses of wealth by government action, I just don’t see either of those here, where I live.  That said, the futures are trying to hold $6.200 and can easily rally 20% to 7,700.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 6/14/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Financials Disappoint Again

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 15th

 

Today was another disappointing day in the financials since they did everything that was expected, rallied, and then closed barely higher and sold off from the get go today.  “Risk on” is clearly back for the FAANG stocks and Bio / Pharma while there was weakness in Energy (even with oil higher) and financials and retail names.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, the start of the day, hands down, was ETSY.  The “craft –based online marketplace reported great growth and announced its intent to raise fees and further build out its offering and gave dramatically improved margins going forward.  The holder were rewarded with a move of $8.66 (26.25%) and up from $18 in February, a move of 130%.  Another “craft based” business, MIK didn’t fare quite as well with a decline in same store sales and volume, and closed 18.86-3.07 (14%).  RCL bought a controlling interest (66%) of top-end private cruise company, Silversea.  After they were downgraded by Morgan Stanley with their price cut to $110, the stock closed 113.50 +5.52 on the news.  Silversea’s cruises run to the $10s of thousands as opposed to the discounted rates we generally see advertised on TV.  DEST, a maternity brand that had growth in EBITDA and a jump of 43% in E-commerce closed $5.19 +1.74 (50.4%).  ORCL was also downgraded to neutral from hold with price objectives lowers at several shops closed -2.37 (4.9%). ADBE disappointed and after dropping from new all-time highs near 260 fell as low as $244 before bouncing back to be trading @ $250 in extended hours.  JBL beat and is trading +1.35 (4.5%).  Dropbox (DBX), an IPO in March at $21, had its best day ever trading as high as $38.09 and currently $36.12 +4.45 (14%).  

 

BIO/PHARMA, was a mixed to higher today with CELG +1.07, BIIB -1.23, REGN +7.39, ISRG +5.05, ABBV +1.17, MYL -2.07 (5%), TEVA -.55, PRGO +.52, GILD +.43, VRTX +.43, VRX -.05, INCY +3.10 (4.4%), INCT -.27, and IBB +1.26 (1.23%).

 

 

RETAIL, retail sales were up pretty big, but you couldn’t tell by the stocks today with M-.44, JWN -1.62, KSS -2.44, DDS -3.16, SHLD -.10, JCP -.11, WMT -.39, HD -.71, TJX -.17, TGT -.44, DKS +.18, FL +.43 and XRT -.35 (.71%). I still feel this group is extended and I can’t think of a single one I’d buy here.

 

FAANG, as mentioned above, the risk is back on for the group and the only 2 on my list that were lower aren’t really FAANG, but I include them because of their volatility, BA -1.43, and IBM -1.13, but the big names were GOOGL +18.47, AMZN +19.62, AAPL +.11, FB +4.34, NFLX +13.67 (3.6%), TSLA +12.51 (3.73%), NVDA +4.46, BIDU +.70, BABA +4.65 BOX +.56, and XLK +.58 (.81%).

 

FINANCIALS, were lower again with GS -.18, JPM -1.94, BAC -.33, C -1.13, PNC -3.76, AIG +.10, WFC -.42 and XLF -.25.  (We bought the 7/29 calls last week @ $.23 and we got stopped out today @ $ .11). 

 

OIL, $67.04 + .40, after testing support near $66.30 we rallied back to cloe near the highs (66.16).  The XLE moved in the opposite direction, but I don’t believe that it can continue to do that for long.  The news is mostly about the upcoming OPEC meeting, but price is the (We also added some of the 7/79 calls @ $ .88 and they closed $ .47).  All of the names on my list were lower with CVX -..56, APC -.24, BP +.56, COP -1.49, APA -.44, PSX -.20, MPC +.31, MRO -.29, RIG -.02, OAS -.13, HES +.48, NE -.22, XOM +.74, and XLE -.11.

 

 

METALS, $1,306 +4.70 the gold is trying to stabilizing around $1,295 and rally into resistance between $1,305-1310 that will take a lot of work to defeat. Today’s action was a test of the upper end. Silver was also +.21, copper was lower but is still solidly higher over the last week or so, a well- deserved rest after a move from just over $3.00.  It closed $319.95 -.0545.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,632 + 357. After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $6440.  Since futures are a “zero sum” game with a buyer for every seller.  If a contract makes a new low, as this one did today, it means that EVERYONE who bought it is both “wrong” and is losing money.  This chart is “broken” and today’s rally on the news that the SEC may be a little more lenient on the question of whether or not to consider ICO’s are securities.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 6/13/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

The Fed Speaks !!

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 13th

Today we had the Fed announcement (ho hum) of the Fed rate rise, which everyone knew what was coming, followed by a press conference that really held no surprises.  The initial response was good but we sold off in the last half hour, as we have every day this week.  Frankly, I’m a little perplexed about today, since I really was expecting a relief rally rather than a selloff.  All of the averages were lower with DJIA -119.53 (.47%), NASDAQ -8.09 (.11%), S&P 500 – 11.22 (.40), and the Russell -5.75 (.34%).  So, nothing extreme, but down nonetheless.  Internals were all tilted to the downside with NYSE volume 2:1 negative and A/D the same, but new highs were still 3:1.  NASDAQ was 1:1 volume and only 4:3 A/D and new highs were 7:1 positive.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we started off the day with a carryover of the excitement from the judge’s ruling that sent the “expecting to be acquired” group solidly higher.  Some other names had news, and we were split as to winning and losing news.  TAL was written up as a short with “questionable financials”.  The stock is a for profit educational company and YTD was up from $27 to yesterday’s all time high at $47.63 but collapsed to $38.41 before closing 41.11 -4.54 (9.95%).  ENPH, a chip equipment company had a new agreement to acquire a division of Sun Power and the stock up YTD from $1.83 closed 5.98 +1.48 (33%).  PVTL, an IPO back in April has traded up and reported for the first time since coming public and the street loved it and gapped up and closed $28.20 +6.99 (33%).  HEAR continued higher on the back of online gaming and was +3.05 (15.22%).

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was a mixed bag today with CELG -.12, BIIB +.72, REGN-1.25, ISRG -2.92, ABBV -1.21, MYL -2.11 (5.94%), TEVA +.31, PRGO +.20, GILD -.39, VRTX +.95, VRX +.27, INCY-.04, ICPT+1.10, INNT -.01 and IBB-.42.

 

 

RETAIL, was lower with M -1.62, JWN -1.19, KSS-2.34, DDS-4.99 (5.06%), SHLD +.29 (11.8%), JCP -.22 (7.3%), WMT-.09, HD -1.19, TJXN-1.02, TGT -1.05, AND DKS +.23, with the brands following the trend and XRT -.62 (1.23%).  I still feel this group is extended and I can’t think of a single on I’d buy here.

 

FAANG, we were mixed today with NFLX the standout +16.77 (4.61%) and  the rest GOOGL-4.18, AMZN +7, AAPL -1.63, FB -.05, TSLA +5.21, BA -5.62, NVDA-.18, BIDU +2.30, BABA-1.78, IBM-.52, BOX +-.17 and XLK-.37.

 

FINANCIALS, were lower after a GOOD RALLY AFTER THE Fed numbers but gave up most of the gains late in the day with GS +1.86, JPM +.06, BAC +.06, C-.17, PNC +-1.59, AIG +.46, WFC -.10 and XLF -.08 (We bought the 7/29 calls last week @ $.23 and they closed .16.) 

 

OIL, $66.64 +28, after moving lower in the morning we had an “outside day” closing higher.  This tends to be a strong signal for the commodity.  (We also added some of the 7/79 calls @ $ .88 and they closed $ .60).  Most of the names on my list were lower with XLE .29 (.38%).

 

 

METALS, $1,301 +1.90 the gold is trying to stabilizing around $1,295 and rally into resistance between $1,305-1310 that will take a lot of work to defeat. Today’s action was another quiet short range day. Silver was also lower, copper was lower but is still solidly higher over the last week or so, a well- deserved rest after a move from just over $3.00.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,275 -292. After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $6135.  Since futures are a “zero sum” game with a buyer for every seller.  If a contract makes a new low, as this one did today, it means that EVERYONE who bought it is both “wrong” and is losing money.  This chart is “broken.”

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 6/12/2018


Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Summit , What Summit ??

ATT—TWX Takes the Stage

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 13th



This is the answer to the question, “What if we had a historic summit and nobody cared?”  The bar was set low as to almost (but not quite) resulted in a bounce.  But it was not to be.  The biggest positive was that Trump didn’t do anything totally disrespectful to his hosts.  The market was just a wishy washy affair today with the market internals on NYSE pretty even at 1:1 volume and A/D and NASDAQ 2:1 volume and A/D 4:3.  Tomorrow we have the results of the Fed meeting, a foregone conclusion that rates will rise another .25%.  The question remains as to what the statement about what they say about conditions.  Today, after the close, the judge in the AT&T / TWX trial decided that the merger is okay to go forward.  The fallout was interesting in that AT&T moved lower (as is usually the case in the acquirer) and TWX moved up cutting the discount in half.  Other communications and broadcast stocks had varying gains and losses based on whether or not they were targets.  DIS lower, FOX higher, CMCST lower and VIA and CBS both higher.  Today’s action opens the door for more M&A in the group and there has been no shortage of candidates on either side.  Let the games begin and investment banking fee roll.

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, we also had news other than the Summit and the takeover, with GLMD, a biotech with a $300MM market cap and only a 10MM share float had positive phase 2 results for the liver ailment NASH and closed $17.59 +151% after trading as high as $27, while SAGE had success in 2 new depression meds and finished 175.76 +28.83 (19.62%).  HRB, coming off its annual tax season beat on top and bottom lines and increased its dividend traded lower to close 24.14 down from a daily high of $30.75 -5.46 (18.8%).  In the retail sector we had LE with a lower than expected loss closed 29.90 +6.40 (27.3%) while CASY sold off $& to 90 before coming back to close +.60 on the day.

BIO/PHARMA, was a mixed bag today with CELG -.80, BIIB -.50, REGN -2.42, ISRG +4.21, ABBV -.86, MYL +.09, TEVA +1.01, PRGO +.56, GILD -.23, VRTX +2.36, VRX -.21, INCY +1.22, ICPT +4.34 (5.6%), INNT +.03, and IBB +.93.


RETAIL, was higher with M +.20, JWN +1.24, KSS +.96, DDS +2.00, SHLD +.11 (4.56%), JCP +.05, WMT -.17, HD +1.67, TGT-.07, TJX +.41, DKS +.67, URBN+.88, ANF +.19, RL +.87, UAA -.10, LULU +2.95, NKE -.30, KORS +1.78 and XRT +.18.  I still feel this group is extended and I can’t think of a single on I’d buy here.

FAANG, we were mostly higher today with TSLA the standout again +10.52 (3.17%) and GOOGL +9.05, AMZN+13.42, AAPL+1.27, FB +1.09, NFX -1.04, BA ++.45, NVDA +2.17, BIDU -1.78, BABA +4.02, IBM +.30. BOX +.33 and XLK +.35.

FINANCIALS, were lower after a strong morning on but gave up most of the gains late in the day with GS -1.21, JPM -.63, BAC -.14, c -.32, PNC -1.26, AIG -.57, WFC -.13 and XLF -.07 (We bought the 7/29 calls last week @ $.23 and they closed .18.)  

OIL, $66.36 +26, after trying to rally back over $67, the oil sold off and while up on the day, it closed near the lows.  Tonight it is lower by $ .42.  We sold the balance of our expiring 6/76 calls at $1.51. (We also added some of the 7/79 calls @ $ .88 and they closed $ .67).  All of the names on my list were lower with CVX -.47, APC -.08, BP-.84, COP -1.21, APA-1.86, PSX -1.92, MPC -2.51, MRO-.11, RIG-.44, OAS -.32, HES -1.79, NE-.22, XOM-.73, and XLE -.59 (.76%).


METALS, $1,299.40 -3.80 the gold is trying to stabilizing around $1,295 and rally into resistance between $1,305-1310 that will take a lot of work to defeat. Today’s action was another quiet short range day. Silver was also lower, copper was lower but is still solidly higher over the last week or so, a well- deserved rest after a move from just over $3.00.

BITCOIN closed $6,567 -115. After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market went to new contract lows at $6440.  Since futures are a “zero sum” game with a buyer for every seller.  If a contract makes a new low, as this one did today, it means that EVERYONE who bought it is both “wrong” and is losing money.  This chart is “broken.”

Tomorrow is another day.

CAM
                                                                                                                                   


After the close 6/11/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

A Quiet and Noncommittal Market

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 12th

 

With all of the prospective news from Singapore, the Fed and the ECB this week, it seemed like no one wanted to be solidly committed to the overnight markets.  The DJIA was up about 75 but in the last 15 minutes it sold off to close +5.78 (.02%) while NASDAQ +14.41(.19%), S&P 500 +2.97 (.11%) and the Russell +2.19 (.13%).  The Transports broke out of a consolidation and even the late selloff was +116.50(1.07%). Market internals on both NYSE and NASDAQ were 1.5:1 and A/D were slightly positive with the new highs/new lows were 5:1 on NYSE and 8:1 on NASDAQ.  All in all, a neutral to slightly positive day with much focus on what happens in Singapore overnight.  Kind of a different version of the “pajama traders” being the tail that wags the dog, at least at the open.  As I mentioned in last night’s narrative, there’s plenty of news this week forcing traders to have a wait and see attitude.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, on the deal front we had the proposed takeover of USG by Knauf for $44 all cash.  This was only a 4.6% premium over Friday’s close, but the stock (31% owned by Berkshire Hathaway) is up from $32 in March.  Another “possible” deal rumor had BSX being bought by SYK caused a trading halt in both and sent BSX  to $37.40 before closing $34.32 +2.37(7.42%) and SYK -9.17 (5.13%) after they said that they don’t comment on rumors.  One last buyout was EVHC by KKR at $46.  The stock closed $44.65 +2.3%, but is also up from $36 last month and $25 in December.  On the earnings front RH beat top, bottom, and guidance and is trading $136.40 +17.58 (14.7%).  PLAY also beat and is now $54.10 +6.17(13%) after hitting $57.40.  FIT, Fitbit announced a new product line for kids and closed $7.28 +.93 (15%) on the news.  This stock was a new issue in June 2015 and after moving from $29.50 to $51.90 in its first 3 months and spent the last 3 years selling off to under $5.  The stock has a big short position and has come from those lows just last month to hit $7.59 today.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was a mixed bag today with CELG -.56, BIIB +3.39, REGN +1.52, ISRG +6.11, ABBV -.65, MYL +.41, TEVA +.08, PRGO +.32, GILD -.08, VRTX -1.92, VRX +.64, INCY -.65, ICPT -.07, INNT -1.56 (13.1%) and IBB -.15.

 

 

RETAIL, was also mixed with M-.13, JWN-.21, KSS +.44, DDS +1.16, SHLD +.11 (4.78%), JCP +.13, WMT -.11, HD +1.31. TJX +.07, TGT +1.04, DKS -1.03(2.7%), and the brands were URBN+2.08(4.5%), ANF +.18, RL -.20, UAA-.21, LULU +.65, NKE -.20, KORS +1.70(2.63%) and XRT +.52 (1.05%).  I still feel this group is extended and I can’t think of a single on I’d buy here.

 

FAANG, we were mixed to higher today with TSLA the standout +15.01 (4.73%) and GOOGL +8.09, AMZN +4.76, AAPL -.51, FB +2.30, NFLX +.83, BA +1.44, NVDA -1.48, BIDU+5.37, BABA +.38, IBM +.44, BOX -.07 and XLK +.08.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed after a strong morning on better 10 year notes were down (yields higher) but gave up most of the gains late in the day with GS +.70, JPM -.22, BAC +.05, C -.22, PNC -1.82, AIG +.01, WFC -.16 and XLF -.04. (We bought the 7/29 calls last week @ $.23 and they closed .21.) 

 

OIL, $66.10 +.36, after trying support just under $65 this morning we turned up mid-day and managed to close near the highs. There is clearly support from $64 -$65, and we sold half of the XLE 6/76 calls bought @ $ .84 on the 100% Up Rule @ $1.68 and they closed $1.36 tonight. (We also added some of the 7/79 calls @ $ .88 and they closed $ .87).  Most of the names on my list were higher with CVX +.86, APC +.29, BP +.08, COP +1.20, APA +2.06 (4.99%), PSX +.18, MPC-1.14, MRO +.48, RIG -.10, HES +.81, NE -.03, XOM -.41 and XLE +.45.

 

 

METALS, $1,304.50 +1.80 the gold is trying to stabilizing around $1,295 and rally into resistance between $1,305-1310 that will take a lot of work to defeat. Today’s action was another quiet short range day. Silver was HIGHER BY $ .219, but copper was lower by $ .0480 @$3.252.  A well- deserved rest after a move from just over $3.00.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,782 – 895. After being unable to maintain any kind of rally this market was hit over the weekend with rumors of some possible theft and fraud, and collapsed to just over the contract lows at $6,580. While there may be a rally of this oversold market, it’s not for me.  This chart is “broken.”

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 6/7/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Financials and Energy Push Us to New Highs !!

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 8th

 

Today’s headline is about our Options only account YTD gains are $8,647 or 86%.

 

The market was a split affair with only the DJIA on the plus side +95.02 (.38%) while NASDAQ was -54.17(.70%), S&P 500 -1.98(.07%), and the Russell-8.17(.49%).  This was caused by the FAANG and the chip stocks getting some well-deserved profit taking.  The entire gain in the DJIA was attributable to CVX +3.59(25 Dow points) and MCD +$7.13 or 49 Dow points, and HD +2.66 (18 Dow).  Market internals on NYSE were 1:1 volume and A/D with 3:1 new highs/lows, while NASDAQ was 1:1, 3:4, and 9:1 respectively.  The main drivers today were energy and retail.  We’ll hit the high points below.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, last night we pointed out that FIVE was +8 or so on their earnings report, but that turned out to be only half the story.  Today it continued higher and closed +17.72 or 21.8%.  CONN, and old favorite and a winner from $4 to $80 (2010-2014) and the round trip to $6 (2016) has again turned and closed $31.95 +6.25 or 24%. HEAR, mentioned here recently for its explosive move based on the gamer community’s appetite for their headsets.  Alliances with several gaming companies (not gambling) has driven the stock higher again today +3.73 (21%). SONC, casual dining, was +4.37 (16%) but there were some notable losers, specifically the chips with AMD reversing from almost $16 this morning to close $14.89-.78 (5%), STX -3.44(5.8%), LRCX -10.78(5.4%), and after the close AVGO -2.40 on weakness in its wireless chip category.  SJM also reported and the stock, down from 133 in March to 96.13 at the low today before closing $100.80 -5.40 (5%).  MDGL, mentioned yesterday at $325, up from 107 just 6 days ago, finally had a down day closing 281.06 -32.84 (10.4%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, couldn’t stand the prosperity and most were lower with CELG-.09, BIIB +1.62, REGN-5.79, ISRG-8.04, ABBV-.66, MYL+.53, TEVA+.18, PRGO-.01, GILD -.07, VRTX -.22, VRX -.46, INCY +.47, ICPT-1.95, INNT -1.12 ((%) and IBB -.78(.7%).

 

RETAIL, was mostly higher again today with M +.11, JWN+.26, KSS +1.75, DDS +1.37, SHLD +.09, JCP +.06, WMT +.35, HD +2,58, TJX +.20, TGT +.69 and DKS +.26.  The brands didn’t fare as well with URBN-.15, ANF -.57, RL -1.74, UAA-.68, LULU-1.49 NKE +.24, KORS -.02 and XRT +.29(.59%).

 

FAANG, with only BIDU +.81 and IBM +.93, the group was lower.  GOOGL -12.53, AMZN =7.65, AAPL -.78, FB -3.50, NFLX-6.05, NVDA -2.75, TSLA-2.92, BA -3.06, BABA-4.65, BOX-.83 and XLK -.58 (.80%).

 

FINANCIALS, continued higher today with GS +1.47, JPM +.44, BAC +.05, C +.24, PNC +.37, AIG -.07, WFC +.05 and XLF +.14(.50%).(we bought 50% more of the XLF 6/27.50 calls @ $ .34 and sold half @ $ .70 on the 100% Up Rule and the balance @ $ .64.  We replaced them with 7/29 calls @ .23.) 

 

OIL, $65.95 +1.22, after another disappointing build yesterday the Oil opened slightly higher and move back toward the recent highs around $66 and close right near the highs. There is clearly support from $63.50-$64, and we sold half of the XLE 6/76 calls bought @ $ .84 on the 100% Up Rule @ $1.68 and they closed $1.46 tonight. All the names on my list were higher with CVX +3.77, APC+2.20, BP +.98, COP +1.60, APA +2.17, PSX +.79, MPC +.39, MRO +.40, RIG +.71, OAS +.45, HES +.76, NE +.26, XOM +1.09 and XLE +1.15 (1.52%).  

 

 

METALS, $1,303 +1.60 the gold is trying to stabilizing around $1,295 and rally into resistance between $1,305-1310 that will take a lot of work to defeat. Today’s action was another quiet short range day. Silver was slightly lower but copper was the star again, touching $3.3155 a new contract high, before closing 3.275 + .0125.

 

BITCOIN closed $7.725 +138 after another short range day. Monday I said “the only good thing I can say about this market is that its volume is disappearing and is no longer as crowded a trade as it has been since the year end. Often lower prices with lowered volume is a good thing for an oversold futures market.”  I’ll stick with that sentiment with the warning that if it doesn’t get moving toward 8600 soon, it has the chance at hitting new lows near 6700.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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.

After the close 6/6/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Financials Recovery !!

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 7th

 

Today’s market was up from the start and really spent the whole day building from up 100 to up 200 near 1:00 and finally adding the last 150 to close +346.00 (1.4%), NASDAQ +51.38 (.67%), S&P 500 +23.50 (.85%), the Russell +11.33 (.68%), and the Transports +68.82 (.64%) even though the airlines were soft on fuel price rises.  The market internals were positive again with NYSE volume 2.5:1, A/D 9:5, and new highs 5:1 over new lows.  Over on NASDAQ we were 2:1, 9:5 and 11:1 respectively.  As I mentioned last night, we really needed to see some more rotation back into the financials, and that’s exactly what happened. I’ll discuss it in the sector section, but all 8 that I watch were higher led by BAC +3%. The other group that came to life was Bio/Pharma with all but one on my list higher including VRX +7.59%.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, Pharma was a star again today a little name off to the races premarket.  AXON, a stock that fell from $30 to $6 last September and traded as low as $1.02 last month gained $2.80 to $4.55 (160%) on the news that its “gene” therapy is being licensed by Oxford Biomedical for $842.5 million.  AXON started the day with a market cap of $188 million and an average volume of 1.4 million shares before it traded 111 million today.  Also in the news was ATHN whose CEO stepped down after pressure surrounding a domestic abuse issue in the past.  The change was greeted with a gap up of $12 before closing +6.30 (4.17%) and its activist shareholder is now more likely to take it private over $165.  AMBA fell last night and was -$7 before closing $43 -6.39(12.9%).  YY, a Chinese social media stock is embroiled in its own data problems and after beating both top and bottom lines finished -16.29 (13.46%).  On the upside was SIG, owner of Kay, Jared and other mall based jewelers beat on top and bottom line and while it missed on same store sales, it was less of a miss than expected.  The stock finished $52.27 +8.12 (18%) although it is down from $150 and has been a favorite short sale for about 2 years. FIVE also beat and the stock, up from $68 last week is currently trading $89.50 +8.50 (10.4%) since the 4:00PM close.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, as mentioned above all but one, PRGO -.79, were higher with CELG + .82, BIIB +5.11, REGN +3.28, ISRG +1.01, ABBV +.66, MYL +.49, TEVA +.28, GILD +1.68, VRTX +.25, VRX +1.71 (7.67%), INCY +.14, ICPT +.84 and IBB +1.52(1.4%).

 

RETAIL, was mostly higher again today with M +.05, JWN +.10, KSS +1.31, DDS -.04, SHLD -.09 (4%), JCP +.09, WMT -.02, HD +1.61, TJX +.18, TGT unch., DKS +.15, XRT +.34 (.7%) with the brands moving higher with URBN +.39, ANF +.59, RL +.04, UAA +.67, LULU +.10, NKE +.46, and KORS -.08.

 

FAANG, with the notable exceptions of TSLA +26.67(9.16%), and BA +11.50 (3.19%), the rest of the group was mixed with GOOGL -4.52, AMZN-.28, AAPL +.64, FB -1.59, NFLX +1.92, NVDA +.03, BIDU +3.96, BABA +-.19, IBM+1.18 , BOX +.23 and XLK +.47 (.65%).

 

FINANCIALS, last night I said I believed that this group was due a rotation back into its members and today we were off to the races from the start with GS +4.11, JPM +2.54, BAC +.92 (3%), C +1.50, PNC +2.25, AIG +.10, WFC +1.08 and XLF +.55 (2%).

(we bought 50% more of the XLF 6/27.50 calls @ $ .34 and they closed $ .59 +126%..

 

OIL, $64.73 - .79, after weekly build was higher than expected we sold off and got to within .05 of yesterday’s low before rallying back to close mid-range.  We stalled around $68.30 we came back down and closed near its low on Friday, but there is still support near $63.50-$64, and we bought the XLE 6/76 calls @ $ .84, and they closed $ .71 + .02.  

 

 

METALS, $1,301.40 -.80 the gold is trying to stabilizing around $1,295 and rally into resistance between $1,305-1310 that will take a lot of work to defeat. Today’s action was another quiet short range day. Silver was slightly higher (.15) but copper was the star.  Last night it ran all the way to $3.25 before closing $3.1985, and today we closed $3.2620 +another $ .0635. Today’s action was impressive and now we’ll have to see if   it consolidates its gains or goes right to contract highs @ $3.2955.

 

BITCOIN closed $7.557 -90 after another short range day with only 185 range we closed at the lows and slightly down.  Monday I said “the only good thing I can say about this market is that its volume is disappearing and is no longer as crowded a trade as it has been since the year end. Often lower prices with lowered volume is a good thing for an oversold futures market.”  I’ll stick with that sentiment.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

After the close 6/5/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

More New Highs !!

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 6th

 

Today’s market was flat for most of the day with the DJIA having a very short range day and closing -13.74 (.06%) while we had new highs and positive closes on the NASDAQ +31.40 (.41%), S&P 500 +1.93 (.07%), and the Russell +11.26 (.68%).  Internals were slightly positive with NYSE volume 1.2:1 and A/D 1.5:1 with new highs 4:1 over the new lows.  NASDAQ was 2:1 and 9:5 respectively with 6:1 in favor of new highs.  If you strip away all of the BS (Eagles uninvited to W.H.) there wasn’t much in the way of news.  On the “possibly political” news, Howard Schultz’s departure from SBUX was met by questions about his running for public office.  ISM numbers were also positive but we also heard that there are more jobs available than there are unemployed to fill them, giving rise to speculation of increased wage inflation either costing consumers at the checkout counter or declining margins for manufacturers.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, Pharma was a star again today with MDGL, which doubled last Thursday continued higher today to close 301.03 +27.79 (10.17%), CODX, a diagnostic company closed $5.28 +.84 after trading as high as $6.66 and up from $1.57 (300%) in the last 6 days.  SBUX was lower by 1.39 (2.4%) after the above mentioned announcement by Howard Schultz.  CCL was lower by $2.75 (4.34%) after giving uninspiring guidance, while GIII was +4.65 (10.84%) and SMAR, an IPO on April 27th traded as high as $32.79 before closing $28.95 +2.41 (9%) and up from $18.06 in its 6 week existence.  Another group that came back to life is 3-D printing with an announcement by DDD that introduced a new dental printer and was $14.09 +1.02 (7.8%) and up from $9 last month.  Unfortunately, when this group was in vogue in 2014 it traded $97.28.  The rest of the group, VJET, SSYS, FEYE, and XONE were unaffected.  AMBA had earnings after the close and although it beat both top and bottom line, the guidance for Q2 was soft and the stock is trading $44.50 -5.06.  Last, but clearly not least, TWTR +1.92 (5%) on news that it is being added to the S&P after coming up from under $30 in the last  5 weeks.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, the rest of the group was mixed with CELG -.68, BIIB -1.96, REGN -.25, ISRG +15.07, ABBV +.49, MYL +1.48 (newly approved drug), TEVA -.16, PRGO +.21, VRTX-3.93, VRX +1.60 (7.3%), INCY +.37, and IBB +.03.

 

RETAIL, was a star again today with M +3.01 (8.1%), JWN +.79, KSS +3.38, DDS +3.74, SHLD +.11, JCP +.07, WMT-.80, HD +.35, TJX +1.05, TGT +1.97, DKS +.59 while the brands were also strong with URBN +2.21, ANF +.70, RL +1.09, UAA +.93, NKE +.46, KORS +2.43 and XRT +.85 (1,8%).  This group is getting excessive here !!

 

FAANG, this group was mixed with GOOGL -2.06, AMZN +31.23, AAPL +1.52, FB -.12, NFLX +4.39, NVDA +.15, TSLA -5.29 (shareholder meeting starting shortly West coast), BA -.23, BIDU-1.19, BABA -.26, IBM +.37, BOX +.20, and XLK +.36.

 

FINANCIALS, this group is not performing as well as the rest of the markets even with rates stabilizing with GS -.42, JPM -.79, BAC -.30, C -.74, PNC -1.16, AIG +.06, WFC -.09, and XLF -.09 (we bought 50% more of the XLF 6/27.50 calls @ $ .34 and they closed $ .26).  This will be a great catch-up if the group can perform just at the market rate and I believe the rotation will favor it again.

 

OIL, $65.52 +.77, after its rally stalled around $68.30 we came back down and closed near its low on Friday, but today it traded down to test the support near $63.50-$64, and we bought the XLE 6/76 calls @ $ .84, and they closed $ .69.  The selloff to support is exactly how we traded the $77 calls last week for a major gain.  If this another turn, we can see $67-69.

 

 

METALS, $1,302.20 +4.90 the gold is trying to stabilizing around $1,290 and rally into resistance between $1,305-1310 that will take a lot of work to defeat. Today’s action was a good start. Silver was slightly higher but copper was the star.  Last night I said it was “encouraging” and today we traded right through all the overhead supply at $3.15 and ran all the way to $3.25 before closing $3.1985 +.064. Today’s action was impressive and now we’ll have to see how it consolidates its gains.

 

BITCOIN closed $7.647 +120 after testing $7390 again and turning up to close right near the highs.  Last night I said “the only good thing I can say about this market is that its volume is disappearing and is no longer as crowded a trade as it has been since the year end. Often lower prices with lowered volume is a good thing for an oversold futures market.”  I’ll stick with that sentiment.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 6/4/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Early is as Bad as Wrong

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 5th

 

Today’s market was up early with several big DJIA stocks pushing us higher.  Then we sat in a $30-40 range for the Dow while the NASDAQ and QQQs moved toward new highs.  I mentioned last night that the QQQs were the strength and that they were the only ones to actually make new recovery highs in March, after the February sell-off. Today’s indexes were all higher with the notable exception of the Transports -79.93 (.73%) after hitting a 4 month high before reversing to close lower.  DJIA +178.48 (.72%), NASDAQ +52.13 (.69%), S&P 500 +12.25 (.45%) and the Russell +5.39(.33%).  Market internals were only average with 2:1 volume on both and 9:5 and 4:3 A/Ds.  The one outstanding stat was new highs / new lows 5:1 on NYSE and 8:1 NASDAQ.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, the Immunology Conference in Chicago brought a deal of news on current trials.  On the negative side was NKTR with disappointing results that took the stock from $90.35 -37.78 (41.82%).  The stock was up from $22 in November and traded around $112 just 8 weeks ago.  LOXO was higher by $22 before reversing to close 183.83 -2.86.  It too had a run from $116 to $208.95 in just the last month. ZYME has also been on a tear from $12 last month to hit a new high on Friday@ $29.  It was upgraded both Friday and as lately as this morning by Wells Fargo raising their target from $20 to $37.  Unfortunately, if you paid in the high $20s for it Friday you weren’t too happy about its close today of $19.19-2.57 (12.21%).  BPMC presented and disclosed that it is now entitled to up to $346 million in royalties from Stone Pharma.  Unfortunately it was -7.81 (9.24%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, the rest of the group was mixed with CELG-.54, BIIB +3.61, REGN +5.21, ISRG-1.32, ABBV =.95, MYL +1.76 (4.5%), TEVA -.26, PRGO -.28, GILD +2.00, VRTX-2.40, VRX -.03, INCY +.13, INNT -.13, and IBB -.64.

 

RETAIL, was higher with the exception of SHLD, still terminal, was lower by .12 (5.26%) and down from $3.59 (40%) in just the last 5 trading days.  The rest of the group was M +1.54, JWN +1.37, KSS +3.19, DDS +4.81 (5.79%), JCP +.10, WMT +2.35, HD +3.90, TJX +2.53, TGT +3.54, DKS +1.24 and the brands were ANF +2.26, RL +.60, UAA +1.29 (6.04%), LULU +3.31, NKE +1.06, KORS +.72 and XRT +1.02(2.2%).

 

FAANG, this group was mostly higher with GOOGL +17, AMZN +25.15, AAPL +2.11, FB -.81, NFLX +3.07, NVDA +7.38, TSLA +3.93, BA +3.88, BIDU +12.04, BABA +4.65, IBM +1.05, BOX -.19, and XLK +.57.

 

FINANCIALS, this group is not performing as well as the rest of the markets even with rates stabilizing.  GS +1.31, JPM +.05, BAC unch., C +.06, PNC +1.42, AIG +.49, WFC +.06, and XLF +.09 (we bought 50% more of the XLF 6/27.50 calls @ $ .34 and they closed $ .34).  This will be a great catch-up if the group can perform just at the market rate.

 

OIL, $64.75 -1.06, after its rally stalled around $68.30 we came back down and closed near its low on Friday, and I bought the XLE 6/75 puts. The title of today’s note is based on this trade, which we got stopped out at the 50%, the low of the day (.42) before the oil fell another $1.06 and the puts closed $ .93.  I was 2 hours early and that meant wrong, and a loss.

 

METALS, $1,297.30 -2.00 the gold is trying to stabilizing around $1,290 and rally into resistance between $1,305-1310 that will take a lot of work to defeat. Today’s action was of no significance. Silver was slightly higher and copper is trying to make some headway, but any discussion of an economic slowdown in the EU keeps it in check.  Today’s action back to $3.13 is very encouraging.

 

BITCOIN closed $7.527 +62 after being +400 early, but unable to hold the gains.  The only good thing I can say about this market is that it’s volume is disappearing and is no longer as crowded a trade as it has been since the year end.  Often lower prices with lowered volume is a good thing for an oversold futures market.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 5/31/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Trade Issues Front & Center

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 1st

 

Today’s market was lower from the start and only got worse as tariff news and expected retaliatory response were announced.  Oils decline after the rally yesterday added to the problem.  Lastly, news of Deutsche Bank making it on the Fed’s “troubled” list complicated issues for banks around the world.  Clearly, Italy may or may not matter, but DB clearly matters to all.  We closed down across the board with DJIA -251.94 (1.02%), NASDAQ -20.33 (.27), S&P 500 -18.74 (.69%) the Russell -14.38 (.87%) and the DJ Transports barely lower at -2.44 or just .02%.  Market internals was negative with NYSE volume 2.5:1 and A/D 2:1 and NASDAQ 2:1 and 3:2 respectively, while the new high on NYSE were 3:1 positive and NASDAQ just over 3:1.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

 

Other names in the news, we had a couple of great moves both preopen and at the bell with MDGL trading opening $175.20 +66 (61%) and then immediately moving much higher (273.19 +165, 178%) on the news that its trial on a new drug for NASH, a non-alcohol related liver disease.  Also running higher was VKTX, who has a similar drug opening $6.76, moving up to $10.25 and finally closing $9.99+5.02 (101%).  Earnings issues at DLTR we a miss all around and this long-term darling fell $8 at the open and continued lower with the market, settling $13.76 (14.3%), and DG shared that fate and finished down $9.04(9.37%). GLNG got hit on both its earning miss and the decision of SLB to end its participation into a joint venture with the company. It opened 29.85 -5 and continued lower all day to close $25.98 -8.70 (25%). GMLP the company’s MLP was also hurt and finished $16.77 -3.57 (17.5%). BOX reported a smaller loss than expected and better revenues, but I guess not good enough. The stock gapped down and got worse all morning before recovering a bit to close $25.68 -2.10 (7.56%). MU was downgraded by Morgan Stanley and it fell 4.98 (7.96%).  Late numbers for COST and while it also beat the stock is currently selling off with a last of $194 -4.24 (2.14%).  ULTA reported a beat and its stock was down 6.57 at the close and is now trading $239.80 down another $7.  LULU was a bright spot with beats and good guidance and is trading $112 +7 (6.6%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was solidly in the red with CELG +.90, BIIB -.47, REGN-.20, ISRG -.4, ABBV-4.08(3.95%), MYL-1.02, TEVA-.15, PRGO-2.59(3.4%), GILD -.29, VRTX-2.64, VRX-.18, INCY+.40, INNT +.01, ICPT-3.35(4.55%) and IBB -.08.

 

 

RETAIL, was lower with only 2 exceptions, TJX +.52, and LULU, reported after the close +6.47 (6.13%), M -.67, JWN+.02, KSS -1.16, DDS-1.18, SHLD -.33 (10.28% and yes, still terminal on earnings and store closings), JCP -.01, WMT-1.53, HD-.54, TGT-.58, DKS-1.75, FL-.59, URBN-.19, RL-1.74, ANF-1.36(5.3%), NKE-.43, KORS-3.01(5%), GPS-.90 and XRT-.89(1.88%).

 

 

FAANG, this group was mostly lower with only GOOGL and AMZN the only real gainers, GOOGL +28.06, AMZN +5.68, AAPL -.68, FB +4.55, NFLX-1.82, NVDA-.54,  TSLA-7.34, BA-6.03, BABA +.29, BIDU +.93, IBM-1.35, BOX -2.06(7.42%) and XLK +.02.

 

FINANCIALS, this group was under pressure from the fallout of the U.S. Fed classifying DB a "troubled” institution.  GS-3.45, JPM-1.28, BAC-.32, C +.01, PNC-.91, AIG-.28, WFC-.24 and XLF -.26 (.95%), (we bought the XLF 6/27.50 calls @ $ .35 and they closed $ .26).

 

 

OIL, $67.04 -1.17, after its rally yesterday we had an inside day and gave back most of yesterday’s gains closing near the lows. I considered this a problem and although I’d really like to get long again, I just couldn’t pull the trigger today. The stocks were all lower with the exception of RIG +.08, the rest were CVX-.86, APC-.69, BP unchanged, COP-.66, APA-.71, PSX-2.70, MPC-.52, MRO-.10, OAS-.01, HES-.54, NE-.22(3.8%), XOM-.26, and XLE-.58.  (We bought XLE 6/75 calls @ $.88 and we sold the first half on the 100% Up rule @$1.76 and the balance @ $2.06).  As I’ve said, I’d like to get back in and they closed $1.81 today.

 

 

METALS, $1,300.10 -1.40 the gold rose after stabilizing around $1,290 and rally into resistance between $1,305-1310 that will take a lot of work to defeat. Today’s action was of no significance. Silver and copper were slightly higher and copper is trying to make some headway, but any discussion of an economic slowdown keeps it in check below $3.10.

 

BITCOIN closed $7.555 +208 and had another short- range trading day before closing near the highs of the day. This brings us close to the $6500 level at contract lows, and while we may find some support down here, I can’t take any position without some sideways action to define the risk.

 

 Tomorrow is another day.

  

CAM

 

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After the close 5/30/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Guess Italy Doesn’t Matter

Russell at New All Time High !!

 

FOR TRADING MAY 31st

 

Today’s market was higher from the start and shrugged off the Italian (potential disaster) and built all day.  The biggest story has to be the Russell making headway for the past week and down less than .20% yesterday and booming ahead today to close +24.34 (1.5%) while DJIA +306.33(1.26%), NASDAQ +65.86(.89%), S&P500 +34.15(1.27%) and Transports +163.51 (1.52%).  Market internals were dramatically positive on the NYSE with volume 7:1 and A/D 4:1, and new high 146/ new lows 38.  NASDAQ was a bit more subdued with volume 2:1, A/D 2.2:1 and highs/ lows 212 / 38.  Energy was a favorite, not so much for the $1.10 bounce back in crude as much as the 3.8% move on XOM.  This received an upgrade, and in our XLE calls bought yesterday XOM carries a 22% weight for that ETF. I’ll discuss this further in the Oil Sector comments.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had earnings from DKS, which beat both top and bottom lines and gapped up and closed n$38.35 +7.92 (25.98%). MOV also beat and also gapped up and finished+7 (16.59%).  KORS wasn’t so lucky and while it beat on all metrics, some question about Jimmy Choo’s sent the stock down 7.81 (11.45%).  After the close BOX reported with a smaller loss and better revenues but evidently not quite enough and while the stock did traded as low as $25.64 (-2.14) it has recovered to $26.80, down just over $1.  Over in Biopharma we had an FDA action for CRSP, stopping a new trial for its Sickle Cell Anemia and the stock traded down from $73.59 to as low as $55.00 but has bounced back to $59.47 -14.90 (20%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was finally having across the board gains before the CRSP news, which caused a downtick on the only one on my list to move lower, VRTX -2.24, the rest are CELG +.14, BIIB +7.31 (2.55%), REGN +4.39, ISRG +5.03, ABBV +2.32, MYL +.80, TEVA +.02, PRGO +1.74, GILD +.38, VRX +.40, INCY +.81, ICPT +2.81, INNT +.58 and IBB +1.43 (1.34%).

 

RETAIL, was mostly higher with M +.75, JWN-.06, KSS +.32, DDS +1.38, SHLD -.24 (6.98% and yes, still terminal), JCP +.04, WMT +1.67, HD +3.07, TJX +1.41, TGT +1.27, DKS +7.92 (25.98%), FL +.32, KORS -7.62 (11%), ANF +.36, RL +1.05, UAA +.74, NKE +1.57, GPS +.46 and XRT +.63(1.35%).

 

 

FAANG, this group was mostly lower with GOOGL -16.01, AMZN +4.01, AAPL -.56, FB +1.01, NFLX -1.28, NVDA-.53, TSLA +4.57, BA-7.19 (2%), BABA -1.15, BIDU -1.75, IBM-2.09, BOX -.06 and XLK -.38.

 

 

FINANCIALS, this group was decimated yesterday on the Italian situation but bounced back a bit.  GS +2.57, JPM +2.51, BAC +.53, C +.84, PNC +3.06, AIG +.89, WFC +1.17, and XLF +.54 (2%) (we bought the XLF 6/27.50 calls this afternoon @ $ .35 and they closed $ .38).

 

 

OIL, $68.21 + 1.48, after its 5th day down the oil was back at support and bounced back a bit. As mentioned above, XOM got an upgrade and it was higher by almost 4%.  The crude was up overnight and we took full advantage of the pop. All the  stocks were higher with CVX +3.78, APC +3.19, BP +1.17, COP +2.34, APA +1.72, PSX +2, MPC +1.94, MRO +.82, RIG +.48, OAS +.70, HES +1.53, NE +.35, XOM +3.00 and XLE +2.11(2.84%), (we bought XLE 6/75 calls @ $.88 and we sold the first half on the 100% Up rule @$1.76 and the balance @ $2.06).

 

 

METALS, $1,301 +2.5 the gold rose after stabilizing around $1,290 and rally into resistance between $1,305-1310 that will take a lot of work to defeat.  Silver and copper were slightly higher and copper is trying to make some headway, but any discussion of an economic slowdown keeps it in check below $3.10.

 

BITCOIN closed $7.347 -1.50 and had another short- range trading day before closing near the lows of the day. This brings us close to the $6500 level at contract lows, and while we may find some support down here, I can’t take any position without some sideways action to define the risk.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 5/29/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Problems in Italy Crush Yields!!

 

FOR TRADING MAY 30th

 

Today’s market was down pretty hard from the start but it really got rolling after 11:00 when we broke the opening range.  We accelerated to down 300 or so and tried again to rally but couldn’t and traded as low as down 500 and we rallied back to down just  391.64 (1.58%), NASDAQ -37.26 (.50%), S&P 500 -31.47 (1.16%), the Russell -3.28 (.20%) and the Transports -144.21 (1.3%).  The issue for the day was the Italian banks and the fact that they continue to value their positions at Par (full price) instead of marking them to market to reflect current values.  That was what hurt the financials, and the other major sector in decline was Energy.  Oil has fallen from almost $73 back to $66 (9.6%) and that caused all of energy stocks to fall Thursday and Friday, but the ability to bounce off support near $65-66 left that sector (discussed below) only mixed.  Market internals were weak, but not as weak as one might expect with NYSE volume 3:1 negative while A/D was only 1.4:1 down.  At NASDAQ we were 4:3 down and the A/D were 3:2 negative.  All that said, the Russell, without foreign exposure finished barely down on the day.  As I mentioned, the Italian banks was the cause of the weakness, but I must point out that the 10 Yr. Notes, which we discussed last week as having moved from 2.9% all the way up to 3.12%, were the featured “flight to safety” play and that drove rates from 3.1 less than a week ago to close today 2.78%, literally down over 10% in 4 trading days. As pointed out before, the velocity of this move is pretty unheard of, but it shows how skittish markets have become.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

 

Other names in the news, before the open we had a pretty major move higher in OLED, maker of LED screens, as high as $117.35 +17 on the news that Apple will be using their screens in future IPhones. It sold off with the market but closed +3.95 (+3.96%). MOMO, the Chinese mobile social network site reported strong numbers and traded higher by $5.91 (15.17%) closing near the highs of the day and only a hair from all-time highs.  After the close, CRM reported great numbers and after closing 126.99 -1.08, ran to $133.74 and is currently trading +6.75 (5.32%).  NXPI and QCOM got a bit of a bounce on the news that China is getting closer to approving the purchase by QCOM.  They both finished a bit lower with the market, awaiting an outright approval.

HPQ had inline earnings and a revenue beat and inline guidance and after trading down to $21 and up to 22.08, is now 20.24 just lower by $ .06.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was lower again today without much news and only BIIB +.88, and REGN +2.78 higher with CELG -.80, ISRG-1.93, ABBV -2.08, MYL-.70, TEVA-.59, PRGO-1.04, GILD-.18, VRTX-2.26, VRX-.61, INCY-1.37, ICPT-.32, INNT-.83 and IBB-.48(.45%).

 

RETAIL, was a bright spot today and closed mixed, but the difference between the stores and the brands was obvious with M +.70, JWN+.03, KSS +1.41, DDS +2.90, SHLD -.05JCP+.07 (3%), WMT unchanged, TJX +.25, TGT +.59, and DKS +.77.  The brands were lower with RL-2.04, ANF-.07, UAA-.20, NKE-1.06, GPS +.14, and XRT -.03.

 

FAANG, this group was mostly lower with GOOGL -16.01, AMZN +4.01, AAPL -.56, FB +1.01, NFLX -1.28, NVDA-.53, TSLA +4.57, BA-7.19 (2%), BABA -1.15, BIDU -1.75, IBM-2.09, BOX -.06 and XLK -.38.

 

FINANCIALS, this group was decimated with the Italian banks news and the continued fall in rates, spelling uncertainty of what rates the group can count on for their loan business.  They were lower across the board with GS -7.86 (3.2%), JPM-4.49 (4.06%), BAC-1.13(3.75%), C -2.57 (3.76%), PNC -6.30 (4.25%), AIG -.93, WFC -1.75, and XLF -.90 (3.23%). (we bought the 6/28 calls @ $.50 and they were closed @ $.21 on our 50% Down rule + the gap at the open).

 

OIL, $66.73 -1.15, on its 5th day down the oil is back near some major support just under $66. The issue last week was news of increases in production by Russian and   OPEC countries to make up some shortfalls from sanctions on Iran and the problems in Argentina and Brazil, but this drop was more than likely the result over concern that the Italian situation calls into question EU continued growth and demand.  The stocks were mixed to lower with CVX-.80, APC -.29, BP +.23, COP +.24, APA -.27, PSX +1.21, MPC +.90, MRO -.03, RIG_.12, OAS +.05, HES +.34, NE +.01, and XLE -.23 (we bought XLE 6/75 calls @ $.88 and they closed $.98).

 

METALS, $1,299 -4.70 the gold fell after trying to stabilize around $1,290 and rally into resistance between $1,305-1310 that will take a lot of work to defeat.  Silver and copper were slightly lower and copper is trying to make some headway, but any discussion of an economic slowdown keeps it in check below $3.10.

 

BITCOIN closed $7.497 +77 and had another lower range trading 7055 before closing near the highs of the day. This brings us close to the $6500 level at contract lows, and while we may find some support down here, I can’t take any position without some sideways action to define the risk.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

  

CAM

 

 

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Memorial Day

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 29th

 

There’s not much to say since we didn’t have any market today but I just want to remind everyone that there were two new orders in the Weekly Strategies last night:

 

Buy XLE 6/75 CALLS @ $ .88 OR BETTER, $100M buys–12— OPTIONS -6

Buy F 6/10.87 PUTS @ $ .39 OR BETTER, $100M-buys-24—OPTIONS-12

 

The overnight action in the Oil market and the Bonds was a bit extreme, as is usually the case in the thin, overnight and holiday sessions.  I am looking for a gap down to get filled on the XLE calls.

 

I’ll be back tomorrow with a complete Daily Note…

 

CAM

 

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After the close 5/24/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Have a Great Memorial Day !!

 

FOR TRADING MAY 25th

 

Today’s market started off with slightly lower and continued down to make the low for the day by 11:15 near -280 on the DJIA but spent all day trading higher, managing to close -75 (.30%).  NASDAQ was -1.53 (.02%), S&P 500 -5.53 (.20%), the Russell +.61 (.04%) and the Transports -4.27 (.04%). Market internals were pretty solid on a down day with volume on NYSE 3:4 negative but A/D 1:1, while NASDAQ volume was 5:4 positive and A/D1:1.  New highs were positive in both locales.  The A.A.I.I. Sentiment survey showed gains in both Bulls (+1.9%) and Bears (+4.6%) while the neutral reading lost 6.5%.  Bulls are right at long-term average, bears still below, and neutral still above its average.  This doesn’t really help much, but not all indicators provide clear guidance all the time.  That would just make it too easy.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

 

Other names in the news, retail continued with earnings that went in both directions.  DECK beat top and bottom and gave good guidance and 114 before settling at 108.26 +4.59 (4.43%) while GPS missed and is -2.74 ((7.8%) and ROST -4.36 (5.26%).  Casual dining, ZOES missed and is -3.28 (22%) and ADSK also missed and is currently -6.93 (4.99%).  Chip stocks have been higher lately but the two leaders, AMD +.31 (2.37%) has moved from just under $10 to $13.41(34%) and MU +1.52 (2.53%) and up from $45 to 61.49 (36%) in the same period.

 

As if Brazilians didn’t have enough problems, their currency having declined from $ .60 to $ .26 over the last 5 years, corruption that involved the government and ultimately caused a president to be impeached, they are now troubled with downgrades of the country’s debt, and are facing demonstrations and a general strike by truck drivers over of the cost of diesel fuel.  This threatens an already weak economy and is causing major problems for the state-owned, PBR -2.33 (15.42%) today.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed again today without much news with CELG ++1.88,BIIB +.66, REGN -.70, ISRG -.92, ABBV -2.46, MYL-.30, TEVA +.60, PRGO -.05, GILD-.84, VRTX -.01, VRX +.02 and IBB +.09.

 

RETAIL, as mentioned above it was a split-decision in retail with M+.58, JWN+.73, KSS +2.25 (3.6%), DDS +1.05, SHLD -.06, JCP _.01, WMT -.17, HD +.49, TJX +1.30, TGT -.26, DKS +.36, URBN+1.39, ANF +.48, RL +1.47, UAA +.48, NKE +.84 and XRT +.38(.82%).

 

 

FAANG, this group was mixed with GOOGL -.51, AMZN +3.39, AAPL +.14, FB -.92, NFLX +6.08 (1.75%), NVDA +.23, TSLA -1.65, BA -.49, BABA +1.10, BIDU +.21, IBM -.67, BOX unchanged, and XLK -.08.

 

 

FINANCIALS, this group was lower with the rate on the 10 yr. notes, with GS -1.80, JPM-1.10, BAC -.28, C -.82, PNC -1.23, AIG -.43, WFC -1.44 and XLF -.16 (we bought the 6/28 calls @ $.50 and they closed @ $.39).

 

 

OIL, $70.71 – 1.13, on its 3rd day down the oil is back near some major support just over $70. The issue was news of possible increases in production by Russian and   OPEC countries to make up some shortfalls from sanctions on Iran and the problems in Argentina and Brazil. The stocks were lower with CVX -2.09, APC-1.27, BP -.85, COP -.55, PSX -.13, MPC +.24, MRO -.16, RIG -.35, OAS -.14, HES -.72 and XLE -1.28(1.64%).

 

 

METALS, $1,304.40 + 14.60 the gold rallied hard after trying to stabilize around $1,290. There is substantial resistance between $1,310-1320 that will take a lot of work to defeat.  Silver and copper were slightly higher and copper is trying to make some headway, but any discussion of an economic slowdown keeps it in check below $3.15.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $7.557 -90 and had another lower range and close. This brings the decline for the month to just under 26%.  While we may find some support down here around contract lows, I can’t take any position without some sideways action to define the risk.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 5/23/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Retail Rings the Register Today !!

 

FOR TRADING MAY 24TH

 

Today’s market started off with slightly lower with the carryover of the concerns over the presidential statements on trade, again.  After the move lower we had a consolidation between 24,670 and 24,800 until the Fed’s minutes from the last meeting and we broke through unchanged and closed at the high of the day +52.19 (.21%), S&P500 +8.84 (.32%), NASDAQ +47.49 (.64%), the Russell +2.37(.15%), Transports couldn’t make it to green but was only -14..15(.13%).  Market internals were pretty much where you would expect from seesaw day with NYSE volume slightly negative at 4:3 down but A/D managed a slight gain to 15:14.  Over at NASDAQ we were positive on both at 1.5:1 and 4:3 respectively.  New lows outnumbered new highs on NYSE but NASDAQ was 2:1 in favor of the highs.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, TIF reported before the open and blew away the top and bottom lines as well as increased margins.  After opening at $119.29, the low of the day we continued up to close +23.83 (23%). LOW missed both top and bottom but not as badly as expected and gave good forward guidance and gapped up $5 and added another 4 to $94.69 +8.94 (10.4%). RL beat and was also rewarded with a gap higher and a return to prices not seen since late 2015 @ $133.31 +16.70 (14.23%). TGT beat on revenues but margins were squeezed and the market punished it with a loss of          4.43 (5.74%) and down over $6 since yesterday’s high. LB beat top and bottom line and the stock moved +$2.00 before giving poor guidance that took it back -4 to trade $32-2.05 (6%), while WSM beat top, bottom and guidance and is trading +6.50 (13%). HPE had a great report with increased revenues and profits as well as margins but gave soft guidance and it had its worst single day loss, and worst 4 day losing streak since June 2016.  It finished the day $15.58 -1.83 (10.5%). Last, GE, everyone’s least favorite DJIA stock was down hard at $14.18 -1.11(7.26%) after the CEO said that he couldn’t make any promises for the dividend in 2019.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was higher without much news with CELG +.97, BIIB +2.81, REGN -.62, ISRG +4.03, ABBV -.63, MYL +.24, TEWVA +.15, PRGO-.61, GILD +.24, VRTX +.17, VRX unchanged and IBB +.57 (.53%).

 

RETAIL, as discussed above, today was mostly higher with positive news in this sector with M+.41, JWN +1.73, KSS +1.45, DDS +1.90, SHLD -.03, JCP unchanged, WMT -.37, HD unchanged, TJX +.43, TGT-4.23 (5.6%), DKS +1.37, URBN-.41, ANF +.19, RL +17.20, UAA +.23, NKE +.03 and XRT +.33 (.72).

 

 

FAANG, this group was higher across the board with GOOGL+9.73, AMZN +20.12, AAPL +1.15, FB +3, NFLX +13.33 (4.22%), NVDA +3.98, TSLA +4.29, BA +3.98, BABA +.76, BIDU +.73, IBM -.49, BOX +.20 (we bought the 6/29 calls today at $1.40 and they were stopped out on our 50% Down rule) and XLK +.30 (.43%).

 

 

FINANCIALS, this group was a replay of yesterday, in reverse with most closing slightly lower but on the highs of the day with GS -.19, JPM-.52, BAC -.48, C -.84, PNC -1.15, AIG -.98, WFC +.92, and XLF -.23 (we bought the 6/28 calls @ $.50 and they closed @ $.54).

 

OIL, $71.76 -44, after down to $71.19 and up to 72.26 we close mid-range on the day. We continue to hold support at ever higher levels. The issue of higher prices for gas to negate some of the tax cut for the lower income groups seems to be on no one’s mind but mine.  I know it’s getting boring to read the same thing about continuing to find support but the level is now closer to $71.  The stocks were mixed again with CVX +.47, APC -.19, BP -.63, COP -1.01, PSX +.20, MPC +.38, MRO+.09, RIG-.20, OAS +.33, HES -.70, and XLE -.01.

 

METALS, $1,289.60 -2.40 the gold is clearly trying to rebuild since its dramatic 10 day decline from $1,325.  We are consolidating here around $1,290 but there is still work to do. There is substantial resistance between $1,295 – 1,305 that will take a lot of work to defeat. A close under $1,285 could mean a test of $1,260.Today’s slightly lower close means just more rebuilding is necessary. Silver and copper were also lower and copper‘s decline of over $ .06 (2%) is a major setback.

 

BITCOIN closed $7,647 -538 and the sell-off is very troubling for the bulls.  It is trading lower again tonight but unless we see some support between $6,500-7,000 we will be looking at new contract lows (5880).

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 5/22/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 23rd

 

Today’s market started off with slightly higher futures overnight but a small gain on the DJIA +55.  We had nothing really pushing the market higher and the president’s comments with the South Korean president about trade were at best tepid.  His wishy-washy talk about the planned meeting with North Korean president didn’t help.  The market was further depressed by some of the big Dow names like BA (62 Dow points), CAT (19), HD (20), MCD (14), MMM (20), and UNH (19).  Market internals were only slightly negative with NYSE volume and A/D at 3/2 down while NASDAQ was 1:1 volume and 4:3 negative A/D, while we closed -178.88(.72%) in the DJIA , NASDAQ -15.59 (.21%), S&P 500-8.57 (.31%) and the Russell -12.20 (.75%).

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, TOL reported earnings and beat on both top and bottom but commented on the increased price of lumber. Prices have increased from $460 per 1000 board feet, to over $600 just since March.  TOL was -4.17 (9.56%), and the rest of the group followed with LEN -1.40 (2.7%), DHI -.75 (1.8%) and KBH -.65 (2.45%).  Also reporting after the close was URBN which was lower by 1.08 (2.55%) and beat top and bottom, traded $44 and then $39 and is currently $40.26 -.97 more.  Another company that actually miss was RRGB with top, bottom, and guidance was trading $57.95 -2.73 prior to the report and fell another 9.30 (-16%) for a 20% decline for the day. Auto “second market products” also fell when AZO reported a beat on bottom line but a slight miss on revenues and traded up 3% premarket and moved up to $710 before they mentioned on the conference call that “input costs” were a problem and moved it down to close $602 -63.09(9.59%).  The two other names in the group followed suit with ORLY -8.73 (3.2%) and AAP up to 125.89 and then down to close $115.33-3.82 (3.2%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed without much news with CELG +1.92, BIIB +2.02, REGN -1.92, ISRG _8.77, ABBV unchanged, MYL -.24, TEVA -.07, PRGO+.28, GILD +.20, VRTX +.06, VRX -.01, and IBB +.47 (.45%).

 

RETAIL, with the exception of TJX +2.35 (2.77%) on earnings, the rest of the group was lower.  JCP lost another CEO (moving to Lowes) and fell $.15 (6%) with the rest of the group, M -1.49, JWN-.07, KSS (also beat) -4.86 (7.42%), DDS -5.07(6.35%), SHLD -.25 (8.9%), WMT -1.06, HD -2.95, TGT -1.47, DKS-.42, URBN-1.26, ANF -.87, RL -.06, UAA -.27, NKE -.07 and XRT -.82 (1.75%).

FAANG, this group was lower across the board with GOOGL-8.70, AMZN -2.47, AAPL -.47, FB -.59, NFLX -.38, NVDA -1.54, TSLA -9.36 (3.3%), BA -8.02, BABA -1.55, BIDU-.54, IBM-.40, BOX -.83 (2.98%)(we bought the 6/29 calls today at $1.40 and they closed .87) and XLK -.10.

 

 

FINANCIALS, this group was higher during the today, but sold off with the rest of the market and closed near the lows with GS +.30, JPM +.86, BAC +.37, C +.86, PNC +1.45, AIG -.17, WFC +.72, and XLF +.19 (we bought the 6/28 calls @ $.50 and they closed @ $.64).

 

OIL, $72.20 -.15, after a new high at $72.90 we closed lower. We continue to hold support at ever higher levels. The issue of higher prices for gas to negate some of the tax cut for the lower income groups seems to be on no one’s mind but mine.  I know it’s getting boring to read the same thing about continuing to find support but the level is now closer to $71.  The stocks were lower with CVX -.89, APC-1.19, BP-.70, COP -.53, PSX 1.70, MPC -.36, MRO-.35, RIG -.20, OAS -.45, HES -1.45, and XLE -.92 (1.17%).

 

METALS, $1,292 +1.10 the gold is clearly trying to rebuild since its dramatic 10 day decline from $1,325.  We are consolidating here around $1,290 but there is still work to do. There is substantial resistance between $1,295 – 1,305 that will take a lot of work to defeat. Today’s slightly higher close may mean we will get a bounce.  Silver and copper were slightly higher and copper is trying to make some headway, and it put on a good showing to close $3.1320 + .0335 puts a dent in any bear case.

 

BITCOIN closed $8,185 -210 and had another unimpressive range and close. There is still plenty of supply all the way up from $9,000- 9,500. We’ll have to see which way it breaks but a close under 7940 would be troubling.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

After the close 5/21/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

All Indexes Higher with the Russell !!

 

FOR TRADING MAY 22nd

 

Today’s market started off strong with higher futures overnight on comments by both Larry Kudlow and Steven Mnuchin on the (non) trade war with China. The DJIA finished +298.20 (1.21%), NASDAQ +39.70 (.54%), S&P 500 +20.04 (.74%), and again, the Russell +10.81 (.66%), and even the DJ Transports +136.86 (1.22%).  We were propelled higher with some outstanding action from 28 of the 30 Dow stocks with BA +88 Dow points, HD +17, CAT+23, MMM +20, UNH+23 and UTX +20.  Market internals were positive with NYSE volume and A/D both 2.5:1 and NASDAQ  1.5:1 respectively.  While NASDAQ looks a bit less impressive, I would point out that the New Highs / New Lows numbers were 5.5:1 vs. 3.5:1 on NYSE.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, earnings from PSTG were a beat on both the top and bottom lines, guidance was nothing special and the stock fell from a new high of $24.31 to trade $21.87 -1.74 (7.4%).  GE reported a deal to spinoff their locomotive unit to WAB sent both stocks higher with GE +.29 (1.9%) and WAB +3.36 (3.53%).  Another deal, late in the day between ADBE and Magneto sent the shares of SHOP (Magneto is a major competitor) from near highs of $150.97 to trade in the extended hours at $136.50 and currently $140 -4.50 (3.3%).  SHOP has had a run from a low of $18.48 in early 2016 to these highs near $155.  GOOGL was featured on 60 Minutes last night and while the report was highly negative (in my opinion) the stock was higher by $15.26.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was to lower with CELG -3.52, BIIB -2.73, REGN -6.81, ISRG +4.59, ABBV +.25, MYL -.11, TEVA -.17, PRGO -.52, GILD-.42, and IBB -1.42 (1.32%).

 

 

RETAIL, was higher with M +.79, JWN +.88, KSS +1.73, DDS +2.50, SHLD +.04, JCP -.10 (3.83%), WMT +.78, HD +2.38, TJX +.05, TGT +1.24, DKS -.58, and XRT +.26. We have several of the brands earnings in the next couple of days.

 

 

FAANG, this group was higher with GOOGL +15.26, AMZN +11, AAPL +1.27, FB +1.81, NFLX +7.77, NVDA-1.70, TSLA +7.46 (upgraded), BA +13.70 (90 Dow points and 3.92%), BABA +2.65, BIDU-12.31 (4.87% and down 16% in last 3 trading days), IBM +1.41, BOX -.37 (we bought the 6/29 calls today at $1.40 and they closed 1.20) and XLK +.60.

  

FINANCIALS, this group was higher today, but totally without much enthusiasm with GS +.70, JPM +1.09, BAC +.27, C +.49, PNC +.67, AIG +.14, WFC +.81 and XLF +.20 (we bought the 6/28 calls @ $.50 and they closed @ $.54).

 

OIL, $72.35 +.98, after a new high at $72.68 we closed higher. We continue to hold support at ever higher levels. The issue of higher prices for gas to negate some of the tax cut for the lower income groups seems to be on no one’s mind but mine..  I know it’s getting boring to read the same thing about continuing to find support but the level is now closer to $71.  The stocks were higher with CVX +1.50, APC +1.14, BP +.37, COP +1.15, PSX +1.11, MPC -.68, MRO +.53, RIG +.12, OAS +.23, HES +.61, and XLE +.72 (.92%).

 

METALS, $1,290.90 -.40 the gold was lower this morning trading as low as $1,281.20 before trading higher to close near the highs. There is substantial resistance between $1,295 – 1,305 that will take a lot of work to defeat. Today’s lower low close near the highs may mean we will get a bounce.  Silver and copper were slightly higher and copper is trying to make some headway, and while it was up $ .0350 (1.1%), it still has a rough road ahead.

 

BITCOIN closed $8,395 +138 and had an unimpressive range and close. There is still plenty of supply all the way up from $9,000- 9,500. We’ll have to see which way it breaks but a close over $9,750 to make a move higher.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 5/17/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Russell Continues Higher !!

 

FOR TRADING MAY 18th

 

Today’s market started off soft and made an initial low of down 85 followed by a rally back to +85 and then spent the rest of the day in that range until it made a nominal new low -100 but really couldn’t get a head of steam in either direction.  The Russell was the star of the day moving higher again to close +8.71 (.54%) while the DJIA finished -54.95 (.22%), NASDAQ -15.82 (.21%) and S&P500 -2.34 (.9%).  Market internals were pretty even for volume but the A/D on the NYSE was 15:13 up while NASDAQ was 1.5:1 respectively.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, earnings from WMT was a beat both top and bottom and while we have had a rally for the last several days in this one and the rest of the group, it turned down and went negative to a low of -2.50 before settling for the day lower by 1.79 (2.08%) while CSCO continued lower after the disappointment of last night’s report to finish $43.46 -1.70 (3.76%).  JCP also opened $2.73 - .34 (11%) and fell as low as $2.65 before closing $2.69 -.38 (12.38%).  JACK missed last night and fell $7.58 (8.3%). CBS, a winner of a TRO against its biggest holder (National Amusements) had news that a judge had ruled against it and after a 3 day rally from $51 to $55.50 fell back to $49.95.  This one is in a perpetual street fight between CBS and Sumner Redstone and his daughter Shari about a proposed combination and the management of the combined entity.  Les Moonves, who actually started as an actor, made the move to the business side and joined CBS as president of CBS Entertainment and was responsible for many of the show that made CBS number 1 with shows like both the NCIS, the CSI franchises as well as Survivor and Bull after his years with Lorimar TV where he green-lighted Friends and ER. It closed -2.22 (4%). Also lower were PLCE with a miss and fell $10.97 (7.95%) and JNCE, who had was downgraded due to a disappointing results on a trial and was $$11.35 -6.22 (35%).  After the close we had JWN report poor same store sales and is trading -3.56 (7%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed with CELG -1.38, BIIB -.94, AMGN +.85, GILD +.05, ONCE -1.54, REGN +4.79, VRTX +.18, VRX -.05, ISRG -3.12, INCY -.38, ABBV +.28, TEVA +.24, MYL +.90, PRGO +.18, QURE 1.57 (4.85%), INNT -.60, ACAD -.37 and IBB +.06.

 

RETAIL, as mentioned above, WMT was -1.64, M continued higher +.67, JWN -3.56 (7%), KSS -.70, DDS +4.53 (6.3%), KORS +.92, SHLD -.11, JCP -.38 (12.4%),

HD -1.05, TJX +1.08, TGT +.60, TPR +.08, NKE -.40, LULU +.35, UAA -.14, DKS -.72, SIG +.13, and XRT +.05.

 

 

FAANG, this group continued yesterday’s declines with GOOGL -2.83, AMZN -5.52, AAPL -1.19, NFLX -2.97, TSLA -1.94, NVDA +1.70, FB +.56, BA +3.17, BABA -2.09, BIDU -4.39, IBM -.13, BOX +.03, and XLK -.36.

 

 

FINANCIALS, this group is stuck between higher rates (positive), and the speed with which it moved to 3.11% today, with GS -1.86, JPM -.38, BAC -.25, C -.39, PNC +.70, AIG + 1.08, WFC -.82, and XLF -.06.

 

OIL, $71.71 +15, after a new high at $72.37 we closed slightly higher. We continue to hold support at ever higher levels. The issue coming into focus is that at some point the higher prices for gas will negate some of the tax cut for the lower income groups.  I know it’s getting boring to read the same thing about continuing to find support but the level is now closer to $71.  The stocks were mixed with CVX -.10, APC +.82, COP +.81, BP +.48, PSX +3.71 (3.14%), MPC +3.98 (5.2%), MRO +.47, RIG +.11, OAS +.45 (3.6%), OXY +1.90, XOM -.14, HES +1.56, and XLE +1.17 (1.5%).

 

METALS, $1,290.10 -1.40 the gold could not stand the pressure of higher interest rates and strength in the US$.  We broke right through the $1,300 level and it looks like it may head back to test $1,280.  There is substantial resistance between $1,330-1,350 that will take a lot of work to defeat. Today’s lower low and test of $1,285 without a bounce shows how much concern there is for gold and the US$.  Silver and copper were slightly higher and copper is trying to hold $3.00-3.05, and closed $3.0830 +.0125.

 

BITCOIN closed $8,227 -43  and had a narrow inside day and fell back to close lower after failing to hold 8,500. There is still plenty of supply all the way up from $9,000- 9,800. We’ll have to see which way it breaks but a close over $9,750 to make a move higher.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 5/16/2018


 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

New Highs for the Russell

 

FOR TRADING MAY 17th

 

Today’s market was a slowly building uptrend all day without the kind of weakness you’d expect after 8 up days and a reversal. The Russell 2000 is the first index to close at new all-time highs at 1616.36 +16.02 (1%), DJIA +62.66 (.25%), NASDAQ +46.66 (.63%), S&P500 +11.02 (.41%) and DJ Transports +87.75 (.83%).  Market internals were solidly better with both the NYSE and NASDAQ volume and A/D 2:1 positive.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, earnings from Macys helped the entire retail sector after trading up over $4 premarket and gapping higher and moving to recovery highs since January 2017.  We are still well below the highs in 2015 near $75, and has received several upgrades today.  HEAR, a maker of sound cards and headsets reported earnings last week and their product is used for gaming with multiple players like “Fortnite” and “Player Unknown Battlegrounds” continued to rise with new highs over $20.  BOOT also beat and was solidly rewarded with new highs over $26 after coming from 2017 lows at $6.00.  On the downside, Evolus (EOLS) a recent new issue is the maker of an alternative to AGN’s BOTOX, but was crushed today on an unfavorable response from the FDA.  May 1, the stock was under $7 and peaked on Monday @ $17.50, and closed today $10.70 -3.95 (27%).  CSCO had a beat but issued unimpressive guidance and traded -1.92 (4%).  TTWO also had a miss both top and bottom and after being halted reopened lower to trade $106 -8.00 (7%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mostly higher with CELG -.62, BIIB +5.42, AMGN +2.78, GILD +.53, ONCE +.22, REGN +2.72, VRTX +.62, VRX +.50, ISRG +4.43, INCY -.21, ABBV +1.58, TEVA +.61, MYL +.48, PRGO +.20, QURE +.89, INNT +1.02, ACAD -.08 and IBB +.95 (.9%).

 

RETAIL, as mentioned above, M led the way today +3.18(10.6%), JWN +1.33, KSS +.75, DDS -1.10, KORS +.47, SHLD +.28 (8%), JCP +.17, WMT +1.46, HD -2.13, GPS +.19, ANF +1.28, LB +.88, TJX -.01, TGT +2.15, TPR -.90, NKE +1.84, LULU +2.70, UAA +1.56 (8.26%), DKS +.09, RL +.71, VFC + 1.12, SIG +.67, and XRT +.75 (1.62%).

 

 

FAANG, this group recovered only slightly from yesterday’s declines with GOOGL +2.95, AMZN +11.10, AAPL +1.68, NFLX +2.06, TSLA +2.52, NVDA +.20, FB -1.31, BA -1.51, BABA +1.23, BIDU +11.94 (4.4%), IBM +.80, BOX +.01, and XLK +.24.

 

 

FINANCIALS, this group is stuck between higher rates (positive), and the speed with which it moved to 3.10% in just 2 days (scary), with GS -.72, JPM +.20, BAC -.16, C -.73, PNC -.71, AIG +.29, WFC +.03, and XLF +.03.

 

OIL, $71.54 +.24, after an inside day we closed slightly higher in spite of the strength of the US$, unlike the gold.  We continue to hold support at ever higher levels. The issue coming into focus is that at some point the higher prices for gas will negate some of the tax cut for the lower income groups.  I know it’s getting boring to read the same thing about continuing to find support but the level is now $70.  The stocks were mixed with CVX -.14, APC +.63, COP -.04, BP -.08, PSX -.16, MPC -.66, MRO -.09, RIG +.27, OAS +.39 (3.2%), OXY -.01, XOM +.23, HES -.03, and XLE +.28.

 

METALS, the gold could not stand the pressure of higher interest rates and strength in the US$.  We broke right through the $1,300 level and it looks like it may head back to test $1,280.  There is substantial resistance between $1,330-1,350 that will take a lot of work to defeat.  Today’s narrow range and test of $1,285 without a bounce shows how much concern there is for gold and the US$.  Silver and copper followed the gold but the copper is trying to hold $3.00-3.05, and closed +.022 @ $3.0780.

 

BITCOIN closed $8,260-280 and tested the $8,000-8,300 area and fell back to close lower after failing to hold 8,500. There is still plenty of supply all the way up from $9,000- 9,800. We’ll have to see which way it breaks but a close over $9,750 to make a move higher.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 5/15/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Rates Up for the Right Reason ??

 

FOR TRADING MAY 16th

 

Today’s market was lower from the open with rates on the US 10-year note not only over 3%, but up to 3.09%.  The talking heads all claim, “Up for the right reason, or this time it’s different !”  The rate isn’t really the issue for me, it’s the velocity of the move.  Yesterday we were hovering around 2.95% and today we are solidly higher.  I don’t mean to beat a dead horse, but we have become so desensitized to these percentage gains and losses that we forget (or haven’t ever had the experience of) rising rates on an accelerating basis.  Make no mistake, 3.09 or even 3.29 are not high rates, but remember the Fed is almost always wrong on both projections and the ability to create a “soft landing.”  The markets weighed in with losses from the start and the DJIA was down as much as 248 before closing -193 (.78%), NASDAQ -59.68 (.81%), S&P500 -18.68 (.68), and the Russell an unusual unchanged.  Internals were negative with NYSE volume 5:3 and A/D 9:5 down while on NASDAQ was a little better at 1.5:1 and 1:1 respectively.  

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, earnings from HD were disappointing and the stock was lower by $3.10 (1.62%) and Lowes was lower in sympathy.  SWCH also missed and finished the day -2.31 (14.9%), RDVT, a recent spinoff reported its first report and was quickly bid up to close $9.94 +4.27 (75.3%), HEAR, a maker of sound cards and headsets reported earnings last week and their product is used for gaming with multiple players like “Fortnite” and “Player Unknown Battlegrounds” and has moved from $1.76 to close today $17.82 (adjusted for a 1:4 reverse split in April).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mostly lower with CELG -3.36, BIIB -6.28, AMGN -3.46, GILD -.10, REGN-9.09, VRTX -1.92, VRX +.84, ICPT -.47, INCY +.01, ABBV -1.64, TEVA +.84 (4.12%), MYL +.24, PRGO +.61, QURE -.47, INNT -.61, ACAD -.56 and IBB -1.10.

 

RETAIL, In spite of the decline in HD, retail was mostly higher with a good report and several upgrades.  M +.22, JWN+.54, KSS +2.10, DDS +1.00, KORS +1.26, SHLD -.15(4.1%), JCP +.10(3.5%), WMT +.16, GPS +.78 (upgraded by Telsey), LB +.07, TJX +.67, TGT +.40, TPR -.46, NKE +.96, LULU +.23, UAA +.46, DKS +.32, RL +.98, VFC +1.00, SIG +.09, and XRT +.14.

 

FAANG, for a popular group, this group was universally lower with GOOGL -22.10, AMZN -25.34, AAPL -2.04, NFLX -2.28, TSLA -9.07, NVDA -11.08 (4.45%), BABA -2.44, FB -2.42, BIDU -.26, BA -2.84, IBM -.69 BOX +.06 and XLK -.87.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed with GS -2.45, JPM -.98, BAC+.08, C +.02, PNC +.44, AIG +.31, WFC +.37 and XLF -.05.  As I mentioned earlier, the higher rates help this group, but the velocity puts the big names on edge.

 

OIL, $71.31 +.35, after trading to a nominal new high at $71.92 we held gains in spite of the strength of the US$, unlike the gold.  We continue to hold support at ever higher levels. The issue coming into focus is that at some point the higher prices for gas will negate some of the tax cut for the lower income groups.  I know it’s getting boring to read the same thing about continuing to find support but the level is now $70.  The stocks were mixed with CVX -.91, APC +.60, COP +.50, BP +.38, PSX -.48, MPC -.61, MRO -.14, RIG +.04, OAS +.14, OXY -.74, XOM -.28, HES +.33, and XLE -.01.

 

METALS, the gold could not stand the pressure of higher interest rates and strength in the US$.  We broke right through the $1,300 level and it looks like it may head back to test $1,280.  There is substantial resistance between $1,330-1,350 that will take a lot of work to defeat.  Today’s drop of $27.90 means there is a lot of work to be done before any recovery. Silver and copper followed the gold but the copper is trying to hold $3.00-3.05.

 

BITCOIN closed $8,540 - 235 and tested the $8300-8500 area and fell back to close lower after an inside day. There is still plenty of supply all the way up from $9,000- 9,800. We’ll have to see which way it breaks but a close over $9,750 to make a move higher.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

  

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After the close 5/14/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 15th

 

Today’s market was up at the open and spent the day higher although the DJIA was +163 at the highs but managed to close up only 68.24 (.27%), NASDAQ +8.43 (.11%), S&P500 +2.41 (.09%), the Russell -6.45 (.40%) and the Transports -50.41 (.04%).  The internals were just barely positive with NYSE volume 1:1 and A/D 14:15 negative while the NASDAQ was 3:2 up volume and 13:15 A/D negative.  The new highs / lows were still 3:1 on NYSE and 4:1 on NASDAQ.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, earnings have slowed but VIPS missed by $ .04, had inline revenues and guidance but the market still punished it down 2.83 (18.6%).  It is down from $28 over the past 3 years.  The gaming stocks were generally mixed to  higher on the news that the Supreme Court has given the states the rights to deal with sports book gaming.  The biggest gainers were the regional operators since the Las Vegas casinos already have sportsbooks.  SGMS +5.95 (11.15%), IGT +.89 (3.13%), BYD +1.07, (3.065), PENN +1.51 (4.685), and CZR +.65 (5.46%).  Another big winner is not public, as Tilman Fertitta, owner of the Houston Rockets controls the private Golden Nugget.  Clearly, owners of sports teams are also winners.  Agilent (A) also beat but had poor guidance and is trading $64 -5.35 (7.55%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed to higher with the rest of the market.  CELG +.87, BIIB +.43, AMGN +2.07, GILD +.88, ONCE +1.19, REGN +1.51, VRTX +1.49, VRX -.04, ABBV +1.71, TEVA +1.07, MYL -.15, PRGO closed on its high but still -2.58 (3.3%) on news that there is a patent challenge on a cream they make.  It traded as low as $71.37 –just over $6 early. INNT -1.38 (we got stopped out last week at $18.17 and are also short the 5/22.50 calls @ $1.65, now $7.10 out of the money.  IBB was +1.10 (1.03%).

 

 

RETAIL, has earnings tomorrow and the group was slightly higher with SHLD (still terminal) $3.65 +.23 (6.73%) on the news that they are considering selling Kenmore, the only product line that is still their own.  It looks like the business plan for this company to be profitable is to close all the stores and liquidate all the assets.  HD reports tomorrow and WMT on Thursday so retail will be under the microscope.

 

FAANG, was mixed with GOOGL +1.66, AMZN -2.34, AAPL -.58, NFLX +2.05, TSLA -9.46, NVDA +.52, FB -.46, BA +2.13, BABA +4.18, BIDU +.64, IBM +.16, BOX -.25, and XLK -.01.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed with GS +.99, JPM +.04, BAC +.20, C -.24, PNC -.62, AIG +.07, WFC +.36 and XLF unchanged.

 

OIL, $70.96 +.26, after trading as high as $71.26 oil refused to give up any ground and is flagging out with lower highs and lower lows.  The issue coming into focus is that at some point the higher prices for gas will negate some of the tax cut for the lower income groups.  I know it’s getting boring to read the same thing about continuing to find support but the level is now $70.  The stocks were higher with CVX +.55, APC +.89, COP +.15, BP +.43, PSX +.53, MPC + 1.01, MRO +.42, RIG +.33, OAS +.20, OXY -.08, XOM +.55, HES +.41 and XLE +.53.

 

METALS, the gold held below the $1,320 area again and closed $1,313.20 -2.5. The weaker the US$ helped this market but we are still holding above $1,310 or so. $1,325 is now resistance. Copper continues to fail around $3.14-$3.15.  Today’s close of $3.0930 -.0185 is near the $3.06 support.

 

BITCOIN closed $8,775 +135 and tested the $8300-8500 area and rallied back to close higher.  There is still plenty of supply all the way up from $9,000- 9,800. We’ll have to see which way it breaks but a close over $9,750 to make a move higher..

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

  

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Rates Up for the Right Reason ??

 

FOR TRADING MAY 16th

 

Today’s market was lower from the open with rates on the US 10-year note not only over 3%, but up to 3.09%.  The talking heads all claim, “Up for the right reason, or this time it’s different !”  The rate isn’t really the issue for me, it’s the velocity of the move.  Yesterday we were hovering around 2.95% and today we are solidly higher.  I don’t mean to beat a dead horse, but we have become so desensitized to these percentage gains and losses that we forget (or haven’t ever had the experience of) rising rates on an accelerating basis.  Make no mistake, 3.09 or even 3.29 are not high rates, but remember the Fed is almost always wrong on both projections and the ability to create a “soft landing.”  The markets weighed in with losses from the start and the DJIA was down as much as 248 before closing -193 (.78%), NASDAQ -59.68 (.81%), S&P500 -18.68 (.68), and the Russell an unusual unchanged.  Internals were negative with NYSE volume 5:3 and A/D 9:5 down while on NASDAQ was a little better at 1.5:1 and 1:1 respectively.  

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, earnings from HD were disappointing and the stock was lower by $3.10 (1.62%) and Lowes was lower in sympathy.  SWCH also missed and finished the day -2.31 (14.9%), RDVT, a recent spinoff reported its first report and was quickly bid up to close $9.94 +4.27 (75.3%), HEAR, a maker of sound cards and headsets reported earnings last week and their product is used for gaming with multiple players like “Fortnite” and “Player Unknown Battlegrounds” and has moved from $1.76 to close today $17.82 (adjusted for a 1:4 reverse split in April).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mostly lower with CELG -3.36, BIIB -6.28, AMGN -3.46, GILD -.10, REGN-9.09, VRTX -1.92, VRX +.84, ICPT -.47, INCY +.01, ABBV -1.64, TEVA +.84 (4.12%), MYL +.24, PRGO +.61, QURE -.47, INNT -.61, ACAD -.56 and IBB -1.10.

 

RETAIL, In spite of the decline in HD, retail was mostly higher with a good report and several upgrades.  M +.22, JWN+.54, KSS +2.10, DDS +1.00, KORS +1.26, SHLD -.15(4.1%), JCP +.10(3.5%), WMT +.16, GPS +.78 (upgraded by Telsey), LB +.07, TJX +.67, TGT +.40, TPR -.46, NKE +.96, LULU +.23, UAA +.46, DKS +.32, RL +.98, VFC +1.00, SIG +.09, and XRT +.14.

 

FAANG, for a popular group, this group was universally lower with GOOGL -22.10, AMZN -25.34, AAPL -2.04, NFLX -2.28, TSLA -9.07, NVDA -11.08 (4.45%), BABA -2.44, FB -2.42, BIDU -.26, BA -2.84, IBM -.69 BOX +.06 and XLK -.87.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed with GS -2.45, JPM -.98, BAC+.08, C +.02, PNC +.44, AIG +.31, WFC +.37 and XLF -.05.  As I mentioned earlier, the higher rates help this group, but the velocity puts the big names on edge.

 

OIL, $71.31 +.35, after trading to a nominal new high at $71.92 we held gains in spite of the strength of the US$, unlike the gold.  We continue to hold support at ever higher levels. The issue coming into focus is that at some point the higher prices for gas will negate some of the tax cut for the lower income groups.  I know it’s getting boring to read the same thing about continuing to find support but the level is now $70.  The stocks were mixed with CVX -.91, APC +.60, COP +.50, BP +.38, PSX -.48, MPC -.61, MRO -.14, RIG +.04, OAS +.14, OXY -.74, XOM -.28, HES +.33, and XLE -.01.

 

METALS, the gold could not stand the pressure of higher interest rates and strength in the US$.  We broke right through the $1,300 level and it looks like it may head back to test $1,280.  There is substantial resistance between $1,330-1,350 that will take a lot of work to defeat.  Today’s drop of $27.90 means there is a lot of work to be done before any recovery. Silver and copper followed the gold but the copper is trying to hold $3.00-3.05.

 

BITCOIN closed $8,540 - 235 and tested the $8300-8500 area and fell back to close lower after an inside day. There is still plenty of supply all the way up from $9,000- 9,800. We’ll have to see which way it breaks but a close over $9,750 to make a move higher.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 5/10/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 11th

 

Today’s market was up at the open and spent the day higher and the DJIA closed +196.99 (.80%), NASDAQ         +65.07 (.89%), S&P 500 +25.28 (.94%), and the Russell +7.66 (.48%).  The internals were strong without getting excessive as NYSE volume was 3:1 and 2.5:1 A/D and NASDAQ 2:1 and 9:5 respectively.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, ARMO received an offer from LLY and gapped up and closed 49.80 +19.98 (67%).  NUAN missed and traded down to $12.18 before closing on the high of the day $13.50 -1.78 (11.65%).  HEAR beat and gained $4.48 (74.5%), and NVDA reported after the close and tried the upside by $4, but sold off to trade down $8.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed with CELG -.42, BIIB -.03, AMGN +1.13, GILD -.49, REGN +5.30, VRTX +1.94, VRX -.28, ICPT -.77, ABBV 1.67, TEVA -.21, MYL +1.18, PRGO +2.09, ACAD .18 and IBB -.34.

 

 

RETAIL, was lower with M -.79, JWN -.77, KSS -.66, DDS +.08, SHLD -.05, WMT +.12, HD +.64, TJX -.62, TGT +.31, DKS +.50, and XRT -.05.

 

FAANG, was mixed with GOOGL +15.05, AMZN +.69, AAPL +2.49, NFLX -.80, TSLA -3.30, NVDA -3.23, FB +2.49, BA +.96, BABA +.32, BIDU +6.71, IBM +1.19, BOX +1.09, and XLK +.90.

 

FINANCIALS, with the exception of AIG, all of the financials follow were higher with GS +2.12, JPM +.71, BAC +.08, C +.62, PNC +.56, AIG -.07, WFC +.84, and XLF +.23.

 

OIL, $71.36 + .22, after trading as high as $71.89 oil refused to give up any ground and is trading tonight at $71.36 unchanged. I know it’s getting boring to read the same thing about continuing to find support but the level is now $70.  The stocks were higher with CVX +.10, APC +.95, MPC -.12, MRO -.12, RIG +.39, OASN +.24, OXY +1.46, XOM +1.92, HES +.95 and XLE +.57.

 

METALS, the gold held the $1,305 area again and closed $1,322.30. The weaker the US$ helped this market but we are still holding. $13.20-1332 is now resistance. Copper held and made some headway to close $3.11 +.0525.

 

BITCOIN closed $9,130 -202 and has run right back to resistance I noted last night approaching $10,000. We held $9,000 and bounced so we continue in the range of $8,700 –$9700.  It is trading just under $9000 tonight.  We’ll have to see which way it breaks.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 5/9/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Strong Oils and Financials

 

FOR TRADING MAY 10th

 

Today’s market was up to a slow start but as the morning wore on market internals improved until we tried the downside and could just not get any follow-thru.  By noon we were headed higher and spent 2 hours working our way to +200 or so and finished +182 (.75%) with NASDAQ +73.01 (1%), S&P 500 +25.87 (.97%), The Russell +9.66 (.61%) and the Transports +62.67(.60%).  Internals finished with 2:1 volume and 9:5 A/D at both NYSE and NASDAQ.  I also want to mention that new high/new lows were solidly 2:1 positive.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, there were earning this morning and they really punished the losers.  MNST missed and was downgraded and finished the day -3.97 (7.48%), EXTR also missed and was traded down to $8.25 but finished -3.04 (25.87%), TRIP beat and was trading $46.40 premarket +7.62 and closed +8.84 (23%) while BKNG a competitor, reported after the close and missed and was lower by 153.89 (7%).    WMT was lower by $4.25 to $81.45 after announcing a deal with Flipkart but recovered to close -2.68 (3.13%) much nearer the high. TWLO also reported and was +8.06 (18.17%) and MIDD also missed and after trading as low as $100, closed midrange at 108.56 -23.07.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed to slightly higher with CELG -.50, BIIB +4.30, AMGN +1.15, GILD +.47, VRTX +.80, VRX +.37, TEVA +.26, MYL +1.35, PRGO -1.04, INNT -1.08 and IBB +1.30 (1.27%).

 

RETAIL, was higher with the exception of WMT, and although I have labeled SHLD “terminal” after signing a deal with AMZN for tire and battery installations it was +.41 (14.86%).  The rest of the group was M+.22, JWN +.87, KSS +.38, DDS +.71, JCP +.11, HD +1.75, TJX +1.31, TGT +.58, DKS ++.66

 

FAANG, was higher with the exception of BABA -.89 and BIDU -2.09 with GOOGL +33.51, AMZN +14.61, AAPL +1.43, NFLX +3.46, TSLA +4.01, NVDA +5.85, BA +6.33, IBM +1.09 and my new favorite, BOX +.71 (2.68%). We rolled forward yesterday in the 6/27 calls $1.10 and had to sell the first half @ $2.20 on the 100% Up rule.  The XLK was +.84.

 

FINANCIALS,  interest rates “edging” higher worked for this group and only AIG was lower by .26 while GS +4.75, JPM+2.41, BAC +.85, C +.90, PNC +2.76, WFC +.61 and XLF +.41.

 

OIL, $71.14 +2.08, after trading as high as $71.36 oil refused to give up any ground and is trading tonight at $71.67 + .53. I know it’s getting boring to read the same thing about continuing to find support but the level is now $70.  The stocks were higher with OXY +4.49 (5.74%), MRO +.91 (4.45%) and RIG +.79 (6.37%) leading the way.  The rest were all higher and XLE was +1.52 (2.04%).

 

METALS, the gold held the $1,305 area again and closed $1,313.  We now need to see what the action here near $1,300-$1,305.  The strength in the US$ hurt this market but we are still holding. Copper held with a short range with no real change .It bounced off $3.00 but I need to see if we can hold $2.97-3.05 and needs some rebuilding.

 

BITCOIN closed $9,332 +100 and has run right back to resistance I noted last night approaching $10,000. We held $9,000 and bounced so we continue in the range of $8,700 –$9700.  We’ll have to see which way it breaks.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 5/8/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

GREAT RECOVERY TO NEW YTD HIGHS!!

 

FOR TRADING MAY 9th

Today’s market was a seesaw affair from -60 to + 30 to -158 to close the day at +2.89.  The president did pretty much what he promised the voters and the market took that in stride and moved on.  NASDAQ was +1.69. S&P 500 -.71 and the only two markets that require a percentage change were the DJ Transports +83.46 (.81%) and the Russell +7.44 (.47%).  Market internals were 1:1 for both volume and A/D on the NYSE and 10:9 and 5:4 on NASDAQ.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, there were earning this afternoon in DIS and while a beat, the stock first tried the upside to $104 before falling back to $100 before settling out @ $100.60 -1.19.  EA was all t the positive side having closed 123.89 and ending the extended session @ $126.30.  BLNK, up just 172% yesterday continued today to close $6.24 +2.20 (54.46%).  This one is clearly a play on America’s acceptance and even desire for electric cars and BLNK makes charging stations.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was lower with the exception of VRX.  They reported and beat on revenues, organic growth and issued strong guidance.  The stock was +1.64 (9.03%). We owned the VRX 5/18 calls @ an average of $ .82 and sold into the rally and took $2.35 for a gain of 186%.  The only other gainer in my list was TEVA +.28 and the IBB was - .52 (.50%).

 

 

RETAIL, was mixed with M-.27, JWN-.12, KSS +.92, DDS -1.89, SHLD -.24 (8% and still terminal), JCP -.03, WMT +.18. HD +1.54, TJX +.69, TGT +.06, DKS -.14, and the XRT -.03

 

FAANG, with the exception of BIDU +9.60, FAANG  was mixed and little changed with GOOGL -.75, AMZN -8.14, AAPL +.84, NFLX +.63, TSLA -.97, NVDA +2.02, FB +.93, BA -2.33, BABA +.70, BIDU +9.60, IBM -.22, and my new favorite, BOX +1.10 (4.3%). We had the second half of our BOX 5/23 calls and sold them @ $2.90 and replaced them with the 6/ 27 calls @ $1.10.  We also have some 6/25s at 1.10 that were sold today @ $2.55 and XLK +.15.

 

FINANCIALS, were slightly higher with GS -.20, JPM +1.51, BAC +.28, C +2.53, PNC +1.63, AIG -.19, WFC +.53 and XLF +.19.

OIL, $69.06- 1.67, after trading as high as $70.40 we sold off to $67.63 in a roller coaster day while awaiting the decision on Iran.  We recovered to close mid-range and tonight we are trading $70.53 +1.52. I know it’s getting boring to read the same thing about continuing to find support between $67.50 -$68.00, but at least we are thru the $69.50 supply. The stocks were higher with MRO +.73, OAS +.20, OXY +3.07 and XLE +.58.  Tomorrow should start with a strong open.

 

METALS, the gold held the $1,305 area and closed $1,313.70.  We now need to see what the action here near $1,300-$1,305.  The strength in the US$ hurt this market but we are still holding. Copper faltered and fell as low as $3.0140 before recovering a bit.. It bounced off $3.00 but I need to see if we can hold $2.97-3.05 and needs some rebuilding.

 

BITCOIN closed $9,232 -213 and has run right back to resistance I noted last night approaching $10,000. We are in another range of $8,700 –$9700.  We’ll have to see which way it breaks.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 5/7/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 8th

Today’s market was strong at the open moving higher by about215 and then traded between +120 and 185 for most of the day, and we only started to edge lower after POTUS tweeted that we are going to get a decision on the Iran agreement tomorrow at 2:00PM.  We actually got back down around unchanged before rallying again to close +$94.81 (.39%), S&P 500 +9.21 (.35%), NASDAQ +55.59 (.77%0 and the Russell +13.34 (.85%).  The transports were in a very tight range and closed +1.92 (.02%).  Market internals were good with NYSE 1.5:1 volume and 9:5 A/D while NASDAQ was slightly better with 2.5:1 volume and also 9:5 A/D.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, TSEM had earnings before the open and clearly the street was not impressed since pre-market the stock was down almost $5 @ 22.60 before recovering to close $25 -2.54 (9.2%).  ATHN received a bid from a major shareholder, Elliot Capital to buy the company for $160 in cash and that one ran right to $158.24 before coming back to earth and closing $146.75 +20.67 (16.9%).  TSN also missed and opened lower by $1.54 but also recovered to close $67.20 +.23.  A low-priced gainer, BLNK, a vehicle recharging equipment deal announced an agreement with Whole Foods (AMZN) to install their equipment at all new Whole Foods locations.  After a close Friday @ $1.47, it opened at $1.95 and ran as high as $4.70 before closing $4.04 + 2.56 (173%).  One of the old “nifty fifty from the 60’s and 70’s, IFF had good earnings but also announced an acquisition using stock and cash of $7.1 billion, and no one was particularly pleased as Moody’s and S&P both downgraded IFF’s debt.  The stock finished $126.89 -15.26 (10.7%).  After the close HTZ reported a miss and was trading 20.12 -2.06 (9.7%).

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed to higher with CELG -2.32, BIIB +.06, AMGN +.08, ONCE +2.56, VRTX +.51, ISRG +4.98, ICPT +.82, ABBV -.54, TEVA +.79 MYL +.13, PRGO +.97 INNT -.03, VRX +.28 (we own the 5/18 calls at $.82 and they closed $1.15) and IBB +.65.

 

 

RETAIL, with the exception of the brands, NKE, LULU, and UAA, retail was weak across the board with M-1.24, JWN -.97, KSS -2.56 (4%), SHLD -.28 (8.5% and yes still terminal), JCP -.08, WMT -1.97, TJX -.93, TGT 1.72, TPR -.65, SIG -.51, and XRT -.21.

 

FAANG, with the exception of IBM, FAANG was higher across the board with GOOGL +8.46, AMZN +18.84, AAPL +1.25 (new high 187.67), NFLX +6.17, TSLA +8.41, NVDA +9.74, FB +1.39, BA +6, BABA +6.46, BIDU +2.27, IBM -.69, BOX +1.12 (4.6%) we bought the 5/23 calls @ $ .95 and closed out half on our 100% Up Rule @ $1.90 and the balance closed $2.50, and XLK +.47.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS +2.56, JPM +.94, BAC +.42, C +2.18, PNC +.30, AIG +.44, WFC +.54 and XLF +.25.

 

OIL, $70.02 + .30, after trading as high as $70.84 we sold off a bit but still held on to $70. I know it’s getting boring to read the same thing about continuing to find support between $66.50-$67.00, but at least we are thru the $69.50 supply. The stocks were mixed with CVX -.59, APC -.58, COP .09, BP +.35, PSX -.20, MPC -.44, MRO +.05, RIG +.17, OAS +.12, OXY -.43, XOM +.84 (after a 2.50 move this morning based on the Barron’s front page story), HES +.51, and XLE +.16.

 

METALS, the gold held the $1,310 area and closed $1,314.5 -.20. We now need to see what the action here near $1,300-$1,305.  The weakness in the US$ helped this market today. Copper faltered and fell .0125. It bounced off $3.00 but I need to see if we can hold $2.97-3.05 and needs some rebuilding.

 

BITCOIN closed $9,445 -280 and has run right back to resistance I noted last night approaching $10,000. We are in another range of $8,700 –$9700.  We’ll have to see which way it breaks.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 5/3/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Clueless !!!

 

FOR TRADING MAY 4rd

 

Today’s action was dramatic, to say the least.  At 11:00AM NYSE volume was 4:1 negative and we were down 393, but by the end of the day we closed +5.17 and only 5:3 negative volume and 3:4 A/D.  NASDAQ wasn’t as bad at 2:1 negative and finished 5:6 with A/D 5:9.  NASDAQ was -12.75 (.18%), S&P 500 -5.94 (.23%), the Russell -8.48 (.55%) and the Transports, after being -200 closed -31.27 (.30%).  The A.A.I.I. Sentiment numbers show how clueless this market actually is with both the Bears and Bulls are both under their long term averages and Neutral are well over (35%) its average.  I have written about this often in the last several months and it is my opinion that Neutral equals money on the sidelines, unable to make an investment decision, but willing to play momentum in whatever direction takes hold.  Hence, increased volatility.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, TSLA was the feature again with plenty of commentary about Elon Musk’s flippant attitude on the conference call that turned the stock from up at $311 to down at 275 and closing today at 283 -18.15.  Other unfortunate earnings reports sent several stock lower, NXPI -92.36 (10.09%), TEVA beat and trader up to $19.50 but fell to close 17.78 -.82 (4.4%), it wasn’t just earnings, and ESPR was downgraded and has fallen from $70 on Tuesday to close 36.93 today -47% on the week. CAH missed and is feeling pricing pressure and fell 13.85 (21.42%). GPRO was up to $5.49, but finished 4.89 -.07.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was weak again with most down from 1 – 3%, with the biggest loser QURE -2.10 (6.9%) INNT -.89 (4.5%), VRX -.23 (we own the 5/18 calls at $.82 and they closed .95) and IBB -1.50 (1.46%).

 

 

RETAIL, was mixed to lower with M +.11, JWN -.92, KSS +.16, DDS -1.05, WMT +.15, HD -2.27 (1.2%), TJX +.03, TGT -.30, TPR -.28, UAA -.98 (5.34%), DKS -1.11(3.41%) and XRT -.53 (1.17%).

 

FAANG, was mixed with GOOGL -1.55, AMZN +2.81, AAPL +.43, NFLX -2.36, TSLA -18.15, NVDA +6.99, FB -1.72, BA +6.50, BABA -.10, BIDU +2.60, IBM +.01, and BOX +.79 (3.4%) we bought the 5/23 calls @ $ .95 and closed $1.70, and XLK +15.

 

FINANCIALS, were lower with GS-.73, JPM -.58, BAC -.36, C -.09, PNC +1.41, AIG-2.91 after a low of -5.00, WFC -.42, and XLF -.23.

 

OIL, $68.43 +.50, after trading lower and closing near the highs yesterday we made a higher high and a higher low and we closed at the highs of the day again. I know it’s getting boring to read the same thing about continuing to find support between $66.50-$67 and some supply near $69.50. The stocks were mixed to higher with CVX ++.56, APC -1.71, COP +.54, BP+.03, PSX +1.07, MPC +1.84 (2.43%), MRO +1.17 (6.4%), RIG -.27, OAS -.13, OXY +.46, XOM -.11, HES -1.38, and XLE -.17.

 

METALS, the gold held the $1,300 area and closed $1,312.70 +7.10. We now need to see what the action here near $1,300.  The weakness in the US$ helped this market. Today. Copper rallied to $3.12 but closed $3.0805 +.014. It bounced off $3.00 but I need to see if we can hold $2.97-3.00 and needs some rebuilding.

 

BITCOIN closed $9,700 +560 and has run right back to resistance I noted last night approaching $10,000. We are in another range of $8,700 –$9700.  We’ll have to see which way it breaks.  It is trading -$40 tonight..

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 5/2/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Even Apple Couldn’t Pull Us Higher

 

FOR TRADING MAY 3rd

 

Today’s action was very disappointing with AAPL unable to pull the rest of the market, or even the FAANG stocks and the non-event of the FED today after their meeting did nothing but leave markets searching for something to hang on to, and finding nothing.  The question of what is good news, and are positive employment numbers good or bad? Nothing like indecision and doubt to push the market lower.  The only index that was positive was the Russell +4.71(.30%) with DJIA -174.07 (.72%), NASDAQ -29.80 (.42%), S&P 500 -19.13 (.72%).  Market internals were positive all day until 3:00 when the NYSE volume went from even to 1.5:1 negative while A/D managed to stay even at 1:1, NASDAQ was stronger all day and finished 1.2:1 negative volume but 5:3 positive A/D.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, TSLA was the star of the earnings parade with a lower loss and good delivery numbers on deliveries of the Model 3. It traded up to $311 but after the conference call they took it all back and then some to $287 -14 (4.6%)  On the losing side was AIG -2.33 (4.25%), SQ miss and -2.89(5.57%), ESRX beat but poor guidance -1.15(1.5%), and SPOT on its first earnings since public missed and closing on a new all- time high at $170 is now -14 (7.67%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed but weak numbers by GILD sent that one -5.68(7.83%), CELG -1.17, BIIB -.46, AMGN +.15, REGN -4.19, VRTX -3.01, ABBV -1.47, TEVA +.09, INNT +2.22 (12.7%), VRX -.36  (we own the 5/18 calls at $.82 and they closed 1.10) and IBB -1.60.

 RETAIL, bounced back a bit to close mostly higher with M +.60, JWN +.03, KSS +1.04.03, KSS +1.04, DDS +1.87, SHLD -.05, JCP +.07, WMT -1.07, HD +1.28, TJX -.04, TGT +.38, TPR -1.09, DKS -.53 and  XRT +.18. UAA had good numbers but disclosed high levels of inventory but managed a gain to $18.36 +.33.

 

FAANG, was soft with GOOGL-14.44, AMZN -14.24, AAPL +7.49, NFLX -.68, TSLA -14.58, NVDA -1.14, FB +2.15, BA -4.54, BABA +3.31,BIDU -2.55, IBM -2.61 (we bought the 5/23 calls @ $ .95 and closed $1.12 ), IBM -2.61 and XLK-.07.

 

FINANCIALS, were lower with GS-2.63, JPM -.94, BAC -.31, C -.26, PNC -1.73, AIG (mentioned above) -4.51 (8%), WFC -.33, and XLF -.33.

 

OIL, $67.93 +.68, after trading lower at $66.92 we rallied a little to close near the highs. We continue to find support between $66.50-$67 and some supply near $69.50. The stocks were mixed to higher with CVX +.61, APC -.95, COP -.26, BP -.10, PSX +2.55, MPC +2.94, MRO +.13 RIG unchanged, OAS +.27, OXY +.25, XOM -.19, HES -.04, and XLE +.30

 

METALS, the gold held the $1,300 area but closed $1,305.60 -1.20. We now need to see what the action here near $1,300.  The strength in the US$ continues to hurt this market.  Copper closed $3.0475 + .0325. It bounced off $3.00 but I need to see if we can hold $2.97-3.00 and needs some rebuilding.

 

BITCOIN closed $9,140 +160 and has run right back to resistance I noted last night approaching $10,000. We are in another range of $8,700 –$9700.  We’ll have to see which way it breaks.  It is trading +$150.

 

 Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 5/1/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Apple Beats, Others not so much

 

FOR TRADING MAY 2nd

 

Today’s action was bipolar. The DJIA was much lower than either the S&P 500 or NASDAQ, but we started seeing some divergences very early on. After disappointing ISM data we headed lower. While the DJIA made a low down about 350 (1.4%), the S&P 500 was only -2.40(.9%) at its bottom.  We rallied pretty well into the close with DJIA -64.10(.27%), S&P500 +6.75 (.25%), NASDAQ +64.43 (.91%) the Russell +8.46 (.55%), and the DJ Transports -35.18(.34%). Market internals were even on NYSE at 1:1 volume and 15:13 A/D while NASDAQ was stronger at 1.5:1 and 2.5:1 up respectively.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, as the headline says, AAPL beat and is higher by an additional 6 after being up 3.84 (2.32%) after trading as low as $160 Friday afternoon.  TPR (formerly Coach) wasn’t so fortunate and opened – 7 and finished the day -6.31 (11.74%).  STX missed and after trading as low as $49.08 it closed on the high at $54.21 -3.68 (6.36%).  COMM beat but had disappointing guidance and closed -10.63 (27.81%).  FB had a developer’s conference today and the biggest news on the Mark Zuckerberg “apology tour” was that they were going into the dating business.  This sent MTCH down 10.41 (22%) and IAC -28.81 (17.77%).  Definitely not a Love Connection.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed but weak numbers by GILD sent that on -3.74 (5.2%), and AMGN followed -5.85.  Others were mixed with CELG +.25, BIIB +1.01, REGN -2.46, VRTX -.66, ABBV +5.45 and conducting a Dutch auction, TEVA +.71, PRGO -.07, and VRX +.29 (we own the 5/18 calls at $.82 and they closed 1.26).

 

RETAIL, as mentioned above, TPR cast a shadow over the retail space with M-.33, JWN -.39, KSS-.12, DDS -1.31, KORS -2.01, SHLD +.01, JCP +.02, WMT -.89, HD-.49, TJX -1.28, TGT-1.50, DKS -.04 and XRT -.12.

 

FAANG, was strong with GOOGL +21.44, AMZN +21.87, AAPL +9.49, NFLX +1.24, TSLA +6.99, NVDA +3.35, FB +2.38, BA -3.58, BABA+1.86, IBM +.04, BOX +.60 (we bought the 5/23 calls @ $ .95 today), and XLK+.82.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed with uncertainty over UD$ gains and higher interest rates.  GS -.82, JPM +.22, BAC +.02, C +.28, PNC -1.29, AIG _.24, AIG -.24, WFC+.74 and XLF +.02.

 

OIL, $67.25 -1.32, after trading lower at $66.85 we rallied a little to close over $67. We continue to find support between $66.50-$67 and some supply near $69.50. The stocks were mixed to higher with CVX -.45, APC -1.42, COP+.32, BP +.09, PSX +.52, MPC -1.45, MRO unchanged, RIG -.33, OAS -.23, OXY -.85, HES +.66, and XLE -.45.

 

METALS, the gold headed lower thru the support near $1,310.70 moving lower to close 1,306.80 -13.40.  We now need to see what the action here near $1,300.  Copper had another down day and closed $3.0150. It bounced off $3.00 but I need to see if we can hold $2.97-3.00.

 

BITCOIN closed $8,975 -385, and has run right back to resistance I noted last night approaching $10,000. We are in another range of $8,700 –$9700.  We’ll have to see which way it breaks.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

A New “Takeunder” and Even MCD Didn’t Help

 

FOR TRADING MAY 1st

 

Today’s action was driven by the earnings from MCD which traded up $6.39 at the open and continued higher to close $167.44 +9.14 (5.77%).  AAPL was also higher trading higher by $5 before closing +2.94 (1.81%), but has an earnings report of its own tomorrow.  The open and ensuing rally took the DJIA +187 before everyone noticed only 3 or 4 stocks were generating that gain and we started to falter. First in the NASDAQ and then the S&P.  Around midday we broke the mornings low and continued a slow but steady decline to close at the lows of the day with DJIA -148.04 (.61%), NASDAQ -53.53 (.75%), S&P500 -21.86 (.83%) the Russell -14.35 (.92%), and the Transports -125.83 (1.19%).  Market internals were positive until about noon when the NYSE volume went negative finishing 7:3 negative and A/D 9:5 and NASDAQ was barely positive and the decline finished the day at 3:1 and 2:1 negative respectfully.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, the “take-under” of the day was the long awaited deal between TMUS and S.  This was a disappointment to many, and although I don’t think it goes into the same category as Kmart / Sears (from whom Sprint got its symbol) the markets certainly didn’t like it. TMUS closed -4.01 (6.22%) and S -.89 (13.69%).  Not a great performance.  ARNC was -4.63 (20.63%) based on the Q1 numbers and the CEO giving us the equivalent of the sports metaphor (a rebuilding year). CGNX beat both top and bottom lines but gave downside guidance for Q2 and is trading 38.04 -7.85 (16.9%).

AKAM beat and is +2.74 (3.83%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was lower with CELG -4.08 (FDA info due later this week), BIIB -3.20, AMGN-2.98, GILD -1.63, REGN-9.37 (3%) VRX -.01 (we own the 5/18 calls at $.82 and they closed 1.13), ABBV -2.18, TEVA +.17, INNT +.52, PRGO -1.26, and IBB -1.96 (1.86%).

 

 

RETAIL, with the exception of WMT, who sold its U.K. sub for $10 Billion retail was lower with M-1.17, JWN-1.04, KSS -.21, DDS -3.49(4.47%), SHLD-.17 (5.38%),  JCP -.22 (7%), WMT +1.17, HD -1.66, TJX -1.65, TGT -.25, TPR -.87 DKS -1.18 and XRT-.52 (1.14%).

 

 

FAANG, was soft all day with GOOGL-11.05, AMZN -5.12, AAPL +3.46, NFLX +.44, TSLA -.62, NVDA -1.81, FB -1.89, BA -7.13, BABA +1.08, IBM -1.57, BOX +.20 and XLK -.43.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed to higher early but gave up its gains by late afternoon with GS -1.50, JPM -.60, BAC -.23, C -.79, WFC -.31, PNC 1.73, and XLF -.29. We did buy XLF 5/18 calls at $ .46 but they were stopped out on the 50% down rule today @ $ .23.

 

OIL, $68.59 +.29, after trading lower at $67.17 we rallied again to close up on the day.  We continue to find support between $66.50-$67 and some supply near $69.50. The stocks were mixed to higher with CVX -1.51, APC +.26, COP +.55, BP +.48, PSX -.03, MPC was down 6.68 (8%) after its deal for ANDV in stock and cash was announced. MRO +.34, RIG -.42, OAS +.20, OXY +.22, XOM +.34, HES +.36 and XLE -.02.

 

METALS, the gold headed lower thru the support near $1,310.70 before it rebounding a bit, but tonight it is $1,316 -2.90.We bought the GLD 5/128 calls at an average price of $ .72 and got stopped out at the open @ $.26.  We now need to see what the action here near $1,300.  Copper had another short range day and closed $3.0525.  It will take a close over $3.20 for me to get in on the long side.

 

BITCOIN closed $9,360 +220, and has run right back to resistance I noted last night approaching $10,000. We are in another range of $8,700 –$9700.  We’ll have to see which way it breaks.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

A New “Takeunder” and Even MCD Didn’t Help

 

FOR TRADING MAY 1st

 

Today’s action was driven by the earnings from MCD which traded up $6.39 at the open and continued higher to close $167.44 +9.14 (5.77%).  AAPL was also higher trading higher by $5 before closing +2.94 (1.81%), but has an earnings report of its own tomorrow.  The open and ensuing rally took the DJIA +187 before everyone noticed only 3 or 4 stocks were generating that gain and we started to falter. First in the NASDAQ and then the S&P.  Around midday we broke the mornings low and continued a slow but steady decline to close at the lows of the day with DJIA -148.04 (.61%), NASDAQ -53.53 (.75%), S&P500 -21.86 (.83%) the Russell -14.35 (.92%), and the Transports -125.83 (1.19%).  Market internals were positive until about noon when the NYSE volume went negative finishing 7:3 negative and A/D 9:5 and NASDAQ was barely positive and the decline finished the day at 3:1 and 2:1 negative respectfully.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, the “take-under” of the day was the long awaited deal between TMUS and S.  This was a disappointment to many, and although I don’t think it goes into the same category as Kmart / Sears (from whom Sprint got its symbol) the markets certainly didn’t like it. TMUS closed -4.01 (6.22%) and S -.89 (13.69%).  Not a great performance.  ARNC was -4.63 (20.63%) based on the Q1 numbers and the CEO giving us the equivalent of the sports metaphor (a rebuilding year). CGNX beat both top and bottom lines but gave downside guidance for Q2 and is trading 38.04 -7.85 (16.9%).

AKAM beat and is +2.74 (3.83%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was lower with CELG -4.08 (FDA info due later this week), BIIB -3.20, AMGN-2.98, GILD -1.63, REGN-9.37 (3%) VRX -.01 (we own the 5/18 calls at $.82 and they closed 1.13), ABBV -2.18, TEVA +.17, INNT +.52, PRGO -1.26, and IBB -1.96 (1.86%).

 

 

RETAIL, with the exception of WMT, who sold its U.K. sub for $10 Billion retail was lower with M-1.17, JWN-1.04, KSS -.21, DDS -3.49(4.47%), SHLD-.17 (5.38%),  JCP -.22 (7%), WMT +1.17, HD -1.66, TJX -1.65, TGT -.25, TPR -.87 DKS -1.18 and XRT-.52 (1.14%).

 

 

FAANG, was soft all day with GOOGL-11.05, AMZN -5.12, AAPL +3.46, NFLX +.44, TSLA -.62, NVDA -1.81, FB -1.89, BA -7.13, BABA +1.08, IBM -1.57, BOX +.20 and XLK -.43.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed to higher early but gave up its gains by late afternoon with GS -1.50, JPM -.60, BAC -.23, C -.79, WFC -.31, PNC 1.73, and XLF -.29. We did buy XLF 5/18 calls at $ .46 but they were stopped out on the 50% down rule today @ $ .23.

 

OIL, $68.59 +.29, after trading lower at $67.17 we rallied again to close up on the day.  We continue to find support between $66.50-$67 and some supply near $69.50. The stocks were mixed to higher with CVX -1.51, APC +.26, COP +.55, BP +.48, PSX -.03, MPC was down 6.68 (8%) after its deal for ANDV in stock and cash was announced. MRO +.34, RIG -.42, OAS +.20, OXY +.22, XOM +.34, HES +.36 and XLE -.02.

 

METALS, the gold headed lower thru the support near $1,310.70 before it rebounding a bit, but tonight it is $1,316 -2.90.We bought the GLD 5/128 calls at an average price of $ .72 and got stopped out at the open @ $.26.  We now need to see what the action here near $1,300.  Copper had another short range day and closed $3.0525.  It will take a close over $3.20 for me to get in on the long side.

 

BITCOIN closed $9,360 +220, and has run right back to resistance I noted last night approaching $10,000. We are in another range of $8,700 –$9700.  We’ll have to see which way it breaks.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 4/26/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Is Risk On Back ??

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 27th


Today’s action was somewhat earnings driven with FB leading the way.  We went into the report long some puts and got pounded by the upside surprise.  To tell the whole story, we bought the FB 165 puts @ $4.00 or so and when they ran up we sold half @ $8.20, taking all of our money out of the trade.  I would never go naked long or short into earnings of a company this volatile, but I was wrong and it negated a lot of thought, and of course, profits.  Could have just as easily been bad and opened lower, but the point is that we try to control risk and take advantage of opportunities for greater gains.  So, FB helped the tech sector and the market charged ahead with DJIA +238.44 (.99%), NASDAQ +114.94 (1.64%), S&P +27.54 (1.04%), the Russell +7.43 (.40%), and Transports were clearly the weak sister finishing -93.77 (.89%) on the back of AMR.
The internals were higher but not excessive at both volume and A/D on both NYSE and NASDAQ 2:1 positive.

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, aside from the FB, we also had an outstanding gain for one of the severely beaten down darlings, CMG.  Their new CEO, from Taco Bell has done a remarkable job, and while the numbers show the progress, the stock price was an outperformer with an open of $388 +49 can a continuation to close the day $423.04 +83.52 (24.6%).  Remember that before they had a supply chain issue CMG was as high as $758 in mid- 2015.Also reporting were ORLY +35.92 (16.2%), AMZN +96.04 (6.24%), INTC +4.32 (8.1%), MFST, a beat but -1.13(1.1%) after initial reaction was +$2.00, BIDU +18.32 (7.68%), and SBUX -$1.63 (2.96%).  All in all the earnings have been beats, both big and small, but beats nonetheless.


BIO/PHARMA, was mixed to higher with ACAD finally stabilizing @ $15.12-.08.  The rest of the group was CELG +2.74, BIIB +4.41, AMGN +.54, GILD +.80, ONCE +3.29, REGN +7.80 (2.47%), VRX + .20 (we own the 5/18 calls at  $.82  and they closed .99),  ABBV +6.01 (6.54%), TEVA +.39, MYL +.56, PRGO +.95 INNT -1.32 (6.66%) and IBB +1.90 (1.84%).


RETAIL, was higher with M +1.03, JWN +.98, KSS +.85, DDS +1.65, SHLD +.01, WMT +.77, HD +8.33 (4.7%), TJX +1.77, TGT +.74, TPR +1.17, DKS +.44, and XRT +.65.


FAANG, got the “go-ahead” from FB and they all moved higher with GOOGL +31.01, AMZN +57 before the earnings and now trading $1616.94 +156.77 (10.7%), AAPL +1.25, NFLX +10.31, TSLA +5.07, FB +15.56 (9.67%), NVDA +11.74 (5.42%), BA +.75, BIDU +20.76, BABA +6.88 (4%), IBM +1.4, BOX +.48 and XLK +1.76.

FINANCIALS, were mixed to higher as the US 10 -yr. Notes came back below 3%.  GS +1.07, JPM +.19, BAC -.07, C -.07, PNC +.03, AIG +.14, WFC -.67, and XLF +.02. We did buy XLF 5/18 calls at $ .46 and they closed $ .36.  WFC continues to amaze and astound regulator with a new misdeed weekly.  This is putting a drag on the XLF, where it is heavily weighted.

OIL, $68.21 +.16, after trading slightly lower at $67.71 we rallied again to close up on the day.  Tuesday I said, “It looks to me that we are going to test the support between $66 and $67,” and that seems to be the area to watch. The stocks were mixed to higher with CVX +2.61, APC +.67, COP +1.91, BP +.73, PSX +2.73, MPC +2.70, MRO +.49, RIG -.07, OAS -.03, OXY +.24, XOM +1.50, HES -.90, and XLE +1.08.

METALS, the gold headed lower thru the support near $1,320 and traded as low as $1,316.50 before closing $1,318.2 -4.60. We bought the GLD 5/128 calls at an average price of $ .72.  We have seen solid support repeatedly in the $1,320 area and we are long again looking for a bounce.  Copper had another short range day and closed $3.1165 -.0180.  It will take a close over $3.20 for me to get in on the long side.

BITCOIN closed $9,090 +20, and has run right back to resistance I noted last night approaching $10,000. We traded lower to 8,650 testing the gap from Monday up day before rallying to close near on the day.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 4/25/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Poor TWTR , BA & FB BEAT !!

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 26th

 

Today’s action was somewhat predictable after yesterday’s last hour rally from -600 to close -424.  We tried the upside at the open and then backed off to test yesterday’s low at 23,828 with it hitting 23,823 before trying to rally.  Up until noon we were right around unchanged with a nanosecond foray into the green until we moved higher to +100 around 3:00PM and although we fell back to unchanged for a few minutes DJIA closed +59.70(.25%),  NASDAQ -3.16, S&P500 +4.84 (.18%), the Russell -2.81(.10%) and the Transports the standout +108.03 or 1%.  The internals were slightly negative with both NYSE and NASDAQ A/D 4:3 negative and roughly 1:1 on the volume.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, Twitter (TWTR) had a second quarter in a row of growth in users and showing profits.  The stock traded as high as $34.90+4.43 (14%), but by the opening bell we were $31.44 and we made a high of only $32 before turning lower and by 10:00AM we were trading $28.14 – 2.33  (7%).  BA, on the other hand, had earnings gain at every metric that the investment community uses to value it and although it sold off after the open it finished the day with a gain of $13.80 (4.2%), and added 96 Dow points.  Facebook had better than expected earnings after the close and the commentary was bullish, with the exception of the cost of making the necessary changes for privacy in Europe, and then the US will probably follow.  This will cause a decline in ADUs (average daily users) in the next quarter, but an additional $9 Billion in buyback seemed to soothe the pain.  As noted below (FAANG Sector) we still hold a half position in the 5/165 puts and I will make a decision as to what I want to do since those puts have 3 weeks to run and frankly this move higher after the close, even with its magnitude, only takes us right back into the heart of the overhead resistance.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed to higher with ACAD again lower on questions from the FDA about one of their drugs.  What sets this one apart is that this is the third time I’ve noted this story, on 2/28 when we were -6.24 (20%), 4/9 -5.03 (23%) and today’s drop of $4.27 (22%) but down from $33 for a 60 day decline of over 50%.  The rest of the group was CELG -.03, BIIB +7.30, AMGN +3.37, GILD +.60, ONCE -1.30, VRTX -.52, VRX +.13 (we own the 5/18 calls at  $.82  and they closed .91),  INCY +.64, ABBV +1.01, TEVA -.28, MYL -1.31 (3.25%), PRGO -2.49 (3.22%) and IBB -.07.

 

 

RETAIL, was mixed to higher with M +.22, JWN +.84, KSS +.77, DDS +.50, SHLD -.10 (3%), WMT +.69, HD +1.13, TJX +.24, TGT +.61, DKS -.07 and XRT +.25.

 

 

 

FAANG, finally had a mixed to higher day with GOOGL +8.46, AMZN +11.41, AAPL +1.31, NFLX +.70 (and $15 off its low of the day), TSLA -2.60, NVDA -1.20  (but $10 off its low), FB was unchanged but reported earnings after the close and is trading 167.57 + $7.97. We have been short the stock with the FB 5/165 puts and sold half on our 100% Up rule so wherever they open tomorrow will still be profit, and they don’t expire for a 3 week,  BA, mentioned above +14.44 (4.39%), BIDU +1.59, BABA -1.72, IBM +.47, BOX -.17, and XLK +.43.

 

FINANCIALS, were weaker in the morning but rallied from the lows and with the exception of GS -3.26, most were either up on the day or at least closing  at the highs with JPM -.28, BAC unchanged, C +.41, PNC +.69, AIG +.31 and XLF +.07. We did buy XLF 5/18 calls at $ .46 and they closed $ .42.

 

OIL, $68.05 +35, after trading as low as $67.11 on the AEI build # (drawdown expected) it again showed why I consider the $66-67 as strong support.  Yesterday I said, “It looks to me that we are going to test the support between $66 and $67.” The stocks were mixed to higher with CVX +.41, APC +.74, COP -.31, BP -.02, PSX +.14, MPC +.58, MRO +.26, RIG +.08, OAS +.40 (3.91%), OXY +.02, XOM +1.21, HES +1.69, and XLE +.73.

 

METALS, the gold headed back to the support near $1,320 again and closed$1,322.80 -10.2. We bought the GLD 5/128 calls at an average price of $ .72.  We have seen solid support repeatedly in the $1,320 area and we are long again looking for a bounce.  Copper had another short range day and closed $3.1345 -.0065.  It will take a close over $3.20 for me to get in on the long side.

 

BITCOIN closed $9,070 -390, and has run right back to resistance I notes last night approaching $10,000. Today’s $1000 range shows there is still interest, but to me we are in a range from $8,000 to 9,500 for now.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 4/24/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

When Good isn’t Good Enough !!

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 25th

 

Today’s action was particularly ugly with an up open based on the futures and the positive reaction to CAT, VZ, UTX, LMT, MMM, and KO numbers.  It didn’t last long as KO lost its gain and MMM’s bad news drove us from higher to lower on the day.  By noon we had hung around unchanged and we started a selloff fueled by questions of guidance and are we at “peak” earnings.  CAT was clearly the big dog today having opened + 5.76 and continued to a high of $161.10 before the CFO stated that this was going to be the “high water mark” for the year, and we headed lower to close $144.27 -9.72 (6.3%) and $17 (not a typo) off the highs. MMM missed and was -14.76 (6.84%).  What I found interesting was the market internals were nowhere near as bad as a -613 point DJIA at the low and closing -424.56 (1.74%).  On the NYSE and NASDAQ we were 5:3 down volume and 9:5 A/D.  This was clearly a Dow Industrials decline with AAPL -16 Dow points, BA & CAT -66 each, GS -30, MMM -101, TRV -30, and V -22 Dow Points.  NASDAQ -121.25 (1.7%), S&P500 -35.73 (1.34%), the Russell -8.84 (.57) and Transports -201.05 (2%). The other issue was the yield on the 10yr Notes briefly touching just over 3% (3.001%) but backing off to close 2.985.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, as above, the earning season is here and rather than hit them all, the winners in earnings were KO, UTX, LMT,TRV but all finished lower.  VZ was a beat and was +1.01 (2.01%) and after the close TXN +5.59 and CREE +2.58.

EW missed and is -10.77 in late trading.  The BIGGEST issue was the FAANGS, and I will discuss them in their own sector update.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was lower with BIIB down on an earnings miss but fought back all day based on the value of their pipeline, and closed +2.85 (1.1%).  Only INNT was higher +1.84 (10.4%) and the rest was all red ink with AMGN -3.16, GILD -1.29, ONCE -2.55, VRX -.07 we own the 5/18 calls at  $.82  and they closed .85.  The rest are lower with the IBB -1.52 (1.45%).

 

 

RETAIL, was mixed with M +.04, JWN -.26, KSS -.43, DDS +.59, SHLD +.08, WMT +.43, HD -1.40, TJX -.14, TGT -.42, TPR -.40 DKS +.16, and XRT -.09.

 

 

 

FAANG, this was the UGLIEST group today with the GOOGL news last night not really definitive with the stock touching 1123.99 but closing slightly lower, but today hammered for 51.31 (4.78, AMZN -56.86 (3.75), AAPL -2.16 (1.3%), NFLX -11.17 (3.5%), TSLA +.13, NVDA -1.88, FB -6.15(3.7%) We own the 5/165 puts @m $4.18 and sold half on the 100% Up rule, so we have no money at risk going into tomorrow night’s earnings report and if they miss or have bad guidance we are in position.  BA -8.89 (2.6%), BIDU -.01, BABA -2.30, IBM -.15 BOX -.44 and XLK -1.14 (1.74%).

 

FINANCIALS, were stronger in the morning but fell with the rest of the market.  GS -3.79, JPM -.52, BAC -.12, C -.36, PNC -.20, AIG -.09 and XLF -.16. We did buy XLF 5/18 calls at $ .46 and they closed $ .40.

 

OIL, $67.70 -.94, after trading as high as $69.38 we turned down and finished lower.  It looks to me that we are going to test the support between $66 and $67. The stocks were lower but not in any meaningful way with CVX -1.46, APC -.69, COP +.02, BP +.34, MRO -.27, RIG +.02, OAS -.09, OXY +.10, XOM -1.27,and XLE -.62.

 

METALS, the gold held its support near $1,320 again and has a good day rallying to close near the highs at $1,333 +$9.  We bought the GLD 5/128 calls at an average price of $ .72.  We have seen solid support repeatedly in the $1,320 area and we are long again looking for a bounce.  Copper rallied from the $3.10 to close $3.1420 +.0315.  It will take a close over $3.20 for me to get in on the long side.

 

BITCOIN closed $9,460 +580, and has finally made a recovery. Today’s better range and change was impressive and the close near the highs. It has some clear sailing towards $10,000 but support is way back @ $8,350 or so.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 4/23/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 24th

 

Today’s action was unimpressive at the start with a small rally and then a small decline.  By the end of the day we had a high of +73 and a low of -134 on the DJIA with a close 0f -14.25 (.06%), NASDAQ -17.53 (.24%) S&P500 +.15(.01%) and the Russell -2.00(.13%) and the big winner, Transports +42.25(.03%).  Internals were also a boring and slightly negative with NYSE 1:1 volume and A/D 3:4 and NASDAQ 1.5:1 negative volume and 3:4 A/D.  Pretty much a snooze.  Even GOOGL, who had numbers so disjointed that after closing $1,073.81 it traded up to $1,123.99 and all the way back to 1,069.47

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had a couple of those “disaster du jure” action in PRTA, halted premarket on the discontinuation of a trial.  When the smoke cleared the quotes were about 60% lower and at the open we were $13.69 – 23.15 (62%) and it continued lower to close $11.50 -25.34 (68.78%).  Another one was AKRX.  This one started the year around $22, received a buyout bid of $34 and traded up there and in late February reported a data breach that put the deal into question and the stock fell back 45% to $17.  Today the company is actually suing its buyout partner to make good on the deal and the stock opened $12.80 -6.90 (34%) and continued to close $13.05 – 6.65 (33.76%).  Last, a turnaround, HAS took a substantial hit to earnings and revenues due to the bankruptcy of Toys R Us and opened $79 .04 - $3.77 before turning up and closing near the highs of the day at $82.12 +3.31 (4%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed, but not unexciting, since several of the names we follow were up or down several percent.  BIIB -3.03, AMGN +3.54, ONCE -3.46, ISRG -8.43, ICPT -1.03, INCY -2.46, QURE -1.14, INNT -2.21 (10.7%), and VRX +.35 (2.04%).  IBB was -.17. We own the 5/18 calls at $ .82 average and they closed the day $ .88.

 

 

RETAIL, was higher with M+.50, JWN +1.37, KSS+1.25, DDS +.79, SHLD +.23 (7.64%), WMT -.78, HD +1.06, TJX +.75, TGT +.64, TPR -.03, and the brands were strong with LULU +.49, UAA =.65, RL +3.16(2.87%), VFC +.60 with XRT +.47 (1.07%).

 

 

 

FAANG, this group lower today with GOOGL -7.95, AMZN -4.49, AAPL -.57, NFLX -9.08, TSLA -8.24, NVDA -4.71, FB -.63, BA +1.11, BIDU -1.08, BABA -3.23, IBM +1.00 and a new name, BOX +2.44 (bot 300 @$22.61) and XLK -.24.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed to lower with GS -5.26, JPM -.56, BAC +.08, C -.45, PNC +1.09, AIG -.25, and XLF -.03. We did buy XLF 8/18 calls at $ .46 and they closed $ .48.

 

OIL, $68.40 +.24, after trading as low as $67.14 but rallied to close up on the day. This pullback is actually welcome.  There is good support $66.50-67, as today’s bounce confirms. The stocks were higher with CVX +1.29, APC +.29, COP -.31, BP +.67, PSX +.49, MRO -.04, RIG +.11, OAS +.17, OXY +.78, XOM +.65, HES +.73, and XLE +.45.

 

METALS, the gold gapped lower and traded down to $1,323.80 allowing us to buy the GLD 5/128 calls at an average price of $ .72.  We have seen solid support repeatedly in the $1,320 area and we are long again looking for a bounce.  We are trading +$3.00 tonight.  Copper had a $ .10 day testing $3.17 but falling back to close $3.1105.

 

BITCOIN closed $8,880 +350, has finally made a recovery. Today’s better range and change was impressive and the close near the highs. It is riding the Bollinger bands lower and the rate of decline seems be slowing. Tonight we are trading higher by another $330 @ $9,120.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 4/19/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Chips Take Us Lower

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 20th

 

Today’s action was solidly lower right from the start with weakness in the chip stocks, not PEP and Lay’s but the ones we count on to run all those many, many Internet of things and IPads and laptops, etc.  As a group they put in a dramatically ugly performance with the ETF, SMH gapping down $2.00 and then falling all day to close 100.12 -4.67(4.46%). I’ll enumerate below.  The market was lower by almost 200 at midday but around 1:30 we bottomed and worked sideway to higher until 3:45 when we cut the loss to less than half to close 24,664.89 -83.18 (.34%).  NASDAQ was -57.18 (.78%), S&P500 -15.51 (.57%), the Russell -9.71 (.62%) and the Transports -98.34 (.009%). The internals were soft and negative all day with NYSE volume 4:3 and A/D 2:1 while NSDAQ a little worse at 3:1 and 9:5 respectively.  Not terrible numbers, but not what rallies are made from.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, IBM continued its slide -1.09 (.73%) just short of 9% since reporting, but the outstanding drag, noted above was the chip stocks. The highlights were TSM -2.39 (5.7%) but lower by 8% this week, AMAT-3.54 but also lower by 11.7% this week (but now sitting on the 200 day moving average),  ASML -11.22 today for a loss of 18 this week, and LRCX -13.38 today and -22 since Tuesday’s close for a 10.7% loss. The best I can say is that most are becoming quickly oversold and setting up for a bounce.  On the earnings side we had SKX after the close beating on both top and bottom but issuing weak guidance for Q2 and falling 7.48 (17.89%), I’d hate to see what they’d do with an actual miss!  This morning we had a report on PM the old Phillip Morris (no longer in the Dow) with cigarette sales missing their sales numbers and falling $15.08 (15.58%) couldn’t happen to a nicer group. And last, ACET disclosed it was having some issues renegotiating a credit agreement and it fell 45 % premarket and finished the day $2.66 – 4.74 (64.05%). I hate when that happens.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was lower across the board and after a steep decline, VRX touched $16.91 before rallying to close $17.33 -.07.  We own the 5/18 calls at $ .82 average and they closed the day $ .85.  The biggest losers were INNT -4.11(16.4%), CELG -1.39, BIIB -2.01, REGN -4.89, ISRG -8.31 (1.77%), ICPT -2.75 and IBB -1.07(1%).

 

RETAIL, was mixed to lower with M +.01, JWN -.05, KSS-1.07, DDS +.39, SHLD -.10 (3.17%), WMT +.32, HD -2.17, TJX -.54, TGT-1.45(2%), DKS -.54 and XRT -.55 (1.22%).

 

FAANG, this group was higher today but also tarnished a bit by negative action in AAOL-5.14, NFLX -2.25 and NVDA -7.43.  The rest of the list was GOOGL+15.88, AMZN +31.16, TSLA +6.25, FB +1.79, BA -.36, BIDU -.64, BABA -1.39, IBM-.84 and XLK -.75 (1.1%).

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed to higher with GS +.22, JPM +2.46, BAC +.69, C +1.38, PNC +2.60, AIG +.72 and XLF +.42 (1.53%) We did buy XLF 8/18 calls at $ .46 and they closed $ .55.

 

OIL, $68.33 -.14, after trading as high as 69.55 we came back in a bit to close  down a few cents and tonight we are trading $68.41. This pullback is actually welcome.  There is good support $66.50-67. The stocks were mixed with small gains or losses, with XLE +.02.

 

METALS, the gold was in another unimpressive day with the metal finishing 1,348.80 – 3.70.  I am bullish the gold metal and if it continues to consolidate we will certainly play the breakout in either direction. It is playing second fiddle to the Silver which has been has managed a 3% gain in the last 3 days. Copper was a good follow-thru day testing $3.20 but falling back to close $3.132 -.0365.

 

BITCOIN closed $8,250 +120, and while it has tried to recover, it hasn’t really made any headway.  Today’s narrow range and change was unimpressive and the close near the lows continues to make it clear that there has been a lack of interest. It is riding the Bollinger bands lower and the best thing I can say is that the rate of decline seems be slowing. I still can’t make any commitment here.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 4/17/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Goldman Kills the Financials but not the Market

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 18th

 

Today’s action was solidly higher right from the start with earnings from GS that sent it up almost 4 to $262.25 before the conference call which sent the stock below the prior close and working lower for the rest of the day to close on the lows -4.26.  So, at the open it added about 40 DJAI early and took back 30 at the close, but even this was only a blip on the way to DJIA +213.59 (.87%) with UNH and BA adding back 56 and 33 of those Dow points.  Unfortunately IBM, which added 21 Dow points had earning that no one cared for and it is trading $152.10 -8.87 from the close and we’ll have to deal with that gap of -70 in the morning. The rest of the indexes were all higher with NASDAQ +123.82 (1.74%), S&P500 +28.55 (1.07%), the Russell +16.77 (1.07%) and the DJ Transports the only loser at -17.62 (.001%) after 3 days of strong outperformance.  Market internals were positive all day with NYSE volume 3:1 and A/D 2.5:1 with NASDAQ just a little softer at 3:1 and 2:1 respectively.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, Obviously IBM was the standout for late day earning, and an interesting stat, IBM has reacted negatively to every Q1 for the last 11 years…Now they tell me…ISRG beat by $ .30 and moved while up $17.07, it is now trading $460 +25 more.

 

BIO/PHARMA, was higher with VRX +.06 we bought the 5/18 calls @ $ .77 which closed $ .89, and the biggest gainer instrument maker ISRG +34.46 (8.24%), CELG +.56, BIIB +1.24, AMGN +4.62, GILD +.81, VRTX +6.29, TEVA -.22, MYL +.26, PRGO +1.01, INNT +2.28 and IBB +2.04 (1.94).

 

RETAIL, was mixed to higher with M +.20, JWN -.75, KSS -.07, DDS -1.64, SHLD -.26 (7.7%), JCP -.08, WMT+1.06, HD +.38, TJX +.71, TGT +.45, TPR +.51, DKS -.63, and XRT +.29.

 

FAANG, this group was higher today with several major moves, GOOGL +33.26, AMZN +63.20 (4.48%), AAPL +2.23,NFLX  continued on its earnings beat +28.46 (9.25%), TSLA +2.29, NVDA +4.69, FB +3.11, BA +4.33, BIDU +5.77, BABA +4.05, IBM -6.04 on the earnings disappointment, and XLK +1.24 (1,86%).

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed to lower with GS -4.48, JPM unch., BAC +.09, C -.39, PNC -2.98, AIG -.22 and XLF unchanged. We did buy XLF calls with the XLF trading 26.85 or so, and after paying $ .60 we sold them this morning @ $ .80. We had sold half @ $1.20 on 100% Up Rule. And we added some 5/28 calls @ $ .46, and those closes .42.

 

OIL, $66.51 + .31, after trading as low as $65.59 we climbed all the way back to close higher, and we are trading $66.62. This pullback is actually welcome.  There is good support $64-65.50.  The stocks were higher with CVX +.76, APC +.60, COP +.78, BP -.02, PSX +1.04, MPC +1.03, MRO -.04, RIG +.18, OAS +.34, OXY +.31, XOM -.27, HES +.09, and XLE +.28.

 

METALS, the gold was in another short range day with the metal finishing 1,349.50 – 1.20.  I am bullish the gold metal and if it continues to consolidate we will certainly play the breakout in either direction. Copper was also an inside day with the close $3.0795 – just under $ .02.  $3.05 looks like support and $312 and 3.15 resistance.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $7,885 -95, and while it has tried to recover, it hasn’t really made any headway.  Today’s range and change was unimpressive and the close near the lows continues to make it clear that there has been a lack of interest. It is riding the Bollinger bands lower and the best thing I can say is that the rate of decline seems be slowing. I still can’t make any commitment here.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 4/16/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Marathon Monday !!

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 17th

 

Today’s action was solidly higher from the get go and the DJIA managed to hit up 312 before closing +212.90 (.87%), while NASDAQ was +49.64 (.70%), S&P500 +21.54 (.64 and the Russell +13.52 (.87%) with the Transports +240.69 (2.2,%) the leader.  Part of the rise was earning for JBHT, which was initially a bit lower but opened up and never looked back finishing $119.75 + 6.98 (6.2%).  Also in the news were made by MRK and BMY, which Cramer came out with his normal BUY<BUY<BUY last week at over $60 and had “less positive results in a lung cancer drug” and finished -4.57 (7.79%) while a direct competitor, MRK has better results (and no Cramer coverage) rose to $58.65+.48 (2.6%).  Two more issues, CLDX which you might remember moved from $2.05 in Feb. 14th to $38 and back today to $ .76 -1.57 (67%) making the rise and decline to put it back 6years.  Last was ACIA, an IPO in January 2016 that also completed a round trip from $30 to $128 by September 17 and back today to $25.63 -14.40 (35.87%) a new low on being informed that they may not sell anymore product to China, their biggest customer.  The market internals were solid on NYSE with volume 2.6:1 and A/D 3:1 while NASDAQ was just a little softer a 1.5:1 and 9:5.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, As usual there is no meaningful new information on the S – TMUS non-deal, but we did have a nice earning beat in a major transportation company.  JHBT beat but was lower in the pre-market but worked that off and by the time it opened it was $119.72, the high was $121.68 closing $119.75 +6.96 (6.19%). Last was an earnings report after the close was NFLX which was trading 307.76 -3.87 (1.24%) but as soon as the numbers came we rallied to $333.31 before closing the day   @ 323.75 +15.99 (5.2%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed to lower today with many of last week’s big gainers giving up part of their moves from the past 3 days.  ELG +1.14, BIIB -2.28, AMGN +.07, REGN -3.36, VRX +.16, we bought the 5/18 calls @ $ .77 which closed  $ .87,  MYL +.10, PRGO +.70 and the IBB -.72 (.68%)

 

RETAIL, followed the markets and finished mostly higher with M +.54, JWN +.29, KSS +.73, DDS -.94, WMT +.85, TJX +1.44, TGT +.48, TPR +.68, DKS -.71 and XRT +.32 (.72).

 

FAANG, this group was mixed to higher today with GOOGL +13.96. AMZN +18.21, AAPL +1.37, NFLX (as mentioned above +12.10), TSLA -9.84, NVDA +.90, FB +.88, BA +2.92, BIDU +2.27, BABA +2.81, IBM +1.94, and XLK +.51

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed to lower with GS +2.48, JPM -.04, BAC +.16, C -.85, PNC -2.44, AIG +.69, AIG +.12 and XLF +.12.We did buy XLF calls with the XLF trading 26.85 or so, and after paying $ .60 they closed $ .69. We had to sell half @ $1.20 on 100% Up Rule. And we added some 5/28 calls @ $ .46.

 

OIL, $66.22 -1.17, after trading to new contract highs this pullback is actually welcome.  There is good support $64-65.50.  The stocks were higher with CVX +.78, APC +.43, COP +1.00, BP -.30, PSX +3.08, MPC +2.93, MRO -.01, RIG +.19, OAS +.32, OXY +1.28, XOM +.76 HES +.17 and XLE +.73 (1.02%)

 

METALS, the gold was in another short range inside day with the metal and finished +2.80.  Copper was also an inside day with the close $3.0955 + .0235

 

 

BITCOIN closed $7,980 -130, and while it has tried to recover, it hasn’t really made any headway.  Today’s high of $8440 was unimpressive and the close near the lows continues to make it clear that there has been a lack of interest. It is riding the Bollinger bands lower and the best thing I can say is that the rate of decline seems be slowing. I still can’t make any commitment here.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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4/12/2018 There will be no daily note today ~

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Mr. Z. Goes to Washington (Day 2)

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 12th

 

Today’s action was surprising in that while the DJIA -218.55(.90%) the A/D and volume were basically 1:1, and over on the NASDAQ -25.27 (.36%) was 15:14 negative volume and 5:4 A/D.  S&P 500 was -14.68(.55%) was a quiet inside day and The Russell was +3.26 (.21%).  The drag seemed to be what action the Grand-Tweeter was going to do besides rely on TWTR in response to the attacks.  The only real issue that was open for discussion was what the Fed minutes mean.  There is plenty of debate about day to day activities but we are clearly in a rising rate environment, and that should help the financials and the market in general.  Sentiment numbers are also favoring the bears, and as reported here repeatedly, everyone is NEVER right.  We again have a wall of worry to climb.  On the upside we have the beginning of earnings next week.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, ready for round 800 of the never-ending story of Sprint / T-Mobile saga.  Both stocks were higher yesterday (TMUS +6%, and S +17%) on rumors of another go-around in this deal.  On the earnings front, BBBY beat but gave poor guidance (like last quarter) and is trading -$3.10 (14%). And in other “take-under” news, ALOG fell 13.2% on the news that Altaris, a private equity firm is buying the company for $84 in cash.

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed to lower today with many of yesterday’s big gainers giving up part of their moves from the past 3 days.  CELG -.73, BIIB +.34, AMGN -.72, GILD -.69, REGN -5.04, ICPT -4.95, INCY -1.83, ABBV +.13, TEVA +.11, MYL -1.13, PRGO -2.06 and IBB -.85 (.8%).

 

RETAIL, followed the markets and finished lower with M -.35, JWN -.46, KSS -.26, SHLD +.29 (9.45%) on questionable optimism of online auctions of some of their stores.  WMT -.46, HD -.63, TJX -.07, TGT +.41, TPR -.61 and XRT -.12.

 

FAANG, this group was mixed to lower today with GOOGL-11.44, AMZN -9.17, AAPL -.81, NFLX +5.93, TSLA -4.20, NVDA 1.67, FB +1.30, BA -6.53, BIDU -1.85, BABA -1.57, IBM .03 and XLK -.39.

 

 

FINANCIALS, were lower with GS-3.27, JPM -1.77, BAC -.55, C -.61, PNC – 2.10, AIG -.16, and XLF -.36.We did buy XLF calls with the XLF trading 26.85 or so, and after paying $ .60 they closed $ .74. We had to sell half @ $1.20 on 100% Up Rule.

 

OIL, $66.82 +1.31, after holding the old support at $60, then 62, and now seemingly it feels like another rally to test resistance between $64-65 again.  Today’s action was a clear sign that there are still buyers on the dips.  More importantly today’s move shows that were are still positively affected by geopolitical troubles in the Middle East. The stocks were again up across the board with CVX +.40, APC +1.59, COP +.89, BP +.32, PSX +2.60, MPC +.32, MRO +.51, RIG +.69, OAS +.32, OXY 1.17, XOM +.63, HES +1.51 and XLE +.73 (1.04%).

 

METALS, the gold was able to move over $1,352 ran straight through $1,360 to $1,369 before coming back to close $1,360 +14.10. We used the strength to sell the second half of the position and will be looking for a spot to re-establish a position.  Copper was up early to test $3.15 but fell back to close $3.1120 -.005.  A close over $3.15.90 should yield another test at $3.20-3.22.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,930 +110, and while it has tried to recover, it hasn’t really made any headway.  It is riding the Bollinger bands lower and the best thing I can say is that the rate of decline seems be slowing. I still can’t make any commitment here.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 4/10/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Mr. Z. Goes to Washington

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 11th

 

Today’s action was substantially better than yesterday with no last hour selloff and better internals.  Not only was the NYSE volume 7:1 up with 3:1 A/D, and NASDAQ volume 3:1 and A/D 4:1, but the rotation from FAANG to the broader Russell 2000 showed up with DJIA +428.90(1.7%) and Russell +28.97(1.91%).  NASDAQ was +143.96(2.07%) and S&P500 +43.71(1.67%), with the DJ Transports +108.82 (1%).  Mr. Zuckerberg is in front of the Senate and naturally there is the requisite grandstanding by senators of both parties, and I am struck by how little Mr. Z. is willing to discuss about the inner workings of his company.  If I were to count the number of times he has answered that “I’m not sure but I’ll get back to you,” I would already be out of fingers and toes.  But, clearly the market is satisfied with his answers since the stock has moved from $161 to $165 since he started before the close.  There were several issues that showed where the senators who actually cared about the answers were curious.  One in particular asked if  Mr. Z ”would you like to share at what hotel you stayed last night?” while another questioned why if you actually read the Terms of Service you were required to Opt OUT, rather than automatically opt IN by not addressing the issue.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, one company that brought to your attention in the recent past, WATT, was granted an approval from the FCC for their wireless charging product.  After trading as high as $19.98 closed $18.31 +1.66(9.97%).  Another, SPPI, announced their progress in a trial for “non-small cell” lung cancer and closed on the highs at $20.76 +6.13(42%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, was higher again today with gains from 1.3% to 12.1%.  Highlights are CELG +2.50, BIIB +7.57, AMGN +3.51, REGN +8.34, VRTX +4.41, ICPT+5.85, ABBV+3.14, TEVA +.67, PRGO +1.11 and IBB+2.83 (2.75%).

 

RETAIL, followed the markets and finished higher with M +.10, JWN +1.44, DDS +3.07, KORS +.96, SHLD +.25 (8.87%), WMT +.10, HD +.70, TJX-.24, TGT+1.20, TPR +.46 and XRT +.92 (2.08%).

 

 

FAANG, this group was higher all day and only got stronger during the Zuckerberg questioning in the Senate.  GOOGL +13.91, AMZN +29.17, AAPL +2.85, NFLX +8.47, TSLA +13.64, NVDA +12.84, FB +6.65, BA +11.67, BIDU +6.50, BABA +7.63, IBM +2.70, and XLK +1.59 (2.46%).

 

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS +3.86, JPM +1.80, BAC +.59, PNC +2.33, AIG +.07 and XLF +.41 (1.5%). We did buy XLF calls with the XLF trading 26.85 or so, and after paying $ .60 they closed $1.00. We had to sell half @ $1.20 on 100% Up Rule.

 

OIL, $65.51 +2.09, after holding the old support at $60, then 62, and now seemingly it feels like another rally to test resistance between $64-65 again.  Today’s action was a clear sign that there are still buyers on the dips.  The stocks were up across the board with gains of 2 – 7% with CVX +2.72, APC +2.73, PSX +2.51, MPC +2.03, MRO +.84 (5.14%), RIG +.60, OAS +.58, OXY +1.58, XOM +2.08, HES +2.09, and XLE +2.24 (3.31%).

 

METALS, the gold was +5.80 but needs to close over $1,352 if it is going to maintain a bullish stance. Remember that we sold half of the position on the 100% Up Rule at $2.66 a week ago, so there is no cost in the current position. Copper was higher by

$ .06 @ $3.1370.  A close over $3.15.90 should yield another test at $3.20-3.22.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,820 +175, and while it has tried to recover, it hasn’t really made any headway.  It is riding the Bollinger bands lower and the best thing I can say is that the rate of decline seems be slowing. I still can’t make any commitment here.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 4/9/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Not a Great Day !!

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 10th

 

Today’s action was very disappointing.  After a slightly higher open we built a steady move higher for 4 ½ hours and then gave up the 80% of the gain to close barely up on the day.  Market internals we 1:1 on NYSE for both volume and A/D while over on NASDAQ volume was 2:1 up and A/D was 15:14.  The DJIA was +46.34 (.19%), NASDAQ +35.23 (.51%), S&P 500 +8.69 (.33%), the Russell +1.17(.08%) and DJ Transports -27 after being +110 at 2:00PM.  This is not great action regardless of whether or not there is heavy or weak volume.  We are getting into a pattern of fading any excessive action in either direction, and of course, while it may be exciting way for traders to make money, it is not particularly positive for those looking to make real “investing” decisions.  A couple of weeks ago one of my favorite subscribers asked me “How long are we going to have this pattern of higher opens and selloffs to the close?” and my tongue in cheek answer was, “Right up until you figure on it as a trading strategy.”  Count on not being able to count on it.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had some big news in the Bio/pharma sector on both sides with AVXS receiving a bid just 88% over Friday’s close.  Many in that sector call this a shining endorsement of “gene replacement therapy.” AVXS finished the day at $210.46 +94.55 (81.6%).  Another big winner was Tourette syndrome and it closed $6.01 +.81 after trading as high as 7.69.  It wasn’t all good news in the group as ACAD  was featured in a CNN story about disappointment on Nuplazid, a Parkinson’s treatment, finished the day $16.50 -5.03 (23.3%), and the worst move was by MNLO, whose disappointing results for atopic dermatitis trial was pounded to dramatic new lows as it closed $8.17 -$27.05 or 76.8%.  This was a new deal on January 25th of this year priced at $17 and its previous low $20.50 opening day, and the low since the open of $29.50 just 10 days ago. I just hate when that happens !

 

BIO/PHARMA, was higher today after touching the 200 day moving average on the IBB Friday.  The only one negative on the day for my list was ICPT -2.60 (3.6%) and the others were AMGN +1.48, GILD +.25, ONCE+8.30(13.3%), VRTX +2.51, INCY+1.27, ABBV +.92, TEVA +.16, MYL +.48, PRGO +.90, Qure +3.61 (16.4%), INNT +.82 and IBB +1.84 (1.82%).

 

 

 

RETAIL, didn’t follow the markets and finished mostly lower with M-.51, JWN+.72, KSS -.50, DDS -1.03, KORS-.59, SHLD +.01, WMT -.50, HD -1.95, TJX-.74, TGT-.92, TPR +.14, RL+.70 and XRT -.26.

 

 

FAANG, this group was mostly higher all day until the sell-off and we closed with most stocks well off their highs.  GOOGL +12.05 (after being +32), AMZN -.23 (also 35 higher), AAPL +1.76, NFLX +2.44, TSLA-7.90, NVDA +5.35, FB -.62, B-3.12, BIDU +4.58, BABA+2.18, IBM +1.88, and XLK +.50.

 

 

FINANCIALS, were able to hold onto the gains with GS +2.53, JPM+1.38, BAC +.32, C +.90, PNC +1.35, AIG- .36 and XLF +.15. We did buy XLF calls with the XLF trading 26.85 or so, and after paying $ .60 they closed $ .70. We had to sell half @ $1.20 on 100% Up Rule.

 

OIL, $63.42 + 1.36, after trading an inside day we closed much closer to the highs.  It is trading - .18 tonight.  Demand seems to be holding up well and again we bounced higher. The old support was $60, then 62, and now seemingly it feels like another rally to test resistance between $64-65 again.  The stocks were mostly higher with CVX +1.25, APC +.97, COP +1.34, BP -.26, PSX +.77, MRO+.12, RIG+.18, OAS +.01, OXY +1.40, XOM +.03, HES +.51 and XLE +.32.

 

METALS, the gold was unable to move through the resistance I discussed yesterday   just over the close and also up to $1,350, we closed 1,340.10 +$4 after trying $1,352 again. Remember that we sold half of the position on the 100% Up Rule at $2.66 a week ago, so there is no cost in the current position. Copper was slightly lower at $3.07 and we really need a close over $3.10 to get this back on track.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,645 + 35, and while it has tried to recover, it hasn’t really made any headway.  It is riding the Bollinger bands lower and the best thing I can say is that the rate of decline seems be slowing. I still can’t make any commitment here.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 4/4/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Couldn’t Have Scripted it An Better !!

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 5th

 

Today’s action was amazing.  We generally get a day like today only a few times a year. The dramatic decline overnight drove the futures to what it turned out to be excessive.  Most investors were distraught at a -500 point open, but as mentioned here, we’ve been waiting for the XLF to move lower to buy some, and buy we did.  At 9:32 a text went out to buy the XLF 4/27 calls @ $ .60 or better (they were trading .55) and we got filled before the turn.  These closed $1.00.  The market started back up almost immediately and within 10 minutes or so we were down “only” 400.  It wasn’t a “V” rebound but rather a continuous building with backing and filling until 1:30 we broke above unchanged and went on a tear uninterrupted over 30 S&P points. We also traded the SPY expiring today $260 calls for a gain of 56% and then we traded the 261 for a gain of 204%.  The markets all closed higher with DJIA +230.94(.96%), NASDAQ +100.83(1.45%), S&P 500 +30.24(1.16%), the Russell +19.51 (1.29%) and DJ Transports the only disappointment at -5.86.  Market internals at the open on NYSE was 4:1 down with the A/D 3:1 down finishing 2.5:1 and 2:1 up.  NASDAQ was only 3:1 and 2:1 down finishing 3:1 up on both.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, clearly Spotify (SPOT) was the main focus yesterday as a new listing on NYSE without an actual money raise.  While it held up well yesterday and opened $140 -8 and after trading as low as $135.50 closed 144.22 -4.79.  The proposed deal between CBS to “take under” Viacom, was firmly dismissed as too low a valuation.    CLDR, a software sharing service for business developers beat top line but missed revenues and gave disappointing guidance.  The stock was $16.79 -4.00 but continued lower today to close 13.29 -8.95 or 40%.  I finally got some information on a names I’ve been talking about here with no REAL news beyond a new CEO and the fact that it has become a serial “halted for price movement,” for the last several weeks.  The name has been changed since it was a “reverse merger” into a prior listed deal and it is now called Innovate Biopharmaceuticals.  I will start to cover it in the Bio/Pharma sector from now on.  It has been very volatile, moving from $5 early March to trade as high as $50.50 yesterday and finished the day today at $35.16-10.84 (23.7%).  I’d say that the company has quite a way to go to live up to the stock.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was higher today building on yesterday’s gains with CELG +3.82, BIIB +5.92, AMGN+5.30, GILD +1.65, REGN+5.15, ICPT +.68, INCY+2.09, TEVA +.29, MYL +.41, PRGO+.57, QURE +.92 and IBB +2.99 (2.91%).

 

RETAIL, was higher across the board with M+.91, JWN +1.22, DDS +2.68, SHLD +.20(7.3%), WMT +.40, HD +3.64, TJX +1.64, TGT+2.33, TPR +.80, DKS +1.33, RL +2.86 and XRT +1.21 (2.77%).

 

FAANG, this group was mostly higher with GOOGL +18.32, AMZN after holding the recent lows at $1352 rallied hard and after trading $1415 it closed $1410.57 +18.52 and is currently $5 higher.  AAPL +3.20, NFLX +6.31, TSLA +19.10, NVDA +1.15, FB  was lower by 1.15 but after Zuckerberg was interviewed it is now +$3.59, BA -3.82, BIDU +4.28, BABA -2.02, IBM +4.41 and XLK +.97.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS+2.42, JPM +1.75, BAC +.34, C +.95, PNC +1.40, AIG +.49 and XLF +.32.  As I said last night, I am planning on a new position in XLF calls in the next day or two.  We did buy them with the XLF trading 26.85 or so, and after paying $ .60 they closed $1.00.

 

OIL, $63.37 - .14, after trading all the way down to $62.06 we bounced off the  $61-62 major support and as expected  we will can mount another run back to contract highs.  Most economic news is coming out positive so there is no reason to expect a decrease in demand. The stocks were mixed with CVX -.35, APC -.12, COP-.47, BP +.79, PSX -.23, MPC-1.13, MRO-.11, RIG-.17, OAS-.08, OXY-.01, XOM-.12 HES +.56 and XLE -.09.

 

METALS, the gold was unable to move through the resistance I discussed yesterday   just over the close and also up to $1,350, we closed 1,340 +2.90 after trying $1,352 again. Remember that we sold half of the position on the 100% Up Rule at $2.66 a week ago, so there is no cost in the current position. After all of the tariff news overnight Copper was pounded all the way to $2.97 but managed a close of $3.0105 -.053.  We’ll see how we act in this $3.00 area before making any commitment in the metal.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,905 -580, and while it has tried to recover, it hasn’t really made any headway.  The chart is really ugly with the March 5th high of $11,780 it has pretty much move straight down with only a minor interruption around $8,000.  These prices are contract lows and while it deserves a bounce (Dead Cat?) I can’t make any commitment here.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 4/3/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Is AMZN the Market ??

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 4th


Today’s action was a slightly higher open followed by a pull back to about unchanged and then a boring range bound couple of hours until a news release from the White House that there was “no new action planned against Amazon.”  At that point the S&P 500 was trading 2,580 and the next 5 minute bar was 2580 up to 2596, followed by 2 more 5 minute bars up to the new high of the day at 2619.  These numbers may not seem excessive, but a move of 40 points is equal to 1.6% and that is more than what we have had as a daily range most days.  At the same time AMZN moved from $1,360 to $1,414, or 4.8%.  These are not average, mundane moves by any stretch of imagination.  For the day we closed DJIA +389.17(1.65%), NASDAQ+71.16(1.04%), S&P500 +32.57(1.26%), the Russell 2000+19.62(1.3%) and Transports+203.62(1.9%).
Market internals on NYSE were 4:1 up volume and 3:1 A/D and NASDAQ 2:1 and 9:5 respectively.


SECTORS:

Other names in the news, clearly Spotify (SPOT) was the main focus today as a new listing on NYSE without an actual money raise.  Unusual but not unheard of since they just wanted those who own the shares to be able to both value and have the option to sell all or part of their position.  The deal was “advised” by Morgan Stanley, who put a $130 base value as a guideline.  It opens around 12:45 PM at $165.90 and traded up to $169 before closing $149.01.  There was also a deal between CBS to “take under” Viacom.  In case you’re not familiar with this tactic, CBS will pay a price lower that the price that the stock is trading at the moment. Of course, VIA has had a strange past with its ownership clouded by holding of Sumner Redstone and his daughter Sherrie.  They have controlled VIA through a private holding company.  There are several contingencies dealing with future management of the combined newco.  HUM didn’t give up any of the gains from yesterday’s move when coupled with WMT in some combination.  CLDR, a software sharing service for business developers beat top line but missed revenues and gave disappointing guidance.  The stock was $22.24 up from 15 in the past 6 months but is trading $16.70 -5.54 or 25%.


BIO/PHARMA, was mostly higher today with a couple of standouts.  AMGN +3.45(2.08%), VRX +.51(3.38%), ICPT +2.83 (4.72%) INCY +1.33, GILD +.57, TEVA +.27, BIIB -.41 and IBB +.48 (.47%).

RETAIL, was higher with the only two on my list that were lower were M-.37 and SIG -.62 (1.72%).  The rest were higher with JWN +.67, KSS +.98, DDS+1.22, SHLD+.10, JCP+.23, WMT +1.15, HD +.60, NKE+2.43(3.79%), DKS +.39 and XRT +.56 (1.3%).

FAANG, this group was mostly higher with IBM -.13, BABA-3.51 the only losers.  GOOGL +6.05, AMZN+20.85, AAPL +1.33, NFLX +3.31, TSLA +15.78, NVDA +4.00, FB +.51, BA +5.57 and XLK +.64 (1%).

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS+3.35, JPM+1.48, BAC+.25, C+.64, PNC +.51, AIG +.30 and XLF +.36. I am planning on a new position in XLF calls in the next day or two.

OIL, $63.51 +.50, after trading in a short range today we closed near the highs and up on the day.  $61-62 is major support and I would expect that we will hold that area and mount another run back to contract highs.  Most economic news is coming out positive so there is no reason to expect a decrease in demand. The stocks were all higher with CVX +2.59, APC+1.03, COP+1.94, BP +.83, PSX +1.25, MRO +.43, RIG +.17, OAS +.13, OXY +1.63, XOM +1.70, HES +1.95 and XLE +1.41 (2.13%).

METALS, the gold was unable to move through the resistance I discussed yesterday   just over the close and also up to $1,350, we closed 1,337.30 -9.60. Remember that we sold half of the position on the 100% Up Rule at $2.66 a week ago, so there is no cost in the current position.  Copper was in a short range today and closed 3.0635 +.0135.  It still has a lot to do to regain $3.10-3.20.

BITCOIN closed $7,485 +4.90 and while it has tried to recover, it hasn’t really made any headway. While it has clearly has made a lot of millionaires, they were the ones from much earlier who told you about it.  Resistance is now 8,000 to 8,300 but it can be boosted or crushed by all kinds of news.

Tomorrow is another day.

CAM

 

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.

After the close 4/2/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Can it Get Any Uglier !!

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 3RD

 

Today’s action was ugly from the get go, but after the break of the close at 2,588 (3/23) it headed for the 200 day moving average @ 2,575.  The lowest close of any importance is 2,581, the close the day before the bottom at 2,532.  By 1:00 the internals on the NYSE volume was 8:1 and A/D 3.5:1 while NASDAQ was 4:1 and 3.5:1 too. By the end of the day the NYSE was 13:1 and 4:1, while NASDAQ was only slightly better at 6:1 and 4:1 respectively.  We had a minor rally coming into the close but we were still much lower with DJIA -459.92 (1.9%), NASDAQ -193.32 (2.74%), S&P500 -58.98 (2.23%), the Russell -36.90(2.41%) and the DJ Transports -206 (2%).

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, the prospect of some sort of deal with WMT sent HUM as high as $290.53 (old high 293.35) but gave up some to close 280.83 +12 (4.46%), while ALKS had an issue with an expected FDA approval that didn’t come and it fell $12.73 (22%).  One more name that you won’t see much about since it was a microcap and traded NASDAQ until it was lowered to a pink sheet with the new symbol, SLS, formerly GALE, hit a home run with a new trial with drug for breast cancer, and after hitting $10.69 it closed $8.65 +5.20 (150%) on volume of 17million shares vs. average volume of 69,000.  Since I don’t have a full sector comment for Chips, I will probably start one this week, but I want to mention that we bought a small (half size) position in INTC calls today.

 

BIO/PHARMA, I’m not going with the whole group since everyone was lower with losses ranged from ICPT -2.36%, to QURE - 6.38%, and most – 3-4%, and the ETF, IBB -$4.16 (3.9%).

 

RETAIL, was also lower across the board and we got stopped out of our position in TGT on the 50% down rule.  I’d actually like to be a buyer again but instead of a single issue I’m thinking of XRT.  This group was also down from 1 -4%, with SIG -2.44 (6.33%), DKS -1.62 (4.65%) and the XRT -1.17 (2.64%).

 

FAANG, this group was universally lower with some major percentage moves today, with GOOGL -24.51 (2.36%), AMZN -75.84 (5.24%), AAPL- 1.18 (.7%), NFLX -14.85 (5.03%), TSLA – 13.62 (5.1%), NVDA-10.59%), FB -4.57 (2.88%), BA-5.88 (1.8%), BIDU -3.12 (1.4%), BABA- 5.96 (3.25%), IBM -3.04 (1.98%), and XLK -1.51 (2.3%).

 

FINANCIALS, were also lower with the only gainer Citi, C +.28, but GS -4.66, JPM -1.97, BAC -.64 (2.13%), PNC -2.92, AIG -1.30 and XLF -.58 (2.1%).  I am planning on a new position in XRT calls in the next day or two.

 

OIL, $63.01 -1.93, After trying the highs again near $65.42 before reversing and coming all the way back to $62.80.  This is somewhat concerning since just last week we made new contract highs and could not hold.  $61-62 is major support and I would expect that we will bounce shortly.  Lumber and copper are still signaling good times ahead so I’m assuming that business is still expanding and there will continue to be good demand.  The stocks were lower with the rest of the market and the 3% decline in crude with CVX -2.04, APC-2.01, COP -1.20, BP-.74, PSX -.97, MPC-1.31, MRO-.55, RIG -.30, OAS -.30, OXY -.29, XOM -1.49, HES -2.12 and XLE -1.42 (2.11%).

 

METALS, the gold bounced off support at $1,320 and ran right back up to $1,344 and closed out the day $1,342.10 +19.30.  There is plenty of supply just over the close and also up to $1,350.  I may have to take the gain in the GLD calls we own if it can’t get through.  Remember that we sold half of the position on the 100% Up Rule at $2.66 a week ago, so there is no cost in the current position.  Copper was higher again after making a new contract low last week (2.93) but closed above that, and has since spent a couple of days around $3 and now closed $3.05 + .0245.  This one has a lot of work to do before it can move decisively back over $3.10.

 

BITCOIN closed $6,985 -255 and while it has tried to recover, it hasn’t really made any headway. While it has clearly has made a lot of millionaires, they were the ones from much earlier who told you about it.  The contract for 1 coin, on the CBOE and looks like it is aiming for contract low at $5,950.  At that point, anyone who owns this contract can ONLY have a loss.  I don’t think I need to warn you again.  This is clearly not for the faint of heart.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 3/29/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Just a Short Note

 

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 2ND

 

Today’s action was pretty typical of a short week, Christian holiday and the last week of a quarter, after a triple expiration week.

 

I’m keeping this short for two important reason, the Weekly Strategies comes out before the market opens again, and I play poker on the last Thursday night of the month.

 

We, again bought the SPY 262 calls this time for $.91 and sold half @1.76 and the second half were sold at $2.64 for a combined gain of  122%, followed by a second trade in the 263 calls @ $.71 and a sale @ $1.09, for another gain of 53%.  Exactly how I’d like to go into a long weekend.

 

I’m skipping the normal format since I’ll be updating information prior to the open Monday.  I wanted to take a moment to explain my expectation for how we will be trading for the near future.

 

The market may in fact be putting in an interim top.  You will notice that we have had some fairly large (relatively speaking) in some of the bigger names we bought “on the dip and the dip just continued.  From the technical point of view, we made a new high, seemingly every day in January and then, as if a switch was thrown on February 2nd we sold off from 2823 to 2530 in about a week.  The severity of that decline has been handled as normal and expectably, but that is simply not true.  It may be a reasonable retracement or pullback, it is not in a period of 6 trading days.

 

Since then we have made a recovery high of 2800 on 3/12, followed by another break.

This time there is definitely a reason to rejoice, since so far we have not made a lower low and we have held the rising 200 day moving average. It also held the 2/8 closing low @2581 with a low last Friday@2585.

 

To secure this period as a normal pullback we will have to first, close the gap down from last Wednesday/Thursday and then follow higher and break the 2800 high from 3/13, and lastly, to move over the January high at 2822.

 

I know this is a lot to remember, let alone follow, but that is why you pay me to give some guidance.

 

So, what to do?  I’m not saying the market is shot, or has turned to a bear market, this week we were given opportunities on both the long and short side.  We made money on both side and didn’t even have to consider our “core” positions.

 

Anyone will tell you that in the long term stocks will always make sense.  That is true, BUT, only in those terms. Try to tell that to those new investors who bought first time positions $109 that closed today $ 88.97.  18% is not pleasant, and I could use any number of examples like GE, ATT and others. You do need core positions but you should be doing something like dollar cost averaging to phase into your investment.

 

The other issue is one I’ve already discussed in this space, actually a warning. The Cryptocurrency boom was great on the way up, but you need to be able to quantify your risk.  Some of the names that I have brought up, companies that added the term “Bitcoin, or Block chain” and saw prices soar have clearly come back to earth (some actually buried).

 

I know I’m old, and I have trouble “suspending reality” to enjoy either Zombies or most of the current sci-fi offerings, but that also means that I have seen this movie before.  There is NOTHING NEW in the investment arena that we haven’t seen before.  Clearly some of the packaging has changed as have the names, but you truly need a healthy level of skepticism to guide you.  Some of those names I brought to your attention were LFIN (formerly known as Long Island Iced Tea) that I mentioned after it changed its name and went from $5 to $142 and came back to $72. There were many that said it has pulled back.  Well, not so much since today it closed 17.26 down from $75 earlier this week.

 

Another was OSTK, formerly Overstock, a web eCommerce company that actually had a reason to tout its entrance to this market.  Seemingly above board it moved in a very orderly move from Sept 17 @ $15 to reach a new high of almost $90.  It has run into some legal problem and had fallen back to $36 since early January.

 

And last, but not least, is one that actually invests in the actual Bitcoins.  Problem is that because it is early in life for a new technology and people like you and I look for a way to participate.  What better than “Bitcoin Investment Trust?”  Looks pretty interesting and moves with the coins in both directions.  The problem is that each share owns the eqiuivalent of 1/100 of a coin.  Let’s do the math, Bitcoin sells for $7340, so it has a value of $7.34. Problem is it closed $10.49, or a premium of just 43%.  I don’t know about you, but that seems high to me.

 

Tomorrow is another day

 

Have a great Holiday

Charles




After the close 3/28/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

De-FAANGED ??

 

 FOR TRADING March 29th

 

Today’s action was of great concern for those who have adopted a FAANG – based portfolio.  As if the FB news and Zuckerberg’s continuing missteps weren’t enough, we also had POTUS ragging on AMZN with issues that just don’t exist.  Chalk it up to being the bully in the school yard.  However, AMZN made a new high just a bit over 2 weeks ago @$1617 and today’s low was 1386 (14%).  The rest of the markets tended to be mostly unchanged with DJIA -9.29, NASDAQ -59.58 (.85%), S&P500 -7.62, DJ Transports +6.52, and the Russell -.54.  For some unknown reason the NASDAQ did not publish internals today but over on the NYSE they were solidly 1:1 for both volume and A/D.

 

We, again bought the SPY calls this time for $1.14 and sold half @1.97 and the second half were sold for a $ .10 loss.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had some earnings and a deal today.  Consho Resources (CXO) bought RSP Permian (RSPP) and while CXO finished -$13.75  (8.76%), RSPP closed $45 +6.08 (16.6%).BB had good numbers and traded as high $13.45 premarket, it never traded higher than 12.99 and finished down .10 at $12.30.  RH beat and ran up to 94.80 before closing +16.93 (22%).  And lastly the disaster du jour was EDGE Therapeutics (EDGE) who discontinued a second trial and collapsed from $15.59 to close $1.31 – 14.28, 91.6%.

 

BIO/PHARMA, This group finally got some across the boards gains with CELG +2.61, BIIB +6.66, AMGN -.69, ICPT -.37, INCY -.07, TEVA +.37, MTL +.89, PRGO+.67, and IBB +1.19.  We bought a small position in GILD 4/77.50 calls @ $1.76 and they closed $1.25.

 

 

RETAIL, was also higher with LULU continuing higher +7.34 after last night’s earnings report. The rest were generally higher with M +1.33 (4.7%), JWN+.04, KSS +1.38, DDS +3.18, WMT +1.73, HD +1.32, TJX +.25, TGT +.70, NKE -.60, DKS +.16, and XRT +.45.

 

 

 We bought the TGT 4/72.50 calls @ $1.07 last week and they closed $1.02 today.

 

FAANG, this group was mixed on the A/D but the losers were dramatically lower. GOOGL +1.84, AMZN -70.05 (4.7%), FB+1.61, AAPL-1.49, NFLX -14.19 (4.72%), TSLA -25 (8.95%), NVDA -3.57, BA +.43, BIDU -7.11, BABA -2.29, IBM+.84, and XLK -.43. and XLK +2.65 (4.1%).

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed to higher with +2.14, JPM +.03, BAC-.13, C -.12, PNC +.27, AIG +.20, and XLF +.05.

 

OIL, $$64.38 -.87, continued to retreat on bearish supply numbers and touched $63.72 before coming back a bit. The stocks were all lower with losses of .67% to as much as 4.02%.  The XLE closed $66.02, (1.95%).

 

METALS, after touching $1,356 yesterday we fell back to $1,324 and is lower tonight and while I’d expect it to move higher again, we really need to hold 1318-1320.  Copper continues to move on its own and it seems to hold $2.95.

 

BITCOIN closed $7,890 unchanged and while it has tried to recover, it hasn’t really made any headway. Many of social media have stated that they will not allow any advertising on their platforms. It is trading still in what I would call a “bear flag” and it couldn’t manage any upside, it closed at a new low in the formation and I’d expect a test of $7,000 shortly.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 3/27/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Just Too Much to Deal With !!

 

 

FOR TRADING March 28th

 

Today’s action was uneventful in that it didn’t quite reach premarket futures which signaled a higher open by about 100.  It hung around unchanged and slightly higher /lower until just after noon when we had a confluence of bad news from Tesla, NVDA, and the new “redheaded stepchild,” Facebook. Tesla had a crash on the model X that turned into a fire, and is being investigated by the NTSB, the report that the state of Arizona crash and death of a pedestrian is causing suspension of testing in that state, the carryover to the major chip maker, NVDA who is also “pausing” its test for the same reason, and of course more Facebook tone-deafness and inadequate response to their (our) problems.

 

On any given day we could have shrugged of one or two of these issues, but when you have the biggest names in the markets leadership all falling at the same time it is just too much.  Market internals were positive until between 12:00-1:00PM when they started to slip.  NYSE volume was 3.5:1 negative as were A/D at 2:1.  NASDAQ was the weak sister most of the day and finished 4:1 and 3:1 respectively. DJIA was -344.89 (1.43%), NASDAQ -211.73 (2.93%), S&P500 -45.93 (1.73%), DJ Transports-191.79 (1.88%), and the Russell -30.15 (1.95%).  Again, really not pretty.

 

We, on the other hand bought the SPY puts just after 2:00PM and sold them around 3:15 for a gain of 1.22% in roughly 1 hour.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, Today is a hard one to drill down for any stories, but we had earnings in LULU after the close and they beat and the stock moved from the close @$78.71 to trade as high as $86.40 and is still 83.49 +4.78 (6%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, I’m going to skip the list today since everyone was down and the IBB was 105 -3.11(2.88%).  We bought a small position in GILD 4/77.50 calls @ $1.76 and they closed $.94.

 

 

RETAIL, was also lower across the board with the exception of LULU (above), SHLD +.17 (7.3%) and TJX +2.61 (3.2%) and NKE +1.04.  The rest were M -.01, JWN +.26, KSS-.82, DDS-.06, JCP -.05, TGT -1.77(2.52%) and XRT -.92 (2.03%).

 We bought the TGT 4/72.50 calls @ $1.07 last week and they closed $1.25 today.

 

FAANG, this group was universally lower with some major percentage moves today, with GOOGL -47.15 (4.47%), AMZN -46.86(3%), FB -8.36(5.2%), AAPL-4.17(2.4%), NFLX -18.35(5.7%), TSLA-29.48(9.7%), NVDA-17.78 (7.27%), BA-7.97(2.4%), BIDU-4.98(2.1%), BABA-8.40(4.4%), IBM-1.48 and XLK -2.14 (3.21). (3.26%) and XLK +2.65 (4.1%).

 

FINANCIALS, were also all lower with the drop in the 10year notes being bought for safety with yields falling from over 2.85 yesterday to 2.78% this afternoon. GS was -7 (2.75%), JPM-1.96, BAC -.88(2.9%), C -1.55PNC -4.55(3%), AIG-.43 and XLF -.54 or (1.95%).

 

OIL, $65.25 -30, continued to run and after breaking to new contract highs and then fell back just slightly. It is trading $64.81 -.44.  The stocks were all lower and the XLE -.64 (.94%).

 

METALS, the gold was lower and although it ran into some resistance around $1,356-1,362 it closed $1,342 – 13. It’s $1,345 +3.0 tonight and unless it tanks here I’d expect it to move higher again.  Copper continues to move on its own and after trying $3.0240 it fell back and closed $3.0005 +$ .0295.

 

BITCOIN closed $7,890 -70 and while it has tried to recover, it hasn’t really made any headway. Many of social media have stated that they will not allow any advertising on their platforms. It is trading still in what I would call a “bear flag” and it couldn’t manage any upside, it closed at a new low in the formation and I’d expect a test of $7,000 shortly.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 3/26/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Very Impressive !!

 

 

FOR TRADING March 27th

 

Today’s action was driven by the futures overnight and we opened with 8:1 A/D and solid volume. After hitting +500 for the DJIA we sold off and gave up half the gain, but after the European close and lunchtime here we started up again and gained 669.40  (2.85%), NASDAQ +227.87 (3.26%), S&P500 +70.30 (2.7%), the Russell +33.46 (2.23%) and the DJ Transports +210 (2%).  I want to mention here that today was so impressive since there really wasn’t strong volume on the 1150 point decline Thursday and Friday and a major jump today. The point is that it is much easier to be down hard than it is to be up big.  To be lower you need only to have few buyers and some sellers, while you need really solid buyers with conviction to push the market higher by 700.  Today’s internals were solid with NYSE volume 6.5:1 and A/D 3:1 while over on NASDAQ was 4:1 and 2.5:1 respectively.  The only stock in the DJIA not to participate was GE-.17 (1.2%).  From the technical point of view this market has been damaged and the true test will be when we move to resistance levels in the DJIA at 24750, S&P500 2730, and the QQQs at 171, where it left a gap to the downside.  I’m not willing to say the Great bull market is over, but rallies in bear markets are fast and sharp.. So like those from Missouri, you’ll have to show me.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, On a day like today the “story” names get pushed aside so I’ll just revisit a name that have no real news even though it has had made major move.  INNT has moved from $4.89 on 3/2 it had a 3 day run to $21, pulled back to 11.75 and then had another 4 day run to $25.80 and back to $14 and today closed $27.65 today.  The amazing part is that for 3 weeks the only news was that it had been “halted for volatility,” and the recent naming of a new CEO, 13 days ago.  There undoubtedly is a company underneath it all, but OTCMarkets.com lists the company as an “Action Sports Camera and memory device sales company.

 

BIO/PHARMA, I’m going to skip the list today since everyone was up, and the IBB was 108.14 +2.85 (2.71%).  We bought a small position in GILD 4/77.50 calls @ $1.76 and they closed $1.29.

 

RETAIL, was also higher across the board with the exception of DDS and SIG.  Most were up from 1% to 7% with the biggest being SHLD +.15 or 6.88% mostly due to an interview of Eddie Lampert in Vanity Fair over the weekend reminding everyone of how great his performance used to be. The rest were M +.69, JWN +.77, KSS +1.79, DDS -3.07(3.8%), JCP +.04, WMT +2.08, LB +.35, TJX+1.19, TGT+2.40(3.54%), TPR +1.50, SIG-.36 and XRT+1.19 (2.77%).  We bought the TGT 4/72.50 calls @ $1.07 last week and they closed $1.25 today.

 

FAANG, this group was universally higher with GOOGL +27.45, AMZN +58.12 (3.9%), FB+.50(after being $11 lower), AAPL +7.68 (4.8%), NFLX+18.81 (6.25%), TSLA +2.95, NVDA +11.43 (4.9%), BA +8.99 (2.9%), BIDU +5.86, BABA +9.25 (5%), IBM +4.86 (3.26%) and XLK +2.65 (4.1%).

 

FINANCIALS, were also all higher with GS+10.19 (4.15%), JPM+3.49, BAC +1.33(4.56%), C +1.91, PNC +5.77(3.9%), AIG +.80, and XLF + .91(3.4%).

 

OIL, $65.55 -.33, continued to run and broke to new contract highs and then fell back just slightly. Again, I’m omitting the list since they were all higher but RIG -.12, with gains of 1 to 3% and XLE +1.08 (1.6%).

 

METALS, the gold was a higher and although it ran into some resistance around $1,356-1,362 it closed $1,355 +5.10. It’s too early to get evening quotes, but we own the GLD calls @ $1.32, and sold half on the 100% Up Rule last week and they closed at $3.00 today. Copper fell again today and made new life of contract lows, breaking below  the December low of $2.95.  After hitting 2.9375 it rallied only slightly to close $2.97 -.0230.

 

BITCOIN closed $7,920 -685 and while it has tried to recover, it hasn’t really made any headway. It is trading still in what I would call a “bear flag” and it couldn’t manage any upside, it closed at a new low in the formation and I’d expect a test of $7,000 shortly.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 3/22/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

No Way to Put Lipstick on This Pig

 

 

FOR TRADING March 23rd

 

Today’s action was horrendous right from the start and it went on all day without much for a surcease.  The market leaders were nowhere to be found with financials down hard from the start and technology extending their decline with FB (- 2.9%) and all the others down as much as 5.7%.  By the end of the day we were down with DJIA -724.42 (2.93%), NASDAQ -178.61 (2.43%), S&P500 -68.24 (2.52%), the Russell -35.43 (2.24%) and the DJ Transports -304.39 (2.9%).  Surprisingly the internals, while bad, were not as bad as you would expect. With NYSE volume 10:1 and A/D 4.6:1 and NASDAQ 3.5:1 AND 3:1 respectively.  The biggest DJIA losers were BA -120, GS -64, MMM-76, UNH -53, and CAT -62.None of the Dow 30 were up on the day.

I also listened to the Sheryl Sandberg’s interview and apology about the FB debacle and I have to say, I am totally unimpressed by what she had to say.  An apology about something we should have heard about 2-3 years ago doesn’t do it for me.  Nor am I willing to be a victim just because I know the reason why.  The growth of this company, on the backs of all 2.5 billion users who create no cost content with which they can sell advertising owes me AT LEAST some sort of protection.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, There were a couple of bright spots, with OMER, receiving higher reimbursement rates on their main drug and closed $15.75 +4.11 (35%), CCL was higher on an earnings beat but couldn’t hold on and closed -.86 (1.28%), MU missed and failed to make even their reduced numbers and while it was as low as 53.85, it is now $58.84.  NKE was a beat and was $64.42 -1.93 but is now $68.50 +5.  And then comes 2 of my favorites.  Neither of these two have any meaningful news with the exception of stock halts for volatility.  INNT has been from $5 to 25 and has had several days when it had a range of as much as $6-8, and today closed 21.45 +3.28 (18%).  The other one is OMEX, also no news but traded as high as $13.75 today and closed 8.30 +4.50 (118%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, I’m going to skip the list today since everyone was down, and the IBB was 108.15 -2.52 (2.28%).  We bought a small position in GILD 4/77.50 calls @ $1.76 and they closed $1.51.

 

RETAIL, was also lower across the board with the exception of NKE, discussed above.

 

FAANG, this group was the problem child with losses not seen in recent memory.  GOOGL -43.50 (3.98%), AMZN-38.52 (2.44%), FB -4.39 (2.6%), AAPL a relative winner – 2.27 (1.3%), NFLX -9.48 (3%), TSLA-6.76 (2.14%), NVDA -6.41 (2.58%), BA -16.21 (4.8%), BIDU-14.25 (5.7%), BABA -11.29 (5.78%), IBM -4.18(2.67%), and XLK -1.75 (2.58%).

 

FINANCIALS, were also all lower with GS-9.05 (3.46%), JPM-4.66 (4.08%), BAC -1.29 (4.05%), C -2.97 (4%), PNC-5.61 (3.53%), AIG-1.03 (1.8%) and XLF -1.09 (3.8%).

 We bought back the 4/29 calls @ .58 Thursday and were stopped out today @ $ .29.

 

OIL, $64.30 -.87, continued to run and break out of the $60-64 range today ran right up to $65.74, within .30 of the contract highs before coming back to earth a bit. Again, I’m omitting the list since they were all down 1-3%, with the XLE -1.38 (2%).

 

METALS, the gold was a mostly higher all day and although it ran into stiff resistance around $1,335 and closed $1,327.40 +5.90.It’s too early to get evening quotes, but we own the GLD calls and am looking for a breakout over $1,343 to send us higher. Copper fell all the way back to test $3.00 turned up just slightly to $3.02 -.0385.  It looks like a test of $2.96 again.

 

BITCOIN closed $8600 -310 and while it has tried to recover, it hasn’t really made any headway. It is trading still in what I would call a “bear flag” and it needs to get through the closes about $9200. If it can’t get through it will test $8,000 and possibly $7500.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

No Way to Put Lipstick on This Pig

 

 

FOR TRADING March 23rd

 

Today’s action was horrendous right from the start and it went on all day without much for a surcease.  The market leaders were nowhere to be found with financials down hard from the start and technology extending their decline with FB (- 2.9%) and all the others down as much as 5.7%.  By the end of the day we were down with DJIA -724.42 (2.93%), NASDAQ -178.61 (2.43%), S&P500 -68.24 (2.52%), the Russell -35.43 (2.24%) and the DJ Transports -304.39 (2.9%).  Surprisingly the internals, while bad, were not as bad as you would expect. With NYSE volume 10:1 and A/D 4.6:1 and NASDAQ 3.5:1 AND 3:1 respectively.  The biggest DJIA losers were BA -120, GS -64, MMM-76, UNH -53, and CAT -62.None of the Dow 30 were up on the day.

I also listened to the Sheryl Sandberg’s interview and apology about the FB debacle and I have to say, I am totally unimpressed by what she had to say.  An apology about something we should have heard about 2-3 years ago doesn’t do it for me.  Nor am I willing to be a victim just because I know the reason why.  The growth of this company, on the backs of all 2.5 billion users who create no cost content with which they can sell advertising owes me AT LEAST some sort of protection.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, There were a couple of bright spots, with OMER, receiving higher reimbursement rates on their main drug and closed $15.75 +4.11 (35%), CCL was higher on an earnings beat but couldn’t hold on and closed -.86 (1.28%), MU missed and failed to make even their reduced numbers and while it was as low as 53.85, it is now $58.84.  NKE was a beat and was $64.42 -1.93 but is now $68.50 +5.  And then comes 2 of my favorites.  Neither of these two have any meaningful news with the exception of stock halts for volatility.  INNT has been from $5 to 25 and has had several days when it had a range of as much as $6-8, and today closed 21.45 +3.28 (18%).  The other one is OMEX, also no news but traded as high as $13.75 today and closed 8.30 +4.50 (118%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, I’m going to skip the list today since everyone was down, and the IBB was 108.15 -2.52 (2.28%).  We bought a small position in GILD 4/77.50 calls @ $1.76 and they closed $1.51.

 

RETAIL, was also lower across the board with the exception of NKE, discussed above.

 

FAANG, this group was the problem child with losses not seen in recent memory.  GOOGL -43.50 (3.98%), AMZN-38.52 (2.44%), FB -4.39 (2.6%), AAPL a relative winner – 2.27 (1.3%), NFLX -9.48 (3%), TSLA-6.76 (2.14%), NVDA -6.41 (2.58%), BA -16.21 (4.8%), BIDU-14.25 (5.7%), BABA -11.29 (5.78%), IBM -4.18(2.67%), and XLK -1.75 (2.58%).

 

FINANCIALS, were also all lower with GS-9.05 (3.46%), JPM-4.66 (4.08%), BAC -1.29 (4.05%), C -2.97 (4%), PNC-5.61 (3.53%), AIG-1.03 (1.8%) and XLF -1.09 (3.8%).

 We bought back the 4/29 calls @ .58 Thursday and were stopped out today @ $ .29.

 

OIL, $64.30 -.87, continued to run and break out of the $60-64 range today ran right up to $65.74, within .30 of the contract highs before coming back to earth a bit. Again, I’m omitting the list since they were all down 1-3%, with the XLE -1.38 (2%).

 

METALS, the gold was a mostly higher all day and although it ran into stiff resistance around $1,335 and closed $1,327.40 +5.90.It’s too early to get evening quotes, but we own the GLD calls and am looking for a breakout over $1,343 to send us higher. Copper fell all the way back to test $3.00 turned up just slightly to $3.02 -.0385.  It looks like a test of $2.96 again.

 

BITCOIN closed $8600 -310 and while it has tried to recover, it hasn’t really made any headway. It is trading still in what I would call a “bear flag” and it needs to get through the closes about $9200. If it can’t get through it will test $8,000 and possibly $7500.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 3/21/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 22nd

 

Today’s action was better than yesterday with the markets reacting favorably to the new Fed Chairman’s statements and Q & A session.  The new Chair was short on “theoretical and long on black and white explanations,” a pleasant shift from Ms. Yellen.  The press session took less time, and that too was welcome.  After a slightly lower open we did the Fed drift higher until the 2:00 PM increase and we rallied to 2740 on the S&P 500 before selling off again all the way back to 2710 before another rally to the plus side and finally a decline to close 2711-5.01 (.18%).  DJIA closed -44.96 (.18%), NASDAQ-19.02 (.28%), and the Russell +8.90 (.57%).  The shift from yesterday to today was the market internals.  Both NYSE and NASDAQ were positive with NYSE 1.5:1 volume and 4:3 A/D.  NASDAQ was similar with 5:4 and also 4:3.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, GIS started the day with a slight beat on earnings and inline revenues but a poor guidance number with supply chain costs the problem.  The stock broke massive support at $50 and fell 4.98 (9.8%) to $45.51 and down from $60 since early February.  GES had numbers and after closing 15.52 +.54, we have traded to 17.28 +2.24 for a gain of 13%.  Also, GERN, who reported 5 days ago and has been upgraded has been on a tear moving from $2.50 to close today $4.99 +.80 or 19%.

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed to slightly higher today with CELG +.33, BIIB-2.39, AMGN-.28, REGN +1.32, ICPT +.44, INCY +1.78, CLVS +1.23, GILD -.43, TEVA -.09, PRGO +1.58, MYL +.76, ONCE +2.62 (4.2%)and IBB +.45.  We bought a small position in GILD 4/77.50 calls @ $1.76 and they closed $1.

 

RETAIL, was mixed to higher with M -.21, JWN-1.35, KSS-.42, KORS +.62, SHLD +.03, JCP +.01, WMT +.50, HD +1.28, TJX +1.04, TGT -1.35, DKS -.07, and XRT +.71.

 

FAANG, this group was mostly with GOOGL-.69, AMZN-5.36, FB +1.3549, AAPL -2.03, 3.58, NFLX-.51, TSLA +6.46, NVDA -.60, BA +.01, BIDU-3.57, BABA-3.59, IBM  +.17, and XLE -.41.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed with GS -.84, JPM +.29, BAC -.06, C +.48, PNC +.04, AIG +.21 and XLF unchanged. We bought back the 4/29 calls @ .58 Thursday and they closed today at $ .48.

 

OIL, $65.17 +1.63, continued to run and break out of the $60-64 range today ran right up to $65.17 and held near the highs. Last night we discussed that if the current pattern holds we could see it run to the upside we could see a test $65-66. We have continue to $65.62 +.45. All of the stocks I watch were higher with CVX +2.80, APC +2.92, COP +2.34, BP +1.11, PSX +1.05, MPC +1.75, MRO +1.04 (6.8%), RIG +.71 (7.33%), OAS +.59 (7.38%), OXY +2.13, XOM +2.30, HES +2.30 and XLE +1.7592.8%).

 

METALS, the gold was a mostly a touch higher until the Fed news came out and it started to move higher until it broke a downtrend line we’ve pointed out and after testing $1,310 again we rallied to close $1,321.50 + 10 and is trading $1,332 +10.70 tonight.

Copper fell all the way back to test $3.02 turned up to close $3.0585 + .0205 and we are trading up another $ .02.

 

BITCOIN closed $8910 -110 and while it has tried to recover, it hasn’t really made any headway. It is trading still in what I would call a “bear flag” and it needs to get through the closes about $150 from here. If it can’t get through it will test $8,000.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 3/20/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 21st

 

Today’s action was really neither here nor there with FB again a major feature trading as low as $161.95 but closing $168.15 -4.41 (2.56%) or almost 19% for the week.  The fallout will continue and of course there will be a bounce (already came of 161 to 169) but I probably won’t trade it for a while.  Stocks were higher with DJIA+116.36 (.47%), NASDAQ +20.06 (.27%), S&P500 +4.02 (.15%), and the Russell -.16 and the DJ Transports +47.74 (.04%).  Market internals were clearly nothing to write home about with both NYSE and NASDAQ both negative, a little more so on NYSE at 3:4 both volume and A/D and NASDAQ 4:5 and 3:4 respectively.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, ORCL had earnings last night and the stock only got worse as the call went on.  They missed just slightly but gave poor guidance and we closed $47.05 -4.90 (9.43%).  FDX reported tonight and was a solid beat and was trading as high as $262 but has fallen off back to 249/50-2.49 (1%).  On the M&A we have CRM buying Mule for cash and while CRM is lower by $4.20, MULE is $42 +8.97 (27%).  TWTR was also swept up in the FB issues and was lower by $3.46 (9.9%).  Another one of my favorites that we have made great money trading, GLYC reported it is having an offering of 4.5million shares and was down yesterday and this morning, but popped back up from $15.73 to trading $17.70 +.93 in the afterhours.

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed to lower again today with CELG +.23, BIIB +1.31, AMGN-.52, REGN-5.22, ALXN-1.81, VRTX +.70, ISRG +3.33, INCY +.74, ABBV +1.59, GILD -.26, TEVA -.24, PRGO-1.44, MYL -.39, ONCE +.34, PBYI -1.50 and IBB +.02.

 

RETAIL, was mixed to higher with M -.37, JWN-.01, KSS +.61, DDS +.18, SHLD-.04, JCP -.04, WMT +.50, HD +1.06, TJX +.45, TGT +1.22, TPR +.97, NKE +1.09, DKS -.22, SIG -1.19, and XRT -.45.

 

FAANG, this group was split with GOOGL -2.27, AMZN +441.57 (2.9%), FB -5.66(3.3%), AAPL unchanged, NFLX +4.17, TSLA -2.86, NVDA +8.40 (3.5%), BA +6.02, BIDU+2.17, BABA +4.27, IBM -1.15 and XLK +.05.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed to higher with GS +.50, JPM +.20, BAC +.02, C +.38, PNC -.58, AIG +1.18 and XLF +.10. We bought back the 4/29 calls @ .58 Thursday and they closed today at $ .51.

 

OIL, $63.45 +1.41, continues to test the range between $60-64 and today ran right up to $63.98 and held near the highs.  If the current pattern holds we should see it run out of steam right here.  If it breaks to the upside we could see a test $65-66. All but XOM were higher and XOM was only lower by >10, but CVX +.61, APC +1.46, COP +1.13, BP +.35, PSX +.70, MPC +2.25, MRO +.48, RIG +.05, OAS +.13, OXY +.26, HES +1.43 and XLE +.66 (1%).

 

METALS, the gold was a disappointment today, unable to move through 1,320 and falling back to test $1,306 again and rallying just slightly to close $1,311.90 -5.90.  There are several daily highs between here and $1,330 that have to be topped before any move higher.  If we don’t hold $1,303 a test of $1,290.  Copper couldn’t break through $3.20 last week and fell all the way back to test $3.05-3.06 and broke to close $3.0380 -.0440.  Like the Gold, we are were locked into a range here between $3.04 -$3.10 and the next stop could be another test of $2.96.

 

BITCOIN closed $9020 +575 and while it has tried to recover, it hasn’t really made any headway. It is trading into what I would call a “bear flag” and it needs to get through the closes +.17 and BLOK +.11 and have broken to the downside after trying to get back through overhead resistance.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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.

After the close 3/19/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Are FB Numbers Real ??

 

FOR TRADING March 20th

 

Today’s action was driven by FB and the other FAANG stocks.  My take on FB is below, but there was no question that it cast a pall over the group, and the group (social media) over the markets.  DJIA -335.60 (1.35%), NASDAQ-137.75(1.84), S&P500 -39.09 (1.42%), Russell-15.49 (.98%), and DJ Transports -37.25 (.003%).  Market internals didn’t really give any hope that it was a narrow decline with NYSE volume 7:1 and A/D 4:1 down.  NASDAQ was a little better but not great at 9:2 and 3:1 respectively.  It was not a good day. On top of the actual FB news, the inference that we may see a wave of regulation as a result is a problem.  The EU has already started to regulate these companies and I would doubt our do-nothing congress will follow suit even if only to make it look like they are working for us.  We had a small loss on a trade of SPY calls, but at 4:01pm we got news on BB (we own the 4/12.50 calls@ $1.02) that they are in a joint venture with MSFT. BB had closed 12.72 -.23 and is now trading $13.36 +63 (5%).

 

 SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, FB saw loads of bad news from Friday and through the weekend and opened down $8.12 (4.3%).  I have always had a problem with this company personally since I signed up, and then thought I was just changing my email address and ended up with multiple accounts.  But, it doesn’t end with my double count, FB then entices me to open the site by prompting me with “notifications” that are dishonest.  I realize that if I am part of a group that I receive info I’ve asked for, but I do object to the messages that I “might have missed” or since I haven’t signed on lately, or any of the other notifications that prompt me to “view on Facebook.”  These are not daily users by choice and clearly not a real number if you drill down.  I’m not saying that everyone has multiple account like mine, but with the numbers quoted by the company at earnings time, are questionable.  They have already stated that the ad-view numbers “were” inflated in the past. I just think it bears looking into, and now that the government is asking questions, we all know they will scapegoat the company with all sorts of “investigations,”  valid or not.  Can’t be good.

 

BIO/PHARMA, a group that has been challenged lower across the board.  My list of 24 companies saw only one (ARNA) was higher and that one had news just after the close on a positive result on their study for a new drug for ulcerative colitis.  It is trading in the after-hours at $41 +10.10 after trading as high as $50.  Before the news today the stock was down from $41 to $30 in the last week.  The biggest losers were BIIB-9.25(3.2%), INCY-3.76(4.2%), CLVS-1.97(3.3%), GILD -2.14(2.7%), and IBB -2.07(1.85%).

 

RETAIL, was one of the “least bad” groups today with M+.45, JWN +.04, KSS+.42, DDS-.13, SHLD-.02, JCP-.07, WMT-1.72, TJX-.02, TGT-.65DKS-.69, and XRT-.34.

 

FAANG, this group was the focus of all that was bad today with GOOGL-32.42 (2.86%), AMZN-24.18(1.54%), FB -12.53(6.77%), AAPL-2.38(1.34%), NFLX-4.34(1.36), TSLA-7.10(2.21%), NVDA-8.65(3.45%), BIDU-8.90(3.4%), BABA-5.48(2.74%), IBM -2.46(1.54 and XLK-1.38(1.98%).  The only name that was up, but not really FAANG was BA+1.53 but still down 30 in the past week.

 

FINANCIALS, were also lower but not drastically with GS-5.07, JPM-.73, BAC-.14, C-.59, PNC-.64 AIG +.15 and XLF -.21.  We bought back the 4/29 calls @ .58 Thursday and they closed today at $ .50.

 

OIL, $62.13-.28, continues to test intraday lows in the range of $60-64 and after a test of $61.45 today rallied back to close only slightly lower.  It was an inside day, but it still looks like are in this holding pattern. Unfortunately the stocks were all lower with CVX-1.51, APC-1.13, COP-1.36, BP-.64, PSX-1.39, MPC-.47, MRO-.27, RIG-.24, OAS-.34, OXY--.80, XOM-.97, HES-2.02(4.12%), and XLE-1.01.

 

METALS, the gold was a disappointment last week, unable to move through 1,330 and falling back to test $1,310 again (1307.40) before rallying again to close $1,317.80 +$5.50.  There are several daily highs between here and $1,330 that have to be topped before any move higher.  Copper couldn’t break through $3.20 and fell all the way back to test $3.05-3.06. Like the Gold, we are locked into a range here between $3.06 -$3.20.

 

BITCOIN closed $8,445-1.40 and while it has tried to recover, it hasn’t really made any headway. It is trading into what I would call a “bear flag” and may break to test the February lows around $6,000.  The two ETFs are BLCN -.25 and BLOK-.20 and have broken to the downside after trying to get back through overhead resistance.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 3/15/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 16th

 

Today’s action was a carbon copy (for those of you who remember the meaning of that term) of the action all week.  Up at the open, sliding back lower, a rally, and finally some quiet action into the close.  The difference today was that while the DJIA remained up on the day, everything else was lower.  Market internals were poor with NYSE volume 2:1 down and A/D 9:5 lower.  Over on the NASDAQ we were 1.5:1 and 4:3 negative.  The closes were DJIA +115.54 (.475), NASDAQ -15.07 (.20), S&P500 -2.15 (.08%) and the RUSSELL -7.69(.49%).  You can credit the gains in the DJIA on UNH (28), MCD (23), GS (15) and CAT (14) Dow points and 20 of the 30 stocks higher.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had a disappointing numbers and failures of drug trials to dominate the early morning as well as the late afternoon.  Bright and early we had JILL missed and disappointed on their eCommerce business and opened $5.18 -2.27 and never recovered, closing $4.82 -2.63 (35.3%).  SLDB had a study placed on “clinical hold” by the FDA and opened 10.61 -$15.70 and closed $9.32 -16.99 (64>6%). Another one I’ve mentioned here, with no meaningful news to drive it from $5 to $25, except the news that it had been halted for volatility.  There was little news to digest  and has come back to close today at $14.10 -3.86 (20%) with only the news 2 days ago of the appointment of a Chief Science Officer.  Last, as mentioned here yesterday, RKDA has developed a strain of wheat that has some dramatic improvements and was up 311% yesterday and finally had a bit of a blow-off, and after a 5 day run from $6 to $66, it closed $42.49 -5.50 (11.4%).  In the Crypto space one of the leaders, OSTK disappointed and after falling from $63 4 days ago it traded to $41.50 - $5.  And this one seems to have a real stake and business in the Crypto-currency game as well as a presences in eCommerce.

 

BIO/PHARMA, a group that has been challenged was mostly lower today with CELG-1.70, BIIB +.98, REGN-7.42, ALXN +5.18 on news of a positive trial result was up as much as $15 before settling for a 4.7% move.  IBB was -1.11 (.98%).

 

RETAIL, as noted above (JILL) had a solid miss and WMT had news of a whistle-blower bringing into question the last quarter’s performance, the group was soft all day.  Other losers were M-.42, JWN-.56, KSS-.47, DDS-1.35, SHLD-.10(4.1%), JCP-.01, WMT-.86, TJX-.54, TGT +.01, DKS +.35, SIG-.37 and XRT -.28.

 

FAANG, this group was mixed with GOOGL +1.72, AMZN-4.00, FB-.01, AAPL +.56, NFLX +.35, TSLA-1.65, NVDA +1.19, BA-.10, BIDU +3.66, BABA +7.23, IBM +1.59, and XLK +.04.

 

FINANCIALS, were also mixed with GS +2.87, JPM +.38, BAC +.02, PNC-.22, AIG-.22 and XLF +.01.  We bought back the 4/29 calls @ .58 today and they closed today at $ .57.

 

OIL, $61.19 + .25, after it tested $60 again we rallied and managed another positive day.  We are trading + .07 tonight and we are still in the range between $60 - 64. The stocks were mixed with CVX +.52, APC-.99, COP +.07, BP +.19, PSX +.25, MPC-.73, MRO +.04, RIG-.24, OAS-.15, OXY-.43, XOM +.97, HES +.35 and XLE -.35.

 

METALS, the gold was a disappointment today, unable to move through 1,330 and falling back to close – 7.80.  There are several daily lows 1,312-1,315 and they held and we got back into the calls near the lows Monday @ $1.32 and today they closed $1.09.  The gold is trading slightly lower tonight in a narrow range, but we are locked into $1,310-1,330. Copper couldn’t break through $3.20 and fell all the way back to 3.1075 closing $3.1275 today -.032.  Like the Gold, we are locked into a range here between $3.06 -$3.20.

 

BITCOIN closed $8290 + 20 and has continued to falter, moving back to the questionable support between 7750 and 8500.  It is trading $8030 -270 tonight and the two ETFs are BLCN + .08 and BLOK-.03 and have broken to the downside after trying to get back through overhead resistance.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 3/14/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Retail Disappointment

 

FOR TRADING March 15th

 

Today’s action was higher at the open with a gain of about 130 on the DJIA, but it didn’t last long and we went negative and tried to rally only to fail again and by noon we were 300 lower on the day.  We rallied all the way back to -100 and just couldn’t hold on.  We closed with DJIA -248.91(1%), NASDAQ-14.20(.19, S&P500 -15.83(.57%) the Russell -7.74(.49%), and DJ Transports the biggest loser -184.60-1.7%).  Internals were negative with the NYSE volume 2:1 down and the A/D 4:3 while the NASDAQ was only slightly better at 11:9 and 3:2 respectively.  All that said, the DJIA was dragged lower by BA (59), GS (29), AAPL (11) and UNH (11).  There were only 4 of the 30 DJIA stocks higher at the close, and that would equate to A/D of 6.5:1 down.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had a disappointing Retail Sales number and with the notable exception of DKS, with a solid report driving it up they were all lower.  One name I want to point out that I have been talking about as a short since late 2015 at $134 is SIG.  This company is a dog on many levels from the fact that they are a mall-based retailer with more consumer complaints than any other U.S. company (FTC and BBB) as well as questionable accounting and reporting procedures.  They reported a miss on basically all metrics including same store sales (-5%), and the miss was in their biggest quarter of the year.  Premarket the shares were only slightly lower, but the more the earnings and news was disclosed and digested the worse it got.  The final tally was $38.22 -9.69 (-20.2%) and it has continued in late trading to $37.47 -10.44.  On the good news side, Arcadia Biosciences, RKDA, reported that it has developed wheat varieties that have a high level of amylose (94%), which can help in gastrointestinal health and obesity-related health conditions.  The stock was reverse split 1:20 on January 24th and closed the day at $47.99 +36.32 (311%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, a group that has been challenged was mixed again today with CELG +.05, BIIB +2.48, AMGN +.82, REGN +3.41, ALXN +1.60, VRTX-.58, INCY -2.37, ABBV-1.05, GILD -.62, TEVA -.75, PRGO-.73, MYL-.33, QURE -2.81(11%), ONCE +1.90 and IBB -.15.

 

RETAIL, as noted above not a great news day for retail, but after the close WSM had earnings that beat on topline, revenues and guidance and traded up $4.70 before coming back to $56.50 +2.80 (5%).  The rest of the group was lower with M-.24, JWN-.85, KSS-1.86, DDS -1.22, KORS-1.18, SHLD +.15, JCP-.24 (7.3%), WMT-.64, HD-.66, TJX-.58, TGT-.36, DKS +1.69, and XRT -.26.

 

FAANG, this group was mixed with GOOGL +9.30, AMZN +5.02, FB +2.11, AAPL-1.53, NFLX +5.77, NVDA +.58, TSLA-14.59 (on production delays),  BA-8.52, BIDU +1.65, BABA +4.26, IBM-1.20, and XLK-.16.

 

FINANCIALS, were also unanimously lower with GS-4.10, JPM -1.05, BAC -.19, C -1.41, PNC -2.40, AIG -.69, and XLF -.24. We sold the 4/29 calls @1.12 Monday and they closed today at $ .60, and I’m watching them again.

 

OIL, $60.96 +25, after it tested $60 again we rallied and managed another positive day.  We are trading + .01 tonight and we are still in the range between $60 - 64. The stocks were mixed with CVX -1.33, APC +.37, COP unch., BP -.69, PSX -.34, MPC +.12, MRO +.05, RIG -.01, OAS +.06, OXY-.16, XOM-.89, HES +.17 and XLE -.42.

 

METALS, the gold was in a narrow range today between $1,322-1,330 before closing $1,325.60 -1.50.  There are several daily lows 1,312-1,315 and they held and we got back into the calls near the lows Monday @ $1.32 and today they closed $1.48.  The gold is trading slightly lower tonight in a narrow range, but we are locked into $1,310-1,330. Copper has tested $3.10 and rallied today to 3.19 before closing $3.1580 +.0205 and is lower tonight at $3.1475 -.0110.  Like the Gold, we are locked into a range here between $3.06 -$3.20.

 

BITCOIN, $8,270 -850 and has continued to falter, moving back to the questionable support between 7750 and 8500.  It is trading $8150 -120 tonight and the two ETFs are BLCN -.12 and BLOK-.42 and have broken to the downside after trying to get back through overhead resistance.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 3/13/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Digging out, Again !!

 

FOR TRADING March 14th

 

Today’s action was driven by carryover from last week’s performance and a lack of bad news.  We were up 200 early and even the Tillman firing didn’t appear to hurt, right up until it did, and we rolled over and went –around 11:30.  We tried to rally and could only make it to unchanged and by 3:00 we were making new lows on the day.  We had bought SPY puts as we were testing unchanged and by 3:45 we were selling half on the 100% Up Rule.  We closed nearer the lows with DJIA -171.58 (.68%), NASDAQ -77.31(1.02%), S&P500 -17.71 (.64%), and the RUSSELL -9 (.56%).  Market internals were negative with NYSE volume 2:1 and A/D 3:2 negative and NASDAQ 7:5 and 3:2 respectively.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had an early disaster in the cloud computing sector of tech with the cancellation of the SILC (Silicom,Ltd.) order for their “cloud Infrastructure architecture.  It was a major piece of their business and the stock opened about unchanged at $58.75 and then fell slowly but continuously until it hit the $47 range and then accelerated again to trade as low as $39.25 and close $40.66 -17.90 (30%).  But it wasn’t quite over and the company put out a press release at 4:06pm and the stock went to $28.20 and is currently trading $34.10 –another 6.  Not a good day.  It wasn’t bad for everyone, PTI, a $4.11 biopharma received a “BTD” or Breakthrough Therapy Designation for a Cystic Fibrosis treatment and closed $6.38 +2.24 (54%) after trading as high as 7.39.

 

BIO/PHARMA, a group that has been challenged was mixed again today with CELG -.83, BIIB +2.77, AMGN+.39, REGN -6.80, ALXN-6 (4.72%), VRTZ -2.17, VRX +.51 )3.2%), ISRG +1.05, SRPT +.73, ABBV +1.45, GILD +.91, TEVA -.18, PRGO +.37, MYL -.75, PBYI -6.45 (8.12%) and IBB -.81.

 

RETAIL, was mostly higher with M +.99, JWN+.48, KSS +1.69, DDS -.71, KORS +.87, SHLD +.11 (4.5%), JCP +.01, WMT +.04, HD -1.37, TGT +.71, TJX +.39 DKS +.32 and XRT -.11.

 

FAANG, this group was just outright ugly.  GOOGL -29.81, AMZN-15.99, FB-3.91, AAPL-2.37 (after a new high), NFLX -7.20, TSLA -4.96, NVDA -1.57, BA -6.09, BIDU-8.30, BABA-6.12, IBM-2.26, and XLK-1.17(1.8%).

 

FINANCIALS, were also unanimously lower with GS -5.78, JPM-1.61, BAC -.57, C -1.41, PNC -1.77, AIG-.67 and XLF -.36.We sold the 4/29 calls @1.12 yesterday and they closed today at $ .79, and I’m watching them again.

 

OIL, $60.71 -.65, after it tested resistance just above $62 we sold off and is now setup to test $60 again. We are trading + .10 tonight and we are still in the range between $60 - 64. The stocks were all lower with CVX -.33, APC-.18, COP-.89, BP-.29, PSX-.44, MPC -.03, MRO-.29, RIG -.11, OAS unch, OXY +.31, XOM-.83, HES -.25 and XLE -.62.

 

METALS, the gold tested $1,315 again and bounced back and closed +6.30.  There are several daily lows 1,312-1,315 and they held and we got back into the calls near the lows yesterday @ $1.32 and today they closed $1.57.  The gold is trading slightly higher tonight in a narrow range, but we are locked into $1,310-1,330. Copper also tested support at $3.10 and closed $3.1380 +.014. It feels to me as if we have to test $3.07-3.08 before moving higher.

 

BITCOIN, $9120 +230 and was higher all day but in a smaller range of only $650 vs. 1200 yesterday.  We are trading 9170 +50 tonight.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 3/12/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Waiting for the Snow, Again !!

 

FOR TRADING March 13th

 

Today’s action was driven by carryover from last week’s performance and a lack of bad news.  We were up 120 or so before the 10 year notes started to move a little lower (yield +) and we worked our way down to -130 or so by 1:00PM.  After that we had a quiet, narrow range closing near the lows of the day.  While the market internals were favorable with NYSE volume 4:3 and A/D 8:7 and NASDAQ 7:4 and 3:2 respectively, the market was dominated by BA, CAT, HD, MMM, UHN, and UTX were actually down over 160 Dow points.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had a couple of disasters in the Bio/pharma area with a failure of a Cystic Fibrosis drug at ATHN that took the stock to $ .41 -2.23 (85%) at the open and closed $ .51 -2.13 (81%), PTLA disclosed some updated results for a clinical trial and while the stock was as low as $33.26 -5.17 (13.6%) early, it closed - .40.  There was plenty of news about the succession plans at GS, CEO changes at DWDP, and talks about INTC / AVGO / QCOM drama, but to no avail.  OCLR is being bought by Lumentum for $1.8 Billion and was $10.01 +2.16 (27.5%), and QD reported good numbers and its CEO relinquished his salary (?) and was as high as $17.80 before closing at $16.51 +.66 (4.16%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, a group that has been challenged was mixed to higher with CELG - .27, BIIB -6.20, AMGN -1.80, REGN +2.85, ALXN +1.40, VRTX +.87, ICPT +2.93, SRPT + 4.74 (6.3%), ABBV -1.09, GILD +.27, TEVA +.29, PRGO+1.19, MYL +.27 ONCE +1.87 and IBB +.24.

 

RETAIL, was lower with M -.12, JWN -.14, KSS+.10, DDS -1.82, KORS +.01, SHLD -.04, JCP -.07, WMT -.55, HD -2.55, TJX -.67, TGT +.04 and XRT -.15

 

FAANG, this group was higher all day with 2 notable exceptions, NFLX -10.39 on a downgrade and short seller Andrew Left, and BA -9.32.  The rest were GOOGL +4.16, AMZN +21.11, FB -.58, AAPL +1.91(new high), TSLA +17.78 (5.4%), NVDA +5.36, BIDU +2.44, BABA +1.91 IBM +1.19, and XLK +.22.

 

FINANCIALS, bounced around and closed mixed with GS +3.03, JPM -.35, BAC +.13, C -.07, PNC -.19, AIG +.24 and XLF -.10.We bought the 4/29 calls @.71 and they were sold today at $1.12.

 

OIL, $61.36 -.68, after it tested resistance just above $62 we sold off and is now setup to test $60 again. We are trading -.14 tonight and we are still in the range between $60 - 64. The stocks were mixed with CVX -.43, APC +.95, COP-.32, BP +.19, PSX -.69, MPC -.95, MRO -.13, RIG +.29 (3%), OAS -.12, OXY +.22, XOM +.62, HES +.19 and XLE -.02.

 

METALS, the gold was lower, trying $1,315 again and fell back and closed -3.20.  There are several daily lows 1,312-1,315 and they held and we got back into the calls near the lows of the day @ $1.32 and they closed $1.51.  The gold is trading slightly higher tonight in a narrow range. Copper also tested support at $3.11 and closed $3.1140 -.012. It feels to me as if we have to test $3.07-3.08 before moving higher.

 

BITCOIN, $8890-285 and was higher all day and tried $10,000 but fell to close near the lows.  It is higher tonight at 9090 +200.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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MIDDAY 3/9/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 9th

 

 

 

I will be traveling and I don’t expect to put out a Daily Note tonight..

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 3/7/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Not as bad as Expected

 

FOR TRADING March 8th

 

Today’s action was driven by the Gary Cohn resignation last night.  As discussed here we were looking for a very “unpleasant” day based on the drop in the futures, but they actually recovered about a third of the loss before the open.  We opened and were down about 250 (DJIA) and rallied only to fall back to new lows around lunchtime.  After 1:30 we started to build some upside momentum led by the NASDAQ and Russell, and by the close we were DJIA -82.76 (.33%), NASDAQ +24.64(.33%), S&P500 – 1.32 (.05%) and the Russell +12.33 (.79%) and the Transports -26.28 (.02%). The internals were split with NYSE volume 4:3 and A/D 1.1:1 both negative while at NASDAQ it was 5:3 and 2:1 positive.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had earnings more retail earnings from ANF with a beat and closing + 2.54 (11.9%), KR was lower in anticipation of its number tomorrow, while DLTR got pounded after missing revenues and same store sales and issued poor guidance.  It closed -15.11 (14.8%). Another discounter, ROST followed last night’s poor report and was -5.11 (6.35%).  After 3 days of no news, INNT, was halted again today for volatility by NASDAQ and although up from $5.26 last week to close 13 -1.50 (10.3%) after trading as high as $21.00 on no news.  The only news was that they are going to present at the Cowen Healthcare Conference next week on progress in Celiac and NASH.

 

BIO/PHARMA, a group that has been challenged was mixed to higher with CELG +1.05,  BIIB -1.44, AMGN -2.82, ALXN +.93, VRTX +.25, INCY +.61, SRPT +2.93 (4.1%), GILD +.63, TEVA -.10, PRGO +.43, MYL -.74, ONCE +.79 PBYI +3.40 (4.46%) and IBB +.68.

 

RETAIL, was lower with the above mentioned ANF, with M -.44, JWN -1.32, KSS -1.64, SHLD -.07(2.85%), JCP -.16(4.26%), WMT -1.36, HD -2.47, GPS -1.31, TJX -1.76, TGT -.42, TPR -.51, DKS -.70- SIG+.69 and XRT -.61.

 

FAANG, this group was higher all day with GOOGL +14, AMZN +7.11, FB +3.47, AAPL -1.73, NFLX -4.42 on a downgrade, TSLA +3.20, NVDA -.86, BA -2.31but closer to the highs, BIDU-1.65, BABA +1.23, IBM +2.57 and XLK +.36.

 

 

FINANCIALS, bounced around but ultimately closed slightly lower with GS -1.59, JPM -.56, BAC +.05, C-.15, PNC +.30 and XLF -.13.We bought the 4/29 calls @.71 and they closed .67.

 

OIL, $61.15 – 1.45, after it tested resistance just below 63.40 we sold off and is now setup to test $60. We are trading -+.16 and we are still in the range between $60 - 64. The stocks were mostly lower with CVX +.28, APC-1.09, COP +.01, BP-.28, PSX +.38, MPC +.29, MRO-.26, RIG -.19, OAS-.39 (4.5%), OXY -.26, XOM-1.93, HES-2.00, and XLF -.51.

 

 

METALS, the gold was higher, trying $1,342 again and fell back and closed -7.60.  There are several daily lows 1,316-1,323and if they hold we’ll go back into the calls.  If not we will have to see if we hold $1,305-1310. Copper also tested support at $3.12 and closed $3.1360 -.023.  It feels to me as if we have to test $3.07-3.08 before moving higher.

 

BITCOIN, $9,895 -865 and was lower all day in a $1500 range and testing $9,500.  I said I thought it would work higher if it either tested $9,800 on the lows or closed over $11,685.  We turned down and did some damage and I think we bounce here and see if the selling pushes it lower to $9,000.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 3/6/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

A Rollercoaster of a Day

Tomorrow Will Not be Pleasant !!

 

FOR TRADING March 7th

 

Today’s action was driven in both directions from pre-open right through the close as it was influenced by someone coming out with a statement that was about the proposed tariffs, positive or negative we moved 100 DJIA points in the appropriate direction.  The velocity was muted after yesterday’s 500 point range, but the winners were clearly the names that have nothing to do with international trade.  We were +9.36 (.04%) in the DJIA, +41.31 on the NASDAQ (.56%), S&P500 + 7.18 (.26%) and the Russell the big winner +16.16 (1.05%), and the Transports +87.34 (.83%). Market internals were perfectly in sync with both NYSE and NASDAQ volume 2:1 and A/D 2.5:1.

 

All that was written before the resignation of Gary Cohn and the collapse of the futures.  As of 8:30PM the S&P500 is -32.50 (1.2%), NASDAQ -85 (1.2%), and DJIA -347 (1.4%).  This was not just the Tariff issue, but the total lack of consistent leadership from the President.  It will take some monumental spin to see the upside of this mess.

As of 10:00PM the futures have recovered, but not much with S&P -25, NASDAQ -61, and DJIA still down $312.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had earnings from TGT, and the street was not pleased as the stock fell from $75.16 to 72.25, but after the conference call started the damage only got worse.  After falling as low as 69.94 it closed $71.79 -3.35 (4.5%).  After the close we had URBN which beat top and bottom, fell 10% after a charge for taxes.  After trading $32.67 it finished 35.12 – 1.86.  ROST also beat top and bottom and on comps but had poor guidance it finished -4.94 (6.2%). Another highlight with a noticeable lack of news, INNT, was halted again today for volatility by NASDAQ and although up from $5.26 last week to close 14.16-3.14 (18.1%) after trading as high as $21.00 on no news.  Can’t wait to hear what the news that drove it up 400% in 4 days and back -30%.  MYL was +1.69 (4%) on an upgrade by Morgan Stanley.  BZUN beat and was +11.44 (31%).  ADSK reported a smaller than expected loss and rallied to new all-time highs at 133.74 before closing 129.50 +9.63 (8%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, was lower with the aforementioned MYL.  CELG -1.44, BIIB -3.20, AMGN +.17, VRTX -4.44 (2.56%), INCY -2.47, GILD -.02, TEVA-.35, PRGO-.39, ONCE -.10, and IBB-1.73 (1.56%).

 

RETAIL, was lower most of the day and as mentioned above with URBN and ROST, and TGT.  M was -.40, JWN -.62, KSS-.09, DDS +2.67 (3.2%), SHLD- .09 (3.5%), JCP -.13, WMT -2.23, HD -2.84, TJX +.06, TPR +.22, DKS +.55, SIG -1.50, and XRT +.64.

 

FAANG, this group was mostly lower tonight from the Cohn news with GOOGL -12.36, AMZN -10.61, FB -3.14, AAPL -2.88, NFLX +2.00, TSLA -10.35, NVDA +1.55, BA -13.74, BIDU -.63, BABA +.90, IBM -3.00, and XLK -1.14.

 

 

FINANCIALS, bounced around but ultimately moved higher but fell in aftermarket trading with GS -1.92, JPM -1.96, BAC -.69, C -1.42, PNC -3.71, and XLF -.35.We sold the XLF 3/28.50 calls and bought the 4/29 calls @.71 and they closed .70.

 

OIL, $62.60+ .03, after it tested resistance just below 63.40 we sold off but managed a small gain.  We are trading 62.12 -.48 and are in the middle of the range between $60 - 64. The stocks were mostly lower with CVX -1.73, APC -2.35, COP -1.57, BP +.01, PSX +.87, MPC +.24, MRO -.29, RIG -.19, OAS -.09, OXY -.26, XOM -.97, HES -.44, and XLE -.86.

 

 

METALS, the gold was higher overnight and then really moved higher mid-morning. We sold the GLD 3/125 calls @ $1.67 and $2.08 for big gains and it is slightly higher tonight, but into resistance between $1,343-1,350.  We will buy another pullback, or a consolidation.  Copper also tested support at $3.10 and moved higher to close $3.15.90 +.031.  It feels to me as if we have to test $3.07-3.08 before moving higher.

 

BITCOIN, $10,760 -835 and was lower all day touching $10,600.  I said I thought it would work higher if it either tested $9,800 on the lows or closed over $11,685.  We turned down and did some damage and I think we shown hold $10,000-$10,500 before it can work higher.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 3/5/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

$500 DJIA Swing !!

 

FOR TRADING March 6th

 

Today’s action was down hard with the futures overnight and then after the opening deluge we turned higher and never looked back.  At the end of the day we were up 3/4s on the range with DJIA +336.70 (1.37%), NASDAQ +72.84 (1%), S&P500 +29.69 (1.1%), the Russell +12.88 (.84%) and the DJ Transports bringing up the rear with a meager gain of 15.54 (.01%) although 160 (1.5%) from the lows.  The internals were strong with NYSE volume 4.9:1 and A/D 2.5:1 and NASDAQ 3:1 and 2.2:1 respectively.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had earnings from FRPT with a disappointing result and the stock closing +.33 (1.6%) then trading as low as $17.50 with the last $17.95-2.65 (12.9%).  There was also some fireworks in the Biotech side with DERM reporting an acne drug failure that took it to $8.59-16.57 (66%), and CLSD produced an eye disease treatment and while the stock was already $7.82 + 1.46 since last Thursday it gapped up and ran as high as $13.25 before closing $10.33 +2.51or 32%.  Another highlight with a noticeable lack of news, INNT, was halted twice on Friday and twice today for volatility by NASDAQ and although up from $5.26 last week to close 17.30 +7.82 (82.5%) after trading as high as $21.00 no news.  Can’t wait to hear what the news that drove it up 400% in 4 days.  I will note that the stock was reverse split 1:10 on 1/31 and therefore decreased the outstanding from 17.7 million to 1.8 million and average daily volume was 73,000 /day.  Today it traded 4.4 million or just 2.5 times the outstanding.  You usually have to put “Blockchain” into your name to get that kind of move.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was higher with the market with CELG +.04, BIIB -.01, AMGN +5.05 (2.7%), REGN+3.44, ALXN+1.58, VRTX +3.44, ICPT +1.21, INCY +4.36 (5%), SRPT +3.50 (5.15%), ABBV +.62, GILD -.77, TEVA +.16, PRGO -.18, MYL +.61, ONCE -2.06, PBYI +5.25 (7.4%) and IBB +1.15 (1.05%).

 

RETAIL, was mixed to with the JWN coming after the close with a statement that a bid of $50 from the founders was inadequate and the stock, up from Friday’s low of $47.50 to $53.18 today headed back in the other direction to a low of $48.20 with a last of 49.60.  Frankly, I’m surprised at the move lower since the $50 bid would seem like a floor under the stock if you think there will eventually be a deal. M was +.16, KSS -.41, DDS -3.65 (4.1%), KORS +.04, SHLD -.18(6.6%), JCP +.08, WMT+1.20, HD +3.28, TJX -.85, TGT +.30, DKS -.16, and XRT +.26.  THERE ARE SEVERAL EARNINGS DUE IN THIS GROUP STARTING TOMORROW WITH ROST & URBN, and more on Wednesday.

 

FAANG, this group was mostly higher with GOOGL +10.15, AMZN +22.15, FB +3.78, AAPL +.39, NFLX +13.75 (4.6%) and a new high and +65% YTD, TSLA -1.52, NVDA-.95, BA +6.84, BIDU +4.29, BABA+2.04, IBM +2.46 and XLK +.56.

 

 

FINANCIALS, bounced around but ultimately moved higher with GS +5.00, JPM +1.56, BAC +.46, C +1.28, PNC +1.28 and XLF +.38 (1.34%). We bought the XLF 3/28.50 calls and paid an average of $ .27, and sold the first half on the 100% Up Rule today.  They closed $ .56.

 

OIL, $62.57 +1.32, after it tested my support at $61 it bounced back to close +2% on the day. We are into an area that should prove supportive and last week I said we needed a close over $62.50, and now we have it.  The next stop is $63.44-64. The stocks were all higher with the exception of COP-.07.  CVX was +1.36, APC +1.50, BP +.46, PSX +1.69, MPC +.97, MRO +.29, RIG +.15, OAS +.26 (3%), OXY +.72, XOM +.72, HES +1.76 (3.77%), and XLE +.71 (1.06).

 

 

METALS, the gold was lower today closing $1,320.90 -2.50.  It fell at the end of last week and tested the support just over $1,300. We bought the GLD 3/125 calls when it held the support @ $ .68 and sold half @ $1.36 on the 100% Up Rule the next day.  They closed $1.04 today.  Copper also tested support at $3.10 and moved higher to close $3.12.75 +.003.

 

BITCOIN, $11,595 +545 and was higher all day touching $11750.  I said I thought it would work higher if it either tested $9,800 on the lows or closed over $11,685.  We are close on the close and if we break $11,820 (Feb 20 high) we should have a shot at $13,000-14,000 from the break down in mid -January.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 3/1/2018
 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

March in like a LION ??

 

FOR TRADING March 2ND

 

Today’s action was down hard after the futures were lower overnight and then jumped to up on some so so economic numbers (bad news being good news) but it didn’t last long.  By 12:15 we were negative for the rest of the day after the markets figured out what the president’s tariffs on Steel and Aluminum would mean to the autos and others.  They are also concerned with what it might also do in case he decides there are other markets he wants to disrupt with his naiveté about how world markets actually work.  Even AA (Alcoa) has made the statement that this tariff is counterproductive. The DJIA was -420.22 (low down -588) or 1.68%, NASDAQ -92.45(1.27%), S&P500 -36.16 (1.33%), he Russell -5.06 (.33%) since it is comprised of smaller US companies doing business in the US, and DJ Transports -51.27 (.49%). The market internals were not as bad as the decline with NYSE volume 2:3 down and A/D the same.  Over on the NASDAQ they were 1:2 and 3:4 respectively. Not what you’d expect for down $420.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had earnings from JWN with a disappointing result and the stock falling 2.50 (5%), and KSS -3.34 (5.05%) JWN made no mention of the plan to go private and probably with good reason, they’ve talked about it 3 times in the last 6 months without getting anyone interested to bring the money.  AOBC (formerly Smith & Wesson was a miss of some magnitude and the stock was halted prior to the release and reopened it was $2.52 lower (26.7%) and has traded up slightly to $8.  Sales were 30% lower than expected and the company says likely to stay that way.  AOBC has been cut in half since December’s high of $15.22 and from $30 the year before. In the same group, RGR down from $68 last year trading currently around $42.50 -3 (6%).  PDCO, which we mentioned about 10 days ago on the break from $34 to 29, reported today and it wasn’t pretty, 24.11-7.47 (23.65%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was lower again with VRX (-2.1, 11% yesterday) continued lower by another $1.13 (6.89%) and the rest of the group was mixed with CELG +.35, BIIB -5.99, AMGN-.48, VRTX-.20, CLVS +.36, SRPT +.22, ABBV-1.99, GILD-1.20, TEVA +.18, MYL +.37, ONCE +3.01(5.27%), PBYI -5.35 on a miss (8.19%), and IBB -.83.

 

RETAIL, was mixed to with the JWN, and KSS misses mentioned above and M -.16, DDS +.66, SHLD +.05, JCP -.38 (8.78%), WMT -.91, LB-6.53 (13.24%), TJX +.16, TGT-1.21, TPR-.64 and XRT -.52.

 

FAANG, this group was the WORST will all lower from GOOGL-.30.92, AMZN-16.60, FB-2.10, AAPL-2.92, NFLX-.13, TSLA-11.16, NVDA-9.30, BA-11.66, BIDU-3.08, BABA-3.84, IBM-2.02, and XLK -1.11(1.63%).

 

 

FINANCIALS, bounced around but ultimately moved lower with the 10yr Notes.  GS-5.43, JPM-2.00, BAC-.46, C-1.78, PNC-1.67 and XLF-.50(1.73%). We bought the XLF 3/29 calls again and paid an average of $ .29, and are close to getting stopped out on 50% Down Rule.

 

OIL, $60.99-.65, after stalling just over $64 earlier this week, the oil sold off to close lower. Today it tested my support between $60 -$61 and bounced back a bit. We are into an area that should prove supportive but we will need a close over $62.50.  The stocks were mixed even with the Oil down with CVX +.12, APC +.08, COP-.43, BP+.08, PSX +.50, MPC +.73, MRO +.01, RIG +.24, OAS +.18, OXY +.03, XOM-.46, HES +.25 and XLE -.07.

 

 

METALS, the gold was lower today closing $1,305.20 -12.70 and we fell right back to the area of support around $1,300.   We bought the GLD 3/125 calls when it held the support.   We are trading $1,317.80 now +12.50.  The options, bought @ $ .68 closed @ $1.06.

 

BITCOIN, $11,025 +330 and was quiet this afternoon and is trading 11,010 -15. It may work higher but in order to start a new bull move higher it will have to either test support @ 9800 or break out over $11,685.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 2/28/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

T.G.  February is over !!

 

FOR TRADING March 1st

 

Today’s action was up a bit in the morning following some economic news that came in weaker than expected and once again, bad news was good news. It didn’t last for long.  We were range bound until about 2:00 when we went negative, had a little failed rally and went negative for the duration and gave back everything from yesterday’s run up.  We finished on the lows with the DJIA -388.83 (1.5%), NASDAQ -57.34 (.78%), S&P500 -30.45, the Russell -24.03 (1.56%) and the Transports -141 (1.35%).  Internals were weak with the NYSE volume 4:1 and A/D 2.5:1 negative.  NASDAQ was only slightly better with vol. 2:1, and A/D 2.5:1.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had earnings from LOW with a miss and they punished the stock in early trading sending it as low as $86.75 -9.36, but after that open it traded up and closed midrange @ $89.59 -6.20 (6.47%).  Also on the earnings miss side was VRX, also gapping lower by $2.25and didn’t make much of a comeback finishing – 2.11 (11.4%).  ACAD who also misses and was lower by 17% and probably influenced by weakness in the group with CELG closing on its way -8.66 (.04%).  After the close we heard from L Brands (LB) which missed and fell 10% -$5.04.  On the upside we had TJX reporting a blowout Q4 and while selling off from its high, finished +5.37 (6.95%).  ETSY also reported good numbers and even though it has moved higher from $16.72 4 weeks ago managed to close +4.24 (20.1%).

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was lower again with the above mentioned CELG -8.15 (8.5%), and ACAD -5.86 (18.8%), AKRX-1.38 (7.4%), BIIB -1.11, AMGN -2.02, ALXN -.89, ICPT -.35, SRPT -1.78, ABBV -1.38, GILD -1.41, TEVA -.52, MYL -.11, ONCE -1.14, LABU -4.98, and IBB -2.10 (1.9%).

 

 

RETAIL, was mixed to stronger today with M +.90, JWN +.10, KSS +1.30, DDS -1.36, KORS -.67, SHLD -.15 (5.84% and still terminal), WMT 1.32, HD -1.88, TGT -.26, DKS +.35, SIG +.35, and XRT+.11.

 

FAANG, this group was lower with GOOGL 11.41, AMZN +4.02, FB _2.36, AAPL +.10, NFLX +1.24, TSLA +6.79, NVDA -3.41, BA -.43, BIDU +2.33, BABA -2.16, IBM -.06, and XLK -.49.

 

 

FINANCIALS, were higher early again but all finished lower with GS -4.03, JPM -1.71, BAC -.09, C -.60, PNC -2.57 and XLF-.41. The XLF calls had a sell stop @ .44.GTC that was triggered for no gain or loss.

 

OIL, $61.64 -1.37, after stalling just over $64 yesterday the oil sold off to close lower. Part of the issue was the government stat. showing a build in both Crude and Gas. We are into an area that should prove supportive near 60.50-61.50.  The stocks were all lower with CVX -1.33, APC -1.43, COP -.53, BP -.52, PSX -1.43, MPC -1.54, MRO -.45, RIG -.46, OAS -.65, OXY -1.40, XOM -1.40, HES -.22 and XLE -1.22.

 

 

METALS, the gold had a quiet and narrow range today closing at $1,317.90 -.80. It is trading -1.8 @ $1,316.10.  Last support is $1,309 to $1,300.  I am looking at GLD calls if we hold $1,305.

 

BITCOIN, $10,695 +20 tested 11,000 and fell back a bit in quiet trading today.  It may work higher but in order to start a new bull move higher it will have to either test support @ 9800 or break out over $11,685.  It is trading down $355 to $10,340tonight.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 2/27/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

FOR TRADING February 28TH

 

Today’s action was up a bit in the morning followed by the start of the chairman of the Fed Powell and the rise in the 10Yr note back over 2.9% and the roller coaster that the market became for the rest of the day.  As I have mentioned here, I don’t care why interest rates go higher (even for the right reason) the market hates the process and sells off the markets.  The DJIA finished -299.24 (1.16%), NASDAQ -91.11 (1.23%), S&P500 -35.32 (1.27%), the Russell -22.86(1.47%) and the DJ Transports -246.23 (1.2%).  The internals were abysmal with NYSE volume 6.85:1 and A/D 3:1 negative while the NASDAQ was only slightly better with 2.5:1 and 2.8:1 respectively.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had earnings from Macys (M) with a beat in earnings, inline revenues and upbeat guidance.  The stock was $30 +2.55 in premarket trade. Closing $28.40 +.95 (3.46%), Dillard (DDS) also beat and was $79.69 +8.78 and continued higher to close 82.91 +11.98 (16.89%),   Fitbit (FIT) holders were not so fortunate with a bigger loss than expected and poor guidance for the year and was $4.80 -.74 early closing 4.86 -68 (12.27%). Last night NTRI dramatically disappointed and the stock was $29.50-10.40 pre-open and closed -8.60 (21.5%). Another early trader was AKRX, the maker of generic drugs which has a takeover from bid from Fresenius, the German drug maker.  It was lower after it was discovered that there might be some FDA issues with prior data.  ARKX was down 32% in the premarket and closed 18.65-11.63 (38%).

 

Also in the news was a bid from CMSCA for the portion of SKY from FOXA, in excess of the DIS bid.  While there was plenty of speculation about what it would mean going forward, all of the stocks (except SKY which doesn’t trade here) we lower with CMCSA $36.66-2.92 (7.38%), FOXA -1.18 (3.04%) and DIS -4.94 (4.5%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, was lower with the market but got an extra hit from CELG -6.84 (7%) in late trading based on the FDA “refusal to file” for a new MS drug.  The rest of the group was ugly with AMGN -2.71, REGN -3.92, ALXN -2.99, VRTX -3.66, ICPT -1.97, ABBV -3.29, CLVS +3.43, GILD -1.28, TEVA -.51, MYL -.67, ONCE -1.60 and IBB -1.02.

 

RETAIL, was stronger today with M +1.25, JWN -1.40, KSS -1.85, DDS +11.82 (16.6%), SHLD -.02, WMT -1.37, HD -3.19, TJX -.55, TGT -1.30, DKS -.73, SIG 1.14, and XRT -.94.

 

FAANG, this group was lower with GOOGL -24.20, AMZN -5.87, FB -3.18, AAPL -.22, NFLX -2.16, TSLA -6.31, BA +2.72, NVDA -.28, BIDU -4.31, BABA -5.19, IBM -2.03, and XLK -.70.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher early with the “gentle” bump up in rates and we sold half of our XLF position using the 100% Up Rule, but as the day wore on they too faltered and finished lower too.  GS -.52, JPM -.99, BAC +.04, C -1.01, PNC -1.50, and XLF -.28. The XLF calls now have a sell stop @ .44.GTC.

 

OIL, $63.01 -.90, after stalling just over $64 again the oil sold off to close lower. We are into an area that should prove difficult and maybe send us back to test $62-61.50.  The stocks were lower with CVX -.45, APC-1.93, COP -.75, BP -70, PSX -.07, MPC -.69, MRO -.32, RIG -.07, OAS +.10, OXY -.52, XOM -1.10, HES -1.31 and .90.

 

 

METALS, the gold tested $1,340 and was turned back to close closer to the lows at $1,318.60 -14.20. It is trading -.90@ $1,317.70.  Last support is $1,309 to $1,300.  I am looking at GLD calls if we hold $1,305.

 

BITCOIN, $10,675 +345 tested 9,300 and bounced and continued slightly higher today.  It may work higher but in order to start a new bull move higher it will have to either test support @ 9800 or break out over $11,685.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 2/26/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

FOR TRADING February 27TH

Today’s action was strong right from the start.  From the gap up at the open and a little sideways action for the first hour or so we worked higher all day.  DJIA was +399.28 (1.58%), NASDAQ +84.07 (1.15%), S&P500 +32.30(1.18%), the Russell +10.15 (.66%) and the Transports +191 (1.8%).  Market internals were supportive as NYSE volume was 2.6:1 and A/D was 2:1.  NASDAQ was even stronger at 3:1 and 4:1 respectively.


SECTORS:

Other names in the news, we had earnings from VERI, who I highlighted on its break a couple of weeks ago when it fell from $23 to $17.75 (23.3%) and today fell another $2.71 (14.7%) after a larger than expected miss.  GE had more bad news on restatement of the last 2 years numbers and fell to another new low @$13.96 but bounced back to close $14.65 +.16 (1.1%).  I’m sure there are many who will call it a “key reversal” but I’m staying away from this one until they drop it from the DJIA.  A recent drop was AA, and we bought it around $9 and it doubled over the next short term.  
BAC was roughly $14 in 9/2013 and was also dropped, and after a couple of months of sideways action it close today @ $32.44.  And, the most recent change (3/2015) was the removal of AT&T (T) to be replaced by AAPL.  T was $32, rallied to $44 and currently $37.  I’ll just wait for the “dropped from the DJIA” effect to buy it.


BIO/PHARMA, was mostly higher with the notable exception of BIIB -2.77.  The rest were CELG +.62, AMGN+1.84, REGN+1.03, ALXN+2.66, VRTX +3.64, SRPT +1.07, ABBV +3.05GILD +.94, MYL +.33, ONCE +4.82 (8.7%) and IBB +.81.

RETAIL, was stronger today with M +.96, JWN -.31, KSS +.93, DDS -.13, KORS +.10, SHLD +.15 (6.1%), WMT +.21, HD +.47, TJX +.89, TGT 1.58 and XRT +.15.

FAANG, this group was higher with new highs galore with GOOGL +16.91, AMZN +24.88, FB +1.73, AAPL +3.55, NFLX +8.27, TSLA +5.95, NVDA +.67, BA +7.14, BIDU +5.51, BABA +.96, IBM +3.12, and XLK +1.07.


FINANCIALS, were higher with GS +4.98, JPM +1.46, BAC +.41, C +.62, PNC +1.74 and XLF +.44.  
The XLF calls we bought back the XLF 3/29 calls @ $ .44 closed  
$ .78.

OIL, $63.55+ $ .36, after testing $63 again we reversed and move higher and tonight we are trading + .10.  We are getting into an area that should prove difficult and maybe send us back to test $62-62.50.  The stocks were mixed with CVX +2.21, APC -.43, COP -.28, BP +.30, PSX +1.09, MPC -.03, MRO-.17, -.17, OAS +.10, OXY -.62, XOM +1.43, HES -.09 and XLE +.41.

METALS, the gold tested $1,342 and was turned back to close closer to the lows at $1,332. It is trading +3.70 @ $1,336.70.  The silver and copper both moved slightly higher with the gold and are also slightly higher tonight with Silver +.06 and Copper basically unchanged.

BITCOIN, $10,330 +410 tested 9,300 and bounced.  Technically, it had made a slightly lower low and rallied to close on the high.  It is -$30 tonight.



Tomorrow is another day.

CAM

 

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After the close 2/22/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING February 23rd

 

Today’s action was interesting in that we tried the downside early afternoon, and while we were lower (50% off the highs) we still closed up 164.70 (.66%) with the NASDAQ slightly lower -8.44 (.11%) and S&P 500 +2.63.  While these were closer to the low than the high, the market internals were positive on the NYSE but soft on NASDAQ.  NYSE volume was 5:4 and A/D 8:7 up, but NASDAQ was 5:4 and 8:5 negative.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had earnings from a couple of names in the optical networking space and both stocks lower on both.  AAOI was -7.04 (20.38%) and ACIA was -4.34 (10.4%).  Both were downgraded and targets reduced.  Wayfair, (W) had a wider than expected loss and closed right near the lows -$21.74 (22.72%) again proving that retail, priced for perfection simply doesn’t work in this market..  SRCL also missed and was 60.63 -14.28 (19%).  On the upside we had carryover from several of the fast food and casual diners. Most were lower at the outset but came roaring back with the conference calls.  CAKE was slightly higher last night but moved an additional $1.71 (3.7%), WEN + .65 (4.07%), JACK +2.57 (2.95%), and today’s BLMN beat and after yesterday’s 5% move was +1.73 (7.86%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed with CELG -.11, BIIB+.60, AMGN +.02, REGN -1.69, ALXN-2.51, VRTX-.30, ICPT+.42, CLVS +5.07 (9.23%), ABBV +.69, GILD -1.25, TEVA-.19, MYL +.07, ONCE +2.85 (5.5%) and IBB -.66 (.61%).

 

RETAIL, was stronger today in the absence a WMT decline with a small rally +1.48 (1.62%), M +.51, JWN +.42, KSS +1.31, KORS +.16, SHLD -.04, JCP +.09, HD +2.61, TGT +2.07, TJX +1.11, DKS +.03, and XRT -.08.

 

FAANG, this group was higher but even FAANG couldn’t pull the NASDAQ positive with GOOGL +1.25, AMZN +6.28, FB +1.59, AAPL +1.95, NFLX -1.24, TSLA +13.25 (3.98%), NVDA +2.14, BA +5.48, BIDU +3.08, BABA +.67, IBM -.78 and XLK +.08.

 

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed with GS -.65, JPM +.36, BAC -.05, C -.50, PNC -3.68, and XLF -.24. We bought back the XLF3/29 calls @ $ .44.

 

OIL, $62.77+1.03, after testing my support @ 60.92 (my # is a close under 60.76) it rallied back to close with a nice game. Tonight we are trading 62.83 +.06. We’ll have to see if we can move through the supply between $64 on a closing basis. The stocks were higher today with CVX +1.18, APC +1.01, COP +1.26, BP +.61, PSX +.55, MPC +.19, MRO -.07, RIG +.44 (4.8%), OAS +.60 (7.7%), OXY +.71, XOM +1.18, HES +1.85, and XLE +.73.

 

METALS, the strong US$ continued to pressure the gold to test $1,322 and bounce back to close $1,332.70 +.70. This is an important area of support and if it doesn’t hold we can easily test $1,320-1,300.  We are trading $1,321.70-1.5 tonight.  If we hold here, I would expect a rally to $1,348-50 in the coming few days. It is trading unchanged tonight.  The silver and copper both fell in sympathy with the copper being the best performer in the group after its run from $3.03 to $3.27.  After testing $3.15 it closed today $3.2415 +.026 and is slightly lower right now at $3.2165- .025.

 

BITCOIN, $10,015 -325 gave up some more of its gains.  Technically, it had tried 11,000 but couldn’t make it and fell back to close down and tonight is trading $9,660 -355.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 2/21/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

NEWTON’S 3RD LAW !!

 

FOR TRADING February 22nd

 

Today’s action was very negative.  The markets were up and then there was a rally on the Fed minutes.  This was short-lived and when the rate on the 10yr note went from 2.87% up through 2.91 it moved to 2.945 in a nanosecond.  This collapsed the market and we had a 475 point reversal in the DJIA to close -166.97 (.67%), NASDAQ -16.88(.22%), S&P500 -14.93(.55%) and the Transports, up 185 midday then closed +31.39(.30%) and the Russell +1.84 (.12%).  The market internals on the NYSE were 2.5:1 down and 1.2:1 A/D.  NASDAQ was 5:4 lower on volume but about 1.1:1 up A/D.

 The problem, from my point of view, was that the action in the market today was that the momentum turned like Newton’s 3rd Law, producing an equal and opposite reaction.  While that works in physics, the market is usually not that black and white, but many shades of grey.  More often than not, we can move from up to even and even to down and we get to digest news or events.  However, on days like today the velocity of the moves is scary.  It is algorithmic and computer driven and you can get crushed if you get in front of it. No wonder the small investor shy’s away.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had earnings from a couple of names after the close, including a miss from ROKU.  While they beat on both top and bottom line but the guidance was a disappointment. The stock, up from $15.75 at the end of September has been a battleground between the longs and the 43% short interest.  It closed today $51.10 but is $40.55- $10.55 or 20.65% in extended hours.  Another was CAKE, whose numbers were in-line with somewhat disappointing guidance, but after trading down from $46.22 to $42.70 is now $47.60+1.48.  Then there was STMP who beat all around and gave great guidance and is trading 200.80 +15.84 (8.4%) after trading as high as $217.40.  JACK reported a small beat on earnings and a miss on revenues and traded down to $84, but has regained it all plus a bit to be $88.65 +1.38 (1.6%).  WEN beat topline but missed revenues and traded down to $15 but is back to $16.08 -.14.  

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was lower with CELG -.15, BIIB-1.35, AMGN-.55, REGN-5.53(1.7%), ALXN-1.75, VRTX-3.09(1.9%), ICPT-1.6-(2.6%), CLVS +2.62 (4.8%), SRPT +.35, GILD -.54, TEVA +.13, MYL-.12, ONCE +1.11 and IBB-.17.

 

 

RETAIL, for the second day WMT was the big drag -2.71(2.88%) for a 2-day decline of $13.26 (12.6%) or a decline in market cap of $39.24 Billion, or about the same as the GDP of Montana.  I make that comparison since the numbers that are thrown around today generally have no meaning to us.  The rest of the sector was mixed with M-.06, JWN-.43, KSS -.93, DDS +.41, KORS +.49, SHLD +.07, JCP -.09, HD -3.76, TJX -.53, TGT -.10, DKS -.34 and XRT +.04.

 

FAANG, this group was mixed but most on the low end of the range with GOOGL +11.03, AMZN +13.35, FB+1.69, AAPL-.98, NFLX =2.25, TSLA -1.23, NVDA -7.86 (3.2%), BA -1.45, BIDU +1.32, BABA +1.25, IBM -1.47 and XLK -.43.

 

 

FINANCIALS, were all over the place with GS -2.15 after being +5, JPM +.35, BAC -.10, C +.49, PNC +2.15, and XLF +.04.

 

OIL, $61.68 -.11, after testing my support @ 60.92 (my # is a close under 60.76) it rallied back to close with a small loss. Tonight we are trading lower @ $61.27 -.41. We’ll have to see if we can move through the supply between $61.50-62.25 on a closing basis. The stocks were all lower today with CVX -2.10, APC-1.98, COP-1.09, BP -.69, PSX -1.41, MPC +.05, MRO -.55, RIG -.02, OXY-.78, XOM-.86, HES -.61 and XLE-1.13 (1.67%).

 

METALS, the strong US$ continued to pressure the gold to test $1,324 and bounce back to close $1,332.10 +.90. This is an important area of support and if it doesn’t hold we can easily test $1,320-1,300.  We are trading $1,327.70-4.40 tonight.  If we hold here, I would expect a rally to $1,348-50 in the coming few days. It is trading unchanged tonight.  The silver and copper both fell in sympathy with the copper being the best performer in the group after its run from $3.03 to $3.27.  It closed today $3.2160+ .0255 and is slightly lower right now at $3.1975.

 

BITCOIN, $10,330 -1,355 gave up all of yesterday’s gains.  Technically, it had left a gap to the upside but closed it today and is trading slightly higher at $10,400 +70 tonight.  The stocks gave up most of the gains and closed lower with RIOT _.32, MARA -.18(6.7%), GBTC -2.13(10.6%), OSTK -1.80, LFIN-2.03, TEUM -.12, LBCC -.1494.3%), KODK-.25 and the ETFs, BLCN unchanged and BLOK -.26.

   

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 2/20/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

What’s Up with Retail ???

 

FOR TRADING February 21st

 

Today’s early action was all about retail with Walmart’s earnings disappointment driving the DJIA lower.  This was somewhat tempered by the upside in HD, but it late in the day HD went negative and we hit new lows.  The DJIA -254.63 (1.01%), NASDAQ -5.16 (.07%), S&P500 -15.96(.58%), Russell-13.56 (.88), and the biggest loser, DJ Transports -161.73 (1.54%).  Market Internals were weak as NYSE volume was 2.2:1 down and A/D 2:1.  Over on NASDAQ it was slightly better with volume 9:8 and A/D 2:1 down.  As far as what drove the DJIA lower we had WMT followed by UTX, UNH, TRV, GS and JNJ all contributing double digit losses with WMT the big one @-73.47, and only 5 were even positive.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had earnings from WMT and the big disappointment was clearly the eCommerce report of +23% when the prior quarter was +50% while AMZN was +38%.  HD also reported and it was upbeat with same store sales +7.2% and upbeat guidance for the year, but  closed 4.50 from the high, and down on the day.

There were several names in the news for issues other than earnings, UBNT received SEC subpoenas about documents, international trade practices and relationship with third parties.  The stock closed $55.28 -18.76 (25%) after trading as low as 49.40.  Also in the “we could have done without it” category was MDXG, who postponed its earning until its Audit committee completes its investigation.  After a premarket halt it opened at $9.90 and traded between 8.62 and 10.43 closing $8.75 -5.72 or 39.55%.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was lower with CELG -1.41, BIIB -4.42, AMGN -.57, REGN -9.11(2.7%), ALXN -1.62, INCY -.52, CLVS -.44, ABBV -.30, GILD +.30, TEVA -.86, MYL -.80, ONCE -4.79 (3.5%) and IBB -1.11.

 

RETAIL, as mentioned above we had a pretty major negative influence from WMT and then a selloff in HD, WMT finished 94.36 -10.42 (9.94%), M -.40, KSS -1.24, DDS and KORS unchanged, SHLD -.28 (10.7%), JCP -.01, GPS -1.66 (5%), TJX -.96, TGT -2.24, TPR -.65, UAA -.12, DKS -.36, SIG -2.22 (4.3%), and XRT -.91 (1.87%).

 

FAANG, this group was mixed with GOOGL +7.50, AMZN +22.14 (1.53%), FB -1.26, AAPL -.25, NFLX +.48, TSLA -.49, NVDA +5.74 (2.35%), BA -1.24, BIDU +.39, BABA +3.74 (2%), IBM -.89, and XLK +.06.

 

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed with GS -2.62, JPM +.16, BAC unch., C -.31, PNC +.05, and XLF -.05. The XLF 3/29 calls bought Tuesday at an average price of $.32 closed were sold today @ $ .54.

 

 

OIL, $61.79 +.24, after trading up to $62.65 it fell back to the lows but managed a small gain.  Tonight we are trading slightly lower @ $61.59 -.20. We’ll have to see if we can move through the supply between $61.50-62.25 on a closing basis. The stocks were mixed to lower today with CVX -1.32, APC +.42, COP +.19, BP -.10, PSX -1.29, MPC -1.22, MRO +.25, RIG -.14, OAS +.03, OXY -.17, XOM -.72, HES +.19, and XLE -.45.

 

METALS, the strong US$ collapsed the gold $25. To close $1,331.20.  This is an important area of support and if it doesn’t hold we can easily test $1,320-1,300.  I don’t expect that kind of drop and we had an order in below the market for GLD 3/127 calls that was filled @ $1.27.  They closed $ .98.  If we hold here, I would expect a rally to $1,348-50 in the coming few days. It is trading unchanged tonight.  The silver and copper both fell in sympathy with the copper being the best performer in the group after its run from $3.03 to $3.27.  It closed today $3.1905 -$ .05 and is also unchanged right now.

 

BITCOIN, $11,685 +$1,550 finally had a strong day after 10 days of sideways to slightly higher consolidation, although it is now trading lower -$610.  I’ve not mentioned it lately but some of the stocks are coming back to life after the washout and the airing of the CNBC story on RIOT, and the “sudden death” of the 52 year old bureaucrat from So. Korea who was the voice of regulation.  The 15% move in Bitcoin didn’t help RIOT -.78 (6.8%), MARA -.19, GBTC +2.24 (12.6%), OSTK +.45, LFIN +2.60 (7.56%) and KODK +.10, and the 2 ETFs, BLOK +.12 and BLCN -.11.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 2/15/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Remarkable !!

 

FOR TRADING February 16TH

 

Today’s early action was remarkable on several levels, and we were up from the get go and held there for the first hour and then spent the next hour giving it all back to go down on the day.  What was remarkable was that on the fifth day in a row the 1:00 PM rally built until 2:45 when we made a new high of day and rallied right into the close at +306.88 (1.23%), NASDAQ +112.81(1.58), s&p500+32.57, the Russell +15.09(.99%) and the Transports +74.19(.71%).  Internals were again, positive but not excessive with NYSE volume 2.5:1 with A/D 2:1 and NASDAQ 3:1 and 2.2:1 respectively.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had earnings from NTAP late yesterday and followed thru this morning with a gap down to open $54.50 and traded to 52.00 before coming back to the high of the day @ 57.67-2.97(4.90%).  This afternoon we had SHAK closed $41.21 and after the numbers traded up to 44.12 before selling off to close 39.30-1.91 (4.6%) on poor guidance.  Then came CBS and TRUE, also lower on disappointing guidance. CBS was -.19 and TRUE traded up to $12.64 before moving lower to $10.50 and closed 11.18 +.09.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed to higher with TEVA continuing to work higher after the Buffett reported purchase and has now moved from $17.75 to 21.56 this week and closed 20.81 +1.48 (7.66%) today.  CELG +.11, BIIB +3.30, AMGN +4.23, REGN +2.49, ALXN -.49, VRTX +3.68, VRX +.23, ICPT +4.43 (7.7%), INCY-2.55(2.9%), SRPT +3.57(6%), TEVA +1.47(7.6%), and IBB +1.03.

 

RETAIL, had a great day again today with M +.83, JWN+.88, KSS +.59, DDS +2.06, KORS+1.35 SHLD +.28(12.2%), JCP +.12, WMT +1.78, TJX +1.41, TGT +.70, TPR +.14, UAA +.69, LULU-.30, DKS -.08 and XRT +.53.

  

FAANG, all of these were higher with GOOGL+21.29, AMZN+11.80, FB+.68, AAPL +5.93(3.54%), NFLX15.98 (6%), TSLA +12.19 (3.78%), NVDA +5.48, BA +12.15, BIDU+12.99(5.5%), BABA +.99, IBM+1.31, and XLK +1.26 (1.91%).

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS +5.27, JPM +.52, BAC +.23, C +.39, PNC +1.59 and XLF +.16.The XLF 3/29 calls bought  Tuesday at an average price of $.32 closed $ .58 today.

 

OIL, $61.34 +.74, after trading down almost $1the oil found solid support around $59.75 and rallied hard to touch $61.64.  Tonight we are trading slightly higher. We’ll have to see if we can move through the supply between $61.50-62.25.  The stock were mixed to lower today with CVX +.14, APC -.16, COP -.86, BP +.10, MPC -.06, MRO -.63 (3.75), RIG -.11, OAS -.12, OXY -.42, XOM -.11, HES +.16 and XLE -.17.

 

METALS, Gold had a quiet day today consolidating its $40 range from yesterday and closed $1,355.30 -2.70.  It is higher tonight by $1.90, and as long as the US$ remains weak this one will move higher once it clears the closing high at $1,368.  Copper had another good day consolidating its 4 day move from $3.02 to close $3.2455 closing right near that high, and is unchanged tonight.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 2/14/2018

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Valentine’s Surprise ??

 

FOR TRADING February 15TH

 

Today’s early action was based on the disappointing CPI and Retail sales numbers.  The overnight and early futures were + 160 or so and when the numbers hit they did a dramatic turnaround to be down as much as 275.  It took only 30 minutes for the S&P500 to cross unchanged and while it consolidated higher until 1:00 when it broke to the upside and made solid headway right into the close.  DJIA +253.04 (1.03%), NASDAQ +130.11 (1.86%), S&P500 +35.69 (1.34%), the Russell +27.15 (1.82 and the Transports +102.27 (.97%). Market internals were

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we started the day with an announcement by DBVT that the FDA agrees with their progress on Viaskin, a peanut allergy med for kids 4-11 years of age.  The stock gapped up to $26.50 +5.64 or just 25%. CMG hired the Brian Niccol CEO from Taco Bell and the street loved it and it closed $289.97 +$38.54 (15%).

 

Earnings for UAA last night carried over this morning adding to yesterday’s $2.47 for another $1.07 (6.4%), and helped retail to move higher directly in the face of the Retail sales number disappointment.

 

After the close we had earnings on CSCO, a beat both top and bottom and closed $42.16 +.93 and now trading $44.93 +3.70 (8.97%), with and increased buyback and raise of the dividend.  AMAT a beat, trading as high as $53.70 before trading 52.96+2.41.  TRIP a beat, was 40.73 +.85, now $48.38 +7.66 (18.8%) and CTL numbers are somewhat of a mystery to me, but as I’ve discussed, the gigantic dividend of $2.16 (12%) is covered with cash flow after dividend of $850MM-$1.05Billion and therefore fundamentally sound. The stock is trading $19.35 +2.14(12.4%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed to higher with TEVA the star after hours on the filing of a BRKa position of 18.9MM shares driving the stock higher to -- . AMGN +5.38, CELG +2.41, REGN, again with no news -19.49 (6.15%) and down from $351 this week, ALXN +9.23 (8.1%), ISRG +7.98, MYL +1.20, QUFE +2.31 (10.4%), PBYI +6.90 (11.2%), and IBB +2.19 (2%).

 

RETAIL, had a great day again today with M +.76, JWN +1.19, KSS+1.67, KORS+.99, SHLD +.03, JCP +.17 (4.8%), DDS +3.21 (4.9%), WMT +.60, TJX +1.33, TGT+1.47, NKE +1.98, LULU +4.46(5.8%), SIG +2.12, and XRT +.82 (1.8%).

 FAANG, all of these were higher with the exception of YSLA -.16, GOOGL +18.56, AMZN +35.42, FB +6.03 (3.48%), AAPL +3.46, NFLX +8.28, NVDA +8.69 , BA +1.74, BIDU +10.40 (4.61%), BABA +7.71 (4.3%), IBM +4.35 and XLK +1.41 (2.17%).

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS +6.51, JPM +2.45, BAC +.82, PNC +5.01, C +1.42, and XLF +.61 (2.16%) The XLF 3/29 calls bought yesterday at an average price of $.32 closed $ .47 today.

 

OIL, $60.71 + 1.52, after trading down again to test the $58 level we’ve been keying off to hold and even though the EEI numbers were bearish with a build in crude, but Cushing had a drawdown and demand for export was up.  We’ll have to see if we can move through the supply between $61.50-62.25.  The stock were all higher with CVX +.41, APC +2.60, COP +2.24, BP +1.00, PSX -.26, MPC +2.15, MRO +1.06 (6.6%), RIG +.10, OAS +.36 (4.6%), OXY +.16, HESS+2.57 (6%), and XLE +.98(1.5%).

 

METALS, Gold bounced off support at $1,310 and continues to fight its way back to close $1,330.40 +$4.00 yesterday and they tried the downside this morning and it bounced hard off $1.320 and exploded to the upside slicing right through plenty of supply between $1,340-50 and is trading $1,354.00 +23.60. Copper had another good day trading up to close $3.2360 +.0735 and now needs to get beyond some pretty big supply between $3.25-3.28.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 2/13/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Happy Valentines Day !!

 

FOR TRADING February 14TH

 

Today’s action was a soft start and an initial decline to the lows of the day to 2637 -20 followed by a quiet trading range until 1:15 when we had a slow and steady 3 hours to close +6.94 (.26%).  The DJIA and NASDAQ followed suit and closed +39.18 (.16%) and +31.55 (.46%) for the biggest percentage gain for the day.  The Russell +3.97 (.27%) and even the Transport were +80.04 or .08%. Market internals were slightly positive with the NYSE volume 1.3:1 and A/D 4:3 while at NASDAQ they were slightly better with 2:1 and 9:% respectively.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we started the day with WBA (Walgreens) buying ABC (AmerisourceBergen) the later trading to $102 before closing 97.77+8.32 (9.3%).  This was followed by the announcement that AMZN making a move into distribution to hospitals forced MCK -6 but closing down just 2.84 (1.9%), CAH -2.34 (3.4%) and OMI lower by .76 (4.8%).  Not to be outdone, the FTC is suing HSIC and PDCO, both in dental supplies for “conspiring to refuse to provide discounts to buyer groups representing dental practices.”

 

Earnings we the highlight for UAA, who beat and rallied to close $16.70 +2.47 (18%), VECO beat and traded up $2.10 (13.9%) and then after the close FOSL, the maker of many private label watches, had a giant beat and after closing $9.04 +.65 (7.8%) blew through the last years highs to trade $18.02 and is $16.30 +$7.25 for a move of 94%.  The fact that the short interest in FOSL is 39% drove it straight up.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed with AMGN +1.07 but REGN, with no specific news was -18.10 (5.2%).  ALXN -1.46, VRTX +2.48, ICPT -.48, INCY +.51, GILD +.36, TEVA -.78, MYL -.19, ONCE +.72, BIIB +.36 and IBB +.19.

 

RETAIL, has had a good bounce here, particularly the apparel sellers and they continued to gain with M +.71, JWN +.05, KSS +1.78, DDS +1.51, KORS +1.52, even SHLD +.20 (9.6%), WMT +1.64, TJX -.16, TGT +2.00, UAA mentioned above +2.59 (18.2%), DKS +.66, RL +1.15 and XRT +.22.

 

FAANG, all of these were higher with the exception of FB -2.61, and GOOGL -.42.  AMZN +29.72, AAPL +1.39, NFLX +.67, TSLA +8.77, BA -.06, BIDU +15.58 (7.3%), BABA +2.50, IBM-.40, and XLK +.16.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS +1.94, JPM +.74, BAC +.08, C +.44, PNC +1.01, and XLF +.12.  We also bought XLF 3/29 calls today at an average price of $.32.

 

OIL, $59.19 -.10 after trading down almost $1.00 rallied back to close ¾ up on its range. If we don’t hold Friday’s low (58.07) we will probably test the breakout at $54.00, but the key will be whether demand is big enough to eat up increasing production.

 

METALS, Gold bounced off support at $1,310 and continues to fight its way back to close $1,330.40 +$4.00.  It is trading $1,336 +5.40 tonight.  There is plenty of supply to work through between $1,340-50.  Copper had another good day trading up to close $3.1625 +7.60 and is slightly lower tonight -.011.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 2/12/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Constructive But not Persuasive

 

FOR TRADING February 13TH

 

Today’s action was pretty much one way if you just look at the net change, but it wasn’t that way for those of us who watched it all day.  We started out with the big carryover from Friday, helped with Asia, Europe and London.  What really happened was that after the big run from the open we had a selloff that started around 9:50 and continued all the way back to within $4 (S&P500) of unchanged until we finally made a new high on the day around 12:15.  We had a $50 range on the day and closed within $8 of the highs, so, all in all a good day.  Market internals were well within the appropriate margins for an up 1.7% with the NYSE volume 4:1 and A/D 2.7:1.  Over on NASDAQ they were slightly subdued at 3:1 and 2:1 respectively. However, it should be remembered that from 2:00 Friday we have rallied 133, or halfway from the high to that low.  This is often a technical position that involves a test before resuming the trend to new highs. The changes for the day were DJIA +410.37 (1.7%), NASDAQ +107.47 (1.56%), S&p500 +36.46 (1.39%), the Russell+13.15 (.89%) and the Transports +164.85 (1.6%).

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, VIPS, the Chinese based catalog sales company was up all day in anticipation of earnings, which came in even better than expected and took the stock from $16.39 +1.05 to $18.07 up an additional $1.67.  Not only were revenues and earnings solid beats, but guidance was expansive.

 

Also in the news, ULTA, the big box salon and makeup retailer took it on the chin on reports that it was selling “used” cosmetics. These are product that has been returned and sold alongside new, unopened products. The stock closed $209.48 -9.07 (4.15%) but well of the high last month of $249.

 

BIO/PHARMA, was solidly higher with AMGN +1.41, REGN +6.29 (1.9%), ALXN +6.83 +6.29%), VRTX -.95, VRX =.32, ISRG +5.60(1.4%), INCY +3.20 (3.6%), TEVA +.66 (3.5%), MYL+1.32 (3.3%), QUER +3.14 (16.3%).  The IBB was $107.35 +1.68 after last week’s break of the 200 day moving average and reversal.

 

RETAIL, has had a good bounce here, particularly the apparel sellers, but today was inconsequential with M +.04, JWN +.48, KORS +1.09, SHLD -.11(5.12% and still terminal), WMT +.25, TJX +.07, TGT -.36, DKS +.61, and XRT -.01.

 

FAANG, all of these were higher with the exception of NVDA which was lower by 4.29.  GOOGL +7.19, AMZN +47 (3.5%), FB was lower all day but finished +.09, AAPL +6.24(4%), NFLX +8.78 (3.5%), TSLA +5.48, BA +11.42 (3.4%) BIDU +6.67, BABA +.67, IBM +2.84, and XLK +1.14.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS +3.52, JPM +1.51, BAC +.74, C +.97, PNC +.29 and XLF +.38.

 

Bitcoin, had a quiet day and was +235 and is +$55 tonight. The two ETFs were BLCN +.31 and BLOK +.33. The stocks have been pretty unimpressive lately and if I had to bet, OSTK -3.20 (5.46%) is in this for the long-term and is the best one to trade.  Others that have just added “block chain” to their names are as worthless as they were before.  KODK +.55 is the former Eastman Kodak and has given back almost all of it upside move.

 

OIL, $59.29 +.09 and continued to fall as low as $58 on Friday and bouncing to a high of $60.83 this morning before falling back to basically unchanged. It is trading +.19 tonight and is still oversold. All of my list is higher and the XLE was $67.76 +1.09 (1.63%).  If we don’t hold Friday’s low (58.07) we will probably test the breakout at $54.00.

 

METALS, Gold bounced off support at $1,310 and traded back to $1,330 before closing +$10 closed up on the day @ $1,326.40 and is currently trading $1,324.80 -1.60. Resistance between $1,330-40 may choke off the advance and we may need to consolidate and test $1,300-1,310 again before heading any higher.  The problem is also the US$ and rising interest rates.  Copper was unable to take out $3.25 and fell all the way back to $3.0260 a rally to 3.10 closing $3.0865 + $ .05.  If we hold $3.00 we can move back to $3.10 -3.12 and test that level again.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 2/8/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

What Do I Do Now ??

 

FOR TRADING February 9TH

 

Today’s action was about as ugly as it gets. We had a huge rally in the futures between 8:00 and the open, but it didn’t hold the gains at all.  We moved lower and really never looked back.  We got stopped out of our XFL calls as the bank stocks fell.  The only improvement occurred just after 1:00PM with the S&P 500 trying to hold 2616 and rallying back $35 and then pulled back and ran out of steam around 2:30 and we headed back lower.  The final half hour was pretty much a liquidation across the board.  Nothing (except TWTR) was spared, and actually I think that is a good thing.  The fact that there is wholesale selling of the biggest and smallest names means that there is pain.  Pain=capitulation and tomorrow morning will probably follow thru and we can have a “tradable bounce.”  Market internals weren’t quite as bad as Monday but NYSE volume was 9:1 and A/D 8:1 with NASDAQ about 6:1 for both.  DJIA -1032.89 (4.15%), NASDAQ -274.82 (3.9%), S&P 500 -100.66 (3.75), the Russell -44.18 (2.93%) and the DJ Transports -400.99 (3.8%).

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had some earnings last night and TWTR’s beat and the run to $35 before closing $30.18 +3.27 (12%) was really something to watch.  Yelp has a miss and finished the day $38.63 -6.31 (14%).  Today we had FEYE had a beat and is trading $15.90 +1.78 (13%) and is generally thought to be one that may be taken over.  By far the biggest name, and biggest winner tonight is NVDA which also beat and gave good guidance.  It closed $217.52 -11.28 but is now trading $241.23 +23.72 (11%). EXPE reported a miss and after closing 123.03 -6.30 it is now $99.90-23.13 more for a loss on the day of $27.

 

In the Weekly Strategies on Sunday night I wrote that the way to avoid at least a portion of the increased volatility was to go to the list of large-cap solid companies that are increasing dividends and utilize a “buy and write” strategy to increase yields.  The example was CSCO, and I followed that with a purchase of 150 shares @ $40.88 and sold 2 of the March 42 calls @ $1.29 for a credit of $258. Today I covered those calls for a profit of $212, this lowered the cost of the stock to $39.16 and at the close today $39.20 we are even, and I rewrote the $42s at $1.06 just before the close again lowering the price down to just below $37.75. I bought a solid company, paying 3%, the covered write (the most conservative way to use options, I will continue to lay-off risk and earn 3+%. While the protection in this trade doesn’t cancel out all risk, it does eliminate some of the pain.  And I will continue to write and rewrite until they call the stock away.

 

BIO/PHARMA, as with most groups, this one was lower across the board with loses ranging from 1% to 10%. I’m not listing them all but the worst was TEVA -2.21 (10.6% on earnings to AMGN -1.68 or just .95%.  The IBB was $105.01 -4.40 (4%) and broke Tuesday’s low which takes it below the 200 day moving average and only $3.34 over its low in November or $101.67.

 

RETAIL, same story as above with all of my list lower today with the worst, KORS down $6.01 (9%) and the XRT -1.32 (2.89%).The 200 day moving average is just under $42, and the low on Tuesday was 42.77.

 

FAANG, all of these were lower with the exception of NVDA which had earnings after the close (discussed above). Unfortunately, these leaders on the upside are also leading on the downside and broke Tuesday’s low and closed below @ $62.01, with the 200 day moving average just $2.01lower at $60.  There is a gap that has not been filled from October 26/27 between $61.16 and $61.88.

 

FINANCIALS, which we were stopped out of the XLF calls that we added yesterday on the 50% Down Rule. We were down across the board he too, with GS -9.60 (4.5%), JPM -4.37 (3.9%) and the XLF 27.13 -1.10 (3.9%).  We matched the Tuesday low almost exactly and the 200 day moving average is $25.89.

 

Bitcoin, had a quiet day and was - $5 and is trading +$10 tonight. The two ETFs were BLCN -.76 (3.3%) and BLOK -.69 (3.6%).

 

OIL, $61.15 -.64 and continues to falls toward support around $60.  We are trading $60.56 -.59 and is oversold.  The problem right now is the weakness in the US$ and the dramatic production here in the US.  All of my list is lower and the XLE was $67.28 -1.52 (2.2%) and also broke the Tuesday low and the 200 day moving average. If we continue to fall the next stop will be the lows of last summer.

 

METALS, Gold bounced off support at $1,310 and closed up on the day @ $1,319 +$4.40 and is currently trading $1,323.50 +$4.6.  Resistance between $1,330-40 may choke off the advance and we may need to consolidate and test $1,300-1,310 again before heading any higher.  The problem is also the US$ and rising interest rates.  Copper was unable to take out $3.25 and fell yesterday all the way back to $3.0850-.10 and followed again today touching $3.06 before closing $3.0820, and is trading $3-0765-.005.  We could test the $3.00 area again very shortly.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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Before the open 2/8/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Another Lower Open

 

FOR TRADING February 8TH

 

Yesterday’s action was a disappointment that we couldn’t hold the 200+ gains in the DJIA and the S&P 500 gains of 20+.  The NASDAQ was the weak sister all day.  Market internals were close enough to 1:1 that they didn’t really matter.  The return to greater volatility is making the market much more profitable for the algorithm and momentum players but more difficult for swing trades and longer-term (more than 3 hours) trading.  The best example was the move all day higher in our position in XLF calls where the move from the low@ $ .35 to the high @ .54, with the spread between the bid and asked, usually .01 moving to as much as .05 reflecting the lack of conviction of the market makers to accepting any risk in their markets.  The best lesson here is that with increased volatility you cannot use market orders in most trades.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, we had plenty of earnings yesterday with the notable being MTSI with a miss on both top and bottom lines and some hazy guidance gapping the stock down $6.50 only to be followed lower all day to trade $18.86 before closing $19.21 – 11.15 or 36.73%.  This killed then entire group with the ETF trading down $2.69 or 2.64%.  Also lower was CMG -32.12 (10.55%) and down from $345 10 days ago to 272.21 or $73 (21%).

 

After the close we had earnings misses from IRBT trading down from its 88.04 close to 71.44 (19%) this morning, YELP from just under $45 to $40 this morning, and TEVA with a beat top and bottom lines but poor guidance and is down 2.91 or 14%.  On the upside the move in TWTR is nothing short of astounding @ $32 +6.50 or 25%.

 

I’m not going into all of the sectors this morning but Oil clearly deserves mention.  We own SCO (3X inverse oil) but we tried a “counter-trend” trade in UCO calls and were crushed when they traded from the open @ $ .40 and traded right through our 50% rule number @ $ .27 and we were filled @ $ .16.  This happens once in a while and fortunately it was a small position.  The SCO position is only 300 shares but was up from $21.43 to close $23.06 and is 23.38 +.35, we are long @ $21.71, so not a huge gain, but a solid hedge for the $100M account.  Support remains around $60.60 and we are $61.24 -.55 this morning.

 

Gold also moved lower with the rise in interest rates and the US$.  Breaking through the support @ $1,330, it tried to reverse and just collapsed to $1,310.  This is about a 60% retracement of the move from $1,242 to the highs @ $1,370.  I need some basing action or a blow off below $1,290-1,300 to get back into the trade.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

 

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After the close 2/6/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

BIG Bounce !!

 

FOR TRADING February 7TH

 

Today’s action was all over the place.  We started down with follow-thru from yesterday and the lows were down 578 in the DJIA, but that didn’t last long as we rallied back and to trade between 24,700 and 24,100 until around 2:45 when we went positive for the last time and stayed there, closing 24,912 +567.02 (2.33%).  NASDAQ was +148.35 (2.13%), S&P500 +46.20 (1.74%), the Russell +16.08 (1.1%) and the Transports traded from 10,121 to 10,581 closing +178.44 (1.72%). Market internals were much improved with NYSE volume 4:1 and A/D 2.5:1 while over on NASDAQ we were 3:1 and 3:2 respectively.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, We had earnings beat from DIS and we are trading higher @ $108.77 +2.83 (2.57%) after being up $1.40 before the numbers, SNAP had a surprise beat also and the stock, down from $29.44 after the deal last March closed $14.06 and is currently $16.90 +2.85 (20%), AKAM beat and was $63.67 + .86 but is now trading $68.70 +5.03 (8.9%), and CMG $304.33 +4.03 (1.3%) which was in line but is trading $290 -14.33 (4.7%).

 

In the Weekly Strategies on Sunday night I wrote that the way to avoid at least a portion of the increased volatility was to go to the list of large-cap solid companies that are increasing dividends and utilize a “buy and write” strategy to increase yields.  The example was CSCO, and I followed that with a purchase of 150 shares @ $40.88 and sold 2 of the March 42 calls @ $1.29 for a credit of $258. Today I covered those calls for a profit of $212, this lowered the cost of the stock to $39.16 and at the close today $40.17 we are profitable, and I will rewrite either the $42s or $41s on the probable up open tomorrow. I bought a solid company, paying 3%, the covered write (the most conservative way to use options, I will continue to lay-off risk and earn 3+%. While the protection in this trade doesn’t cancel out all risk, it does eliminate some of the pain.

 

BIO/PHARMA, as with most groups, this one was higher across the board with gains ranging from +.5% to +4.5%. CELG +2.51 (2.7%), AMGN +2.15 (1.2%), VRTX +4.12 (2.66%), ISRG +5.21 (1.3%), ICPT +2.08 (3.5%), ABBV +2.68 (2.45%), TEVA +.66 (3.4%), QURE +.80 (4.42%) and the IBB +2.18 (2%). As noted last night the 200 day moving average was just under $105 and today’s low was $105.32.

 

 

RETAIL, same story as above with most of my list higher from the worst, SHLD, still terminal up .08 (3.6%), M +.69 (2.95), JWN +1.62 (3.5%), KSS +1.61 (2.6%), JCP +.23 (6.9%), WMT +.79, TJX -.04, TGT +1.93 (2.7%), TPR (formerly Coach and with earnings) +4.31 (9.6%), and XRT +1.28 (2.9%). The 200 day moving average was just under $42, and today’s low was $42.77 before closing $45.30.

 

FAANG, all of these were higher and my comment “This is one of the great boomerang sectors” could not have been more on the money.  After the lower opening with many of these down $10-20 we rallied higher by as much as $50, with GOOGL +20.60, AMZN +51, FB +3.54, AAPL +6.60 after a 154 low and 163.72 high, NFLX +11.46 ($21 range), TSLA +1.87, NVDA +14.15 (204 – 228 range), BA +12.32 ($24 range), BIDU +3.45, BABA +4.64 (only) $11 range, IBM +2.87 and XLK +1.49 (2.3%).

 

 

FINANCIALS,  which we were stopped out of yesterday, followed the same script with a lower open and a strong rally with GS +8.99 (3.6%), JPM +3.35 (3%), BAC +.96 (3.1%), C +1.66 (2.3%), PNC +3.97 (2.6%), AIG -.37, and XLF +.51 (1.8%) and we called for support @ $26.90 and today’s low was $27.11.  We also bought back XLF calls with a lower strike for a rebound.

 

Bitcoin, traded lower again today trading down to 5940 before closing $7600+530, and is currently trading $7650+ 50. The stocks were higher with RIOT +2.37 (22%), MARA +.27 (11.4%), GBTC +2.27 (22.6%), OSTK +6.50 (13.1%) LFIN +3.34 (10.7%), LBCC +.02, KODK -.70 (11.3%) and the two ETFs were BLCN +.74 (3.2%) and BLOK +.43 (2.3%).

 

OIL, $63.39 -.76, and continues to hold above the support around $63.  We are trading $63.83 +.44   and unless it closes below $62.78 I think we will try the upper end of the trading range near $66-66.50.  We bought UCO 2/27 (3X leveraged ETF) for a bounce here to the upside.  We are very close to the $62.78 and will sell if we close below there.

 

METALS, Gold tried $1,350 again today and couldn’t get through and headed back to $1,330. The support at $1,330 was of major importance since this was the most recent breakout area for the move to 1,370 early last month.  We broke through there and traded down to $1,324.  This is a big disappointment and I will now keep my eye on $1,320-15 to see if we hold there.  Copper was up to test the highs from 1/25 of $3.258 with yesterday being $3.2575 before closing back at 3.22 +.03 and traded lower to $3.16 before closing $3.2055-.0155, but near the highs of the day. Until and unless we close over $3.25-3.27 we are stuck in this trading range.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

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After the close 2/5/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Historic Decline !!

 

FOR TRADING February 6TH

 

Today’s action was all over the place.  We started down with follow-thru from Friday and after we hit -300 in the DJIA we rallied all the way back to slightly up.  After that we traded in an orderly way until 2:15 or so when we made new lows on the day and the DJIA broke below 25,025 and the selloff began and we sold down to 23,923 -1597 before rallying back to down ONLY -1176 (4.6%).  The totals were: S&P500 -113.16 (4.1%), NASDAQ -273.42 (3.8%), the Russell -56.18 (3.6%), and the DJ Transports, which were actually up most of the morning closed -336.77 (3.15%).  Market internals were dramatic as you would expect with NYSE volume 23:1 and the A/D was 8:1 and NASDAQ was right around 7:1 on both.  We also went through most of the important supports of 50 day and even 100 day moving averages.  Markets like today are immune to the technical levels as with the proliferation of ETFs that have to liquidate to balance, only to have the stocks continue to fall, followed by more liquidation to rebalance.  While not “portfolio insurance” we are susceptible to further decline.  Also remember that when the U.S. sneezes, the world gets a cold, and we will undoubtedly see selloffs in Asia, followed by Europe and London before we reopen.  In fact, as we trade until 8:00PM in the electronic extended hours we are continuing lower.

*Futures are actually turning higher as I send this…...

S&P + 18.00

Dow +200

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, I’m going to avoid the names with news tonight since the market is the news.  We can now expect that while many may think that we have had a meaningful correction from S&P 500 highs of 2872 to today’s low around 2646 or 7.8%, just as we were over-extended on the upside we are susceptible to more downside.  I was clearly early in the buys of XLF and JPM calls, but these are exactly the kind of stocks and ETFs that will profit by the increasing interest rates.  I also wrote in last night’s Weekly Strategies that the way to avoid at least a portion of the increased volatility was to go to the list of large-cap solid companies that are increasing dividends and utilize a “buy and write” strategy to increase yields.  The example was CSCO, and I followed that with a purchase of 150 shares @ $40.88 and sold 2 of the March 42 calls @ $1.29 for a credit of $258.  This lowered the cost of the stock to $39.16 and at the close today $38.78 I feel like I bought a solid company, paying 3%, and while I may have to cover the calls (at a profit) and rewrite them with a lower strike, I will continue to lay-off risk and earn 3%. While the protection in this trade doesn’t cancel out all risk, it does eliminate some of the pain.

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA, it is pointless to discuss all the individual names since 100% were lower with losses from .58 for INCY (.68%) to CELG -6.87 (6.9%).  The only way to look at the group is the IBB -5.65 (5%) and it is 10% from its high just 6 days ago. Its 200 day moving average is 105.67 and it is well supported between$102 -$105.

 

RETAIL, same story as above with 100% of my list lower from the worst, SHLD, still terminal down .15 (6.4%) to VFC – 1.28 (1.6%) with the ETF,  XRT-1.47 (3.2%) and down from its high, also 6 days ago 10.2%.  The 200 day moving average is just under $42, with price support right there also.

 

FAANG, AAPL tried to be the star today after opening lower by $1, traded lower to $158 and then rallied to up almost $3 before trading sideways and staying up on the day until 2:45PM and then it to succumbed to the selloff and closed down $4.01and is just $ .49 lower in extended hours. GOOGL -63.07 (5.8%), AMZN -56.55 (3.9%), FB -11.56 (6.1%), NFLX -14.78 (5.5%), TSLA -13 (3.78%), NVDA -23.02 (9.8%), BA -24.11 (7.1%), BIDU -11.60 (4.9%), BABA -11.15 (6%), IBM -6.78 (4.3%) and XLK -3.78 (5.7%).  This is one of the great boomerang sectors and one that I will be a buyer of probably tomorrow.

 

FINANCIALS, were also down pretty hard but it is also a sector that I like, and the rise in interest rates helps it.  I bought JPM 2/115 calls today as well as XLF 2/29 calls and are suffering.  GS -13.64 (4.6%), JPM -5.9%), BAC -2.00 (6.2%), C -5.02 (6.5%), PNC -8.97 (5.7%), AIG -3.52 (5.6%), and XLF -1.71 (5.8%).  Support is around the $26.90 area and the 200 day moving average is $25.82.

 

Bitcoin, was much lower again today trading down to 6600 before closing $7050-1440, and is currently trading $6850 -200 more. The stocks were all lower with losses of up to 25%.  Most are lower by 10-12%, with the smallest loss being 3%.  The two ETFs were BLCN -1.50 (6.34%) and BLOK -1.54 (7.8%).

 

OIL, $64.15 -1.30, and is holding above the support around $63.  We are trading $63.53 -.62 and unless it closes below $62.78 I think we will try the upper end of the trading range near $66-66.50.  All of the oils I watch are down between 3 – 5%, tame considering the rest of the market sectors.  XLE -4.25 (5.87%) was at the worst end of the group, with its 200 day moving average only $ .60 below the close.

 

METALS, Gold found support right around the round number $1,330 and bounced higher to close 1,336.50 -.60 and is trading higher tonight by $5.50.  The bounce off 1,330 is of major importance since this was the most recent breakout area for the move to 1,370 early last month.  There is a fairly well formed “flag” here and a break of the downtrend line above 1,345 or so should send it to new highs.  Copper was up to test the highs from 1/25 of $3.258 with today being $3.2575 before closing back at 3.22 +.03 and is trading lower to $3.19 -.031.  Until and unless we close over $3.25-3.27 we are stuck in this trading range.

 

REMEMBER: Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 2/1/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

QUAD “A” NUMBERS

AMGN, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL !!

 

FOR TRADING February 2nd

 

Today’s action was all over the place.  We started down, bottomed and rallied, fell back to the lows and rallied into the close.  We traded SPY calls and made some money on the trade and then tried it again and gave back 25% of the gains.  Market internals were barely worth mentioning with NYSE 1.2:1 volume but more stocks lower that up.  NASDAQ was negative on volume at 6:5 and 1:1 A/D.  The biggest NASDAQ names reported this afternoon and I will discuss below.  A.A.I.I. Sentiment was a gain in the Bears of 4.7% to 26.5 (avg. 30.5%), Neutral -4% at 26.5 (avg.31) and Bulls fell .7% to 44.8 still above its average of 38.5%.  As I’ve discussed before, these are contrary indicators but the increase in Bears at the expense of Neutral shows me that we are being driven by some very pointed change for both sides with no one wanting to be out of the market.

 

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, Earnings were an interesting mix with HSY a miss and down $6.56 (6%), AMGN a miss and 185.56 -6.42 (3.4%) and down from $201 this week.  GPRO a miss and touched $4.90 -.60 before a rally to $5.20, V beat but is -2.15 or 1.7%, MAT missed and is 14 -1.33or 6.7%, DECK beat and is 93.25 +6 after trading as high as $102.  ATHN beat and is $140 +15 (12%) as well as DATA, also a beat +11 or 14%. The other “A’s” were AMZN with a beat and had sold off from $1459 to close 1390 and is now $1,475 +86.29 (6.2%) while Alphabet, GOOGL was a miss and after closing traded down to $1,104 and bounced to 1166 and is now 1150 -31. AAPL which is actually lower on the year reported “in-line” numbers that reflected good margins. The stock was down to $162.55 but bounced back to trading now @ $173 +5.47.  PYPL had good numbers but soft guidance and is 78.40 -6.92 (6.1%), and last, MAT missed and is $13.95 -1.37 but was $18.88 just 7 trading days ago on takeover talk.  

 

BIO/PHARMA, as was weak again with AMGN missing (above) led the group lower with VRTX, a beat yesterday the only major up (5.68 or 3.4$).  The others were CELG -.71, BIIB -1.81, REGN -20.86 (5.7%), ALXN -1.23, ISRG -5.75, INCY -.62, CLVS -1.25, GILD -.31, TEVA +.77, PBYI -1.35, LABU +.34, and IBB -.10.

 

 

RETAIL, KSS was the only retailer I cover that was higher +.32, with M -.33, JWN -.08, DDS -1.44, KORS -.07, SHLD -.09 (3.5%), JCP -.08, WMT -1.03, LB -.74, TJX -.22, TGT -1.08 DKS -.45 RL -3.28, and XRT -.49.

 

FAANG, stocks are mixed with all of the earnings listed above but last trades are GOOGL-26.22, AMZN +21.23, FB +6.46, AAPL 173.18 +5.36, NFLX -2.30, TSLA -4.31, NVDA -3.30, BA +4.10, BIDU -5.92, IBM -1.30, BABA -10.41(5%), and XLK +.15.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS +4.30, JPM +1.56, BAC +.54, C +.72, PNC +1.13, AIG +.25 and XLF +.34.

 

Bitcoin, was much lower again today trading down to 8480 before closing $9,090-910, and is currently trading $8910 -170. The stocks were lower with RIOT -1.44 (10%), MARA -.03, GBTC -2.48 (this is a trust that contains 1/10 Bitcoin worth approximately $900 and sells for a premium of 33%), OSTK -1.45, NETE -.78 (11%), LFIN- 2.28 (6%), TEUM-.05, LBCC -.08, KODK -1.00 (12.5%), XNET -.78, and the 2 ETFs BLCN -.27, and BLOK -.38.

 

OIL, $65.80 +1.07, held support at the $63.67 level and turned higher again, as I said last night, the lack of follow-thru to the downside, in the face of major fundamentally disappointing build in crude stocks simply refused to move lower. The next target for me is the high close of $66.14 and if we move over that tomorrow I think we will see some of the shorts have to cover ahead of the weekend.  The stocks were all higher yet again with only one loser, MPC -.63.  CVX was +.93, APC +1.32, COP +.54, BP +.60, PSX +.09, MRO +.31, RIG +.26, OAS +.26, OXY +1.13, XOM +2.27 (2.6%) and XLE +.78.

 

METALS, Gold traded lower overnight but opened higher this morning.  We came down to the $1,336 level again and closed up 5.30 at $1,344.30. If we continue to hold the mid-1330s, I think we will head back through $1,360 and take another profit out of the trade.  Silver was lower by $ .08 and copper followed suit up just .0135 to $3.209.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/31/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Earnings Continue, FB Reversal !!

FOR TRADING February 1st

 

Today’s action was initially driven by the general good feeling from the SOTU last night and the monumental earnings from BA.  Of this morning’s +200 open roughly $140 of it with BA trading +22.  We took the opportunity to buy a small position in the SPY puts and had a nice gain when the DJIA actually went negative. Market internals did not line up with the action with NYSE volume and A/D just 1:1 while over on the NASDAQ volume was 1:1 but A/D were almost 2:1 negative.

 

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, Earnings were good at BA and it traded as high as 360.97 and closed 354.37 (4%).  MSFT beat but is slightly lower.  FB reported and beat but had some tax-related charges and was trading -$8 until the conference call at which point it rallied to be trading +10, TSCO missed and lost $3.72 (4.9%), SFLY beat and was 68.12 +14.83 (27%). EBAY beat but has strong guidance and is +2.51 (5.2%).  One of the outstanding movers is T, which beat and is +1.40 in after- hours with good guidance, while QCOM beat but is unchanged.

 

Another group in the news is the chicken producers, cited and being sued by the DOJ on price fixing.  TSN is lower by 2.78 (3.5%), PPC -1.85 (6.3%) but down from 38 to 27.77, and SAFM -5.48 (4.1%) but also down from 176 to 126.90 since early December.

 

BIO/PHARMA, as was weak again with the exception of VRTX, which beat on earnings, cited some very positive results on trials and is trading $175 +8.46 (5%).  The rest of the group was lower with CELG -.59, BIIB -4.78, AMGN-5.22, REGN -13.12 (3.5%), ALXN -3.04, ISRG +3.83. ICPT -4.88 (7.2%), SRPT + .79, GILD -3.44 (3.9%), TEVA -.24, PBYI +1.10, LABU -5.61 (5.4%), and IBB -2.07 (1.78%).

 

 

RETAIL, with few exceptions was lower with M-.30, JWN -.10, KSS -1.43, DDS +1.00, KORS -.92, SHLD -.09, JCP -.04, WMT -1.18, GPS -1.15, TJX -.03, TGT +.12, RL -1.78, SIG +.04, and XRT -.67 (1.4%).

 

FAANG, stocks were higher with GOOGL+4.38, AMZN +14.85, FB, as noted above was $177 -10 and is now 194 + $7, AAPL +.18, NFLX -7.87, TSLA +7.53, NVDA +2.70, BA +17.27 (5%), BIDU +3.43, IBM +.08, BABA +4.07 and XLK +.66.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed with GS 1.04, JPM +.66, BAC +.18, C -.22, PNC +.10 and XLF +.14.

Bitcoin, was lower again today trading down to 9520 before closing $9,940-175, and is currently trading $10,060 +110. The stocks were mostly lower with RIOT -.38, MAMA +.32 (11%), GBTC -1.96 (11%), OSTK -2.10, LFIN -.21, TEUM +.04, LBCC +.28 (9.9%), KODK -1.15 (12.6%) and the 2 ETFs, BLCN -.05, and BLOK -.07.

 

OIL, $64.73 + .23, traded to support at the $63.67 level and turned higher.  As I said last night, this break should carry lower to test $63, and while it didn’t hit the round number, it reversed hard to close up on the day. We sold out SCO calls at $1.40 for a $ .45 profit and will wait until see where the new support or resistance develop.  Stocks followed the oil reversal with CVX+.24, APC +.30, COP +.15, BP +.08, PSX +.12, MPC +.14, MRO +.05, RIG -.15, OAS +.25, OXY +.21, XOM +.42, HES -.31 and XLE +.05.

 

METALS, Gold traded lower overnight but opened higher this morning.  We came down to the $1,332 level again and closed up 3.60 at $1,339. If we can hold the $1,330 level I think we will head back to $1,350-60 and take another profit out of the trade.  Silver was higher by $ .16 and copper followed suit up just $ .0065 at $3.1955.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/30/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

AMZN, BRKa, & JPM Attack Healthcare

 

FOR TRADING JANUARY 31st

 

Today’s action was initially driven by the announcement made jointly by Bezos, Dimon and Buffett that they were taking on U.S. healthcare in an effort to make it more affordable starting with their own employees.  That number is about 850,000 for these three and it is their intention to look for solutions that are not centered on profits.  BRKa is the only one with any insurance experience, although none of on health.  Bezos has been a serious “disrupter” and this move is no different since between the three they represent a formidable buyer of drugs and healthcare services.  For proof of how seriously this combination can attack the status quo one need only look at the trading in the drugs, insurance providers, and the pharmacy management services.  Insurers were the obvious losers with CI-14.60 (6.5%), AET -7.60 (4%), UHN -9.62 (3.9%, and 75 DJ pts), and HUM -8.93 (3%).  The next group of losers was the drug stocks with PFE, which beat earning this AM -1.17 (3%), MRK -1.17, BMY -.41 and LLY -1.51.  Not to be left out, the pharmacy management plans brought up the rear with CVS -3.33 (4%), WBA -3.79 (4.7%) and ESRX -2.28(2.8%).  The only winners were the hospitals with HCA +3.83 (3.9%), LPNT +1.55 (3.2%) and THC +.47 (2.4%).

 

Market internals were not as bad as I would have expected with the NYSE volume and A/D at 4:1 while the NASDAQ was 3:1 in both.  The averages were DJIA-362.59 (1.37), NASDAQ -64.03 (.86%), s&p500 -31.10 (1.1%), the Russell -15.69 (.96) and the Transports -148.82 (1.34%).

 

 

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, Earnings were good at MCD but the stock was -5.29 (3%) on concerns about the Dollar menu cutting profits, and PFE mentioned above -1.17, and after the close EA missed top and bottom but excellent guidance sent the stock +8.48 (7%), AMD also a miss traded lower by 1.40 but managed to come back to up .08.  Also IMMR, and IMMR + 2.66 yesterday continued higher again today to 10.74 (7.4%). Wynn continued lower in the morning but came roaring back in the afternoon closing +7.91 (4.8%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, as mentioned above, this sector ran red across the board with CELG -1.88, BIIB -7.37, AMGN-6.76, REGN -3.78, ALXN -4.79, ISRG -9.34, SRPT -3.19, ABBV -5.51, GILD -1.31, AGN -2.92, PBYI -3.16, LABU -6.96 (6.1%) and IBB -2.12 (1.8%).

RETAIL, was no better with the only green numbers coming from SHLD (still terminal) +.08 (3%) while M -1.06, JWN -1.48, KSS -2.07, KORS -.28, JCP -.11, WMT -1.60, LB -1.12, TJX -.48, TGT -1.90, RL -1.47 SIG -1.50 and XRT -1.09 (2.2%).

 

FAANG, stocks were lower with the notable exception of AMZN +20.32 and FB +1.17, GOOGL-8.07, AAPL -.88, NFLX -6.09, TSLA -3.75, NVDA -4.35, BA -2.67, BIDU -8.33, IBM -2.92, BABA -2.58 and XLK -.62.

 

FINANCIALS, were led lower by GS -3.38, JPM -1.09, BAC -.38, C-1.31, PNC -1.41 and XLF -.39.

 

Bitcoin, was lower again today trading below $9,700 again and closing $10,115 -1055 and currently $9,660 -455.  The stocks were lower and while still generally higher, nowhere near their highs.  RIOT was $6 in November and ran to $46.20 and closed today $14.28.  MARA was $1.33 and had a 3 day run to $10.03 closed today $2.90.  GBTC $7 to $38 closed 17.51, LFIN $5 to 142.82 in 4 days and $40 today, KODK, formerly EK, $3.05 to $13.28 in 1 day, closed $9, and BLCN (an ETF) $24.58 -.37 and BLOK also an ETF 20.96 -.35.  These ETFs are only days old, so buyer beware.

 

OIL, $64.50 -1.06 broke through support at the $65.00 level and continued lower.  As I said last night, this break should carry lower to test $63.  We are long the Inverse ETF (SCO) and the stocks were all lower today with CVX-2.96, APC-1.66, COP -1.40, BP -.55, PSX -1.66, MPC -1.02, MRO -.59, RIG -.59, OAS -.52, OXY -1.51, XOM -1.31, HES -2.29 and XLE -1.54 (2%).  We also own the SCO calls @ $.95 that closed $1.50.

 

METALS, Gold traded lower this morning and we went in to buy the 2/128 calls on the decline.  We came down to the $1,332 level and closed down $5 at $1,335.40.  If we can hold the $1,330 level I think we will head back to $1,350-60 and take another profit out of the trade.  Silver was also lower by $ .07 and copper followed suit down just $ .005 at $3.189.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/29/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

10YR NOTES DRIVE THE MARKET LOWER

 

FOR TRADING JANUARY 30th

 

Today’s action was driven by the 10 yr. notes crossing solidly through 2.7% closing up a bit at 2.692%.  It was just the excuse that the market needed to move lower, and lower it went.  The DJIA and the S&P 500 were both lower by .67% with the Dow -177.23 and S&P 500 -19.34 respectively while the NASDAQ was -39.27 (.52%), the Russell -9.95 (.62%) while the VIX gained 2.65 or 23%.  The biggest loser was one that we don’t generally mention, but the Utilities were -8.04 (1.2%) on news that it has had a “Death-cross” with its 50 day moving average crossing the 200 day to the downside.  Transports, up almost 60 (.6%) early turned lower and closed -10.73 (.01%).  Market internals were decidedly weak with NYSE volume 3:1 negative and A/D 4.5:1 down, and NASDAQ 1.5:1 and 2:1 respectively.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, Government numbers released this morning were so-so, with personal income and spending both in line at +.04%, but savings rates declined to the lowest since 2005.  Of course some of that went into investing so it’s not all disposable. Many of the Chinese companies were lower from overnight with SOHU -7.30 (16%), and BABA -2.42 (1.2%) but still +16% for the YTD.  Earnings for STX and LMT were both beats but only LMT was a big gainer +6.52 (1.9%) and 7% for the last 4 days.  KS was +8.17 (31%) on a buyout, as was DPS +21.42 (23%) on a deal by JAB to buy the maker of soft drinks in the biggest soft-drinks ever ($40B+).  Wynn continued lower by 16.81 (9.3%) and -$40 since Friday when a case for sexual harassment was brought against Steve Wynn. IMMR was +2.66 (36%) on news AAPL had settled a suit for patent infringement.  MXIM was a late rally on news it is in discussions to be bought and closed +7.26 (12.3%).  On the downside of takeover news, VMW, which traded $165 on Friday closed today @ $125-25 on news that Dell might be interested and selling itself (it owns 80% of VMW) to VMW as a method of coming public again.  Not everyone thinks it’s a great idea…

 

Last, in late news, was MET - $4 .30 (8%) on news that it is delaying its quarterly reports due to questions about reserves to be taken on some of its annuity products.  This is a similar move that GE had to deal with last week.

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed to lower with CELG -1.91, BIIB -9.43 (3.85%), AMGN +1.99, REGN +8.52 (2.3%), ALXN -1.30, VRTX -2.07, VRX +.14,NISRG +2.57, INCY -1.97, GILD +3.34 (3.9%), TEVA +.27, MYL -.22 PBYI +.20, LABU +2.69 and IBB +.46.

 

RETAIL, was also mixed with M -.09, JWN +.49, KSS -.41, SHLD +.03, JCP -.01, LB -.74, WMT +1.16, TJX +.32, TGT -.15, DKS -.23 RL -1.90, SIG -.567, and XRT -.14.

 

FAANG, stocks were mixed with GOOGL -1.08, AMZN +15.72 , FB -4.03, AAPL -3.60, NFLX +10 (3.6%),  TSLA +6.16, NVDA +3.67, BA -2.23, BIDU -6.55 (2.5%), IBM -.74, BABA -2.32, and XLK -.67.

 

FINANCIALS, were led higher by GS +4.34, JPM +.03, BAC +.07, C -.12, PNC +.55, AIG-.42 and XLF -.12.

 

Bitcoin, was barely changed today and is trading $11,200 +20 and the stocks were mostly lower with RIOT -1.83 (10.7%), MARA -.17, GBTC +1.06 (5.8%) after a 90:1 split, OSTK +2.95 (4%), NETE -.55, TEUM -.06, LBCC -.28(8.2%), KODK +.30, XNET -.78 (4.8%), and BLCN (ETF for the group) +.12.

 

OIL, $65.56 -.58 headed lower and found support at the $65.00 level.  It still looks like if it breaks Fridays low $64.91, it can test $63.  We are long the Inverse ETF (SCO) and the stocks were all lower today with CVX -2.71, APC -.69, COP -.73, BP -.56, PSX -2.34 (2.2%), MPC -1.59, MRO -.22, RIG -.16, OAS -.05, OXY -.94, XOM - .99, HES -1.38 and XLE -1.07 (1.4%).  We also own the SCO calls @ $ .95 closed $1.00.

 

METALS, Gold traded lower this morning and we went in to buy the 2/128 calls on the decline.  We came down to the $1,336 level and closed down $11.80 at $1,340.30.  If we can hold the $1,330 level I think we will head back to $1,350-60 and take another profit out of the trade.  Silver was also lower by $ .31 and copper followed suit down just $ .005 at $3.194.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 1/25/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Transports Pounded Again !!

 

FOR TRADING JANUARY 26th

 

Today’s action was another split affair with the DJIA higher but the rest of the market having problems staying higher.  The biggest losers again were the Transports, specifically the airlines, who are making plans to increase capacity and add new routes. LUV had earnings and beat but fell 1.99 (3.2%) on increased fuel expenses and the general weakness in the group. Transports were -176.80 (1.6%) while the DJIA was +140.67, NASDAQ -3.90 (.06%), S&P500 +1.71 (.06%) and the Russell +2.06 (.13%). The internals told the story with NYSE volume just 3:4 negative and A/D was 7:8 while the NASDAQ was negative with volume 4:5 down and A/D 13:16 negative. Also again, the Dow +260 at the highs was dominated by BA (58), GS (23), JNJ (16), and MMM (31). We closed out the balance of GLD calls and bought some SCO 2/20 calls.

 

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, earnings ruled the open with numbers from MMM and CAT.  Both had dramatic openings but CAT, after trying the high from last week, and missing it collapsed from $173 to $162.46 but managed to close $169.37 +1.03. MMM          was a different story but also sold off a bit and then ran up to $254.80 and while not at the peaks of the day finished well up on the range at $252.36 +4.67 (1.9%) and well up on the range for the day. The two biggest losers on earnings were NWL which gapped lower to $28 and then went lower to touch $23.85 and closed $24.78 -6.45 or 21%. Another loser was ETH, opening only slightly lower but moving down to $24.85 and closing $25.05- 1.90 or 7%.  After the close INTC reported a beat top and bottom line, gave good guidance and raised the dividend.  It closed $45.30 -.21 but is trading $47.50 +1.99 (4%).  SBUX missed and is $58.340-2.15 (3.7%), and WDC small beat but poor guidance and is $85 -3.16 (3.6%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed to higher with SMMT Summit Therapeutics getting positive results on muscular regeneration in a Muscular Dystrophy trial and closed $13.78 +1.57 (13%) after being as high as $15.90 (30%).  CELG +1.29, BIIB +6.19, AMGN -.42, REGN +8.52 (2.2%), VRTX -1.21, ISRG -4.48, SRPT +1.83, ABBV +3.17, GOILD -.46, TEVA +.68, MYL -.13, PBYI +3.40 (5.2%) but still down 28 on the week, LABU +3.14 and IBB +.87.

 

RETAIL, was lower with M-.62, JWN -.76, KSS -.91, DDS -1.00, KORS -.34, SHLD -.33 (10.5% and still terminal), JCP -.06, WMT +.82, TJZ +.01, TGT -.69, DKS -.96, and XRT -.16.

 

FAANG, stocks were mostly higher and last night’s discussion was right on, with many of these names making “one-day or KEY reversals”  that in normal times would bring about major tops,  but as I said “I’m not getting sucked in. It seems like it’s just one day inhale, one day exhale.  We resumed today with GOOGL +10.21, AMZN+19.96, FB +.80, AAPL -2.93, NFLX +8.39 (3.1%) and up almost $50 on the week, TSLA -4.39, NVDA +1.50, BA +8.59 (2.6%), BIDU -3.96, IBM +.10, BABA +3.15 and XLK +.16.

 

 

FINANCIALS, were higher again with GS +3.32, JPM +.17, BAC +.01, C +.05, PNC +.06 and XLF -.04.

 

Bitcoin, was barely changed today and is trading down $90 @ $11, 200 tonight. The stocks were mostly lower with RIOT -1.24 (6.4%), MARA -.05, GBTC +13.95 (.84%) OSTK -5.15 (6.5%), NETE -.33, LFIN-.57, TEUM -.11, FTFT +.56 (17%), LBCC -.29, KODK -.60 (5.9%), and XNET +.82.

 

OIL, $65.51-.10 continued to move higher and traded as high as $66.66 but when the President spoke about a strong US$ it came off and closed lower.  The stocks were lower with CVX -.74, APC +.06, COP -1.01, BP -.20, PSX -.46, MPC -.54, MRO -.53, RIG -.24, OAS -,25, OXY -.51, XOM -.06, HES -.29 and XLE -.61.

 

METALS, Gold traded to $1,365.40 today before the President started talking the US$ higher, and we sold the last of our GLD 2/127 calls @ $2.43 and they close $1.97. Today’s run up challenged the high in July 2016, as well as February 2014. Last night I said we were a bit overbought and today we got a pullback. Tonight the gold is trading $1,347 -15.90. Silver was stronger with a move to $17.70 but closed $17.61 + .13 but is down with the gold trading 17.34 -.275. Copper, which I have been discussing in this spot and yesterday called for a test of $3.10-3.12, had a solid bounce off that support and traded to $3.25 but closed $3.21 -.012 and is down slightly tonight.  I am still looking for a spot to buy the JJC.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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.

After the close 1/24/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Airlines and Tech Lose Steam

 

FOR TRADING JANUARY 25th

 

Today’s action was a split affair with the DJIA higher but the rest of the market having problems staying higher.  The biggest losers were the Transports, specifically the airlines, who are making plans to increase capacity.  This has been (aside from charging all those annoying fees) the way the airlines have slimmed down and been profitable, so the risk of overcapacity and fare wars looms large.  Oh, and by the way, oil up here at $66/barrel could easily be a headwind.  Transports were -159.61(1.4%) while the DJIA was +41.31, NASDAQ -45.23 (.61%), S&P500 -1.59 (.06%) and the Russell -11.09 (.69%).  The internals told the story with NYSE volume just 4:3 positive while A/D was 4:3 negative.  NASDAQ was negative with volume almost 2:1 down and A/D 2:1 negative.  We took some profits with 100% Up Rule triggers in GLD and XLF and took a small loss on some SPY puts.

 

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, earnings for LVS were a beat with a heavy influence from Macau and the stock was lower on the day but rallied to +2.36 (3%), FFIV also beat and traded +8.00 (5.6%) and LCRX another beat, and traded +6.40 (2.8%). WHR got a lift on news of tariffs on its competitors and was 178.97+7 (4%) but was light on revenues and is currently 174 -5.65.  The semiconductor stocks were down as a group and SMH was (ETF) was -2.20 or 2%.

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed to lower with CELG -1.60, BIIB -.17, AMGN -.40, REGN +2.69, VRTX +1.10, VRX -2.37 (10%), ICPT -1.65, CLVS -3.29 (5.1%) but still +10% on the week, PBIY -26 (28.4%) on yesterday’s news of an issue with its breast cancer drug. The IBB fell .91 (.8%).

 

RETAIL, were mixed to lower with M -.11, JWN -1.38, KSS -1.13, DDS -1.20, KORS +.31, SHLD -.27 (7.9%)and still terminal in my opinion, JCP -.14 (3.5%), WMT -.11, TJX -.07, TGT -1.23, DKS -1.10, RL +1.89, SIG -1.36, and XRT -.34 (.7%).

 

FAANG, stocks took a break and after making new highs closed slightly lower.  In normal times these moves would be considered “key” reversals, but after getting burned on this set-up several times over the last year or so, I’m not getting sucked in.  It seems like it’s just one day inhale, one day exhale.  The stocks were lower with the exceptions of NFLX +11.01 (4.4%) and BABA+3.37.  GOOGL -4.88, AMZN -3.04, FB- 2.21, AAPL -2.88, TSLA -5.24, NVDA -2.41, BA -.5, BIDU +.46, IBM -.99 and XLK -.53.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS +5.81, JPM +1.46, BAC +.23, C +.98, PNC +1.97 and XLF +.20.

 

Bitcoin, was slightly higher (+220) and is +185 tonight.  There were several heads of major banks asked at Davos about their position on Bitcoin, and they were pretty much aligned with the “It’s an interesting speculation but it’s not a currency or a store of value.”  The stocks were mostly lower and as pointed out here, there really isn’t much to see to access actual value.  RIOT -.45, MARA +.01, GBTC (the fund that contains 1/10 of a Bitcoin) was +17.40 sells for a premium of just 49%.  OSTK -1.85, LFIN -1.26, TEUM -.01, FTFT +.02, LBCC +.03, KODK -.70, XNET -.09 and IZEA -.16.

 

OIL, $65.61 +1.17 continues to grind higher and traded as high as $66.05 and is trading $66.17 +.56 tonight.  The stocks were mostly higher but some showed a bit of weakness, with PSX -2.21 (2%), MPC -1.53 (2.2%) and RIG -.22 (1.8%).  On the upside, CVX +.37, APC +.49, COP +.13, BP +.76, MRO +.06, OAS +.09, OXY +.14, XOM +.21 and XLE -.21.

 

METALS, Gold was sharply higher today trying the $1,360 area and closing $1,356.3 +19.60. These challenge the high in July 2016, as well as February 2014. If the US$ continues lower we should see new highs near $1,400. Silver was stronger with a move to $17.49 + .576, or 3.4% vs. the 1.4% in the gold, quite a catch up trade. Copper, which I have been discussing in this spot and yesterday called for a test of $3.10-3.12, had a solid bounce off that support and closed $3.2285 +.1165.  I am still looking for a spot to buy the JJC.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/23/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Earnings Surprises Didn’t Help PG or JNJ

 

FOR TRADING JANUARY 24th

 

Today’s action was a split affair with the DJIA moving lower on a couple of big DJIA names discussed below.  At the end of the day the DJIA was -3.79 (.01%) but NASDAQ was +52.26 (.71%), S&P 500 +6.16 (.22%), the Russell +5.54 (.35%) and the Transports were down $11.21 after a down open of -86.25.  Internals were pretty solid with volume 1:1 and A/D 1.5:1 on the NYSE and 2:1 and 4:3 respectively on NASDAQ.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, earnings abound again with some American names; JNJ -6.31 (4.3% and 43 DJ points) followed by PG -2.87 (3.1% and 19 DJ points) although they both beat estimates and issued solid guidance.  JNJ lost a patent case on its arthritis drug Remicade after losing another battle for its prostate cancer drug Zytiga last week.  As a bit of balance, TRV beat and gapped up for a gain of $6.91 (4.9% and 48 DJ points.  VZ also beat but after hitting $54.60 (+1.38) it fell back and closed $53.22 -.24.  After the close TXN reported inline numbers but fell $8.30 (7%) because guidance was a disappointment and the stock has run 15% YTD.

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed after yesterday’s solid performance.  As mentioned above, JNJ was a disappointment but there were others.  Most of the losses were minor, down less than a percent while CLVS +7% yesterday continued higher by $2.83 or another 4.6% today.  The biggest loser was PUMA Bio, PBYI, which received bad news from the CHMP, the EU board, that they viewed negatively the PUMA breast cancer drug and the stock was trading $68.05 -25.95 (29%).  As I said, the rest was mixed with CELG +1.64, BIIB -.89, AMGN -.34, REGN +5.77, ALXN +1.78, ISRG +5.61, INCY +.45, SRPT +1.37, GILD -.51, TEVA -.55, MYL -.79, LABU +5.81 (%.6%) and the IBB +1.29 (1.2%).

 

RETAIL, were also mixed with M +.01, JWN -.82, KSS +.66, DDS -.10, KORS +.93, SHLD -.04, JCP -.01, WMT +.45, TJX -.14, TGT -.46, LB +1.16 NKE +.75, SIG +1.41, and XRT -.06.

 

FAANG, stocks were clearly back to “risk-on” for a second day with GOOGL +11.14, AMZN +33.61(2.5%), FB +3.61, AAPL -.35, NFLX +22.40 (9.8%), TSLA +1.23, NVDA +4.51, BA -1.80, BIDU +3.01, IBM +3.39, BABA +8.03 (4.3%), and XLK +.15.

 

 

FINANCIALS, were mostly lower with GS -1.52, JPM -.32, BAC -.04, C-.09, PNC +.05 and XLF -.05.  We sold half of our C 2/2 78 calls @ $1.32 and we are still holding the XLF 2/29 calls within a few cents of the 100% Up trigger.

 

Bitcoin, was lower breaking $10,000 again but rallied to close $11,000+785 and is trading +$130 now.  This is the kind of bounce that can carry to the $12,000 to $13,000 resistance.  Since I don’t buy into the whole “Bitcoin is a currency” argument I can only look at it technically.  The stocks are tough to figure out since there is little or no REAL information on a lot of them, and the moves get excessive in both directions.  With today’s bounce they were mixed with RIOT +.72, MARA -.01, GBTC -33 (2%), OSTK +3.45 (4.5%), NETE -.52 (6.1%), LFIN -3.45 (7.4%), TEUM -.12, FTFT -.04, CNET +.39 (10.4%), KODK -.70, IXEA -.10 and XNET +.55.

 

OIL, $64.47 +.90 continues to grind higher and traded as high as $64.88 (+1.31) and today’s close was the best level since November 2014 when it was $66.15 and was lower by almost 20% that month.  The stocks were mixed with CVX -1.67, APC +.22, COP -.62, BP -.15, PSX -.11, MPC -.03, MRO -.18, RIG -.29, OAS +.06, OXY -.21, XOM +.05, HES +.15 and XLE -.36

 

METALS, Gold was higher today trying the $1,341 area and closing $1,336.70 +4.80 and is just below the closing high from 4 days ago @ $1,339.20. If the US$ continues lower we should see new highs ($1,358 Sept.2017) with a high close of $1,347.30.  Silver was lower closing -$ .076, and Copper, which I have been discussing in this spot and yesterday called for a test of $3.10-3.12, was lower by $ .08 at $3.11.  We’ll have to see if it holds here.  I am looking to buy JJC, a new Copper ETF.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/22/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

NFLX Surprises Again !!

 

FOR TRADING JANUARY 23rd

 

Today’s action was a great victory for the longs as we opened and were down as much as 75 or so in the DJIA.  The other markets did not follow through and before noon, before the Shutdown vote was actually made there were statements that the Senate had enough to reopen the government.  By the end of the day the rally was in full swing with the DJIA +142.88 (.55%), NASDAQ +71.65 (.98%), S&P 500 +22.67(.81%) and the Russell +7.54 (.47%).  Even the Transports, down $55 at the open closed +52.37 (.46%). Market internals started off soft but by the close of the day we were 2:1 volume and 9:5 A/D on the NYSE while NASDAQ was 3:1 volume and 1.5:1 A/D.  These are pretty healthy numbers for a market making new all-time highs.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, earnings abound again with NFLX the star reporting a major bump in subscribers worldwide.  The stock was trading $227.58 +7.12 (3.23%) and has traded $249.95 and is currently $248.60 + an additional $21.02 (10%).  As you can tell, guidance was very positive.  TD Ameritrade, AMTD also reported and the stock had closed 55.88+.71 and is currently $57.49 for a gain of $1.44 (2.5%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, started the day off with 2 new deals.  JUNO, discussed here last week moved from $45 to $68 on speculation and gapped up today to $86 on the news that CELG was buying the company for $87 in cash for a total $9Billion price tag.  The other deal was BIVV bought by Sanofi (SAN.F) for $11.6Billion.  This deal was considered to be an over-pay and (SAN.F) is trading lower.  Another company in the group, ARRY had some impressive results in a Phase 3 trial and closed $ 15.56 +2.42 (18.4%).  As I’ve discussed for the last 3 weeks, this has been a forgotten group.  My watch list contains about 20 names and every single one was green today with CELG +.35, BIIB +5.23, AMGN +3.61, REGN +4.33, ALXN +2.62, VRTX +3.94, VRX +.57, ICPT +4.62 (8%), INCY +.92, SRPT +2.17, CLVS +3.91 (6.8%), ABBV +1.85, GILD +.43, TEVA +.39, MYL +.91, AGN +7.67 (4.3%), ONCE +6.09 (11.8%), and the ETFs LABU 3x leveraged +15.47 (17.5%) and IBB +3.52 (3.1%).

 

RETAIL, were mostly higher with M +.24, JWN +.82, KSS +.63, DDS +.49, KORS -.16, SHLD -.18 (4.9%), WMT +.86, TJX +.57, TGT +.48, LB +1.35 RL +2.11, and XRT +.61 (1.2%).

 

FAANG  stocks were clearly back to “risk-on” with GOOGL +24.10, AMZN +40.92 (3%), FB +4.82, AAPL -1.24, NFLX mentioned above +29 (13%), TSLA +2.38, NVDA +5.64, BA +.91, BIDU -1.48, IBM +.04, BABA +.35 and XLK +.90 (1.3%).

 

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS +5.38 (biggest Dow mover @ +37 points), JPM +1.32, BAC +.23, C +.29, PNC +.47 and XLF +.23.  We are close to 100% Up Rule trigger on XLF 2/29 calls bought @ $ .52 and closed today $ .96.  Sell half @ $1.04 OB.

 

Bitcoin, was lower today closing $10,200 -$1,200. It’s trading unchanged tonight but has bounced off $10,000. The stocks were mostly lower with RIOT -.61, MARA -.15, GBTC -82 (4.6%), OSTK -.20, NETE +.03, LFIN +3.37(7.8%), TEUM -.01, FTFT -.49 (12%), LBCC -.36 (7.7%), KODK +1.40 (14%), IZEA -.03 and XNET -1.37 (8.3%).

 

OIL, $63.57 +.26 continues in a holding pattern but feels a bit heavy to me.  I bought 300 SCO (3X inverse ETF) @ $21.70 and I’m looking for a break below $62.87 for a correction.  The trade is relatively low risk, but I am keeping a very close eye on it. But I won’t hesitate to sell them on a break to the upside. The stocks were universally higher with CVX +1.18, APC +2.52, COP +.88, BP +1.06, PSX +1.07, MPC +1.24, MRO +.68, RIG +.34, OAS +.31, OXY +2.01, XOM +1.10, HES +.86 and XLF +1.77 (2.3%).

 

METALS, Gold had a short range inside day closing $1,331.90 -$1.20.  We had an order in the GLD 2/127 calls and paid $1.06 for these (closed $1.26) while GLD closed $126.65+.23.  Silver was also lower @ $16.99 -.047 while copper was +$ .01.  The copper still has too much speculative interest but I would certainly buy a move to $3.10 to $3.12.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/18/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

IBM Beats, No One Cared

FOR TRADING JANUARY 19th

 

Today’s action was remarkably “normal” with markets only slightly higher followed by lower followed by a close near the middle.  DJIA -97.84 (.37%), NASDAQ -2.23, S&P 500 -4.35 and the Russell -9.93(.63%). The 10-yr notes closed up at 2.62%, a new recent high and the just a couple of Dow stocks making up the whole loss.  The big leader, BA, took a break and accounted for $74.98, GS, HD, and MMM were all drags today.  Market internals on the NYSE were 2:1 down volume and almost 3:1 A/D, while over on the NASDAQ volume was actually slightly better than 1:1 while the A/D was 9:5 to the negative.  Fortunately, GE has a very small effect on the Dow since it fell to $16.77- .58 or another 3.4% to a new 6 year low. It has fallen from $19.29 (13.5%) in the past week.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, earnings abound again with the notable first time in 24 quarters IBM actually beat by a penny and revenues grew 4%.  The stock, which has had a run from $139 in August to a recovery high of $171(23%) is currently down $8.05 (5%).  AXP also reported with a loss in the quarter, suspended its buy back and is currently down $2.50.  Other earnings were posted by ESIO +4.26 (19%), AA with a loss was -$4 (7%), ALB missed and closed -$9 (7%) after being down $14, and LIVE beat and was +2.38 (16%) after being up as much as $6.

 

RETAIL, rebounded again today with slight gains across the board. M +.26, JWN +.25, KSS +.26, DDS +.13, SHLD +.16 (4.5%), JCP-.01, WMT +1.50, TJX +.67, TGT +1.03, UAA --.18, RL +3.92 (3.7%), and XRT +.13.

 

FAANG , stocks were generally lower with GOOGL -4.16, AMZN -2.92, FB +1.95, AAPL unchanged, NFLX +2.50, TSLA -2.05, NVDA -.63, BA -11.32 (3.2%), BIDU -.94, IBM -6 (earnings), BABA +.28, and XLK +.12.

 

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed with GS -2.79, JPM +.12, BAC +.25, C -.22, PNC -1.21,

AXP (earnings) -2.16, and XLF -.10.

 

Bitcoin, was higher today gaining $970 to move back to $11,790 but is lower tonight @ $11270 -520. The stocks were generally higher with RIOT +2.04, MARA +.28, GBTC +221 (13%), OSTK -4.40, BTSC +.02, NETE -.15, LFIN+6.08 (15.8%), TEUM -.01, COGT +.25, LBCC +.30, KODK +.65 and XNET +.32.

 

OIL, $63.89-.03 continues in a holding pattern but feels a bit heavy to me.  I bought 300 SCO (3X inverse ETF) @ $21.70 and I’m looking for a break below $62/87 for a correction.  The trade is relatively low risk, but I am keeping a very close eye on it.  The stocks were universally lower with CVX -.77, APC -.87, COP -.10, PSX -.87, MPC -.49, MRO -.15, RIG -.26, OAS -.10, OXY -.47, XOM -.78, HES -.18 and XLE -.76.

 

METALS, Gold was lower overnight and followed thru today closing $1,327-12, with Silver following the lead to $16.954 -.212, while Copper was + .01 at just under $3.20.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/17/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

GE, Still Viable and Valuable ??

FOR TRADING JANUARY 18th

 

Today’s action show everyone that “sell the rips and buy the dips” is still the order of the day.  Today’s all-time highs were pretty spectacular when viewed beside yesterday’s reversal with no follow thru this morning. DJIA +322.79 (1.25%), NASDAQ +74.59 (1.03), S&P500 +26.14 (.94%), the Russell +13.69 (.87%) and the Transports the only laggard +32 (.02%).  Internals were the reversal of yesterday with both volume and A/D 2:1 positive. All that said, the gains today were clearly on the back of BA, IBM, HD, MMM, and UNH.  BA was 108 Dow points all by itself.  Call me crazy, but this is a market that I will be keeping position sizes small and will step aside whenever I feel uncomfortable.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, as I mentioned both here and on my radio show, GE has some real problems that fall into the category of “unknowable.”  This is the same scenario as the financials found themselves in 2011-2012 when the government was using the big banks as ATMs.  Every couple of days Treasury, or DOJ, or the SEC was announcing another fine or special charge that cost the banks billions of dollars (BAC paid $80B alone).  I would hear from talking heads and analysts quote the discount to book value or tangible book as the way to value these companies, and I would think, “How can they quote book when tomorrow there may be another multi-billion charge”?  This is the way I’m looking at GE.  Yesterdays $6.2 Billion charge was double expectations and those go back to operations in 2004-5, and frankly, how do we know there were other charges to surface.  For this reason I can’t get behind GE.  While they are still a manufacturer and seller of goods, the charges that will come from the sales of some of those divisions are a huge question mark.

 

RETAIL, rebounded with slight gains across the board. M +.32, JWN +.79, KSS +1.10, DDS +1.58, SHLD -.01, JCP +.03, WMT +2.00, TJX -.01,TGT +1,86, LB -.04 UAA -.01, RL +1.63 SIG -1.15 and XRT +.46.

 

FAANG, it was a mixed day with some follow thru and some gains.  GOOGL +8.40, AMZN -10.35, FB -.84, AAPL +3.01 after being lower all day until it made the announcement of 20,000 new jobs over 5 years and bonuses for employees and paying the treasury $38Billion in penalties for bringing back its foreign funds, NFLX -4.03, TSLA +7.04, NVDA +4.24, BA +16.14 (4.8%), BIDU -1.99, IBM +4.95 (3%, earnings tomorrow after the close), BABA +1.43, and XLK +.95.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed to higher with GS -4.71 (1.8%) on earnings miss, JPM +.68, BAC -.04, but on the highs of the day, C +.34 we bought some calls near the close, PNC 1.97, and XLF +.07, and we are long these also.

 

Bitcoin, was lower again today breaking to the $10,000 level before closing $10,830 – 380 but ¾ up on the range.  Tonight it’s moving slightly higher @ $11,370 +540.  The stocks were lower with OSTK the only winner on my watch-list +5.40 (7.6%).

 

OIL, has held in really well consolidating its gains.  A look at the daily chart shows several legs higher over a day or 2 followed by 3-4 trading days of testing the move followed by another leg higher.  The difference here is that the daily ranges are bigger and while it may be topping (we own a small position in the inverse ETF) we could just as easily see another break towards $67-68.  The point I’m keying off is a close under $62.87.

 

 

I want to take a few minutes to go over some of the rules so that new subscribers are up to date with our methodology.

 

Rule One: 100% Up Rule, Anytime a position moves up 100% you MUST sell half.

Rule Two:  50% Down Rule, Anytime a position loses 50% you MUST liquidate.

Rule Two A:  If you have sold half on a 100% Up Rule you should raise the stop to                  a “cost plus commissions” stop so that you preserve the 2nd portion gains.

 

Options description for ALERTS:

All regular options expire on the 3rd Fridays of the month.  They are signified as the stock symbol + the # of the month and the price.. GRPN 2/6 is Groupon Feb. $6 option.

There are other stocks that have options that expire weekly, for example we bought on alert this afternoon C (Citigroup) 2/2 78 calls @ $1.02.  Those are signified as C 2/2 78 calls.  They expire on February 2nd.

Position size: $100M is the $100,000 stock and option account,

                         Options is the $10,000 options only account.

 

I hope this makes clear these issues.  If not, feel free to email me any questions at INFO@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/16/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

A Pullback ???

FOR TRADING JANUARY 17th

 

Today’s action was typical of a market that is finally running out of rocket fuel.  I wouldn’t call it “the” top, but it may be a short-term pullback.  We sold our AAPL calls (first half @ $3.20 on 100% Up Rule) and the balance at $4.27.  They closed $1.97.  We also got stopped out of a few longs on 50% down rule with losses of under $210, and bought some SPY 1/278 puts and lost half of those to 100% Up Rule 2 hours later for a nice gain and we are holding the second half for tomorrow.  In watching the tape (like the dinosaur I am) I was surprised by the number of stocks down 8-10% without news, just profit taking.  The market internals were solidly 2:1 down on both volume and A/D on both markets.  Any market that can move from the 25,000 level to 26,000 in 7 trading days deserves a rest.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, earnings continue and surprises abound.  C beat some drastically lowered expectations and rallied slightly after the Friday numbers on WFC and PNC and JPM all beat.  Jamie Dimon said the new tax laws will mean better profits for JPM.  CSX reported after the close and while beating on bottom line ($.42 vs .36 est.) but missed on revenues and fell about $1.00.  Away from earnings we had JUNO +$19.50 after the close on news that CELG is a buyer, and lastly, GE surprised everyone with an additional $6.2Billion charge (expected to be $3B) drove the stock lower by .55 (2.9%) after being down 4.5%.

 

RETAIL, was lower with not a single name that I follow showing any green.  UAA was downgraded from neutral to underperform and was $13.83 – 1.29 (8.5%), M -.97, JWN -1.64. KSS -.46, DDS-2.19, SHLD -.08, JCP -.24 (5.9%), WMT-.07, TJX-1.77, TGT 1.95 and XRT-1.02 (2.1%).

 

FAANG, it was a day of reversals pretty much across the board with GOOGL high 1148 close 1127-2.76, AMZN high 1339, close 1299 -6.20, fb high 181.75 close 178 -1.35, AAPL high 179.39 close 175.75 -1.34, NFLX high 226.07, close 220.43 -.80, TSLA +3.28, NVDA , high 227 close 218.75 -4.23, BA high 347.73 close 335.32 -.90, BIDU +4.74, IBM 163.87 +.73, BABA high 191.74 close 182.65 -5.14, and XLK -.26.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed to higher with GS +1.21, JPM-.37, BAC +.13, C +.21, PNC +1.17, and XLF -.08.

 

METALS, Gold, closed up $2.9 after a solid day with higher high and low.  It is up another $6.9 tonight at $1,344.  We are on track to test $1350-60. Silver was also higher by $ .04 and tonight is $ .12 higher at $17.30.  It continues to underperform but continues to trend higher.  Copper tried the upside again but couldn’t hold the gains and finished unchanged and near the lows of the day.

 

Bitcoin, was lower again today breaking to the $11,000 level before closing $11,010 - $2,700., and is trading another $350 higher tonight after trading $10,000. The stocks were lower with RIOT -3.63, MARA -.49, GBTC -234, OSTK -8.45, NETE -1.71, LFIN -4.53, KODK -.70 and IZEA -.43.  These were all down between 10-15%.

 

BIO/PHARMA, a group that I have discussed in the Weekly Strategies that seems to have trouble having a “group” move.  The stocks were generally mixed with CELG -2.25, BIIB +.05, AMGN -.53, REGN +3.25, ALXN +1.77, VRTX -2.22, ISRG +1.03, ICPT -1.77, INCY -1.77, SRPT -1.37 GILD +1.08 and IBB -.68.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the day off 1/15/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

FOR TRADING JANUARY 16th

 

Good afternoon everyone.  There wasn’t any market today but there was action in the electronic session for the futures.  They only traded until 12:00 PM Central time and they were mostly higher due to some continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar.

 

So, here’s the list:

 

US$ down against all other currencies

Bitcoin: CBOE (1/ contract)   $14,042 +232

                   CME (5/ contract)   $13,920 -50

 

Oil $64.81 +.51

Bonds / notes: all a few ticks lower

 

S & P 500 +5.75

NASDAQ  +5.00

DJIA  +136

 

GOLD  + $5.60

Silver   +$ .229

Copper  + $ .425

 

I can’t tell you what is up in the DJIA that is causing the outsized gains there but we’ll know first thing in the morning.

 

Remember that the futures open again tonight and can further the gains or sell them off between now and the morning opening in NY.

 

Hope all had a good long weekend.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 1/11/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Another Monster Day

FOR TRADING JANUARY 12th

 

Today’s action was a slow build early and then a quick run into the close.  The market was dominated by move higher in BA (53 Dow points), CAT (23), CVX (26), and HD (20) while there were only 4 DJIA stocks lower.  Market internals were solid with NYSE $:1 volume and 3.6:1 A/D, while over on the NASDAQ we were 3:1 for both sides.  The DJIA was +2.5 (.81%), NASDAQ +58.21 (.81%), S&P 500 +19.33 (.70%) and the Russell +26.99 (1.7%) and the biggest winner, DJ Transports +253 (2.3%).

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, earnings continue to surprise to the upside, KBH continued higher today after the report last night and finished the day $38.58 +4.23 (12.3%), DAL beat and closed $58.52 +2.66(4.7%).  On the Crypto group MGI announced a partnership with IBM, Stellar, and Ripple and traded up to $13.74 before closing $12.18+.06 on the news. The solar stocks also moved higher with FSLR +6.63 (9.5%), SPWR +.98 (11.5%), and CSIQ +.37 (2.2%).  This group gets a boost after the surge in oil as it becomes a financial alternative to higher prices, and also in the rotation of groups that haven’t had major moves yet.

 

Oil, $63.80+.23 after peaking today with a print at $64.77. I’m not using the word peaking to denote that the move is over, just that it has had a great run and a move back to $62-62.50 would be a normal and expectable pullback.  The stocks were all higher with CVX leading the way +3.90 (3% and 26 Dow points), APC +3.09 (5.5%), COP +1.55, BP =.35, PSX +.29, MPC +.74, MRO +.70, RIG +.32, OAS +.53 (6%), OXY +1.57, XOM+.90, HES +1.72 and XLE +1.63 (2.1%).

 

RETAIL, was universally higher with M +.66, JWN+.89, KSS +2.06, DDS +2.53, SHLD +.02, JCP +.09, WMT +.53 with a raise for employees and a bonus of $1000 for 20 year employees (there are over 80,000 of them), LB +1.68, TGT+3.28(4.6%), TJX +.61, and XRT +1.21(2.6%).

 

FAANG, it was a quiet day for this group with the exception of AMZN +22.35 (2%), GOOGL +1.91, FB +-.02, AAPL +1.00, NFLX +4.73, TSLA +2.92, NVDA ++.31, BA +7.54 (2.3%), BIDU +1.21, IBM -.13, BABA -1.05 and XLK +.25.  These names are only slightly underperforming the rest of the market after being the darlings, and the rotation will come back to them.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed to higher with GS +.97, JPM +.75, BAC +.12, C -.09, PNC +2.38 and XLF +.14.  We sold our $.42 calls at $ .99 and rolled forward to the 2/29 calls @ $ .52, and they closed $ .56.  This group has several earnings reports tomorrow, so we’ll see how the higher rates guide guidance going forward.

 

METALS, Gold, closed up $3.2 after an “inside” day.  Even though it is not the high trade in this consolidation, it is the highest close since the decline in September. Silver continued to underperform and closed $16.96 -$ .069 Copper tried the upside to $3.25 but closed mid-range and down the day.

 

Bitcoin, was lower again today breaking the $13,000 barrier before closing $13,425 - $1,055, and is trading another $350 lower tonight. The stocks were lower with the exception of OSTK +.30, RIOT -1.93, MARA -.14, GBTC-253 (13%), NETE +.18, LFIN-5.27 (11%), TEUM-.05, FTFT-.15, CNET +1.18 (24%), LBCC -.08, and yesterday’s big winner, KODK which traded as high as $13.28, closed the day $8.40-2.30 (21.5%) and is $8.10 tonight -.30.

 

BIO/PHARMA, a group that I discussed in the Weekly Strategies this week that has been mixed.  It amazes me that these stocks haven’t been putting together multiple gains or losses.  Today was no different with CELG -.76, BIIB -3.65, AMGN -1.21, REGN +1.80, VRTX +1.02, ISRG-2.39, ICPT-.29 INCY -2.85 (we bought @ $100.63), SRPT-.54 MYL +2.32 (5.3%), LABU +1.79 (3x leveraged ETF), and IBB +.32.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/10/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

FOR TRADING JANUARY 11th

 

Today’s action looked better than I think it actually was.  The DJIA closed well off the lows with the DJIA -16.67, NASDAQ -10.01, S&P 500 -3.06, Russell -.30 and the Transports the standout + 10.  The market internals were a different story with volume running roughly 1:1 while the A/D were 9:5 negative on the NYSE and 11:10 NASDAQ. Even BA couldn’t bail us out today.

 

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, we had earnings from KBH after the close and they beat causing a rally from its close $34.35 to $35.99.  Last was $35.55 +1.20 (3.5%).  LEN missed but guidance was better and after moving lower (65.35) it finished the day $67.26 +1.59 (2.4%). UAL had good numbers and finished $73.08 +4.60 (6.7%) and DAL who reports tomorrow followed the lead and was +1.69 (3.1%).

 

Oil, $63.57 +.61 gapped up a bit to $63.09 and traded as high as $63.67, a new recovery high and closed strong.  The stocks were mixed again with CVX +.82, APC -.11, COP -.28, BP +.13, PSX +.36, MPC +.51, MRO -.14, RIG -.23, OAS +.11, OXY -.64, XOM-.69, HES +.54 and XLE -.09.  This sector looks vulnerable and I believe we will have another pullback, and I will probably buy some SCO (3X short oil ETF).

 

RETAIL, was mostly higher with JWN reporting good numbers for the last quarter and SHLD having a declined between 16-17% but being able to raise $100MM and looking for an additional $200MM. The positive for this company, which I still think is terminal was a savings of $200MM from store closings.  Using this business model, the company will only survive once it closes all of its stores. The biggest loser was SIG, which we have been short on and off for the last 2 years from $134 to a low of $46 last June, and long a few times for counter-trend rallies. SIG was $52.69 -3.90 (6.9%) and looks like it may make a new lower low.  This company has a dramatically bad reputation, questionable accounting for their internal financing and the dubious distinction of having the most consumer complaints of any U.S. company.  The rest of the group was higher with M +.90, JWN +1.31, KSS +1.73, DDS +2.39,JCP +.23 (6.2%), WMT -.72, TJX +.77, TGT +1.63 and XRT +.33.

 

FAANG, it was a quiet day for this group with GOOGL -2.85, AMZN +2.12, FB unchanged, AAPL -.03, NFLX +3.21, TSLA +.61, NVDA +2.51, BA +2.52, BIDU -5.78, IBM +.57, BABA -1.18 and XLK -.23.

 

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with the 10yr trying 2.6% this morning on the news that China making statements about stopping buying U.S. treasuries.  The 10yr had a strong auction today and the yields came back in to the 1.55 level.  The stocks were higher from the open and stayed that way most of the day.  There was some minor profit taking but they were all higher at the close.  GS +.39, JPM +1.30, BAC +.29, C +.44, PNC +2.18, and XLF +.29.  Our position in the XLF calls closed $ .90 ($.42 cost).

 

METALS, Gold, as I discussed last night, I was looking for a pullback to $1,300-1,310. Unfortunately the metal moved lower to $1,308 while we slept and by 5:00AM it had climbed straight back to $1,328 before closing here $1,319 +$5.60   Silver rallied also but closed barely changed @ $17.03 +.02. Copper tried the upside to $3.27 but closed ¾ down the range.

 

Bitcoin, was quietly lower all day and after testing $13,560 it closed $14,490 – 300. The stocks were mixed with RIOT -1.01, MARA +.24, GBTC -199, OSTK -1.15, NETE -.05, LFIN -1.88, IMUC -.005, TEUM +.34, FTFT +.01, COGT +.50 (10%), LBCC -.25 and the new addition, KODK +4.10 (60%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, a group that I discussed in the Weekly Strategies this week that has been mixed.  CELG +.14, BIIB +.36, AMGN -.52, VRTX +1.37, ICPT +1.59, INCY +.31, SRPT +2.95, ONCE +1.37  and the standout, ISRG +26.16 (6.6%) an alltime new high of guidance for the coming year.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/9/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

FOR TRADING JANUARY 10th

 

Today’s action looked better than I think it actually was.  The DJIA closed mid-range and up $102.80 (.41%) and the S&P500 +3.58 (.13%), NASDAQ +6.19, while the Russell -1.71 and the Transports +20.  On the NYSE the volume was slightly negative while the A/D was 1.5:1 negative.  Over on the NASDAQ both were right near 1:1, but just negative.  Add to that the gains on the DJIA was over half BA, a great company, but one that was +90% in 2017 and another 8% this first 2 weeks of the year.

 

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, Here’s a name that most people thought was gone forever that sprang to life today, Eastman Kodak, you may remember that it was a Dow stock with the symbol EK.  I fell on hard times when it, like Bell and Howell didn’t see the writing on the wall and didn’t believe the threat of digital photography.  Bell & Howell now makes flashlights and EK (now KODK) has thrown its hat into the Blockchain ring.

The company emerged from bankruptcy in 2011 and the stock, reissued @ $26.50 and started today down about 90% at $3, made its Crypto-currency debut for their IMAGES Platform. Low and behold, Wall Street noticed and it ran to $9.50 and is trading $8.70 + 5.60 or just 180%. The company used to have 140,000 employees and was worth $30 Billion, current market cap $300Million.

 

Oil, $62.96+1.23 after trading as high as $63.48, above the highs of 2015, we closed strong.   This has moved 140+% from its $26 low in February 2016.  I have stayed away from the short side of oil since I took an $84 loss on a day trade on 11/3/17 at the $51 level. I’m taking a hard look at the short side and will probably trade SCO (3X short ETF) in the very near future.  The stocks were mixed today since these companies are more than just oil price sensitive with CVX -.69, APC+.33, COP +.47, BP -.16, PSX -.34, MPC -.44, MRO +.14, RIG +.23, OAS +.15, OXY -.30, XOM -.08, HES +.26 and XLE -.04.

 

RETAIL, was mixed with the notable exception of TGT +1.98 on earnings while M +.22, JWN -.97, KSS+.18, DDS +.99, SHLD (terminal) -.31 (9%), WMT -1.24, TJX -.15, LB another 1.26, and UAA-.87 (5.4% on a downgrade) and XRT -.49.

 

FAANG, were also mixed today with the focus being on BA and some of the other industrials.  GOOGL -2.90, AMZN +5.86, FB -.69, AAPL-.35, BFLX-3.15, TSLA -3.97, NVDA -.50, BA +8.05, BIDU +3.18, IBM +.43, BABA +.37 and XLK -.17.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with the 10yr solidly over 2.5%, even with the downgrades of GS, JPM, and MS.  GS was +2.53, JPM+.51, BAC +.16, C+ .78, PNC+2.32 and XLF +22.  We also sold half of our XLF1/28 calls (bot @ $ .42) at $ .71.

 

METALS, Gold, as discussed last night has pulled back toward the $1,300-1,310 range. It traded down to $1,309 before rebounding to close $1,313 -7.  I’m still looking to find a buy point but it will have to hold $1,300-1,315. Silver followed the gold down to $16.94 and rallied to close today @ $17.01. Copper tried the upside to $3.26 but closed near the lows.  It looks to me it could now test $3.18-3.20.  We bought some SCCO 1/48 puts @ $ .45 to take advantage of the move.

 

Bitcoin, was lower and after an inside day with its typical $1,000 range. Tonight it is quiet with a range of $14,650 to $13,980 and is currently $14,270 -540.  The stocks were mixed with RIOT +.87, MARA -.14, GBTC -44.73, OSTK -5.65 (6.5%), BTSC -.02, NETE +.36, LFIN-2.96 (5.7%), TEUM -.42 (16%), FTFT -.08, COGT +.05, CNET-.15, LBCC +.94 (19%), and our new entry, KODK which closed $6.80 is currently $9.10 +6 (193%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, a group that I discussed in the Weekly Strategies this week that has been consolidating had some dramatic moves based on information shared at the JP Morgan Conference.  CELG +1.31, BIIB +6.71, AMGN +2.78, REGN -3.87, VRX-.81, ISRG +5.74, my favorite, INCY -4.52 and we bought the stock in the $100M account @ $100.63.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/8/018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JANUARY 9th

 

Today’s action was split between the DJIA -12.94 after a move higher at the open and down as much as about $60, S&P500 +4.56 (.17%), NASDAQ +20.83 (.29%), the Russell +1.80 (.12%) and the DJ Transports the clear leader + $84.79 (.78%).   Market internals were positive with NYSE and NASDAQ volume slightly better than 1:1 and A/D 5:3 NYSE and a solid 1:1 NASDAQ.  Pretty good numbers for an overbought general market.  Bio / Pharma got battered with the opening of the important JP Morgan conference.  This is usually the place that outlooks get reported and M&A get announced.  It was pretty ugly, but I will discuss this in the Sector review.                 .

 

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, the start of earnings season is again upon us (seems like it never ends) and today’s disaster du jour was GPRO with Nick Woodman, CEO trying to make it look better than it is, and failing in dramatic fashion.  For those of us who can recall Welcome Back Kotter, I’d never count on anyone named Mr. Woodman.  He gave poor guidance, a paring of workforce, and put the company up for sale.  Needless to say, even with its rally off the low of $5.04 to close $6.56 - .96(12.8%) it wasn’t a pleasant day for shareholders.  Woodman controls the voting stock (which BTW he sold a sizable piece in the $90s) and the stock has never looked back.  Five Below, FIVE, was also negative on guidance and broke its uptrend and was – 5.42 (7.5%), and Dave $ Busters (PLAY), a company I didn’t understand the attraction to 10 years ago also issued terrible guidance and closed on its low -12.58 (23%).  This growth oriented market, there is no forgiving bad numbers.

 

Oil, $61.73 +.29 had an inside day and they “couldn’t take it down early so they took it up”).  We are in an area of overhead resistance from the small consolidation on the move lower (April-June 2015).  The stocks were slightly higher with CVX +.63, APC =.37, COP +1.02, BP -.02, PSX -.10, MPC +.05, MRO +.08, RIG +.22, OAS -.05, OXY +.64, XOM +.39, HES +.33, and .45.

 

RETAIL, was mixed with M -.04, JWN +.02, KSS +2.54 (4.7%), DDS +1.74, SHLD -.19, JCP +.11, WMT +1.60, LB -1.72 adding to its decline from $63 to $48.64 (24%), URBN on news it grew 2% was a disappointment and fell to $28.85 before coming back a bit to $31.50 -2.24 (7%), TGT +.63, TJX -1.72 (3.4%) DKS -.70 and XRT -.06.

 

FAANG, were also mostly higher with GOOGL +1.71, AMZN +17.73, FB +1.16, AAPL -.45, NFLX +1.80, TSLA +19.78 (6.2%), NVDA +6.10, BA +1.31, BIDU +5.68, IBM +1.16, BABA -.40 and XLK +.25.

 

FINANCIALS, were lower with GS -3.75, JPM +.28, BAC -.21, C -.68, PNC +.27 and XLF -.07.

 

METALS, Gold like the oil was an inside day where they just couldn’t get going in either direction. It traded down to $1,315 before rebounding to close $1,320 -2.00.  I’ll have to find a buy point but it will have to hold $1,300-1,315. Silver followed the gold down to $17.06 and rallied to close today @ $17.14.  While I’m not long any calls, I am long AGQ (3X leveraged ETF) and SLV in our stock / options account.  Copper has been the star with a steady climb from $2.93 to test $3.30 today but closed near the lows.  It looks to me it could now test $3.18-3.20.  We bought some SCCO 1/48 puts @ $ .45 to take advantage of the move.

 

Bitcoin, was lower and after testing $13,800 it came back a bit to close $14,905 -$1,685 (10%).  It is $14,610 -290 now.  The stocks were lower with RIOT -1.18, MARA - .04, GBTC -131.88 (5.6%), OSTK +1.65, NETE -.74, LFIN -2.70 (5%), LTEA-.34, TEUM -.18, FTFT -.24 COGT +.35 (7.5%), CNET +.43 (7.5%), and a new name, who invested in Ripple, STX  46 +3.06 (7.4%) after trading $49.70.

 

BIO/PHARMA, a group that I discussed in the Weekly Strategies this week that has been consolidating had some dramatic moves based on information shared at the JP Morgan Conference.  The downside was the feature with BIIB -12.50, REGN -12.58, ALXN -3.10, CLVS -3.51, CELG -.81, ISRG (med instruments)+12.85, ICPT -4.21 (7.3%), ABBV -1.66 and BRTX +1.20.  My favorite, INCY tested $99 and I tried to buy some Jan 105 calls to no avail, so I bought the stock in the $100M account @ $100.63, we closed 100.81 +.96 but is trading $102 tonight.  I’ll have to find a different option to buy.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/4/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

New Highs Abound !!

 

FOR TRADING JANUARY 5th

 

Today’s action was higher from the start with a narrow rally in 3 big DJIA names; GS (24 Dow pts), MMM (24), and IBM (22).  There were others like UNH, CAT, and AXP with just under double digit gains. This has been the rotation to 3 or 4 different leaders each day.  BA, on the other hand was finally slightly lower.  Market internals have been strong without getting excessive. The numbers that are shouting TOP—WATCH OUT BELOW !! are the A.A.I.I. Sentiment numbers.  Bulls are 59.8 +7.1%, Bears 15.6 -5.1, and Neutral 24.7 -2.  These are levels that just don’t occur without at least a correction.  On the positive side both David Tepper and Ralph Acampora both said today that they don’t see prices as expensive.  So, todays closings were DJIA +152.45 (.61%), NASDAQ +12.39 (.20%), S&P 500 +10.93 and the Russell +3.15 (.20%).

 

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, we had 3 new names in the “I’ll do anything to take advantage of Block chain technology”, COGT, traded much higher pre-market then had a high of $5.95 before closing $4.95 +.20 (4.2%), FTFT up from $1.50 to a high of $8 closed today $5.19 after trading $6.60, and I’ve saved the best for last; CNET, which is a killer combination of being both Chinese and Block chain, gapped open from yesterdays $1.17 to 2.84 before going as high as $11.90 before closing $9.34 +8.17 or 698%.

 

Oil, $62.01 +.38 moving to another new recovery high and another higher low for the day continues to hold the gains and work its way higher. These prices are not just recent highs but rather are just short of the May 2015 when it rallied after dropping from $105. Natural gas has firmed with the extreme cold in the middle of the country and the northeast.  However, the February natural gas was $2.88 -.128 on drawdowns less than expected.  The energy stocks were mostly higher with CVX -.40, APC +1.09, COP +.58, BP +.13, PSX -.28, MPC +.07, MRO +.45, RIG +.66 (5.9%) possibly because of the opening up of both Pacific and Atlantic coasts for drilling, OAS +.01, OXY -.04, HES +1.23 and XLE +.45.

 

RETAIL, was lower with several names giving the holiday report with gains of around 1%, BUT margins getting crushed.  Also, several names came out with additional store closures.  The biggest loser was L BRANDS , LB -7.16 (12.3%), M -1.28, JWN-.59, KSS -.98, DDS -2.13, SHLD -.11 (2.9%), JCP -.01, TGT -1.27, TJX +.12, DKS +.44, and XRT -.33.

 

FAANG, were also mostly higher with GOOGL +4.24, AMZN +5.24, FB -.19, AAPL +.97, NFLX +.60, TSLA -2.75 after being down almost $10 lower, NVDA +1.29, BA -1.13, BIDU +.18, BABA +1.70, IBM +3.52 on upgrades, and XLK +.47.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher across the board with GS +3.55 (23 Dow points), JPM +1.56 (only 7 Dow), BAC +.49, C +.92, PNC +1.08, and XLF +.30 and our position in XLF calls $ .53 +.16 (43%).

 

METALS, Gold had the pullback I was looking for but unfortunately it occurred while we were asleep.  It traded down to $1,307 before rebounding to open basically unchanged followed by a rally to $1,327 and closing $1,321 +$3.1.  I’ll have to find a buy point. Silver followed the gold down to $17.02 and rallied to close today @ $17.27.  While I’m not long any calls, I am long AGQ (3X leveraged ETF) and SLV in our stock / options account.  Copper has been the star with a steady climb from $2.93 to test $3.30 today but closed near the lows.  It looks to me it could now test $3.18-3.20.  We bought some SCCO 1/48 puts @ $ .45 to take advantage of the move.

 

Bitcoin, was very quiet again today with minor changes The stocks were mostly lower with RIOT +.14, MARA -.11, GBTC -.53, OSTK +6.25 (8.4%)BTSC -.01, NTET -.61, LFIN -1.51, IMUC -.01, LTEA -.23, , TEUM -.06, and the new 3 listed above.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/2/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Follow-thru for the Rally

 

FOR TRADING JANUARY 4th

 

Today’s action was higher from the start with the NASDAQ leading the way.  We closed out trades of HOG puts, AAPL calls and a long position in AMBA stock.  We also re-entered the AAPL with a higher strike and the HOG with a lower strike.  I want to take a second to remind everyone about the rules for trading based on my alerts.  We have only 2 rules and we stick to regardless of circumstances; the 100% Up Rule dictates that when a position goes up 100% YOU MUST SELL HALF  (taking your money out of the trade) , and the 50% Down Rule to sell if a position declines by half.  So, back to the markets with DJIA +98.87 (.40%), NASDAQ +58.63 (.84%), S&P 500 +17.25 (.64%), RUSSELL +2.56 (.17%) and the Transports, which were lower at -43 early closed +10.  The internals were solid without being excessive with the NYSE 1.5:1 volume and 4:3 A/D, while the NASDAQ ran ahead again at 2:1 and 3:2 respectively.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, one of today’s big stories was the INTC announcement about a flaw in some chips and the stock was as low as 43.65 but came back and closed -1.59 (3.4%) and is slightly lower in late trading.  AMD was higher at the close +.57 (5.2%), MU was +1.31 (3%), TXN +2.86 (2.7%) to a new high while INTC said it is not just their problem.  A late earnings report by ZUMZ sent that stock which closed 20.50 +.50 is currently trading $23.50 +3.00 (15%).  

 

Oil, $61.88 +1.51 moving to a new recovery high and another higher low for the day continues to hold the gains and work its way higher. These prices are not just recent highs but rather are just short of the May 2015 when it rallied after dropping from $105. Natural gas has firmed with the extreme cold in the middle of the country and the northeast.  The February natural gas was $3.01-.047.  The energy stocks were higher across the board again with CVX +.87, APC unchanged, COP +1.02, BP +.59, PSX +.68, MPC +1.43, MRO +.29, RIG +.26, OAS + .24, OXY +1.02, XOM +1.66, HES +1.55, and XLE +1.08 (1.4%).

 

RETAIL, was lower with only JCP +.20 (5.8%) the exception.  M -.27, JWN -.47, KSS -.89, DDS -1.24, SHLD -.02, TJX -1.38, TGT -.45, DKS +.79 and the XRT -.03.

 

FAANG, were also higher with GOOGL +18.31, AMZN +14.49, FB +3.11, AAPL -.26, NFLX +3.81, TSLA  closed $317.25 -3.28, reported lower deliveries of the Model 3 and the stock is 5 more lower in late trading, NVDA +14.84 (7.4%), BIDU +3.15, BABA +.27, BA +.49, IBM +4.11, and XLK +.56.

 

FINANCIALS, were unimpressive again today with GS -2.38, JPM -.17, BAC -.13, C +.24, PNC -.03 and XLF +.11.  Our XLF calls closed .37 +7.

 

METALS, GOLD was higher early today hitting the upper end of my projections and closed $9 off the highs at $1,314. As I’ve said, I sold too soon and I’m still looking for any selloff to reestablish a long position.  Silver is has quietly rallied to close today @ $17.17 -.03 and is $17.27 +10 in late trading.  While I’m not long any calls, I am long AGQ (3X leveraged ETF) and SLV in our stock / options account.  Copper has been the star with a steady climb from $2.93 to close today $3.25 and could now test $3.18-3.20.

 

Bitcoin, was very quiet today with minor changes The stocks were mostly lower with RIOT -3.40 (12%) we got stopped out yesterday on the above mentioned 50% Rule, MARA -.18, GBTC -6.50, CRCW MIGHT come back tomorrow, OSTK +6.60 (10%), BTSC -.02, NETE -1.18, LFIN -.40, IMUC -.0073, LTEA +.39 and TEUM +.19 (7.4%).

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/2/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

A Happy Start to the New Year

 

FOR TRADING JANUARY 3RD

 

Today’s action was straight up for all markets.  By the end of the day we had new highs across the board with DJIA  not at the highs but still +104.79 (.42%), NASDAQ +103.52 (1.5%) and the first time over 7,000, S&P500 +22.20 (.83%), the Russell +14.50 (.94%) and the star of the day, the Transports +198.25 (1.88%).  The internals were solid with 2.5:1 volume and 3:2 A/D on the NYSE and 4:1 and 2:1 respectively on NASDAQ.  Clearly the FAANG stocks rushed back into favor.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, One of today’s big gainers was the SMH (semiconductor ETF) was higher by 2.56 (2.62%) with MU +2.55 (6.2%), AMD +.70 (6.8%), INTC +.69 (1.5%), and TXN +1.13 (1.1%).  We bought 150 MU @ $41.41 and I will issue a stop tomorrow.  Another name that gets a seasonal move, WTW $47.72 +3.44 (7.8%) has a stated short interest of 12%, plus roughly 16% held by Oprah Winfrey makes this especially volatile on any news.

 

 

Oil, $60.37 -.05  after moving as high as $60.74 with another recovery high and a higher low for the day continues to hold the gains and work its way higher. The natural gas has firmed with the extreme cold in the middle of the country and the northeast.  The February natural gas was $3.056 +.103 or 3.4%.  The energy stocks were higher across the board again with CVX +2.37, APC +1.13, COP +.59, BP +.38, PSX +.60, MPC +1.20, MRO +.45, OAS +.16, OXY +.63, XOM +1.36, HES +.38 and XLE +1.17 (1.6%).  The oil futures are currently 60.45 +.08.

 

RETAIL, continued higher with M +1.11, JWN +1.74, KSS +2.12, DDS ++.57, SHLD +.20 (5.9%), JCP +.40 (12.6%) WMT +.50, TJX +.23, TGT +2.45 (3.75%) on rumors of AMZN buying them this year, TPR +1.03, DKS +.75, and XRT +.83 (1.8%).

 

FAANG, were also higher with GOOGL +19.78, AMZN +16.73, FB +4.99, AAPL +2.80, NFLX +9.09 (4.75%) on AAPL/NFLX combination,  TSLA +9.16, NVDA +8.93, BIDU +8.34, BABA +11.46 (6.6%), BA +1.84, IBM +.84 and XLK +.79 (1.23%).

 

FINANCIALS, were unimpressive even with the 10yr Treasury almost 2.5%.  GS +.81, JPM +1.06, BAC +.36, C -.06, PNC +.33, and XLF -.06.

METALS, GOLD was higher again today closing at $1,316 + 7, and is trading now just over $1,321.  Clearly I underestimated the strength and sold out too early.  Silver is has quietly rallied to close today @ $17.21 +6 and is $17.25 in late trading.  While I’m not long any calls, I am long AGQ (3X leveraged ETF) and SLV in our stock / options account.  Copper has been the star with a steady climb from $2.93 to close today $3.28.  The problem for me is that there are no pure plays in copper and while I traded SCCO last week, it’s just not an easy one to take advantage of the move.

 

Bitcoin, rallied from a low of -1500 to close +610 and is now $14,800 -260. The stocks were mostly higher with RIOT -1.25, MARA +.19, GBTC +245, CRCW (still suspended), OSTK +1.15, BTSC  -.006, NETE +2.86 (25%), LFIN +.73, IMUC +.027, LTEA +1.15  and TEUM +.57 (27%).

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 12/28/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

BORING !!

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 29TH

 

Today’s action was another example of “what if they gave a party and nobody came?”  Almost all of the action was the first 15 minutes of trading and the close.  Volume was again anemic and the internals were stronger with volume 2.5:1 on the NYSE and the A/D were 1.5:1.  The NASDAQ wasn’t quite as strong but it was positive with both volume and A/D both 1.5:1.  The DJIA had a last minute surge and finished +63.21, NASDAQ +10.82, S&P500 +4.92 and the Russell +4.99. Transports were the only down index -37.04.

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, One of today’s standouts was  again Energous Corp. After moving up 158% yesterday it closed $31.57 +7.87 (33%) with no further news other than the certification by the FCC for a wireless charging system that uses radio-frequency signals to charge small “enabled” devices like smartphones and earbuds. The company said that their device is the first to win approval under Part 18 of the FCC rules. Without much further guidance as to what other possible clearly the buyers think it has some big upside.

 

 

Oil, $59.89 +.25 after moving as high as $60.01 yesterday we had some early weakness, but after trying the lows from Wednesday it rallied back to the plus side. The action today was typical of a slow day with little profit taking.  If we hold over $58 we can see another leg up.  The stocks were mixed again with CVX +.03, APC -.02, COP -.41, BP +.15, PSX -.10, MPC -.02, MRO +.06, RIG _.01, OAS +.04, OXY +.38, XOM +.12, HES +.22 and XLE +.05.  The natural gas has firmed up with the extreme cold in the middle of the country and the northeast.  I’ll add a few names soon.

 

RETAIL, was lower across the board as the afterglow from the holiday activities. M +.08, JWN -.22, KSS -.61, DDS -.68, SHLD -.12 (3.4%), JCP -.01, WMT +.14, TJX -.59, TGT -.32 and XRT +.05.  The XRT is somewhat deceiving since it also includes stocks like HD that one would not equate with department store retailers.

 

FAANG, were mixed to slightly higher with GOOGL-5.80, AMZN +2.75, FB +.18, AAPL +.20, NFLX +6.57, TSLA +3.60, NVDA +.23, BA +.78, BIDU -3.11, BABA -.81, IBM +.93 and XLK +.11.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS +.55, JPM +.44, BAC +.05, C unch, PNC +.69, and XLF +.11.  Our XLF Jan 28 calls were .46 +.02.

 

METALS, GOLD was up overnight again and continued its run into what I consider some resistance just over $1,295 and I’m looking for some weakness or sideways action to re-establish a position for the New Year. Clearly I underestimated the strength and sold out too early.  Silver is has quietly rallied to close today @ $16.923 +.17.  While I’m not long any calls, I am long AGQ (3X leveraged ETF) and SLV in our stock / options account.  Copper has been the star with a steady climb from $2.93 to close today $3.29.  The problem for me is that there are no pure plays in copper and while I traded SCCO last week, it’s just not an easy one to take advantage of the move.

 

BITCOIN, was lower and I used the weakness to take a small position in RIOT January $31 calls @ $1.40.  The rest of the group was lower with RIOT -2.50 (8%), MARA -.33 (7%), GBTC -215 (10%), OSTK -2.55 (3.7%), BTSC -.02 (9.26%), NETE -.18, LFIN -3.62 (6%), IMUC +.03 (1%), LTEA +.42 (10%) and TEUM-.59 (23%).

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 12/27/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Why are we even Watching ??

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 28TH

 

Today’s action was an example of “what if they gave a party and nobody came?”  Watching paint dry is actually more eventful than today’s market in both volume and price movement. I can’t remember a less eventful day.  We opened slightly higher and the highs in the S& 500 was plus about $4 and the low unchanged and the close +2.12, while the DJIA was a similar short range and a close of +28.09.  NASDAQ was +3 and the Russell -.29.  Market internals were as boring as the moves with 1:1 volume and 5:4 A/D on both NYSE and NASDAQ. We bought some AAPL 1/172.50 calls @ $2.16.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, Today’s standout was NOT a Bitcoin or Block Chain stock but it had a monster move of $23.00 +14.16 (158%).  The company name is Energous Corp. and they had a certification by the FCC for a wireless charging system that uses radio-frequency signals to charge small “enabled” devices like smartphones and earbuds. The company said that their device is the first to win approval under Part 18 of the FCC rules.

 

Oil, $59.59-.38 after moving as high as $60.01 yesterday on the news of a pipeline problem in Libya we fell back to a low of $59.33 but closed just slightly lower.  The action today, after the move we’ve had this month from just under $56, is a normal and expectable pullback.  If we hold over $58 we can see another leg up.  The stocks were lower with CVX -.43, APC -.32, COP -.64, BP +.03, PSX +.42, MPC -.42, MRO -.25, RIG +.10, OAS -.06, OXY -.22, XOM -.08, HES-.32 and XLE -.25.

 

RETAIL, was lower across the board based on the reports of “competitive pricing,” discounts that cut into margins.  The biggest losers were M-1.21 (4.5%), KSS -1.58 (2.8%), DDS -1.63 (2.6%), while several big names, TJX -.48 (.6%), WMT +.10, TGT -.68 (1%) had smaller losses and XRT -.55 (1.2%).

 

FAANG, were mixed with GOOGL- 5.65, AMZN +5.68, FB +1.64, AAPL +.03, NFLX -1.52, TSLA -5.89, NVDA -.27, BA +.26, BIDU -.22, BABA +.71, IBM +.30 and XLK +.07.  We bought the AAPL calls on the weakness.

 

FINANCIALS, were also mixed with GS -1.77, JPM +.20, BAC -.04, C +.11, PNC +.08, and XLF +.03.  Our XLF calls were -.02, but slightly higher than we paid yesterday.

 

METALS, GOLD was up overnight again and continued its run into what I consider some resistance just over $1,294 and I’m looking for some weakness or sideways action to re-establish a position for the New Year. Silver is still unimpressive but it has quietly rallied to close today @ $16.75 +.15.  Copper has been the star with a steady climb from $2.93 to close today $3.256.  The problem for me is that there are no pure plays in copper and while I traded SCCO last week, it’s just not an easy one to take advantage of the move.

BITCOIN, No new name today in the Crypto-rush. The group (except CRCW-suspended) were mixed with RIOT -1.27, MARA +.21, GBTC -210 (9%), OSTK -1.35, BTSC -.01, NETE -1.85 (13.4%), LFIN +4.18 (7.6%) and being touted as a “short squeeze” IMUC +.02 (6%), LTEA -.65 (13.4%) and TEUM -.33 (12%).

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 12/26/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

AMZN or Just Overbuilding

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 27TH

 

Today’s action was sloppy from the start with AAPL being the biggest drag on the DJIA and GS running a close second.  The problem with AAPL was perceived weakness in the demand for the IPhone X by parts makers in Taiwan.  What I find interesting is that Apple never published or even guided the analysts to a specific number and if there is disappointment it actually comes from what they, without Apple’s input decided what the first quarter “should” look like.  While I didn’t buy the AAPL calls yet, I will when I think we’ve stabilized.  I expect it will be sooner rather than later.  Indexes were slightly lower but well off the lows with DJIA -7.85, NASDAQ -23.71, S&P 500 -2.84, and Russell +1.30.  Market internals were stronger on the NYSE with volume 2:1 and A/D 4:3 while NASDAQ was just under 1:1 on both.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, I usually find some group or earnings for this space, but there was really no stats today so I’m going off on a tangent here since my 15 year old granddaughter brought up AMZN being a monopoly at Xmas dinner. She doesn’t think that it’s “fair” that they can put other companies out of business.  I made the argument that if a company isn’t competitive, they shouldn’t be there.  After much discussion, and my argument that as a consumer, doesn’t she appreciate using AMZN and getting better pricing and convenience (she agrees) is that really who is the culprit ?  After thinking about this last night I have a different view.  AMZN is an issue, but I believe that the issue is the over-expanding and cannibalizing the markets for companies like Walgreens, or CVS, or even Walmart.  Is it really in their best interest to have 4 or 5 Walgreens in a town of less than 15,000?  And that doesn’t even include the competition from the 4 CVS’s or the 3 Rite Aid locations.  She and I agreed to disagree, but she still had to make 2 trips to the car to take all her stuff home.

 

 Oil, $59.80 +1.33 after holding $57 and having a solid grinding higher we broke out over my number (58.99) the news of a pipeline problem in Libya sent prices well over $59 with the high of the day $60.01.  I don’t generally give too much credence to news related gains, but we’ve been on this from the bullish side and today just confirms that stand.  The stocks were all higher with the XLE +.59.

 

RETAIL, was higher across the board on the reports from the Xmas season. Like the oil, it was unanimous on the list I keep and rather than list them all I’ll just go with the XRT +.54 or just over 1%.

  

FAANG, were lower with the exception of AMZN +8.40 and NVDA +2.20.  GOOGL -3.01, FB-1.25, AAPL -4.49 (3%), NFLX -2.44, TSLA -7.90, BA +.50, BIDU-1.05, BABA -4.05 (we got stopped out on 50% rule), and IBM +.49 and XLK -.51

 

FINANCIALS, were all lower with GS -1.26, JPM -1.26, BAC -.11, C -.72, PNC -1.07, and XLF -.08, BUT I used the weakness to buy XLF 1/28 CALLS @ $ .42.

 

METALS, GOLD was up overnight again and continued its run into what I consider some resistance just under $1,290.  I used the strength to take profits on the GLD calls and I’m looking for some weakness or sideways action to re-establish a position for the New Year. Silver is still unimpressive but it has quietly rallied from $15.63 to close today @ $16.62.  Copper has been the star with a steady climb from $2.93 to close today $3.25.  The problem for me is that there are no pure plays in copper and while I traded SCCO last week, it’s just not an easy one to take advantage of the move.

BITCOIN, Today’s new name in the Crypto rush is TEUM, closing $2.75 +1.48 (116%).  I actually know this company and have had them on the radio show several times.  They are primarily a very strong telecommunications company with Vodafone as a major customer. The rest of the group (except CRCW-suspended) were higher with the only exception being the name-change Long Island Ice Tea to Long Block chain $4.60-1.41(23%).  RIOT +6.51 (26%), MARA +.21 (5%), GBTC +370 (18%), OSTK +3.10 (4.7%), BTSC+.01, NETE -.91(6.5%), FLIN+13 (32%), and IMUC +.03 (10%).

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 12/21/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

A Rose is a Rose is a Rose

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 22nd

 

Today’s action was strong with a big up open followed by a steady market all day.  We tested the gap from the open and closed about mid-range.  DJIA +55.64 (.23%), NASDAQ +4.40 (.06%), S&P 500 +5.32(.20%) and Russell +7.03 (46%).  Market internals were stronger than yesterday with NYSE volume 2.2:1 and A/D 9:5 with NASDAQ 1.5:1 and 3:2 respectively.

 

The Stock Trader’s Almanac has a list too big to show here, but if you will send me an email at INFO@MoneyInfo-llc.com  with the words 2017 Free Lunch, I will gladly forward it to you.  Again, I do NOT sell names and addresses.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, No comment tonight

 

 

Oil, $58.36 + .27 after holding yesterday’s range we moved higher again and closed $58.36 and on the highs of the day. We closed over $58.12 and we should see another assault on $59.05 and a possibly higher. The stocks were mixed with CVX +4.11, APC +1.12, COP +1.67, BP +.80, PSX -.64, MPC +.67, MRO +.73, RIG +.73, OAS +.26, OXY +.70, XOM +1.11, HES +2.36 and XLE +1.57.

Retail , was higher with fractional gains.  M+.21, JWN +.66, KSS +.60, DDS +.64, KORS +.31, TJX ++.50, TGT +1.38, and XRT +.19.

 

 

FAANG, were lower with GOOGL -2.71, AMZN-2.86, FB -.34, AAPL +.80, NFLX -.20,  TSLA +2.52, NVDA -.58, BA +2.69, BIDU +6.12, IBM +.88, BABA +2.69 and XLK - .13.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS 5.97, JPM +1.86, BAC +.40, C +1.27, PNC +1.34, and XLF +.27.

 

METALS, GOLD was up overnight again and held $1,270 and traded as high as 1,272 before closing $1,270.06.  Silver was unimpressive show closing at $16.23. Copper held its gains of the past week and closed 3.1995 up a solid $ .04 and near the high of the day. Recent highs near $3.22-24 are possible.  

BITCOIN, Today’s new name in the Crypto rush is LTEA, Long Island Ice Tea, it closed $2.48 and in the premarket traded $14, but never got back there  printing a high of $9.49 +4.47 (183%). The rest of the Crypto names are RIOT 27.60-8.52 (24%), MARA 4.90 -.80, GBTC -611 (25%), LFIN 45.91 -22.59 (33%), NETE with a high of $ 33.51 closed $18.75, OSTK -2.45 and IMUC unchanged. I’ve been warning you about the extreme volatility in these names, and I will remind everyone that there have been several 80% declines in the past 5 years.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 12/20/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Tax Bill Passes, Again !

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 21ST

 

Today’s action was sloppy with a big up open followed by a selloff back to just a bit lower by 10:00AM.  We finished the day with minor losses with DJIA -28.10 (.11%), NASDAQ -2.89 (.04%), S&P 500 -2.22 (.08%) and the Russell +3.33 (.22%).  The real feature of the day was the Transports on the back of FDX +8.53 (3.52%).  They closed @10628 +94.54 (.9%).  Market internals were unimpressive at 5:4 and 1:1 for volume and A/D for both.  We are in the typical pre-holiday period from now until January 2, 2018.  The thing to watch right here is the selloff (for no specific reason) of stocks that have been substantially lower.  This is getting to the end of tax selling and many have sharp snap-backs the first week of the year. The Stock Trader’s Almanac has a list too big to show here, but if you will send me an email at INFO@MoneyInfo-llc.com  with the words 2017 Free Lunch, I will gladly forward it to you.  Again, I do NOT sell names and addresses.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, the chip stocks mentioned here last night have continued to move higher with the SMH (chip ETF) gaining over 30% since July, MU was higher again as were INTC (43 to 47.50) in the last 4 days, AMD +$1 (10%) since Monday,  and TXN up from 95 to 105 this month.

 

 

Oil, $58.09 + .53 after holding yesterday’s range we moved higher again and closed over $58 and on the highs of the day. We still need to close over $58.12 to see another assault on $59.05 and a possibly higher. The stocks were mixed with CVX +1.58, APC +1.34, COP +1.62, BP+.45, PSX +1.58, MPC +.90, MRO +.27, RIG +.31, OAS unch, OXY +.97, XOM +.43, HES +1.04 and XLE +.98.

RETAIL, was higher with fractional gains.  M+.06, JWN +.33, KSS +.25, DDS +.04, SHLD -.07, JCP +.01 and XRT +.15

 

 FAANG, were lower with GOOGL -6.22, AMZN -13.83, FB -1.71, AAPL -.30, NFLX +1.48, TSLA -1.45, NVDA +.14, BA +1.65, BIDU -2.37, IBM -.27 BABA +1.35 and XLK -.02.

 

FINANCIALS, were mostly lower even with another rise in interest rates today.  The upward bent of the Yield curve will guarantee better earnings as the margin on lending increases.  Wells Fargo announced it is raising to minimum wage ($15) to all employees. The rest of the list was GS-1.23, JPM -.16, BAC +.11, C unch, PNC -.18 and XLF -.05

 

METALS, GOLD was up overnight again and held $1,265 and traded as high as 1,271 before closing $1,269.60.  Silver put on an unimpressive show closing at $16.27. Copper held its gains of the past week and closed 3.1775 up a solid $ .04 and near the high of the day. Recent highs near $3.22-24 are possible.  

BITCOIN, Today’s new name in the Crypto-rush is NETE, Net Element, which closed  $5.21 Tuesday and opened today $17.80, traded as high as $24.98 before closing at $19.39 + 14.18 (272%).  The ICE, owner of the NYSE announced today that there will be a full complement of ETFs.  Regular, inverse, leveraged will all appear soon.  It ought to be a big boon for “unbacked derivative based options.”  My coverage list now includes RIOT -1.95 (and trades options now), MARA -.12, GBTC -637.99 (21%), CRCW suspended, OSTK -3.65 (5%), BTSC -.03 (10%), LFIN +2.73 and IMUC -.014 (4.8%).

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 12/19/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

BITCOIN GOT ME !!

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 20th

 

Today’s action was sloppy with an up open followed by a selloff back to just a bit lower by 10:00AM.  We finished the day with minor losses with DJIA -37.45 (.15%), NASDAQ -30.91 (.44%), S&P 500 -8.69 (.32%) and the Russell -12.18 (.79%).  The real feature of the day was interest rates moving higher along the whole curve.  The 10-year, stuck under 2.35% took off and touched 2.47% and the 30-year also higher at 2.82%. The market internals were a little more negative than the market looked with the NYSE 1.5: down volume and 2:1 down A/D while NASDAQ was 3:4 and 9:5 respectively.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, while the chip stocks have continued to move higher with the SMH (chip ETF) gaining over 30% since July, MU reported after the close today and beat both top and bottom line and moved from the close @43.98 to 46.52 +2.52 (5%).  Also reporting was FDX with a beat and good guidance and is up another 5.  The loser of the evening so far is SFIX, a new issue just 6 weeks ago and although the numbers were in-line with the forecasts from the deal, it was a minor disappointment since the stock has already moved from $15 to 26.  It is trading $22 -2.76 or (11%).

 

Oil, $57.66 +.44 after trying the highs again just under $58 we closed up on the day and with today’s high exactly matching yesterday @ $57.80.  We need to close over $58.12 to see another assault on $59.05 and a possibly higher. The stocks were mixed with CVX +.14, APC +.77, COP +.34, BP -.14, PSX -.84, MPC -1.26, MRO +.59, OAS -.10, OXY -.07, XOM -.63, HES -.24 and XLE +.08.

RETAIL, was lower with M -.56, JWN -.12, KSS -.40, DDS -.11, KORS +.17, SHLD (still terminal) -.09, JCP -.14, WMT (with an upgrade) +.90, TJX +.59, TGT -.08, and XRT -.41.

 

FAANG, were lower with GOOGL -5.31, AMZN-3.96, FB -1.42, AAPL -2.09 (got a downgrade), NFLX -3.40, TSLA -7.44, NVDA -1.07, BA+1.56, BIDU -5.31, IBM +.12, BABA -2.12, and XLK -.30.  

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed even with the rise in interest rates today.  The upward bent of the Yield curve will guarantee better earnings as the margin on lending increases.  The tax bill will also help the financials since they are not in the position to have many deductible expenses as do firms with capital equipment.  They have had a strong rally, but I believe there is more to come. GS -3.45, JPM -.45, BAC +.02, C -.97, PNC -1.05 and XLF -.16

 

METALS, GOLD was up overnight again and held $1,260 again and traded as high as 1,268 before closing $1,264.20 -1.3. Silver put on an unimpressive show closing at $16.15. Copper held its gains of the past week and closed near the high of the day at $3.135.

BITCOIN, as I warned, the parade of “Crypto-related stocks continued to proliferate and the one that I purchased, CRCW was halted from trading this morning by the SEC.  They are looking at whether this is a “pump and dump” situation since the stock has moved from $20 to closed yesterday at $575. If you recall, I tried to buy 10 shares @ $110 and got filled on only 2 shares. The stock was literally trading 1 share at a time because there was such an absence of shares available.  This afternoon Andrew Left of Citron was on CNBC discussing this same issue and reiterating his short position in the other stock I zoned in on, GBTC.  Last night I mentioned that this “private trust” contained 1/10 of a Bitcoin per share and was selling at an 84% premium to its net asset value. It closed $3,011-451 after being as high as $3523 and as low as $2,630.  The rest of my list includes RIOT (the first on I mentioned 3 weeks ago) that has moved from $8 to as high as $46, MARA from $1.00 to $10.03 and closed today $5.74, and the newest one, LFIN, a $5.00 new issue a week ago whose CEO sold the company a block chain company he owned and made the info public and watched the stock trade on Friday from $7.86 to 26.50, Monday from $35 to 142, and today from 58.80 to 89 and closed $68.27 -4.11. The CEO was on CNBC last night and said that the market cap was not warranted…REALLY ????

It may be fun to watch, and my $220 stake won’t be missed, but if there was ever a “BUYER BEWARE” situation this is it.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

 

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After the close 12/18/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

New Records All Around

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 19th

 

Today’s action was a continuing strength from the rest of the world.  DJIA +140.67 (.57%), NASDAQ +58.81 (.84%) with a new high over 7,000, S&P 500 +14.37(.54%), Russell +18.50 (1.21%) and even the Transports +129 (1.23%).  The internals were the same on both the NYSE and NASDAQ with a solid 3:1 volume and 2.2:1 A/D.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, today was “Snack Dayon the NYSE with two big deals.  First, there was CPB, a company that has seen steady declines in its mainstay business (evidentally millennials don’t eat soup or pork and beans) bought the century old LNCE,  Snyder’s-Lance, Inc., the maker of the original peanut butter on a cracker snack back in 1913.  The deal is reportedly $6.2 Billion and will be financed through debt.  S&P immediately downgraded the debt and the Street is somewhat skeptical that CPB will be able to raise LNCE’s EBITDA.  The second was Hershey to buy Amplify (BETR) in an all cash deal for $12.  BETR closed $12.01+5.01 (71.5%) but is just slightly lower at 11.93 in extended hours trading.

 

BTW, tomorrow, Tuesday I will be introducing a new small cap, green, energy company that I think has a great future.  The radio show, “MoneyInfo” on WPSL (CBS station) is broadcast at 10:05-11:00 am on AM 1590, and is also on the Internet at www.wpsl.com.

The guest will be Dr. Jerry Bailey who was President of EXXON Arabia.  Be sure to listen or send me an email @ Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com and just ask for the link to the interview.

 

Oil, $57.22-.11 after trying the highs again just under $58 we were just slightly lower and midrange on the day. If it continues to hold this area we should see another assault on $59.05.  The stocks were higher with only XOM -.28. CVX +.38, APC +48.53, COP +.23, BP +.74, PSX +.06, MPC +.26, MRO +.42, RIG +.09, OAS +.10, OXY +.35, HES +.20 and XLE +.53.

RETAIL, continued higher today with Xmas sales going full bore.  There is no excuse (one less day to shop) since the holiday is on Monday.  My main question will be how deeply the discounts cut into earnings, but you can’t argue with the move in the rally off the November lows with M +1.29, JWN +1.14, KSS +2.40, DDS +2.73, SHLD +.09, JCP +.10, WMT +.69, TJX +.77, TGT +1.41and XRT +1.18 (2.7%).

 

FAANG, were higher with only TSLA -4.55.  GOOGL +13.09, AMZN +12.26, FB +.54, AAPL +2.53, NFLX +.08, NVDA +7.20, BA +2.82, BIDU 7.52, IBM +1.00 BABA +.05 and XLK +.57.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher again with GS =3.18, JPM +.85, BAC +.46, C +.80, PNC +1.20 and XLF +.27.

 

METALS, GOLD was up overnight and held Friday’s lows near $1,255 and move to $1,267 before closing $1,265.5 +8 and right near the high. Silver did rally but was unimpressive at $16.20. Copper held and moved as high as $3.12 up $ .06 Friday and continued up another $ .01 today. I would look for some consolidation here since all last week I was looking for a move to $3.15.

BITCOIN, was started trading on the CME last night with a contract for 5 coins rather than the CBOE for only 1 coin.  After the CBOE futures traded over $20,000 Sunday night the actuals closed around $18,870.  It’s hard to comment on this without giving a warning about some of the stocks that mirror the price movement.  The only one that I will mention tonight is the private trust, GBTC, whose shares represent .10 (10%) of a Bitcoin. I have warned about this before, but the public thinks it’s worthwhile trading.  I can’t disagree with the chart, but the close today @ $3,463 and the coins value around $19,000 represents a premium of 84%.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

 

 

 

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