After the close 8/21/2017GWO2.jpg

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 22ND

 

Well, today’s market was weak from the start and try as it might we just couldn’t really get going in either direction.  While the DJIA had a short range day, it closed on the highs, as did the S&P500 and NASDAQ, although the Dow was the only one that has not broken the 50 day moving average.  The internals were not any help with the NYSE 1:1 in both volume and A/D and the NASDAQ was 4:3 negative in both.

 

Oil couldn’t hold the $49 and fell back to close -$1.10 with the gold and copper markets moving higher with GLD +.46, NUGT+1.50 while SLV was unchanged.  The 10 year bonds were up a couple of ticks but nothing to be concerned about.  This put a little US$ decline.

 

The oil stocks were lower with CVX-.70, XOM-.26, APC-.12, OXY -.31, COP-.61, BP-.09, RIG-.15, MPC-.66, MRO-.10, HES-.36, PXD-4.45 (3.37%), APA-.79, OAS-.26, CXO-.02, RDS.A-.41 and XLE-.31.

 

ULTA continued to fall (-9.99 or 4%) based on the move to discounted makeup in retail, while M +.08 was higher on a new president, JWN-.56, KSS+.06, DDS-.19, SHLD-.10, JCP-.03, WMT+.39, while the brands we RL+.58, PVH-.99, KORS-.01, COH +.77, FOSL-.31 and XRT-.25. HD (also a member of XRT, was +1.71 after testing Friday’s earnings low and moving to the highs and closing there.  In the shoe and sports retailers NKE-1.34 on a downgrade with FL-2.56 (40% in the last 3 days) and DKS slightly lower, -.53 but also down 33% in the past week.

 

The big NASDAQ names were lower again with GOOGL-5.31, AMZN-5.94, AAPL-.42, NFLX- .24, NVDA -2.74, TSLA-10.36 (tepid response for a bond offering), BA-.27, and IBM +.87.  Financials were also lower across the board with GS-1.16, JPM-.11, BAC- .24, C-.58, and XLF -.07.

 

We bought some M and NVDA calls today and I have very close stops on both positions

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/17/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 18TH

 

Well, today’s market was weak from the start but between the exodus of corporate heads from the panel and the attack in Barcelona we sank slowly but continuously until about 2:00PM.  We had tried to bottom (and I traded SPY calls for a small loss) but broke the lows and accelerated from -180 in the DJIA and fell an additional 100 to close at the lows of the day with a loss of 274.48 or 1.25%, and that was the best performance of the day.  The S&P500 was -38.10 (1.54%, NASDAQ-123.20 (1.94, Russell-24.59 (1.78%), and the Transports -224.77 or a whopping 2.4%.  The internals were all negative with NYSE 4:1 volume and 3:1 A/D and 3:1 for both on NASDAQ.

 

At the risk of repeating myself, political and geopolitical shifts are the fastest way to turn sentiment in either direction.  When you have even the top members of your own party (Bob Corker R-TN) expressing doubt of his president’s ability to govern or even understand what his job entails, there is a major problem.  While it is common for the market to “climb a wall of worry” sometimes the worry is so overwhelming that an “event” needs to occur to wash it out.

 

All groups were weak and retail had some earnings with LB-3.30 pre-open, and traded as low as 35 before rallying to close at the high 37.55 still down $2 or 5%,  WMT also reported and helped push the DJIA down and was -3 but also closed near the high-1.28 or 1.58%.  After the close ROST beat and traded +6.30 from its NY close, GPS also beat and closed +1.25 after being +4.  All this was little comfort to those who own M-.49 a 7 year low, JWN-.14, KSS-.69, DDS-1.10 (raised div from .07 to .10, SHLD-.35, JCP-.01, WMT-1.23, and XRT.64.

 

All of the big names were lower with GOOGL-16.61, AMZN-20.98, AAPL-2.93, FB-3.24, NFLX-3.89, NVDA- 3.20, TSLA- 11.41, BA- 2, and IBM- 1.80.  Also an across the board loser was the financials with GS- 4.46, JPM- 1.59, BAC- .53, C- 1.10 and XLF- .43.

 

Bio / Pharma was lower with the IBB-6.01, CELG-3.58, ALXN- 1.92, REGN- 4.52, SRPT- .88, VRTX-2.83, BIIB- 9.78, AMGN- 3.58, INCY-2.60, ISRG-15.80, TSRO-3.94, ATHN- 3.26, CLVS-1.90, ICPT-1.28, and the lone gainer VRX +.25.

 

It’s hard to be positive on a week like this one, but a trade on the SPYs of $243.55 would close the gap left on the breakaway on 7/11.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/16/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 17TH

 

Well, today’s market was up again at the open but had trouble gathering momentum. It could only approach the highs around 247.50 in the SPYs and it managed to climb back after the two declines, The Trump disbanding of the CEO panel and then the Fed minutes.  We bought the puts @ $ .60 vs. 247.30 and when they wouldn’t break the prior days close we sold the puts @ $.84.  This market keeps clawing back and managing to move higher. All of the indexes were slightly higher but less than .20% and the internals, while positive were not impressive at 1.4:1 volume and 1.5:1 A/D on the NYSE and 8:5 and 15:13 respectively on NASDAQ.

 

Oil tried the upside but couldn’t make it thru $48 and then fell and closed below $47, and is trading + .05 in the overnight session.  The stocks were down across the board with CVX-.69, XOM-.69, APC-.71, OXY-.97, COP-81, BP-.22, PSX- .26, RIG-.26, MPC-.89, MRO-.30, HES -1.45, PXD-2.07, APA-.99, OAS-.14, CXO-.53, RDS.A-.31 and XLE-.61.

 

Financials were also weak, especially after the dovish Fed minutes when the bond yields fell.  GS was -2.22, JPM -.67, BAC-.28, C-.40, and XLF-.05.  The big names were mixed to weak also with GOOGL+4.90, AMZN-6.49, AAPL-.82, FB-1.26, NFLX +1.27, NVDA -2.48. TSLA +.77, BA -1.67, and IBM +.41.

 

As with everything else, the Bio / Pharma’s were mixed with IBB +.77, CELG-.27, ALXN+1.34, REGN-4.03, SRPT +.81, VRTX-1.35, BIIB +6.09, AMGN +.36, INCY +3.53, TSRO-1.01, ATHN +1.67, CLVS-.08, ICPT +1.31 and VRX +.42.

 

I am still feeling mixed about the market and will continue to take advantage of the low volatility and trade the SPY’s. Individual stocks will be the feature in the Weekly Statistics on Sunday and as always, subscribers can take advantage of the Text Alerts during the week.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/15/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

FOR TRADING AUGUST 15TH

 

Well, today’s market was up again at the open but had trouble gathering momentum.  Retail sales were +.6% vs.4% expected and inventories rose .5% vs.4% and helped a little, but the misses of HD, COH, and DKS were too much to handle and premarket was ugly but it only worse as the day went on. HD -4.09 (2.6%), COH -7.28 (16%), and DKS -8.04(23%) and is down from $52 since May on Nike (NKE) going to a direct to consumer site and declines in golf equipment area. The rest of the group was lower with M -.06, JWN -.69, KSS -.49, SHLD +.02, JCP -.09, WMT +.17, TJX +.70, TGT -1.05, ROST -1.72, BURL -3.18,and the XRT-.95.  The “brands” were RL -.32, KORS-.98, FOSL + .04, PVH -.96.

 

The big names were also lower with the exception of BA +3.14, GOOGL -.93, AMZN -1.08, AAPL +1.75, FB +.15, NFLX -2.64, NVDA -1.40, TSLA -2.10, and IBM -.36.  Financials were a bit stronger on a higher 10yr bond but most, while up, closed at or near their lows; GS +.44, JPM +.40, BAC +.05, C +.06 and XLF + .08.

 

The auto second market stocks were also weak today and while they rallied near the close to the highs of the day, they were all lower.  AZO -9.19 was down 27 at the lows as was AAP -22 (low -27), and ORLY -2.42.44 was -12 at the lows.  It’s hard to figure with used car prices soft and average age of 11 years that the demand for parts would be much greater.  These stocks collapsed in May and again in July and these 3 are down over 30% this year.

 

The internals were weak all day with NYSE volume 4:3 down and A/D 9:5 lower.  NASDAQ was similar at 8:7 and 2:1 respectively.  The weakness was also seen in the oil as the futures tested $47 and rallied to close - .05, but the stocks just couldn’t follow and close mixed to lower with CVX +.08, XOM-.10, APC +.55, OXY -.60, COP -.03, BP -.03, PSX -.18, RIG -.44, MPC-.40, MRO -.05, HES +.16, PXD +.86, APA-.05, OAS-.19, CXO-2.00, RDS.A-.14, and XLE -.24.

 

All in all we had a quiet day after the big move yesterday.  I spent all day wanting to sell the strength but could never pull the trigger.  It was good because I wouldn’t have been able to make much and we just crept higher into the close…Again, When in doubt stay out !

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/14/2017

 Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 15TH

 

Well, today’s market was hot right from the start and at the close the DJIA was +135 (.62%), NASDAQ +83 (1.34%), the S&P500 +25 (1%), and the Russell +20 (1.46%).  The internals were solid, but not at blow-off numbers with volume 5:2 and A/D 3.5:1 on the NYSE and 4:1 and 3:1 NASDAQ.

 

The big names were mostly higher with NFLX the lone loser -.60, GOOGL +8.84, AAPL +2.52, FB +2.82, NVDA +12.49, TSLA +5.89, BA +2.51 and even IBM +.76.

 

I didn’t do any trading today except to sell my SPY puts on my 50% Down Rule and I am probably watching to see where we head next.  It’s awfully hard to watch a rally like this that was based on the fact that no one blew up the world as its main point.

 

Retail was mixed with M -.23, JWN +.10, KSS +.16, DDS -.28, SHLD -.27(3%), JCP -.16(4%), WMT +.30 and XRT +.21.  The brands did a little better with RL +1.09, PVH +.49, KORS +.33, COH +.63 and FOSL,  maker of private label watches for most of these brands +.10 but still down from $12.59 a week ago.  Financials had a good day with GS +3.20, JPM +1.08, BAC +.22, C +1.18 and XLF +.33.

 

Bio /Pharma was also strong with IBB +3.17, CELG +2.68, ALXN +1.03, REGN +7.95, SRPT -.52, VRTX +.62, BIIB +2.37, AMGN +2.24, INCY +2.18, ISRG +23.85 (2.5%), TSRO +1.40, ATHN+2.07, CLVS -1.45, ICPT +1.58 and VRX -.03 (3.43 lower last 4 days).

 

My instincts here are a bit confused and while I watched all day and wouldn’t get in the way of the rally, but couldn’t find any trades that had a reasonable risk profile, and all I have to fall back on is “WHEN IN DOUBT, STAY OUT.”

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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11TH

 

Well, anyone waiting for a pullback got their wishes today with the DJIA -204 (.93%),S&P500 -35.80 (1.45%), NASDAQ -135 (2.13%), Russell -24.40(1.75%) and the Transports -115 (1.25%).

 

Earnings were only one of the stories today with the beats being rewarded except STMP who beat but was lower by $9.34, but was higher by $70/share over the past 8 days.  PLNT + 2.08 (9%), PRGO +10.41 (15.6%), HDSN+1.27 (16%) after trading +2.60.  GLPG +7.89 (10%) on positive trial results. The misses were taken out and shot with CBI-4.36 (26%) and is down from 36 since February and issued very poor guidance, PTLA -4.34 (7.2%), NTES -30.80 (9.78%), SYNC beat but also provided negative guidance -1.15 or 32%, YY (China social media) which beat but traded +6 to -4 and closed unchanged, APRN beat by guidance was poor and the stock traded lower by 1.10 (26%) and has been cut in half since the IPO on 6/29.  SNAP -2.12 and broke its prior low of 11.90, NVDA beat both top and bottom and gave good guidance but was lower by 14, but this was up 80% since April.

 

Retail was a mess with M beating, but lower by 2.38, KSS beat but lower by 2.08, JWN beat after the close and traded lower to $44.50 and up to $48 and is now -.87, but the biggest loser for the day after missing top, bottom and bad margins and closed -11.64 or 15.87%. SHLD -.58, JCP -.42, WMT -.95 and XRT -1.15 (2.83) and dwarfed the decline of 1.14, largest in 4 months. One leftover from yesterday was PCLN -57 for a 2 day loss of 199.

 

With all the trouble with No. Korea even the defense stocks were lower with LMT -1.98, GD -2.72, NOC -2.55, RTN -.30 and BA -1.82.

 

Oil started higher (high 50.22) but fell back to close $48.51-1.05 and all of the oils I follow were lower with CVX -.84, XOM -.47, APC-.40, OXY -.32, COP -.76, BP -.70, PSX -.85, RIG -.12, MPC-.78, MRO-.17, HES -.62, PXD -2.35, APA-.97, RDS.A -.77 and XLE -.75.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/9/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 10TH

 

Todays’ market was down a bit from the start but spent the bulk of the day in a slow backing and filling pattern with higher highs and lows.  I got scared out of my SPY position when we went to a lower low.  I couldn’t have picked a worse time since it just sat and held before running to make a new high of the day and closed up.

 

There was a great deal of follow-thru to both the upside and downside of some of the earnings moves from yesterday.  DIS was as low as $100.50 and while it closed on the high@ $102.83, it was still -4.25 on the day.  FGEN +16 on Tuesday but gave back $5.85.  ODP missed and fell $1.58 (26%) and with the help of PCLN-$142 (that’s right, no decimals missing) drove the retail ETF to its biggest daily drop in 4 weeks, and that is saying something.  FOSL -2.97 (25%), TRUE -2.78 (14%), RRGB +4.85 after +8 was a solid mover.  Z missed and fell 4 (9%), TSRO -8.13, JACK reported and traded down to 90.28 before turning up and hitting 98 before last trading 96.80, VRX was up yesterday to 17, collapsed to 14.08 (10), and TEVA -.79 just can’t get any traction, basically cut in half in the last 10 trading days.

 

The big names are a touch out of favor (as explained in my special report 10 days ago) and were mostly lower with GOOGL-3.70, AMZN -8.40, AAPL +1.12, FB-.18, NFLX continued lower by 2.86 on the news that DIS is going to package their library itself.  NVDA +2.06, TSLA -1.06, BA -2.73 and IBM -.33.

 

Oil stocks were mixed again with CVX +.64, XOM +.28, APC -.11, OXY =.31, COP -.11, BP +.21, PSX -.53, RIG -.28, MPC -1.45, MRO -.22, HES-.26, OAS +.05, CXO +.90, RDS.A +.69 and XLE +.06.

 

Financials were lower on the “flight to safety” on the North Korea problems as people bought the bonds and drove yields lower. GS -1.04, JPM -.15, BAC -.20, C -.46 and XLF  was unchanged.

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/8/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 9TH

 

Todays’ market was a little soft for the first 15 minutes today and the started backing and filling until it worked its way through unchanged and then rallied to all-time new highs around 2490.87.  It didn’t spend long up there and came back down to unchanged and with Trump’s North Korea tweet took a fast dive down to 2470 but closed a little off the lows at 2475.

 

The list of earnings related moves included DIS -4.13 on not very much change from expectations, but it did make several comments about the new services coming soon.  That announcement knocked NFLX -10 or so, now trading 173.50-7.43.  Some of the gains included RL +10.38 (13%), VRX +.27 after being +1.50, ESPR +6.96 (15%), KORS +8.02 (21.5%), TCMD +3.65 (12%), KITE +6.58(6%) after a Rev beat, NCLH +2.77 after being up 5 (4.9%), ZBRA +9.40 (9.6%), ACAD +3.50 (closed -1.03 but moved +3.50 after report), HSIC -9.77 (5%).

 

Some companies beat but didn’t give good guidance, including IT -3.95, AIRG -3.08 (22%), and W -5.05, MAR -2.22 after being -6, others were outright misses including some major movers like DF -3.11 (22%), DEPO -3.08 (33%) with several lawsuits filed by holders, FOSL -2.42 (17%) makers of watches for KORS and other brands, TRUE -2.56 (12%) and PCLN -143 (7%), SAGE -4.11 (4.7%) and PDCE -5.37, (12%) and CAR was off 3.36 or 9.7% and TRIP -3.00 on sympathy with PCLN.

 

Others moving from yesterday’s late news are FGEN +21, CHTR +8.74, TEVA tried today but could only hold .30 after being +1.50, BHF fell again on institutional sales that require dividends (spinoff from MET). PAA -4.88 (19%) on decreased distributions and poor guidance.

 

The oil was a narrow range day and the stocks fell with the market.  The exceptions were CVX +.55, COP +.28, MRO +.04, MPDX +6.36 (4.9%), OAS M+.23 and CXO +1.76.  The rest were lower with XOM -.20, APC -.16, OXY -.53, BP -.21, PSX -.05, MPC -.46, HES -.24, APA -.59, RDS.A -.13 APA -.59 and XLE -.26.

 

The big names were mostly lower with GOOGL -5.50, AMZN -8.16, NAAPL +.97, FB -1.18, NFLX -8.03 (after only -2.97 before DIS news), NVDA -2.25, TSLA +8.95, BA -.78, and IBM + .10.

 

The retailers were mixed on the rationale If the brands like RL and KORS are making money, the places they sell them should follow. The XRT was - .48 anyway.

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/7/20

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 8TH

IS TECH BACK ?

 

Todays’ market was up a bit from the start but spent the bulk of the day in a slow grind and closed at new highs in the DJIA and S&P500. NASDAQ has a bit to go, as does the Russell and of course the DJ transports.  The internals were really no influence with the NYSE numbers barely even (just a tiny bit negative, and NASDAQ just slightly positive.

 

BHF, a recent spinoff from Met was down again with a slide from $75 to close today at $61.72 – 2.82 (4.4%).  One of the main issues is that there are no dividends and all the funds that owned MET (+1%) that have dividends as a component have to sell.

 

COL (Rockwell) was +8.07 today but has moved $25 in the last 5 days on takeover speculation. Street estimates of $140-155 seem to be the right number.  NXTM is also a buyout, but this one has a $30 price tag and closed $29.67 +6.53. MYOK had positive trial results and an earnings beat and closed + 14.30 (83%), ZYNE was the disaster of the day with a failure on a cannabis based gel and fell to $6.67-8.39 or 56%.

 

Earnings after the close included CAR -3.39 (11%), TWLO on less of a loss hit $35.70 before settling 34 +3.50.  CAR -3.39 on a miss and depressed used car prices.  We heard the same thing from HTZ last week.  AAOI finally had a bounce to $70+5.09 after a 4 day fall from 101 to 61.  CBS beat slightly and was +.50.  LC 5.89 + .65 (10%), FGEN had a beat and a positive on a new drug and traded 52+19 (55%).THC missed and fell $2.09 or 12%, CUTR beat on Q2 and closed +1 @26.65 and jumped to 33.50 and is now $32 +5.35 a price it hasn’t seen since 2007.

 

Oil was both higher and lower overnight but after hitting $48.54 it rallied back to close only -.19.  The stocks were lower with the exception of BP +.42, CVX-.55, XOM-.13, OXY -.28, APC-.26,  COP-.45, PSX-53, RIG-.31, MPC-1.49, PDX -5.85, APA-.63,  OAS -.25, CXO -2.57, and XLE-.50.

 

Bio / Pharma was strong again with IBB+1.69, CELG +.10, ALXN +1.69, REGN+1.34, SRPT +.53, VRTX +1.93, BIIB +2.74, AMGN +.73, INCY+3.30, ISRG +5.56, ATHN+1.08, CLVS -.99 and ICPT +.48.

 

The big names were mostly higher with GOOGL-.59, AMZN+3.21, AAPL+1.51, FB +2.38, NFLX+1.06, NVDA +6.49, TSLA -1.91, BA+2.49, and IBM -1.47.

 

Finally, financials were higher with GS +3.12, JPM +.34, BAC unch, C +.10 and the XLF was -.04.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/3/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 4TH

  

Todays’ market was down from the start but this was only the DJIA, as both the NASDAQ and S&P500 did not follow the lead.  The internals were soft from the start and the NYSE finished 5:3 negative volume and 4:3 down A/D.  NASDAQ was similar with 3:4 volume and 1.7:1 negative A/D. On a positive note, the S&P

500 today was an “inside day” meaning a lower high and a higher low, and generally accepted as a non-event for direction.

 

There was plenty of follow-thru on the earnings misses from last night and today’s were just as bad.  AAOI was 98+6 at the close but missed and the stock traded as low as 67.33 – 31 before closing at 70.99.  MELI (often called the Amazon of Mexico) missed and after closing @ 292.38 +5.78 also missed and was as low as 243 before a 264.98 close -28 (10%).  COMM missed and was 33.55-3.61 after recovering from the low @ 3.  There were some winners after the close like WTW closing @ 33.08 before reporting a solid beat and rallying to 41 before a closing at 37.75 +4, ETSY a slight miss that took it down to $12.50 before closing 14.75 +1.25.  KHC was a miss on rev. and a beat on earnings and fell initially but bouncing back to 87.50+1.  SHAK was a beat but bad same store sales numbers pushed it to 31.25 before it closed +.09 @ $35.25. GPRO was a smaller lose than expected and was +1.02 or 11%.  Some others were FIT was higher while PRGO (-3.82 or 5%) followed TEVA, a major loser -7.50 (24%), MYL-2.22 (6%), and GILD -1.47.  CENX was -3.41 (20.37%) and SBGI -3 after a loss yesterday of 1.90 for a 2 day loss from 37.25 to 31.50.

 

Oil tried the upside again but failed at $49.96 and was lower at the close @ $49.03. The stocks were mostly lower with CVX -.97, XOM -.14, APC -.90, OXY +.18, COP -1.36, BP -1.07, MPC -.02, RIG +.67 (7.7%), MRO +.49, HES -.62, PDX -10.68, APA-3.81, OAS -.09, CXO-10.87 (8.45%) and XLE -.93.

 

The Van Eck Semiconductor ETF (SMH: $ 85.23) -$ 0.51 on the day and closed below its 50 day price moving average at about $ 85.52, after having made a double top in the most recent two weeks of trading. Its top this year is $89.72 on June 9th. Today’s close was the lowest since July 11th.Other stocks in the industry had a similar move. Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO: $43.10) is off 23% from its high.

 

The big names were split 50/50 today with GOOGL -8.38, AMZN -8.97, AAPL -1.58, FB -.70, and NFLX -1.33.  The gains were NVDA +1.99, TSLA +21.81 (6.7%), BA +.59 and IBM +.27.  Financials were lower across the board with GS -2.39, JPM -.81, BAC -.25, C -1.07 and XLF -.09.

 

Retail was a bit stronger with M +.42, JWN +.35, KSS +.92, DDS -1.05, SHLD +.53 (6.5%), JCP +.02, WMT +.46 and XRT -.08.

 

The last group, Bio /Pharma, was pretty much lower with IBB -2.49, CELG +1.05, ALXN -1.25, REGN -11.82, SRPT -.38, VRTZ -3.52, BIIB -1.91, INCY -.28, INCY +.27, ISRG +1.19, TSRO -1.10, ATHN -3.25 CLVS -4.18 and ICPT +4.64.

 

In case you need any further convincing that this is a dangerous market one need only look at what happened around 3:30 when it was reported that the Special Prosecutor Mueller announced that he was convening a Grand Jury on the Russian issue.  There were no buyers and the S&P 500 went from close to the high of the day to near the lows without an uptick.

 

If you don’t use stops, you need protection.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/2/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 3RD

 

Todays’ market was up from the start but this time all of the “markets” were higher.  If that sound familiar it’s because I said it yesterday too.  We came in long, but the S&P500 just couldn’t get going (gain) so we sold the calls and traded the puts.  It took about 30 minutes for use to get out of the first half on 100% Up Rule, and when we rallied a bit more than I expected it to, we sold them for a $ .02 loss. This produced a 52% gain in the completed trade.  I watched and looked at the calls and the puts and just couldn’t feel comfortable with either, so I went back to my own personal mantra “When in doubt stay out.”  This market feels weak to me, but you can’t argue with the close near the high as a test of support near S&P 236.25.

 

We had plenty of earnings today with both beats and misses.  On the positive side we have ONCE +13.13 (19%), FEYE +.11 (after being up 2), ULTI -26.98 (12%) after a beat on net but lower revenues and a downgrade, TTWO +10 (12%), CAKE with a minor beat that took it higher but then -$4, AIG +2 with the conference call tomorrow before the open, FIT +.20 after trading +$ .45, SQ + .20 after +1.60, and the biggie: TSLA +6 at the close now trading +$32.44.

 

The downside was littered with names that were misses or just negative guidance.  MTSI -15 (26%) on a miss attributed to weakness in China, AN -3 on the same issues as HTZ lower by another $1.42 after a slight bounce from Monday’s 20% downdraft on lower used car values, AAOI -6 (6%), LRCX -5.90 (and down from 170 to 151 in the past 5 trading days and part of the same group as MTSI), and the follow-thru from AMC -5.60 (27%) bled into RGC -.90 (5%).  

 

The oil held yesterday’s lows and turned up on the drawdown news. CVX -.32, XOM +.54, APC -.18, OXY-.02, COP+.86, BP +.23, PSX+1.04, RIG+.06, MPC -.33, MRO +.39, HES +.84, XLE -.21, and PXD closed $145.68 -17.59 (10.7%) with a low of $137 -25 after reporting an earnings beat but negative guidance.

 

Retail was lower after JWN announced that it hasn’t found a buyer for “preferred equity” to own the stock (46.49-2.45 or 5%) with M -.80, KSS-.47, DDS 73.09-3.56 and down from 83.44 in 2 days, SHLD-.34 (4.1%), JCP -.17, WMT +.04 and XRT -.86.

 

Disregarding the AAPL lift of +7, the big names were mixed with GOOGL +1.08, AMZN -.53, FB-.71, NFLX-1.03, NVDA +.37, BA-1.25, IBM -.80, and of course today’s big beat for TSLA +31.13 (9.74%).

 

As I mentioned above, the market feels weak and the internals bear that out with the NYSE 1.5:1 negative for both volume and A/D while the NASDAQ was worse at 2:1 and 2.5:1 negative respectively.  It’s hard to argue with the seasonal influence for the summer, and the fact that August is the “worst month” of the year with September following as #2.  If you can’t find the right risk profile it’s best to go fishing, play golf, or just hit the beach and recharge.  I expect the open tomorrow to be flat or higher and I’ll be watching today’s highs in the S&P500 (2480) and buying the puts again with a stop just over the high at 2484.

 

And again, with volatility so low it’s just foolish to not own protection.

 

The FAANG report is no longer available to nonsubscribers.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/1/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

FOR TRADING AUGUST 2ND

 

Todays’ market was up from the start but this time all of the “markets” were higher.  The S&P500 immediately sold off from the highs and spent a good part of the day going sideways until the late rally taking it back to unchanged and then closing near the highs and up $6.05.  Unfortunately the oil seemed to be the problem opening over $50 but selling off to the $48.79 -1.38. This activity pushed the stocks lower with the exception of the 3 that reported earnings, CVX +1.53, BP +1.13, and PSX +1.86.  The rest were lower with XOM +.05, APC -97, OXY -.41, COP -.67, RIG - .13, MRO -.32, HES -1.38 and XLF -.01.

 

Financials were higher with GS +1.67, JPM +1.50, BAC +.38, C +1.31, and XLF +.23.

 

But the big news after the close was AAPL‘s BEAT across the board.  The stock was +1.32 @ $150.05 and is now trading at $159.25 +9.20.  This should give the markets a lift since AAPL is a DJIA, QQQ, and S&P stock.  It should also ease the minds of the big name traders that had been more than soft last week and rallied today.  GOOGL +5.34, AMZN +12.64, FB +1.70, NFLX +1.03, NVDA +3.19, IBM +.63 and after a 5 day run from 211 to 246, BA was -3.02.

 

Some other earnings names today were UAA -1.72 (8.6%), CMI -10.42 (6.2%), TXRH +2 (4.2%), COHR was up $6 at the close at 271 but fell to 213 and is now trading $233 -38.  AMC also reported after closing $20.80 +.40 and its miss brought out the sellers to now trading $15.30-5.50 or 26.4%. REGN was -19.62 (9%), and the other Bio / Pharma’s were lower with IBB -2.56, CELG -.51, ALXN +.26, SRPT +.16, VRTX +1.18, BIIB +1.41, AMGN -.51, INCY -4.59, ISRG +2.64, TSRO -3.37, ATHN +7.69, CLVS – 3.01, and ICPT -5.88.

 

On the positive side of earnings was LL +8.88 (this one has a huge short position and was up a remarkable 36%, SHOP +11.71 (12%), IPGP + 13.75 (9%), and CACC +21.97 (8.5).  Another name in the news were S + .89 (11%) with earnings and a statement that there would be a deal soon.

 

The internals were positive but not by much with NYSE volume 1.2:1 and A/D 1.5:1 while NASDAQ was 7:6 and 1.1:1 respectively.  I would expect the AAPL to carry the day at the open and then we’ll see what happens.  If you are not getting the texting service (with your subscription) you should get in touch with me at the number or email at the end of this note.

 

My report on FAANG stocks went out LAST WEEK, but if you want a copy, simply write the word “REPORT” in the subject line and I will send you a copy.  WE DO NOT RESELLTHE INFORMATION and you will not receive unsolicited email from us.

Send your email to Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

Retail was higher with M +.22, JWN +.74, KSS +.21, DDS reversing yesterday’s loss was +3.83, SHLD - .24, JCP +.11, WMT +.76 and XRT +.14.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 7/31/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 1ST

 

Todays’ market was a split decision based on where you were looking.  If you own the QQQ stocks you got pounded while your S&P500 holdings were only down small change, but if you owned the Dow 30, you had another good day.  The market internals told the story with NYSE volume and A/D both 4:3 UP while over on the NASDAQ they were volume 1.6:1 and A/D 1.3:1 DOWN.

 

This is exactly what my report on the FAANG stocks getting ahead of themselves and then dramatically under-performing is all about.

 

My report on FAANG stocks went out LAST WEEK, but if you want a copy, simply write the word “REPORT” in the subject line and I will send you a copy.  WE DO NOT RESELLTHE INFORMATION and you will not receive unsolicited email from us.

Send your email to Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

The big names were weak across the board with the one exception, BA, +1.13, for a total gain of 34 or 16% in the last 4 days.  GOOGL -12.83, AMZN -32.84 (90 off its highs of Thursday), AAPL -1.20 (earnings tomorrow), FB -3.33, NFLX -2.34, NVDA -3.39, TSLA -11.50, and IBM -+.03. These stocks are not done with the downside.  They will bounce, but the damage done may not be repaired with a 2 or 3 day rally.

 

The financials were higher with GS +1.63, JPM +.71, BAC +.09, C +1.00 and XLF + .18.  The oil continued its move higher and regained $50 overnight followed by a little pullback but closed $50.17.  The stocks mixed to lower with CVX +1.27, XOM +.44, APC -.67, OXY -1.31, COP +.09, BP +.04, PSX +.12, RIG -.04, MRO -.04, HES -.20 and XLE +.18.

 

Retail was also mixed after a strong open based on comments made about how to survive Amazon by cashing in on real estate values.  The target company was DDS, Dillards and after a 10 day run from 54 to 78 (41%) it opened up @ $83.44 and then collapsed to 73.  I guess someone figured out that it makes it look like the company might be in liquidation.  It took the wind out of the retail sails (intentional) and finished the day at $73.82 -5.05, M -.18, JWN +.01, SHLD -.49, JCP -.12, WMT +.20 and XRT -.16.

 

Some other moves of interest were DVAX +6.60 (71%) on approval of a new Hep-B drug, HTZ -3.74 (21%) on the makeup of their fleet and soft used car prices, SNI up from 67 for a deal to be bought @ $90 cash and stock from DISCA, SLCA -5.00 on an earnings miss, CLVS -13 on news that actually looked positive for a collaboration with BMY +1.63 and up from 52 in the last 3 days.  The rest of the Bio /Pharma group was notably weak with the IBB-2.73, CELG+1.31, ALXN -.65, REGN-16.71, SRPT-1.81, VRTX -2.11, BIIB +2.56, AMGN -.03, INCY -2.45, ISRG -2.94, TSRO -6.49, ATHN -1.61, and ICPT -17 (13%) even though they beat top and bottom lines and had favorable results in a late trial drug.

 

It’s getting a little dangerous out there and with the VIX so low, protection is a must.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM 

 

   

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After the close 7/27/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 28th

And then they rang the bell.

 

Todays’ market started to the upside guided by some major names reporting gains and on the earnings front. And as the subtitle says, right around 12:45 it was as if someone “rang the bell” for everyone to sell everything.  That quote is often used to explain that “no one rings a bell at the top or bottom.”  But you certainly would have thought that was the case as they battered the NASDAQ names.  AMZN had traded to a new all-time high of 1083, and an hour later we were 1040. Then the stock broke yesterday’s low and as all good talking heads started on the “KEY reversal day” mantra.  As if it needed any more bad news, the earnings were a miss and the stock traded 1001-51 and is now trading 1015 -37.

 

We came into the day flat and I used the highs of 248 on the SPY, bought puts using the highs as a stop.  We lost the first half position at 100% up (.48) and sold the balance too early @ $.72 before they went to $1.86.  While licking my wounds over the early sale, I saw some support and bought the 247 calls paying $ .19, and sold them on 100% rule at $.38 and the balance at $.44 since they expire tomorrow and I’ll be traveling and unable to put out texts.

 

By the end of the day the big names closed well off the lows but down pretty hard with GOOGL -18.30 (10 OFF LOW), AAPL -3.78, FB -4.29, NFLX -5.98, NVDA -5.96, TSLA -9.15, BA +7.35, and IBM -.36.

 

The earnings misses were TWTR -2.81, AZN -5.86 (15%), AMAT -1.41 and that hurt the group with TER-2.42, and LRCX -3.50.  BMY -1.74, UPS -4.50 (even though they beat), PG -1.38, MA -2.06, SBUX-2.50, and NUVA -12.72 (beat but COO and CFO left). The winners on beats were TREE +34 (missed bottom line but beat Rev and gave good guidance), VZ +3.41 (7.6%), MRK +1.89, RTN +.65, XLNX – 1.48 after being up 3), and DEO +6.62. Also up was ADP+9.65 on the rumor Bill Ackman was the buyer and SNI + 2.34, but has moved from 67 to 86 on a takeover.

 

Retail got a boost on JWN +1.34, talking buyout again, M+.66, KSS +1.27, DDS +3.89, SHLD +.54, JCP +.18, WMT +.88 and XRT +.56.  Oil was up again with CVX +.99, XOM +.54, APC+1.87, COP+.96, BP+.18, PSX +.81, RIG+.07, MPR+.19, MRO+ .07, HES +.51 and XLE +.71

 

Financials were quiet with GS-1.10, JPM-.39, BAC-.11, C-.38 and XLF-.14.

 

All kidding aside, they don’t ring a bell and this is going to be an interesting couple of days coming up to see if buying the dips continues to work.  But no matter what, days like today are a warning of how bad it can get. The ones that got hurt got that way VERY  quickly, so use stops or write against positions with big gains.  It’s amazing how fast those profits can erode.  Or buy some puts, they are a cheap way to protect yourself.

My report on FAANG stocks went out yesterday, but if you want a copy, simply write the word “REPORT” in the subject line and I will send you a copy.  WE DO NOT RESELLTHE INFORMATION and you will not receive unsolicited email from us.

Send your email to Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

CAM

 

               

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After the close 7/26/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 27th

 

Todays’ market started to the upside guided by some major names reporting gains and some losses.  On the upside we had BA open up 8.65 and then run up and close +20.99 or 10%.  This is a major feat for a company of this size.  Other gainers were IRBT +18.95, AMD + .65 after being up 1.63, KO +.50 but with a much larger than normal range of 1.50, T +1.81, X +1.76, VRTX + 1.45 but also +30 in the past week and GILD +2.15.  The misses were also notable with USG -2.08, MMM -.36 after it couldn’t hold a 2.00 rally, AKAM – 7.79, WNC -2.75, UHS -10.22, TGI -6 (18%), AMGN -5, GD -9.37 after being -13, TSCO even after -4, GWW -2.85, BWLD -8.65 after trading -14, AND THE STAR OF THE AFTER-MARKET, FB from a minor miss and trading at 158 -6.50, only to rally back to 173, and now $172.21 +8.16, truly amazing !!

 

So, the entire move in the DJIA was from 1 stock, BA, as the internals were 1:1 A/D and 3:4 volume down.  Over on the NASDAQ we were only slightly better with volume 1.5:1 up and A/D 1:1.

 

We have also gotten into the XBI (Bio ETF) and that group was mixed again today after trying to break to the upside.  This is my default group for a rotation away from the FAANG, or the Oil, or the Retail sectors.  With the exception of the AMGN being down almost 3% on the earnings miss, the rest of the group was strong in an unimpressive day in the averages with IBB +2.71, CELG +2.06, ALXN +5.15, SRPT -.17, VRTX +1.03, BIIB +12.04 (4.26%), AMGN -5.06, INCY + 3.62, ISRG -1.01, TSRO +1.11, and ATHN down 7.42 (4.87%) with no news besides a raise in price objective.

 

Oil was up again and is trading unchanged tonight at just under $49.  The stocks were mixed with CVX +.61, XOM + .14, APC -.55, OXY +.58, COP +.14, BP +.04, PSX -.75, RIG -.24, MPC - .09, MRO -14, HES -1.84, and XLE +.07.

 

Retail was mixed also with M +.8, JWN -.23, KSS +.20, DDS +.48, SHLD -.05, JCP +.05, WMT +.40 and the XRT unchanged.

 

 

My report on FAANG stocks went out LAST WEEK, but if you want a copy, simply write the word “REPORT” in the subject line and I will send you a copy.  WE DO NOT RESELLTHE INFORMATION and you will not receive unsolicited email from us.

Send your email to Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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he close 7/25/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 26th

 

Todays’ market started to the upside guided by some major names reporting gains and some losses.  On the upside we had MCD +7.22, CAT +5.36, and DD +1.4413%.  The losers were evident as well with MMM -10.72, STX -6.56 after being 2.50 lower, WDC -.87 after being 4 lower, LOGI -4 but 4.20 off the low, UTX -2.74, SANM – 4.82, DGX – 1.26 and 3 off the low, IONS -4.85, LII -4.38 on top of yesterday’s -5, WAT -9.90 after 4 lower, JJSF -7.96 after 3 lower.  After the close we had a beat by TXN +2.88 after -2 earlier, IRBT +20.21, WYNN -5.03, CMG + 19.69, and X, a major beat and +3 @ 27.15 for a move of  13%, and T +.87.  Other new hurt PCRX -6.05 (12.4%) and CUR $2.81 -2.77 (49%) on misses in clinical trials.

 

KORS bought Jimmy Choo for $1.2 billion and was + .02 after being -2.50 on sentiment over the purchase price paid.  APC was cut by a broker and still closed +1.51 on the strength in the oil.  The rest of the oils were universally higher with Oil+1.54 and CVX +1.41, XOM +.80, OXY +2.09, COP +1.34, BP +.61, PSX +1.80, RIG +.39, MPC +.46, MRO +.46, HES +1.24 and XLE +1.25.

 

Retail was also stronger with M +.80, JWN +1.19. KSS +.51, DDS +5.56 (8.24%), SHLD +.19, WMT +1.63, and XRT +1.05.

 

Weighed down by GOOGL -30 (3%) the big names were mixed with AMZN +.26, AAPL +.75, FB -.65, NFLX - .82, NVDA +1.27, TSLA -3.02 but 5 off the lows, BA + .28 and IBM +.11.

 

Banks were higher along with the 10 year notes with GS +3.40, JPM +1.52, BAC +.62, C +2.03 and XLF +.31.

 

Market internals were good, but not excessive for a day when all indexes made new all-time highs except the DJIA.  NYSE A/D were 3:2 while volume was 8:3 and over on the NASDAQ A/D was 4:3 with volume 5:4.

 

We sold the SPY calls bought yesterday @ $ .54 for $1.41 on the 100% Up Rule and the second half @ $1.09. We also bought a half sized position in XBI (Biotech ETF).  This group looks like it has a ways to go on market rotation.

 

In later news APRN COO announced his departure with the stock down 30% since going public just 18 trading days ago.

 

My report on FAANG stocks went out yesterday, but if you want a copy, simply write the word “REPORT” in the subject line and I will send you a copy.  WE DO NOT RESELL THE INFORMATION and you will not receive unsolicited email from us.

Send your email to Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 7/24/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 25TH

 

Todays’ market started to the downside in a minor way based on more earnings.  This is the biggest week for earning in the S&P500 and we have seen big moves in both directions.  After the close GOOGL posted a beat and the stock shot up from 998 +4.47 to $1020 before all the numbers and discussion pushed the stock back down to 965 and currently is $970.  Others were HAS, -4 preopen and then closed $105-10.95, HIBB -3.90 preopen and closed $13.10-6.60 or 33%, also down on the HIBB news were DKS lowered to market perform by Telsey and closing $35 -2.04 and FL -2.16 on the trend to Ecommerce. MAN missed and was – 3.50 premarket and finished the day at $108.18- 10.65.  On the other side of earnings was a beat by SGMS +7.30 (27%), and a strong recommendation by BMO on CAT+1.59.

 

On the takeover side we saw NDRM @ $39 closed $38.35+5.15 and WBMD @ $66.10 on a cash deal @ $66.

 

The badly beaten down auto replacement stocks were lower again with ORLY -3.76, AAP -2.10 and AZO -13.21.  None of these stocks have been able to move through the top of the gaps left earlier this month.

 

The market internals were slightly negative on the NYSE with volume 5:3 and A/D 4:3 down while over at NASDAQ they were 9:7 and 15:13 UP respectively.  The big names were mixed and under the influence of the coming GOOGL earnings (now trading 968 -25.85), AMZN +9.33, AAPL +.96, FB+.27, NFLX -1.22, NVDA -3.40, TSLA +13.50, BA +.11 and IBM -1.03.  Several of these report this week and the NASDAQ closed at a new all-time high @6410 +23 so there’s not a lot of forgiveness for a miss.

 

Both oil and the US$ were higher today with oil closing at the high of the day and +$ .71. Surprisingly the stocks were mostly lower with CVX -.05, XOM -.31, APC -1.71, COP -.04, BP-.63, PSX -.20, RIG -.06, MPC +.22, MRO +.01, HES +1.54 and XLE -.21.

 

The rotation into Bio /Pharma continued with IBB+2.46, CELG +.10, ALXN -1.05,REGN +5.30, SROT+.49 EVEN AFTER ANNOUNCING A $250mm OFFERING, VRTX +2.94, BIIB +3.03, AMGN +.85, INCY +4.05, ISRG +21.70, and ATHN – 1.10.

 

Retail was soft with M -.71, JWN -.94, KSS -1, DDS -.45, SHLD -.44, JCP +.01, WMT +.52 and XRT -.60.  Last, Financials were mixed with GS the only loser -1.88, JPM +.11, BAC +.11, C +.10, and XLF +.14.  The banks look like the group is consolidating prior gains with only the GS the only one that has broken the 200 day moving average.  If it doesn’t recover I am concerned that the group will weaken.  GS is a DJIA heavyweight and as such hurts the group and the Dow.

 

My report on FAANG stocks went out last week, but if you want a copy, simply write the word “REPORT” in the subject line and I will send you a copy.  WE DO NOT RESELL THE INFORMATION and you will not receive unsolicited email from us.

Send your email to Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 7/20/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 21ST

 

Todays’ market started to the downside in a minor way based on more earnings.  The list is long and distinctive with HD -6.13, LOW -4.14, WHR -8.64, PPG -6.63, SHW -12.37, CHKP -8.20, BBY -2.2, SKX  -3.47, POOL -10.52 (10%), and that was just the morning.  After the close we had some more notables with MSFT +1.56, COF +3.96, V (unch) after a minor beat and EBAY a slight beat but still -2.58.

 

The oil started to the upside but after trading $47.74 it came back in to close below $47 and down .36.  The group was mostly lower with CVX +.17, XOM +.02, APC -1.07, OXY -.37, COP -.16, BP +.07, PSX -.56, RIG -.14, MPC -.15, MRO -.15, HES -.89 and XLE - .13.

 

The medical and Bio / Pharma sector was again strong with the ETF (IBB) +3.29 or $20. In the last 8 days, CELG +1.31, ALXN +2.51, REGN +14.34, SRPT +6.62 (19%), VRTX -.36 after yesterday’s 27 move,  BIIB -.51, AMGN -.02, ISRG +5.41, TSRO +5.00, and the big winner on earnings after the close…ATHN +12.12 or 8.45%.

 

Retail got a major uptick on the news that SHLD would be selling their Kenmore appliances on AMZN. SHLD was up over 10.75 but closed 9.65 +.97(11%), TJX -.70, M +.07, JWN +.16, KSS +.26, WMT +.17, DDS +1.30, RL +.79, ANF +.08, JCP - .04 and XRT +.09.

 

The big names were mixed but still up for the 10th day in a row with GOOGL-1.40, AMZN -2.67, AAPL -.60, FB +.56, NFLX -.36, NVDA +2.07, TSLA +3.74, BA -.40, IBM + .27 after yesterday’s debacle, and MSFT which reported after the close with a beat top and bottom +2.79.

 

The market internals were a little soft today with NYSE volume 3:4 and A /D 1:1 while the NASDAQ was 1.5:1 volume and 15:13 A/D.

 

My report on FAANG stocks went out yesterday, but if you want a copy, simply write the word “REPORT” in the subject line and I will send you a copy.  WE DO NOT RESELL THE INFORMATION and you will not receive unsolicited email from us.

Send your email to Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 7/19/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 20th

 

Todays’ market started to the downside in a minor way based on the IBM earnings. Also the UAL earnings were okay, but guidance was weak due to the competition out of China and the Far East in general.  We had an order below the market in LUV calls that was filled on a gap down, even though they fly only domestically.  The follow-thru on the IBM earnings from last night as the stock opened @$150.02 and continued down to close $147.53 -6.55.

 

Even with the IBM news, the rest of the market was higher from the start and continued that move all day.  We closed at new highs across the board with S&P500 +13.22, NASDAQ +40.73, Russell +14.16 and even with the 50 points that IBM took off the DJIA, we still closed +66.02.

 

The after the close earnings of AXP (beat) +1.70 right after, losing it on the conference call comments - .67, QCOM (in line but poor guidance) 1.23, and TMUS (beat on both but halted) reopened and is now +$3 , PTC -7.15(12% on in line numbers), CHRW (miss) -$6 (8.6%) and AA  -.69 on miss.

 

Oil was higher and all that I follow were higher with CVX +.41, XOM +.01, APC +1.21, OXY +.65, COP +.46, PSX +.96, RIG + .51(6%), MPC +.72, MRO +.56(4.8&), HES +1.58 and XLE +1.04.  Retail was mixed to slightly higher.

 

The big names (with the exception of aforementioned IBM) were higher with BA making up for its loss yesterday and +2.64, GOOGL +5.82, AMZN +2.42, AAPL +.72, NFLX +.25, NVDA -.68, TSLA -2.84.  Financials were also mixed with GS -.36, JPM + .08, BAC +.13, C -.19, and the XLF +.01.

 

The star today (besides the indices) was Bio /Pharma with news, VRTX +27, SRPT +4, REGN +9.16, BMRN +.56, ALXN + .56, CELG +.73, OCUL +.21 and IBB +4.49.  LABU (LEVERED 3x) +2.30.

 

All In all, it was a record day with internals that were strong but not excessive, with NYSE 4:1 volume and 3:1 A/D while NASDAQ 2:1 on both.  This market may be approaching a necessary pull back or sell off, but the way it feels is that there will probably be a "blow-off" upside on capitulation.  The A.A.I.I. are still constructive for the bulls and you can be fairly sure that the public will rush in and we will turn down.

 

My report on FAANG stocks went out this morning, and if you want a copy, simply write the word “REPORT” in the subject line and I will send you a copy.  WE DO NOT RESELLTHE INFORMATION and you will not receive unsolicited email from us.

Send your email to Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 7/18/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 19th

 

Todays’ market started to the downside in a major way based on the bank earnings.  The biggest point and percentage loser was GS -5.81, BAC -.12, JPM -.35, C+.05 and XLF -.04.  This market is not reflected by the DJIA since the bank stocks and some earnings were in that index, since both S&P500 and NASDAQ were both higher on the day, and market internals were not reflective of the decline.

 

The oil had a good day with strong action overnight.  It was over $47 for a short while and then sold off to $46.25 before recovering with a close +.22 and mid-range.  The stocks were mostly lower with CVX -.66, XOM -.27, APC -1.59, OXY +.26, COP -.19, BP + .08, PSX +.40, RIG -.06, MPC +.36, MRO +.11, HES-.23 and XLE -.46.

 

The big names were up, with the exception of BA -.75 and IBM -2.33.  GOOGL +10.99, AMZN+14.62, AAPL +.64, FB +3.07, NFLX +21.90 (follow thru from earnings yesterday), NVDA+1.96 and TSLA + 8.96.

 

Earnings were also the highlight for HOG -5 preopen and a close of 48.95 -3.05 but near the high of the day.  Also on the earnings front was LMT slightly higher early near 293, but a close of 286.79 -1.70, and ERIC $6.07 – 1.21 or 16.6%.

 

Retail was lower again after the little bit of short covering earlier this week with M-.37,  TJX -.4, JWN-1.14, KSS -.17, WMT -.15, DDS -.70, RL -.52, SHLD -.04, ANF +.22, JCP -.18, and XRT -.10.  To some this looks like it is getting overdone, but until we start to see some consolidation or M&A activity XRT can be sold on rallies.

 

Also in the news were PBYI +10 preopen and +7.35 on a new breast cancer drug,

VRTX 164 +35 on a new drug for cystic Fibrosis, and unfortunately for them, CMG -18 on new possible health scare.  The company has learned that the issue is a Norovirus, which has nothing at all to do with their ingredient suppliers. This may be a buying opportunity ahead of the earnings July 25th.

 

I am working on a short report that you can receive by just Emailing the word REPORT in the subject line at:

Info@moneyinfo-llc.com.  We do not sell any information to anyone and you will not receive any unsolicited mail from us.  I think this report, centering on the FANG stocks and their relationship to the health of the overall market is a must read…THE REPORT GOES OUT TONIGHT.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 7/17/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 18th

 

Todays’ market was an excellent example of summer trading.  No volume and no range for the markets.  Market internals were about as flat as they get; NYSE 4:3 volume and 4.3 A/D, NASDAQ slightly negative with 7:8 volume and 15:13 A/D.  It couldn’t be much more boring.

 

We, however had a pretty good day since our letter had an order to buy JBHT Aug. 95 calls @ $ .95 or better and they reported earnings before the open.  It was a minor miss and the stock opened down $2.25 and the options opened $ .71 where we got filled and almost immediately it rallied to $94.45 and we sold half on our 100% Up Rule @ $1.50.  We booked a gain of $474 (total cost 852 proceeds 900) so we have 6 left with no cost and a close @ $1.40 giving us $840 equity.

 

The big names were higher with the exception of TSLA, -7.58 on comments made by Elon Musk over the weekend.  GOOGL +3.09, AMZN +9.94, AAPL+.85, NFLX +17.88 on an earnings beat just after the close, BA +.49, and IBM -1.16.

 

Also having a tough day was APRN-.75 or 10% on the AMZN announcement that they are rolling out a service to compete in the “ingredient delivery, you cook” market.  APRN was an IPO just 12 days ago @ $10.00.

 

The financials were mixed, and some have earnings this week.  GS +.90, JPM -.86, BAC-.13, C +.22 and XLF -.08.  Oils were mixed on the softness of the crude.  CVX-.20, XOM-.29, APC +.47, OXY +.24, COP -.07, BP-.03, PSX -.12, RIG +.06, MPC +.50, MRO -.05, HES -.34 and XLE -.12.

 

I am working on a short report that you can receive by just Emailing the word REPORT in the subject line at:

Info@moneyinfo-llc.com.  We do not sell any information to anyone and you will not receive any unsolicited mail from us.  I think this report, centering on the FANG stocks and their relationship to the health of the overall market is a must read… The report will be out tomorrow.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 7/13/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 14th

 

Todays’ market was driven by the oil again as we held the lows overnight and while we sold off to 1 tick under $45 we came back and moved over $46.  The Yellen testimony with the Senate produced nothing new.  The stocks were mixed with CVX +.30, XOM +.06, APC+.63, OXY+.34, COP+.02, BP-.46, PSX- .63, RIG+.24, MPC+.08, MRO-.03, HES +.18, and XLE +.23.

 

Another sector that came back after getting routed last week had a bounce was the auto replacement parts with AZO+13.66, AAP+2.28, and ORLY+7.53.

 

Retail also came back to life with TJX +1.03 (earnings), M+.86, JWN +.72, KSS+1.78, WMT+1.11, DDS+3.56, RL+.63, SHL D+.55, ANF +.14, JCP +.34 and XRT +.90.  It will take a couple of days before we find out if this is a “dead cat bounce” or the beginning of a real move.  No matter what the sector, they don’t go up or down forever, and this one is subject to a short-covering rally after a long decline.

 

It’s hard to figure out why TSRO was down $10.34 on the day after being down $20 with all the news and buy recommendations of the past 3 or 4 days, but the IBB was +1.23 with BIIB+3.28, CELG +.91, ALXN+1.97, BMRN+1.49, VRTX-.52, INCY +.20 and REGN+8.05.

 

Earning on the financials start tomorrow.  It seems that buy the time we cycle through all of the S&P500 names it’s time to start again.  The group was higher today with GS+3.11, JPM +.86, BAC+.29, C+.10, and XLF +.19.

 

While the big names were mixed today with GOOGL+1.19, AMZN-7.04, AAPL+2.04, FB+.30, NFLX+.14, NVDA-1.61(breaking a 7 day run up), TSLA-5.92, BA-.21, and IBM-.07, they were higher this morning and gave back a bit.

 

BTW, my report looks at the relationship between these big names and some former “darlings” including CYBR, which just gave weaker than expected Q2 numbers is trading $42-8 or almost 16%. The report will be ready tonight or tomorrow so be sure to follow the instructions below to get it while it’s still timely.

 

 

I am working on a short report that you can receive by just Emailing the word REPORT in the subject line at:

Info@moneyinfo-llc.com.  We do not sell any information to anyone and you will not receive any unsolicited mail from us.  I think this report, centering on the FANG stocks and their relationship to the health of the overall market is a must read…

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 7/12/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 13th

 

Todays’ market took off like a shot.  Between the oil rally and Auntie Janet’s questioning before the Congress there was no doubt that these fit the bull market recipe for a triple digit gain.  Unfortunately the oil couldn’t hold the gain and sold off from $46.50 to close only slightly higher at $45.49, 75% down on the range.  The oil is trading down $.12 right now.  The oil stocks were mixed with CVX -.68, XOM +.40 (upgraded from hold to buy), APC-.15, BP +.35, COP-.14, OXY-.23, PSX-.10, RIG-.04, MPC-.44, MRO -.10, HES +.18 and XLE +.18.

 

There was not a question in the big names as the DJIA+123 and at a new high and GOOGL+ 16.22, AMZN +12.72, AAPL -.08 (on production questions for IPhone 8), FB+3.64, NFLX +4.72, NVDA+7.42, TSLA +3.30, BA-.10, and IBM +.24.

 

Even retail got a lift with 9 of the 12 I follow higher.  M+.07,JWN +.05, KSS +.24, WMT+.48, DDS+1.22, RL -.50, SHLD +.04, ANF-.28, JCP+.06, KORS+.05 and XRT +.39.

 

The dovish posture by the Fed was a drag on the financials as rates fell.  GS+.42, JPM-.28, C+.13, and XLF +.08.  The Bio / Pharma names were mixed today with BIIB+3.32, CELG+1.31, ALXN +.62, BMRN-1.35, VRTX-.73, INCY+1.30, REGN+4.99, and IBB +2.00.

 

The report below will be ready to go out tomorrow night or Friday so be sure to follow the directions so you can get it early, while it is still timely…

 

I am working on a short report that you can receive by just Emailing the word REPORT in the subject line at:

Info@moneyinfo-llc.com.  We do not sell any information to anyone and you will not receive any unsolicited mail from us.  I think this report, centering on the FANG stocks and their relationship to the health of the overall market is a must read…

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 7/11/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 12th

 

Todays’ market started to the downside in a minor way and tried to rally but couldn’t get past yesterday’s close for very long and we got long the SPY 242 puts just above the lows of the day only to watch the cascade down by $1.50 in just under 15 minutes on a Trump Jr. reveal of some emails during the campaign.  We then rallied back from DJIA -130 to close unchanged and little changed S&P500 and NASDAQ.  The market internals were almost identical with both roughly 15:14 up, but the NYSE ran behind NASDAQ with 1.3:1 A/D vs. 2:1.

 

The oil had a great day with a start to the upside and moved $1.40 to $45.20 and then consolidated until the Crude drawdown was reported and it flew up to $45.80.  Tonight it is trading $44.77+.73.  The stocks rallied with all but 1 on my list, PSX -.11.  The rest were CVX +.96, XOM +.72, APC +.52, OXY +.73, COP +.43, BP +.19, RIG +.13, MPC +10, MRO +.25, HES +1.14 and XLE +.63.

 

The big names were up, with the exception of AMZN (+18 yesterday) -1.97, GOOGL +2.53, AAPL + .49, FB+ 1.70, NFLX +1.85, NVDA+2.63, TSLA+11.75, and BA +2.63.  The Bio / Pharma group was mostly higher again with ARNA continuing yesterday’s move to close +7.38 or 40%.  CELG +.32, ALXN +.56, BMRN +1.12, VRTX +3.51, INCY +2.38, and IBB +2.17.  Another Pharma name, although much smaller, OCUL was +1.11 (17%) during the day was sued for misinforming the public traded -2.45 (32%).  The FDA is asking for more information.

 

Retail was finally “mostly” higher on the day with M+.10, JWN +.22, KSS +.12, WMT+.37, DDS+1.09, RL-.68, SHLD +.14, ANF-.33, JCP +.09 and XRT +.04.  The biggest loser in this group is KORS -2.73 (7.6%) on a downgrade by MKM.

 

I am working on a short report that you can receive by just Emailing the word REPORT in the subject line at:

Info@moneyinfo-llc.com.  We do not sell any information to anyone and you will not receive any unsolicited mail from us.  I think this report, centering on the FANG stocks and their relationship to the health of the overall market is a must read…

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 7/10/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 11th

 

Todays’ market tried to get started to the upside but only in a nominal way trading from down a couple to up a couple without much action.  The group that defied this inaction was our old friend retail.  It started with ANF sliding from a close at $12.16 Friday to early trading just under $11, and then down to $9.47-2.65 or 21%, based on their announcement that they were giving up on efforts to sell themselves.  As if that wasn’t enough, COST was downgraded by BMO based upon the AMZN / WFM merger.  As anyone in the retail stocks knows by now, it doesn’t take much to bring in the sellers. And sell they did; M-1.53 (6.75%), JWN-1.32, KSS-1.54, WMT-2.08, DDS-1.86, RL-.28, ANF-2.56 (21%), JCP-.10 and XRT-.95.  In addition, electronics also participated with BBY-3.75 (6.9%) and TGT -.89. Several of the rent to own companies might have done a little better in this retail climate, like HGG, but they went bankrupt last year.  RCII was a $0 stock that closed $11 -.21, and CONN, an $80 number closed $18 -.10 but up from $7.50.

 

Oil was lower overnight but after holding just over $43.50 got a bid and rallied to $44.80 but could only manage a close of  44.40 +.17.  It’s a little higher tonight but we’ll have to wait until tomorrow to see if it continues to hold.  The stocks were mixed with CVX -.46, XOM-.07, APC+.23, OXY =.09, COP +.24, BP-.10, PSX-.14, RIG+.17, MPC +.18, MRO +.06, HES +.41 and XLE +.21.

 

The big names were universally higher with GOOGL +9.19, AMZN +19.23, AAPL +.77, FB +2.08, NFLX +2.31, NVDA +7.04, TSLA +3.28, BA +1.63 and IBM +.48.

 

The market internals were mixed with the NYSE volume 4:3 up and A/D 1:1, buy NASDAQ was 8:7 up volume but 1.5:1 down A/D.  My special report, due out by the end of this week (maybe sooner) looks at this divergence, so be sure to follow thru on the signup in the next paragraph.

 

I am working on a short report that you can receive by just Emailing the word REPORT in the subject line at:

Info@moneyinfo-llc.com.  We do not sell any information to anyone and you will not receive any unsolicited mail from us.  I think this report, centering on the FANG stocks and their relationship to the health of the overall market is a must read…

 

After the close Arena Pharm (ARNA) reported positive results on a hypertension drug trial and was trading as high as $27.48 +8, or almost 40%.  Unfortunately for the rest of the group it wasn’t a great day with LABU-2.70 or 4.3%, IBB -2.52, hca-.25, THC+.49, BMRN-.71, VRTX-1.69, INCY-1.28 and CELG -.63.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 7/6/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 7th

 

Todays’ market was soft right from the open with the move in German Bund rates reaching a new recovery high, effectively doubling off the lows.  Futures were lower last night and this morning calling for a down market early.  Unfortunately even a strong rally in the Oil couldn’t help as we hit lows in the S&P500 around 2415 and the bounce couldn’t move thru the top of the gap down open around 2425.  The next trip to the support failed and we moved to 2408 or so and got no rally from there either.  While the summer is known for thin, erratic trading, the market internals were horrid with NYSE volume almost 5:1 down and A/D 4:1.  Over on the NASDAQ the numbers were 4:1 and 3:1 respectively. Looking at my screen there is nothing but a sea of red.

 

L Brands, already down from $75 to 54 (30%) fell another $7.62 or 14% more. This didn’t help the down beaten retail sector with M-.67, JWN-.74, KSS-1.02, WMT+.15, DDS-2.56 (4.4%), RL-2.58, SHLD-.76 (8.8%), ANF-.56, JCP-.17 and XRT-.87.

 

YUMC missed and was down just over 5, but it didn’t seem to matter to the rest of the group with SONC, RICK, RRGB, and JACK were right around unchanged.

 

BGNE was the only standout in the Bio-Pharma group on a collaboration with CELG pushing it higher by $14 to 66.28.  This stock is up from just 30 YTD, and 44, 3 days ago.  CELG could only muster a smaller loss than the rest of the group at 132 -1.25,  with the rest of the group looking very red; HCA-2.41, THC-.87, REGN-6.81, ALXN-3.96, BIIB-5.75, GILD-1.38 and the ETF, IBB-4.84 or 1.54%.

 

It looked like the oil was going to bounce this morning with the futures indicating an up open of about $ .50, but after a great rise against some bad news early, it went on to trade as high as 46.50, only to break back down just after noon moving to as low as 45.20.  The only good thing I can say is that it was an “inside” day and they tend to be inconclusive in the grand scheme of things. Needless to say, with the exception of BP +.02 and MPC +.13, the rest of the list was in the red.  CVX-.84, XOM-.57, APC-1.39, OXY-.87, PSX-.19, MRO-.15, HES-.52 and XLE-.75 or 1.2%.

 

The only NASDAQ big name up was NVDA +.53 with GOOGL-4.57, AMZN-6.26, AAPL-1.50, NFLX-1.51, and TSLA -18.39 or 5.62%.  TSLA has fallen into bear market territory with its drop from $386 to $308 or 21% in just 8 trading days.

 

I am working on a short report that you can receive by just Emailing the word REPORT in the subject line at:

Info@moneyinfo-llc.com.  We do not sell any information to anyone and you will not receive any unsolicited mail from us.  I think this report, centering on the FANG stocks and their relationship to the health of the overall market is a must read…

 

 

The last group to reverse its up day was the financials with GS -1.64, JPM-.29, BAC-.22, C-.78 and XLF -.19.  This group has already had a good pullback from the Election Day rally thru March and is well supported around $23.  My problem with the group is that it is running into overhead resistance around today’s highs @25.20 and is overbought.  This doesn’t give me a positive risk/reward since it can come down 5-8% and still be bullish.

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 7/5/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 6th

 

Todays’ market tried to get started to the upside until the oil got weak and took the Dow with it.  While the S&P 500 and DJIA were down, the NASDAQ started to perform better and we started to rally a bit back to even. At the end of the day DLIA +1, S&P 500 +3.53, Russell -6.54, and the winner is was NASDAQ +41, right near the highs.  However, the internals told a different story, with NYSE volume 1.9:1 down while NASDAQ was 1.9:1 UP and A/D both negative at 1.5:1 and 3:4 respectively.

 

The disaster du jour was a replay of the AutoZone (AZO) earnings miss a couple of weeks ago in O’Reilly (ORLY) with a poor results and guidance. Prior to the open it was trading down 21 @ 199 but followed after the open with a cascade selloff to 173.89 -46.38 (20%) with AZO -46 (10%), AAP -16 (14%) and GPC -4 (5%). These are the biggest names in this business and they are off 30% YTD. With poorer than expected auto sales reported Monday and the average age of used cars of 12-13 years these guys should be hitting it out of the park. All in the group closed at or near their lows.

 

NASDAQ big names were higher with the exception of TSLA -25.68 or 7.28%.  This may turn out to be a problem since it is only another name that has cracked in the FANG group.  GOOGL +12.17, AMZN +18.90, AAPL + .60, FB + 1.29, NFLX +1.01, NVDA +3.48.

 

The oil move ran right through the group with everyone lower on my list; CVX-1.44, XOM-1.10, APC-1.29, OXY-1.51, COP-1.39, BP-.44, PSX-1.01, RIG-.34 (4%), MPC-.20, MRO-.14, HES -2.06 (4.5%) and the XLE-1.33.

 

As I have mentioned both here and in Weekly Strategies that I don’t “believe” in the oil story other than to trade the range, we followed up our position in the OILU position and got stopped out this morning @ $19.84 for a $3.36 profit or $1344, or 20%. Since the move was so swift today I didn’t have the opportunity to buy the SCO with a decent risk profile I will be looking to see if we rally to a lower high or bounce off the bottom of the range to initiate a new position.

 

Retail was lower again with M-.20, JWN -.29, KSS-.28, WMT-.04, DDS-.67, RL-1.75, SHLD-.50 (5.4%), JCP-.08 and the XRT -.69.

 

I am working on a short report that you can receive by just Emailing the word REPORT in the subject line at:

Info@moneyinfo-llc.com. We do not sell any information to anyone and you will not receive any unsolicited mail from us.  I think this report, centering on the FANG stocks and their relationship to the health of the overall market is a must read…

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/29/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 30th

 

Todays’ market was soft from the open but the acceleration down started when the “FANG” stocks broke through some expected areas of support a little after 11:00 AM.  The early gains in several banking names held the market for a while but the volume and declines noted above caused a cascading decline to the lows of the day. Even the oil gains couldn’t produce enough to help.

 

Also influencing the day was the announcement that Walgreens was walking away from its merger with RAD.  WBA was up over $5 premarket but gave up much of that to close at $78.37 +1.28 after selling down to 76.34.  The other participants RAD closed $2.90 -1.03 or 26%, and FRED the buyer of RAD stores to avoid anti-competition closed $9.50 -$2.81 or 23%.

 

The financials were strong based on the Stress test results allowing bigger payouts and buybacks with GS+1.33 (traded +5 earlier), JPM+ 1.33, BAC+.44, C+1.97, and the XLF +.20.  On the big name tech stocks we were GOOGL -23.31(LOW -32), AMZN -14.40 (after -24), AAPL-2.14, FB-2.09, NFLX-3.33, NVDA-4.70, TSLA-10.24 (after -17), BA -2, and IBM -1.20.

 

Oils were mixed to higher with CVX-.16, XOM-.83, APC +1.46, OXY +.51, COP+.10, BP-.41, PSX+.08, RIG + .11, MPC-.35, MRO +.24, HES +.91 and XLE +.19.

 

Some of big movers in the news today were CBI +1.36, COHR -9, NTES -15.33 and two announcing stock offering, GOV -4 in the last 3 days offering 29mm shares, and AKBA , issuing 4.5MM shares was -1.20 but closed on the high at -.40, CARA – 8.85 (30%) on trial results, NKE + 2 on solid numbers. AOBC (formerly known as Smith & Wesson) was $21.80-2.14.

 Retail was mixed with M -.23, JWN-.12, KSS -.46, the major standout was DDS +2.88, RL +.46, SHLD +.49 (6.25%), ANF+.18 and the XRT -.10.

 

We bought a small position today in QQQ 7/7 138.50 calls @ $ .90, closed $ .89. It feels to me like we are due for a bounce and cycle work say tomorrow and Monday (a half day) are stronger going into a national holiday.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6.28/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 29th

 

Todays’ market was strong from the start and regained all of yesterday’s loss.  The market internals were strong with both the NASDAQ and NYSE both showing volume of 4:1 up and A/D 3:1.  The big names all regained their lost luster with GOOGL +13.79, AMZN +14.72, AAPL +2.12, FB +3, NFLX +2.72, NVDA +5.92, TSLA +9.33, and BA + 1.10.

 

Even retail was up as a group with M the only loser and down only .03.  The rest were higher with JWN +.10, KSS +.48, WMT +.66, DDS +1.43, RL +.57 SHLD +.28 and XRT +.33

 

The Pharma, Biotech and assorted medical stocks were universally higher with HCA +.97, THC +.58, REGN +11.07, ALXN +3.70, BIIB +3.39, GILD +1.27, CELG+3.38, ICPT +.98, ACAD +.62, INCY+4.02, BMRE + 3.00 and the IBB +5.99.

 

Oil was higher as a group when the market tried $43.90 early and held it and then with just middling supply and drawdown number it took off and ran to $44.90 and stayed there to close.  Only OXY and COP were losers and then just by pennies.  The rest were CVX +.21, XOM +.42 BP+.14, PSX + 1.24, PSX + 1.25, RIG+.22, MPC+.77, MRO +.08 HES +.88, and XLE +.35.

 

You almost had to be Rep.Chris Collins (R,NY) and owned Innate Immuno Therapeutics,down 92% to have a bad day today.

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/27/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 28th

 

Todays’ market was soft from the open and rallied to around unchanged until after lunch and then we had a downdraft back to test the lows around 2425 (S&P500) and rallied off that test.  We have several bottoms around 2420-2415 from the last several tests of the breakout at the end of last month.  As I noted in the video released with the Weekly Strategies letter Sunday night, all of these consolidation lows and tests have occurred ABOVE the point of breakout last month.

 

Oil had another good day and I continue to feel that the trading range bordered by $42 and $53 remains in effect. This weekly chart

shows what I am talking about. The oil names were mixed to lower with CVX -.43, XOM. -.27, APC -1.12, OXY -.38, COP -.44, BP +.15, PSX +.30, RIG -.15, MPC +.17, MRO -.31, HES - .72 and XLE -.16.

 

Retail was mixed to higher with M+.56, JWN -.13,KSS +.89, WMT+ .1, DDS +.73 RL -.01, SHLD +.36, ANF +.20, JCP +.11 and the XRT..unchanged.

 

Financials were stonger with GS +.06, JPM +.96, BAC =.43 (almost 2%) C +.12 and + .12.

 

The weakness in the “FANG” is finally bleeding into the overall market.  Most of todays loss occurred late in the day when the NASDAQ names.  And they accellerated the big names all closing down hard.  GOOGLS – 21.09, AMZN -16.98, AAPL – 2.42, FB – 3.08, NFLX – 6.41, NVDA -6.15, TSLA -14, and BA- .96.

 

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 6/22/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 23rd

 

Todays’ market was a boring example of a market that really had no news of any substance to drive it higher (at the open) or lower (at the close) by much.  The oil had an overnight and early morning rally but while closing up, it didn’t hold the gain of up $ .80 and closed $42.73 +.20 and near the lows.  The sector (XLE) was -.05, and the individuals were mixed with CVX -.04, XOM-.36, OXY +.33, COP-.14, BP-.03, PSX +.02, RIG +.08, MPC- .56, MRO- .02, and HES +.70.

 

Retail was a bit stronger with M +.40, JWN +1.40, KSS +.74, WMT- .72, DDS +1.39, RL +.52,SHLD +.39, ANF +.15, JCP +.01, and XRT + .26.

 

The focus was on healthcare and it moved higher as the news of the new (and improved?) health care act making its debut in the Senate.  The biotech’s continued their move higher with REGN +4.51, ALXN +2.65, BIIB +1.97, GILD +2.98, CELG +.85, INCY +2.17, ICPT +2.17, and IBB + 3.95.  However, they were joined by drugs and hospitals today with THC +1.22 (7%), GSK +.54, PFE +.18, MRK +.56, LLY +1.67, and BMY +1.26; HCA +2.09, UNH +1.58, ANTM +1.29, and HUM + .79.

 

The financials all passed the new “STRESS” test and were mostly higher with GS-2.02, JPM +.08, BAC- .01, C-13with the XLF -.13.  These will probably edge higher in the morning when retail investors read tomorrow’s headlines.

 

Something else to consider for tomorrow will be the Re-balancing of the Russell.  This happens only once a year when some of the Russell 1000 move to the 2000 or 5000 indexes or up from the lower market capitalized to higher ones.  This may not have any major effect on price, but it usually increases the volume dramatically.

 

The big names were only slightly changed with the exception of TSLA +6.25, GOOGL- 1.97, AMZN- .93, AAPL- .19, FB- .41, NFLX- .1.32, NVDA-1.32, BA +.27, and IBM +.61.

 

The internals were both on the positive side with NYSE volume 4:2.5 up and A/D 4:3 and over on NASDAQ 5:4 and 1.7:1.  A.A.I.I. Sentiment numbers still favor the bears, but these were little changed and will be included in your Weekly Strategies letter on Sunday night.

 

Lastly, there were some earnings reports after the close and BBBY was a miss and went from a $34 close to trade as low as 29.25 -4.25 but has recovered to 30.75.  SONC missed and traded from $28 down to $25.25 but has regained some to $27.10.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/21/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 22nd

 

Todays’ market was a study in just how differently markets can act at the same time.  We started off with both the NYSE and S&P 500 to the downside, and the NASDAQ to the upside.  At the end of the day you would have thought that we were looking at markets operating in two different countries.  The DJIA was down 57, S&P 500 -1.42, and the NASDAQ UP $45.92.  The internals showed the degree of the damage as the volume was over 2:1 down and the A/D were 5:9 lower.  Over on the NASDAQ the picture could not have been more different with volume almost 3:1 UP and the A/D were basically even.

 

As noted in this space the last 3 days, the rotation has moved from “High” tech to “Bio” tech. The list is long and notable with ALXN +4.53, BIIB +12.60, GILD +1.91, CELG  +6.6, ICPT +3.40, ACAD +1.05, BMRN +6.46, REGN+26.69 and IBB +12.51.  For a look my study of the IBB (Biotech ETF) just click on the link below to see a short video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7-IC2qctBU&feature=youtu.be

 

It will give a better perspective of how far this can move.

 

The oil broke to the downside again today after the weekly numbers came out midday and after a somewhat constructive morning, broke $43 and collapsed to just over $42.  We got stopped out of OILU at $16.84 as it fell below $15 to close $15.40 -1.20.  The others were uniformly lower with CVX-1.99, XOM-.91, APC -1.00, OXY- 1.01, COP- .95, BP-.33, PSX-.66, RIG- .37, MPC-1.12, MRO-.40, HES-1.17 and XLE-1.05 or 1.61%.

 

Financials were also slightly lower with GS- 2.59, JPM- .40, BAC- .33, C-.01 and XLF- .20.  The big name list was mostly higher with IBM the only loser -1.15 while GOOGL + 9.60, AMZN +9.57, AAPL +.83, FB +1.63, NFLX +2.95, NVDA +2.36, TSLA +3.61, and BA +.62.

 

Also in the spotlight was Nike (NKE) reported that they may start selling their shoes direct to consumers and was +1.06 while FINL lost $.53 or 4%, FL -2.50 after being down 5.50 (5%), and DKS -1.52 after being $4 lower.

 

Right after the close SCS missed and traded down to 13 or $3.00 lower while ORCL reported both top and bottom and rose to $51.20 +$5.00 OR 10%.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 21st

 

Todays’ market was unchanged to slightly higher at the open but then spent the rest of the day going sideways until a little after 3:00 and doubled its loss to close down $61, but the real losses came in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, both down 2-3 times the percentage loss in the DJIA, while the Russell fell just over 1%.  The internals on the NYSE were 4:1 DOWN volume and 2.5:1 DOWN A/D, while the NASDAQ were 13:12 UP and also 2.5:1 Down A/D.  Not a good showing at all.

 

The break in the Oil was all that most of the talking heads could blame, and the move below $43 was tough to watch, but on the basis of the extremely oversold condition, I bought the OILU (3X leverage) Oil ETF @ $16.42 this morning.  The energy sector was lower across the board with of those I follow were down.  CVX-1.06, XOM-.47, APC- .41, OXY-1.26, COP-.68, BP- 1.07, PSX- 1.69, RIG-.33, MPC-1.44, MRO-.49, HES-1.37 and XLE-.84.

 

The big names were mostly lower with GOOGL- 6.23, AMZN- 1.29, AAPL-1.25, FB -.65, NFLX-1.14, NVDA +.05, TSLA+2.65 (after making a new high+9), BA-.51, IBM+.33 and QQQ-1.06.

 

The same occurred with retail with M-.54, JWN-1.86, KSS  -1.30, WMT +.11, DDS -2.89, RL -.77, SHLD +.40, ANF -.26, JCP-.26, and XRT -.82.

 

FDX had earnings and after closing around 208.95 ran up to 214.89 and down to 209 and settling 210.50.

 

The big gainers were again Biotech names with ALXN +2.89, BIIB+5.46, GILD +.77, CELG+1.06, ICPT -.82, ACAD +.23, INCY +2.30, BMRN+1.01 and the LABU (3x leveraged ETF) +1.94 or 3.4%.

 

And last, the Financials were again weak with GS -1.03, JPM -.43, BAC -.39 C -.53, and the XLF -.21 or .86%.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/19/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 20th

 

Todays’ market was higher from the start.  We had new highs in the DJIA, S&P 500 with closes at the highs of the day.  Market internals were strong but not overwhelming with NYSE volume 2:1 and A/D 1.8:1, while over on NASDAQ it was 4:1 and 2:1 respectively.

 

Premarket we had RICE +5 (25%) on the bid from EQT (finished @ $53.51-5.26).  The other big movers were CLVS +28 on a new cancer drug and TSRO started the day -14 but finished -$1 (competitor of CLVS).  Other early morning movers were NVDA +5.70, SGEN was -$7 but closed -2.64, PTLA -5 but rallied to close +1.44, PHG +2.47, AVGO +5, and RMP -6.26 (26%).

 

But the sector that grabbed the attention was clearly the Bio-techs with ICPT +7.42, ACAD +.89, INCY +4.23, BMRN +2.86, REGN +11.76, VRTX +2.44, CELG +2.80, GILD +.70, ALXN +3.70, BIIB +8.80 and IBB + 7.06.  This group has been sideways for enough time that a close over $300 can bring plenty of attention to these stocks.

 

Oil was weak again and there is some separation from the raw price of oil and the value of these names, but they were still lower.  CVX -.95, XOM -.73, APC -.34, OXY +.20, BP -.05, PSX +.30, RIG -.05, MPC + .52, MRO -.03, HES - .66 and XLE -.42.

 

The big names were all higher with GOOGL +18.23, AMZN +8.17, AAPL +3.12, FB + 2.34, NFLX + .82, NVDA +6.49, TSLA +3.30, BA +2.64, and the XLK +.82.  The last leg of the table was the financials with GS +4.42, JPM +1.97, BAC +.50, C +.56 and the XLF +.25 (having just bounced from $23 a couple of weeks ago.)

 

Last name for tonight is outside my normal parameters for size or wide distribution is LPCN (Lipocine), which “achieved primary endpoints” on a new drug and was $4.02 +.15 at the close but traded over $5.70 +1.68 on the news.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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SPECIAL REPORT

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

SPECIAL REPORT 6/16/2017

Today’s major surprise was the pre-market suspension of trading in Whole Foods (WFM) for news pending.  The news was that Amazon (AMZN) is buying WFM for $42 a share in cash.  The reaction in AMZN was a selloff to -20 or so before people started to figure out what the deal actually means, and rallied $50 to +30.

 

THIS IS A “GAME CHANGER” FOR THE GROCERY MARKET.

 

And it shows with an across the board to everyone, even the majors that have added food recently to their other offerings.  These include WMT -4.50, TGT -6.15, KR -3.65, COST -13, SFM -3, and UNFI -9.  These are major percentage moves to the downside.  The real problem for these companies is the fact, as pointed out by Kroger after beating on both top and bottom lines but gave weaker guidance due to “increased price DEFLATION and the inability to raise prices.”

 

AMZN will now crush margins as they have in other industries.  This is a brutal assault on this sector…

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/15/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 16th

 

Todays’ market was lower overnight and carried right into this morning’s open.  However, after making the lows by 10:30 we recovered almost all of the losses except in NASDAQ stocks.  While the DJIA was down only .07%, and S&P 500 -.22%, the NASDAQ was down .50%.  Market internals weren’t terrible but both had 9:5 negative volume and 2.5:1 down A/D.

 

Many of yesterday’s biotech winners gave some back with AVXS -3.66, CELG -.43, REGN -7.34, BMRN -1.45, ACAD -1.10, ICPT -3.64, and the IBB -2.99 or almost 1%.

 

They had plenty of company since KR reported a beat on top and bottom lines but gave very disappointing guidance and was -5.72 (19%) and it took WFM -2.39 and SFM -2.32.

 

Home builders suffered from economic numbers and although not dramatic they were down with one exception, BZH +.56 with LEN -.84, KBH -.28, HOV -.05 and TOL -.61.

 

The big names were mixed with GOOGL (with a downgrade) closed 959-7.94 after trading as low as 940, AMZN -13.13, AAPL -.85, FB -.40, NFLX + .05, NVDA +.43, TSLA -5.31, BA +2.76 and IBM +.41.  Oils continued lower and took CVX -.27, XOM+.19, APC -1.17, OXY -.72, COP -.03, BP -.13 RIG -.13, HES -1.80 and XLE -.42.

 

Retail was mixed with M -.03, JWN -.32, KSS -.38, WMT -.99, DDS +.06, RL +.98,SHLD -.16, JCP -.08, and XRT -.51.

 

Financials were also soft with GS -3.28, JPM -.52, BAC -.21, and C -.52.

 

Also a drag on the DJIA was NKE -1.73 closing near the daily low.  Acting a bit better was HOG +1.55 while Booz Allen, who gave us Ed Snowden and a few other problems is being investigated by SEC on accounting issues and is trading $34.15 -5.98.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/14/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 15th

 

Today’s early morning shooting remarkably had no effect on the open and early trading.  The best acting groups were healthcare and biotech.  ALXN was +10 while BiiB was -8 on news that the CEO from BiiB to ALXN, AVXS +6, CELG+1.42, VRTZ+2.22, REGN+3.17, BMRN+1.53, ACAD+.33, INCY+1.60, ICPT +2.35 and IBB+ 1.66.

 

The Fed did exactly what was expected and got no response until Chair Yellen spoke and that took the markets to the lows of the day.  We bought SPY 6/244 calls that closed slightly higher than our price.  Another group that had some gains was Defense with LMT+1.94, RTN+1.08, NOC+2.07, GD+.73 and BA+1.29.  The market internals were negative with NYSE volume 3:5 and A/D 13:15 and NASDAQ again soft with volume 4:5 and 3:4 respectively.  The big names were mostly lower with GOOGL -9.49, AMZN -8.78, AAPL -2.04, FB -1.08, NFLX -1.31, NVDA -1.80, TSLA +2.82and IBM -.70.

 

Oil was again lower on bearish statistics this morning and took the group lower including APC which got a downgrade and closed -1.94.  CVX -1.90, XOM -.89, OXY -.98, COP -1.01, BP -.71.  Financials didn’t fare much better on the Fed news with GS+1.27 but JPM -.62, BAC -.24 and C -.19.

 

The metals were higher overnight and early but also came down hard after the rate rise, with HL-.21, NUGT-2.94, GLD -.18 but on the lows, SLV +.07, and AGQ -.02.

 

Futures tonight are decidedly lower with the S&P-500 -7, NASDAQ -27, and DJIA -39, so unless things turn in Asia or Europe overnight we’ll have a down open.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/13/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 14th

 

Todays’ market was higher from the start.  All the big names came out of the gate and made up for last week’s selloff.  Market internals still favored the NYSE with volume and A/D both 2.5:1 while NASDAQ was just 4:3 and 2:1 respectively.  While it wasn’t a particularly big day the oil made its low early and then moved $1 higher before coming back down to close near the highs and + .38.  Gold followed the same pattern opening down $10 near $1260 before making a move to 1271 before closing $1268 unchanged but near the highs.

 

The S&P500 and the DJIA both closed a new highs by a small margin and stocks from all groups (except retail) took part with GOOGL+8.69, AMZN +16.52, AAPL +1.48, FB+2.53, NFLX +1.76, NVDA +1.69, TSLA  +18.69 (helped by Ron Baron who likes it for $1000 by 2020), BA +1.60, and IBM -.07.  Oil, as mentioned was firmer and the oils were mostly higher with CVX - .22, XOM- .23, APC +.92, OXY-.25, COP+.46, BP+.09, PSX+ .42, RIG+ .15 MPC+.13, MRO+ ,13, HES+ 67, and XLE +.14.  Unfortunately the retailers didn’t fare as well with M-.02, JWN-.41, KSS- .28, WMT+.29, DDS-.77, RL-.55, SHLD-.18, ANF-.06, PCP-.06 and XRT +.11.

 

Other assorted movers were CAKE-5.75 (18%), SYNA-4.65, CBRL -3.58, MELI+2.70, IR+1.83, NAV-1.10, EFX+3.51, HUM +3.85, ALXN +5.87, BIIB -4.77, HDP+1.30 (10%), HRB beat and was +3.64, LOXO-3.80, OMER+2.48(14%), PCLN+31, OLED +3.20, SWIR+2, SSNC +1.38, WYNN +3.91and recently up 30%, and NTES 4.77.

 

All in all I very positive day that seems to be saying “buy the dips” is alive and well.  However, tomorrow is Fed announcement day and while the rate rise seems in the bag, one never knows what the comments at the press conference will contain.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/12/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 13th

 

Todays’ market was another pretty boring affair.  After the open without major follow-thru to the downside we rallied slightly and then stayed in a narrow range until the end of the session when we rallied to just under unchanged and closed there.  The market internals were pretty close to Friday’s with the NYSE volume of 5:4 up and A/D were 1:1.  NASDAQ was 3:5 down with its A/D 3:4.

 

The big NASDAQ names were mixed with GOOGL -8.69, AMZN -14.76, AAPL -3.62, FB – 1.03, NFLX -6.28, NVDA +1.26, TSLA +1.55 with none closing anywhere near their lows.  BA was +.24 and IBM +1.08.  Energy was higher with the oil rallying to almost $47 and finished up @$46.08, and the stocks were mostly higher with CVX +1.62, XOM +.92, APC +.34, OXY -.16, COP +.90, BP -.04, PSX +.64, RIG +.14, MPC -.13, MRO + .08, HES -.11 and XLE +.42.  Retail was also mixed with M unch, JWN -.69, KSS +.23, WMT - .18, DDS +.59, RL -.45, SHLD -.03, ANF -.10 and XLE +.13.

 

Financials and metals were both mixed to lower with GS -.53, JPM -.06, C -.11and BAC +.13.  GLD was +.30, SLV -.23, NUGT -.43 and HL -.28.

 

All in all, a quiet day ahead of the Fed’s 2 day meeting.

Tomorrow is another day.

CAM

 

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After the close 6/8/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 9th

 

Todays’ market was dominated by the news from BABA (+16.70) that revenues were exploding.  This took the other related stocks higher, but they couldn’t hold up.  SINA  from +2.50 to -4.14, BIDU from +3 to -1.77, and JD +3 to +.74.  The other big story was JWN (+7.50 to+4.15) could be taken private by the Nordstrom family.  One on the downside was NLNK, a smallish biotech that lost its partner and closed $6.24-4.38.  ENDP had an opioid pulled by the FDA and went from +1.38 to -1.83.

 

The internals improved on a barely changed day with the NYSE volume 1:1 and A/D 4:3 while NASDAQ was 2:1 on both measures.  That didn’t help the auto aftermarket stocks which have been under pressure since last week with AAP -4.70, ORLY -4.72, and AZO -8.60.  The big names were mixed but with some standouts; GOOGL +2.01, AMZN -.97, AAPL -.61, FB +1.48, NFLX -.01, NVDA +12.42, TSLA +10.60, BA +1.83, and IBM +1.12.

 

The 3-D printers winked back to life with VJET +.81 (16%), DDD+.48, XONE +.27, and SYSS +.70.  Some old favorites saw a little weakness without headlines CHTR -8.43, CMCSA -1, SBUX -1.50, IFF (part of the original “nifty fifty”) -2.71, HUM -3.49, and SNAP -.76.

 

Financials caught a bid today with the Dodd / Frank rollback vote with GS +2.91, JPM +.37, BAC +.38.  Retail got a boost from the JWN news but fell back with M -.05, KSS-.85, WMT -.22, SHLD-.12, JCP-.25 and the XRT -.12.  Oil also tried several times but fell short also: CVX +.23, XOM -.29, APC-.54, OXY-1.23, COP-.44, BP-.60, PSX +.44, RIG-.20, MPC-.08, MRO-.10, HES -1.31 and XLE -.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/7/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 8th

 

Todays’ market was dominated by the action to the downside in the oil. The market was expecting a drawdown in crude and gasoline and instead got a build in both.  We were weak all day but accelerated during the afternoon and closed down 2.47.  The rest of the group reflected the weakness with EOG -2.68,CVX -.30, XOM -.23, APC -2.79, OXY -.76, COP -.88, BP -.82, PSX -.12, RIG -.46, MCP -.25, MRO -.54,HES -1.95 and XLE -.93.

 

Internals were even on the NYSE, but NASDAQ was 1.5:1 volume and 5:4 A/D.  The big names came back a bit; GOOGL +5.07. AMZN +7.01, AAPL +.90. FB +.39, NVDA +1.86, NTES +11.78, TSLA +7.95, BA +1.20 and IBM -1.39.

 

Some other names of interest, EA +1.68, and TTWO+2.40.  These are electronic gaming companies that have a position in the “watching others play” video games.

WB +4, and OKTA also had nice gains today.

 

We sold half of our position in the SIG 6/55 calls on our 100% Up Rule, bought some BBRY and OILU.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/6/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 7th

 

Todays’ market was a bit soft right from the start, rallied back to even near 2:30 and then faded into the close.  The moves were certainly not extreme and we closed less than .30% across the board.  The internals looked like yesterday with the NYSE volume 1:1 and A/D 13:15 negative.  NASDAQ was a little weaker with volume 5:5 and A/D 5:9 negative.

 

The big names were mixed to lower again with GOOGL -6, AMZN -6.52, AAPL +.61, NFLX unch, NVDA -.71, TSLA +5.68, BA -2.00, and IBM .02.

 

On the earnings side COUP-3.10, PLAY -2, HDS -7.24 (17%), FAST -2.55, AMBA -2.62 THOR +9.57, AMIR +1.76 (buyout), LITE +5.05, MIK -1.65, CASY -9.88, Gii -3.03 and P -.73.

 

Oil again rallied after testing the lows and continued higher.  The oil stocks were higher with CVX +.03, XOM +1.05, OXY +1.53, COP +.31, RIG +.02, BP -.03, HES+.79, and XLE +.77.  Metals gained again and GLD +1.37, NUGT +4.88, SLV +.13, and HL +.19.

 

The retailer were lower again, influenced by an investor day at Macy’s -1.91 (8%), JWN -1.41, KSS -2.12, WMT –1.33, DDS -1.74, SHLD -.21, ANF -.70, JCP -.21, and XRT -.90.

 

Of our positions SIG +1.11, HL +.19, TBT added today.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

    

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After the close 6/5/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 7th

 

Todays’ market was like watching paint dry.  While it was a religious holiday in much of Europe, it seemed like everyone everywhere took the day off.  The high and low in the S&P 500 took place in the first 25 minutes and that was it.  The internals were about the same on both NYSE and NASDAQ with both slightly negative volume, but A/D were both 5:9 negative.

 

This weekend was the ASCO annual meeting in Chicago and there were several big winners in the premarket this morning with LOXO +21.14 (43%}, TGTX +1.60 but finishing unchanged, BLUE +7.15.  ACOR +2.75 (20%) on Parkinson’s drug, and PUMA +10 pre-open but closed + .13.  JUNO -2.81 was a loser along with INCY -7.  Also on the loser side of the ledger were the Auto repair retailers with AZO-5, ORLY -7, and AAP -2.30 on the news that Carl Icahn wants to consolidate the repair business and sell the parts from his already owed Pep Boys and Federal Mogul.

 

The big names were mixed to higher with GOOGL +7.73, AMZN +4.37, AAPL -1.55, FB -.01, NFLX - .12, TSLA +7.40, NVDA +4.37, BA -1.73, and IBM +.36  Financials had a little bounce with GS+.69, JPM +.83 and BAC -.06.

 

Energy bounced overnight on the news out of QATAR but fell back early and during the first half of today.  After a rally back about halfway and finished down only $ .26.  The stocks also lifted and finished mixed with CVX +.01, XOM + .62, APC -.42, OXY -.70, COP -.24, BP +.17, PSX +.50, RIG + .05, MPC +.26, MRO +.06, HES +.36 and XLE +.10.

 

Retailers were mixed to lower with M +.05, JWN -.77, KSS -.58, WMT + .53, DDS - .05, RL +.03, SHLD -.35, ANF-.40, JCP +.07 and XRT -.01.

 

We sold the balance of our SJM calls +80% and added some HL 7/6 calls @ $.23 on an order in the weekly letter from last night.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/1/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 2ND

 

Todays’ market moved to new record highs today and did so right from the start, as the DJIA closed +135, S&P 500 +18.26, NASDAQ +48.31.  The Russell was up 25.85 or a gain of 3X the % or the other averages. The Transports are well below the highs but closed up 113.54 or 1.24% (also 2X the DJIA).  Market internals were very strong with NYSE volume 4:1 and A/D almost 5:1 and NASDAQ 3:1 in both metrics.  The rotation in this market seems to be coming back into view with the big names mixed while the small and midcaps and transports recovered some ground. GOOGL +1.20, AMZN +1.23, AAPL +.37, NFLX + .04, TSLA -.64, BA -.31, and IBM + .04.

 

Earnings were mixed with retailer RH -12.50, LULU +7.38, EXPR -1.50 (20%), and FIVE +2.  Others were WDAY +1.50 and VMW -4.10.  Oil got a lift on drawdown numbers and the entire group benefitted with CVX +.79, XOM +.20, APC +.58, OXY +1.58, COP +.17, BP + .09, PSX +.51, RIG +.16, MPC +1.09, MRO +.08, HES +.76 and XLE +.40.

 

Financials too had a bounce with GS +3.94, JPM + .91, C +.54, WFC + .94 and XLF +.33.  AVGO was -$4.89 at the close but earnings drove it back up to +2.42.

 

We had an especially good day with the SIG calls bought yesterday @ $ .75 when we sold the first half @ $1.50 on our 100% Up Rule and the second half @ $2.70 for a total gain of 180% and we bought the 6/55 calls @ $.64 and they closed $ .83.  Our other positions in SJM +2.38 with our 6/130 calls from $1.65 to $2.80 and offered $3.20.

 

Last, but not least, the metals were lower but an “inside day.”  We bought a little more HL on an average up @ $5.72, SLV (silver ETF) closed near its high and - .04 only while the GLD was -.25 and midrange.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 5/31/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 1ST

 

Todays’ market started to the upside and turned down making its high and low for the day all in the first 40 minutes of trading.  After that the S&P 500 had several 5 or 6 point rallies and declines and finished the day -1.48.  DJIA -20.82, NASDAQ -4.67, DJ TRANS +.24, and the RUSSELL -.98.  The internals were flat with NYSE 6:8 volume and 1:1 A/D, and NASDAQ 10:11 and 14:14.50 respectfully.  But the surprise of the day was the high-flying tech names with GOOGL -1.70, AMZN -9.08, AAPL -.82, FB -.83, NFLX -.07, TSLA +5.91, BA +.75 and IBM +.90.

 

Some of the foreign names followed suit with MELI -4.79, SINA -3.37, WB -1, BIDU -3.78, and BABA -1.45.

 

Earnings driven stocks were mostly higher with ADI +4.34, PRGO +4.93, and JILL +1.48 while KORS was -3.09, HPE –47 even though it beat top and bottom lines, BOX + .45 and PANW +14 after the close.

 

Some of yesterday’s losers rebounded with BIIB -4.25 yesterday +1.23 and REGN -6.50 and +10.39 today.  The auto suppliers fell again after a brief rebound hit the skids again AZO -7.06, ORLY -555, and AAP + .64 after being up $2.

 

But the biggest losses were in energy and the financials.  C-1.10, WFC -1.02, GS -7.16, JPM -1.75 (we got stopped out), and BAC -.44.  The oils were lower except MPC which announced a $3 billion buyback gained .58, CVX -.58, XOM -.60, APC -.24, OXY -1.19, COP -.10, BP -.10, PSX -.89, RIG -.16, MRO + .03, and HES -.78.  

 

We also added some calls in SIG for a bounce here with its short interest of 13.2%, a long decline and 6 down days, oversold and at the bottom of the Bollinger Bands.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/30/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 31ST

 

Today’s selloff looked pretty minor, unless you owned financials, oil, or healthcare / biotech.  Those got taken to the woodshed.  The IBB (Biotech ETF) closed down $3.27 or 1.33% with REGN -6.50, BIIB -4.26, ALNY -1.71, NTNX -1.18, INCY- 4.50, PRTA -2.50, and the LABU (S&P Bio 3X ETF)-2.57 or 5.65%.  The only winner was PTGX, a small bio with a new royalty agreement +3.61 or 43%.

 

Financials were weak with GS- 4.48, BAC -.34 and JPM -1.54 (we bought the 6/86 calls today and will probably be out tomorrow at a loss.  Oil could not have looked worse and while the actual rallied $ .63 from the low and closed down just $ .14, the stocks were beaten down.  CVX -.66, XOM -.45, APC-1.07, OXY -.88, COP -.56, BP -.24, PSX -.14, RIG -.31, MPC -.82, MRO -.40, HES-1.15 and the XLE -.89 or 1.34%.

 

So, what was up?  GOOGL+3.23, AMZN +.68, AAPL +.02, FB +.07, NFLX +.73, TSLA +9.48, although I doubt for the auto sector since FSLR was +2.66, BA +.07  NVDA +3, and lonely IBM -.76.  Some others of interest today were STMP made a new high @ $145 and then collapsed to 133 and closed -6.15, AMBA -4.79, WB -3.38, RH -2.72, MOMO -1.95 and SHPG -5.

 

The markets looked soft all day with the DJIA -.24%, NASDAQ - .11%, S&P 500 -.12%, and the RUSSELL -.80%, but the internals looked terrible.  On the NYSE volume was 272:480 DOWN while stocks were 1100:1800 DOWN; NASDAQ was no better with 761:888 and 1004:1875 respectively.  Remember that the end of the month is often a down day.

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/25/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 26th

 

 

Today’s rally took the S&P 500 to another new closing high @ 2415.07 and we were long the SPY calls that were up 25% before the close and sold the first half on the 100%  Up rule + a gap @ $ .90 at the open.  We also saw earnings reports that were positive for a ULTA (which was down 9 in anticipation but reversed on the beat and moved $27) +16.26.  GME +1.20, DECK +6.43, NTNX +1.05, SPLK -1.66, UHAL -39.69 (10%), HRL-2.27, COST+5.50 but the big winner was BBY +5 pre-open and +11 or 22% by days end.

 

After yesterday’s beats by PVH, GES, and WSM, ANF beat and was +1.16 and gave some life to the retailers. M +.31, JWN +.61, KSS +.93, WMT +.16, DDS+.75, RL+ .06, SHLD+1.00 (13% on earnings), and XRT +.41.

 

Unfortunately the oil market was disappointed by the OPEC meeting and was down to $48.75 -2.61 or over 5.25%.  Everyone on my list was lower with CVX -1.31, XOM -.56, APC -1.29, OXY -.46, COP -1.62, BP -.60, PSX -.87, RIG -.79, MPC -.69, MRO -1.00 and XLE -1.23.  Airlines were higher with JBLU +.44, AAL= 1.25, UAL+2.47 and DAL+ 1.53.

 

Financials were lower with GS -1.37, JPM -.36, and BAC -.11.  The big names were all higher with the race to $1,000 taking the focus with GOOGL 993+15.39 and AMZN 994+13.65.  Others were AAPL + .49, FB +1.92, NFLX +5.30, TSLA +6.28, BA +1.82 and IBM +.69.

 

The only surprise today was the really unimpressive market internals.  On the NYSE we had 350:460 DOWN volume and only 15:14 up stocks.  On NASDAQ we fared better but not much with volume of 11:6 UP and stocks 15:13.  For a day that we made a new high over 6200 on NASDAQ and over 2404 S&P 500, as well as Transports coming close, the Russell was up $ .88 or .06%.

 

Have a great long weekend..                

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/24/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 25th

 

 

Today’s rally took the S&P 500 to a new closing high @ 2404.39 and we were short some SPY puts (expired @ 0) and bought some SPY calls that were up 25% before the close.  We also saw earnings reports that were positive for a couple of retail brands with WSM +4.94, PVH +3.72 and GES +1.54 (15%) while TIF -6.64 and LOW -2.84, and ULTA -9, and CHS -1.25 kept the pace of negative retailers numbers alive.

 

Biotech was on both side of the market also with ALNY -4.90, INO +1.55, ALXN -3.56, PBYI +19 (started the week @37, now 73 on a new drug), AERI+10.80 and GLYC +.13 after making a new high @ $14.80.  After doing some homework on this one it turns out to have a new treatment for several unmet needs and partnerships with several mainstream drug companies.

 

After yesterday’s crush of auto supply stocks AZO recovered slightly +$5 while AAP-8.66 and ORLY-2.50 continued lower.  BWLD +11.25 on a recommendation to vote 2 BOD seats to activists. Some other names in the news; JACK+4, CHTR +10.25, HPQ+1.48(earnings), SBLK -.03, PSTG+1.16, NTAP-2.06 and ANW-3.95 (37%) earnings miss.

 

Oil was basically unchanged but the stocks were all a bit lower with XOM-.29, APC-.07, OXY-.40, COP-.04, BP-.04, PSX-.11 and the XLE-.36.  Financials didn’t fare much better after the Fed minutes with GS+4, while JPM and BAC were down pennies.  Gold and silver were both lower but rallied to close higher and futures are up this evening.  NUGT was +1.43, SLV +.13 and AGQ +.43.

 

The big names were mostly higher with GOOGL +7.12, AMZN + 8.86, AAPL -.55, FB+1.98, NFLX-.11, TSLA+6.39, BA+1.43 and IBM+.21.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/23/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 24th

 

 

Today’s “Best dumb excuse” for a miss in earnings was brought to us by AZO, AutoZone, and the winner is, “The IRS delay caused the downturn is sales.”  This led to a pre-market decline of $58 and a final price of $581.40 -$78.09 or almost 12%.  I don’t know about you, but when I get a broken whatever I have it fixed pretty quickly and it may go on a credit card, but I don’t wait for my tax refund to come in to deal with it.  The rest of the group followed suit with ORLY-8.28, and AAP -6.71.

 

Some other names in the news were A +2.58, ALXN-5 premarket and -10.78 by the close on a failed drug trial, NBIX -5.14 (same issue),TTWO +3.79, DSW -1.44, INTU +10.50 (earnings), and GLYC+4.10 (36%) and mentioned here last night as up from $5 to $14.64 in 5 days and back to $10.

 

Retail reared its ugly self again today with M-.36, JWN-.44, KSS-.28, WMT-.06, DSS-1.54, RL-.70, SHLD-.10, JCP-.02, and XRT-.76.  LULU was also down $ .71 due to its e-commerce site being down for the past 24 hours.

 

The big names were mixed to lower with GOOGL +6.62, AMZN+.83, AAPL -.27, FB -.17, NFLX +.79, TSLA -6.46, BA -.18, and IBM -.64.  GLD reversed from +.29 to -.73 and SLV from +20 to -.10.

 

The market range was narrow today and the internals were pretty much indecisive.  NYSE volume was 445:306 UP and A/D 17:11 while NASDAQ was 803:856 down while Advances beat out declines 1487:1341.  Not very decisive either.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 5/22/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 23RD

 

Today’s rally started off with the defense stocks right out of the gate.  LMT, RTN, BA, GD and NOC were all up strong on their deals with the Saudis.  Oil was higher but getting back toward the 2/3s upper end of the range again and the XLE was actually slightly lower while my list was mixed with CVX -.40, XOM +.32, APC +.05, OXY -.08, COP - .55, BP +.05, PSX +.29 and MPC +.20.

 

NUTR was +$14.15 on takeover news while HUN was $2 higher but finished - .56 and CLN.CH was +.72 on a merger of equals report.  RDUS finished +2.31 after being +6 early on reports of a successful Osteoporosis drug beating out an AMGN offering -3.80. LJPC finished -.31 after being -4 and BX +2.01 on the Trump announcement of a “permanent funding” of an infrastructure fund with the Saudi’s for $40 billion.  MOMO rallied from - .30 to +3 while GLYC finished -2.30 after a 4 day run from $5 to $14.64 to close $10.36.

 

The metals were higher but while GLD was +.50 (.42%) SLV +.30 was (1.88%) or 4X the yellow metal.  EWZ was down again -.97 down 15% from last week’s high and a meager 6% from Thursday’s low.

 

The big names have all rallied with TSLA the only one lower today.  GOOGL +8.86, AMZN+12.71, AAPL +.97, FB +.18. NFLX+ .15, TSLA -.89, BA +3.12, IBM +.68, ACIA +4.67, PBYI +14.80 (40%) and MCK +2.41.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 5/18/2017

THERE IS NO NOTE TONIGHT

After the close 5/17/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 18TH

 

Today’s early bloodbath was led by the bond yields and the financials.  By mid-morning GS was -9, JPM -2.40 and BAC -1.06 (4.4%).  Oil and gold were higher although the oil stocks seemed to lag a bit.  Profit takers were all over the big names since that’s where the biggest profits were to be had.  By the close unless you owned GLD +2.14,SLV  .06, HL + .06, AGQ +.28 or NUGT +1.76 you didn’t close in the green.  The financials continued lower with GS -11.92, JPM -3.33 and BAC -1.43 or 5.92%.  Even though the oil was lower overnight and higher by the NY open and then higher by $ .66 at the close, the stocks still fell along with the market.  CVX -1.27, XOM -.45, APC-.01, OXY -.26, COP -.68, BP -.07, PSX -.94, MPC -.43 and the XLE -.62.

 

All the big names were lower with GOOGL-22.44, AMZN -20.97, AAPL -5.06, FB -4.63, BA -3.85, TSLA -10.88, NFLX -5.91 and IBM -2.75.  Some other names from last night’s list of the Chinese Internets stocks didn’t fare quite as well today with SINA -1.81 (+15 5/16), BIDU -4.59 (+4.50), BABA -3.30 (+2.62) WB -3.80 (+15.70) so some held up pretty well.

 

CSCO had earnings and fell $2.30, and some more popular names caught up in the selling were MU -2, MOMO -3.54, NVDA -9.70, AMD -1.51, INTC -.73, and LVS -1.08.

Retail was its dismal self with the exception of TGT which closed up .51 but on the low and 1.93 from its high and LB which also had earnings after the close and was +$3.

 

Last but not least was the market internals, with the NASDAQ, which was down 2.57% the A/D were 6:1 negative while volume was a whopping 8.26:1 down.  Over on the NYSE it was a meager 4:1 and 4.5:1 respectfully.  As a recap of the day’s action indexes were DJIA -1.78%, TRANS -3.08, NASDAQ -2.57, S&P500 -1.82 and RUSSELL -2.78.

We bought some SPY 239 calls @ -200 that were stopped out @ 50% down but also wrote the 238.50s @ $.71 and are holding them into tomorrow’s open.  They closed @ $ .16.  The S&P-500 could rally 35 points and these would still be worthless at expiration on Friday.

 

 Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 5/16/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 17TH

  

Today was another retail mess with the only standout being HD, and it was + .90 after being up over $2.50 earlier.  The rest were URBN -.50, PLCE -6.20, DKS – 6.53, ROST - .85, TJX – 3.09, LULU -1.45, M -.39, JWN- .77, KSS +.01, WMT -1.24, DDS +1.83, RL – 2.59, SHLD + .01 after yesterday’s -1.83, and the XRT -.33.

 

Chinese internet stocks got a lift with BABA +2.62, BIDU +4.50 and SINA +15.  U.S. gainers included AMD+ 1.33, WB +15.70, ETSY +2.41 (21%), ISRG + 8.80, MTSI + 5.69, and WFBI +5.69.  Losers were SFLY -2.04, CBI -2.24 910%0, and DVA -3.94 as well as most of the oils; CVX -.41, APC-.13, OXY- .78, COP -43, PSX -.88, MPC -.50 and the XLE -.53 all thought the oil was little changed.

 

The metals were slightly higher as were SLV +.18 and GLD +.59 with HL +.11.  The big names were mixed but mostly higher with GOOGL +5.39, AMZN +8.10, AAPL -.23, FB -.50, BA + .31, TSLA +1.50, NFLX _.81, IBM +2.17 and DIS – 1.20 on news that it is part of the worldwide hack and that one of its big summer releases is being held for ransom.

Two big restaurant plays with positive earnings were up pretty big after the close were JACK +11.00 and RRGB +9.50.

 

We sold the second half of our SPY calls and went home without and directional position but as you know…

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/15/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 16TH

 

The weekend news of the biggest hack in history lit a fire under the cyber-security stocks pre-market that carried right through the day with the public learning a new symbol HACK + .94 (for the cybersecurity ETF).  The individual companies looked great with QLYS +2.15, CYBR +2.20,FEYE +1.11, SYMC +1, PANW +3.13 and PFPT +5.99.

 

Other big movers included PTHN +8.61 on takeover by TMO + .74, ALNY +9.23, TRVG +2.13, AKBA +1.07, SNAP +1.56 bouncing from its earnings miss from 17.59 on Thursday, VRX +.60, EGRX -12.95, IONS -3.18, and FRTA -4.79.

 

Oil was higher again with another OPEC agreement and the stocks reflected it with CVX +.81, XOM +.25, APC +.36, OXY +.48, COP + .48, BP + .31, PSX + .21, MPC +.68 and the XLE +.53.  Financials were higher but not big with GS + 1.70, JPM + .28 and BAC+ .02, and the big names were actually mostly lower.  GOOGL +4.08, AMZN -3.38, AAPL -.40, FB -.21, BA -.86, TSLA -9.21, NFLX -.79 and IBM +1.04.

 

We went back into the SPY calls this morning and gave up half of the position on the 100% Up Rule and kept the last half.  We didn’t write against it as we did with the puts since the trend is higher and I don’t generally cut off potential going with the trend.  We also added some JBLU calls and some SLV (Silver ETF) shares.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 5/11/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 12TH

 

Today’s disaster du jour was SNAP -4.89 or 22%, followed closely by the devastation in the retail sector lead by M-4.95 or 17% on earning and finally JWN which reported after the close and fell by $5, or just about 10%.  The rest of the group was right behind the leaders with KSS -2.98, WMT -.57, DDS -10.13 (17%), RL -3.84, SHLD -1.08, JCP -.42, and XRT -1.28.  It may be a little late but the next group could be the mall R.E.I.T.s like SPG -3.94 (Simon) or SKT -.58 (Tanger).

 

Also mentioned here the last several nights was STRP and its “unnamed” suitor VZ which finally came out from behind the curtain and made its “take-under” bid of $3.1Bil. and that was only $43 UNDER last night’s close so it opened -45.68.

 

Market internals were soft with the NYSE 2:1 negative volume and A/D 5:9 down while the NASDAQ volume was much closer at only 4:5 down and A/D about the same 5:9.  We were again long SPY 5/12 238.50 puts @ $ .21 and we sold half @ $ .48 and wrote the 237s @ $ .24on a ratio of 2:1.  We sold the second half @ $ .63 and covered the 237s @ $ .04 just before the close.  The gain on the day was 359% on the day.

 

Oil continued higher today and the stocks were mixed with CVX -.34, XOM _.69, APC -.54, OXY-.26, COP +.07, BP +.28, PSX -.23 and XLE -.13.  The big names were also mixed with GOOGL +1.05, AMZN -1.33, AAPL +1.18, FB - .39, BA + .65, TSLA -2.26, NFLX -1.77, and IBM -.63.  And lastly VRX continued higher again closing $13.70 +1.02 and up $3.63 or about 36% on the week.

 

 Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 5/10/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 11TH

 

Today was another interesting day on the earning and deal front.  We had some follow through on some of yesterday’s names with EA +13, PCLN -93, W +2.52, and NVDA +18.  The big name this afternoon was SNAP which missed on all metrics except user growth (+36%) and is trading $17.21-6.09.  TM missed and gave 20% lower guidance and is -2.56, ELF -1.66, TIME -2.15 (14%), SYMC -1.89, LGDN -5.50, IONS -3.57, ACAD -2,83, and AMGN -3.  Upside follow-thru included STMP +6, NUAN +1.40, PRAA +2.45, COHR +33.94, and CPN +1.39 (14% on takeover spec), AMD +76, MZOR (robotics) +3.50 and ANF +1.55.

 

Another group that winked back to life today was the 3D printers.  This group ran well ahead of itself for a year or so and now the technology is finally catching up to the hype.

XONE +.80, DDD +1.48, SYSS+1.29 and VJET +.44 (12%).  These were the most popular names and the usage has become pervasive with companies like BA and GE and ARCN all major participants.

 

We traded out of the second half of the SPY puts about even but the puts written expired worthless (as projected yesterday) for a 100% gain on that trade also.  The net return for that “paired trade was 206% in 24 hours.

 

Oils test of the lows Thursday night and rebound off the lower end of the trading range continued today with the drawdown numbers more to the liking of the markets.  As I mentioned earlier this week, these companies are also assets in and on the ground but a rally certainly does move them higher.  CVX +1.60, XOM +.37, APC +.75, OXY +1.45, COP +1.34, PSX +.15, MPC +.88 and the XLE + .78.

 

The big names were again mixed and some taking a well-earned rest with GOOGL-1.87, AMZN -3.87, AAPL -.72, FB + .77, BA -2.40 (on news of a problem with new engines for their 737 MAX),TSLA +3.96, NFLX +2.99, and IBM -.72.

 

 Tomorrow is another day.

 

 CAM

   

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After the close 5/9/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 10TH

 

Today was another interesting day on the earning and deal front.  We had some follow through on some of yesterday’s names with MAR +6 (3 from last night) and STRP +16.62 (53.25 yesterday).  We also had several of the “foreign versions” of our big names participate today with BIDU +6, BABA +3 and MELI (Mexican AMZN) +7.

 

On the earnings front we had P which was down after earnings and then up on news of KKR taking a position and then down and very volatile today finish at the low end of the range and down 5%.  Another one I would not usually mention is CLNT which was $3.27 yesterday announce a purchase of the CEOs shares and closed today @ $5.67+2.40 after trading $6.99.

 

Back to the earnings front, DISmissed on rev and is -1.57, FOSL a former $100 stock missed rev and guidance and is 15 -1.87, ACIA beat rev, earnings but not guidance and is -5.85.YELP lowered guidance and is -10.  PCLN missed and is -$60, while TRIP beat and is + 3.54, JCOM -1.87, TSN -1.63, RGR + 6.10, and ENDP +2.00, NVDA +12.03, AAOI +4.81 and EA +4.57.

 

The big names were mixed with GOOGL -1.98, AMZN +3.78, AAPL +1.01, FB -.56, BA +.90, TSLA +14.41, NFLX +1.06 and IBM -.92.  Retail was also mixed to higher with M + .63, JWN +.63, KSS +.53, WMT +.60, RL +1.95DDS -.02, SHLD - .03 and the XRT +.53.

 

Oil was lower as were the stocks.  CVX -1.49, XOM -.58, APC -.98, OXY -.72, COP -.86, BP -.08, PSX - .04 and the XLE -.51.

 

We also made a trade today in the SPY puts and bought 20 SPY 5/12 239 PUTS @ $ .33 and sold half on our 100% up rule and then also sold on a ratio of 2:1 the expiring TOMORROW  SPY 238.50 puts @ $ .19.  With the SPY closing @ $239.47 today these are worthless and should expire that way @ 0 for a further gain.  Also today our position in VRX (avg. cost $11.77) closed @ $12.06 +2.35 for a nice gain.

 

 Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 5/8/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 9TH

 

Today was an interesting day on the earning and deal front.  Bright and early we heard about Coach (COH +$2) and its take under of KATE +$1.45, STRP +$53.25 and its “unnamed” suitor, and a joint venture between Charter Com. (CHTR -$11) and CMCSA + .19 for a wireless deal.  Earnings misses were; HZNP-5.44, ADP -2.00, KITE -11, STMP -11,HTZ -2.53, CAR -2.15, CBI -3.03, NVRO -14.77 and P -.82. The beats were NWL +$5, MAR +3.17, QTNA +2.10, FN +1.70, and PETS +6.

 

The NASDAQ and S&P 500 both closed at all-time highs again with GOOGL +7.77, AMZN +13.55. AAPL +4.04, FB +.80, BA +1.01, TSLA -1.15, NFLX -.22, and IBM -.65.

Financials were mixed with GS – 1.93 but JPM +.06 and BAC +.22.  The oil rallied overnight but by the open this morning it was back to unchanged and spent most of the day in a narrow range with XOM + .87, APC -.28, CVX +.84, OXY +.33, COP +.36, BP +.13, PSX +.29 and MCP + .68.  It’s important to note that these oil companies are NOT JUST OIL but assets on and in the ground that have value beyond the day to day price of the commodity.

 

Retail was again lower with M -.30, JWN +.03, KSS -.82, WMT -.38, DDS -.70, RL -.02, SHLD -.21,JCP -.02 and the XRT- .10.

 

We got stopped out of our trade in AKAM on our 50% Down Rule but are holding on to SJM and HL positions. I’m also looking for a place to repurchase LABU (sold @ $53.55) and closed back near $45.  I did buy back CTL today.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/4/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 5TH

 

Today was an interesting day from the standpoint of the overall liquidation in the futures pits.  Besides the obvious losses in the oil and metals, even the grains, which have very healthy and bullish fundamentals and charts were hit by waves of selling that we don’t usually see without the margin clerks taking control of the liquidations.  For those of you that aren’t familiar with futures, margin is not the same as with stocks.  It is an actual down payment on the value of what you are contracting to buy or offering to sell and can be as little as 2 or 3% of the value.  It also means that your exposure may be 40 or 50 times what you put up and hence, margin calls are dealt with much more swiftly.

 

The oil broke down below the weekly lows @ $47.50 and continued lower by another $2.  Next support are the closes between $43-43.50.  The oils got smacked pretty hard with only APC +.05 (-$4 yesterday), CVX-1.84, XOM -1.06, OXY -2.05, COP -1.11, BP -.38, PSX -1.16, MPC-1.68 and the XLE -1.24.

 

The big names were mixed to lower with GOOGL +6.55, AMZN -3.73, AAPL -.46, FB -1.05, BA -.02, TSLA -15.14, NFLX +1.52, and IBM + .42.  Financials were higher with GS +.43, JPM +.17, and BAC + .11.

 

Market internals improved on NASDAQ but got worse on the NYSE.  NASDAQ was 3:4 A/D and 13:15 volume while on the NYSE it was almost 1:2 negative on both. The A.A.I.I. Sentiment numbers are unchanged, so no real influence from that quarter.

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/3/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 4th

 

 Today was a solidly lower day across the board even though the DJIA was higher by $8 at the close.  For the first time in a while new were actually much weaker than the averages portrayed.  NASDAQ – 22, S&P500 -3, Russell -8.44 and the Transports -20, but market internals were decidedly negative.  This mirrors yesterday’s action which was also negative, but not quite as bad.  Today the NASDAQ was 3:4 volume and 5:9 A/D with NYSE 4:5 and 2:3 respectfully.  Tomorrow should get off to a softer start since after the close we had earnings for FB -5.14 and TSLA -13.39.  SQ beat and is +.50.

 

The big names were mixed to lower with GOOGL +9.19, AMZN – 9.34, AAPL -.95, BA +.21, NFLX -1.44, IBM .35.  After the FOMC nonevent today the banks were higher with GS +.88, JPM +.33 and BAC +.20.  Oil was lower on bearish inventory numbers for gas and APC remained lower on its earning from yesterday finishing -4.33 while XOM was +.51.  The SCO (3X inverse ETF was + only .20.

 

Retail was mixed to higher with M -.31, JWN +.71, KSS +.84, WMT +.17, DSS+60, RL -1.00, SHLD_.28JCP +.05 and XRT -.29.

 

AKAM which was down 2.98 last night continued lower today finishing -9.62 or over 15%.

 

As I mentioned Sunday night and every night since, this market is very concerning.  Complacency seems to be the most prevalent emotion and that is definitely not a good thing.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/2/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 3RD

 

Today was another afternoon dominated by earnings reports.  MDLZ +.84, WTW+2.31, FEYE+1.30, FSLR+2.40, all beat and the misses; TWLO-10.50 (30%), MOS -1.92, AMD-3.31 (30%), GILD -1.67, ETSY -1.67, LITE -2.75, APC -2.17, LBY -1.92, AKAM -2.98,  and AAPL, who missed but is only lower by $1.78 with an increased buyback.

 

Autos were weak today with all reporting lower sales.  GM -1.00 and F-.50.  Retail was higher across the board; M +.66, JWN +1.29, KSS+1.15, WMT +.29, DDS +1.37, RL +1.38, SHLD +.51, JCP +.11, and the XRT + .30.

 

The market internals were even to negative today with the NYSE 1:1 on both A/D and volume but the NASDAQ was 3:4 volume and 4:5 A/D even though it closed at another new high.  If we run out of steam here it could get very sloppy very quickly.

 

Remember, they always look best at the top and worst at the bottom.  The big names were mixed to lower; GOOGL +7.94, AMZN -3.73, AAPL -1.78, FB -.21, BA +1.04, TSLA -4.39, NFLX +.80, IBM -.08.  Financials were lower with JPM -.70, GS -.14, BAC -.13 and oil lower with XOM +.05 but APC lower on earnings.  The oil is getting back to the lower end of the trading range ($45-$55) and unless there is some other circumstance, I think it continues to maintain the channel.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/1/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 2ND

 

Today was another day dominated by the big names of the NASDAQ.  While the Dow was lower by $27 and the S&P500 was up and anemic .17%, GOOGL was +8.18, AMZN +26, AAPL +3.15, FB+ 2.39, TSLA +9.88, and NFLX +3.60.

 

Financials were higher with GS +.88, JPM unch, and BAC +.25 while retail was lower.  M -.25, JWN-.94, KSS -1.01, WMT + .02, DDS -.68, RL -1.06, JCP -.02, and XRT -.03.

 

While the internals of this market were stable today with the A/D roughly 4:3 positive only the NASDAQ volume was decidedly positive.  As this market continues to climb higher the leadership gets more and more narrow.  This trend becomes more dangerous as we move into the summer months when volume gets smaller and the moves get exaggerated.  When markets are “priced to perfection” and volume dries up, any disappointments bring out moves that hit areas that have an absence of buyers and cause gaps to the downside.

 

I only mention this because the VIX is reflecting so much complacency that it seems no one feels that it is necessary to own protection for the downside.  We have had so much upside that it is almost inevitable that we are going higher.  The “This time it’s different” crowd is solidly in control and the race to be the first $1 Trillion Company is on in earnest.  I can’t think of a worse setup for a long boring dangerous summer...

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/26/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING April 27th

 

Today was a “resting” day, unless you had an earnings beat or miss.  US Steel (X) was a carryover from yesterday and after losing $5 preopen, it continued even lower this morning opening -8.46.  TWTR had an unexpected jump and was +1.16, STX -8.43, MLNX -6, AMGN -5.80, BWLD -5.30, ORLY -4.96, WTW +2.92, DECK +3 on takeover spec, WYNN +5 on better Macao numbers while LVS was lower on a miss.  Edwards (EW) +12, IRobot (IR) +10, SAM missed and after trading $146 midday is $136 -8.

 

The big names were mixed as they consolidated after the last couple of days, GOOGL -.34, AMZN +1.38, AAPL -.74, FB -02, BA -1.80, TSLA -3.84, NFLX -2.04, and IBM -.24.  Financials were lower with GS - .77, BAC -.10, and JPM eked out a gain of .04.

 

Gold came back a bit with the weakened US$ while the oil had a down to up to down day finishing $49.62 + .06.

 

Market internals remained positive on both the NYSE and NASDAQ with volume slightly ahead but A/D solidly positive on both exchanges.  For a market that was up 2% the first 2 days of the week today was just what the doctor ordered.

 

Tomorrow’s another day…

 

 

CAM

 

   

 

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After the close 4/25/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 26TH

 

 

Today was another earnings driven open.  CAT beat and was +$6, MCD beat and was +3.50, MMM was + 1.75, ESRX beat last night but is losing its biggest customer ANTM and lost $8 or 12%, LMT missed and was -6, and KO had negative free cash flow while building inventories and traded lower.  The net result was an open in the DJIA +200.  The strength persisted all day and we closed with the DJIA leading the way up 232 or 1.12%, NASDAQ made another new all-time high closing over 6,025.

 

The big names were all higher with AMZN -.37 the only loser.  GOOGL +10.12, AAPL + .84, FB +1.04, BA +1.34, TSLA +5.72, and NFLX +8.30.

 

After the close US Steel (X) reported a miss and fell to $25.84 -5.36 or 17%.  CMG beat expectations on top and bottom lines and same store sales and traded over $504 to close at $485.60 +16.81.  PNRA missed bottom line but beat revenues and closed basically unchanged.

 

Gold was lower again as was silver and we sold our SCO (3X inverse oil ETF) for a gain of $4.05 or 12% when oil rallied to close near the highs.

 

The financials were higher again with GS +3.48, JPM + .52 and BAC + .32.  Retail was mixed after a 3 day rally with M + .09, JWN -.08, KSS -.21, WMT + .22, DDS - .17 and the XRT -.04.

 

Market internals continued positive but not excessive with NYSE and NASDAQ A/D 2:1 up and volume 2.5:1.

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/24/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 25TH

 

 

Today was an excellent example of what happens when an overnight geopolitical event takes place and the local markets react.  Some days we’re the dog and others we’re the tail.  Today we were the latter.  We started up in the futures markets last night (as noted in my special note.  We came out of the gate with A/D and volume running 5:1 and then settled around 3:1 volume and 2.5:1 A/D on both the NYSE and NASDAQ.

 

Financials were especially strong with GS + 6.26, JPM +3.01, BAC +.90 and the XLF closed  @ $23.68. Oil was lower by mid- morning and finished $49.30 and XOM + .45, APC + .08 and the XLE + .40.  The metals we lower but by early afternoon while the GDX -.41, GLD -.83, and we missed buying the GLD 5/121 calls by .08 and they closed $ .50 higher.

 

Last but not least, GOOGL + 20.05, AMZN +9.00, AAPL +1.51, FB + 1.75, BA +1.92, TSLA +2.13, NFLX + .89 and IBM + .32.

 

We may fade this markets rally tomorrow if we continue higher.  I would probably use the short dated SPY puts…

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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Late Sunday evening 4/23

SPECIAL NOTE

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 24th

 

 

Evening Everyone:

 

By now everyone should have heard how the French primary election went, and the futures love it.  Bonds are down (rates higher) and so the US$ is soft.  The oil is doing nothing, and as noted earlier, has pretty much de-coupled from the US$ and is trading on its supply/demand situation.

 

The strength has, however, caused the gold to move lower by as much as $22.50 and is now (9:00PM EDT) back to down $14.  The silver however has been down to $17.55- .30 but is now unchanged on the evening session.

 

The Dow is +172, S&P 500+22.00 and NASDAQ +47.50, so while it's a long night and pre-market morning, the first indications are positive...

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/20/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 21ST

 

 

Today was strong right from the start and we were totally prepared for it holding 2 separate positions in the SPY 4/235 calls.  We had an average cost of $ .29 and sold the first half @ $.57 and the second half @ $ .80 while they closed around $ .68.

 

There were more earnings today and the shining stars were Visa (V) +3.98, E-trade (EFTC) +1.88 and last night’s AXP +4.67. BB&T beat and was +1.10 but Proofpoint beat not by enough I guess and PFPT was trading -1.34 last time I looked.  Mattel (MAT) missed and is -1.40.  The other financials were higher with GS +3.97, JPM+1.09 and BAC +.34.

 

With the exception of RL- .28 and SHLD -.30 the retailers were all higher again.  M +.94, JWN +1.17, WMT +.68, DDS +1.86, JCP +.15 and the XRT +.79.  The big names were higher with the exception of TSLA -3.01 on news that it was issuing a recall on 53,000 of their Model S and X (half of last year’s production). GOOGL +3.49, AMZN +2.31, AAPL +1.77, FB +1.40,  BA +1.20, NFLX +1.34 and IBM +.61.

 

Market internals were 3:1 volume and 2.5:1 A/D on both the NYSE and NASDAQ, with all of the indexes higher on the day.  The DJ Transports led the way + 1.67% followed closely by the Russell +1.24% and the NASDAQ +.92%, DJIA +.85% and finally the S&P 500 a still respectable .85%.

 

We are maintaining our positions in the AGQ and SCO and issuing new sell stops in the Sunday night letter or via the free texting service.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/19/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 20TH

 

 

Today was another earnings driven market with the IBM selloff carrying over to open the DJIA lower and keeping it down all morning.  The other indexes did not follow and the NASDAQ, S&P500, Russell and the Transports held up well until later in the day when the price of oil started to fall.  By the close the oil was down 3.5% and the DJIA was lower by 118 and the S&P -4.02 with only the NASDAQ+13.56, the Russell+5.24 and the Transports +43 but closer to the low than the high. We own the SCO (3X Oil Inverse ETF) @ $35.05 which closed $36.37.

 

Market internals were split with the NYSE just negative on both the A/D and volume but the NASDAQ 1.5:1 volume and A/D.  The Gold was also lower with the minor strength in the US$, and our position in the AGQ is still a slight profit.  I am looking at support about $10-12 lower to repurchase the GDX (gold miners) on that dip.

 

The earnings continued today with some winners: AXP+1.46, ISRG +51.96, SCSS +4.26, QCOM +1.33, and CSX +1.64.  Some losers were EBAY-1.06, and URI -7.61.

Retail was higher after the Philadelphia Fed Report on Consumer confidence with M +.38, JWN +.45, KSS +.35, WMT +.16, DDS+1.45, RL+.47, SHLD-.03, JCP-.14, and the XRT +.25.

 

The big names were mixed with GOOGL +2.52, AMZN-4.86, AAPL -.46, FB+1.29, BA+.55, TSLA +5.25, and IBM on its follow-thru from last night’s earnings, -$8.08.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/18/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 19TH

 

 

Today was an excellent example of what happens when even the biggest of names have earnings misses.  Goldman Sachs (GS) had earnings in line with expectations last night but revenues and guidance were a little lighter than the Street wanted and we opened @$219.89 – 6.43 and just got worse all day finishing @$215.59-10.67 or 4.67%.  WW Grainger (GWW) did the same and finished @$197.57-25.40 or 11.39%, while IBM had numbers after today’s close and is currently trading @ $161.92 -9.18.  JNJ was also not immune to the disappointment as it missed and closed $121.82-3.90 or 3.1%.  As I’ve said before, repeatedly, this market has absolutely no tolerance for anything but perfection.

 

The market internals were not as bad as the decline appeared since GS, JNJ, and IBM are all DJIA stocks, and the NASDAQ was not as bad as the Dow.  While A/D was 15:14 down and volume was 3:5 on the NYSE, NASDAQ volume was even while the A/D was only 4:5 down.  The Russell was actually up, although only .05%.

 

The big names were lower with GOOGL -1.14, AAPL -.55, FB -.43, BA -1.17, TSLA -1.39, NFLX -3.96 and AMZN the only winner +.19.

 

As I mentioned in Sunday’s Weekly Strategies the 10 yr. US Treasury broke to a new low yield closing since the start of the year of 2.25% and today traded lower to 2.16%.  This flattens the yield curve and casts doubt on the magnitude of any actual recovery.  For that reason, even if GS had not reported, the other financials were lower with JPM - .80 and BAC -.14.  I have always maintained that without the financials in gear it is almost impossible to have a healthy bull market.  I’m not saying it’s over, but when things are priced for “perfection” it’s easy to see the makings of a correction coming.

 

Retail was again mixed with M -.11, JWN -.02, KSS -.08, WMT +.40, DDS -.25, RL -.47, SHLD +.57, JCP +.02 and the XRT + .16.

 

 Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 4/17/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 18TH

 

 

Today was strong right from the start to the finish.  According to Yale Hirsch (The Stock Trader’s Almanac) this is the best week of the year.  Hard to argue with today’s action since the internals were strong on both the NASDAQ and NYSE.  The A/D was almost 3:1 on both with the volume 4:1 on NYSE and 3:1 NASDAQ.

 

All of the indexes were up close to 1% with the Transports leading with a gain of 1.3% followed by the Russell up 1.2.  The only sector that did not perform today was energy with the XLE basically flat.

 

Financials led the way with the XLF up 1.75% with GS +4.68, JPM +1.50, and BAC +.63.  The big names were higher across the board with GOOGL +15.72, AMZN +18.03, AAPL +.75 (reports later this week) fb + 2.39, BA +3.28, NFLX +6.35 (after beating earnings) and IBM +1.59.  The only one of this group that was lower was BA -3.88.

 

Retail was mixed with M -.33, JWN - .47, KSS -.55, WMT +.31, DDS -.13, RL +.85, SHLD +.35, and JCP -.22.

 

The metals were a little lower as the bonds sold off a bit and the US$ rallied slightly.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/11/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 12TH

 

 

Today was a video replay of yesterday, just in reverse.  We opened lower and continued to sell off until we reached -140 around 11:00 AM.  We can into the day with S&P puts that expire tomorrow with a 235 strike and almost hit the 100% up trigger @ $1.80 (trigger was 1.82) and I texted a sell of half anyway and we closed out the first half @ $1.66.  A little later we sold the balance at $ .92 or a penny above our buy price and switched to the S&P 4/13 (Thursday expo) 235 calls @ $ .57, which when we rallied back to close almost unchanged closed $.72.  Obviously we need to close these out tomorrow or Thursday, but with the close 12 cents off the high and 1.75 off the low.  I would expect some follow-thru tomorrow barring any major problems. The last time we had a selloff followed by a reversal day like today was 3/27and we closed 233.62 and traded as much as $2.20 higher the next day.  I’d gladly settle for half.

 

The internals we divergent again today with the NYSE again stronger than NASDAQ.  NYSE A/D was 9:5 up while NASDAQ was only 5:4.  NYSE volume was only 4:3 up but

NASDAQ was 7:10 DOWN.

 

The big names were mostly lower, but not by much.  GOOGL -.80, AMZN -3.76, AAPL -1.81, FB -1.07, BA +.74, TSLA -4.39, NFLX +.60, IBM -.62,  financials were all lower with GS-.90, JPM -.15, and BAC -.13 due to a new closing low for the month in the US 10yr treasuries and therefore the US$.

 

Also dramatically affected by the weakening US$ and its recent selloff were both the Gold and Silver.  We are long GDX (miners), AGQ ( 3X Silver ETF) and the AGQ calls. AGQ closed $41.99+2.05 and GDX$24.36+ .71.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/10/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 11TH

 

 

Today was a classic holiday shortened week day with low volume and an inability to maintain a gain that the market mounted not once but twice.  We opened higher and rallied to +90 and sat, fell back to slightly lower by midday and again rallied to +75 only to fall back to close basically unchanged.  The A/D on NYSE was almost 2:1 positive while the NASDAQ was 14:13 DOWN.  That’s quite a divergence for a market that is tech-heavy and has led the way all year.

 

The big names were mixed with GOOGL -.40, AMZN+13.11, AAPL-.19, FB+.23, BA-1.40, TSLA (again upgraded)+9.68, nflx+1.19, ibm-.94; financials also mixed with GS+1.12, but JPM-.20 & BAC-.14. The S&P500 again tried to break above the halfway mark from last Wednesday’s reversal and finished up a dismal 1.62 or .07%.

 

Oil continued strong with APC+.46 and XOM +.45.  Retail finally had a good day.  Maybe a “dead cat bounce, maybe just so bad it looked good.  M+.42, JWN +.87, KSS +.90, WMT +.24, DDS+1.99, RL+1.25, SHLD +.53, JCP+.24 and the XRT + .60.

 

All in all a great showing for a badly beaten down group.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/6/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 7TH

 

 

Today was a classic test of the cascading decline we had yesterday across the board.  We had an okay open about unchanged and after trying the lows we rebounded and took all the economic reporting in stride.  All went well until we failed to make it any further than min-range of yesterday and couldn’t quite get any traction.  I sat all day long thinking about pulling the plug on the SPY puts and the AQG calls, but just decided to hold on.  Sure enough we weakened again between 2:30 and the close. Most will say “between the reversal in AMZN, and the failed rally we are going lower,” but I think the downside will be limited.

 

Big names were mixed; GOOGL -3.91, AMZN -9.53, AAPL -.32, FB -.70, BA -56, TSLA +3.87, NFLX, .,04, and IBM -.43. Financials were all higher but not by much; GS +.96, JPM +.13 and BAC +.11.  Oil was higher and tonight the futures are slightly higher.

 

There is plenty going on in the world and most of it no good, so the best thing to do is back off a little, if you want to buy, do so sparingly and keep something on the side and be sure to have some protection.  I like the SPY puts and am maintaining positions in GLD and AGQ (3X  silver ETF).

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/5/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 6TH

As I’ve discussed here for the last several days, the market has finally shown that the internals do in fact catch up to prices.  Today the DJIA was up as much as almost 200 after the better than expected ADP numbers.  Later the FED minutes came out and we started to weaken slightly but came on again.  When the oil turned down, it took the market lower and we worked lower with AMZN trading from the new all-time high at $923.72 turned soft, we also generated more selling across the board. The internals went from 3:1 up at 10:00AM to even by about 2:30 to 2:1 down volume and 5:2 down A/D on NASDAQ.  On the NYSE it went from 5:1 up volume to 2.5:1 down by the close and 2:1 down A/D.

 

We came into the day long XOM and OIH calls which were sold mid-morning near the highs and we had an order to buy calls on the SCO (3X Inverse Oil ETF) as well as the actual ETF filled at $35.05 and closed at $36.34.

 

The big names were lower across the board with GOOGL-4.57, AMZN+.62 but 16 off the highs, FB-.33, BA-.37, TSLA-8.20, NFLX-2.15, IBM-1.77 and GS-2.26, JPM-1.32, BAC -.38 and MSFT -.35.  Retail put in another poor performance with M -.07, JWN-.48, TJX-.78, TGT-.68 and the XRT -.51.

We also bought SPY 4/12 235 PUTS at $ .91 before the close and they finished at  $1.49.

 

While this may not be “the” top, it’s hard to argue that a couple of percent pullback could certainly wring out some of the recent excesses.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/4/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 5TH

 

Today was a boring affair without much action unless you happen to be long AMZN or TSLA or PNRA or are short SDRL or CRVS, or have a position in any of the XRT stocks.

Fresh off a new upgrade with a price of $1,100, AMZN crossed $900 for the first time.  Also making a new all-time high on “possible” Chinese interest and a beat on Q1 deliveries TSLA crossed $300 mark.  PNRA was talked about yesterday as a takeover was up $20 to $282 Monday was down 8 at 274 when the announcement of a possible deal with JAB, is trading right now at $307+24.  Great if you own it, but it’s already up over 20% in the last 6 days and 45% since February and I would doubt that there’s much room for a lot higher bid.

 

On the downside, CRVS, another biotech with a disappointing trial result opened at $20.75 this morning and closed $10.36 after trading as low as $8.27.

 

Internals were about even on the volume on both but while the A/D was even on NYSE, NASDAQ A/D was 4:3 down.  From my point of view this rally gets narrower daily.  The retail sector continues to falter and now that auto sales, reported yesterday, were disappointing it makes you wonder where the savings from cheap gas and zero rates are going.  It looks like maybe more casual dining.  Certainly not TIF, M, RL or even JCP or SHLD.

 

Big names were mixed to higher with GOOGL-4.74, AMZN+15.58, AAPL+1.17, FB-.51, BA+2.20, TSLA+3.48, NFLX -1.33, and IBM+.24.  Financials were also mixed with GS +1.02, JPM +.41, but BAC -.11.

 

We also got filled on our order for the SCO 4/37 calls today on the rally in oil.  I’ll be selling my second half of XOM calls and OIH calls on any further rally into the resistance above the $52-53 area.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 4/3/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 4TH

 

Today was one of the worst looking rallies I have ever seen. Today should have been a monster day with big volume as investors put their money to work on the first day of the 2nd quarter.  Instead we had what many might call a decent recovery that got us back to “almost” unchanged, but the internals tell an entirely different story.  The leadership in the NASDAQ was nonexistent from the start and with an average day of volume finished 2:1 down on both volume and A/D.  On the NYSE it was also just an average volume day but that volume was stilted 3.3:1 with the A/D of 5:3 down.

 

It could, of course be worse, you could have been long Imagination Tech, a UK semiconductor who lost their deal with AAPL and closed $103 -165 or just 61.6% It trades here under the symbol IGNMF and closed $1.38 -2.18.

 

The big names were mixed; GOOGL +9.21AAPL -.03, AMZN +3.71, FB+.15, BA -.21,

TSLA +20.22 (on delivery numbers for Q1), NFLX-.71, and IBM +.44.  Financials were soft and came back but finished lower with GS -.97, JPM -.38 and BAC -.11.

 

Other big movers on news were STDY $7.70+1.90 after trading $9.70 on a patent settlement, NVCR $10.90 +$2.80 after trading $14.30 on a new Brain cancer drug.  As usual there is always a daily disaster (IGNMF) and several home runs in Bio.

 

We also finally got our position in AGQ 4/42 calls today @ $1.00.  I’ll discuss

It tomorrow.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

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After the close 3/30/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 31ST

 

 Today was another constructive day without any of the excesses that spell trouble.  The markets were higher across the board and the internals finished the day with positive readings in both the NASDAQ and NYSE of about 5:4 volume and 3:2 A/D.

 

Oil continued to firm and while March didn’t work well as a “seasonal” favorite, April is the number one month for the S&P Energy sector.  More to the point, the OIH (oil service ETF) and two of its main components, HAL and TSO are looking much better.  Our position in XOM 4/82 calls triggered my 100% Up Rule this morning and we sold half @ $1.52 and they closed at $1.77 +.72. (They were $1.90 bid $2.35 offered at the close).  XOM +1.63, APC -.26, CVX -32, and the big winner, COP +4.05 or 8.1%.

 

The big names were mixed and with its recent rise AMZN +2.12 made Jeff Bezos pull ahead of Warren Buffett on the Forbes Richest list.  The others were GOOGL -.28, AAPL -.30, BA +.45, TSLA +.65, IBM-.16, NFLX +1.69 and FB -.30.  Financials were led by GS+2.75, JPM +.83, and BAC +.61 or over 2.6%.  Our position in the GS 4/232.50 calls (bot @ $1.51) closed $2.10 with a high of $2.55.  100% Up rule trigger is $3.02.

 

Tomorrow is the last day of the first quarter of the year and there tends to be some “window-dressing, as the funds want to show they own the winners and not the losers, and this may cause some distortions, but historically it reverses itself in coming days.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 3/29/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 30TH

Today was a boring affair from start to finish.  Internals finished pretty much the same as yesterday at 1.8:1 volume and 2:1 A/D with the major indices mixed.  DJIA -42, NASDAQ +22, S&P 500 +2.55 and Russell +4.38.  The oil was up over $1.00 and closed near its highs on the news that gas inventories were a drawdown instead of the expected build.  Our position in XOM gained from the report and closed $82.08 + .28 and our calls (bought @ $.74) closed $1.05.  APC was up $1.75, CVX + $1.03, VLO +.85 and OXY +.38.  The XLE was up another $1.17 or 1.69%.  Our position in VRX also improved with the stock gaining $ .75 and finally closing $11.17+.49 or 5%.

 

The big names were higher with GOOGL +10.37, AAPL +.32, AMZN +18.77, BA + .27, TSLA -.05, IBM - .66, NFLX +1.33, and FB +.89.  The financials were slightly lower with JPM - .30, GS -1.23, and BAC -.12.

 

Retail made up some ground today with Restoration Hardware RH gaining $5.68 or 15.37% on an earnings beat and helping the XRT +.82 or almost 2%.

 

After the close LULU missed its lowered expectations and reported $1.00 vs. $1.01 but issued dramatically lowered guidance for the balance of the year and fell from $67 to $54 or roughly 20%.

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 3/28/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 29TH

 

Today was picture perfect for a follow through day after a major break followed by a close near the highs.  Our position in GS could not have acted better with an unchanged open followed 10 minute run from $225.50 to $227.80 and some consolidation for the next hour or so for its move to $229.50.  It spent the rest of the day between $228 and $229.75 and closed just under the highs +$4.12.  A near perfect setup for tomorrow.  Next real resistance around $233-234 range, above our strike.

 

The oils also rallied and the XOM calls bought @ $ .74 yesterday closed today at their highs of $1.06 +.22.  The oil tested the $47 level Friday and held and had an okay day yesterday.  If it can move over $49 we may be able to ride the XOM a little longer.

 

The internals today were positive all day but not excessive. NASDAQ started slightly positive and built all day to finish 1.8:1 A/D and 2:1 volume.  The NYSE started the same way but finished 3:1 on both counts.  A very solid showing.

 

The big names were higher with GOOGL +2.49, AMZN ++11.18, AAPL (which everyone loved to hate) was +2.82 to a new all-time high, BA +1, TSLA +8.53, IBM +.73, NFLX +1.31, and FB +1.41 after bringing out several SNAP type tools and SNAP was -1.80 or 7.55% lower.  The financials were led by the aforementioned GS +$4.12, JPM +1.58, and BAC +.54.

 

All in all a strong bounce after the first 1% move in over 100 days…

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 3/27/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 28TH

 

We couldn’t have started off any worse than we did today.  As noted in last night’s Weekly Strategies the futures were down across the board with the exception of the gold.  Since we already have a position in NUGT there was little that we had to do about that, but we also decided to place orders in both LABU and XOM to take advantage of the down open.  We bought the XOM 4/82 calls under our price on the gap down and saw them go from our purchase price of $ .74 to close @ $ .84.  We missed the LABU when it opened @ $44.44 and the calls were our bid @ $1.90 but didn’t trade there only to rally back to close $48.60 and the options $3.15.  We also used the free texting service to buy some GS calls which although the stock was down on the day closed $5 off the low and only 1.50 off the high, and excellent setup for tomorrow.

 

The internals were on NASDAQ were almost 3:1 at the open and closed 4:3 positive at the close and the NYSE was the same at the open but could only manage even money at the close.  These are not bad for a day that say a 185 drop at the open and a closing loss of only $46  on the Dow, S&P 500 – only $2.39 and the NASDAQ +11.63.

 

The big names came back and closed mixed but mostly higher; GOOGL +3.37, AAPL +.29, AMZN +1.21, BA +.28, TSLA +7.72 IBM - .08 NFLX +2.16,FB +.09 and the financials all slightly lower with GS -2.76 (after -7), BAC -.09 and the standout JPM +.11.

 

The IBB and hospital stocks were higher as were the XRT and although lower on the day, even the XLE rallied off its lows.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/23/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 24th

 

Today was another consolidation day with internals that again did not match the indexes net changes.  While all were lower except the Russell the up volume was slightly better than the down volume but the A/D was 2:1 positive on both the NYSE and NASDAQ.

 

After the minor rally, the oil again closed lower and tonight we are basically unchanged.  The Gold was pretty much the same and is slightly lower this evening.

 

The big names were mixed with GOOGL -10.15, AAPL - .63, AMZN -1.36, BA + .28, TSLA + .49, IBM + .12, NFLX -.81, the financials were GS +1.17, JPM - .08 and BAC recovered  by a meager + .18.

 

I was ready to buy the S&P (SPY) 4/234 puts around 2:00pm today around the $234.80 level but waited too long…there will be another chance.  There’s just too much political BS at this point.

 

Tomorrow’s another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 3/22/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 23rd

 

Today was not a big follow-thru or a reversal but it was constructive nonetheless.  The oil, after a clear break did move lower right to the round number $47 before a rally carried it all the way back to close a shade over $48.  It was still down on the day by $ .20 but closed 75% up on the range.  Does this mean the move down is over?  Not a chance, but a couple of days of stabilization would change that.

 

As for the markets, we had a divergence between the NYSE and NASDAQ internals today.  Whereas the NASDAQ volume was 1.5:1 up, but A/D was 3:4 down, the NYSE was 1:1 on both measures.

 

Gold was slightly higher again and working its way into the overhead resistance between $1,250-60.  We are still long NUGT calls and came within $ .02 of triggering the 100% Up Rule for liquidation of the first half of the position.

 

The big names were mixed but mostly higher; GOOGL -.034, AAPL +1.49, AMZN +4.86, BA+1.02, TSLA +4.21, IBM +.90, NFLX + .23, and FB +.23.

Financials were also mixed with GS -1.95, BAC +.03, and JPM +.14.  The spread between the 2yr. and 10 yr. treasuries narrowed again, for a flattening of the yield curve…never a good sign.  The US$ closed mid-range but also slightly lower on the day.

 

Tomorrow’s another day.

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 3/21/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 22nd

 

Today was ugly right from the start.  The market seemed to be tied to the oil again with a healthy dose of woes in the financial sector.  The other un-coupling was the oil and gold vs. the US$.  The 10year (traded 2.61 on Fed day last week) continued lower again overnight and this morning trading in the 2.44 range.  This is an extreme move over a 4 day period, and it goes hand in hand with a weaker US$.  Gold rallied hard after its successful test of $1,200 and its break above $1,220.  Resistance is now between $1,250-60.

 

The oil’s close below $48.35 sets us on the way to a test of $44.  As mentioned last week, support by any group or individual inevitably fails.  This clearly de-coupled from the lower US$ and the GLD.  There is also a glut of “winter blend” gas in storage and when the season changes shortly it will have to continue to be stored or exported to make way for “summer blend.”

 

Internals were also lousy. The numbers closed at their worst levels of the day on both the NYSE and NASDAQ.  NASDAQ was slightly worse at almost 8:1 volume and 5:1 A/D vs 5:1 volume and 4:1 on NYSE.

 

Retail made new lows with XRT -2%, transports, IYT -1.91%, vs DJIA -1.14%, S&P -1.24%, NASDAQ -1.82%, and the Russell -2.71.  From my prospective it seems like there was a lot of profit-taking in the areas that had good gains before they evaporated.  It will take another day or two before the “buy on dips” folks feel comfortable enough to step back in.  This is typical of profit-taking, not a top, but time will tell.

 

The big names were clearly not exempt; GOOGL -17.70, AAPL -1.91, AMZN -14.73, BA -3.39, TSLA -11.17, IBM -1.89, NFLX -3.44, and the financials were stung with GS -9.59, JPM -3.03 and BAC -1.55 (a whopping 6.34%.)

 

With the exception of GLD and the leveraged Inverse ETFs there was nowhere to hide.  As always we’ll take some solace in the fact:

 

Tomorrow’s another day…

 

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 3/20/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 21st

 

Today was another fairly boring day with little action to even consider of any importance.  The hearings went on endlessly with all of the fools asking questions that had no answers that made any difference to anyone, unless you might have had to “get you name into the record as a participant.”  Even those who asked these inane and hypothetical run-on questions get lost in the minutiae of their foolishness.

 

The internals on the NYSE didn’t give much direction either, both A/D and volume were 4:3 down and the NASDAQ volume was actually just positive while the A/D was 1.8:1.

 

The big names were mixed with GOOGL -4/37, AAPL +1.56, AMZN +4.39, BA - .71, TSLA + .45, IBM + .10, NFLX+ .62, FB+.13 and  the financials lower across the board.  GS was -1.88, JPM -.73 and BAC -.42.

 

Oil was also lower and all sectors from drilling to exploration to refining saw falling prices.  APC - .41, CHX - .08, XOM unch, VLO -.37 and PSX -66.

 

The Gold was slightly higher but trading down a few dollars in the futures tonight.

 

 

CAM

                       

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After the close 3/16/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 17th

 

Thursday was the typical follow-thru and sell-off for most of the averages.  NASDAQ and the Russell managed minor gains while the rest had minor losses.  The internals on the NYSE A/D was 4:3 and volume was even and on NASDAQ we saw more strength with the A/D 4:3 but volume also 5:3.

 

The A.A.I.I. Sentiment numbers today show the Bulls still 20% under average and the Bears with a dramatic decline still 20% over average.  These are a contrarian indicator and show that there are still more bears than bulls.  While not a black and white issue, they are an indicator of more upside to come.

 

Another day of mixed results for the big names; GOOGL +2.36, AAPL +.15, AMZN +.03, BA -.24, TSLA +6.27, IBM +1.60, NFLX -.57 and FB+ .20.  Some of the Defense sector were weak with LMT -.44, GD -1.01, HON -.61 and NOC -3.56.

 

Oil followed the DJIA (or the other way around) and was weak after the follow-thru with APC -.71, XON +.07, CVX -1.02, and OXY -1.24.  Financials were also mixed with GS +1.91, JPM -.13 and BAC +.09.

 

The best trades of the day for us were the sales of NUGT @ $9.76 (closed 9.04) and the GLD calls @ $2.32 (cost $ .90), and the purchase of some more VRX @ $11.08.  After the close ($11.20) Value Act came out with a filing for purchase of 5.2% stake and after trading 11.87 it is 11.68 tonight.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/15/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 16TH

  

Welcome back Goldilocks!!  We had the best of all worlds today when the Fed made their announcement of a .25% rate hike.  The street got the message that the FED actually realized that the market could take it in stride, the bonds market (which had already done the FEDs work for it) had already moved the 10year from a base around 2.10% up to 2.61 took off to the upside as adjusted its yield lower by 8 or 10 basis points, and finally, to match our thoughts (and positions) rallied the gold from under $1,200 to trading tonight around $1,222.  This should be considered a successful test of the $1,200 level as discussed the past several night’s notes.  We sold half of the GLD calls but none of the NUGT.

 

The oil, which turned on yesterday’s API report continued higher and has moved from $47 to trade tonight over $49.10.  The only group that didn’t get a lift from the news was the financials.  GS -.64, BAC -.10 but JPM + .37.

 

The big guys were moderately higher with GOOGL +2.48, AAPL +1.54, AMZN -.22,

BA - .02, TSLA +3.03, IBM +.83, NFLX +2.13, and FB +.59.

 

NYSE internals were dramatic, with the A/D 6.5:1 and volume 5:1 while the NASDAQ was subdued at 2.5:1 and just over 2:1.

 

All in all it was a pretty good day without much to complain about…..

 

Tomorrow is another day.

CAM

   

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After the close 3/14/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 15th

 

Just a short note now that we have power back; the market looks a bit higher this morning with the futures up across the board.  The turn came after the Oil inventory came out as a significant drawdown and the futures rallied from down $ .80 to actually up on the day.  Right now (8:25 EST) the futures are up over the past 2 days highs at $48.75.  The Gold is also a bit firmer and holding my support area at $1,200.

 

Today is FED day and as I’ve mentioned repeatedly the raising of the rate by .25% really should not have much effect on the market since the bonds have been doing the Fed’s job for the last several weeks.  The only fly in the ointment would be a bigger raise (unlikely) or the statement being overly hawkish.

 

Retail sales can out this morning and they came up 1/10% and up 2/10% ex autos, and the CPI up the same.  The market reaction was muted ahead of the FED meeting.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/13/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 14th

 

Today was a typical pre-Fed day.  I had more excitement when I had my new condo painted and hadn’t had my cable installed yet.  The internals were unimpressive and balanced with the NASDAQ faring slightly better than the NYSE.  Mobileye (MBLY) was the star with INTC buying the company for $63.25 or a scant 35% premium from Friday’s close.  AMBA got dragged along (we own it higher) and closed $56.67+3.87 on spec that it might be the next takeover.  AMBA gets a bad rap from being involved with GPRO, down from its high of $98 to make a new low today of $7.53.

 

Also another mixed day for the big names; GOOGL +3.17, AAPL +.11, AMZN +2.14BA failed to fall in a downgrade from MS and closed + .48,tsla +3.11, IBM -1.27, and FB +.81.

 

Financials were mixed with AXP -.29, JPM + .03, GS - .17 and BAC unch.  The Metals trade is still soft but the actual gold commodity looks like it is trying to dig in and the GDX was slightly high by .27.  Oil is trying to hold too, but the actual traded below $48 before climbing back to $48.40 – only $ .06.  Both are oversold and I got long the GLD and NUGT today around closing prices..

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/9/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 10th

 

 

Sometimes even a top and bottom beat doesn’t do it, and after the close ULTA did exactly that, and immediately traded from $274 to 259 -14.  Guidance was a shade light, but this is not a new company and you’d think 15% gains would satisfy nearly everyone.  Finisar (FNSR) was so lucky with the numbers and traded from 35 to 27.50 before leveling off around 29 off over 20%.  ZUMZ also missed and is off almost 20%.  As I have stated many times, beating lowered expectations or outright misses are not tolerated by this market.

 

Most of the indexes were higher with the standout s the Transports and the Russell.  The big names mixed again with GOOGL +4.56, AAPL -.15, AMZN +3.49, TSLA -1.57, BA -1.39, IBM -2.00, NFLX + .39, FB +.58, while the financials were higher with GS +.34, JPM +.58 and BAC +.23.

 

The oil was the worst influence on the day first breaking $50 and then $49.  The 2 day decline of over 7% caused breaks across the board with some small bounces in APC + .54, CVX +.55, and XOM +.72.

 

Last but not least, the continuing selloff in the bonds is causing declines across the metals complex.  While the gold has not broken 1200 yet, if the employment numbers look anything like yesterday’s ADP gain of  298,000 it certainly will.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/8/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 9TH

 

Today’s action in oil was typical of a market that was heavily non-commercial (speculators) driven with someone (Saudi’s) trying to support prices ahead of the huge prospective offering of the ARAMCO stock.  This should stand as an example that no one is bigger than the market and that corners, or bogus support never works.  While the rig counts and the storage numbers should have been at least partially outweighed by the continuing growth of demand, this artificially supported market showed cracks and ultimately failed, taking with it XOM -1.34, APC -1.76, CVX -2.06 and the XLE -1.86 or 2.6%.

 

The good news is that in the “old days” (a year ago), this would have collapsed the rest of the market, and while we were down 70 in the Dow, only .33% it was nothing extensive.

 

The big names were again mixed with GOOGL +3.84, AAPL -.48, AMZN +4.48, TSLA -1.70, BA - .17, NFLX - .93, and FB +.55.  Financials were little changed after the ADP numbers blew away all expectations with new hires +298,000 vs. 189 expected.  This drove the 10 year up almost 8 basis points and helped the yield curve bend higher.  GS was -.50, JPM unch, and BAC +.11.

 

The gold was lower again after breaking thru the 1220 support.  This leaves the round number $1200 as a line in the sand.  Our position in the GLD calls was down, but has not come to the 50% Down Rule trigger.  I still believe we have a bounce coming.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/7/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 8TH

 

 

Today was retail day and it started with the miss and poor guidance from Dick’s Sporting (DKS) down 4.43 or 8.42%.  The others followed with JWN -1.47, M + .12, DDS + .19, RL -.26 and the XRT - .26.  These have all been lower for the past several days and have not shown any ability to rally.

 

The overall market did no better with all indexes lower.  DJIA -30, NASDAQ -14, S&P 500 -6.92, RUSSELL -9.37 and the Transports the big loser -103 or 1.1%.  The airlines were the main culprit with LUV - .63, AAL -.51, DAL -1.21, JBLU -.05, UAL -.49 and even HA – 1.30 although there is some takeover speculation there.

 

The big names were mixed with GOOGL +3.88, AAPL + .18, AMZN -1.10, TSLA -3.56, BA +1.37, IBM + .03, NFLX  -.51, FB - .12 and the financials down across the board,  JPM --.57, GS -1.11 and BAC - .03.

 

The internals were again MUCH weaker on both the NYSE and NASDAQ.  NYSE was never better than 2:1 down and finished 3:1 down volume and 2.5:1 A/D.  NASDAQ was slightly better with A/D closing solidly 2:1 down but volume only 1.5:1 lower.

 

The backlash for the non-voting share offering of SNAP continued again today in earnest.  It closed down $2.60 at $21.17 after trading as low as $20.64.  As of the open today anyone who bought the stock after it started trading was facing a loss.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/6/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 7TH

 

 

Today’s rally from down 93 to down only 20 just before the last minute selloff to close -51 was not very encouraging.  To begin with, the internals were poor even though they did improve during the day, but closed weak.  The NYSE A/D started out 2:1 down and finished 2.5:1, while volume was as bad as 4:1 and finished solidly 3:1 down.  NASDAQ was a little better improving from 3:1 to 1.5:1 volume and 2.5:1 A/D.  Really nothing to be pleased about.  Transports were down 3 times the DJIA (.75% vs .25%) as was the Russell, while the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P500 were down only .35% on average.

 

After Barron’s was negative on SNAP, it opened higher and made a new high at $28.25 before trading sharply lower to close $23.74-3.35 or 12.37%.

 

The big names were slightly lower with GOOGL -1.81, AAPL - .40, AMZN -4.38, TSLA -.21, IBM +.55, BA -1.29, NFLX +2.81 (reported good sub growth), and FB + .19.  The financials were also soft with JPM -.95, GS -1.44, and BAC - .20.  The metals were a real disappointment and we got stopped out of our GLD position on 50% Down Rule.

 

While it is to be expected, every fool is coming out and talking about the “coming collapse” of this market and eventually they will be right, at least to some extent.  While I am cautious and have been for a while, we are not yet to a point of capitulation where retail just “has to be long or be left behind.”  We’ll have to wait until we see what the Fed does, and what the market does with that before I make that judgement.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/2/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 3rd

 

There are days when we just have to sit back and relax after several strong days up, and today was clearly one of those.  We didn’t give up much compared to how far we’ve come in the recent past and some profit taking was certainly in order.  We had become very overbought, even though the A.A.I.I. sentiment indicators as of Wednesday night were still almost 20% over bearish and just about average bullish.  I would have expected the bulls to have taken command after a 300 point up day.

 

Of the big names, we had pretty much exactly what you would expect, GOOGL -5.15, AAPL - .54, AMZN -4.17, TSLA + .20, BA _.90, IBM -1.42, NFLX -3.12 and FB - .70.  The financials followed with GS -1.71, JPM -1.42, and BAC - .28.  The metals were under pressure as the gold again fell and unfortunately did not recover to close near the highs this time.  Oil fell by $1.20 and although XOM was slightly higher + .33, APC was lower by $1.93, and CVX - .39.

 

The internals were soft with the NYSE A/D and volume almost 3:1 down and NASDAQ slightly better at 2:1 for both.

 

I’m keeping this short tonight since I’m in the final stages of moving, and I’m swamped with all the grief and aggravation that goes along with it.  Next time I just want to burn down the old place with all of my possessions in it, drive to the new place and buy all new stuff.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/1/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 2ND

 

Really, what can you say about up 300 and all of the indices participating, even the Transports and the Russell?  28 of the 30 DJIA stock higher on the day, 19 of 20 Transports, can’t really argue with those kind of numbers.

 

The President acted presidential last night and the result was that confidence was given another shot in the arm.  Even Matt Lauer on the Today Show this morning shamed Chuck Schumer by repeatedly pressing him (quite incredulously) “you mean there was NOTHING you heard that you could support?”   Just more politics as usual.

 

But even that couldn’t stand in the way of 2.5:1 A/D and volume on the NYSE and 3:1 on NASDAQ.  Unless you owned PANW (115.34 -36.56) or AMBA (56.29 -2.66) you weren’t red on my screen today.  Green was clearly the color of the day.

 

GOOGL +11.82, AAPL +2.80, AMZN +8.04, BA +3.68, IBM +2.08, FB +1.77.  While oil was slightly lower the stocks dug in and moved with the market; APC +1.37, CVX +1.38,  and XOM +1.72.  Even lowly AA, refugee from the DJIA +3.56 or 10.29%.

 

Financials rounded it out with GS +5.28, JPM +3.03, and BAC +.95.

 

The only disappointment for me was the metals, but even the gold held the 1238-1240 area that was prior resistance and while it was lower on the day it closed above those prior highs of 1246 and ended 13 off the lows and 1.40 from its high.  A very good performance in my book.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 2/28/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 1st

 

I think that yesterday and today we were involved in the “let’s see what Trump has to say in his speech” market, and we just drifted. Fairly typical and not disturbing to me.

 

This afternoon we had another couple of earnings reports that drove those stocks hard in opposite directions.  WTW had good numbers (and a 65% short interest) that took the stock from a close @ $14.39 up to $17.50, down to 13.39 and finally to the late close at $15.90.  Two that were not so lucky were AMBA and PANW.  Both missed and AMBA traded from $59 to 53.75 and back to 56 -3.78 while PANW was not so fortunate with a close of $151.90 a trade after hours to 130, back to 151 and ultimately to $121.60 -$30.30 or 20%.

 

The internals of today’s market were terrible with the NYSE numbers were solidly 2:1 down, while NASDAQ was worse at over 3:1 down.  While the DJIA, S&P, and even the Transports were only slightly lower, the Russell was down $21.23 or over 1.51%.

 

Gold was soft and the bonds are lower tonight while the oil is slightly higher.  The big names were mostly lower with GOOGL -4.74, AMZN -4.64, AAPL + .12, TSLA +4.15 (after a $45 slide), IBM +.25and FB - .99.  Financials were also mixed.

 

 Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 2/27/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING February 28th

 

Today was a bit stronger than the indices looked.  The DJIA and S&P500 were barely changed while the internals were stronger than in recent days.  The NYSE volume was solidly 2:1 and the A/D 1.7:1.  NASDAQ was 2:1 on both.  The Russell was the outstanding performer up $13.44 or just under 1%.

 

Most of the big names had minor changes; GOOGL + .32, AAPL + .06, AMZN +2.95, BA +2.23, IBM -1.99, NFLX + .09, FB + .93, GS + 1.98, JPM + .03, BAC + .36, while the biggest loser was TSLA -11.20 on a Goldman downgrade. Metals were just slightly lower but my work shows support in the $1,246-48 range (where prior resistance was) and if we consolidate above that, I’d be looking for $1,280-1,300.  Silver, copper and platinum also were just slightly lower.

 

The biggest sector move looks like the Bio/Pharma group.  LABU, the leveraged Biotech ETF has made a roughly 50% move in the last 4 weeks.  This ETF really whips around And was as low as $30 in January, $34 in early February and today closed @ $50.87 Up almost $6.

 

The oil is pressing the top of its recent range and needs a close over $55 to set it higher, Although the oil stocks are beginning to dig in and hold on to recent gains.  This is particularly encouraging.  If we can hold here and move higher we would set a new higher trading range.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 2/23/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING February 24th

 

As I mentioned last night, things change with the conference calls and TSLA was the clearest example.  While trading up over $280 after the close it gapped down and opened @ 264.08 and continued as low as 255.45 before closing down $17 or 6.48%. The rest of the big NASDAQ names had no strong direction as the index closed -$25.  GOOGL -.36, AAPL -.63, AMZN-3.42, NFLX -1.1, and FB-.88.  IBM +.50, BA+1.49 GS-.03, BAC -.22, and JPM + .07.

 

Retail was soft again with RL +.54, M+.12, KSS -.53, WMT -.40, DDS +.38, JWN reported after the close and is up $1.25, and the XRT -.92.

 

The Gold broke out over the $1,243-46 area and continued up to $1,250 +16.80 and Silver gained $ .225.  We bought some HL 4/6 calls @ $ .51 and we’re still long the GLD 119 calls @ $1.07 which closed $1.46.  We’re also long the HL from the $3.95 level as a long term holding.

 

With the VIX unable to rally much and protection being so cheap we bought some short dated SPY puts today.  I will be using our 50% Down Rule from here but our gains and long positions will be protected from any overnight political or geopolitical news.

 

Market internals continued mixed with the NYSE A/D 15:14 but volume 4:5, while the NASDAQ was decidedly negative at 1.7:1 and 1.5:1 negative.  We will either have a continuation of the rotational type of pullback, or an outright sell-off.  Either way this market does not seem to want to make any major moves to the downside yet.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 2/22/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING February 23rd

 

Well, today was an earnings day after the close.  Jack in the Box (JACK) was a miss and was trading $93.36 -$14, SQ (beat) 15.73+1.10, FIT (miss) 5.92 -.12, TSLA $278.25+ 4.70, CAKE  59.70 -.97, and HP (beat) + .20, and LB  $52.75 -5.40.  These are late numbers but there will be conference calls that may give better (or worse) guidance between now and the open tomorrow.

 

Other big names were mixed with the Dow the only index plus on the day.  GOOGL+2.09, AAPL +.41, AMZN -1.25, BA -.20, NFLX +1.26, IBM + .89, and FB (new hi) 136.15 +2.43.  The financials were unchanged to pennies lower, with the energy stocks putting in a miserable performance.  APC -1.35, XON -.82, and the XLE -1.00.  Oil itself was weak and couldn’t hold $54 and closed down $ .60.  The commitment of traders from the CFTC showed open interest expanding for the non-commercials (spec. accts) and that in and of itself generally spells trouble.

 

Gold, on the other hand was pressured all morning but managed to come back and close higher at $1,239.  The resistance between 1243-1247 looms large but a break above still sets it higher (possibly much higher) prices.  The CPI show inflation now moving higher into the Fed’s preferred range, but not so much that it demands action.

 

The path of least resistance still favors the downside for anyone who misses expectations or gives disappointing guidance.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

CAM

   

 

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After the close 2/21/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING February 22nd

 

We were up right from the start today and it seems this market has forgotten the meaning of the term “overbought.”  Relative strength on the S&P500 is in an area that has been a stopper to advances and at some point in time it will work again, but nobody wants to stand in the way and bet against the rise.  Volatility is running along the bottom of all measures and “protection” is as cheap as it gets, and no one wants it.  We just continue to grind higher.  I know I’ve said it before, but “they don’t ring a bell at the top,” and right now we are going to continue to keep positions small and take on some protection.  The position I bought in SJM @ $131.20 on Friday morning closed $142 and I wrote the 3/145 calls against it @ $2.25 today.

 

It is also my intention to write calls or even buy some short-dated puts to guard against a quick setback.  This didn’t work for FB last week but we didn’t gain 94% last year by not playing the percentages.

 

The big names today were up, but no massively.  GOOGL +2.72, AAPL+ .95, AMZN+10.90, TSLA (which reports shortly)+6.72, GS+1.29, BA+2.81, IBM -.59, NFLX +.38.  The internals were 3:1 and 2.5:1 on the NYSE and about the same on NASDAQ.  The cross currents still abound.  The US$ was higher but gold and oil still rallied.  So, that’s it for tonight.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

 

CAM

 

                         

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After the close 2/16/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING February 17th

 

Today was another day that the markets just couldn’t get up a head of steam in either direction.  It seems that the default setting on this market has been set on “if we can’t go higher today, at least we’re not going down.”

 

With the exception of TSLA (downgraded) and down $12.26, the rest of the big names were sharply unchanged.  GOOGL+3.88, AAPL- .21, AMZN+.80, BA+1.50, IBM-.25, FB+.16.  The financials were also a bit lower with GS-1.54, BAC -.05, and JPM -.14.

 

The weakest sector was the Transports in great part to the earnings miss by CAR and a drop of $4.90 (12%). The oils were also weak with XOM- .93, APC-1.21, VLO -1.16 and CVX -1.89.  The oil looks like it is trying to hold $53 as the new low end of the range and work higher but it’s clearly too early to tell if it will make it.

 

Gold worked higher again but is down about $2.80 as we go to press tonight.  A break over $1247 is necessary to break it out.

 

Have a good Presidents Day Monday as the markets are closed.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

 

CAM

                         

 

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After the close 2/15/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING February 16th

 

 

Another day, 4 more new highs in the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, & Russell2000.  Almost getting to be the expected daily headline, which in itself is particularly telling.  We could be getting back to the point where we count the days or weeks between 1000 point intervals instead of months and years.  Internals were again okay but not excessive with the NYSE volume 5:3 and A/D 4:3 and NASDAQ 2:1 and 9:5 respectively.

 

We took a profit in the TWTR 3/16 calls and replaced them with a 50% larger position in the17’s to cut the risk and increase the leverage and also took a GLD position.  We continue to hold a position in the FB expiring 131 puts on the chance that this overbought stock, unable to move the last several days in this dramatic move and down today will crack a few dollars on any weakness.  It’s a small position in dollars and big in leverage so I’ll give it another day.

 

The other big names were mostly higher but running out of steam; GOOGL -2.43,

 AAPL+.56, AMZN+5.99, BA+ .82, NFLX+1.56, IBM+1.56, and FB -.50.  Financials

were again higher with GS +1.11, BAC+61 (2.54%) and JPM+1.14.

 

So 4 readers (a very small percentage) took some offense at my calling Cramer an idiot In last night’s message so let me explain tonight.  Yesterday he hated TWTR, said so for all the world to hear on CNBC pre-market, and then it promptly opened down a few pennies from where it was trading and ran up $ .71 or 4.5%.  Today, same time same station now he likes it.  Totally irresponsible.  No wonder they run the disclaimer at the end of his segments that say “the opinions of Mr. Cramer are his and do not reflect….”

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 2/14/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING February 15th

 

Another day, 4 more new highs in the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000.  Happy Valentine’s Day and everyone’s in love with the market.  The TWTR position I put on yesterday survived that idiot Cramer’s panning it premarket and started up almost from the open and after the close it was reported that Jack Dorsey bought another 425,998 shares in the open market yesterday and today.  Add to the one Saudi Prince, Vanguard, and a cast of thousands with a collapsed stock and you get M&A talk.  I don’t really care about the why, just that the $16 calls we got yesterday @ $ .71 looked pretty at the close @ $1.04 with the stock trading as high as $16.75 in extended hours.

 

The big names dominated the tape today with AAPL +$2.11 new all-time hi/close, GOOGL+ .64, AMZN +-.91, BA+ .47, NFLX -2.37 (looking tired), IBM+ .47; and the Financials roaring ahead with GS +3.49, BAC +.75 and JPM +1.51.

 

The metals were little changed and oil was up $ .27 (.05%).  We are still trying to buy ANW for the week and the K 3/77.50 calls. I’m also expecting another pullback in MOS to be a buyer of calls since we still own the stock.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

 

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After the close 2/13/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING February 14th

 

Today was spent in Las Vegas working (really) and am traveling back on the red eye tonight.  The market started strong and held all day giving up of the gains on pullbacks.  The internals in both the NYSE and NASDAQ were again good but not excessive at 2:1 volume and 3:2 A/D on both.

 

The big names looked pretty good with GOOGL +3.52, AAPL+1.27, AMZN+8.99, TSLA+11.27, BA+1.82. The only standout was NFLX-1.61 with what looks like a short term reversal day.  Financials came along again with GS+4.03, BAC+.36, and JPM+1.24.

 

We sold the last of the MOS calls for a net gain of 224% in 9 trading days and bought one that EVERYONE hates, TWTR calls.  As I’ve said before, “everyone is never right,” and I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

 

The only area of my screen that was red today was metals and oil.

 

Tomorrow is another day. (Unless you forgot Valentine’s Day and then maybe not!!)

 

 CAM

   

 

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After the close 2/9/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING February 10th

 

Today was another Trump tweet fueled rally that started with “a major announcement on taxes next week,” with all the appropriate hyperbole.  “Action in the next 2-3 weeks.”  And so we took off and never really looked back.  The Dow finished off its highs but +118 nonetheless, NASDAQ +32.73, S&P500 +13.20 and the leader was the Russell with a gain of 19.78 or 1.46%.  Internals were respectable but not excessive with the NYSE 2:1 in both A/D and Volume while the NASDAQ was almost 3:1 A/D and 2:1 volume.

 

The K calls were sold on the 100% Up Rule today just after the open and we added a new position in XOM April calls.  The Options Only  account YTD profits are now 25.21%.  For those of you who would like to see more information on the rationale for individual trades you can go to: https://www.tradingview.com/u/GreatWizeOz/#published-charts and see why we make some of the trades we do.

 

The big names were a mixed bag again; GOOGL -.82, AAPL +.98, AMZN +1.27, FB -.11, BA +.74, IBM =1.04, NFLX -.72, &TSLA +7.17.  Financials picked up the ball and ran with GS+3.82, BAC =.46, &JPM 1.24.

 

Gold came in a bit and is down 10 @1227 with oil up .08 @ $53.08.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

 

 CAM

   

 

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After the close 2/8/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING February 9th

 

Today was another earnings driven day.  PNRA beat and was +18.33, as did ORLY + 9.43 while GILD missed along with AKAM which we -6.37 and – 7.41 respectively.  After the close we had LVLT, WFM and CTL which were little changed although CTL may be lower at the open.

 

We had a great trade in AMZN having bought the 2/10 815 calls yesterday @ $3.25 and selling half this morning @ $5.30 and the second piece @ $6.90 using the texting service.  Most of the big names were again little changed with GOOGL +,34, AAPL +.63, TSLA +7.51,  NFLX +.88, IBM -1.06, BA - .74 while FB which looked like a reversal yesterday turned on a dime and closed +2.41.  The financials were again lower with GS -1.86, BAC - .23 and JPM -.76.  The oil bounced off $51.22 and closed up on the day and is higher tonight by just $ .16 @ 52.50 but shouldn’t have much trouble testing the top of the range @ 53.50-54.  Gold continued to grind higher and could easily test 1260, as discussed last week @ $1220.

 

We are still long K with earning pre-market and I don’t really know what to expect, but the stock is a defensive issue and I don’t foresee any real trouble, and we added OSIR today and intend to buy more either up or down.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 2/7/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING February 8th

 

I was really surprised this evening when I started to write this and noticed that the internals were as weak as they were.  Frankly, I was so involved with the MOS option position that we came into the day with (forgetting they reported) and a couple of other longs that we’ve held on to like EYES $2.56 +1.01 on news, that I failed to see just how soft a lot of stocks were.  We sold the MOS 2/32 calls on our 100% Up Rule @ $1.24 and still own the second half @ $ .62 (closed @ .79).

 

Back to the internals: NYSE A/D 13:17, Vol. 286:520

                                        NASDAQ A/D   3:4, Vol. 4:5

 

So, not dramatic but not an up day either.  There are many charts that I really don’t like or at least from the long side. FB rallied into resistance but closed slightly lower and on the low of the day.  AAPL is outside the upper Bollinger Band and is dramatically overbought.  I bought some AMZN 815 calls today and think it may try a run to $820-825 in the next couple of days.  The other big names were mixed.  GOOGL +7.61, NFLX +2.73, AMZN +4.90, BA +2.62, IBM +2.62.  Financials were minorly lower with GS- .38, BAC -.27, and JPM -.11.

 

The Gold was into resistance in the 1236-1240 area and is just $1 lower right now while the oil was down pretty hard and continues tonight @ $51.36-.81.  The XRT (retail ETF) looks vulnerable as do many of its components and two of my favorite love to hate stocks, HOG and SIG continue to look terrible.

 

Tomorrow is another day !

 

 CAM

   

 

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After the close 2/6/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

FOR TRADING February 7th

 

Today’s minor changes in the indexes masked a decidedly weaker market.  Although the DJIA was lower from the start and rallied to finish off only 19 (.09%) the adv/dec was 5:9 and the volume was solidly 2:1 down.  NASDAQ was as bad on the A/D side but volume was about even.

 

The big names did relatively little; GOOGL +.02, AAPL +1.19, AMZN – 4.45, NFLX + .75, TSLA + 6.71, BA +1.58, FB +1.10.  Financials were lower, although not by much; GS – 1.17, BAC - .16, JPM -.41.

 

The metals were higher again and we missed buying the SLV calls but I will adjust the price and expiration in the next few days.  GLD was +$1.57 and NUGT (3X ETF) was +1.35 or 11.35%.  Oil was lower and I got stopped out of a trade put on only this morning.

I’m growing concerned with the amount of pushback on Trump on an international basis.  Not because I think it’s necessarily right, but because it will eventually degrade optimism here at home.  There is nothing that can turn a market faster than geopolitical issues.

 

The futures are mostly unchanged.  Oil, Gold and Silver are slightly higher and stocks are unchanged.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 2/2/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING February 3rd

 

It was pretty quiet today, right up until the close when the earnings started to hit.  At that point it became an example of what happens when stocks are priced for perfection.  First to hit was AMZN beat on earnings but missed n revenues and traded down from $839 to close @ $805-27.  CMG followed and even though they pre-announced it still traded off 10 to 413 and then rallied back to $421+1.20.  DECK, one of my favorite stocks to hate didn’t disappoint me, but the market hated its miss on earnings, revenues and guidance…the trifecta of disappointments and collapsed from $56.80 to close $42.75 down a scant $14.10 or just under 25%.  FEYE WAS $10.65 – 2.50, RL 76.59 – 10.79, and GPRO was trading 11 and closed 9.60-.97.

 

The rest of the day was a washout with the averages less than .25% above or below unchanged.  Market internals were barely positive on the NYSE and barely negative on NASDAQ.

 

There were some problems with some charts.  FB ran up on its earning last night and followed thru this morning and then fell back and made what looks like a one-day reversal off the top Bollinger Band that could easily test  $122-124. With the gains since the first of the year we could see some major profit taking.

 

Our trades in K is breaking out after making a series of higher lows.  It is still oversold on The weekly charts and if it gets above 74.49 it looks higher.  MOS traded off a bit but recovered to close off only $.23.

 

Tomorrow is another day !!

CAM

   

 

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After the close 2/1/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING February 2nd

 

 

Today would have been a loss for both the Dow and the NASDAQ were it not for last night’s AAPL earnings.  In fact, as part of the S&P 500, it probably would have turned that one down too.  Several other indexes like the Russell were only down a minor amount, but finished the day near the absolute lows after being 1.75% higher in the morning.  There was similar action in GOOGL -6.09, TSLA -2.68 and several other big names.  As mentioned above AAPL +7.46, AMZN +11.86, FB +3.08 after trading +6 after beating on top and bottom lines just after the close.  A lesser known name ARNC, the spinoff from the separation from AA was up a monster 2.39 or 10.51%.  This is the high-tech portion while AA is the commodity division.

 

The financials we slightly higher on the economic numbers even though they weren’t severe enough to cause concern for higher interest rates right away.  GS +.79, BAC +.19, and JPM + .22.

 

The gold, silver and oil were all higher after lackluster starts on a FED decision day. The oil is slightly lower tonight but gold is currently up $6 and the silver is $ .14.  While The gold is just under the 1220 tops while the silver has actually into the area that would be considered a move into what was a gap down.

Last, our trade in MOS got off to a roaring start, sold off midday, and then came on again at the close.  Our calls (.62) traded $1.07 before closing @ $ .89+.07.

Tomorrow’s another day !!

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 1/31/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING February 1st

 

Today an excellent day for our newest trade in MOS.  If you missed the text or Twitter you can see it at:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/MOS/lo7NGa4Y-TIME-TO-TRY-IT-AGAIN/

 

As for the rest of the market it was sharply lower early but the internals were never worse that 2:1 down @ 10:00am and finished strong and positive.  NYSE volume was 6:5 and A/D was 9:5 positive.  NASDAQ was slightly less positive at 10:9 and 17:11, but it has run so far ahead that I really can’t complain.

 

AAPL did not disappoint and was +3.39 in late trade, GOOGL was as low as 813 and closed on the high @$823-.83, AMZN -5.63, GS- 4.58, TSLA +1.57, BA -1.72, while the metals were all higher.  We didn’t get the SLV calls and the SLV + .40, AGQ +1.90, GLD +1.58 and GDX (miners) $23.93 + .78 or 3.37%.

 

All in all a mixed day with only the Dow and the Transports really lower.  Well, tomorrow is another day…

CAM  

   

 

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After the close 1/30/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING January 13th

  

Well, we are very light with only one position, and a defensive one at that, K 2/75 calls having taken profits last week in anticipation of the MOS “inside day” reversal and the failure of HOG to breakout.  As I mentioned this weekend in Weekly Strategies, there are plenty of charts that are overbought and few that are at support with reasonable risk/ reward profiles.  I am trying to buy the SLV 3/$16.50 calls @ $ .36 OB but they never got there today so I’ll just be patient.

 

So the morons on TV today were talking about today being the WORST DAY of the year.  As if 20 days in is even qualifies as a meaningful statistic.  The big names did get hurt but really, after $100 up and a reversal day in GOOGL, does -21 really matter?  AAPL -.10, AMZN -5.62, NFLX -1.20, GS -3.27, TSLA -2.63, FB -1.08IBM -1.52 and of course Energy was soft. With APC-1.17 and oil coming a bit closer to the bottom of the range near $52.

 

The XRT has come down hard since early December and may have finally “blown-off” today. It has closed the gap from November and could easily bounce here.  I would play the ETF rather than try to pick an individual winner.

 

Tomorrow is another day !!

 

CAM

 

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After the close 1/26/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING January 27th

 

 

It was pretty quiet today.  Fortunately we sold the balance of the MOS call position yesterday @ $1.92, since the stock opened lower today by $1.26 and then continued lower.  Our sale was followed by a move to $ .95 and a close @ $1.08-.88.  A little later in the day I bought the stock @ $31.46 at what I consider support.  I’d probably add again if it moves to $31, but it has already closed the gap from the break to the upside and the options will start to look attractive if we stabilize.

 

The market was really a non-event.  We are due a rest and that’s exactly what we got.  The Dow was +32, a meaningless amount and the S&P -1.69, NASDAQ -1.16, Russell-6.84, and the Transports made a new high and high close +48.

 

In the big names GOOGL miss “expectations” even though they beat and it is trading down 30, SBUX same store numbers missed and it’s down 2.50.  Most of the others are little changed.  AAPL+.10, NFLX -.87, AMZN -1.02, GS +1.95, BAC -.08, JPM +.73, TSLA -2.67, BA + 1.48 and IBM + .32.

 

The internals matched the action with the NYSE finished 1.5:1 down volume and 14:15 A/D.  NASDAQ was even close with volume barely 8.5:9.3 down and 1:1.4 A/D.  All in all just one of those resting days.

 

 

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 1/25/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING January 26th

Today we gapped up at the start and 20000 was never an issue.  The only question now is, was it a breakaway gap or do we have to fill it?  The only two of the major indexes that didn’t make new highs were the ever-lagging Transports and the Russell 2000.  I know that this is clearly inconclusive on both their parts since they are so close, but it’s my job to point it out nonetheless.

 

It’s hard for me to find any symbols in red on my watch-list today except the inverse ETFs and gold related stocks.  I can count the exceptions on one hand, AA which we sold part yesterday and the balance today, MOS which I sold the second half of calls today @ over 100% gain, and LMT which I tried to buy yesterday on the dip and rallied only to falter late in the morning.

 

The big names were all in vogue, GOOGL +9.86, AAPL +1.88, AMZN +13.64, GS +4.27, FB +2.37, BA + 6.81(earnings), IBM +2.37, and ISRG + 33.95 (earnings), JPM + 1.43 and BAC + .43.

 

The adv/dec and volume numbers were good but not excessive. NYSE 2:1, and NASDAQ 2.5:1.  It was orderly and I’m not sounding an alarm, but in many of these names the volume in the last week has been declining while the stocks rose.

 

Tomorrow is another day!!

 

 

CAM

 

   

 

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After the close 1/24/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING January 25th

 

Today was strong from the start and the internals matched the action every step of the way.  After the close AA had an earnings miss but revenue beat and the stock traded from $37 back up to $38.70+2.31.  ISRG had a beat and was up about 20.  Our position in MOS exploded to the upside +$2.10 and our calls closed $2.27+1.26.  These cost $ .92 and we sold some but kept half for a continued run higher.

 

It was the big names that were actually more moderately higher today with GOOGL +5.10, AMZN +4.52, NFLX + 2.76, IBM +4.74, BA +2.83, TSLA + 5.44,  and STX +3 on earning after the close.

 

Financials were not to be left behind with GS +1.28, BAC +.43, and JPM +1.20.  Gold tried 1220 again and failed to make any headway and closed 1210- 4.80 right near the lows.  Oil was up $ .43 but seems to be locked into the $52-$55 range while the bonds gave up ground down over a point.

 

While everyone seems to have something to complain about the new President he is certainly making friends where it counts.  As it turns out, the media doesn’t run any steel mills or put on overalls and go to work building pipelines or bridges, but those who do are pleased with his initial actions.  Good work Donald.

 

 

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 1/23/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING January 24th

 

 

Today was another day that looked like it wanted to go down, but it just wouldn’t happen.  At the lows of midday we were lower by 83 on the Dow and 14 on the S&P.

The internals were about 2:1 down volume on both NYSE and NASDAQ but they finished 4:3 and 8:7 respectively.  So the rally back to Dow -27 and NASDAQ -2 with S&P -6, the only real standout was the Transports down 1%.

 

The biggest loser today was QCOM, a major chip maker who was named in a lawsuit by AAPL and started off only a few dollars pre-market but downgrades pushed the stock down  over $9 and closed @ $54.90-7.98 or almost 13%.  Another chip maker we own, AMBA was also taken down but recovered and closed near its highs.

 

Our other big names did well today.  GOOGL +16.26, AMZN +9.52, TSLA +4.17, FB + 2.15, and NFLX the only loser -1.24.  The financials were mixed with GS +.47, BAC -.07 and JPM +.04.

 

We added a new position in K calls today on a small downdraft and like the rest of the market, it too rallied back from - .60 to slightly higher on the day.

 

Gold put in another constructive day with a close right near the daily high and up $12.90.  Resistance looms above but not really meaningfully until 1236-1240.  A move back to 1245-1250 is not out of the question here…

 

CAM

 

   

 

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After the close 1/19/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING January 20th

 

 

Well, Inauguration Day is upon us.  So what does that actually mean?  I can’t think of a thing.  Seems like we’ve had a rally since Election Day so we have pretty much discounted anything that was going to happen except a monumental flub of the speech or some incredibly inane or inappropriate comment by the new President.  Frankly, I don’t really foresee either, but you just never know.

 

What I do know is that IBM missed and is trading $162.80-$4.00, AXP is -$1.00, and the big names were mixed.  GOOGL -4.52, AAPL-.21, but NFLX+4.88 after 10 higher, TSLA +$5 on a MS upgrade, FB-.36 and AA+ .64.

 

The markets were all down but only the Russell was even close to 1% and the internals on the NYSE were again worse than the NASDAQ at 2:1 and 3:1 Vol and A/D vs 2:1 and 2.5:1 the later.

 

The gold rallied slightly off -$15 to close just over 1201-10, while oil was mid-range and slightly higher.  The bonds closed -1, and the UD$ was higher as you’d expect.

 

The market feel a bit tired to me, but the NASDAQ just keeps outperforming.  The question is still are the Transports which were up 23 today, but faded over 100 from the highs leading the way lower??

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 1/18/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING January 19th

 

Today was a great example of a day where just about nothing happened unless you had specific news.  The internals were roughly even all day on the NYSE and the same on NASDAQ until the later from 2:00 until the close and finished 5:3 stocks and 4:3 volume.

 

So, let’s look at the ones with news: NFLX beat and closed $133 and then traded up to $144.30 closing +10.91.  PSO, an educational textbook company missed and closed $7.13-2.86 or 29%. TGT missed and closed $66.85-4.09 or 5.77%.

 

The other big names were mixed: GOOGL+2.53, AAPL-.02, AMZN+1.27, GS-1.38, JPM +.44, TSLA+3.14, IBM-.92 and one we own that almost never gets mentioned, AA  $32.65+2.01 (6.16%) on news of filing a WTO suit against China for dumping.

 

Gold ran into resistance at 1220 and fell back to 1211 and is now (8:30PM) down another $8.80 @ 1203.30.  Oil is up $ .35, bonds -14/32, stocks unchanged across the board, but it’s still early.

 

We got stopped out a penny off the low of the day in the VXX calls.  It triggered the 50% Down Rule and although I think we still need protection against a selloff, the rules are the rules.  We are still up 9.03% YTD.  Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 1/17/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING January 18th

 

So, the question remains, Are the Dow and the Transports leading the way or just running behind?  I mentioned this last night and on Sunday and today wasn’t much of an answer.  The Dow was down triple digits and again rallied to close down only $60 or .30%.  The Transports didn’t manage as well closing near the lows @ 9099.58-102.73 or 1.12% almost 4X as bad.  S&P500 was down .30%, but the Russell was off almost 20 or 1.44% 5X worse than the Dow or S&P.  These are important divergences.

 

The big names were weak.  GOOGL -3.54, AMZN-8.11, GS-7.38, BAC-.92, JPM- 2.98, TSLA-2.17.  Some of our “January Effect “stocks have run, come back in and are moving again, case in point, WTW.  Brought to your attention @ $10.40, sold out of options vs. $13.60, fell back to $11, today hit $13.49 and closed $12.70+.47.

 

We also bought the VXX today while it was lower, but was disappointed with the close since it was down while the S&P was also lower.  We’ll need more downside to profit on this one, or we’ll be looking at a 50% Down Rule trigger.

 

The futures are all roughly unchanged tonight (9:55PM) so I guess we’ll just have to wait and see what the morning brings.  

 

CAM

 

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.

After MLK Holiday

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING January 17th

 

Just a short note since we didn’t have any trading here today.  The futures are slightly lower tonight with the S&P 500 -$6.50, the Dow -$52 and NASDAQ-$10.75.  Oil is barely changed @ $52.50-.13 but the Gold is higher by $7.30.  None of these are particularly meaningful and it is still early (7:20 PM EDT) so things can change quite a bit, but we’ll all have to wait and see.

 

As I mentioned in the Weekly Strategies last night, the only 2 indexes that are not overbought are the Dow and the Transports.  Don’t really know if that’s because they are leading us or just need to catch up.  The internals have been better than I would have expected at these levels so I’ll still have to key off the big guys.  AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, FB, GS, JPM, AAPL, IBM, and BA.  They have been leading the way higher and have been the best way to judge.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 1/12/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING January 13th

 

 

Well, will Friday the 13th be good or bad luck?  No clue, but the recovery of this market  continued today with the closes much closer to the highs than the lows.  The Dow was down almost 200 before turning and rallying to close down only 30 off $63.

 

The big names were mixed with GOOGL - .11, AAPL -.58, AMZN+15, NFLX -1.20,  

and BAC - .17, GS -1.24.  Our positions did very well today.  GDX was written against and fell after the morning rally,  and MOS continues to be sold down only to rally in the late afternoon.

 

Calling it a night but Sunday night’s letter will look at several new trades coming out of consolidations..

 

CAM

 

   

 

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After the close 1/11/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING January 12th

 

I found today to be a remarkable day.  The Gold started a little lower rallied, fell and finally rallied to close pretty strongly.  The oil started lower, rallied, fell below $51 and then rallied all the way up $2 to almost $53 and also closed strong.  These market are holding incredibly well since coming off their recent lows.

 

Stocks are also putting on a great show.  Everyone (MEDIA) is still waiting for Trump to fall on his ass, and were pretty sure that today was going to be the day.  It looked like they might be right when he started off with his comments about pharma and LMT (which forced a 50% Down Rule liquidation for me) but I thought did a great job for the rest of his press conference.  The internals weren’t great, but they were positive all day with the exception of the 1:00-1:45 period.

 

The big guys weren’t great either but they did close at or near highs and up on the day.  GOOGL +3.97, AAPL +.64 (got my new watch today), AMZN +3.15, APC+2.02, IBM +2.24, GS +3.23.  You really couldn’t ask for more.

 

As to our trades, we are 4/5 including another 100% Rule close on the SJM calls bought just Monday.  We covered the GDX covered write and rewrote next month’s $22.50s, but the best trade for me is the MOS calls.  The stock has probed the downside 4 days in a row and today closed at a new high close since late 2015.  If it breaks thru $31.54 it looks to me like $34-36.

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 1/10/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING January 11th

 

 

Yet another Oil driven day where the NASDAQ ignored all the other markets and marched its way higher to another new record.  The Dow was down, then up, and then back to close pretty close to the day’s lows.  However, you wouldn’t know it from the markets internals.  On the NYSE the volume was 1.5:1 UP and the A/D was 1:8:1 UP.

On the NASDAQ it was 1.5 and 1.8:1 UP, so regardless, both markets were stronger than they appeared.  This represents the rotational manner in which this market is operating.  The big names, GOOGL -.68, AAPL + .16, AMZN -1.42, NFLX -1.15, TSLA -1.78 SPY UNCH all pale in comparison to recent sessions.

 

The financials were the same: GS -.01, BAC +.43, JPM +.39, XLF +.05.  A truly mixed day.  I’ve held off buying back the WTW or calls and probably won’t.  It can’t seem to gather any upside momentum, but if it can hold 10.75-11 I’ll give it a good look.

 

The group that is grabbing my attention now is the cyber-security stocks.  The ETF is HACK.  It’s a little overbought but I can’t imagine that it isn’t going to be a good year for the group.  Some of the individual names are PANW, CUDA, FEYE, FTNT, and CYBR.  I’ll be doing some work on these in the next few days and including them in the Weekly Strategies Sunday night.

 

CAM

 

   

 

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.

After the close 1/9/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING January 10th

 

Today was another oil driven down day for the Dow, while the NASDAQ moved higher yet again.  The only problem was that while the volume was 2:1 up, the A/D were almost 2:1 down.  On the NYSE volume was almost 3:1 down with the A/D line 1.8:1.1 down, not very impressive.  We had orders in under the market in several issues and bought MOS calls, SJM calls, and again came very close to the 100% Rule trigger in LMT.

 

The big names were mostly mixed with GOOGL +1.97, AAPL +1, AMZN + .66  and the financials lower.  GS -2.1, BAC -.13.  The $SPY seems tired but unless it falls back below the year end close @ $2233 it should be fine.

 

The gold has acted well, but I am written against my GDX position.  I think there is a small pullback coming in the metals so I’m pretty comfortable.

 

We need just a little more upside tomorrow to keep the January barometer intact…

 

There’s always hope and capital inflows at this time of year..

 

 

CAM

 

   

 

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After the close 1/5/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING January 6th

 

Well, the Dow may not have hit 20,000 today but the big name NASDAQ stocks had no problem moving higher.  AMZN in sharp contrast to the retail sector (discussed here last night) managed a gain of $24.52 and closed right near the high.  FB was also higher and looks like it may be getting ready for an assault on the recent highs around 124, and as mentioned 10 days ago around $122, NFLX has broken out to new highs and closed today $132.03+ 2.62.  TSLA was unchanged after it great gain yesterday.

 

The US$ weakness sent the XLF lower and BAC -.28, JPM -.81 AND GS -2.03.

 

Also mentioned yesterday, some of our smaller favorites, GSK, CTL, GDX also had some follow-thru again and GSK in particular looks like it has put in a pretty nice bottom for a move back to the mid $40s. We sold some GDX 1/23.50 calls against our $18.91 position.  CTL was up another .31 or 1.22%.

 

The markets were mixed.  NYSE A/D were slightly negative but not meaningfully.  NASDAQ had the same profile and the final numbers A/D 1.7:1 down and volume was even.  Both very healthy but getting towards excessive.  It looks like 20,000 is next week’s big event.

 

CAM

                                                                                                 

 

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After the close 1/4/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING January 5th

 

Way back last year around Xmas I commented about how bad I thought retail was going to be based only upon my personal shopping experience and the degree that the mall stores were already discounting pre-holiday.  Well, after the close today this came home to roost with bad news from Macy’s -$3 (8.7%), Kohl’s -$5.58 (11%), Nordstrom -$1.44 (3%) with either major layoffs or dramatically lowered forward guidance.  Not a good sign for brick and mortar retail.

 

We had a major home run with one of the “January Effect” stocks, oversold from tax-loss selling and with a major short position (55% of the float) WTW.  We bought the 1/$11.50 calls yesterday @ $ .70 and sold half @ $1.60 and the second half @ $2.45 today on a run from$11.18 to $13.40.  Not at all a bad start for the year.  It has a habit of pullbacks, so I’ll be keeping a close eye.

 

The big guys had another good day: AMZN +3.03, NFLX +2.01, TSLA was soft premarket on disappointing deliveries but better news on the giga-plant for batteries sent it from down @ $211 early to close @ $226.60+9.61.

 

Some of our smaller favorites, GSK, CTL, GDX also had some follow-thru again and GSK in particular looks like it has put in a pretty nice bottom for a move back to the mid $40s.

 

The markets were all higher and the internals again expanded.  NYSE A/D were solid all day and both they and volume were 6:1 at the close.  NASDAQ had the same profile and the final numbers were 4:1.  Both very healthy but getting towards excessive.  It looks like 20,000 is this week’s big event.  And since the Santa Claus rally includes the first 2 trading days of the New Year, we’re actually positive, if only by 9 points.  The January barometer is racing ahead with 2 days gone and 2 days to go..Keep your fingers crossed.

 

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 1/3/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING January 4th

 

I find it truly interesting, and pleasantly surprising that  the President-elect has chosen to use his “bully-pulpit” to address what he sees as issues that are causing inequities for the American workers instead of to continue to run for office and lay blame on the opposing party for each and every problem facing the country.  The contrast is staggering.

 

Big name NASDAQ stocks led the way today with GOOGL +14.55, AMZN+4.02, NFLX +3.53, and TSLA +3.30.  Financials were right behind with GS +2.11, BAC +.23, JPM +.99 and he XLF + .23

 

We also have positive positions in LMT$253.31 +3.37 and CTL $25.35 +1.57. The latter is a deal with LVLT and when it was announce as a “merger of equals” CTL was $31- 32.  I believe that when this deal is completed CTL will be substantially higher.  We paid only $23.29 for it and received a dividend of $ .54.

 

We were much stronger at the open but when the oil reversed midday we sold off to almost even.  The SCO (inverse Oil 3X) was as low as 60.24 but closed 66.01+2.71.  APC managed to hold on to some gain at 70.54 +.81.

Natural gas was the big loser in the group.  It was down even when the oil was up over  2% and finished the day $3.339 -.385 down 10%.

 

Market internals never went negative and finished the day solidly ahead on both NYSE  and NASDAQ.

 CAM

   

 

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After the close 12/29/2016

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 30TH

 

Had a funeral today so I missed 90% of the day’s action, but I’m beginning to think that putting out a text with my sell orders first thing in the morning and then ignoring what goes on might be a better way for me to trade.  It certainly worked today with the close out of the NVDA put trade.  We bought the 1/115 puts on Tuesday @ $5.00 and except for a little rally between the purchase and the high the next morning we couldn’t have done much better.  The support was around $104 (it actually traded 102.80) and so we were sellers @ $11.99 OB and got $12.40 before it reversed and rallied to $111.41 at the close and $113.25 after hours.  We missed the high on the puts @ $13.33, but they closed $7.84-1.04 and will be lower at the open.

 

It’s questionable as to the status of the Santa Claus rally, but we’re 1 day up, 2 down with only 1 to go.  Internals were slightly positive on the NYSE and close enough to be called even on NASDAQ.

 

The other position I’m pleased with tonight is the Gold, specifically the GDX (miners)  We bought the GDX in 2 pieces with an average of $20.81 and when it rallied last time we sold the 1/21 calls against it and made $ .90, so our avg. is now 19.91.  Today’s close of $21.88 means we’re solidly ahead and I’ll look to sell some more out of the money’s again.  We also recommended WTW as a tax-loos sell candidate 10 days ago @ $10.05 looking for a rally.  It’s been $12.50 already and closed $11.58 today.  I’d use a target around $13.50 in January.

 

The big tech names were quiet today.  GOOGL -2.07, AMZN -7.08, NFLX -.49, TSLA -5, with GLD +1.64, and GS-2.40 and BAC .33 to round out the financials.

 

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 12/28/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 29TH

 

Another day, another failure of the market (S&P500) to make any headway into the overhead resistance just above the market’s current levels.  I actually used that opening line on November 1st, but it works for today too.  The difference is that on 11/1 it was a short range inside day and we turned up the next day.  Today it was the worst day since the election and the close was on the low.

 

A couple of weeks ago I mentioned that we were headed for a Dow Theory Breakout with the Transports finally catching up to the Industrials and that I felt it was a cause for concern, not celebration.  The reason was that more often than not, once the DJT catch up and give the buy signal we run into exhaustion and reverse by 5-10%.  So, on 12/7 we burst thru the prior high @ 9310 and 2 days later ran out of gas @ 9490.  Today’s close @ 9088 is roughly 4%, a good start.

 

If the Santa Claus rally gets off track, and the year-end rebalancing and profit taking next week start to take place we could have a replay of last January / February.

 

The internals were ugly.  NASDAQ was 2.5:1 down volume and stocks, but the big numbers were only 3 of the NASDAQ 100 higher and 90% of the S&P 500 down.

 

Our newest position, NVDA 1/115 Puts bought yesterday @ $5 look pretty good with the stock gapping up and then closing on the lows @ 109.25 -8.07 and down another 2 in extended trading.  The options closed $8.88.

CAM

   

 

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After the close 12/27/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 28TH

 

 

Another incredibly boring but internally strong day for the Santa Claus rally to begin.  While we made very little headway in the Dow, the NASDAQ made a new high and finished up 24.75 or .45%.  Volume was over 2:1 up and the A/D was 1.8:1.  These are not excessive while being decisive.  The big movers on NASDAQ were all the standards; GOOGL +2.13, AMZN +10.79, NFLX (getting ready for a new leg up) + 2.71, TSLA +6.46, and the big current “star” NVDA +8.  I bought the 1/115 puts since NVDA has gone “Parabolic” and will come down to earth (hopefully) sooner than later.  This is a very small position (2/1) in the big and small accounts.

 

As to the “Magical” 20,000 Dow, it’s already getting tiresome listening to the idiots try to explain why it means something more than just a round number.  It’s like political advertisements, the first couple of times you listen, then they’re boring, then a pain in the ass and then you just want it to be over.  Like banging your head against the wall, feels great when you stop.  “Is today the day?”   Who cares ?

Well, we’ll hope it’s the 2nd or 3rd day of the Santa Claus rally.  Just for the relief !!

 

 

CAM

 

 

 

 

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After the close 12/22/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 23RD

 

Well, we’re back to the disaster du jour scenario today since we were never in the position to break 20,000.  And, the winner is…Red Hat (RHT) with earnings that included a downward revision of revenues that caused a gap down open from yesterday’s close of $79.79 to $70.30 and the continued move to the low of the day of $68.54 and closing the day @ $68.72 – 11.07 or almost 14%.  Not the kind of news to have with your Wheaties.

 

Retail was also a mess with the BBBY earnings last night a big miss -8% and GAP, JWN, GAP and DG following and the XRT (retail ETF) following suit.  This is not a good sign the last few days before Xmas.

 

The big tech names GOOGL -2.52, AMZN -4.26,FB -1.62 were lower but not in any meaningful way, and the financials were the same with BAC - .10, GS -1.32 and the XLF was – only .06.

 

As for the indexes, the Dow -23, S&P -4.22, NASDAQ -24 and the Russell the big loser down 12.53 or .91% (6X the others).  The internals were sloppy but by no means of any real concern.  The only place that had a pickup in volume was the retail sector and the home retailers (BBBY, RH, etc).

 

This market will break 20,000, you can count on it!  Just not on any particular schedule.  If one more moron says a watched pot never boils I’ll shoot the TV.  A watched pot DOES boil, when it’s supposed to, when it gets to 212 deg.

 

 CAM

 

   

 

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After the close 12/21/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 22nd

 

WHAT IF THEY GAVE A MARKET AND NOBODY CAME??  That pretty well sums up what today’s market looked like.  At noon we had a 37 point range on the Dow and I could have taken a nap and missed nothing. It was a sloppy open with no real direction and there was really no leadership.  NKE (worst performer in the Dow) met its lowered expectations and was up a little but was unchanged by noon and finished up a fraction. Another earnings report that didn’t fare well was FDX.  They missed and talked about price increases for non-commercial accounts and the stock closed -$6.62.  This caused a substantial under performance of the DJ Transports -80 or .86% roughly 5 times that of the Industrials.

 

Financials were mixed with JPM +.22, BAC -.08 and the leader, GS -2.09.  Tech was the same with GOOGL -3, AMZN -.72, NFLX +1.44, TSLA -1.03 and FB -.15.  All in all a whole lot of nothing.

 

Say what you will about the President elect, but he is getting results.  After meeting with Boeing, the CEO came out and said “we are aware of the cost issues and will be sure to bring in the new Air Force One planes at under $4 billion.”

 

After the market closed we had a beat by MU and the stock which closed $20.58 traded to $22.57.  Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) wasn’t as fortunate missed and after closing $45.56 was below $43 before rallying to $44.50.

 

Looking for another quiet day tomorrow.  

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 12/20/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 21ST

 

Just a short note tonight.  We continued the climb to 20,000 again today without much in the way of any economic or world news.  The market internals were supportive without being excessive with both A/D and volume roughly 2:1 up on both the NYSE and NASDAQ.

 

Again, the big names participated: GOOGL +2.70, AMZN+ 5.22, TSLA + 6.06 while FB and NFLX were fractionally lower.  In the financials, JPM + 1.14, BAC + .24 and the big leader, GS was +$4.02, just a 33% gain since early November.

 

As I mentioned on today’s radio show, I’m working on a list of “January Effect” stocks. These are companies that have been down for the year and undergo tax-loss selling at or near year end and tend to rise in early January.  We are already in one of these stocks, VRX. But I’m also looking at XCO, a natural gas play, GRPN, the big discount  coupon distributor, and WTW, Weight Watchers, which has a seasonal move after everyone is fat and unhappy about it and makes their New Year’s resolutions.

 

More to come after the First.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 12/19/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 20th

 

So let me start by saying that I’m really getting tired of hearing how the President-elect is not prepared to be Commander-in Chief of a superpower.  Obama wasn’t up to the task and 8 years later is still not prepared.  At least Trump is prepared to run the economy, something that Obama also had no experience doing, and it showed.  Trump will have advisors on foreign policy and he will have plenty of military experience backing him up.  I’m just guessing, but I don’t think he will make the kind of statements about what we will tolerate and then do nothing when they are ignored.

 

I think that this is the reason for the “Trump Rally,” a change in how we see ourselves going forward.  Economics don’t change overnight, but sentiment based on geopolitical shifts do cause change.  Today’s shooting of the Russian diplomat caused a 50 drop in the Dow, and while we didn’t rally and make a new high on the day, we also didn’t move any lower.  The shooting was followed by an attack on a shopping area in Germany, causing deaths and destruction and the market didn’t even give it a nod.  These are actions that last year would have caused major drops across the board.  In fact, if you recall, a fire in Malaysia on New Year’s eve having nothing to do with terror, just the pictures displayed on TV, caused a 400 point selloff.

 

We closed up across the board today, even if not impressively.  Internals were clearly favorable on both the NYSE and NASDAQ.  GOOGL +2, AMZN +9.92, NFLX + 1.48 but FB -.59.  Financials mixed with JPM +.49 and BAC -.18, and the XLF unch.  This is how the week before Xmas generally looks.

 

 

CAM

 

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After the close 12/15/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 16th

 

And the march to 20,000 just keeps on going !!  But the internals get just a little bit weaker.  Today the NYSE had A/D of only 4:3 and volume of 3:2 and the NASDAQ was 4:2 and 3:2 respectively.  We were higher early, again testing the 19,950 area before selling in tech brought us back to 19,832 and we went quiet closing + 59 @ 19,852.  We had similar action in the S&P500 and NASDAQ all closing up about .38%, while the Russell was the outlier at +10.39 or .77%.

 

GOOGL was -2.24, AMZN -7.1, NFLX + 1.78, AAPL +.71, TSLA  -1.21.  The biggest gainers as a group were the financials with JPM +1.39, BAC+.57 and the XLF +.20.  The biggest losers were the metals with the golds collapse of over $30 and the GLD (gold ETF) -1.49 or 1.37 and NUGT @ $5.93-.98 or 14%.  We sold the GDX calls against a profitable long position yesterday @ 1.33 and covered them this morning @ $ .40.  It feels to ma as if we are running out of gas, but clearly the bulls are in control.  I am keeping option positions light (we have NONE right now) as risk control, and I’ll be looking at lot of charts over the weekend to find some that may have already succumbed to tax-loss selling for a bounce in the new year...

 

 

 

CAM

 

   

 

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.

After the close 12/14/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 15TH

 

Today was a typical Fed day.  The markets started lower on the bond rally but couldn’t  really generate much momentum and by noon we were unchanged.  The initial reaction to the expected raise of .25% was a slight dip followed by a rally to new highs of the day and a quick pullback.  Really not much of anything.  Gold fell, bonds sold off and it was quiet until the press conference.  At that point we went from doing nothing to a selloff that took the markets lower across the board.  Between 2:00 and 3:00 we went from 1:1 volume on the NYSE to 8:1 down.  We sold off to be down 160 in the Dow before it dug in its heels and rallied back to – 50 before finally settling back at down 118 OR .60%. Again the Russell was the standout loser with a loss of 17.51 or 1.27%.

We took the opportunity early to close out all of our positions that had near expirations and took a minute profit in XLF, a better one in GSK, and a great one in the balance of our SJM position.  I took a shot on NUGT after it sold off from $8.60 to $7.70 and while it rallied, it didn’t hold and I took a minor loss ($125) using a stop at $7.49.  I also added to our RWM position near the close.  Our long TLT position had a dramatic selloff in the last 15 minutes of the day, but I will re-evaluate that when I see what happens overnight.  

The Trump meetings today didn’t have any overall effect on the big tech names.  GOOGL was +4.33, AMZN -4.13, TSLA +.56, FB-.03, and IBM +.45.

The real damage was in the Energy sector.  Oil was off all day but really got worse when it broke $52.18 (the low from the gap up on Monday) and accelerated further when it broke $51.  APC was -$2.07, in line with the XLE -1.63 or about the same 2%. XOM -1.40, MRO -.48 or 2.55%.

 

All in all, a market looking for a reason to take some profits.  Tomorrow’s another day !!

 

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 12/13/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 14th

 

Keeping it short tonight since had an eye exam late this afternoon and they are still dilated and I can’t really see the numbers to be accurate.  We came within 50 of Dow 20,000 this afternoon, but we did close at another new high @ 19,911+114.78.  All the other indexes were also at new highs except the Russell, which while up is still the laggard.

 

The big name tech was higher in anticipation of their meeting with the President-elect, AMZN +14.88, GOOGL+7.44, AAPL +2.00, TSLA +6, IBM +3.16 and FB+2.68.  The NYSE and NASDAQ internals are slipping a little with volume 2:1 and A/D 4:3 on both. On the financials, we started with GS, JPM, and BAC all higher at the open, followed by a sharp selloff and then back to mid-range where they all closed just slightly lower on the day.

 

So, in short, we continue to claw higher as if there is a magnet at 20,000 just pulling us higher.  Tomorrow, when we see what the Fed does, we will probably have a blow-off followed by a reversal.  The only question is which direction first and where is the close??

 

 

CAM

 

                         

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After the close 12/12/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 13TH

 

A mixed day with the Dow up a bit (.20%) on the back of JNJ, XOM, HD, and CVX while the banks, GS, BAC, and AXP and defense stocks LMT and others were lower on President elect Trump’s tweet about cost overruns.  NASDAQ and the S&P500 were slightly lower at down .59% and .11% while the Russell was the standout again down almost $15, or 1.1%.

 

We added a position in the TLT calls today in the belief that a rate rise later this week is already over anticipated in the market and that the US$ has “over” appreciated and can stand a little pullback.  I would have bought the Euro ETF (FXE) but it gapped up this morning and I didn’t get the chance.  These are two counter-trend trades that have very low risk since if either make new lows I will be a seller.

 

The GDX (gold miners) have also seemed to have held the lows and this is also a weaker US$ trade.  Our current position in ANW (long @ $10 on 11/17) closed @ $12.45 after touching a new recovery high of $13.10 today.  Recall that we bought this when the shippers became “all the rage” for a week or so while this one, who has disposed of all of its older ships and was selling for about 60% of book value is a service company for all types of ships afloat.  It makes money and I have an initial target of $15.50 or so.

 

Hope everyone’s enjoying the Holiday season.

 

CAM

 

   

 

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After the close 12/8/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 9TH

 

Another “melting higher” day for the market with the Russell the big gainer at 1,386.37 up 21.86 or 1.6%.  The rest of the indexes were higher but really paled in comparison with the Dow + only .33%, S&P500 +.22% and NASDAQ +.44%.  Some of these are running out of momentum and it really shouldn’t surprise anyone at these levels.  A/D and volume on the NYSE were only 1.6:1 today and the hill just keeps on getting steeper as we move higher.

 

On the earnings front we had a mish mash of results from last night’s LULU that took us up over $10 at the open and closed +9 or 15%, while RH after the close, had a beat but with poor guidance closed $39 and is now 32.25 -6.75.  ESRX was panned by Citron and fell from $76 to 68 before closing @ $70.75 - $5.10 or 6.72%.

 

We bought some XLF puts vs $23.60 and they closed a few cents lower, but this too has gone parabolic and had 3 gaps to the upside in the last 15 days.  I’m not looking for a collapse here but a move $1 lower gives us a triple.

 

We also had a late day rally in the Biotech stocks.  The LABU (3X levered S&P Bio bull) has come down from $50, 4 weeks ago to 33.60 today before rebounding to close @ $36.40, up on the day.  I’m not convinced yet but it can certainly bounce half way back from here.

 

Gold continues to be a favorite of mine here.  It is oversold, approaching major bottoms on the longer term charts and is at the bottom of its weekly Bollinger Bands.  On top of that, as it has fallen, the open interest has been dramatically reduced.  This means that the move has been “long liquidation,” and when the public gets out the pros take control and the market tends to turn.

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 12/7/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 8TH

 

Another strong day for the market and as discussed last night, a Dow Theory breakout with the Transports finally catching up to the Industrials after a two year lag.  The market started off a little slow but as soon as the Transports pushed through 9310 there was a “buy” program in the E-mini S&Ps of about $5 Billion that drove the market higher quickly.  There was also the strength in several stocks that issued good guidance and added fuel to the fire.  WDC was the standout in the S&P , gapping up and moving over $5 higher or over 8.3%, GOOGL +$15, AMZN +$5.40, BIG BLUE (IBM)+4.34 AND TSLA +6.82.  The only laggard was FB up an anemic $ .46.

 

Our positions in GSK, GDX, SJM and SCO all moved in our favor again today, but I am getting very wary of this parabolic rally in the market.  I am going to be a seller into it at some point shortly and will probably take on a short position in the XLF (financials) since I don’t believe that the Fed is going to be able to “normalize” rates.  The problem for the Fed is that the market has already done its work, so when we do get a rate rise next week, the move will be anti-climactic.  The real issue is that the banks cannot generate the kind of earnings that they did in the past.  They are simply not allowed to carry the amount of leverage, hence they can’t return to the levels seen prior to 2008.  Even if the new administration wants to unwind Dodd-Frank it will take time, and the results are questionable.  This sector has gotten ahead of itself and it will pay the price.

 

 

CAM

 

   

 

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After the close 12/6/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 7th

 

Today was another sharply unchanged day.  The range on the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P500 were all slight and the only index that made any real headway (a move of more than a fraction of a percent) was the Russell with a gain of $14.88 or 1.1%.  On the commodity side the gold had a short range inside day and went nowhere.  The market internals were both well positive with the NYSE showing 2:1 up volume and 2.5:1 stocks and NASDAQ the opposite with 2.5:1 volume and 2:1 stocks.  These are very healthy numbers and don’t show any signs of a blow-off.

 

AMZN +4 and NFLX +5.79 were the two best performing of the big names I watch with GOOGL -2 and AAPL + .82.  We bought some GSK today based on the technicals, with the stock at the low end of its range, on its lower Bollinger Band and deeply oversold.  It also doesn’t hurt that the stock pays 5.5%, and there is a bidding war in one of the other biggest pharma/bio names in Europe between JNJ and Sanofi.  We also took a few of the 1/38 calls.

 

I’d like to mention that we are getting a lot closer to a Dow Theory breakout, with the Industrials making new highs every day, and the Transports getting ever closer to their 12/4/2014 high of 9310.  The only problem is that while the one or the other finally does catch up, it is usually exhausted.  The best example is the 12/2014 period when within a week of both making a new high they both moved lower, the Transports by 500 points and the Industrials by 800, all within a week and a half.

 

 

 CAM

   

 

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After the close 12/5/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING December 6th 

 

Well, I was stuck on a plane so this is going to have to be a short note.  We got stopped out of the SPY 12/9 218.50 puts this morning on the 50% Down rule.  Very surprising, and disappointing.

 

We also bought the GDX in 2 separate lots on orders from last night’s letter.  We had an order for $21.15, executed on the open @ $20.99 and a limit @ $20.65 bought right there against the lows of the day of $20.63.  Our average is $20.82 and we rallied to close down just $ .04 @ $21.33.  I would have liked to see a little more weakness to buy the Jan 21 calls, but I’ll re-evaluate tomorrow.  The futures are down just $2.40 so no real downside pressure right now.

 

The oil was up right to my resistance from last night’s letter too. Didn’t get enough of a rally to buy the SCO 1/65 calls, but that’s another one I’ll have to take another look at tomorrow.

 

CAM

 

    

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After the close 12/1/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 2ND

 

Today was another split decision.  The Dow was higher by $68 while S&P500, NASDAQ and the Russell were all lower.  NASDAQ was the standout at -$72 or just under 1.4%.  That clearly doesn’t mean you should be hiding out in the Dow, since the internals were not great there either.  NYSE volume was 1:1, but the A/D was negative 9:5.  NASDAQ was dramatically worse with volume 3:1 down and A/D was 2:1.  As we talked about last night it was the same big name losers.  GOOG -10, AMZN -7, TSLA -7, and FB lost another $3.44.

 

The SPY puts we paid $ .77 for yesterday closed at a disappointing $1.11 after trading $1.43, even though we closed 80% down the range.  Our 100% Up Rule trigger is $1.54.

 

The oil has clearly been giving the signal that OPEC has made a deal.  I have just less than no faith that they won’t cheat, especially now that Russia is a bigger part of the world production.  The other commodity that deserves some attention is the gold.  It is important to separate the gold (GLD) from the miners(GDX).  While the actual gold is floundering around looking for a bottom, the GDX seems to be holding around its lows near $20.  It is also well supported on the weekly chart between $19.50-20 and is oversold and below its lower Bollinger Band. I’d try the actual ETF on any further weakness or January $21 calls @ 1.05.

 

 

CAM

 

 

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.

After the close 11/30/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 1ST

 

Today was a lot uglier that the market internals showed all day.  The Dow was up right from the get go with GS leading the way and BAC, JPM and the XLF following close behind.  It also didn’t hurt that oil was up on the news of a successful OPEC deal to cut production.  The high for the day for the current (Jan 2017 futures) contract was an astounding $49.90 up almost $5 or 10%.  It closed $49.14 up $3.90 or 8.6%.  I bought a beginning position in SCO (leveraged inverse oil ETF) @ $74.41 for a pullback.

 

Then came the late day selloff with the Dow closing up a meager $1.98 (Hi was +103) with the S&P500 down $5,85 and the biggest loser, NASDAQ lower by $56 or just over 1%.  It is clear by the action in GOOG -12, AMZN -11, and NFLX, up all day but closing $3 lower, are the weakest link today.  We got stopped out of our FB calls on our 50% down rule, but bought S&P500 puts mid-afternoon and that index closed at the low also.

 

The outlook for higher interest rates sent the Gold lower again as it broke below last week’s lows and seems to be headed for the next area of support between $1140-1150.  Beyond that level we could be looking at $1,125 or lower.  The only metal bucking the downtrend, and in a big way is Copper. Since closing under $2.10 in late October, the metal has been straight up to $2.75, pulled back to $2.45 and closed today $2.62.  Most think this is the sign of  increased economic activity and so is unfazed by higher interest rates.

 

The final internals did turn ugly and as noted above went from neutral to just even on the NYSE at 1:1 volume and 3:2 down stocks, but NASDAQ ended 2:1 down for both volume and stocks.  Big tech has become a “source of funds” for the next hot group in the markets rotation.

 

We’ll see again tomorrow..

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 11/29/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 30th

 

Another mixed day with a bit of good news (GDP revised up) and really not much else except speculation about the OPEC meeting.  And of course, Friday’s employment numbers.  So much to think about when all that really matters is that the world is awash in money and we are still the best house on a bad street.

 

We bought more FB calls today, but went for a bit more time and a strike $2 higher.  We paid $1.15 for the FB 12/124 calls.  The stock is oversold and sitting on its up-sloping 200 day moving average.

This chart shows the 5 day rate of change and shows that we are in a bottoming area that has launched moves from 60 to just under 100, 90 to 120 each time to new highs. Now we are starting at 115 and a new high would be over $133.50.  With our position in the $122 and $124 calls, I’d be satisfied with a gap-close @ $127.

 

UNH was the leader of the healthcare group +3.6% or $40 Dow points and HUM marched higher for a $45 move since the Trump victory.   Our old favorite SAM touched $180 today before backing off a bit and AMZN tried the upside before closing on its low down $5.  Tomorrow’s another day…

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 11/28/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 29th

 

WOW..STOP THE PRESSES..After on 15 days in a row the Russell 2000 was down today.  Everyone seems so amazed and even went so far as to say that we “might” be in for a pullback of some sort.  We’re ready, we have our SPXU, RWM and some very small option positions.  We have the second half of our SJM 12/130 calls with an entry price of $ .55, but sold the first half @ $1.10, so no money on the table.  The stock is defensive so I don’t really worry too much.

 

We have a small FB call position put on just this morning @ $1.03 on the little gap down and the stock is resting on its rising 200 day M.A., also not concerning.  As long as everyone is waiting for the pullback to be a buyer I’m happy to have a balanced set of positions.

 

Clearly today was a buy the rumor (for the last 3-4 months) that Xmas would be good, sell the news.  Several of the retailers were downgraded after a nice rally.  XRT down 1.22% but still up 12% from just 10 days ago.  With all the talk about deficits and rate increases you’d think the financials would feast on the yield curve, but No there too, as the XLF fell 1.16% as half a dozen banks were downgraded too.

 

Market internals weren’t great but they weren’t terrible either. NYSE A/D and Vol were both 2:1 down and the NASDAQ only a little worse @ 5:2 down.  The big surprise was AMZN with record sales was -$13 or 1.7%.  If you didn’t come into the day long GLD or the metals themselves you didn’t have a great day.

 

 CAM

 

    

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After the close 11/22/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 23rd

 

Well, this was the end of the week for me.  We lost the first half of the SJM 12/130 calls @ $1.10 on the 100% Up Rule.  The stock looks like it may have some legs from here.  The market continues to grind higher with continuing to stay positive, but only slightly.  NYSE volume was 3:2 and stocks 2:1, while NASDAQ was barely ahead at 7:6 and 4:3 respectively.  While these are not particularly strong, they also don’t represent anything like a blow-off.  While making new highs, there will always be days of rest in between.  None of the big names on the NASDAQ did much today.  FB is into resistance around 123 but is nowhere near overbought.  AMZN bounced off 705 and is 785 but also not overbought yet, even though strong resistance from 798-805.

 

One we traded last week, SIG, one that I still believe has a major problem in both finance and possible fraud, miss both top and bottom lines Monday but gave good guidance.  It opened up $10 at $99 and hit $101.36 before a collapse to 89.86 before a close just below 91.  You can make up any number of good “stories” about the return of mall shopping or the troubles that Tiffany will have because President-Elect Trump has screwed up the foot traffic, but anything positive about this one is “putting lipstick on a pig,”  in my opinion.

 

The thing to remember with the rotation of groups is that some of them rally hard and fast due to the buildup of shorts over time or dramatic oversold RSI stats.  You can’t always extrapolate a major move in any one stock or group just because it had a particularly sharp break on high volume.  If you need an example, just look at some of the “lower class” shippers like DRYS...Sometimes a quick trade is just a quick trade and what you got in the first 4 days is all there is.

Have a great Holiday and I’ll be back Sunday night for Weekly Strategies.

 

CAM

 

                          

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After the close 11/21/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 22nd

 

This is always a strange week; short, usually up and after tomorrow midday totally without any purpose.  One thing you can count on for sure is that you’ll hear all morning Friday is “and today is the lightest volume of the year.”  That is, of course, if you’re even listening !!  I for one won’t be, but that’s just me.

 

So, today I put on two trades that I think make sense no matter what the market does for the rest of the week.  SJM is oversold and resting on support and the market can go either way, and this one can rally.  It’s a defensive name and we bought the 12/130 calls on a limit order from last night’s Weekly Strategies at $ .55.  It can easily rally with the overall market like today when the Dow was up 88 and SJM closed on it high of the day @ $126.46+ 1.61.  The options closed $ .80.  The other position was long RWM (reverse Russell2000 ETF) on the chance that there is some evening up for the holiday weekend after just 12 down days in a row.  We bought the open @ $50.60 and after the big rally it closed $50.51, so I’m not really concerned.  On the other hand, if we do sell off a little this can rally to 53-54 pretty quickly.

 

FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX and GOOG all rallied after underperforming the last 2 weeks while the financials and precious metals all gained.

 

I’ll be back tomorrow again for a quick note, but if you’re smart and are cutting out early, Have a great Thanksgiving…..

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 11/17/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 18th

 

Today was pretty interesting if only to watch the blow-off of the low-class shippers and the stability of the one you should feel free to own.  Last night I explained how many of them had been reverse split, some several times, and how thin they tended to become.  Every time you reverse a stock the float and the outstanding are diminished pretty dramatically.  DRYS was 1:1400, and was the one that moved the most, going from the split adjusted $3.84 up to a high of $102 on Tuesday.  Wednesday it traded as high as around $113 but the SEC stepped in @ 9:27 and didn’t allow it to open for normal trading citing “questions for the company.”  When it did open today it had a brief stay in the $50 area before closing at $12.00-$61.

 

SBLK, which we own, was split 1:5 once, and has been consolidating for a year, has spun off all its old ships and is one of the strongest in the group.  It has moved from a recent low of $4 to a recent high of $5.93 and closed the day $5.36.  No problem.  The other name mentioned here Tuesday, Wednesday and again tonight is ANW.  Was up today with the shippers, but only because it reported great earnings and while not a shipper itself, it services ships at sea.  Even with today’s move to $10.75+1.65 it still has a PE just over 7X and is only selling @ 85% of its Book Value.  We bought the stock @ $10 this morning because the options have no liquidity and are dramatically overpriced.

 

We still own the XLF 11/22.50 puts but will be out of them tomorrow.  We are back into the congestion at the highs of the S&P500 and the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) is still performing poorly.  I’m looking for a bit more consolidation in the GLD and SLV before I take a shot with the AGQ (Silver ETF leveraged).  We are also still long UCO in the oil “no-mans-land.”

CAM

   

 

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After the close 11/16/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 17th

 

Well, seems we did the right thing to lighten up a little yesterday on the LMT -$5.50 from our sale yesterday and SAM also over $5 lower, and the 50% down rule took us out of the SPY puts @ $.49, now $ .18.  For a day that really didn’t have much of a range, there was both some real damage and some serious gains.

 

The standout group for the last several days in a very quiet way were the shippers.  They were all moving quietly until DRYS got crazy in the last 4 sessions and the SEC stepped in and halted it !!  I thought that that might be the end of the run but it actually pushed some of them even further.  DCIX, Diana Containerships was up 154% Tues and started the day up another 35% @ $8.46.  It closed @ $12.86+6.72 (109%) after trading $26.  I know this looks CRAZY, but these stocks, as a group have been reverse split and DCIX looks more like an all-time high $115 ($14.375) today’s high $26 ($3.25) close $12.86 ($1.60).  Not really so crazy for an industry that has be destroyed.  The Baltic Dry Index “BDI” was as high as $10,000 /DWT (dry weight ton) in 2008, $4500 in 2008, and as low as $290 in the last 52 weeks and is now $1145.  I’m not calling for a straight up move here, but if the world’s economies are picking up to 25% of prior growth, being selective in this group will pay off.  I’m already long SBLK and just last night I mentioned ANW @ $8.75 as a company that services large ships of all kinds at sea including cruise ships.  Reported today and beat by a measly 46%, sells now @ 5X earnings and is still only 71% of book.  One other advantage here is that most also have big short- interest.  DRYS in particular, and its reverse was 1:1400.

 

On the downside were some of the drugs and biotech stocks and as the above mentioned LMT and BA. The rest of the markets were split.with not much to say about the internals.  NYSE stocks almost 2:1 down but stock 15:14 up, and NASDAQ 11:9 up and 15:13 both up.  All this with little changed, inside days.

 

We remain short the XLF with the 11/22.50 puts.

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 11/15/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 16th

 

Well, the 50% Down rule took us out of the SPY 11/216 puts @ $ .49 this morning.  Not much of a loss since it was a small position.  However, I stayed with the XLF (Financial ETF) 11/22.50 puts @ $ .50 and I sold short some DECK.  A look at this chart shows that this one has been all over the place during the past several years.  If I wanted to use a stock to give an example of a picture perfect point and figure chart this would be the one.  Right now it is within $1 of a classic “spread triple top” so risk is well defined, and it is wedged up under a downtrend line.  If it starts to pull back support comes in @ $55-56, but the bottom that started this run is back at $51.  Being short @ $60.90 limits the risk/reward to between 5:1 and 9:1 in our favor.

 

We also took nice profits in SAM 2 lots ($18/share) and LMT ($35/share).  Just taking a bit off the table.  Our position in AMBA is winking back to life and has recovered $4 in the last 2 days, and though I hate to be a buyer of stocks about to report earnings, I’m keeping an eye on ANW, a servicer of oceangoing vessels from bulk shippers to cruise ships at sea.

 

I’m keeping a close eye on our 2X levered Oil ETF, UCO.  Today’s $2.50 move in the oil pushed it up $ .79 or just over 9%.  Tomorrow’s another day..

 

CAM

 

                     

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.

After the close 11/14/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 15th

Well, I’m back on the dark side.  Trees don’t grow to the sky and just like 9 down day in a row for the S&P500, no one flips a switch and takes us from an overnight low of 2028 to 2180 (7.5%) without some meaningful pullback, even if only 20 or 25% of the move back to the 2135-2140 area.  The 10 year treasuries are up a staggering 45-50% in yield, a move that in the past would have previously taken a year or more in the last week and a half, mostly the last 5 days.  We didn’t sign an armistice that ended a World War or averted a Cuban Missile Crisis.  We had an election.  And the guy who unexpectedly won hasn’t even gotten into office yet to do anything!!  And most people think he’s not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

 

The financials, BAC, JPM, C, WFC (didn’t they just have some sort of issue about figuratively screwing their own customers) AIG and all the other have made moves in the neighborhood of 20%.

 

So I just couldn’t help myself from buying a few SPY 11/216 puts and a couple of XLF 11/22.50 puts to see if we’d get a selloff during the rest of the week.  I think the odds are in our favor.  I also went for a little balance by buying some SPXU (2X Inverse SPX).  What I haven’t done yet is sell any SAM $175.30+1.85 or the LMT $268.49+9.32.  I may have to buy back some of the HL we sold @$6.34 if it goes any lower.

All in all we’re up a pretty respectable 95% YTD..

 

CAM

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After the close 11/10/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 11th

 

Well, I hate to be boring and talk about the same stocks again for the second day in a row, but the positions we hold just keep marching along.  Boston Brewing (154 average) was another $4.20 higher @ $168.35, LMT was $257.27 +3.81, and a stock that we hated all the way down from the mid $130s to $70, that we sold half of our $ .95 SIG 11/85 calls yesterday @ $2.67, closed today $5.01+$2.34.  We had an order in to sell them @ $6.50, and I’ll decide tomorrow if that goes back in.  On the other hand, our SPY puts will undoubtedly expire worthless tomorrow for a loss of $242.  Still, our YTD gains will still be well over 86%.

 

The Dow closed at a new all-time high today but the 4 “Horsemen” of the NASDAQ were brutally ugly.  FB closed $120 after being as low as 115.27 and is down from $133 10 days ago.  AAPL was down $3.24 to $107.64 and down from $116 in the same time frame.  NFLX @ $115 was lower by 7.19 and has broken back into the gap it left on that great earnings gap 2 weeks ago, and GOOG (or Alphabet) was off only 2.9% or $22.75 @ $762.56 over 50 off its recent high.  Growth doesn’t stand out quite so much when it looks like there will be plenty more around due to lower taxes, less regulation and the ability to bring overseas funds back home.

 

We are obviously getting overbought here, but just a quick glance at the yields on treasuries shows that the move out of treasuries back into stock that everyone has been looking for the past 8 years might actually be here.  Certainly the financials have been well sought after with the steepening yield curve…

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 11/9/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 10th

 

Well, I had the right idea buying a really minor position in the 11/11 SPY 210 puts right before the close yesterday for just $1.21.  At the close 8 minutes later they closed $1.55 and things we looking good.  When I fell asleep the S&P500 futures we down a scant $97 and the puts were just $4.00 in the money with 3 trading days until expiration.  It just goes to show you that you can read a chart, make the play, be right, and still end up on the short end of the stick.  As you might have heard, the Dow, after being “limit down” about 800, opened basically unchanged and rallied all day to close up $257.  My puts never even traded unchanged and finished the day @ $ .10.  Doesn’t hurt so badly when you only buy 2, and you also own SIG 11/85 calls @ $ .95 and they don’t trigger your 100% Up rule until they gap up from $1.52 to $2.67 and you book a gain of $344 and still own 2 with no cost and closed @ $2.70 bid-$3.10 asked.

 

We also still own LMT @ $233.20, closed $256+16.81, SAM Boston Brewing  (2 positions154 avg) $164.15 and the only strictly American brewer.

 

The Trump victory proves many interesting points, but the one that sticks out the most to me is that the ”media”  and the pollsters and those who are supposedly “in the know” can be just as wrong and anyone else.  Trump, and his organization heard the message of the American public a lot more clearly than all the experts combined.  He and his minions now have a very big job to do.  They are in control and they have 2 years to prove themselves.  The last 8 years have not only disadvantaged the middle class but has also destroyed the ability of the elderly to survive on their lifetime of savings and

almost non-interest bearing low-risk financial instruments. It is not a coincidence that the rise is elderly scamming has increased.

 

So, we still have a little value and 2 days for a pullback in the SPY puts.  As last night shows, stranger things have happened.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the Election 11/8/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 9th

 

I was hoping for a strong up open so that I could sell the extended rally for a little pullback towards the gap it left Monday morning.  Instead we got a sloppy open and it took a bit over an hour to get its footing and grind higher for most of the day.  The internals started out negative and at 10:00AM the NYSE was 2:1 down volume and 5:8 down stocks.  At the close they were 5:4 up vol. and 4:3 stocks. On NASDAQ the numbers were similar finishing at 10:7 and 5;3 respectively.

 

However, we were right back into the resistance levels on the S&P500 around the 2145-2150 level.  Right before the end of the day I decided that there were just too many things that could go wrong with the election so I texted an order to buy a ¼ size position in some short term SPY puts.  We bought 4 11/11 210 puts in our large ($100,000 per unit) account and 2 in our options only account with the stipulation that this was a binary trade, one that is exempt from both the 100% Up rule and 50% Down rule.  I will use the texting service to put out orders to sell these, or let them expire.  The position size is really small, and while an upset win by Trump is a low probability / high impact trade.

 

As I sit here writing this, the overnight futures are dramatically lower with the S&P500 down roughly $95 and the Dow is lower by $685.  If this were to hold here the SPY puts would open roughly $4 in the money.

 

 

CAM

 

   

 

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After the close 11/7/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 8th

 

 

So, the move away from the SPXU and the SPY puts on Thursday and the move into the SIG 11/85 calls and then the SPY 11/9/212 calls seems to have worked out pretty well this morning.

 

Anyone who has followed me for any period of time knows I am always selling too soon, and today was no exception.  We paid $1.24 for the SPY calls and rather than have the patience to wait for the 100% Up Rule to be triggered @ $2.48, I put out a text to sell half of them and we only got $2.39 for the whole lot.  It was a bit of a disappointment since they rallied higher to close at $3.16.  As Bernard Baruch said ”I made most of my money selling too soon.”  Still pains me to leave it on the table.  We also came within $ .01 of the 100% Up rule trigger on SIG calls @ $1.89 and they closed $1.55 + .05.

 

As I said in the Weekly Strategies last night, the market internals are have had no real destructive nature that a 9 day decline would suggest.  The damage was only 2.58% in total, and the S&P500 made up 2.22% of that today.  The market was strong right out of the gate and at the end of the day, advance / declines and volume were nowhere near “blow-off” levels.  NYSE volume was still 10:1 but stocks were a tame 4:1, NASDAQ

Volume was 6:1 but stocks were also only 4:1.  While we are still election driven, and no matter what happens I wouldn’t expect either of these two to go quietly.

 

The star of after the close earnings tonight is PCLN, who beat expectations and even though they warned that their investment in Open Table is developing more slowly than projected is trading at $1,555 +130.72 or 9.18%.  Right before the close we also bought UCO, the 2X leveraged Oil ETF.  We are oversold and down almost 25% in the last 8 days.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 11/3/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 4th

 

I was again surprised today to see the lack of bounce in stocks and adding an 8th down day across the board.  The problems started with the earnings and guidance in FB.  If you recall, a couple of weeks ago they made an announcement that they had overstated the success in advertising revenues and earnings and Sheryl Sandberg came on CNBC and told us all not to worry.  Seems she just might  have been understating the problem since today’s gap down open, and follow-thru to off over 7% was based on Mr. Zuckerberg’s comments on the earning conference call on this subject.  I have personally long been critical of FB since they force you to go to the site with daily (or even multiple) emails telling you “you might have missed something since your last visit,” or “you have new notifications pending,” and then count the visit they enticed.

 

Someone made mention today that they believe that the problem with the market is not based on oil or the election but rather the lack of leadership.  Just take a look at HUM or ISRG, or the IHI (healthcare ETF) or the IBB (Biotech ETF or any of the drug stocks like BMY or PFE or AMGN.  The leaders have been the tech, but even they are falling out of favor, so from where is the leadership supposed to come?  It’s almost like our geniuses in Washington have figured out that Drug companies might be their next ATMs after the banks, I guess they don’t understand that as they drain the cash they also drain the ability of these really great companies from spending more on R&D so they can hire more lawyers.

 

Earnings tonight are mixed.  GPRO missed and is halted but their biggest supplier AMBR is down 5.5% after a 7.5% loss yesterday.  CBS beat and was higher but is slipping a bit, SBUX was also a beat and was $3 higher but is now

$ .48 lower.  These are not great results.  As I have constantly reminded readers, beating lowered expectations is no great feat !

 

CAM

 

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After the close 11/2/2016

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 3rd

 

I was a little surprised today to see the lack of bounce in stocks after what looked like an early test of yesterday’s lows and a decent consolidation, but then came the monumental oil news.  When you’re expecting a small drawdown and you get the biggest build in history, you just can’t get too excited about market strength and economic demand.  We had a slightly profitable position in the SCO (3X inverse Oil ETF) that I sold thinking that the oils was oversold enough for a bounce and left a little on the table (actually less than $1 from the close).

 

The new long in SIG held up and although there is a small loss, it is sitting right on the lower Bollinger Band.  I also sold off half of a long term position in HL, Hecla Mining that we’ve traded the calls for monster profits during the spring, and the stock cost $3.95 last May.  Silver has outperformed gold on a percentage basis and I feel it is susceptible to overhead resistance after its almost 15% four day gain.  We still own half and with a 57% gain I’m happy to watch it for a while.  

 

Since politics seems to be the driving factor I will just remind everyone about how the coal and oil stocks rallied in the last week or 10 days when the media started talking up Mitt Romney.  He did no better that the polls showed the prior 2 or 3 weeks before that, but everyone was “smoking the hopium.”  I’m not suggesting that Trump doesn’t have some momentum, but it is still a dramatic uphill battle for him, and talk (and polls) are cheap.  For that reason I’m keeping positions light and tightly reined in, but don’t be surprised if I switch to the long side for the inevitable bounce, or see us hit a brick wall around 2145-50 in the S&P500 and re-establish shorts.  I’m not hedging, just flexible.

 

CAM

    

 

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After the close Tuesday 11/1

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 2ND

 

Today was the day that I’ve been waiting for and writing about for the last several weeks.  It’s not that we didn’t have some great trades on the last SPY break on 10/10, but the last couple of days we have had the kind of fits and starts that build up to the kind of break we had today.

 

I sold half of our position in the SPY 11/4 212 puts @ $2.58 on our 100% Up rule and I also sold off some SPXU near the highs via text for good measure. There is some support from 2100 all the way down to 2080.  I also used our texting service to take a new position in SIG this morning.  While this market is still perplexing, when you sell resistance or buy support as I do, by the time you get the break, you are already well in the money.  At this point the balance of the SPY puts cost nothing and closed @ $1.77.  I won’t squander the gain, but playing with the house’s money gives us a bit more leeway in letting the rest of the trade unfold.  The market internals were not excessive with both the NYSE and NASDAQ numbers for both stocks and volume were in the 2.5:1 negative in both places.

Have a good evening.

 

CAM

 

   

 

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After the close Monday 10/31

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 1ST

 

Another day, another failure of the market (S&P500) to make any headway into the overhead resistance just above the market’s current levels.  Today was a very short-range day “inside day” which is usually associated with meaningless action.

I really couldn’t tell much since I was actually out of the office but every time I looked I had to call a friend and ask, “Are things really this quiet with the oil down $1.00, or $1.50, or at the close almost  $2.00?”  Usually this is devastating, but the only real oil related actions I noticed were our position in the SCO (3X leveraged inverse oil ETF +$7.00) and the DJ-20 (Transports +$40 or .39%).

 

The volume was still light, and the internals were so close that they aren’t even worth mentioning, but since you all pay me so handsomely, I’ll tell you, NYSE vol. were barely 1.2:1 positive and stocks were 1.1:1 also positive.  The NASDAQ vol. was 847:815 up and stocks were 1391:1428 down.  Again…not what you’d call decisive.

 

Maybe tomorrow, which starts the best 5 or 6 months of the year (depending on who you ask) will be better.

 

CAM

 

   

 

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After the close Friday 10/28

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

AFTER THE CLOSE 10/28

 

I generally don’t write on Friday’s since my weekly letter comes out Sunday night with my thoughts for the past week and what I expect  for the coming week, but today’s action requires some comment.  The S&P soft opening followed by a quiet grinding higher looked to be an “evening up” for the end of a week that really didn’t amount to much.

 

The Dow was basically unchanged for the 3rd week in a row, the S&P  down a bit but still bound by not last week but the prior week’s range, and the only standout was the Russell which was horrible at down almost 2.5% and 95% down its range.

 

I guess that the point here is that the market is dramatically over anxious.  The S&P500 was trading around the high of the day @ 2140 when today’s news on the FBI’s new email news hit and in 3 5 minute bars fell to 2126.  It stabilized for a bit and then sold off further to a new low on the day @ 2119, an almost 1% decline in less than an hour with really no clarification of what the actual new might entail.  And in the next hour back to unchanged only to finish slightly lower (-6.63 or .31%).  No wonder the A.A.I.I. neutral sentiment number remains 35% over its historic average.

 

We rolled out of our SPY puts, some this morning on the decline and some this afternoon to roll forward in time and lower in strike price.  We took nice gains (actual numbers available at www.greatwizeoz.com for members. To me, it still looks like a Bear Flag.

 

Have a great weekend all !!

CAM

   

 

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After the close 10/27/2016

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 28TH

 

Today was another failed rally try that gave another reason to consider the current chart of the markets the label “Bear Flag.”  We have yet to be able to make any real headway into the overhead resistance that was the leftover support from the march higher from the Brexit low in late June through the double top in August, the lower highs in September and Monday’s high near 2155 (S&P500).  We closed $14 from the high and $1 from the low of the day.  What is more disturbing to me is that on the fundamental (not a word you generally hear in this space) side, the US$ strength being generated by the selling in treasuries (higher rates=stronger US$) was supposed to be a problem for the large cap multinationals.  So why is the weakest index the Russell?  It’s a small cap index that is made up of exactly the group that should be in favor.  The group has been the weak sister for a while now and unless there is a stunning one day reversal tomorrow or Friday it’s going to be a very ugly weekly chart.  While the S&P is down a meager $7 (.03%) IWN, the ETF proxy for the Russell is down $1.48 to $101.42 or 1.39%.

 

The internals were again nothing exceptional. NYSE were negative with volume 1.5:1 and stocks were 2.5:1.  The NASDAQ was slightly worse at 2.5:1 volume and stocks were 2:1.

 

Tomorrow should be interesting.  AMZN is down $50 on earnings, MCK down 18 to 140 and GOOGL up $6 all on earning after the close.  One that a subscriber brought to my attention that has already taken a beating and has been cut in half in the last 18 months

that may be digging its heels in here after an earnings led decline is CMG.  If it continues to hold the last 2 days lows near $362 a trade in a small number of the 12/170 calls into single digits on any market selloff might make some sense. I will text if I see it develop.

CAM

  

 

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After the close 10/26/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 27th

 

Yet another truly unimpressive and boring day where we tried the downside at the open then oil turned higher and dragged the Dow higher.  It rallied from the low @ $48.87 all the way to the high of $50.10 and then fell all the way back to $49, and closed $49.24. It couldn’t turn the NASDAQ or the S&P500 positive, but we had a rally of 150 Dow points followed by another selloff and rally into the close with only the Dow in the green.

 

Earnings continued mixed again with CMG a pretty major disappointment closing down $37.65 or 9.28%.  They liked KO initially but it finished -.10, Northrup Grumman (NOC) followed our LMT and was $228.05+8.52 leaving a $4.00 gap, while BA followed the rest of the defense earnings and break of $6.52 to $145.54.  All these names are a bit overbought but seem like excellent buys on any meaningful pullbacks.

 

We also added another SPY put position in the SPY 11/2 $214 puts @ $1.18 yesterday and sold half @ $1.85 today.  I’d like to hold the balance and add some of the following weeks if we rally without going through the 2160 area on the S&P500 cash.  Maybe the 11/9 $215 or 216s, but I will use either the Weekly Strategies Letter or my texting service for the exact timing and pricing…

 

The Gold /Silver are still somewhat undecided for me.  The US$ strength seems to come and go and sometimes it effects the oil and gold and sometimes not.  It makes looking for a directional trade all the more difficult to enter with limited risk.  As anyone who has followed me or traded with me knows, I don’t trade breakouts in either direction, so I’ll just have to wait a little longer…

CAM

                             

 

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After the close 10/25/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 26TH

 

 

Tuesday was filled with disappointing earnings with few exceptions.  Under Armour (UA) beat earnings and revs but had downbeat projections going forward and the stock gapped down over 13% at the open.  HD closed near $128, opened 126.27 and traded down to close $123.34-4.44 or 3.47%.  Last but not least, MMM traded near $174 yesterday opened $169.28 and fell to the $165.11 and closed $166.23-$5.04 or just under 3%. This is not a confident market.  There were some exceptions, like LMT (we own it @$233) which opened @ 239.40 and then traded up and closed right near its high @ $249+16.84 or 7.5%.  Defense in a dangerous world is generally a good play, but they also blew away earnings, revenues and projections.   Apple had their earnings after the close and depending upon who you listen to, they were somewhere between disappointing and great.  It had closed at $118.25 and has traded up to $121.84 and 115.02.  The issue is really that the stock has just had a run from $102 to $118 since the release of the IPhone 7 and the Samsung 7 debacle.  It’s really hard to WOW the street after that kind of move.

 

The internals were no better.  On the NYSE stocks we 1.5:1 down and vol was 2:1 down. On the NYSE both were 1:5:1 down, so not particularly a decisive day.  The futures tonight are pretty much lower with the S&P down 5, Oil - $ .60 and gold up $2.00

 

We also added the SPY 11/2 214 puts @ $1.18 so funds in use are only $472

 

CAM

                       

  

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After the close 10/24/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 25TH

 

Today was another boring day with most of the activity around the Merger Monday action and earnings reports.  The biggest news (and the biggest disappointment) was the AT&T / TWX deal speculated on Thursday and Friday and confirmed over the weekend.  The disappointment was that although the pricing looked rich @ between $105.50-$110, it was stock and cash, and the closing looks like the end of 2017, if possible.  So the stock portion looks a little “squishy” a Wall St. term for anything that goes from almost $39 to under $37. TWX was actually -$2.74 to $87.74.  BEAV and COL looked a lot  more straight forward got a cheerier welcome with the acquired (BEAV) up $8.28 or over 16% .

 

The S&P500 was up over $13 at the open and closed up $10.17.  For anyone who saw the chart in my Sunday night letter it puts the index right into the teeth of resistance between the high of the break on 10/11 of  2161 and a clear breakout of the high of 2169.60 on 10/10.

 

The volume was still light, and the internals were only soso.  NYSE stocks were only 3:2 and volume was barely ahead @ 4.5:3.5.  clearly not breakaway numbers.  On the other hand, the NASDAQ moved to a new ALLTIME high but its numbers were barely better with volume roughly 2:1 and stocks also 3:2.  It was all GOOG, AMZN, FB, AAPL (reports tomorrow).  All the growth names.  If these ever disappoint you better not sleep late that day…

 

CAM

                                   

 

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After the close 10/20/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 21st

 

Yet another truly unimpressive and boring day where we tried the upside at the open then the downside and kept it up all day to finally close about  ¾ down the range on no real volume and mixed internals.  Advance / declines were 3:4 while volume was just positive by not enough to even print.

 

Earnings continued mixed with MSFT loved and up almost $3 after the close and SAM with a miss just $3 lower @ $153.  AMD followed the INTC  lead from yesterday and started down hard, rallied and then fell back to close about $ .50 lower @ $6.56.  You just can’t count on the market reaction to most of these names both big and small once the analysts put out their “whisper” numbers.  Obviously good sometimes isn’t good enough and bad wasn’t as bad as expected.

 

We are maintaining our positions in SPY puts that we rolled out a week.  The oil still looks questionable up here and if it cracks I think the market can get ugly fast.  The OVERWHELMING  pattern in the index charts remains the “bear flag” as I’ve stated for weeks.  Until it breaks down, or I’m wrong and it is negated by a close over 2169.60 in the S&P500, the short side is preferred.

 

The gold is trying to work off the massive decline and I am almost ready to jump back on the long side in either it, or the silver shortly.  The only thing that is standing in my way is the fact that if the BP continues to weaken about the US$, and interest rate move higher we won’t see that rally.  Also, last night’s chart of the Gold shows massive liquidation and until that flattens out a bit I am skeptical.

.

 

CAM

 

 

   

 

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After the close 10/19/2016

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 20TH

 

Today was yet another day that we spent all morning grinding higher only to close 2/3 down on the range, however, the internals were stronger than the averages looked.  The advance / declines and the volume both had more than respectable days with stocks finishing at 7:3 and volume 3:1 up.

 

I added some SPY 10/28 213 puts after the rally began at $1.03 down over $ .40 on the day and they closed @ $1.07.  At the absolute lows, they traded $ .90 and the Dow was making highs around +90, so I’m pretty comfortable with an up open tomorrow.  I also only bought a half position so we have room to add if we like the action.

 

Intel (INTC) beat top and bottom line for the quarter and gave weak guidance and paid the price moving lower by almost 6%.  Of course, the stock has had a great year moving from a low of $27 to a recent high of over $38.

 

As I mentioned on Monday, I believe that the gold and silver are putting in a bottom in this area.  The chart below shows us a commodity under massive liquidation, oversold and at the bottom of its Bollinger Band and at an area of support.  I am looking for a buy point and will text or include it in my Weekly Strategies.

 

 

CAM

                           

 

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After the close 10/18/2016

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 19th

 

 

Tuesday was strong from the start with the carryover of the phenomenal NFLX earnings sending that name up as much as 20% and ending up a meager 19.03%.  The cash flow numbers weren’t great but the growth in subscribers was what everyone was watching and both here and worldwide gains were well above expectations.  Harley (HOG) also performed well after layoff helped temper a disappointment for the quarter and it was up over 9%.  IBM beat both top and bottom and although it was up initially after the close yesterday it gapped down about 5, faded another 2.25 and then rallied to close near the high of the day @ $150.72-4.05.  JNJ was also a disappointment -$3.08.  This is clearly a market that rewards growth over financially engineered bottom line gains.

 

This is a theme I’ve trumpeted for the last 4 years and fortunately I haven’t let it color my trading, because the age-old adage “the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent,” is clearly at work here.  What I am seeing here is a market that to me seems to be rolling over for now.  We have new highs after Brexit and the early Sept. break, followed by lower highs and a bear flag.  If we cannot break and close above 2,169.60, we will test the 200 day moving average @ 2,065, and frankly this would be a normal and expectable pullback for a market that has rallied off a double bottom earlier this year @1810.Even with today’s strong internals we didn’t even get close.  We got stopped out of our SPY 10/212 put position and I’ll look for another put position on any rallies.

CAM

 

 

       

 

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After the close 10/17/2016

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 18TH

 

The day could have been a bit more boring but I’m not sure how.  By noon, the advance/ declines were still stuck at dead even 1418 each and the volume was 124/125.  It got slightly worse from there and ended the day at 1.5:1 stocks down and the volume about the same.  They saved the fireworks until after the close with a monster earnings beats by NFLX sending the stock up 19%, IBM with somewhat of a beat, up over $157, now back down around $151-$3, and the news that Visa’s CEO is leaving unexpectedly taking its stock down 2%.  While BAC beat this morning, it wasn’t enough to move the beleaguered group from another unimpressive day.

 

CNBC’s lunchtime show celebrated its 5th anniversary with some stellar guests today, as they will all week.  Today was David Tepper, Carl Icahn and Jeffrey Gundlach.  These three are always worth listening to and the overall theme was concern.  They all like cash better than stocks or bonds though they won’t call either a bubble and are all defensive.

 

We are maintaining our positions in SPY puts and AMBA calls as well as longs in LMT and SAM.  I still feel like oil is in a trading range with $52 the highs and $42 the low so I am also maintaining my position in SCO, the 3X leveraged inverse oil ETF.

 

The gold is trying to work off the massive decline and I am almost ready to jump back on the long side in either it, or the silver shortly.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 10/13/2016 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 14th

 

The market got off to a roaring start to the downside after the poor reports overnight from China.  Since I didn’t get the opportunity to put on the short position at the price I wanted I cut the position size by half and said I’d add on a rally or if I saw the break I wanted.  Unfortunately neither of those things occurred and we simply sold half on the 100% Up rule @ $1.62 and the balance @ $2.00. It turned out to be a decent call since we reversed and spent the rest of the day climbing back to almost unchanged and the puts closed $1.02. The S&P500 closed 6 off the high and 18 from the morning’s low.

As I also mentioned last night Boston Brewing (SAM) looked great and we have a position with an average price of $154.  It was down to $160.10 this morning and rallied back to $164.60 and closed up $ .38 on the day. I continue to think this one has more to go and an “inside day just shows me it is consolidating its substantial gains.

 

The Stumpf news did nothing for WFC except make the talking heads ask “didn’t his President (now elevated to CEO) know about this too?”  No joy in Wellsville tonight…

 

We also added both a common and option position in AMBA.  A hot stock that has been down not on its own issues but rather the back of GoPro’s problems. A roughly 20% decline in the last 10 trading days making it wildly oversold and breaking it below the lower Bollinger Band (2 standard deviations in price) and having a one-day reversal.  I expect to see this one rally $5-7 from our purchase price of $63.78 and the 10/65 calls at $1.10..

CAM

 

                                 

 

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After the close 10/12/2016

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 13th

 

The market got off to a quiet start and hung around slightly lower to slightly higher for the first hour or so until it slowly slid back test unchanged.  It barely moved and edged higher until the Fed minutes were released and had a brief and unimpressive rally to the new highs of the day around 2145 S&P500.  It didn’t last for long and although I was looking for another $5 in the S&P, I texted the buy for the SPY 10/19 212 puts and paid $ .81 for a half position.  The market sold off and the SPY closed $213.71+.28 but as of this writing is trading (5:11pm) $213.23 about .49 lower.  We’ll have to wait until tomorrow to decide is I add the second half on a rally, or if it breaks lower.

 

As I also mentioned last night Boston Brewing (SAM) looked great and we have a position with an average price of $154.  It was up from the start today and closed $162.80+4.58.  We have some pretty meaningful resistance from here to 168-170, but if we get a minor pullback or a sideways consolidation here I don’t see any reason to alter my objective from $180-200 on a management move to take it private or someone else to buy it.  This is an industry that has gone through one of the most extensive consolidations of any I’ve ever seen.

 

The Stumpf news this evening may take a bit of heat off Wells Fargo, but I still don’t see any reason to flock to this name in particular.  Bank of America (BAC) and J.P. Morgan (JPM) are still my favored financials.  Any selloffs in these names on their shortly upcoming earnings reports would make me a buyer.  If you want to spread the risk there is always the XLF for the group.

CAM

                              

 

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After the close 10/11/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 12TH

 

My trade in the SPY puts worked out better than I expected and a bit faster too.

The market started down and continued to get worse all day until around 2:00 when the volume went negative about 12:1 and stocks were 8:1.  They then came back in a bit to close $80 off the low in the Dow and $8 off the low in the S&P 500.  These are not great rallies, but the lows do correspond to the bottom Bollinger Bands on both.  The real support on the S&P are the 2119/2120 areas from the bottoms early September.

 

We are also long some Boston Beer (SAM) with an average of $154.  This is a company with only about 9,000,000 “A” shares in the float and a new additional buyback fund of $160,000,000.  At the current level of $158, that means they could buy a bit over 1 million more shares at this level, or about 11%.  SAM has bought back over 4 million shares already and the obvious take on this is that they are taking it private.  This was a company that went public initially by putting coupons in their six-packs and other size packages that allowed their faithful consumers to buy into the deal.

 

The other group that looks interesting to me would be financials.  If we are indeed going into a rising interest rate environment then the yield curve will help steepen and banking will have better margins and actually generate some profits.  The easiest way to play this is probably the XLF.  If you want an individual name I’d say Bank of America (BAC) on any pullback is probably the one to go with….

 

 

 

 

CAM

 

                               

 

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After the close 10/10/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 11TH

 

We started strong and got stronger yet right up until we ran into resistance around the 2165-2170 area I mentioned in the Weekly Strategies yesterday.  I would have liked to see the market just a little bit higher before taking a position in the SPY puts but just didn’t think we’d get there.  It’s a very short-term play with not a lot of money involved, and it wasn’t exactly what I’d call a weak day, but with the Oil racing ahead and the Gold showing some strength along with the UD$, I took a shot.  Again, not a weak day, with NYSE internals 2.5:1 positive stocks and volume but we start earnings tomorrow (as well as Yom Kippur) and I would not be surprised by a low volume downdraft.

 

In any event, we don’t have much at risk in the trade and I intend to be on top of it without giving it much room to go bad.  During the day the puts did move from $ .45 up to just over $ .60. I was hoping for a close of up under $70 on the Dow and lower end of the range on the SPY instead of midrange on both, but tomorrow is another day…

 

 

 

 

CAM

 

 

 

   

 

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After the close 10/6/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 7th

 

 

Thursday was down from the start with the low of down 118 in the Dow was made about 11:15 and the rally back to the highs of the day occurred over the next hour.  From that point on we went dead and the only index actually going positive at the close was the S&P500 and only by $1.04.  Market internals were 1.3:1 negative on NYSE and 1.6:1 negative on NASDAQ.  Really not decisive in either case since volume on both was barely 1.2:1 neg.  On top of that, the A.A.I.I. numbers are now really out of line with both the bullish and bearish numbers UNDER their historic norms. While bullish was up 4.8% it is still a full 10 pts (25%) under its average, and bearish was down 9.2%% to 27.9 and is about 3 pts (10%) below average with neutral now at 43.3 or 40% over average.  This is a very strange set of numbers.

 

Well, I guess we don’t really need the Fed to raise rates...seems the market is doing the job all by itself.  This week alone the 2 yr. has moved from .80% to .86%, the 3 yr. from .91 to 1.00%, the 5yr from 1.18 to 1.28%, the 10yr from 1.63 to 1.75% and the long end 30 yr. from 2.34 to 2.46%.  These are really meaningful moves and they are the backbone for strength in the US$.  It’s nice to see, but earlier this week we saw the effect of a strong dollar on trade imbalances, not to mention the gold.  While the Oil “seems to be immune to (or decoupled from) this dollar strength, that won’t last much longer either.  As one of the smarter guys on CNBC’s FAST MONEY said today, “It will last right up until it doesn’t, and then watch out!”

CAM                                                             

  

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After the close 10/5/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 6TH

 

The market continues to be a buy the dips and sell the rallies, range bound play.  We were up right from the start with the internals no worse that 2:1 at any point during the day.

 

Oil continued to edge higher all day and reaching almost $50 (49.97) by 1:15PM.  It backed off slightly but closed the daily outcry session up another $1.03.  Now comes the problem of whether the Friday employment number will be good or bad.  And more importantly whether good news is good news or bad news !!  Too hot may mean that a rate rise is back on the table for December.  A disappointing number may mean that we are still stuck is this subpar slow growth and that the Fed may not have any arrows in the quiver to use on the problem.  Rates are already creeping up with the 10 year now solidly over 1.7% and the US$ is stronger.  So, why the disconnect between the oil and the gold??  Yesterday was the worst day in 3 ½ years in gold and one of the best in years for the oil.  The link may be gone there, but the market is certainly linked to the oil.

 

So, I’m going to stick with the charts.  It may get old but as I said the other day, we made new highs and have followed with the Brexit crash and have had a series of lower highs.  Any piece of overnight bad new would break this fragile market to the downside.  There is no shortage of possibilities from where it may come.  Numerous wars and hotspots, several international banking problems and of course the newest cyber and NSA issues.

 

Could always be worse, you could be the head of HR at Booz Allen…

 

CAM

 

 

 

   

 

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After the close 10/4/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 5TH

 

The market got off to a quiet start and rallied slightly, fell, rallied and then fell until a bit after 1:00 when the internals got weaker and we went to new lows for the day.  We rallied again in the last 40 minutes or so to close down only 85 after making the lows at down 130 or so.

 

The gold was not so fortunate and although I really wanted to buy a pullback, when a chart goes “vertical” I need to see at least some horizontal action or a clear blow-off and reversal before I get involved.  To say that the move surprised me would be a gross understatement.  The crash of the British Pound was the force at work to get this started, but the acceleration later in the day was market forces and the long liquidation from the GLD ETF and an overcrowded speculative interest in the futures. This is evident by the decline in open interest on the decline.

 

So far, most of the clichés have been wrong this year, so maybe “Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur,” won’t work either, but so far it’s right on the money.  It’s only another 6 days, so we’ll have to wait it out.  And those aren’t business days…the weekends count…

I’m still concerned about the “bear flag” in the S&P but the longer it goes on, the more likely it will turn into a consolidation, or so says Edwards and Magee.

 

.

 

CAM

 

 

 

   

 

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After the close 10/3/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 4th

 

Monday was almost as boring as expected with light volume and no real action to speak of.  We got stopped out of the GLD position for a 50% loss and YTD numbers are again still respectable but under the 70% mark.  We also bought the LULU calls that we bid under the market late in the day.  The stock failed to make a new low here (barely) as was the case the last time it bottomed and rallied in May, and before that in March and February.  Each time it had a rally of $10 or more.  We are just at the lower Bollinger Band and if this market starts up I’d be very surprised if they could hold this one back.

 

The S&P500 still looks like a bear flag to me, but it continues to run along the uptrend line started @ 2120 on 9/14 thru 9/27 and 9/29.  It is also supported by a rising 13 day moving average at today’s low at 2154.  It’s hard to view this market as a top with the sentiment numbers so stilted to the Bear/Neutral side, but the chart is the chart. A sober unbiased look at the chart show new highs 8/15, lower highs 9/6-9/7, a break and rally to again lower highs 9/22 and again at the end of Q3 on 9/30.

 

While I don’t agree with the nanosecond approach to the market, I’d be a fool not to realize that many do, and that if we do break, and the “machines” take over, as they do, then it will be a problem.  Seasonality favors the upside here and it is my intention to use strength to establish a short position in the S&P…

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 9/29/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 30TH

 

Under the heading “No good deed goes unpunished,” on Wednesday afternoon right before the close I sent out a text calling for the sale of the FB puts, because I felt that with the close we were having, the likely move would be a gap up in the stock, hence a gap down in the puts, causing everyone involved to be taken out at what would be the low of the day.  Well, I was right, it all worked out that way, EXCEPT the FB high wasn’t

over yesterday’s high and the puts never traded down to the 50% Down rule trigger and finished the day $1.47, $ .38 over our sell.

 

The internals were just okay this morning running just even or slightly ahead until after lunch.  At that point they reversed to 2:1 negative and the market got seriously worse.  By the time we were down 250 we were almost 3:1 and we had a little rally but even so, the final numbers were the lows of the session at 3:1 volume and 4:1 stocks.  A look at the S&P500 chart shows an almost exact double top with yesterday and both unable to make any progress beyond the failed attempt to break above the close on 9/22 of 2177.18.  There is trouble right here in River City and DB literally and WFC figuratively are in the forefront.  I will be looking for shorts on any rallies.

.

 

CAM

 

 

 

   

 

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After the close 9/27/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 28th

 

I hate to be a party pooper but today’s rally really does nothing for me. Normally, a “turnaround Tuesday” would have had a little more downside this morning and then a turn and built up to the kind of close we had.  So, what was missing?  Well, to begin with we started up, and came back down and tested yesterdays close, so far so good.  We rallied to new highs of the day, still good.  Then we went dead for the last 3 ½ hours and the adv/dec and volume declined.  At the close the market was overbought and the a/d was barely 1.3:1 and volume the same.  Okay, it’s not bearish unless you have an investment timeframe that’s more than the rest of this week.  So far I’m seeing a break from the consolidation after the run up from Brexit.  The break down 9/7, a consolidation and rally right back to the break on 9/22 @ 18,500.  It’s going to take a close over 18.570 for me to consider a successful test of the 18,000 breakout.

 

I’m going to let the FB put trade go to the 50% Down Rule since I still see the chart as a bear flag, and the GLD call order from today is good for the rest of the week…  

 

CAM

                                                       

                                                                         

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After the close 9/26/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 27th

 

The market started lower on follow-thru from Friday’s poor showing along with the trouble with the European banks, DB in particular.  The market internals were poor from the start and while they didn’t get a lot worse, they also languished in the 2.5:1 area for both stocks and volume and gave no signs of any exhaustion.  As mentions in my Weekly Strategies last night, the sentiment is so negative that while news may give us plenty of reason to pull back from all-time high levels, I don’t expect a top here.  That doesn’t mean we can’t have a 3-5 % selloff at any time at all.  The trade in FB is a good example.  If we get a close below $127 we can easily test $124, however if I see 124 on a fast break and start to see blow-off volume I’d probably take a quick profit.

 

This is a short note since I’m in the middle of a downsizing move and will return to my regular form by Thursday…

.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 9/22/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 23RD

 

Today was exactly what you would expect for the day after the Fed does what everyone wants them to do, nothing.  It was your typical follow-thru day after a roaring rally with the kind of internals we saw yesterday.  The internals today were Goldilocks again, not too hot and not too cold, stocks were right around 5:1 up and the volume was just over 3:1.  These are not climactic but still quite respectable.

 

Then we have the A.A.I.I. sentiment numbers; bullish down another 3.1% to 24.8% or over 30% under its long term average.  The bearish and neutral numbers up to 20% and 30% respectively over their averages.  With the NASDAQ closing at new highs again today, over 75% of investors are either neutral or outright bearish.  This is the “Wall of worry” you hear about being climbed.

 

The futures are about unchanged tonight with the oil - $ .52 and the stock futures all unchanged, with gold -$5.  If we continue to get a small selloff in the metals I will want to add the GLD calls.  We still have HL common and the silver continues to outperform, but I believe that everyone should own some gold regardless.

 

CAM

 

 

 

   

 

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After the Fed 9/21

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 22nd

 

Well, I was wrong.  Fortunately my bet was small and I cut it off pretty quickly and had the FB calls that came roaring back as the market rose as well as adding next week’s 130 calls when the rally picked up speed.

 

The internals were strong all day and even when we sold off just after noon, we never got down to worse than 2:1 up in the  A/ D or volume.  At the close we were 9:1 up volume and 6:1 up stocks.  The NASDAQ closed at another new high and the FB, which looked like it was forming a bear flag broke out to the upside right at the close.  The next high close is $130.27 and the all-time is within striking distance at $131.98.  While the stock is a bit overbought on this run from 126, it could still move to 133-136.  I will continue to roll forward with higher strike calls on a weekly basis.

 

I am also still interested in re-establishing a gold position in options.  While we closed out the HL spreads, the big account still has the stock from $3.95 ($6.10) and if this current bottom in gold holds $1,300-1,320 a move thru $1,400 and beyond is not out of the question.  We are in unchartered territory as it relates to the rush to devalue all the worlds’ currencies, and a no time in the last 5000 years has it turned out well…

 

 CAM

                             

 

 

   

 

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After the close 9/20/2016

 Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 21st

 

Tuesday was a virtual replay of Monday’s market, with the exception of the internals at the close.  We opened and ran up 105 in the Dow and 12 in the S&P500 and spent the entire day “inside” yesterday’s range.  These inside days are generally thought to be meaningless as they make no progress in either direction, but the reversal of the internals might give a hint to the coming direction.  While we started with 2:1 adv /dec and volume by the end of the day we were 3:2 with the decliners well ahead.

 

The problem here is that the market has become highly news driven and between the close today and the close on Wednesday we will have both the Bank of Japan and the Fed make what may be market shaking announcements.  We have taken a couple of profits this week and I have some very specific thoughts (not necessarily the right ones, but mine nonetheless) about both of these groups.  First of all, the B of J hasn’t done anything right since 1990, so I’m pretty certain whatever they do will continue to be ineffective.  The Fed has lost its credibility by moving the finish line and failing to raise when it has had the opportunities.  I think that several of the financial markers that they rely upon are pointing to a rate rise and I am willing to take a portion (roughly half) of those profits mentioned above and take a chance on a “low probability / high impact” action by the Fed of raising rates or making a hawkish statement.  If that were to happen, I believe that we could easily see a decline of a couple of percent.  We’ll see in the morning after the B.of J. decision and by 2:01PM…

 

CAM

                                                                          

 

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After the close 9/19/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 20th

 

The market got off to a roaring start Monday morning and went straight up about 120 and ran out of gas.  The adv / dec and volume numbers were good and at noon were still a solid 4:1, but as the oil started to come off a bit, we faltered a bit and went negative touching down 50, followed by a rally to up 50 and another sinking spell to close the day just negative.  The internals were still better than the averages at up over 2:1 A/D and just under 2:1 volume.

 

We closed out the positions in XLF with a minor loss.  It looked like a major decline but was in fact a spin-off to form the 11th S&P sector for REIT stocks, so what looked like XLF  @ 19.31-4.31 was like an X-div and the loss was actually only pennies on our $ .47 position.  I sold it because it was a distraction and confusing to watch.  We also took a profit on SFM and day traded the SPY puts as well as going home short other SPY put in case the reversal from +15 to down on the day in the S&P follows through tomorrow morning.  If you’re not a subscriber and don’t get the texting service you don’t see these trades during the day…

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 9/15/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 16th

Today we started a little flat after the futures rallied from down last night to unchanged before our open in New York.  We spent most of the day in rally mode and never came any closer to yesterday’s lows than the open.  A couple of times we tried to go negative and I day traded the SPY puts for a small loss of $ .22.

 

The internals continued to show strength with the volume closing out the day at 6:1 up and the stocks coming in at 3:1 up.  We now have had 3 100+ range day this week, so clearly volatility has returned.  I would expect this to be the case until at least the Fed decision on Wednesday.  Some of the standard relationships are out of whack.  Oil was up as was the US$ and stocks while Gold was lower with miners higher.  I would expect things to calm down after the announcement (after the initial wrong way reaction).

 

No trades for tonight.  Use the texting service for intraday new ideas…

 

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 9/14/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 15th

 

 

Today was back and forth all day with a good start and an unfortunate close.  Even with AAPL leading the way we couldn’t come close to yesterdays or the day before’s highs, and we did make a minorly lower low.  Any move to the downside can turn ugly in a hurry tomorrow.  We day-traded the SPY puts and when the market rallied we bought the next series lower (210 puts) and held them over night.  We’ll have to see how this works in the morning.  As of right now (10:50PM) the futures are slightly lower, but a lot can happen in the early morning hours.

 

The internals were pretty mixed with the volume almost 2:1 down and the stocks barely leaning to the negative side @ 8:7 down.  The cross currents in this market are many but the volume has been consistently bad.  One day is a clue or climactic, a second might be a more important warning, if it happens again it will put me solidly on the short side.

 

No trades tonight since I need to see whether we hold and rally or just collapse..

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 9/13/2016

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 14th

 

We were down and ugly right from the get go this morning and it only got worse.  The internals literally could not have been much worse, with volume almost 40:1 down while stocks were just 10:1.  Now I guess we’ll see if it is a prelude to more to come, or as it was on Friday, climactic.  We had a couple of short little rallies but none of them held.  The only place to hide was in AAPL.

 

The problems were many today, starting with disappointing China numbers overnight showing diminished demand.   Then came Lockhart’s resignation as of February, the weight of the market itself, and finally followed by the worst participation in an auction for the long end of the bond market in 12 years.  If we close below yesterday’s lows in the Dow and the S&P500 we could see a quick decline of 200 and 40 respectively

 

Our trade in SSYS was executed as a buy @ market at the open $21.22 and stopped out @ $20.87.  Not too bad.  It hit $20.64 and then rallied to close only slightly lower on the day @ $21.36.  I still like this one a lot, and you can rebuy it if you like and use today’s low as a stop…

CAM

                         

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After the close 9/12/2016

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 13th

 

Sunday night the futures were sloppy, not horrendous, just sloppy.  This morning they were ugly, Dow -140 (+25 fair value) with similar action in the other indexes.  By the time I had my coffee it looked like all was forgiven.  We did have a pretty hard fade just after the open but it never really could get going.  We sold our QQQ puts via text for a nice gain and the first half of the FB calls we bought in the market letter at the 100% Up Rule.  A bit later we sold the 2nd half of the FB and the old position in the GLD, since they both expire Friday.  We replaced them all on a pullback with GLD and FB that expire 9/23.  All in all it was a good day…

 

Today’s market action was typical of the dramatic oversold nature of what we went through on Friday.  As I mentioned this weekend, the adv/dec and vol were extreme.  At 3:00 PM they were both 20:1, however, at the close the volume expanded by 30% on the day and the final was 30:1.  Today’s move lower at the open without “massive” follow-thru, and a rally to close at or near the highs means we should test the breakdown in the neighborhood of 2185-2190 S&P and 18550 DJIA.  These are not outlandish moves, but since we are long lower (FB calls @ 1.38 now 1.56, GLD@ .83 now $1.05) a move higher is a nice gain.  This is not to say we can’t go higher, just that we need to see how things act at those higher levels.

 

Based on cycles, this tends to be an up week, but the Hillary health news giving Trump a boost might throw a wrench into the markets love of the status quo.  If we do continue higher, some managers might cheat a little on the S&P rebalance due at the end of the week and be buyers of the under-weighted names.

Last week I said I’d add some trades to this note, so here’s the first:

Buy SSYS @ mkt.  This 3D printer company has been consolidating and is bouncing off the lower Bollinger Band, for the very short term I would use last week’s low of $20.87 as a sell stop.  Unfortunately the options have no liquidity.

 

CAM

 

 

                                     

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After the close 9/8/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Editio 

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 9th 

 

The market was weak from the start today and stayed that way the whole session.  We had a major downgrade on AAPL and it opened near the prior day’s low and continued lower.  Yesterday’s high was $108.76 and today’s open was $107.27 and we fell as low as $105.24 and closed at $105.52 -2.84.  Needless to say we were stopped out on our 50% rule on the 9/108 calls.

 

The low in the Dow was  -79 and again we climbed back to close - $46.  The market internals today were nowhere near as bad as one would expect.  Adv/dec were 1343 / 1610 and the volume was 430 / 400.  This market has shrugged off all kinds of news.  Today it was disappointment over Mr. Draghi and the ECB keeping rates unchanged and no new asset purchases.  Between AAPL and TSCO (Tractor Supply) $69.38 -14.15 or 17% there was plenty of trepidation, and yet again we didn’t follow to the downside.  As I said last night, this will go on as long as it does, and then it won’t, and even though I don’t foresee any major selloff, there will still be pain…

 

I have been asked to give more individual trades more often, so starting next week I will try to include a couple of short term trades.  I won’t be forcing the issue, but rather looking for the ones that fit my risk / reward profile.

 

 

CAM

 

 

                         

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After the close 9/7/2016

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 8th

 

The market got off to a quiet start and hung around slightly higher until about 10:15 or so when we started a decline that just ate away at prices until we were down about 65 on the Dow. By the time the Fed’s Beige Book came out we had already spent 2 hours consolidating the started back up.  As has been the case for 50 days running, we did not move 1% again.

 

The market internals today were about 1.25:1 for the volume and 3:2 for the A/D line. We had small losses in the Dow and S&P, the NASDAQ was up and  closed at another new high.

 

The long-awaited release of the IPhone 7 and any other product surprises took place and it went pretty much as I mentioned last night.  The stock did nothing of substance moving from up at the open and then down and sideways while everyone listened and complained about how little was both new and meaningful.  The biggest complaints centered on the need for wireless headphones and the fact that you can’t charge through the “Lightening” port while charging the phone.

 

And then the call and the program ended…And then the stock started to lift and our long on the AAPL 9/108 calls @ $1.01 went right along with it.  The low was $ .83 and in 35 minutes they were $1.60.  They closed $1.50.

 

The Gold had a small pullback but the GLD calls from $ .97 closed @ $2.61.  Tomorrow’s another day and these daily internals and the strength of the market to move off the lows is impressive…And they will stay that way, right up until they don’t.  To use an old expression I’ve used before, “They don’t ring a bell at the top or bottom..

 

CAM

 

 

   

 

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After the close 9/6/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 7th

 

The market got off to a good start in official “end of summer” after Labor Day session. We had another poor ISM services number and as the US$ sank, gold took off.  The position we added on Thursday afternoon in the 9/126 calls @ $ .97 opened up to almost our 100% UP rule point.  While I hated to give up half of the position, the rules are the rules for a reason.  We sold the first half @ $1.94 this morning and they closed the day @ $2.99+ 1.54.  The balance will be traded (probably) with a trailing stop so we don’t give up too much of the gain, or sell it at some indiscriminate price.

 

The market internals today almost 2:1 for the volume and 3:2 for the adv / dec.  While we had gains across the board, the NASDAQ was up over twice the NYSE or the S&P 500, and was the only one closing at a new high.

 

The long-awaited release of the IPhone 7 and any other product surprises is tomorrow.  The press (which has no idea or any actual information) has talked the new improvements or features down to the point where the expectations are so low that AAPL would have to bring out a string with 2 cans on it to actually disappoint.  We are long the AAPL 9/108 calls @ $1.01 (closed today $1.37) and the history of these releases has been higher prices between the weeks before and the actual availability of the product.  During that time we will see actual phones, accessories, and features.  The horrendous performance and recall of the Samsung Galaxy 7 can only help IPhone sales.  And frankly, as a longtime Apple user, I have every intention of getting my upgrade as soon as it’s available.  I’m certain I’m not the only one !!!

CAM

 

   

 

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Before the open 9/6/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 6th

 

 

There was no market today here in the US, but the futures traded both last night and tonight.  The Gold and the oil markets had most of the action with the report of a Putin and the Saudi’s having a deal, followed by the lack of any real information about how it would actually take place.  After the rally from $44 to $46.53 and back to its current price of $45.05 + .61.  The gold has been in its current area around $1,326.90 +$3.7.  A move through Friday’s high of $1,330.30 would take up into resistance around $1,340.

 

The index futures are doing nothing.  Up a hair or down the same.  Tuesday is supposed to be the official end of the summer, but I find it takes a day or two for everyone to actually get back in gear.  Our positions look very favorable to me, but I will use the texting service for new trades or to issue stops under our longs…

 

CAM 

 

   

 

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After the close 9/1/2016

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 2ND

Finally got the GLD calls

 

Today’s market opened lower and was weak right up until the ISM numbers came out and were well below estimates.  This started a rally from DOW -120 to close up on the day.  As has been the case all of last month, we couldn’t really get any follow-thru.  It has been 39 days without a gain or loss of 1%.  The internals at noon were 2:1 down with volume the same.  At the close the A/D was 14:15 and volume 365:453.

 

These internals remain stronger than the daily action looks.  Today was no exception.

 

The open positions that we have aside from the HL spread is a new position mentioned last night is the AAPL 9/108 calls bought @ $1.01.

 

Last, but not least, I am finally got the GLD calls. This is a position that I’ve been trying to buy for over a week.  The new, lower support seems to be the round number $1,300.  We paid $ .97 right after the open, and between the ISM numbers, auto sales and head of the IMF LaGarde’s comments that we need more “forceful action” to avoid a low-growth trap ahead of this weekends, the gold strengthen.  A close over $1,324 could send us higher again…Have a good long weekend…

 

.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 8/31/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 1ST

 

Today’s market opened lower and was weak on and off all day. As has been the case all month we made a low of -120 and then closed a loss of less than half at -53.  The volume was and advance / decline barely 3:2 down.

 

These internals remain stronger than the daily action looks.  The internals have led the way for the whole month to date.  For a month that has a historic bent to the downside August has been pretty strong.  We also had a historically small range.  The last August with a range this small was 1928.

 

The open positions that we have aside from the HL spread is a new position mentioned last night is the AAPL 9/108 calls bought @ $1.01.

 

Last, but not least, I am still trying to buy GLD calls. This is a position that I’ve been trying to buy for over a week.  The new, lower support seems to be the round number $1,300.  I used the texting service near the close today and stipulated that the order was for both this afternoon and tomorrows session, and it is to buy the GLD9/126 calls.  I’m hoping for a decline overnight in the futures and maybe to pick up those calls early in the AM.  We had to take the loss on 400 CRR on the stop at the close today.

 

.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 8/30/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 31ST

 

Today’s market opened lower and was weak all day with volume running just over 4:3 and advance / decline barely 15:14.  The market was up and down all day had a minor rally to close off just under -50.

 

These internals remain stronger than the daily action looks.  The internals have led the way for the whole month to date.  For a month that has a historic bent to the downside August has been pretty strong.

 

The only positions that we have aside from the HL spread and WFM calls looked pretty good this morning but gave up the gains by midday.  We’ll have to wait to see if they can hold here and move higher.

 

Last, but not least, I am still trying to buy GLD calls. This is a position that I’ve been trying to buy for over a week.  The new, lower support seems to be the round number $1,300.  I’ll use the texting service for any new orders.  We will probably have to take the loss on 400 CRR tomorrow unless it rallies.

 

Also, as mentioned yesterday and on today’s radio show, AAPL has been deluged with bad news but remains above its recent breakout above $106.  With the release of IPhone 7 in 8 days, I will want to buy the 9/107 calls around $1.20 or so.

 

.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 8/29/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition 

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 30TH

  

Today’s market opened higher and was strong all day with advancing volume running at over 5:1 at the close. .Advance / declines also had a strong day with the final of 3:1.  The most impressive gains came from FB (a new high and high close) and the other “generals”, AMZN in particular continued higher.  The standout non-performer was AAPL with the headline EU tax issues and Tim Cook selling 980,000 shares of stock.  Usually AAPL would be getting a bounce here (10 days to IPhone 7 launch) but the chart is troubling.

 

These internals remain stronger than the daily action looks.  The internals have led the way for the whole month to date.  For a month that has a historic bent to the downside August has been pretty strong.

 

I am still trying to get long the GLD here at support but haven’t gotten the calls at my price and won’t pay up just to be in the trade.  We again went into the CRR (calls have no liquidity but have another close stop.

 

If, as it seems, that good news is in fact good news the banking sector looks interesting.  Better economic numbers and a rate hike would steepen the yield curve and help banks with better returns on investment. I’d be more likely to buy a pullback.

 

We are still in the SCO (short oil) and while the oil looks like it’s bottoms, it remains vulnerable to $41-42.50.

 

I’ll be looking for some short term trades and using the texting service for new orders.

CAM

  

           

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After the close 8/23/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 24TH

 

Today’s market opened higher and was strong all morning with the volume running as high as 6:1.  Later in the day it sold off and closed near the lows of the day at 2:1, and at the close we were up only about +20.  The stocks were also in the same boat at just over 2:1 in advance / declines.

 

These internals remain stronger than the daily action looks.  The internals have led the way for the whole month to date.  For a month that has a historic bent to the downside August has been pretty strong.

 

The only positions that we have aside from the HL spread and the BMY calls are the WFM calls looked pretty good this morning but gave up the gains by midday.  We’ll have to wait to see if they can hold here and move higher.

 

Last, but not least, I am still trying to buy GLD calls. Also on my radar, CRR and XCO.

 

CAM   

           

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After the close 8/22/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

 

FOR TRADING August 23rd

 

 

Monday was another see-saw day with a down open (-70), a rally to up on the day (+30) and back down 50 and a close of down $25.  The internals were mixed as volume was 1.5:1 down while the advance/declines were almost exactly even.  The short SIG position was about unchanged while the lower oil prices stopped us from buying more SCO.  WFM went our way all day and our options were up 80% to close at $ .77+.34.  Tomorrow I’ll try again to buy some GLD calls, but any close below $1,336.40 will take us out.

 

We still have a position in FAST and we took profits last week in the expiring calls.  The stock looks like it’s turning the corner but I need it to work off some of its overbought position to get long the calls again.

 

I’m also looking at TBT calls, rewriting against our long SUN position, and as soon as we see some more stability, long the BMY calls.

 

 CAM

 

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After the close 8/18/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING August 19th

 

Thursday started off lower but again, it was short lived and while we didn’t have any dramatic gains, the market internals were decidedly stronger than it looked.  The advance / declines and the volume were both better than 2:1 to the upside.  From where I sit it seems to me that this market is certain of the status quo being kept intact with a democratic winner in just over 110 days.  As we all know, the market just loves certainty and every gaffe and stupid comment by Mr. Trump just adds to that outcome.  While it’s true that the polls are often wrong (Brexit) this one doesn’t seem likely to turn into an upset.

 

The US$ break below 95 on Tuesday and its continued weakness since has sent both the Oil and Gold higher.  Both are well into overhead resistance and are subject to pullbacks, but Friday’s are not generally the day people are abandon their “protective” positions.  The 6 day gains in Oil are a remarkable 16%.  To put that in context, if we had $2.00 gas last week we would be paying almost $2.35 today.  Its recent highs of $53 in early June is still a bit away, but the gold is a different situation.  The gold highs around $1,380 in July are only 3% away.  The reason I make this comparison is because commodities are a “zero-sum” market where moves to new highs generally result in a short squeeze that propel prices even higher.

 

We haven’t gotten filled on our FAST calls yet, but I will use the texting service if I see the opportunity to be a buyer.  I will probably also add to the SCO position a little bit lower also.  The position is roughly 1/3 the size of our normal commitment so I’m not concerned with the minor loss it now represents.

 

CAM  

                                                                                                       

 

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After the close 8/17/2016

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING August 18th

 

Wednesday was another FOMC day. We opened and sold off without much conviction, rallied up to last month’s minutes time but in the end we just rallied to close higher.  Even the selloff in the oil couldn’t really press the downside for long and closed near the highs and up for the fifth day in a row.  It’s a little bit lower tonight but after a $7.50 rally that’s to be expected.

 

The gold rebounded but fell hard after the Fed minutes release only to rally again and closed mid-range.  We bought the GLD 8/127 calls on Tuesday and while they did rally I am keeping a close eye on the position.  I think the action over the last 2 weeks has been quite constructive and any close above the highs around $1,370 gives us a shot at $1,400.  The problem is that our position expires Friday and I’ll have to roll it forward.  We have a good start tonight with the futures trading up about $11 @ $1,356 (10PM)

 

CAM

 

                       

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After the close 8/16/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 17th

 

Today was soft right from the start.  The market internals at the end of the day were over 2:1 and the volume was better than 2:1 down.  Energy started strong again and it never really gave it back, closing right near the highs.  Tonight the futures are lower by about  $ .15 and comfortably over $46.  The gold rallied higher and then gave it all back again but managed to close up, but still about 2/3 up on the range.  We are long the GLD calls, but I’m keeping a close eye on it since the OBV and momentum seem to be weakening.

 

All in all it was a weak day across the board.  After a decent start the WFM calls and the  BMY calls faltered.  The BMY has been down pretty hard on the discontinuation of a trial last week but I think it can bounce a couple of dollars from here, unless it breaks the recent lows around today’s lows ($59.30)

 

Our position in FAST was also strong, but getting into some serious resistance.  I sold the second half of the position at $1.70 and will look at it again after it either pulls back some or just consolidates in this area from $41.25-$44 .  I didn’t sell the stock position in the big account. I also bought a small position in the SCO (reverse oil ETF) just to see if we can capitalize on any pullback in the oil.

 

 

CAM

 

                        

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After the close 8/15/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 16th

 

Today was positive right from the start.  The market internals at the end of the day were over 2:1 and the volume was better than 3:1.  Energy started strong and never gave it back.  The gold was slightly higher and closed up after a narrow range day.  We are long the GLD calls, but I’m keeping a close eye on it since the OBV and momentum seem to be weakening.

 

All in all it was a very positive day across the board.  We also bought WFM calls and some BMY calls.  The BMY has been down pretty hard on the discontinuation of a trial last week but I think it can bounce a couple of dollars from here, unless it breaks the recent lows.

 

Our position in FAST was also strong, but getting into some serious resistance.  I sold half of the position at just under the 100% up Rule just to be sure.  They expire on Friday so I don’t have a lot of patience for pullbacks.  

 

 

CAM 

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After the close 8/11/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 12th

 

 

Today was positive right from the start.  The market internals at the end of the day were

Almost 2:1 and the volume was better than 3:1.  The retail names, Macys (M) and JWN were solid all day.  The oil also had a solid day after they tried the downside to rally and close near the highs of the day.

 

All in all it was a strong day across the board.  Our position in FAST was higher.breaking through the prior recovery highs at $43.23 to move up to $43.63 and although it’s a little overbought on the daily, on the weekly it is still oversold and looks like it could test $44.0-$45.

The only disappointment was the gold pulling back and it looks like it will test the lows again around $1,330.  A bit of a disappointment, but we will await tomorrows open to make a judgment on the 8/127 calls.

 

 

 

CAM

 

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After the close 8/10/2016

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING August 11th

 

Wednesday was another long boring day. We opened and sold off without much conviction, rallied several time but in the end we had just drifted a little lower.  It is a long held adage that you “don’t short a quiet market,” and this one seems to go with that rule.  Even with the selloff in the oil we just couldn’t really press the downside for long.  As noted last night, there were some truly terrible earnings reports in the solar stocks and they certainly showed no lack of sellers.  Today a couple of the popular named fared no  better. Shake Shack missed and was punished while Ralph Lauren rallied as Coach and Michael Kors fell.

 

The gold rebounded but couldn’t hold the bulk of the rally and closed just under mid-range.  We bought the GLD 8/127 calls on Tuesday and while they did rally I am keeping a close eye on the position.  I expect to use the texting service to issue either a stop or a sell order tomorrow.

 

The Oil had tough day failing to continue its climb, closing about 7/8s down on the range.  

 

 

 

CAM

 

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After close 8/9/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

FOR TRADING AUGUST 10TH

 

Yet another day of incredibly boring trading, unless of course you owned either the “daily double” or the disaster de jour.  Of course there was plenty of excitement after the close in any number of earnings surprises. CYBR, SPWR and some names that no one really cares about.  DIS was okay and the Eiger interview was more about the Company’s flexibility to manage its new mix of products and services.

 

The market internals were pretty even for the day with advance/declines were 1561 to 1376 and the volume was 390 to 348:2. As I’ve said several times in the last 2 week’s “The longer we spend consolidating over the breakout over 2150 (S&P500) the more the chance we are going higher.  Again today we had new highs in the NASDAQ, S&P500 and the DJIA.

 

After taking a small loss in the AAPL put position I went into the GLD 8/127 calls.  The chart on the next page shows the support at the prior breakout and while it really hasn’t bounced much, the quiet stability can turn on this one with just some unrest or currency trouble anywhere on the globe.

 

The US$ has had a bit of a bottoming action on the lower end of the Bollinger Bands which are basically the limits of the specific trading ranges for commodities or stocks.  Along with the moving averages and the past support around 95, we can see some further improvement would cause us to bail on the stronger dollar index, since the stronger the dollar becomes, the weaker the pricing of internationally traded goods that are denominated in US$.  There is some formidable resistance between 96.50 and 97.

 

We’ll wait and see if anyone else lowers rates or reports trouble in their economy that causes the dollar to fall.

CAM

                                                                                   

                                                                         

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After close 8/8/2016

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING August 9th

 

Monday was another long boring day. However, the market internals were again positive. Advance/declines were 1700/1200 and the volume 5/3, and so the markets seem to be telling us that the there is still more buying that has now started to carefully buy some of the secondary stocks.

 

The gold had a small range in recent memory.  We are keeping the order for the GLD  9/126.50 calls for Tuesday.  The longer it stays near the 1320-1330 the better it looks.

 

The Oil had a good day closing about 2/3 up on the range and positive on the days.

If energy and financials continue to make headway that will pull the market higher.  If the financial can catch better bids that would be greatly positive for all the market.

 

The only thing that gives me pause is the VIX.  There is such a steadily declining price in the futures is showing me a market that contains almost no concern for these levels in the indexes.  The VIX show complacency is near all-time highs.  This is never a good thing for the longs…..

CAM

 

 

                                                               

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Weekend review 8/5

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition 

 

REVIEW OF THE WEEK ENDED 8/5

 

The market this week finished off with a monumental days after a week of slightly higher slightly lower alternating days.  We were back on the upside after the S&P500 tried the downside and it produced an “outside week” with both a lower low and a higher high. While the S&P was only up about $9.27 or 0.43%, it all seemed to hinge on the good employment numbers today.

 

The internals, which I mentioned yesterday were positive on a down day, really left little to doubt today with the advance/declines 2146:806 with volume 365:144.  No question about the internal strength.

 

Last week I added to my position in FAST 8/42 calls ($.95 now $1.15) by purchasing a position in the stock @ $42.15.  This is a low risk trade and when texted, I included a stop @ $41.44.  Every time I look at this chart I see a slightly overbought daily, but the weekly and monthly both show an oversold chart with a “flagging out” of price.  This is one of my favorite charts to trade.  I may be wrong, but this looks like if it will just close over $43.45 it can move to $45-46.

 

On my note for trading 8/4 I mentioned that the gold looked weak and was looking for a pullback toward 1330.  We closed at 1336 today and any movement to the 1325-1330 will cause me to take a new long position in the GLD.

 

 

CAM

 

               

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After close 8/4/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 5TH

 

 

Today’s market was like watching paint dry.  There was really nothing of any consequence going on.  Single digit gains and losses in all the major averages made it difficult to even stay awake.  Everyone is waiting for the 8:30 release of last month’s employment number.

 

The market internals were pretty even for the day with advance/declines were 4:3 and the volume was 3:2. As I’ve said several times in the last 2 week’s “The longer we spend consolidating over the breakout over 2150 (S&P500) the more the chance we are going higher.  Even with the move down on Tuesday, the S&P500 has not closed below the breakout.

 

We have a small position in WTW calls and the Company today reported in-line earnings but a miss on revenues.  It is trading now (5:21pm) at $10.67 and is slightly lower on the day, but well off its high of $11.72.  They are holding a conference call now, and while disappointing, it has a large short position.  Any good news on the call can take it higher.  If not, the position was purposely small to avoid any real damage.

 

We are still maintaining our spread position in HL and I’m looking to get back into the metals and a few post earnings names.  We still have positions in FAST, AA, and a short in QQQ for balance.

 

CAM

 

 

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After close 8/3/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 4

 

Today was another mindless, non-directional day with the markets not really making any head-way.  However, the internals were the best in days with volume 2.5:1 up and the advance decline line 18:11.  Both are better than many of the days with much bigger gains.  Earnings are still split between “okay” and “not great.”

 

The correlation between the Oil and stocks was evident right from the start and while we really didn’t get very far, we were ahead all day and stocks improved with the oil gains. Unfortunately, the Transports could manage a very short range “inside” day without much oomph…The airlines too were barely up and also had inside days that covered less than a third of their losses from yesterday.

 

As mentioned yesterday, the IBB (NASDAQ BIOTECH Etf) managed another small gain but also remains above their breakout over the 200 day Moving average.  Both of the names mentioned here yesterday, PRGO and GILD has up days again with PRGO moving higher by $2.70 or almost 3%.  The only problem I see with GILD is that they have a war chest of almost $25 Billion and needs to do a deal of some sort.  The downside of that is unless it does what the street considers a good deal the acquirer doesn’t get the boost that the acquired gets.

 

The gold also made a two day high around 1370, lower than the previously made highs around 1380 the beginning of last month and may be a little tired.  Any move back to 1330 or so would clearly get us back on the long side

CAM

 

 

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After close 8/2/2016

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 3

 

As I discussed in this week’s edition of Market Strategies:

“As noted here and in my daily updates I have become more bullish, while still expecting a tradable pullback into the support.  Technically, the longer the market consolidates above its breakout to new highs, the more likely the move continues. The problem here is that there is another school of thought that says, “Flat tops bring drops.” And for 10 of the last 12 days we have had a pattern of up today down tomorrow with internals also alternating day by day.  Also, there are more than a few big names that look tentative at best.  I know that after the July run-up some sideways movement is in order, but there were some spectacular moves up on earnings. However, many of them petered out and closed midrange.  Some of the biggest names and dividend payers are dramatically overbought and the trades are very crowded.”

The issue seemed to be coming to a head with the Tuesday action.  There are several cross-currents the most puzzling being the renewed correlation of oil and the stock market.  With the strong downside action in the US$ we got what we expected from the gold and silver markets, but it has not put any upward pressure on the oil.  The only way to explain the oil action is to classify the problem as an issue of supply.  While the GDP numbers last week showed that consumer spending showed an increase of 2.8%, by far the best performance of any of the internal statistics.  The XRT (retail ETF) has had a move in the past 5 weeks from below $40 to over $45.  That is a very meaningful move over that short period of time.  Is no one putting gas in their cars to go to the mall or to “fast-casual dining?  What happened to the AAA projections of auto usage as the chosen mode of transportation for the summer vacations (or staycations).

 

Clearly part of the problem is that oil is a “cheaters” market.  As prices rise the main players pump just a little bit more everyday as long as it doesn’t upset the balance of the spot, or cash market. It is a very unruly crowd and while they may agree that moderation is the key to steady prices, as soon as they see any weakness, they all rush in so as to not be the last one selling.  The best analogy is either the auto or the airline business.  As soon as one airline lowered their price, there was a price war.  For 10 years before GM went bankrupt whenever Ford or Chrysler offered incentives, GM followed with bigger incentives.  The downward spiral only accelerated.  Historically, this was the reason that the futures markets came to be effective for the farmers; they all didn’t have to run their produce or materials for sale at harvest.  They could pre-sell and store until delivery.

 

So, for tomorrow, I would think a bit about a different group, Biotech.  Not to chase the ones that had news today (BiiB) but some of the ones who have value and might fit the characteristics of good solid financials (GILD) or have strong balance sheets.  We have already bought a small position in PRGO from the Sunday letter.  My main thought is that the politicians are so embroiled in the “beat the other guy bloody” that they have stopped bad mouthing the group. My other choice would be the IBB since it seems to have put in a nice triple bottom since its fall from yearend @ 340 to a low @ 240.  I wouldn’t chase it here but if we get overall weakness in the market, the 9/310 calls anywhere near $3.10 would interest me.

 

CAM

 

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After close 8/1/2016

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 2

 

 

Today was back to the oil driven market with the US$ down fairly hard giving it no help whatsoever and at the same time the gold did little of anything.  The market was split with AAPL, GOOG and AMZN up and firm while energy was falling.

 

The volume was 2:1 down and advance declines not quite so bad at 1200 up and 1700 down.  With the bearish sentiment remains just around its long term average and the bulls still over 20% below theirs, we are really just continuing to work a bit higher day by day.  The S&P500 edged up to a new high at 2178 before closing down just $2.76 or a meager 0.13%.

 

While there are a plenty of reasons to consider this market toppy and overvalued, we are still the best house in the bad neighborhood.  Rates are higher, dividend stocks that generally replace bonds are crowded, and getting more so.

 

When we see companies like EXXON borrowing to make up the shortfall between free cash-flow, capital expenditures and dividend payments it’s usually pretty late to the party and the punchbowl is nearing empty.

 

We bought a few call on WTW ahead of the earnings due Thursday since it has a huge short interest and some pretty ugly comps.  Any surprises and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a $2 gain.  We also bought some QQQ puts for a balance in case we do wake up to a bad European morning that carries over here.  We also bought a little PRGO using a very close stop.  Most of our positions were bought near support anyway, so if we do turn down we won’t be hurt badly.

 

 

 

CAM

 

 

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WEEKEND REVIEW

Friday 10:00PM

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

 

Weekly Review 7/29/2016

 

 

Today’s market looked like a mish-mash of nothing, however a look at the internals paint a different picture.  Volume was 1.5:1 up and the advance declines were closer to 2:1.

 

This closed out a cyclically strong July, and although this starts the worst 4 months of the year, you certainly couldn’t see that in the averages.  The Dow and especially the S&P500 not only broke out to new highs, but the last 10 or 12 days have been a consolidation ABOVE the breakouts.  This is generally very bullish action.

 

We had a small gain for the week in both stocks and options.  We took a 30% gain by selling our CL August puts going into the earnings, and watched as they sank from $ .95 to close out the week @ $ .30 bid, well below our sale and the purchase price of $ .75.  We had a small day trade loss on Fed day in the gold, but finished the week strong with gains in current positions in HL, FAST, and AA.

 

We will go into more detail and have some more trades Sunday night, I will close now and get to work on the Weekly Strategies….Have a great weekend…

 

 

CAM

                                                                             

 

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After close 7/29/2016

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

 

FOR TRADING JULY 29th

 

 

The market had yet another “nobody bothered to show up” day.  Both advance/decline and advancing/declining volume we pretty close to even.  Dow down $16, S&P up $3.50.  Again, I’ll mention that while there may be a tradable pull back but a solid bull market consolidation that has been occurring above the breakout at 2125 or so.

 

The oil had no such luck and while it tried to rally, it just couldn’t hold more than minor advances during the day and has now broken below the support I felt would at least give it a bounce around the 42-42.50 area. I sold the SCO a little early @ $102.92, only to see it climb to $112 today.  Since it is a triple leveraged ETF, you can continue to trade it at any level and still take advantage of the leverage.  I still think there is a rally coming, but with overnight markets, it’s just too hard to balance the risk after it rallies $20-30.

 

I also added to my position in FAST 8/42 calls ($.95 now $1.15) by purchasing a position in the stock @ $42.15.  This is a low risk trade and when texted, I included a stop @ $41.44.  This stock missed on earning last week and I think it can be bought again around $42.25-50 using that same stop.

 

We are clearly in the summer doldrums with not a lot of volume and more vacuums on the upside and the downside.  If the stress tests for European banks come back with positive news overnight we may have another reason for more new highs…

 

CAM

 

                             

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After close 7/27/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 28th

 

Today’s market was like a high school kid’s worst nightmare, “What if I gave a party and nobody came?”  The AAPL earnings were already in the book before the open and everyone waited for the Fed decision, which of course was another non-event, followed by a minor relief rally.

 

I tried to trade the GLD using a close stop and it cost a minor $ .19 per contract.

We were profitable for about 5 minutes before it rallied hard.

 

I also took a small profit on the position of the CL puts.  I tend to shy away from the earnings related issues and CL has its second quarter tomorrow so I went with better safe than sorry.

 

The market internals were pretty even for the day with advance/declines were 14:15 and the volume was 3:4. As I’ve said several times in the last week “The longer we spend consolidating over the breakout over 2150 (S&P500) the more the chance we are going higher.  Follow that with the FB numbers after the close with the attendant $10 rally and we have as good a reason as any to bring the punchbowl back to the party.

 

We are still maintaining our spread position in HL and I’m looking to get back into the metals and a few post earnings names.  I’ll text new trades tomorrow.

 

CAM

 

 

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After close 7/26/2016

 

For Trading on July 27, 2016

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

 

Daily Commentary

 

 

How Many Burgers Can I Eat ?

 

McDonalds took a real beating today on earnings and everyone was asking the question, are we at PEAK Burgers?? This isn’t the oil market where we know that with the exception of advances in technology (fracking, etc) and use of new power sources, we will eventually run out of the black liquid.  A better question would be have we finally gotten to a point where there are just too many burger joints that will serve you breakfast, lunch and dinner?  Like the Starbucks across the street from each other, and the blocks of food drive-thru windows where you can get tacos, burgers, chicken and most anything, the issue for MCD $121.86-$5.54 or roughly $40 Dow points, is are there just too many competitors for their market.  In a quarter mile in my small town there are McD, Burger King, 5Guys and Wendy’s.  How many burgers can I eat??

 

Apple went the other way and after closing $96.67 down for the 4th day in a row beat expectations and closed @ $103.25. It has now made a recovery high over the the gap down it left last quarter on its miss. If it moves a little higher $104 it will have completed the roundtrip.

 

Enough about what’s happened already, let’s look at trades that look good now.  The US$ index has spent the last month consolidating after the massive move up on Brexit.  While it looks a little expensive, it has been able to consolidate ABOVE its breakout @$97.00 The longer it spends above this level, the more likely it is to hold and move higher. That should be bad news for Gold, Oil, and any of the other world commodities quoted in US$.  The GLD has been trading between $125 and 130 since the Brexit vote. I’ve been trying to buy the lows and sell the highs but as yet have not been able to succeed in either the puts or calls.  Unfortunately, this market has done exactly what I expected, but since it trades all around the world it’s been doing when our markets aren’t open.  Right now I would pay $1.55 for either the 8/126.50 calls or the 8/126.50 puts, and stop them out on a decline below $124.75 or above $127.60.  Anyone who knows me knows I really don’t care if I get the trade off or not, if I can’t do it at my price.

 

If we’re right on the US$, then the other trade would be in the Oil.  Today I sold the SCO, bought @ $89.28 @ $102.92.  Last night I said I’d sell it @ $105 or better but it is getting oversold and was down 4 days in a row and from $46 to $42.50.  I took the profit and will now see if it holds this important area of support.

 

We also sold COTV on a stop at the close today @ $23.84 for a $3.00 gain and we also added both AA @$10.43 and AA 8/10.50 calls @ $ .34.  The stock closed $10.65 and the calls @ $ .43.

 

 

 

CAM

 

 

 

 

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After close 7/25/2016

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

 

FOR TRADING JULY 26

 

 

The US$ was higher again today and that caused the oil and gold markets lower.  While the gold rallied a bit from its lows around the $1,310 area it closed about mid-range. The bottom of the Bollinger Bands now come in around $1,304 with further support to $1,295, so unless the US$ continues strong, we should see a bounce to $1,330-35. Hopefully this won’t happen in the middle of the night and we can participate. At this point I’m more likely to buy the GLD 8/126.50 CALLS @ $1.65 for the bounce. I will text tomorrow if I see an opportunity.

 

The oil had no such luck and while it tried to rally, it just couldn’t hold more than minor advances during the day and has now touched the area I have been talking about at the $43.00 level.  As I have been saying for a while now:

 

“As to the Oil, it continues to hold the lows @ $44.55-44.53 bottoms for the last 3 days. It continues to hold (which I strongly doubt), It could easily rebound to $46.00-46.50.

I would still buy the SCO anywhere near $89-89.50 looking for a move well into the high $90s to $100. Should it break $95, $105-$110 would be an easy shot.”

 

The SCO has moved from my last purchase price of $89.58 to close today @ $102.47 and I would consider it a sale above $105.  I can always rebuy it later.

 

The market internals again switched around with decliners outpacing advances by a ratio of 1859 to 1102 and volume 312MM down and 132MM up.  Any close below S&P500 2152.14 would force a test of 2100-2120.  I will also text an order if I see an opportunity for a low risk trade.

 

CAM

 

 

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7/22/2016

WEEKEND REVIEW

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

 

Weekly Review 7/22/2016

 

 

Again, the market internals reversed themselves on Friday stocks were up only marginally at the open and pretty much worked their way to the highs near the close. The Dow was up approx .29%, with the S&P500 up .46% with the advances and declines 2:1 on all the major indexes.

 

The US$ index moved up about .50% for the week closing on the highs @ 97.35.  This took a toll on the gold and again, we had no chance to short it as it hit the highs in the electronic session in the middle of the night.

 

As quoted from this yesterdays’ letter, “I expect that it will test $1,308 it may well test the bottom of the Bollinger Bands near 1,290-1295,”  the Gold did in fact test the $1,308 level with a low of $1,310 before rallying all the way back to close up $11.90 at $1,331 and $21 off the lows. I’m still not sure that the move is over to the upside but I’d clearly like to get off a short or buy some GLD put around the $1345-1350 area using the same stop as noted in our earlier notes vs $129.29 on close only stop.”

 

The best option for this would be the 8/125.50 puts in the $1.55 area. Unfortunately even though these option had closed offered @$1.55, that gapped up at the open and never traded below $1.93.  I’ll include a gold trade in the Sunday night letter.

 

As to the Oil, it broke the lows @ $44.55-44.53, bottoms for the last 3 days.If the US$ remains strong, both the oil and the gold should move lover. The only issue is that if the market declines the rush to US treasuries and gold could derail a decline. The oil may hold $43 and bounce, and although we have 2 long SCO positions in the $100,000 account even though we haven’t been able to trade it on these alerts. It is almost at my initial price objective of high $90s-$100.  If it breaks to the upside I will just use a trailing stop to let it run…

 

CAM

 

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

 

Weekly Review 7/22/2016

 

 

Again, the market internals reversed themselves on Friday stocks were up only marginally at the open and pretty much worked their way to the highs near the close. The Dow was up approx .29%, with the S&P500 up .46% with the advances and declines 2:1 on all the major indexes.

 

The US$ index moved up about .50% for the week closing on the highs @ 97.35.  This took a toll on the gold and again, we had no chance to short it as it hit the highs in the electronic session in the middle of the night.

 

As quoted from this yesterdays’ letter, “I expect that it will test $1,308 it may well test the bottom of the Bollinger Bands near 1,290-1295,”  the Gold did in fact test the $1,308 level with a low of $1,310 before rallying all the way back to close up $11.90 at $1,331 and $21 off the lows. I’m still not sure that the move is over to the upside but I’d clearly like to get off a short or buy some GLD put around the $1345-1350 area using the same stop as noted in our earlier notes vs $129.29 on close only stop.”

 

The best option for this would be the 8/125.50 puts in the $1.55 area. Unfortunately even though these option had closed offered @$1.55, that gapped up at the open and never traded below $1.93.  I’ll include a gold trade in the Sunday night letter.

 

As to the Oil, it broke the lows @ $44.55-44.53, bottoms for the last 3 days.If the US$ remains strong, both the oil and the gold should move lover. The only issue is that if the market declines the rush to US treasuries and gold could derail a decline. The oil may hold $43 and bounce, and although we have 2 long SCO positions in the $100,000 account even though we haven’t been able to trade it on these alerts. It is almost at my initial price objective of high $90s-$100.  If it breaks to the upside I will just use a trailing stop to let it run…

 

CAM

 

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7/21/2016

AFTER THE CLOSE

For Trading on July 22, 2016

 

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

 

Daily Commentary

 

 

The market internals reversed themselves on Thursday stocks were up only marginally at the open and pretty much worked their way lower until a rally in the last hour brought them to down to a relatively minor .36% in the S&P500 and .42%in the Dow.  The internals were roughly 1.5:1 down across all markets.

 

The US$ index slipped a bit when the market went “risk off” but just like the indexes rallied to close only down .26%.

 

As quoted from this mornings’ letter, “I expect that it will test $1,308 it may well test the bottom of the Bollinger Bands near 1,290-1295,”  the Gold did in fact test the $1,308 level with a low of $1,310 before rallying all the way back to close up $11.90 at $1,331 and $21 off the lows. I’m still not sure that the move is over to the upside but I’d clearly like to get off a short or buy some GLD put around the $1345-1350 area using the same stop as noted in our earlier notes vs $129.29 on close only stop.

 

The best option for this would be the 8/125.50 puts in the $1.55 area.

 

As to the Oil, it continues to hold the lows @ $44.55-44.53 bottoms for the last 3 days. If It continues to hold (which I strongly doubt), It could easily rebound to $46.00-46.50.

I would still buy the SCO anywhere near $89-89.50 looking for a move well into the high $90s to $100.  Should it break $95, $105-$110 would be an easy shot.

 

I would also place an order for AA anywhere near $10.26 OB, or the 8/$10.50 calls @ $ .33 OB.. CAM

 

 

 

 

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