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After the close 6/13/2019GWO2.jpgGWO2.jpgGWO2.jpgGWO2.jpg

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading June 14th

 

Attack in the Gulf

Sends Oil Higher

 

FIVERR GAINS AFTER IPO

 

Tyson to Challenge BYND

 

Join Us Every Day, Link Below

 

 

The futures pointed to a higher open again and we moved to the high of the day by 10:00 at +142.  We started to give it up immediately and we went to -8 by 11:15 and spent the next 2 hours climbing back to a lower high of +128.  Mike Pompeo had an announcement (since a press conference would have entailed questions) about the Gulf attacks.  While he was decidedly hawkish, he said there would be a “measured and financial” response.  Clearly this is not over by a longshot.  While his PC didn’t have any immediate response, we continued to selloff until the last 15 minutes we went from +30 to close +101.94 (.39%), NASDAQ +44.41 (.57%), S&P 500 +11.80 (.41%), while the Russell was the biggest gainer +16.01 (1.05%) with DJ Transports the weakest but still +6.41 (.06%).  The DJIA was 19/11 up but even with the 100 point gain only 4 stocks moved double-digit DPs, with DIS +41, HD +23, BA +12 and on the downside, V -15.

 

 

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: As mentioned above, FIVERR: (FVRR), the “gig-economy” clearing house offering listings and offerings (for a transaction fee) was priced at $21 and opened $26.50, traded $25.55 and then while the CEO was being interviewed on CNBC, the stock traded steadily higher to around $31.50 and went on a sprint to the high $41.80 before closing $41.20 +21.20 just over 100%.

 

Last night’s earnings for RH sent the stock +20 continued this morning touching $121.75 + 26.86 before drifting lower to close near the low but still up on the day at $109.91 + 15.02 (15.83%).  LULU also beat and was higher by $8 or so, and followed the same pattern trading $182.89 +12.00 but it too fell to the lows and finished $174.52 +3.63 (2.12%).

 

Airlines were higher with DAL $56.52 +1.07 (1.93%), AAL $33.09 +1.99 (6.4%), and UAL $87.11 +3.32 (3.96%).  Chips were soft again with AMD finishing $31.39 -.79 (2.45%) while Broadcom (AVGO) reported after the close with a beat on earnings but a miss on revenues and so-so guidance.  The stock had finished $281.61 +1.88 but is currently $257.60 -24.01 (8.5%), mostly on the CEO’s statement that the combination of tariffs and the ban on shipping to Huawei is the problem.  I’d expect the SMH to be lower tomorrow.

 

As mentioned above, the Fake Meat industry is about to expand with TSN offering plant-based chicken nuggets.  TSN, with a $49.77 low Xmas eve has been on a steady climb closing today $82.53 +.64 but $2.00 off the high.  Monster beverage announced that it will offer Cannabis and CBD infused beverages, but the story is getting a bit long in the tooth and MNST was the worst performing S&P 500 stock finishing $60.60 -3.48 (5.43%).

 

Acadia Biosciences, a 1:20 reverse 1/24/18, that had moved from the low of $2.65 to trade $10.40 in February and fallen back to $4.90, but traded $6.47 just yesterday, announced a 7.5 million share offering and gapped down to finish $4.03 -1.88 (31.81%).  SharpSpring: (SHSP) also announced it priced a 2Million share shelf registration filed 5/24 and it fell to $12.70 -1.87 (12.83%).

 

Red Robin (RRGB) was higher all day on a 13-d filing by Vintage Capital, an activist fund, who called for a “strategic review.”  The stock closed $33.48 +8.02 (31.50%), its biggest gain ever.  After the close Vintage said that they’d pay $40 for the company.

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were HIGHER, CELG -.12, BIIB +.83, ABBV unchanged, REGN +1.28, ISRG +3.68, MYL +.24, TEVA -.08, VRTX -1.74, BHC -.11, INCY +.57, ICPT +.65 and IBB $104.31 + .98 (.95%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -1.12, CGC -1.14, CRON -.70, GWPH -.97, ACB -.17 ACB - .15, PYX +.56 (3.11%), APHA -.25, NBEV -.06, ACRGF -.32, CURLF -.13 and MJ $31.95 -.53 (1.63%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were HIGHER with LMT +.49, RTN +.21, NOC +2.65, GD +1.71, BWXT +1.00, TXT +1.00, UTX +.78, TDY +1.46, and ITA $208.21 +1.79 (.87%).

 

 

RETAIL: was HIGHER with the brands doing better.  M +.65, JWN +.49, KSS +.76, DDS +1.13, JCP +.06 (5.66%), WMT -.10, TGT -.23, TJX +.69, RL -.05, UAA +.42, LULU (see above) +3.31, NKE +.97, TPR +1.11(3.85%), CPRI +.55, and XRT $42.22 +.53 (1.27%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MIXED with GOOGL +11.91, AMZN +12.80, AAPL -2.09, FB +2.21, NFLX -2.46, NVDA -.64, TSLA +3.89, BABA +.29, BIDU +.94, IBM +.43, BOX -.03, CAT +.05, BA +1.83 and XLK $76.36 -.19 (.26%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were MOSTLY HIGHER with GS +1.27, JPM +.27, BAC -.03, MS +.35, C +.32, PNC -.37, AIG + .56, TRV -.32, AXP -.61 and XLF $27.20 + .11 (.41%).

 

 

OIL, $52.28 +1.44 The dramatic drop from $63 to 50.60 made the oil oversold, and after the bounce back to $54.84 ran out of steam and I was a buyer yesterday on the break and frankly it turned into a very touchy trade.  I was expecting a test overnight of $50.60 and we were as low as $50.92 before the tanker attack news sent it higher and by the open this morning we had already traded higher than yesterday’s high.  We own the XLE 6/21 61 calls and paid $ .92 to $.88 and they had closed $ .57…But today they traded as high as $1.10 before finishing $ .88 +.31.  We avoided the UCO, since it is crude-based and levered 2:1.  I wanted to own the stocks since they are influenced by Oil, but are companies with assets and cash-flow.  All of the stocks were higher and XLE was $61.46 +.76 (1.25%).

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,343.70 +6.90. Gold has broken the trend of lower highs established after topping out at $1,348.90 on 2/20/19.  I was looking for a test of $1,320 and we got $1,323 on Tuesday and we rallied right back to the highs.  I expect a move higher from here and I’m looking for the right expiration and strike to play…Stay tuned.

 

BITCOIN: closed $8,285 + 90. While it doesn’t have options yet, Bitcoin interests me a lot.  Monday I said I needed to see a close over $8,175 is a breakout in my book, and yesterday they rallied as high as $8,340 and closed $8,195.  Today we traded in a narrow range (inside day) but closed near the high.

I also recommend BGTC as the way to play. I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $9.94 -.61. We sold half @ $10.23 earlier but replaced it on the -1015 day @ $9.36 and it closed $10.75 +.30..

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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Call 617-827-1296.

After the close 6/12/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading June 12th

 

Crowdstrike +72%

Chips a Feature on the Downside

 

Join Us Every Day, Link Below

 

 

The futures pointed to a lower open based on the very soft inflation numbers.  So, we were down about 54 and just before 11:00 we had our only foray onto the upside at +12, but by noon we made a new low -90.  That defined the daily range and we closed -43.68 (.17%), NASDAQ -29.85 (.38%), S&P 500 -5.88 (.20%), the Russell was +.68 (.04%) with the DJ Transports were the big winner +48.41 (.47%).

Market internals were negative with NYSE volume 3:2 down and A/D 15:13, with NASDAQ also negative 9:8 and 8:7 respectively.  DJIA was split 14 Up and 16 Down, although only GS -30 and BA -16 were double digit losers and JNJ and MCD the only double digit gainer +12 DPs.

 

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

I’m going to repeat last night’s format tonight to give you a little more (better?) info on what I want to look at in this market.  It’s no secret that the “nature” of this market with midnight tweets that turn it on a dime, sometimes for 400 or 500 Dow points has been extremely difficult for me.  While it may be difficult for others too they don’t concern me, and I take loses very personally.

 

I still don’t believe that we are going to see a resolution to the China trade war in the short term.  That would be much too soon for Mr. Trump to use it in the 2020 election.  I know it may seem a bit cynical, but that’s what I believe is his plan.

 

 

For that reason, I still feel that there will be some substantial downdrafts.  They will be swift and dramatic, probably like what we have already seen, but they will also be manipulated with the intent to make the current administration look better.  Clearly classic “misdirection.”

 

So, what am I looking at?

 

I still think WMT is a set-up worth a major move.  Today it was up in a down market but it was an “Inside day,” I wrote this up for Weekly Strategies on Sunday but haven’t had a chance to buy the calls.  We’ve had a 7-day rally from $100.60 to today’s high of $108.97.  The breakout is $110 and today’s close on the low may give us the chance.  I am looking at the WMT 7/110 calls, closed today $1.72 +.32, and possibly the 6/21 110 calls which closed $ .59 +.19.  On the last breakout, 10/17 we went from $80 to the all-time high $109.98 by 2/18.  After that move the pullback never violated that breakout to the downside.

 

I believe when we get this breakout we will be headed to $120-130, on the first leg.  It would not surprise me to see WMT at $150 in the intermediate term (1 year).

 

Last night I said that I was also interested in the energy sector.  While I was disappointed to see the oil stop in the $54.75 area on the bounce off $50.60, I am giving it some space to consolidate between $51.50 - $52.00.  A break of the close at $51.68 would send me to the sidelines, while a move to $52 and a close at or near the high of the day would get me to buy some XLE calls.  Unfortunately, Oil did move lower and we bought the XLE 6/21 61 calls at $ .92 (they were already down from $1.26) but continued lower and closed $ .57.  What we need to see is an overnight test last week’s low of $50.60 and turn back up.  Sadly, I think the chances are low, and we will have to sell them tomorrow.

 

While it doesn’t have options yet, Bitcoin interests me a lot.  Last night I said I needed to see a close over $8,175 is a breakout in my book, and today they rallied as high as $8,340 and closed $8,195. I also recommend BGTC as the way to play, and it closed today $10.46 + .65.

 

Now, what was in the news?

 

Evercore, ISI downgraded the Chip stocks citing their opinion that the current cycle will not turn higher until the second half of 2020.  That is about 3 quarters later than the rest of the market expects.  Some of the notable losers were MU, which traded $35.99 yesterday but closed $32.96 -1.88 (5.4%), Lam Research (LRCX) which traded $195.29 yesterday and closed tonight $179.88 -10.04 (5.29%), and the Chip ETF, SMH, $108.80 yesterday, $104.76 -2.32 (2.17%).

 

As noted above, Crowdstrike: (CRWD), a cloud based cyber-security company came to market today with an IPO price of $34 and opened $63.50, traded as high of $67 before coming back to close $58 +24 (71.7%).

 

French technology giant Dassault Systems: (DASTY), sealed a “take-under” of Medidata (MDSO) at $92.25 in cash.  Unfortunately, MDSO had gotten a little ahead of itself and actually closed yesterday $94.75 and fell to $91.37 -3.38 (3.57%).

 

Facebook: (FB) got another shot fired in the form of a story that its CEO knew about the privacy problems and that they have reserved $5 Billion for an expected fine.  Unfortunately, this keeps the door open for more regulation and further sanctions for the company.  The stock has rallied from a recent low of $160.84 just 7 trading days ago and traded $179.98 but fell to $172.88 before closing $175.04 -3.06 (1.72%).

 

On the earnings front, PLAY missed last night and the stock was lower by about $8.00 in extended trade but only got worse today finishing $40.00 -11.53 (22.38%).

 

Tonight we had numbers from LULU which beat top and bottom lines and gave good guidance and is trading $178.33 + 7.44 (4.35%).  Also, RH (formerly Restoration Hardware) which got crushed by China trade tariffs, falling from $137 in a steady decline hitting $84.11.  Well, it seems that they have passed along much of those costs and reported much better than expected numbers as well as solid guidance.  The stock is currently trading $116.50 + 21.37 (22.3%).

 

Unfortunately, there was a Disaster Du Jour in the BioPharma sector with SVRA, Savara, Inc., who failed to meet their endpoints in a study for an autoimmune lung disease and fell from $10.57 to $2.25 and is currently $2.50 -8.07 (76.35%).

 

I’d like to know which format you like better and you can email you preference to TEXT@Moneyinfo-llc.com with your answer.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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Call 617-827-1296.

After the close 6/11/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading June 12th

  

Internals Catch Up to the Market

 

Join Us Every Day, Link Below

 

 

The futures pointed to a higher open and were did move higher and by 9:45 we had already made the high of the day +186.  From there it was a slow and steady decline to the low of the day at -62 and after another couple of short rallies and declines we finished down only 14.17 (.05%).  The only issue was the higher high and lower low finishing down, an “outside” day.  Usually not a good thing, but also usually the move lower is more extreme after a six-day rally of 1,568 DPs.

NASDAQ was - .60 (.01%), S&P 500 -1.01 (.03%), the Russell -4.45 (.29%) and the DL Transports, the biggest loser -33.35 (.33%).  Market internals were about as you’d expect on a day like today with NYSE volume 1.5:1 and A/D 1:1, while NASDAQ, the leader of late, a bit weaker at 1:1 and A/D 13:17 NEGATIVE.  DJIA was 17:13 up with the biggest losers UTX -34, BA -30, UNH -17 and DIS -13, and on the upside only AAPL +15, MCD +13 and CAT +10 the only names in double digits.

 

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

I’m going to change the format tonight to give you a little more (better?) info on what I want to look at in this market.  It’s no secret that the “nature” of this market with midnight tweets that turn it on a dime, sometimes for 400 or 500 Dow points has been extremely difficult for me.  While it may be difficult for others too

they don’t concern me, and I take loses very personally.

 

I don’t believe that we are going to see a resolution to the China trade war in the short term.  That would be much too soon for Mr. Trump to use it in the 2020 election.  I know it may seem a bit cynical, but that’s what I believe is his plan.

 

 

 

For that reason, I still feel that there will be some substantial downdrafts.  They will be swift and dramatic, probably like what we have already seen, but they will also be manipulated with the intent to make the current administration look better.  Clearly classic “misdirection.”

 

So, what am I looking at?  I think WMT is a set-up worth a major move.  I wrote this up for Weekly Strategies on Sunday but haven’t had a chance to buy the calls.  We’ve had a 7-day rally from $100.60 to today’s high of $108.97.  The breakout is $110 and today’s close on the low may give us the chance.  I am looking at the WMT 7/110 calls, closed today $1.40 +.15, and possibly the 6/21 107 calls which traded as high as $2.45 but closed $1.76.  On the last breakout, 10/17 we went from $80 to the all-time high $109.98 by 2/18.  After that move the pullback never violated that breakout to the downside.

 

I believe when we get this breakout we will be headed to $120-130, on the first leg.  It would not surprise me to see WMT at $150 in the intermediate term (1 year).

 

I am also interested in the energy sector.  While I was disappointed to see the oil stop in the $54.75 area on the bounce off $50.60, I am giving it some space to consolidate between $51.50 - $52.00.  A break of the close at $51.68 would send me to the sidelines, while a move to $52 and a close at or near the high of the day would get me to buy some XLE calls.  If it occurs, I’ll give you the strike and price intraday.

 

While it doesn’t have options yet, Bitcoin interests me a lot.  A close over $8,175 is a breakout in my book and BGTC seems to be the way to play, closing today $9.80 -.45.

 

Last, CVS.  This was my post earlier today in the Discord room…

WTF !!!~ So, the reason for CVS weakness is some jackass judge saying that he will "RULE AGAINST" the merger of CVS and AET...What is this asshole thinking...the deal closed back in October 2018.  This is like if I went to play Texas Hold-em and drew a 2 / 7 and folded only to see the flop come 7,7,2...and tell everyone at the table that I was back in the hand...

This is one of the most innovative companies in the healthcare space...and yet it can't seem to move higher and hold the gain...When did we start to give appointed judges the right to screw with deals that the FTC and DOJ have already given a thumbs-up on???

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3470308-fed-judge-nears-nixing-69b-cvs-aetna-deal

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

Subscribers to The Moskowitz Report

Receive free texting of all new or

closing trades with their subscriptions

 

 

GO TO:  www.GreatWizeOZ.com TO SUBSCRIBE or for questions

Call 617-827-1296.

 

The futures pointed to a higher open and were did move higher and by 9:45 we had already made the high of the day +186.  From there it was a slow and steady decline to the low of the day at -62 and after another couple of short rallies and declines we finished down only 14.17 (.05%).  The only issue was the higher high and lower low finishing down, an “outside” day.  Usually not a good thing, but also usually the move lower is more extreme after a six-day rally of 1,568 DPs.

NASDAQ was - .60 (.01%), S&P 500 -1.01 (.03%), the Russell -4.45 (.29%) and the DL Transports, the biggest loser -33.35 (.33%).  Market internals were about as you’d expect on a day like today with NYSE volume 1.5:1 and A/D 1:1, while NASDAQ, the leader of late, a bit weaker at 1:1 and A/D 13:17 NEGATIVE.  DJIA was 17:13 up with the biggest losers UTX -34, BA -30, UNH -17 and DIS -13, and on the upside only AAPL +15, MCD +13 and CAT +10 the only names in double digits.

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

I’m going to change the format tonight to give you a little more (better?) info on what I want to look at in this market.  It’s no secret that the “nature” of this market with midnight tweets that turn it on a dime, sometimes for 400 or 500 Dow points has been extremely difficult for me.  While it may be difficult for others too

they don’t concern me, and I take loses very personally.

I don’t believe that we are going to see a resolution to the China trade war in the short term.  That would be much too soon for Mr. Trump to use it in the 2020 election.  I know it may seem a bit cynical, but that’s what I believe is his plan.

For that reason, I still feel that there will be some substantial downdrafts.  They will be swift and dramatic, probably like what we have already seen, but they will also be manipulated with the intent to make the current administration look better.  Clearly classic “misdirection.”

So, what am I looking at?  I think WMT is a set-up worth a major move.  I wrote this up for Weekly Strategies on Sunday but haven’t had a chance to buy the calls.  We’ve had a 7-day rally from $100.60 to today’s high of $108.97.  The breakout is $110 and today’s close on the low may give us the chance.  I am looking at the WMT 7/110 calls, closed today $1.40 +.15, and possibly the 6/21 107 calls which traded as high as $2.45 but closed $1.76.  On the last breakout, 10/17 we went from $80 to the all-time high $109.98 by 2/18.  After that move the pullback never violated that breakout to the downside.  

I believe when we get this breakout we will be headed to $120-130, on the first leg.  It would not surprise me to see WMT at $150 in the intermediate term (1 year).

I am also interested in the energy sector.  While I was disappointed to see the oil stop in the $54.75 area on the bounce off $50.60, I an giving it some space to consolidate between $51.50 - $52.00.  A break of the close at $51.68 would send me to the sidelines, while a move to $52 and a close at or near the high of the day would get me to buy some XLE calls.  If it occurs, I’ll give you the strike and price intraday.

While it doesn’t have options yet, Bitcoin interests me a lot.  A close over $8,175 is a breakout in my book and BGTC seems to be the way to play, closing today $9.80 -.45.

Last, CVS.  This was my post earlier today in the Discord room…

WTF !!!~ So, the reason for CVS weakness is some jackass judge saying that he will "RULE AGAINST" the merger of CVS and AET...What is this asshole thinking...the deal closed back in October 2018.  This is like if I went to play Texas Hold-em and drew a 2 / 7 and folded only to see the flop come 7,7,2...and tell everyone at the table that I was back in the hand...

This is one of the most innovative companies in the healthcare space...and yet it can't seem to move higher and hold the gain...When did we start to give appointed judges the right to screw with deals that the FTC and DOJ have already given a thumbs-up on???

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3470308-fed-judge-nears-nixing-69b-cvs-aetna-deal

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

 

Subscribers to The Moskowitz Report

Receive free texting of all new or

closing trades with their subscriptions

 

 

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Call 617-827-1296.

After the close 6/10/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading June 10th

 

No Mexican Tariffs Send Us UP

UTX & RTN Merger

 

Join Us Every Day, Link Below

 

 

Pre-open the futures had been higher by 140 and by noon we were at the highs +226, but after 2 ½ hours we were making a new low of the day but still +74, and from there we got bored to death and finished +78.74 (.30%), NASDAQ +81.07 (1.05%), S&P 500 +13.39 (.47%), the Russell +9.17 (.61%) and the DJ Transports the only index lower by 24.62 (.24%).  Market internals were positive with NYSE volume an unimpressive 1.2:1 and A/D 3:2 while NASDAQ was stronger at 2.2:1 and 2:1 respectively.  DJIA were 21:9 with UTX and MCD both losers of 29 DPs.

 

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: Merger-Monday came back to life today with the all-stock deal between these two great American defense contractors.  While both were higher early, UTX trading $135 before it reversed and finished lower at $128.01 -4.14 (3.13%).  Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) fell on the news that the FTC has asked for additional information before the planned acquisition by Roche Holding AG.  ONCE fell to $97.35 before closing $100.21 -9.14 (8.36%) on the news.  Roche also extended the end date of their tender offer from June 14th until July 31st.

 

First thing this morning I thought I had the “Home-run” of the day with PRVB, Prevention Bio, as they reported solid results from a study for the delay or prevention of Tpye-1 Diabetes.  Before the open the stock had traded up to $12.38 +8.03 (185%), but that was just the beginning.  The stock, halted several times for volatility, traded as high as $22.82 before closing $13.79 +9.44 (217%).  Not a bad day, but not the winner.

 

Because, along came an old favorite of mine, Novabay Pharma (NBY) that I traded from $2.40 to $4.30, with the news that its eye-care product, Avenova, could now be purchased without an RX on Amazon.com.  The stock was halted 18 times (I’m guessing a record) for volatility.  The first time I saw it on the tape it was trading $1.03 + .71, but again, just the beginning.  By the close it had traded $3.60 and finished $3.10 +2.78 (868.75%).  But, that wasn’t all, as it traded $.13 and finished the extended hours $3.74 +3.42 (1068.75%)… NOW THAT’S A HOME-RUN!!!

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  With all the action mentioned above, you’d think the group was hot, but not so.  stocks were MOSTLY LOWER with only 2 on the plus side, BIIB +1.17 and ISRG +10.68 (2.14%), and the IBB $103.21 -.62 (.60%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were HIGHER with TLRY the biggest gainer +4.65 (11.98%) followed by CRON +1.56 (9.79%) and NBEV +.28 (6.19%).  The MJ was $32.94 +.86 (2.68%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were MIXED with the above mentioned merger the big news.  Only RTN was higher by more than $1 and UTX the biggest loser (see above).  ITA finished $210.66 -1.30 (.61%).

 

 

RETAIL: was HIGHER but the brands slipped. M +1.23 (6.02%), JWN +.87, KSS +.84, DDS +.38, JCP +.047 (4.81%), WMT +1.47, TGT +.64, TJX -.42, RL +2.78, UAA +.04, LULU -.61, NKE -.94, TPR -.17, CPRI +.34 and XRT 41.42 +.24 (.58%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were HIGHER with NFLX the only loser -8.77 (2.43%).

GOOGL +14.39, AMZN +58.37 (3.24%), AAPL +2.61, FB +1.28, NVDA +3.05, TSLA +10.75 (5.26%), BABA +6.02, BIDU +1.29, IBM +.30, CAT +1.40, BA -.37 and XLK $76.97 +.78 (1.02%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS leading the way +4.30 (2.31%).  The rest of the list was up with XLF $27.35 +.23 (.71%).

 

OIL, $53.26 - .73 Today’s action was a try at $55 (54.84) and turned back down and closed near the low.  This is not a surprise after the reversal last week.

If we hold $52-52.50 I expect that will happen and we will make another try at

$56-57.00.  The stocks were mostly higher and XLE finished $61.45 +.18 (.29%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,329.30 -16.80. As I said in my Gold update video:

https://youtu.be/1aNKOhPMHEE  Gold tried the contract highs and failed and today’s move lower covers about 2/3 of what I expect the pullback to entail.  I will watch for some consolidation here and make a decision on whether or not to get long or short.

 

BITCOIN: closed $8010 unchanged. BC has put on an explosive move but went parabolic and turned lower, but found solid support around $6,800.  The continuation of this move towards $10,000 seems to have some resistance around $9,500.  Today’s break back down 495, and the move all the way back to unchanged was impressive.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $10.25 -.11. We sold half @ $10.23 2 weeks ago.  I said I’d add again on any pullback to 7,800-8,000, so I bought some back @ $9.36 Tuesday.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 6/6/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading June 7th

 

Mexican Standoff on Tariffs

Oil Recovers 2.75%

 

Join Us Every Day, Link Below

 

 

Pre-open the futures had been higher by 90 but fell when the Trade data was soft and there was a sell-off to unchanged.  But by the time we opened we were up 70 and after 4 hours of sideways action we started higher when someone said that the Mexican tariffs “might” not have to go into effect Monday.  We rallied to the high of the day at +260 before the last 15-minute sell-off to close +181.09 (.71%), NASDAQ +40.07 (.53%), S&P 500 +17.34 (.61%), the Russell was lower again -3.25 (.27%) and the DJ Transports were also -93.76 (.92%).  The market internals were slightly better but not nearly good enough to support +1000 move since Monday’s low.  NYSE today only turned positive in the last hour finishing with volume 1.6:1 and A/D 4:3.  NASDAQ volume was 3:2, but 7:8 A/D.  New highs were 210 / 120on NYSE but NAZ was 79 / 138.  DJIA was 25:5 higher with no major movers.  CVX +20.50 DPs and MCD was +19.56 and JNJ +15 rounded out the top gainers and DD was the only double-digit loser -14.84.

 

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: as reported last night, the earnings report from SFIX, Stitch Fix were much better than expected both top and bottom lines and great guidance.  After the rally last night, we traded as high as $29.92 before closing at the low of the day, but still +3.47 (14.72%.  Unfortunately, Cloudera, CDLR beat bottom-line but was a slight miss on revenues and guidance.  Also an IPO in 2017 @ $15, traded as high as $23.35 but has been on a steady decline ever since, including a weekly loss of $8.60 to $12.98 (39.85%) in 4/18 and closed today $8.80 but fell to $6.10 -2.70 (30.6%).  It continued lower today and finished $5.21 -3.59 (40.8%).  Another mover on earnings, CIEN beat top and bottom, with good guidance and the stock, a darling in the late 80’s has been in somewhat of a protracted decline, reverse split in 2007 1:7 clearly came back to its prior love affair today closing on the high, $45.49 +10.55 (30.19%).  That reverse made the “adjusted high” $1,057, so it has a way to go.  I bring this up not to belittle the stock, but rather to remind investors of the historic valuations so they don’t consider a move like today without the context.  Another big name in the same position is Citi (C) since most latecomers look at the chart and see a bank that had a low of $21.40 in 2012 and is now well up into the $60s…HOWEVER, unless you’re a dinosaur like me, you may not remember that this one was also a reverse of 1:10, and that gives it a slightly different look when you realize it’s still down from $570.

 

Beyond Meat (BYND) also reported after the close and it made all those holders of the new fake meat company ecstatic with a beat.  The IPO @ $25 on 5/2 was up 400% and the numbers sent it to $125 and is now $117.04 +17.21 (17.22%).

 

ZM, also an IPO in April @ $36 and traded $91.46 closed today $79.43 +1.39 but the numbers sent it to $89.72 and is now $87.60 +8.19 (10.31%).  AMD received an upgrade by Morgan Stanley and closed $31.82 +2.32 (7.86%) and looks like it’s heading to try the high at $32.72.

 

Unfortunately, it wasn’t all rainbows and lollipops, At Home, (HOME) the home décor retailer which has been a public company since 2016, with a range of $10.07 to $40.97 missed on all important metrics and after closing yesterday $19.05 -1.69 (8.15%), it opened today $19.01 and fell to close $7.50 -11.55 (60.63%).  CLEARLY, THE DISASTER DU JOUR.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were MOSTLY LOWER without participation in the rally.  The ETF, IBB was $102.17 -1.01 (.98%).

 

CANNABIS: stocks were MIXED with only TLRY +.11, CGC +.57, CRON -.22, GWPH -2.25, ACB -.23, PYX +.26, APHA +.04, NBEV -.20, ACRGF +.03, CURLF -.30 and MJ $31.50 -.10 (.32%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were HIGHER across the board with ITA $210.72 +.57 (.27%).

 

 

RETAIL: was LOWER and the brands followed. The only stores higher were WMT +.69 and TGT +.21.  The XRT finished $40.73 -.15 (.37%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MIXED with GOOGL -1.01, AMZN +9.50, AAPL +2.16, FB -.14, NFLX +1.01, NVDA +2.50, TSLA +8.89 (4.52%), BABA -.21, BIDU -.84, IBM +.73, BOX +.59 (3.48%), CAT +.21, and BA +1.89.  XLK was $74.80 +.86 (1.16%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.24, JPM +.16, BAC +.11, MS +.31, C +.69, PNC -.50, AIG -.13, TRV +.15, AXP +1.31, and XLF $27.16 +.10 (.37%) and KBE 42.66 -.01 (.02%).

 

OIL, $52.59 +.91 Today’s action was an “inside day” with a close near the highs.  We hit $50.60 at the low yesterday and came back a bit.  We are dramatically oversold and on the lower Bollinger band, and I am looking to be a buyer if we test the $50.60 area again.  I favor the UCO, but the options have no liquidity and I’ll probably use the XLE.  I missed the buy today but I’m certain we’ll get another chance.  As I said last night, oil stocks are not just crude and today’s action says it all.  The stocks were up across the board and the XLE finished $60.99 +1.11 (1.85%).

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,342.70 + 9.10. Gold broke out to top the most recent “lower highs” and had a run up to challenge the 2/20 high of $1,349.80 with yesterday’s high of $1,348.90, and today we had an “inside” day with a close near the highs.  We’ll have to see if we can challenge $13.49.80 again soon.

 

BITCOIN: closed $7610 -225. BC has put on an explosive move but went parabolic and turned lower, but found solid support around $6,800.  The continuation of this move towards $10,000 seems to have some resistance around $9,500.  Today’s break back down to the 20-day Moving average.  I didn’t see any news. I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $9.25 -.57. We sold half @ $10.23 2 weeks ago.  I said I’d add again on any pullback to 7,800-8,000, so I bought some back @ $9.36 Tuesday.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 6/5/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading June 6th

 

 

ADP # WORSE SINCE 2010

Oil Lower by 24% from Recent Highs

 

Join Us Every Day, Link Below

 

 

Pre-open the futures had been as high (when I awoke at 5:00am) +140 but the ADP numbers (worst in 9 years) sent them back toward +40 or so, but the market would not be denied and we opened +130 and making the high +178 by 10:30 it made the low of +120 and started some backing and filling for 3 hours until it made a new high +204 just after 2:15.  And just like yesterday we sat quietly until the last 15 minutes and then managed a new high at the close +207.39 (.82%), NASDAQ +48.36 (.64%), S&P 500 +22.88 (.82%), the Russell went the other way and finished -1.77 (.12%) and the DJ Transports held a gain of 21.02 (.21%).

 

The problem with today’s market was the fact that if you just looked at the internals you would have thought we were lower with NYSE volume light and 2.4 up/3.4 down and A/D just barely 1:1.  NASDAQ was 8:9 down and 2:3 respectively. DJIA info again not available but we were 24 up, 6 down.

 

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: the earnings report from SFIX, Stitch Fix were much better than expected both top and bottom lines and great guidance.  The stock, an IPO in November @ $15 and traded $14.38 before going on a 10-month rise to hit $52.44 in September before moving all the way back to $16.05 on Xmas eve, rallied back to $37.72 and again fell to finish today at $23.57.  After the numbers the stock has risen to $31.50 and is now $31.14 +7.50 (31.73%).

 

Unfortunately, Cloudera, CDLR beat bottom-line but was a slight miss on revenues and guidance.  Also an IPO in 2017 @ $15, traded as high as $23.35 but has been on a steady decline ever since, including a weekly loss of $8.60 to $12.98 (39.85%) in 4/18 and closed today $8.80 but fell to $6.10 -2.70 (30.6%).

 

The ride-share stocks were both higher today with LYFT making a new recovery high after its decline from $88.60 to $47.17 closing $63.01 +5.39 (9.35%), and UBER, which opened below its IPO price of $45 (opened@42) and fell to $36.08 crossed its IPO price for the first time today closing $45 +2.25 (5.26%) after trading $45.66.

 

The Oil market has just been decimated.  For the 11-day decline we are lower by $13.36 (20.8%).  The point being that energy is not just the price of crude, it’s cash-flow and assets.  While I strongly favor the UCO (2X levered), the options there have no liquidity so I will probably go with XLE.

 

Last Wednesday I wrote up RWLK, Rewalk Robotics, maker of an Exo-Suit for stroke victims.  The stock had been $4.08 +1.11 or 37.37% on the news that it had gotten the “CE” mark allowing for sales.  Today it got FDA approval and it was off to the races.  The stock had closed $3.32 when the announcement came and in after-hours it immediately moved to $9.40 and the last is $8.98 + 5.56 or just 170%.

UPDATE:  RWLK traded as high as $11.09 +7.77 premarket this morning but in the regular hours only hit $10.08 and finished $7.40 +4.08 (122.89%).

 

The Disaster Du Jour was easy today.  InflaRx N.V.: IFRX, reported poor results for their treatment for an inflammatory skin disorder, Hidradenitis Supprativa.  The stock, and IPO in November 2017 @ $15, and moved to a high of $53.10 in late April closed yesterday $35.99 opened today @ $4.25 (not a misprint) and fell to $2.91 before closing $3.06 -34.23 (91.79%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were MOSTLY LOWER with CELG +.13, BIIB -.91, ABBV +.31, REGN -4.72, ISRG +9.57, MYL -.08, VRTX +2.00, BHC -.56, VRTX +2.00, BHC -.56, INCY -.54, ICPT -.67, and IBB $102.92 -.09 (.09%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with only CRON higher by $1.46 (10.12%) on a double upgrade by Bank of America and CURLF +.96 (12.48%).  MJ was $31.60 -.02 (.06%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were HIGHER across the board with ITA $210.22 +3.03 (1.46%).

 

 

RETAIL: was LOWER but the brands gained. The only stores higher were WMT which had an annual meeting +1.59 (1.55%) and TJX +.46 (.91%).  RL -.78, UAA +1.10 (4.55%), LULU +3.39 (2.01%), NKE +.47, TPR +.12, CPRI -.34, and XRT $40.88 -.61 (1.47%).

 

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MIXED with GOOGL -15.32, AMZN -1.56, AAPL +2.20, FB +.13, NFLX +1.25, NVDA -2.31, TSLA +1.98, BABA -3.25, BIDU -2.29, IBM -1.68, BOX -.33, CAT +1.04, BA +3.24 and XLK $73.94 +.95 (1.30%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER with only PNC +.85, TRV +1.45, AXP +1.27 and XLF $27.06 +.17 (.63%).

 

 

OIL, $51.68 -1.80 Today’s action was another break to a lower low.  We hit $50.60 at the low and came back a bit.  We are dramatically oversold and on the lower Bollinger band, and I am looking to be a buyer if we test the $50.60 area again.  I favor the UCO, but the options have no liquidity and I’ll probably use the XLE.  (see info on page 1).  The stocks were lower with XLE $59.88 -.67 (1.11%).

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,333.60 +4.90. Gold broke out to top the most recent “lower highs” and had a run up to challenge the 2/20 high of $1,349.80 with today’s high of $1,348.90, and came back down to close nearer the lows.  If the past performance is any sign, we should be headed back towards $1,320.

 

BITCOIN: closed $7835 +210. BC has put on an explosive move but went parabolic and turned lower, but found solid support around $6,800.  The continuation of this move towards $10,000 seems to have some resistance around $9,500.  Today’s break back down to the 20-day Moving average.  I didn’t see any news. I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $9.98 +.70. We sold half @ $10.23 2 weeks ago.  I said I’d add again on any pullback to 7,800-8,000, so I bought some back @ $9.36 today.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 6/4/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading June 5th

 

A REAL RALLY ?

or Just Shortcovering?

 

Join Us Every Day, Link Below

 

 

Back to work with my platform fixed and running again.  We started back on the upside with China making some positive comments and Trump avoiding any further insults in England.

 

The opening was +250 and after a bit backing and filling took off again to move to +360 by 10:30. By 11:30 we were at new highs again +435 and then spent 3 hours going sideways until the last half hour when we rallied to close _512.40 (2.06%), NASDAQ +194.10 (2.65%), S&P 500 +58.82 (2.14%) the Russell +38.58 (2.62%) and the DJ Transports, the biggest gainer +323.90 (3.32%).  Market internals were strong with NYSE volume7.8:1 and A/D 4.5:1.  NASDAQ was 5.2:1 and A/D was 3:1.  While new highs/lows were 143?46 on the NYSE, NASDAQ saw the opposite at 53/76.  DJIA breakdown was unavailable at the time I wrote this but the only DJIA stock lower was VZ - .16.

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: the first earnings report of the day was BOX which reported a beat but issued poor guidance going forward.  This was a darling at last year’s Ira Sohn conference and saw a high of $29.97 before some disappointing numbers.  The stock had moved from the Xmas eve low of $15.46 to $24.93 before it’s last report, gapping down to $19.10, and consolidated until the last few days, breaking the recent lows (18.50) yesterday and gapping lower today to trade $15.30 before rallying to close at the high of the day, $17.18 still lower by $ .75 (4.18%).  Mirati Therapeutics, MRTX, which got major props over the weekend at the ASCO Conference with its partner AMGN was higher again.  Yesterday it gapped up to close $89.20 + 21.41 (31.58%) and today it continued to finish $98.03 +8.83 (9.9%).

 

NFLX got an update from Loop with a price target rise from $375 to $425.  The stock has been consolidating for this entire year between $320 -$380 but yesterday it was down with the rest of the FAANG names.  Today was another story with a gap up to open $345 +8 and continued to close near the at $353.40 +16.77 (4.98%).

 

After the close we had CRM report a beat and after today’s rally it was $150.81 +5.71 (3.94%) and move higher to $157 and is now $154.80 +3.99.  Also reporting was Gamestop (GME).  The stock has been on a steady decline for 3 years from $34 to close the day $7.82 +.35 (4.69%), but even though the company recorded a beat, forward guidance was weak.  The stock initially traded up on the headline hitting $8.35 before turning down to a last of $5.80 – 2.02 (25.8%).  End of an era for buying games that are now being streamed or downloaded at home.  The stock is down from $63.77 after a 2:1 split in 2007.

 

 

It looked like the HOMERUN of the day early was Castor Maritime reporting big gains in earnings and revenues and the stock was as high as $9.60 + 5.29 (122%) but sadly someone noticed the numbers were only single digit millions and the stock backed off to have an admirable day +1.55 (35.96%).  But after the close we had a new candidate.

 

 

Last Wednesday I wrote up RWLK, Rewalk Robotics, maker of an Exo-Siut for stroke victims.  The stock had been $4.08 +1.11 or 37.37% on the news that it had gotten the “CE” mark allowing for sales.  Today it got FDA approval and it was off to the races.  The stock had closed $3.32 when the announcement came and in after-hours it immediately moved to $9.40 and the last is $8.98 + 5.56 or just 170%.

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were HIGHER with CELG +.73, BIIB +3.91, ABBV +1.16, REGN -1.89, ISRG +16.10 (3.53%), MYL +.63 (3.66%), TEVA +.55 (6.18%), VRTX +4.63, BHC +1.03, INCY +2.00, ICPT +2.19, and IBB $103.19 +2.13 (2.11%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were HIGHER with TLRY +2.14, CGC +2.28, CRON +.82, GWPH +5.36, ACB +.64, PYX +.17, APHA +.42, NBEV +.03, ACRGF +.95, CURLF +.20 and MJ $31.62 +1.50 (4.98%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were HIGHER across the board with LMT +4.43, RTN +3.80, NOC +3.31, GD +4.63, BWXT +1.00, TXT +2.08, UTX +2.51, TDY +8.09 (3.43%) and ITA $2.07.19 +4.17(2.05%).

 

 

RETAIL: was HIGHER across the board and the brands following along.  The biggest gainer was JCP $1.02 +.14 (15.9%).  M +.44, JWN +1.00, KSS +.11, DDS +1.47, WMT +.80, TGT +2.90, TJX +.81, RL +4.51, UAA +1.22, LULU +5.13, NKE +3.67, TPR +1.23, CPRI +1.39 and XRT $41.49 +1.19 (2.95%).

 

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were HIGHER with GOOGL +17.26. AMZN +46.18, AAPL +7.70, FB +3.84, NFLX +18.81(see above), NVDA +10.81, TSLA +15.44 (8.63%) on an upgrade from MS, BABA +5.36, BIDU +3.82, IBM +4.73, BOX (see above), CAT +1.40, BA +5.56, and XLK $73.30 +2.67 (3.78%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +7.21, JPM +3.39, BAC +1.34, C +3.30, PNC +4.43, AIG +1.13, TRV +.76, AXP +2.23 and XLF $26.99 +.81 (3.09%).

 

 

OIL, $53.48 +.23 Today’s action was just a short range “inside” day with a close near the highs.  This market needs some work before it can move up, or continue on its current decline.  The stocks were higher with the market with CVX +1.41, APC +.57, BP +.42, COP -.42, APA +1.30, PSX +2.37, MPC +1.36, MRO +.11, RIG -.06, OAS +.13, HES +.13, HES +1.1, NE -.04, OXY +.48, XOM +1.67, VLO +1.70, KMI +.06 and XLE $60.50 +.98 (1.65%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,328.70 +.80. Gold broke out to top the most recent “lower highs” and had a quiet day of consolidation.  I am on the sidelines since we are in an area that I couldn’t short or get long since there are no stops available in either direction.

 

BITCOIN: closed $7625 -1015. BC has put on an explosive move but went parabolic and turned lower, but found solid support around $6,800.  The continuation of this move towards $10,000 seems to have some resistance around $9,500.  Today’s break back down to the 20-day Moving average.  I didn’t see any news. I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $9.12 -1.65. We sold half @ $10.23 2 weeks ago.  I said I’d add again on any pullback to 7,800-8,000, so I bought some back @ $9.36 today.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 6/3/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading June 4th

 

 

Is FAANG the New ATM

For DoJ and SEC?

 

FB, GOOGL, & AMZN Pounded

 

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This evenings Note is somewhat abbreviated since my platform will not be fixed until later tonight.

 

For 8 years after the Banking Crisis, after the Federal government punished the very same firms that they prevailed upon to take over the failed or failing institutions like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill, and Countrywide Credit.  There were other smaller failures lumped in there, but these were the names that everyone remembers.  And, I’ll discuss Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG later.

 

While there is absolutely no question that there were many valid issues that clearly deserved to be punished, the blame fell to the saving institutions rather than the obviously corrupt or just plain stupid managers of those companies.

The number of fines and penalties heaped on the likes of Bank of America (taker of Merrill) and JP Morgan (Bear and Countrywide) were enormous, and they continued year in and year out totaling a staggering $243 BILLION.  The biggest (all in Billions) were B. of A. $76.1, JPM $43.7, Citi $19, Deutsche $14 Wells Fargo $11.8 and RBS $10.1.  The rest are single digits.

 

These fines were, of course, paid by the only people who had absolutely no part or blame for the violations, THE SHAREHOLDERS.

 

As for the Fannie and Freddie and AIG, they all became essentially overseen by the government for their loans, ALL paid off, but AIG was the only one that actually had an equity component.  The government got to buy $40Bil in a preferred.  Total loaned and invested $182 Billion, ALL repaid or liquidated with the final gain: $22.7Billion.  Fanny and Freddie, total loans $632 Billion, Repaid plus interest $839 Billion, net gain $107 Billion.

 

So, back to the headline: “FB, GOOGL, & AMZN pounded as Dep. of Justice and SEC looking at breakup.”  And of course the question from politicians and Democratic presidential hopefuls becomes, “How much can we take from these three giants to help fund whatever the F#@k we want?”

 

This group was lower in very active trading with GOOGL, down from $1194 just early last week to close today $$1,038.74 -67.76 (6.12%), AMZN, from $1917 to close today $1,692.69 -82.38 (4.64%) and the biggest (and appropriately) FB, down from $188 10 days ago to close today $164.15 -13.32 (7.51%)

 

HENCE THE HEADLINE, ARE THEY THE NEW GOVERNMENT ATM?

 

So, the DJIA had a much subdued day today with the range of only $103 from 24680 to 24,783, and finished the day +66.97 (.27%) while NASDAQ got destroyed finishing -120.13 (1.61%), S&P 500 -7.61 (.28%) and DJ Transport +21.83 (.22%).

Market internals were split with NYSE volume 2.6:1 and 1.9:1 A/D and NASDAQ 1:1, but A/D 3:2 DOWN with the new low list expanded to 166.  DJIA was 21 up, 9 down but most of the losers were double digits with UNH -31, MSFT -23, V & BA -16 and AAPL -10DPs.  The only double digit gainers we DWDP +25 and CVX +13.

 

Oil was just slightly lower after another big range day.  Last night it was - .80 but this morning it managed to get to +.60 for the open.  The close of $53.25 - .25 was mid-range.  Gold and Silver were higher again, this time silver keeping up.  Gold has now taken out 2 of the lower highs ($1,310 and $1,320) with $1,335 the last top before the $1,360 recent top.  Bit Coin had been consolidating its gains and while it was slightly higher today, tonight it is -600 at $8040 and back in range to buy it between $7,950 and $8050.  I was using $7,800 -$8,000 as the buy range but I may replace the half position I sold in GBTC.

 

I’ll be back tomorrow with a full letter (hopefully)….

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

                              https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 5/30/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 31st

 

Oil Hit Again

 

Not Much Direction in the Market

 

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We started on the upside today with futures moving in a short range.  We worked our way to the high of the day of +92 by 10:45 and spent the rest of the day around unchanged moving from +40 to -40.  Around 2:45 we tried the downside making the low at -61 before the last 45-minute rally back to close +43.47 (.17%), NASDAQ +20.41 (.27%), S&P 500 +5.84 (.21%), the Russell was the big loser at -4.42 (.30%) and the DJ Transports finishing lower -4.36 (.04%).  Market internals were fairly flat with NYSE volume 1.4:1 UP and A/D 15:13 while NASDAQ 9:7 and 1:1 respectively.  New lows continued at 188 NY and 133 NAZ.  DJIA stocks were 20 up / 10 down with only one stock, MCD in double digits at +22.

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: Retail was the highlight both early and late.  Prior to the open we had DG with a beat and solid guidance finishing at $127.00 +8.49 (7.16%) and DLTR the same and gaining $2.99 (3.14%).  ROST and BURL both beat and they were rewarded with finishing on the high A $92.90 +2.60 (2.88%) and BURL midrange at $156.07 +10.03 (6.87%).  There was plenty of bad news too with J. Jill (JILL) the Disaster Du Jour reporting a miss all around and after coming public again in March 2017 and trading $14.25, opened today at $1.71 and closing $1.68 – 1.93 (53.46%).

 

After the close we had numbers from UBER, its first since the IPO coming in inline and after closing $39.80 is now trading $41.40 +1.60.  COST beat but after an initial move up to $247.63, it has moved lower to $237.10 and is $239.01- 2.44.  ULTA was in-line but after a quick move to $333, it moved to $310 and is now $321.05- 7.39.  GPS was a miss all around and after rocketing higher in March to $31.39 on the last report had given it all back to close today @ $20.60, it plunged lower to $18.08 and is now $18.40 -2.20 (10.68%).

 

Also after the close two cloud based firms reported and didn’t live up to expectations and were punished.  ZUO, a cloud based subscription platform provided had losses that doubled and gave poor guidance.  The stock, public only since 4/18 moved from $18.75 to $37.78 before falling to $22.50 and back to $35 before moving lower again and closing today $19.90 -.45 (2.12%).  After the numbers the stock fell to $14.39 and is currently $14.50 – 5.40 (27.1%).  The other, NTNX also missed and I wrote about it on Tuesday when it fell 10%.  After closing $32.67 -1.02, today’s numbers sent it lower to $26.12 and is $27.70 – 4.97 (15.21%).

 

Kraft (KHC) continues to disappoint holders and continued its slide to close at another new low @ $27.40 -1.28 (4.46%).

 

WSM beat all around and after closing $51.59 it moved higher to $57.90 and is currently $57.50 +5.90 (11.43%).

 

A quick update on our two HOME RUN stocks of this week, SOLY, up from $5.82 to trade $29.00 yesterday closed a bit lower today at $18.70 -1.58 (7.79%).  Still a nice gain for the week, and yesterday’s winner, ELTK, which I described but forgot to include the symbol, which moved from $1.72 to $8.72, continued higher to trade $11.56 before closing $8.32 +1.32 (18.86%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were MOSTLY HIGHER with CELG +.91, BIIB +.83, ABBV -.31, REGN +.18, ISRG +5.29, MYL -.84 (4.67%), TEVA -.81 (8.25%), VRTX +3.71, BHC -.83 (3.76%), INCY +1.15, ICPT -1.77 (2.07%) and IBB $101.99 +.24 (.24%).

 

CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with just 2 higher with PYX +.81 (4.56%) and ACRGF +.15.  MJ was $32.05 -.39 (1.2%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were MIXED with LMT +1.91, RTN _.94, NOC +3.80, GD -.21, BWXT -1.01, TXT -.31, UTX -1.07, TDY +1.35 and ITA $204.39 +.16 (.08%).

 

 

RETAIL: was MIXED and the brands following along.  M -.24, JWN +.04, KSS -.35, DDS +.11, JCP +.05 (5.63%), WMT -.02, TGT +1.08, TJX +.85, RL -.96 UAA unchanged, LULU +1.41, NKE +.16, TPR -.64, CPRI -1.01, and XRT $40.57 +.07, (.17%).

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MIXED with little change.  GOOGL +1.47, AMZN -4.68, AAPL +.78, FB +.56, NFLX +2.11, NVDA -.85, TSLA -.85, BABA -1.60, BIDU -1.33, IBM +.29, BOX -.01, CAT +.49, BA +.88 and XLK $72.78 +.12 (.17%).

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -.68, JPM -1.19, BAC -.59, MS -.67, C -.15, PNC -1.42, AIG +.54, TRV +.66, AXP -.27, XLF $26.40 -.10 (.38%) and KBE $41.77 -.65 (1.53%).

 

 

OIL, $56.59 -2.22 Today’s action was disturbing to say the least.  After yesterday’s test and reversal higher it looked like we were headed higher but this morning when the supply numbers came out we worked lower and broke yesterday’s low and finished at the lows of an “outside” day.  NOT A GOOD SIGN. There is still support just below us at $55.00-55.50, but I’ll have to stand aside until we see if it holds.  The good news, we are getting very oversold and the stocks can still bounce on stabilization even before an advance.  Those stocks were lower with only 2 showing gains, NE +.11 (5.45%) and KMI +.20 (1.00%) and XLE $59.86 -.73 (1.2%).

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,287.10 + 6.10. Gold is in an area that I find difficult to trade.  We’ve fallen to support around $1,270 and rallied back to 1,285 and we seem stuck here right now.  A rally back to $1,300 would probably get me short, but if we continue to hold that $1,270-72, I would have to look at the long side.  I have had the 2 same options on my platform, GLD 6/121 calls and 6/119 puts, waiting for some direction.

 

BITCOIN: closed $8,620 -70. BC has put on an explosive move but went parabolic and turned lower, but found solid support around $6,800.  The continuation of this move towards $10,000 seems to have some resistance around $9,500.  Today’s move over 9,000 (9145) and the close on the lows will undoubtedly cause some selling overnight, possibly to as low as $8,000.  I may be a buyer again on any pullback to 7,800-8,000.

 

I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $11.63 unchanged. We sold half @ $10.23 2 weeks ago.  I may add again on any pullback to 7,800-8,000.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

                              https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 5/29/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 30th

 

Just Plain Ugly

 

Retail Brands Suffer

 

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We started on the downside this morning with sentiment definitely negative from all quarters.  Hopefully we will get bad enough to create some sort of rally, probably fast and sharp, only to fail 500 or 600 DPs from here.  With the exception of a small rally while Mueller spoke (-220 to -180) we continued lower to -411 by 12:00.  We had a little rally induced by chips bouncing and oil coming back up to -250, but by 3:00 we were -340 again.  We rallied into the close and finished -221.36 (.87%), NASDAQ -60.04 (.79%), S&P 500 -19.37 (.69%), the Russell -14.07 (.94%) and the DJ Transports -76.02 (.76%).  Market internals showed a much better NASDAQ than NYSE.  NYSE volume and A/D were both 2:1, but over on NASDAQ volume was only 5:4 and A/D 2:1.  Both showed an expansion in new lows with 225 and 215 respectively.  DJIA was 27:3 down.  Biggest losers were BA 43, JNJ 40 (see below), NKE 15, MMM 14, and CVX and HD 11 DPs.  The rest were all single digits.

 

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: Retail was the villain at the start with ANF and GOOS the worst.  ANF beat slightly but the Hollister brand was a disappointment and was blamed for slower same store sales and very poor guidance, including closing 3 more “flagship” stores.  The stock opened $19.66 before falling to $18.27 -6.75 before closing $18.37 -6.64 (26.55%).  Canada Goose (GOOS) seller of very high-end outerwear slightly increased earnings but missed on revenues and gave poor guidance for the FY20.  The stock opened $41.58 -7.44 (15.1%) before freefalling to $35.00 (28.2%) before closing $33.84 -15.18 (30.97%).   CPRI, owner of several luxury brands Versace, Jimmy Choo, and Michael Kors, missed for Q4 and gave poor guidance based on higher expenses related to expansion of Versace.  Jimmy Choo was the sole (no pun intended) bright spot growing 35% (constant currency), and 29% net.  The stock was lower, but nothing like the previous two.  It opened $35.90 -2.99 (7.6%) and after making a low at $34.25, finished the day $35.06 -3.83 (9.85%).   Dick’s (DKS) reported a $ .04 beat in earnings, a beat on revenues and gave upbeat FY20 EPS guidance and actually was well received and opened higher and traded $37 +1.25 before turning lower under the weight of the other retailers.  I can only assume that it has to do with the effect that the continuing trade war and rising prices (contracting margins) in the coming periods.  The stock traded as low as $33.11 before closing $33.67 -$2.11 (5.9%).  After the close we had PVH, owner of Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein and other brands report a miss both top and bottom line with the CEO mentioning “softness here and in China” and issuing poor guidance.  The stock, down from $134.25 just 6 weeks ago closed $99.25 – 6.65 (6.28%) but is now $91.20 down an additional 8.08 making the loss $14.70 (14%).

 

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) beat top and bottom but also gave negative guidance.  Down from $260 in late march it closed $215.32 +.84 but is now $205 -10.34 (4.8%).

 

Besides TEVA, which settled with Oklahoma yesterday and fell 12.4% yesterday (and rallied a bit today, JNJ also is involved in Opioid cases and broke from $141 yesterday to trade $128.52 today before finishing $131.33 -5.74 (4.19%) and second only to BA as the biggest DJIA loser shaving almost 40 DPs.  AGN is also involved and it is down from yesterday’s high of 136.03 to close today $125.67 -5.74 (4.37%).

 

It wasn’t all bad news, BYND, the $25 IPO just 20 days ago turned up (yet again) and finished the day at a new all-time high at $97.65 before closing $97.50 +11.50 (13.37%) with an overall gain of 290%.  AMRN received a priority review for Vascepa, its Cardio Risk Reduction drug.  The stock traded as high as $19.67 finishing $18.99 +1.98 (11.64%).  And while it wasn’t up much, FDX traded to $156.22 and managed to close +1.12, nearer the high after its fall from just under $200 in April.

 

I thought I’d be writing about SOLY again tonight since it traded as high as $29 before closing $20.28 +6.06 (42.62%), BUT NO…..

 

Today’s HOMERUN of the day goes to an Israeli based maker of technologically advanced solutions in the field of PCBs, printed circuit boards, selling to leading companies in defense, aerospace and medical industries, through their subsidiaries in North America, Europe, India, South America and South Africa.  And today, they reported, and while the company is small, the gains in EBITDA for the quarter were big.  They reported $881,000 vs a negative $185,000.  Naturally, the stock was halted for volatility several times but when the smoke cleared, it had traded $8.72 but sold off to close $7.00 +$5.36 (326.83%).  NICE ONE…

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were MOSTLY LOWER with CELG -.49, BIIB -2.14, ABBV +.03, REGN -.15, ISRG +.71, MYL +.10, TEVA +.19, VRTX -6.21 (3.59%), BHC -.57, INCY -4.17 (5.1%), ICPT -1.28. and IBB $101.95 -.95 (.92%).

 

CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -2.00, CGC -2.16, CRON -.35, GWPH -7.58, ACB -.18, PYX -.72, APHA -.22, NBEV -.12, ACRGF -.91, CURLF -.28 and MJ $32.44 -.79 (2.38%).

 

DEFENSE: were LOWER with LMT +1.59, RTN -.56, NOC -2.23, GD -1.35, BWXT -.07, TXT -.34, UTX -.86, TDY -1.00 and ITA $200.10 -4.61 (2.25%).

 

 

RETAIL: was LOWER across the board and the brands following along.  The biggest loser was LULU -12.05 (6.94%) with CPRI (see above) -3.83 (9.85%) and JCP -.05 (5.56%).  XRT was $40.50 -.93 (2.24%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were LOWER with GOOGL -19.56, AMZN -16.43, AAPL -.74, FB -2.06, NFLX -5.53, NVDA -3.33, TSLA +1.80, BABA -.93, BIDU -.99, IBM -.93, BOX -.20, CAT -.12, BA -5.88 and XLK $72.66 -.43 (.59%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -.59, JPM -.17, BAC -.18, MS +.02, C -.05, PNC +.39, AIG -.45, TRV -1.21, AXP -1.16 and XLF $25.66 unchanged and KBE $42.42 +.19 (.45%).

 

 

OIL, $58.81 -.33 Today’s action was impressive in the way we were MUCH lower at $56.88 and rallying back to trade over $59 and closing almost $2.00 off the low and just under $ .30 from the high.  Yesterday I said I’m sitting on the sidelines in oil until we see either some sideways action or a much stronger rally.  Today’s range is a clear first step towards getting back on the long side.  I’m still watching the Nat Gas for a little more of a pullback into the $2.50-2.52 range but today’s high at $2.6460 may change that since the moving averages seem to be turning higher.  The stocks were mixed with the XLE finished $60.67 -.31 (.51%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,281.00 +3.90. Gold is in an area that I find difficult to trade.  We’ve fallen to support around $1,270 and rallied back to 1,285 and we seem stuck here right now.  A rally back to $1,300 would probably get me short.

 

BITCOIN: closed $8,690 -15. BC has put on an explosive move but went parabolic and turned lower, but found solid support around $6,800.  The continuation of this move towards $10,000 seems to have some resistance around $9,500.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $11.63 +.19. We sold half @ $10.23 2 weeks ago.  I may add again on any pullback to 7,800-8,000.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 5/28/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 29th

 

 

Sloppy Day All Around

 

Chips Diverge

 

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We started on the upside with a lack of any bad news, but after we made the high of the day +132 we started down a long and boring decline that accelerated just after 2:15 to take us to new lows of the day and a reversal of 270 DPs.  The closings were DJIA -237.85 (.93%), NASDAQ -29.66 (.39%), S&P 500 -23.75 (.84%), the Russell -10.10 (.67%), and the DJ Transports, the biggest loser again -132.35 (1.31%).  Market internals were weak with NYSE volume 3:1 down and A/D 2:1 while NASDAQ was slightly better at 3:2 and 5:3 respectively.  While there were still 124 new highs on the NYSE, there were only 77 on NAZ and new lows expanded to 106 and 121 respectively.  The DJIA had only one stock, V on the upside and the biggest losers were UNH -37, GS 25, MMM 20, PG 15, HD 14, IBM and JNJ 12, TRV 11, UTX 10 and the balance from -9 to -1.23 (DIS).

 

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: The chips were again a sector with a split personality.  While AMD was MUCH higher on the news of new gaming and PC chips, the rest of the group was at first sloppy, and then down again and ugly.  AMD finished $29.03 +2.59 (9.8%), INTC can’t seem to get out of its own way and finished $43.57 -1.00 (2.24%).  While INTC is down $16.02 (26.8%) from its high in mid-April, AMD is with pennies of its high and up from $16.03 (81%)from its Xmas eve close.  The SMH, the semi ETF finished $98.55 -.88 (.89%) and down from $120.71 or 18.4% since April 24th.

 

ROKU was downgraded on valuation by Stephens and fell from new all-time highs and finished $88.83 -6.95 (7.26%).  The stock remains one of the best gainers coming public in late 2017 and had a low of $15.75, for a move of 464%.

 

Kraft Heinz (KHC) is down to a new all-time low with the rest of the consumer staples, closing $29.06 -2.05 (6.59%).  While the rest of the group, SJM, K, and CPB all lower, KHC is the standout.  Possibly a problem with their most recent 10Q, it is non-compliant, weighs on this one more than the others.

 

While UNH was the biggest loser in the DJIA, healthcare was not a total washout.  NextGen Healthcare reported this afternoon and beat on top, bottoms and forward guidance.  After closing $19.56 +.21 (1.09%) the stock has traded as high as $22 and is currently $21.45 +1.89 (9.66%).

 

Nutanix (NTNX) fell to a new recent low, closing $31.41 -3.73 (10.61%) after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock with a new price target of $37, down from $53.  In checking out the current news tonight I came across a reminder from a law firm reminding “Anyone with losses of over $100,000 in the stock that there is a deadline of 24 hours to be included in the Class Action suit.”  Never a good thing… Also on the lawsuit induced problems, TEVA fell to lows not seen since the turn of the new millennium.  The company settled an opioid lawsuit for $85million.  While that may seem an insignificant amount for a company with a market cap of $10.4 Billion, it is only 1 of 50 states, and not counting any other countries.  The stock was downgraded by UBS with a price cut from $22 to $12, and it finished the day $9.52 -5.70 (37.45%).

 

AND, the “HOMERUN of the day,” was another little medical instrument company named Soliton, Inc. (SOLY) which has only been public since its $5.00 IPO on 2/19/2019, and just received an FDA approval of its “Rapid Acoustic Pulse” device for the removal of tattoos.  I saw the stock trading up in premarket at about $6.50 or about 12%, but by the time we were open the stock moved from $6 to $8 and continued higher.  By 11:00 the stock had been halted for volatility and finished the day at $14.22 +8.49 (148.17%) BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE…it is currently $19.70 + an additional $5.53 for a gain of $14.02 (245%).  Not bad…

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were LOWER with TEVA (see above) the biggest loser.  There were only two other higher, VRTX +.99, and INCY +.01.  IBB WAS $102.90 -1.30 (1.25%).

 

CANNABIS: stocks were MIXED with TLRY -1.16, CGC +.15, CRON +.42, GWPH -2.40, ACB -.03, PYX -.45, APHA -.12, NBEV -.04, ACRGF +.22, CURLF +.43 (4.735), and MJ 33.75 +.30 (.90%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were LOWER with LMT +.11, RTN -1.46, NOC -3.84, GD -.37, BWXT +.15, TXT -.77, UTX -1.48, TDY -3.14, and ITA $204.71 -.79 (.38%).).

 

 

RETAIL: was LOWER and the brands following along.  The only 3 names higher were M +.03, KSS +.18, and LULU +.77.  XRT was $41.43 -.26 (.62%).  We bought some DDS 6/21 $60 calls between $1.05 and $ .85.  They closed $ .85.

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MIXED with GOOGL +.95, AMZN +13.67, AAPL -.47, FB +3.24, NFLX +.39, NVDA -2.05, TSLA -2.45, BABA -.48, BIDU -.33, IBM -1.94, BOX +.05, CAT -1.25, BA +.32 and XLK $73.09 -.21 (.28%).

 

 FINANCIALS were LOWER across the board.  XLF finished $26.53 -.33 (1.23&) and KBE $42.23 -.53 (1.24%).

 

OIL, $59.14 +.51 Today’s rally was somewhat insignificant after last week’s decline.  I’m sitting on the sidelines in oil until we see either some sideways action or a much stronger rally.  I’m still watching the Nat Gas for a little more of a pullback into the $2.50-2.52 range for another long position in UNG.  The stocks were lower with only NE +.06 (3.13% and COP +.17.  XLE finished $60.90 -.72 (1.17%).

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,277.10 -6.50. Gold is in an area that I find difficult to trade.  We’ve fallen to support around $1,270 and rallied back to 1,285 and we seem stuck here right now.  A rally back to $1,300 would probably get me short.

 

BITCOIN: closed $8,705 +620. BC has put on an explosive move but went parabolic and turned lower, but found solid support around $6,800.  The continuation of this move towards $10,000 seems to have some resistance around $9,500.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $11.44 +.74. We sold half @ $10.23 2 weeks ago.  I may add again on any pullback to 7,800-8,000.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 5/23/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 24th

 

 

No Place to Hide

 

Join Us Every Day, Link Below

 

 

We started down early with several issues, but as a subscriber in our Discord room noted, there was no place to hide.  Even Best Buy, who had great numbers couldn’t fight the rest of the market and the trade issues since they sell so much in electronics, items that will be tariffed or possibly not available with disruptions in supply chains.  There is really not point to giving you the breakdown of hourly changes since we opened and went straight down to -406 and had one 100-point rally that peaked around 11:00 and then spent the rest of the day working lower until a rally off the low (-442) into the close of -286.14 (1.11%), NASDAQ -122.56 (1.58%), S&P 500 -34.03 (1.19%), the Russell, biggest loser -30.26 (1.98%) and the DJ Transports -161.74 (1.57%).  Market internals were about what you’d expect with NYSE volume 4:1 and A/D 3.7:1, and NASDAQ 3:1 and 4:1 respectively.  Although there were 116 new highs on NYSE, they were outnumbered by 181 new lows.  NAZ was 47 highs and 186 lows.  DJIA was 24 down and 6 up with the biggest losers UTX -34, IBM 27, GS 25, AAPL 22, UNH 19, V & CVX 18, MMM 17 and BA & JPM 15 DPs.  The winners were HD +21, JNJ 7 and INTC which was down most of the day but moved back to be +3.61 DPs.

 

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: TSLA fell in pre-market to trade $181.86 but never made that low in regular hours, moving from the low of $186.22 to trade 199.47 and closing $195.49 +2.76 (1.43%).  As mentioned above, BBY came in with a solid beat and good guidance, but the prospect of an escalating tariff rate sent the stock lower to finish $65.82 -3.35 (4.84%).  After the close Auto-Desk (ADSK) reported a miss and after making a new all-time high earlier in the month closed today $169.54- 4.49 (2.58%) traded $151 before a slight bounce to $154.20 down another $15.34 for a total of $19.83 (11.4%).

 

Back to retail, and ROST beat but gave somewhat soft guidance for Q2 and after finishing the day $94.51, it fell to $90 before coming back to $91.10 -3.41 (3.63%).  DECK (maker of UGGs) beat for their Q4 on both top and bottom lines and an increase of margins from 48% to 51.6%.  While it gave lowered guidance for Q1, it is nonetheless $155.00 +7.45 (5.05%).

 

On the China front we had weakness in WB, down from $72.78 earlier this month to a low today of $42.70 and closed $45.39 -5.77 (11.28%), SINA down from $63.95 this month to close $45.54 -4.79 (10.12%), and CTRP down from $44.59 to close $36.46 -1.20 (3.19%).

 

And, today’s Disaster Du Jour was yesterday’s HOMERUN…Obalon Therapeutics, OBLN, which on their positive trial results and traded from $ .39 to a high of $1.80 last night and closed $1.30 +.91.  Today it gapped down this morning and traded $ .63 before closing $ .68 (47.69%).  Last night until today $1.80 to .63, (65% swing).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were LOWER with just INCY higher by $1.48 (1.87%) and the IBB $103.73 -.95 (.91%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were also LOWER across with the biggest loser CURLF -.64 (6.79%), PYX -.95 (5.06%), and CRON -.75 (4.65%).  MJ was $33.03 -1.04 (3.05%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were LOWER across the board with particular attention being paid to their reliance on “Rare Earth” metals, in short supply and controlled by China, ITA was $204.52 -3.39 (1.63%).

 

 

RETAIL: was LOWER and the brands following along.  The only 2 names higher were TGT +1.61 (2.08%) after yesterday’s move up on earnings, and TJX whose price target was raised at Credit Suisse, Merrill and Nomura.  XRT finished $41.70 -.56 (1.33%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were LOWER with only TSLA (see page 1) and BA higher on the day. GOOGL -8.15, AMZN -45.43 (2.44%), AAPL -3.08 (1.69%), FB -4.42, NFLX -7.26, NVDA -5.85 (3.84%), BABA -2.31, BIDU -4.79 (4.05%), IBM -3.85, BOX -.28, CAT -1.49, BA +.16 and XLK $73.03 -1.56 (2.09%).

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -3.62, JPM -2.32, BAC -.72, MS -.99, C -.67, PNC -2.05, AIG -.36, TRV -1.02, TRV -1.02, AXP -1.89 and XLF 26.66 -.37 (1.37%).

 

 

OIL, $57.91 -3.51 (5.71%) Today’s decline was a devastating decline for this market.  In the last 4 days we are -6.63 (10.36%) and from its recent high of $66.60, -9.27 (13.9%).  We have fallen through the lower Bollinger Band and hit support at $57.50, but we’ll have to take a stand aside to see what develops.  We were stopped out of our MRO call position on the 50% down rule.  All of the oil stocks were lower and XLE was $61.47 -2.05 (3.23%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,285.40 +11.20. Gold is in an area that I find difficult to trade.  We’ve fallen to support around $1,270 (today’s low was 1,269) and bounced slightly to close 2/3s up on the range even though down on the day.  This has happened several times starting a rally.  The issue is that the 5 and 20 day moving averages have crossed to the downside, so I am stuck here without a trade.

 

BITCOIN: closed $7,810 -140. BC has put on an explosive move but went parabolic and turned lower.  While this may not choke off the move, it has definitely gotten ahead of itself.  I said that $6,000 to 6,500 is a good area of support and that is where we stopped last week before turning higher again.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $9.99 -.18. We sold half @ $10.23 last week.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 5/22/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 23rd

 

Different Day, Different Problem for Chips

 

I Guess it Didn’t Rain on TGT Stores

 

Join Us Every Day, Link Below

 

 

We started down on a combination of QCOM and AAPL news.  We were down 100 by 10:00 and while we rallied back to +4 by 10:30, it was short-lived and by 11:15 we made a new nominal low -110.  After another failed try at a rally we fell to make the new low (although not by much) at 1:15 we started to move up but the release of the Fed minutes halted that move and by 2:45 we started back down.  We finished with the DJIA -100.72 (.39%), NASDAQ -34.88 (.45%), S&P 500 -8.09 (.28%), the Russell -13.62 (.88%) and the DJ Transports the biggest loser -177.89 (1.69%).  Market internals were not excessive but negative with NYSE volume 2.2:1 and A/D 9:5 while NASDAQ was 5:3 and 2:1 respectively.  There were 131 new highs in NY but only 53 on NAZ.  DJIA was 12 up, 18 down.  The biggest losers were BA -41, AAPL 27, GS 25, HD 17 and CAT 10.  Only 2 double digit gainers were MMM +17 and MRK +12.  Today was only the 6th up day in the past 32 for MMM.

 

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: QCOM was the feature with the FTC ruling that the company had violated rules to the detriment of all others in the group and after a 4-day fall on the other chip news earlier this week from $86.26 to 77.75, it fell as low as $67.97 and finished $69.31 -8.44 (10.86%).  This carried throughout the chips and tech that uses chips like AAPL and others.  NTAP was -2.89 (4.13%) at the close but had poor results after the close and fell to $60.60 and is now trading $63 – 4.10 more for a total loss of $6.99 or 10%).  LOW also missed numbers and after trading $95.41 finished $97.94 -13.16 (11.85%).  VFC missed and was down from $92.10 to 85.64 but rallied to close $90.33 -1.77 (1.92%).  Another “blacklist” issue with Chinese HIK Vision Digital Technology sent AMBA lower to close $39.20 -5.05 (11.41%).  PSTG, which I mentioned last night in this space continued lower again today and finished $15.50 -5.10 (24.76%).  On the upside of earnings were TGT with a sizable beat and finished $77.56 +5.60 (7.78%).  Makes you wonder if the weather that KSS cited as an issue didn’t quite make it to Target stores, or maybe TGT shoppers are just a hardier group.  After the close, and after every “talking head on CNBC and FOX Business” proclaimed how bad they were doing, L Brands (LB) down from $38 late last year to close $21.50 -1.18, beat and sent the stock straight to $24.29 +2.79 (12.98%).  Sea Limited (SE) up from $10.60 on Xmas eve, closed yesterday @25.39 before reporting a beat and received upgrades from Piper with a target raise from $25 to $35, and Stifel from $32 to $44 finished the day $31.50 +6.112 (24.06%).

 

TSLA continued its steep decline again today amid talk that Elon Musk may have “margin call” issues with his personal position with the stock held in accounts at brokerage firms.  His position is roughly 39,000,000 shares, but the issue is clouded by the fact that it’s nearly impossible to figure out his cost basis and the cross-security issues with convertibles and other holdings.  It would be pretty ugly if margin clerks, known to have no concern but to sell, started to liquidate the position.  I tried to figure out the probable price, using the recent (3-year average price) and after an hour of banging my head against the wall just gave up.  The stock finished $192.73 – 12.35 (6.02%).

 

And the HOMERUN of the day was easy to spot.  Little Obalon Therapeutics (OBLN) reported results from a 1400 patient trial “affirmed Safety and Effectiveness of their Weight Loss System.  The stock had been in steady decline from just over $8 last January and a drop from $1.30 in April had a range today of $ .37 to $1.64 and finished $1.30 + .91 or 233.33%.  Is this a great country or what???

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were HIGHER with just a few lower like TEVA -.30 (2.53%), and ICPT -1.48 (1.69%).  The rest were CELG +.11, BIIB +2.12, ABBV +.71, REGN +10.14 (3.27%), ISRG +1.81, MYL -.02, VRTX +3.25 (1.92%), BHC -.05, INCY +.24, and IBB $104.80 +.45 (.43%).

 

CANNABIS: stocks were HIGHER with TLRY +1.66, CGC +1.18, CRON +.60, GWPH +3.21 (1.74%), ACB -.06, PYX +.19, APHA -.07, NBEV +.23 (4.28%), ACRGF +.92 (5%), CURLF -.19, and MJ $34.07 +.18 (.53%).

 

DEFENSE: were LOWER across the board and ITA $204.56 -4.49 (2.15%).

 

RETAIL: was LOWER and the brands following along.  The only 2 names higher were TGT (see above) and UAA + .52 (2.18%) and              XRT $42.26 -.80 (1.86%).

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MIXED with GOOGL +1.41, AMZN +.97, AAPL -4.15 on yet another downgrade, FB +.47, NFLX +5.53, NVDA -2.96, TSLA (see above) -14.31 (6.99%), BABA -4.71, BIDU -1.99, IBM -.37, BOX +.14, CAT -1.25, BA -6.25, and XLK $74.59 -.39 (.52%).

  

FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -3.99, JPM -.93, BAC -.22, MS -.90, C -1.48, PNC -.06, AIG +.06, TRV +.49, AXP -.25 and XLF $27.03 -.16 (.59%).

OIL, $61.42 -1.71 Today’s decline was based on supply numbers.  We were expecting a draw-down and got a sizable build. There are now 4 tops within this 13- day consolidation between 63.48, $63.33, and the earlier $63.68, and the high of $63.96.  We will see if the support just under the market will hold, and we still need a close over $63.60 still stands in the way of a start for the next stage of this rally.  We now own the MRO 6/16 calls @ $ .50 and they closed $ .36.  The stocks were all lower and XLE finished $63.52 -1.00 (1.55%).

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,274.20 + 1.00. Gold is in an area that I find difficult to trade.  We’ve fallen to support around $1,270 (today’s low was 1,269) and bounced slightly to close 2/3s up on the range even though down on the day.  This has happened several times starting a rally.  The issue is that the 5 and 20 day moving averages have crossed to the downside, so I am stuck here without a trade.

 

BITCOIN: closed $7950 - 100. BC has put on an explosive move but went parabolic and turned lower.  While this may not choke off the move, it has definitely gotten ahead of itself.  I said that $6,000 to 6,500 is a good area of support and that is where we stopped last week before turning higher again.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $10.17 -.23. We sold half @ $10.23 last week.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 5/21/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 22nd

 

Chips Recover

 

HAUWEI Given a Reprieve

Retail Earnings Miss

 

Join Us Every Day, Link Below

 

 

We started up from the opening bell and continued to build on the gains until we went sideways from about 11:00 and rallied to make new highs of the day in the last hour of trading.  The high of the day was +222 made around 3:45 and we closed +197.43 (.77%) with NASDAQ +83.34 (1.08%), S&P 500 +24.13 (.85%), the Russell+20.28 (1.33%) and the DJ Transports +50.15 (.48%) with the truckers weighing down that group.  Market internals continued to favor the NYSE with volume and A/D both coming in at 4:1 while NASDAQ was higher but volume only 3:1 and A/D 2.3:1.  The new highs picked up on NYSE to 120 while NAZ was only 67.  DJIA was 25:5 up with the losers only in low single digits while the gainers were led by the usual suspects; BA +39, UNH 27, AAPL 24, CAT & UTX 17 and GS 11 DPs.

 

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: earnings dominated the news today an AZO started the parade with a beat and the stock finished near its highs $1032.57 +54.74 (5.6%) and took the related names, AAP and ORLY higher by 2.62 (1.65%) and 8.65 (2.44%) respectively.  In retail TJX was first to report and registered a beat and the stock was about unchanged to slightly lower but by the open it was up 1% and finished the day near the high but only up .29 (.55%).  KSS was a miserable miss on all metrics citing promotional sales weighing on margins and shipping costs.  The company said this is likely to continue.  The stock, down from over $75 just a month ago finished the day $55.14 -7.77 (12.35%).  HD was a slight miss but after trading -5 managed to close just off the highs +.50 (.26%).  JCP missed and although it traded $ .90 pre-open, the range on regular hours showed a low of $1.02 and a close of $1.07 - .08 (6.96%)…not a lot of percent left on that one.  After the close JWN missed both top and bottom and issued poor guidance and is trading $34.60 -3.26 (8.87%), breaking its low of $35.10 from July 2016.  Remember that the Nordstrom family tried to take this company private a year ago at $50 and the offer was deemed too low.  On the plus side URBN beat top and bottom and although it traded up to $28.55, it also fell to $25.52 and is currently $26.96 -.15.

 

Pure Storage (PSTG) a data solutions company missed on all metrics and fell over 18% to $16.16 but has recovered slightly to $17.60 - $3.00 (14.5%).

 

Other names in the news were ARRY, had positive Trial results for its metastatic colorectal cancer drug and the stock had its biggest day to move to new all-time highs at $26.82 and finished $25.77 +4.81 (22.95%).

 

The disaster du jour was a tight race with MNK giving a good run for the money after falling from $27.33 in late February to close yesterday $13.03 -1.65 (11.24%) and then following through today to trade $8.45 before closing $9.87 - $3.16 (24.25%) on news of a warning about a regulatory dispute over rules governing outpatient drug rebates and said it may have to pay and additions $600 Million in retroactive rebates.

 

But the winner was BCRX, Biocryst Pharma, published trial results that raised more questions than expected and the stock, down from $9.26 just last month and closed $7.39, opened today $3.64, fell to $3.10 and finished $3.48 -3.91 (52.91%)…Clearly the Disaster Du Jour for today.  

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were HIGHER with every name on my list up on the day.  The biggest gainers TEVA +.36 (3.13%), ICPT +2.81 (3.31%), INCY +1.85 (2.41%), REGN +7.38 (2.44%), and VRTX +3.39 (2.05%).  The IBB was $104.35 +2.03 (1.98%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were HIGHER with TLRY +.40, CGC +1.63 (3.77%), CRON +.85 (5.76%), GWPH +5.12 (2.85%), ACB +.15, PYX +.31, APHA +.27 (4.07%), NBEV +.19 (3.65%), ACRGF -.28, CURLF -.10, and MJ $33.86 +.61 (1.83%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were HIGHER across the board with BWXT the biggest gainer +1.11 (2.33%) and ITA $209.05 +3.27 (1.59%).

 

 

RETAIL: was MIXED and the brands doing better with the earnings reported above.  M +.02, JWN -2.91 (7.77%), KSS -7.91 (12.57%), DDS +.58, JCP -.09 (7.83%), WMT -.53, TGT +.12, TJX +.29, RL +2.05, UAA +.11, LULU +2.38, NKE +.65, TPR +.66, CPRI +.65 and XRT $42.85 +.34 (.80%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MOSTLY HIGHER with GOOGL +9.78, AMZN -2.47, AAPL +3.30, FB +2.06, NFLX +5.99, NVDA +3.11, TSLA -.66, BABA +3.09, BIDU +2.99, IBM +1.13, BOX +.28, CAT +2.54, BA +5.46, and XLK $75.09 +1.02 (1.38%).

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.87, JPM +.37, BAC +.26, MS +.52, C +1.01, PNC +.74, AIG -.30, TRV -.27, AXP +1.13, XLF $27.17 +.26 (.97%), and KBE $43.64 +.34 (.79%).

 

OIL, $63.13 -.08 Today’s range produced a short-range “inside day,” generally considered meaningless. There are now 4 tops within this 13- day consolidation between 63.48, $63.33, and the earlier $63.68, and the high of $63.96.  We still need a close over $63.60 still stands in the way of a start for the next stage of this rally.  We now own the MRO 6/16 calls @ $ .50 and they closed $ .53.  The stocks were higher and XLE finished $64.52 +.74 (1.16%).

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,273.20 -4.10. Gold is in an area that I find difficult to trade.  We’ve fallen to support around $1,270 (today’s low was 1,269) and bounced slightly to close 2/3s up on the range even though down on the day.  This has happened several times starting a rally.  The issue is that the 5 and 20 day moving averages have crossed to the downside, so I am stuck here without a trade.

 

BITCOIN: closed $8,050 +200. BC has put on an explosive move but went parabolic and turned lower.  While this may not choke off the move, it has definitely gotten ahead of itself.  I said that $6,000 to 6,500 is a good area of support and that is where we stopped last week before turning higher again.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $10.40 +.45. We sold half @ $10.23 last week.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 5/20/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 21st

 

Chips Sink the Market

Trade War Fears Hurts Tech

 

HAUWEI Blackballed by Trump

 

Join Us Every Day, Link Below

 

 

We started lower this morning and it only got worse all day for the tech and especially chip stocks.  AAPL’s downgrade certainly didn’t help and by 10:00 we had made the low in the Dow -204.  After we rallied back to almost unchanged (-14) we went sideways to lower and after another test of the downside -167 we closed a bit higher at 25,679.90 -84.10 (.33%) with NASDAQ the biggest loser -113.90 (1.45%), S&P 500 -19.30 (.67%), the Russell -10.80 (.70%) and the DJ Transports -31.52 (.30%).  Market internals were pretty tame for a day that saw the QQQ’s out-perform to the downside by 5:1 vs the Dow.  NYSE was volume 3:2 and A/D 2:1 while NASDAQ was 2.5:1 and 2:1 respectively.  However, there were 119 new lows at NYSE and 120 at NAZ.  DJIA was 19 down, 11 up.  The biggest losers were AAPL 40, MMM 20, BA 15, MSFT 13 and NKE and HD 12 DPs.  Only one stock, UNH was up double digits +31 DPs.

 

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: AAPL was downgraded and the price target lowered to $174 from 180 at HSBC.  This was the second major downgrade for the company.  Trade tensions and the new action taken against Hauwei hurt the chips, since they are a major buyer from several U.S. companies.  XLNX, which fell from $140 to 110 in 3 days in late April had consolidated for the better part of a month but fell again from 116 to 98 in the last 4 days.  Others like AVGO fell $40 in the past 4 days as have MU $38.70 to 34.33, the SMH (Semi ETF) fell from 120.70 on 4/24 to close today 101.24, over 18%.  As mentioned above, the QQQ was the biggest loser down 5 times the DJIA today.

 

Sprint (S) and TMUS got FCC approval for their merger and both were higher on the news.  S traded as high as $7.90 but closed $6.95 +.77 (12.46%).  T-Mobile finished the day mid-range at $78.29 +2.92 (3.87%).  The only issue now is a Department of Justice ruling in its favor to move forward to closing.

 

PDD, the Chinese e-commerce platform reported and while the company reported a loss, it was a better than expected report.  Unfortunately, it was greeted as a disappointment and the stock finished $20.78 -1.92 (8.46%).  The stock is off 33% from its high since early March.  Fears of the continuing trade war didn’t help it either.

 

The HOMERUN of the day was OTLK, Outlook Therapeutics of Cranbury N.J. has come off a decline that bottomed late last week after a 1:8 reverse on 3/18.  The adjusted high for the stock $10.96 (2/14) and after a collapse from $7.71 to $1.65 over 4 days in April, it slid lower to hit $ .85 last Wednesday has made a 3-day move to $3.00 +.90 (42.86%) today and is trading $3.60 + another 20%.  The company is in 2 Phase 3 trials for its formulation for treatment of “wet age-related macular degeneration.  The stock was recommended by Oppenheimer with A $12 price target.

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were LOWER, CELG - .92, BIIB +1.48, ABBV +.36, REGN -2.37, ISRG -6.92, MYL -.22, TEVA -.10, VRTX -3.00, BHC -.83 (3.31%), INCY -.37, ICPT -1.48 and IBB $102.32 -1.45 (1.40%).

  

CANNABIS: stocks were MIXED with TLRY -1.95, CGC -1.48, CRON -.18, GWPH +3.83, ACB -.21, PYX -.95, APHA -.21, NBEV +.01, ARCGF +.23, CURLF +.13, and MJ $33.30 -.37 (1.10%).

 

DEFENSE: were HIGHER with LMT +4.02, RTN +3.93, NOC +8.31, GD +2.92, BWXT -.47, TXT -.46, UTX -.27, TDY +1.09, and ITA $205.72 +.02 (.01%).

 

RETAIL: was MIXED again and plenty of earnings due this week.  M -.19, JWN +.75, KSS -.40, DDS -.35, JCP +.03, WMT +.91, TGT +1.46, TJX +.45, RL +.45, UAA +.24, UAA +.24, LULU +1.15, NKE -1.47, TPR -.03, CPRI -.02, and XRT $42.51 -.14 (.33%).

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were LOWER with BIDU the big loser again -10.25 (8%), GOOGL -20.41, AMZN -6.25, AAPL -5.65 (see above), FB -1.70, NFLX -5.54, NVDA -4.28, TSLA -7.13, BABA -8.55 (5.04%), IBM +1.09, BOX -.42, CAT +.09, BA -2.23, and XLK $74.28 -1.10 (1.46%).

  

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +.55, JPM +.82, BAC +.04, MS +.12, C +.12, PNC +1.12, AIG +.06, TRV +.68, AXP +.77, and XLF $26.95 +.07 (.26%) and KBE $43.30 +.12 (.28%).

 

OIL, $63.21 + .29 The move lower in the last several days was a normal pull-back after the break-out. Today’s move back above the recent high to $63.48 shows that the oil is trying to move higher.  There are now 3 tops within this 11- day consolidation including today’s 63.48, the prior high of $63.33, and the earlier $63.68.  Today’s new consolidation high $63.96 looked great but the selloff closed it under $63.60 still stands in the way of a start for the next stage of this rally.  We now own the MRO 6/16 calls @ $ .50 and they closed $ .45.  The stocks were mixed to higher and XLE finished $63.78 +.03 (.05%).

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,277.30 + 1.60. I could not have been more wrong on this as we bought GLD puts on Friday afternoon figuring that news over the weekend would signal economic weakness and therefore no reason to expect a break to the upside.  Everything worked out exactly as planned, EXCEPT, that the gold reacted to the upside, crushing the puts.  I am watching this as a short on any rally towards $1,284 or so.

 

BITCOIN: closed $7,850 +670. BC has put on an explosive move but went parabolic and turned lower.  While this may not choke off the move, it has definitely gotten ahead of itself.  I said that $6,000 to 6,500 is a good area of support and that is where we stopped last week before turning higher again.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $9.94 -.61. We sold half @ $10.23 earlier this week.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 5/16/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 17th

Signs of Strength Continue

 

Trade War Fears Subside a Bit

CSCO and WMT Beat

 

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We started higher and built on yesterday’s strength and by 1:00 we had made the high of the day +314 before spending a few hours going sideways and giving up a little to close +214.66 (.84%), NASDAQ +75.90 (.97%), S&P 500 +25.36 (.89%), the Russell +8.97 (.56%), and DJ Transports the biggest winner for the second time this week +130.53 (1.25%).  Market internals were pretty tame with NYSE volume 3:2, A/D 2:1, NASDAQ 3:2 and 1.5:1 respectively.  The biggest change was the resurgence of new highs with 189 on NY and 117 on NAZ.  DJIA was 23:7 with only one loser in double digits, MMM -16 DPs.  I’ve written about MMM and its inability to rally, and since it broke down on 4/25, it has been down $47.94 (21.8%) and has only managed to close positive only 4 times and never more than $1.14.  I have no idea why anyone would want to own this one for more than a quick trade for a day or two.

 

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: As mentioned here last night CSCO was a solid beat and it gapped up and over doubled last night’s rally closing $55.93 + 3.49 (6.66%).  WMT got off to a great start, and although it closed $101.31 +1.43 (1.43%) it traded as high as $103.96, testing the high of the year at $104.18.  A look at the long-term chart (monthly) shows a nicely formed “pennant” that if it were to breakout could make a move like several other mega-cap names that have done the same.  Those are MSFT, DIS, and MCD, which after breaking above multi-year highs made major moves higher.

 

Chip stocks were especially hard hit today after a prohibition on sales of certain “high-tech” products to Chinese venders.  XLNX, MU, SWKS and QCOM all suffered and the move puts into question the timing and ability of Hauwei to be able to continue to compete not only here in the US, but also in the EU.

 

In conjunction with another major event, The Association of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) conference scheduled for next month, there was a huge “data-dump” last night by companies presenting their trial data to date for examination prior to the event.  Several of those companies have already seen solid gain today.  IOVA $15.28 +4.05 (36.06%), BPMC $81.09 +3.89 (5.04%), and MGNX $18.00 +1.73 (10.63%) were beneficiaries.

 

EOLS was lower today on the news that Alphaeon is going to be a seller of 4 Million share of EOLS.  Much as I tried, I can’t find anything about how the private company acquired these shares or what their relationship with EOLS might be.  None of the shares are being offered by EOLS.  EOLS has just recently gotten FDA approval and will ship their first order of Jeuveau in the US.  I have seen several commercials on TV for the “botox” like product recently.  EOLS had moved from $10.22 on Xmas eve to trade as high as $30.25, but today’s news sent it lower to close $18.39 -3.88 (17.42%).

 

After the close we had earnings from AMAT with a beat top and bottom and good guidance.  The stock is trading $43.28 +1.62 (3.79%), as did NVDA with the same results top, bottom and guidance and it is now $168.98 + 8.74 (5.4%).  On the other side of the ledger, PINS reported for the first time since it became a public company and it was a disappointment with a miss of $ .21, just in-line revenues and poor guidance going forward.  The stock closed $30.86 +2.23 (7.8%) is now trading $25.22 – 5.64 (18.27%).  And congrats go to CLS, who was in the Discord room when we discussed this and bought PINS 5/24 puts.  Just use the link above and join us…

 

BIDU also missed top, bottom and gave light guidance.  The stock closed $153.72 and is now trading $140.21 -12.29 (8.06%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were HIGHER, CELG +.55, BIIB +.28, ABBV +.72, REGN +2.19, ISRG +2.59, MYL +.16, TEVA -.04, INCY +1.65 (2.7%), ICPT +.21 and $104.50 +1.13 (1.09%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were MIXED with TLRY -1.25, CGC -.32, CRON -.01, GWPH +.02, ACB +.17 (1.96%), PYX +.62 (3.4%), APHA -.08, NBEV +.02, ACRGF +.11, CURLF -.28 and MJ $33.94 +.09 (.27%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were HIGHER with LMT +5.24, RTN +2.16, NOC +10.22 (3.47%), GD +2.58, BWXT +.30, TXT +.89, UTX +1.27, TDY +2.27, and ITA $207.29 +3.08 (1.51%).

 

 

RETAIL: was MIXED again with the brands doing slightly better.  M -.22, JWN -.43, KSS -.45, DDS -6.65 (10.49%) on follow-thru from last night’s miss on revenues, JCP -.03, WMT +1.37 (see above), TGT +.15, TJX +.35, RL -.93, UAA +.35, LULU +3.92, NKE +.48, TPR +.32 CPRI +.06 and XRT $42.96 +.02 (.05%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MIXED with BIDU the big loser on its earnings miss -12.65 (8.32%) and GOOGL +13.70, AMZN +36.65, AAPL -.86, FB +.78, NFLX +5.18, NVDA +11.09 (6.95%) see above, TSLA -3.50, BABA -2.40, IBM +1.12, BOX +.31, CAT -.89, BA +8.71, and XLK $76.09 +.79 (1.05%).

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +3.08, JPM +1.43, BAC +.34, MS +.29, C +1.21, PNC +2.42, AIG +.38, TRV +.89, AXP +2.18, and XLF $27.10 +.31 (1.16%) and KBE $43.50 +.47 (1.09%).

 

OIL, $62.87 +.85 The move lower in the last several days was a normal pull-back after the break-out. Today’s move back above the recent high to $63.48 shows that the oil is trying to move higher.  There are now 3 tops within this 11- day consolidation including today’s 63.48, the prior high of $63.33, and the earlier $63.68.  A close above $63.60 should start the next stage of this rally.  The stock was mostly higher with XLE $64.40 +.35 (.55%).  I am looking at MRO, OXY, and the XLE for the move.

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,286.20 -11.60. I could not have been more wrong on this as we bought GLD puts on Friday afternoon figuring that news over the weekend would signal economic weakness and therefore no reason to expect a break to the upside.  Everything worked out exactly as planned, EXCEPT, that the gold reacted to the upside, crushing the puts.  I didn’t sell them since they gapped down to pennies, and really afforded no real value, and the reversal today may carry through the $121 strike for the puts.

 

BITCOIN: closed $7,875 -350. BC has put on an explosive move but went parabolic and turned lower.  While this may not choke off the move, it has definitely gotten ahead of itself.  $6,000 to 6,500 is a good area of support and while I sold half yesterday at $10.23, I still am holding the balance.  It is speculated to be Chinese dumping US$s in favor of Bitcoin.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $9.94 -.61. We sold half @ $10.23 earlier this week.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 5/15/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 16th

 

Some Signs of Strength

 

6 Month Delay in EU Auto Tariffs

A Welcome Move

 

Join Us Everyday, Link Below

 

 

We started off down and hit the low of the day -190 but after spending a second day below the lower Bollinger Band, and making a lower low than yesterday, but not the close from Monday’s 617 drop, the market turned up and made what is considered a bullish move to a higher high, signaling at least a short-term bottom.  That doesn’t mean that we can’t test the lows, making it uncomfortable to be long, but a good sign nonetheless.  Closes were DJIA +115.97 (.45%), NASDAQ +87.66 (1.13%), S&P 500 +16.55 +.58%), the Russell +5.21 (.34%), DJ Transports +21.70 (.21%) and the QQQ, the biggest gainer +2.55 (1.41%).  Market internals were NYSE 3:2 volume and A/D 2:1, NASDAQ 1.9:1 and 3:2 respectively.  Not great, but passable if we can build on it.  The DJIA was 23 up, 6 down, and UTX unchanged.  BA and V were the biggest gainers +18 DPs, but most in single digits.  There were none down more than 7 DPs.  There is clearly a need for better internals, but after the last 1,467 Dow Points in 8 days, a temporary bottom is fine, as a start.

 

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: Macy’s reported today and while they beat, and the stock traded higher in premarket trading, the overall sentiment, including a disappointing retail sales report sent the stock lower on the day.  DDS missed on revenues and was -5.36 (8.37%).

 

BABA also reported and it closed higher on the day, +2.76 (1.58%) and shrugged off concern about the trade war.  Children’s Place didn’t fare so well and after a surprise beat it finished -7.74 (6.9%) after trading higher premarket.  OSTK CEO Patrick Byrne sold 500,000 shares this week and the stock fell 2.02 in heavy trading closing $10.87 for a loss of 15.67%.

 

CSCO beat and gave good guidance and after trading to $54.44 it closed 53.88 +1.44 (2.7%), and VRTU missed on earnings, revenues and gave poor guidance and the stock, up from a low of $37.80 to close the day $54.20 +1.63 collapsed to $32 before rallying back to $41.25 – 12.95 (24%).

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were HIGHER, but legal problems for MYL - .36 (1.76%) and TEVA -.64 (5.29%) kept them down again.  The rest of the group was higher with IBB $103.37 +.93 (.91%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were MIXED with ACB the standout disappointing last night and opening lower only to turn early in the day and finish $8.65 +.27 (3.22%).  NBEV, which had no specific news today finished $5.14 -.14 (2.65%).  MJ was $33.85 +.56 (1.68%).

 

DEFENSE: were NIXED with LMT -1.19, RTN -.38, NOC +.36, GD -1.48, BWXT -.69, TXT unch., UTX +.22, TDY +2.06, and ITA $204.21 +.22 (.11%).

 

 

RETAIL: was MIXED with the brands doing slightly better.  M -.11, JWN +.82, KSS -1.25, DDS -5.36 (see above), JCP -.04, WMT +.43, TGT -.36, TJX -.01, RL +1.73, UAA -.32, LULU +2.22, NKE +.51, TPR +.30, CPRI +.25, and XRT $42.94 -.11 (.26%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were HIGHER with the QQQ stocks running much higher with GOOGL +45.94 (4.08%), AMZN +33.38 (1.81%), AAPL +2.09, FB +5.67 (3.14%), NFLX +9.14 (2.64%), NVDA -3.01, TSLA -1.06, BABA +1.97 (see above), BIDU +.61, IBM +1.09, BOX +.13, CAT +.01, BA +3.33 and XLK $75.15 +.66 (.89%).

 

FINANCIALS: were MIXED with most down fractions.  I consider this a real problem since you don’t have a sustained move higher without participation of financials.  XLF was $26.79 -.10 (.37%).

 

OIL, $62.02 +.24The move lower in the last several days was a normal pull-back after the break-out. Yesterday I said, “But this morning’s break above $62.93 and high of $63.33 followed by the fall to down on the day may be a signal that we are going lower.”  Tonight the story was a little different with no serious follow-thru to break us lower, we stabilized and while we may have to hang around here for some further direction.  However, if we break above that high at $63.33, we should move toward $67 - $70.  The stocks were higher with the XLE finishing $63.99 +.27 (.42%).

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,297.80 +1.50. I could not have been more wrong on this as we bought GLD puts on Friday afternoon figuring that news over the weekend would signal economic weakness and therefore no reason to expect a break to the upside.  Everything worked out exactly as planned, EXCEPT, that the gold reacted to the upside, crushing the puts.  I didn’t sell them since they gapped down to pennies, and really afforded no real value, and the chance of a reversal tomorrow or Wednesday may give a better recovery.

 

BITCOIN: closed $8,225 +445. BC has put on an explosive move but went parabolic and turned lower.  While this may not choke off the move, it has definitely gotten ahead of itself.  $6,000 to 6,500 is a good area of support and while I sold half yesterday at $10.23, I still am holding the balance.  It is speculated to be Chinese dumping US$s in favor of Bitcoin.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $10.55 +1.07.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 5/14/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 15th

 

 

 

An Unimpressive Day

 

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We started off slowly and then built on the rally and topped out around 2:00 at +350 or so and then just stayed quiet until the 3:30 -4:00 when it fell by 100 to close +207.06 (.82%), NASDAQ =87.47 (1.14%), S&P 500 +22.54 (.80%), the Russell +20.06 (1.32%) and the DJ Transports the biggest winner +149.30 (1.45%).  Market internals were also unimpressive after yesterday with NYSE volume 4:1 and A/D 3.2:1 while NASDAQ was 3.2:1 and 2.5:1 respectively.  While the DJIA were 25:5, the gains look anemic when compared with yesterday’s losses.  The biggest winners were BA +39, AAPL 20, V 20, TRV 16, CAT 15, UTX, IBM, & DIS 13 each.  The biggest loser was UNH -22 DPs.

 

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: Ten-cent Music (TME) had its second day of selling pressure caused by the disappointment in earnings and the resignation of its CEO.  The stock closed Friday $16.59, down from just under $20 last month and fell with the rest of the market yesterday, but instead of a bounce today it traded down to $14.31 before closing $15.01, near the high of the day but still down $ .99 (6.19%).

 

TEVA was in the same boat, well off its recent high of $20.21 in February and down from Fridays close of $14.36, it was -2.13 yesterday and finished on its low today down another $.13 @ $12.10 (1.06%).  While not a big drop today, it had no bounce with the market.  MYL fared slightly better to close +.33 (1.64%) today, but it was down from $28.26 or $7.85 (28%) in the last week.

 

Agilent (a) missed and gave poor guidance and the stock, down from $82.24 last month is trading $69.75 -6.27 (8.25%).

 

TLRY reported better than expected numbers that have lifted then entire sector in the after-hours.  While their loss widened, it was less than expected and their revenues were up 300%.  Four days ago the stock was $44 and it closed today $48.74 +2.27 (4.88%) and is trading 52 after hitting $53 tonight.

 

There were plenty of stocks that just did not participate today.  GOOGL, which really has no China exposure was -11.73 (1.03%), FB was down 1.02, while some of the China plays like BABA was +5.47 (3.2%) and BIDU +.85.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were HIGHER, with CELG +.10, BIIB +3.52, ABBV +1.57, REGN -.75, ISRG +8.60, MYL AND TEVA (see above), VRTX +2.11, BHC +.36, INCY +.36, ICPT +3.02 (3.61%) and IBB $102.44 +1.12 (1.11%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were HIGHER with TLRY (see above) +4.71 (10.14%), CGC +1.86 (4.25%), CRON +1.15 (8.07%), GWPH +3.78, ACB +.53 (6.61%), PYX +1.91 (11%), APHA +.20 (2.96%), NBEV +.13, ACRGF +.28, CURLF -.04, and MJ $33.65 (3.47%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were HIGHER with LMT +2.47, RTN -.72, NOC +2.32, GD +1.47, BWXT +.69, TXT +.99, UTX +2.02, TDY -4.14, and ITA $203.99 +2.06 (1.02%).

 

 

RETAIL: was HIGHER with the brands following and M + .45, JWN +.55, KSS +1.53, DDS +.84, JCP +.07 (5.83%), WMT +1.01, TGT +.51, TJX +.10, RL -4.22, UAA +.74, LULU +3.11, NKE +1.14, TPR +.56, CPRI +.27 and XRT $43.20 +.73 (1.72%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were HIGHER with GOOGL -11.73, AMZN +16.32, AAPL +2.51, FB -.89, NFLX +.49, NVDA +3.55, TSLA +5.24, BABA +5.39, BIDU +.85, IBM +1.90, BOX +.52, CAT +2.20, BA +6.41 and XLK $74.64 +1.33 (1.81%).

 

 

FINANCIALS: were HIGHER with GS +1.32, JPM +.87, BAC +.42, MS -.22, C +.82, PNC +1.31, AIG +.76, TRV +2.30, AXP +1.11, and XLF $26.92 +.24 (.90%).

 

OIL, $61.78 +.74 The move lower in the last several days was a normal pull-back after the break-out. Yesterday I said, “But this morning’s break above $62.93 and high of $63.33 followed by the fall to down on the day may be a signal that we are going lower.”  Tonight the story was a little different with no serious follow-thru to break us lower, we stabilized and while we may have to hang around here for some further direction.  However, if we break above that high at $63.33, we should move toward $67 - $70.  The stocks were higher with the XLE finishing $63.74 +.79 (1.25%).

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,296.30 -5.50. I could not have been more wrong on this as we bought GLD puts on Friday afternoon figuring that news over the weekend would signal economic weakness and therefore no reason to expect a break to the upside.  Everything worked out exactly as planned, EXCEPT, that the gold reacted to the upside, crushing the puts.  I didn’t sell them since they gapped down to pennies, and really afforded no real value, and the chance of a reversal tomorrow or Wednesday may give a better recovery.

 

BITCOIN: closed $7,780 -170. BC has put on an explosive move but went parabolic and turned lower.  While this may not choke off the move, it has definitely gotten ahead of itself.  $6,000 to 6,500 is a good area of support and while I sold half yesterday at $10.23, I still am holding the balance.  It is speculated to be Chinese dumping US$s in favor of Bitcoin.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $9.48 - .73.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 5/13/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 14th

 

 

When You Can’t Sell What You Want

You Sell What You Can.

 

Join Us Everyday, Link Below

 

 

The above headline sums up today’s market to a T.  The fact that the FAANG names were so badly hurt, with really no exposure to China (with the exception of AAPL) it becomes clear that they were selling everything that could be sold.  There were plenty of margin calls from last week’s sell-off and it is just human nature to “hope” that the biggest losers are closest to a rally and the selling takes place in the names that have profits, not losses.

 

Right from the open the volume was 10:1 down and really didn’t improve.  NYSE finished with volume 10:1 and A/D 6:1 while NASDAQ was only slightly better at 6:1 and 5:1 respectively.  There was only 1 DJIA stock higher, PG with a big gain of .10 or .68 DPs.  Not much of a silver lining.  The top losers, all with double and even triple digit losses were: BA 117, AAPL 78, GS 48, CAT 41, UTX 36, HD 29, IBM 27, MSFT 26 and V 24, so those 9 equaled 426 DPs (Dow Points).

 

 

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day.  It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: I’m not going to go too in depth with the names in the news since no matter where you look you’ll see the same thing.  The only names that I would point out that had specific news are AAPL, getting the Court ruling against it for class action suits for the APP store price fixing, and the drug stocks, MYL and TEVA for their part in the generic drug price fixing.  All three probably been down anyway, but they had news attached to them.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were LOWER, with only MYL – 2.08 (9.38%) and TEVA -2.11 (14.69%) had specific news.  The rest were lower by as little as .25% up to 3.8%.  IBB was $101.01 -3.89 (3.8%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with CRON -1.15 (7.47%), CGC -3.86 (8.13%), and PYX -1.14 (6.46%).  MJ was $32.01 -2.29 (6.68%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were LOWER with LMT -5.98, RTN -3.73, NOC -5.32, GD -6.28, BWXT -1.68 and the biggest losers TXT -2.39 (4.64%) and UTX -6.07 (4.43%), and ITA $200.73 -7.24 (3.48%).

 

 

RETAIL: was LOWER with the brands following and the group one of the worst losers in today’s action.  M -.89 (3.96%), JWN -1.82 (4.62%), KSS -2.66 (3.97%), JCP -.06 (4.76%), WMT -2.08 (2.04%), TGT -3.14 (4.21%), TJX -1.76 (3.24%), RL -4.77 (3.84%), UAA -.90 (4.13%), LULU -7.18 (4.13%), NKE -1.85 (2.2%), TPR -2.24 (6.95%), CPRI -2.19 (5.12%) and XRT $42.47 -1.66 (3.76%).  This group, especially WMT and TGT rely more on products from China.

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were LOWER with losses ranging from 2.8 to 6.4%.

The biggest losers were AAPL -12.43 (6.3%), NVDA -10.82 (6.41%), BOX -1.39 (6.87%), IBM -4.32 ((3.19%) and BA -18.05 (5.09%).  XLK was $73.00 -3.18 (4.17%).

 

 

FINANCIALS: were LOWER with GS -7.08 (3.5%), JPM -3.49 (3.1%), BAC -1.38 (4.67%), MS -2.16 (4.68%), C -3.61 (5.32%), PNC -3.99 (3.01%), AIG -.94 (1.82%), TRV -.55 (.38%), AXP -2.79 (2.36%), and XLF 26.59 -.89 (3.24%).

 

 

OIL, $61.04 -.62 The move lower in the last several days was a normal pull-back after the break-out. But this morning’s break above $62.93 and high of $63.33 followed by the fall to down on the day may be a signal that we are going lower.  The tariff effect on global growth may spell the end of the energy rally. The pull-back of 10% (66.60 to 60.04) is bigger than any of the moves down since the $42.50 bottom late last year.  The stocks were lower across the board with the little ones having breaks lower by as much as 8.76% with the big names holding up a lot better.  XLE finished $62.95 -1.10 (1.72%).

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,301.80 +14.40. I could not have been more wrong on this as we bought GLD puts on Friday afternoon figuring that news over the weekend would signal economic weakness and therefore no reason to expect a break to the upside.  Everything worked out exactly as planned, EXCEPT, that the gold reacted to the upside, crushing the puts.  I didn’t sell them since they gapped down to pennies, and really afforded no real value, and the chance of a reversal tomorrow or Wednesday may give a better recovery.

 

BITCOIN: closed $7.945 +1,585. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   Today’s explosion is speculated to be Chinese dumping US$s in favor of Bitcoin.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $10.21 +1.61, and I sold half of that position @ $10.23 for a gain of $2,740.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs

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After the close 5/9/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 10th

 

 

 

Rally Off the Lows

Tomorrow’s News on Trade Will Rule

 

Join Us Everyday, Link Below

 

 

Today’s early market started with the follow-thru from yesterday’s last hour sell-off and by 11:30 we had hit the lows -449.  After 90 minutes of stabilization we rallied back and by 2:00 we were at the highs down only 86.  At the close we were lower by only 138.97 (.54%), about 2/3 up on the range.  NASDAQ was -32.73 (.41%), S&P 500 -8.70 (.30%), the Russell -4.92 (.31%) and DJ Transports, the best performer -10.52 (.10%).  Market internals were pretty close to even with NYSE volume 5:3 lower and A/D 4:3 while NASDAQ were 7:5 and 7:6 respectively.  DJIA wasn’t quite so even with only 8 higher.  The biggest losers were the same names again with BA 24, MMM 22, INTC 18 and AAPL 15 DPs.

 

 

 

 

 

I also started an “open forum” today on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock.  It was informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: Last night I wrote up the STMP story and today it just got worse.  In late trading it was $46.50 - 36.89 but it managed to turn those numbers around finishing the day $36.90 – 46.49 (55.75%).

TPR (formerly Coach) had good numbers this morning traded as high as $36.06 and finished $33.36 +2.61 (8.49%) in an ugly market.

 

ROKU reported after the close and was +6, but today it continued and broke out to new all-time highs at $83.17 +18.25 (28.11%).   Fibro-Gen (FGEN) reported better top and bottom lines but the results in a “pooling of interests,” risk-benefits analysis disappointed, relative to the product from JNJ.  The stock topped out near $61 at the end of February and had closed the day $45.67 but traded down to $31.21 in extended hours but rallied to finish $38.80 – 6.87 (15%).

 

Another Biopharma, Puma (PBYI) also beat both top and bottom line but in the analysis they quoted “net product revenue” for their newest drug and that was enough to take the stock from the $30.02 close down to $20.20 – 9.82 (31%).  Zillow (Z) reported and the numbers were higher in all segments and after the report traded up from $34.27 to close $41.00 + 6.83 (20%).

 

SYMC reported and bottom line was in-line but Revenues missed and the CEO resigned.  The stock, already down from $24.77 last month finished $18.87 -3.83 (17%).

 

And the HOMERUN of the day was Cool Holdings (AWSM) is in a pact to buy the Simply Mac division from GameStop to add 49 locations of the Apple repair business in 46 states.  The stock ended the day $2.31 but after the news it finished $3.55 +1.24 (53.7%).

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were LOWER, with only MYL +1.02 (4.66%) and ICPT the biggest loser -3.50 (4%).  IBB was $105.33 -.25 (.24%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with CRON -1.36 (8.8%) while NBEV the only winner @ $5.24 +14 (2.75%) and MJ $34.02 -.65 (1.87%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were MIXED with LMT +5.07, RTN +1.07, NOC +4.44, GD +4.30 and BWXT -.46, TXT -.90, UTX -.21 TDY -1.99 and ITA $207.27 +.10 (.05%).

 

 

RETAIL: was LOWER with the brands following.  The only winners were TPR (see above), RL _+.90, and CPRI +.80.  XRT $44.42 -.39 (.87%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were LOWER with GOOGL –2.88, AMZN -19.77, AAPL -2.18, FB -.76, NFLX -1.39, NVDA -3.91, TSLA -3.68, BABA +.86, BIDU -.58, IBM -.89, BOX -.03, CAT -.80, BA -3.65 and XLK $75.94 -.52 (.68%).

 

FINANCIALS: were MIXED with GS +1.03, JPM -.12, BAC -.09, MS -.13, C -.41, PNC -.05, AIG +.87, TRV +.30, AXP +.21, and XLF $27.30 -.06 (.22%), and KBE $44.63 -.02, (.04%).

 

 

OIL, $61.70 -.42 The move lower in the last several days was a normal pull-back after the break-out. But yesterday’s break to $60.04 took us right into the support I outlined in the comment on page 10 of the Weekly Strategies last night, and the move back and close not only up on the day, but over $2.00 off the low validates that support.  While we may back and fill here, today can turn out to be another interim bottom.  The pull-back of 10% (66.60 to 60.04) is bigger than any of the moves down since the $42.50 bottom late last year.  The stocks were mixed with CVX the big winner +3.69 (3.14%) on the news that they won’t make another offer for APC, and the XLE finished $63.75 unchanged.

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,285.20 +3.80. Last night gave us the opportunity to see the rally into resistance for a great place to re-short the gold.  Unfortunately, (again) by the time our markets were open it was $6.00 lower and we didn’t get the chance to buy any puts.  The late day rally gives us another chance to look at the resistance around $1,290 – 91.  Every day that we don’t move through that level makes me want to get short again.

 

BITCOIN: closed $6,055 + 160. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   We have held the support just over $5,025 and if we broke above $5,480 we can test $5,900- 6,100.  Today’s move over 5,650 is making the move look a little tired at a place (5750) that may be supply.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $8.23 + .39.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 5/8/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 9th

 

 Late Market Slide

 

All Indexes Go from Highs to Lows

in last 20 Minutes

 

Intel Warns on Revenues

 

Today’s early market started with the futures down and after a slightly lower open we spent 90 minutes going sideways to up and by 11:15 we made an early high +130 before spending 3 hours going sideways again until about 3:30 when it moved higher again to make a new high at +150 before falling off quickly and closing only +2.24 (.01%), NASDAQ -20.44 (.26%), S&P 500 -4.63 (.16%), The Russell -7.34 (.46%) and the DJ Transports -35.29 (.33%).  Market internals were pretty much meaningless with both the NYSE and NASDAQ volume both 11:9 Down and A/D 15:13 and 8:7 respectively.  The new highs list declined to 93 and 56.  DJIA stocks were split 15:15 and today’s “inside day” felt pretty much a non-event.

 

 

I also started an “open forum” today on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock.  It was informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.  We shared charts on the Gold reversal as it was happening.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: Intel held an analysts meeting this afternoon and the exec’s warned of a 2 to 3-year downturn in revenues and turned the stock from its high of 50.79 down to 49.07 -1.72 (3.4%).  It took the rest of the semis lower and the whole market sold off.  Inogen, (INGN) the company that plays all those annoying commercials on TV about carrying you own Oxygen making appliance instead of heavy canisters missed last night and was lower by $23.35 (25.62%) while JPM lowered their target from $172 to $72, and Stifel from $160 to $85.

 

If you think INGN had a tough day, take a look at STMP, Stamps.com. So, if your biggest business relationship is with a venerable U.S. corporation like the Post Office, what could go wrong?  I mean, the stock spent 7 years going from $12 to $284, right up until they lost their exclusive deal with USPS and the stock gapped down on 2/21 from $198 to $82.40.  After the close they reported a miss top and bottom lines and gave negative guidance and it fell from $83.39 to $46.50 -36.89 or another 44.2%.

 

Other earnings were NVTA with a miss gapping down to close $19.05 -4.81 (20.16%), PTLA with a disappointing loss also gapping but managing to close on the high of the day but still -3.10 (8.82%).  Potbelly (PBPB) the sandwich shops was up from the Xmas eve level of $7.17 to 9.42 missed and fell to 6.87 -1.98 (22.3%).  2U, Inc. (TWOU), a leader in digitally delivered education, reported numbers that also disappointed and the stock, up from $44.50 this year to a high of $80.49 fell all the way back to $44.77 -17.70 (28.33%).

 

Some big names reporting after the close were:

DIS with a beat traded $138.19 now 135.15 + 1.30

ROKU beat and +6 (10%)

ETSY beat top but missed Rev’s, traded to $61 and is 64 -4.08

CTL missed rev. and traded +.50, down .50 and is 11.19 -.24

 

AND, THE HOMERUN OF THE DAY, Workhorse (WKHS) mentioned as the electric truck maker to be in a deal to take-over the GM plant that was reportedly closing, with a range of $ .47 to $1.16 is trading $2.90 +$2.06 or just 245%.

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were MIXED, with CELG +.25, BIIB +1.96, ABBV -.45, REGN +6.60 (2.05%), ISRG +4.39, MYL +.37, TEVA -.06, VTRX -1.27, BHC +.84, INCY -.38, ICPT -2.00 (2.35%) and IBB $105.59 -.04 (.04%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were MIXED with TLRY -1.72 (3.64%), CGC +.47, CRON -.14, HWPH +1.38, ACB unchanged, PYX -.68 (3.53%), APHA +.23, NBEV -.09, ACRGF +.10, CURLF +.51 (4.77%), and MJ $34.67 -.09 (.26%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were MOSTLY HIGHER with LMT +3.28, RTN +.46, NOC +2.18, GD -2.19, BWXT +.24, TXT -.02, UTX +1.63, TDY -.47 and ITA $207.17 +1.76 (.86%).

 

 

RETAIL: was HIGHER with the brands following.  M -.09, JWN +.88, KSS +1.01, DDS +.38, JCP +.06 (4.76%), WMT -.95, TGT +.46, TJX +.63 RL +.48, UAA +.47, LULU +1.74, NKE +.46, TPR +.03, CPRI +.32, and XRT $44.81 +.10 (.22%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MOSTLY LOWER with GOOGL -8.08, AMZN -6.94, AAPL +.14, FB -.26, NFLX -6.11, NVDA +.94, TSLA 2.96, BABA -1.88, BIDU -2.77, IBM +.22, BOX +.10, CAT -1.67, BA +2.57, and XLK $76.46 -.09 (.12%).

 

 

FINANCIALS: were LOWER with GS -1.65, JPM -.58, BAC -.12, MS -.18, C +.06, PNC -.96, AIG -.34, TRV -.18, AXP -.73, XLF $27.36 -.06 (.22%) and KBE $44.65 -.46 (1.02%).

 

OIL, $62.12 +.72 The move lower in the last several days was a normal pull-back after the break-out. But Monday’s break to $60.04 took us right into the support I outlined in the comment on page 10 of the Weekly Strategies last night, and the move back and close not only up on the day, but over $2.00 off the low validates that support.  While we may back and fill here, today can turn out to be another interim bottom.  The pull-back of 10% (66.60 to 60.04) is bigger than any of the moves down since the $42.50 bottom late last year.  The stocks were mostly higher with CVX -.77, APC +.04, BP +.01, COP +.43, APA +.10, PSX -.65, MPC -3.98 (6.7%) on earnings miss and a “midstream logistics” merger, MRO +.10, RIG +.28, OAS -.01, HES +1.14, NE +.06, OXY +.51, XOM +.16, VLO -1.86, KMI +.13 and XLE $63.80 +.05 (.08%).

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,281.40 -4.20. Today we had another run-up and I issued new charts on the Discord site (link on page 1) as we were actually moving into the overhead resistance.  I also sent out a video, https://youtu.be/lhAQ3yDtGYM 

We finished down on the day, although I would have rather closed under 1,280, I believe we’re headed lower to test 1,265 or so.

 

BITCOIN: closed $5,895 + 55. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   We have held the support just over $5,025 and if we broke above $5,480 we can test $5,900- 6,100.  Today’s move over 5,650 is making the move look a little tired at a place (5750) that may be supply.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $7.84 + .03.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 8th

 

Yesterday’s Rally Fails to Hold

 

Join Us Tomorrow, Link Below

 

 

Today’s early market started with the futures down and an open -160 that couldn’t hold on, with each hourly bar having a lower high and lower low.  The cascade continued right through yesterday’s low by 12:15 and we were -457.  We rallied just under 100 DPs, but by 1:00 we had fallen to another new low and by 3:00 we were -617, but at the close we were -473.39 (only)1.79%, NASDAQ -159.53 (1.96%), S&P 500 -48.42 (1.65%), the Russell -32.66 (2.02%) and the biggest loser the DJ Transports -231.54 (2.12%).  The market internals were as you would expect; NYSE volume 5.7:1 and A/D 4.6:1 and NASDAQ 5:1 and 3.5:1 respectively.  Although we were down from the start, there were still 105 new highs on NYSE and 63 on NASDAQ.  Every DJIA stocks were lower with the biggest losers BA -100, AAPL -38, HD, UTX, MMM -33, & GS -26 DPs.  A very ugly day all around.

 

 

 

 

 

I also started an “open forum” today on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock.  It was informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.  It’s a great place to share ideas and get some insights.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: We had some follow-thru from last night’s earnings with SEDG bucked the overall trend of the day and finished $53.84 +9.96 (22.70%) and AIG was $50.30 +3.19 (6.77%).

 

As if it wasn’t an ugly enough day in general, there were several big negative developments for CPRX, in the form of a major competitor receiving an FDA approval for their pediatric patients with Lambert-Eaton myasthenic syndrome (LEMS) and the stock, which has had a steady rise this year from $1.85 to close yesterday $6.11 gave back 40% to close $3.69 -2.42.

 

XENT missed on earnings, beat on revenues and gave poor guidance and closed $25.10 -8.05 (24.28%).  PTCT had positive data on its tests and clinical benefits of its drug Risdiplam but couldn’t hold the early gains and finished $35.87 -.78 after trading $5 higher in the morning.

 

Mylan not only missed on revenues, but also told shareholders that they were taking charges for several state suits dealing with their acting “in collusion” with other drug companies to fix prices on generic drugs.  The stock finished $21.53 -6.73 (23.81%).

 

TRIP beat on top but missed on bottom lines and after closing $54.94 -1.28, traded $49.60 before finishing $51.50 -3.44 for a 8.5% loss.  And last INGN missed bottom line, had inline revenues but guided lower and the stock, which closed $91.14 -4.01 fell to $67.40 – 24.04 (26.4%).

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were LOWER, with only BHC +.29, the list was all down and IBB $105.95 -2.88 (2.65%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with the exception of GWPH +2.91 (1.62%) and most down 3 to 5%.  MJ was $34.76 -.75 (2.11%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were LOWER with only NOC +6.39 (2.19%) and TDY +.28.  The rest were down 1.5 – 3% and ITA closed $205.41 -5.08 (2.41%).

 

RETAIL: was LOWER with the brands following.  Most were lower by 1.25% to as much as 3.9%.  XRT was $44.71 -.79 (1.74%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were LOWER with GOOGL -14.60, AMZN -33.29, AAPL -5.73, FB -3.98, NFLX -8.67, NVDA -7.45, TSLA -8.24, BABA -6.67, BIDU -3.40, IBM -2.58, BOX -.54, CAT -3.05, BA -14.37 (3.87%) with XLK 76.55 -1.68 (2.15%).

 

 

FINANCIALS: were LOWER with only AIG higher by $3.39 on last night’s earning beat.  XLF was $27.42 -.46 (1.65%) and KBE $45.11 - .79 (1.72%).

 

 

OIL, $61.40 - .85 The move lower in the last several days was a normal pull-back after the break-out. But yesterday’s break to $60.04 took us right into the support I outlined in the comment on page 10 of the Weekly Strategies last night, and the move back and close not only up on the day, but over $2.00 off the low validates that support.  While we may back and fill here, today can turn out to be another interim bottom.  The pull-back of 10% (66.60 to 60.04) is bigger than any of the moves down since the $42.50 bottom late last year.  The stocks were mixed, but I like MRO, and I’ll be watching for any weakness to be a buyer.

 

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,285.60 +1.80. Last night gave us the opportunity to see the rally into resistance for a great place to re-short the gold.  Unfortunately, (again) by the time our markets were open it was $6.00 lower and we didn’t get the chance to buy any puts.  The late day rally gives us another chance to look at the resistance around $1,290 – 91.  Every day that we don’t move through that level makes me want to get short again.

 

BITCOIN: closed $5,840 +100. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   We have held the support just over $5,025 and if we broke above $5,480 we can test $5,900- 6,100.  Today’s move over 5,650 is making the move look a little tired at a place (5750) that may be supply.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $7.81 + .29.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 5/6/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 7th

 

 

Massive Rally Off the Lows

 

Sell-off Overdone

 

Join Us Tomorrow, Link Below

 

 

Today’s early market started with the futures down as much as -550 overnight with the S&P -52 and the NAZ Comp -150.  The issue was Mr. Trump’s tariff threat that he was raising the rates to 25% on Friday on $200 Billion of product from China.  So, we opened and made the low - 471 and started the long way back almost from the start.  After 2 hours we had come all the way back to -172 and spent 3 hours in a tight range before continuing higher to come back to – 35 before the close 66.47 (.25%), S&P -13.17 (.45%), NASDAQ -40.71 (.50%), the Russell +.95 (.06%), and DJ Transports -56.88 (.52%).  Market internals started off with NYSE volume 6:1 down but finished barely 2:1 negative and A/D went from 5:1 to close 4:3 while NASDAQ was 4:1 and finished 5:4 and A/D went from 4:1 to close 9:7. Even though both were lower, there were still 113 new highs on NYSE and 73 on NASDAQ.  DJIA was 2:1 lower with UNH the big gainer +59 DPs with no other double digit gainers and the losers were led by BA -33, AAPL -22, CAT -16, and NKE & MMM -15.  See below on MMM comments.

 

I also started an “open forum” today on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock.  It was informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving.  Today I furnished the BB chart and discussed it, and MRO, which I am looking at to buy on any weakness.

The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ  and I will be there and active from before the open and all day.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: For the past 2 weeks I have been harping on the continuing weakness in MMM, and today there was a talk given at the Ira Sohn conference by Larry Robbins of Glenview.  He stressed the fact that MMM and CC (Chemours, spun out of DD) have massive and unlimited exposure to lawsuits for a chemical that they produce.

Link:   https://www.cleanwateraction.org/2018/08/02/breaking-down-forever-chemicals-%E2%80%93what-are-pfas

 

The issue is that this is a “forever” chemical, PFAS, and it is produced at a facility on the shores of the Mississippi river in Minnesota.  The exposure to lawsuits caused the company to set aside $63 Million, but when they settled the Minn. The suit it was $850 million.  One lawsuit in one location.  Clearly this cast a shadow over both these companies.  MMM has traded down for 6 of the past 8 days from $219.75 to $180.13.  CC was $41.60 on 4/15 and closed today $31.61.  Clearly I’d be hard-pressed to come up with ANY reason to trade either of these two.

 

In M&A, we have Marvel (MRVL) acquiring Aquantia (AQ)for $13.25 in cash and the stock closed $12.95 +3.39 (35.46%).  The deal is expected to have annual run-rate synergies of $40 Million and to be accretive immediately.

 

Also in M&A, we have OXY increasing the cash component of their offer for APC, allowing for the use of shares diminished to the extent that will allow them to proceed without needing shareholder approval.  APC finished $75.49 +2.77 (3.81%) and OXY $58.77 +.82 (1.42%).  CVX, the original bidder finished $118.40 +1.13 (.96%) and has been gaining from $115 since OXY made its offer.

 

AXSM continued to gain as they made further announcements about their trials and the expedited development and Pivotal status for their depression drug.  The stock gained $1.20 to $19.15 (6.69%) today and has moved from a low of $2.52 since January.

 

On the earning front we had Solaredge (SEGD) hit the trifecta with a beat on bottom line, top line and guidance above expectations, sending the stock to $52.75 +8.84 (20.13%).

 

AIG had a MAJOR beat with $1.58 vs. $1.06, and better revenues with improvements to underwriting fundamentals.  The stock had been up from $39.56 for the year but traded up to $50.68 and is currently $50.30 + 3.19 (6.77%).

 

Bausch Health, (BHC), formerly Valeant, put its past behind it and although it reported a loss of $ .15 and missed revenues, gave well above consensus for the balance of the year.  The loss compared to last years $2.581Billion (7.36/share).  The stock fell from over $260 in 9/2015 to $8.31 in 4/2017.  The stock was $17.20 on Xmas eve but today’s numbers sent the stock to $25.48 +2.04 (8.7%).

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were MIXED to HIGHER, with CELG - .41, BIIB +4.89, ABBV +.64, REGN +7.34, ISRG -2.94, MYL +.25, VRTX +.89, BHC +1.76 (SEE ABOVE), INCY +1.94, ICPT -.20 and IBB $108.57 +.65 (.61%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were MIXED with the exception of GWPH +15.60 (8.89%) on earnings after the close, PYX +.65 (3.36%) and MJ $35.51 +.08 (.23%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were MIXED with LMT +1.40, RTN +.65, NOC -2.04, GD -1.33, BWXT +.79, TXT -.07, UTX -2.10, TDY +.93 and ITA $210.49 -.71 (.34%).

 

 

RETAIL: was LOWER with the brands following.  M -.05, JWN +.33, KSS -.19, DDS -.99, JCP -.04 (2.96%), WMT +.03, TGT _.45, TJX +.16, RL -3.07, UAA -.73 (3.21%), LULU -1.44, NKE -2.30 (2.68%), TPR +.31, CPRI -.36, and XRT $45.50 -.34 (.74%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were LOWER with GOOGL +.35, AMZN -18.96, AAPL -4.40, FB -2.45, NFLX -6.43, NVDA – 4.32, TSLA -.92, BABA -8.41 (4.31%), BIDU -3.06, IBM -.02, BOX -.34, CAT -3.60 (2.59%), BA -6.60, and XLK $78.32 -.61 (.77%).

 

 

 

FINANCIALS: were LOWER with GS -1.52, JPM -1.17, BAC -.37, MS -.71, C -.47, PNC -1.11, AIG +3.41 (see above earnings report), TRV +.08, AXP -.95, XLF $27.88 -.19, (.68%) and KBE $45.90 -.11 (.24%).

 

 

OIL, $62.25 + .32 The move lower in the last several days was a normal pull-back after the break-out. But today’s break to $60.04 took us right into the support I outlined in the comment on page 10 of the Weekly Strategies last night, and the move back and close not only up on the day, but over $2.00 off the low validates that support.  While we may back and fill here, today can turn out to be another interim bottom.  The pull-back of 10% (66.60 to 60.04) is bigger than any of the moves down since the $42.50 bottom late last year.  The stocks were mixed, but I like MRO, and I’ll be watching for any weakness to be a buyer.

 

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,283.80 +2.50. Last night gave us the opportunity to see the rally into resistance for a great place to re-short the gold.  Unfortunately, (again) by the time our markets were open it was $6.00 lower and we didn’t get the chance to buy any puts.  The late day rally gives us another chance to look at the resistance around $1,290 – 91.

 

 

BITCOIN: closed $5,740 +65. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   We have held the support just over $5,025 and if we broke above $5,480 we can test $5,900- 6,100.  Today’s move over 5,650 is making the move look a little tired at a place (5750) that may be supply.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $7.52 + .19.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 5/2/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 3RD

 

Fake Meat IPO  + 174% !!

 

 

Factory orders and Durables Goods Higher

 

 

 

Today’s early market was slightly higher but it only took until 10:30 for the averages to breach unchanged and head lower.  By noon the Dow was -247 and it spent until 2:30 to rally to -110 before closing -122.36 (.48%), NASDAQ -12.87 (.16%), S&P 500 -6.21 (.21%), the Russell +6.27 (.40%), and DJ Transports, which went from biggest loser yesterday to biggest winner today +126.07 (1.18%).  Market internals were split with NYSE volume 1.4:1 Down and A/D 13:15 while NASDAQ was 4:3 UP and 1:1 respectively.  New highs were lower but still 166 and 62.  DJIA was 11 Up and 19 lower.  CAT, the biggest loser -21 DPs raised their dividend 20% and made promises of better profits coming but the market didn’t care, DWDP -18, DIS -16, UTX -12, V -11, MSFT -11 and MMM -9 (as mentioned last night, MMM was down for the 5th day in 6, and has fallen $37 (16.8%) during that period.  Gainers were few with HD the only double-digit +15 DPs.

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: UAA beat top and bottom line and gave inline guidance and was rewarded early, opening $23.96 + 1.92, but fell back during the day to close $22.82 +.78 (3.54%).  Words with Friends make ZNGA also beat the numbers and opened $6.23 but also gave some back finishing $5.82 +.31 (5.63%).  DMRC missed by $ .02 but beat on revenues and the stock which started the year at $14.10 and closed yesterday $33.10 gapped up $6.90 at $40 and moved all the way to $50.80 before closing $47.92 +14.82 (44.77%).  The company just signed with WMT to help them to reduce waste and have better accuracy and efficiency of food products at checkout.

 

 

It wasn’t all good news with Eventbrite (EB) missing and gapping lower to $15.83 – 8.32 (34%) before managing to close $17.60 -6.55 (27.12%).  ABMD beat on earnings but missed on revenues and the stock, down already from $364 in February to break from $$348 to $272 in a 5-day slide in late March and feel from $280 to $228 before coming back to close $264 -12.30 (4.44%).  CREE beat but missed on revenues and the stock traded down to $57.10 – 7.38 before turning higher and closing $66.19 +1.41 (2.18%).  SQ, which reported last night continued its selloff to a low of $66.05 before closing $67.74 -5.88 (7.99%).

 

 

After the close we had numbers from:

GILD, a beat of 28% gain in earnings + .69 (1%),

SHAK a big beat $67.92 + 5.01 (7.96%),

WW (formerly WTW) beat $23.80 +3.49 (17%),

ANET beat but poor guidance $260 – 51.01 (16.4%), and

FLR had its CEO/Chairman resign after 34 yrs. and slashed guidance fell

            To $29.72 -9.43 (24.09%) in the process.

 

 

And the Homerun of the day, yesterday, ARCA Biopharma, (ABIO) +5.09 (98.64%) continued higher to touch $20.45 before closing $12.65 +2.40 (23.41%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were MIXED, with CELG +.+.19, BIIB +1.50, ABBV -.42, REGN -5.38, ISRG +5.06, MYL +.61, TEVA -.33, VRTX -3.06, BCH -.34, INCY +2.03 (2,57%), ICPT +2.35 (2.74%), and IBB $105.88 +.32 (.30%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with the exception of GWPH +7.81 (4.71%) and the ETF, MJ $34.86 -.62 (1.75%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were MIXED with LMT +1.15, RTN +.70, NOC +.62, GD -2.29, BWXT -2.18 (4.32%), TXT -1.93, UTX -1.93, TDY -.99, and IAT $210.00 -.10 (.05%).

 

 

RETAIL: was Bounced back with the brands following.  M +.13, JWN +.12, KSS +.38, DDS +1.13, JCP -.01, WMT +.19, TGT +.24, TJX +.51, RL +2.18, UAA (see above), LULU +.88, NKE -.81, TPR +.37, CPRI +.46 and XRT $45.40 +.32 (.71%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MIXED with GOOGL still unable to bounce and closing -6.81, AMZN -10.37, AAPL -1.32, FB -.23, NFLX +.80, NVDA +1.23, TSLA +10.89 (4.65%) on reports of a stock offering and Elon to buy 42,000 shares, BABA +1.31, BIDU +.83, IBM -.97, BOX +.12, CAT (see above) -2.87, BA -1.10, and XLK $78.10 -.41 (.52%).

 

 

FINANCIALS: were HIGHER with GS +.27, JPM +.26, BAC +.26, MS +24, C +.36, PNC +.73, AIG -.07, TRV -.38, AXP +.23, XLF $27.86 +.07 (.25%) and KBE $45.47 +.52 (1.16%).

 

 

OIL, $61.81 -1.79 The move lower in the last several days was a normal pull-back after the break-out. But today’s break puts that into question.  The low of the day $60.95 sets a temporary halt just above the $60.00 area of support.  While yesterday’s action pushed the 5-day Moving average crossed the 20-day, the question becomes, Is the MA or the support more important?  We’ll know soon enough if we get a quick reversal or a continuation lower.  All of my list was lower except OXY +.06 and the ETF XLE closed $63.81 -.98 (1.51%).  The Oil is currently trading - .12 @ $61.69 well above the low.

 

 

NAT. GAS $2.589 -.031 I am looking at the new lows last week and the later move slightly higher and up on the day as a place that may see a bounce back into the recent range of $2.65-2.70.  We traded this market in January for gains of over 300% using the UNG (ETF) currently around $22.00.  Today’s action was an “inside day” generally considered inconclusive. We bought the UNG 5/17 $22.50 calls @ $ .44 and they closed $ .32 -.21.

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,272 -12.20. We were stopped out of the 5/17/ $119 puts last week and while we made good money on the $122s I always hate a loss in a trade that I still think works.  Today’s move down, with the low $1,267.30 may be supportive, but it looks to me like a move to $1,250 – 1,260 is in order.

 

 BITCOIN: closed $5,385 + 50. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   We have held the support just over $5,025 and if we broke above $5,480 we can test $5,900- 6,100.  Today’s move over 5,650 is making the move look a little tired at a place (5750) that may be supply.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $6.85 + .10.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 5/1/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 2nd

 

 

APPLE Moves Higher!!

 

ADP Number +275,000

ISM and Construction Spending Both Missed  

 

DJIA Finishes on the Lows

 

 

Today’s early market was ruled by AAPL with its big beat last night.  The stock was +76 DPs early while the net change on DJIA was only +47.  As has been the pattern, we started up in the DJIA and made the high in the late morning and most of midday was spent around unchanged.  The 2:00 Fed decision caused a little blip, to a lower high but the news conference was a disaster for the DOW taking it pretty much straight down to close on the lows at 25430.44 -162 .77 (.64%), NAASDAQ -46.76, S&P 500 -22.10 (.75%), the Russell -14.83 (.93%) and the DJ Transports, the biggest loser -185.45 (1.71%).  This was especially disappointing in view of the fact that AAPL contributed +67 DPs and +42 NASDAQ points.  The market internals were very weak with NYSE volume 3.2:1 lower and A/D 9:5.  NASDAQ was 2:1 on both metrics although there were more new highs earlier in the day at NYSE 255 and NAZ 115.

 

This is exactly what was discussed last night as good earnings sent several stocks higher, only to have the market turn them substantially lower.  AAPL was over $215 and cl0sed $210 (still a solid day +9), but AMD was 29.15 and closed 26.81 -.82 (2.97%), Estee Lauder (EL) was $180.20 early and finished 170.30-1.51, CVS, one we took a 100% Up Rule sale early managed to hold 2/3s of it’s gain to close $57 +2.62 (4.8%).  The list goes on and it was a very disappointing day.

 

DJIA stocks were heavily negative with 24 down and only 6 higher.  AAPL was the only double-digit gainer +63 DPs and nothing else +1 to 5 DPs while the losers in double digits were HD -33, MCD and MMM -23 each, MSFT -19, V & NKE -14, CVX -15, and you get the picture.  As I also mentioned last night, MMM has not even been able to mount any reversal, making another new low today.

 

 

 

 

SECTORS:  Other names in the news: AMGN disappointed and was $171.25 but rallied a bit to close 176.14 -3.18 (1.77%), RCL heat and held on to finish 129.03 +8.09 (6.69%), SQ, a darling for the past year moving from $49.56 in December and hit 82.76 earlier this year beat on earnings and gave poor guidance fell to $67.50 in late trading currently 68.75 – 4.87 (6.7%).

 

ENPH, a solar generation, storage and management solutions reported Q1 revenues of $100.2 million up from $70million and ahead of $92.5 expected, and earnings of $ .08 from a $ .01 (loss).  The stock, up from $4.56 in December opened $12.30, traded $13.20 and finished $12.98 +2.94 (29.28%).

 

PCRX profited by a competitor’s problems when HERON Therapeutics (HERN) was denied an FDA approval for its post-surgery pain drug.  PCRX, which is up from $35 in the past 2 weeks closed $46.25 + 6.43 (16.15%) while HERN fell from

$2.94 last week to close today $2.48 -.17 (6.42%).

 

And the Homerun of the day was Arca Biopharma, (ABIO) published trial results for its “beta-one adrenergic receptor (ADRB1) Arg389Arg genotype.”  The lead author is Dr. Jonathan P. Piccini Director of Duke University Med center for Atrial Fibrillation and Duke Clinical Res Institute.  I know, I have no clue what all that meant, but the stock, a 1:18 reverse split April 4th, opened $5.21 +.06, and started up, being halted for volatility 5 times and traded as high as $12.88 and finished the day $10.25 +5.09 (98.64%).

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were MIXED, with CELG +.36, BIIB +.46, ABBV -.31, REGN -2.35, ISRG -14.13 (2.77%), MYL +.02, TEVA +.03, VRTX +3.62 (2.14%), BCH -.24, INCY +2.11 (2.75%), ICPT -.35, and IBB $105.35 -1.07 (1.01%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with the exception of ACRGF +1.85 *.38%) and a new name here CURLF (Curaleaf) 11.18 +1.27 (12.82%) and MJ $35.29 -.37 (1.04%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were LOWER across the board with ITA $209.24 -.28 (.18%).

 

RETAIL: was ALSO LOWER with neither any stores nor brands on the plus side.  The XRT was $45.08 -.60 (1.31%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were LOWER with GOOGL unable to bounce and closing -29.91, AMZN -11.52, AAPL (see above) +9.98 (4.97%), FB -.65, NFLX +9.97 (2.69%), NVDA -1.13, TSLA -4.94 (2.07%), BABA +3.61, BIDU -1.03, IBM +.29, BOX +.29, CAT -1.28, BA -1.69 and XLK $78.51 -.20 (.25%).

 

FINANCIALS: were LOWER with NONE on my list higher.  XLF $27.79 -.23 (.82%) and KBE $44.95 -.54 (1.19%).

 

OIL, $63.60 -.31 The move lower in the last several days was a normal pull-back after the break-out. We are still above the recent lows and while I still see supply over the market at $67.50 -$70, the trend is still solidly up, but a break and close below Thursday’s $62.28 may be a problem.  Today’s action pushed the 5-day Moving average crossed the 20-day, and if it doesn’t reverse before the Friday close it is a problem.  All the Oil names were lower with the XLE $64.79 -1.32 (2%).

 

NAT. GAS $2.62 + .045 I am looking at the new lows last week and the later move slightly higher and up on the day as a place that may see a bounce back into the recent range of $2.65-2.70.  We traded this market in January for gains of over 300% using the UNG (ETF) currently around $22.00.  We bought the UNG 5/17 $22.50 calls @ $ .44 and they closed $ .53 +.14.

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,281.50 -7.30. We were stopped out of the 5/17/ $119 puts last week and while we made good money on the $122s I always hate a loss in a trade that I still think works.  Today’s move lower after the Fed press conference brought it lower and tonight it is trading $1,278.40 – 5.80.  Another break of $1,274.50 is into important support.  If it doesn’t hold there the move lower should continue to $1,250 or lower.

 

BITCOIN: closed $5,340 + 50. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   We have held the support just over $5,025 and if we broke above $5,480 we can test $5,900- 6,100.  Today’s move over 5,650 is making the move look a little tired at a place (5750) that may be supply.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $6.75 + .14.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 4/30/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading May 1st

 

 

BUFFETT BACKS OXY

MCD and GE Beat

 

 New High Close for S&P

 

Chicage PMI 52.6 and Consumer Confidence 129.2

 

 

 

For tonight’s note I’m going to change the format because I think that my impressions of what is going on in the market will give you a bit more to think about than the breakdown of the individual sectors.

 

It appears to me as if the market is giving some divergent and somewhat disturbing signs and I will list the ones that are concerning to me.

 

Volume has continued to roll along at subdued levels, and as I have pointed out, “volume precedes price.”  As the market grows in value you need more volume, not less to sustain both the level and the activity.  This is a problem.  On top of the volume issue we also have the dramatic increase in both the size and number of IPOs coming to market.  You may question whether that really makes a difference in our $30 Trillion market, as I have in the past, but the number of multi-billion offerings does mean that we are creating more supply.  Since price movement is driven by supply and demand, the introduction of more supply may unbalance that balance.  You can ask how $10 Billion will effect a $30 Trillion market, you have to remember that the vast majority of the value is HELD, NOT TRADED.  Demand for these Unicorns (a term I hate) is generated by traders who have to “make room” by selling other stocks to generate the cash to buy them.  That is not investing.

 

Another issue is the technical position of the market, or more specifically some of the biggest, most widely owned names.  MMM, a major US company missed on all metrics last week.  The stock moved lower by 13% on the news.  Unfortunately, the move turns out to now be overdone, judging by the fact that 4 days later the stock not only hasn’t recovered at all, but made a new recent low again today.

 

Some other favorites have reported and made new highs only to attract seller who drove the stocks lower.  The question is, “once everyone loves a stock and all of the analysts have issued buys with ever increasing price targets, who’s left to buy it?”  MCD reported today and before the open the stock traded $204.60 up $7.48 (3.8%), sucking buyers in and then opening $199 and then moving to $195.50 before closing up just $ .45 (.23%).

 

Pinterest (PINS) one of the last IPOs from 8 trading days ago, issued at $19, opened $24.40 and then traded higher every day to hit $35.29 this morning before coming back to earth, just a little to close $30.98 -3.28 (9.57%).  It’s not a bad company or stock, but this type of exuberance is generally seen at highs.    Another example was JMIA, a Pan-African e-commerce site came at $14.50 and in just 4 days hit $49.77 before hitting $31.70 the next day.  It close $42.97 today.

 

These are symptoms of a market that dramatically punishes any miss on earnings or growth (revenues) and calls a beat of numbers that have been lowered, sometimes 2 or 3 times, a solid gain.

 

Well, that’s enough.  I’m not now, nor have I ever been a long-term bear, but my message is one of concern for the signs I see after being through 45 years of watching both Bull and Bear markets.  

 

Remember, They don’t ring a bell at the top or the bottom !!!

 

Names in the news: as mentioned above MCD had earnings that beat, and the same-store comps at 4.5% vs. 3% expected.  GE was a surprise beat with better than expected (lower than expected declines) and the strength in the stock took it some place that it hasn’t been in over 2 years, a close ABOVE the 200-day moving average.

 

AAPL beat with a successful move to, and gain in “services.” Those services revenues grew 16%.  Add to that a gain in IPad growth (22%) the best since 20% in 2013.  The stock is up from a low of $142 to close the day $200.67 -3.94, 40%, is now trading $211.50 +10.83 (5.4%).

Some others:

 

PFE beat and closed $40.61 +1.02 (2.58%)

GLW missed and closed near the high but at $31.85 -1.88 (5.57%)

AMD beat $29.50 +1.41 (5%)

CGNX missed last night and closed at its high but $45 -1.57 (3.37%).

 

Other News: In the biggest surprise of the day, Warren Buffett has come to the rescue of OXY to help them buy APC.  It’s not actually his magnanimous nature with his deal being $10 Billion loan in the form of an 8% 10 year preferred plus 80,000,000 warrants to buy OXY @ $62.50 /share.  That compares to the current OXY 10-yr debt trading currently at 3.5%.  Not cheap money.  Makes the $1 Billion breakup fee look like the biggest bargain in this deal.

 

On the M&A side, Healthcare Equity is buying WAGE (Wageworks) for $50.50 in cash.  The stock with a low on Xmas eve of $25.15, had closed yesterday $43.06 opened today $49.35 and finished the day $48.79 +5.73 (13.32%).

 

The pattern of the market remained the same with an open up for the DJIA and S&P 500 followed by a selloff to make the lows around 11:15 down 135 before a move back to unchanged and 2 hours of sideways until the last minute move to close +38.52 (.15%) near the highs.  NASDAQ was the weak sister on the back of GOOGL -97.24 (7.5%) to close -66.48 (.81%), and S&P 500 +2.80 (.10%), the Russell – 7.15%) and the DJ Transports +39.56 (.37%).  Market internals were divergent with NYSE volume 6:5 and A/D 15:13 UP, while NASDAQ was 3:4 and 1.6:1 DOWN respectively.  The new highs on NYSE expanded further to 233 while they fell slightly to 92 on NAZ.  DJIA was split 20 up and 10 down with the biggest losers, UNG -31, DIS -16 and AAPL -27 DPs.  On the upside were CVX +16, TRV +16, PG +12, MRK +13, and HD +10 DPs.

 

Futures:

OIL +.41

NAT GAS -.018

GOLD +4.20

COPPER +.007

BITCOIN -260

BONDS + 0 -16

 

THAT’S IT FOR TONIGHT, I’LL GO BACK TO THE STANDARD FORMAT TOMORROW.

 

 

TOMORROW IS ANOTHER DAY.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 4/29/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading April 30th

 

 

GOOGLE’s BIG MISS

 

 New High Closes for S&P & NASDAQ

 

Decent Income and Spending Numbers

 

 

 

Today’s market was a quiet affair with a short range of just 80 DPs.  The early morning numbers for personal spending (+ .01% vs .4 expected) while PCE and core PCE were +.01 giving credence to higher spending and no real inflation.  At the end of the day we finished with DJIA +11.06 (.04%), NASDAQ +15.45 (.19%), S&P 500 +3.15 (.11%). The Russell +6.54 (.41%) and DJ Transports the only loser -74.31 (.68%).  Market internals were pretty much in line with both DJIA and NASDAQ metrics 1.5:1 for both volume and A/D.  New highs were 135 on NY and 115 on NAZ.  DJIA was split 15 / 15 with only 3 stocks contributing double digit moves with BA -12 and JPM +11 and GS +27 DPs.

 

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news: There was carryover selling today in MMM finishing 190.21 -1.46 (.76%), and although it didn’t make a new low from the Thursday / Friday collapse, it was unable to make any headway higher.  DIS may be running out of gas for a while with the news of the first $1+ billion opening ever for the new Avengers movie.  Industry sources broke out the numbers and 90% of ALL movie tickets sold from Thursday – Sunday went to Avengers.  How much better than that can you actually get?  DIS opened $142.21, traded $142.37 and then headed down to $137.61 and finished $139.30 -.62 on the day.  MOMO the Chinese social media platform received word that the government has ordered the TANTAN mobile app removed from app stores.  The reaction was swift as MOMO opened $34 – 2.87 and finished $34.36 -2.51 (6.81%).

 

The earnings parade continued with GOOGL the biggest name this afternoon with a beat on earnings but a rare miss on revenues.  Growth numbers were a disappointment across the board.  The stock had closed $1,296.20 + 18.78 (1.47%) at a new all-time high but the stock hit the skid quickly and the last is $1,201.02 – 95.18 (7.34%).  WDC also missed, which after INTC and the other chip related issued led the way last week and after closing $50.47 -.45 is now $47.01 3.46 lower.  CGNX, maker of imaging products using AI to recognize those images and barcodes missed and gave very poor guidance for Q2 and after closing $53.70 -1.23, it fell to $46.15 – 7.55 (14%).  Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) miss also, citing increased labor costs and fell from its close $61.09, traded down to $54.50 before closing 56.20 – 4.89 (8%).

 

It wasn’t all bad news as Impinj, (PI) a maker of RFID identification products, which is down from its highs near $61 in 7/17 closed the day $21.70 + .28, reported a smaller than expected loss on better than expected revenues and gave great guidance and was rewarded with a pop to $27.90 and finished $26.80 + 5.10 (23%).  YUM China (YUMC) the spinoff from YUM Brands also reported a beat top and bottom lines, and moved from $44.75 to trade 46.80 and finished $46.06 +1.31.

 

Another big winner, although not from earnings was G1 Therapeutics (GTHX).  The company disclosed this afternoon that it expects to file an NDA with the FDA on its Trilaciclib drug for treatment designed to protect bone marrow from the effects of Chemotherapy.  The stock, down from $70 last fall had closed the day $18.56 and after the news soared to $23.71 and finished the day $22.57 +4.01 (21.6%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were MIXED, with CELG +.38, BIIB -1.15, ABBV +.55, REGN +.49, ISRG -8.77, MYL +.21, TEVA +.15, VRTX -.08, BCH -.18, INCY -.53, ICPT -1.31 and IBB $107.18 -.22 (.20%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were MIXED with TLRY -.65, CGC +1.84, CRON -.19, GWPH +4.55 (2.72%), ACB +.02, PYX +.42, APHA -.11, NBEV -.05, ACRGF +.59, and MJ $35.90 +.59 (1.67%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were MIXED with LMT -.33, RTN -2.00, NOC +2.16, GD +1.14, BWXT +.22, TXT -.11, UTX +1.32, TDY +2.36, and ITA $209.24 +.31 (.15%).

 

RETAIL: was MIXED with M - .14, JWN -.57, KSS +.09, DDS -.17, JCP -.01, WMT +.01, TGT +.78, TJX -.28, RL +.90, LULU +.41, UAA -.04, NKE -.21, TPR +.68, CPRI +.20, and XRT $45.91 +.11 (.24%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were LOWER with GOOGL -76.42 (5.98%), AMZN -27.52 (1.41%), AAPL -1.18, FB +2.13, NFLX -5.35, NVDA -.44, TSLA +5.33, BABA -.89, BIDU -.96, IBM -.39, CAT -.01, BA -2.19, and XLK $78.58 +.02 (.03%).

 

FINANCIALS: were HIGHER with GS +3.67, JPM +1.53, BAC +.30, MS +.86, C +1.49, PNC +.92, AIG +.94, TRV +1.22, AXP -1.09, and XLF $27.98 +.28 (1.01%).

 

OIL, $63.50 + .28 The move lower in the last several days was a normal pull-back after the break-out. We are still above the recent lows and while I still see supply over the market at $67.50 -$70, the trend is still solidly up, but a break and close below Thursday’s $62.28 may be a problem.

 

NAT. GAS $2.593 + .013 I am looking at the new lows last week and the later move slightly higher and up on the day as a place that may see a bounce back into the recent range of $2.65-2.70.  We traded this market in January for gains of over 300% using the UNG (ETF) currently around $22.00.  We bought the UNG 5/17 $22.50 calls @ $ .44 today and they closed $ .45.

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,281.50 -7.30. We were stopped out of the 5/17/ $119 puts last week and while we made good money on the $122s I always hate a loss in a trade that I still think works.  Today’s move lower may turn out to be a precursor to a break, the upside still looks like a problem.

 

BITCOIN: closed $5,140 +60. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   We have held the support just over $5,025 and if we broke above $5,480 we can test $5,900- 6,100.  Today’s move over 5,650 is making the move look a little tired at a place (5750) that may be supply.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $6.21 -.07.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

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After the close 4/25/2019

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading April 26th

 

 

MMM’S BIG MISS

 

 

Today’s market was a split affair from the premarket trading through the open based on the MMM miss which shaved 120 (Dow Points (DP)) off the futures while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 were higher.  At the open it was worse and by 9:45 it had traded 194.66 or 166 DPs lower.  If you eliminate the action attributable to MMM, the rest of the day wasn’t that different than most of the past 2 weeks, with a low, followed by towards the high of the day and sideways action.  By 10:45 we had made the low -288, the rally to -100 or so, and the sideways action from 12:30 until the close and finished midrange -134.97 (.51%), NASDAQ +16.67 (.21%), S&P 500 -1.08 (.04%), the Russell, yesterday’s big winner -12.52 (.79%), and DJ Transports the biggest loser -253.37 (2.28%) on the back of UPS and across the board declines in the group.  Market internals were weak with NYSE volume 2:1 and A/D 9:5 lower.  NASDAQ was slightly better at 3:2 down in both volume and A/D.  New highs were lower in both with 106 and 69 respectively.  DJIA were split with 16 down and 14 up.  Only 2 names were lower by double digits with AAPL -13 DPs and CAT 11, but the big loser was MMM shaving 195 DPs.  On the upside, and balancing the index a bit were BA +52, MSFT +28, DIS +15, AXP +12, and MRK +11 DPs.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news: The obvious issue today was the miss at MMM with both top and bottom lines major disappointments.  Add to that the forward guidance lowered from $10.52 to a range of $9.25-9.50 for the year caused some severe punishment, gapping down at the open $197.56 -21.61 (9.85%) and managed no real recovery finishing $190.79 -28.29 (12.91%).  I note that as bad as this was, and I’ve never seen a single stock pare $194 DPs off the average, this move was not even a new low for the year, and while breaking the 200 day moving average, on the long term look it is resting on the 200-week MA.    

 

After the close last night, we got numbers from MSFT, a beat resulting in an extended hours gain of $3.67 (2.93%) to new all-time highs, and that continued today to $131.37 +6.36 and managed a close of $129.15 +4.14 (3.31%).  Also after the close CMG beat both top and bottom lines and reported gains in online ordering and restaurant margins was initially lower to $690 -19.75 but turned around and traded $739.99 but when the dust settled today it was lower at %678.01 -31.74 (4.47%).  It should also be noted that the stock has risen from $383 on Xmas eve to $721 for a gain of 88%.    

 

UPS missed top and bottom and also gapped down to open $109.51 -4.92 and continued to $104.20 before a minor rally to close $105.13 -9.30 (8.13%).  Also reporting a surprise loss and lower revenues was WWE.  Live events revenue was lower while digital views were better with an increase in paid subscribers were up a meager 2%.  While the stock made a nominal new all-time high yesterday, but the news sent it down on the open to $90 -8.50, it continued to fall to $83.75 and closed $85.38 -13.12 (13.32%).

 

After the close we had numbers from MAT and a surprise in the form f a smaller loss than expected and inline revenues.  While there were some weak spots, the action figure and building sets/ games of 18%.  The company made comments on better margins, operating income major “run-rate savings.  The stock which has been in steady decline from $48, 5 years ago, and touching $9.09 in December rallied to $17.37 and fell back to $12 traded to $14.50 and is now $13.35 +1.07 (8.7%) since the close.

 

INTC missed on both earnings and revenues and guided Q2 and second half numbers lower than expected.  The stock closed $57.61 after a steady climb this year from $43.51 to new all-time highs of $59.59 last week.  The last in extended hours is $53.41– 5.31 (8.82%).  Between INTC and XLNX last night, $115.86 -23.86 (17.08%) we are getting a pretty gloomy picture of the industry.

 

Ford beat on increased sales in autos and most of their worldwide markets.  The earnings of $ .44 were .27 better than expectations and while revenues were down 3.9% to $40.34 billion, expectations were for only $37.37 billion.

 

Amazon reported beats of both earnings and revenues but the conference call hadn’t begun.  The general opinion is that they warned us that they were going to increase spending and may warn again.  There are some areas of weakness such as Ad revenues and some slower growth here at home.  As it turned out, the conference call spelled out better projections on free shipping based on continuing improvements in logistics and the stock moved off the lows at $1,886 to trading now at $1,919 +16.18 (.85%).

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were HIGHER, again for the second day with CELG +.82, BIIB +5.10, ABBV +.46, REGN +9.53, ISRG +9.39, MYL -.29, TEVA +.03, VRTX +2.03, BCH -.24, INCY +.42, ICPT -2.32, and IBB $106.78 +1.14 (1.08%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -.80, CGC -.29, CRON -.07, GWPH +1.42, ACB -.06, PYX -1.05, APHA -.15, NBEV +.25 (4.54%), ACRGF -.23 and MJ 34.60 -.34 (.97%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were LOWER across the board with LMT -1.62, RTN -8.77 (4.37%), NOC unchanged, GD -3.44, BWXT -.90, TXT -.90, UTX +.14, TDY -1.99 and ITA $206.18 -2.08 (.97%).

 

 

RETAIL: was LOWER with all retailers and brands down on the day.  M -.94 (3.75%), JWN -.95 (2.26%), KSS -1.98 (2.7%), DDS -1.37 (1.97%), JCP -.04 (3.03%), WMT -.97, TGT -1.53, TJX -.34, RL -2.30, UAA -.47 (2.06%), LULU -.98, NKE -1.09, TPR -.73 (2.32%), CPRI -1.34 (2.91%), and XRT $45.47 -.42 (.92%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MIXED with GOOGL +8.46, AMZN +30.34 (SEE BELOW), AAPL -2.17, FB +10.35 (5.67%), NFLX -6.83, NVDA -8.97 (4.69%), TSLA -11.56 (4.47%), BABA +1.53, BIDU -1.80, IBM -1.45, BOX -.42, CAT -1.63, BA +6.29, and XLK $78.12 -.76 (.96%).

 

 

FINANCIALS: were MIXED with GS +.44, JPM -.25, BAC +.02, MS -.19, C -.18, PNC +.07, AIG -.55, TRV +.01, AXP +1.54, XLF $27.45 +.05 (.18%) and KBE 44.59 -.14 (.31%).

 

 

OIL, $65.21 -.68 Today was a normal pull-back after the break-out. We are still above that breakout and the lows of the day are still above the highest high of $64.68, and also above the rising 13 day moving average which come into play at $64.52.  While I still see supply over the market at $67.50 -$70, the trend is still solidly up.

 

NAT. GAS $2.548 +.048 I am looking at the new lows this morning and the later move slightly higher and up on the day as a place that may see a bounce back into the recent range of $2.65-2.70.  We traded this market in January for gains of over 300% using the UNG (ETF) currently around $22.00.

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,279.70 +.30. I initiated a short position here last Friday near the end of the day using the GLD 5/122 puts expecting a move lower.  We did buy the GLD 5/122 puts @ $1.20 last Friday and I sold half @ $2.20 last week for a nice gain.  We are now locked into a 4-day trading range at prior support between $1,273 on the bottom and $1,282.10 on the top.   We paid $ .59 and $.60 for the 5/119 puts and unfortunately got stopped out today on the 50% Down Rule.

 

 

Copper broke to the upside on the China 6.4% growth news late last week.  It finally moved through the $2.96.20 and ran to a high of $2.9955 before settling back to close $2.9675 + .0370.  Since then we have worked steadily lower while there is decent support from here down to $2.85 I see no reason to commit to a trade here.  Today’s close of $2.8675 - .0485 keeps me on the sidelines.

 

BITCOIN: closed $5,490 +55. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   We have held the support just over $5,025 and if we broke above $5,480 we can test $5,900- 6,100.  Today’s move over 5,650 is making the move look a little tired at a place (5750) that may be supply.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $6.98 +.18.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 4/24/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading April 25th

 

 

Big Earnings Surprises

But are they really beats?

 

“Drilling for Oil on Wall Street”

 

Russell the big Winner

 

 

 

Today’s market fell back into the pattern of the last two weeks with the open leading to a selloff to the low -65, backing and filling to the high +36 and then spent 2 hours working lower to a new low of -80 and then the next 2 hours moving sideways to up to near unchanged with a final fade to close -58.53 (.22%), NASDAQ -18.80 (.23%), S&P 500 -6.41 (.22%), the Russell + 28.09 (1.80%), and DJ Transports also higher by 95.59 (.87%).  Market internals were mixed with NYSE volume 3:2 down and A/D 1:1 and NASDAQ volume was 10:9 up with 8:7 down on A/D.  The new highs continued to grow with 161 on NYSE and 124 NAZ.  DJIA was 17 down and 13 up with the biggest losers CAT (31), CVX (26), GS (25) and XOM (11), with the only 2 double digit gainers being DIS (12) and MCD (17) DPs.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news: In the Weekly Strategies of 4/15 the headline on page 1 was about the bid by CVX for APC, and today that headline was compounded by OXY making a higher bid by 20% in order to secure APC’s proven reserves and become a $100+ billion energy giant.  The OXY argument is that between the two companies there would be a $3.5billion improvement in free cash-flow in year one.  This story is far from over, and I’d expect a higher bid from CVX, possibly not topping the OXY bid, but higher than the $33 billion offer already made.  CVX is clearly a stronger company and the cash and stock deal with CVX may well be enough for the APC shareholders.

 

Earnings before the open were not a one-way street today with CAT beating, but also disclosing that they had lost market share in the China market, and finishing the day as the DJIA biggest loser at $137.68 -4.35 (3.06%).

 

T was also lower on a surprise gain in Q1, but revenues were weaker.  AT&T’s Direct-TV business is seeing subscribers flee in mass while mobile is just so-so.  The stock gapped down at the open to $31.13 and continued lower all day finishing $30.79 -1.31 (4.08%).

 

A nice gainer this morning was Silicon Laboratories (SLAB) which reported a bottom line beat and in=line revenues, and guided higher for Q2 on both metrics.  The stock which had an Xmas eve low of $73.13 closed last night $93.60 but gapped up to $101.60 and continued higher finally closing pennies off the high at $110.04 +16.44 (17.56%), its best day since July 2008.

 

Last night IRBT missed on revenues and the stock was trading $111.04 -19.53, and today it only got worse finishing today $100.42 -30.15 (23.09%).  The stock, which is up from the Xmas eve low of $73.01 and had risen to close $130.57 up 78% yesterday.

 

Before getting into the earnings reports for after the close, I’d like to mention that many of these “BEATS” are based on reduced expectations.  After the market gains from 2018 Q1’s declines to the highs in September we saw companies lowering projection almost daily.  I have always been on record as not being a fan of the beat of drastically reduced expectations as carrying as much weight as gains based on organic revenue growth.  It certainly does not warrant the multiple expansion we are seeing.

 

After the close we got numbers from MSFT, a beat resulting in an extended hours gain of $3.67 (2.93%) to new all-time highs.  FB revenues beat and earnings were reduced by a $3 billion legal expense accrued in Q1.  The stock, which was well off the highs of last July at $218.62 closed $182.58 +4.30 (2.41%) but is now is currently $193.85 +11.22 (6.16%) for an overall gain for the day of almost $16.00.

 

CMG beat both top and bottom lines and reported gains in online ordering and restaurant margins was initially lower to $690 -19.75 but turned around and traded $739.99 and is now $714 +5.25.  PayPal (PYPL) beat top and bottom also but gave weak guidance and the stock which closed $107.22 up from $30 in 2015, and $76 earlier this year initially traded as low as $103.85 is now $105.48 -1.78 (1.66%).

 

TSLA was missed both top and bottom line by a mile.  Earnings were ($2.90) vs. ($ .69) and the revenues also missed.  The company does have $2.2 billion in cash that it says is sufficient for the year.  The stock closed $258.66 -5.24 (1.99%) and then traded down to $250.52 before rallying back to $258.76.

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were LOWER, after the group bounced a little yesterday after days of being pounded.  CELG -.84, BIIB -5.56 (2.42%), ABBV +.34, REGN -3.68, ISRG +7.72, MYL -.30, TEVA +.09, VRTX -2.79, BCH -.46, INCY -1.89, ICPT +.70 and IBB $105.64 -1.16 (1.09%).

 

CANNABIS: stocks were HIGHER with TLRY +1.14, CGC +.75, CRON +.31, GWPH -3.38 (2.05%), ACB +.03, PYX +2.20(11.07%), APHA +.03, NBEV +.33, ACRGF +.89 (4.2%), and MJ $34.94 +.09 (.26%).

 

DEFENSE: were LOWER across the board with the ETF, ITA $206.22 -2.81 (1.34%).

 

RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.40, JWN +.22, KSS -2.13, DDS +.85, JCP +.04 (3.08%), WMT +.25, TGT +.72, TJX +.23, RL -.04, UAA +.55 (2.46%), LULU +1.17, NKE +.82, TPR +.74, CPRI +.03 and XRT $45.89 +.76 (1.68%).

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MIXED with GOOGL +.51, AMZN -4.44, AAPL +.42, FB +12.57 (6.79% SEE ABOVE), NFLX -6.39, NVDA +.03, TSLA -4.74 (SEE ABOVE), BABA -1.29, BIDU -3.32, IBM -.54, BOX +.39, CAT -4.41 (SEE ABOVE), BA +1.57 and XLK $79.25 +.40 (.51%).

 

 

FINANCIALS: were LOWER with GS -3.57 (1.75%), JPM -.31, BAC -.05, MS +.03, C -.37, PNC -.03, AIG -.24, TRV +1.17, AXP -.83, XLF $27.33 -.10 (.36%) and KBE $44.73, -.03 (.07%).

 

 

OIL, $65.89 -.41 Today was a normal pull-back after the break-out. Last night I said that there is some supply between here and $67.50 and up to $70.00.  We will have to see how we consolidate for the next several days/weeks.  The big news of the day was all about the higher bid for APC +7.51 (11.74%-SEE ABOVE) as the only name higher.  The XLE finished $67.30 -1.20 (1.75%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,279.40 +6.20. I initiated a short position here last Friday near the end of the day using the GLD 5/122 puts expecting a move lower.  We did buy the GLD 5/122 puts @ $1.20 last Friday and I sold half @ $2.20 last week for a nice gain.  We are now locked into a 4-day trading range at prior support between $1,273 on the bottom and $1,282.10 on the top.  I said that if we break the lows I will add some GLD 5/119 puts, and if we break the top I will sell the puts and buy some calls.  I believe the upside is limited and the downside could easily reach $1,250.  We paid $ .59 and $.60 for the 5/119 puts just before the close.  Today’s move higher caused me to sell the second half of the 5/122 puts, but I kept the 119s.

 

 

Copper broke to the upside on the China 6.4% growth news late last week.  It finally moved through the $2.96.20 and ran to a high of $2.9955 before settling back to close $2.9675 + .0370.  Since then we have worked steadily lower while there is decent support from here down to $2.85 I see no reason to commit to a trade here.  Today’s low of $2.8865 is another test of the support, but it still doesn’t give me a reason to trade it.

 

BITCOIN: closed $5,435 -155. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   We have held the support just over $5,025 and if we broke above $5,480 we can test $5,900- 6,100.  Today’s move over 5,650 is making the move look a little tired at a place (5750) that may be supply.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $6.80 -.59.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 4/23/2019

 

 

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading April 24th

 

 

Big Earnings Surprises

New High for S&P 500 & NASDAQ

 

 

 

Today’s market up only slightly at the open but by 10:15 we were +80, followed by a pullback to +20 before a 90-minute rally to the high of the day +175 around 12:15.  After that we had an orderly move lower (flagging out) and back to +110 or so followed by a last 15 minutes up to finish +145.34 (.55%), NASDAQ +105.55 (1.32%), S&P 500 +25.71 (.88%), the Russell +25.05 (1.61%) and DJ Transports the only loser -4.36 (.04%).  Market internals were strong but not excessive with NYSE volume 2.6:1 and A/D 3:1 while NASDAQ was 3:1 and 2.8:1 respectively.  Overall volume continues weak.  I heard the statistic that there were only 10 0r 11 new highs in the S&P 500 today, but NYSE had 139 and NASDAQ had 99.  DJIA had only 8 lower with 22 higher.  The biggest loser was PG -20, VZ -8, BA -8, and WBA -6 Dow Points.  The biggest gainers were UNH +24, UTX +21, AAPL +20, MSFT and AXP +11 DPs.  Volume continues to be sub-par, and I find it somewhat disturbing since the old adage is “Volume precedes price.”  If that holds true, the continuing rally is at risk.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news: there was plenty of good news on the earnings front with several surprises.  TWTR beat and by early afternoon the headline was “TWTR having its best day in 3 years” gapping open to $36.93 +2.54, but that was only the beginning.  By noon the stock had rallied to $39.82 +5.43 (15%).  They changed their metrics slightly and the new “daily active users” showed great growth.  The final was $39.77 +5.38 (15.64%).

 

In defense and aerospace, UTX and LMT really lit up the tape after great numbers with UTX (being broken into 3 separate companies before year-end) was up $2.75 to $139.65 and continued to $142.36 before closing $140.02 +3.11 (2.27%).  LMT beat and was rewarded with a gap open to $326.93 +11.67 before moving quickly to $337.32 +22 before closing the day $333.10 +17.84 (5.66%).

 

KO and PG both beat and had good “Organic Growth” but they went in opposite directions with PG opening $104.01 -2.00 and trading lower all day and finishing $103.16 -2.85 (2.69%).  KO on the other hand was higher by $ .70 rallied up to $48.72 before coming in a bit and closing $48.21 +.81 (1.71%).  I mention them together since what they have in common is that they both had the aforementioned organic growth but they also were able to raise prices without any buyer rebellion.  KO has several new products (flavors) while PG has several new international lines being widely well received.

 

HAS was also a surprise beat and the holders were rewarded with a gap of $12.19 at the open and a move to 102.87, a recovery high, but not quite enough to match the high of $116.20 from July 2017.  It clearly needs some consolidation here and a move over the more recent high of $109.60 from last fall, but put in a good showing to close $100.65 +12.54 (14.32%).

 

After the close we had TXN recording a beat and after finishing the day $116.38 +1.43 it moved higher to $122.68 and was $119.75 +3.37 (2.91%).  Unfortunately, the conference call seems to leave something to be desired since the stock has reversed and is now trading $114 -5.75 well off the highs and now lower than the 4:00 close.

 

SNAP also beat and was $11.99 +.46 (3.99%) and traded as high as 13.70 and was $12.57 +.58 higher.  However, as the conference call progressed the stock gave up the gains and is now unchanged from the regular close (11.99) after being $2.70 higher.

 

IRobot (IRBT) beat on the bottom line but missed on revenues, and the stock, which is up from the Xmas eve low of $73.01 and has risen to close today $130.57 +1.84 (1.43%), a move of 78%, is now trading $111.04 -19.53 (15.2%).

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were HIGHER, after the group has been pounded recently with CELG +.57, BIIB +1.59, ABBV +.43, REGN +10.11, ISRG +9.36 (after a 5-day fall from $589 to $486), MYL -.12, TEVA +.27, VRTX +6.75, BCH -.17, INCY +1.19, ICPT +3.52 and IBB $106.80 +2.21 (2.11%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -1.42, CGC -1.05, CRON -.59, GWPH +3.58, ACB -.16, PYX -1.15, APHA -.06, NBEV -.07, ACRGF -.88 and MJ $34.68 -.23 (.66%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were HIGHER (see above) with LMT +17.74 (5.63%), RTN +5.70 (3.12), NOC +10.11 (3.57%), BWXT +1.00, TXT +.36, UTX +3.09 (2.26%), TDY +2.56 (1.03%), and ITA $209.03 +3.99 (1.95%).

 

 

RETAIL: was MIXED with a nice bounce off yesterday’s pounding with M +.33, JWN -.25, KSS +8.17 (12.11) on the news that they have now completed a deal with Amazon for drop-offs for returns at all their stores.  There had been a trial at 100 stores, now to be extended to all 1000, DDS +2.12 (3.18%), WMT +.87, TGT +.05, TJX +.49, RL +1.32, UAA +.18, LULU +3.76 (2.17%), NKE +.13, TPR +.14, CPRI -.34 and XRT $45.13 +.73 (1.64%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were HIGHER with GOOGL +16.83, AMZN +37.69 (2%), AAPL +2.95, FB +2.63, NFLX +4.04, NVDA +1.41, TSLA +1.28, BABA +1.94, BIDU +4.33 (2.56%), IBM +.53, CAT -.17, BA -1.45 (with earnings tomorrow) and

XLK $79.01 +1.01 (1.29%).

 

 

FINANCIALS: were HIGHER with GS -.56, JPM +.26, BAC +.03, MS +.18, C +.11, PNC +.31, AIG -.14, TRV +1.40, AXP +2.02, XLF $27.45 +.19 (.70%), and KBE $44.76 +.91 (2.08%).

 

 

OIL, $66.30 +.75 Today was a continuation of the breakout over the consolidation discussed here last week and again in the Weekly Strategies Sunday night.  The high of the day was $66.60 and there is some supply between here and $67.50 and up to $70.00.  We will have to see how we consolidate for the next several days/weeks.  Yesterday started with the announcements that the U.S. will not renew any of the waivers for purchases from Iran.  The stocks were mixed today but there were no big gains or losses.  XLE finished $68.49 -.12 (.17%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,273.20 -4.40. I initiated a short position here last Friday near the end of the day using the GLD 5/122 puts expecting a move lower.  We did buy the GLD 5/122 puts @ $1.20 last Friday and I sold half @ $2.20 last week for a nice gain.  We are now locked into a 4-day trading range at prior support between $1,273 on the bottom and $1,282.10 on the top.  I said that if we break the lows I will add some GLD 5/119 puts, and if we break the top I will sell the puts and buy some calls.  I believe the upside is limited and the downside could easily reach $1,250.  We paid $ .50 and $.60 for the 5/119 puts just before the close.  If we can continue lower for a day or two I think we will have a nice trade.  We still own the 5/122 puts at $1.20, and they closed $2.26 + .28.

 

 

Copper broke to the upside on the China 6.4% growth news late last week.  It finally moved through the $2.96.20 and ran to a high of $2.9955 before settling back to close $2.9675 + .0370.  Since then we have worked steadily lower while there is decent support from here down to $2.85 I see no reason to commit to a trade here.  Today’s low of $2.88775 is a test of the support, but it still doesn’t give me a reason to trade it.

 

BITCOIN: closed $5,590 + 195. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   We have held the support just over $5,025 and if we broke above $5,480 we can test $5,900- 6,100.  Today’s move over 5,650 is making the move look a little tired at a place (5750) that may be supply.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $7.40 +.33.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 4/22/2019

 

 

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading April 23rd

 

 

Is Volatility Gone Again?

 

 

 

Today’s market wasn’t exactly a carbon-copy (for those who remember carbon paper), but it wasn’t far from it.  We opened lower and again made the low of the day, -102 by 9:45, rallied to the high of the day -10 and spent a few hours moving lower and rallied into the close -48.49 (.18%), NASDAQ +17.21 (.22%), S&P 500 + 2.94 (.10%), the Russell -5.70 (.36%) and the DJ Transports -11.16 (.10%).  Market internals were mixed with NYSE volume 1.2:1 and A/D 1.5:1 down and NASDAQ split with volume 9:8 UP and A/D 1.4:1 down.  The DJIA was 11 up, 19 lower with the big losers, BA (33), NKE (13), and TRV (15), and the only double digit gainers UNH (37) and XOM (12) DPs.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  In healthcare, ISRG, maker of the DaVinci system for automated surgery beat bottom line but missed on revenues and the stock, which traded $586 last week but fell to $528.06 on the earnings had a quiet day Friday, continued lower again today to close $491.06 -37 (7.01%).  Today’s loss was the greatest in over 5 years.

 

In other earnings news WHR beat and after closing $139.36 +.30 is trading $150.75 +11.37 (8.1%).  CMRE beat and closed $5.63 and in afterhours finished $6.30 +.67 (11.9%).  KMB reported prior to the open and gapped up, traded $132.25 and finished $130.25 +6.70 (5.42%).

 

There were several upgrades and downgrades with MX price target raised at Needham and finishing $9.28 +.92 (11%).  DDS was downgraded at Wedbush based on excessive inventory and expected markdowns and it gapped lower and finished $66.67 -7.22 (9.77%).  Zynerba Pharma (ZYNE) was initiated at Canaccord with a price target of $18 and closed $9.50 +1.41 (17.43%).

 

In acquisition news KEYW is being bought by Jacobs Engineering (JEC) and finished $11.17 +3.31 (42.11%).

 

And we have 2 “Homerun’s of the day” in MBRX, a tiny Moleculin Biotech, announcing that on Wednesday 4/24 it will discuss “significant discovery for Lung Cancer and FDA activity” and finished $2.98 +1.87 (168.47%), and Regional Health Properties (RHE) another recent reverse split of 1:12 earlier this year, who had received notice of non-compliance from NYSE/AMEX for a delayed filing of its 10K, announced that it expected to file within 90 days.  It also reported that its purchase and sale agreement for 4 nursing facilities for $28.5 million in cash.  After trading as high as $3.94, it finished the day $2.42 +1.33 (122%).

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were MIXED TO HIGHER, after the group has been pounded recently with CELG -.34, BIIB +2.96, ABBV +.55, REGN +.69, ISRG (see above)-36.56, MYL -.13, TEVA +.42, VRTX +.36, BCH +.04, INCY -.40, ICPT -.36, and IBB $104.59 +.05 (.05%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were HIGHER with TLRY +2.84, CGC +3.69, CRON +1.18, GWPH +6.08, ACB +.25, PYX +4.02 (23.17%), APHA +.27, NBEV +.02, ACRGF -.34 and MJ $34.91 +1.03 (3.04%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were MIXED with LMT +2.74, RTN +.01, NOC +1.84, GD +.18, BWTX -.19, TXT-1.24, UTX +.75, TDY -2.27, and ITA $205.04 -.62 (.30%).

 

 

RETAIL: was LOWER influenced by DDS (see above) with the brands following along and M -.70, JWN -1.71, KSS -2.77, DDS -7.24, JCP +.04, WMT -.78, TGT -1.21, TJX -.71, RL -.35, UAA -.34, LULU +.25, NKE -1.70, TPR -1.65, CPRI -2.67 and XRT $44.40 - .93 (2.05%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MIXED with GOOGL +12.29, GOOGL +30.31, AAPL +.67, FB +3.87, NFLX +17.62, NVDA +1.79, TSLA -10.71, BABA -1.34, BIDU -1.03, IBM -1.33, BOX +1.03, CAT -.91, BA -5.27 and XLK $78.00 +.18 (.23%).

 

 

FINANCIALS: were LOWER with GS -1.60, JPM +.32, BAC -.03, MS -.32, C -.60, PNC +.70, AIG -.04, TRV -2.32, AXP -1.32, XLF $27.26 -.08 (.29%), and KBE $43.85 -.30 (.68%).

 

 

OIL, $65.55 +1.48 Today was a breakout over the consolidation discussed here last week and again in the Weekly Strategies Sunday night.  The high of the day was $65.99 and there is some supply between here and $67.50 and up to $70.00.  We will have to see how we consolidate for the next several days/weeks.

Today’s move was started with the announcements that the U.S. will not renew any of the waivers for purchases from Iran.  All of the stocks were higher with the smaller ones showing big percentage gains.  Those were MRO +1.16 (6.58%), RIG +.81 (9.16%), OAS +.43 (6.52%), NE +.16 (5.69%) and KMI +.73 (3.76%.  The XLE finished $68.61 +1.42 (2.11%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,277.60 +1.60. I initiated a short position here last Friday near the end of the day using the GLD 5/122 puts expecting a move lower.  We did buy the GLD 5/122 puts @ $1.20 last Friday and I sold half @ $2.20 last week for a nice gain.  We are now locked into a 4-day trading range at prior support between $1,273 on the bottom and $1,282.10 on the top.  If we break the lows I will add some GLD 5/119 puts, and if we break the top I will sell the puts and buy some calls.  I believe the upside is limited and the downside could easily reach $1,250.

 

 

Copper broke to the upside on the China 6.4% growth news late last week.  It finally moved through the $2.96.20 and ran to a high of $2.9955 before settling back to close $2.9675 + .0370.  Since then we have worked steadily lower while there is decent support from here down to $2.85 I see no reason to commit to a trade here.

 

BITCOIN: closed $5,395 +100. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   We have held the support just over $5,025 and if we can break above $5,480 we can test $5,900- 6,100.  Today’s move is back into support.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $7.07 +.17.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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Call 617-827-1296.

After the close 4/18/2019

 

 

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading April 22nd

 

 

PINS & ZM Highlight the Day

ZOOM, or ZM ?

 

Today’s DJIA was mixed again with the DJIA and S&P 500 gaining most of the day and the NASDAQ and the Russell running well behind.  By 10:00 we had made a run to 26,572 +122 and we spent the next 45 minutes sliding back to the low -6, followed by 4 hours of upward biased backing and filling to make a new high around 3:30 at 26,602 +150 before an expectable selloff into the close ahead of the long weekend.  While we have a 3-day, Europe is closed on Monday making it 4-day for them.  DJIA finished +110 (.42%), NASDAQ ran well behind at +1.98 (.02%), S&P 500 +4.58 (.16%) the Russell -1.85 (.12%), with the D.J. Transports +53.90 (,49%) with the rails leading the way.  Market internals were neutral with NYSE volume 1.2:1 and A/D 1:1, NASDAQ was 1:1 and 8:7 down and new highs were 86 and 69 respectively, well under the 125 to 150 average lately.  DJIA internals were 18 up / 12 down with the only double digit loser being GS (13) but after the past week or so, the move from $190 to 209 was due a little rest.  On the upside we had a nice bounce from the biggest losers of late, UNH (34), TRV (21), and BA (17), with MSFT (11) and MCD (23) continuing to gain to new all-time highs.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  Clearly the stars were the 2 IPO’s that started trading.  Pinterest (PINS) was priced at $19 and opened $23.75 and an hour or so of consolidation between $23.05 and $24.50 it moved to the new high of $25.18 and finished $24.40 +5.40 or 28.4%.  What were additional reasons for more public participation was the fact that there were no “selling shareholders” and all of the raise went directly to the company, and the price was actually lower than the last private raise, giving the public the advantage of buying a bargain.

 

The second name was ZOOM (ZM) at teleconference company priced at $36.  It opened at $65 and traded as high as $66 and then as low as $60.32 before closing $62 +26 (72.2%).  While obviously well received I have a problem with this one.  The last raise was done in 2017 at a value of $1billion, and while growing, at today’s price it is valued at $17billion.  Growth was 100% last year, but while profitable, its revenues were $335million.  That’s revenues, NOT earnings.  It is also in a market that has lots of competition CSCO is a major one, but there are plenty of startups that basically give it away.

 

There were a couple of secondary offerings that hurt a couple of names we’ve discussed here, most notably STNE, a financial and e-commerce firm in Brazil offering electronic solutions for in-store, online and mobile platforms.  The stock which traded $16.14 in January was added by Berkshire Hathaway and moved to $44.21 in March before topping out at $45.62 on the news it was doing an offering and fell to $34.  Today’s drop of $8.23 (23.6%) was caused by one of Brazil’s big banks, Itau Unibanco Holding SA, (NYSE:ITUB) moving into the advance credit card payments with a 2-day payoff, in comparison to STNE’s 30 days, clearly a problem for current growth projections.

 

Eiger Biopharma (EIGR) which moved from $9.00 to $15.33 this year is doing a 4,500,000 share offering and it was announced after the close yesterday (13.10) priced at $11.00.  The stock finished the day $11.03 -2.00 (15.35%).

 

On the earnings front we had SKX report with a miss top and bottom and while it recovered from the open at $29.64 – 5.64, it closed $31.60 -3.68 (10.43%).  CHKP also reported a slight beat, but below expectations and in line revenues and like SKX opened at the low and recovered to close on the high, but still -9.45 (7.37%).

TEAM also missed billing estimates and guided lower for Q4 profits and after trading $117.06 on Monday finished today $101.94 – 92.5 (8.32%).

 

In healthcare, ISRG, maker of the DaVinci system for automated surgery beat bottom line but missed on revenues and the stock, which traded $586 earlier this week but fell to $521 and closed the day $528.06.

 

Last night I mentioned JMIA, and IPO Friday in the middle of its range @ $14.50 and traded to another new high of $49.77 before coming back to earth a bit to close $40.07 -2.97 (6.9%). Today that continued and traded $31.70 before closing $35.15 -4.92 (12.28%).  Still a nice 4-day gain for the “Pan-African” e-commerce firm of 142%.

 

Under the heading of OOP’s!, we have ZOOM Technologies (ZOOM), which evidently was mistaken for the IPO today, ZOOM (ZM) and had a range today of $2.65 to $5.50 before closing the day $2.70 +.25.  This was similar to the mistaken trades a few years ago when Tweeter, a bankrupt auto and stereo seller was mistaken for TWTR (Twitter) and that stock went from pennies to dollars and back on the mistake.  BE CAREFUL OUT THERE !!

 

 

I’m going to skip the individual sectors tonight since the we have no market tomorrow and I’ll be back on Sunday night with the Weekly Strategies.

 

I hope everyone has a Happy Pesach or a good Easter holiday this weekend !!

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 4/17/2019

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading April 18th   

 

IBM Fails Again

HEALTHCARE, Insurers, Bio all Lower

 

Today’s DJIA was mixed at the open with IBM again missing on revenues last night and taking the wind out of the DJIA, as well as BA, MRK, TRV, and UNH all lower against AAPL, GS. HD, INTC and JNJ on the upside.  The high was in the first 10 minutes of trading at +52 and before 10:00 we had made the low -60.  The rest of the day was spent between -50 to +30, and the finals were DJIA -3.12 (.01%), NASDAQ -4.15 (.05%), S&P 500 -6.61 (.23%), the Russell the big loser – 15.19 (.96%), and DJ Transports the big gainer +114.37 (1.06%).  The initial positive futures were due primarily to a better outlook from the Chinese economic growth number at +6.4%.  Market internals were negative, although no terribly with NYSE volume 1.6:1 down, A/D 1.5:1, NASDAQ was slightly better with volume even at 1:1 and A/D 3:2.  There were still 120 new highs on NYSE and 86 NASDAQ.  DJIA were 18 up / 12 down with the biggest losers were IBM (41), UNH (28), MRK (25), and TRV (16) DPs, while the gainers were GS (41), AAPL (26), JPM (22), HD (15), and DIS (13).

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  Yesterday we had the “Medicare for All” pressure on the medical insurers and healthcare providers, and today they continued with some outsized losses carrying over to Bio/Pharma to boot. The list today included the who’s in healthcare with UNH -4.11 after trading -12, HUM – 2.18 after being -10, CI -5.62 (3.72%), MOH $116.69 -5.40 (4.42%), HCA $112 -2.38 (2.08%), ANTM $236.26 – 8.87 (3.62%), and CNC $46.99 -3.08 (6.15%).  Unfortunately, I don’t have the time to list all of the names that got hurt today as the list of the damage widened.

 

Earnings lead the way with a beat from PEP that started the day $125.00 +2.59 at a new all-time high and continuing to a high of $127.11 and a close of $127.01 +4.60 (3.76%).  MS also had good numbers and trading up to $48.26 +1.24 (2.64%).

 

On the missed side we had IBM opening -7.68 and tried all day to stabilize but finishing $139.11 -6.03 (4.15%).  NFLX was all over the place both last night and this morning trading both sides of unchanged with the premarket highs of $370+ never matched in official trading with a high of $368.21 +8.75 and a low of $350.60 -8.86, and finishing $354.74 -4.72 (1.31%).

 

It wasn’t all bad news, with the settlement between QCOM and AAPL sending QCOM from $57.29 up to close $70.45 +13.27 last night seems to have been only the opening act.  Today the stock continued to a high of $82.52 (for a 2-day gain of $25.23 or 44% low to high) and finished the day $79.08 +8.63 (12.25%).  Clearly many involved were considering this a “binary event” with a big win or big loss based on the trial.  If it had gone the other way, most felt the stock would have been $30.  INTC followed along with both QCOM and the Chinese numbers sent it to $59.59 and finished $58.56 +1.85 (3.26%).

 

On the M&A side, Apollo bought SFS for $6.50 and the stock moved right to the all-cash price + 1.11 (20.59%).

 

As I mentioned last night, D.J. Transports were split with JBHT following through again from yesterday’s loss to finish $98.51 -1.77 (1.77%) while CSX reported tonight and beat already just under all-time highs moved from the close of $75.89 to close $78.94 +3.05 (4.02%).  The division in the rails vs. trucking is getting wider since the economics of rails is over 30% and the discussion of “oil over rails” becomes more feasible with the oil over $60.

 

Last night I mentioned JMIA, and IPO Friday in the middle of its range @ $14.50 and traded to another new high of $$49.77 before coming back to earth a bit to close $40.07 -2.97 (6.9%). Still a nice 4-day gain for the “Pan-African” ecommerce firm of 176%.

 

Two late earnings reports to the downside were TEAM with a larger than expected Q3 loss, closed the day -1.20 after trading to a new all-time high at $117, is trading $99.36 -11.83 (10.64%) and Sleep Number (SNBR) beat but seemed a bit of a disappointment to some and the stock is $42.10 – 5.95 (12.38%).

 

Even on a day like today, there was still a home run.  Mustang Bio (MBIO) was the subject of a St. Jude Research Hospital published report on MBIO’s Lentviral Gene Therapy for the treatment of infants with X- linked Severe Combined Immunodeficiency in the New England Journal of Medicine after the close.  The stock, with a previous high of $13.35 in 2017 and a low Xmas eve of 2.18 had closed the day $2.66 - .15, but as soon as the news hit at just after 5:00 it took off on a run straight to $15.55, but has settled back to $9.50 +6.84 (2.56%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were LOWER, with only BCH +.32.  CELG -.01, BIIB -.56, ABBV -2.01 (2.51%), REGN -24.72 (5.72%), ISRG -36.43 (6.49%), MYL -.34, TEVA -.47 (3.2%), VRTX -11.89 (6.62%), INCY -2.65 (3.46%), ICPT -2.56 (2.79%), and IBB $105.18 -4.21 (3.85%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were MIXED with TLRY +.52, CGC +1.22 (2.93%), CRON +.13, GWPH -7.03 (4.32%), ACB +.08, PYX -.43, APHA -.81 (9.32%), NBEV +.07, ACRGF +1.87 (9.14%), and MJ $34.30 +.16 (.47%).  And a late story about CGC in a deal for increased acreage and the stock has jumped to $46.90 +7.07 (16.3%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were MIXED with LMT +.94, RTN -1.68, NOC -2.84, GD +.79, BWXT -.75, TXT +2.36 (4.53% ON GOOD EARNINGS AND UPGRADES), UTX +.45, TDY -1.83 and ITA $203.95 -.97 (.47%).

 

RETAIL: was HIGHER with the brands following along and M +.29, JWN +.36, KSS -.65, DDS -.18, JCP +.07 (5.6%), WMT +.08, TGT +.53, TJX +.57, RL +2.20, UAA +.14, LULU +1.52, NKE +.46, TPR +.04, CPRI +.82 and XRT $45.55 +.06 (.13%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MOSTLY LOWER with GOOGL +6.09, AMZN -1.14, AAPL +3.75, FB -.31, NFLX -5.56, NVDA -1.11, TSLA – 2.29, BABA +1.52, BIDU -.18, IBM -5.90, BOX -.49, CAT +.77, BA -4.23, and XLK $77.47 +.30 (.39%).

 

 

FINANCIALS: were HIGHER with GS +5.66, JPM +3.05, BAC +.11, MS +1.05, C +.87, PNC +.72, AIG -.77, TRV -2.52, AXP -.18, XLF $27.36 +.01, and KBE $43.87 -.82 (1.83%).

 

 

OIL, $63.76 -.29 Today was another day that held above the support in the $62.50 area as well as the 13 day moving average @ $62.38.  Just below that is the 20 day moving average, but as of now I don’t believe that it will come into play on this move.  The stocks are mixed to higher with XLE $67.41 -.19 (.28%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,276.80 - .40. I initiated a short position here on Friday near the end of the day using the GLD 5/122 puts expecting a move lower.  We ran into some support yesterday just over the point at which I considered a break, $1,284.90.  However, today we got a break to the downside to a low of $1,275.50.  Last night I said “If we break the low of $1,275.20, and carry through $1,271.80 on a close, I think we’ll test $1,250.00.”  I have no change in my projections.  We did buy the GLD 5/122 puts @ $1.20 on Friday and I sold half @ $2.20 today for a nice gain.  IF we get the breakdown we will add a lower strike price put to take further advantage.

 

 

Copper broke to the upside on the China 6.4% growth news today.  It finally moved through the $2.96.20 and ran to a high of $2.9955 before settling back to close $2.9675 + .0370.  We’ll have to see if it continues to move through $3.00.

 

BITCOIN: closed $5,235 +35. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   We have held the support just over $5,025 and if we can break above $5,480 we can test $5,900- 6,100.  Today’s move is back into support.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $6.71 +.02.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

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After the close 4/16/2019

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading April 17th   

 

This is Rotation

 

 

Today’s DJIA was mixed at the open with UNH and JNJ beating, BAC better than expected and an up close in China.  But by 9:45 we had already made the high of the day +146 and we slid right back down to +25.  We went sideways and spent the next several hours between +25 and +70 or so.  We had another rally from 2:15 -3:00 taking use back to +110 on the back of BA (see below) but by 3:30 we were making new lows of the day but we managed a gain to close +67.89 (.26%), NASDAQ +24.22 (.30%), S&P 500 +1.48 (.05%), the Russell -2.02 (.13%) and the DJ Transports managed a small gain +7.25 (.07%), but the CSX and UAL moves in the extended hours should push it higher in the morning.  Market internals were positive with NASDAQ the stronger.  NYSE volume was 1.5:1 and A/D 15:13 with NASDAQ 1.8:1 AND 1.5:1 respectively.  The new highs were again a touch higher with 156 and 125.  DJIA was 21:9 positive with UNH with a 64DP loss and DIS 15, on the pullback from its recent record run-up.  On the upside BA (45) and CAT (13), GS (13), JNJ (10) and TRV were all double-digit gainers.  The moves today in FAANG, Financials and Transports seem to be leading the market, and as always, rotation of group is essential for continued gains.  

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  Yesterday we had GS beat on earnings and trade higher, and today it was UNH beating top and bottom and being up premarket and then failing to hold the gains. By 9:45 we had traded $238.01 +7.66 (3.3%) before reversing and trading to $215.82 – 14.53 (6.3%) and making a new low for the year.  In its defense, it really didn’t have anything to do with UNH, but rather the group.  The Democrats (especially the leading candidates) have seemed to embrace “Medicare for All” and that has destroyed value in the whole medical insurers and operators.  The list today included the who’s in healthcare with UNH -9.18 (3.99%) HUM – 235.13 – 18.87 (7.43%), CI 151.04 -12.78 (7.8%), MOH $122.07 -9.91 (7.51%), HCA $114.38 -12.71 (10%), ANTM $245.06 -17.82 (6.78%)and down from $293.65 in the past 6 days, 16.7%, and CNC $50.07 -3.15 (5.92%).

 

Earnings lead the way with a beat from JNJ, closing toward the low of the day but still +1.50 (1.1%).  IP doesn’t report for over a week but gave guidance that left a lot to be desired.  Citing lower demand for boxes, and since they are the leading producer the materials group weakened across the board. Bank of America downgraded it to neutral from buy and the stock finished $44.93 -2.15 (4.57%).

 

Transports were split with JBHT following through from yesterday’s report to finish $100.28 -5.22 (4.96%) while CSX reported tonight and beat already just under all-time highs moved from the close of $75.89 is now trading $80 +4.11 (4.6%), and UAL beat and after closing $85.17 +.65 it is now $87.50 +2.32 (2.72%).

 

NFLX reported after closing $359.46 +10.59 (3.04%) with record subscriber gains but growth is slowing here at home.  The stock traded up on the headline to $374, fell back to $326 and is currently trading $354.29 -5.17…but it’s not over yet.  Too much excitement for me.

 

IBM beat bottom line but AGAIN missed on revenues.  It had closed $145.14 +1.24, and fell to $139, rallied back to near unchanged and is now $142.15 -2.99.

 

News played a part in QCOM as they settled with AAPL and around 2:45 the stock took off from $58.03 and by the close it was $70.45 +13.27 (23.21%).  It is now trading higher @ $73.00 +2.48 (3.37%).  AAPL is unaffected -.25.

 

One that I missed was JMIA, and IPO Friday in the middle of its range @ $14.50 closing $25.46, continued higher on Monday to $31.91 +6.46 and today $43.04 +11.13 (34.88%) for the 3-day gain for the “Pan-African” e-commerce firm of 197%.

 

Wave Life Sciences (WVE), was mentioned here on Thursday when the company reported that they had “aggressive timelines” for the enrollment and start of their phase 1b/2a trial and their topline data readout from its Huntington’s disease clinical trials will be delayed.  That day WVE had finished $33.91 – 7.84 (18.78%).

Today they reported results on their new drug for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy and although the results were good, investors had hoped for more aggressive dosing in this trial and were clearly disappointed as the stock fell to $24.47 -9.61 (28.20%).

 

The “Home run” of the day was little Rexahn Pharma (RNN), being granted an exclusive license from privately held BioSense Global LLC, to develop and commercialize RX-3117 for pancreatic cancer as well as other cancers in China.  They will receive a $3 million upfront and $226 million in milestone payments.  The stock was yet another 1:12 reverse split on Friday and closed $5.38 yesterday and opened $8.84, traded to $9.18 before closing $6.74 +1.36 (25.28%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were LOWER, with all but two, MYL +.14 and TEVA +.13 the only winners, with a weak overall healthcare sector.  IBB was $109.40 -1.09 (.99%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were HIGHER but only slightly after being in free-fall lately.    The stocks were TLRY +.76, CGC +.95, CRON +.06, GWPH -1.62, ACB +.32, PYX -1.02 (5.44%), APHA +.06, NBEV -.05, ACRGF -.13, and MJ $34.34 +.44 (1.3%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were MIXED with LMT +1.61, RTN -.60, NOC +2.28, GD +1.74, BWXT -.02, TXT +1.09, UTX +.31, TDY +.58, and ITA $204.92 +1.53 (.75%).

 

 

RETAIL: was MIXED TO HIGHER with the brands a little weak. M +.06, JWN +.22, KSS +.92, DDS +.08, JCP +.01, WMT +.57, TGT -.03, TJX +.25, RL +2.38, UAA -.16, LULU -2.23, NKE +.67, CPRI +.09 and XRT $45.49 +.22 (.49%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MOSTLY HIGHER with GOOGL +5.38, AMZN +16.33, AAPL -.19 (see below), FB -.65, NFLX (see below), NVDA +3.20, TSLA +6.41, BABA +2.47, BIDU +1.61, IBM -2.80, BOX -.32, CAT +1.78, BA +7.04 (on news from FAA on the 737 MAX retrain), and XLK $77.18 +.40 (.52%).

 

 

FINANCIALS: were HIGHER with a small bounce in GS +1.90, JPM +1.07, BAC +.01 after a poor report and a move down to $29 and a rally back to the high and closed $29.88, MS +.95, C +1.83, PNC +2.09, AIG +.94, TRV +1.56, AXP +1.35, and XLF $27.37 +.40 (1.48%) and KBE $44.69 +.76 (1.73%).

 

 

OIL, $64.05 +.65 Today was another day that held above the support in the $62.50 area as well as the 13 day moving average @ $62.38.  Just below that is the 20 day moving average, but as of now I don’t believe that it will come into play on this move.  The stocks are mixed to higher with CVX +.96, APC +1.34, BP -.08, COP -.34, APA +.65, PSX -.26, MPC -.34, MRO +.15, RIG +.06, OAS +.17, HES +.77, NE -.05, XOM +.55, VLO +1.11, KMI +.12 and XLE $67.77 +.61 (.91%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,277.20 – 14.10. I initiated a short position here on Friday near the end of the day using the GLD 5/122 puts expecting a move lower.  We ran into some support yesterday just over the point at which I considered a break, $1,284.90.  However, today we got a break to the downside to a low of $1,275.50.  This link is for the new video I did this afternoon:  https://youtu.be/XT9NQ--AFVY  It give a better picture than I can write without taking up another page or two.  If we break the low of $1,275.20, and carry through $1,271.80 on a close, I think we’ll test $1,250.00.  We did buy the GLD 5/122 puts @ $1.20 on Friday and I sold half @ $2.20 today for a nice gain.  IF we get the breakdown we will add a lower strike price put to take further advantage.

 

 

Copper continues to trade both sides of $2.90 -$2.95 but needs a close over $2.9550 to set it up to test $3.00 again. Today’s close of $2.9305 - .0045 was a non-event to me, however, we did try $2.9460 at the high today and a close over $2.9485 makes way for a test of the recent high of $2.9620. No one seems to agree that there is a continuing slowdown in Europe and China to send us higher so I’m just watching.

 

BITCOIN: closed $5,200 +190. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   We have held the support just over $5,025 and if we can break above $5,480 we can test $5,900- 6,100.  Today’s move is back into support.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $6.69 +.55.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 4/15/2019

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading April 16th   

 

 

GS Miss, DIS Hit

 

 

Today’s DJIA was weak from the start with BA and GS putting pressure on the market, but most stocks unaffected.  So, in a theme revisited for the last several days with a move lower, but not too much to make the low of -98 around noon followed by a slow but steady climb back to finish lower -27.53 (.09%), but on the highs of the day.  NASDAQ -8.15 (.10%), S&P 500 -1.83 (.06%), the Russell -5.63 (.36%) and the DJ Transports the weakest -92.72 (.85%) mostly from the truckers.  JBHT reported after the close and was as low as $99, now 100.05 -6.99 (6.4%).  Market internals were negative, but not much with NYSE volume 3:2, A/D 15:13 and NASDAQ 5:3 and 6:5 respectively, but new highs were higher again with 130 on NYSE and 111 NASDAQ.  The DJIA were 16 up /14 down with the losers, BA -29, GS -55, and MMM -11, and only 2 in double digits up DID + 14 and UNH +47 DPs.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  GS beat on earnings but missed on revenues and the stock was up initially moving up to $212.00 but as traders got into the numbers and one of the talking heads discussed the fact that GS was close to a high point using book-value (1.9X) we started to skid, opening well off the highs at $204.11 -3.73 and almost $8 off the pre-market high.  It continued lower to close $199.85 – 7.99 (3.84%) and 12.15 under the premarket high.

 

Citi (C) also beat and with only a slight miss on revenues and some of the internal metrics were that were better than expected.  The stock was quiet and although it finished lower it was only by $ .04.

 

As I mentioned in the Weekly Strategies last night, CVS was mentioned on the front page of Barron’s and was higher.  The stock closed $54.22 + 1.41 (2.67%). We own the May $55 calls @ $1.40 and they closed $1.60.  We went further out since I think that the stock, down along with WBA and the group, is in a position to move higher over the next several weeks.  There is important support at $52.

 

BPTH, discussed here on a regular basis since early March when it moved from $2.50 to a high of $73.25 in just 5 days after a 1:20 reverse split.  They were going to offer more shares and the stock had declined back as low as $14.60 last week but cancelled that offering and the stock rose back as high as $24.73 before finishing the day $20.74 +5.09 (32.52%).

 

Clovis Oncology (CLVS) reported that they were cancelling their trial on a drug for Bladder cancer since it was not meeting expectations.  The stock had risen from $11.50 in November to a high of $32.05 in late February but fell on the news today to close $20.55 -2.93 (12.48%).

 

Two big winner in the M & A arena were ADSW was bought by the much bigger Waste Management (WM) and the Street liked the deal so much that they rewarded both names with ADSW $31.99 +4.85 (17.87%) and WM, up from a low last week of $97.55 closed today $104.26 +2.47 (2.43%).

 

Siris Capital agreed to buy EFII today for $1.7billion.  The only question is “Why did the stock close $38.00 +8.60 (29.25%) if it’s a done deal?

 

And last, the “Disaster Du Jour” was RBZ.  I also reported on this one since it was also a reverse split 1:8 mid-March before running from an adjusted low of $6.00 to $38.90 in 5 days, followed by a move back over a 12-day period back to $8.34 before Friday’s move to $27.00 before closing $11.49 + $2.85 (32.99%).  The market didn’t take too kindly when the company announced the sale of $10.8 million in stock and warrants and punished the stock, finishing $5.10 -6.39 (55.61%).  It’s tough when 80% of your news reports are “halted for volatility and resumed trading.”

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were LOWER, with all but two, CELG +.96 and TEVA +.20 DOWN.  IBB was $110.49 -.56 (.50%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER and what I’m hearing is that there is already over-expansion in growing facilities pressuring pricing and slower than expected Federal action on decriminalization here in the U.S.  Like all new products or technology, the stocks bore no resemblance to actual values.  We’ve seen this in Internet in 1999/2000, Cyber security, Crypto, and now pot.  I’m clearly not negative on this group, but the excesses will need to be wrung out before we see a “buy and hold” attitude instead of just trading.  The stocks were TLRY -3.76 (7.11%), CGC -1.59 (3.76%), CRON -1.25 (7.34%), GWPH -3.43 (3.04%), ACB -.39 (4.39%), PYX -1.12 (5.65%), APHA -1.36 (13.37%), NBEV -.25 (4.5%), ACRGF +.06, and MJ $34.00 -1.09 (3.11%).

 

DEFENSE: were LOWER with LMT -1.61, RTN -1.65, NOC -2.83, GD -3.09, BWXT +.08, TXT -.23, UTX -.96, TDY +.92 and ITA $203.39 -1.65 (.90%).

 

RETAIL: was MIXED TO HIGHER and the brands, with M M +.34, JWN -.58, KSS +.33, DDS +1.09, JCP unchanged, WMT +1.21, TGT +1.25, TJX +.18, RL -.97, UAA +.05, LULU +2.13, NKE +.59, TPR -.26, CPRI -.37 and XRT $45.42 +.20 (.44%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MOSTLY LOWER with GOOGL +3.80, AMZN +1.81, AAPL +.06, FB +.48, NFLX -1.34, NVDA -5.50, TSLA -1.47, BABA -5.71, BIDU -4.60, IBM -.35, BOX +.02 CAT -.88, BA -5.09, and XLK $76.78 -.02 (.01%).

 

 

FINANCIALS: were LOWER with GS -8.03 (3.86%)see above, JPM -1.10, BAC -.34, MS -.62, C -.12, PNC -1.42, AIG -.39, TRV -.93, XLE $%26.96 -.18 (.66%) and KBE $43.93 -.81 (1.37%).

 

OIL, $63.40 -.49 Today was another day that held above the support in the $62.50 area as well as the 13 day moving average @ $62.38.  Just below that is the 20 day moving average, but as of now I don’t believe that it will come into play on this move.  Only 3 of the names on my list stayed higher today with CVX + .29, APC +.48, and KMI +.01.  The XLE finished $67.12 -.44 (.65%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,291.30 -3.90. I initiated a short position here on Friday near the end of the day using the GLD 5/122 puts expecting a move lower.  We did get that move overnight and this morning.  We ran into some support just over the point at which I considered a break, $1,284.90.  We bounced off $1,285.30, but we didn’t make it to unchanged or up on the day.  I will be on top of this tomorrow and if we don’t turn down below today’s low I’ll probably sell them.

 

 

Copper continues to trade both sides of $2.90 -$2.95 but needs a close over $2.9550 to set it up to test $3.00 again. Today’s close of $2.9350 -.0110 was a non-event to me. No one seems to agree that there is a continuing slowdown in Europe and China to send us higher so I’m just watching.

 

BITCOIN: closed $5,010 -55. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   The ranges had become miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked and I think there is more to go on the upside here.  In looking at the weekly chart a close over $5450 (the 11/12/18 close) looks to me like it yields $5800-5900.  Today’s move is back into support.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $6.14 -.35.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 4/11/2019

 

 

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

For Trading April 12th   

 

 

A Replay of Yesterday

 

 

Today’s DJIA was a replay of yesterday in its short range (26062 – 26187) with the high +44 by 10:00AM and the below unchanged by 11:15 and making its low of – 80 at 2:45 and a move back to close -14.11 (.05%), NASDAQ -16.88 (.21%), S&P 500 +.11 (.00), the Russell -2.41 (.15%) and the DJ Transports the big winner +89.98 (.84%) on the back of some airlines and truckers.  Market internals were a mix with NYSE volume 1.4:1 down while A/D was 15:13 up and 152 new highs.  NASDAQ was negative on both with volume 1.5:1 and A/D 9:7 but still with 81 new highs.  The DJIA was split with 17 up, 13 down and mostly moderate changes with BA +36, HD +14 (DPs) the only double digit moves higher and only AAPL -11 but UNH the major loser -10.61, or 72 DPs.  I’m guessing the Bernie Sanders “Medicare for All” and its estimated $33TRILLION price tag for the decade a culprit.

 

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  TSLA started the day off with news from Panasonic saying they were cutting investment in the new Japanese Giga factory and the stock moved lower to 265.60 -10.65 (3.9%) before a small rally to close about 2/3 up on the range at $268.42 -7.64 (2.77%).

 

FIVE was upgraded by JPM from $133 to $150.  The stock is up from the Xmas eve low of $86.50 to close today $13.55 +8.14 (6.49%) and is within striking distance of its all-time high of $136.13.  If you haven’t been to a Five Below you’ll be amazed at what they offer for $5 and below, and understand the stock price.

 

FRSH (Papa Murphy’s) received an all cash bid of $6.45 from MTY Foods for the company and it opened $6.41 and finished the day $6.42 +1.53 (31.29%).

 

Viking Therapeutics reported that their Phase 2 trial of VK2809 met its endpoint for NAFLD (Non-alcoholic fatty liver) and the stock opened @ $11 but sold off and closed $9.97 -.16.  The recent low was $7.00.

 

ICPT also had news on Regenerate and although the data was solidly positive for their Phase 3 trial for the NASH (non-alcoholic steato-hepatitis) but the market wasn’t as impressed as I would have expected and the stock, up from $87 in February and had closed $120.68 yesterday opened $110, traded as low as $102.66 and finished $104.75 -15.93 (13.20%).

 

WTW was downgraded by JPM and the price objective was lowered $2.00 to $12.00.  This has been an amazing story with Oprah taking a 15% position in the stock in March 2017 around $12.00 and becoming the face of the product, sending the stock on a 16 month run to $105, only to reverse on earnings disappointment and making the round-trip to close today $18.48 – 2.55 (12.13%).

 

Last week I did a piece on PHUN (Phunware) a company that had moved from $10.15 (12/28) to $550 (not a typo) in just 9 days and then fell back to $76 in 7 days, and then moved sideways to lower until breaking down from $71.50 to right back to a new low of $5.00 in just 15 trading days.  The company was touted as just about EVERYTHING that is hot from enabling e commerce on mobile to cloud and software development kits all on its platform.  Today the company reported that they had been awarded a patent for its Mobile Device Localization based on Relative Received Signal Strength.  I looked at all the info and I’m not smart enough to figure it out but the market liked the news sending the stock back to $8.88 +3.66 (70.11%) and slightly higher in late trading at $9.40.

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were LOWER, with all on my list down.  ICPT -16.68 (13.82%) see above.  IBB $111.67 -2.17 (1.91%).

 

CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY – 3.85 (6.75%), CGC -1.10, CRON -1.12 (6.22%), GWPH -1.32, ACB -.20, PYX -1.36 (6.28%), APHA -.26, NBEV -.27, ACRGF +.08 and MJ $35.15 -.75 (2.09%).

 

DEFENSE: were HIGHER with LMT +5.90, RTN +3.38, NOC +5.47, GD +3.10, BWXT +.49, TXT +.31, UTX +1.16, TDY +2.89, and ITA $201.84 +1.3%).

 

 

RETAIL: was MIXED with strength in the brands, with M -.31, JWN -2.40, KSS -1.41, DDS -1.02, JCP -.02, WMT +1.15, TGT +.25, TJX -.55, RL +.10, UAA +.34, LULU +.54, NKE +.02, TPR -.26, CPRI -.89, and XRT $45.32 -.29 (.64%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MOSTLY LOWER with GOOGL +3.05, AMZN -9.33, AAPL -1.82, FB -.31, NFLX +4.28, NVDA -.65, TSLA -7.06 (see comment above), BABA -1.19, BIDU -5.74 (3.24%), IBM +.93, BOX -.02, CAT +1.34, BA +8.06, and XLK $76.28, -.10 (.13%).

 

 

FINANCIALS: were HIGHER with GS +.12, JPM +1.12, BAC +.05, MS +.51, C +.40, PNC +1.37, AIG +.83, TRV +.82, AXP -.04, and XLF $26.68 +.19 (.72%) and KBE $43.69 +.19 (.44%).

 

 

OIL, $63.58 -1.03 Today was the first lower high, lower low in oil in quite a while.  There is plenty of support in the $62.50 area as well as the 13 day moving average @ $62.38.  Just below that is the 20 day moving average, but as of now I don’t believe that it will come into play on this move.  Only 3 of the names on my list stayed higher today with CVX +.46, XOM +.25 and VLO +.56.  The XLE WAS $67.32 -.01 (.01%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,293.30 -20.60. For the last several days I’ve been talking about getting back on the short side of the gold just a little higher.  Last night I said, “After a move higher for the past 4 days I’m looking to get short again with as little risk as possible, best guess, vs. $1,315-1320.”  Unfortunately, the move higher came overnight and by the open today we had come back down, and by the time stocks and options opened we had accelerated lower to a point where it would not be an acceptable risk to open the new position.  If we have a rally that fits our risk profile I will get short, but down here I cannot initiate in either direction.  There is meaningful support between $1,283-1,285.

 

 

Copper continues to trade both sides of $2.90 -$2.95 but needs a close over $2.9550 to set it up to test $3.00 again. Today’s close of $2.8870 - .0385 was a break to me. No one seems to agree that there is a continuing slowdown in Europe and China to send us higher so I’m just watching.

 

BITCOIN: closed $5075 -340 Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   The ranges had become miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked and I think there is more to go on the upside here.  In looking at the weekly chart a close over $5450 (the 11/12/18 close) looks to me like it yields $5800-5900.  Today’s move is back into support.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $6.66 -.66.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 4/10/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading April 11th 

 

Congress Wastes Another Day

LYFT Continues to Sink

 

Today’s market was mixed at the open with the DJIA soft on BA, again, and the NASDAQ and S&P higher.  This split has now controlled the market action for several days.  The DJIA managed a high of +50 early but within the first 30 minutes it had reversed to the low of the day -50.  A very boring several hours between -45 and unchanged followed.  At the end of the day the Dow managed to close +6.58 (.03%), NASDAQ +54.96 (.69%), S&P 500 +10.01 (.36%), the Russell, biggest loser yesterday was +21.87 (1.40%) and the biggest gainer today, and the DJ Transports edged up +2.38(.02%).  Market internals were positive with NYSE volume 2:1, A/D 3:1, with 143 new highs while the NASDAQ was just slightly less positive at volume 2.5:1, A/D 2.2:1 with 76 new highs.  Over at the DJIA we had 19 up, 11 down with the recent suspects on the downside with BA -28, UNH -19, HD -10 with not a single gainer of double digit DPs.

The only real news was the CPI (pre-open) and pretty much in line and then later in the day the Fed minutes, also as expectedly dovish.

 

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  As noted above, Congress wasted another day with their self-serving BS that involved asking the heads of the biggest banks questions that they were not at all interested in hearing the answers.  The grand standing is abhorrent and was a waste of our time and energy and a disgrace.  One of my favorite fools asked each CEO to actually answer the question, “Are you a socialist or a capitalist?”  REALLY???  What a jackass.  On the humorous side, Lloyd Blankfein tweeted today,

“Boy, I really miss my old job!!”

 

We had some good news for BRSS shareholders with an all cash bid of $44 from the foreign Wieland-Werke AG.  The deal is expected to close in the second half and requires some regulatory approvals.  BRSS closed $43.31 +8.72 (25.1%).

 

LYFT continues to fall.  After the brief rally last week from $66.10 to $76.10 the stock has continued on its downward move trading $59.75 in extended hours tonight.

 

We had a couple of small names issuing shares and moving lower.  Outlook Therapeutics had a 10.3 million unit offering after just having a 1:8 reverse just 3 weeks ago.  The high after the reverse was $8.80 but the stock has been drifting lower down $1.57 to $6.11 Friday and the -1.33 Monday, $1.63 Tuesday, and then an addition $1.42 to $1.73 today (45.08%).  Not a happy time.

 

Homology Medicines (FIXX), a genetic medicines company that announced last week a phase 1 / 2 trial for an “inborn error of metabolism” and traded as high as $31.50 that day is also issuing 5.555 million new shares well under market prices ($22.50) dropped by $5.99 yesterday and $1.46 today to close $22.11, down $9.39 from the date of the news and $7.45 (25%) from the announced offering.

 

As an aside, I make it a habit of only buying Bio/Pharma stocks who have 2 specific attributes, a new product that is in Phase 1 or 2 trials and most importantly, a strong partner like an Amgen or GILD, or really anyone with deep pockets.  This kind of dilution and the price slides that accompany it are not uncommon in an industry that gives no financial advantage until very late in the process.

 

Also on the short end of the stick today were Helius Medical (HSDT), when the FDA declined the company’s De Novo classification and 510K clearance of their Portable Neuromodulation Stimulator device.  The stock, which was also reversed 1:5 last January fell to $2.10 -4.11 (66.18%).

 

Wave Life Sciences (WVE) also had a bad day although not like the others.  The company reported that they had “aggressive timelines” for the enrollment and start of their phase 1b/2a trial and their topline data readout from its Huntington’s disease clinical trials will be delayed.  There are no approved therapies for Huntington’s and the delay will not derail their work.  WVE finished $33.91 – 7.84 (18.78%).

 

Enough bad news, on the positive side Goldman upgraded FSLR and the stock, up already from the Xmas eve low of $38.45 managed to gain another $4.64 to close $60.77 (8.27%).

 

DAL earnings pushed the shares, up from $48.68 just 10 days ago, traded $58.97 finished $57.86 + .91 (1.6%).  

 

BBBY missed after the close and although they beat on earnings, they missed on revenues.  Besides the miss, the company recorded its second lower sales number in as many years.  The stock is trading $17.52 -95.

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were HIGHER, with CELG +.24, BIIB +2.70, ABBV +.27, REGN +12.50 (3.16%), ISRG +6.51, MYL +.10, TEVA +.11, VRTX +2.06, BCH +.15, INCY +.68, ICPT +2.61 and IBB $114 +1.40 (1.24%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were HIGHER with TLRY +.58, CGC +.51, CRON +.31, GWPH +3.71, ACB +.27 (3.06%), PYX +.22, APHA +.32, NBEV -.01, ACRGF +.35, and MJ $35.90 +.63 (1.79%).

 

DEFENSE: were LOWER with LMT -2.78, RTN -.44, NOC -2.94, GD -.59, BWTX +.27, TXT +.02, UTX -.59, TDY +1.46, and ITA $199.26 -.61 (.31%).

 

 

RETAIL: was MIXED with a little more strength in the brands, with M -.37, JWN +1.02, KSS -.65, DDS +.17, JCP -.05 (3.82%), WMT +.76, TGT +.06, TJX +.62, RL +.51, UAA +.64, LULU -.06, NKE +.48, TPR -.16, CPRI +1.28, and XRT $45.63 +.68 (1.51%).

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MOSTLY HIGHER with GOOGL +3.76, AMZN +11.66, AAPL +1.05, FB +.47, NFLX -.91, NVDA +2.96, TSLA +4.48, BABA -.81, BIDU -3.91, IBM +.92, BOX +.25, CAT +1.42, BA -4.59, and XLK $76.47 +.62 (.82%).

 

 

FINANCIALS: were HIGHER with GS +2.36, JPM +.53, BAC +.18, MS +.14, C +.40, PNC +.49, AIG +.25, TRV +.27, AXP +.12, and XLF $26.52 +.11 (.42%) and KBE $43.50 +.37 (.86%).

 

 

OIL, $64.61 + .63 Today was another strong day and although it didn’t take out yesterday’s higher high (64.79), but the close looked great.  Now that we’ve closed over $63.41 the next highest close is $67.59 on a week we were -1.69.  Today’s gains came with the release of the weekly numbers for a 7 million build in crude (3.7 expected) but a dramatic drop of 7.7 million (vs exp.build) in gas.  The rise in price at the pump may start to be a grind on demand at these levels.  I’m still bullish and looking at $66.50 -68.00 before we have to pull-back.  The stocks were generally higher with CVX +.13, APC +.53, BP +.28, COP +1.27, APA +.84, PSX +1.71, MPC +1.44, MRO +.19, RIG -.12, OAS +.15, HES +.82, NE -.04, OXY -.10, XOM -.34, VLO +3.32 (3.9%), and XLE $67.33 +.25 (.37%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,313.90 +5.60 We have been trading the $GLD calls and puts almost weekly, and the chart has been incredibly reliable.  We have made great money on both sides and at the end of the week after a 200% gain in the 123 puts we saw a rally that gave us the opportunity to enter the short side again using the 4/122 puts @ $ .79.  After a move higher for the past 4 days I’m looking to get short again with as little risk as possible, best guess, vs. $1,315-1320.

 

 

Copper continues to trade both sides of $2.90 -$2.95 but needs a close over $2.9550 to set it up to test $3.00 again. Today’s close of $2.9255 -.0085 was meaningless to me. No one seems to agree that there is a continuing slowdown in Europe and China to send us higher so I’m just watching.

 

BITCOIN: closed $5415 +195 Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   The ranges had become miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked and I think there is more to go on the upside here.  In looking at the weekly chart a close over $5450 (the 11/12/18 close) looks to me like it yields $5800-5900.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $7.32 + .68.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 4/9/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading April 10th 

 

FB 1st Anniversary of the Apology Tour

 

 

Today’s market was lower at the open thanks again to the BA with more downgrades and the disclosure that there were no new orders for the 737 Max.  The downgrades reflect the extended period that it now appears it will take to get the 737s recertified both here and in Europe.  Just prior to the open, the futures were pretty benign with small losses but as we got closer we accelerated lower and by 9:35 we were -208, and made the low -240 in the next 5-minute bar.  It took until 12:30 for the market to claw its way up to the high of the day -130.  Right before the close we had fallen again toward the lows but made a slightly higher low and rallied 50 to finish -190 (.72%), NASDAQ -44.60 (.56%), S&P 500 -17.57 (.61%), the Russell -19.32 (1.22%)was the biggest loser followed closely by the DJ Transports -99.55 (.93%).  Market internals were as you would expect with NYSE volume and A/D 3:1 while NASDAQ was only slightly better at 2:1 and 3:2 respectively.  New high shrank to 93 / 61.  The DJIA were 25:5 and the only double digit gain was DIS +13 while the losers were BA -37, CAT -24, MMM -21, HD -18, and GS -13 (DPs).

 

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  As mentioned above, today is a year since Mr. Zuckerberg appeared before congress and explained how sorry he was for the failures of the company to protect the public’s personal information.  So, has anything changed?  Clearly not much since he and his second, Sheryl Sandberg, are still making apologies.  My attitude is that he couldn’t care less.  How would you feel if someone took your personal information on the side of a bus and drove it through Manhattan?  Would “I’m sorry” be enough?  How about if you knew that I amassed a personal fortune of $65 billion doing this to you and all your friends and family?  Oops, I’m sorry…

 

NVS looked like it was down about $10 this morning but in fact, it was the value of the spinoff of their eye care subsidiary Alcon (ALC).  It was done on a 1:5 rate, one share of ALC for every five NVS you owned.  So the close of $83.60 -11.52 (12.14%) was really not accurate.  If you started the day with 100 NVS @ $94.93 you had $9,493 of value and at the close today, you still had 100 @ $83.41 (8341) PLUS 20 ALC at $58.34 or (1166) for a total value of $9507, a gain.  Looks better than the net change in NVS.

 

ZGNX (last night -16) never hit the lows made in extended hours and bounced a bit to close right near its high at $39.96 -11.89 (22.93%), not great but it was worse.

 

On the earnings front, LEVI in its first report since the IPO at $17 on 3/21.  The stock traded higher from the start and had been bound by $24.19 and $21.24 closed the day $21.88 +.58 and after the news is currently $22.92 +1.04, an additional 4.7%.

 

Also doing better after reporting, JBLU closed $16.34 -.24 (1.45%) and after their report it is higher at $16.96 +.60 (3.67%) and there was an announcement for an “all hands” meeting tomorrow and speculation is that it is to announce plans for Trans-Atlantic routes that have been discuss for the past several months.

 

Not so great was the downgrade of U.S. Steel (X), downgraded this morning and the stock was cut in half since last August from $37.77 to last night’s close $19.74, and opened $18.82 and closed $17.77 -1.97 (9.98%).  NUE was also lower but not nearly as much, closing $58.84 – 1.64 (2.7%).

 

WDFC, WD-40, was also lower on a drop of 6% in sales and just inline guidance.  The stock had closed $172.34 and was as low as $163.30 but recovered to $166 -6.34 (3.86%).

 

AND THE HOMERUN OF THE DAY:

 

ATAI (ATA, Inc.) is an educational company that has traded between $1.22 and $ .26 and today they announced that they had entered into “agreements” with Bejing Huanquiuylmeng Education, a leading Chinese Service provider of Overseas Art Education.  After closing $1.02 Monday the stock opened $1.14 and traded as high as $2.54 and closed $2.12 +1.10 (107.84%).  HOWEVER, in extended hours it has moved to $3.08 and is currently $2.75 for the one-day gain of $1.73 (169%).

 

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were LOWER, with CELG -.91, BIIB -2.16, ABBV -.58, REGN -5.53, ISRG +1.04, MYL -.65, TEVA -.44, VRTX -.62, BCH -.08, INCY -1.70, ICPT -2.53 and IBB $112.60 -1.84 (1.61%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -.47, CGC -.95, CRON +.04, GWPH +1.07, ACB -.27, PYX -.09, APHA -.39, NBEV -.83 (12.52%), ACRGF -.91, and MJ $35.05 -.82 (2.29%).

 

DEFENSE: were LOWER with LMT -3.88, RTN -2.79, NOC -3.43, GD -3.13, BWXT -.70, TXT -1.40, UTX -1.65, TDY -2.03, and ITA $200.00 -2.38 (1.18%).

 

 

RETAIL: was LOWER with the brands also down.  The XRT was $44.95 -.55 (1.21%). We bought a small position in UAA 4/21.50 calls last Thursday @ $ .58, they were closed out today on the 50% Down Rule @ $ .28.

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MOSTLY LOWER with GOOGL -7.17, AMZN -14.84, AAPL -1.00, FB +2.65, NFLX +2.19, NVDA -2.79, TSLA -.89, BABA +.30, BIDU -4.17, IBM -1.23, BOX -.05, CAT -3.32, BA -5.01, and XLK $75.85 - .36 (.47%).

 

 

FINANCIALS: were LOWER with GS -2.14, JPM -.81, BAC -.32, MS -.73, C -1.00, PNC -1.44, AIG -.13, TRV -.69, AXP -.39, and XLF $26.41 -.22 (.83%) and KBE $43.13 -.75 (1.71%).

 

 

OIL, $63.98 -.42 Today was another day of a higher high (64.79), but a close down on the day.  Now that we’ve closed over $63.41 the next highest close is $67.59 on a week we were -1.69.  This is new recovery high ground, but the stocks have not been acting as well as I would expect.  The rise in price at the pump may start to be a grind on demand at these levels.  There are also some shortages of ethanol, but I’m still bullish and looking at $66.50 -68.00 before we have to pull-back.  The stocks were all lower with OAS +.02 and NE +.09 (3.03%) and the XLE closed $67.08 -.83 (1.22%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,308.30 +6.40 We have been trading the $GLD calls and puts almost weekly, and the chart has been incredibly reliable.  We have made great money on both sides and at the end of the week after a 200% gain in the 123 puts we saw a rally that gave us the opportunity to enter the short side again using the 4/122 puts @ $ .79.  After a move higher for the past 3 days I’m looking to get short again with as little risk as possible, best guess, vs. $1,315-1320.

 

 

Copper continues to trade both sides of $2.90 -$2.95 but needs a close over $2.9550 to set it up to test $3.00 again. Today’s close of $2.9340 +.0020 was meaningless to me. No one seems to agree that there is a continuing slowdown in Europe and China to send us higher so I’m just watching.

 

BITCOIN: closed $5220 +10 Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   The ranges had become miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked and I think there is more to go on the upside here.   I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $6.64 -.19.  We sold half @ $6.63 today for an $1,100 gain.

. 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 4/8/2019

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading April 8th 

 

BA Pounded on Production Cuts

 

 

Today’s market was lower at the open thanks to the BA cut of 20% of production of the 737 Max announced after the close on Friday.  It didn’t help that there were also more downgrades of ROKU, GE, MU, and CLX.  The preopen loss was all BA after trading 373, opening $376.16 -15.77 or about 110 DPs.  By 11:00 the DJIA was lower by 143, and 131 of it was BA.  By the close of the day, DJIA was -83.97 (.32%) while BA was -118 DPs, with NASDAQ +15.19 (.19%), S&P 500 +3.03 (.10%) with the Russell following the DJIA -3.55 (.22%) and DJ Transports edging out a gain of 2.06 (.02%).  The rest of the DJIA was 19 up, 11 lower with the only other double digit movers AAPL +21 and HD +10DPs.  Market internals were what you would expect on a day like today with NYSE volume 3:2 Up and A/D 1:1 and 99 new highs while NASDAQ was also 3:2 volume, but A/D 8:7 Down but also 89 new highs.

 

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  The other notable downgrades were Merrill on BA, Citi on ROKU, JPM on GE and MU, Raymond James on LUV, and Cowen on MU.  BA finished about mid-range -17.41 (4.44%), ROKU finished at the high of the day but still -2.67 (4.12%), GE at the high -.52 (5.19%), MU also high of the day and down only .42 (.97%) and LUV -1.31 (2.46%).  CLX also was downgraded by JPM and it too finished mid-range at $153.39 -2.21 (1.42%).  SNAP was upgraded by RBC and while closer to the low it too was +.43 (3.63%) and had more than doubled from the Xmas eve low of just under $5.

 

SNE has attracted the attention of Daniel Loeb and Third Point, who have been building a position in the stock, which had been stuck between $42-43, and the news drove the stock decidedly higher closing today $46.60 +3.53 (8.2%) on speculation that the activist was seeing value and wants to push for changes.

 

PHAS, PhaseBio was discussed here a few weeks ago when the stock doubled ($3.72 – 8.80) on news that it had received financing for its trial of PB2452 for “ticagrelor antiplatelet effects” that would allow safety from excessive bleeding and allow emergency surgeries.  Today’s announcement of positive results in that trial sent the stock to $17.63 +5.06 (40%).

 

On the other side of the coin, ZGNX was halted, news pending, with the company receiving a “Refusal to file” notice from the FDA on ZX006 that the NDA wasn’t sufficient to allow substantive review.  The drug was for the treatment of seizures from Dravet syndrome.  Dravet syndrome is a rare and catastrophic form of epilepsy which begins in infancy.  When it reopened it traded $35.75 – 16.09 (31%).

 

Last, but certainly not least, another name that I’ve discussed and is part of my Cannabis sector in the news again is NBEV.  The beverage company one among the first that jumped on the bandwagon to be looking to add a cannabis based drink when the laws changed late last year.  The stock, which was trading around $1.50, ran from that level to hit a peak of $9.99 in a week, did the normal backing and filling for the last several months between $3.50 and $8.00.  However, today’s announcement that it has signed an agreement with Walmart to sell 3 flavors of its Marley Mate brand, an organic yerba mate beverage.  This brand was acquired in 2017 and although it was originally planned to develop CBD infused drinks, the passage of the Farm Bill allowing Hemp, but not CBD sent the company in this other direction.   Regardless, the stock opened $5.37 + .58 and continued to gain as the details became evident and closed $6.63 +1.84 (38.41%).  The stock has been around since 2014, and seems a bit overbought, but certainly one to keep an eye on.  It still intends to develop a brand of drink, globally, once the FDA allows, for the CBD infused version for several forms of childhood epilepsy.

 

 

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were MIXED, with CELG +.20, BIIB -1.92, ABBV +.50, REGN -7.68, ISRG +2.62, MYL +.14, TEVA -.16, VRTX +.04, BCH +.18, INCY -.33, ICPT +3.15 and IBB $114.44 -.49 (.43%).

 

 

CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with the notable exception of NBEV (see above) and GWPH +8.12 (4.91%), TLRY -2.86, CGC -.58, CRON -.89, ACB -.15, PYX -1.33 (5.8%), ACRGF -.80 and MJ $35.85 -.44 (1.23%).

 

 

DEFENSE: were HIGHER with LMT +3.22, RTN +1.96, NOC +.60, GD +1.00, BWXT +.25, TXT +.04, TDY +2.96 and ITA $202.38 -1.95 (.95%) on the weakness in BA..

 

 

RETAIL: was MIXED TO HIGHER with the brands a little soft. M +.25, JWN -.57, KSS +.81, DDS +.58, JCP -.01, WMT +.28, TGT +.99, TJX +.22, RL -.19, UAA -.01, LULU +.40, NKE -.73, TPR -.44, CPRI +.77 and XRT $45.50 -.13 (.28%). We bought a small position in UAA 4/21.50 calls last Thursday @ $ .58, they closed $ .57.

 

 

FAANG: and big cap tech were MIXED with GOOGL -3.17, AMZN +13.82, AAPL +3.55, FB -.72, NFLX -3.49, NVDA +.90, TSLA -.66, BABA +1.11, BIDU +3.25, IBM +.06, BOX -.27, CAT -.39, BA -19.68(5.02%), and XLK $76.21 +.29 (.38%).

 

 

FINANCIALS: were HIGHER with GS +.20, JPM +.33, BAC +.11, MS +.05, C +.62, PNC +.33, AIG +.07 and XLF $26.67 +.07 (.26%).

 

 

OIL, $64.40 +1.32 Today was another day of a higher high, higher low and a close near the high of the day.  Now that we’ve closed over $63.41 the next highest close is $67.59 on a week we were -1.69.  This is new recovery high ground, but the stocks are not acting as well as I would expect.  The rise in price at the pump may start to be a grind on demand at these levels.  There are also some shortages of ethanol, but I’m still bullish and looking at $66.50 -68.00 before we have to pull-back.  The stocks were higher, but definitely didn’t match a 2.1% move in the oil.  XLE closed $67.97 +.36 (.53%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,301.90 +6.30 We have been trading the $GLD calls and puts almost weekly, and the chart has been incredibly reliable.  We have made great money on both sides and at the end of the week after a 200% gain in the 123 puts we saw a rally that gave us the opportunity to enter the short side again using the 4/122 puts @ $ .79.  After a move higher Friday and today I’m looking to get short again with as little risk as possible, best guess, vs. $1,315-1320.

 

 

Copper continues to trade both sides of $2.90 -$2.95 but needs a close over $2.9550 to set it up to test $3.00 again.  No one seems to agree that there is a continuing slowdown in Europe and China to send us higher so I’m just watching.

 

BITCOIN: closed $5210 +190 Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   The ranges had become miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked and I think there is more to go on the upside here.   I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $6.83 + .57.  We sold half @ $6.63 today for an $1,100 gain.

. 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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Call 617-827-1296.

After the close 4/4/2019

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading April 5th 

 

Chips Back Off – TSLA Crushed

 

 

Today’s market was mostly higher early with BA leading the way up.  After the open we were +95, and by 11:00 we were at the highs +170 before some sideways to down action making the low around 1:00 +75.  From there we had another trip higher and the close just off the highs +166.50 (.64%), Nasdaq -3.77 (.05%), S&P 500 +5.99 (.21%), the Russell +6.58 (.42%) and the DJ Transports in a narrow range and +46.57 (.44%).  

Market internals for the NYSE were solidly positive with volume 3:1, A/D 9:5, and 155 new highs, while over on NASDAQ we were much weaker all day with volume only 4:3, A/D 9:7 and only 62 new highs. DJIA stocks were 19 up, 11 down with BA leading the way with a gain of 79 DPs or almost half of the gain.  Other distant gainers were HD, DIS, MMM, MCD, UNH, and UTX, all up between 10 – 20 DPs.    

 

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  The biggest group down at NASDAQ was the software based business names like WDAY closed mid-range but -8.03 (4.15%), CYBR -5.97 (4.97%), CHKP -3.58 (2.8%), ADBE also mid-range but still lower by $3.61 (1.33%), INTU -6.45 (2.40%), and VMW -4.84 (2.6%).

 

TSLA was the biggest loser in the big cap leaders closing $267.78 -24.03 (8.23%) after trading down as low as -$32 on the decline of Q4 deliveries and the expected possible fallout from the NY District court and the SEC on the matter of Elon Musk’s continued and unauthorized Tweets.  As it turned out the judge told the DA and SEC official present in the courtroom to “work this out.”

 

There were also several upgrades and downgrades today with Guggenheim downgrading ROKU dropping it to $61.91 before closing off that low at $64.49 -4.11 (5.99%).  It was a busy day for them as they also upgraded FB which was as high as $178 before closing $176.02 + 2.48 (1.43%), and TWTR with a new price target moved up to $41.

Morgan Stanley downgraded MU to underweight based on a lack of any improvement in fundamentals while the price has risen.  Joseph Moore said that the long-term range is between $30 -$60, but see the likelihood is that it will see the low $30s before the high $50s.  The stock was lower all day finishing $42.89 -1.01 (2.3%).

 

DIS was upgraded and the stock, pretty much “dead money” in a 2-year consolidation between $100 and $120 looks ready to breakout and move higher.  It closed $114.75 +3.72 (3.35%).

 

After the close Duluth Holdings (DLTH) missed on top line, bottom line and gave poor guidance.  Some of this was blamed on a new Order management and inventory planning system’s “misalignment of inventory.”  The stock was as high as $35.67 last fall and closed the day $23.54 -.12 before the numbers but fell to $19.30 and is currently $19.48 – 4.06 (17.6%).

 

Shopify was lower today after announcing that they were suspending a client, Mailchimps, based on dispute about and “growing concerns about Mailchimps app because of poor merchant experience and their refusal to respect our Partner Program Agreement.”  SHOP was lower all day and finished $194.75 -10.37 (5.06%).

 

Constellation Brands (STZ) reported after the close yesterday that it had sold off some of their “lower end’ wine products to E.& J. Gallo for $1.7 billion, substantially less than the $3 billion that the street had figured and the stock traded lower.  However, when they reported a beat today, the CEO cited better beer sales and the expectations for the value of their investment (37%) in Canopy Growth (CGC) the leading pot company in Canada the stock moved higher and finished the day $191.45 +11.76 (6.54%) even though the CFO reminded everyone that there would be further losses in that area.

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were MIXED, with CELG +.52, BIIB +3.64, ABBV -.48, REGN -.47, ISRG -5.51, MTL +.44, TEVA +.32 (2.15%), VRTX -3.74, BCH +.05, INCY -1.85, ICPT -.37, and IBB $113.03 -.46 (.41%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were MIXED with TLRY -2.24, CGC +.26, CRON +.19, GWPH -3.57, ACB +.03, PYX +.15, APHA +.10, NBEV -.20, ACRGF -.03 and MJ $36.43 +.47 (1.31%).

 

 

DEFENSE   were HIGHER with LMT +2.72, RTN +.63, NOC +4.25, GD +1.72, BWXT +.49, TXT +.69, UTX +1.39, TDY +1.15, and ITA $203.18 +2.82 (1.41%).

 

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with the brands the same. M +1.38, JWN +1.23, KSS +2.44, DDS +2.95, JCP +.05 (3.55%), WMT +.92, TGT +1.99, TJX +1.07, RL +1.05, UAA +.62 (2.9%), LULU +5.09 (3.06%), NKE +.78, TPR +.61, CPRI +1.77, and XRT $45.99 +.86 (1.91%). We bought a small position in UAA 4/21.50 calls last Thursday @ $ .58, they closed $ .85 +.36.

 

 

FAANG and big cap tech were MIXED with GOOGL ++8.28, AMZN -3.61, AAPL +.13, FB +2.48 (see above upgrade info) and yet another disclosure that they left files on AMZN’s AWS in contrast to their stated policy that they would not use public cloud for storage, so look for another “apology tour”, NFLX -2.15, NVDA -.27, TSLA -23.86 (8.18%), BABA +2.79, BIDU +4.09, IBM -.85, BOX -.54, CAT +.87, BA +9.38 (2.44%), and XLK $75.56 -.32 (.42%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.38, JPM +.97, BAC +.29, MS +.60, C +.65, PNC +1.61, AIG +.78, and XLF $26.56 +.16 (.61%).

 

 

OIL, $62.10 -.36 Today was the first day of a lower high, lower low but no technical damage.  The next 2 higher closes that I’m targeting are $63.14 (which occurred on a week that we were – 4.45 and the next highest close at $67.59 on a week we were -1.69.  I mention these numbers since during those declines there wasn’t much trading to generate much supply. The stocks were mostly HIGHER with CVX +.96, APC +.59, BP +.01, APA +.31, PSX +1.82, MPC +1.12, MRO +.21, RIG +.10, OAS +.22 (3.72%), HES +1.19, NE +.03, OXY -.03, XOM +1.17, VLO +.44 and XLE $66.44 +.55 (.83%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,294.30 -1.00 We have been trading the $GLD calls and puts almost weekly, and the chart has been incredibly reliable.  We have made great money on both sides and at the end of the week after a 200% gain in the 123 puts we saw a rally that gave us the opportunity to enter the short side again using the 4/122 puts @ $ .79.  After a selloff this morning the Gold turned back up and I sold the puts between $1.00-1.03 for another profit. Yesterday I said, “I am a little tentative on this trade since unless we break solidly lower, there is meaningful support between $1280 -1,285.  I’m keeping a very close eye on this trade.  And we did.

 

 

Copper has had a great run from the $2.70-75 area to trade as high as $2.9885 yesterday before closing down on the day at $2.9245.  Today we moved back into resistance around $2.95 and closed at the lows at $2.91.00 -.0385.  I warned that this on is one of the more volatile metals and I’m still going to sit aside on a copper related trade, but that does not diminish its usefulness as a “tell” for economic expansion.

 

BITCOIN closed $4840 -310. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   The ranges had become miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked and I think there is more to go on the upside here.   I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $5.82 -.27

. 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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Call 617-827-1296.

After the close 4/3/2019

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading April 4th 

 

Chips Take the Lead

 

 

Today’s market was mostly higher early with continuing strength in China and Europe.  While it wasn’t a runaway, it was firm and survived a selloff late in the day when we made a nominal new low and then rallied into the close.  DJIA was the laggard with a gain of “only” +39 (.15%) while NASDAQ was +46.86 (.60%), S&P 500 +6.16 (.21%), the Russell +7.59 (.49%), and the DJ Transports -1.83 (.02%).  Market internals were positive with the NYSE underperforming with volume only 1:1, A/D 1.5:1 with 187 new highs while NASDAQ was 2.2:1, 3:2, and an increase to 104 new highs.  There were only 4 double digit DP moves with UNH +14, HD +29, GS +24, and the lone loser BA -39 DPs.  The totals were 18 up and 12 down.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  As noted yesterday, WBA missed on almost all metrics and after opening $55.83 – 7.66 and after managing to hold $55 it closed $55.35 -8.14 (12.82%).  The stock showed no signs of a bounce today, and while not drastically lower, it finished the day $54.84 -.52 (.94%).  LYFT also gave it the “

old college try” and rallied up to $72 but finished at $70 +1.03 (1.49%) and 2/3s down on the range.

 

Also, last night we had earnings reports from GME, with a gain of $1.46 vs. expectations of $1.60 and a miss on revenues.  The company also issued poor guidance for Q1, and a decline of between 5 - 10% for same store sales.  The stock did bounce off $9.00 and while not up on the day did finish down only $. 47 (4.65%).

 

CAT was downgraded and after a selloff to $138.41 it closed the day $139.26 -.93 (.66%) with no real concerted selling.

 

The big winners were the chip stocks based on the 14 month highs for China services and the upbeat manufacturing data in both China and here in the U.S.  Chipmakers get a big part of their revenues from China and took the lead in pre-market trading.  AMD finished the day $29.02 +2.27 (8.49%), MU $43.90 +1.46 (3.44%) and INTC $55.48 +1.12 (2.06%).  We had the second half of our position in the INTC 5/55 calls that were left after a 100% Up Rule sale last month and I sold them at $1.18 and they finished $1.15.  I expect a pullback and will look for another low risk entry point.  We’ve been in the 3/48s, 3/52.50s, and the 4/55c all with excellent gains.

 

Another big gainer I discussed here, STNE, moved from $30 to $44 last month decided to take advantage of its new lofty levels to issue 19.5 million shares of their Class A shares and after trading to a new high yesterday at $45.62 finished the day today $38.50 -3.65 (8.66%).

 

The “home-run of the day” wasn’t a Bio, but a small firm dealing in underwater power and communications platforms and monitoring subsea wells in the deep water of the Gulf of Mexico.  Commissioned by a “leading oil and gas exploration company” that was not named, they will do a 12-week study for the firm.  Add to the news, the fact that the company has been “reversed 1:10 and most recently 1:20 last month, the stock now has an adjusted high of $2,244, and the split adjusted low of $4.22, the volume (normally 135,000/day ballooned to over 20,000,000 today and after on 6 halted for volatility stops and restarts traded as high as $16.20 +11.20, it closed $7.76 +2.76 (55.2%).

 

The disaster du Jour isn’t quite so pretty, but a great story.  PHUN, public since 12/27 @ $10 for a market-cap of $92MM started off slowly but gathered some serious momentum.  The day after the deal it closed $14.26 +3.42 (31%) on 2,400 shares, 2 days later it was $26.68 + 12.42 (87%) on 14,400, but it was just getting started.  Day 5 saw it move 27.38 (102%), day 8 was a great one closing $220 +135 (158%) and day 9 it hit $550, traded down to $75 and finished $157 -63.  Since then the stock was all over the place between $330 and $30, before coming back to earth and in the last 3 weeks it fell from a high of $72 to close today $5.52 -8.49 (60%).  All this after reporting a loss of $9.8MM 14 days ago.  The only news today were the trading halts for volatility and the resumed trading announcements, 6 of them.  What interested me was what this company actually does.  It manages to touch on EVERY hot issue.  They are a mobile platform for multi-screen as service (Maas), Data as a service (Daas), enterprise software platform for mobile devices to allow brands to engage, manage and monetize their mobile application portfolios.  It is Cloud-based, Mobile Software Development Kits (SDKs) for integration on iOS and android modules to build in-house, channel-based application solutions.  There is more, but I’ll just skip to the end and mention their news that “Phunware Launches a $100Million PhunCoin Token Rights Sale.” AMAZING !!!

 

 

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were MIXED, with CELG +.41, BIIB -1.77, ABBV -.06, REGN -7.82, ISRG +.28, MYL -.63, TEVA -.09, VRTX +.78, BCH +.56, INCY -2.35, ICPT +1.33 and INN $113.49 +.67 (.59%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were LOWER with TLRY -.28, CGC +.23, CRON -.03, GWPH -.60, ACB -.17, PYX -1.51 (6.04%), APHA +.07, NBEV -.16, ACRGF +1.63 (7.89%) and MJ $35.95 -.43 (1.18%).

 

 

DEFENSE   were LOWER with LMT -5.11, RTN -8.44 (4.54%), NOC -4.84, GD -2.19, BWXT -.24, TXT -.40, UTX -.59, TDY +2.40, and ITA $201.50 -1.29 (.64%).

 

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with the brands the same. M +.03, JWN unchanged, KSS +.14, DDS +.03, JCP -.03, WMT +.25, TGT +.03, TJX +.09, RL unchanged, UAA +.37, LULU +.74, NKE +.10, TPR +.76, CPRI +1.56, and XRT $45.13 +.25 (.56%). We bought a small position in UAA 4/21.50 calls Thursday @ $ .58, they closed .49 -01.

 

 

FAANG and big cap tech were MIXED TO HIGHER with GOOGL +5.27, AMZN +8.02, AAPL +1.38, FB -.29 on yet another disclosure that they left files on AMZN’s AWS in contrast to their stated policy that they would not use public cloud for storage, so look for another “apology tour”, NFLX +2.38, NVDA +6.30 (3.44%), TSLA +5.52, BABA -2.99, BIDU +5.27 (3.08%), IBM +.70, BOX +.41, CAT -.69, BA +2.75, and XLK $75.88 +.61 (.81%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +3.80, JPM +.34, BAC unchanged, MS +.78, C +.66, PNC +.05, AIG unchanged, and XLF $26.40 +.08 (.30%).

 

 

OIL, $62.46 -.12 Today was another solid day with another higher high, higher low day that continues to keep the uptrend intact for the oil. The ability to hold $59 and the move over the closes just over $60.00 leads the way higher.  The next 2 higher closes that I’m targeting are $63.14 (which occurred on a week that we were – 4.45 and the next highest close at $67.59 on a week we were -1.69.  I mention these numbers since during those declines there wasn’t much trading to generate much supply. The stocks were mostly lower with CVX -1.04, APC -.77, BP +.26, COP -.84, APA -1.22, PSX +.86, MPC +.46, MRO -.20, RIG -.13, OAS -.13, HES -.79, HES -.79, NE -.09, OXY -.54, XOM -.07 and XLE $65.90 -.63 (.95%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,295. 30 - .10 We have been trading the $GLD calls and puts almost weekly, and the chart has been incredibly reliable.  We have made great money on both sides and at the end of the week after a 200% gain in the 123 puts we saw a rally that gave us the opportunity to enter the short side again using the 4/122 puts @ $ .79.  After a rally this morning to the high of $1,299, the Gold turned back down and settled basically unchanged.  Today’s action keeps me on the short side. Our  puts finished the day $ .91 +.03.  I am a little tentative on this trade since unless we break solidly lower, there is meaningful support between $1280 -1,285.  I’m keeping a very close eye on this trade.

 

 

Copper has had a great run from the $2.70-75 area to trade as high as $2.9885 yesterday before closing down on the day at $2.9245.  Today we moved back into resistance around $2.95 and closed at the highs $2.9485 +.0430.  I warned that this on is one of the more volatile metals and I’m still going to sit aside on a copper related trade, but that does not diminish its usefulness as a “tell” for economic expansion.

 

BITCOIN closed $5,150 + 375. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   The ranges had become miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Last week I said, now we’ll have to see if the change in direction can hold, with today’s high touching $4035 for the second day in a row but we really need a close over $4,100.  Started by either an April Fool’s joke or an unsubstantiated rumor, Bitcoin had another strong rally overnight and into today’s trading.  What looks like a short-covering rally that got it started, nevertheless broke through the resistance between $4,200-4,500 and continued up, with volume 100% over the recent peaks.  Tonight we are continuing higher by another $55 at $5205.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position @ $4.75 and we closed $$6.19 +.45. 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 4/2/2019

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading April 3RD

 

WBA MISSES BIG on all Metrics

 

 

Today’s market was mostly unchanged at the open with the notable exception of WBA taking about 55 DPs off the averages.  By 10:00 we were at the lows -115 and by 11:15 we were machining another nominal new low -140.  By late afternoon we had worked into a short range (60 points) and settled just slightly above the halfway point at 26,179.13 -79.29 (.30%), NASDAQ +19.78 (.25%), S&P 500 +.005, the Russell -2.74 (.18%) and DJ Transports -18.11 (.17%) even though the truckers and railroads were slightly lower, airlines ruled the day.  Market internals were split with NYSE numbers negative with volume 1.2:1 down, 5:3 A/D down while new highs continued to expand to 193.  NASDAQ was positive, but only in a small way with volume 4:3 and A/D 1:1 and new highs only 68.  As mentioned above, WBA was the worst performer -55.42 DPs and AAPL was the only double-digit gainer +19 DPs. There were only 9 (or 10) gainers with the balance lower.  The reason I’m a bit iffy on the numbers is due to the replacement of DWDP with DOW, not yet reflective of the change and showing DWDP as down 122 DPs even though it included the spinoff of DOW.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  As noted above, WBA missed on almost all metrics and after opening $55.83 – 7.66 and after managing to hold $55 it closed $55.35 -8.14 (12.82%).  The stock, bottoming around $20 in 2009 has had a steady rise to $97.27 in 2015 and a recent high of $86.31 early December has now been called a “broken” stock on its decline to $64.51, a minor rally to $73 followed by a break to $60, and another rally to $65 before today’s break.  Same store sales were lower, front of store, back of store, tobacco products and decreased margins on drug repayments based on newer, cheaper generics.  I think this is “dead money” for the next 6 months to a year.  They have great cash-flow to support itself, but I don’t think we’ll see a real bounce without too high a risk profile for the effort.

 

LYFT had another uneventful day with another new low @ $66.10 before a small rally to close $68.97 -.04.  Of course all of the talking heads that were so very impressed with the gap up and the increase in both price and size of the IPO (sound a bit like FB?) are now talking about how rich the offer was now that it’s 25% off the high and “under-water.”

 

Bitcoin names all rallied after the overnight gains with RIOT trading as high as $5.15 and closed $4.34 + .80 (22%), GBTC $5.74 +.77 (15.49%), see my comments on the sector, lower.

 

After the close we had earnings reports from GME, with a gain of $1.46 vs. expectations of $1.60 and a miss on revenues.  The company also issued poor guidance for Q1, and a decline of between 5 - 10% for same store sales.  The stock at its highs around $57 in 2014 has been in a steady decline, accelerating on a break from $47 to $24 in Q4 2015, and after a rally from the Xmas eve low of $11.56 to $16.90 by mid-January to close today $10.10 -.27 to gap lower to trade $9.24 – 1.14 (11.52%).  Also reporting was Dave & Busters (PLAY).  The stock made its all-time high of $73.48 in June 2017 traded to $37.98 last May and made it back to $67.05 in October.  After closing $50.48 +.10 it reported a solid beat, and increase of $200 million to its buyback and the stock is trading $53.90 +3.42 (6.78%).

 

The Bio/Pharma disaster du jour was EVOK, a specialty biopharma received a letter from the FDA on its NDA on Gimolti for relief of symptoms from acute diabetic gastroparesis stating that it cannot approve the NDA in its present form.  The stock had a recent high of $11.11 in 7/16 spent the last 2 years between $1.85 and $3.50 had fallen to $1.04 early last month before a rally to $2.00 just yesterday.  Today’s close on the news was $ .90 -.80 (47.06%).

 

The “homerun” Bio was EDAP, who reported earnings and announced that the University of Chicago became the first hospital in the Midwest to acquire their Focal One (R) HIFU advanced Robotic Technology for prostate cancer treatment.  With a high of $21.64 back in 2007, the company has spent most of the last 10 years between $1.50 and $7, it opened $3.50, traded $4.39 and finished $4.25 +1.26 (42.14%).

 

A close runner-up was SGMO, reporting upbeat trial data for its phase 1 / 2 study for SB-525 gene therapy for treatment of severe hemophilia A.  Up from a low of $6.26 in early February, the stock gapped up to $13.88, hit 13.91 and finished $12.29 +2.76 (28.96%).

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were MIXED, with CELG -.26, BIIB +.78, ABBV +2.32, REGN +4.77, ISRG +.44, MYL -.77, TEVA -.63 (4.01%), VRTX +1.06, BCH -.57, INCY +.75, ICPT +2.47, and IBB $112.82 +.91 (.81%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were LOWER with TLRY +.84, CGC +.42, CRON -.40, GWPH -2.49, ACB -.14, PYX -.31, APHA -.17, NBEV -.01, ACRGF +.26, and MJ $36.38 -.25 (.68%).

 

 

DEFENSE   were LOWER with LMT -1.19, RTN +1.05, NOC -.78, GD -2.37, BWXT -.64, TXT -.72, UTX -1.29, TDY +.57, and ITA $202.79 -1.29 (.63%).

 

RETAIL was LOWER with the brands the same. M + .15, JWN -.98, KSS +.66, DDS -1.99, JCP - .03, WMT -.90, TGT -.51, TJX -.13, RL -1.70, UAA +.13, LULU -.27, NKE -.94, TPR -.15, CPRI -.51 and XRT $44.88 -.42 (.93%). We bought a small position in UAA 4/21.50 calls Thursday @ $ .58, they closed .50 +.11.

 

 

FAANG and big cap tech were MIXED with GOOGL +4.23, AMZN -.69, AAPL +2.44, FB +5.35, NFLX +.49, NVDA +.62, TSLA -1.22, BABA -2.00, BIDU +.22, IBM -.35, BOX -.03, CAT -.25, BA -.94, and XLK $75.15 +.14 (.19%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +.54, JPM +.36, BAC +.30, MS +.17, C +.06, PNC -.15, AIG -.44 and XLF $26.32 -.02 (.08%).

 

 

OIL, $62.58 + .99 Today was another solid day with a clear breakout that just confirms my bullish stance. The ability to hold $59 and the move over the closes just over $60.00 leads the way higher.  The next 2 higher closes that I’m targeting are $63.14 (which occurred on a week that we were – 4.45 and the next highest close at $67.59 on a week we were -1.69.  I mention these numbers since during those declines there wasn’t much trading to generate much supply. The stocks were lower across the board with the rest of the market.  The XLE closed $66.53 -.46 (.69%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,295. 40 +1.20 We have been trading the $GLD calls and puts almost weekly, and the chart has been incredibly reliable.  We have made great money on both sides and at the end of the week after a 200% gain in the 123 puts we saw a rally that gave us the opportunity to enter the short side again using the 4/122 puts @ $ .79.  After a rally this morning the Gold turned back down and made a lower high and a nominally lower low, and the puts finished the day $ .88 -.28.  I am a little tentative on this trade since unless we break solidly lower, there is meaningful support between $1280 -1,285.  I’m keeping a very close eye on this trade.

 

 

Copper has had a great run from the $2.70-75 area to trade as high as $2.9885 yesterday before closing down on the day at $2.9245.  Today we followed to the downside finishing $2.9055 - .0190.  I warned that this on is one of the more volatile metals and I’m still going to sit aside on a copper related trade, but that does not diminish its usefulness as a “tell” for economic expansion.

 

BITCOIN closed $4,775 + 650. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   The ranges had become miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Last week I said, now we’ll have to see if the change in direction can hold, with today’s high touching $4035 for the second day in a row but we really need a close over $4,100.  Started by either an April Fool’s joke or an unsubstantiated rumor, Bitcoin had a major rally overnight and into today’s trading.  What looks like a short-covering rally that got it started, nevertheless broke through the resistance between $4,200-4,500 and continued up, with volume 100% over the recent peaks.  Tonight we are continuing higher by another $165 at $4940.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position today @ $4.75 and we closed $5.74 + .77. 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 4/1/2019

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading April 2nd

 

GOLD Tries and Fails, LYFT Doesn’t

 

 

Today’s market was higher at the open in line with the futures and helped by surprisingly positive China factory activity and some weakness in the bonds.  We were up around 200 at the open and with the exception of a 50-60-point pullback shortly after 10:00AM, we spent the whole day clawing higher.  The final numbers were excellent with the DJIA +329.74 (1.27%), NASDAQ +99.59 (1.29%), S&P 500 +32.79 (1.16%), the Russell +16.33 (1.06%) and the DJ Transports, the biggest gainer +235.75 (2.27%).  Market internals were strong all day with NYSE volume 3.5:1, A/D 3:1, and the new highs, 186 while over on NASDAQ we were only slightly less strong with volume 3:1, A/D 2.2:1 and 104 new highs.  On the DJIA we were 26:6 higher with the 2 biggest losers were MCD (-10 DPs) and UNH (-12 DPs) while the biggest gains being BA (+68), CAT (+33), GS (+33), HD (+26), MMM (+28) and UTX (+29).

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  After a sell-off late in the day on Friday took LYFT back well below its open ($78.29 vs 87.25), we gapped down this morning and without anything more than a $ .10 up-tick to $75, the stock headed directly through not only the original offering price of $72, but also below $70 to $67.78 and a close of $69.01 -9.28 (11.85%).  Unfortunately, this looks a bit like FB, opening at $46, just barely holding unchanged on the day, and then spending the next several weeks and months heading lower until finally making a bottom at $17.55 before starting back up for 3 years and making it up to $218 before its first big correction (50%) to $123.  I’m not saying that this is what is going to happen with LYFT, but remember, FB was the leader in its business, and LYFT is a distant #2.  I can only say that I’m not ready to risk and of my money on this name.

 

Prior to the open we had SORL with a slight miss on bottom line but reported a revenue gain of 20% above expectations and finished the day $3.28 +.40 (13.89%), PBYI signed an exclusive agreement for distribution of its breast cancer drug in Europe and Africa and although that was a positive development, the stock closed $35.64 -3.15 (8.12%), but the stock has risen from a low of $17.60 late last year to a recent high of $43.90.

 

News from Macau on GGR (gross gaming revenues) sent WYNN higher.  The stock, down from over $200 last fall on a combination of issues from divorce and the “Me-too movement” bottomed on Xmas eve at $90.06 finished the day $129.34 +10.02 (8.4%) with LVS $63.35 +2.39 (2.92%), MGM $26.59 +.93 (3.62%), and to a lesser extent CZR $8.84 +.15 (1.73%).

 

On the downside we have SCOR (Comscore) an agency that measures audiences, consumer behavior and giving prospective ratings of new products across all platforms worldwide.  The company announced the departure of the CEO, Bryan Wiener and president, Sarah Hofstetter both in their jobs for less than a year.  The company was also downgraded at Loop Capital, Suntrust, and Oppenheimer.  The company has lowered their expectations for revenues and the two departing officers had “irreconcilable differences over how to execute the company’s strategy.”  Sounds more like a divorce with the kids (shareholders) bearing the brunt of the pain with the stock finishing $14.24 -6.01 (29.68%).

 

The winner for the day in Bio / Pharma was PHAS.  The stock, only around since $5 on 10/18, has been trading between $5.00 and $2.50 but has had several successes in money raising and clinical trials.  Its focus is orphan diseases and had a smaller than expected losses and solid Phase 1 trial and has moved on to Phase 2 trial for PB1046 for treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension.  The stock broke out on the news of the published report in New England Journal of Medicine for PB2452, a “reversal agent for the antiplatelet drug ticagrelor.  In the last 2 weeks the stock rose from $3.00 to $8.88 in 4 days followed by a move to close Friday at $9.51, and today’s action, including a halt for volatility and finished $12.38 +2.87 (30.18%).

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were MIXED, with CELG -.94, BIIB -3.89, ABBV +.19, REGN -.57, ISRG +4.96, MYL +.13, TEVA +.04, VRTX +2.10, BCH +.24, INCY -.06, ICPT -.36 and IBB $111.91 +.11 (.10%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were MIXED with TLRY -2.52, CGC -.97, CRON +.17, GWPH -.43, ACB +.13, PYX +1.27 (5.32%), APHA +.55 (5.9%), NBEV -.03, ACRGF -.22 and MJ $36.91 +.54 (1.48%).

 

 

DEFENSE   were HIGHER with all names up over 1.27%, with LMT +4.13, RTN +2.68, NOC +4.51, GD +3.03, BWXT +1.26, TXT +.92, UTX +4.59, TDY +3.01 and ITA $204.00 +4.42 (2.21%).

 

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with the brands doing better. M + .54, JWN +.52, KSS +1.44, DDS +1.94, JCP -.04 (2.68%), WMT +.32, TGT -.29, TJX unchanged, RL -.69, UAA -.04, LULU +1.78, NKE +1.02, TPR +.90, CPRI +1.39, and XRT $45.30 +.29 (.64%). We bought a small position in UAA 4/21.50 calls Thursday @ $ .58, they closed .39.

 

 

FAANG and big cap tech were HIGHER with BABA the only exception closing -$1.40, GOOGL +22.09, AMZN +32.75, AAPL +1.25, FB +1.91, NFLX +10.02, NVDA +2.69, TSLA +7.40, BIDU +5.55, ICM +2.24, BOX +.18, CAT +4.54, BA +8.38, and XLK $74.93 +.93 (1.26%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +4.75, JPM +3.32, BAC +.93, MA +1.11, C +2.14, PNC +4.25, AIG +.93 and XLF $26.28 +.57 (2.22%).

 

 

OIL, $61.59 + 1.45 Today was another solid day with a clear breakout that just confirms my bullish stance. The ability to hold $59 and the move over the closes just over $60.00 leads the way higher.  The next 2 higher closes that I’m targeting are $63.14 (which occurred on a week that we were – 4.45 and the next highest close at $67.59 on a week we were -1.69.  I mention these numbers since during those declines there wasn’t much trading to generate much supply. The stocks were higher across the board with RIG +.55 (6.31%) the leader and NE +.12 (4.18%) a close second.  These little ones are getting plenty of play due to their leverage to the price of crude and have been lower by as much as 80%.  The XLE closed $66.99 +.87 (1.32%).

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,294.20 -4.50 We have been trading the $GLD calls and puts almost weekly, and the chart has been incredibly reliable.  We have made great money on both sides and at the end of the week after a 200% gain in the 123 puts we saw a rally that gave us the opportunity to enter the short side again using the 4/122 puts @ $ .79.  After a rally this morning the Gold turned back down and made a lower high and a nominally lower low, and the puts finished the day $1.16 +.22.  I am a little tentative on this trade since unless we break solidly lower, there is meaningful support between $1280 -1,285.  I’m keeping a very close eye on this trade.

 

 

Copper has had a great run from the $2.70-75 area to trade as high as $2.9885 today before closing down on the day at $2.9245 -.0115.  I warned that this on is one of the more volatile metals and I’m still going to sit aside on a copper related trade, but that does not diminish its usefulness as a “tell” for economic expansion.

 

BITCOIN closed $4,125 + 50. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   The ranges have become miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Last week I said, now we’ll have to see if the change in direction can hold, with today’s high touching $4035 for the second day in a row but we really need a close over $4,100.  Today’s move to close over $4,100 and makes the next high close of $4,180 on a week that BC closed -$1,260.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position today @ $4.75 and we closed $4.97 +.19. 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 3/28/2019

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 29th

 

GOLD Break, 200% GAIN on the Puts

 

 

Today’s market was higher at the open in line with the futures and was up 100 almost immediately, but by 9:45 we had made the high of the day +117 and started back down, crossing back to down by 11:30 and moving to the low of day -50.  A late rally took us back to within 20 of the morning high and we closed +91.87 (.36%), NASDAQ +25.79 (.34%), S&P 500 +10.07 (.36%), the Russell finished +12.87 (.86%) while the big winner of the day was DJ Transports, led by airlines, +122.23 (1.2%).  Market internals were even across the board on both the NYSE and NASDAQ with volume 2:1, A/D 2:1 with the only differences the new highs of 157 on NY, and only 64 on NASDAQ.  The DJIA had a remarkably quiet day with 26 up and 4 down but only two companies in double digits, MCD on the upside 12.94 DPs, and VZ on the downside with 12.14 DPs.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  The “take-under” of WBC, maker of auto brakes by ZN Friedrichshafen AG for $136.50 a share, over $9.00 under yesterday’s close of $146.01.  The stock was up from late December from $98.90 to a new high just yesterday at $146.68 after a consolidation since the 2/27 move of +9.74.   Besides the general disappointment about the deal, the sharks (class action attorneys) have already started to circle with no less than 3 soliciting disappointed shareholders.  I guess we’ll see if there are any other bidders, both Continental AG, and Cummins (CMI) had been rumored to be interested but nothing had developed.

 

Another takeover got a thumbs up by outside advisor (Stifel) , ON received the ruling that the price agreed to represent “fair value,” nonetheless, the sharks (3 firms) are “investigating the proposed acquisition.”  Is this a great country or what?

 

AMRN got a bit of a boost with a new filing to the FDA for a cardio-vascular drug that has been in development and is used in conjunction with current Statins.  While it wasn’t a blockbuster new finding, the stock was trading at $2.99 when they made the initial finding (9/18) and resulted in a move to $12.40 +9.41 (315%).  The stock has been a steady climber since then made a new high last October and came within pennies of that on 3/5 at $23.25.  The stock traded $16.65 yesterday and after hitting $19.77 it closed $18.44 +.36.  

 

NLSN, yes, the TV rating service got pounded on the news that Blackstone is no longer interested in acquiring the company.  The chart shows some other disappointment in July 2018 when it fell from $29.57 to $20.53, closing $22.11 – 7.46.  The stock never really recovered trading between $22 and $28 and after closing 26.63 yesterday gapped down on the open to $24.49 and closed within $ .06 from the low at $23.66 -2.97 (11.15%).

 

So, how does it make you feel when after months of calls for your firing, you “retire” and you stock turns on a dime and heads higher?  That’s what Tim Sloan had to watch when after his announcement WFC, which closed $49.09 traded up immediately to $50.72 and the last is $50.40 + 1.32 or 2.6%.

 

Also after the close RH (formally Restoration Hardware) maker of higher end furnishings

Reported with a beat on earnings but a miss on revenues.  They also gave lowered guidance and took an “Impairment charge” (not the first and possibly not the last) related to its investment in Waterworks.  The stock, a former high-flyer with a low of $24.41 in 2017 and a high of $164.49 last year, had been going sideways until the report, closing $131.93 +2.53, fell to $106.60 and is currently $110.50 – 21.40 (16.23%).

 

Today’ homer-run of the day was not a Bio/Pharma, (CLWT) but what looks like a food company selling to China.  I say looks like since there isn’t anything on the normal services that describes the company.  Today’s news coverage was several (12) postings of “Euro Tech Holdings (resumed trading or CLWT paused for volatility.)  The stock shows a high just over $23, due to a 2:11 reverse split and has since been trading mostly between $2.00 and $5.00, closed yesterday $3.34 and gapped up to $7.30, traded as high of $11.73 before finishing the day $6.85 +3.51 (105.09%).

 

The “disaster du Jour” was a little one called Proteon Therapeutics (PRTO) which missed the endpoints on a study for a new drug for chronic kidney disease.  The stock traded as high as $20 back in 2015 and after a weekly drop from $9.90 to $2.10 in December 2016 it traded in a range of $1.25 to $3.00 before a new recovery high $3.94 on 3/16 it opened the day today @ $.57 and traded down to $ .48 before closing $ .50 - $2.98 (85.63%). I hate when that happens.

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were MIXED, with CELG -1.23, BIIB +2.85, ABBV -.18, REGN +1.96, ISRG +4.62, MYL -.01, TEVA -.40, VRTX -3.40, BCH +.11, INCY -.28, ICPT +.38 and IBB $109.46 +.66 (.61%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were MIXED with TLRY +1.09, CGC -.52, CRON +.58, GWPH +.53, ACB -.07, PYX +1.40 (5.78%), APHA -.09, NBEV +.08, ACRGF -.98 (4.5%), and MJ $36.05 -.09 (.25%).

 

 

DEFENSE   were HIGHER with LMT +4.04, RTN +1.68, NOC +.57, GD +.02, BWXT +1.03, TXT +.32, UTX +.97 and ITA $197.39, +1.37 (.70%).

 

 

RETAIL was MIXED with the brands doing better. M -.03, JWN -.33, KSS -.88, DDS -1.26, JCP -.02, WMT -.09 TGT +.51, TJX unchanged, RL +4.71 (3.77%), UAA +.30, LULU +19.47 (13.26% as it followed thru from yesterday’s earnings report), NKE +.95, TPR +.33, CPRI +1.27 and XRT $44.87 +.18 (.40%). We bought a small position in UAA 4/21.50 calls today # $ .58, they closed .59.

 

 

FAANG and big cap tech were MIXED with GOOGL -5.74, AMZN +7.80, AAPL +.48, FB -.30, NFLX +1.63, NVDA -.80, TSLA +3.72, BABA +.63, BIDU -.18, IBM +.18, BOX +.21, CAT +1.17, BA -.91 and XLK $73.28 +.30 (.41%)

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.37, JPM +1.23, BAC +.30, MS +.53, C +1.17, PNC +1.59, AIG -.04, and XLF $25.64 +.22 (.87%).

 

 

OIL, $59.30 -.11 Today was another solid day with yet another test below $59 (58.20) and this just confirms my bullish stance. The ability to hold $59 and to close there is impressive. The next barrier is the still the high close at $60.23. The stocks were again today and Oil is trading + .22 tonight. The XLE close of $66.22 +.25 was +.38%.

 

 

METALS, GOLD: $1,289.80 – 20.60 As mentioned in my last Daily Note on Thursday I’m a little concerned that we are working our way into a “bear flag” so I may just close this out before the weekend.  So, after I took the gains on the second half of our position and today, as we approached the top of that Bear Flag we bought two “half positions” in the GLD 123 puts in equal amounts at $ .53 and $ .44, for an average price $ .485.  Today we clearly broke the uptrend line the yellow metal fell to just above its longer term support between $1280-1282.  We sold the first half of the options at $1.49, (although there were some split sales with a few done at $ .97) for a great gain, I matched the sales today with the buys @ $ .53 (FIFO) so the balance are the ones bought second at $ .44.  They closed $1.61 +.84.  CHECK OUT THIS VIDEO, #73 ON THE GOLD:  https://youtu.be/OX-R-SjwxHo

 

Copper continues to sit between the current support at $2.85, with today’s range having a slightly higher low and higher high.  The chart does not impress me and if we break below the close at $2.8425 we will have to test $2.75 – 2.80.  $2.90 still looks like formidable resistance.

 

BITCOIN closed $4,010 + 5. Bitcoin is probably the purist of any futures contract to trade.  There is absolutely no correlation to any other market, or any actual intrinsic value to the underlying asset.   The ranges have become miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll have to see if the change in direction can hold, with today’s high touching $4035 for the second day in a row but we really need a close over $4,100.  Another issue is the fact that the CBOE has decided that it will not continue to trade Bitcoin any longer.  The reason given was the lack of volume, and it is my opinion that this will actually help our position in GBTC, since it will be one of the few places that traders will be able to participate.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position today @ $4.75 and we closed $4.54 -8.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

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After the close 3/27/2019

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 28th

 

GOLD Near a Major Break

 

 

Today’s market was higher at the open in line with the futures and was up 100 almost immediately.  However, by 10:00AM we were back on the downside and we continued thru noon to reach -212, but by 2:15 we were down only 10.  We continued back and forth until we moved to +30, but finished the day -32.14 (.14%), NASDAQ -48.14 (48.14 (.63%), S&P 500 -13.09 (.46%), the Russell -5.93 (.39%) and the biggest winner, DJ Transports +90.23 (.89%).  Market internals, pointed out here yesterday as soft, were negative today with NYSE volume 2:1 down and A/D 15:13 lower with the only bright spot of 174 new highs while NASDAQ 1.6:1, 3:2 and 68 new highs respectively.  DJIA A/D was 21 down and 9 up with the big gainers AAPL, BA, and TRV.  The only loser of double digit DPs was UNH -11.39.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  AAPL was higher as there was some misinformation about which court had ruled against AAPL, and it turned out it was a small loss, but the secondary patent suit, a larger case was actually found in favor of AAPL. The stock was higher at the open and was consistently higher all day.

 

 

There was some good news for WCG, as CNC announced a cash and stock deal to make the new combined company the largest government health insurance provider in America.  WCG, which fell from a new all-time high just under $325 in early October had fallen to close yesterday at $231, opened $255 and traded as high of $260.82 before closing $259.81 +28.54 (12.34%).  CNC holders were not as impressed, opening $50.08, falling to $49.56 before finishing the day $52.12 -2.73 (4.98%).  CNC has fallen from its December high at $74.49 to break the lows from the end of December 2017.  The stock has been split several time in past years, most recently 2:1 on 2/7, but has been weak all of this year.

 

LULU beat on both top and bottom line, even after giving positive guidance several times, beating even the most optimistic expectations.  The stock, trading on Xmas eve at $110, moving to a new recovery high of $158.67 on February 13th closed today $146.80 +3.24 moved straight up after the numbers and traded as high as $162.89 and is trading $162.40 + 15.60 (10.68%).

 

Another “lets add block-chain to our name” company, RBZ, an Indonesian luxury goods e-commerce platform signed a MOU (memo of understanding) with VeChain to adopt Block-chain technology for innovation.  The only real news on the company today was the announcement of trading halts due to volatility, no less than 6 times with a range on the day of $11.73 to $38.90 (not a typo) and finished the day at $28.00 +19.25 (220%).

 

Last night SCVL reported and the good news carried over to this morning when the stock opened $36.83 +6.35, traded as high as $37.72 before closing 37.30 +6.82 (22.38%).  Who says that retail is dead?

 

PVH also reported and beat across all metrics with great forward guidance and exceptional numbers from its Calvin Klein sub.  The stock, down from its recent highs near $170 closed today $110.89 +.79 (.72%) and in late trading we hit $124.91 and are now $122 +11.08 (9.98%).

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were LOWER, with the only exceptions MYL +.07, and TEVA +.08.  The biggest loser on my list was ICPT –5.85 (5.25%) with VRTX -4.09 (2.15%), and the IBB $108.80 -1.53 (1.39%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were sharply LOWER with TLRY -2.45, CGC -2.35, CRON – 2.22 (10.97%), GWPH -4.98, ACB -.38, PYX -1.23, APHA -.38, NBEV -.07, ACRGF -.97 and MJ $36.15 -1.15 (3.08%).

 

 

DEFENSE   were LOWER with LMT -1.18, RTN -.91, NOC -1.93, GD -.20, BWXT -.55, TXT -.22, UTX +.16 and ITA $196.02 +.04%).

 

RETAIL was MIXED with the brands doing better. M +.38, JWN +.92, KSS +1.05, DDS -.02, JCP -.02, WMT -1.12, TGT +.19, TJX +.66, RL +3.07, UAA +.23, LULU +18.11 (see above), NKE -.28, TPR +.75, CPRI +1.51, and XRT $44.69 +.45 (1.02%).

 

 

FAANG and big cap tech were MIXED TO LOWER with GOOGL -11.83, AMZN -23.76, AAPL +1.39, FB -2.43, NFLX -6.60, NVDA-1.02, TSLA +6.99 (2.61%), BABA -.88, BIDU -3.00, IBM -.24, BOX -.17, CAT -.34, BA +3.97 and XLK $71.98 -.42 (.57%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER but not too badly with GS -1.68, JPM -.35, BAC -.20, MS -.58, C -.19, PNC -.19, AIG -.25 and XLF $25.42 -.11 (.43%).

 

 

OIL, $59.41 -.53 Today was a weak day with the oil in a range of $60.22 to 58.80 and closed midrange. This just confirms my bullish stance. The ability to hold $59 (58.81) and not break. The next barrier is the still the high close at $60.23. The stocks were lower across my whole list, but not for big losses, with the XLE closing $65.97 -.47 (.71%).

 

 

METALS, $1,310.40 – 4.60 As mentioned in my last Daily Note on Thursday I’m a little concerned that we are working our way into a “bear flag” so I may just close this out before the weekend.  So, I took the gains on the second half of our position and today, as we approached the top of that Bear Flag we bought two “half positions” in the GLD 123 puts in equal amounts at $ .53 and $ .44, for an average price $ .485.  While The gold closed near the low of the day, I’m pleased with the position.  The options close $ .77 +.23.  Getting very close to the 100% Up Rule trigger.

 

The economic stimulus from China has done nothing to help the Copper, it had a downdraft that we had some follow-thru from the decline from last week’s high just under $2.97. to $2.83, putting Copper in a bearish position.  It seems to be holding the $283-2.85 range but it will need either some major good news that and turn it back up, but I feel like a test of $2.75-80 is more likely.

 

BITCOIN closed $4,005 +100. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several weeks going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position today @ $4.75 and we closed $4.62 +.06.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold, with today’s high touching $4025, we really need a close over $4,100.  Another issue is the fact that the CBOE has decided that it will not continue to trade Bitcoin any longer.  The reason given was the lack of volume, and it is my opinion that this will actually help our position in GBTC, since it will be one of the few places that traders will be able to participate.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 3/26/2019

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 27th

 

Financials Stronger

 

Today’s market was higher at the open in line with the futures and European markets.  The open was +200, and we moved higher to make the high around 11:00 at +270.  The next 2 hours took us down, but still higher than last night’s close at 25,596 +80 or so.  By 2:30 we were barely up (+35), but at the close we had rallied back to finish +$140.90 (.55%), NASDAQ +53.98 (.71%), S&P 500 +20.10 (.72%), the Russell +15.30 (1.01%) and the DJ Transports also +106.62 (1.07%).  Market internals were stronger on the NYSE where volume was 4:1, A/D 3:1 with 161 new highs while NASDAQ was 1.8:1, 2:1 and new highs of only 61 respectively.  DJIA A/D was 25:5 with two of those five down pretty hard.  UNH has been a loser since December when it was $287.88 and fell to $231 before a rally back to $272 and then sold off again closing the day $243.39 -3.47 or $24 DPs.  The only other double digit DP loser was AAPL -14DPs.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  AAPL was higher as is also usually the case, when consumers figured out that the economic value of its APPLE NEWS + is actually quite a bargain with even just 2 or 3 of the magazines that I already buy, this is a savings.  While I’m pretty sure that no one is likely to buy all of the offerings, the value there is roughly $8,000.  The fact is, that if you want see Home and Garden instead of, or in addition to Rolling Stone, it’s there.  Unfortunately, the judge in the AAPL/ Qualcomm case rule in Qualcomm’s favor on one count of infringement and the news took AAPL from a high of $192.88 down to $184.58 and it closed $186.66 -2.08 (1.09%).

 

BBBY has a group of activists in the stock and they have made their demands clear, a new board and CEO.  The “Street” must agree because the stock, which in earlier days was split 2:1 3 times in 1996, 1998, and 2000 and has a split adjusted high of $80, has been on a protracted decline to close yesterday at $13.87, opened today @ $17.44, traded to $18.09, and finished the day $16.92 +3.05 (21.99%).  It didn’t hurt the stock that there is a 35% short position.

 

Carnival (CCL) missed again and gave lowered guidance moving forward.  The stock, up from $15 in 2009 with a steady upward move to $72 last January has declined to hit $45 in December and rallied back to close $56.65 Monday traded down about 3% in

Pre-market trading and opened $52.45 and continued to fall to $51.08 before closing $51.71 -4.94 (8.72%).

 

Another company dealing is ships, but I doubt anyone here would be interested in taking a cruise on one of their “dry-bulk carriers” is CTRM.  The company, located in Cyprus has only traded here since 3/11, with a range of $19.00 -3.99 during that time had a pretty good day opening $4.90 and moving up to close $10.15 +5.25 (107.14%).  I could find no news or really much information like shares outstanding or anything other than today’s volume of 1.9million and its gain on the “most percentage gain list.”.

 

KBH reported earnings after the close and beat on earnings but missed revenues.  The stock has been all over the place these last couple of years from $9.04 in 2016 to $38.80 in January 2018, and back to $16.82 last November and closed today $24.08.  After the numbers the stock traded from the close to $23.20 and up to $15.02 all within just 5 minutes.  The last is $24.36 +.28.

 

And the winner of the Home-run Bio / Pharma stock of the day was ALDX, with a phase 3 trial for Alleviate, their topical solution for allergic conjunctivitis.  ALDX has been around since 2014 and has traded between $3 and $16 opened the day @ $8.14, traded up to $12.79 before closing the day near the low at $9.71 +2.57 (35.99%), but in the after-market has traded up to $16.40 and is currently $12.70 up an additional 2.99 for a total gain on the day of $7.80 (159%).

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were HIGHER, with the only exception MYL -.14.  CELG +1.30, BIIB +12.39 (5.63%) on renewed optimism about an MS application to the FDA and its psoriasis treatment pipeline, ABBV +1.39, REGN +10.62, ISRG +4.92, TEVA +.12, VRTX +6.06, BCH +.04, INCY +1.10, ICPT +2.01, and IBB $110.05 +1.73 (1.6%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were LOWER with TLRY -.90, CGC +.32, CRON -.59, GWPH +1.94, ACB -.09, PYX -.91, APHA -.05, NBEV -.04, ACRGF -.01 and MJ $37.25 +.32 (.87%).

 

DEFENSE   were HIGHER with LMT +1.39, RTN +.29, NOC -3.35, GD +.61, BWXT +.27, TXT +.10, UTX +.74 and ITA $195.95 +.27 (.14%).

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with both the retailers and the brands up.  M +.06, JWN +.19, KSS +.17, DDS +.18, JCP +.04, WMT +.15, TGT +1.24, TJX +.05, RL -.32, UAA unchanged, LULU -2.88, NKE +.97, TPR +.38, CPRI +.56, and XRT $44.24 +.32 (.73%).

 

FAANG and big cap tech were MIXED with GOOGL -6.38, AMZN +12.24, AAPL -.24, FB +1.39, NFLX -6.28, NVDA +3.07, TSLA +7.63 (2.93%), BABA -.81, BIDU +.86, IBM +.04, BOX +.04, CAT +.80, BA -2.13 and XLK 73.62 +.62 (.85%).

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.55, JPM +.86, BAC +.33, MS +.61, C+.84, PNC +2.52, AIG +.60 and XLF $25.52 +.29 (1.15%).

 

OIL, $60.02 +1.22 Today was a strong day with the oil in a range of $60.38 to 59.04 (it opened up and never traded back into yesterday’s range) and closed nearer the highs. This just confirms my bullish stance.  The next barrier is the high close at $60.23. The stocks were higher with the only exception on my list NE -.05,  CVX +1.21, APC +1.40, BP +.29, COP +1.23, APA +1.07, PSX +3.14, MPC +1.24, MRO +.40, RIG +.11, OAS +.03, HES +1.55, OXY +2.07, XOM +1.08, VLO +1.55 and XLE $66.46 +.95 (1.47%).

 

 

METALS, $1,315 -7.40 As mentioned in my last Daily Note on Thursday I’m a little concerned that we are working our way into a “bear flag” so I may just close this out before the weekend.  So, I took the gains on the second half of our position and today, as we approached the top of that Bear Flag we bought two “half positions” in the GLD 123 puts in equal amounts at $ .53 and $ .44, for an average price $ .485.  While The gold closed near the low of the day, I’m pleased with the position.  The options close $ .54 +.10.

 

The economic stimulus from China has done nothing to help the Copper, it had a downdraft that we had some follow-thru from the decline from last week’s high just under $2.97. to $2.83, putting Copper in a bearish position.  It will need either some major good news that and turn it back up, but I feel like a test of $2.75-80 is more likely.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,905 +10. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several weeks going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position today @ $4.75 and we closed $4.56 -.01.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold, with today’s high touching $4025, we really need a close over $4,100.  Another issue is the fact that the CBOE has decided that it will not continue to trade Bitcoin any longer.  The reason given was the lack of volume, and it is my opinion that this will actually help our position in GBTC, since it will be one of the few places that traders will be able to participate.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs

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After the close 3/25/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 26th

 

 

AAPL Fails to WOW

 

Today’s market was a seesaw affair starting with a slightly lower open and a decline to the low of the day -130 but after a two hour climb we had made a high of the day +100.  We then declined back to a slightly higher low by about 2:30 when we started a move back up to unchanged and finished +14.61 (.06%), NASDAQ -6.13 (.076%), S&P 500 -.2.35 (.006%), the Russell +6.04 (.48%), and the DJ Transports -13.51 (.09%).  Market internals were not bad after the follow-thru after Friday’s big selloff.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  AAPL failed to really wow the public or the market with their streaming news at midday, although it has been up from $142 to $197 (38.7%) YTD.  This is typical for them, and while Oprah, Jennifer Aniston, and Reese Witherspoon didn’t help much, the deals that they are offering, like the Apple+ News seems an excellent bundle.  NCTY, in a joint venture with Faraday & Future to build, market and distribute electric cars in China traded up to $3.83 on the news but was overcome with profit taking and finished $2.01 -.51 (20%) after being up $1.31 (52%).  TSLA was lower on fears that it will have cash-flow problems as it approaches a $1billion payment that it needs to make on its convertible bonds since the stock is not high enough to be profitably converted.  And NKE had kind of a tough start of the day with follow-thru from Friday’s sell-off of $5.82 (6.6%) and trading down today on the news that celebrity lawyer Michael Avenatti, was going to have a press conference tomorrow where he was going to “expose a high school violation” including information that NKE had broken the law relating to “secret payments.”  The stock sold off to $80.89 – 1.40 (1.4%).  That was at 12:15, but at 12:30 the news hit that Mr. Avenatti had been arrested on conspiracy and extortion charges in NYC, and charges also pending in LA…and NKE managed an immediate rally and a close up on the day.

 

The Bio / Pharma home run of the day was AXSM, a stock that closed the year $2.82 +.64 (29%) but down from $15.74 in February 2016, broke to the upside on 1/7 to $6.87 +4.24 (161%), and opened today $14.10 closing within pennies from its high and +3.34 (25.69%).  The company recently has had several upgrades with moves to overweight with targets of $25.  The company has a new depression drug.

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were generally HIGHER, with CELG +.05, BIIB +3.25, ABBV -.25, REGN +3.20, ISRG +1.46, MYL -.37, TEVA -.42, VRTX +2.32, BCH +.01, INCY +.68, ICPT -.51 and IBB $108.41 +.24 (.22%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were HIGHER with TLRY +.84, CGC unchanged, CRON +1.47, GWPH -3.81, ACB +.21, PYX -1.30 (5.03%), APHA +.13, NBEV +.19, ACRGF +.75, and $37.05 +.22 (.60%).

 

 DEFENSE   were HIGHER with LMT + .49, RTN +.56, NOC -1.38, GD +.55, BWXT +.22, TXT -.09, UTX +.25 and ITA $195.68 +1.40 (.72%).

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with both the retailers and the brands up.  M +.55, JWN +1.27, KSS +1.70, DDS +1.36, JCP +.01, WMT -.11, TGT -.31, TJX +.41, RL +2.35, UAA +.15, LULU +3.37, NKE +.71, TPR +.64, CPRI +.41, and XRT $43.92 +.50 (1.15%).

 

 

FAANG and big cap tech were HIGHER with GOOGL – 10.27, AMZN +14.23, AAPL -1.89, NFLX +5.29, NVDA -3.54, BABA +2.71, TSLA -3.17, BIDU +.15, IBM +.18, BOX unchanged, CAT+1.62, BA +8.23, and the XLE $73.00 -.32 (.44%).

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -.41, JPM -.70, BAC -.16, PNC unchanged, C -.52, AIG -.17, and XLF $25.23 -.11 (.43%)

 

OIL, $58.82 - .22 Today was a generally quiet day with the oil in a range of $58.17 (a slightly lower low) and a high of $59.35 closing pretty much in the middle.  This does nothing to dissuade my bullish stand.  We are higher tonight by $ .54 putting us just over the todays high.  The stocks were mixed but XLE CLOSED $65.50 +.03 (.05%).

 

 

METALS, $1,322 +10.30 As mentioned in my last Daily Note on Thursday I’m a little concerned that we are working our way into a “bear flag” so I may just close this out before the weekend.  So, I took the gains on the second half of our position and today, as we approached the top of that Bear Flag we bought two “half positions” in the GLD 123 puts in equal amounts at $ .53 and $ .44, for an average price $ .485.  While The gold closed near the high of the day, we are down $2.00.  The options close $ .44.

 

The economic stimulus from China has done nothing to help the Copper, it had a downdraft that we had some follow-thru from the decline from last week’s high just under $2.97. to $2.83, putting Copper in a bearish position.  It will need either some major good news that and turn it back up, but I feel like a test of $2.75-80 is more likely.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,895 - 85 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several weeks going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position today @ $4.75 and we closed $4.57 -.22.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold, with today’s high touching $4025, we really need a close over $4,100.  Another issue is the fact that the CBOE has decided that it will not continue to trade Bitcoin any longer.  The reason given was the lack of volume, and it is my opinion that this will actually help our position in GBTC, since it will be one of the few places that traders will be able to participate.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

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After the close 3/21/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 22nd

 

Biogen Fail!

Everyone Hates Financials

LEVI Returns, AGAIN

 

Today’s market was lower at the start with the futures leaning the bias, but it only lasted about 10 minutes and we turned higher and really never looked back.  The combination of several of the big DJIA names pulled us higher with the likes of AAPL, HD, and TRV helping with the heavy lifting.  At the close there were only 4 Dow stocks lower, BA, DIS, JPM and KO, while GS, weak early managed a gain of pennies.  The DJIA was +216.84 (.84%), NASDAQ +109.99 (1.42%), S&P 500 +30.65 (1.09%), the Russell +19.25 (1.25%) and the DJ Transports + 142.41 (1.4%).   Market internals were okay, not overwhelming, with NYSE volume 5:3, A/D 2.2:1 and 100% expansion of the new highs list while NASDAQ were 2.5:1, 1.7:1 and 121 new highs (a slight increase).

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  The news that BIIB was ending a trial for a new drug to treat Alzheimer’s sent the stock much lower pre-market to trade $229.68 – 90.91 (28%), having its worst day in 14 years, sinking during the day to a low of $224.60 and finishing weak at $226.88 -93.71 (29.23%).  Today’s news cast doubt about what kind of new drug pipeline the company has, and making outside acquisitions seem necessary, a road most companies tend to avoid if possible.

 

LEVI returned to the public market again with an IPO priced at $17, and opened at $22.174 + 5.17 or 30.4%, and trading over $23 and finishing $22.44 +5.44 a 32% gain from the pricing.  The demand was good and the stock traded well over the size of the deal.

 

SPI, a solar company announced the completion of acquisition of 1.998 Megawatt facility in Greece and was up in premarket and after moving as high as $7.32 + 4.71 (180%) to close 4.20 +1.59 (60.92%).  Another stock with earnings was on my list of stocks with good dividend yield and the available options to protect against loss (page 4 of the Weekly Strategies letter) originally put out @ $21.69 had moved a little higher, but reported better than expected numbers traded up to $26.17 and closed $25.82 +2.92 (12.75%) today.  Not a bad return for roughly 5 weeks.

 

Nike (NKE) reported after the close and was a mild disappointment on both equipment and the Converse.  The stock has been a big gainer, up 18% YTD, and traded to new highs Tuesday but is currently $84.24 – 3.77 (4.2%).

 

One last stock added to the $100,000 (stock and option) portfolio just yesterday morning, using the texting service, SDRL @ $9.39 finished $10.15 +.57 (5.95%).  It’s just another deeply depressed energy (drilling) stock that has completed a three-month consolidation and looks to move higher.

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were generally higher, but the dark cloud over the group was BIIB (see above) down 29.27%, but CELG +.63, ABBV +.26, REGN -2.91, ISRG +8.62 (1.51%), MYL +.54, TEVA +.22, VRTX +2.58, BCH -.47, INCY +.77, ICPT +2.06 and IBB $111.97 -1.21 (1.07%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were MIXED to LOWER with TLRY -.73, CGC -.80, CRON -.63, GWPH +5.60 (3.29%), ACB -.23, PYX -.09, APHA -.07, NBEV -.16, ACRGF +.51, and MJ $38.57 (.52%).

 

 

DEFENSE   were HIGHER with LMT +3.03, RTN +2.36, NOC +2.02, GD +1.34, BWXT +.31, TXT +.45, UTX +1.57, and ITA $199.07 +1.51 (.76%).

 

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with both the retailers and the brands up.  M +.41, JWN +.31, KSS +.35, DDS +.98, JCP +.02, WMT +.51, TGT +2.38 (3.07%), TJX -.05, RL +1.89, UAA +.11, LULU +4.95 (3.43%), NKE -2.60 (see above), TPR +.10, CPRI -.04 and XRT $44.58 +.45 (1.02%).

 

 

FAANG and big cap tech were HIGHER with GOOGL +11.36, AMZN +23.09, AAPL +7.77 (4.13%), FB +.93, NFLX +3.83, NVDA +9.23 (5.29%), TSLA +.69, BABA +.44, BIDU +1.85, IBM +2.16, IBM +2.16, BOX +.38, CAT +1.26, BA -2.50, and XLK $75.09 +1.84 (2.1%).  As I mentioned above, the rush to buy growth favors this group, and on a mixed to lower day the outperformance is evident.

 

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER. This is exactly what I have been talking about with this group failing to take a leadership position.  I can only say that this sector has been a fairly constant disappointment, and today is an example.  The lack of impetus for the Fed to raise rates anytime soon, and the use of the reserve rate giving the banks a riskless reason to NOT make loans, you can see why it will not perform.  The XLF was $26.04 - .10 (.38%).

 

 

OIL, $59.98 - .25 Today was a quiet day. Since this market put in its bottom in late December we have had pretty much an orderly move higher with higher lows and higher highs sometimes called a “running correction.”  The highest close (on the way down from $76) was $59.93, and we broke that today.  There are only 2 closes between here and $62.00. The whole list I follow was higher with a few exceptions, even with the lower oil., but those were only down pennies, and XLE was $67.29 +.47 (.70%).

 

 

METALS, $1,307 +5.60 As mentioned we came out of a “Bull Flag” and I was looking for $1,350-60 and the high last Wednesday was $1349.80 and we finished our liquidation vs. $1347.  We went back in vs. $1,293 with the GLD 3/122 calls and sold half on the 100% Up Rule and sold the balance to roll forward to the April 124 calls @ $ .89. They closed $ 1.51, and we sold half today @ $1.25.  I’m a little concerned that we are working our way into a “bear flag” so I may just close this out before the weekend.

 

The economic news from China has added to an advance here toward $3.00.  Last week’s move was pretty dramatic moving to just over $2.97.  Today’s rally all the way up to $2.969 and then fall back to close down on the day may be an ominous sign. IF we are going higher, we’ll need a close over $2.9570.  Remember that this commodity traded from a contract high over $3.31 in June to make a new contract low in just 5 weeks.  When it gets volatile, it really moves.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,965 – 40 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several weeks going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position today @ $4.75 and we closed $4.81 -.11 after trading as high as $5.00.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold, with today’s high touching $4025, we really need a close over $4,100.  

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 26th

 

 

AAPL Fails to WOW

 

Today’s market was a see-saw affair starting with a slightly lower open and a decline to the low of the day -130 but after a two hour climb we had made a high of the day +100.  We then declined back to a slightly higher low by about 2:30 when we started a move back up to unchanged and finished +14.61 (.06%), NASDAQ -6.13 (.076%), S&P 500 -.2.35 (.006%), the Russell +6.04 (.48%), and the DJ Transports -13.51 (.09%).  Market internals were not bad after the follow-thru after Friday’s big selloff.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  AAPL failed to really wow the public or the market with their streaming news at midday, although it has been up from $142 to $197 (38.7%) YTD.  This is typical for them, and while Oprah, Jennifer Aniston, and Reese Witherspoon didn’t help much, the deals that they are offering, like the Apple+ News seems an excellent bundle.  NCTY, in a joint venture with Faraday & Future to build, market and distribute electric cars in China traded up to $3.83 on the news but was overcome with profit taking and finished $2.01 -.51 (20%) after being up $1.31 (52%).  TSLA was lower on fears that it will have cash-flow problems as it approaches a $1billion payment that it needs to make on its convertible bonds since the stock is not high enough to be profitably converted.  And NKE had kind of a tough start of the day with follow-thru from Friday’s sell-off of $5.82 (6.6%) and trading down today on the news that celebrity lawyer Michael Avenatti, was going to have a press conference tomorrow where he was going to “expose a high school violation” including information that NKE had broken the law relating to “secret payments.”  The stock sold off to $80.89 – 1.40 (1.4%).  That was at 12:15, but at 12:30 the news hit that Mr. Avenatti had been arrested on conspiracy and extortion charges in NYC, and charges also pending in LA…and NKE managed an immediate rally and a close up on the day.

 

The Bio / Pharma home run of the day was AXSM, a stock that closed the year $2.82 +.64 (29%) but down from $15.74 in February 2016, broke to the upside on 1/7 to $6.87 +4.24 (161%), and opened today $14.10 closing within pennies from its high and +3.34 (25.69%).  The company recently has had several upgrades with moves to overweight with targets of $25.  The company has a new depression drug.

 

 

 

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were generally HIGHER, with CELG +.05, BIIB +3.25, ABBV -.25, REGN +3.20, ISRG +1.46, MYL -.37, TEVA -.42, VRTX +2.32, BCH +.01, INCY +.68, ICPT -.51 and IBB $108.41 +.24 (.22%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were HIGHER with TLRY +.84, CGC unchanged, CRON +1.47, GWPH -3.81, ACB +.21, PYX -1.30 (5.03%), APHA +.13, NBEV +.19, ACRGF +.75, and $37.05 +.22 (.60%).

 

 

DEFENSE   were HIGHER with LMT + .49, RTN +.56, NOC -1.38, GD +.55, BWXT +.22, TXT -.09, UTX +.25 and ITA $195.68 +1.40 (.72%).

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with both the retailers and the brands up.  M +.55, JWN +1.27, KSS +1.70, DDS +1.36, JCP +.01, WMT -.11, TGT -.31, TJX +.41, RL +2.35, UAA +.15, LULU +3.37, NKE +.71, TPR +.64, CPRI +.41, and XRT $43.92 +.50 (1.15%).

 

 

FAANG and big cap tech were HIGHER with GOOGL – 10.27, AMZN +14.23, AAPL -1.89, NFLX +5.29, NVDA -3.54, BABA +2.71, TSLA -3.17, BIDU +.15, IBM +.18, BOX unchanged, CAT+1.62, BA +8.23, and the XLE $73.00 -.32 (.44%).

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -.41, JPM -.70, BAC -.16, PNC unchanged, C -.52, AIG -.17, and XLF $25.23 -.11 (.43%)

 

OIL, $58.82 - .22 Today was a generally quiet day with the oil in a range of $58.17 (a slightly lower low) and a high of $59.35 closing pretty much in the middle.  This does nothing to dissuade my bullish stand.  We are higher tonight by $ .54 putting us just over the todays high.  The stocks were mixed but XLE CLOSED $65.50 +.03 (.05%).

 

 

METALS, $1,322 +10.30 As mentioned in my last Daily Note on Thursday I’m a little concerned that we are working our way into a “bear flag” so I may just close this out before the weekend.  So, I took the gains on the second half of our position and today, as we approached the top of that Bear Flag we bought two “half positions” in the GLD 123 puts in equal amounts at $ .53 and $ .44, for an average price $ .485.  While The gold closed near the high of the day, we are down $2.00.  The options close $ .44.

 

The economic stimulus from China has done nothing to help the Copper, it had a downdraft that we had some follow-thru from the decline from last week’s high just under $2.97. to $2.83, putting Copper in a bearish position.  It will need either some major good news that and turn it back up, but I feel like a test of $2.75-80 is more likely.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,895 - 85 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several weeks going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position today @ $4.75 and we closed $4.57 -.22.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold, with today’s high touching $4025, we really need a close over $4,100.  Another issue is the fact that the CBOE has decided that it will not continue to trade Bitcoin any longer.  The reason given was the lack of volume, and it is my opinion that this will actually help our position in GBTC, since it will be one of the few places that traders will be able to participate.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 26th

 

 

AAPL Fails to WOW

 

Today’s market was a see-saw affair starting with a slightly lower open and a decline to the low of the day -130 but after a two hour climb we had made a high of the day +100.  We then declined back to a slightly higher low by about 2:30 when we started a move back up to unchanged and finished +14.61 (.06%), NASDAQ -6.13 (.076%), S&P 500 -.2.35 (.006%), the Russell +6.04 (.48%), and the DJ Transports -13.51 (.09%).  Market internals were not bad after the follow-thru after Friday’s big selloff.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  AAPL failed to really wow the public or the market with their streaming news at midday, although it has been up from $142 to $197 (38.7%) YTD.  This is typical for them, and while Oprah, Jennifer Aniston, and Reese Witherspoon didn’t help much, the deals that they are offering, like the Apple+ News seems an excellent bundle.  NCTY, in a joint venture with Faraday & Future to build, market and distribute electric cars in China traded up to $3.83 on the news but was overcome with profit taking and finished $2.01 -.51 (20%) after being up $1.31 (52%).  TSLA was lower on fears that it will have cash-flow problems as it approaches a $1billion payment that it needs to make on its convertible bonds since the stock is not high enough to be profitably converted.  And NKE had kind of a tough start of the day with follow-thru from Friday’s sell-off of $5.82 (6.6%) and trading down today on the news that celebrity lawyer Michael Avenatti, was going to have a press conference tomorrow where he was going to “expose a high school violation” including information that NKE had broken the law relating to “secret payments.”  The stock sold off to $80.89 – 1.40 (1.4%).  That was at 12:15, but at 12:30 the news hit that Mr. Avenatti had been arrested on conspiracy and extortion charges in NYC, and charges also pending in LA…and NKE managed an immediate rally and a close up on the day.

 

The Bio / Pharma home run of the day was AXSM, a stock that closed the year $2.82 +.64 (29%) but down from $15.74 in February 2016, broke to the upside on 1/7 to $6.87 +4.24 (161%), and opened today $14.10 closing within pennies from its high and +3.34 (25.69%).  The company recently has had several upgrades with moves to overweight with targets of $25.  The company has a new depression drug.

 

 

 

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were generally HIGHER, with CELG +.05, BIIB +3.25, ABBV -.25, REGN +3.20, ISRG +1.46, MYL -.37, TEVA -.42, VRTX +2.32, BCH +.01, INCY +.68, ICPT -.51 and IBB $108.41 +.24 (.22%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were HIGHER with TLRY +.84, CGC unchanged, CRON +1.47, GWPH -3.81, ACB +.21, PYX -1.30 (5.03%), APHA +.13, NBEV +.19, ACRGF +.75, and $37.05 +.22 (.60%).

 

 

DEFENSE   were HIGHER with LMT + .49, RTN +.56, NOC -1.38, GD +.55, BWXT +.22, TXT -.09, UTX +.25 and ITA $195.68 +1.40 (.72%).

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with both the retailers and the brands up.  M +.55, JWN +1.27, KSS +1.70, DDS +1.36, JCP +.01, WMT -.11, TGT -.31, TJX +.41, RL +2.35, UAA +.15, LULU +3.37, NKE +.71, TPR +.64, CPRI +.41, and XRT $43.92 +.50 (1.15%).

 

 

FAANG and big cap tech were HIGHER with GOOGL – 10.27, AMZN +14.23, AAPL -1.89, NFLX +5.29, NVDA -3.54, BABA +2.71, TSLA -3.17, BIDU +.15, IBM +.18, BOX unchanged, CAT+1.62, BA +8.23, and the XLE $73.00 -.32 (.44%).

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -.41, JPM -.70, BAC -.16, PNC unchanged, C -.52, AIG -.17, and XLF $25.23 -.11 (.43%)

 

OIL, $58.82 - .22 Today was a generally quiet day with the oil in a range of $58.17 (a slightly lower low) and a high of $59.35 closing pretty much in the middle.  This does nothing to dissuade my bullish stand.  We are higher tonight by $ .54 putting us just over the todays high.  The stocks were mixed but XLE CLOSED $65.50 +.03 (.05%).

 

 

METALS, $1,322 +10.30 As mentioned in my last Daily Note on Thursday I’m a little concerned that we are working our way into a “bear flag” so I may just close this out before the weekend.  So, I took the gains on the second half of our position and today, as we approached the top of that Bear Flag we bought two “half positions” in the GLD 123 puts in equal amounts at $ .53 and $ .44, for an average price $ .485.  While The gold closed near the high of the day, we are down $2.00.  The options close $ .44.

 

The economic stimulus from China has done nothing to help the Copper, it had a downdraft that we had some follow-thru from the decline from last week’s high just under $2.97. to $2.83, putting Copper in a bearish position.  It will need either some major good news that and turn it back up, but I feel like a test of $2.75-80 is more likely.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,895 - 85 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several weeks going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position today @ $4.75 and we closed $4.57 -.22.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold, with today’s high touching $4025, we really need a close over $4,100.  Another issue is the fact that the CBOE has decided that it will not continue to trade Bitcoin any longer.  The reason given was the lack of volume, and it is my opinion that this will actually help our position in GBTC, since it will be one of the few places that traders will be able to participate.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 26th

 

 

AAPL Fails to WOW

 

Today’s market was a seesaw affair starting with a slightly lower open and a decline to the low of the day -130 but after a two hour climb we had made a high of the day +100.  We then declined back to a slightly higher low by about 2:30 when we started a move back up to unchanged and finished +14.61 (.06%), NASDAQ -6.13 (.076%), S&P 500 -.2.35 (.006%), the Russell +6.04 (.48%), and the DJ Transports -13.51 (.09%).  Market internals were not bad after the follow-thru after Friday’s big selloff.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  AAPL failed to really wow the public or the market with their streaming news at midday, although it has been up from $142 to $197 (38.7%) YTD.  This is typical for them, and while Oprah, Jennifer Aniston, and Reese Witherspoon didn’t help much, the deals that they are offering, like the Apple+ News seems an excellent bundle.  NCTY, in a joint venture with Faraday & Future to build, market and distribute electric cars in China traded up to $3.83 on the news but was overcome with profit taking and finished $2.01 -.51 (20%) after being up $1.31 (52%).  TSLA was lower on fears that it will have cash-flow problems as it approaches a $1billion payment that it needs to make on its convertible bonds since the stock is not high enough to be profitably converted.  And NKE had kind of a tough start of the day with follow-thru from Friday’s sell-off of $5.82 (6.6%) and trading down today on the news that celebrity lawyer Michael Avenatti, was going to have a press conference tomorrow where he was going to “expose a high school violation” including information that NKE had broken the law relating to “secret payments.”  The stock sold off to $80.89 – 1.40 (1.4%).  That was at 12:15, but at 12:30 the news hit that Mr. Avenatti had been arrested on conspiracy and extortion charges in NYC, and charges also pending in LA…and NKE managed an immediate rally and a close up on the day.

 

The Bio / Pharma home run of the day was AXSM, a stock that closed the year $2.82 +.64 (29%) but down from $15.74 in February 2016, broke to the upside on 1/7 to $6.87 +4.24 (161%), and opened today $14.10 closing within pennies from its high and +3.34 (25.69%).  The company recently has had several upgrades with moves to overweight with targets of $25.  The company has a new depression drug.

 

 

 

 

 

 

BIO/PHARMA:  stocks were generally HIGHER, with CELG +.05, BIIB +3.25, ABBV -.25, REGN +3.20, ISRG +1.46, MYL -.37, TEVA -.42, VRTX +2.32, BCH +.01, INCY +.68, ICPT -.51 and IBB $108.41 +.24 (.22%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were HIGHER with TLRY +.84, CGC unchanged, CRON +1.47, GWPH -3.81, ACB +.21, PYX -1.30 (5.03%), APHA +.13, NBEV +.19, ACRGF +.75, and $37.05 +.22 (.60%).

 

 

DEFENSE   were HIGHER with LMT + .49, RTN +.56, NOC -1.38, GD +.55, BWXT +.22, TXT -.09, UTX +.25 and ITA $195.68 +1.40 (.72%).

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with both the retailers and the brands up.  M +.55, JWN +1.27, KSS +1.70, DDS +1.36, JCP +.01, WMT -.11, TGT -.31, TJX +.41, RL +2.35, UAA +.15, LULU +3.37, NKE +.71, TPR +.64, CPRI +.41, and XRT $43.92 +.50 (1.15%).

 

 

FAANG and big cap tech were HIGHER with GOOGL – 10.27, AMZN +14.23, AAPL -1.89, NFLX +5.29, NVDA -3.54, BABA +2.71, TSLA -3.17, BIDU +.15, IBM +.18, BOX unchanged, CAT+1.62, BA +8.23, and the XLE $73.00 -.32 (.44%).

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -.41, JPM -.70, BAC -.16, PNC unchanged, C -.52, AIG -.17, and XLF $25.23 -.11 (.43%)

 

OIL, $58.82 - .22 Today was a generally quiet day with the oil in a range of $58.17 (a slightly lower low) and a high of $59.35 closing pretty much in the middle.  This does nothing to dissuade my bullish stand.  We are higher tonight by $ .54 putting us just over the today’s high.  The stocks were mixed but XLE CLOSED $65.50 +.03 (.05%).

 

 

METALS, $1,322 +10.30 As mentioned in my last Daily Note on Thursday I’m a little concerned that we are working our way into a “bear flag” so I may just close this out before the weekend.  So, I took the gains on the second half of our position and today, as we approached the top of that Bear Flag we bought two “half positions” in the GLD 123 puts in equal amounts at $ .53 and $ .44, for an average price $ .485.  While The gold closed near the high of the day, we are down $2.00.  The options close $ .44.

 

The economic stimulus from China has done nothing to help the Copper, it had a downdraft that we had some follow-thru from the decline from last week’s high just under $2.97. to $2.83, putting Copper in a bearish position.  It will need either some major good news that and turn it back up, but I feel like a test of $2.75-80 is more likely.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,895 - 85 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several weeks going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position today @ $4.75 and we closed $4.57 -.22.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold, with today’s high touching $4025, we really need a close over $4,100.  Another issue is the fact that the CBOE has decided that it will not continue to trade Bitcoin any longer.  The reason given was the lack of volume, and it is my opinion that this will actually help our position in GBTC, since it will be one of the few places that traders will be able to participate.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

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After the close 3/20/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 21st

 

FED Day

Gold, Oil, & Bonds in the Highlight

Paying for Growth

 

Today’s market was lower from the start and by 12:45 we had made the low of the day at 25,670 – 231 and moved sideways until the Fed announcement and the beginning of the press conference for Chairman Powell.  With no rate hikes on tap for the year, we quickly moved back to the high of the day at +30, before faltering and moving lower into the close at – 141.71 (.55%), with the NASDAQ +5.02 (.06%), S&P 500 -8.34 (.29%), the Russell, weak all day -11.83 (.76%) and the DJ Transportations, weakest of all – 134.06 (1.30%).  The majority of the weakness shifted away from BA and back over to GS (46 DPs) and UNH (45 DPs).  While I don’t hear anyone talking about it UNH has been rolling over for 6 months and has been in a trading range of $275 to $230 but looks like it could easily put on a leg lower.  Market internals were negative all day with NYSE volume and A/D both 4:3 lower and NASDAQ slightly worse at 5:3 lower on both.  A look at the sector that performed the best tells you all of what you need to know about this market, the big money is paying for GROWTH, and the FAANG names were where they went.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  Earnings were a major influence today with better than expected numbers for GIS which traded up to $49.50 before closing $48.29 + 1.05 (2.22%).   Tencent Music (TME) was downgraded to neutral from outperform on the heels of its first earnings since its IPO in December.  The stock had moved from a low of $11.81 to trade $19.97 yesterday but opened today $17.27 and closed $16.66 -1.91 (10.29%).  SMAR, also public only since April has traded from its low of $18.60 to close today at a new all-time high of $45.69 +2.25 (5.18%) on a smaller than expected loss and good revenues.  NOMD priced a public offering @ $20, slightly lower than the close yesterday and after trading $19.50, it finished on the high of the day @ $20.65 -.15 (.72%).

 

 

NERVO (NVRO), which has had several new directors and a new president and CEO was upgraded by BMO, Wells Fargo, and B of A with a price objective of $70.  The company had suspended its 2019 guidance after the CEO transition.  The stock, which sold off from $94 a year ago to trade $34.75 in December opened $57.49, hit $62.26 and closed $60.74 +15.97 (35.67%).

 

After the close we had numbers from WSM beat and after closing $56.85 traded to $65.34 and is $58.75 +1.90.  Also reporting was MU, beating lowered expectations and didn’t really react until the conference call.  Citing the movement through the supply imbalances and margins of 50%, in line with expectations the stock rallied to trade just over $42.24 + $2.17 (5.4%).  Guess (GES) missed by $ .05 and had declining revenues while European and Asian markets increased.  While they issued guidance in-line with expectations the stock traded down to $18.75 – 3.22 (14.2%).

 

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA was MIXED, with CELG -.70, BIIB -3.17, ABBV -.23, REGN -1.49, ISRG +6.64, MYL +.09, TEVA -.14, BCH +.13, INCY +.64, ICPT +1.12 and IBB $113.18 -.67 (.59%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were MIXED to LOWER with TLRY +.21, CGC +.84, CRON -.23, GWPH +2.29, ACB -.24, PYX -.52, NBEV -.16, APHA -.32, ACRGF +1.15, and MJ $38.36 -.38 (.98%).

 

 

DEFENSE   were LOWER with LMT – .62, RTN -.15, NOC -.55, GD -2.23, BWXT -.62, TXT -.62, UTX -1.20 and ITA $197.00 -1.31 (.66%).

 

 

RETAIL was LOWER with the retailers and the brands lower.  M -.35, JWN -1.11, KSS -.37, DDS -.35, JCP -.05, WMT -1.35, TGT -1.21, TJX +.32, RL -3.28, UAA -.51, LULU -.64, NKE -.09, TPR -1.08, CPRI -1.16, and XRT $44.13 -.40 (.90%).

 

 

FAANG and big cap tech were HIGHER with GOOGL +21.04, AMZN +37.15, AAPL +1.87, FB +4.03, NFLX +17.72 (4.94%), NVDA -.31, TSLA +6.52 (2.44%), BABA -.79, BIDU -.83, IBM -.99, BOX -.49, CAT -1.34, BA +1.77, and XLK $73.25 -.20 (.27%).  As I mentioned above, the rush to buy growth favors this group, and on a mixed to lower day the outperformance is evident.

 

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER across the board. This is exactly what I have been talking about with this group failing to take a leadership position.  I can only say that this sector has been a fairly constant disappointment, and today is an example.  The lack of impetus for the Fed to raise rates anytime soon, and the use of the reserve rate giving the banks a riskless reason to NOT make loans, you can see why it will not perform.  The XLF was $26.13 - .56 (2.1%).

 

 

OIL, $60.13 +.94 Since this market put in its bottom in late December we have had pretty much an orderly move higher with higher lows and higher highs sometimes called a “running correction.”  The highest close (on the way down from $76) was $59.93, and we broke that today.  There are only 2 closes between here and $62.00. The whole list I follow was higher with a few exceptions, but those were only down pennies, and XLE was $66.82 +.58 (.88%).

 

 

METALS, $1,301.70 -4.80 There is something wrong with the reporting service that I use, since I know the Gold rallied after the Fed news, but I will use it anyway.  Right now it is showing the last price of $1,315.50 +13.80.  As mentioned we came out of a “Bull Flag” and I was looking for $1,350-60 and the high last Wednesday was $1349.80 and we finished our liquidation vs. $1347.  We went back in vs. $1,293 with the GLD 3/122 calls and sold half on the 100% Up Rule and sold the balance to roll forward to the April 124 calls @ $ .89. They closed $ 1.51, and we sold half today @ $1.56.  

 

The economic news from China has added to an advance here toward $3.00.  Last week’s move was pretty dramatic moving to just over $2.97.  Today’s quiet day and the close of $2.9210 -.002 was a decent performance, but IF we are going higher, we’ll need a close over $2.9570.  Remember that this commodity traded from a contract high over $3.31 in June to make a new contract low in just 5 weeks.  When it gets volatile, it really moves.

 

BITCOIN closed $4,010 +15 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several weeks going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position today @ $4.75 and we closed $4.92 -.07 after trading as high as $5.15.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold, with today’s high touching $4025, we really need a close over $4,100.  Another issue is the fact that the CBOE has decided that it will not continue to trade Bitcoin any longer.  The reason given was the lack of volume, and it is my opinion that this will actually help our position in GBTC, since it will be one of the few places that traders will be able to participate.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

 

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After the close 3/19/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 20th

 

FEDEX Misses

A Sloppy Day

 

Today’s market was higher from the open and worked its way higher to make the high around 12:15 @ $26,084 + 170 before turning down on some negative comments on trade to +20 before another rally to a lower high and another decline back to unchanged.  This type of action is typical for a market that is overbought and just looking for a reason to pull back a bit.  From 3:00 to 3:45we fell to -100 and at the bell we were -26.72 (.10%). Nasdaq +9.46 (.12%), S&P 500 -.37 (.01%), the Russell -8.96 (.57%) and the DJ Transports +22.60 (.22%).  Market internals were mixed with the NYSE negative by 4:3 volume and 3:2 A/D while NASDAQ volume was positive 5:3 but A/D 13:17 down.  New highs were 132 on NYSE and 92 NASDAQ.

 

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  Several of the names from last night’s continued their march higher.  STNE had a conference call this afternoon to report a beat on top and bottom lines with a gain of 113.6 in revenues.  The company is a provider financial technology solutions for merchants to conduct commerce “seamlessly” over multiple channels.  Not the first one to do this but clearly the market liked what it heard as the stock, an IPO last fall and fell from a high of $32.50 to $16.14 Xmas eve had climbed back to close $34.60 +2.09 was trading around $38 last night but continued higher with an open at $42.61 and traded as high as $43.91 and finished $40.97 (18.41%).

 

Another name that held up well was one of the “Home-run of the Day,” DERM, with its positive results in a mid-stage trial of its treatment for “moderate to severe atopic dermatitis” sent the stock up 80% premarket and after trading as high as $14.91 finished the day $12.61 +5.77 (84.36%).  They also announced an offering of $100 million in common shares late in the day.  Normally we would see a decline on that offering news, but after an unchanged open and a small selloff it worked its way up to $14.38, closing $14.13 +1.52 (12.05%).

 

As expected (at least here) FDX missed and was punished, and after closing $181.41 -.99 it missed even its lowered expectations and guidance, falling to $171.06 -10.35 (5.71%).

 

On the downside we had DSW, seller of shoes, surprised investors with a loss and gave guidance below expectations.  The company will also be making its own brands and changing its name to Designer Brands as a way to increase margins.  The stock which traded $30.73 on 3/1 has fallen in 10 of the last 11 days and opened today $23.11 and stayed in a $2 range and finished $22.09 -3.27 (12.89%).

 

 

BIO / PHARMA was MIXED, with CELG +1.08, BIIB -1.88, ABBV +.17, REGN -.61, MYL +.44, TEVA +.24, VRTX -5.72 (3.05%), BCH -.46, INCY +.05, ICPT -1.59, and IBB $113.85 -.07 (.06%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were MIXED with TLRY – 2.72, CGC +.41, CRON -.29, GWPH -.50, ACB +.08, PYX -.64, APHA +.08, NBEV +.16, ACRGF -1.39 (6.54%), and MJ $38.74 +.40 (1.04%).

 

 

DEFENSE   were LOWER with LMT – 1.04, RTN -.06, NOC -3.99, GD -.95, BWXT -.40, TXT -.50, UTX -.89 and ITA $198.89 -.39 (.20%).  Any suggestions for others would be appreciated.

 

 

RETAIL was MIXED with the retailer higher and the brands lower.  M -.05, JWN +.37, KSS +.41, DDS -.11, JCP +.02, WMT +.19, TGT +.43, TJX -.13, RL +.60, UAA -.20, LULU -.08, NKE -.32, TPR -.01, CPRI -.52 and XRT $44.53 -.18 (.40%).  

 

 

FAANG and big cap tech were HIGHER with GOOGL +13.41, AMZN +17.10, AAPL -2.02, FB +.87, NVDA +5.95 (3.53%), TSLA -1.34, BABA +.02, BIDU -1.04, IBM +.05, BOX -.05, CAT -.05, BA +.14 and XLK $73.45 +.15 (.20%).

 

 

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER with most up early and giving it up as soon as the market gave up early gains.  This is exactly what I have been talking about with this group failing to take a leadership position.  I can only say that this sector has been a fairly constant disappointment, and today is an example.  It seems like the rest of the market has dragged it up.  XLF was $26.69 -.21 (.78%).

 

 

OIL, $59.29 -.09 Since this market put in its bottom in late December we have had pretty much an orderly move higher with higher lows and higher highs sometimes called a “running correction.”  The highest close (on the way down from $76) was $59.93.  The whole list I follow was lower with the market.  XLE was $66.24 -.18 (.27%).

METALS, $1,306.50 +5.00 As mentioned we came out of a “Bull Flag” and I was looking for $1,350-60 and the high last Wednesday was $1349.80 and we finished our liquidation vs. $1347.  We went back in vs. $1,293 with the GLD 3/122 calls and sold half on the 100% Up Rule and sold the balance to roll forward to the April 124 calls @ $ .89. They closed $ 1.15.

 

The economic news from China has added to an advance here toward $3.00.  Last week’s move was pretty dramatic moving to just over $2.97.  Today’s quiet day and the close of $2.9230 + .014 was a decent performance, but IF we are going higher, we’ll need a close over $2.9570.  Remember that this commodity traded from a contract high over $3.31 in June to make a new contract low in just 5 weeks.  When it gets volatile, it really moves.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,995 +35 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several weeks going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position today @ $4.75 and we closed $4.99 +.11 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold, with today’s high touching $4025, we really need a close over $4,100.  Another issue is the fact that the CBOE has decided that it will not continue to trade Bitcoin any longer.  The reason given was the lack of volume, and it is my opinion that this will actually help our position in GBTC, since it will be one of the few places that traders will be able to participate.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

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After the close 3/18/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 19th

 

BA Still Troubled

Energy and Financials Gain

 

For a market that has gained so much recently today was a snooze.  The DJIA continued its move higher even with the drag placed on it from BA and DIS.  The balance was the combination of GS, AAPL, and UNH.  DJIA was + 65.23 (.25%), NASDAQ +25.95 (.34%), S&P 500 +10.46 (.37, the Russell +10.39 (.67%) and DJ Transports +104.24 (1.01%).  Market internals were pretty solid with NYSE volume 2.5:1 and A/D2:1 and NASDAQ slightly lower with 1.8:1 and 3:2 respectively.  New highs were about even with NYSE 108 and NASDAQ 105.  The DJIA was 2:1. The US$ was a bit weaker on the perception that the Fed has turned dovish based on manufacturing numbers last week.  The Fed meets again tomorrow and Wednesday with the announcement and press conference Wednesday afternoon.

 

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  BA suffered another setback with the news over the weekend that there were similarities between the two crashes, including one piece of physical evidence discovered late last week, but making the implications clearer from the experts.   There was also some talk from a Bank of America analyst that FedEx should cancel some of its BA 737 orders in favor of additional share buybacks.  This is exactly the trouble with these guys who favor financial engineering over capex investment.  Never mind the fact that by the time they get things settled, FDX would have to move back to the end of the queue in order to refresh their fleet.  It amazes me how shortsighted some of these guys are.  FDX reports tomorrow, and I have no idea what the expectations are, but with the softness of consumer spending, I’d be surprised if they had a runaway to the upside.  As most of you already know, I don’t ever make a trade based on an earnings report, in fact I shy away from them like the plague. For calendar year 2018 FDX went from $275 to $150, so a buyback programs might have helped EPS, but what a waste of corporate funds it would have been.  Ask the shareholders at GE how their buyback worked.

 

There was plenty of news preopen with an upgrade of EW by B. of A. to a new price objective of $215 from $190 and the stock traded as high as $197.86 and finished the day $190.89 +11.14 (6.20%).  Worldpay (WP) and FIS announced a merger that took WP as high as $112 and closed $108.51 +9.83 (9.96%) and FIS higher initially trading up to $112 and finishing $108.12 - .76 (.70%).  

 

Lumber Liquidators (LL) beat on the topline but missed on revenues and had weak same store sales and agreed to pay $33 million in fines on the excessive formaldehyde in their Chinese sourced flooring.  This was on top of the class action settlement last year of $36 million. They also lost their CFO who is leaving next month.  The stock, which peaked around $120 before the Chinese problem and traded as high as $12.18 just last week traded as low as $8.81 but finished the day a bit better at $9.82 -.35 (3.44%).  SYNA was downgraded to hold from buy on the announcement that the CEO is leaving and the fact that the company is losing market share to new competitor Novatek who gained a 50% over the last year on the panel technology for edge to edge displays for smartphones, and a drop in share from 60% to 40% for their chip-on-film product.  The stock which was $55 last year at this time opened $38.55 and continued lower to finish $33.46 -9.77 (22.6%).

 

STNE had a conference call this afternoon to report a beat on top and bottom lines with a gain of 113.6 in revenues.  The company is a provider financial technology solutions for merchants to conduct commerce “seamlessly” over multiple channels.  Not the first one to do this but clearly the market liked what it heard as the stock, an IPO last fall and fell from a high of $32.50 to $16.14 Xmas eve had climbed back to close $34.60 +2.09 is now trading $39.69 +5.09, and additional 12.6%.

 

TLRY also reported after the close and while their loss widened, they beat solidly on revenues.  The initial reaction was a drop from the close of $72.24 to 67.10 and within minutes reversed and traded $76.75 and is currently $74 +1.78 (2.47%).  So, as the old joke goes, “We only lose a little on each sale, but we make up for it in volume.”

 

So, the “Home-run of the Day” honors are split today with both companies having good Trials on their new drugs.  DERM, the runner-up, with its positive results in a mid-stage trial of its treatment for “moderate to severe atopic dermatitis” sent the stock up 80% premarket and after trading as high as $14.91 finished the day $12.61 +5.77 (84.36%).  They also announced an offering of $100 million in common shares late in the day.  The big winner was DARE Bioscience, DARE with an adjusted high of $108 (a 1:10 reverse in July 2017) has been trading around $ .70 – 1.10 reported “positive findings” of their treatment of VVA, a result of menopause.  The stock closed yesterday $ .92 opened $2.71, traded $3.25 and finished the day $2.10 +1.18 (128.26%).

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA was MIXED, with CELG _.34, BIIB -4.22, ABBV -.69, REGN -6.87 (1.66%), ISRG +1.79, MYL +.09, TEVA +.14, VRTX -.61, BCH +.28 (.91%), INCY +.82, ICPT +.38, and IBB $113.92 -.28 (.25%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were HIGHER with TLRY (see above), CGC -.09, CRON +.80, GWPH -.71, ACB +.40 (4.27%), PYX +1.29 (4.39%), APHA +.73 (7.6%), NBEV +.41 (7.96%), ACRGF +2.13 (11.14%), and MJ $38.64 +1.29 (3.45%).

 

 

DEFENSE   were HIGHER, I’m adding this sector based on the growing budget for defense.  I will follow LMT +1.49 (.50%), RTN +2.28 (1.28%), NOC +3.68 (1.36%), GD +1.88 (1.11%), BWXT +1.00 (2.02%), TXT+.75 (1.45%), UTX +.98 (.78%), and ITA (US Aerospace and Defense ETF) $199.28 +1.36 (.69%).  Any suggestions for others would be appreciated.

 

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with M + .21, JWN +.45, KSS +1.17, DDS + .57, JCP unch., WMT +1.24, TGT +1.23, TJX +.17, and the brands followed with RL +3.43 (2.84%), UAA +15, LULU +2.54 (1.79%), NKE +.84, TPR +.74, CPRI +1.15, and XRT $44.71 +.30 (.68%).

 

 

 

FAANG and big cap tech were MIXED with GOOGL -1.75, AMZN +32.97 (1.93%), AAPL +2.18, FB -5.27 (3.18%), NFLX +2.54, NVDA -.51, TSLA -6.38 (2.32%), BABA +.94, BIDU +.76, IBM +.57, BOX -.07, CAT +1.82, BA -7.48 (1.97%) and XLK $73.30 +.31 (.42%).

 

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +4.49 (2.26%), JPM +.98, BAC +.79, MS +.70, C +.93, PNC +2.02, AIG +.24 and XLF $27 +.37 (1.39%).  I can only say that this sector has been a fairly constant disappointment, but today is the first time in quite a while that everyone was higher.  It may just be possible that it has turned, or it may be that the rest of the market has finally dragged it up.  Time will tell.

 

 

OIL, $59.07 + .57 Since this market put in its bottom in late December we have had pretty much an orderly move higher with higher lows and higher highs sometimes called a “running correction.”  However, with today’s close well over the highs from the last several weeks sets us up to move to $60.  The highest close (on the way down from $76) was $59.93.  The whole list I follow were higher with CVX +.68, APC +.80, BP +.44, COP +.02, APA +.56, PSX +.20, MPC +1.74, MRO +.13, RIG +.48 (5.33%), OAS +.03, HES +.88, NE + .21 (7.27%), OXY +1.63 (2.49%), XOM +.95, VLO +1.77 (2.08%) and XLE $66.49 +.98 (1.5%).

 

METALS, $1,301.50 -1.40 As mentioned we came out of a “Bull Flag” and I was looking for $1,350-60 and the high last Wednesday was $1349.80 and we finished our liquidation vs. $1347.  We went back in vs. $1,293 with the GLD 3/122 calls and sold half on the 100% Up Rule and sold the balance to roll forward to the April 124 calls @ $ .89. They closed $ 1.02.

 

The economic news from China has added to an advance here toward $3.00.  Last week’s move was pretty dramatic moving to just over $2.97.  Today’s quiet day and the close of $2.9090 +.003 was a decent performance, but IF we are going higher, we’ll need a close over $2.9570.  Remember that this commodity traded from a contract high over $3.31 in June to make a new contract low in just 5 weeks.  When it gets volatile, it really moves.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,960 +60 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several weeks going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We added to that position today @ $4.75 and we closed $4.88 +.22 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold, with today’s high touching $4025, we really need a close over $4,100.  It’s getting not so boring finally..

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

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SORRY, THERE IS NO DAILY NOTE TONIGHT

BE BACK ON MONDAY

After the close 3/13/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 14th

 

BA Troubles (over?)

Solid Energy Sector

And Gold

 

Today’s market was pretty much flat to higher at the open on tame inflation data.  BA was lower premarket and some of the transportation “experts” had some positive comments and just before the open it reversed from a low of $368 to open $378.42 and gave the DJIA some relief from the last several days of sharp declines built into the DJ futures.  We rallied all day with the high +220 or so, finishing +148.23 (.58%), NASDAQ +52.38 (.69%), S&P 500 +19.40 (.69%), the Russell +6.05 (.39%), and the DJ Transports recovering +105.59 (1.05%).  Market internals were stronger on NYSE with volume 3.2:1 and A/D 2.4:1 while NASDAQ was a bit subdued at 1.5:1 and 3:2 respectively.  NYSE new highs outnumbered NASDAQ 180 to 85.  DJIA numbers were also better with gains outnumbering losses 28:2. Only HD -10 and DIS -4.50 DPs were lower.  UNH was the big winner +41.

 

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  BA suffered another defeat when Canada also suspended the 737 MAX 8 from service and flying in their airspace.  This left only the US and the FAA the only holdouts to keep them flying. That lasted until 2:30 when Mr. Trump made the pronouncement that we too were grounding the planes.  BA was trading $375 and immediately fell to $363.33 -12 (a lower low than Monday) before recovering and closing $377.14 +1.73.  Is it over?  It might be, with runaway volume of over 35 million per day (avg. is 5 million) and a well-defined series of lows to limit risk, I would think that unless something unheard of happens, the bottom is in.

 

Some early good news for ACB and the cannabis stocks in general, Nelson Peltz has signed on to ACB as a “strategic partner,” giving the someone who has been very successful in growing businesses across many industries, especially those where direct engagement with the buying public has been the issue.  These include his directorship at P&G, Heinz, Arby’s, Mondelez, and Snapple, as well as several industrial giants.  The stock came out of relative obscurity in late 2017, trading at $2.00, moving to $10, followed by a wide trading range of $5 to $11.  Starting this year around $5, it had traded back to $8, opening today $8.63 + .67 (8.4%) and moving up to $9.25 on the news. The close was $9.07 +1.11 (13.94%).

 

PDD, a Chinese e-commerce platform reported a wider than expected loss for Q4 even with better than expected revenue growth.  The company was an IPO in July 2018 @ $19 opened $26.50 and like most Chinese e-commerce companies gyrated pretty widely, moving down to $16, up to $30 and back within a few weeks moving back towards the highs, closing yesterday $30.43 but opening $27.29 – 3.14 (10.3%) before falling to $24.70 and closing $25.12 -5.31 (17.45%).

 

In the upgrade/downgrade arena we had Bernstein upgraded CVS (down from $82 in December) to a low just over $52 this week, and closed the day $56.57 +1.92 (3.51%).    ROKU was on the other side of the page with Loop Capital downgrading this Wall Street cord-cutting darling which has risen from its Xmas eve low of $26.30 to $74.35 Monday before opening today at $67.58 -3.14 (4.4%) and continuing lower to $60.13 and closing $60.74 - 9.98 (14.1%).

 

After the close we had TLRD (Joseph A. Bank / Men’s Wearhouse) report poor numbers and after closing $$11.69 -.31 it went lower to $9.54 – 2.15 (22.53%).  This one has never recovered from the merger trading as high as $66 in 2016 and $34.95 this time last year.  Another merger that hasn’t paid off yet is CLDR, merged with HortonWorks and the company reported tonight, citing integration cost and issues for its miss and down from $20 in October it fell in extended hours to $12.87 – 1.84 (12.58%).

 

And the Bio/Pharma “home run” of the day was AKTX, whose new orphan drug for HSCT-TMA was well received by the FDA in a pre-IND filing.  This is for a malady that has an 80% fatality rate.  The stock, another 1:10 “reverse” has spent the last year between $1.50 -$2.50 and opened $2.10, traded as high as $6.14 closing $5.90 +4.08 (224.18%).

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA was HIGHER, with REGN the only loser -8.85 (2.12%) with no negative news to blame, CELG +1.70, BIIB +7.84 (2.51%), ABBV +.17, ISRG +7.03, MYL +.10, TEVA +.52 (3.32%), INCY +.16, ICPT +2.25, and IBB $113.30 +1.46 (1.31%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were LOWER with the exception of ACB (see above) TLRY -.48, CGC -.61, CRON -.20, GWPH -1.64, PYX +.38, APHA -.01, NBEV -.05, and MJ $37.00 +.43 (1.18%%%%%

 

 

RETAIL was MOSTLY HIGHER with M + .32, NJWN +.04, KSS -1.11, DDS -1.05, JCP +.01, WMT +.83, TGT +1.52, TJX +.67, RL -1.17, UAA +.25, LULU -.38, NKE +.50, TPR +.08, CPRI +.85 and XRT $45.36 +.13 (.29%).

 

 

FAANG and big cap tech were HIGHER with FB the only exception -1.20.  GOOGL +5.66, AMZN +17.40, AAPL +1.59, NFLX +5.33, NVDA +5.33, TSLA +6.38 (3.93%), BABA +.37, BIDU +1.51, IBM +.42, BOX -.12 and XLK $72.20 +.47 (.66%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +.62, JPM +.45, BAC + .39, MS +.38, C +.85, PNC +1.22, AIG +.74, and XLF $26.55 +.25 (.95%).  I can only say that this sector has been a fairly constant disappointment, moving with the market, but falling back on any overall weakness.  The uncertainty in the interest rate markets has made this group limited upside and disappointing declines.  GS is down from $275 this time last year, JPM has fared only slightly better falling from just under $120 late last year and BAC is down from $33 and has been in a trading range $25-31 for 2 ½ years.

 

 

OIL, $58.26 +1.39 Since this market put in its bottom in late December we have had pretty much an orderly move higher with higher lows and higher highs sometimes called a “running correction.”  However, with today’s close well over the highs from the last several weeks.  This is also the highest close since Oil broke $60 on the downside last November on the way from $76 to $42.50.  $60.00 is probably some supply to work through.  All of the names on my list were higher with several of the bigger names the percentage leaders.  APC +1.04 (2.37%), BP +1.42 (3.34%), COP +1.86 (2.83%), MRO +.42 (2.49%), and the little ones OAS +.20 (3.57%), NE +.06 (2.11%), and XLE $65.98 +.66 (1.01%).

 

METALS, $1,309 +11.40 As mentioned we came out of a “Bull Flag” and I was looking for $1,350-60 and the high last Wednesday was $1349.80 and we finished our liquidation vs. $1347.  We went back in vs. $1,293 with the GLD 3/122 calls and sold half on the 100% Up Rule and sold the balance to roll forward to the April 124 calls @ $ .89. They closed $ 1.50.

 

The economic news from China has added to an advance here toward $3.00.  Last week’s move was pretty dramatic moving to just over $2.97.  Today’s inside day and the close of $2.9355 + .0070 was a decent performance, but IF we are going higher, we’ll need a close over $2.9570.  Remember that this commodity traded from a contract high over $3.31 in June to make a new contract low in just 5 weeks.  When it gets volatile, it really moves.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,845 unchanged After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several days going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.50 -.10 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold.  It’s getting boring again.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

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After the close 3/12/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 13th

 

BA Troubles (still)

Solid Pharma & Oil Sectors

 

Today’s market was a split affair again with BA leading the DJIA lower to close -96.22 (.38%), while NASDAQ was +32.97 (.44%), S&P 500 +8.22 (.30%), the Russell lagged badly managing to just make it into the green finishing +.96 9.06%) while the DJ Transports were – 51.39 (.50%).  One positive influence was a weak CPI number early. Internals were positive but nowhere near yesterday’s numbers with NYSE volume 1.6:1 and A/D just 4:3.  NASDAQ was 2:1 and only 8:7 respectively.  New highs on NYSE were up again at 143 and NASDAQ lagged at only 85.  The DJIA was split 19 winners vs. 11 losers with BA the biggest at -167 DPs and no others down double digits.  On the plus side we only had 3 names up more than 10 with AAPL +14, HD + 11, and UNH +18 DPs.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  So clearly the biggest story was again the crash of the Boeing 737-Max 8 over the weekend.  Today’s news was the grounding of the plane by another 25 countries as well as many countries closing their airspace to the plane.  The only holdout is the US, and the FAA supporting the plane and its manufacturer.  But that doesn’t mean they will continue, as flight attendants coming out in favor of grounding, and there are other groups, like retired safety experts speaking up for grounding.  Personally, I know it’s a problem, but what I don’t know is whether or not it might have been pilot error, or something other than BA producing a faulty plane or an operating software program.  And neither does anyone else.  We still don’t have a documented cause from the Lion Air crash 6 months ago.

 

Stitch Fix (SFIX), mentioned here last night continued its march higher today touching $37.72 before settling at $33.78 +6.80 (25.20%) on a combination of great growth numbers and a fairly sizable short position (30.74%).  BPTH, also mentioned here for the last 5 days had what I would call a major (although a short-term) blow-off this morning in premarket trading.  After closing $32.44 +11.44 Monday it traded as high as $48 pre-market only to fall back to open $30.73 and trade down to $28.15, and then move higher to close $35.13 +2.69 (8.3%).  Even though the high does not exist on most charts (which only count actual “market hours”), there were still trades up in the high 40’s and they will provide “overhead resistance.”  BTW, while not as extreme as SFIX, the short position of 13% in this name is still more than an average stock.

 

On the earnings front, DKS disappointed, blaming Under Armour sales and the removal of gun sales at 125 of their stores.  Same store sales were -3.7% and the stock took it on the chin trading down from Monday’s close of $38.89 to open $35.54 and continue lower to $34.10 and closing $34.61 – 4.28 (11.01%).

 

MOMO, the Chinese social media company reported excellent results beating on all important metrics with both revenues and bottom line as well as MAU (monthly active users) growth and strong guidance going forward.  The IPO was $13.50 on December 2014 and traded between a low of $6.72 in 2/2016 and has moved steadily to a peak of $54.24 in 6/2018 and came back down to trade $22.85 in January.  The stock closed $32.55 Monday and opened today $36.10 moving higher to $37.85 before closing $$36.44 +3.89 (11.95%).

 

There were a couple of smaller Bio/Pharma announcements today with AKBA publishing positive Phase 2 data on its Liver induced anemia.  The stock, as high as $31 in 2014 traded as low as $5.20 in January has moved steadily higher closing $7.34 yesterday opened $9.00, traded $9.30 before closing $8.10 +.76 (10.35%).  On the other side of the coin was ZFGN, who had good earnings numbers but also announced that they were dropping their plans to file an IND for a rare metabolic disorder (Prader-Willi syndrome).  The stock, which traded as high as $55.36 in early 2015 and as low as $2.80 in late 2016 had moved back above $12 at year’s end.  It has closed $4.74 Monday but finished the day $2.89 -1.71 (37.17%).

 

 

BIO / PHARMA was HIGHER, with CELG +.44, BIIB +1.26, ABBV +.42, REGN +5.57, ISRG +7.05, MYL +.21, TEVA -.04, VRTX +2.05, BCH -.08, INCY +.73, ICPT +1.72 and IBB $111.86 +.93 (.84%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were HIGHER with the only exception APHA -.18, TLRY +2.75, CGC +.79, CRON +.63, GWPH +2.71, ACB +.06, PYX +1.16 (4.28%), NBEV +.16 and MJ $36.57 +.25 (.69%).

 

 

RETAIL was MIXED with M +.21, JWN +.10, KSS+.15, DDS +1.39, JCP -.01, WMT -.09, TGT -.09, TJX +.24, RL -.61, UAA -.23, LULU +.50, NKE -.22, TPR -.01, CPRI +.86, and XRT $45.23 +.12 (.27%).

 

FAANG and big cap tech were MIXED with GOOGL +19.09, AMZN +1.63, AAPL +2.12, FB -.14, NFLX -2.36, NVDA +2.31, TSLA -8.22 (2.83%), BABA +.45, BIDU +.03, IBM +.57, BOX +.44, and XLK $70.71 +.39 (.55%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were MIXED with GS +.54, JPM -.21, BAC -.02, MS +.10, C +.43, PNC -.85, AIG +.23 and XLF $26.34 +.10 (.38%).  I can only say that this sector has been a fairly constant disappointment, moving with the market, but falling back on any overall weakness.  The uncertainty in the interest rate markets has made this group limited upside and disappointing declines.  GS is down from $275 this time last year, JPM has fared only slightly better falling from just under $120 late last year and BAC is down from $33 and has been in a trading range $25-31 for 2 ½ years.

 

 

OIL, $56.87 +.08 Since this market put in its bottom in late December we have had pretty much an orderly move higher with higher lows and higher highs sometimes called a “running correction.”  The only area where we had a pullback was in early February when we moved from $55.50 back down to the trend line just over $51.25 and started higher again.  We are trading + .30 tonight and that puts us into the area of the tops between $57.55 - $57.81 from last month.  If we can get a close above $57.81 I believe we will trade up over $60 pretty quickly.  All of the names on my list were higher with the 3 biggest winners RIG +.46 (5.33%), OAS +.24 (4.48%), and NE +.17 (6.37%).  XLE finished $65.35 +.45 (.69%).

 

METALS, $1,301.10 +10 As mentioned we came out of a “Bull Flag” and I was looking for $1,350-60 and the high last Wednesday was $1349.80 and we finished our liquidation vs. $1347.  Unfortunately, we bought the uptrend line and got stopped out the same day.  We went back into the gold today using GLD 3/122 calls @ $ .49, and they gapped up the next day and we sold half on the 100% Up Rule with a gap @ $1.12 for a nice gain, and we sold the balance today @ $ .85.  We added some GLD 4/124 calls @ $ .89.  They closed $ 1.15.

 

That economic news from China has added to an advance here toward $3.00.  Last week’s move was pretty dramatic moving to just over $2.97.  Today’s close of $2.9285 + .0275 was a decent performance and may be the signal of the end of the short-term consolidation IF we are going higher.  Remember that this commodity traded from a contract high over $3.31 in June to make a new contract low in just 5 weeks.  When it gets volatile, it really moves.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,845 + 10 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several days going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.60 -.02 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold.  It’s getting boring again.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 3/11/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 12th

 

BA Troubles

FAANG REAWAKENS

BPTH COMES ON AGAIN

 

Today’s market was interesting, to say the least.  The Boeing effect at the open was dramatic with the stock trading down to $370 premarket, but unlike the DJIA, the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell were higher.  After trading $365.55 – 57 (just 360 Dow Points) it turned back up and by 11:00 the losses were cut in half and the DJIA was positive, closing +200.64 (.79%), NASDAQ +149.92 (2.02%), S&P 505 +40.23 (1.47%), the Russell + 26.99 (1.77%), and the DJ Transports finally broke its 11- day decline by closing +196.06 (1.94%).  Market internals were strong with NYSE volume a solid 5:1 and A/D 3.2:1 and NASDAQ 4.6:1 and 3:1 respectively.  There were 113 new highs on NYSE and 68 NASDAQ.  The DJIA was 29:1 with BA the only decliner -152.77, and the biggest gainers AAPL, MMM, and UNH all up about $40 DPs.

 

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  So clearly the biggest story was the crash of another Boeing 737-Max 8 over the weekend.  Both China and Ethiopia, along with Indonesia grounded all of their 737s and BA took it on the chin.  As mentioned above, the stock was down as much as $48 premarket and when it opened it was $371.21 and traded lower to $365.55 – 56.99 (13.5%) but managed a rebound to close $400.01 – 22.53 (5.33%).  The stock is not out of the woods just yet since the NTSB and FAA will now be able to compare what happened and see if there is a clear connection between this crash and the Lion Air crash last October.  If so, there may be more downside to come based on BA legal exposure.  Technically, the close some $55 off the low and right near the high would signal a blow-off bottom, but fundamentally the question remains.

 

PTE, a company that is a biotech that presented it platform late last week at the Dept. of Defense conference and from the look of what the stock has done, I assume it was well received.  The stock, reversed 1:6 in 2016 has risen from $2.61 to a recovery high of $41.22 and then declined back to $11.82 just 3 weeks ago and closed today $16.43 +2.99 (22.25%).  Globus Maritime, Ltd. (GLBS) has little information available except to say that they are a “dry bulk carrier” located in Greece, with 5 ships for transport of things like iron ore and materials world-wide.  They have roughly 3.2 million shares outstanding and the only news I can find is that the stock had been halted for volatility and resumed after trading after the halt last Friday.  The volume Friday was 2.5 million and that was dwarfed today by trading 11.8 million.  Since being reverse 1:4 in late 2016 and then again 1:10 in October 2019 it has traded from a low of $2.88 last Thursday and was $4.44 + 1.12 (33.7%) Friday, today managed to close $8.54 +4.10 (92.34%).  This is getting to be a recurring theme lately with companies that have been reversed and had their outstanding and “float” deeply diminished moving dramatically higher.  This was the same basic story for several names here last week, and I’m working on a scan to find stocks that have been recently reversed.  BPTH was also a reversed name that I wrote about 3 times last week as it moved from $2.85 to touch $73.52 after being halted 14 times in just one day, and back to trade back to $22 and closed today $32.44 +11.44 (54.48%).  There was little information on BPTH, but when it did put out information, it was blockbuster commentary about a Phase 3 trial for its Acute Myeloid Leukemia drug.  As I said last week, this is a dramatic breakthrough, but with limited shares after 2 reverses the move seemed excessive.

 

There was also news in the Chip space as NVDA bought MLNX for cash and there had been rumors and while today’s move to $117.89 +8.51 (7.78%) was okay, it has traded up from $80 over the past 6 weeks.

 

Stitch Fix (SFIX), an IPO in November 2017 @ $15 and hit $18.53 had managed to move as high as $52.44 before coming back to earth, including a one week drop of $17 (40%), hitting $16 at year end blew away all earnings expectations tonight and after closing $26.98 gapped up and is trading $33.95 + 6.97 (26%).

 

Also adding to today’s gains were upgrades for both AAPL and FB.  Both of these names have been lower with AAPL down from $233.47, and FB down from $218 since late last year.  See below.

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA was HIGHER, across the board with CELG +.80, ABBV +.75, BIIB +3.53, REGN +9.41, ISRG +9.19, MYL +.55, TEVA +.04, VRTX +3.26, BCH +.30, INCY +2.05, ICPT +3.91 (3.87%), and IBB $110.93 +2.32 (2.14%).

 

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were HIGHER with the only exception CRON -.85 (3.91%).  TLRY +.10, CGC +.65, GWPH +6.13 (3.76%), ACB +.22, PYX +2.34 (9.46%), APHA +.20, NBEV +.25, and MJ $36.32 +.64 (1.79%).

 

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with only “terminal” SHLDQ $ .634 -.21345 (25.19%).  I still can’t understand why in a booming market anyone would bother with a company in bankruptcy that will probably strip out all value for common shareholders.  The rest of the list was M +.54, JNW +.45, KSS +1.78, DDS +1.72, JCP +.16 (9.76%), WMT +.89, TGT +.51, TJX +.98, RL +1.40, UAA +.58, LULU +2.79, NKE +1.13, TPR +.81, CPRI +1.32 and XRT $45.04 +.74 (1.67%).

 

 

FAANG and big cap tech were HIGHER with both AAPL +6.75 (3.9%) and FB +2.90 (1.71%) both getting upgrades.  This group was quietly lower since making highs last year.  Both gave up major advances and started up a couple of weeks ago, accelerating today on the Merrill BUY for AAPL with a price of $210 and Nomura Buy and objective of  $215.  The rest were higher with GOOGL +30, AMZN +53.70, NFLX +10.20, NVDA + 11.26 (7.47%) on the MLNX deal, TSLA +5.86, BABA +6.43, BIDU +3.60, IBM +2.91, BOX +.68, and XLK $71.50 +1.69 (3.56%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.22, JPM +1.58, BAC +.39, MS +.41, C +.44, PNC +1.86, AIG +.62 and XLF $26.30 +.33 (1.27%).  I can only say that this sector has been a fairly constant disappointment, moving with the market, but falling back on any overall weakness.  The uncertainty in the interest rate markets has made this group limited upside and disappointing declines.  GS is down from $275 this time last year, JPM has fared only slightly better falling from just under $120 late last year and BAC is down from $33 and has been in a trading range $25-31 for 2 ½ years.

 

 

OIL, $56.79 +.72 Since this market put in its bottom in late December we have had pretty much an orderly move higher with higher lows and higher highs sometimes called a “running correction.”  The only area where we had a pullback was in early February when we moved from $55.50 back down to the trend line just over $51.25 and started higher again.  In last night’s letter I wrote that the trend-line break to support at $52, followed by a higher close was BULLISH.  I stand by that and expect that we will move higher.  All the stocks on my list were higher with moves from 1% up to 6.9% while the ETF XLE finished $65.00 +1.10 (1.72%).

 

METALS, $1,293 -6.30 As mentioned we came out of a “Bull Flag” and I was looking for $1,350-60 and the high last Wednesday was $1349.80 and we finished our liquidation vs. $1347.  Unfortunately, we bought the uptrend line and got stopped out the same day.  We went back into the gold today using GLD 3/122 calls @ $ .49, and they gapped up the next day and we sold half on the 100% Up Rule with a gap @ $1.12 for a nice gain.  We are holding the second half and today I added some GLD 4/124 calls @ $ .89.  They closed $ .89.

 

That economic news from China has added to an advance here toward $3.00.  Last week’s move was pretty dramatic moving to just over $2.97.  Today’s is another inside day closing $2.9010 + .0075, is just the signal of a short-term consolidation IF we are going higher.  Remember that this commodity traded from a contract high over $3.31 in June to make a new contract low in just 5 weeks.  When it gets volatile, it really moves.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,835 -55 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several days going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.62 -.24 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold.  It’s getting boring again.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 3/7/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 8th

 

Retail Not So Great

More Small Bio/Pharma Deals

BPTH EXPLODES

 

Today’s market was only slightly higher in the futures markets pre-open but it just didn’t carry over and we started down and made the low of the day in the DJIA at 10:30 – 321 and never got back above -130 for the day.  It finished -200.23 (.78%), while the S&P 500 did make a new low late in the day and finished -22.52 (.81%) with NASDAQ -84.46 (1.13%), the Russell -13.19 (.86, and again the biggest lose, DJ Transports, setting a 20- year record of 10 days down in a row -99 (.96%).  Market internals were weak with NYSE volume and A/D both 2.5”1 down and NASDAQ slightly better at just 2:1 lower.  DJIA A/D was 26:4 down but no stock contributing as much as -20 Dow Points, MMM -19 was the worst, but most were only in the 13-16 range.

 

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  What a difference a day makes. Yesterday’s big retail winners were today’s biggest losers.  While not a “department store” retailer, KR missed on top and bottom lines and gave very soft guidance.  Recent highs (9/2018) were just under $33 and yesterday’s close was $28.44. Today’s pre-open trading was $24.85 – 3.59 (12%), and the stock is also hindered by the AMZN statement that they are going to add a new group of grocery store aside from their ownership of Whole Foods.  At the end of the day we were $25.61 -2.83 (9.95%).  BURL also missed and after a 5 year run from the low $20’s to $180, it was trading $155 – 12.18 (7%), and it only got worse, trading as low as $139.75 and finishing $147.28 -19.90 (11.90%).

 

Pharma again had some big winners in the smaller capitalization stocks with GTXI, a small firm with only 11 employees being “reverse-merged” with a private firm, Oncternal, that wants to be in business in the same area as GTXI, and become public at the same time.  Based on synergies, GTXI will downsize their workforce by 4 to 7.  The stock, public for 12 years did a 1:10 reverse in late 2016 and fell to new all-time lows of $ .92 on Wednesday, finished the day $1.54+ .62 (61.17%) after trading $2.56.

 

Another little one on the run is SEEL a small cap that had a video presentation of its participation in the Cowen Healthcare Conference and has a new “compound” that will help development of their Parkinson’s portfolio offering.  The stock made a new all-time low of $1.32 on Tuesday closed $3.04 +1.49 (96.13%) but is currently trading in extended hours at $4.80 + an additional 1.76 an additional 57.8%.

 

After the close earnings for COST were a beat top and bottom line as well as giving good guidance, sending the stock up $10 over the $216.79 close.  EB, an international event ticketing company which has undergone good growth in Mexico, beat on revenues but had a wider that expected loss and gave poor guidance.  The company, public only since September 2018, with a high just over $40 fell to a new low of $23.64 and is currently trading $24.80 – 7.62 (23.5%).

 

 

The biggest winner yesterday in a very week group was BPTH reported Phase 2 trials for its AML (acute myeloid leukemia) and the stock gapped up to $7.45 and after trading $14.60 it closed $12.02 +7.40 (160.17%).  This morning it was continuing higher to trade as high as $16.85 pre-open.  After opening $18.20 and traded as high as $29, but by 11:00AM it had already traded $43 and had been halted (for volatility) 3 times.  By 11:30 it had traded $73.52 and had been halted 5 times. By 12:15 it was back to $31.35, and at the close it was $38.86 +26.84 (223%).  As I mentioned, the stock is in short supply due to its 2 reverse splits of 1:10 and 1:20, which makes today’s volume of just over 36 million shares.  According to OTC Markets the outstanding is 680,115.  There is a filing from last month for 648,233 shares @ $2.65 with 324,117 warrants for 5 ½ years at the same price.  Regardless, no matter how you figure it, 36 million in volume is many times the outstanding let alone the float.  This is fairly typical for a company with 2 reverses within the past 2 years.  The breakthrough is dramatic, but the stock was halted for volatility 14 times today by my count.  Still, I’m sure they’re drinking champagne at headquarters.

 

One more name is SAEX, SAExploration, an international oilfield service company dealing in seismic services including 2D, 3D, and 4D time-lapse studies on both land and sea floors.  The stock, reverse split 1:20 in September closed the day $3.68.  Friday’s announcement that Morgan Stanley had acquired a 9.2% stake had little effect, but an announcement after the close that they received $60 million in new projects sent the stock higher and in extended trading is $5.72 + 2.04 (55.43%).

 

In case you didn’t notice, these little ones have something in common regardless of industry; they have all been reverse-split, shrinking outstanding and float.

 

 

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA was LOWER, across the board with the only exception being ABBV +.23 and TEVA +.05.  CELG -.86, BIIB -6.97 (2.19%), REGN -14.11 (3.33%), ISRG -3.35, MYL -.24, VRTX -2.50, BCH -.33, INCY -.92, ICPT -2.00, and IBB $109.14 -.73 (.66%).

 

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were LOWER with every stock on my list lower, TLRY -5.15 (6.79%), CGC -1.14, CRON -.59, GWPH -.41, ACB -.34 (4.3%), PYX -.29, APHA -.44 (4.37%), NBEV -.33 and MJ $35.57 -1.10 (3%).

 

 

RETAIL was LOWER with the retailers lower but KR (see above) was the big loser on both earnings and AMZN coming to grocery stores.  XRT was $44.65 -.63 (1.39%).

 

 

FAANG and big cap tech were LOWER with GOOGL -14.94, AMZN -40.45 (2.42%), AAPL -1.88, FB -3.86, NFLX -6.66, NVDA -2.87, TSLA +3.26, BABA -6.42 (3.49%), BIDU -4.34 (2.55%), IBM -1.68, BOX +.40 and XLK $69.82 -.67 (.96%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -2.04, JPM -.82, BAC -.30, MS -.55, C -.61, PNC -1.45, AIG -.69 and XLF $25.94 -.31 (1.18%).

 

 

OIL, $56.66 +.44 Since this market put in its bottom in late December we have had pretty much an orderly move higher with higher lows and higher highs sometimes called a “running correction.”  The only area where we had a pullback was in early February when we moved from $55.50 back down to the trend line just over $51.25 and started higher again.  Friday’s drop of $1.42 was actually the second drop of the week (Monday -1.78) has only brought the price back to the well-established uptrend line. The stocks were LOWER today with XLE $65.12 -.39 (.60%).

 

 

METALS, $1,286.10 -1.50 As mentioned we came out of a “Bull Flag” and I was looking for $1,350-60 and the high last Wednesday was $1349.80 and we finished our liquidation vs. $1347.  Unfortunately, we bought the uptrend line and got stopped out the same day.  We went back into the gold today using GLD 3/122 calls @ $ .49, and they closed .46.

 

That economic news from China has added to an advance here toward $3.00.  Last week’s move was pretty dramatic moving to just over $2.97.  Today’s the second inside day closing $2.9105 -.008 is just the signal of a short-term consolidation IF we are going higher.  Remember that this commodity traded from a contract high over $3.31 in June to make a new contract low in just 5 weeks.  When it gets volatile, it really moves.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,870 +30 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several days going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.75 +.10 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold.  It’s getting boring again.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 3/6/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 7th

 

Health / Pharma Losers

Retail Better

 

We started a bit higher but it didn’t last long and we moved lower without much reason or conviction.  We made a low at 25,633 around 1:30 and while we tried to rally there wasn’t enough to take us back up past down 60 and we finished the day with the DJIA -133.17 (.52%), NASDAQ -70.44 (.93%), S&P 500 -18.20 (.65%), the Russell was the biggest loser -31.46 (2.04%) and DJ Transports made it 9 in a row -52.92 (.51%).  Market internals were very bad with NYSE volume 5:1 down and A/D 3.2:1 while NASDAQ was only marginally better with 2.5:1 and 3.5:1 respectively.  While the DJIA wasn’t as weak as the internals were 9 up, 21 down with the biggest losers, BA -38 DPs, CAT -16, UNH and WBA both -16.  It should be noted that UNH has fallen from $272 to $234 in the last 2 ½ weeks and is within $2 of the December low of $231.80, with the next support down near $210.

 

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  The big winners on the day were again, retailers.  Good numbers for ANF, as low as $15.28 late last year gapped up and finished the day $25.70 +4.34 (20.37%).  BJ’s looked a little weak on the raw data but as it turned out, the adjusted net was actually better than expectations, with guidance decidedly stronger.  However, after trading as high as $28.11 it fell back to $35.62 -1.00 (3.7%). Dollar Tree (DLTR) had mixed results primarily from the rebranding and closing 600 Family Dollar, which it acquired.  Same store sales were +3.2% and guidance was good and the stock finished +$4.88 (5.11%).

 

The biggest winner in a very week group was BPTH reported Phase 2 trials for its AML (acute myeloid leukemia) and the stock gapped up to $7.45 and after trading $14.60 it closed $12.02 +7.40 (160.17%).  The stock, like many of the microcap Pharma names, has been reversed twice, once 1:10 last February and 1:20 1/18/2019 reducing the float.  Last week’s range was $1.84 to 8.84 and closed $7.72 +5.52 (250%).  The “adjusted” high for the stock is now $1,050.  The rest of health and Bio / Pharma has been taken out and beaten.  AGN also reported the results for their Phase 3 trial for Rapastiniel, for depression and it did not meet endpoint.  After closing $137.51 -2.65 it fell as low as $126.56 before recovering to close $132.40 – 5.11 (3.72%).  Also, LGND announced the sale of its revenue stream for Promacta including all related intellectual property rights for $827 Million.  I can only assume that this was a disappointing price since the stock closed $106.52 -14.09 (11.68%).  The only saving factor is that there will continue to deals from the biggies to the small fish.

 

Some other problems, NIO (“Chinese Tesla”) isn’t doing quite so well.  Declining deliveries and several downgrades sent this one lower, finishing the day $8.01 -2.15 (21.16%).  Its first week back in September had a range of $5.35 to $13.80, and since that time we haven’t been either higher or lower than that range.  Last, THO reported and missed.  The stock gapped down to 60.14, traded down to 59.45 before closing $61.77 -2.81 (4.35%).

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA was LOWER, across the board with the only exception being CELG +.54, and IBB finishing its worst day since Xmas eve finishing $109.88 – 3.54 (3.12%).

 

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were LOWER with every stock on my list down from 1.5% to 7% with MJ $36.67 -.61 (1.64%).

 

 

RETAIL was LOWER with the retailers lower but (see above) with the brands outperforming.  XRT $45.29 - .36 (.79%).  We are coming into a period that most in this group having unimpressive comparisons that most think they will beat.

 

 

FAANG are MIXED with GOOGL -6.19, AMZN -28.43, AAPL -1.79, FB +.73, NFLX +4.94, NVDA -4.63, TSLA +.26, BABA -1.50, BIDU +2.50, IBM -1.67, BOX -.40 and XLK $70.49 -.37 (.52%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER with all names down and XLF $26.25 -.17 (.64%).

 

 

OIL, $56.22 -.34 Since this market put in its bottom in late December we have had pretty much an orderly move higher with higher lows and higher highs sometimes called a “running correction.”  The only area where we had a pullback was in early February when we moved from $55.50 back down to the trend line just over $51.25 and started higher again.  Friday’s drop of $1.42 was actually the second drop of the week (Monday -1.78) has only brought the price back to the well-established uptrend line. The stocks were LOWER today with XLE $65.51 -.84 (1.27%).

 

 

METALS, $1,287.60 +2.90 As mentioned we came out of a “Bull Flag” and I was looking for $1,350-60 and the high last Wednesday was $1349.80 and we finished our liquidation vs. $1347.  Unfortunately, we bought the uptrend line and got stopped out the same day.  The massive liquidation pushing Gold down by $60 in just 8 days is disturbing.  A subscriber that I highly respect gave me a price objective last week of $1,282, I couldn’t see how it would happen, yet here we are.

 

That economic news from China has added to an advance here toward $3.00.  Last week’s move was pretty dramatic moving to just over $2.97.  Today’s the second inside day closing $2.9185 -.015 is just the signal of a short-term consolidation IF we are going higher.  Remember that this commodity traded from a contract high over $3.31 in June to make a new contract low in just 5 weeks.  When it gets volatile, it really moves.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,840 +5 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several days going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.65 +.8 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold.  It’s getting boring again.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 3/5/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 6th

 

Retail Roars Ahead

A VERY Boring Day

 

We started a bit higher and had a quiet back and forth day between 2796 and 2783 a total of 5 times, finishing the day 2789.65 -3.16 (.11%), DJIA -13.02 (.05%), NASDAQ -1.21 (.02%), the Russell -7.15 (.45%) and the DJ Transports the big loser finishing at the low -85.65 (.82%) and down 8 days in a row.  Market internals were reflective of the boring, quiet day with NYSE volume 6:5 down and A/D 13:15, and NASDAQ 1:1 AND 1.5:1 down.  All in all a lot like watching paint dry.

 

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  The big winners on the day were the 2 earnings reports for TGT and KSS.  Both had good numbers with TGT breaking out of the consolidation since it’s last report when it gapped down from 78 to 66 in November.  The move higher was not only impressive, but it also held the high of the day and finished $76.00 +3.33 (4.58%).  KSS was even better with great results from their relationship with AMZN really paying off.  The company not only sells AMZN products like ECHO, but it is also a pick-up and drop-off point for AMZN products bought online.  The stock has been recovering from a break-down from November when it fell from $82 to $62 in a week and spent the last 3 months between $58 and $71 and finished today $71.33 +4.86 (7.31%).  Both companies have benefitted from smaller store with private label offerings. CRM had earnings last night and the stock was down 5 in normal trading and traded lower by another $5 on the news.  However, when the Mr. Benioff finished the call and an appearance with Cramer the stock had recovered and opened higher this morning hitting $160.88 before giving up a bit to close $156.97 -1.53 (.97%).  It was bad news for AFH, an auto insurance firm that came out and said it was going to increase loan-loss reserves based on new actuarial info and while it was down from $21.50 early last year to close the day $2.66 – 4.14 (60.8%).  CTRP came in with much stronger than expected revenues and a smaller loss than expected, and great forward guidance.  The company also received several upgrades and raised price objectives and finished $41.91 +6.92 (19.8%).  The Bio/Pharma disaster du jour was ADMS with a miss on earnings and revenues and was downgraded at Cowen, Mizuho, and Needham with price objectives cut from $11 to $5, and the stock, down from $44 12 months ago finished $8.16 -3.64 (30.85%).

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA was LOWER, across the board with the only exception being CELG +.51, and IBB finishing $113.42 -.59 (.52%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were HIGHER with TLRY - .01, CGC +.86, CRON +1.84 (8.57%), GWPH -3.86, ACB +.88 (12.19%), PYX +.56, APHA +.09, NBEV -.07 and MJ $37.28 +.63 (1.72%).

 

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with the numbers from TGT and KSS (see above), and M +.01, JWN -.14, DDS +.20, JCP +.09 (5.73%), WMT +.34, TJX +.25, RL -.55, UAA +.06, LULU +1.22, NKE -.20, TPR +.02, CPRI +.10, and XRT $45.65 +.37 (.82%).

 

 

FAANG are MIXED with GOOGL +13.33, AMZN -6.18, AAPL -.75, FB +4.40, NFLX +1.95, NVDA -.58, TSLA -8.11, BABA -2.15, BIDU +7.08, IBM -.82, BOX -.37 and XLK $70.86 -.21 (.30%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS - .03, JPM -.19, BAC -.01, MS -.10, C -.87, PNC +1.49, AIG -.34, and XLF $26.37 -.10 (.38%).

 

 

OIL, $56.56 -.03 Since this market put in its bottom in late December we have had pretty much an orderly move higher with higher lows and higher highs sometimes called a “running correction.”  The only area where we had a pullback was in early February when we moved from $55.50 back down to the trend line just over $51.25 and started higher again.  Friday’s drop of $1.42 was actually the second drop of the week (Monday -1.78) has only brought the price back to the well-established uptrend line. The stocks were MIXED TO LOWER today with XLE $66.35 -.22 (.33%).

 

 

METALS, $1,284.70 -2.80 As mentioned we came out of a “Bull Flag” and I was looking for $1,350-60 and the high last Wednesday was $1349.80 and we finished our liquidation vs. $1347.  Unfortunately, we bought the uptrend line and got stopped out the same day.  The massive liquidation pushing Gold down by $60 in just 8 days is disturbing.  A subscriber that I highly respect gave me a price objective last week of $1,282, I couldn’t see how it would happen, yet here we are.

 

That economic news from China has added to an advance here toward $3.00.  Last week’s move was pretty dramatic moving to just over $2.97.  Today’s inside day closing $2.9335 +.0245 is just the signal of a short-term consolidation IF we are going higher.  Remember that this commodity traded from a contract high over $3.31 in June to make a new contract low in just 5 weeks.  When it gets volatile, it really moves.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,835 +145 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several days going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.57 +.28 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold.  It’s getting boring again.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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closing trades with their subscriptions

 

 

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Call 617-827-1296.

After the close 3/4/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 5th

 

 

2818 Turns S&P Lower

A Good Day For FAANG

 

We started higher and made a high in the first 15 minutes at 26.155 +119 and then we spent an hour moving back down to unchanged.  We went negative just after 11:00 and didn’t look back until we were -400 around 1:15 before a rally that by 3:00 had us down about 200., and we stayed in that range closing -206.67 (.79%), NASDAQ -17.78 (.23%), S&P 500 -10.86 (.39%) the Russell -14.20 (.89%) and DJ Transports -62.31 (.60%) down for the 7th day in a row.  Today’s action may be technically import, since we made a new recovery high early and then a lower low than Friday, in fact a new low for the past 10 days.  As I wrote in yesterday’s letter, this market has been stopped in the 2800.18 – 2816.94 3 times since October and today’s high of 2816.88 made it the 4th time.  As I said in the letter, I’m not a bear, and last week I said I was cautious, and I think we will find support between 2700 – 2740 and see what develops there.  Market internals were reflective of the move with but got much better at the close with NYSE volume starting 1.5:1 UP at 11:00 and 4:1 DOWN at 1:00PM and 1.4:1 Down at the close and A/D started 9:5 Up finishing 4:3 down. NASDAQ was 6:5 down volume and 1.8:1 A/D.  The biggest Dow losers were BA – 52 Dow Points, MCD – 31, V and NKE -11, but the biggest loser by far was UNH (again) -69 DPs.

 

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  There were plenty of good news in the Tech group with a major upgrade in AMZN from Evercore with a new price target raised from $1,800 to $1,955.  The tech group continues to have good growth and when you reach this stage of an economic expansion, investors tend to pay up for that growth.  AMZN is also getting some more attention from its comments from Friday afternoon that it is going into the grocery business with another level of store other than their already owned Whole Foods.  The rest of the group was lower with KR coming down from $29.90 Friday to $27.44 before closing $28.02 – 1.31 (4.47%).  Today it recovered a bit to $28.64 +.62 (2.2%).  The rest of the “department store” grocers like WMT and TGT were a little weaker, but nothing like the stand-alone grocers. LLY, like the rest of the market was higher, in fact making a new all-time high every month for the last 4 months announced a discount for their brand of Insulin but it too reversed moving from that high of $130.51 touching 125.34 and closing $127.46 -1.38 (1.07%).  ASND reported positive results for its pediatric growth hormone product and surged by 65% premarket, and later announced a $400 million share offering of ADR’s since the company is in Denmark.  It finished $120.60 +51.29 (74%) and traded slightly higher in aftermarket.  Nightstar Therapeutics was bought by BIIB this morning and finished $25.18 +10.02 (66%).  As I’ve said here before, this is the way BIO/Pharma waits for a successful new product and then just buys the company.  Nightstar’s “retinal gene therapy was the key to this deal.  PLCE, Children’s Place has poor earning and was also negatively affected by the bankruptcy of rival Gymboree, who put everything on deeply discounted sale.  The stock has been cut in half since its October high at $160 and fell to $82.05 before closing $84.82 -9.78 (10.34%).  Hawaiian Air has been lower since hitting $60 in late 2017, and today’s announcement that LUV is starting their routes not only to Hawaii, but also into the HA’s most lucrative routes intra-island.  HA finished $26.38 -3.24 (10.94%).

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA was LOWER, across the board and BIIB was penalized for its all cash purchase of NITE (above) and it closed -6.84 (2.05%), CELG -.22, ABBV -.64, REGN -5.74, ISRG -8.62, MYL +.63 (2.3%), TEVA -.32, VRTX -2.12, BCH +.13, INCY -2.76, ICPT -2.05 and IBB $114 -1.11 (.96%).

 

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were LOWER with TLRY -2.31, CGC -.30, CRON -.39, GWPH -.91, ACB -.18, PYX -.93, APHA +.16, NBEV -.20 and MJ $36.87 -.25 (.67%).

 

 

 

RETAIL was LOWER with the rest of the market.  The only name higher on my list was JCP +.04 (2.6%), and the brands did no better.  XRT was $45.28 -.89 (1.93%).

 

 

FAANG are HIGHER with GOOGL +3.58, AMZN +24.71 (see above), AAPL +.83, FB +4.95, NFLX -6.82, NVDA +.22, TSLA -8.73, BABA +3.32, BIDU -1.24, IBM -.95 BOX -.62 and XLK $71.07 -.27 (.38%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -2.20, JPM -.34, BAC -.31, MS -.59, C -.71, PNC -.29, AIG +.28, and XLF $26.52 -.17 (.64%).

 

 

OIL, $56.59 +.79 Since this market put in its bottom in late December we have had pretty much an orderly move higher with higher lows and higher highs sometimes called a “running correction.”  The only area where we had a pullback was in early February when we moved from $55.50 back down to the trend line just over $51.25 and started higher again.  Friday’s drop of $1.42 was actually the second drop of the week (Monday -1.78) has only brought the price back to the well-established uptrend line. The stocks were MIXED TO HIGHER today with XLE $66.68 +.23 (.35%).

 

 

METALS, $1,287.50 -11.70 As mentioned we came out of a “Bull Flag” and I was looking for $1,350-60 and the high last Wednesday was $1349.80 and we finished our liquidation vs. $1347.  Unfortunately, we bought the uptrend line and got stopped out the same day.  The massive liquidation pushing Gold down by $60 in just 8 days is disturbing.  A subscriber that I highly respect gave me a price objective last week of $1,282, I couldn’t see how it would happen, yet here we are.

 

That economic news from China has added to an advance here toward $3.00.  Last week’s move was pretty dramatic moving to just over $2.97.  Today’s decline touching 2.90 and closing lower may signal a short-term consolidation IF we are going higher.  Remember that this commodity traded from a contract high over $3.31 in June to make a new contract low in just 5 weeks.  When it gets volatile, it really moves.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,690 -130 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several days going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.29 - .29 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold.  It’s getting boring again.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 2/28/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading March 1st

 

Quiet Day

Another Good Day for Retail

 

It was a quiet day with the futures lower pre-Market before the GDP number was released at 8:30 and turned them neutral to higher.  All in all, it was still a relatively short range day with the DJIA and the S&P 500 both actually having an “inside day” (lower high, higher low).  We finished with DJIA -69.16 (.27%), NASDAQ -21.98 (.29%), S&P 500 -7.89 (.28%), the Russell -5.54 (.35%) and the DJ Transports -24.39 (.23%).  The market internals were soft, and are beginning to disturb me with NYSE volume 1.5:1 down and A/D 1.2:1, NASDAQ was slightly better with volume 13:12 and A/D 1.3:1 negative also.  For the second day UNH was the biggest DJIA loser – 53 Dow points, CAT -16 and the rest of the list was 16 down, 14 higher.  On the upside the only big gainer was BA +31 DPs.

 

 

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  There were plenty of good news in the retail space with TJX not giving up any of the gains from last night and several new reports from JWN, which missed revenues and slightly beat bottom line, but the stock is higher based on the momentum of both off-price sales.  GPS had a slight beat in profits but poor revenues but they also unveiled a plan to split the company into two separate entities with a shake-up in management and the stock took off trading $31.72 + 6.32 and is currently trading $31.00 +5.70 or 22.7% Old Navy will become a stand-alone outfit.  On the payments side, SQ had somewhat of a miss last night and after opening $75.92 – 3.40 but turned higher closing $81.24 +1.92 (2.42%).  There were some big misses, like HPQ, a disappointment finishing the day $19.73 -4.12 (17.27%), Party City, PRTY missed and finished $10.41 -1.90 (15.43%), SYNH reported that they are under investigation by the SEC 2 days ago.  This stock has gyrated between $35 and $60 for the past 4 years and after closing at a recent high of $55.77 Friday finished traded today at $36.72 it closed $41.77 -10.24 (19.69%).  NTNX reported after the close and was a disappointment with an inline loss but lower revenues and poor guidance.  The stock has moved from $36 to $54 this year but fell to $36.44 and is trading $37.90 – 12.19 (24.34%).  TDOC missed, was downgraded, and after trading $62.00 closed $64.36 -4.63 (6.71%).  The feel-good (and profitable) report from HZNP, that their drug for a thyroid related eye ailment that up until now requires serious surgery, and has no other treatment, in Phase 3 trials met endpoints and is moving forward.  Their stock, which traded $20.05 yesterday had a high today of $29.44, closing $29.01 +7.16 (32.7%).

HPQ also missed and is getting punished for it.  The stock, which has rallied from just under $20 since Xmas eve to $24.09 completed the round-trip and finished the day $19.73 -4.12 (17.27%).  Last, a stock that I normally wouldn’t cover, NVAX, that we traded last year from $1.00 to $2.35 also completed the round-trip, missing their endpoint on a pneumonia drug and finished the day at $ .71 -1.21 (63.02%)…I hate when that happens.

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA was LOWER, across the board with the only exception ICPT who reported great results on the revenues side of their new drug for NASH, with strong guidance.  The stock is $99.83 +7.07 (7.62%).  The IBB closed $112.74 -1.40 (1.23%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were MIXED to HIGHER with TLRY +2.39, CGC +1.84 (4.02%), CRON +.32, GWPH -1.98, ACB -.02, PYX -.75, NBEV +.26 (4.65%), and MJ $37.09 +.01 (.03%).

 

 

RETAIL was MOSTLY LOWER with the exceptions mentioned above, but JCP, seemingly following in the footsteps of SHLDQ, reported and confirmed that they were closing more stores.  The Street evidently liked the news since the stock is $1.52 +.29 (23.39%).  XRT closed $46.15 +.07 (.15%).

 

FAANG are LOWER with GOOGL +3.66 but the rest of the list just not able to follow with AMZN -.59, AAPL -1.63, FB -1.44, NFLX -4.71, NVDA -1.00, TSLA -4.73, BABA -1.59, BIDU +.37, IBM -.80, BOX - $4.63 (18.61%), and XLK $70.68 -.38 (.53%).

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -1.18, JPM -.84, BAC -.25, MS -.66, C -.41, PNC +.30, AIG -.27 and XLF $26.53 -.06 (.23%).

 

 

OIL, $$57.22 +.28 Since this market put in its bottom in late December we have had pretty much an orderly move higher with higher lows and higher highs sometimes called a “running correction.”  The only area where we had a pullback was in early February when we moved from $55.50 back down to the trend line just over $51.25 and started higher again.  Today’s move higher, put use within spitting distance of the recovery high close at $57.26, and the recovery high of $57.81. This is the first real test for this market, and I think it will hold and move higher again. The stocks were LOWER today with XLE $65.25 -.66 (1.0%). (.38%).

 

 

METALS, $1,316.40 -4.80 As mentioned we came out of a “Bull Flag” and I was looking for $1,350-60 and the high last Wednesday was $1349.80 and we finished our liquidation vs. $1347.  We have come back down to just below $1,316 and I expect that we may try a little lower but every move in Gold has had a consolidation and pull back lasting roughly 2 ½ weeks or so.  I said that I could see a move to near $1318-20 before starting back on its way to $1,375, and today’s low around $1,318 brings us closer to getting long again.

 

That economic news from China has added to an advance here toward $3.00.  Last week’s move was pretty dramatic moving to just over $2.97.  Today’s gain touching 2.965 but closing lower may signal a short-term consolidation IF we are going higher.  Remember that this commodity traded from a contract high over $3.31 in June to make a new contract low in just 5 weeks.  When it gets volatile, it really moves.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,790 = 80 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several days going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.46 + .16 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 2/27/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading February 28TH

 

Bad Day for Trump

Good Day for Retail

 

Today started off on the downside by about 100 and by 10:30 we made the low of the day -180, followed by a slow steady climb that topped out at 1:30 just under unchanged and stalling at -30.  The DJIA was clearly the weak sister and it faded into the close for a net change of -72.82 (.28%) while NASDAQ was +5.21 (.07%), S&P 500 -1.52 (.05%), DJ Transports closing on its high at +5.95 (.06%), and the Russell +3.57 (.23%).  The losses in the DJIA were dominated by HD with a carryover from yesterday’s disappointing results -32 Dow points and UNH -88 DPs, while the biggest gainer, at new all-time highs was BA +60 DPs.  In the DJ we were 13 up, 16 down and 1 unchanged.  Market internals were slightly positive on NYSE at 1.25:1 volume and 15:14 A/D while NASDAQ volume was just negative at 1.3:1 and A/D was 16:15 positive.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  as mentioned above, losses in both HD and UNH were the drag with HD -4.63 (2.46%) and UNH -12.90 (4.91%).  Premarket we had a trio of earnings beats in retail featuring TJX opening $49.78 and finishing the day $51.56 +1.84 (3.70%), BBY opening $68.17 + 8 finishing $68.82 +8.51 (14.1%), and LOW, in contrast to HDs miss, opened $109.01 and finished off the high but still $107.62 +2.59 (2.47%).

 

Versum Materials (VSM) which closed out last year around $26 and has moved steadily to $41, was bought by MRK for $48.00 and actually opened a shade higher than the offer at $48.70 and closed $49.13 +7.73 (18.67%), so there may be a higher bid coming from someone else.  Also in the deal arena, Wellington Management, largest holder of BMY came out and said they did not support the BMY deal for CELG.  BMY shot up to $53 + 2.04 while CELG fell from $90.99 to 82.19 – 8.80 (10%) in reaction to the news.  PANW beat and had several upgrades and gapped up 23 and closed the day $254.88 +19.33 (8.21%).  MELI reported a smaller loss than expected .05 vs .13 expected and revenue growth of just over 20%.  It closed $446.68 +77.19 (20.89%).  Last, INGN, $287 in Q4 of 2018 had already fallen to $110 and rallied back to $155 gapped down to $117.25 at the open and finished the day $106.28 -33.78 (24.12%).

 

 

BIO / PHARMA was MIXED, with CELG (above) -7.52 (8.38%), BIIB +1.27, ABBV -1.31, REGN +7.18, ISRG +.95, MYL -4.58 (14.89%), VRTX +.89, BCH -.22, INCY +1.30, ICPT -.16 and IBB $113.20 +.70 (.62%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were MIXED with TLRY +.20, CGC -.86, CRON -.72, GWPH +20.11 (13%), ACB -.20, APHA -.17, NBEV -.06 and MJ $37.08 +.25 (.68%).

  

RETAIL was MOSTLY HIGHER with XRT $46.08 +.46 (1.01%).

 

FAANG are MIXED with GOOGL +.25, AMZN +2.60, AAPL +.42, FB -1.50, NFLX -2.19, NVDA -1.30, TSLA +17.60 (5.91%), BABA +.51, BIDU +.62, IBM -.55, BOX 18.87 -5.46 (22% on poor guidance), and XLK $71.06 -.07 (22.44%)

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +.39, JPM -.16, BAC +.27, MS +.21, C +.28, PNC +1.98, AIG -.39 and XLF $26.59 +.10 (.38%).

 

 

OIL, $56.94 +1.44 Since this market put in its bottom in late December we have had pretty much an orderly move higher with higher lows and higher highs sometimes called a “running correction.”  The only area where we had a pullback was in early February when we moved from $55.50 back down to the trend line just over $51.25 and started higher again.  Today’s move higher, put use within spitting distance of the recovery high close at $57.26, and the recovery high of $57.81. This is the first real test for this market, and I think it will hold and move higher again. The stocks were HIGHER today with XLE $65.91 +.25 (.38%).

 

 

METALS, $1,321.20 -7.30 As mentioned we came out of a “Bull Flag” and I was looking for $1,350-60 and the high last Wednesday was $1349.80 and we finished our liquidation vs. $1347.  We have come back down to just below $1,325 and I expect that we may try a little lower but every move in Gold has had a consolidation and pull back lasting roughly 2 ½ weeks or so.  I said that I could see a move to near $1318-20 before starting back on its way to $1,375, and today’s low around $1,318 brings us closer to getting long again.

 

That economic news from China has added to an advance here toward $3.00.  Last week’s move was pretty dramatic moving to just over $2.97.  Today’s gain touching 2.9725 but closing lower may signal a short-term consolidation IF we are going higher.  Remember that this commodity traded from a contract high over $3.31 in June to make a new contract low in just 5 weeks.  When it gets volatile, it really moves.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,710 -65 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several days going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.30 -.06 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 2/26/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading February 27TH

 

 

Quiet Day, Little Changed

HD MISSES, CAT Downgrade

 

Today started off on the downside by about 100 but wasn’t all that soft considering that the miss at HD and a downgrade of CAT contributed -60 Dow points.  This didn’t have much affect on the S&P or NASDAQ and both started to recover almost immediately.  By the end of the day all had recovered, gone positive and then sold off just a bit and the closes were DJIA -33.97 (.15%), NASDAQ -5.16 (.07%), S&P 500 -2.21 (.008%), the Russell was the big loser -11.32 (.71%), and DJ Transports -45.90 (.43%).  Market internals were negative on both exchanges with NYSE 1.5:1 volume and A/D 4:3, while NASDAQ was only slightly better at 6:5 volume and 1.7:1 A/D.  The DJIA stocks were split 20:10 positive with the biggest losers remaining CAT and HD for a total of 56 Dow points.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  as mentioned above, pre-opening saw losses in both HD and CAT that skewed the DJIA lower. HD missed both top and bottom line and guidance was considered poor.  HD opened $185.28 -4.70 and after trading as low as $182.28 moved back up to $188.30 -1.68 (.88%). M beat consensus even though the numbers were soft.  The company is doing yet another “restructuring,” its sixth in 6 years.  The stock opened higher + .16 and spent the day in a fairly short range finishing $24.72 +.36 (1.48%).  MEDP also beat lowered expectations but the guidance was very poor and after touching a new all-time high at $71.66 just yesterday it opened $58.18 -$12.50 (17.6%) it continued lower to $55 and finished $55.09 -15.49 (22%).  HTZ beat (as did its biggest competitor CAR) and having traded as low as $13.11 earlier this year opened $21.15 + 1.86 (8.9%) it traded as low as $18.21 and reversing back up to finally close $20.07 +.78 (4.04%).  ETSY followed thru from its strong beat yesterday after the close and traded from yesterday’s 55.68 low to open $64.94 and moved to $69.20 finishing the day $68.65 +9.64 (16.34%).  This company came public in 2015 at $16 and its first day was as high as $31, only to spend the next year moving steadily lower to $6.04 and spending 2 years between $11-$14 before emerging from the shadow of AMZN in its own niche business and has rewarded holders by several hundred percent, including a move of 60% YTD.  The Home Run of the day was FTNW a company that added $116Million in new contracts for “interior build-outs as well as technology and smart device deployments.”  The stock has an adjusted high of $55 due to two reverses of 1:20 and 1:25 since 2016, so float is small.  It closed yesterday $1.09 and opened today $3.40 +2.31(2.11%) before trading up to $4.44 and finishing the day $2.32 +1.23 (112.84%).  After the close WTW was halted for news and after reporting a small beat on earnings and a miss on revenues, and guided lower citing difficulty gaining memberships.  When they reopened it the stock started at $22.75 -8.62 and traded lower to $19.41 closing $20.12 – 9.45 (31.9%).  The stock has made the round-trip since Oprah bought a 15% interest in early 2017 around $12-13, starting it on the way to $105.  Now we’re pretty much back to where we started.  TNDM, maker of diabetes pump delivery system saw a rise in sales of 89% and after closing $49.41, up from $2.35 (adjusted for a 1:10 reverse) it gapped higher to close $59.10 +9.69 (19.7%).  Last was MYL, with not only disappointing numbers, but guidance for the year well under expectations.  The stock, up from $26 this year to $32 gapped down to $27.31 and finished $27.65 -3.31 (11%).

 

 

BIO / PHARMA was MIXED, with CELG -.70, BIIB +.14, ABBV +.21, REGN +5.77, ISRG -4.93, MYL (above) -3.32 (10.72%), TEVA -.64 (3.64%), BRTX +2.59, BCH +.22, INCY -1.18, ICPT-1.74 and IBB $112.59 -.37 (.33%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were HIGHER with TLRY +1.40, CGC +2.47, CRON +1.28, GWPH +16.19 (10.74%) earnings beat, ACB +.60, PYX +1.27, APHA +.63, NBEV -.27 and MJ $36.83 + .70 (1.94%).

 

 

RETAIL was MOSTLY HIGHER with M +.40, JWN +.82, KSS +.37, DDS +14.02 (21%) on blowout earnings, JCP +.04, WMT -.54, TGT -.92, TJX +.54, RL -.64, UAA -.04, LULU +2.44, NKE +.63 and XRT $45.62 +.33 (.73%).

 

 

FAANG are MIXED with GOOGL +3.66, AMZN +1.75, AAPL -.02, FB -.56, NFLX +.87, NVDA -1.79, TSLA -.75, BABA -.23, BIDU -3.09, IBM +.19, BOX +.13, and XLK $71.13 +.15 (.21%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS +.20, JPM -.83, BAC -.03, MS +.22, C -.48, PNC +1.29, AIG +.03, XLF $26.49 -.08 (.30%).

 

 

HOME BUILDERS were LOWER across the board with only TOL +1.09 (2.92%) and XHB $38.84 -.21 (.54%). the XHB $39.05 -.16 (.41%).

OIL, $55.50 + .02 Since this market put in its bottom in late December we have had pretty much an orderly move higher with higher lows and higher highs sometimes called a “running correction.”  The only area where we had a pullback was in early February when we moved from $55.50 back down to the trend line just over $51.25 and started higher again.  Today’s move lower to 55.02 (55.08 yesterday) brought us back into support between $52.50 and $55.00, closing up on the day. This is the first real test for this market, and I think it will hold and move higher again. The stocks were MIXED TO LOWER today with XLE $65.66 - .21 (.32%).

 

 

METALS, $1,328.50 -1.00 As mentioned we came out of a “Bull Flag” and I was looking for $1,350-60 and the high last Wednesday was $1349.80 and we finished our liquidation vs. $1347.  We have come back down to just below $1,325 and I expect that we may try a little lower but every move in Gold has had a consolidation and pull back lasting roughly 2 ½ weeks or so.  I could see a move to near $1318-20 before starting back on its way to $1,375.

 

That economic news from China has added to an advance here toward $3.00.  Last week’s move was pretty dramatic moving to just over $2.95.  Today’s gain touching 2.9765 but closing lower may signal a short-term consolidation IF we are going higher.  Remember that this commodity traded from a contract high over $3.31 in June to make a new contract low in just 5 weeks.  When it gets volatile, it really moves.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,775 -45 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several days going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.36 -.29 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 2/25/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading February 26TH

 

 

MAJOR BIO/PHARMA DEALS

GE Raises $21B

 

Today started pretty well with the futures higher overnight an Mr. Trump tweeted good news on trade (tariffs) and he left for Viet Nam for his big pow wow with Kim Jong Un.  We are running into resistance around 2810 (S&P) and for that past 4 weeks all I heard from the “pundits” was “as goes oil, so goes the stock market.”  Well, Oil fell by over 3% today and if they were right, the market should follow lower.  That being said, I wouldn’t make a trade based on that sentiment.  However, we are up 9 weeks in a row, at a round number, and so we took more profits and kept only minor portions of our INTC 3/52.50 calls, and we also bought a small position in S&P 500 (SPY) 3/275 puts just in case.  When volatility declines to under 15 (actually almost under 14) and protection is so cheap, it’s generally a good bet that you should participate.  After trading 2,813 we backed off and by 1:00 we had made a nominal new low on the day (although still up on the day)

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  pre-open saw several deals in Bio/Pharma that really set the tone for the day for that group. First came the news that Roche bid $114.50 all cash for Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) which had closed $51.56, having already moved from about $40 this year and opened $113.81 + 62.25 (120%).  The next was Clementia Pharma (CMTA) with a bid from French firm Ipsen with another cash bid and a split offer of $25.00 now and $6 contingent upon an FDA approval for “palovarotene,” their drug for a rare bone disorder.  The stock had closed Friday at $14.94, has been public only since 8/17 and had never traded above $20.15 before this morning’s open @ $26.05 + $11.11 (74%), reflecting the discount based on the contingency.  Last, GE sold its bio/pharma unit to Danaher.  This is how the company expressed it in the press release, but in fact, like most of GE, it was more of an industrial unit making MRI and other hospital equipment.  The price of $21 Billion is going to be used to retire debt, and while the market was impressed, it opened $11.57 +1.40 (13%) and traded as high of $11.75 before closing $10.82 + .65 (6.4%), S&P said it will not have an affect on their rating.

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA was HIGHER, with all of the excitement mentioned above.  CELG +1.27, BIIB +.66, ABBV +.27, REGN -2.14, ISRG +1.53, MYL -.29, TEVA +.34, VRTX +.57, BCH +.16, INCY +2.03, ICPT +1.25 and IBB $112.96 +2.25 2.03%.

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were LOWER with TLRY -1.68, CGC -.74, CRON -1.66 (7.57%), GWPH -.79, ACB +.22, PYX +1.19 (4.74%), APHA -.52, NBEV -.27, and MJ $36.12 -.42 (1.15%).

 

 

 

RETAIL was MIXED with m +.29, JWN +.77, KSS +1.49 (2.3%), DDS +4.50 (6.86) on earnings after the close, JCP -.01, WMT -.33, HD -2.30, TGT +.57, TJX -.95, RL +.03, UAA +.37, LULU -.72, NKE +.68, TPR +.57, CPRI +1.33 (3.03%) and XRT $45.29 +.14, (.31%).

 

 

FAANG are SLIGHTLY HIGHER with GOOGL +.77, AMZN +.34, AAPL +1.08, FB +2.65, NFLX +.91 NVDA -.41, TSLA +3.89, BABA +6.08, IBM +.21, BOX -.29 and XLK $71.12 +.48 (.68%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +2.77, JPM +1.12, BAC +.17, MS +.53, C +.39, PNC -.46, AIG +.96, and XLF $26.59 +.13 (.49%).

 

 

HOME BUILDERS were LOWER across the board with the XHB $39.05 -.16 (.41%).

 

 

OIL, $55.48 -1.78 Since this market put in its bottom in late December we have had pretty much an orderly move higher with higher lows and higher highs sometimes called a “running correction.”  The only area where we had a pullback was in early February when we moved from $55.50 back down to the trend line just over $51.25 and started higher again.  Today’s move lower brings us back into support between $52.50 and $54.50, closing on the lows. This is the first real test for this market, and I think it will hold and move higher again. The stocks were MIXED TO HIGHER today with XLE $65.87 + .11 (.17%).

 

 

METALS, $1,329.50 -3.30 As mentioned we came out of a “Bull Flag” and I was looking for $1,350-60 and the high last Wednesday was $1349.80 and we finished our liquidation vs. $1347.  We have come back down to just below $1,325 and I expect that we may try a little lower but every move in Gold has had a consolidation and pull back lasting roughly 2 ½ weeks or so.  I could see a move to near $1318-20 before starting back on its way to $1,375.

 

That economic news from China has added to an advance here toward $3.00.  Last week’s move was pretty dramatic moving to just over $2.95.  Today’s gain touching 2.9765 but closing lower may signal a short-term consolidation IF we are going higher.  Remember that this commodity traded from a contract high over $3.31 in June to make a new contract low in just 5 weeks.  When it gets volatile, it really moves.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,820 -111 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several days going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.65 -.16 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.   Now we’ll see if the change in direction can hold.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 2/20/2019


 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading February 21st

 

CVS Misses

TSLA LOSES GENERAL COUNSEL

 

Today started pretty flat and spent the early trade in a narrow range.  Today was actually the second day with a range of about 140 Dow points or just over .5%.  At the close we were DJIA +63.12 (.24%), NASDAQ +2.30 (.03%), S&P 500 +4.94 (.18%), the Russell +7.19 (.46%), and DJ Transports + 10.54 (.10%).  Market internals reflected the quiet nature of today’s action with NYSE volume 1.5:1 and A/D 1.6:1 while on NASDAQ we were a bit softer at 1.2:1 and 8:7 respectively.  Both places had over 100 new highs on the day.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  pre-open saw CVS sharply lower on its earnings beat but a miss on revenues and disappointment in guidance for the full year.  The stock traded down into the opening with a regular session open at $63.63 – 6.21 (8.1%) and after a full day of trading couldn’t mount much of a rebound finishing $64.22 -5.66 (8.10%).  It also pushed its biggest competitor, WBA lower by $2.63 (3.52%).  Other companies in the news were KNDI, the China based electric vehicle maker rallied hard on the news that the NTSB has passed their product for sale in the U.S. and it opened $7.35 +1.41 and traded as high as $8.85 before finishing the day $7.98 +2.04 (34.34%).  HSIC beat on top line but missed on revenue and warned that margins are under pressure and after hitting $59.01 earlier in the day it closed $60.17, on the high -2.94 (4.66%).  As mentioned above, TSLA continued to lose management with the departure of its general counsel after only 2 months and was the second-high level departure this year.  The stock traded $2.99 it managed to close $302.23 -3.41 (1.12%).  OMI was also lower, with a miss on earnings and a beat on revenues.  The stock, down from over $40 in 2016 also announced that they are working to find a buyer for the company, but that it may not result in a sale.  The stock finished $6.55 -1.39 (17.51%).  On the plus side, GRMN, the navigation technology firm beat, increased dividend and gave solid guidance opened $75.93 and never looked back, closing only $ .24 from its high at $83.06 +12.09 (17.04%).   We also had numbers from Avis (CAR) with a beat and the stock, closed at $29.41, jumped on the news, currently trading $32.77 +3.36 (11.4%).  ICPT, which was up over $131 yesterday but finished the day near the lows @ $117 was raised several places with new targets at Oppenheimer from $140 to $175, and at Wedbush from $220 to $248 on the news of their results on their NASH drug made an about-face today after reporting that Q4 and year numbers will be released on 2/28 and very simply collapsed.  The stock, $497 in early 2014, $280 the following month and then $484 again, and as low as $51 last year, is trading $99.03 – 18.54 (15.7%) and $33 (24%) from yesterday’s high.  Clearly, not for the faint of heart.  The other also doing work on NASH is MDGL $122.99 -11.26 (8.39%), and WMT giving back a major chunk of yesterday’s gain to close $99.82 -2.38 (2.33%).

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA was MIXED, with ICPT (see above) CELG -.29, BIIB -2.16, ABBV -.51, REGN +1.91, ISRG +1.48, MYL -.48, TEVA -.61, VRTX +.98, BCH +.28, INCY -.34 and IBB $111.13 - .28 (.25%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were MIXED TO HIGHER with TLRY +3.92 CGC -.11, CRON +.72, GWPH -4.29 (2.88%), ACB +.15, PYX +2.06 (8.3%), APHA +.39 (3.5%), NBEV +.02, and MJ $36.23 +.60 (1.68).

 

 

 

RETAIL was LOWER with WMT (see above), M -.29, JWN -.25, KSS -.79, DDS -.48, JCP -.02, HD -.79, TGT _.59, TJX -.07, RL -.12, UAA-.08, LULU +.55, NKE +.28, TPR -.73, CPRI -.38 and XRT $45.65 +.07 (.15%).

 

 

FAANG are MIXED to LOWER with GOOGL -5.92, AMZN -3.85, AAPL +1.01, FB +.11, NFLX -2.64, NVDA +2.36, TSLA -3.34, BABA +.82, BIDU -.50, IBM -.22, BOX +.08 and XLK $69.72 +.08 (.11%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER after yesterday’s rally to closing nearer the highs of the day with GS -.07, JPM +.25, BAC +.29, MS +.33, C +.25, PNC +1.57, AIG +.21, and XLF $26.63 +.16 (.60%).

 

 

HOME BUILDERS were LOWER across the board with the XHB $38.72 -.15 (.39%).

 

 

OIL, $57.16 +.71 We broke out above $50 and consolidated for the last 3 weeks between $50 and $54, with several dips to the $51 area to test.  Today’s move over $57 was a continuation of the breakout from late last week. As I said last week, “Oil looks a lot like a solid breakout over $55 is coming shortly.”  The area above $55 is not nearly as thick with supply as $50 was and I’d expect a move to $60 to be in the cards.  The stocks were HIGHER today with XLE $66.73 +.41 (.62%).

 

 

METALS, $1,347.90 + 3.10 As mentioned we were back to test the lows last week and fining on the highs, breaking out of the Bull Flag I pointed out both in comments and in my videos has taken place.  Last night I said that” it looks to me as if we have a shot at $1,350-60 now.”  Today’s high was $1,349.80 and tonight we are $7 lower.  We sold the balance of out GLD call position for well over 100% gains.  New Gold Video #65  https://youtu.be/sqZPmuPBqts 

 

That economic news has been helping Copper one day and hurting it the next.  I think that the break above the $2.85 level sets us on target of $3.00, but not without some consolidation.  Today we hit 2.9245 for a $ .17 move in just the last 3 days.  Remember that this commodity traded from a contract high over $3.31 in June to make a new contract low in just 5 weeks.  When it gets volatile, it rerally moves.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,935 unchanged After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several days going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.82 + .14 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 2/19/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading February 20th

 

GOLD & BONDS RALLY

WMT GAINS ON EARNINGS

 

Today started a bit lower on futures catch up from the day off yesterday.  It wasn’t much of a dip and it came back to up on the day before another dip down to test the lows and then move to + 75 before closing barely positive at +8.07 (.03%), Nasdaq +14.36 (.19%), S&P 500 +4.16 (.15%), the Russell +5.22 (.33%) and the DJ Transports +49.99 (.47%).  Market internals were actually stronger than you might expect with NYSE volume 1.8:1 and A/D 9:5 and NASDAQ 1.6:1 and 9:5 respectively.  Both markets had over 100 new highs.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  pre-open saw WMT +$3 on their earnings report.  The stock traded up to just over $4 after the open and was the bright spot early on the day adding about $28 Dow points while the majority of the other DJIA stocks were slightly lower.  It finished the day very near the lows @ $102.20 +2.21 (2.21%).  ICPT, mentioned here often, and on my Bio/Pharma sector list was +$23 on the positive results on their continuing trial for NASH, the cause of non-alcohol liver damage.  After trading $131.87 we spent some time backing and filling between the highs and $120 until 11:30 when it broke down to $115 and finished the day $117.57 +6.75 (6.09%). We also had some good news and price action in CTL.  The company cut its dividend last week and moved lower on the news, however, this link will take you to an article on Seeking Alpha:  https://seekingalpha.com/news/3434449-centurylink-plus-1_8-percent-holder-goes-activist-board-seat-capital-allocation#email_link that talks about a new holder of 6.2% and feels the company’s fiber assets are undervalued.  The stock started the day + .26 and moved up .65 by 12:00, finishing the day $14.10 +.36 (2.62%).  WTW was downgraded to underperform at JPM (a little late since the stock was already down from $96 in less than a year) and opened $27.84 -2.44 (8%) before moving higher off that low to finish $28.91 -1.37 (4.52%).  LPX announced it has entered into an agreement with GS to repurchase an additional $400MM of the common.  The company announced a $600MM purchase just last week and will receive the first 11.94million shares under that deal on 2/21 or approximately 80% of the initial funds.  It didn’t help the stock which got a bump last week from $24 to $27, but finished today $26.09 -.70 (2.61%).

 

 

BIO / PHARMA was MIXED, with ICPT (see above) the leader the rest of the group was more reflective of the overall market with CELG unchanged, BIIB +.13, ABBV -.35, REGN -3.37, MYL N+.26, TEVA +.10, VRTX -1.21, BCH +.08, INCY -.07 and IBB $111.39 -.66 (.59%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were MIXED TO LOWER with TLRY +.56, CGC -1.50, CRON +.31, GWPH-.23, ACB -.12, APHA +.10, NBEV -.19 and MJ $35.55 -.14 (.39%).

 

 

 

RETAIL was MIXED with WMT (see above) the leader early and casting some question over the late and very negative retail sales for December.  M +.38, JWN +.81, KSS +.31, DDS -.73 JCP +.02, HD -.27, TGT +1.16, TJX +.19, but the brands were weak with LULU _4.24 (2.81%), NKE -.98, TPR -.38, CPRI -.62 and only RL +.38 and UAA +.14.  XRT was $45.58 +.24 (.53%).

 

 

FAANG are MIXED to HIGHER with GOOGL +5.97, AMZN +19.05, AAPL +.58 FB -.21, NFLX +5.33, NVDA -.34, TSLA -1.28, BABA +4.00, BIDU +2.54, IBM +.63, BOX -.19 and XLK 69.64 +.02 (.03%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were MIXED today most down early and closing nearer the highs of the day with GS +.49, JPM -.37, BAC -.01, MS +.16, C +.08, PNC +.80, AIG +.68, and XLF $26.47 +.04 (.15%).

HOME BUILDERS were HIGHER across the board with the XHB $38.87 +.19 (.49%).

 

OIL, $56.45 +.50 We broke out above $50 and consolidated for the last 3 weeks between $50 and $54, with several dips to the $51 area to test.  Today’s move over $56 was a continuation of the breakout from late last week. As I said last week, “Oil looks a lot like a solid breakout over $55 is coming shortly.”  The area above $55 is not nearly as thick with supply as $50 was and I’d expect a move to $60 to be in the cards.  The stocks were MIXED today with XLE $66.32 +.20 (.30%).

 

METALS, $1,344.80 +22.70 As mentioned we were back to test the lows last week and fining on the highs, breaking out of the Bull Flag I pointed out both in comments and in my videos has taken place.  It looks to me as if we have a shot at $1,350-60 now.  We were long GLD 3/126 calls that we sold half of today up roughly 100%.

 

That economic news has been helping Copper one day and hurting it the next.  I think that the break above the $2.85 level sets us on target of $3.00, but not without as test of $2.82.  It’s hard to know how much of today’s strength was brought on by the move in the other metals.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,935 +370 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we have spent several days going sideways.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.68 +.49 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and it brings to mind an old adage, “never sell a quiet market after a decline.”  Looks like it worked here.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 2/14.2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading February 15th

 

AMAZON Backs Out of NY

A Win for The Radical Left ??

 

Today started up by about -236 based on the futures and negative Retail Sales numbers (delayed from shutdown) and extremely disappointing numbers from KO.  The KO news sent the stock down with its biggest decline in over a decade, down over 7%.  We rallied in the market back to down only -70 before another wave down to test the lows that got stuck -180 before turning back up to go slightly positive around 3:00 and back down to close about midrange - 104.69 (.41%), NASDAQ +6.57 (.09%), S&P 500 -7.32 (.27%), the Russell +2.16 (.14%), and the DJ Transports -6.17 (.06%).  Market internals on the NYSE were a non-event with volume 1:1 and A/D 15:13 while over on the NASDAQ volume was 1.7:1 and A/D 1:1.    

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  pre-open saw extremely poorly received numbers from KO.  While earnings were not the issue, declining revenues and poor guidance going forward sent the stock down for its worst day since 2006.  The stock traded as low as $45.50 before closing the day $45.59 -4.20 (8.44%), CSCO had good overnight strength from their earnings and opened $48.85 + 1.15, traded as high as $49.68 before closing on the low @ $48.40 +.90 (1.89%).  CYBR, reported and beat on all metrics with excellent guidance and opened $100.77 + $13.39 at a new all-time high and continued to $105 finishing $104.06 +17.68 (20.47%).  Just last week this one was $83.01, and this is in stark contrast to QLYS, also in cybersecurity, reported in this space just last night, poor results and a decline of just under 15%.  As I mentioned in last Sunday’s “Weekly Strategies,” this has turned into a “market of stocks,” requiring the need to do your homework.  SOLO, the wonder-stock, reported in this space last night with the follow-thru from yesterday’s move of $2.98 or 220% opened $5.67 and moved to another new high of $6.74 (traded Monday $1.25) and fell back to $4.81 +.48 (11.09%).  NVDA reported after the close and rallied from the NY close of $154.53 to a high of $168.90 and last traded at $163 +8.47.  CBS, after a miss both top and bottom, and a close of $49.10 fell to $47.58 and finished $47.85 – 1.25 citing increased expenses to compete in the streaming business.

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA was HIGHER, with TEVA continued to lose ground finishing -.28 (1.58%) while INCY was the percentage gainer +1.94 (2.39%) and IBB $110.21 +.46 (.42%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were MIXED TO LOWER with TLRY -.66, CGC was due to report tonight but I haven’t seen anything and is due to have a conference call tomorrow.  The stock was -.25, so I’m guessing there’s something to watch for tomorrow morning.  MJ was $34.90 -.03 (.09%).

 

 

 

RETAIL was LOWER after the dramatically disappointing December retail sales number.  Only WMT +.32 and UAA +.06 and DDS +.03 were the gainers.  XRT was $44.82 -.09 (.20%).

 

 

FAANG are MIXED to Lower with GOOGL -1.62, AMZN -20.45, AAPL -.48, FB -.67 NFLX +6.59, NVDA (see above) +9.62 (6.29%), TSLA -4.67, BABA -1.40, BIDU +.30, IBM -1.12, BOX +.04 and XLK $69.07 +.12 (.17%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER today with AIG the biggest loser with disappointing earnings -3.93 (8.9%), GS -2.20, JPM -.67, BAC -.38, MS -.58, C -.79 C -.79, PNC -.87 and XLF $25.88 -.32 (1.22%).

 

 

HOME BUILDERS were LOWER across the board with the XHB $38..29 -.07 (.18%).

 

 

OIL, $$54.41 +.51 We broke out above $50 and consolidated for the last 3 weeks between $50 and $54, with several dips to the $51 area to test.  Today’s action was a move over $54 (54.60) but pulled back again.  I stand by my comments from last night…Oil looks a lot like a solid breakout over $55 is coming shortly.  The area above $55 is not nearly as thick with supply as $50 was and I’d expect a move to $60 to be in the cards.  The stocks were HIGHER across the board with XLE $64.84 +.80 (1.25%).

 

 

METALS, $1,313.90 -1.20 As mentioned we are slightly overbought and I am looking for a pull-back but we moved higher again trading above $1,321 briefly but fell back to close with an unimpressive gain.

 

That economic news has been helping Copper one day and hurting it the next.  I think that the $2.85 area is a solid ceiling unless things in both EU and China get much better.  We tried that range several times last week and kept closing off those levels.  Today’s unchanged close puts it back in the “show me” stage.  Today’s inside, short range day didn’t change anything and I can see another test of $2.72 – 2.75 before any possible upside.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,565 -5 After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we spent a few days going sideways until the rally back over $4,250.   I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.08 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and I thought I’d have to sell the position but last week’s rally may have changed that trend.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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Call 617-827-1296.

After the close 2/13/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading February 14th

 

Happy Valentines Day

We’ll try to avoid a massacre

 

Today started up by about +190 based on the futures and their action based on favorable action for no government shutdown and some positive feedback on the China situation, AGAIN.  After about 90 minutes of just some backing and filling we slipped back from the highs +200 to make the lows, still +80 and then back to try the highs at 3:45 before a 15-minute selloff to close +117.51 (.46%).  NASDAQ was less impressive at +5.76 (.08%), S&P 500 +8.30 (.30%), the Russell outperformed +23.96 (1.58%) and the DJ Transports +51.70 (.49%).  Market internals were pretty much in line with the performance with NYSE volume 1.8:1 and A/D 2:1, NASDAQ was 3:2 on both measures.  Good numbers from CSCO will help NASDAQ futures and if we get any real news, not conjecture on the government staying open.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  pre-open saw a reversal in TEVA (after being the standout best percentage the last 2 days) on a miss in earnings and poor guidance going forward.  The stock, up from $17.88 to yesterdays close of $19.12 traded down to $16.56 – 2.83 (14.4%) in the premarket and spent the day working its way back to $17.63 _1.49 (7.79%), GRPN also missed and continued lower this morning to $3.31 -.64 (15.1%) before finishing the day at $3.52 - .44 (11.11%).  DISH reported and had much larger than expected subscriber losses as well as the ongoing issues with a blackout of HBO.  The stock had sustained a rally since late December from $23.30 to yesterday’s close of $31.26 about $2 at the open and continued lower to finish $28.86 -2.40 (7.68%).  TWLO beat top line ($.04) but gave poor guidance and the stock, public since 2016 at $15 has had a reasonably steady rise to a new all-time high just Monday at $119, opened $114.13 and then continued lower $105.60 (8%) before bouncing a bit to finish the day $106.87 – 8.42 (7.3%).  The results yielded several upgrades and higher price targets of from $90 -$100 up to $120, $125, and overweight rating with $130 target at BAC/ Merrill.

 

BAC/Merrill also downgraded DE, but it had little effect with the stock down only a touch over 1.1%.  QLYS, down yesterday and following thru today after a downgrade from JPM from neutral to underweight traded as low as $80.26 and closed $82.31 -14.10 (14.63%)

 

After the close we had numbers from CSCO which has had a nice rally after the Xmas eve debacle from $40.25 to close yesterday at $47.49, beat and the stock, lower on the day @ $47.50 popped over $49 on the news and finished $49.36 + 1.87 (3.9%).

 

CTL also reported, with the stock down $21.50 when it reported last quarter and after declining as low as $13.88 last week actually beat topline and was inline (missed revenues by literally $2,000 on $5.8Billion) but cut their dividend from $2.16 to $1.00 after consistently telling the street that the dividend was safe.  The stock jumped on the headline to $14.95 and then came the sellers when they printed the story.  We traded straight down to $12.25 and bounced around down there until 5:00 (now 5:12) when the conference call started and the stock has traded back to $13.78 now down less than $1.00.  I’ll update price before the Note goes out.  Closed $13.11 – 1.59 (10.8%).

 

Also on the downside for an earnings miss was FOSL, maker of “designer” watches for many firms (KORS as an example) was a very high flyer hitting $139.20 back in 2012, cut in half by midyear, back to $134.99 in 11/13 and then a steady erosion to close today $15.77 only to miss and fall to $12.80 and finish $13.23 -2.54 (16%).

 

Last, but not least, a new name for me, but hard to miss on the tape at $4.33 +2.98 was SOLO, a Canadian electric car company “Electrameccanica Vehicles Corp.” that held a “Virtual Investment Presentation” of their single person (SOLO) electric vehicle and the announcement or a two-seat roadster. The company originates in Vancouver, Canada.  That said, the stock continued higher in extended hours to trade $5.88 and finish $5.44 up an additional $1.11 for a move from yesterday’s $1.32.  They have wts. but they can’t be transferred until May of this year and have a strike price of $2.67.  They traded up from $ .29 to .95 +171%, and the extended hours close was $1.60.  They intend to deliver 5000 SOLO’s for $15,500 in 2019.  Not a bad plan, but the car has already failed to meet California standards.

 

 

BIO / PHARMA were LOWER, with TEVA (see above) was the biggest loser but the whole group was weak.  IBB finished $109.81 +.39 (.36&).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were HGHER with TLRY +1.08, CGC +2.15 (4.9%%), CRON +.58, GWPH +.97, ACB +.07, PYX -.75, NBEV +.21, APHA +.17 and MJ $34.93 +.53 (1.54%).

 

 

RETAIL was MIXED with the stores and the brands split.  M +.42, JWN -1.34, KSS +.68, DDS -.48, JCP +.08 (6.15%), WMT +.97, TGT +1.68, TJX +.33, RL -3.42, UAA -.44, LULU -2.05, NKE +.43 and XRT $44.91 +.02 (.04%).

 

 

FAANG are MIXED with GOOGL -1.18, AMZN -1.79, AAPL -1.24, FB -1.41, NFLX -7.97, NVDA +1.63, TSLA -4.61, BABA +.44, BIDU +3.57, IBM +1.11, BOX +.02 and XLK $68.95 +.09 (.13%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER today with GS + .14, JPM +.40, BAC unchanged, MS +.04, C +.32, PNC -1.67, AIG -.59 and XLF 26.20 +.07 (.27%).

 

 

HOME BUILDERS were LOWER across the board with the XHB $38.36 -.15 (.39%).

 

 

OIL, $53.90 +.80 We broke out above $50 and consolidated for the last 3 weeks between $50 and $54, with several dips to the $51 area to test.  Today’s action was a move over $54 (54.60) but pulled back again.  I stand by my comments from last night…Oil looks a lot like a solid breakout over $55 is coming shortly.  The area above $55 is not nearly as thick with supply as $50 was and I’d expect a move to $60 to be in the cards.  The stocks were HIGHER across the board with XLE $64.84 +.80 (1.25%).

 

 

METALS, $1,315.10 +1.10 As mentioned we are slightly overbought and I am looking for a pull-back but we moved higher again trading above $1,321 briefly but fell back to close with an unimpressive gain.

 

That economic news has been helping Copper one day and hurting it the next.  I think that the $2.85 area is a solid ceiling unless things in both EU and China get much better.  We tried that range several times last week and kept closing off those levels.  Today’s close of $2.7730 + .001 puts it back in the “show me” stage.  Today’s inside, short range day didn’t change anything and I can see another test of $2.72 – 2.75 before any possible upside.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,570 -35 unchanged. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we spent a few days going sideways until the rally back over $4,250.   I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.16 - .22 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and I thought I’d have to sell the position but last week’s rally may have changed that trend.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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Call 617-827-1296.

After the close 2/12/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading February 13th

 

A Solid Gain

Strong Internals

 

Today started up by about +200 based on the futures and their action based on favorable action for no government shutdown and some positive feedback on the China situation.  After about 90 minutes of just some backing and filling we took off again and after making another new high of the day we continued a steady march to touch the absolute high of day @ 25,458.98 +404.58 before spending the balance of the day going sideways to close 25,425.76 +372.65 (1.49%) edging out the recent recovery high of last week.  NASDAQ was +106.72 (1.46%), S&P 500 +34.93 (1.29%), the Russell +19.25 (1.27%) and the DJ Transports +140.82 (1.37%) after leading yesterday +1.25%. Market internals were strong with NYSE volume 3.5:1 and A/D 3:1, NASDAQ 3:1 and 2.5:1 respectively.  The NYSE edged out NASDAQ with 113 new highs and 13 lows vs. 77/13.  BTW, remember when today was Lincoln’s BD?

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  pre-open saw some follow-thru from VRNS which dis-

appointed yesterday and was swamped with downgrades and traded as low as $49.50 before finishing the day near the highs at $55.23 -$8.73 (13.65%).  SHOP also disappointed this morning and opened lower hitting $160.63 -12.54 before rallying to close up on the day @175.55 +2.38.  Amazing what a strong market will do to help out.  UAA beat slightly and gave somewhat disappointing guidance and traded lower by $1 premarket but by the time the conference call was over we had headed in the opposite direction and finished $22.21 +1.43 (6.88%). JLL handily beat and finished the day $166.15 +19.88 (13.59%).  The company, a developer of commercial properties has seen great growth.  TAP (Molson Coors) missed and was downgraded and after trading $67.24 a week ago closed $59.19 -6.17 (9.44%).  On the plus side, COTY which traded $6.06 just last week, saw JAB a private equity firm with interests in several “labels” took a 40% position and today announced a partial tender to take its stake to 60%, traded $11.36 and closed 10.87 +1.21 (12.53%).  In a continuing show of volatility, ATVI cut in half since October, traded up $1.56 during the day to close $41.67, then down on the earnings to $39.60 -2.07, then higher again to $43.72 and finished $42.82 + $1.15.  It kind of reminded me of a fullback running side to side across the entire field twice before gaining 3 yards.  Also reporting this afternoon were GRPN with a miss and trading down from its close at $3.96 (and looking pretty good on the chart) to $3.40 before finishing $3.49 - .47 (11.8%), TRIP with a miss and after closing $60.39 up to $64 down to $56.26 before settling $57.50 -2.89.  QLYS, cyber security and cloud services missed and after a steady rise this year from just under $70, closed the day $96.41 but fell as low as 81.10 finished extended hours trading $83.65 – 12.76 (13.2%).

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA were HIGHER, with TEVA again the biggest gainer +.64 (3.4%), CELG -1.32, BIIB +2.53, REGN +7.83, ISRG +10.25, MYL +.70, VRTX =2.48, BCH +.69, INCY +1.19, ICPT -6.14 (5.33%) and IBB $109.42 +1.08 (1.00%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were HGHER with PYX the start closing $22.90 +5.54 (31.91%) and all up 2% or more.  MJ $34,40 +.87 (2.59%)

 

 

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with the stores and the brands gaining.  M -.08, JWN +.61, KSS +1.33, DDS +1.15, WMT +.80, JCP + .03 (2.38%), TGT +.26, TJX +.26, RL +.66, UAA +1.57 and discussed on page 1, LULU +7.32 (4.89%), NKE +1.03, TPR +.85, CPRI -.02 and XRT $44.89 +.73 (1.65%).

 

 

FAANG are HIGHER with an upgrade for NFLX +14.69 (4.25%) GOOGL +26.38, AMZN +54 (3.39%), AAPL +2.07, FB -.29, NVDA +5.15, TSLA -2.34, BABA +1.65, BIDU +2.98, IBM +2.11, BOX +.71 and XLK $68.86 +.90 (1.32%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER today with GS +3.17, JPM +1.91, BAC +.31, MS +1.01, C +1.09, PNC +1.58, AIG +.95 and XLF $26.13 +.38 (1.48%).

 

 

HOME BUILDERS were MUCH HIGHER with TOL +1.65 (4.59%), KBH +1.50 (6.98%), PHM +.81 (3.06%), DHI +3.11 (8.42%), BZH +1.42 (11.96%), WLH +1.05 (7.54%), TMHC +.90 (4.77%), HD +2.38 (1.55%), MAS +.55 (1.52%) and XHB $38.51 +1.31 (3.52%).

 

 

OIL, $53.10 +.69 We broke out above $50 and consolidated for the last 3 weeks between $50 and $54, with several dips to the $51 area to test.  Today’s action was a a minor move lower followed by a strong move over $54 again and a close higher, again.  I stand by my comments from last night…Oil looks a lot like a solid breakout over $55 is coming shortly.  The area above $55 is not nearly as thick with supply as $50 was and I’d expect a move to $60 to be in the cards.  The stocks were HIGHER with XLE $64.04 +.80 (1.27%).

 

 

METALS, $1,314 +2.10 As mentioned we are slightly overbought and I am looking for a pull back and we GLD 3/126 calls @ $ .84 on Friday.  While we traded as low as $1,307 so the close was midrange.  I’m also looking at NEM for a trade.

 

That economic news has been helping Copper one day and hurting it the next.  I think that the $2.85 area is a solid ceiling unless things in both EU and China get much better.  We tried that range several times last week and kept closing off those levels.  Today’s close of $2.7720 -.080 puts it back in the “show me” stage.  I can see another test of $2.72 – 2.75 before any possible upside.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,605 unchanged. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we spent a few days going sideways until the rally back over $4,250.   I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.38 +.15 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and I thought I’d have to sell the position but last week’s rally may have changed that trend.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 2/11/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading February 12th

 

A Normal Day

Less than 1% Move

 

Today started up and made its high +95 and that was it for the rest of the day, and by 11:15 we were down 50 and stuck in a range that was broken to the downside about 2:00 and then just drifted to close -53.22 (.21%), NASDAQ and S&P 500 were a bit stronger all day with UNH and DIS depressing the Dow.  NASDAQ +9.70 (.13%), S&P 500 +1.92 (.07%), the Russell was the big winner +12.59 (.84%) after last week’s under-performing.  DJ Transports also were stronger than the DJIA finishing +127.42 (1.25%). Market internals were never negative from start to finish with the aforementioned UNH (-35 Dow points) and DIS (-15DP) really were almost all of the loss.  At the close the DJIA was split 15 / 15.  Market internals finished with NYSE volume 1.5:1 and A/D 2:1 while NASDAQ was 9:8 and 3:2 respectively.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  pre-open saw some follow-thru from NUVA on the news that it was holding talks with SNN on a possible combination, although there were no actual numbers discussed.  NUVA started up on Friday in extended hours and this morning it opened higher at $$56.52 +6.90 and traded as high as $58.19 before closing

$56.12 +6.57 (13.26%) while Smith and Nephew opened lower at $38.05 – 2.24 and finished $38.44 -1.75 (4.35%) near the high of the day.  NVDA got a downgrade from Bernstein that had little effect as the stock sent most of the day in a narrow range of $4.00 closing $146.45 -1.72 (1.16%).  Tesla got an upgrade from Canaccord Genuity and after opening +5.90 it too had a narrow range finishing $312.84 +7.04 (2.3%).

Also upgraded at BAC/Merrill was EA and after trading as high as $106.95 it closed on the low at $97.42 - .36 (.37%), but is now +$5.12 (5.24%), not for the weak of heart,-.10, JPM while CAR at Goldman which popped on the open to $27.66 + 1.98 and spent the day near there closing $27.58 +1.90 (7.4%).  After the close we had a beat for CHGG which after closing $34.80 traded as high as $38.90 and is currently $38.24 +3.44 (9.63%).  TGI was battleground stock today being downgraded at Cowen while BAC/Merrill gave it a double upgrade to buy from underperform and it closed $22.58 +.90 (4.15%) and up from $11.16 just 7 weeks ago at the turn of the year.  Also after the close VRNS beat and had in line revenues but gave below consensus going forward as it transitions from a license to subscription based model.  It is trading $51.75 -12.21 (19.09%).  Also an alert on ATVI which reports tomorrow disclosed job cuts and closed $40.11 -3.30 (7.6%).  In October the stock traded as high as $84.68, so regardless, it has been cut in half.

 

 

BIO / PHARMA were HIGHER, with TEVA the biggest gainer +.65 (3.57%), CELG +1.96, BIIB +1.75, ABBV -.28, REGN +1.65, ISRG +12.41 (2.4%), MYL +.57, VRTX +.19, BCH -.33, INCY -.66, ICPT -.40 and IBB $108.44 +.64 (.59%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were LOWER with TLRY -3.79, CGC -2.58, CRON -.25, GWPH -.91, ACB -.36, PYX -.02, NBEV -.18, APHA – 1.00 (10.6%), and MJ $33.50 -.83 (2.42%).

 

RETAIL was MIXED with the stores lower and the brands higher.  M-.07, JWN -.24, KSS -.49, DDS -.38, WMT +.77, HD -1.62, TGT -.87, TJX +.16, RL +.57, UAA -.02, LULU +1.17, NKE +1.24, TPR +.79, CPRI -.52, and XRT $44.16 +.24 (.55%).

 

 

FAANG are LOWER with all of my list in the red with the notable exception as mentioned above TLSA on its upgrade +6.65 (2.17%) with GOOGL -.26, AMZN -.74, AAPL -1.23, FB -1.78, NFLX -2.36, NVDA -2.14, BABA +.01, BIDU -2.40, IBM +.28, BOX +.18, and XLK $67.99 -.01 (.01%).

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER again today with GS -.10, JPM -.53, BAC +.13, MS -.55, C -.45, PNC +.33, AIG +.60, AIG +.60 and XLF $25.75 +.08 (.31%).

 

HOME BUILDERS were HIGHER with TOL -.40, KBH +.01, PHM -.11, LEN -.04, DHI +.04, BZH +.42, TMHC +.01, MAS +.33, and XHB $37.20 +.19 (.51%).

 

OIL, $52.41 - .31 We broke out above $50 and consolidated for the last 3 weeks between $50 and $54, with several dips to the $51 area to test.  Today’s action was a test of the $51 (51.23) before closing down only .31. I stand by my comments from last night…Oil looks a lot like a solid breakout over $55 is coming shortly.  The area above $55 is not nearly as thick with supply as $50 was and I’d expect a move to $60 to be in the cards.  The stocks were mixed with XLE $63.16 +.22 (.35%).

 

 

METALS, $1,311.90 -6.60 As mentioned we are slightly overbought and I am looking for a pull back and we GLD 3/126 calls @ $ .84 on Friday.  While we traded as low as $1,307 so the close was midrange.  I’m also looking at NEM for a trade.

 

That economic news has been helping Copper one day and hurting it the next.  I think that the $2.85 area is a solid ceiling unless things in both EU and China get much better.  We tried that range several times last week and kept closing off those levels.  Today’s close of $2.79 -.0205 puts it back in the “show me” stage.  I can see another test of $2.72 – 2.75 before any possible upside.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,605 -10. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we spent a few days going sideways until the rally back over $4,250.   I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.23 -.23 tonight.  The ranges were miniscule and I thought I’d have to sell the position but last week’s rally may have changed that trend.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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Call 617-827-1296.

After the close 2/7/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading February 7th

 

BAD NUMBERS FROM EU

NOT GREAT FOR PHARMA

 

Today started down from the start and just never recovered.  We had a rally from -392 back to -220, but that didn’t hold either.  News of the Tweeter-in-chief and comments about the lack of necessity of getting together with Xi before March 1 hurt across the board.  Not to be discounted, the news from the EU and China on economic growth slowing and even some QE hurt everyone’s expectations and stock prices.  There were also several earnings numbers that put in doubt our own economy since they were primarily retail based, showing either the state of the consumer’s pocketbook, or just poorly chosen merchandise offering.  Either way it was ugly for several.  The DJIA finished with a small rally to close about midrange - 220.77 (.87%), NASDAQ – 88.93 (1.18%), S&P 500 -25.56 (.94%), the Russell -12.39 (.82%) and the DJ Transports -31.83 (.31%).  Market internals were about what you would expect with both volume and A/D 2.5:1 down and NASDAQ with 2.5:1 volume but A/D only 1.8:1.  There were only 3 of 30 DJIA stock higher on the day, with the biggest losers, BA -28, GS -24, AAPL -22, MMM -18, and IBM -10.  Only KO, WMT, and TRV we higher.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  pre-open saw some follow-thru from last night with IRBT continuing higher after yesterday’s numbers and opening $101 +11.58 and continuing to a high of $104.05 and settling at $98.04 +8.62 (9.64%).  Last night ORLY missed on top line, reported inline revenues and guided below consensus for both the next quarter and FY, Unbelievable as it is to me, the stock immediately fell from $352.62 to $335, and in just 3 minutes moved back to $370.10 and this morning it opened $361.60 and finished the day $365.46 +11.84 (3.35). There was plenty of bad news around with SLDB, announcing that their new drug for DMD, a form of muscular dystrophy was not meeting expectations and it opened $6.00 -16.34 before ending the day $7.19 -15.15 (67.82%).  OSUR beat but gave poor guidance going forward and opened $9.73 – 3.08 (24%) and closed the day $9.63 -3.18 (24.82%).…  HAIN missed big reporting $ .14/share $ .12 below expectations and revenues of $584.2MM down from $613.15 estimate.  Already down from $44.37 last fall it had closed $17.79 and opened $14.75 and rallied to close near the high at $16.16 – 1.64 (9.2%).  GRUB missed its $ .28 estimate reporting just $ .19 as well as a small miss in revenues and opened $71.06 but after trading $66.62 (-$17.13) before recovering to close $82.20 -1.75 (2.08%).  TPR (formerly Coach) missed top and bottom and close $33.50 -5.81 (14.78%) and down from $54 last fall.  TWTR beat top and bottom also but guided near the low end of expectations and after trading $35.25 yesterday opened $31.17 and finished the day 30.80 -3.36 (9.84%).  DNKN beat top but missed revenues and guided towards the lower end of expectations and fell as low as $64.11 before moving back to close on the high of the day $66.79 -2.05 (2.98%).  There were a couple of bright spots with the merger of equals for BBT and STI and the street liked it rewarding both with STI closing $64.72 +5.98 and BBT $50.46 +1.93, both midrange.  The deal is worth $66 Billion.   In the cyber security space we had a split decision with FEYE with a surprise miss finishing $16.19 -2.23 (12.11%) but FTNT beat on earnings and revenue as well as guiding up for the year.  Even with those numbers the stock, +2.2% early finished $79.36 -1.86 (2.29%).  The other Pharma loser was BIIB, on the news from the US Patent office that MYL is likely to gain a patent for its MS drug.  BIIB finished the day $308.73 -24.51 (7.36%).

 

After the close we heard from MAT, whose surprise profit sent the stock higher by 13.67% to $14.05 +1.69, and SKX also with a beat and trading $32.48 +4.78 (17.26%), and EXPE with a beat $139 77 +11.43 (9.12%).

 

 

BIO / PHARMA were LOWER, with the BIIB new and fall of $24.14 (7,24%) and the market in general this was not the place to be.  My whole list with the exception of ABBV + .12, and $IBB $$107.20 -2.68 (2.44%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were HIGHER with TLRY +1.35, CGC +.22, CRON +1.46 (7.43%), GWPH -5.13, ACB +.20, PYX +.04, NBEV -.32, APHA -.13, and MJ $35.21 +.56 (1.62%).

 

RETAIL was LOWER with TPR -5.85 (14.88%) took most of these names lower with WMT (only 1 of 3 DJIA stocks higher today +1.09), M +.29, JWN +.30 and all the brands except LULU +1.89 (1.28%).  XRT $44.20 -.29 (.65%).

 

 

FAANG are LOWER with all of my list in the red, with GOOGL -17.64, AMZN -25.89, AAPL -3.19, FB -4.03, NFLX -7.64, NVDA -5.60, TSLA -9.82 (3.1%), BABA -4.62 BIDU 2.82, IBM -1.55, BOX -.62 and XLK $67.67 -.87 (1.27%)

 

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER again today with GS -3.99, JPM -1.44, BAC -.48, MS -.90, C -1.14, PNC +.23, AIG - .82, and XLF $25.84 -.22 (.84%).

 

 

HOME BUILDERS were HIGHER with MAS (materials) beat top line and gave good guidance and finished +2.27 (6.83%) and XHB $37.02 +.38 (1.04%).%).

 

OIL, $52.64 -1.37 We broke out above $50 and consolidated for the last 3 weeks between $50 and $54, with several dips to the $51 area to test.  Today’s action was a test of the $52 (51.80) before closing down. I stand by my comments from last night…Oil looks a lot like a solid breakout over $55 is coming shortly.  The area above $55 is not nearly as thick with supply as $50 was and I’d expect a move to $60 to be in the cards.  The stocks were lower with XLE $63.33 -1.33 (2.06%).

 

 

METALS, $1,314.20 -.20 As mentioned we are slightly overbought and I am looking for a pull back and we placed an order good until Friday to buy GLD 3/124 calls @ $1.05.  Unfortunately, the “pajama traders” were the only ones to take advantage of my expected move lower, hitting $1,306.40, which would have given us a long position had it happened during trading hours.  We will just have to watch for another spot to be buyers.

 

That economic news has been helping Copper which had been unable to sustain a rally above $2.72 -2.75 until Thursday.  Last night I said that we managed a break above recent highs with a close of $2.8170 + .0225 and today tested of $2.85 again and finished $2.8285 - .008.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $3,340 +5. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we spent a few days going sideways until the rally back over $4,250.   I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $3.87 tonight.  The ranges have gotten miniscule and I think I’m going to have to sell the position on any further weakness.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 2/6/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading February 7th

 

A GOOD DAY FOR SEMI’S

Not So Much For Gamers

 

 Today started without much fanfare and was just slightly higher with some good earnings from non-DJIA stocks but quickly sold off, if you can call 100 a selloff, and by 11:15 we were at the high of the day up a meager +36.  We then spent some time between -50 and +10 until we finished -21.22 (.06%), NASDAQ -26.80 (.36%), S&P 500 -6.09 (.22%), the Russell -2.21 (.15%) and DJ Transports -20.85 (.20%).  The market internals were pretty close to even with NYSE volume 5:3 down and A/D 1.3:1, while over on NASDAQ both were 1:1.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  pre-open saw some follow-thru from last night, the star being SNAP to a high of $9.09 +2.05 (29%) to close $8.56 +1.52 (21.59%).  Unfortunately, the gaming stocks took the EA miss last night increased its losses to the $80.21 -12.31 (13.3%) level and pulled ATVI and TTWO with it.  ATVI traded over $84 in October and even before today it was $47.84 and opened $45 -2.84 and continued lower all day to $41.96 before a small rally to close $43.00 -4.84%), while TTWO was pretty much in the same boat with a high of just under $140 to $107.29 and it opened $96.50, traded to 92.33, back to 97.24 before falling to a new low 91.49 and finished $92.53 -14.76 (13.76%).

 

The semi’s had a great day with SWKS had only inline earnings and revenues and then guided next quarter below consensus but powered higher anyway gapping open at $81.85 +5.89 and just continued higher to close $84.69 +8.73 (11.49%), MU raised $1.8 billion last night and followed with a gap up also to $40.40 + 1.03 and also continued up to close $41.52 +2.15 (5.46%) and MCHP beat on top and bottom lines and although it guided lower for next quarter, but on the call the CEO called a bottom for the group (he actually has a great record for calling the industry) the stock gapped up and moved higher to close $89.31 +6.07 (7.29%). The ETF, SMH, broke up to prices not seen since last October’s break to close $101.30 +2.45 (2.48%).

 

MGNX was the “HOME RUN” of the day after receiving “excellent” results on a new drug for Metastatic breast cancer and the stock, which traded $9.87 on Monday opened $29.37 and moved higher to $32.32 before falling back some to close $25.60 +14.49 (130.42%), not the 3X at the high, but I’m guessing none of the stockholders are complaining.  After the close IRBT reported a beat top and bottom with good guidance going forward and the stock, which closed $89.42 +.32 and is now trading $103 +13.58 (15.19%), but FEYE missed and is $17.05 -1.37 (7.44%), SONO was already having a bad day closing 12.37 - .80 (6%) and reported a solid beat on earnings and revenue, reaffirming guidance, but unfortunately they also reported that their CFO is leaving at first of the month.  The stock, already down from its November high of $17.77 moved lower and is now trading $10.95 -1.42 (11.42%) after making a low at $10.00.

 

Last, ORLY missed on top line, reported inline revenues and guided below consensus for both the next quarter and FY, Unbelievable as it is to me, the stock immediately fell from $352.62 to $335, and in just 3 minutes moved back to $370.10 and is now trading $366.60 + 13.98.  Just amazing… I know extended hours lack volume, and this one is thin to begin with but WOW.

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA were LOWER, with CELG -.01, BIIB -14.99 (3.44%) on an earnings miss, ABBV -.61, REGN -14.48 (3.44%), MYL -.11, TEVA -.72, VRTX -.68, BCH -.14, INCY +.02, ICPT -.97, and IBB $109.88 -.18 (.16%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were also LOWER with TLRY -5.21, CGC -2.89, CRON -2.47 (11.31%), GWPH -2.55, ACB -.32, PYX +.34, NBEV -.55 (7.49%), APHA -1.18 (11.11%), and MJ $34.50 -2.07 (5.66%).

 

RETAIL was LOWER with M -.61, JWN -.51, KSS -1.31, DDS -.16, JCP -.03, WMT +.04, TGT +.21, TJX -.39, RL +1.92, UAA -.53, LULU -1.04, NKE -.15, TPR +1.46, CPRI (formerly KORS) + $5.10 (11.71%) on earnings and rise in sales based on Versace acquisition, and XRT $44.49 +.29 (.65%).

 

 

FAANG are LOWER with GOOGL -28.87, AMZN -20.93, AAPL -.13, FB .81, NFLX 3.51, NVDA +2.67, TSLA -4.35, BABA -.34, BIDU -2.23, IBM +.74, BOX -.15, and XLK $68.54 +.23 (.34%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER again today with GS -1.35, JPM +.07, BAC -.08, MS -.05, C +.02, PNC +.07, AIG -.01, and XLF $26.06 -.03 (.11%).

 

 

HOME BUILDERS were LOWER across the board with XHB $36.64 -.38 (1.03%).

 

OIL, $54.01 + .35 We broke out above $50 and consolidated for the last 3 weeks between $50 and $54, with several dips to the $51 area to test.  Today’s action was a test of the $53 (52.86) before closing higher. I stand by my comments from last night…Oil looks a lot like a solid breakout over $55 is coming shortly.  The area above $55 is not nearly as thick with supply as $50 was and I’d expect a move to $60 to be in the cards.  The stocks were lower with XLE $64.56 -.48 (.74%).

 

 

METALS, $1,314.40 -4.80 As mentioned we are slightly overbought and I am looking for a pull back and we placed an order good until Friday to buy GLD 3/124 calls @ $1.05.  The gold is trading – 3.70 tonight and I think our order is placed at a point at which we will have a solid risk profile.

 

That economic news has been helping Copper which had been unable to sustain a rally above $2.72 -2.75 until Thursday.  Last night I said that we managed a break above recent highs with a close of $2.8170 + .0225 and today tested of $2.85 in today and finished $2.8365 +.0195.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $3,340 - 60. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we spent a few days going sideways until the rally back over $4,250.   I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $3.90 tonight.  The ranges have gotten miniscule and I think I’m going to have to sell the position on any further weakness.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 2/5/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading February 6th

 

A GOOD DAY!!

State of the Union (-362 last year)

 

Today started without much fanfare and was just slightly higher with some good earnings from non-DJIA stocks and BA trading +$4 adding about 25 to the Dow.  We had several good earnings reports and by 11:15 we had managed to climb to the high of the day +185 or so, and by 1:15 we had made the low of the day +87 followed by another slow but steady move higher again to close + 172.15 (.68%), NASDAQ +54.54 (.74%), S&P 500 +12.83 (.47%), the Russell was the weak sister +2.69 (.18%) and DJ Transports +44.33 (.40%).  Market internals, even at the low end of the gains was a pretty solid 1.5:1 up and that’s how it ended for NYSE volume but A/D was 1.7:1, and NASDAQ was just a shade weaker at volume 4:3 and A/D 1.4:1.  All in all, for a 5th day up in the S&P and NASDAQ and 4th day up in the Dow, not a bad showing.  The DJIA leaders were BA 89 Dow points, AAPL 19.87, UTX and MSFT both +10, with only one double digit loss for UNH – 11.73.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  pre-open saw EL beat and move higher early and gapping up to $149.25 and then continue to close $157 before closing $152.02 +15.85 (11.64%).  RL followed along with good numbers and it too gapped higher to $122.67 before moving up to 128.65 and closing $124.17 + 9.62 (8.4%).  ARRY beat and finished $20.96 +2.07 (10.96%) and well off its Xmas eve low of $13.06.  EOLS received a new drug approval was up from $16.02 Monday to close yesterday $20.50 +2.17 continued today to trade $26.37 and finish $25.83 +5.33 (26%) and + 10.57 or just 68% for the week.

 

It wasn’t all blue skies and lollipops, with a miss for CHD, down from 68.75 just last month and gapping down today to finish $60.46 -4.91 (7.51%), CVCO reported and I tried to read the report but there was so many special charges and tax issues, as well as charges from an SEC settlement that I couldn’t get a handle on it all.  The market felt the same way and its high Friday was $171 and it closed today $134.37 – 26.92 (16.69% today and 21% for the week).  CTRL also missed and finished the day $17.35 – 3.88 (18.28%), and ROLL, a ball bearing industrial beat by $.01but missed on revenues and fell from Monday’s high of $142 to close today $131.47 – 9.33 (6.63%).

 

After the close we had earnings from DIS with a nice beat and after closing $112.66 +.86 it has already traded $115.24 and is $113.66 +1.05 (1.2%).  SNAP had a big surprise beat and is currently $8.30 +1.26 (18.47%) with some obvious short covering.  EA missed and is dramatically lower at $81.99 – 10.53 (11.38%).  SFLY beat by $ .06 with in line guidance, however they also announced a “review” committee, the CEO leaving, and that they had been approached by a third party for acquisition, but no proposals have occurred.  The stock which traded $100.34 last summer and as low as $39.25 tonight is currently $42.07 -3.15 (6.9%).  

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA were MOSTLY HIGHER, with CELG +.33, BIIB +2.92, ABBV +.97 REGN -4.36, MYL +.25, ISRG +.46, TEVA +.23, VRTX +3.93, INCY -.20, ICPT -.33, and IBB $110.00 -.24 (.22%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were LOWER with TLRY -.87, CGC -1.29, CRON -1.54, GWPH -.09, ACB -.14, PYX -1.00, NBEV +.06, APHA -.32 and MJ $36.47 -.80 (2.15%).

 

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with the brands outperforming.  M +.09, JWN +.80, KSS +1.03, DDS +.49, JCP -.01, WMT +.73, HD -.07, TGT +.56, TJX +.23, RL +9.61 (839%), UAA unch., LULU +.25, NKE +.62, TPR +.63, CPRI +1.18 and XRT 44.71 +.39 (.88%).

 

 

FAANG are HIGHER with GOOGL recovering and closing near the high of the day $1151 +9.58, AMZN +24.69, AAPL +2.58, FB +1.53, NFLX +2.96, NVDA +.69, TSLA +8.36, BABA +4.69, BIDU +2.29, IBM +.36, BOX +1.83 (8.48%) on an upgrade, and XLK $68.32 +.58 (.86%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER again today with GS +.43, JPM -.49, BAC -.12, MS -.15, PNC -1.61, C -.29, AIG -.20, and XLF $26.09 -.07 (27%).

 

 

HOME BUILDERS were MOSTLY HIGHER with TOL +.47, KBH +.31, PHM +.56, LEN -.23, DHI +.62, BZH -.49, WLH +.53, TMHC +.31, HD -.23, MAS -.24, and XHB $37.02 +.20 (.54%).

 

 

 

OIL, $53.66 - .90 We broke out above $50 and consolidated for the last 3 weeks between $50 and $54, with several dips to the $51 area to test.  Today’s action was a short range “inside” day. I stand by my comments from last night…Oil looks a lot like a solid breakout over $55 is coming shortly.  The area above $55 is not nearly as thick with supply as $50 was and I’d expect a move to $60 to be in the cards.  The stocks were lower with the lower oil, with the notable exception of XOM +.75, VLO +1.75 and the XLE finished $65.14 +.10 (.15%).

 

 

METALS, $1,319.20 - .10 As mentioned Thursday night, we rolled forward to the April contract of Gold, and the contract high on this one was today at $1,331.10.  Since then we have pulled back to a low at $1,312.70.  Resistance between $1,325 and $1,350 is formidable and I don’t think that we will continue higher unabated through this supply.  I’d also be surprised if we went back thru $1,300 anytime soon.

 

That economic news has been helping Copper which had been unable to sustain a rally above $2.72 -2.75 until Thursday.  We managed a break above recent highs with a close of $2.8170 + .0225 today that sets up a test of $2.85 in coming days

 

 

BITCOIN closed $3,400 + 5. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we spent a few days going sideways until the rally back over $4,250.   I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $3.90 tonight.  The ranges have gotten miniscule and I think I’m going to have to sell the position on any further weakness.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 2/4/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading February 5th

 

 

A NORMAL DAY!!

GOOGL, GILD, & STX REPORT

 

Today started without much fanfare either from news or future driven gains.  After spending just a few minutes below 25,000 (Dow) we started back up.  Around noon we went positive and stayed there for the rest of the day and quietly drifted higher until the last 15 minutes when we went up from + 95 to the close at + 175.40 (.70%), NASDAQ was out performing from the start and closed +8367 (1.15%), S&P 500 +18.34 (.68%), the Russell +15.40 (1.03%), and the DJ Transports + 84.62 (.84%).  There were more down early, but buy noon the volume had reversed on the NYSE and finished with both volume and A/D at a healthy 2:1 up.  NASDAQ was never negative (a few more down than up early) and finished with volume and A/D at 2.2:1 at the close.  The big gainers for the DJIA were BA +65, AAPL +32, MSFT +20, and HD +14, and the biggest loser was XOM -7.50.

 

  

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  pre-open saw CLX beat and give solid guidance and after closing @ 1`49.96 it opened $156 and then traded as high as $161.35 and finished 158.38 +8.52 (5.69%) having its best day since 2014.  Another name in the news was MXWL was up pre-market too, on the news it is being bought by TSLA for $4.75, and closed the day $4.59 +1.52 (49%).Starboard reported taking positions in BMY and PZZA sending both up with PZZA (closed Friday around $38) opened $41.39 and moved higher but closed $41.97 + 3.46 (8.9%).  To manage that $200MM investment Jeffrey Smith is Chairman.  Ultimate Software received a cash bid of $331.50 / share, $11Billion from Hellman & Friedman, a private equity group.  It allows for a 50 day “go-shop” period to see if there are any better offers.  The stock closed $332.54 +54.71 (19.69%) but there may be another offer from somewhere since not only did we close over the bid, but the stock also traded as high as $365.86 and in fact, never traded under the bid price.

 

After the close we had earnings from GOOGL, and even with a bet top and bottom line, the stock, which closed $1,114.42 +22.80 started up to $1,178 before it fell back to $1097 it is now trading in extended hours at $1,104 -14.62 (1.3%).  The call is going on as we speak.  STX beat but missed on revenues and gave good guidance traded 48.22 + about 3 before reversing and hitting $41.57 and is currently $42.99 – 2.57, GILD also reported a miss on earnings and a miss on revenues and gave so-so guidance, but raised their dividend (for what,? optics) and after closing $70.05 it is now $67.41 -2.64 (3.77%).

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA were MOSTLY LOWER, with CELG -2.10, BIIB +3.16, ABBV -2.24, REGN -4.75, ISRG -2.22, MYL +.07, TEVA +.05, VRTX -3.64, BCH +.38, INCY -1.32, ICPT +3.35, and IBB $109.90 -.37 (.34%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were HIGHER with TLRY +1.99, CGC +.87, CRON +2.74 (13.17%), GWPH +.45, ACB +.85, PYX +2.41 (16.24%), NBEV +.17, APHA +1.69 (17.57%), and MJ $37.65 +1.79 (4.99%).

 

 

RETAIL was MIXED TO HIGHER with M +.14, JWN +.32, KSS +.11, DDS +1.17, WMT +.75, HD +2.05, TGT +1.,27, TJX +.09, and the brands RL -1.88, UAA +.07, LULU -.52, NKE +.48, TPR -.15, CPRI -.08, and XRT +.48 (1.09%).

 

 

FAANG are HIGHER with the exception of GOOGL, as mentioned above, AMZN +3.77, AAPL +4.58, FB +2.84, NFLX +10.19, NVDA +3.87, TSLA +.09, BABA -1.24, BIDU +2.26, IBM +.70, BOX +.18 and XLK +.68 (1.02%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.18, JPM +.37, BAC +.45, MS +.54, C +.38, PNC 1.90, AIG +.17, and XLF 26.18 +.13 (.50%).

 

 

HOME BUILDERS were MOSTLY LOWER with BZH reported earnings and gave okay guidance and backlog closed $13.04 +.14, and up from $10.77 just 4 days ago traded $12.52 - .52 (4%), and XHB $36.82 +.23 (.63%).

 

OIL, $54.56 -.70 We broke out above $50 and consolidated for the last 3 weeks between $50 and $54, with several dips to the $51 area to test.  Today’s action was another test over $55 (55.75) before closing midrange. I stand by my comments from last night…Oil looks a lot like a solid breakout over $55 is coming shortly.  The area above $55 is not nearly as thick with supply as $50 was and I’d expect a move to $60 to be in the cards.  The stocks were higher even with the lower oil, with the notable exception of OXY - .30 and XOM -1.15, and the XLE finished $65.04 +.15 (.23%).

 

 

METALS, $1,319.30 -2.80 As mentioned Thursday night, we rolled forward to the April contract of Gold, and the contract high on this one was today at $1,331.10.  Since then we have pulled back to today’s low at $1,312.70.  Resistance between $1,325 and $1,350 is formidable and I don’t think that we will continue higher unabated through this supply.  I’d also be surprised if we went back thru $1,300 anytime soon.

 

That economic slowdown is hurting Copper which had been unable to sustain a rally above $2.72 -2.75 until Thursday.  We managed a break above recent highs with a close of $2.7945 +.0215 today that sets up a test of $2.80 in coming days

 

 

BITCOIN closed $3,395 -15. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we spent a few days going sideways until the rally back over $4,250.   I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $3.96 tonight.  The ranges have gotten miniscule and I think I’m going to have to sell the position on any further weakness.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 1/31/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading February 1st

 

DWDP, GE, DECK, MA, AMZN

SPLIT PERSONALITY

 

Today started the market down on the weakness in DWDP, with a miss on revenues, currency issues and the fact that after the merger of these two giant, nobody can wait for them to be split up again.  It was down in the premarket and along with GS has the DJIA lower by about 100.  By 9:45 we had already made the low -172 and started back up.  The NASDAQ and S&P 500 never had the selloff and were higher after a minor drop at the open.  After being up for a while we closed -15.19 (.06%), NASDAQ +98.66 (1.37%) S&P 500 +23.05 (.86%), the Russell +12.48 (.84%), and DJ Transports -19.33 (.19%).  Market internals were strong with NYSE volume 1.8:1 and A/D 2:1, NASDAQ also 1.8:1 volume and 2:1 A/D, but NYSE had 133 new highs and only 7 lows while NASDAQ was 76 and 27.  Dow stocks were 19 up, 11 down.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  As mentioned above DWDP was a drag for 40 DJIA points finishing only .15 off the low -5.47 (9.23%), GS -4.47 (2.21%) and 30 Dow points.  Other news / earnings -- MA beat and was +7.11 (3.84%), VLO beat and was +4.54 (5.45%) even though oil reversed and closed lower.  Cheap and plentiful crude helped this refiner, that we traded early in the month based on its flexibility to produce the entire array of product, X missed although it opened lower and traded below $20 before moving back up and finished $22.54 +.32 (1.44%), GE reported and everyone was impressed with their revenues and it gapped up and traded $10.77 before falling back a bit to close $10.16 +1.06 (11.65%).  DECK, maker of UGGs reported a beat after the close and after closing $128.45 +1.32, traded $142.50 before currently $133.48 +another $5.  Another footwear company, SKX was halted for volatility when it traded from $26.12 to $30.56 on no news and reopened and fell back and finished @ $27.86 + .70 on the day with no real news.

 

Last but clearly not least, AMZN reported a beat of $ .37 at $6.04 and a slight beat in revenues, but on the conference call gave some weak forward guidance on margins.  The stock was $1,718.73 +48.30 and traded up to $1778 but faltered during the call and was $1,635 – 83.73 (4.8%).

 

 

BIO / PHARMA were MOSTLY HIGHER, with CELG +.19, BIIB +6.63 (2.02%), ABBV -1.06, REGN +10.09 (2.4%), ISRG +15.57 (3.06%), MYL -.81, TEVA -.25, VRTX +4.35 (2.33%), BCH +.31, INCY +.61, ICPT +4.52 (3.89%) and IBB $109.40 +1.20 (1.11%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were HIGHER with TLRY +2.57, CGC +.90, CRON +1.49 (8.08%), GWPH +2.56, ACB +.18, PYX +1.22 (7.86%), NBEV +.06, APHA +1.05 (13.7%), and MJ $35.30 +1.49 (4.41%).

 

RETAIL was MIXED TO HIGHER with M +.53, JWN +1.09, KSS _.11, DDS - .15, JCP +.03, WMT +1.38, TGT +.71, TJX +.67(we added to the TJX 2/50 calls @ $ .35 to .40 and they closed .60 +.20 today, new average is $ .48).  The brands were mixed with RL -.81, UAA -.18, LULU -.32, NKE +.72, TPR +.68, CPRI -.42 and XRT $44.16 +.08 (.18%).

 

FAANG are HIGHER with AMZN (above) the big loser @ $1,635 -35.43, GOOGL +21.91, AAPL +1.47, FB +15.93 (10.6%), NFLX -2.73, NVDA +5.81, TSLA -3.87, BABA +1.08, BIDU +3.29, IBM +.32, BOX +.55 and XLK 66.15 -.20 (.39%).

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -4.38, JPM -.81, BAC -.67, MS -.27, C +.23, PNC +.23, AIG +.42 and XLF $25.94 -.04 (.15%).

 

HOME BUILDERS were HIGHER with XHB $36.53 +.50 (1.39%).

 

OIL, $53.79 - .44 We broke out above $50 and consolidated for the last 3 weeks between $50 and $54, with several dips to the $51 area to test.  Today’s action with a high of $55.37 showed how much supply (resistance) is just over $55. I stand by my comments from last night…Oil looks a lot like a breakout over $55 is coming shortly.  The area above $55 is not nearly as thick with supply as $50 was and I’d expect a move to $60 to be in the cards.  The stocks were mixed to higher led by VLO on its earning, mentioned above, +4.67 (5.61%) and XLE $63.84 +.47 (.74%).

 

METALS, $1,325.20 + 9.70 As mentioned last night we rolled forward to the April contract of Gold, and the contract high on this one was today’s high at $1,331.10.  Resistance between $1,325 and $1,350 is formidable and I don’t think that we will continue higher unabated through this supply.  I’d also be surprised if we went back thru $1,300 anytime soon.

 

That economic slowdown is hurting Copper which had been unable to sustain a rally above $2.72 -2.75 until today.  We managed a break above recent highs with a close of $2.7675 + .0425 last nights and that sets up a test of $2.80 in coming days, and today we hit $2.7970 before the close at $2.7845 +.017.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,395 -15. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we spent a few days going sideways until last week when we ran back to the point of breakdown from 12/5.  Since then we have moved as high as $4,265, pulling back to test the most recent support around $3,650.  AFTER A YEAR BEING A VORACIOUS BEAR, I MAY BE LOOKING AT THE LONG SIDE HERE FOR A TRADE.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $3.99 tonight.  I will be a seller tomorrow if we don’t bounce higher.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 1/30/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading January 31st

 

BA, AAPL, MCD, FB,

AND THE FED

 

Today started the market up on the good numbers from BA and AAPL got us an up 275 or so and it was off to the races.  At the open just BA and AAPL were up the equivalent of 160 and 60 respectively.  It looked like we might sell off with only those two stars shining, but the rest of the market picked up and we went sideways to lower until the FED statement and the 2:00 PM – 2:15 bar on the DJIA was from 24,800 to 25,000 +168, and then higher to 25,109 high of the day before closing +434.90 (1.77%), NASDAQ +154.79 (2.20%), S&P 500 +41.05 (1.55%), and DJ Transports +111.38 (1.12%).  Market internals were strong with NYSE volume and A/D both 4:1 and NASDAQ 3.8 and 2.5:1 respectively.  Of the 30 DJIA stocks we were 27 Up 3 Down, with AAPL +72, BA +155 contributing the biggest gains.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  Last night I reported the AAPL numbers but the move last night was only $5 higher and today it finished +10.72 (6.93%).  The BA was the major gainer finishing $+22.81 (6.25%), MCD was light on revenues and their international exposure took a bit of the wind out of its sails but after trading both down $2 and Up 4 closed $181.77 - .40.  It wasn’t all roses and lollipops if you owned TUP (Tupperware) which reported and blamed China for their miss.  The stock, down from last year’s high over $74 gapped lower to $30.75 and finished the day $27.67 -10.46 (27.4%) their worst day in history.  After the close we had some more big news with FB with their biggest profit ever and after closing $150.42 +6.23 it ran straight up to $169.68 and right now we are trading $167.50 +23.32 (16.7%).

 

BIO / PHARMA were HIGHER, with the only exception being BIIB -6.62 (1.98%) on a miss on revenues, CELG +.45, ABBV +1.65, REGN +2.76, ISRG +13.75 (2.8%), MYL +1.99, TEVA +.25, VRTX +.67, BCH +.55, INCY +.69, ICPT +3.81 (3.39%) and IBB $108.20 +.73 (.68%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were HIGHER with only TLRY -1.47, CGC +.57, CRON +.37, GWPH +5.08 93.74%), ACB +.04, PYX +3.21 (26%), NBEV +.18, APHA +.38, and MJ $34.00 +.77 (2.32%).

 

RETAIL was MIXED TO LOWER with M -.04, JWN -.67, KSS -.48, DDS +.06, JCP -.02, WMT -1.86, TGT +.63, TJX +.25, (we added to the TJX 2/50 calls @ $ .35 to .40 and they closed .40 today, new average is $ .48).  The brands were higher with RL +.80, UAA +.03, LULU -.34, NKE +1.08, TPR +.59, CPRI +.07 and XRT $44.08 +.17 (.39%).

 

FAANG are HIGHER with GOOGL +44.44 (4.15%), AMZN +96.12 (6.03%), AAPL +10.77 (6.96%), FB +24.11 (16.72%), NFLX +12.55 (3.82%), NVDA +5.83 (4.43%), TSLA +6.04 (2.03%) giving up part of its $11 gain after earnings, BABA +10.13 (6.46%), BIDU +4.72 (2.86%), INM +.57, BOX N+.64 (3.24%) AND XLK $66.30 +1.95 (3.03%).

 

FINANCIALS were MIXED TO HIGHER with GS +1.98, JPM +.24, BAC -.25, MS +.60, C +1.13, PNC -.57, AIG +.55 and XLF $25.97 +.17 (.66%).

 

HOME BUILDERS were HIGHER with TOL +.24, KBH +.12, PHM +.02, LEN +.45, DHI +.91, BZH +.06 and XHB $36.03 +.29 (.81%).

 

OIL, $54.23 +.92 We broke out above $50 and consolidated for the last 3 weeks between $50 and $54, with several dips to the $51 area to test.  Today’s action with a high of $54.93 looks a lot like a breakout over $55 is coming shortly.  The area above $55 is not nearly as thick with supply as $50 was and I’d expect a move to $60 to be in the cards.  All of the oil stocks on my list were higher, but the focus on technology to definitely took most of the buying power in the market.  XLE closed $63.37 +.88 (1.41%).

 

METALS, $1,309.90 +1.00 After making a new high at $1,300.40 recently but closing lower that day.  We have had a sideways market since and worked our way into a pennant, which we fell out of on Friday, but my video in the Weekly Strategies Sunday night called for a rally off the uptrend line.  Friday was a great move back above the $1,300.40 and today we made another new high @ $1,310.80.  BECAUSE FUTURES ARE CONTRACTS FOR DELIVERY, THEY “ROLL” FORWARD EVERY MONTH.  TOMORROW I WILL START TO USE THE APRIL DELIVERY OF GOLD AND IT IS QUOTED ROUGHLY $10.00 HIGHER.

 

That economic slowdown is hurting Copper which had been unable to sustain a rally above $2.72 -2.75 until today.  We managed a break above recent highs with a close of $2.7675 + .0425, that sets up a test of $2.80 in coming days, IF economic numbers continue higher.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,400 +40. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we spent a few days going sideways until last week when we ran back to the point of breakdown from 12/5.  Since then we have moved as high as $4,265, pulling back to test the most recent support around $3,650.  AFTER A YEAR BEING A VORACIOUS BEAR, I MAY BE LOOKING AT THE LONG SIDE HERE FOR A TRADE.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.06 tonight.  I will be a seller tomorrow if we don’t bounce higher.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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.

After the close 1/29/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading January 30th

 

AAPL & MMM

WHR Surprise Reversal

 

Today started the market up on the good numbers from MMM and general good feeling about the fact that we didn’t close lower yesterday, when in the past, -400 has led to a cascade lower.  However, it was a split affair today with the DJIA finishing +51.74 (.21%) while NASDAQ was -57.39 (.81%), S&P 500 -3.85 (.15%), the Russell -2.09 (.14%) and the DJ Transports +5.69 (.06%).  The internals were just as you would expect from a barely unchanged day with NYSE volume 1.3:1 positive and 4:3 A/D while NASDAQ was 2:1 DOWN volume and 3:4 A/D.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  Last night I reported the “lower than expected” report, but a strange thing happened this morning when after the stock opened $117.94 – 6.52 or about 5% lower, but my 10:00AM we were up on the day and continued higher to close $136.52 +12.05 (9.69%), after the street heard what was great forward guidance.  MMM beat both top and bottom line and traded $199.89 +6.69 but spent the rest of the day going sideways to lower and finishing $196.93 +3.73 (1.93%).  HOG missed and gave some unfriendly comps of an aging ridership hear in the US, but told the story about an electric bike and looking at growth outside the US.  HOG finished $34.75 -1.86 (5.08%).  PFE beat top and bottom lines, and although many said their new product pipeline is weak, it still moved higher to close $40.78 +1.25 (3.16%) and right near its high of the day.  GME (Gamestop) announced that they were giving up the search for a buyer, and the stock, a sorry looking chart from $47 in late 2015 to yesterday’s close of $15.50, gapped down on the news and finished $11.28-4.22 (27.23%).  AMD reported inline earnings but missed on revenues and gave lukewarm guidance.  The stock has trading both lower and then higher to around $20.69 and is 19.90 +.65, but was $22 3 days ago, so a bounce on “no terrible” numbers isn’t too surprising.  AMGN missed and gave poor guidance and it had closed 192.11 but was trading as low as $184.46 and the last was $185.10 -6.94 (3.61%). EBAY beat top and bottom and in answer to Elliot Management’s push announced increased dividend and buyback.

 

And now, for what everyone really is waiting for, AAPL reported a beat on earnings @ $4.18 vs. $4.17 expected with a slight miss on revenues with conservative Q2 guidance.  Services revenues were right at expectations and wearable revenues were also a touch light.  This is the first report since they guided lower earlier this month without the breakdown of units sold and the breakdown on margins.  Questions about content generation or acquisitions wasn’t discussed.  The stock was trading $163.19 +6.89 (4.41%).  And naturally all of the teleprompter readers and fund managers are looking for the all of the information that isn’t there, and of course they all think the stock is cheap.  They just have to have both sides so that when something happens they can say “I told you.”  It’s like the lawyer who lays out the worst case scenario so he can be a hero later on.

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA were HIGHER, with CELG +.04, BIIB +4.47, ABBV +.33, REGN +3.20, ISRG -2.48, MYL +.24, TEVA -.05, VRTX -2.08, BCH +.32, INCY -1.37, ICPT -3.44, and IBB $106.80 -.46 (.43%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were LOWER with most of yesterday’s gains erased.  TLRY -3.09, CGC -3.32, CRON -.40, GWPH -2.20, ACB -.21, PYX -.27, NBEV -.22, APHA -.07 and MJ $33.25 -.55 (1.63%).

 

 

RETAIL was LOWER with M +.21, JWN -1.02, KSS -1.27, DDS -.32, JCP -.02, WMT -.01, TGT -.27, TJX +.09 (we added to the TJX 2/50 calls @ $ .35 to .40 and they closed .32 today, new average is $ .48).  The brands were also lower with RL +1.05, UAA -.45, LULU - .65, NKE + .18, TPR -.09, CPRI +.28 and XRT $43.91 -.63 (1.41%).

 

 

FAANG are LOWER with the exception of AAPL +6.93 (4.43%) and TSLA +1.91 (.64%), GOOGL -5.85, AMZN -29.39, FB -2.19, NFLX -4.91 (1.46%), NVDA -4.23 (3.06%), BABA -.62, BIDU -1.95, BOX -.49 and XLK $65.07 +.02 (.03%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were MIXED with GS +.80, JPM +.19, BAC -.18, MS -.15, C -.57, PNC -.54, AIG -.56 and XLF $25.89 -.03 (.12%).

 

HOME BUILDERS with TOL -.19, KBH +.37, PHM +.37, LEN +1.43, DHI +.29, BZH +.17, WLH +.22, TMHC +.39, HD +.17, MAS +.12, and XHB $35.74 +.39 (1.1%).

 

OIL, $53.31 +1.32 We broke out above $50 and moved as high as $53.64 last week before backing off a bit, but we also tested $51.84 today and that held.  I’m impressed with this move BUT, this area ($55) is where we broke down on 11/20/18 on our way back to $42.50.  This is the most important area on this chart since we broke down from $76.  I would favor some consolidation or at least some fundamental new that there is an increase in demand, but I honestly don’t see that in the cards short term.  I’ll probably stand aside and see what develops.  The stocks were mostly higher with XLE closing $62.49 +.19 (.30%). (1.19%).

 

METALS, $1,308.90 +5.80 After making a new high at $1,300.40 recently but closing lower that day.  We have had a sideways market since and worked our way into a pennant, which we fell out of on Friday, but my video in the Weekly Strategies Sunday night called for a rally off the uptrend line.  Friday was a great move back above the $1,300.40 and today we made another new high @ $1,310.80.  (we bought the GLD 2/122 calls @ $ .91 and sold half @ $1.65 or so and we sold the balance today at $2.31)

 

That economic slowdown is hurting Copper which has been unable to sustain a rally above $2.72 -2.75 and has been probing the support at $2.65 on an almost daily basis.  Last Thursday’s break of not only $2.60, but $2.55 did more technical damage. We rallied back to a high of $2.68 last week but we are unable to hold the gains and today’s.  close of $2.7250 + .045 (another inside day) keeps us in the 2.675 – 2.725 range.

 

BITCOIN closed $3,370 -10. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we spent a few days going sideways until last week when we ran back to the point of breakdown from 12/5.  Since then we have moved as high as $4,265, pulling back to test the most recent support around $3,650.  AFTER A YEAR BEING A VORACIOUS BEAR, I MAY BE LOOKING AT THE LONG SIDE HERE FOR A TRADE.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.01 tonight.  I will be a seller tomorrow if we don’t bounce back.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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.

After the close 1/28/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading January 29th

 

NVDA & CAT

Derail the Market

 

Today started the market down hard, and China clearly didn’t help.  By 10:00 we had made a low of – 393 and we rallied to -270 before starting another slide to make a new low by 12:15. After that we rallied a bit with a series of higher lows and higher highs on almost every 15-minute bar.  We actually closed at the high of the day since the gap down at the open finishing -209.08 (.85%), well off the lows.  NASDAQ was the biggest loser, as the chip stocks were decimated, finishing -79.17 (1.1%), S&P 500 -20.91 (.78%), the Russell -9.32 (.63%), and the DJ Transports, the big winner on a relative basis - .31 (0.0%).  Market internals were better than you might expect with NYSE volume 1.5:1 down and A/D 4:3 while NASDAQ, where the real damage was done was also 1.5:1 volume but actually 13:11 UP A/D.  New highs outnumbered new lows in both places.  The DJIA stocks were 24 down, 6 up with CAT contributing 85 of the Dow’s 208 loss, followed by MMM 18 points, V 18, and MSFT 14.  We have earnings for AAPL, BA, MCD,  & FB in the next few days.

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  As I said, the damage was mostly done not by earnings, but rather just lowered guidance by NVDA.  This decimated the chip sector and the rest of tech with NVDA, Mr. Cramer’s favorite chip stock (he named his rescue dog Nvidia) down from a high of $292.76 in October to open today on its low $136.25 – 24 (15%) and close $138.01 -22.14 (13.82%).  It took the rest of the chips with it, with AMD 20.18 -1.75 (7.98%), MU -.88 (2.26%), TXN -1.73 (1.66%) and the SMH, $95.08 -1.81 (1.87%) after it traded as low as $93.16.   CAT reported and opened $126.99 -9.87 before trading lower and closing $124.37 -12.49 (9.13%).  The report blamed China business and other world markets for the earnings miss.  While this seemed to be a surprise, I would remind everyone that CAT came out with its infamous announcement last year that they felt that they had already seen “Peak profits.”  VALE, subject of yet another disaster at another mine in Brazil on Friday, with major loss of life and destruction down river from another one of its “tailings dams” was already lower on Friday from a high of $15.45 closed today $11.20 -2.46 (18.1%).  After the close WHR reported a miss and after closing $124.46 - .61 is trading $115.50 – 8.98 (7.21%).

 

 

BIO / PHARMA were LOWER, with only TEVA +.22 and INCY +.71 keeping us from a 100% rout.  The biggest losers were ISRG -18.31 (3.56%) and ICPT -3.73 (3.12%) with IBB $107.26 -2.18 (1.99%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were HIGHER with CRON the big winner +2.56 (15.98%), TLRY +5.65 (8.83%), CGC +2.32 (4.89%), GWPH -2.02, ACB +.36 (5.36%), PYX -.09, NBEV +.44 (6.66%), APHA +.20 (2.79%) and MJ $33.81 +1.81 (5.66%).

 

 

RETAIL was MOSTLY LOWER with M +.21, JWN -1.02, KSS -1.27, DDS -.32, JCP -.02, WMT -.01, TGT -.27, TJX +.09 (we added the TJX 2/50 calls @ $ .55 and they closed .39 today).  The brands were also lower with RL +1.45, UAA -.41, LULU -2.19, NKE -.11, TPR +.38, CPRI +.14 and XRT $44.54 -.13 (.29%).

 

 

FAANG are LOWER with the action on NVDA ruling the day for the group.  GOOGL -23.37, AMZN -37.57, AAPL -1.86, FB -1.61, NFLX -3.05, NVDA -22.47 (14.08%), TSLA -1.91, BABA -.81, BIDU -.90, IBM +.15, BOX +.12, and XLK $64.96 -.97 (1.47%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were MIXED with GS -.75, JPM +.37, BAC +.02, MS -.29, C -.17, PNC -.05, AIG -.36, and XLF $25.93 -.07 (.27%).

 

 

HOME BUILDERS, were MOSTLY LOWER with TOL -.07, KBH -.44, PHM +.07, LEN -.04, DHI -.91, BZH -.07, WLH -.39, TMHC +.05, HD -.57, MAS +.49, and XHB $35.25 +.04 (.11%).

 

 

OIL, $51.99 -1.70 We broke out above $50 and moved as high as $53.64 last week before backing off a bit, but we also tested $51.33 today and that held.  I’m impressed with this move BUT, this area ($55) is where we broke down on 11/20/18 on our way back to $42.50.  This is the most important area on this chart since we broke down from $76.  I would favor some consolidation or at least some fundamental new that there is an increase in demand, but I honestly don’t see that in the cards short term.  I’ll probably stand aside and see what develops.  All of the stocks were lower with XLE closing $62.18 -.75 (1.19%).

 

 

METALS, $1,303.10 +5.00 After making a new high at $1,300.40 recently but closing lower that day.  We have had a sideways market since and worked our way into a pennant, which we fell out of on Friday, but my video in the Weekly Strategies Sunday night called for a rally off the uptrend line.  Friday was a great move back above the $1,300.40 and today we made another new high @ $1,303.70.  (we bought the GLD 2/122 calls @ $ .91 and sold half @ $1.65 or so and still have the second half that closed today $1.80).

 

That economic slowdown is hurting Copper which has been unable to sustain a rally above $2.72 -2.75 and has been probing the support at $2.65 on an almost daily basis.  Last Thursday’s break of not only $2.60, but $2.55 did more technical damage. We rallied back to a high of $2.68 last week but we are unable to hold the gains and today’s.  close of $2.68 -.0490 probably sets us up for a test of $2.60 and possibly lower.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $3,380 -145. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we spent a few days going sideways until last week when we ran back to the point of breakdown from 12/5.  Since then we have moved as high as $4,265, pulling back to test the most recent support around $3,650.  AFTER A YEAR BEING A VORACIOUS BEAR, I MAY BE LOOKING AT THE LONG SIDE HERE FOR A TRADE.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $3.93 tonight.  I will be a seller tomorrow if we don’t bounce back.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 1/24/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading January 25th

 

Wilbur (Ross) is Dumber than

Mr. Ed

 

Can anyone be more out of touch than Wilbur Ross?  This is the same guy who came on TV with a can of soda and one of Campbell’s soup bought at a 7-11 and said “these are only going up a couple of cents each, and that shouldn’t matter.”  Today’s comments by him are well beyond the pale.  This guy is so lacking in the basic understanding of how people making $51,340 manage to survive and the availability of banking relationships to borrow.  WHAT AN OUT OF TOUCH JACKASS.

 

Today was something we haven’t really seen recently, a “normal” range day with activity both above and below the previous close.  The low was -150 or so and the high + 50, and it was an inside day with only a .60% range. Volume and A/D were positive all day finishing up 2:1 on NYSE and 1.7:1 at NASDAQ.  DJIA finished - 22.39 (.09%), NASDAQ +47.69 (.68%), S&P 500 +3.63 (.14%), the Russell +10.15 (.70%), and DJ Transports +108.21 +1.11%) on the back of the airlines up between 3.25% and 6%.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  Chip and tech stocks were the leaders today with several earnings beats and solid guidance.  This group had been depressed and came back to life in dramatic fashion with LRCX opening +11 @ $150 and finishing $161.20 +21.87 (15.7%), TXN off to a slow start after the numbers last night catching up today +6.60 (6.9%), XLNX, another off to the races opening $98.10 but closing $106.06 +16.51 (18.44%).  SMH, the semiconductor ETF opened $92.13 but finishing $95.06 +5.23 (5.82%).  Airlines, mentioned above, ran up with AMR finishing +2.01 (6.35%), ALK +2.08 (3.26%), JBLU +.88 (5.10%) and LUV +3.20 (6.27%).

 

There were plenty of losers with Briggs & Stratton, BGG $11.56 -2.14 (15.62%), McCormick, MKC finishing well off the low (119) @ $124.35 -14.65 (10.54%), URGN, down from over $55 just 3 days ago finished $42.50 -3.43 (7.47%) on the news that they were offering 3.7 million shares @ $41.  Another offering of stock, WVE, down from $45 last week closed $35.73 -5.98 (14.34%).

 

PCG, Pacific Gas & Electric finally got some good news about the 2017 fires, it turns out they are NOT responsible.  The stock, down from $50 in November closed yesterday at $7.99 was trading $7.30 when at 3:30 it started to run up, was halted for excessive

volatility in 5 minutes, touched $14.13, reopened and was halted again for new pending, the announcing the news, and traded as high as $14.90 +6.91 (87%).  In the late trading we are $13.05.  Since the stock ran before the new it begs the question of Where is Stock-watch, who is supposed to monitor these kind of trades.  Further, what about the PCG 1/25 (expires tomorrow) $15 strike which had open interest of 79 contracts but traded 5,564 contracts today?  They traded as low as $ .01 and up to $2.50.

 

 

BIO / PHARMA were MIXED TO LOWER, with only REGN +6.72, INCY +1.81 (2.4%), and ICPT +5.82 (5.26%) higher and CELG -.30, BIIB -4.35, ABBV -2.00, ISRG -13.95 (2.63%), MYL +.15, TEVA -.54, VRTX -3.31, BCH -.01, and IBB $107.86 +.05 (.05%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were HIGHER with TLRY +2.32, CGC +.67, CRON +.91 (6.18%), GWPH +2.50, ACB +.40, PYX +.21, NBEV +.09, APHA -.02 and MJ $31.15 +.50 (1.63%).

 

 

RETAIL was MIXED with M -.20, JWN +.09, KSS -.99, DDS +.95, WMT -.35, TGT +.29, TJX +.04 (We bought some TJX 2/47.50 calls @ $1.86, today and we added the TJX 2/50 calls @ $ .55 and they closed .50).  The brands were also mixed with RL +.66, UAA +.32, LULU -1.43, NKE -.44, TPR -.39, CPRI -.03, and XRT $43.95 +.16 (.37%).

 

FAANG are MIXED with only NVDA having a move of over 2% at +5.69 (3.81%), GOOGL -.41, AMZN +10.73, AAPL -1.52, FB +1.45, NFLX +3.64, TSLA +2.51, BABA +3.42, BIDU -.56, IBM -.74, BOX +.66 (3.42%), and XLK $64.80 +.33 (.51%).

 

FINANCIALS were MIXED with GS +.60, JPM -.04, BAC +.07, MS -.10, C +.56, PNC -.49, AIG +.12, and XLF $25.79 +.06 (.23%).

 

HOME BUILDERS, were MOSTLY HIGHER with TOL +.49, KBH +.53, PHM +.12, LEN -.05, DHI +$2.44 (6.54%), BZH +.26, WLH +.63, TMHC +.44, HD -.54, MAS +.39 and XHB $35.03 +.50 (1.45%).

 

 

OIL, $53.13 + .51 We broke out above $50 and Had another quiet “inside” day today before finishing near the high and up in the face of a much larger than expected build in inventories.  I’m impressed with this move BUT, this area ($55) is where we broke down on 11/20/18 on our way back to $42.50.  This is the most important area on this chart since we broke down from $76.  I would favor some consolidation or at least some fundamental new that there is an increase in demand, but I honestly don’t see that in the cards short term.  I’ll probably stand aside and see what develops.  The stocks were mixed with the XLE finishing $62.14 +.33 (.53%).

 

 

METALS, $1,279.80 – 4.20 After making a new high at $1,300.40 recently but closing lower that day.  We have had a sideways market since and worked our way into a pennant, which we fell out of on Friday, but my video in the Weekly Strategies Sunday night called for a rally off the uptrend line.  We broke down overnight but were basically unchanged by the time we opened this morning, so I bought the GLD 2/122 calls @ $ .91 and they closed $ .74.  The commodity closed just under 1,280 and close to my sell zone on a close under $1,273.

 

That economic slowdown is hurting Copper which has been unable to sustain a rally above $2.72 -2.75 and has been probing the support at $2.65 on an almost daily basis.  Thursday’s break of not only $2.60, but $2.55 did more technical damage. We rallied back to a high of $2.68 last week but we are unable to hold the gains.  Today’s close of $2.6445 -.01 with a low of 2.63 probably sets us up for a test of $2.60 and possibly lower.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $3,565 + 30. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we spent a few days going sideways until last week when we ran back to the point of breakdown from 12/5.  Since then we have moved as high as $4,265, pulling back to test the most recent support around $3,650.  AFTER A YEAR BEING A VORACIOUS BEAR, I MAY BE LOOKING AT THE LONG SIDE HERE FOR A TRADE.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.25 tonight.  A close under $3.95 will take me out of that trade.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 1/23/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading January 24th

 

Bid Day For DJIA

Not So Much for the Others

 

Today started higher and hit it’s high of +296 by 10:00.  It was driven by numbers from IBM, UTX, and PG.  The rest of the markets went along for the ride, but not for long.  By 11:00 NASDAQ and S&P 500 were down on the day, but it took until Noon for the Dow to go negative.  At the low, around 12:30 we were down just under 100 but by 1:00 we were back to positive and by the close we were +171.14 (.70%), NASDAQ +5.41(.08%), S&P 500 +5.80 (.22%), the Russell -3.20 (.22%), and the DJ Transports -87.84 (.89%).  So, it was a widely split day with market internals were roughly 1:1 in both volume and A/Ds on both NYSE and NASDAQ.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  As I mentioned here last night, IBM was higher on their guidance and that followed through this morning topping last night’s move to close the day +10.38 (8.47%) and responsible for 70 Dow points (*DP).  Add to that, PG +4.40 (4.87%) and 30 *DP, and UTX +5.98 (5.38%) 40 *DP.  These are at the heart of the public’s focus and even when we sold off from -296 to -100, these stocks held.  In the non-Dow category was CMCSA beat and finished +1.92 (5.49%), ABT was in line but lower by $1.58 (2.21%).  This afternoon after the close we had F reporting a 28% drop operating income, but that was actually in line while it beat handily on revenues.  The stock has traded both higher and lower awaiting the conference call and is $8.30 -.02 right now.  TXN missed on revenues but beat on earnings and after trading slightly lower is $96.82 +1.33 (1.39%), LVS missed top and bottom line and is trading and fell to $53.62 before recovering to $55.65 -1.60 (2.79%).

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA were LOWER, with only CELG +.50, and TEVA +.75 (4%) while BIIB -1.74, ABBV -.21, REGN -3.54, ISRG -5.78, MYL -.79, VRTX -6.29 (3.24%), INCY -1.98, ICPT -.30 and IBB $107.80 -.92 (.85%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were MIXED with TLRY -.70, CGC -.24, CRON -.47, GWPH -3.78 (2.7%), ACB +.01, PYX -.57 (4.48%), NBEV +.49 (8.14%), APHA -.13 and MJ 31.00 +.06 (.19%).

 

 

RETAIL was MIXED with M -.16, JWN -.44, KSS +.19, DDS -.46, JCP +.04, WMT +1.16, HD -.80, TGT +.88, TJX -.10, (We bought some TJX 2/47.50 calls @ $1.75, today and we added the TJX 2/50 calls @ $ .55 which is where they closed).  The brands were also mixed with RL +.95, UAA -.33, LULU +.38, NKE -.55, TPR +.16, CPRI -.79, and XRT $43.80 +.04 (.09%).

 

FAANG are MIXED with GOOGL+6.22, AMZN +10.10, AAPL +.63, FB -2.98, NFLX -3.24, NVDA +2.71, TSLA -10.73 (3.59%) on layoffs, BABA +.10, BIDU +2.71, IBM +10.37 (8.64, BOX -.18, and XLK +.01 (.02%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -.96, JPM -.07, BAC -.20, MS -.26, C +.25, PNC -.18, AIG -.54, and XLF $25.73 +.03 (.12%).

 

 

HOME BUILDERS, were MOSTLY HIGHER with TOL +.24, KBH +.39, PHM +.38, LEN +.15, DHI +.88, BZH +.16, WLH +.03, TMHC +.34, HD -.60, MAS -.05 and XHB $34.53 -.14 (.40%).

 

 

OIL, $52.62 -.39 We broke out above $50 and moved as high as $53.64 today before backing off a bit, but we also tested $51.80 again and that held.  I’m impressed with this move BUT, this area ($55) is where we broke down on 11/20/18 on our way back to $42.50.  This is the most important area on this chart since we broke down from $76.  I would favor some consolidation or at least some fundamental new that there is an increase in demand, but I honestly don’t see that in the cards short term.  I’ll probably stand aside and see what develops.  All of the stocks were lower with APC -1.31 (2.78%) and NE - .09 (2.79%) the biggest losers and XLE $61.79 -.66 (1.06%)

 

 

METALS, $1,284 .00 + .60 After making a new high at $1,300.40 recently but closing lower that day.  We have had a sideways market since and worked our way into a pennant, which we fell out of on Friday, but my video in the Weekly Strategies Sunday night called for a rally off the uptrend line.  We broke down overnight but were basically unchanged by the time we opened this morning, so I bought the GLD 2/122 calls @ $ .91 and they closed $ .89 -07.  The commodity closed just under the high and $6.30 off the lows again today.

 

That economic slowdown is hurting Copper which has been unable to sustain a rally above $2.72 -2.75 and has been probing the support at $2.65 on an almost daily basis.  Thursday’s break of not only $2.60, but $2.55 did more technical damage. We rallied back to a high of $2.68 last week but we are unable to hold the gains.  Today’s close of $2.6545 -.005 probably sets us up for a test of $2.60 and possibly lower.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $3,535 -45. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we spent a few days going sideways until last week when we ran back to the point of breakdown from 12/5.  Since then we have moved as high as $4,265, pulling back to test the most recent support around $3,650.  AFTER A YEAR BEING A VORACIOUS BEAR, I MAY BE LOOKING AT THE LONG SIDE HERE FOR A TRADE.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.12 tonight.  A close under $3.95 will take me out of that trade.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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Call 617-827-1296.

After the close 1/22/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading January 23rd

 

IBM Numbers Surprise

 

Today started lower with not really much in the way of news other than World Economic council issuing lower numbers for growth worldwide from Davos and weak numbers from China.  Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but the only issue for me is the statistic that when an original AFC team (Patriots) wins the Super Bowl we have a down year.  We opened and went -200 or so and had several moves between -220 and -120 without much news or fanfare.  There’s not much question about the relative overbought nature after a rise of 800 last week or 2000 for the year, so some sideways action with a downward bent should be no surprise.  By noon we had further selling down to -320 and then we made the low for the day @ -467 with 40 minutes to go.  Larry Kudlow came on CNBC and outright denied that the meeting with the Chinese had not been cancelled and we rallied back to close -30187 (1.22%).  NASDAQ was the biggest loser all day and finished -136.87 (1.91%), S&P 500 -37.81 (1.42%), the Russell -25.05 (1.69%) and the DJ Transports -189.84 (1.90%).  Market internals were decidedly weak with NYSE volume 5:1 down and A/D 3.5:1 while NASDAQ was 3:1 for both.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  The news that Arconic (ARCN), spun out of AA on 10/31/2016, declared it was no longer pursuing its sale took the stock to a new low opening at $16.70 (it traded below 15 in extended hours) and finished $17.09 -3.25 (15.98%).  Also in the news Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) reported a loss with a gain in revenues but issued lower guidance going forward.  It too opened lower at $199.90 but continued lower to finish $115.69 -21.19 (15.48%).  Altria (MO), a stock that we made some great trades in the neighborhood of $53 -57, was downgraded by Morgan Stanley and fell to lows not seen since 2014, closing $44.97 -3.34 (6.9%).

 

On the upside, EBAY received a letter from Elliot Management saying they had taken a 4+% stake and that it sees “significant value creation opportunities.”   The stock opened $34.35 + $3.35 but fell a bit to close $32.90 +1.90 (6.13%). Elliot thinks that the spin-out of StubHub and the EBAY classified platform would be worth $55 to $63/ share.

 

Also a big mover after surprising the street was IBM with another miss in revenues but a $ .05 beat on earnings.  The company gave positive guidance and the stock was trading at $131.15 +864 (7.05%).

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA were LOWER, with only BIIB the only gainer on my list +1.54 (.46%) while all the others were lower by up to 3.3%.  The IBB was $108.72 -1.75 (1.58%).

 

CANNABIS stocks were MIXED with TLRY -4.45 (5.76%), CGC -.07, CRON +.13, GWPH +1.97, ACB -.21, PYX -.77 (5.72%), NBEV -.39 (6.07%), APHA +.72 (10.78%) and MJ $30.90 -.11 (.37%).

 

 

RETAIL was LOWER with M -.91, JWN -.45, KSS -.65, DDS -1.18 (1.83%), JCP -.09 (6.82%), WMT -.27, HD -2.47, TGT +.32, TJX -.66, (We bought some TJX 2/47.50 calls @ $1.70 today).  The brands were also lower with RL -2.24, UAA -.12, LULU -2.60, NKE +.53, TPR -.73, CPRI -1.13, FOSL -1.10 (6.11%) and XRT $43.76 -1.10 (2.45%).

 

 

FAANG are LOWER with GOOGL-28.80, AMZN -60.83 (3.59%), AAPL -3.47, FB -2.25, NFLX -13.95 (4.11%), NVDA -7.78 (4.96%), TSLA -2.81, BABA -4.62 (2.94%), BIDU -11.16 (6.51%), IBM +7.20 on the earnings news, BOX -.43 (2.16%), and XLK $64.25 -1.10 (1.68%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were LOWER but well off the lows with GS -3.56 but 3.50 off its low, JPM -1.86, VBAC -.21, MS -1.30, C -1.31, PNC -.67, AIG -.80 and XLF $25.73 -.27 (1.04%).

 

 

HOME BUILDERS, were LOWER and I’m adding a few to my list, like MAS, building materials and HD for same and improvements and WLH, and TMHC; TOL -.46, KBH -.45, PHM -.26, LEN -.85, DHI -.36, BZH -.57, WLH -.38, TMHC -.37, HD -2.47, MAS -1.23 (3.82%), and XHB $34.67 -.61 (1.73%).

 

 

OIL, $53.01 -1.03 We broke out above $50 and moved as high as $54.55 today before backing off a bit, but we also tested $52.04 again and that held.  I’m impressed with this move BUT, this area ($55) is where we broke down on 11/20/18 on our way back to $42.50.  This is the most important area on this chart since we broke down from $76.  I would favor some consolidation or at least some fundamental new that there is an increase in demand, but I honestly don’t see that in the cards short term.  I’ll probably stand aside and see what develops.

 

 

METALS, $1,283.40 + .80 After making a new high at $1,300.40 recently but closing lower that day.  We have had a sideways market since and worked our way into a pennant, which we fell out of on Friday, but my video in the Weekly Strategies Sunday night called for a rally off the uptrend line.  We broke down overnight but were basically unchanged by the time we opened this morning, so I bought the GLD 2/122 calls @ $ .91 and they closed $ .96 but .99 bid.  The commodity closed just under the high and $7.80 off the lows.

 

That economic slowdown is hurting Copper which has been unable to sustain a rally above $2.72 -2.75 and has been probing the support at $2.65 on an almost daily basis.  Thursday’s break of not only $2.60, but $2.55 did more technical damage. We rallied back to a high of $2.68 last week but we are unable to hold the gains.  Today’s close of $2.6595 -.0595 probably sets us up for a test of $2.60 and possibly lower.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $3,580 -5. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we spent a few days going sideways until last week when we ran back to the point of breakdown from 12/5.  Since then we have moved as high as $4,265, pulling back to test the most recent support around $3,650.  AFTER A YEAR BEING A VORACIOUS BEAR, I MAY BE LOOKING AT THE LONG SIDE HERE FOR A TRADE.  I bought some GBTC just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.26 tonight.  A close under $3.95 will take me out of that trade.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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Call 617-827-1296.

After the close 1/17/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading January 18th

 

NFLX Numbers

AXP and MS Miss

SIG Bottomless

 

Today started with a miss by MS some overall weakness that took us lower but the low of the day, -118 within the first 15 minutes, followed by a slow but steady recovery until there was a report by Wall St. Journal that we were considering lifting some of the tariffs on Chinese imports and within minutes we were up 227.  After the report was “somewhat” denied, we were back to +65, although we managed to rally back to close +162.94 (.67%), NASDAQ +49.77 (.71%), S&P 500 +19.86 (.76%), the Russell +12.55 (.86%) and DJ Transports +9.42 (.10%).  Market internals were solid gains with NYSE volume 3.5:1 and A/D 5:2, and NASDAQ slightly less at 3:1 and 5:3 respectively, with both new highs outnumbering new lows.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  The financials held the gains from yesterday even in the face of the MS miss.  While they started soft, all but MS on my list closed positive.  We had a Bio/Pharma home run in Lipocine, LPCN, which had very positive results in their “Liver Fat Study” for NASH (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis) which causes fat to accumulate in liver cells causing major damage.  This affects 30 million Americans.  The stock, with a 2015 high of $19.23 has had a steady erosion of price to have a low at year-end of $1.04, closed yesterday $1.59, and traded as high as $2.64 and closed $1.88 +.29 (18.24%).  If results continue we can expect the company to generate interest by a bigger pharma company interested in this area of research.  As I’ve said before, sometimes it’s cheaper to build your pipeline on Wall Street than in the lab.

 

 After the close we had numbers from NFLX and AXP.  Both missed on revenues and NFLX traded both higher and lower based on the headline as it hit.  The 5-minute bar after the news was a high of $364 and a low as $333 before settling in to work lower to close $339.70 – 13.49.

AXP traded from a high of 101.75 to 99.29 and finally closed 97.25 -2.24.  And, the disaster du jour was a stock seen in this space as a short starting around $134 all the way down to the mid-70’s.  SIG, under new management, missed on any and every metric used today.  Same store sales, gross sales, lowered guidance, taking a charge for “a previously disclosed regulatory matter.”  Remember this is the same company that had literally the biggest number of customer complaints at the consumer agency in the nation.  The stock opened $27.39 and finished $25.13 -8.23 (24.67%).  The stock has fallen from the high of $152.27 in late 2015 to close today -84%.  And deservedly so.

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA were HIGHER, with gains of 1-3% with the biggest winner REGN +12.84 (3.17%), followed by INCY +2.11 (2.76%).  Only CELG -.30 was lower on my list.  With IBB $109.81 +1.16 (1.07%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were MIXED with TLRY -2.41, CGC +1.45 (3.44%), CRON +.27, GWPH +5.89 (4.58%), ACB -.61 (8.23%), NBEV +.02, APHA -.20, and MJ $30.60 -.08 (.26%).

 

 

RETAIL was HIGHER with M +.27, JWN +.93, DDS +1.00, JCP +.05, WMT +.41, HD -2.04, TGT +1.75. TJX +.47, RL +2.25, UAA +.43, LULU +3.16, NKE +1.52, TPR +.82, CPRI +.68 and XRT $44.04 +.29 (.66%). (We bought some TJX 2/47.50 calls @ $1.45 today).

 

 

FAANG are HIGHER with GOOGL+6.29, AMZN +8.22, AAPL +1.06, FB +.72, NFLX -11.89 (3.33%), NVDA +3.51, TSLA +2.15, BABA +2.16, BIDU -1.05, IBM -.63, BOX +.43, and XLK $64.37 +.41, (.64%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER as mentioned above with only MS lower -1.83 (4.1%) and GS +1.93, JPM +.38, BAC +.53, C +.54, PNC +.68, AIG +.16 and XLF $25.56 +.14 (.55%).

 

 

HOME BUILDERS, were LOWER again with XHB $34.96 +.24 (.69%).

 

 

OIL, $52.07 -.24 We broke out above $50 with a vengeance.  I didn’t expect to see us cut through the supply between $50-52 but we closed on the highs.  After trading above $53 we have pulled back and I expect that $50 should be meaningful support. Yesterday we tested the lows, touching $50.64 before turning back to close near the highs. Today we made a slightly higher low (50.98) before coming back over $52.We sold the balance of our UNG position yesterday @ $3.42, for a $3.00/ option gain. The stocks were HIGHER across the board with XLE $62.57 +.57 (.92%).

 

 

METALS, $1,292.30 -1.50 After making a new high at $1,300.40 last week and closing lower on the day we had a lower high of 1,291.40 and although we closed higher today, we have seen the daily range contract almost every day. We clearly have made a solid run from the lows @ $1,200 to new contract highs.  We have had a sideways market since and today was more of the same, even though we had a slightly higher high and higher low again today.  We have worked into an ever tightening pennant and whichever way we come out is going to produce a nice move.

 

That economic slowdown is hurting Copper which has been unable to sustain a rally above $2.72 -2.75 and has been probing the support at $2.65 on an almost daily basis.  Thursday’s break of not only $2.60, but $2.55 did more technical damage. We rallied back to a high of $2.68 last week but we are unable to hold the gains.  Today’s range was slightly better trading $2.7120 and closing $2.68.  $2.73 is still major supply.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $3,605 +45. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we spent a few days going sideways until last week when we ran back to the point of breakdown from 12/5.  Since then we have moved as high as $4,265, pulling back to test the most recent support around $3,650.  AFTER A YEAR BEING A VORACIOUS BEAR, I MAY BE LOOKING AT THE LONG SIDE HERE FOR A TRADE.  I bought some GBTC today just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.43 tonight.  A close under $3.95 will take me out of that trade.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 1/16/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading January 17th

 

BANKS REPORT

And Wall Street Loves it

 

Today started with the news that GS and BAC results were tremendous, dragging the rest of the market higher.  We opened higher out of the gate and by lunch time we were making new highs for the day at +165.  By 3:00 we had made a new high of the day @ +205 on the back of GS, which at that time was +16.38 or 112 Dow points.  At the close we were only up by $141. 57 (.59%) and GS was 116 of that.  NASDAQ was +10.86 (.15%), S&P 500 +5.80 (.22%), the Russell +9.46 (.66%) and the DJ Transports +49.38 (.52%).  Market internals were NYSE 1.6:1 up for the volume with the A/D 9:5, and NASDAQ was 1:1 and 9:5 respectively with new high outnumbering low on both.

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  The financials were the feature today with better numbers from both BAC and GS.  GS was the first bank to report an increase in trading volumes.  BAC showed gains in loan business for the quarter to overshadow declines in investment banking.  BLK was the outlier showing a lower than expected profit from their actively managed funds. But in spite of that BLK was higher along with the others.  There was also a deal in the financial sector with FISV (Fiserv) buying FD (First Data) in a stock deal worth $22 Billion.  As to be expected, FISV was lower and traded as low as $68.45 before closing on its high at $72.57 -2.47 (3.29%) while FD closed on its high at 21.27 + 3.73 (21.27%) higher.

 

Also, followed here and signified by me as “terminal” SHLD, now SHLDQ, Sears, the Federal judge has accepted the Lampert bid of $5.2 billion to takeover of the bankrupt retailer.  This is the same guy who oversaw the dismemberment of the company with the purchase and then sale of Land’s End, the sale of Craftsman tools, the giving up of its Kenmore appliance to be carried on Amazon, and the merger of Kmart.  If past performance is any indication, Mr. Lambert will find another way to profit at the expense of his equity holders.  The stock closed $ .771 +.276 (55%).

 

The disaster de jour was LGND, cited by Citron Research as “about to lose patent protection on a drug that accounts for 75% of their profits.”  Closing yesterday $131.77, it opened around unchanged but after the report traded as low $98.56 before closing $110.22 -21.55 (16.35%).  The stock was as high as $278 in early October and Citrons target is $35.        

 

 

 

BIO / PHARMA were LOWER, with INCY the biggest loser -2.20 (2.8%) and the IBB $108.65 -.59 (.54%).

 

 

CANNABIS stocks were HIGHER with TLRY +2.75, CGC +.70, CRON +.29, GWPH +.07, ACB +.22, PYX -.44, NBEV -.52, APHA -.06 and MJ $30.95 +.67 (2.21%).

 

 

RETAIL was LOWER with JWN the biggest loser on their earnings -2.25 (4.76%), M -.48, KSS +.20, JCP +.01, HD - .47, TGT -.26, TJX +.21 (We bought some TJX 2/47.50 calls @ 41.35 today), the brands were RL -.54, UAA +.25, LULU +1.11, NKE -.26 and XRT $43.60 -.05 (.11%).

 

 

FAANG are MIXED with GOOGL +2.49, AMZN +4.44, AAPL +.87, FB -1.45, NFLX -2.84, NVDA -1.07, TSLA +1.62, BABA +3.62, BIDU +1.92, IBM -.11, BOX -.08, and XLK $63.96 +.06 (.09%).

 

 

FINANCIALS were HIGHER as mentioned above with GS +17.28 (9.6%), JPM +.82, BAC +1.90 (7.16%), MS +2.054.78%), C +.81, PNC +1.04, AIG +.68 and XLF $25.40 +.51 (2.05%).

 

 

HOME BUILDERS, were LOWER with PHM the biggest loser @ $27.37 - .70 (2.49%) and XHB $34.72 -.35 (1%).

 

 

OIL, $52.35 +.24 We broke out above $50 with a vengeance.  I didn’t expect to see us cut through the supply between $50-52 but we closed on the highs.  After trading above $53 we have pulled back and I expect that $50 should be meaningful support. Today we tested the lows, touching $50.64 before turning back to close near the highs. We sold the balance of our UNG position yesterday @ $3.42, for a $3.00/ option gain. The stocks were LOWER with only APA down over 2% @ $30.85 -.90 (2.83%), and both refiners bucking the trend with PSX +.54 and VLO +.23.  The XLE WAS $61.90 -.18 (.29%)

 

 

METALS, $1,293.40 +5.00 After making a new high at $1,300.40 last week and closing lower on the day we had a lower high of 1,291.40 and although we closed higher today, we have seen the daily range contract almost every day. We clearly have made a solid run from the lows @ $1,200 to new contract highs.  We have had a sideways market since and today was more of the same, even though we had a slightly higher high and higher low today.  I’m conflicted since there is an old adage “flat tops bring drops” even though I think we are going higher in the long term, but we may trade to $1,260- 1,280 first.

 

That economic slowdown is hurting Copper which has been unable to sustain a rally above $2.72 -2.75 and has been probing the support at $2.65 on an almost daily basis.  Thursday’s break of not only $2.60, but $2.55 did more technical damage. We rallied back to a high of $2.68 last week but we are unable to hold the gains.  Today’s range was slightly better trading $2.68 again and closing at the highs at $2.6720 + .0375.  It was also the highest close in 12 days.

 

 

BITCOIN closed $3,560 +25. After testing the new contract lows at $3,130 we spent a few days going sideways until last week when we ran back to the point of breakdown from 12/5.  Since then we have moved as high as $4,265, pulling back to test the most recent support around $3,650.  AFTER A YEAR BEING A VORACIOUS BEAR, I MAY BE LOOKING AT THE LONG SIDE HERE FOR A TRADE.  I bought some GBTC today just over $4.25, looking for another leg higher. We closed $4.24 tonight.  A close under $3.95 will take me out of that trade.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

CAM

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/IeuPzKQ8BH0RrYqCbEwbj4iBZ1Pbm_HPN2Jd1m-9gSDa1IjCiQkePPEJkqVZAnnpj21lLwHzGUFBhogaBdsIvPy4X1FRckPZm5nWhVZF3wuFljR-Dbi3U1ZHb3AWaod-bIWjT2vs 

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After the close 1/15/2019

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

For Trading January 16th

 

NFLX Raises Prices!

And Wall Street Loves it

 

Today started with the news that Netflix raised prices for two of its subscription plans from $11 to $13 and $9 to $11.  This is seen as a way to increase income to pay for ballooning content costs without going to the Street for equity or debt.  This took the FAANG stocks higher and kept them there for the day.  There was one decline around 2:00 that took the down from +155 all the way back to unchanged but by the close we were back to the highs, closing +155.75 (.65%), NASDAQ +117.91 (1.71%), S&P 500 +27.69 (1.07%, the Russell +12.40 .87%) and the DJ Transports, the only one up yesterday was the only one down -73.22 (.76%).  That will change tomorrow morning with the UAL earnings helping the airlines.  Market internals were positive on the NYSE with volume 1.5:1 and A/D 9:5, while the tech heavy NASDAQ 2.5:1 and 2:1 respectively.  New highs outnumbered low both placed.  The QQQ (NASDAQ 100) was up 3.11 (1.95%).

 

 

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news:  The biggest story of the day was the aforementioned NFLX having the biggest price rise in its history and unlike the first time in 2010 when subscribers and Wall Street voted with its feet and the stock fell (on a split adjusted basis from around $30 to $24 (20%).  This time, after closing $332.94 it gapped up to $349.40 and traded as high as $357.22 before closing $354.64 +21.70 (6.52%).  For those who fell asleep on Xmas eve and just woke up, the stock has risen from that close at $233.88, it is up 51.77% in 14 days.  I find it a touch excessive, but then again, I don’t own it.

 

It is my least favorite time of the quarter, earnings, and the big banks were in the spotlight with C yesterday (up 4.69 since Friday’s close) and both WFC and JPM today. Both reported better earnings but light revenues and after a lower opening JPM turned up from 98.60 to close higher at $101.68 + .74.  WFC finished - .75 (1.55%).  Also on the earnings front were SHW (raised to outperform with a price target of $475 by WFC) reported “unaudited” financials that were disappointing, taking the stock -$26 before closing -16.34 (4.11%).  This afternoon we also had EFII disappoint and trading lower by $5.23 (20%) and UAL with a massive and unexpected b