After the close 1/18/2018GWO2.jpgGWO2.jpg

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

IBM Beats, No One Cared

FOR TRADING JANUARY 19th

 

Today’s action was remarkably “normal” with markets only slightly higher followed by lower followed by a close near the middle.  DJIA -97.84 (.37%), NASDAQ -2.23, S&P 500 -4.35 and the Russell -9.93(.63%). The 10-yr notes closed up at 2.62%, a new recent high and the just a couple of Dow stocks making up the whole loss.  The big leader, BA, took a break and accounted for $74.98, GS, HD, and MMM were all drags today.  Market internals on the NYSE were 2:1 down volume and almost 3:1 A/D, while over on the NASDAQ volume was actually slightly better than 1:1 while the A/D was 9:5 to the negative.  Fortunately, GE has a very small effect on the Dow since it fell to $16.77- .58 or another 3.4% to a new 6 year low. It has fallen from $19.29 (13.5%) in the past week.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, earnings abound again with the notable first time in 24 quarters IBM actually beat by a penny and revenues grew 4%.  The stock, which has had a run from $139 in August to a recovery high of $171(23%) is currently down $8.05 (5%).  AXP also reported with a loss in the quarter, suspended its buy back and is currently down $2.50.  Other earnings were posted by ESIO +4.26 (19%), AA with a loss was -$4 (7%), ALB missed and closed -$9 (7%) after being down $14, and LIVE beat and was +2.38 (16%) after being up as much as $6.

 

RETAIL, rebounded again today with slight gains across the board. M +.26, JWN +.25, KSS +.26, DDS +.13, SHLD +.16 (4.5%), JCP-.01, WMT +1.50, TJX +.67, TGT +1.03, UAA --.18, RL +3.92 (3.7%), and XRT +.13.

 

FAANG , stocks were generally lower with GOOGL -4.16, AMZN -2.92, FB +1.95, AAPL unchanged, NFLX +2.50, TSLA -2.05, NVDA -.63, BA -11.32 (3.2%), BIDU -.94, IBM -6 (earnings), BABA +.28, and XLK +.12.

 

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed with GS -2.79, JPM +.12, BAC +.25, C -.22, PNC -1.21,

AXP (earnings) -2.16, and XLF -.10.

 

Bitcoin, was higher today gaining $970 to move back to $11,790 but is lower tonight @ $11270 -520. The stocks were generally higher with RIOT +2.04, MARA +.28, GBTC +221 (13%), OSTK -4.40, BTSC +.02, NETE -.15, LFIN+6.08 (15.8%), TEUM -.01, COGT +.25, LBCC +.30, KODK +.65 and XNET +.32.

 

OIL, $63.89-.03 continues in a holding pattern but feels a bit heavy to me.  I bought 300 SCO (3X inverse ETF) @ $21.70 and I’m looking for a break below $62/87 for a correction.  The trade is relatively low risk, but I am keeping a very close eye on it.  The stocks were universally lower with CVX -.77, APC -.87, COP -.10, PSX -.87, MPC -.49, MRO -.15, RIG -.26, OAS -.10, OXY -.47, XOM -.78, HES -.18 and XLE -.76.

 

METALS, Gold was lower overnight and followed thru today closing $1,327-12, with Silver following the lead to $16.954 -.212, while Copper was + .01 at just under $3.20.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/17/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

GE, Still Viable and Valuable ??

FOR TRADING JANUARY 18th

 

Today’s action show everyone that “sell the rips and buy the dips” is still the order of the day.  Today’s all-time highs were pretty spectacular when viewed beside yesterday’s reversal with no follow thru this morning. DJIA +322.79 (1.25%), NASDAQ +74.59 (1.03), S&P500 +26.14 (.94%), the Russell +13.69 (.87%) and the Transports the only laggard +32 (.02%).  Internals were the reversal of yesterday with both volume and A/D 2:1 positive. All that said, the gains today were clearly on the back of BA, IBM, HD, MMM, and UNH.  BA was 108 Dow points all by itself.  Call me crazy, but this is a market that I will be keeping position sizes small and will step aside whenever I feel uncomfortable.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, as I mentioned both here and on my radio show, GE has some real problems that fall into the category of “unknowable.”  This is the same scenario as the financials found themselves in 2011-2012 when the government was using the big banks as ATMs.  Every couple of days Treasury, or DOJ, or the SEC was announcing another fine or special charge that cost the banks billions of dollars (BAC paid $80B alone).  I would hear from talking heads and analysts quote the discount to book value or tangible book as the way to value these companies, and I would think, “How can they quote book when tomorrow there may be another multi-billion charge”?  This is the way I’m looking at GE.  Yesterdays $6.2 Billion charge was double expectations and those go back to operations in 2004-5, and frankly, how do we know there were other charges to surface.  For this reason I can’t get behind GE.  While they are still a manufacturer and seller of goods, the charges that will come from the sales of some of those divisions are a huge question mark.

 

RETAIL, rebounded with slight gains across the board. M +.32, JWN +.79, KSS +1.10, DDS +1.58, SHLD -.01, JCP +.03, WMT +2.00, TJX -.01,TGT +1,86, LB -.04 UAA -.01, RL +1.63 SIG -1.15 and XRT +.46.

 

FAANG, it was a mixed day with some follow thru and some gains.  GOOGL +8.40, AMZN -10.35, FB -.84, AAPL +3.01 after being lower all day until it made the announcement of 20,000 new jobs over 5 years and bonuses for employees and paying the treasury $38Billion in penalties for bringing back its foreign funds, NFLX -4.03, TSLA +7.04, NVDA +4.24, BA +16.14 (4.8%), BIDU -1.99, IBM +4.95 (3%, earnings tomorrow after the close), BABA +1.43, and XLK +.95.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed to higher with GS -4.71 (1.8%) on earnings miss, JPM +.68, BAC -.04, but on the highs of the day, C +.34 we bought some calls near the close, PNC 1.97, and XLF +.07, and we are long these also.

 

Bitcoin, was lower again today breaking to the $10,000 level before closing $10,830 – 380 but ¾ up on the range.  Tonight it’s moving slightly higher @ $11,370 +540.  The stocks were lower with OSTK the only winner on my watch-list +5.40 (7.6%).

 

OIL, has held in really well consolidating its gains.  A look at the daily chart shows several legs higher over a day or 2 followed by 3-4 trading days of testing the move followed by another leg higher.  The difference here is that the daily ranges are bigger and while it may be topping (we own a small position in the inverse ETF) we could just as easily see another break towards $67-68.  The point I’m keying off is a close under $62.87.

 

 

I want to take a few minutes to go over some of the rules so that new subscribers are up to date with our methodology.

 

Rule One: 100% Up Rule, Anytime a position moves up 100% you MUST sell half.

Rule Two:  50% Down Rule, Anytime a position loses 50% you MUST liquidate.

Rule Two A:  If you have sold half on a 100% Up Rule you should raise the stop to                  a “cost plus commissions” stop so that you preserve the 2nd portion gains.

 

Options description for ALERTS:

All regular options expire on the 3rd Fridays of the month.  They are signified as the stock symbol + the # of the month and the price.. GRPN 2/6 is Groupon Feb. $6 option.

There are other stocks that have options that expire weekly, for example we bought on alert this afternoon C (Citigroup) 2/2 78 calls @ $1.02.  Those are signified as C 2/2 78 calls.  They expire on February 2nd.

Position size: $100M is the $100,000 stock and option account,

                         Options is the $10,000 options only account.

 

I hope this makes clear these issues.  If not, feel free to email me any questions at INFO@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/16/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

A Pullback ???

FOR TRADING JANUARY 17th

 

Today’s action was typical of a market that is finally running out of rocket fuel.  I wouldn’t call it “the” top, but it may be a short-term pullback.  We sold our AAPL calls (first half @ $3.20 on 100% Up Rule) and the balance at $4.27.  They closed $1.97.  We also got stopped out of a few longs on 50% down rule with losses of under $210, and bought some SPY 1/278 puts and lost half of those to 100% Up Rule 2 hours later for a nice gain and we are holding the second half for tomorrow.  In watching the tape (like the dinosaur I am) I was surprised by the number of stocks down 8-10% without news, just profit taking.  The market internals were solidly 2:1 down on both volume and A/D on both markets.  Any market that can move from the 25,000 level to 26,000 in 7 trading days deserves a rest.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, earnings continue and surprises abound.  C beat some drastically lowered expectations and rallied slightly after the Friday numbers on WFC and PNC and JPM all beat.  Jamie Dimon said the new tax laws will mean better profits for JPM.  CSX reported after the close and while beating on bottom line ($.42 vs .36 est.) but missed on revenues and fell about $1.00.  Away from earnings we had JUNO +$19.50 after the close on news that CELG is a buyer, and lastly, GE surprised everyone with an additional $6.2Billion charge (expected to be $3B) drove the stock lower by .55 (2.9%) after being down 4.5%.

 

RETAIL, was lower with not a single name that I follow showing any green.  UAA was downgraded from neutral to underperform and was $13.83 – 1.29 (8.5%), M -.97, JWN -1.64. KSS -.46, DDS-2.19, SHLD -.08, JCP -.24 (5.9%), WMT-.07, TJX-1.77, TGT 1.95 and XRT-1.02 (2.1%).

 

FAANG, it was a day of reversals pretty much across the board with GOOGL high 1148 close 1127-2.76, AMZN high 1339, close 1299 -6.20, fb high 181.75 close 178 -1.35, AAPL high 179.39 close 175.75 -1.34, NFLX high 226.07, close 220.43 -.80, TSLA +3.28, NVDA , high 227 close 218.75 -4.23, BA high 347.73 close 335.32 -.90, BIDU +4.74, IBM 163.87 +.73, BABA high 191.74 close 182.65 -5.14, and XLK -.26.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed to higher with GS +1.21, JPM-.37, BAC +.13, C +.21, PNC +1.17, and XLF -.08.

 

METALS, Gold, closed up $2.9 after a solid day with higher high and low.  It is up another $6.9 tonight at $1,344.  We are on track to test $1350-60. Silver was also higher by $ .04 and tonight is $ .12 higher at $17.30.  It continues to underperform but continues to trend higher.  Copper tried the upside again but couldn’t hold the gains and finished unchanged and near the lows of the day.

 

Bitcoin, was lower again today breaking to the $11,000 level before closing $11,010 - $2,700., and is trading another $350 higher tonight after trading $10,000. The stocks were lower with RIOT -3.63, MARA -.49, GBTC -234, OSTK -8.45, NETE -1.71, LFIN -4.53, KODK -.70 and IZEA -.43.  These were all down between 10-15%.

 

BIO/PHARMA, a group that I have discussed in the Weekly Strategies that seems to have trouble having a “group” move.  The stocks were generally mixed with CELG -2.25, BIIB +.05, AMGN -.53, REGN +3.25, ALXN +1.77, VRTX -2.22, ISRG +1.03, ICPT -1.77, INCY -1.77, SRPT -1.37 GILD +1.08 and IBB -.68.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the day off 1/15/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

FOR TRADING JANUARY 16th

 

Good afternoon everyone.  There wasn’t any market today but there was action in the electronic session for the futures.  They only traded until 12:00 PM Central time and they were mostly higher due to some continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar.

 

So, here’s the list:

 

US$ down against all other currencies

Bitcoin: CBOE (1/ contract)   $14,042 +232

                   CME (5/ contract)   $13,920 -50

 

Oil $64.81 +.51

Bonds / notes: all a few ticks lower

 

S & P 500 +5.75

NASDAQ  +5.00

DJIA  +136

 

GOLD  + $5.60

Silver   +$ .229

Copper  + $ .425

 

I can’t tell you what is up in the DJIA that is causing the outsized gains there but we’ll know first thing in the morning.

 

Remember that the futures open again tonight and can further the gains or sell them off between now and the morning opening in NY.

 

Hope all had a good long weekend.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 1/11/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Another Monster Day

FOR TRADING JANUARY 12th

 

Today’s action was a slow build early and then a quick run into the close.  The market was dominated by move higher in BA (53 Dow points), CAT (23), CVX (26), and HD (20) while there were only 4 DJIA stocks lower.  Market internals were solid with NYSE $:1 volume and 3.6:1 A/D, while over on the NASDAQ we were 3:1 for both sides.  The DJIA was +2.5 (.81%), NASDAQ +58.21 (.81%), S&P 500 +19.33 (.70%) and the Russell +26.99 (1.7%) and the biggest winner, DJ Transports +253 (2.3%).

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, earnings continue to surprise to the upside, KBH continued higher today after the report last night and finished the day $38.58 +4.23 (12.3%), DAL beat and closed $58.52 +2.66(4.7%).  On the Crypto group MGI announced a partnership with IBM, Stellar, and Ripple and traded up to $13.74 before closing $12.18+.06 on the news. The solar stocks also moved higher with FSLR +6.63 (9.5%), SPWR +.98 (11.5%), and CSIQ +.37 (2.2%).  This group gets a boost after the surge in oil as it becomes a financial alternative to higher prices, and also in the rotation of groups that haven’t had major moves yet.

 

Oil, $63.80+.23 after peaking today with a print at $64.77. I’m not using the word peaking to denote that the move is over, just that it has had a great run and a move back to $62-62.50 would be a normal and expectable pullback.  The stocks were all higher with CVX leading the way +3.90 (3% and 26 Dow points), APC +3.09 (5.5%), COP +1.55, BP =.35, PSX +.29, MPC +.74, MRO +.70, RIG +.32, OAS +.53 (6%), OXY +1.57, XOM+.90, HES +1.72 and XLE +1.63 (2.1%).

 

RETAIL, was universally higher with M +.66, JWN+.89, KSS +2.06, DDS +2.53, SHLD +.02, JCP +.09, WMT +.53 with a raise for employees and a bonus of $1000 for 20 year employees (there are over 80,000 of them), LB +1.68, TGT+3.28(4.6%), TJX +.61, and XRT +1.21(2.6%).

 

FAANG, it was a quiet day for this group with the exception of AMZN +22.35 (2%), GOOGL +1.91, FB +-.02, AAPL +1.00, NFLX +4.73, TSLA +2.92, NVDA ++.31, BA +7.54 (2.3%), BIDU +1.21, IBM -.13, BABA -1.05 and XLK +.25.  These names are only slightly underperforming the rest of the market after being the darlings, and the rotation will come back to them.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed to higher with GS +.97, JPM +.75, BAC +.12, C -.09, PNC +2.38 and XLF +.14.  We sold our $.42 calls at $ .99 and rolled forward to the 2/29 calls @ $ .52, and they closed $ .56.  This group has several earnings reports tomorrow, so we’ll see how the higher rates guide guidance going forward.

 

METALS, Gold, closed up $3.2 after an “inside” day.  Even though it is not the high trade in this consolidation, it is the highest close since the decline in September. Silver continued to underperform and closed $16.96 -$ .069 Copper tried the upside to $3.25 but closed mid-range and down the day.

 

Bitcoin, was lower again today breaking the $13,000 barrier before closing $13,425 - $1,055, and is trading another $350 lower tonight. The stocks were lower with the exception of OSTK +.30, RIOT -1.93, MARA -.14, GBTC-253 (13%), NETE +.18, LFIN-5.27 (11%), TEUM-.05, FTFT-.15, CNET +1.18 (24%), LBCC -.08, and yesterday’s big winner, KODK which traded as high as $13.28, closed the day $8.40-2.30 (21.5%) and is $8.10 tonight -.30.

 

BIO/PHARMA, a group that I discussed in the Weekly Strategies this week that has been mixed.  It amazes me that these stocks haven’t been putting together multiple gains or losses.  Today was no different with CELG -.76, BIIB -3.65, AMGN -1.21, REGN +1.80, VRTX +1.02, ISRG-2.39, ICPT-.29 INCY -2.85 (we bought @ $100.63), SRPT-.54 MYL +2.32 (5.3%), LABU +1.79 (3x leveraged ETF), and IBB +.32.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/10/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

FOR TRADING JANUARY 11th

 

Today’s action looked better than I think it actually was.  The DJIA closed well off the lows with the DJIA -16.67, NASDAQ -10.01, S&P 500 -3.06, Russell -.30 and the Transports the standout + 10.  The market internals were a different story with volume running roughly 1:1 while the A/D were 9:5 negative on the NYSE and 11:10 NASDAQ. Even BA couldn’t bail us out today.

 

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, we had earnings from KBH after the close and they beat causing a rally from its close $34.35 to $35.99.  Last was $35.55 +1.20 (3.5%).  LEN missed but guidance was better and after moving lower (65.35) it finished the day $67.26 +1.59 (2.4%). UAL had good numbers and finished $73.08 +4.60 (6.7%) and DAL who reports tomorrow followed the lead and was +1.69 (3.1%).

 

Oil, $63.57 +.61 gapped up a bit to $63.09 and traded as high as $63.67, a new recovery high and closed strong.  The stocks were mixed again with CVX +.82, APC -.11, COP -.28, BP +.13, PSX +.36, MPC +.51, MRO -.14, RIG -.23, OAS +.11, OXY -.64, XOM-.69, HES +.54 and XLE -.09.  This sector looks vulnerable and I believe we will have another pullback, and I will probably buy some SCO (3X short oil ETF).

 

RETAIL, was mostly higher with JWN reporting good numbers for the last quarter and SHLD having a declined between 16-17% but being able to raise $100MM and looking for an additional $200MM. The positive for this company, which I still think is terminal was a savings of $200MM from store closings.  Using this business model, the company will only survive once it closes all of its stores. The biggest loser was SIG, which we have been short on and off for the last 2 years from $134 to a low of $46 last June, and long a few times for counter-trend rallies. SIG was $52.69 -3.90 (6.9%) and looks like it may make a new lower low.  This company has a dramatically bad reputation, questionable accounting for their internal financing and the dubious distinction of having the most consumer complaints of any U.S. company.  The rest of the group was higher with M +.90, JWN +1.31, KSS +1.73, DDS +2.39,JCP +.23 (6.2%), WMT -.72, TJX +.77, TGT +1.63 and XRT +.33.

 

FAANG, it was a quiet day for this group with GOOGL -2.85, AMZN +2.12, FB unchanged, AAPL -.03, NFLX +3.21, TSLA +.61, NVDA +2.51, BA +2.52, BIDU -5.78, IBM +.57, BABA -1.18 and XLK -.23.

 

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with the 10yr trying 2.6% this morning on the news that China making statements about stopping buying U.S. treasuries.  The 10yr had a strong auction today and the yields came back in to the 1.55 level.  The stocks were higher from the open and stayed that way most of the day.  There was some minor profit taking but they were all higher at the close.  GS +.39, JPM +1.30, BAC +.29, C +.44, PNC +2.18, and XLF +.29.  Our position in the XLF calls closed $ .90 ($.42 cost).

 

METALS, Gold, as I discussed last night, I was looking for a pullback to $1,300-1,310. Unfortunately the metal moved lower to $1,308 while we slept and by 5:00AM it had climbed straight back to $1,328 before closing here $1,319 +$5.60   Silver rallied also but closed barely changed @ $17.03 +.02. Copper tried the upside to $3.27 but closed ¾ down the range.

 

Bitcoin, was quietly lower all day and after testing $13,560 it closed $14,490 – 300. The stocks were mixed with RIOT -1.01, MARA +.24, GBTC -199, OSTK -1.15, NETE -.05, LFIN -1.88, IMUC -.005, TEUM +.34, FTFT +.01, COGT +.50 (10%), LBCC -.25 and the new addition, KODK +4.10 (60%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, a group that I discussed in the Weekly Strategies this week that has been mixed.  CELG +.14, BIIB +.36, AMGN -.52, VRTX +1.37, ICPT +1.59, INCY +.31, SRPT +2.95, ONCE +1.37  and the standout, ISRG +26.16 (6.6%) an alltime new high of guidance for the coming year.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/9/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

FOR TRADING JANUARY 10th

 

Today’s action looked better than I think it actually was.  The DJIA closed mid-range and up $102.80 (.41%) and the S&P500 +3.58 (.13%), NASDAQ +6.19, while the Russell -1.71 and the Transports +20.  On the NYSE the volume was slightly negative while the A/D was 1.5:1 negative.  Over on the NASDAQ both were right near 1:1, but just negative.  Add to that the gains on the DJIA was over half BA, a great company, but one that was +90% in 2017 and another 8% this first 2 weeks of the year.

 

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, Here’s a name that most people thought was gone forever that sprang to life today, Eastman Kodak, you may remember that it was a Dow stock with the symbol EK.  I fell on hard times when it, like Bell and Howell didn’t see the writing on the wall and didn’t believe the threat of digital photography.  Bell & Howell now makes flashlights and EK (now KODK) has thrown its hat into the Blockchain ring.

The company emerged from bankruptcy in 2011 and the stock, reissued @ $26.50 and started today down about 90% at $3, made its Crypto-currency debut for their IMAGES Platform. Low and behold, Wall Street noticed and it ran to $9.50 and is trading $8.70 + 5.60 or just 180%. The company used to have 140,000 employees and was worth $30 Billion, current market cap $300Million.

 

Oil, $62.96+1.23 after trading as high as $63.48, above the highs of 2015, we closed strong.   This has moved 140+% from its $26 low in February 2016.  I have stayed away from the short side of oil since I took an $84 loss on a day trade on 11/3/17 at the $51 level. I’m taking a hard look at the short side and will probably trade SCO (3X short ETF) in the very near future.  The stocks were mixed today since these companies are more than just oil price sensitive with CVX -.69, APC+.33, COP +.47, BP -.16, PSX -.34, MPC -.44, MRO +.14, RIG +.23, OAS +.15, OXY -.30, XOM -.08, HES +.26 and XLE -.04.

 

RETAIL, was mixed with the notable exception of TGT +1.98 on earnings while M +.22, JWN -.97, KSS+.18, DDS +.99, SHLD (terminal) -.31 (9%), WMT -1.24, TJX -.15, LB another 1.26, and UAA-.87 (5.4% on a downgrade) and XRT -.49.

 

FAANG, were also mixed today with the focus being on BA and some of the other industrials.  GOOGL -2.90, AMZN +5.86, FB -.69, AAPL-.35, BFLX-3.15, TSLA -3.97, NVDA -.50, BA +8.05, BIDU +3.18, IBM +.43, BABA +.37 and XLK -.17.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with the 10yr solidly over 2.5%, even with the downgrades of GS, JPM, and MS.  GS was +2.53, JPM+.51, BAC +.16, C+ .78, PNC+2.32 and XLF +22.  We also sold half of our XLF1/28 calls (bot @ $ .42) at $ .71.

 

METALS, Gold, as discussed last night has pulled back toward the $1,300-1,310 range. It traded down to $1,309 before rebounding to close $1,313 -7.  I’m still looking to find a buy point but it will have to hold $1,300-1,315. Silver followed the gold down to $16.94 and rallied to close today @ $17.01. Copper tried the upside to $3.26 but closed near the lows.  It looks to me it could now test $3.18-3.20.  We bought some SCCO 1/48 puts @ $ .45 to take advantage of the move.

 

Bitcoin, was lower and after an inside day with its typical $1,000 range. Tonight it is quiet with a range of $14,650 to $13,980 and is currently $14,270 -540.  The stocks were mixed with RIOT +.87, MARA -.14, GBTC -44.73, OSTK -5.65 (6.5%), BTSC -.02, NETE +.36, LFIN-2.96 (5.7%), TEUM -.42 (16%), FTFT -.08, COGT +.05, CNET-.15, LBCC +.94 (19%), and our new entry, KODK which closed $6.80 is currently $9.10 +6 (193%).

 

BIO/PHARMA, a group that I discussed in the Weekly Strategies this week that has been consolidating had some dramatic moves based on information shared at the JP Morgan Conference.  CELG +1.31, BIIB +6.71, AMGN +2.78, REGN -3.87, VRX-.81, ISRG +5.74, my favorite, INCY -4.52 and we bought the stock in the $100M account @ $100.63.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/8/018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JANUARY 9th

 

Today’s action was split between the DJIA -12.94 after a move higher at the open and down as much as about $60, S&P500 +4.56 (.17%), NASDAQ +20.83 (.29%), the Russell +1.80 (.12%) and the DJ Transports the clear leader + $84.79 (.78%).   Market internals were positive with NYSE and NASDAQ volume slightly better than 1:1 and A/D 5:3 NYSE and a solid 1:1 NASDAQ.  Pretty good numbers for an overbought general market.  Bio / Pharma got battered with the opening of the important JP Morgan conference.  This is usually the place that outlooks get reported and M&A get announced.  It was pretty ugly, but I will discuss this in the Sector review.                 .

 

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, the start of earnings season is again upon us (seems like it never ends) and today’s disaster du jour was GPRO with Nick Woodman, CEO trying to make it look better than it is, and failing in dramatic fashion.  For those of us who can recall Welcome Back Kotter, I’d never count on anyone named Mr. Woodman.  He gave poor guidance, a paring of workforce, and put the company up for sale.  Needless to say, even with its rally off the low of $5.04 to close $6.56 - .96(12.8%) it wasn’t a pleasant day for shareholders.  Woodman controls the voting stock (which BTW he sold a sizable piece in the $90s) and the stock has never looked back.  Five Below, FIVE, was also negative on guidance and broke its uptrend and was – 5.42 (7.5%), and Dave $ Busters (PLAY), a company I didn’t understand the attraction to 10 years ago also issued terrible guidance and closed on its low -12.58 (23%).  This growth oriented market, there is no forgiving bad numbers.

 

Oil, $61.73 +.29 had an inside day and they “couldn’t take it down early so they took it up”).  We are in an area of overhead resistance from the small consolidation on the move lower (April-June 2015).  The stocks were slightly higher with CVX +.63, APC =.37, COP +1.02, BP -.02, PSX -.10, MPC +.05, MRO +.08, RIG +.22, OAS -.05, OXY +.64, XOM +.39, HES +.33, and .45.

 

RETAIL, was mixed with M -.04, JWN +.02, KSS +2.54 (4.7%), DDS +1.74, SHLD -.19, JCP +.11, WMT +1.60, LB -1.72 adding to its decline from $63 to $48.64 (24%), URBN on news it grew 2% was a disappointment and fell to $28.85 before coming back a bit to $31.50 -2.24 (7%), TGT +.63, TJX -1.72 (3.4%) DKS -.70 and XRT -.06.

 

FAANG, were also mostly higher with GOOGL +1.71, AMZN +17.73, FB +1.16, AAPL -.45, NFLX +1.80, TSLA +19.78 (6.2%), NVDA +6.10, BA +1.31, BIDU +5.68, IBM +1.16, BABA -.40 and XLK +.25.

 

FINANCIALS, were lower with GS -3.75, JPM +.28, BAC -.21, C -.68, PNC +.27 and XLF -.07.

 

METALS, Gold like the oil was an inside day where they just couldn’t get going in either direction. It traded down to $1,315 before rebounding to close $1,320 -2.00.  I’ll have to find a buy point but it will have to hold $1,300-1,315. Silver followed the gold down to $17.06 and rallied to close today @ $17.14.  While I’m not long any calls, I am long AGQ (3X leveraged ETF) and SLV in our stock / options account.  Copper has been the star with a steady climb from $2.93 to test $3.30 today but closed near the lows.  It looks to me it could now test $3.18-3.20.  We bought some SCCO 1/48 puts @ $ .45 to take advantage of the move.

 

Bitcoin, was lower and after testing $13,800 it came back a bit to close $14,905 -$1,685 (10%).  It is $14,610 -290 now.  The stocks were lower with RIOT -1.18, MARA - .04, GBTC -131.88 (5.6%), OSTK +1.65, NETE -.74, LFIN -2.70 (5%), LTEA-.34, TEUM -.18, FTFT -.24 COGT +.35 (7.5%), CNET +.43 (7.5%), and a new name, who invested in Ripple, STX  46 +3.06 (7.4%) after trading $49.70.

 

BIO/PHARMA, a group that I discussed in the Weekly Strategies this week that has been consolidating had some dramatic moves based on information shared at the JP Morgan Conference.  The downside was the feature with BIIB -12.50, REGN -12.58, ALXN -3.10, CLVS -3.51, CELG -.81, ISRG (med instruments)+12.85, ICPT -4.21 (7.3%), ABBV -1.66 and BRTX +1.20.  My favorite, INCY tested $99 and I tried to buy some Jan 105 calls to no avail, so I bought the stock in the $100M account @ $100.63, we closed 100.81 +.96 but is trading $102 tonight.  I’ll have to find a different option to buy.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/4/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

New Highs Abound !!

 

FOR TRADING JANUARY 5th

 

Today’s action was higher from the start with a narrow rally in 3 big DJIA names; GS (24 Dow pts), MMM (24), and IBM (22).  There were others like UNH, CAT, and AXP with just under double digit gains. This has been the rotation to 3 or 4 different leaders each day.  BA, on the other hand was finally slightly lower.  Market internals have been strong without getting excessive. The numbers that are shouting TOP—WATCH OUT BELOW !! are the A.A.I.I. Sentiment numbers.  Bulls are 59.8 +7.1%, Bears 15.6 -5.1, and Neutral 24.7 -2.  These are levels that just don’t occur without at least a correction.  On the positive side both David Tepper and Ralph Acampora both said today that they don’t see prices as expensive.  So, todays closings were DJIA +152.45 (.61%), NASDAQ +12.39 (.20%), S&P 500 +10.93 and the Russell +3.15 (.20%).

 

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, we had 3 new names in the “I’ll do anything to take advantage of Block chain technology”, COGT, traded much higher pre-market then had a high of $5.95 before closing $4.95 +.20 (4.2%), FTFT up from $1.50 to a high of $8 closed today $5.19 after trading $6.60, and I’ve saved the best for last; CNET, which is a killer combination of being both Chinese and Block chain, gapped open from yesterdays $1.17 to 2.84 before going as high as $11.90 before closing $9.34 +8.17 or 698%.

 

Oil, $62.01 +.38 moving to another new recovery high and another higher low for the day continues to hold the gains and work its way higher. These prices are not just recent highs but rather are just short of the May 2015 when it rallied after dropping from $105. Natural gas has firmed with the extreme cold in the middle of the country and the northeast.  However, the February natural gas was $2.88 -.128 on drawdowns less than expected.  The energy stocks were mostly higher with CVX -.40, APC +1.09, COP +.58, BP +.13, PSX -.28, MPC +.07, MRO +.45, RIG +.66 (5.9%) possibly because of the opening up of both Pacific and Atlantic coasts for drilling, OAS +.01, OXY -.04, HES +1.23 and XLE +.45.

 

RETAIL, was lower with several names giving the holiday report with gains of around 1%, BUT margins getting crushed.  Also, several names came out with additional store closures.  The biggest loser was L BRANDS , LB -7.16 (12.3%), M -1.28, JWN-.59, KSS -.98, DDS -2.13, SHLD -.11 (2.9%), JCP -.01, TGT -1.27, TJX +.12, DKS +.44, and XRT -.33.

 

FAANG, were also mostly higher with GOOGL +4.24, AMZN +5.24, FB -.19, AAPL +.97, NFLX +.60, TSLA -2.75 after being down almost $10 lower, NVDA +1.29, BA -1.13, BIDU +.18, BABA +1.70, IBM +3.52 on upgrades, and XLK +.47.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher across the board with GS +3.55 (23 Dow points), JPM +1.56 (only 7 Dow), BAC +.49, C +.92, PNC +1.08, and XLF +.30 and our position in XLF calls $ .53 +.16 (43%).

 

METALS, Gold had the pullback I was looking for but unfortunately it occurred while we were asleep.  It traded down to $1,307 before rebounding to open basically unchanged followed by a rally to $1,327 and closing $1,321 +$3.1.  I’ll have to find a buy point. Silver followed the gold down to $17.02 and rallied to close today @ $17.27.  While I’m not long any calls, I am long AGQ (3X leveraged ETF) and SLV in our stock / options account.  Copper has been the star with a steady climb from $2.93 to test $3.30 today but closed near the lows.  It looks to me it could now test $3.18-3.20.  We bought some SCCO 1/48 puts @ $ .45 to take advantage of the move.

 

Bitcoin, was very quiet again today with minor changes The stocks were mostly lower with RIOT +.14, MARA -.11, GBTC -.53, OSTK +6.25 (8.4%)BTSC -.01, NTET -.61, LFIN -1.51, IMUC -.01, LTEA -.23, , TEUM -.06, and the new 3 listed above.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/2/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Follow-thru for the Rally

 

FOR TRADING JANUARY 4th

 

Today’s action was higher from the start with the NASDAQ leading the way.  We closed out trades of HOG puts, AAPL calls and a long position in AMBA stock.  We also re-entered the AAPL with a higher strike and the HOG with a lower strike.  I want to take a second to remind everyone about the rules for trading based on my alerts.  We have only 2 rules and we stick to regardless of circumstances; the 100% Up Rule dictates that when a position goes up 100% YOU MUST SELL HALF  (taking your money out of the trade) , and the 50% Down Rule to sell if a position declines by half.  So, back to the markets with DJIA +98.87 (.40%), NASDAQ +58.63 (.84%), S&P 500 +17.25 (.64%), RUSSELL +2.56 (.17%) and the Transports, which were lower at -43 early closed +10.  The internals were solid without being excessive with the NYSE 1.5:1 volume and 4:3 A/D, while the NASDAQ ran ahead again at 2:1 and 3:2 respectively.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, one of today’s big stories was the INTC announcement about a flaw in some chips and the stock was as low as 43.65 but came back and closed -1.59 (3.4%) and is slightly lower in late trading.  AMD was higher at the close +.57 (5.2%), MU was +1.31 (3%), TXN +2.86 (2.7%) to a new high while INTC said it is not just their problem.  A late earnings report by ZUMZ sent that stock which closed 20.50 +.50 is currently trading $23.50 +3.00 (15%).  

 

Oil, $61.88 +1.51 moving to a new recovery high and another higher low for the day continues to hold the gains and work its way higher. These prices are not just recent highs but rather are just short of the May 2015 when it rallied after dropping from $105. Natural gas has firmed with the extreme cold in the middle of the country and the northeast.  The February natural gas was $3.01-.047.  The energy stocks were higher across the board again with CVX +.87, APC unchanged, COP +1.02, BP +.59, PSX +.68, MPC +1.43, MRO +.29, RIG +.26, OAS + .24, OXY +1.02, XOM +1.66, HES +1.55, and XLE +1.08 (1.4%).

 

RETAIL, was lower with only JCP +.20 (5.8%) the exception.  M -.27, JWN -.47, KSS -.89, DDS -1.24, SHLD -.02, TJX -1.38, TGT -.45, DKS +.79 and the XRT -.03.

 

FAANG, were also higher with GOOGL +18.31, AMZN +14.49, FB +3.11, AAPL -.26, NFLX +3.81, TSLA  closed $317.25 -3.28, reported lower deliveries of the Model 3 and the stock is 5 more lower in late trading, NVDA +14.84 (7.4%), BIDU +3.15, BABA +.27, BA +.49, IBM +4.11, and XLK +.56.

 

FINANCIALS, were unimpressive again today with GS -2.38, JPM -.17, BAC -.13, C +.24, PNC -.03 and XLF +.11.  Our XLF calls closed .37 +7.

 

METALS, GOLD was higher early today hitting the upper end of my projections and closed $9 off the highs at $1,314. As I’ve said, I sold too soon and I’m still looking for any selloff to reestablish a long position.  Silver is has quietly rallied to close today @ $17.17 -.03 and is $17.27 +10 in late trading.  While I’m not long any calls, I am long AGQ (3X leveraged ETF) and SLV in our stock / options account.  Copper has been the star with a steady climb from $2.93 to close today $3.25 and could now test $3.18-3.20.

 

Bitcoin, was very quiet today with minor changes The stocks were mostly lower with RIOT -3.40 (12%) we got stopped out yesterday on the above mentioned 50% Rule, MARA -.18, GBTC -6.50, CRCW MIGHT come back tomorrow, OSTK +6.60 (10%), BTSC -.02, NETE -1.18, LFIN -.40, IMUC -.0073, LTEA +.39 and TEUM +.19 (7.4%).

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 1/2/2018

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

A Happy Start to the New Year

 

FOR TRADING JANUARY 3RD

 

Today’s action was straight up for all markets.  By the end of the day we had new highs across the board with DJIA  not at the highs but still +104.79 (.42%), NASDAQ +103.52 (1.5%) and the first time over 7,000, S&P500 +22.20 (.83%), the Russell +14.50 (.94%) and the star of the day, the Transports +198.25 (1.88%).  The internals were solid with 2.5:1 volume and 3:2 A/D on the NYSE and 4:1 and 2:1 respectively on NASDAQ.  Clearly the FAANG stocks rushed back into favor.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, One of today’s big gainers was the SMH (semiconductor ETF) was higher by 2.56 (2.62%) with MU +2.55 (6.2%), AMD +.70 (6.8%), INTC +.69 (1.5%), and TXN +1.13 (1.1%).  We bought 150 MU @ $41.41 and I will issue a stop tomorrow.  Another name that gets a seasonal move, WTW $47.72 +3.44 (7.8%) has a stated short interest of 12%, plus roughly 16% held by Oprah Winfrey makes this especially volatile on any news.

 

 

Oil, $60.37 -.05  after moving as high as $60.74 with another recovery high and a higher low for the day continues to hold the gains and work its way higher. The natural gas has firmed with the extreme cold in the middle of the country and the northeast.  The February natural gas was $3.056 +.103 or 3.4%.  The energy stocks were higher across the board again with CVX +2.37, APC +1.13, COP +.59, BP +.38, PSX +.60, MPC +1.20, MRO +.45, OAS +.16, OXY +.63, XOM +1.36, HES +.38 and XLE +1.17 (1.6%).  The oil futures are currently 60.45 +.08.

 

RETAIL, continued higher with M +1.11, JWN +1.74, KSS +2.12, DDS ++.57, SHLD +.20 (5.9%), JCP +.40 (12.6%) WMT +.50, TJX +.23, TGT +2.45 (3.75%) on rumors of AMZN buying them this year, TPR +1.03, DKS +.75, and XRT +.83 (1.8%).

 

FAANG, were also higher with GOOGL +19.78, AMZN +16.73, FB +4.99, AAPL +2.80, NFLX +9.09 (4.75%) on AAPL/NFLX combination,  TSLA +9.16, NVDA +8.93, BIDU +8.34, BABA +11.46 (6.6%), BA +1.84, IBM +.84 and XLK +.79 (1.23%).

 

FINANCIALS, were unimpressive even with the 10yr Treasury almost 2.5%.  GS +.81, JPM +1.06, BAC +.36, C -.06, PNC +.33, and XLF -.06.

METALS, GOLD was higher again today closing at $1,316 + 7, and is trading now just over $1,321.  Clearly I underestimated the strength and sold out too early.  Silver is has quietly rallied to close today @ $17.21 +6 and is $17.25 in late trading.  While I’m not long any calls, I am long AGQ (3X leveraged ETF) and SLV in our stock / options account.  Copper has been the star with a steady climb from $2.93 to close today $3.28.  The problem for me is that there are no pure plays in copper and while I traded SCCO last week, it’s just not an easy one to take advantage of the move.

 

Bitcoin, rallied from a low of -1500 to close +610 and is now $14,800 -260. The stocks were mostly higher with RIOT -1.25, MARA +.19, GBTC +245, CRCW (still suspended), OSTK +1.15, BTSC  -.006, NETE +2.86 (25%), LFIN +.73, IMUC +.027, LTEA +1.15  and TEUM +.57 (27%).

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 12/28/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

BORING !!

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 29TH

 

Today’s action was another example of “what if they gave a party and nobody came?”  Almost all of the action was the first 15 minutes of trading and the close.  Volume was again anemic and the internals were stronger with volume 2.5:1 on the NYSE and the A/D were 1.5:1.  The NASDAQ wasn’t quite as strong but it was positive with both volume and A/D both 1.5:1.  The DJIA had a last minute surge and finished +63.21, NASDAQ +10.82, S&P500 +4.92 and the Russell +4.99. Transports were the only down index -37.04.

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, One of today’s standouts was  again Energous Corp. After moving up 158% yesterday it closed $31.57 +7.87 (33%) with no further news other than the certification by the FCC for a wireless charging system that uses radio-frequency signals to charge small “enabled” devices like smartphones and earbuds. The company said that their device is the first to win approval under Part 18 of the FCC rules. Without much further guidance as to what other possible clearly the buyers think it has some big upside.

 

 

Oil, $59.89 +.25 after moving as high as $60.01 yesterday we had some early weakness, but after trying the lows from Wednesday it rallied back to the plus side. The action today was typical of a slow day with little profit taking.  If we hold over $58 we can see another leg up.  The stocks were mixed again with CVX +.03, APC -.02, COP -.41, BP +.15, PSX -.10, MPC -.02, MRO +.06, RIG _.01, OAS +.04, OXY +.38, XOM +.12, HES +.22 and XLE +.05.  The natural gas has firmed up with the extreme cold in the middle of the country and the northeast.  I’ll add a few names soon.

 

RETAIL, was lower across the board as the afterglow from the holiday activities. M +.08, JWN -.22, KSS -.61, DDS -.68, SHLD -.12 (3.4%), JCP -.01, WMT +.14, TJX -.59, TGT -.32 and XRT +.05.  The XRT is somewhat deceiving since it also includes stocks like HD that one would not equate with department store retailers.

 

FAANG, were mixed to slightly higher with GOOGL-5.80, AMZN +2.75, FB +.18, AAPL +.20, NFLX +6.57, TSLA +3.60, NVDA +.23, BA +.78, BIDU -3.11, BABA -.81, IBM +.93 and XLK +.11.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS +.55, JPM +.44, BAC +.05, C unch, PNC +.69, and XLF +.11.  Our XLF Jan 28 calls were .46 +.02.

 

METALS, GOLD was up overnight again and continued its run into what I consider some resistance just over $1,295 and I’m looking for some weakness or sideways action to re-establish a position for the New Year. Clearly I underestimated the strength and sold out too early.  Silver is has quietly rallied to close today @ $16.923 +.17.  While I’m not long any calls, I am long AGQ (3X leveraged ETF) and SLV in our stock / options account.  Copper has been the star with a steady climb from $2.93 to close today $3.29.  The problem for me is that there are no pure plays in copper and while I traded SCCO last week, it’s just not an easy one to take advantage of the move.

 

BITCOIN, was lower and I used the weakness to take a small position in RIOT January $31 calls @ $1.40.  The rest of the group was lower with RIOT -2.50 (8%), MARA -.33 (7%), GBTC -215 (10%), OSTK -2.55 (3.7%), BTSC -.02 (9.26%), NETE -.18, LFIN -3.62 (6%), IMUC +.03 (1%), LTEA +.42 (10%) and TEUM-.59 (23%).

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 12/27/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Why are we even Watching ??

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 28TH

 

Today’s action was an example of “what if they gave a party and nobody came?”  Watching paint dry is actually more eventful than today’s market in both volume and price movement. I can’t remember a less eventful day.  We opened slightly higher and the highs in the S& 500 was plus about $4 and the low unchanged and the close +2.12, while the DJIA was a similar short range and a close of +28.09.  NASDAQ was +3 and the Russell -.29.  Market internals were as boring as the moves with 1:1 volume and 5:4 A/D on both NYSE and NASDAQ. We bought some AAPL 1/172.50 calls @ $2.16.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, Today’s standout was NOT a Bitcoin or Block Chain stock but it had a monster move of $23.00 +14.16 (158%).  The company name is Energous Corp. and they had a certification by the FCC for a wireless charging system that uses radio-frequency signals to charge small “enabled” devices like smartphones and earbuds. The company said that their device is the first to win approval under Part 18 of the FCC rules.

 

Oil, $59.59-.38 after moving as high as $60.01 yesterday on the news of a pipeline problem in Libya we fell back to a low of $59.33 but closed just slightly lower.  The action today, after the move we’ve had this month from just under $56, is a normal and expectable pullback.  If we hold over $58 we can see another leg up.  The stocks were lower with CVX -.43, APC -.32, COP -.64, BP +.03, PSX +.42, MPC -.42, MRO -.25, RIG +.10, OAS -.06, OXY -.22, XOM -.08, HES-.32 and XLE -.25.

 

RETAIL, was lower across the board based on the reports of “competitive pricing,” discounts that cut into margins.  The biggest losers were M-1.21 (4.5%), KSS -1.58 (2.8%), DDS -1.63 (2.6%), while several big names, TJX -.48 (.6%), WMT +.10, TGT -.68 (1%) had smaller losses and XRT -.55 (1.2%).

 

FAANG, were mixed with GOOGL- 5.65, AMZN +5.68, FB +1.64, AAPL +.03, NFLX -1.52, TSLA -5.89, NVDA -.27, BA +.26, BIDU -.22, BABA +.71, IBM +.30 and XLK +.07.  We bought the AAPL calls on the weakness.

 

FINANCIALS, were also mixed with GS -1.77, JPM +.20, BAC -.04, C +.11, PNC +.08, and XLF +.03.  Our XLF calls were -.02, but slightly higher than we paid yesterday.

 

METALS, GOLD was up overnight again and continued its run into what I consider some resistance just over $1,294 and I’m looking for some weakness or sideways action to re-establish a position for the New Year. Silver is still unimpressive but it has quietly rallied to close today @ $16.75 +.15.  Copper has been the star with a steady climb from $2.93 to close today $3.256.  The problem for me is that there are no pure plays in copper and while I traded SCCO last week, it’s just not an easy one to take advantage of the move.

BITCOIN, No new name today in the Crypto-rush. The group (except CRCW-suspended) were mixed with RIOT -1.27, MARA +.21, GBTC -210 (9%), OSTK -1.35, BTSC -.01, NETE -1.85 (13.4%), LFIN +4.18 (7.6%) and being touted as a “short squeeze” IMUC +.02 (6%), LTEA -.65 (13.4%) and TEUM -.33 (12%).

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 12/26/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

AMZN or Just Overbuilding

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 27TH

 

Today’s action was sloppy from the start with AAPL being the biggest drag on the DJIA and GS running a close second.  The problem with AAPL was perceived weakness in the demand for the IPhone X by parts makers in Taiwan.  What I find interesting is that Apple never published or even guided the analysts to a specific number and if there is disappointment it actually comes from what they, without Apple’s input decided what the first quarter “should” look like.  While I didn’t buy the AAPL calls yet, I will when I think we’ve stabilized.  I expect it will be sooner rather than later.  Indexes were slightly lower but well off the lows with DJIA -7.85, NASDAQ -23.71, S&P 500 -2.84, and Russell +1.30.  Market internals were stronger on the NYSE with volume 2:1 and A/D 4:3 while NASDAQ was just under 1:1 on both.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, I usually find some group or earnings for this space, but there was really no stats today so I’m going off on a tangent here since my 15 year old granddaughter brought up AMZN being a monopoly at Xmas dinner. She doesn’t think that it’s “fair” that they can put other companies out of business.  I made the argument that if a company isn’t competitive, they shouldn’t be there.  After much discussion, and my argument that as a consumer, doesn’t she appreciate using AMZN and getting better pricing and convenience (she agrees) is that really who is the culprit ?  After thinking about this last night I have a different view.  AMZN is an issue, but I believe that the issue is the over-expanding and cannibalizing the markets for companies like Walgreens, or CVS, or even Walmart.  Is it really in their best interest to have 4 or 5 Walgreens in a town of less than 15,000?  And that doesn’t even include the competition from the 4 CVS’s or the 3 Rite Aid locations.  She and I agreed to disagree, but she still had to make 2 trips to the car to take all her stuff home.

 

 Oil, $59.80 +1.33 after holding $57 and having a solid grinding higher we broke out over my number (58.99) the news of a pipeline problem in Libya sent prices well over $59 with the high of the day $60.01.  I don’t generally give too much credence to news related gains, but we’ve been on this from the bullish side and today just confirms that stand.  The stocks were all higher with the XLE +.59.

 

RETAIL, was higher across the board on the reports from the Xmas season. Like the oil, it was unanimous on the list I keep and rather than list them all I’ll just go with the XRT +.54 or just over 1%.

  

FAANG, were lower with the exception of AMZN +8.40 and NVDA +2.20.  GOOGL -3.01, FB-1.25, AAPL -4.49 (3%), NFLX -2.44, TSLA -7.90, BA +.50, BIDU-1.05, BABA -4.05 (we got stopped out on 50% rule), and IBM +.49 and XLK -.51

 

FINANCIALS, were all lower with GS -1.26, JPM -1.26, BAC -.11, C -.72, PNC -1.07, and XLF -.08, BUT I used the weakness to buy XLF 1/28 CALLS @ $ .42.

 

METALS, GOLD was up overnight again and continued its run into what I consider some resistance just under $1,290.  I used the strength to take profits on the GLD calls and I’m looking for some weakness or sideways action to re-establish a position for the New Year. Silver is still unimpressive but it has quietly rallied from $15.63 to close today @ $16.62.  Copper has been the star with a steady climb from $2.93 to close today $3.25.  The problem for me is that there are no pure plays in copper and while I traded SCCO last week, it’s just not an easy one to take advantage of the move.

BITCOIN, Today’s new name in the Crypto rush is TEUM, closing $2.75 +1.48 (116%).  I actually know this company and have had them on the radio show several times.  They are primarily a very strong telecommunications company with Vodafone as a major customer. The rest of the group (except CRCW-suspended) were higher with the only exception being the name-change Long Island Ice Tea to Long Block chain $4.60-1.41(23%).  RIOT +6.51 (26%), MARA +.21 (5%), GBTC +370 (18%), OSTK +3.10 (4.7%), BTSC+.01, NETE -.91(6.5%), FLIN+13 (32%), and IMUC +.03 (10%).

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 12/21/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

A Rose is a Rose is a Rose

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 22nd

 

Today’s action was strong with a big up open followed by a steady market all day.  We tested the gap from the open and closed about mid-range.  DJIA +55.64 (.23%), NASDAQ +4.40 (.06%), S&P 500 +5.32(.20%) and Russell +7.03 (46%).  Market internals were stronger than yesterday with NYSE volume 2.2:1 and A/D 9:5 with NASDAQ 1.5:1 and 3:2 respectively.

 

The Stock Trader’s Almanac has a list too big to show here, but if you will send me an email at INFO@MoneyInfo-llc.com  with the words 2017 Free Lunch, I will gladly forward it to you.  Again, I do NOT sell names and addresses.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, No comment tonight

 

 

Oil, $58.36 + .27 after holding yesterday’s range we moved higher again and closed $58.36 and on the highs of the day. We closed over $58.12 and we should see another assault on $59.05 and a possibly higher. The stocks were mixed with CVX +4.11, APC +1.12, COP +1.67, BP +.80, PSX -.64, MPC +.67, MRO +.73, RIG +.73, OAS +.26, OXY +.70, XOM +1.11, HES +2.36 and XLE +1.57.

Retail , was higher with fractional gains.  M+.21, JWN +.66, KSS +.60, DDS +.64, KORS +.31, TJX ++.50, TGT +1.38, and XRT +.19.

 

 

FAANG, were lower with GOOGL -2.71, AMZN-2.86, FB -.34, AAPL +.80, NFLX -.20,  TSLA +2.52, NVDA -.58, BA +2.69, BIDU +6.12, IBM +.88, BABA +2.69 and XLK - .13.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS 5.97, JPM +1.86, BAC +.40, C +1.27, PNC +1.34, and XLF +.27.

 

METALS, GOLD was up overnight again and held $1,270 and traded as high as 1,272 before closing $1,270.06.  Silver was unimpressive show closing at $16.23. Copper held its gains of the past week and closed 3.1995 up a solid $ .04 and near the high of the day. Recent highs near $3.22-24 are possible.  

BITCOIN, Today’s new name in the Crypto rush is LTEA, Long Island Ice Tea, it closed $2.48 and in the premarket traded $14, but never got back there  printing a high of $9.49 +4.47 (183%). The rest of the Crypto names are RIOT 27.60-8.52 (24%), MARA 4.90 -.80, GBTC -611 (25%), LFIN 45.91 -22.59 (33%), NETE with a high of $ 33.51 closed $18.75, OSTK -2.45 and IMUC unchanged. I’ve been warning you about the extreme volatility in these names, and I will remind everyone that there have been several 80% declines in the past 5 years.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 12/20/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Tax Bill Passes, Again !

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 21ST

 

Today’s action was sloppy with a big up open followed by a selloff back to just a bit lower by 10:00AM.  We finished the day with minor losses with DJIA -28.10 (.11%), NASDAQ -2.89 (.04%), S&P 500 -2.22 (.08%) and the Russell +3.33 (.22%).  The real feature of the day was the Transports on the back of FDX +8.53 (3.52%).  They closed @10628 +94.54 (.9%).  Market internals were unimpressive at 5:4 and 1:1 for volume and A/D for both.  We are in the typical pre-holiday period from now until January 2, 2018.  The thing to watch right here is the selloff (for no specific reason) of stocks that have been substantially lower.  This is getting to the end of tax selling and many have sharp snap-backs the first week of the year. The Stock Trader’s Almanac has a list too big to show here, but if you will send me an email at INFO@MoneyInfo-llc.com  with the words 2017 Free Lunch, I will gladly forward it to you.  Again, I do NOT sell names and addresses.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, the chip stocks mentioned here last night have continued to move higher with the SMH (chip ETF) gaining over 30% since July, MU was higher again as were INTC (43 to 47.50) in the last 4 days, AMD +$1 (10%) since Monday,  and TXN up from 95 to 105 this month.

 

 

Oil, $58.09 + .53 after holding yesterday’s range we moved higher again and closed over $58 and on the highs of the day. We still need to close over $58.12 to see another assault on $59.05 and a possibly higher. The stocks were mixed with CVX +1.58, APC +1.34, COP +1.62, BP+.45, PSX +1.58, MPC +.90, MRO +.27, RIG +.31, OAS unch, OXY +.97, XOM +.43, HES +1.04 and XLE +.98.

RETAIL, was higher with fractional gains.  M+.06, JWN +.33, KSS +.25, DDS +.04, SHLD -.07, JCP +.01 and XRT +.15

 

 FAANG, were lower with GOOGL -6.22, AMZN -13.83, FB -1.71, AAPL -.30, NFLX +1.48, TSLA -1.45, NVDA +.14, BA +1.65, BIDU -2.37, IBM -.27 BABA +1.35 and XLK -.02.

 

FINANCIALS, were mostly lower even with another rise in interest rates today.  The upward bent of the Yield curve will guarantee better earnings as the margin on lending increases.  Wells Fargo announced it is raising to minimum wage ($15) to all employees. The rest of the list was GS-1.23, JPM -.16, BAC +.11, C unch, PNC -.18 and XLF -.05

 

METALS, GOLD was up overnight again and held $1,265 and traded as high as 1,271 before closing $1,269.60.  Silver put on an unimpressive show closing at $16.27. Copper held its gains of the past week and closed 3.1775 up a solid $ .04 and near the high of the day. Recent highs near $3.22-24 are possible.  

BITCOIN, Today’s new name in the Crypto-rush is NETE, Net Element, which closed  $5.21 Tuesday and opened today $17.80, traded as high as $24.98 before closing at $19.39 + 14.18 (272%).  The ICE, owner of the NYSE announced today that there will be a full complement of ETFs.  Regular, inverse, leveraged will all appear soon.  It ought to be a big boon for “unbacked derivative based options.”  My coverage list now includes RIOT -1.95 (and trades options now), MARA -.12, GBTC -637.99 (21%), CRCW suspended, OSTK -3.65 (5%), BTSC -.03 (10%), LFIN +2.73 and IMUC -.014 (4.8%).

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 12/19/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

BITCOIN GOT ME !!

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 20th

 

Today’s action was sloppy with an up open followed by a selloff back to just a bit lower by 10:00AM.  We finished the day with minor losses with DJIA -37.45 (.15%), NASDAQ -30.91 (.44%), S&P 500 -8.69 (.32%) and the Russell -12.18 (.79%).  The real feature of the day was interest rates moving higher along the whole curve.  The 10-year, stuck under 2.35% took off and touched 2.47% and the 30-year also higher at 2.82%. The market internals were a little more negative than the market looked with the NYSE 1.5: down volume and 2:1 down A/D while NASDAQ was 3:4 and 9:5 respectively.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, while the chip stocks have continued to move higher with the SMH (chip ETF) gaining over 30% since July, MU reported after the close today and beat both top and bottom line and moved from the close @43.98 to 46.52 +2.52 (5%).  Also reporting was FDX with a beat and good guidance and is up another 5.  The loser of the evening so far is SFIX, a new issue just 6 weeks ago and although the numbers were in-line with the forecasts from the deal, it was a minor disappointment since the stock has already moved from $15 to 26.  It is trading $22 -2.76 or (11%).

 

Oil, $57.66 +.44 after trying the highs again just under $58 we closed up on the day and with today’s high exactly matching yesterday @ $57.80.  We need to close over $58.12 to see another assault on $59.05 and a possibly higher. The stocks were mixed with CVX +.14, APC +.77, COP +.34, BP -.14, PSX -.84, MPC -1.26, MRO +.59, OAS -.10, OXY -.07, XOM -.63, HES -.24 and XLE +.08.

RETAIL, was lower with M -.56, JWN -.12, KSS -.40, DDS -.11, KORS +.17, SHLD (still terminal) -.09, JCP -.14, WMT (with an upgrade) +.90, TJX +.59, TGT -.08, and XRT -.41.

 

FAANG, were lower with GOOGL -5.31, AMZN-3.96, FB -1.42, AAPL -2.09 (got a downgrade), NFLX -3.40, TSLA -7.44, NVDA -1.07, BA+1.56, BIDU -5.31, IBM +.12, BABA -2.12, and XLK -.30.  

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed even with the rise in interest rates today.  The upward bent of the Yield curve will guarantee better earnings as the margin on lending increases.  The tax bill will also help the financials since they are not in the position to have many deductible expenses as do firms with capital equipment.  They have had a strong rally, but I believe there is more to come. GS -3.45, JPM -.45, BAC +.02, C -.97, PNC -1.05 and XLF -.16

 

METALS, GOLD was up overnight again and held $1,260 again and traded as high as 1,268 before closing $1,264.20 -1.3. Silver put on an unimpressive show closing at $16.15. Copper held its gains of the past week and closed near the high of the day at $3.135.

BITCOIN, as I warned, the parade of “Crypto-related stocks continued to proliferate and the one that I purchased, CRCW was halted from trading this morning by the SEC.  They are looking at whether this is a “pump and dump” situation since the stock has moved from $20 to closed yesterday at $575. If you recall, I tried to buy 10 shares @ $110 and got filled on only 2 shares. The stock was literally trading 1 share at a time because there was such an absence of shares available.  This afternoon Andrew Left of Citron was on CNBC discussing this same issue and reiterating his short position in the other stock I zoned in on, GBTC.  Last night I mentioned that this “private trust” contained 1/10 of a Bitcoin per share and was selling at an 84% premium to its net asset value. It closed $3,011-451 after being as high as $3523 and as low as $2,630.  The rest of my list includes RIOT (the first on I mentioned 3 weeks ago) that has moved from $8 to as high as $46, MARA from $1.00 to $10.03 and closed today $5.74, and the newest one, LFIN, a $5.00 new issue a week ago whose CEO sold the company a block chain company he owned and made the info public and watched the stock trade on Friday from $7.86 to 26.50, Monday from $35 to 142, and today from 58.80 to 89 and closed $68.27 -4.11. The CEO was on CNBC last night and said that the market cap was not warranted…REALLY ????

It may be fun to watch, and my $220 stake won’t be missed, but if there was ever a “BUYER BEWARE” situation this is it.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

 

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After the close 12/18/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

New Records All Around

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 19th

 

Today’s action was a continuing strength from the rest of the world.  DJIA +140.67 (.57%), NASDAQ +58.81 (.84%) with a new high over 7,000, S&P 500 +14.37(.54%), Russell +18.50 (1.21%) and even the Transports +129 (1.23%).  The internals were the same on both the NYSE and NASDAQ with a solid 3:1 volume and 2.2:1 A/D.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, today was “Snack Dayon the NYSE with two big deals.  First, there was CPB, a company that has seen steady declines in its mainstay business (evidentally millennials don’t eat soup or pork and beans) bought the century old LNCE,  Snyder’s-Lance, Inc., the maker of the original peanut butter on a cracker snack back in 1913.  The deal is reportedly $6.2 Billion and will be financed through debt.  S&P immediately downgraded the debt and the Street is somewhat skeptical that CPB will be able to raise LNCE’s EBITDA.  The second was Hershey to buy Amplify (BETR) in an all cash deal for $12.  BETR closed $12.01+5.01 (71.5%) but is just slightly lower at 11.93 in extended hours trading.

 

BTW, tomorrow, Tuesday I will be introducing a new small cap, green, energy company that I think has a great future.  The radio show, “MoneyInfo” on WPSL (CBS station) is broadcast at 10:05-11:00 am on AM 1590, and is also on the Internet at www.wpsl.com.

The guest will be Dr. Jerry Bailey who was President of EXXON Arabia.  Be sure to listen or send me an email @ Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com and just ask for the link to the interview.

 

Oil, $57.22-.11 after trying the highs again just under $58 we were just slightly lower and midrange on the day. If it continues to hold this area we should see another assault on $59.05.  The stocks were higher with only XOM -.28. CVX +.38, APC +48.53, COP +.23, BP +.74, PSX +.06, MPC +.26, MRO +.42, RIG +.09, OAS +.10, OXY +.35, HES +.20 and XLE +.53.

RETAIL, continued higher today with Xmas sales going full bore.  There is no excuse (one less day to shop) since the holiday is on Monday.  My main question will be how deeply the discounts cut into earnings, but you can’t argue with the move in the rally off the November lows with M +1.29, JWN +1.14, KSS +2.40, DDS +2.73, SHLD +.09, JCP +.10, WMT +.69, TJX +.77, TGT +1.41and XRT +1.18 (2.7%).

 

FAANG, were higher with only TSLA -4.55.  GOOGL +13.09, AMZN +12.26, FB +.54, AAPL +2.53, NFLX +.08, NVDA +7.20, BA +2.82, BIDU 7.52, IBM +1.00 BABA +.05 and XLK +.57.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher again with GS =3.18, JPM +.85, BAC +.46, C +.80, PNC +1.20 and XLF +.27.

 

METALS, GOLD was up overnight and held Friday’s lows near $1,255 and move to $1,267 before closing $1,265.5 +8 and right near the high. Silver did rally but was unimpressive at $16.20. Copper held and moved as high as $3.12 up $ .06 Friday and continued up another $ .01 today. I would look for some consolidation here since all last week I was looking for a move to $3.15.

BITCOIN, was started trading on the CME last night with a contract for 5 coins rather than the CBOE for only 1 coin.  After the CBOE futures traded over $20,000 Sunday night the actuals closed around $18,870.  It’s hard to comment on this without giving a warning about some of the stocks that mirror the price movement.  The only one that I will mention tonight is the private trust, GBTC, whose shares represent .10 (10%) of a Bitcoin. I have warned about this before, but the public thinks it’s worthwhile trading.  I can’t disagree with the chart, but the close today @ $3,463 and the coins value around $19,000 represents a premium of 84%.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

 

 

 

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After the close 12/14/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

A Little Weakness

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 15th

 

Today’s action was positive early but by noon we started to see some downward pressure and we backed and filled all the way down to the lows of the day.  The DJA was -76 (.31%), S&P 500 -10.84 (.41%), and NASDAQ -19.27 (.28%), and the Russell   being the weakest – 17.50 (1.15%).  CAT and UNH were the biggest losers while DIS, on the news of the FOXA asset purchase and BA were the biggest gainers.  Market internals show the weakness with NYSE volume 2.5:1 down with A/D 2:1 and the NASDAQ 1.5:1 and 2:1. Most of the weakness came on the heels of Marco Rubio’s comment that he “couldn’t in good faith vote of the tax bill.”

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, the earnings after the close grabbed attention after ORCL beat top and bottom but fell from its $50.19 close to $46.97 – 3.22 (6.4%) while ADBE, also a beat moved from 175 to 183 and back to 177 +2.29.  COST was 186.53 -1.75 at the close and in extended hours moved up to 190, down to 185 and is trading $190.88 +$4.30.

 

I am writing another special situation report on a mining (rocks not Bitcoins) stock that I believe will have an incredible position within its industry.  If you would like to receive a copy you can just send me an email with the word REPORT at INFO@MoneyInfo-llc.com.  We don’t sell you information and report is free.  Don’t miss this one !!

 

 

Oil, $57.04 +.44 after trying the downside again oil held $56 and rallied to up on the day at the top of the range. If it continues to hold this area we should see another assault on $59.05.  The stocks were mixed to lower with CVX -.40, APC -.37, COP +.63, BP -.12, PSX -.44, MPC +.51, MRO -.08, RIG -.24, OAS -.10, OXY +.92, XOM -.22, HES +.91and XLE -.25.

RETAIL, continued higher today with NDSN up $16.95 on yesterday’s earning but failed to move the group higher today.  The group was mostly lower with M -.82, JWN -1.31, KSS -.94, DDS -1.05, KORS +.31, SHLD -.01, JCP -.09, WMT -.53, TJX +.03, TGT -.63, DKS -1.00 and XRT-.83 (2%).

 

FAANG, were slightly higher with GOOGL +6.08, AMZN +10.11, FB +.04, AAPL+.08, NFLX +.15, TSLA -1.14, NVDA +1.49, BA +2.63, BIDU -1.42, IBM +.16, BABA -4.38 and XLK -.08.

 

FINANCIALS, were lower for a second day with GS -.08, JPM -.86, BAC -.07, C 1.20, PNC -.86 and XLF -.18.

 

METALS, GOLD was up overnight but this morning’s economic numbers was a let -down and we moved down to but only slightly.  By the end of the day we had tested $1,252 and closed a shade higher.  Tonight there isn’t much going on, but if we hold here I’d expect to see another run to $1,265-70. Silver did the same after it couldn’t eclipse yesterday’s $16.18 and while slightly up, it was near the low of the day. Copper held and moved higher ($3.07) after a good day yesterday.  If it can break  $3.08 on a closing basis we have a shot at $.15-.20.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 12/13/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Bye Bye Auntie Janet

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 14th

 

Today’s action was positive from the start and we built until we had new intraday highs in the DJIA and S&P 500.  The leadership was (again) BA + over 5 but settling +$2.16, CAT+5 (20 Dow points), MMM +2.50 (18 Dow), and UNH +1.80.  The biggest DJIA loser was IBM – 2.57.  As has been typical for the second day for a Fed Meeting we had a run up to the highs, settled down a bit before the announcement and then when we got exactly what was expected we moved slightly higher for the close.  So there were no surprises for Ms. Yellen’s last press conference.  The market internals reversed their trend for the week with basically 1:1 up on the NYSE and 9:4 and 2:1 over at NASDAQ.

 

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, The DIS / FOXA talks probably come to a conclusion tomorrow and the numbers really haven’t changed much since early this week but FOXA was down 1.35 (4%) today after the move from $25 early November.  We also had a couple of trades today; we sold the first half of the IWM calls on the 100% Up Rule and then after they sold the second half just above breakeven.  We bought a very small position in SIG (22% short interest) that I’m watching.  We didn’t take anything off the table in our GLD trade but those calls were +.25 (27%) on the rally we’ve been discussing here all week. Our UTX position was also up and I look for some follow-thru. AAPL made an investment in FNSR and moved +4.40 (22%) on the news.  OSTK, mentioned here positively as a company that has actually investing in block-chain technology was up another $7.45 (14%).  We also have our position in CTL +1.08 (7%) and was #1 S&P mover of the day.  This is the surviving company after a merger with LVLT.  The deal took CTL from being an old “hardline phone company” into a well-diversified streaming backbone company.  The big hit was the fact that they pay $ .52/Q dividend and that they were going to have to cut.  In fact, they have continued to pay and the 2nd Q payment was this week.  So much for being well researched by the street.

 

I am writing another special situation report on a mining (rocks not Bitcoins) stock that I believe will have an incredible position within its industry.  If you would like to receive a copy you can just send me an email with the word REPORT at INFO@MoneyInfo-llc.com.  We don’t sell you information and report is free.  Don’t miss this one !!

 

 

Oil, $56.60 – 54 after trying the upside again oil would not get back over $58 and fell to close lower and at the bottom of its range. It needs to hold over $56 in order to try the recent highs near $59.05.  The stocks were mixed with CVX +.40, APC -.28, COP -.28, BP -.48, PSX +.92, MPC -.34, MRO +.02, RIG -.29, OAS -.18, OXY -.06, XOM +.36, HES -1.16 and XLE -.10.

RETAIL, continued higher today with NDSN up $2.69 at the close and reported a fairly major beat top and bottom and is $140.50 +14 (12%) in late trading.  This should help the XRT +.64 tomorrow morning.

 

FAANG, were slightly higher with GOOGL +2.62, AMZN -.78, FB +1.44, AAPL +.70, NFLX +1.97, TSLA -2.00, NVDA -4.09, BA +2.21, BIDU +.77, IBM -2.57, BABA +2.06 and XLK +.20.

 

FINANCIALS, were lower even though we are clearly seeing interest rates moving higher with GS -1.84, JPM -1.25, BAC -.39, C -.95, PNC -1.85 and XLF -.37.

 

METALS, GOLD after continuing to drift lower we bought a small position in GLD calls Monday.  This is a trade I really liked but would just not move in my favor lately. Finally, after the inflation number and CPI and the Fed announcement we finally had the start (I hope) of a meaningful rally.  After closing on its high yesterday we continued higher and the next overhead resistance is $1,265. Our GLD calls (paid $ .95) closed the day $1.16+.25. Silver did the same and copper, after a good day yesterday, continued higher (+.03) and if it can continue we can test $3.08 we can try $3.10-3.20.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

 

 

 

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After the close 12/12/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

“No Sense of History”

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 13th

 

Today’s action was positive from the start but not very wide spread.  At the open BA was up $8 or roughly $55 Dow points with GS bringing up the rear just after the open + $7 contributing another $51 to the DJIA.  The market internals tell a different story with volume on the NYSE 4:3 up and A/D 1:1 while over at NASDAQ volume was 4:5 and A/D 3:4 down.  You can talk all you want about the averages but the narrowness of this rally is now bordering on absurd.

 

The Bitcoin story continued as the cryptocurrency trading was more subdued than the Sunday/Monday start.  There are no shortages of entrants into the fray and as I’ve said before, it looks like the late 1990s Dot Com boom every day. It amazes me how everyday there are more and more people talking about the market and Bitcoin and that “this time it’s different.”  IT IS NEVER DIFFERENT.  It may be out of the realm of 30 year olds who have no point of reference since they haven’t been through a down market or heaven forbid an actual bear market.  What we have right now is a speculative frenzy (I’ve seen this 3 or 4 times) based on momentum.  Maybe I’m just a dinosaur, but if I didn’t have a point of reference I guess I’d feel like it will never end.

 

A company that I’m using as an example was first seen here for the last 2 weeks, RIOT, Riot Block Chain.  The example is a simple one and easily understandable (and is being repeated by many “Bitcoin” related names.  Let’s not quibble about the move from $3 to 8, let’s just look at past 4 weeks from $7 to $33.  Did the “investors” find this and buy it for its value?  You make the call.  As listed by the company it has roughly 8 million shares as of 11/13/17 for a market cap of yesterday of $192 Million. Its volume picked up and is now 4 million /day, however, if any buyers were investing in it for its value, would it have traded 179.3million shares over that 12 day timeframe, including 36 million today.  Think about it, if it can turnover its entire outstanding 14 times including 4 times just today can there be any actual stock held for investment?  While this has nothing to do with whether you can make money trading it, but when the music stops you’re going to be looking for a chair.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, there were a couple of smaller Pharma issues this morning as many of the firms have been participating in an annual Hematology conference in Atlanta.  GLYC, a stock we’ve been in for a few months announced that it had positive results in a leukemia trial and opened $18.25 +3.93 and closed $16.45 +2.13 or 15%.  We’ve been long since about $12.  PTI had results in a cystic fibrosis and opened $5.49 and closed $6.14 +3.79 (161%.)

 

 

Oil, $57.14 -.85, after trying the upside again oil would not stay yesterday’s price of $58.35) and fell to close lower and at the bottom of its range. It needs to close over $58.36 in order to try the recent highs near $59.05.  The stocks were mixed with CVX -.74, APC +.30, COP +.27, BP +.73, PSX -.65, MPC +.03, MRO +.03, RIG +.20, OAS -1.77 (17.5%) on an offering being made @ 9.00 and XLE -.19.

 

RETAIL, continued mixed today. M -.28, JWN -.48, KSS-.17, DDS -.88, KORS +.08, SHLD -.22 (5.8%), JCP -.32 (10%), WMT -.13, TJX +.35, TGT -.74, and XRT -.63.

 

FAANG, were lower with GOOGL -1.97, AMZN -3.92, FB -1.99, AAPL -1.71, NFLX -.47, TSLA +11.83, NVDA -3.86, BA +7.23, BIDU -1.53, IBM +1.39 BABA -5.31 and XLK -.15. We sold our BABA 12/180 calls @ $ .64 (closed $.40)

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS +7.64, JPM +1.31, BAC +.41, C +.33, PNC +2.56 and XLF +.28.

 

METALS, GOLD continued to drift lower and we bought a small position in GLD calls yesterday.  I’m keeping a close eye on the position, but it did fall this morning and rallied to close on the high of the day. Silver did the same while copper is trying to dig in here around the $3.00 level and was + .04 for the day.

Just a note: While I was finishing this note tonight I had CNBC on in the background, and on Fast Money Brian Kelly, their Bitcoin guy singled out RIOT as a stock to avoid as just a name change without any real business in cryptos

To speak of, with a market cap that went for $23 to 245 million in the recent weeks.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

 

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After the close 12/11/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Is Bitcoin like Wampum ?

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 12th

 

Today’s action was positive from the start but not very exciting unless your world (and portfolio) revolves around Bitcoin. Unless you have no interest in or awareness of the start of trading in Bitcoin futures, good for you.  The DJIA was +$56.87, S&P 500 +8.49, NASDAQ +$35, while the Russell and DJ Transports bucked the trend and closed slightly lower.  Market internals were roughly 1.5:1 up volume both on NYSE and NASDAQ but the A/D was 4:3 positive on NYSE but 3:4 on NASDAQ.

 

The Bitcoin story continued as the cryptocurrency trading on the CBOE started last night and the action was pretty much a non-event in the evening session but solidly higher during the day, closing around $18,600.  Just after the close the SEC put out a “compliance” statement outlining the risk, and warning about the product.  Next stop in the futures was a quick selloff to $17,810 - $735. Frankly, it’s a concern because people are looking at trading these contracts for only 44% margin and using them in retirement accounts. Most speculators will use the contracts and will probably just be short-term traders until the other markets start to trade options on the contracts and increases liquidity.  Maybe the Crypto guys need another current event like Peter Minuit buying Manhattan with Wampum…

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, there were a couple of big Pharma issues this morning as many of the firms have been participating in an annual Hematology conference in Atlanta.  Spark (ONCE) has a new drug for Hemophilia disappointed some investors not for a lack of results, but for the size of the study and closed $47.72 -25.66 (35%), while another in the group with a similar drug BLUE has a competing drug was $201.80 +30.65 (17.9%). The big winner at the conference seems to be ARGX $54.47 24.02 or 78%. Several others were BMRN +6.12, BMY and MRK.

 

Oil, $57.99+.63, after trying the downside again oil would not stay below $57 (56.91) and rallied back to close higher and at the top of its range. It needs to close over $58.36 in order to try the recent highs near $59.05.  The stocks were higher with CVX +.50, APC +.53, COP +.17, BP +.26, PSX +.17, MPC -.29, MRO +.03, RIG +.08, OAS -.38, OXY +.63, XOM +.37, HES + .59 and XLE +.50.

 

RETAIL, continued mixed to higher today. The brands were lower with NKE +.70, LULU -.13, RL -1.15, VFC -.75, KORS-.77, ANF -.11 while many of the retailers were slightly higher.  M +.15, JWN +.06, SHLD +.01, WMT +.38, LB +.71, and XRT _.11.

 

FAANG, were mostly higher with GOOGL ++2.59, AMZN +7.00, FB +.20, AAPL +2.01, NFLX -2.14, TSLA +14.86 (4.7%), NVDA +3.21, BA +.74, BIDU -1.05, IBM +.60, BABA +1.86 and XLK +.55.

 

FINANCIALS, were a lower with GS -.22, JPM -.35, BAC -.13, C +.14, PNC -.51 and XLF -.03.

 

METALS, GOLD continued to drift lower and we bought a small position in GLD calls.  I’m keeping a close eye on the position.  Silver did the same while copper is trying to dig in here around the $3.00 level.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 12/7/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Which Bitcoin do you own ??

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 8th

 

Today’s action was positive from the start and after a move of +121 on the DJIA we settled in for some normal backing and filling. At the close the DJIA was +70.57 (.29%), S&P500 +7.71(.29%), NASDAQ +36.46 (.54%) and the Russell +11.55 (.77%), but the big winner was the Transports at +133.58 (1.31%).  Market internals were strong with bot NYSE and NASDAQ volume 2:1 and 2.5:1 respectively and the A/D 9:5 on both.

We bought some BABA 12/180 CALLS @ $1.10 via text.

 

The Bitcoin story continued as the cryptocurrency crossed $15,000 and continued up to $16,000, 17,000 and 18,000.  As mentioned last night, this type of price action is indicative of a parabolic move and will not be able to sustain itself much longer.  Last night I talked about Silver and how the rules got changed during the game and made it so that you couldn’t be a buyer, and all I heard all day was how there are no sellers in the Coins.  The CBOE and CME are set to start trading futures in the electronic market on Sunday night, and that should give us some degree of transparency, but the problem is really the fact that there are many, many cryptocurrencies and they trade on many different exchanges.  During the day today I saw Bitcoin trading $18,000 one place and $16,400 in another.  Not for my money, or the subscribers of this service.  I never said you couldn’t make money, but my methods quantify risk and this one is off the charts.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, there were several earnings reports again today UAL beating and is +$2.40, and a beat by AOBC (formerly Smith & Wesson) was good but the forward guidance was terrible and it was halted @$14.93 and reopened $13.20, traded down to 12 and is currently $12.91-2.02 or 13%.

 

Oil, $56.69 +.73, after breaking lower yesterday to $56 on the news of a build in oil and decrease in distillates, we continued to be supported just below $56 and down to $55.  Yesterday’s low of $55.87 was pierced to $55.82 but the close near the highs and up on the day are very constructive.  The stocks were mixed after 2 days lower with CVX -.20, APC +.21, COP +.16, BP -.27, PSX +.27, MPC +.54, MRO +.30, RIG -.05, OAS +.05, OXY +.13, XOM +.27, HES -.07 and XLE +.20

 

RETAIL, continued mixed to higher today.   As mentioned last night the brands are now leading the charge.  LULU continued higher again +4.48, YFC +.69, JILL +.44, RL +2.67, UAA +.39, and NKE +.71 and KORS +.10 and a new high for the year.  While it didn’t help DKS -.03, it did help FL +.44, M +.25, KSS +.74, SHLD +.27 (6.5%), TGT +.57, TPR +.65 and XRT +.30.  

 

 

FAANG, were mostly higher with GOOGL +11.85, AMZN +9.15, FB +4.09, AAPL +.37, NFLX -.25, NVDA +3.24, TSLA – 1.97, BA +5.03, BIDU +1.97, IBM -.33, BABA +2.05, and XLK +.39.

 

FINANCIALS, were a mixed today GS +2.61, JPM -.28, BAC +.17, C -.37, PNC +.41, and XLF +.14.

 

METALS, GOLD failed again @ $1260 and dell through the support @ $1,260. We’ll have to see how it acts down here near $1240. Silver, which was lower yesterday and broke the lows at $16.00 and the next stop at $15.50 is possible. Copper also broke pretty dramatically and must now test $2.88-2.90. These are important levels and if they don’t hold we will be looking at another leg lower in the metals.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

 

 

 

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After the close 12/6/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

I’m Back…

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 7th

 

Just want to apologize for my absence the last 2 days but it was an unavoidable medical issue.  But it looks like I didn’t miss all that much.  Before I went in, I did buy a VERY small position in the SPY 12/264 puts since I wanted a little bit of balance in the positions and the divergence between the DJIA and NASDAQ and S&P500 was too much to ignore.  We had to sell half of those puts this morning @ $2.68 on the 100% Up Rule.  It wasn’t much of a gain, but we still have the second half with no money left as a cost.

 

Unfortunately the hospital I was in didn’t have CNBC, Fox Business or Bloomberg TV so I’m a bit behind on the internals or sectors, but I will take care of that this evening and tomorrow.

 

Monday’s gap up and lower finish while not a real “reversal day” and today’s move is a short range day with little activity doesn’t mean much to me, but a move to S&P 500 down to $2610-2620 would add some stability for a move higher as well as add to the gain in the open position.

 

Today’s action didn’t set any records and it was pretty benign, with the internals soft, but not overwhelming with the NYSE volume 1.2:2 negative and the A/D 3:4 while NASDAQ volume was better at 1:1 but A/D 1:2 down.  There was some late news from C warning about a $20Billion charge and depressing the group.

 

The Bitcoin story continued as the cryptocurrency crossed $12,800 and continued up to $14,000.  This type of price action may look new, but it’s not.  Between 1970 and 1978 Silver was trading from a low around $4.00 and got caught up in an effort by the infamous Hunt Brothers of Dallas to corner the market.  The moves were slow but steady for a while, and then options on both futures and naked options sold by several firms that no longer exist started to fuel the move.  In 1975 the price was $3.92 to $5.25 and in 1977 the range was $4.285 to $4.976…that’s a yearly range, not a week or month. In 1978 we broke to over $6.00 and by mid-1979 we had already traded thru $10.00 on its way to $35.  In March of 1980 we made the all-time high of just under $50.  And then the CFTC and the banks changed the rules.  The exchanges allowed “liquidation only” orders and then they raised the margin requirements to carry the trades that were already open.  Within days the price was cut in half and continued back to below $5.00 by 1982.  I mention this because as of this moment, there are no rules for Bitcoin at all, and as long as the government continues to over-reach to “protect” us, I can’t imagine that there will be rules and they will disadvantage free trade.  A dangerous situation for the longs, in a market that trades 24/7.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, there were several earnings reports today with AVGO with a beat and closed $$263.89 and is now trading $272.40 +8.91 (3.4%).  LULU also beat and closed $67.66 +1.31 and is now $72.40 + 5 more (9%).

 

Oil, $55.96 -1.66, after breaking $57 again we dropped to $56 on the build in oil and decrease in distillates.  We are supported from $56 to $55 and while this break is a disappointment for the longs.  The stocks were all lower with CVX -.63, APC -1.15, COP -.85, BP-.13, PSX .68, MPC -1.08, MRO -.46, RIG -.56, OAS -.29, OXY -.73, XOM -.61, HES -1.62 and XLE -.84.

RETAIL, continued mixed to higher today.   As is usual, consumers continue to spend and while the difference between whether you do it online or at the mall still means sales to the brands.  As mentioned above, LULU beat and is higher, LB -.09, RL +1.51, ANF +.51. VFC +1.29, KORS +.04.  The stores were also mixed with M -.10, JWN -.83, KSS -.12, DDS +.93, WMT -.47, TJX -.55, TGT -1.29, DKS +.10 and XRT +.04.

 

 

FAANG, were mostly higher with GOOGL +13.12, AMZN +11.55, FB +3.17, AAPL -.58, NFLX -1.09, NVDA +1.58, TSLA +9.04, BA +2.96, BIDU -.06, IBM -1.07, BABA +3.93, and XLK +.58.

 

FINANCIALS, were a lower today GS -2.08, JPM -.81, BAC .30, C -1.23, PNC +.58, and XLF -.12.

 

METALS, GOLD failed again @ $1300 and came back down to the support @ $1,260.  We’ll have to see how it acts down here near $1250. Silver, which was lower yesterday and broke the lows at $16.00 and the next stop at $15.50 is possible. Copper also broke pretty dramatically and must now test $2.88-2.90. These are important levels and if they don’t hold we will be looking at another leg lower in the metals.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

 

 

 

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After the close 11/30/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Nasdaq Rallies But Not Much

 

FOR TRADING DECEMBER 1ST

 

Today’s early action took us to new highs in the DJIA, S&P500, and Transports.  The Russell and NASDAQ made a gallant effort but both fell short in my opinion, with both moving higher but underperformed.  The Russell closed +1.84 (.12%) and the NASDAQ was +49.58 (.73%) but not coming near its loss yesterday.  The DJIA was +331 (1.39%), S&P500 +21.51(.82%) and the market internals were solid but not excessive with NYSE volume and A/D were both 1.5:1 while the NASDAQ was 1.8 and only 8:7 A/D.  The major contributors to the DJIA (in Dow pts) were AAPL +16, CAT +21, MMM +36, HD +17, MCD +11, UNH +42, UTX +23…We had to give up the first half of our UTX call position on the 100% Up Rule.

 

The Bitcoin story continued as the cryptocurrency tried to rally to just over $10,400 then fell to n$9200 before closing around $9800. The stocks I’ve been watching were slightly higher with RIOT 13.79 +.61 and MARA 4.30 +.25.  While they have moved a bit, they are both down 40-75% from the highs.  Several of the chips stocks that were “involved” in the mining of Bitcoins have discounted their involvement.  NVDA, AMD and SQ have all said it isn’t a meaningful part of their businesses.  One more tied to the cyber currencies, OSTK (the discounted merchandise company) has been developing Crypto-currency services and had moved from $14 in August to trade $65.70 earlier this week fell to $47 today.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, there were several earnings reports today with KR the biggest surprise with a major beat and had risen from $20 earlier this month and $23 this week added to those gains and after trading $27.70 and closed $25.86 +1.48 (6%).  Another that reported today was AMBA, which for the first time this year had a positive reaction and after closing $54.27 traded as high as $58 was $56.85. LB missed and was lower preopen but managed to not only turn it around, but finished the day $56.79 +4.25.

 

Oil, $57.40 +.10, after breaking $57 again with an inside day made a higher low by a couple of cents managed an up day.  Every test of the $57 mark that rallies higher makes this market look like it wants to move higher.  The OPEC meeting today didn’t seem to matter much but we’ll see overnight what the talking heads decide what it means.  The stocks were higher again with CVX +1.56, APC +.20, COP +.15, BP +.30, PSX +2.29, MPC +1.23, MRO +.20, RIG +.22, OAS +.58, OXY +.20, XOM +.86, HES +1.07 and XLE +1.02.

RETAIL, continued mixed today as there were a couple of downgrades and in particular GPS, reduced to hold bases on price appreciation.  I get that the move from $20 to $32 might be meaningful but let’s remember that this group has been coming down for 2 years and while up 60% this year it is down from $48.  The group was mixed to lower with M -.28, JWN -.36, KSS +.20, DDS -3.34 (5.2%), KORS -.20 (but within .26 of a new high for the year), SHLD -.11, after I thought that it might not be terminal at the open at $5.40 +1.15, couldn’t hold any of the rally, JCP -.18 (5%), LB +4.25, WMT -.46, TJX +.45, TGT -1.78, DKS -.01 and XRT-.21.

 

 

FAANG, were mostly higher with GOOGL -1,21, AMZN +19.33, FB +1.93, AAPL +2.01, NFLX +-.59, TSLA +.48, NVDA +3.88, BA +6.82 (52 Dow pts), IBM +1, BIDU +3.09, BABA -2.41, and XLK +.56.

 

FINANCIALS, were a feature again today and were responsible for the strength in the Dow.  GS +5.76 (44 Dow pts), JPM +.58 (6 Dow pts.) BAC -.05, C +.21, PNC +.83, and XLF +.18.

 

METALS, GOLD broke to the downside yesterday and the follow-thru took it back to yet another test of $1,270 today and closed $1,273.40 and is slightly higher tonight.  Silver, which was sharply lower yesterday tested $16.34 lows from August and managed to hold (SO FAR). $16.00 is the next stop and $15.50 is possible. Copper continues to hold $3.02 as discussed here last night. These are important levels and if they don’t hold we will be looking at another leg lower in the metals.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

 

 

 

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After the close 11/29/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Tough Sledding by the Big Winners !!

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 30th

 

Today’s early action took us to new highs in the DJIA and Russell.  The biggest surprise was that the NASDAQ, QQQ, and XLK not only didn’t make any new highs, but went totally in the opposite direction. While the Dow was +103 (.44%) and the Russell gained 5.86 (+.39%) while NASDAQ was -87.98 (1.27%).  Transports were up an astounding 323 (3.3%) and Retail continued higher as it actually took the XRT to a new high for the year.

 

The Bitcoin story continued as the cryptocurrency went through $10,000 for the first time and then ran straight to just over $11,370 before crashing back to earth to $9,290 and currently trading around $9800.  The two stocks I warned about in this space, RIOT and MARA closed $13.44 -1.81 and $4.05 +.20 respectively, both more than cut in half in the last 2 days. While there are all sorts of excuses about service outages at Coinbase, this move went parabolic the last 2 weeks and fell under its own weight.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, several chip stocks were downgraded in the last couple of days continued sharply lower again today.  WDC -5.89 (6.7%), MU -4.19 (8.7%), LRCX -18.60 (8.7%), NVDA -14.29 (6.7%), and since the list is endless so I’ll just give you the 2 ETFs, SMH -4.41 (4.4%), and SOXL -21.65 (13%.but leveraged).

 

 

Oil, $57.40-.59, after breaking $57 to 56.75 before rallying back over $57.  While the draw in crude was offset by a build in finished goods, we have an OPEC meeting coming up and everyone will be awaiting to see if the production cuts will hold.  The stocks were mostly higher with CVX +.73, APC +.11, COP +.32, BP -.19, PSX +.73, MPC -.82, MRO +.19, OAS +.13, OXY+.94, XOM +.59, HES +1.43 and XLE +.01.

RETAIL, continued to new recovery highs with talk of a tax deal would help them, in opposition to the online companies.  M +1.71 (7.7%), JWN +3.09 (7.2%), KSS +1.69, DDS +5.99 (10.4%), SHLD +.18, JCP +.09, WMT +.73, GPS +1.52, TJX +2.13, TGT +4.98 (8.8%), UAA +.67, DKS +1.74 (6.2), and XRT +1.13 (2.6%).

 

FAANG, were demolished with GOOGL-26.92, AMZN -32.33, FB -7.34, AAPL -3.86, NFLX -10.85, TSLA -11.05, NVDA -14.14, BA +1.31, BIDU -9.90, BABA -6.71, and XLK -1.43.  I didn’t bother to include the percentage losses since these stocks are up anywhere from 70-100% YTD.  While I had to sell my AAPL calls on the 50% down rule, let’s remember that every time we have had these 1 or 2 days down, these stocks have turned up and have moved to new highs.  We’ll have to see if “it’s different this time.”

 

FINANCIALS, were the feature today and were responsible for the strength in the Dow.  GS +3.23 (20 Dow pts), JPM +2.43 (18 Dow pts.) BAC +.72, C +1.32, PNC +4.05, and XLF +.53 (2%).

 

METALS, GOLD broke to the downside after Ms. Yellen testified this morning and closed $1,282.40 -12.50 and we will have to see how $1,270 holds yet again.  Silver, which was sharply lower yesterday continued down $ .35 @ $16.45 and Copper back down to the $3.03 level.  These are important levels and if they don’t hold we will be looking at another leg lower in the metals.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

 

 

 

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After the close 11/28/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

BITCOIN Companies (maybe)

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 29th

 

Today’s early action took us to new highs and participation was widespread.  By 11:00 volume on the NYSE was a solid 2:1 and it built all day to finish at almost 4:1. A/D finished 2:1.  NASDAQ actually started negative but by the close it was 1.5:1 volume and 2:1 A/D. The indexes steadily rose until the news of the North Korean missile launch and the Dow went from up about 160 to up only 80 before reversing again to make new highs and then went another 100 to close +255.93 (1.1%).  Similar action across the board with S&P500 +25 (.98%), NASDAQ +33 (.5%), Russell +23 (1.53) and even the Transports +159 (1.65%).  We did a little buying near the close with the AAPL 12/175 calls @ $1.74.

 

The Bit Coin /Block chain stocks were lower again as everyone tried to disengage from being involved.  RIOT was down to $12.97 before finishing @$14.95 -.65, MARA was $10.03 yesterday morning finished today @ $4.10 -2.41, another 37% decline.  Several somewhat related like SQ which ran from $34 to almost $50 in the last 10 days fell as far as $39.50 before finding support and closed $42.55 +1.53 (3.73%).  Misconceptions abound, so the warning remains.  Do your homework, this is a treacherous side of a questionable investment, even though it is tradable.

 

SECTORS:other names in the news, Rockwell Automation and Emerson gave up their plans to marry and BWLD and Roark Capital also split only to be re-engaged to Arby’s.

 

 

Oil, $57.99 -.12, and while -.30 tonight it continues holding its support at $57 or so, and although I think it could test the breakout at $55, I am not playing the SCO until we see some sideways action to define the trading range.  Stocks were higher across the board with CVX +.85, APC +.08, COP +.97, BP +.24, PSX +1.48, MPC =.34, MRO - .06, RIG +.05, OAS +.04, OXY +.77, XOM +.56, HES + .28, and XLE +.52.

RETAIL, had another positive day. Consumer confidence was 129.5 up from 126.2 and was the highest level since 2000.  All of the stocks I follow in the group were up.  The standouts were M +.84, JWN +1.26, KORS +1.26, even “terminal”  Sears was + .15 (6.15%), LB +1.99, ANF +1.27 (7.7%), and  the XRT +1.27 (3%).

 

FAANG, were mixed to lower with GOOGL -10.12, AMZN -5.33, FB -.68, AAPL -1.03, NFLX +4.05, TSLA +.03, NVDA -3.25, BA +2.42, IBM +.49, BIDU -3.52, BABA -1.13 and XLK +.21

 

FINANCIALS, were higher with GS +4.58, JPM +3.67, BAC +1.14,  C +2.36, PNC +3.12 and the XLF +.68. This is a welcome rotation since bull markets without participation from the financials ultimately fail.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 11/27/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

I Warned You !!

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 28th

 

Today’s early action took us to new highs and before some profit taking came in and blunted the gains.  Unfortunately the Dow was the only one that closed higher.  Volume was still on the light side and the market internals were also soft with NYSE volume 1.4:2 down with the A/D 9:5 lower.  NASDAQ was about the same with volume 1.5:1 down and A/D 3:4 lower.  The only meaningful gains were in MMM and HD while the biggest loser was DWDP although not in any meaningful way.  Most were either up or down fractionally.

 

Last Wednesday I used this space to warn against the proliferation of stocks that are changing their name to “block chain” this or that and making announcements about how they were participants in the BitCoin market.  As usual, I was a little early, when the stock, RIOT Block Chain had closed at $15.99 +4.73 (40%).  While the stock continued higher on Friday to $24, today we gapped down and closed $15.60 -8 (34%).This is the way these flash in the pan rallies generally end.  I’m not saying that there may be others with solid business plans and real businesses, but on a day when BITCOIN was higher by $350, even the good names that are actually participating in a real market got taken to the woodshed.  OSTK -5.95 (9.3%), SQ – 7.84 (17%), MARA started @ $1.50 on Wednesday gapped up to $10.03 this morning and closed $6.51 +.56 but is trading in extended hours at $4.73 -1.78 or 27%.  While I am not saying that there are no good trades in the group, but when you can go to sleep thinking $24, and you awaken to $16 on a gap down, it’s my position to have no positions in this type of stock.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, (downgrades), several chip stocks were downgraded and the results were immediate with WDC -6.23 (6.7%) although it is now sitting on the 200 day moving average, MU-1.63 (3.3%), LRCX -5.90 (2.7%), STX -1.21 (3%), as well as the SMH (semi ETF) -1.64 and SOX (leverages semi ETF) -6.45 (3.7%).  On the earnings scene the biggest surprise was THOR which closed $136.25 and beat on all metrics and is now trading $151.20 +15.00 (11%).  Also in the news was CUDA gapped up on the news that it is being taken private at $28 and closed $27.59 +3.90 (16%).

 

 

Oil, $58.11 -.84, and holding its support at $57 or so, and although I think it could test the breakout at $55, I am not playing the SCO until we see some sideways action to define the trading range.  Stocks were lower across the board with CVX -1.07, APC -.43, COP -1.31, BP -.54, PSX -.83, MPC -.15, MRO -.64, RIG -.22, OAS -.62, OXY -.34, XOM -.36, HES -1.30 and XLE -.69.

RETAIL, as you would expect was positive today.  All of the reports from Black Friday seemed to tell a story of good participation at lower discounts than last year in the stores.  As for Cyber Monday, results are being totaled and so far they are running 16% ahead of last year. The expectation is for $6.6 billion.  The XRT was up just $ .08 on the day.

 

FAANG, were mixed with AMZN making a new high of $1213.41 before closing 1195 +9.38 (.83%),  GOOGL +10, AAPL -.91, FB +.31, NFLX -.95, TSLA +1.44, NVDA -2.76, BA -.30, IBM +.14, BIDU -2.40, BABA -2.89 and XLK unchanged.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed with GS -.45, JPM -.39, BAC +.02, C -.65, PNC +.07 and the XLF - .02.  

 

METALS, GOLD continues to hold above $1,275 but it was turned back at $1,299 closing $1,294 + 7.10 and it has created great support from 1265 -1270 and has made 3 lower highs in the past 6 weeks.  I believe a close over 1,303 could take off to 1308-10 and possibly t0 the $1,320.  Silver was turned back at $17.40 but held over 16.80 and was +.028. and a break over 17.28 tests 17.40- 60. Copper is still testing 3.12 and has built a well-defined “FLAG”   but it doesn’t really break out until 3.18. Today it also tested $3.12, the point of breakout from Oct 10. Today’s close of -$.034 bought us back into the test of $3.10-.12 from last week.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 11/22/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Watching Paint Dry

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 24th

 

I’m starting this early since I have travel plans and the market is like watching paint dry today and Friday is only a half day.  The markets opened higher and then reversed lower, although new highs were seen and the downside is very limited. All of the indexes are down less than .25%, with the NASDAQ is up 10 (.014%).  The Dow is down $48 but may rally before the close while S&P 500 is 1 higher or lower depending on how often you look. Market internals are volume slightly positive and A/D is 4:3 on both NYSE and NASDAQ.

 

SECTORS:

 

Other names in the news, (earnings), not much to talk about with the exception of DE which beat and has been on a rip from mid-August after a gap down to just above its 200 day moving average near $128 to the current level of $145.05 adding another $5.82 or just over 4%.  IRBT price objective was lowered and opened unchanged but is now  lower by $5.09 (7%).  Another Lazarus stock (one that comes back from the dead) is TWTR, having consolidating since its fall from $75 to $14 it looks like it may be ready to test its break on a reversal day and gap in 10/2016 from $25 to 19. It is trading $22.35 + .47 (2.1%).

 

 

 

 

Oil, $57.96 +1.13, and holding that level all day. I was using support levels of $55-54 and we tested $55 and failed to break.  This morning’s action tested $58 (58.09) and if we were to close here we are setup to test the closes between 59 and 62 reached after a cascading decline in May – June 2015.The stocks higher across the board with only PSX and MCP lower, and not by much.  The XLE is currently + .35.

 

RETAIL, is mostly mixed with small gains and losses.  We will be inundated with video from malls for the next few days as sales will be totaled and talking heads will be asking shoppers how much they spent and extrapolated to jump to the conclusions about the season.  One thing is sure, this is the season for retail and online will take a chunk out of the mall business.  The XRT continues to edge higher trading +.18 right now

 

 

FAANG, are mixed today after a very strong day yesterday.  All are slightly changed both up and down, except the 800 pound gorilla, AMZN +15.35.

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed with GS +-.31, JPM +.80, BAC +.13, C +.65, PNC +.44 and the XLF +.12.  

 

METALS, GOLD continues to hold support at $1,270-75 and is building some momentum to breach $12.96.50 a move above that should yield $1,308. Silver has pretty much the same technical setup with support at 16.80 and resistance 17.38-40. Copper is higher with a high today of $3.145 and is staging a recovery, but needs a move over $3.18-20.

Tomorrow is another day.  And that day is Thanksgiving, so enjoy and don’t bother trying to trade the half day.

 

CAM

                           

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After the close 11/21/2017


Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

New Highs and a Warning


FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 22nd

Today’s action was up from the start with markets that were encouraged by markets in China, following the sun to Europe and finally here. We had new highs across the board including a break of 2600 in the S&P.  DJIA +160.50 (.70%), NASDAQ +71.77 (1.06%), S&p500 +16.89 (.65%), Russell +15.49 (1.03%), and even the Transports were +94(1%).  Market internals were better than yesterday, but there was a serious divergence between the NYSE with volume 4:3 while NASDAQ was 3:1.  A/D was identical at 2:1. There were only 5 of the Dow stocks down, WMT, GE, GS, VZ, and JPM.  The biggest contributors to the gains were AAPL, HD, IBM, MMM, UHN, and V.

SECTORS:
Other names in the news, (earnings), LOW had a strange day with a beat top and bottom and good guidance but opened lower and traded down to $79.50 before grinding higher to $82, and closing -.87.  DSW missed all around and gapped to 19.47 and closed 19.55 -2.98 (13%). GME on a slide from 20 in the past 4 weeks beat all around and closed 16.73 ran to $19.46 and is trading $18 +1.54 (9%). HPE / HPQ had the double whammy with just so so earnings and Meg Whitman leaving her post as CEO and both stocks are lower. One more American institution is suffering, CPB, Campbell Soup missed and fell $4.09 (8.2%) and has been on a slide since July 2016  when it topped out @ $67.89, a 35% drop in a little over 16 months.


Oil, $56.83 +41, and moving higher tonight + .81, as I noted in the Weekly Strategies  it was unable to break to the upside and move higher. I was using support levels of $55-54 and we tested $55 and failed to break.  Today’s action tested $57 (57.21) and moved further. The stocks were mixed with CVX+.45, APC-.52, COP -.07, BP +.13, PSX +78, and XLE +.15.  If we hold tonight’s gains we should have a good open.

RETAIL, was lower again today with M -.38, JWN -.19, DDS -1.66 SHLD - .16 (4%), JCP -.10 (3%), WMT -.98, UAA -.66 (5%) on news of the footwear head leaving amid major “promotion” in the line causing margin compression. But the biggest loser was a stock that we’ve played several times in the last 18 months, SIG, Signet Jewelers.  The story started about this time of the year in 2016 and about 65% higher. There were rumors (seemingly all true) about fictitious sales and financing, unenforceable warranties, and the greatest number of consumer complaints of any retailer reported on state and national basis. The news that their same store sales were lower as was guidance for 2018 took it down $22.79 (30%) and not only was it the worst of the S&P 500 but the loss was bigger than the next 6 losers combined.  Last night I wrote, “I’m a bit perplexed with the group since this is really their season, but most are overbought and somewhat extended, so I’m stepping aside until I see either a pull back or watch it break higher”, guess I stepped aside without thinking about this one.


FAANG, were all higher with GOOGL +14.59, AMZN +14.19, FB  +3.14,  AAPL +3.07, NFLX  +2.17, TSLA  +8.86, NVDA +2.04, and we will add BA  +2.31, IBM +1.23, BABA +3.36 since they will start trading futures on FAANG + these as well as BIDU +5.76.

FINANCIALS, were mixed with GS -.08, JPM -.07, BAC +.02, C +.20, PNC -.18 and the XLF +.08.  

METALS, GOLD continues to hold above $1,275 but it was turned back at $1,297 closing $1,281+$7 on a narrow range day. It has created great support from 1265 -1270 and has made 3 lower highs in the past 6 weeks.  I believe this could take off to 1308-10 and possibly t0 the $1,320.  Silver was turned back at $17.40 but held over 16.80 and was +.09 and a break over 17.28 tests 17.40- 60. Copper is tested 3.05 yesterday and continued to rally to $3.1285 +.0255 and has built a well-defined “FLAG” but it doesn’t really break out until 3.18.

AND THE WARNING:  I watch the tape (scrolling across the picture on CNBC) and have done so for 45 years or so.  This allows me to see when something is trading that I either haven’t seen before or if it acts differently than it has before.  Yesterday I noticed a symbol I’d not seen before. I and another subscriber did a bit of due diligence on it and found some interesting stuff.  RIOT is the symbol for a company named RIOT Block Chain. The stock has an interesting past since 2011 it has been “reverse split” at least 3 separate times. It has also changed its name 4 times since 2012.  This info is easy to find on OTCMarkets.com.  The words Block chain are most commonly attached to Bitcoin or crypto-currencies.  If you would have owned it in 2012 your position would have been reduced by 24,000:1.  I know that seems abstract and I’ll put it a different way, If you would have invested $24,000 in 2012 the stock it would now be worth $11.26.  There are many of these stocks that have been reversed and have very little stock in the float, and any promotional activities cause sharp rallies and collapses. The company on OTCMarkets.com has “not available” for business description, SIC, accountant/auditor firm, counsel, and Investor relations. I have no clue about this particular one, but I do recall 1999 / 2000 when companies added .COM to their names to attract attention, did not end well for 95% of those companies

Tomorrow is another day

CAM



 

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After the close 11/20/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 21st

 

Today’s action was up from the start with markets that shrugged off the overnight weakness and the European markets.  We were higher across the board with DJIA +72.09, NASDAQ +7.92, S&P500 +3.29 Russell +10.57 but also on a percentage basis up double all the others. Even the Transports were higher.  The market internals mirrored each other with NYSE and NASDAQ 1.5:1 volume and 3:2 A/D.  The day opened with a deal for MRVL to buy CAVM for $6-7 billion and both were higher with CAVM +8.26 (10%) and MRVL +1.30 (6.4%).

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, (earnings), more wood for the fire in retail with URBN beating both top and bottom with good guidance $30.27 after trading as high as $32 and +2.00 in the after-market up 7%.PANW beat and is trading now $151.49 +8.96 (7.4%). BLMN also beat and is trading $20.54 + 2.27 (12.2%), BURL beat and is + 3.72 (3.5%), INTU beat but offered on “in-line” guidance and after trading up to $161.35, but  is now $154.40, after making a new high is -3.38.  LGND was downgraded and closed 130.50 -9.81 (7%).  HAIN was all over the place today and was even halted for volatility and traded as high as $44.37 before closing 40.89 + 1.05.  It is a perennial takeover story since it has many valuable brands. A beat but had poor future guidance after making a new high today fell from the close of 69.96 to a last of $65.52 -4.42.  ASYS beat top, bottom and guidance and after closing $14.12 is now 16.21 +2.09 (14%).  Another name, but not earnings was MCK, cited by MS as most susceptible to AMZN moving into medical supply market and closed -3.89 (2.7%) while CAH, also mentioned fell 2.51 or (4.5%).

 

Oil, $56.42 -.29, and holding that level tonight + .08, as noted in the Weekly Strategies  it was unable to break to the upside and  move higher. I was using support levels of $55-54 and we tested $55 and failed to break.  This morning’s action tested $57 (56.93) and turned it down to a low of $55.75 before cutting the loss to a mere $ .29.  The stocks were mostly lower, but not by much. Only MRO - .58 (3.85%) and OAS - .41 (4.1%) were lower by more than 1% while XLE was -.16.

 

RETAIL, as mentioned above URBN and BURL both beat and while it is clearly an issue, the move away from apparel retailing to the move by AMZN to healthcare has given these names some breathing room.  Most were higher with M +.50, JWN +.06, KSS +.46, DDS -1.39, KORS -.14, SHLD -.22 (5.2%), JCP +.03, WMT gapped down on a downgrade but finished +.13, ANF +1.52 added to its $3.00 move Friday added another (9.7%). The rest of the list was nominally higher and XRT +.35.  I’m a bit perplexed with the group since this is really their season, but most are overbought and somewhat extended, so I’m stepping aside until I see either a pull back or watch it break higher.

 

FAANG, were lower today although most changes were the equivalent to rounding errors.  GOOGL – 1.23, AMZN -3.28, FB  -.26,  AAPL -.14, NFLX  +1.26, TSLA  -6.70, NVDA +2.91, and we will add BA  +2.37, IBM 1.81, BABA – +2.22 since they will start trading futures on FAANG + these as well as BIDU -1.66..

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed with GS +-.31, JPM +.80, BAC +.13, C +.65, PNC +.44 and the XLF +.12.  

 

METALS, GOLD continues to hold above $1,275 but it was turned back at $1,297 closing $1,275 -$21 and it has created great support from 1265 -1270 and has made 3 lower highs in the past 6 weeks.  I believe this could take off to 1308-10 and possibly t0 the $1,320.  Silver was turned back at $17.40 but held over 16.80 and was -.53. and a break over 17.28 tests 17.40- 60. Copper is still testing 3.05-06 and has built a well-defined “FLAG”   but it doesn’t really break out until 3.18. Today it also tested $3.05, the point of breakout from Oct 10. Today’s close of +$.026 bought us back into the downtrend line.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

  

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AFTER THE CLOSE 11/16/2017

I’M SORRY, THERE WILL BE NO DAILY NOTE TONIGHT

CHARLES

After the close 11/16/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Target Disappoints

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 16th

 

Today’s action was the first of the week that we didn’t rally to close at or near the highs.  We did open down and we tried, but by the late afternoon it was clear that there just wasn’t enough buying to bring it back. Market internals were negative with NYSE volume running 3:4 and A/D 5:9 and NASDAQ was 4:5 and 3:2 negative.  In late news it turns out that the firm that does the audit on the P&G’s votes has declared that Nelson Peltz in fact won a board seat by 43,000 votes, and the stock rallied from $88.23 to as high as $91.90 +3.67. The biggest losers were AAPL, CAT, HD, UNH, and MMM. We also had a couple of names in the news were ACOR announced the end of a trial on a new drug due to a death and fell to $17 -11.20 (39.7%) while LEDS which had news of a smaller than expected loss and closed $6.39 +3.59 (128%) after hitting $10.49 and being halted for volatility.

 

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, (earnings), more of the important retail names with TGT coming in with a beat, but very soft Q4 guidance and it sold off to $54.34 -5.75 (9.5%), LB $47.50-1.77(3.6%) and after the close RH reported a beat and is 96.71 +8.02 (9%).  On the tech side we had a beat of CSCO and the stock went from $34.11 to $35.93 +1.82 (5%), NTAP closed $45.82 and is now 49.80 +3.98 or 8.9%. YY beat both top and bottom lines with great guidance closed $111.39 +22.16 (24.8%).  JASO went the other way -$1.07 (13%).

 

Oil, $55.31 -.39, and holding that level tonight, as noted last night it was unable to break to the upside and  move higher. I was using support levels of $55-54 and we tested $55 and failed to break.  If we do break $54.81, $54 is the next support. The stocks were mostly lower again today with CVX -.34, APC -.43, COP -.74, BP -.60, PSX -.26, MCP -.95, MRO -.06, RIG -.24, OAS -.12, OXY -.65, XOM -1.04, HES -1.24, and XLE -.77.

RETAIL, as mentioned above this has been a big week for the sector. WMT reports tomorrow and the options predict a move of roughly 3.5% in either direction. With the rally in the XRT and some of the big names moving higher this has been a very unforgiving market for the losers. WMT was one of the few lower today in a sector that was mostly higher, the other loser was TGT was the other –9.5%.  The rest of the group were higher and even “terminal” SHLD gained .36 for a move of 9.45%.  The rest were M +.32, JWN +.30, KSS +.07, DDS + .28, KORS +.60, JCP +.09, WMT -1.49, GPS +.32, LB -2.15, TJX +1.08, and XRT +.08.

 

FAANG, were lower today with GOOGL – 3.74, AMZN -8.87, FB  +.58,  AAPL -1.99, NFLX  -3.11, TSLA  +3.00, NVDA -3.51, and we will add BA  +1.04, IBM -1.59, BABA – .10 since they will start trading futures on FAANG + these as well as BIDU -.71..

 

FINANCIALS, were mixed with GS +.71, JPM +1.18, BAC +.58, C +.31, PNC +.90 and the XLF +.07.  

 

METALS, GOLD continues to hold above $1,275 but it was turned back at $1,290 closing $1,277 -$5 and it has created great support from 1265 -1270 and has made 3 lower highs in the past 6 weeks.  I believe this could take off to 1308-10 and possibly t0 the $1,320.  Silver was turned back at $17.20 but held over 16.90 and was -.09 and a break over 17.28 tests 17.40- 60. Copper is still testing 3.05-06 and has built a well-defined “FLAG”   but it doesn’t really break out until 3.18. Today it also tested $3.05, the point of breakout from Oct 10. The Chinese have bought massive physical copper in recent years and they continue to use it as an asset for lending.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 11/14/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

And the beach ball keeps coming back up!!

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 15th

 

Today’s action was another example of pushing the beach ball down, but it just keeps on coming back to the surface.  We started down and went to the low at -167 on the DJIA and spent the rest of the day coming back to close -.03%.  The rest of the indexes were also lower all by less than .30% except the transports that closed near the lows of the day.  Market internals were negative with NYSE volume 2:1 down and A/D 1.5:1and NASDAQ 5:4 and 1:1.  The pattern was duplicated by HD on its earnings, which beat but the street was not too enamored until they provided guidance and same-store sales. The same pattern was seen in the 2 stocks we bought between yesterday and today, UTX and GLD.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, (earnings), most of the important retail names HD and DKS came early and HD as mentioned above closed + 2.71(1.6) and DKS which also beat but gave poor guidance and after moving lower finished near the highs -.73 (2.7%). Staying with the retail TJX was also a miss and fell $2.86 (4%), but we have some more tomorrow.  AAP beat and gapped up trading well over 102 but finished nearer the lows but still +13.44 (16%), and SORL a Chinese producer of Auto parts and brake systems which has a conference call tomorrow at 8:00AM to discuss their Q3 earnings ripped higher after the close to $8.45 + 2.46 or 41%. This is a beaten down group and today’s rally in AAP leaves it down over 45%.  Other news was a bid for BWLD by Roark Foods, owner of Arby’s, Carl’s Jr, and several other easily recognized restaurant brands.  BWLD closed $145.3).5 +26.50 (22%)

 

Oil, $55.34-1.42, and is trading $55.11tonight -.59, and was unable to move above $57.50. The closing high is $57.35 and (as I stated here last night) may be back to test the $55 level before being able to move higher. Today’s low was just under $55 and could easily test $54.  The stocks in the group were universally lower with CVX-.53, APC -2.33 (4.6%), COP -1.51, BP -.47, PSX -.47, MPC -.24, MRO-.71, RIG -.58 (5.6%), OAS -.54, OXY -1.42, XOM -.87, HES -1.85 and XLE -1.12.

RETAIL, as mentioned above has more numbers to come this week.  With the rally in the XRT and some of the names were higher today with M +.27, JWN +.44, KSS +1.02, DDS -.29, KORS +1.01, SHLD -.38 (9.2%), JCP +.03, WMT +.12, TJX -2.86, TGT +.67 and XRT +.10.

 

FAANG, were mixed to lower today with GOOGL +.44, AMZN +4.95, FB-.92, AAPL -2.47, NFLX +.37, TSLA -6.70, NVDA +1.08, BA -1.42, IBM -.40, BIDU -2.87, and XLK -.13.

 

FINANCIALS, were lower again with GS -3.52, JPM - .77, BAC -20, C -.71 and the XLF -04.  I mentioned on Thursday nights note that I thought that the decline in BAC has been excessive to my way of thinking (10+ %) and I am still waiting to get long the calls.

 

METALS, GOLD continued to hold above $1,270 and now has crossed above $1,280 and closed at the high of the day @ $1283, and has created great support at 1265.  I believe this could take off to 1308-10 and possibly t0 the $1,320.  Silver held over 16.80 and was +.08 and again had a higher low and higher high. A break over 17.28 tests 17.40- 60. Copper is still testing 3.05-06 and has built a well-defined “FLAG”   but it doesn’t really break out until 3.18. Today it was - .035.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 11/13/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

GE FAILS TO ENCOURAGE INVESTORS

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 14th

 

Today’s action was not as bad as anyone would have thought with the futures lower across the board and GE announced the cut of the dividend in half.  We gapped down in the Dow, S&P500, NASDAQ, Russell and even the transports turned almost immediately.  At the close, all but the Russell were up on the day.  The internals were a mixed picture with NYSE volume and A/D 4:3 down while NASDAQ was 5:4 up and even on the A/D.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, (earnings), most of the important retail names start to come tomorrow with HD and DKS, with more names like BBY, TGT, and WMT filling out the week. HD is all about the effects of the hurricanes while DKS investors are on edge after a bad last Q it and fell from $35 to $27 and the issue became how much more “competitive “  they could be on brands like UA and NKE.  So the issue for tomorrow is how “promotional” they were and what margins they could maintain.

 

Oil, $56.76 + .02, and holding that level tonight -.08, and it is still unable to move above $57.50. The closing high is $57.35 and we may be back to test the $55 level before being able to move higher. The stocks are holding pretty well and were mostly lower today with CVX +.04, APC -.88, COP -.42, BP -.50, PSX -.44, MPC +.48, MRO -.22, RIG -.48 (4%), OAS -.29, OXY -.19, XOM -.19, HES -.52 and XLE -.40.

RETAIL, as mentioned above has a big week from tomorrow on.  With the rally in the XRT and some of the big names moving higher this looks to me to be set up for a fall.  We were mostly lower today with M -.68, JWN -1.31, KSS -1.65, DDS -3.09 (5.4%), terminal SHLD and JCP were both lower with losses of 7.9% and 7.2%, WMT +.38, GPS -.51, ANF -.21, TJX +.38, TGT -.71, NKE -.18, LULU -.27, UAA -.34, DKS -.55, and the XRT -.48 91.1%).

 

FAANG, were mixed today with GOOGL – 4.46, AMZN +3.67,  FB  +.19, AAPL -.85, NFLX  +3.35, TSLA  +12.81, NVDA -2.95, and we will add BA  +1.08, IBM -.88, BABA – 1.89 (we got stopped out of our small position on 50% down rule) since they will start trading futures on FAANG + these as well as BIDU +.60.

 

FINANCIALS, were lower with GS +.12, JPM +.31, BAC -14, C -.28 and the XLF +.04.  I mentioned on Thursday nights note that I thought that the decline in BAC has been excessive to my way of thinking (10+ %) and I am waiting to get long the calls.

 

METALS, GOLD continues to hold above $1,275 and now has crossed well above the $1,280 and closed +4, but Friday it was down $13 was up today to $1278, and has created great support from 1265 and has made 3 lower highs in the past 6 weeks.  I believe this could take off to 1308-10 and possibly t0 the $1,320.  Silver held over 16.80 and was +.17 and a break over 17.28 tests 17.40- 60. Copper is still testing 3.05-06 and has built a well-defined “FLAG”   but it doesn’t really break out until 3.18. Today it was + .045.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 11/9/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Some good news for Retail ??

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 10th

 

Today’s action was down from the start on Asian, followed by European, and our futures with fairly major declines.  I had to think about the word major since even at its worst the DJIA was barely 1% at the absolute lows. The closes were Dow -101.42 (.43%), S&P -9.76 (.38%), NASDAQ -39.07 (.58%) and the Russell -6.72 (.45%).  The only index to not rally but just got worse was the Transports -112. We took a nice gain on the BABA positions and when we were near the lows we rebought the calls (11/187.50s) and are up 50% on the new trade.  The strength in these names is beyond my expectations but when you make as much on the trade as we did and the stock starts coming back we follow along, just in a smaller (1/2 size ) position.  BABA was near the low of $101.08 when we got onboard and climbed back to close almost unchanged @ $185.13, and in late trading is $185.87.  The internals weren’t too bad with NYSE 1:1 volume and 9:5 in favor of the losers while NASDAQ was 1.5:1 and 4:3 lower.  All in all not a bad day.

 

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, (earnings), were all over the place with an early start for M, a        bear that took the stock +1.85 (10.5%), and KSS a bit of a disappointment, but after moving lower to under $38 rallied to close near the highs at $41.25 +.46.  Latter we got JCP +.26 (10.5%) followed by JWN +1.11 and also on the upper end of its range.  Some less fortunate were TTD which beat top and bottom and had “inline” guidance and fell from $65 to yesterday to a low of $50 and closed @ $52.97 for a 2day loss of over 18%. Disney missed top and bottom and fell from 102.68 to 97.78 before the conference call started and it rallied back from 5% lower to 1% higher.  NVDA reported and went from the NY close of 205.32 -3.84 to an extended hour close of $211.90+ 6. The resilience of these stocks is remarkable, and the buy the dip mentality is clearly in charge.  Even if people think that we “might” be near a top or at least a pull back, they still come in and buy them.

 

Oil, $57.17 + .36, and holding that range tonight @$57.03 -.14, but is still unable to move above $57.50.  The stocks are holding pretty well and were mixed with CVX+58, APC + 24, COP -.07, BP +.27, PSX-.13, MPC – 1.48, MRO -.05, RIG + 03, OAS +.04, OXY +.53, XOM +.61, HES +.48,  and XLE + .21.

RETAIL,  as mentioned above  was almost all higher, except for “terminal” SHLD -.10,  m +1.85, JWN +1.11, KSS +.46, DDS +8.58 (16%), KORS +.58, WMT +.06, GPS +.68, ANF +.46, LB +.87, TJX +1.27, TGT +1.63, TPR +.08, LULU +2.66 (4.3%), DKS +1.25 and XRT +.64.

 

FAANG, were lower  today with GOOGL – 10.47, AMZN -3.20, FB -.26, AAPL -24 NFLX -2.54, TSLA – 2.29, NVDA +2.74, and we will add BA  -1.19, IBM + .63, BABA >.10 since they will start trading futures on FAANG + these as well as BIDU –1.12.

 

FINANCIALS, were lower with GS-.72, JPM +.05, BAC -30, C +.16 and the XLF -.09.  The decline in BAC has been excessive to my way of thinking (10+ %) and I feel it’s worth a serious look over the weekend.

 

METALS, GOLD held above $1,275 and now has crossed well above the $1,280 and closed +4, and is -1.3 tonight and has created great support from 1275 and has made 3 lower highs in the past 6 weeks.  I believe this could take off to 1308-10 and possibly t0 the $1,320.  Silver held over 16.90 and a break over 17.28 tests 17.40- 60. Copper is still testing.05-06 and has built a well-defined “FLAG”   but it doesn’t really break out until 3.18.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

                        

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After the close 11/8/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

More bad news for Retail ??

Retail 10/9 Reports

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 9th

 

The market today was again unremarkable as the DJIA was up at a new high close and unlike yesterday it was followed by S&P500 +3.74, NASDAQ + 21.34 and the Russell followed with an up day at + 2.64.  Only the transports we lower by 40.  Today NYSE volume and A/D were both 1:1 and the NASDAQ was the same. We seem to be in a slow melting up.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, (earnings), both pre-open and after the close we had many big names report: While it reported yesterday, a couple reversed yesterday’s gains to give it all back.  WTW fell $6.02 (12) after a run up 4.90 yesterday, FPRX  was a round trip from yesterday morning trading $39, fell to 21.41 (-17) and today closed +4.58 (17%), LC missed and is tightening loan criteria  and was -4.59 (16), CTL  missed and even though the CEO said on the call that the dividend is safe (.52/Q) it fell as low as $14.09 and is now back to 15 -1.26 (7.7), ELF missed and fell as low as18 -2.63 (14%), ACAD beat and guidance was raised but I guess not enough since the stock  was $38 just 4 days ago and closed today $29.41 -3.05 (9.4%).  TSRO beat top and bottom line but fell 13.64 (12%), WEN missed and traded to 13.,87 before closing 14.50 (1.6%), and one last missed but the stock was up to a new all-time high +$37 (14%) and is up 500% since January 2016.  There were several beat to note with MTCH +2.58 (10%) and up 300% since early 2106, and has only been public since 2015, ROKU +5.31 (28%).  Also active on news OTIC met a trial end line result and traded from $2.80 to a high of $7.50 closing $5.45 +2.65 (48%).

 

 Oil, $56.81 -.39, and holding that range tonight @$56.93 +.13. The stocks are holding pretty well and were lower with CVX -.57, APC +.02, COP -.03, BP -.08, PSX -.034, MPC +.11, MRO -.41, RIG +.27, OAS -.24, OXY -.58, XOM -.18, HES -.87,  and XLE -.34.

RETAIL, was mostly lower with several reports for M, KSS, JWN, and JCP.  M -.03, JWN reports tomorrow was -.03, KSS +.02, DDS  +.54, KORS - .69, SHLD -.19 , JCP+.17 (7%) also reports tomorrow, WMT + 1.29, GPS -.04,ANF +.03, LB + 44, TJX  +.21, TGT +.50, DKS + .63, UAA +.07, RL + .43 and XRT +.07.

 

FAANG, was higher today with GOOGL +5.90, AMZN + 10.83, FB -.69, AAPL +1.94, NFLX + .86, TSLA -1.40, NVDA -3.38, and we will add BA - 56, IBM + .23, BABA -2.21 since they will start trading futures on FAANG + these as well as BIDU –2.21.

 

FINANCIALS, lower except GS +1.43, JPM -1.10, BAC -.40, C -.25, and XLF - .13.

METALS, GOLD held above $1,270 and closed +8, and Silver couldn’t move above 17.26 or fall below yesterday’s 16.92 and closed +$ .20. Copper tested $3.07 and closed the day up $.01 and is now unchanged.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 11/7/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

More bad news for Retail ??

“Death by AMAZON”

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 8th

 

The market today was particularly unremarkable, even if the DJIA was up at a new high close.  The rest of the averages didn’t fare as well as the S&P500 -$ .49, NASDAQ -18.66, and the biggest loser, Russell 2000– 18.87 (-1.26%) a major loss vs. losses of less than .25% for the others. The problem that I’m having is that the market internals don’t support the gains.  Today NYSE volume and A/D were both 1.5:1 negative and the NASDAQ was 1.1:1 and A/C 2.5:1.  AMZN took another arrow from its quiver and sent it into the furniture retailers.  RE, W, and WSM took it on the chin, but I’ll cover that below in the Retail Sector.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, (earnings), both pre-open and after the close we had many big names report: While it reported yesterday, RRGB continued to fall $19.35 (28%), also from yesterday was WTW +6.07 (13%).  Today we had a beat by VRX +2.05 (17%), CRC +1.91after $2.09 for a 2nd day (32%), AAOI was as high as $46.89 before coming back to 39.69 + $1.  We also had some notable losers, FOSL missed and fell as low as $4.85 before bouncing back to $6.14 - .71.  This is a “private label” watch maker for the Fossil brand and companies like KORS but is down from $12.59 in August and is down from $100 in February 2015.  SNAP missed and was down from $15.21 to 12.58 or 20% from the close. It is also down from its IPO with a high of $29.33 to $6.41, as well as LC -1.21 (20%), MNK -11.07 (35%).

 

Oil, $57.20 -.15, and holding that range tonight @$57.00 -.20.  The stocks are holding pretty well and were mixed with CVX -.04, APC -.95, COP -.35, BP +.03, PSX +.24, MPC +.76, MRO -.26, RIG -.13, OAS +.33, OXY -.07, XOM -.48, HES -.29,  and XLE -.09.

RETAIL, was mostly lower with the news that AMZN is going into the furniture business and W -3.79 (5.9%), WSM -2.08 (4.2%) although it was up on the day and traded @ $50, and RH also lower.  This is just another example of “Death by AMZN” following books, groceries, and music and movies for Prime members.  The term “Death by AMZN” was not my term, but there is an actual index by Bespoke that includes such names as Toys R Us, Payless, True Religion, Perfumania, Eastern Outfitters, Vitamin World, hh Gregg, Wet seal, and RadioShack, and those chapters were just YTD 2017.  Other retail was lower with M -.62, JWN reports tomorrow was -.96, KSS -1.72, DDS  -2.07, KORS + .02, SHLD -.24, JCP -.14 (5.5%) also report tomorrow, WMT +.04, GPS -.35, ANF-.21, LB -.64, TJX  +.02, TGT – 1.40, DKS -.19, UAA -.14, RL -2.40 and XRT -.94 (2.53%).                                                                                                                                                                                                  

 

FAANG, was higher today with GOOGL +10.17, AMZN +.97, FB -.17, AAPL +.15 NFLX -4.22, TSLA +2.89, NVDA +1.94, and we will add BA  +1.64, IBM + .46, BABA +.10 since they will start trading futures on FAANG + these as well as BIDU –1.06.

 

FINANCIALS, lower starting with GS -3.93, JPM -2.09, BAC -.65, C -1.29, and XLF - .27.

METALS, GOLD held above $1,270 but closed - 5, and is +$3.10 tonight.  Silver couldn’t move above and fell $ .29 but is also + .08 tonight .Copper lost $ .07 but is up .02 tonight.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM  

 

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.

After the close 11/6/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 7th

 

The market today was a little soft at the open with the futures reacted to the Asian and London markets.  We started with a move by Broadcom (AVGO) having a bid for rival QCOM.  Both stocks were higher on the news since it is more about the leverage that the combined entity would have against AAPL in the patent infringement brought by QCOM.  Next M&A deal was a non-deal from Softbank for the merger between TMUS and Sprint.  Both stocks gapped lower and while they may have recovered during the day but TMUS-3.37 (5.7%) and S-.77 (11%).

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, (earnings), Notable in their numbers, today was very busy. On the beat side was KORS +7.00 (14.7%), TXMD +1.38 (32%) after being up a $1 higher, CVS -2.45 (3.5%) beat but fell on news in the deal with AET.  WTW beat and the stock shot up to $51.98 and is currently 49.71 +4.91 (11%).  The misses were HSCI-7.60 (10%), TRIP -3.53 (10%), PCLN -180 (9.4%), RRGB – 12.65 (18%) after trading as much as $19 lower, TRUE -4.64 (27%), CAR -4.62 (11%).

 

Oil, $57.64 + 1.71, the next area of resistance goes back to May of 2015 when it closed $60.30.  I traded the SCO for a loss last week and I’m going to again, but I need to see how it trades foe a few days.  The stocks I follow were ALL higher with CVX +2.17, APC +2.30, COP +.78, BP +.86, PSX +1.10, MPC +.15, MRO +.76, RIG +.42, OAS +.85 (8.2%), OXY +.56, XOM +.57, HES +2.82 and XLE +1.64.

 

RETAIL, was mostly higher and helped by impressive  numbers from KORS +6.98 (14.6%), M -.20, JWN +.76, KSS +.27, DDS +1.00, SHLD +.08, JCP +.16, WMT -.89, GPS -.27, ANF +.08, LB +.86, TJX -.28, TGT -.06, TPR +.15, UAA +.39, DKS -.08, and the XRT +.06.

 

FAANG, and other big names were mixed to higher with GOOGL -5.49, AMZN +8.75 L, FB +1.37, AAPL +1.70, BFLX -.01, TSLA -4.09, NVDA +1.26, BA +2.55, IBM -.74.

 

BROADCAST/CONTENT, there was also a lot of talk about a possible deal between DIS and FOX.  It is NOT a merger but DIS wants certain assets and not others.  Unwanted is anything with FOX Sports since ESPN would be a problem with DOJ.  This first announcement was all the spark that was needed to set the group on fire.  Others mentioned in this frenzy were NFLX (why didn’t DIS buy this before it was so expensive), FOX, CBS (cord cutting helps them), VIA.B, and CHTR. I’ll start to cover this group and build my watch this week.

FINANCIALS, were lower with rates moving slightly down. GS -1.06, JPM -.52, BAC -.09, C -.30 and XLF -.03.

METALS, GOLD again held $1,266 and closed $1,281.60 +$11, Silver held $16.85 and closed today $17.23 +about $ .50 and having broken the sharp downtrend line it is consolidating before taking a shot at $17.50. Copper was closed + $4.00 and is looking like it wants to test $3.18-3.20.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 11/2/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

APPLE BEATS—NEW HIGHS IN LATE TRADING

 

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 3RD

 

The market today was the mirror image of yesterday, opening and moving lower and making the lows by 10:15 am.  It then spent the next 2 hours working back to unchanged, tested and made a higher low before moving to the upside and closing +81.28 (.40%) while S$P500 closed up a meager .49, and NASDAQ -1.59.  AND THEN AAPL REPORTED .  It had helped the DOW by $8.40, but now trading @ $173.50, it would add $40 to the Dow at the open tomorrow.

 

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, (earnings), Notable in their numbers, today was very busy. On the beat side was ESIO +4.75 (29%), BABA -.88 after a new high, SFM +1.61 98.53%), NBIX +11.85(19%), OCRX +.72 (72%), AN+7.05 (14.8%), RL +2.28 (2.55%) after trading up as much as $8, JUNO reported late last night and was +11.60 (24%) and got 2 upgrades this morning, OLED “crushed the numbers and traded to $154.90 then down to $147 but is now $149.90 +5.50 (4.4%).  There were plenty of “misses” included NWL -10.99 (26.8%), W -11.57 (15.5%) after a low of -17, SYMC-2.78 (8.6%),   APRN -.87 (18.6%, and 65% from its IPO on June 29), SBUX – 3.37 (6.3%), DISCA -1.85 (9.6%) with a miss and poor guidance on subscribers, CLVS -1.22 but closed 6 off its low after MS lowered their price target but kept its rating at overweight, DATA -9.83 (12%) and AXDX – 3.20 (16.5%).  

 

Oil, $54.54 +.24, last night I said that today would be important and although it was a fairly short inside range day, it did hold $54 again and closed up.  Tonight it is trading + .34 and that leaves only 55.24 as the new highest price since June 2015.  I’m not sure if it will make it or not, but I will be buying another 400 or 500 share lot of SCO as close to that top since it is the percentage play since this level has turned oil back to the downside 6 times in the last 13 months.  Several of the stocks are overbought and a pullback to midway between the highs and lows would generate a 10% decline and the SCO is 3X leveraged ETF.

RETAIL, was mostly higher and helped by impressive consumer confidence +47, ANF +.1 +.14, LB +3.48 (7.9%) TJX +.77, TGT +1.01, TPR +.36 (formally COH), UAA -.23, RL mentioned in the earnings section and XRT +.46.

FAANG, heavily covered over the past week and as seen in the headlines above was clearly the star of the day +6.49 (4%), GOOGL +1.34, AMZN -8.68, FB -3.61 (hurt by Zuckerberg stating that the amount they are spending on security to avoid the Russian fake news debacle would hurt earnings), NFLX +1.75, TSLA -21.64 (6.7%), NVDA-.29, and although they aren’t FAANG, BA+4.12, IBM-.68, and BABA -.23.

 

FINANCIALS, were slightly higher again with rates moving slightly higher.  GS +2.72, JPM +.75, BAC +.36 C +.85 and XLF +.25.

METALS, GOLD held $1,270-75 and closed +.80 after trading as high as 1,285, and is +$.80 tonight.  Silver held $17.00 and closed $17.13 -.03 and broke the sharp downtrend line I mentioned last night and is trading +$2.30 tonight.  Copper was an inside day and closed basically unchanged and is +$ .01 tonight.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

 

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After the close 11/1/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

EARNINGS GALORE

FOR TRADING NOVEMBER 2nd

 

The market ran to the upside right from the start today with AAPL and CLX helping the DJIA, on top of the Asian countries helped the futures overnight.  Japan’s election went to Abe and numbers from China were NOT bad. We spent the first 45 minutes racing to the highs of the day and then spent the rest going back to almost unchanged rallying on FED non-news and then closing about 2/3 down on the range but +57.77, S$P500 +4.10, NASDAQ -11.14 and the Russell -10.89.  Market internals on NYSE were slightly positive with volume 1.3:1 and A/D 15:14 while NASDAQ was negative 4:5 and 5:9  respectively.  I would expect that the earning for several big names that are much lower after reporting after the close will hurt NASDAQ in the morning.

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, (earnings), Both pre-open and after the close we had many big names report: GRPN beat bottom line but missed on revenues, but had larger than expected customer growth and closed +.30 (7.8%) and we own this one with both stock and option positions.  EVHC not only miss, but was also warning about billing issues and closed -14.57 (34%), EL with a beat was +10.31 (9.2), CLX  beat and after trading +$3.50 closed +1.49.  After the close we had FB trading 188, then 179 and last trade $179.25 -3, CAKE -3.15 (7%), SHAK traded up to $40.82 but finished $39 +1.85, while TSLA lost more than expected and last traded $304.90-16.18 (5%), QCOM beat but is facing the loss of AAPL for their chips and traded up to $56, down to 51and settled $54 +.57.  GPRO beat but had poor guidance and was $9.50-1.17 (10%) and YELP traded as low as $38.12 before closing 43.55-2.48 (5.4%), and Papa John’s PZZA was lower by 5.97 (8.5%) blaming the NFL for their lowered sales.

Tomorrow we get BABA numbers and we are long calls and written for a bull spread, so it should be an interesting day, followed by AAPL after the close, also in a bull spread very profitably.

Oil, $54.30 -.08, but not a great day from my point of view.  Last night I pointed out that we had a higher low and high, but today we trades into the resistance @ $55.22 and then fell to a lower low and closed down.  Tomorrow will be important, and we’ll see if it breaks 53.75. It is trading down just $ .02 and the stocks we up (except CVX -.03) with APC +.73, COP +.93, BP +.05, PSX +1.22, MPC +1.45, MRO +.53, RIG +.24, OAS +.71, OXY +.89, XOM +.49, HES +.30, and XLE +.77.

RETAIL, was mostly higher with M+.24, JWN +.60, KSS+.14, DDS +.69, SHLD +-.38, JCP -.14, WMT +.64, GPS-.01, ANF-1.49 (11% on downgrade), LB +4.96 (11% on earnings) TJX -.08, TGT-.04, TPR +.30 (formally COH), UAA -.52 (4%) and XRT +.23.

FAANG, heavily covered over the past week and AAPL earning tomorrow after the close was -2.32 after a new all-time high yesterday, GOOGL +6.34, AMZN -5.28, FB-.81 pre earnings, NFLX +1.56, TSLA-26.63 (8%), NVDA -.61.  Other big names BA+.03, IBM-.03, BABA +3.96.

FINANCIALS, were slightly higher as the dovish Fed and 10yr notes were soft with rates slightly lower yields.  GS +1.03, JPM +.31, BAC +.14, C +.60 and XLF +.04.

METALS, GOLD held $1,268-70 and rallied to close +$7, and is +$2.50 tonight.  Silver held $16.65 and rallied hard to close $17.17 +.48 and broke the sharp downtrend line I mentioned last night and is trading unchanged tonight.  Copper gained $ .0415 and is another $ .01 tonight.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

A GREAT PRE-PUMPKIN SURPRISE

 

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 31st

 

The market opened down this morning on several downgrades across several industries starting with MRK down from $64.52 last Monday and had its second gap down to close today @ $54.71-3.53 or another 6%.  This put pressure on all the drugs, as discussed below.  Morgan Stanley had a busy weekend pumping out down-grades including Macy’s and JCP.  Then there was AMD with poor results and even poorer guidance and has continued from last Tuesday from $14.25 to close today 10.89-.93 or another 8%.

The pain from even the most modest miss continues extreme.  We, however came in long AAPL 11/170 calls from $ .77 and closed today $3.15, and BABA 11/182.50 calls from $2.52 closed today $6.64.  Both of these trades were subject to our 100% Up Rule which demands you sell half @ Up 100% to take all the original costs out of the trade.

 

The rest of the market remained soft with DJIA -85.45 (.36%), S & P500 -8.24 (.32%), NASDAQ -2.30 (.03%) and the real damage showed up in the Russell -17.42 (1.15%) and the DJ Transports -128 (1.3%).  

 

SECTORS: OTHER NAMES IN THE NEWS, There was the news that LEN 55.68 -2.33 (4%) announced their deal to be the largest US home builder by buying Cal Atlantic CAA for $5.7 Billion.  CAA closed $49.07 +8.62 or 21%.

 

 

Oil, $54.15 +.25 after holding above the $52 - $53 range and the closing above $54 for the first time in quite a while.  I’ve included a weekly chart on the next page since this is at a critical juncture.  The Bollinger Bands, whose value I find very useful and was explained in the Weekly Strategies from last night, will generally choke off an advance or stop a decline is running along the tops of the chart.  OBV (on balance volume) is trending higher but has topped out in this area, and finally, momentum is also in an uptrend but also approaching its prior peaks.  I mention this since as I discussed last week I bought the SCO (inverse leveraged ETF) and promptly got stopped out.  Not a problem since I had a clearly defined risk and so the trade cost $ .47 / share, and I’ve made this trade 4 times this month for a net gain of $2,175 on 400 share lots.  You’re either “Right or Right out  !”

 

The group was mixed to higher with CVX +.88, APC-.80, COP +.26, BP +.62, PSX -.99, MPCX +.56, MRO +.34, RIG unch, OAS +.23, OXY-.09, XOM-.26 HES +.12 and XLE +.35.

 

THERE WAS A CHART HERE THAT SOMEHOW DIDN’T TRANSFER, IF IT INTERESTS YOU JUST EMAIL AND I WILL SEND YOU A COPY..

INFO@MONEYINFO-LLC.COM..

 

 

 

RETAIL, is a real mess  Starting with the downgrades for= M-.78 and JCP -.26 (8%), JWN -.78, DDS-1.39, SHLD-.10, WMT-1.07, GPS-.58, ANF-.61, TJX-.85, TGT- .51, DKS-1.50 VFC-1.46 JILL-.40 and XRT-.66 (1.8%)  

 

FAANG, were discussed last week on the earnings for AMZN and GOOGL. Tomorrow is AAPL. As I mentioned above, I have a great AAPL position and with it up $3.92 I took the opportunity to write the 11/175 calls against my long in the 170s.  The rest of the group acted well especially with the massive moves of last week with GOOGL-2.64, AMZN +11.50, FB +2.06, AAPL +3.92, NFLX -1.44, TSLA-1.77, and NVDA+2,24. Other big names were BA +2.88, IBM +.68, MA +1.18 (also reports this week).

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed with CELG +2.73, BIIB +8.06, AMGN-.78, REGN- 2.18, ALXN-.81, VRTX-1.11, VRX +.03, ISRG +2.31, ICPT +1.87, INCY-2.01, CLVS-.80, ABBV-1.07, GILD-1.08, TEVA +.31, MYL-.11, AGN-.18 and IBB +.60.  Also, since the market considers drug to be in this group I will include PFE --.15, (reports tomorrow), MRK -3.49 (6%) and mentioned on page 1, LLY-1.57, BMY +1.77, GSK+.52, ABT-1.37, and JNJ-1.78.

 

 

HEALTHCARE/INSURANCE were mixed with CI -4.22 92%), CNC-.60, AET-.24, ATHM +1.85, THC +.48, UNH-3.18, ATHN-.39, MOH-.48, HCA +2.33, and HUM-3.33

 

METALS, GOLD finished +6.10 and on very important support at 1,270 closing 1,277, SILVER + $ .09 a slow day and is supported in the $16.60-16.40 and has been in a sharp trend line.  A break over 17.00 would break the downtrend, and unlike the Oil, Silver is bouncing along the lower Bollinger Band. COPPER had a very short range inside again and has worked its way into a range $3.05-$3.20.

 

FINANCIALS, were lower as the 10 yr. US notes were up giving the banks a -.11.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 10/26/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

BIG EARNING BEATS FOR FAANG’S

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 27th

 

The market opened with this morning with the DJIA up 80 or so, and across the board good news.  Some of the old reliable names like DIS, DWDP, and HD helped it higher but it spent most of the day in a range and finished +71.  Unfortunately the internals didn’t show much with the NYSE volume was 1:1 and A/D 15:14.  NASDAQ numbers we negative with volume 2:3 and A/D just 1:1, although you can toss those comparisons out the window because after the close many were dramatically higher. So, let’s go to the video...AMZN beat and the stock is up $75 (7.5%), GOOGL beat and is +30 (3%), MSFT beat and is +3.08 (4%), MCK beat and was +11 until the President spoke about opioid problems and it went 19 off the high to close -7.84 (5%). Others in both drug, pharma/biotech, and medical stocks got killed with the beats unable to hold gains and fell pretty sharply.  I’ll address that in the Sectors section.  The one significant standout was AET, rumored to being sought after by CVS is currently trading $179 +18.48 (11.5%) after trading 184.98.  The price being bantered around is $200 or higher.  CVS was as low as 70.78- 4, rallied back to 74 and is now 72.60 -2.22 (2%).  We also added SJM 11/105 calls @ $1.70 yesterday on an order given on page 3 of the Market Letter.  These closed $2.00, and a new position today in BABA 11/170 calls @ $2.52 closed today $2.45.  This was before the big NASDAQ reported and BABA closed $3 higher at 173.39 with an intrinsic value of $3.39.

 

SECTORS:

 

OTHER NAMES IN THE NEWS, There are more earnings starting with a carryover from late news yesterday with BWLD +19.80 (19.5%) on earnings, and today’s from: ORLY, a miss that gapped down to 190 early but managed to close 214 +11.28 (5.5%),  CHTR a miss and fell 28.62 (8.3%), BIIB, a miss earlier in the week that had already fallen from 338 to as low as 301 but rallied as high as 320 before the ETFs that hold it sold off and it fell back to 305 and closed -7 again today,  CELG beat earnings but missed on revenues and added full year guidance lower.  This one fell $15 late last week and also gapped down and closed 99.99-19.57 (16%).  BIDU, missed and is now trading 232.60 -28 (11%).  GILD beat but some of the guidance was negative and concerns have arisen about its pricing from competitors and it is currently trading $74.82 -3.06.

 

Oil, $52.60 +.28 after holding the lows of 51.90 a rally to 52.86 we have a new recent high close over the 9/25 was $52.52, I am long SCO (leveraged inverse ETF) at $32.77 awaiting a break of the recovery high of $53.11.  Naturally the stocks continued but only slightly higher with CVX -.13, APC +.01, COP +1.51 (3%), BP -.13, PSX +.29, MPC +.83, MRO +.10, RIG +.07, OAS +.21, OXY -.73, XOM +.69 and XLE +.14. HES had earnings before the open Tuesday and it fell from $44.06 to $41 Wednesday and further today to $40.26 before recovering to close $41.28- .93. A subscriber with a position in HES asked my opinion and he bought the 10/27 (tomorrow) $43 puts @ $ .40 that protected his risk from a bad report and closed $2.41 today.

 

RETAIL, was continues to hold gains and added a bit more today with M +.06, JWN +1.10, KSS +1.04, DDS +1.33, SHLD +.30 (and still terminal in my opinion), JCP -.04, WMT +.17, GPS +.27, TJX +.03, TGT +.08, DKS +.51 and XRT +.16.

 

FAANG, were discussed above but if you own any of these big names that didn’t have earnings today they were GOOGL +27.54 (2.8%), AMZN +74.09 (7.6%), FB +2.65, AAPL +1.52, NFLX +2.93, TSLA +3.49, BA +1.08 and IBM +.40.

 

BIO/PHARMA, as mentioned above this group got hammered with CELG -18.91 (16%), BIIB-7, AMGN 7176.52 -.98 (after its beat top line but miss on Revs) near the highs after trading as low as 169, REGN -5.26, ALXN-5.94 (4.5%), VRTX -3.04, CLVS -2.29(3%) , AGN -3.34, and IBB -8.25 (3%).  There are some real values here but they were painted with the same brush as drugs and health groups.

 

HEALTHCARE/INSURANCE were mixed with CI +2.95, CNC +.37,, AET mentioned above was the standout on takeover news, ATHM-1.26, UNH +1.59, THC had a big miss and was near the lows @ $12.87 -1.30 (9%), ATHN +.10, MOH -1.09, HCA -2.70, and HUM +$6.05 after a study that showed that their method (healthy days) is a valid tool in their Medicare coverages with chronic conditions.

 

METALS, GOLD finished – 10 and on very important support from earlier this month at $1,262, SILVER down .11 on a slow day and is supported from here down to $16.00, while COPPER had an inside day down less than a penny and is on support here at $3.17.

 

FINANCIALS, were higher as the 10 yr. US notes were up again giving the banks a better margin on loans with GS +.44, JPM +.88, BAC +.21, C +.28 and XLF +.15.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 10/24/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 25th

 

The market roared open with two stocks leading the way.  CAT and MMM pushed the market higher with their big earning beats, and when we were +140 they were 100 of the gain all by themselves.  Market internals didn’t come close in supporting a 170 (.73%) move in the DJIA.  Volume was 4:3 and 1.5:1 on the NYSE and NASDAQ while A/D we 15:13 and 1:1 respectively.  The other indexes were higher but much lower on a percentage basis with S&P500 +4.15 or .16%, NASDAQ +11.60 or .18%, and the Russell +2.93 or .20%.  Special mention...GE has now given up its entire rally to make a new low close at $21.89 - .43 (2%).

 

SECTORS:

 

OTHER NAMES IN THE NEWS, earnings were a major feature today with the beats, SWK + 7.55 (4.8%), LLY -2.01 on poor outlook for a major drug, Pii +16.26 (15%), IRBT +5, AKAM +6.61, HNI beat but had a management change and was -7.91(18%), BIIB also beat top and bottom lines but the outlook for one of its drugs, Spinraza , showed pressure and closed $315.73 -12.82 (4%) after trading as low as $301.  UTX beat and traded +2.38 but reversed and finished -1.15, TXN beat and traded up but finished -1.30.  Misses were also reported in CNC -4.97 (5%), ACHC -8.14 (18.4%), T - .59, and WHR -19.24 (10.5%) on the miss compounded by a poor outlook based on their relationship on SHLD.  WHR makes Kenmore appliances, now offered on AMZN and falling sales at Sears.

 

Oil, $52.47 +.57 after trying the downside overnight (51.87) a rally to 52.55 a consolidation and a rally to new high for the day 52.62.  The high close on 9/25 was $52.52, so I did what I do and bot SCO (leveraged- inverse ETF) at $32.77.  Naturally the stocks continued higher with CVX +.19, APC-.05, COP+.73, BP+.18, PSX +.59, MPC -.11, MRO +.08, RIG ++.23, OAS +.11, OXY+.80, XOM +.23, and XLE +.13.  These moves were somewhat muted as they are approaching recent highs, HES -1.15 ahead of earnings preopen.

 

RETAIL, was mostly lower with M +.07, JWN-.16, KSS-.20, DDS -1.27, SHLD -.56 (8.5%), JCP -.08, WMT -.70, GPS -.02, ANF-.14, LB +.51, TJX -.46, TGT +.35, COH +.46, NKE .24, LULU -1.96, UAA -.66, DKS -.89, and XRT +.13. SHLD deserves some explanation; this is a failing company that has none of what it takes to compete.  It is not the “low cost” provider, it has given up Craftsmen tools, Kenmore, spun off Lands End,  and its stores are second-rate without sufficient help.  At some point Eddie Lampert will have to stop funding it and it will be gone. I may be wrong, and it could be nearing the bottom, but I have never seen a more terminal stock.  Maybe some of the “Nifty-50” that are gone eg. PRD, BHW, or EK.  For those under 60, those are Polaroid, Bell & Howell, and Eastman Kodak.

 

FAANG, were higher with GOOGL +2.95, AMZN +9,87, FB +.51, AAPL +.65, NFLX +3.03, TSLA +.32, NVDA +1.10, BA +4.68 (25 Dow pts), and IBM -3.90 with XLK +.17.

 

BIO/PHARMA, was lower with CELG -2.07, BIIB -14.44 (4.4%), AMGN -.16, REGN -6.25, ALXN +1.46, VRTZ +.05, VRX +.05, ISRG -2.03, ICPT -3.75, INCY +.56, CLVS +.18, SRPT -1.97, AZN-.34, ABBV -3.11, GILD -.03, TEVA -.24, LABU -2.05, AGN -4.77 and IBB-2.87.

 

HEALTHCARE/INSURANCE were mixed with CI +.51, CNC -4.79 an (Earnings miss), AET -1.39, ATHM-.80, UNH +1.12, THC -.49, ATHN -1.62, MOH -.01, HCA -1.18, and HUM +.36.

 

METALS , GOLD  was quiet and finished +2.30 , SILVER down .11 on a very slow day,  while COPPER  rallied to resistance at$3.24and managed an up day +$ ,01 and is currently $3.1975.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 10/23/2107

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 24th

 

The market opened unchanged to slightly higher but gave up the gains with the FAANG stocks leading the way.  For a while the only two that were up at all were NVDA and AAPL, but by the late afternoon those moved lower too.  Giving up most of Friday’s recovery for GE melted away and it was down $1.51 (6.34%) and in the extended session it touched Friday’s low of $22.10.While the technical bounce on Friday was an oversold favorite from the past was tradeable, the fundamentals are unchanged.  Many pros that I speak to are concerned with a dividend cut (the bad news) or elimination (the really bad news) since if they eliminate it entirely all ETFs and funds that require a dividend will have to sell pretty much immediately.  The real question is “GE: value or value-trap?”

 

SECTORS:

 

NAMES IN THE NEWS, two names that are on opposite sides of the same pre-market news are DBVT -20 or so early opened 24.37 and traded to $22.33 but rallied to close $28.32-19.75 (41%) after having disappointing results for a peanut allergy drug; and AIMT who has a comparable drug for the same class of drug and opened $35.55, traded to $37.50 and settled $32.94 +7.28 (28.3%). STX was higher on positive earnings and +4.41 (12.6%), HAS beat top and bottom lines but expressed some doubt about Toys R Us prospects  

 

Oil, $51.90 + .06 with a narrow range. Continues to be unable to breach $52.50-53, is supported near 51.25-50.75.  The stocks were mixed to higher on the stability with CVX +.30, APC -.89, COP =.15, BP +.19, PSX +.44, MPC -.99, MRO -.33, RIG -.01, OAS-.34, OXY-.42, XOM +.13 and XLE -.35.

 

RETAIL, mostly higher again with M +.08, JWN -.38, KSS -.74, DDS+.72, SHLD +.01, JCP +.15, WMT +1.12, GPS +.24, ANF +.26, LB -.25, TJX -.23, TGT +.93, COH -.55, LULU +.6, UAA -.61, DKS + .50, SKX  +.11 with its earnings beat from Friday when it was +9.96 or 41%. And the XRT +.12. Also in the news in this group was PETS which beat top and bottom lines and was up 20% pre-open and finished the day $43.41 +6.67 (18.15%)

 

FAANG, were lower lead down by a general weakness in the group with GOOGL -18.09, AMZN -16 .85, FB -3.35, AAPL -.17, NFLX -1.68, TSLA-7.09,NVDA-.35 and XLK after making a new high close finished -.29.

 

BIO/PHARMA, was lower with QURE – 1.45 (7.5%) when after good new last week decided to do a $5 million offering, CELG +1.03, BIIB -7.85, AMGN -1.11, REGN +1.02, ALXN -5.22, VRTX -3.55, VRX -.10, ISRG +3.42, ICPT +.66, CLVS -1.75, AZN-.07, ABBV -1.10, GILD -.91, TEVA -.36, LABU (3X ETF) -3.44 and IBB -3.96.

HEALTHCARE/INSURANCE, CI +1.98, CNC +1.75, AET .65, ATHM +.34, UNH -.56, THC +.09, ATHN +.58, MOH + 1.85, HCA-.29, and HUM +.34.

 

METALS , GOLD found support at 1,275 and closed basically unchanged, SILVER supported at $16.87 and rallied to close  about unchanged,  while COPPER  also found support # $3.25 and is currently $3.22.

TOmorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 10/19/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 20th

 

The market opened lower on the overnight weakness around the world and negative news on AAPL.  We bought more of the AAPL 11/170 calls and lowered our average cost to $ .77.  However, AAPL wasn’t the only bad news, with the oil falling 1.5%, UAL missing numbers and issuing poor guidance and moving lower to $59.78 -8.21 or 12%, and weakness in the UK and Catalonia.  UL missed and fell to $56.04- 3.82 (6.4%), VZ had higher earnings and rallied to close +.56 after trading $2 higher.  AGN is trying to hold the Nov/Dec lows around $182 and bounced back to close 189.27 +2.12, while ABDE (up sharply last night) continued higher on its positive guidance to 171.73 +18.73 or 12.2%.

 

SECTORS:

 

OIL, $51.51 -.75 (1.4%) continues to be unable to breach $52.50-53, is supported near 51.25-50.75.  The stocks were mixed with CVX -.23, APC -.10, BP +.03, PSX +.15, MPC +.35, MRO -.03, RIG -.14, OAS -.02, OXY +.21, XOM unch, and XLE -.20.

 

RETAIL, mostly higher again with M +.04, JWN -.21, KSS +.23, DDS+.21, SHLD +.01, JCP -.02, WMT +.23, GPS -.05, ANF +.16, LB -.12, TJX +.11, TGT +.25, COH +.01, LULU+.37, UAA +.24, DKS -.02, SKX (SKECHERS) closed 24.03 had an earnings beat and is trading $29.54+5.51 or 19%, and XRT -.11.

 

FAANG, were lower lead down by AAPL -4.16 (2.6%), FB -1.59, GOOGL -10.90, AMZN -9, NFLX -.34, TSLA -8.10, NVDA +.12, BA -1.27 and IBM +1.47.

 

BIO/PHARMA, was mixed with CELG -8.87 after discontinuing its trial of a Crohn’s drug, ISRG reported a beat but fell from $357 to 347.75 -10 in extended trading, BIIB -2.16, REGN +1.57, ALXN +.22, VRTX -16, VRX +.09, ICPT +.21, INCY-.87, CLVS -1.17, SRPT-1.42, AZN +.03, ABBV +.46, GILD +1.49. TERVA +.32, MYL +.78, and IBB-3.62.

 

HEALTHCARE/INSURANCE, CI -1.44, CNC +1.16, AET +.21, ATHM -.10, UNH -2.23, THC +.36, ATHN -8.77 (7.3%) on better earnings but poor forward guidance, MOH +.55, HCA +2.34, and HUM +1.38.

 

OTHER NAMES IN THE NEWS, GE earnings before the open, PYPL +3.50 on earnings beat, NCR - 3.76 (10%) earnings miss, CARG 28.23 after trading 35 on IPO last week.

 

METALS , GOLD +$7.00, SILVER +.25, COPPER - .015.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 10/18/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

New highs for DJIA, NASDAQ, & S&P500

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 19th

 

The market opened higher this morning with IBM taking the lead on last night’s earnings.  The stock opened $157 +10.41 (biggest gain since 2009), and continued to move higher adding $70 Dow points.  It closed 159.55 +13.01 or 9%. GS also came back to life and added $5.93 (2.5%) and also helped the DJ-30 and by the close these two added 130 points to the 160 gain.  Market internals for NYSE spent the day around 1:1 on both volume and A/D while NASDAQ was a little better @ 7:5 and 9:5 respectively.

 

After the close we had earnings on AXP beat and the stock traded up to 94.50 before an announcement of a CEO change.  The stock fell to 91.02 and is currently 91.75-.33.  Ebay followed with a slight beat but the market didn’t like guidance and the stock fell back to 35 and is now 36.36 -2 or about 5.5%.  ADBE didn’t actually report but gave increased guidance of 2018 and the stock which closed 153 is now $163 +10 or 6.5%.  This is similar to CREE, whose CEO this morning said the company was evaluating their business and making necessary changes to move the company forward.  The stock closed $34.16 +4.82 (16.4%).

 

Also in the news was SPPI who said that they have gotten “significant anti-tumor activity” in its current Phase 2 trials.  It closed $19.67 +5.21 (36%).  Others in Bio / Pharma were lower with CELG +.11, BIIB +.09, REGN -3.19, ALXN -2.92, VRTX-.29, VRX-.44, ISRG-.63, ICPT-.36, INCY-.50, AZN -.13, ABBV +3.87 (4.2%) on news of a collaboration in immune-oncology company.  AGN was – 10.21 (5.1%) was lower on the news that its patent on Restasis had been invalidated and IBB (bio EFT) was -1.62.

 

Retail added to yesterday’s gains with M +.20, JWN +.56, KSS +.33, DDS -.25, SHLD +.26 (4.5%), JCP +.09, LB +.61, TJX -.50, TGT -.07, COH -.17, LULU +1.03, NKE +.30, DKS +.91 and XRT +.25.

 

Oil was up +18 on another short range day.  We got stopped out of both the SCO and the calls.  Trouble for the group started overnight with the news that the fires in southern California had hit one of the refineries and CVX was -2.07 (1.7%), APC -.13, COP -.11, BP +.03, PSX (also a refiner) -1.76, MPC +.24, MRO -.19, RIG -.46 (4.2%), OAS-.06, OXY -.01, XOM -.24 and XLE -.48.

 

We also rolled our position in AAPL forward to the November calls and sold the 10/155 calls (cost 1.72) at $5.15.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 10/17/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

22,000-23,000 IN 53 DAYS

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 18th

 

The market opened slightly higher but a reversal in GS from +3 to unchanged and then lower took a bit of wind out of the sails, and by 11:00 we had made the low for the day in the DJIA and S&P500.  By 1:30 we had tested the low and we headed to Dow 23,000.  The close was 22,977.44 +40.48, and the S&P 500 also had a new close of 2559.26 + 1.72.  Market internals were soft with volume 1:1.3 and A/D 3:4 lower on NYSE and worse on NASDAQ 5:6 and 5:9 respectively.

 

The biggest change today was the Bio/Pharma and drugs having a massive reversal from yesterday’s loses with BIIB +8.79 (2.6%), ALXN +2.32, AMGM +6.70, ISRG +1.45, VRTX +.35, ABBV +1.13, GILD +.29, TRXC  who I reported yesterday got an FDA approval for a robotic surgical robot +1.33 (47%),and IBB +2.16.  Healthcare had major gains with CNC +4.08(4%), AET +4.81, UNH +11.07 (5.7% a major help to the DJIA), ATHN ++4.67 (4%), THC +.69 (5.3%), HCA +1.63, and HUM +3.26.

 

Oil was higher, lower then back to unchanged.  We bought SCO and watched it go +1.00 and back to close -.18 but still a slight profit.  My opinion is that we are at the top of the range in oil and we bought the SCO at a price that if we’re wrong it isn’t costly.  The stocks were mixed with CVX +.09, APC +.45, BP -.50, PSX -.24, MPC +.79, MRO +.11, RIG -.23, OAS +.17, OXY -.46, XOM -.01 and XLE +.04.

 

Retail was higher, though I have no idea why with M +.06, JWN +.60, KSS +.44, DDS +.30, SHLD -.21 (3.5%), JUC +.01, WMT +.35, GPS -.65, LB +.23, TJX +.63, TGT +.02, COH -.52, MKE +.67, LULU +.75, UAA +.06, DKS +.45, RL -.04, VFC +.50, JILL-.11 and XRT +.29.

 

The big names were mixed to higher with GOOGL +.69, AMZN +2.85, FB + 1.88, AAPL +.60 (we still own the 10/155s), NFLX -3.38, TSLA  +4.75, BA -.1.23 (near the high after a deal between Airbus and Bombardier) and IBM with the 22nd quarterly revenues miss but so small earning gain at  154.72 +7.89 (5.3%).  Financials were also lower on the back of the GS reversal with JPM -.30, BAC -.05, C +.38, MS              +.18 after trading 1.50 higher.

                                                                                                                                         

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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Pre-open 10/17/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

PRE-OPEN COMMENT

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 17th

 

I am putting this out this morning because as I was thinking about this during Monday Night Football I realized I had not included the big name stocks or covered the NFLX earnings and reaction.

 

The Company reported a slight beat on both Revenues and Earnings and the number of new subscribers was 5.3 million.  The stock was trading at the new all-time high of $202.68 +3.09 (1.6%).  It traded immediately after the news to $210.79 and at the end of the extended hours it was $205.30.  The options markets were calling for as much as a 7% range but it seems that the real numbers were Goldilocks, not to hot and not too cool.  This morning it is trading $201.95 -.88.

 

This morning GS reported and was a beat, the stock is currently 455.30 +2.89 and the futures are mostly unchanged in the indexes and gold (we got stopped out on the 50% Down rule) is down $15.70 and oil is $52.32 + .18.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 10/16/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

NEW HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 17th

 

The market opened higher this morning with the oil and foreign markets leading the way.  Also, AAPL got an upgrade and that helped push the DJIA.  It’s hard to believe we were just talking about 22,000 and 22500 and we closed at 22,956.96 almost at the absolute high and up 85.24.  The S&P500 and NASDAQ also closed at new highs, but the Russell could only manage +.02 and no new high close.  The internals were 1:1 for both volume and A/D.  The weakest indexes were Transports and Utilities, both lower.  PCG, (Pacific Gas & El.) was lower again today as a consequence of the Northern California fires.  We don’t know for sure if they bear any responsibility, but the company issued a statement on Friday that they had “only” $800million in coverage.  PCG closed today $53.43-4.29 (7.4%) after trading as low as 49.83, and down from $70 (28%) less than a week ago.

 

Also, the weakness spread across the retail sector yet again when JWN said they are having trouble arranging financing to take the company private and still have the family retain control.  The stock was -2.40 (5.7%).  Also in this sector and with bad news was SHLD -.85 (12.6%) on the news that Fairholme Capital owner of 27% of the outstanding has not disclosed any sales yet. The rest of the group was lower with M -.32, KSS + .72, DDS -1.76, JCP -.04, WMT- .88, GPS -.05, ANF -.02, LB-.56, TJX-.90, TGT -.68, COH-.32, DKS +.03, and XRT -.38.

 

Also on the negative side today were Healthcare and drugs.  Almost all were lower after the President spoke at a press conference and discussed the disparity between drug prices within and outside the U.S.  CI was -1.16, AET -1.62, THC -.24, ATHM +.47, UNH +1.96, ATHN -.34, HUM -.58.  One of the medical devices company’s received an FDA clearance of its robotic surgical device was TRXC +1.66 or 113%.  The best known name in this area is ISRG -7.29 (2%).

 

Bio/Pharma was mixed with AMGN -1.11, REGN +4.76, ALXN +.61, VRTX +1.79, VRX -.43 (3.2%), ICPT +1.31, INCY +2.29, SRPT-.07, AZN+.04, ABBV +.24, GILD -1.22 TEVA -.27, MYL +.23, LABU +.80, and IBB +.47.

 

Oil had a good day touching $52.37 and closing 51.87 +.42.  This is getting back to the top end of the recent range and I will be looking to buy the SCO ( 3X inverse ETF) if it tests that high again and fails.  The group was higher with the exception of PSX -3.56 on a downgrade from Jefferies, CVX, +.97, APC +.66, COP +,23, BP +.05, MPC -.65, MRO +.10, RIG +.21, OAS +.19, OXY +.04, XOM +,40 and XLE +.15.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 10/12/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

HMNY & AAOI GET THEIR Friday the 13th Early

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 13th

 

The market opened slightly lower and tried 3 or 4 times to break above unchanged by fell from the weight of the financials and retail.  After both JPM and C had earnings beats they both fell with C -2.59 (3.3%) and JPM -.84.  The rest of the group followed with GS -2.65, BAC -.41 (1.6%), and XLF -.22.  Retail continued what can only be termed a collapse.  With the exception of WMT +.31and TGT +.98 all the rest I follow were down, including M -.27, JWN -.72, KSS -.90, DDS -.83, SHLD -.13, JCP -.13 (4%) GPS -1.25 (4.4%), ANF -.12, LB -.10, TJX -1.30, DKS -.44 and the brands: COH -.03, NKE -.53, LULU 0-2.06 (3.2%), UAA -.02, RL -.02, VFC -.10, and JILL -5.06 (51%).  The XRT was also lower by .51 or 1.3%. The beauty care retailers were also lower with ULTA already down from$314.86 in June fell another 29.75 or (7.85%), and SBH also down from $30 fell .37 and is testing lows not seen since 2012.

 

Oil tried to rally but failed at $51.13 and fell as low as $50.15 but came back to close $50.60 -.70.  The group was mixed with CVX -.04, APC -.66, COP +.27, BP +.13, PSX +.66, MPC unch, MRO unch, RIG -.11, OAS -.22, OXY unch, XOM -.29 and XLE -.18.

 

Last night I told you about HMNY and how it was headed for a major fall when it closed +5 @ $32.90 after trading as high as $38.86.  My comment was that only reason that I wasn’t short was because it had not options and was too dangerous to short the actual stock and I said I’d be surprised if it held $20 for the next week.  The high today was $30.20 and the close was $20.50 -12.40 or just 38%, and vs. yesterday’s high near 40 it is down approximately 50%.

 

Names in the news today were Car Guru (CARG) had its IPO over the expected range of $13-15 at $16.00. It opened @ $29 and traded as high as $30.19 and closed $27.58 for a gain of 71%. AAOI wasn’t as fortunate and was trading halted at the close and put out a miss and lowered guidance and reopened @ $46, and traded as low as $43.05.  Last is $46.68 -14.76 or 24.6% and the high was $103 as recently as August.  

 

Another name in the news was SPARK (ONCE) which got a favorable comment from the FDA for a treatment for those born blind at birth.  The news came right after the close (86.20 unch) and reopened @ $92 +5.80 and is $91.64.  The only issue is the price, currently estimated @ $1,000,000.

 

Finally, the big names were mixed with GOOGL -.53, AMZN +5.95, FB -.22, AAPL -.71, NFLX +.45, TSLA +.54, NVDA -.84, BA +.47, and IBM -.59.  The internals were close to meaningless with volume on NYSE 1.2:1 down and A/D 15:13 up and over on NASDAQ at 10:9 down and A/D 4:3 respectively.

 

Getting back to one of my favorite markets, Gold was never even unchanged today and closed $1,296.50 over the last two days action and +$7.60.  Silver looks good to me but has to trade over $17.30 and can try to breach $17.45.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 10/11/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 12th

 

The market opened unchanged today and spent most of the morning churning within a dollar or two of unchanged.  A little later we rallied to new highs but was quietly higher.  Even the Fed minutes did little to help or hurt.  The movement was provided by a good bond auction and late day strength in oil. As I’ve mentioned before, I can’t buy the oil up here and will have to wait for a continuation higher to the top of the range ($52-53) before buying the SCO (reverse Oil ETF) for the move back lower. As I have said before, I’ll continue to do this until it doesn’t work. As to the broader averages, the internals were pretty flat with volume 1:1 and A/D 4:3 in both the NYSE and NASDAQ.

The oil sector followed the price of the commodity but is now starting to show which companies can make money with the price of oil between $45-54.  The first is CVX +.47 today but breaking out over its recovery high from late 2016 and the next highs of 2013 seem attainable.  Others in the sector were APC -.02, COP +.41, BP +.04, PSX +.21, MPC-.03, MRO +.06, RIG +.06, OAS +.18, OXY-.14, XOM +.33 and XLE +.16.  We have discussed this in the past, these companies are often thought of as a way to play the raw price but in fact have massive value in equipment with which to do their business.

 

Without question the prize for most hated sector goes to Retail. The only ones on my list that were up were WMT +1.66 (and +$6.83 or 8.5% this week), TJX +.30, and TGT +1.61. The list of losers is long and familiar with M -.16, JWN-.46, KSS-.05, SHLD-.49 (7/3%), JCP-.09, GPS-.28, ANF-.22, LB-1.01, COH-.90 and XRT- .56.  Besides my normal list the athletic subset was also miserable with NKE-.58, LULU-.62, UAA-.34, DKS -1.94 (7.2%) and cut in half in the past month, RL-2.02, VFC -.16, and fresh off lowered guidance, JILL-3.85 (38%).

 

I’m going to skip the Bio/Pharma group tonight I’ll just say it was lower with the IBB-1.58 and move onto AERI, a bio that has been public only since  2014 and moved to new all- time highs today @ $64.30 +8.95 (16%) on a new glaucoma treatment.  Also in the group is ARDX, getting positive stage 3 trials reported success after the close, moving from $5.20 as high as $9 and now trading $7.35 +2.15 (42%).

 

Also in the news is the continuing move by HNMY, discussed yesterday and since Monday up from $14.52 to hit another new high today of $32.90 +5.01 or 18%.  As far as I am concerned, this one is headed for a fall.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t trade options and the risk on an outright short sale is just too dangerous, that said, I’ve seen enough of these parabolic moves to know it requires either a pullback or an outright collapse.  I’d be surprised if this on hold $20 over the next week.

 

Gold had a quiet day and after the recent couple of day is normal.  Tonight it is trading $1,295.80 and if it breaks the high from Tuesday (1296.70) it may challenge $1,305-1,320. Both silver and copper are following closely.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 10/10/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 11th

 

The market gapped up at the open and spent the rest of the day testing last nights close and working higher.  We were at new all-time highs (again) and market internals were 1.5:1 up volume on both and NYSE slightly better than the NASDAQ on the A/D with 2:1 and 9:5 respectively.

 

Most of the excitement was about the P&G shareholder voting where the company seems to have won the battle with Nelson Peltz for a board seat.  When the voting was closed it was the slimmest of margins, 10million votes, which may seem like a solid win unless you have 2.7 Billions shares outstanding.  Both sides spent a fortune to defend their positions and unfortunately the PG shareholders paid the tab.  I said seems since Trian (Peltzs fund) has asked for a certified third party count since 0.04% is basically a rounding error.  What is more important is the fact that a 50/50 split is not exactly a mandate for the current board. After opening @ $92.32, and traded within a couple of cents of that, when the results were disclosed the stock traded down to $89.86 -2.29 before rallying back to close down only $ .50.

 

While all this was going on, WMT had an investor day and all of the plans for easier returns, more online presence, and basically anything else to move it forward was rewarded with a major breakout from yesterdays’ move with a gap of $1.25 at the open and a continuing move to a new high of $84.88 and a close of $84.13 +3.60 (4.7%).

 

Oil was again a feature with a hold of yesterday’s short range day and moved from $49.54 to just over $51, closing $50.92 +1.34.  This puts it back in the upper end of the range between here and $51.50-52.  The stocks were higher with CVX +1.09, APC-.45, COP +.28. BP +.35, PSX +.15, MRO +.04, OAS-.09, OXY +.50, XOM +.23 and XLE +.07.

 

Beyond the WMT info above, the rest of retail was mixed with M +.31, JWN-.16, KSS+.21, DDS-.58, SHLD -.18, JCP-.02, GPS-.03, ANF-.01, LB +.78, TJX-.78, TGT+1.40, COH +.32, and XRT +.11.

 

Stocks in the news included HMNY, mentioned yesterday up 33% continued to $27.89 +6.80 or another 32%, a 12Xs increase from 9/14.  MNKD was 6.71 +1.38 on upgrades and an article in Barron’s with a target price of $7.00, and it is up from $2.00 in the 8 days ago when it disclosed that holders of warrants had privately agreed to take stock in exchange for those wts. ANAB was the big winner today with the stock closed $70.41 +35.41 or 101%.  The company disclosed positive “proof of concept” for a new drug for inflammation and the phase 2 trials.

 

Gold was higher again and traded up to $1,296 +8 and with a little more help from the US$ can rally to $1,305-1,320.  GLD was +.38, SLV +.15, and copper was up about $ .028.

 

Financials were barely changed with GS unchanged, JPM +.78, BAC +.08, C-.22 and XLF +.13.  The big names were generally lower with GOOGL-4.51, AMZN-4.49, FB-.95, AAPL +.02, NFLX-1.97, TSLA +12.56 (3.7%), NVDA +3.36, BA +2.54, and IBM +1.13.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM 

   

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After the close 10/9/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 10th

 

Today was 6 ½ hours of boredom with the market open and the banks and bond markets closed.  We were roughly unchanged at the open and sold off a bit as GE continued lower and GS getting a downgrade from Credit Suisse and weighed heavily on the DJIA.  Volume was light and slightly negative on NYSE and 1:1 on NASDAQ.  The A/D on NYSE was 4:3 down while NASDAQ was 1.5:1 up.  The numbers are not really as important as they would be on a normal volume day.  However, the volume had little to do with the drag on the Dow from GE -.96 (4%), GS -3.22 (1.3%), and COST -2.48 in addition to its -9.98 (6%) on Friday.

 

Naturally the futures markets were also slow with the Oil having only a $.65 range today rather than the $1.60 it had on Friday, with a minor rally after Friday’s decline.  The sector was higher with CVX +.68, APC +.22, COP +.05, PSX +=.42, BP +.20, MPC +.01, MRO +.03, RIG + .20, OAS +.03, OXY+.09, XOM +.32, and XLE+.18.  The issue of “decertification” of the Iran deal is one of the main issues as they will still cheat and increase production.  This will be necessary if sanctions are reinstated.

 

In the financial sector without the bonds closed and no real direction we were lower with the GS downgrade we were lower with GS -3.22, JPM -.29, BAC -.37, C-.23, and XLF -.05.

 

The big names were barely moved with the exception of TSLA -12.88 on the news that there are still production problems on the Model 3 and the fact that they delayed the unveiling of their electric semi-trucks.  The others were mixed with GOOGL -2.11, AMZN +1.21, FB +.27, AAPL +.39, NFLX -1.15 after being +3 and at a new all-time high of $199.40, NVDA +4.15, BA -.08, and IBM +1.21.

 

Retail was down yet again with the exception of WMT (news about new return system for online purchases in the stores) was +1.62 (2%), M-.38, KSS -.35, DDS -.96, SHLD -.03, JCP -.15 (4%), GPS -.50, ANF -.83 (6%), LB -.75, TJX -.35, TGT -.92, COH -.15, and XRT -.81.

 

Some other names in the news were VIA.B -1.73 (6.4%) on a downgrade, HMNV +5.34 (33%) but up from $2.38 only 3 weeks ago on reaching an agreement for a security purchase agreement to retire debt, and CLNT $6.52 +3.20 (96%) after trading as high as $8.25 on an agreement to sell not less than 51% of the outstanding.

 

We got stopped out of the small position in COH, and we were unable to buy the FXE calls, which traded within $ .04 of our price (.64) and closed $ .85 +.15.  The Gold had an outstanding day with GLD +89 and the options I’ve selected to trade closed 1.58 +.56.  We are also long UTX +.12 (our option are purchased @ $.86, and half sold on +100% rule, are now trading @$3.83 and we have no cost.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 10/5/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

More New Highs

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 6th

 

The market opened a little higher this morning and continued to make yet another set of new highs and closes.  The transports did not follow due to FDX trading down to $217.77 before rallying back to close + .30. UPS had the same kind of rally but couldn’t make it to unchanged.  They were both lower on the news that AMZN was moving forward with its own delivery services for 3rd party sellers.  Also in the news was MNKD for the 3rd 20%+ day in a row.  While we don’t usually write about $1 stocks but it’s hard to ignore a move on big volume from $1.82 to $6.51 in a week.  The company has a diabetes med that the FDA has favorably updated prescribing information.  Also mentioned in this space on Tuesday was CLS which had a breakthrough on an Ovarian cancer that moved 300% to $6.06 and has since given up about half that move.  I mention these kind of situations because they are interesting, not to endorse trading them.  As a rule they are small companies that may or may not continue higher.  An example was Dendreon, which had a breakout drug Provenge for prostate cancer some years back.  The stock rose over a 2-3 month period from $2 to $40 before it failed to get the drug to the market and fell 66% in one day and ended up going bankrupt in 2014.  All I can say is “Live by the sword, die by the sword.”

 

In earnings news COST reported after the close and beat top and bottom lines and immediately traded @$170.50 +$3 before turning down to $163.25 -4.  YUM China (YUMC) reported a slight miss on earnings but a beat on topline and traded +$2 but is now 41.25 +1.33.

 

The sector of the day was Bio / Pharma with BIIB +11.82 (4%), AMGN-1.74, REGN +6.35 (after being +20), ALXN +1.86, VRTX -.21, VRX +.21, ISRG +4.78, ICPT 72.50+3.77 (5.5% but down from 122 in the last month), INCY -.26, CLVS +1.25, SRPT +.48, AZN -.12, ABBV -.90, GILD +1.09, TEVA -.41, MYL +.12, LABU +1.05 and IBB +.53.

 

The FAANG stocks came back today and with the exception of NVDA -.17, they were strong across the board with GOOGL +17.97, AMZN +14.55, FB +2.67, AAPL +1.91, NFLX +10.45 (on a price rise, not the same result as the last time when it collapsed), TSLA +.10, BA +3.22 and IBM +.24.

 

The oil held yesterday’s low and rallied to close $50.79+.81 and the stocks were mixed with CVX+.19, APC-.37, COP +.39, BP -.04, PSX-.10, MPC-.06, MRO-.02, RIG +.22, OAS +.14, OXY-.04, XOM +.41 and XLE +.31.

 

Retail was strong again with M +.37, JWN +.55, KSS +.43, DDS -.42, SHLD +.10, JCP +.05, WMT -.09, GPS +.59, ANF +.10, LB +1.82 (4.4%), TJX +.16, TGT -.41, COH +.09, and XRT +.31.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 10/4/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 5th

 

The market opened a little lower this morning on the overnight weakness in oil and the miss in European retail sales and Spain’s problems with Catalonia.  After 30 minutes of sideways action we again clawed our way to the highs of the day (new all-time highs) we spent and sometime testing yesterday’s close we got fairly quiet for the rest of the day.  We had the ISM non-manufacturing index come in at 59.8 vs. 55.5 expected and the highest read in over a decade (2005).  This indicator correlates roughly 81% of the time so today’s reading was a real boost.

 

Later in the day the oil inventories fell more than expected but gasoline had a major build, and this along with the report that OPEC raised production by 120,000/day last month, and it took the oil from slightly higher to breaking Monday’s low near $50 to down with a close @ $49.89. This was enough to turn the oil stocks lower with CVX -.24, APC +.15, COP +.07, BP -.05, PSX -.20, MPC-.17, MRO -.14, RIG -.10, OAS -.35, OXY +.40, XOM -.05 and  XLE -.05.

 

The most interesting news today was premarket announcement that the FDA had granted MYLN the right to one of TEVA blockbuster drugs earlier than expected. TEVA traded down and closed $16.08 -2.74 (14%) while MYL went the other way and closed 37.80 +5.27 (16%).  The drug in question produced almost $4Billion last year and if TEVA produces a generic the cost would be discounted about 40%.  Another name with the same class of drug is MNTA -2.40 after trading as low as-4.00.  The rest of the sector was mixed to higher with BIIB-2.47, AMGN +1.36, REGN -2.58, ALXN +.45, VRX +.05, ISRG +11.01, ICPT +2.74(+4.2%), INCY -.59, CLVS -.69, SRPT +.32, AZN +.09, ABBV +.50, GILD -.79, LABU +1.30, and IBB +2.61.

 

Another group with bad news was the bond insurers stuck with $70Billion in Puerto Rican debt.  The big losers are MBI $7.95 -.73 (8.4%) and down from $10.27, AMBC -1.00 (5.5%), and AGO -1.11but -4 in the past week.

 

Another news story was the short recommendation on SHOP -13.51 (11.5%) by Andrew Left of Citron. The stock was a new issue in May of 2015 and has risen from $18.48 from 2/2016 to just over $123 3 weeks ago.

 

Finally, the big names were mostly higher with GOOGL-4.31, AMZN +8.84, FB -1.41, AAPL -.94, NFLX +5.46, TSLA +7.74, NVDA +.34 and the financials went the other way even with rates creeping higher with GS -1.32, JPM -.92, BAC -.15, C -.01 and XLF -.09.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 10/3/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

NEW HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD AGAIN !!

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 4RD

 

The market opened a little higher and marched up all day and closed a new highs.  If that sounds familiar, it’s because I didn’t bother to change my opening from last night. The difference from last night is the Oil, which yesterday I discussed as holding, and today we had a short range “inside day” and failed to make any headway.  Tonight we broke $50, if only by a couple of cents.  If things don’t improve by morning I expect to see downside towards $48-49.  The stocks were mixed with CVX +.39, APC -.11, COP -1.13, BP +.26, PSX +1.25, MPC +.24, MRO +.13, RIG -.08, OAS -.06, OXY -.13, XOM -.07, and XLE -.07.

 

One of the groups that I’ve avoided of late, the metals, looks like it may have spent enough time declining and may be oversold enough to have a tradable rally.  We went from $1210 up to 1362 ($150) in 10 weeks and followed it by a 5 week decline to 1270 or roughly a 2/3 decline. Silver has the same round-trip, and only the platinum has had an almost 100% pull back.  The momentum lower has slowed and I will be looking at the GLD in the support around $120.  The option play will be either the October or November 121 calls depending on how quickly the trade comes together.

 

The big names were again mixed and underperforming with GOOGL +4.61, AMZN -2.09, FB +.49, AAPL +.69, NFLX +2.54, NVDA +.40, BA -.34 and after being down $10 earlier TSLA closed +9.80.

 

Some of the stocks in the news that were up sharply were CLSN @ $6.06 +4.55 or 300% on news of a dramatically successful trial for an Ovarian Cancer drug.  It rose an additional .76 in late trading.  ECYT rallied to close @ $3.63 +2.22 or just 157% and rallied further to $4.46 + another .82 yesterday and was followed today with an additional $2.55 (62%) today.  On the downside was ROKU, a new IPO just 4 days ago at $14 and traded $29.80 but closed 20.81-2.75 (12%).  TTS warned on sales and fell to $8.45-4.75 (36%) and has fallen from $22 in the last 10 weeks.

 

Financials had another up day as rates rose again slightly.  GS +1.18, JPM +.49, BAC +.24, C +33, and XLF +.09.

 

Retail had a mixed again as was Bio / Pharma.  The market still seem like it favors rotation and continues to grind higher as the internals continue strong but not excessive.  Today’s NYSE had 2:1 volume and 4:3 A/D while NASDAQ was slightly softer 9:5 and 4:3 respectively.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 10/2/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

NEW HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD

 

FOR TRADING OCTOBER 3RD

 

The market opened a little higher and marched up all day and closed a new highs.  The DJIA has made the trip of over halfway to the next round number.  One of the three sectors that failed to participate was the FAANG stocks with GOOGL -6.25, AMZN-3.30, AAPL -.37, NFLX -4.05, and FB-1.39.  The next countertrend sector was Retail with the early morning edition of that stellar local paper, the New York Post, broke the story that the fundraising for taking JWN private has faltered.  That sent the group lower with JWN-2.99 (6.3%), M -.94, KSS-1.05, DDS -2.46 (4.3%), SHLD -.20, JCP-.17, WMT +.32, GPS +.02, ANF +.28, LB +.39, TJX -.33, TGT-.12, COH +.39 (we are long the 10/40 calls) and ZRT -.02.

 

The market internals were positive but not excessive with NYSE volume 2:1 and the A/D 9:5 while NASDAQ 2.5:1 and 2:1 respectively.  As mentioned in this Weekly Strategies market sentiment is still nowhere near bullish enough to top us out.  Also mentioned was my commentary on the trading range for Oil being closer to its highs than lows.  After a blow off day last Thursday near $53, we should test 46-49 and we tried and held $50 today and rallied a little bit.  The group was mixed with CVX -.27, APC +.53, COP +.26, BP -.06, PSX +.77, MPC-.19, MRO +.02, RIG -.45 (4%), OAS +.02, OXY-.10, XOM-.47 and XLE -.02. If oil continues to hold $50 we can see further upside.

 

The best performance was Bio /Pharma with BIIB +3.05, AMGN +.85, REGN +15.12 (3.3%), ALXN +.63, VRTX +.19, VRX +.18, ISRG +14.60, ICPT +.96, INCY -1.55, CLVS -2.04, SRPT +4.14 (9.1%), AZN +.40, ABBV +1.69, TEVA +.87, GILD +2.43,LABU +4.33(5.0%), and IBB +5.66.

 

Financials also rallied with the higher yield on the U.S.10yr notes.  GS +3.80, JPM +1.32, BAC +.29, C + 1.16 and XLF +.22.

 

Before the open today CALM had earnings with a slightly smaller loss fell almost $3 preopen but after the conference call rose from $38.51 to $42.50 and closed $41.65 +.55.

 

And on an 8K filing, ECYT rallied to close @ $3.63 +2.22 or just 157% and rallied further to $4.46 + another .82.  This was a positive 3rd stage trial for a process for treating prostate cancer.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 9/28/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 29TH

 

The market opened a little lower and traded sideways for the first hour before starting a slow quiet day of moving higher.  The DJIA was +40, NASDAQ +.19, S&P500 +3.02, but the Russell was +3.92 and Transports +45, the last two at new record highs.  Internals were positive with NYSE and NASDAQ volume of 4:3 and A/D 8:5.

 

The Oil rallied to resistance, as discussed here repeatedly and I bought SCO (3X inverse oil ETF) at $32.49 using the low of the as a stop.  The options lack liquidity so the Options account did not participate.  The oil traded at a recovery high @ $52.86 before turning lower and closed $51.56 -.60 and 1.30 off the highs.  The stocks in the sector were mixed with CVX +.29, APC -.18, COP -.12, BP +.40, PSX -.01, MPC +.23, MRO -.18, RIG +.12, OAS -.03, OXY -.19, XOM +.06 and XLE +.06.

 

The Disaster du jour was DXCM -22.03 (33%) on news of a positive result on a new drug by its main competition, but that was an isolated incident with the group mixed to higher with AMGN +.67, REGN -.32, ALXN -1.11, VRTX +.55, VRX -.88 (4.7%), ISRG +1.37, ICPT +.24, INCY +4.09, CLVS +3.26, SRPT +.75, AZN +.26, ABBV +4.21 (5%), TEVA -.48, LABU (3x long ETF) +4.02 (5%), GILD -3.07 (3.6%) and IBB +.62.

 

Some other stocks in the news were ITCI which came from 8 in May to 22 earlier this month registered to do a $150Million share offering has fallen back to 15, ZYNE $9.44 +3.25 (52%) and traded as high as $11.28 on positive results of a trial using cannabinoil (yes, from pot).

 

On the earnings front BBRY +1.22 (13%) on better than expected, TSN +1.21 (7.5%) on better guidance, and HAIN + .28 after being +$4.

 

Retail was soft with M -.09, JWN -.04, KSS -.40, DDS +.26, SHLD +.31 (4.5%), JCP -.08, WMT -.44, GPS -.18, ANF -.19, LB +.64, TJX -.24, TGT +.11, COH -.05, and XRT -.23.  We will know soon enough who made out best on “back to school” shortly as the quarter ends this week.

 

GOOGL +4.91 and AMZN +5.23 added to yesterday’s gains but most were lower with FB +1.14, AAPL -.62, NFLX -1.43, TSL -.27, NVDA -.13, BA -1.01 and IBM-.10.  Financials were slightly higher with GS +.76, JPM +.20, BAC +.06, C +.41 and XLF + .04.  All were higher earlier in the day but the rates on the 10yr Bonds fell and flattened the yield curve.  They still look like a group to be in, but I’ll wait until I see whether they hold the gains or fall back.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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Before the open 9/28/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 28TH

 

Wednesday’s market was a replay of Tuesday with one exception, we closed at the highs.  Volume was strong as we opened higher, spent part of the day declining and testing the lows and then rallied hard for the close.  The laggards were a feature with the Transports catching up and going to a new high and high close.  T

 

This morning (had a power issue last night) the futures are about flat with the exception of Oil, which has continued higher and is $52.86 +.54 but is into overhead resistance from here to $54.00-54.50.  I have not yet bought the SCO (3X levered bearish oil ETF) but I have my eye on it daily.

 

We had some major disasters including VERI, a recent new issue being panned by a report from Andrew Left at Citron calling it a fraud, trading from $75 to close -19.96 or 30% down at $45.95, and ITCI adding 150 Million new shares and down 2.57 (14%) on the news.

 

Also lower were the “Athletic” stocks led by NKE -2 on earnings and guidance taking UAA, FL, and FINL while the NCAA issues hurting ADDYY (Addidas) and the rest of the group.

 

Sorry for the shortness of this note, we will be back to the normal length tonight.

 

 Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 9/26/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 27TH

 

After yesterday’s sharp decline in the big names I was expecting to see some follow thru this morning, but the futures were up overnight and we opened up.  I am always suspicious of this type of action and I decided to lower our risk profile by selling off half of the AAPL, and wrote some UTX 117 calls against our position in the 115s.  We also sold half of our CTL calls on the 100% Up Rule.

 

The markets moved higher and many of the stocks left gaps that were tested but never broke back to the downside.  All of the indexes were up with both the D.J. Transports and Russell2000 made new highs and closed there.  Only the DJIA was lower and only by $11.70 (.05%).  Market internals were okay with both the NYSE and NASDAQ volume at 1.2:1 and the A/D 4:3 positive.

 

The oil tested yesterday’s gain and while it did hold, it finished lower @ $51.88-.34 and is trading higher by .20 this evening.  The stocks also “rested” and while lower did not do anything out of the ordinary for a market up almost 13% in under a month.  CVX -.47, APC -.05, COP -.09, BP -.37 PSX +.34, MPC -.13, MRO +.29, RIG +.23, OAS +.04, OXY -.14, XOM -.08 and XLE -.02.

 

Retail was slightly higher with M +.09, JWN +.21, KSS +.06, DDS -.30, SHLD +.03, JCP +.05, WMT +.28, GPS +.16, ANF +.10, LB + 1.65, TJX -.05, TGT +.04, COH +.55 and XRT +.26.

 

One group that was soft again today was Bio /Pharma, and it started early in the pre-market trading with AXON.  The company had a failed trial for an Alzheimer’s drug and was around $7.00 -17.00.  The range for the day was 7.40 to 6.33 and it closed at the low -17.92 (73.9%). The group as a whole was a bit lower with BIIB -.45, AMGN -.69, REGN-3.18, ALXN -4.26, VRTX -.64, VRX +.01, ISRG -.07, ICPT -2.21(and making a new low down from 100 in the last 4 days and from 122 this month), INCY -.54, CLVS -3.62 (4.7%), SRPT +.44,AZN -.65, ABBY -1.27, LABU -2.81, TEVA +.11,  and IBB -3.07.  Two more names RGEN -6.24 (14%) and PTCT -2.70 (14%) both on failed NDAs.

 

The big names were higher at the open but with the exception of AAPL +2.71, most closed closer to the lows than highs, with GOOGL +2.60, AMZN -1.17, FB +1.37, NFLX +.88, TSLA + .06, NVDA +1.34, BA -.62 and IBM +.69.

 

After the close we had earning from NKE.  It was a slight beat but the guidance was not what was expected so after trading up to $55.59, it is now $51.82 down $2: MU had earnings, also a beat but traded +1.50 to -2.00 and currently +1.00.  Earlier cruiselines CCL and NCL both rose on CCL’s numbers and they were both +2%.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 9/25/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 26th

 

We were lower right from the start today with most of the weakness showing up in the FAANG stocks.  Their momentum has dried up and they have fallen fairly steeply, even for this group.  AAPL – 9%, AMZN -13%, FB -8.3% but -4.5% just today, GOOGL – 8% but sitting on support around 915-920, and NFLX – 6.8% but 4.5% today.  The other names in the group all lower with GOOGL -8.98, AMZN -15.31, FB -7.64, AAPL -1.27, NFLX -8.80, TSLA -6.10, NVDA -7.72 (4.5%), BA -2.13 and the only gainer, IBM +.74.

 

The oil was higher again by $1.59 (3%) and the stocks were all green today with CVX +.70, APC +1.10, COP +.90, BP +.42, PSX +1.12, MPC + .80, MRO +.40, RIG +.71 (7.3%), OAS +.49 (7.6%), OXY +1.64, XOM +1.06, and XLE +1.01.

 

Most of retail was higher with the exception of the one I bought, COH -.80, although we got the calls on the lower opening,  M +.28, JWN +.44, KSS +.14, DDS -.38, SHLD +.02, JCP -.08, WMT -.38, GPS +.76, ANF +.04, LB +1.25, TJX +1.38, TGT -.44 and XRT +.40.

 

Some other stocks in the news were TTWO – 5.22 on the possibility that one of its new games was going to be released 9/28 but as with most rumors it was “sell the news,” LH -4.75 @ 150 after being down another 4.

 

Health and health insurance was soft with AET -1.59, UNH -1.28, TCH -.93, HUM -1.88 and HCA -1.97.  And the precious metals were higher on the North Korean news with gold +16 and GLD + 1.34, NUGT +1.74, SLV + .18, HL +.02 while the base metal copper was slightly lower.

 

So, we bought the COH calls, and we hold UTX calls, AAPL calls, and the CTL calls (which are a hair away from 100% Up Rule trigger.  We also own both CTL and GLYC in our stock account and CTL +.80 (4.3%) and GLYC +1.25 (9%).

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 9/21/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 22nd

 

The market finally showed red at the close for the first time in 10 days.  As unusual as 9 in a row is, it has happened 3 times year to date.

 

As far as sectors went today, Banks were a little higher, Retail was down again, but as to the disaster du jour was in Bio / Pharma.  ICPT -22.82 (23%) received a “letter of warning” from the FDA about “serious liver injury” with Ocaliva, their drug for a rare chronic liver disease.  While this was a brutal loss, it looks like a walk in the park compared to VSAR @ $3.55 -18.05 or just 83%.  The rest of the group was also mostly lower with BIIB -3.97, AMGN -1.53, REGN -4.72, VRTX -.66, VRX +.14, ISRG -16.16 (only 1.45%), INCY +.18, CLVS +2.31(3%) , SRPT -.33, AZN -.08, ABBC -.16, LABU -1.83, TEVA +.05 and IBB -1.48.

 

Retail was in the red, again, with M -.29, JWN +.06, KSS -.06, DDS -.20, SHLD -.16, JCP -.03, WMT -.57, GPS -.15, ANF +.04, LB -.28, TJX +.40, TGT -1.11 and XRT -.20.

 

Oil spent the day consolidating a little higher and looks like it wants to make an assault on $52 or so, but the big news was that the APC plans to buy back $1Billion worth of stock in the next 3 ½ months, and $2.5 B between now and the end of 2018.  The stock traded +4.26 to $49.07 or 9.5%.  The rest of the group was mixed to higher with CVX +.18, COP +.37, BP +.52, PSX +.07, MPC -.06, MRO +.31, RIG - .67, OAS -.26, OXY +.26, XOM -.46, and XLE +.02.

 

As is usual for a Jewish holiday the volume was light and the market drifted higher and lower all day.  The market internals were slightly negative with the NYSE 4:3 down volume and A/D.  Over on NASDAQ they were slightly worse with volume 2:1 down and 4:3 A/D.  The big names were also mixed with GOOGL -.01, AMZN -9.66, FB -1.17, AAPL -1.95, NFLX +3.41, TSLA -7.43, NVDA -5.29, BA +.95 and IBM -.52.

 

Gold was much lower at $1,291, down for the last 10 days from the high of $1,358 or roughly 5%. Silver fell from $18.30 to $1685 or 7%, while copper fell almost 8%. The moves in the US$ has hurt the first two but copper is an excellent gauge of economic activity and clearly copper needs watching…

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 9/20/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 21ST

 

Well, today’s market was up from the start and closed at new record highs again. The DJIA now has a 9 day run from 21731 to 22412 or roughly 2%. The S&P500 has not had  the same run (days wise) but it too is up around  2%.  NASDAQ is the laggard and did not close at a new high today.  The Russell is close, but also not at a new high close, and although not even near a new high, the Transports were up 147 today +1.55% on the back of FDX, which was down $8 last night after the earnings report never came near those lows and finished the day +4.50 and $9 from those lows.

 

The Fed had little to say and the market was lower until about 3:45 before rallying into the close.  The financials took their cue from the bonds and GS +.86, JPM +.56, BAC + .20, C +.17 and XLF +.15.

 

Oil held again and rallied to close +.69 and is slightly higher tonight, and the stocks continued mostly higher with CVX +.15, APC +3.15 (7.2%), COP +.68, BP +.25, PSX -.02, MPC - .10, MRO +.47, RIG +.35, OAS +.41, OXY +.92, XOM +.33 and XLE +.45.  I’m still not a believer in the “higher oil” story so I’m looking at the SCO as a buy vs. $51.50-52 oil.

 

Retail was lower again with M -.26, JWM +.01, KSS -1.50, DDS -1.04, SHLD -.07, JCP -.07, WMT +.35, ANF +.06, LB -1.79 (4.6%), TJX -.40, TGT -.15 and XRT -.11.  We failed to buy the XRT puts at my price but I’ll look at it again over the weekend.

 

ALNY led the way for the Bio /Pharma group with news that they had positive results on a new drug and traded +$38.80 (51.7), and the group was mostly higher with BIIB +1.07, AMGN +1.85, REGN +5, ALXN +.09, VRTX -.28, VRX +.33, ISRG +.79, ICPT +1.93, INCY -2.59, CLVS -.97, SRPT +.73, AZN +.13, ABBV +1.04, LABU 4.02, TEVA -.03 and IBB +3.70.

 

A couple of stocks with news were BBRY + .75 (8.2%) on news that it was chosen for a major fleet operator, AAPL -2.48 on some negative reviews of the IPhone 8 and the Series 3 watch (something that happens on every upgrade cycle, and AMD closed @ $13.74 +.62 (4.7%) but announced it is working with TSLA on an A.I. chip for its self-driving car and it rallied an additional $ .86 to increase the gain to over 10%.

 

The internals were slightly positive on both the NYSE and NASDAQ at roughly 1.2:1 volume and 4:3 A/D.  The big names were mixed with GOOGL +10.68, AMZN +3.14, FB -.24, AAPL -2.48, NFLX -.09, TSLA -.94, NVDA -8.26, BA +3.38 and IBM +1.48.

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 9/19/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 20th

 

Well, today’s market a study in making sure you are in the right group at the right time.  While the DJIA, NASDAQ, and S&P500 all made new highs, you didn’t feel it if you were in a small-cap (Russell -.68), or the transports -7 and well below its highs. Market internals were just about 1:1 on both volume and A/D for both NYSE and NASDAQ.

 

Oil was back to resistance around $51 and couldn’t move any higher and it came back down and closed $49.90 -.45.  The oil stocks showed some disconnect with CVX +1.15, ACP +.04, COP +.46, BP +.30, PSX +1.18, MPC +.62, MRO ++.03, RIG +.06, OAS +.12, OXY +.06, XOM +.13 and  XLE +.27.

 

Earnings after the close were disappointing with a beat for ADBE which traded as high as $159 until the guidance was posted and we are now $151-5.60.  FDX missed and was down 8 but came back during the conference call and is now down only about $3.  BBBY missed and is down $3.50.

 

The auto second market stocks were also lower again with AZO beating but after a rally to $583.89, declined to $535 and closed there -28.21 (5%).  Following it down were AAP – 3.73 (4%) and ORLY went from $216 to close -7.17 (3.4%).

 

A sector with gains today was Telecommunications, a laggard this year.  Talk about a Sprint (S) being bought by T Mobile (TMUS).  S was +.52 (6.77%) while TMUS +3.62 or (5.9%).  VZ was higher by $1.25 (2.6%) and T + .79 (2.1%).  This group has been weak due to the “race to the bottom” for rates and unlimited data plans.

 

Retail was weak again with the possible exception of KSS +.49 but on its low after being $2.30 higher based on an agreement with AMZN to allow returns at Kohls locations.  The rest of the group was mostly lower with M -.38, JWN -.54, DDS -2.59, SHLD - .22, JCP -.18 (4.4%), WMT unch, GPS +.16, ANF -.06, LB -.75, TJX -.59, TGT +.26 and XRT -.79 (2%).

 

The big names were mixed again with GOOGL +6.35, AMZN -4.69, FB +2.43, AAPL -.20, NFLX +.96, TSLA -10.30, NVDA -.85 after being +4, BA -.34, and IBM -.14.  Financials were a bit higher along with the 10-Yr. notes.  GS +1.37, JPM +1.02, BAC +.16, C +.56 and XLF +.19.

 

GLYC, mentioned yesterday was up again today @ $14.67 +.70 (5%).  I will issue a sell stop level tomorrow via the texting service.  We are still long UTX, short SPY, and we repurchased CTL calls @ $ .26 that we sold last week @ $.68.

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 9/18/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

  

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 19th

 

Well, today’s market was up from the start and closed at new record highs again.  As mentioned in today’s Weekly Strategies, the move away from the underperforming FAANG stocks and into the industrials was evident this morning with a gap up in CAT (+$2.55 or 2 ½%) on an upgrade from UBS and BA, as industrial as it gets continued its 10 month rise of well over 100%.

 

The big names were mixed with GOOGL -5.98, AMZN -11.39, FB -1.09, AAPL -1.18, NFLX +2.65, TSLA +4.99, NVDA +5.64 but $6 off its intraday high, BA +4.33 and IBM -.42.  Oil was little changed but did not give up the gains from last week and the stocks continued to gain with CVX +.42, ACP -.02, COP +.58, BP +.06, PSX +.64, MPC +.91, MRO -.01, RIG +.14, OAS +.14, OXY +.74, XOM +.03 and XLE +.28.

 

Retail was lower across the board with M -.51, JWN -.19, KSS - .37, DDS -.28, SHLD - .17, WMT - .29, GPS - .09, ANF -.16, LB -.56, TJX - .85, TGT - .88 and the XRT -.19.  I tried to buy the XRT puts this morning but the early rally failed to push them low enough to buy them.  We’ll see how the market acts but the order stays @ $ .58 or better.

 

On the upside today we saw NBRV was up over 100% premarket and opened @ $13.20 +6.34 on a positive trial for a new drug for pneumonia, and traded up to $14.10 before closing $9.40 on a late 8K filing for an offering $80 million of ordinary shares.  AAOI was +7.99 (13%) on no specific news.  On the downside, UBNT was down 4.33 (7.9%) after being as low as -$7 on the news from Andrew Left of Citron Securities who has published a report saying that the company was a fraud.  Since 2016 this one has moved from $25 to $68 and today’s move is just the culmination of a 4 day move from $65 to $48.  One more name that was up strongly on no news was GLYC +2.15 (18%).  This is a company with strong partners and several “break-through” treatments and involved with cancer research.  We own this one for a couple of months and while it’s hard to buy any stock after an 18% day, I’m happy to sit with it and see what develops with the company.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 9/14/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

ALL TIME NEW HIGH CLOSE FOR DJIA !!

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 15th

 

Well, today’s market was pretty much unchanged to lower at the open again but the balance of what traders wanted has switched from the big name NASDAQ and Financials to the DJIA.  It was the only index that continued on to new high closing prices with the likes of CAT, DWDP, BA, and DE all higher.  Others like MCD, down hard a couple of days ago was also higher but also CVX, MRK, and UTX were the big gainers.  We are long UTX October 115 calls and they closed +.93 or 134%.  Our 100% Up Rule trigger is $1.72.

 

Another downgrade for auto rental companies by Morgan Stanley pushed HTZ -2.97 (12%) and CAR -2.55 (7%).  The credit reporting agencies were under heavy pressure with EFX -2.34, TRU -.69 (only 8% off highs and FICO -5.36 (3.9%) also only 8% off highs.

 

Bio /Pharma was weak again today unless you owned HALO +2.80 (21%) getting a licensing deal with BMY, or ALDX +4.45 (70%).  The rest of the list was lower with BIIB -.39, AMGN -.26, REGN +4.12, ALXN -1.37, VRTX -3.42, VRX -.12, ISRG -.51, ICPT- 3.34, INCY -3.87, CLVS -.75, SRPT +1.44, AZN -.02, ABBV +.78, LABU -.55, TEVA -.50 and IBB -1.97.

 

Oil was higher again closing at $49.89 +.59 after trading as high as $50.50.  The stocks were higher with CVX +.17, ACP +.06, COP +.27, BP +.32, NPSX -.11, MPC -.82, MRO +.02, RIG -.02, OXY +.04, and the XLE +.32.  This market sector looks stretched and overbought to me and I will take a serious look at the SCO (reverse and levered ETF) for a pullback.  Retail also took a day off and most stocks were slightly lower after a great run.  M -.26,JWN -1.00, KSS +.41, DDS -1.11, SHLD +.02, JCP -.06, WMT -.23, GPS -.42, ANF +.10, LB -.06, TJX -.28, TGT -.16 and XRT -.31.

 

As mentions last month in my special report, the FAANG stocks continue to underperform with GOOGL -10.31, AMZN -8.80, FB -2.10,  AAPL -1.54, NFLX  -1.34, TSLA +10.77 (not a FAANG),  NVDA -1.16, BA +4.47, and IBM -.78.  Gold was lower during the day but managed to close up with GLD +.62, NUGT +.62, SLV -.04 and Copper was lower for a drop from $3.18 to $2.94 in the last 9 days.

 

After the close we had earnings from ORCL, who beat on both the top and bottom lines.  The stock reacted up on the news but is now -$2.00 on the conference call.  This morning CBS – 2.36 (4%) reported a decline in subscriber base.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 9/13/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

ALL TIME NEW HIGHS AGAIN !!

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 14th

 

Well, today’s market was pretty much unchanged to lower at the open  and spent almost the entire day climbing to unchanged and stayed there until the last 15 minutes when it broke through and closed higher by fractions.  Those of you who are dinosaurs like me remember that stocks used to trade in fractions.  Market internals were barely ahead in either market but NYSE volume ran 1.5:1 positive.

 

Oil was again a feature, holding yesterday’s close and rallying on the drawdown numbers and ran to the first sign of overhead resistance around $49.50.  There is plenty of supply in the futures between where we closed ($49.32+1.09) and it gave another lift to the stocks with CVX +1.69, ACP +.04, COP +.63, BP +.24, PSX +.62, MPC -.56, MRO +.25, RIG +.42 (4.7%), OAS +.70 (9.4%), OXY +.77, XOM +.27, and XLE +.83.

 

Retail got another boost today on the announcement made by JWN that they had secured $1Billion to help fund taking the company private.  It closed +2.70 after last night’s +$5, M +.60, KSS +.31, DDS +.04, JCP +.10, WMT +.26, GPS +.61, LB +.96, TJX -.04, TGT +1.71, and XRT +.43.

 

The big names were mostly higher with GOOGL +3.77, AMZN +18.92, FB -.06, AAPL -1.31, NFLX -1.48, TSLA +3.15, NVDA +.74, BA +1.42 and IBM +.34.

 

Financials were slightly higher led by GS +.41, JPM +.26, BAC +.39, C +.61, and the XLF +.04. Equifax is a semi financial and it has problems that don’t want to go away.  Last Thursday it closed $142.72 and was followed by the announcement of a substantial hack of accounts.  This was a dramatic acknowledgement since its business is a treasure trove of information on millions of people’s most important financial information.  The stock has been down all but 1 day in the last 4 and today closed $98.99 -16.97 or another 15%.  The total 4 day decline is $44 or 31%.  While many may look for this one to bounce, I can’t believe it’s worth the time or risk.  This seems to me to be a direct challenge to the very core of the services EFX provides and the company should have taken much greater steps to keep it secure.

 

The Bio / Pharma stocks were lower with VNDA -1.5 on news of a failed new itch drug, SAGE which was lower by 12 yesterday fell another 6.03 (7.9%), LOXO +11.48 (15.3%) on news of positive clinical data, BIIB -4.78, AMGN-1.50, REGN-7.48, ALXN +2.39, VRTX-.02, VRX-.33, ISRG-2.24, ICPT -6.54 (6.5%), INCY +.42, CLVS +.17, SRPT +.69, AZN -.72, ABBV +.25, LABU -.01, TEVA -.43 and IBB -1.12.

 

Others in the news were IRBT-15.79 (16%), THC +2 (12%) on news it may be for sale, and WDC -3.04 on a downgrade.  Some support coming back into the auto second market stocks with AAP +2.48, AZO +17.79 (3%), and ORLY +8.74 (4.3%). With all of the auto stocks getting a lift from the hurricane damage, this group, while still lower may be set for a stronger reaction as they are all down from 35-50%.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 9/12/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

ALL TIME NEW HIGHS !!

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 13th

 

Well, today’s market was slightly higher on the open and after a little backing and filling it worked its way to S&P500 of 2496.48 and closed only .29 off the highs.  NASDAQ also closed at a new high, although not a new absolute high.  The DJIA got to a new closing high, also by a fraction of a dollar while the Transports and Russell 2000 were higher but nowhere near their highs.  Market internals were solid and not excessive with both NYSE and NASDAQ A/D 1.8:1, while volume was 2.5:1 on NYSE and only 1.5:1 on the NASDAQ.

 

Oil continued to hold the $47 level and closed up @ $48.28 and is currently (8:42pm) up another dime.  The stocks higher with CVX-.03, ACP +.41, COP +.4, BP +.14, PSX +.54, MPC +.02, MRO +.10, RIG +30, OAS +.29, OXY +.37, XOM +.17 and  XLE +.40.

 

There were several up and down stories in the Bio /Pharma sector.  SAGE was -12.12 (13%) on a failed drug report but actually closed $9 from its low, ICPT-15.46 (13%) but $8 from its low, while ALDX +1.45 (34%) had a favorable result for  drug for dry eyes.  ALDX was actually up in the premarket and traded as high as $7.50 (75%).  Other movers were BG -4.31 (5.7), HIIQ -3.60 (15%) after being -6 (21%) yesterday and DWDP (the new Dow / DuPont) which was +$1.67 today and $2 yesterday on news of a breakup into 3 separate units.

 

Retail got another boost today (mostly late trading after the close) on the announcement made by JWN that they had secured $1Billion to help fund taking the company private.  It traded +4.78 (10%) on the news while M +1.32 (6.15%), KSS +.92, DDS +4.48 (7.7%), SHLD +.20, JCP +.18, WMT +.52, GPS +2.03 (7.8%), ANF +.36, LB +1.46, TJX +.91, TGT +.85 and XRT +.61.  We took profits on our XRT call position as it expires Friday.

 

The big names were mixed with GOOGL +3.36, AMZN +5.46, FB -.56, AAPL -.52 (after a move up on the big “REVEAL” at headquarters), NFLX +3.66, TSLA  -1.19, NVDA +.35, BA +.21, and IBM +.70.

 

Financials were strong again led by GS +5.09, JPM +1.16, BAC +.64, C +1.24, and the XLF +.29.  My feelings on this are somewhat mixed since there doesn’t seem to be any concerted effort on the bond to move lower.  As long as the US$ is a “flight to safety” instrument, rates won’t rise.  If we break below 2.06 in the 10-year notes we could test 1.8% again, that would make it hard for the banks to expand margins.

 

I am further concerned with the fact that we have seen the S&P500 “gap” up twice this week to new highs in a market that looks a bit overbought to me.  Add to that the fact that September is not a particularly good month for gains and you have the makings of another pullback of a couple of percent before the year-end rally.  We will keep position size light and use close stops.

 

 Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 9/11/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 12th

 

Well, today’s market was higher on the open and spent the next hour climbing to the +200 range and consolidating those gains and pressing on to +250.  Market internals were strong across the board with NYSE volume and A/D both 4:1 up and NASDAQ 3:1 higher.  The main excuse was that No. Korea didn’t do anything untoward over the weekend, but the fact that the sentiment numbers leaned to the bearish or at best neutral, just primed the pump and minds were changed.  Earnings have been good and that is a hard fact to argue with, as the VIX continues to stay down day after day in the 10-12 range.  The US$ was higher and while the lack of war hurt the gold market (GLD -1.87) the oil continued on its march higher.

 

Oil settled higher (+ .58) and took the oils higher with CVX +1.74, ACP +.06, COP +.46, BP +.24, PSX+.29, MPC -.07, MRO +.20, RIG +.02, OAS +.05, OXY +.16, XOM +.43 and XLE +.72.

 

Retail, with the exception of JWN -1.38 on the news that they are going to try a “mini” version was the only one lower with M +.13, KSS +1.38, DDS +1.66, JCP +.05, WMT +.02, GPS+.24, ANF +.12, LB +1.01, TJX +.45, TGT+.02 , and XLE +.26.

 

Bio /Pharma was mixed to mostly higher with BIIB +.21, AMGN +6.86, ALXN +1.74, VRX +.57, ISRG +2.89, CLVS +1.59. SRPT +1.58, AZN +.59, and ABBV +1.66.  The losers were REGN -26.38 based on some disappointment on Dupilumab, VRTX -1.02, ICPT -3.43 for no reason in particular, INCY -4.51 on a BMO lowering of price objective down to $159 (closed 125) and the IBB was +.16.  One more name that was strong today in this group was TEVA +3.29 (21%) after the announcement premarket that they have found a new CEO.

 

Financials were also all higher with the US$ strength with GS +3.81, JPM +1.36, BAC +.48, C +1.59 and XLF +.42.

 

Last, but not least were the big names which were all up led by GOOGL +1.82, AMZN +12.12, FB +2.56, AAPL +3.03, NFLX +5.46, TSLA +20.11 (5.8%) on the news out of China that they will do away with all fossil fuel autos, NVDA + 5.51, BA +1.87 and even IBM +1.78.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 9/7/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 8th

 

Well, today’s market was slightly higher on the open and spent the next hour making the lows and rest of the day trading within another short range of under 100 points on the DJIA, S&P500 8 points, NASDAQ 33, Russell 12, and the Transports 50 points.  Actually, the Transports was a gain of $41 and was the biggest winner followed by NASDAQ +4.56 while the others were slightly lower.  Internals were so close to 1:1 that you don’t even need the numbers. The A.A.I.I. sentiment number were bullish +4.3 to 29.3, neutral 35 unch, and bearish 35.7 -4.2.  This is still well under the bullish L-T average of 38 and with bearish still over average of 30. As a contrary indicators these still show only 29.3% of the survey are bullish, a solid vote for more upside.

 

Morgan Stanley had a busy day with a downgrade of RACE (-8.29 or 7%), an upgrade of FEYE (+.99 or 7%) and SXW the ETF.

 

On the earnings front CAB +7.62 (14%) continued its aftermarket rise and RH +22.34 (45%) after being +18 last night.  A massive short interest help that one.  GPRO +1.10 (12%) didn’t actually report but did provide new guidance for the next Quarter.

 

Bio Pharma was mostly higher with their ETF, IBB +.90 and within a stone’s throw from its pre-break high of 344 from early 2016.  The twin disaster du jour’s were REGN -28.30 (5.7%) on news that their drug Dupixet, is losing some ground with strong competition from AMGN +2.33, AZN +1.57 and ABBV +4.82.  The other big loser was ALNY -13.50 (15%) on news of a “fatal event” in their trials for a new hemophilla drug. The rest of the group was; VRTX +2.33, VRX +.19, ISRG +14.10, ICPT -.11, INCY -1.52, CLVS +2.72, and SRPT -1.40.

 

Another group with a problem was DIS -4.50 on statements by Bob Iger that earnings for the year would meet estimates made for 2016.  That would be a pretty major miss. DIS is down from the highs of $115 in May to today’s close of 97 (15%).  This also hurt the “delivery systems” with CMCSA -3.57 (6.4%), CHTR -6.86, and VIA.B -1.02 but down 40% since April.

 

Oil had an “inside day” (lower high/higher low) and held onto the gains from the week and the stocks were higher with CVX +.01, ACP +.60, COP +.12, BP +.18, PSX +.68, MPC +.26, MRO +.05, RIG -.07, OAS -.10, OXY +.24, XOM +.25 and XLE +.17. Retail was also mixed to higher but like the oil had a quiet day after a strong 4 day gain with M -.42, JWN -.51, KSS +.20, DDS -2.34 (4%), SHLD +.16, JCP +.02, WMT +.04, GPS +.09, TJX -.11, TGT +.40, and XRT +.19.

We are long the XRT, LABU +.21(3X bio), IWM -.37, and SKYW, CSTM, and ALB.  For more information on our service you can call or email us @ the numbers below.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 9/6/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 7th

 

Well, today’s market was higher from the start with some solid gains pretty much across the board, although there were a couple of sectors that went the other way.  Notable on the downside was anything that had to do with vacation and travel to the southeast.  The travel booking companies got hurt with TRVG -2.44 (16%) after opening $10.99 but closing near the high. TRVG has been cut in half since July 27th.  Also on the list was EXPE -3.22 after being -6, and PCLN -.44 was -36 preopen.  Airlines were lower based on closure of airports and cancelled flights, however they closed at or near their highs of the day, and SKYW was +1 after being -2.50, DAL +1.55 after being -2, JBLU -.32, and UAL -.77 after -4.  This recovery left many scratching their heads since the storm is being portrayed as the “biggest in recorded history.”  

 

After the close we had earnings from CAB with a beat +7.50, RH beat and is +19 or just under 40% with the fact that there is a giant short position to support the move.  This morning we had NWL -3 on news that their source of “resins” used in production in short supply due to the storm.

 

Bio Pharma was mostly higher with premarket news that SRPT +5.65 (14%) had a positive trial result and the rest were BIIB +1.53, AMGN +.75, REGN +5.86, ALXN +.40, VRTX -1.99, ISRG +.93, ICPT -.71, INCY +.52, CLVS-1.61 and IBB +1.06.

 

Also putting in a great day for us (we own the XRT 9/39.50 calls) Retail was higher with M +1.16 (5%), JWN +.52, KSS +1.98 (4.8%), DDS +1.51, SHLD +.19, JCP +.23 (6%), WMT +.28, GPS +1.79 (7.45%), ANF +.48, LB +.72 and the XRT +.52.

 

The oil market continued to post gains with the commodity keeping a somewhat narrow range but finishing higher by $ .50.  The stocks were higher with CVX+2.33, APC +.03, COP +.67, BP +.35, PSX +.12, MPC +.58, MRO +.46 (4%), RIG-.01, OAS +.21, OXY +.90, XOM +1.60 and XLE +1.04.

 

Financials were only slightly higher with GS +.92, JPM +.44, BAC +.06, C+.14 and XLF +.06.  Last but not least the big names were mixed with GOOGL +.54, AMZN +1.98, FB +.63, AAPL -.58, NFLX +4.44, TSLA -4.93, NVDA -.45, BA -2.64 and IBM +.71.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 9/5/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 6th

 

Well, today’s market was ugly right from the start.  First it was UTX buying ROC with ROC barely moving higher since it was a stock and cash bid, but more importantly it was the UTX dragging down the DJIA due to its weighting in the average.  Next it was the big name NASDAQ stocks not coming to the aid of the overall market and in fact moving lower themselves.  I mentioned this type of action in the Special Report that I put out last month about the FAANG stocks getting ahead of themselves before we they can consolidate their gains and then underperforming.  GOOGL-8.74, AMZN -11.87, are clearly in that position while NFLX +.01, FB -1.23, NVDA -4.3, BA -3.23 and TSLA-5.50 are acting better.  The GOOGL and AMZN have not been able to mount a rally to recover 50% of their move lower. IBM -.70 doesn’t even deserve mention since it has been moving lower all year.

 

The market internals today on the NYSE were 1.5:1 down volume and 2.5:1 A/D.  The NASDAQ was considerably worse with volume 2.5:1 and A/D matching the NYSE. There were no groups that acted well except the metals with GLD +1.40, SLV =.18, AGQ +.77, NUGT +2.61 and HL +.08.

 

On the Bio Pharma side, if you didn’t own INSM $26.99 +14.43 (119%) or ISRG +14.69 you had nothing to cheer about either.  With the IBB -2.69 the rest of the group was lower with BIIB-5.18, AMGN -1.97, REGN -9.70, ALXN +.64, VRTX -3.32, VRX -.28 ICPT -.37, INCY -2.69 and CLVS -1.61.

 

While we had a good rally in the oil, the stocks didn’t do nearly as well as I would expect but did move higher with CVX +.59, XOM +.71, APC -.01, OXY +.97, COP-.03, BP +.18, PSX -1.19, RIG +.23, MPC -2.78, MRO +.03, HES +.61, and XLE +.35.

 

We added a new position in the retail sector, buying the XRT (ETF) 9/39.50 calls @ $ .54 which closed right there.  The chart on the sector is starting to show a slowing of the decline as well as new comps coming up are already depressed and we are likely to be able to beat them.  As I pointed out last week some of the “brands” are showing strength and if that continues it would be very hard for that not to translate into a better environment for M -.40, JWN -.24, DDS-1.78, KSS +.21, SHLD -.21, JCP -,12, WMT +1.45, GPS -.22, ANF +.08, LB -.78 and the XRT -.04.  It should be noted that we had our order well below Friday’s close so when we bought them they were down over 25%.

 

We also bought some calls on ALB, a major player in the Lithium battery space.  We bought those @ $ .80, down from the high of day of $1.50

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/31/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING SEPTEMBER 1st

 

Well, today’s market was higher right from the start was the futures rallied overnight and we played catch up with Europe and London.  Unlike the last couple of sessions where only one or two of the indexes move in unison, although the DJIA was the laggard up only .025% while the NASDAQ was +60.35 (.95%), S&P 500 was up 14.06 (.57%), and the Russell was the leader with a gain of $13.95 or a full 1%.

 

Market internals we again positive with the NYSE volume7:2 and A/D 3:1 and NASDAQ was only slightly lower with 3:1 and 2:1 respectively.  Oil had a nice bounce from a low near $45.50 and closed near the highs @ $47.23.  It’s a quiet evening in the futures with oil -.30.  The stocks were higher with CVX -.19, XOM +.30, APC +.41, OXY +.54, BP +.25, PSX +.21, RIG + .06, MPC +.12, MRO + .23, HES +.47 and XLE +.30.

 

Tech was stronger today with GOOGL +11.67, AMZN +13.21, AAPL .85, FB ++2/08, NFLX -.13, NVDA + 3.81, TSLA +2.02, BA -.82.

 

Also in the news with earnings were SMTC -1.45 (3.7% but was 3 lower) on poor guidance, MOMO + 2.46 (6.8%) and an upgrade, DG -4.17 (5.4%) but was 5 lower on poor guidance, CTRP -1.27 (2.4%) and was 3 lower on poor guidance, YY +3.63 (5%) a Chinese Internet play that has come down 25% in recent days, CPB -4.05 (8%) Campbell Soup, and has come down from 64 to 46 this year, and last, SCVL (Shoe Carnival) beat and was +3.68 or 22% but has been cut in half this year.

 

We took 2 nice gains on Thursday with 100% Up Rule triggers to sell 50% in both IWM 9/138 calls @ $2.40, and CSTM 9/10 calls @ $1.60.  This adds to our YTD gains which now stand at $12,617 or 126%.

 

Have a good Labor Day off from the markets.  

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/30/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 31st

 

Well, today’s market was driven lower at the open but rallied shortly after the open.  We spent most of the day backing and filling and moving decidedly to the upside.  The influences of the ADP employment number (+237,000) with a small upside revision and the GDP number (second look) of 3% was taken as a major positive.  Market internals were surprisingly strong as NYSE volume was only 1.4:1 but with A/D of 9:5 and NASDAQ was solidly 2:1 vol. and also 9:5 A/D.

 

All of the big names recovered nicely with GOOGL +7.88, AMZN +13.86, AAPL +.47, FB +1.81, NFLX +5.88, TSLA +6.12, NVDA +1.20, BA +.06 and IBM mentioned by Buffett as a mistake was down .58.

 

The disaster du jour was a biotech, OTIC which traded $3.70 -17.30 pre market and closed $3.58 -17.22 (83%) on a failed trial.  The rest of the group was higher across the board with BIIB +10.26, AMGN +1.42, REGN +8.09, ALXN +.78, VRTX +3.40, ISRG +8.63, ICPT +1.74, INCY +13.28, CLVS +3.23 and IBB +6.36.

 

Oil was another “inside day” and closed near the low -.48 and the stocks were mixed with CVX -.17, XOM -.40, APC -.19, OXY +.09, COP +.56, BP +.56, BP +.04, PSX +.10, RIG -.31, MPC +.02, MRO +.02, HES +.27, RDS.A-.34, and XLE +.03.

 

Financials got a lift from 2 separate sources, the first was the exercise of 700,000,000 shares of BAC by Buffett, making him the largest public shareholder, and the slight rise in rates on the back of the GDP number WITH GS +2.42, JPM +.22, BAC +.45, C +.57 and the XLF +.10.

 

On the earnings front, HRB beat but guidance wasn’t great and so it was -2.42 (8.2%), as did DY -6.03 (7.3%), and CHS -.31(4%).

 

The other group showing strength was materials with USCR +7.35 (10%), USG +1.71 (6.2%), CBI +.65 (5.5%), VMC +5.36 (4.6%), URI +4.25, and GWW +2.48.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/29/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Welcome to the Storm Market day 2!

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 30TH

 

Well, today’s market was down hard at the open after last night’s North Korean missile launch that crossed over northern Japan.  This guy just can’t help himself, but at some point everyone will get fed up with him and take some action.  The players in this area are a lot less likely to act in the short term, but the Chinese or Japanese and their allies will figure out the best way to deal with him.  The selloff was sharp but unable to hold and after opening down in the DJIA (135), S&P500 (20), NASDAQ (60) and the Russell 2000 the least – only 9, and we started to recover immediately.

 

By the end of the day we were actually up on the day and closing at or near the highs.  The oil market was also soft again but held the lows just under $45.80 but also rallied back to close down only $ .20 at 46.37.  But the product markets without having the ability to get refined distillates moved up.  The oil stocks were lower again with CVX +.10, XOM +.01, APC-.56, OXY-.05, COP-.44, BP-.10, PSX-.14, RIG +.22, MPC-1.09, MRO-.04, HES-.17, PXD-.50, APA-.48, OAS-.08, CXO-.47, and XLE-.08.

 

However, make no mistake, aside from all of the human suffering and destruction from Harvey, this will turn into one of the most dramatic rebuilds in history.  Our president is actually on top of this with his perspective as a developer and knows what can and cannot be achieved realistically.  It is also the biggest infrastructure upgrade and we will see how well it is handled and how that may flow into more projects.  The transports were also a part of the markdown (-70) and the turn to close higher (+80) but it is clear that there too will be winners and losers.  The rails will probably slower to rebound than the truckers, but the truckers will have to deal with higher fuel costs in the short term.

 

Auto markets (used more than new) will be helped out in dramatic form.  Estimates of the insurance companies as to how many autos will be junked run to between 500,000 to 600,000.  Katrina’s number was barely half that.  Companies like Group 1 (GPI) is down from 83 to 55 this year, Sonic Auto (SAH) down from 27 to 17, and Autonation (AN)  55-42, should all get a solid lift from the replacements.  Of course it will hurt the insurers a bit now, but by New Year’s you can count on rising rates to make up the slack.

 

All of the big names recovered nicely except NVDA (-.27) worked their way higher; GOOGL +7.77, AMZN +8.67, AAPL +1.60. FB +.89, NFLX +1.84, TSLA +1.84 after being -10 earlier, BA+3.60 and IBM +.49.

 

On the earnings front we had BBUY beat but give poor guidance and fall $7.45 (12%), as well as a warning by Finishline (FINL) and get hit for 35% early but closed –only $1.92 (19%) but also took NKE -1.00, UAA -.50 (3%) but -30% in 3 months, and DKS-.44 but cut in half since May.

 

Some other names today were ACOR -6.25 (24) on an FDA issue, HAIN -.56 after being +3 preopen, AVAV +3.00 on defense spending (drone maker).  One more other area was the grocers with the AMZN / WFM deal closing yesterday were SVU, KR, SFM, and WMT all fell back and rallied to close near unchanged after reports of overwhelming acceptance by the public going to Whole Foods for their “Prime” members.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM 

   

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After the close 8/24/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

Can the weather bring a recession?

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 25TH

 

Well, today’s market was slightly higher at the open but there really wasn’t much strength in the move in either direction.  We sold some more of the NVDA and M calls and booked the gains.

 

The weather, in the form of Hurricane Harvey, is headed toward the biggest areas for the oil refinery business in the U.S.  If it continues on its present course and speed it could cause the shutdown of major refineries that provide jet fuel as well other byproducts for industry.  Refiners also provide the foodstuffs for the plastics business, artificial fabrics, and chemicals.  The results will be felt for a great many of business.  The problem is that a refinery can be shut down quickly, but it can take weeks or even months to test and restart.  Well, at least we’re dealing the words of meteorologists, one of the few jobs where 30% correct keeps your paychecks coming !  We’ll have to see which way it turns.

 

The supermarkets were all lower, as were the big box places where food is sold on the words from regulators that they saw no reason to stop the AMZN / Whole Foods deal.  For its part, AMZN has stated that Prime customers will get a discount on specials at WFM as well as use locations as pickup and return for nonfood products. The stocks were down 3-7% with SFM -1.65, COST -8.04, KR -1.76 (7.6% but is 33% down this quarter), SAFM -4.29 (was $12 higher this morning), WMT -1.69, SVU -1.45 (6.6%), and TGT -2.25 (4% but also 3.50 from the morning trading).

 

Earnings were again in the forefront with ANF +1.64 (17%), DLTR N+4.18 (5/6% but was 4 higher), TIF -1.18 (was $5 higher), HRL -1.80 BUT WAS 1.75 OFF ITS LOW), SIG +8.66 (17% but was also 4 higher), AVGO -14.71 on a beat), ULTA – 7.54 (was -15 earlier), GME also beat but was -1.53, and SPLK which beat and is +5.77 or 9%.

 

The oil was lower by 2% based on the hurricane since there will be a backup of crude since refinery capacity will shrink and it will need to be stored.  On top of that, there is the lack of export will decrease balance of payments and the planned release of 14 million barrels from the strategic reserves.  The stocks were mixed with CVX +.83, XOM-.28, APC-.33, OXY-.47, COP-.39, BP-.04, PSX +1.51, RIG +.08, MPC +.96, MRO-.03, HES-.39, PXD-1.30, APA-.21, OAS-.09, CXO .04, RDS.A-.07 and the XLE +.02.  

 

Retail was also mixed but the earnings helped with KSS +.17, JWN -.41, DDS-.34, SHLD-.02, JCP +.04, RL +1.36, PVH +5.11(4.6%), KORS +.13, COH +.36, FOSL +.74 or 9.9%, AEO +.13, WSM +1.56 and GES +2.39.

 

Bio / Pharma was up across the board with the IBB +3.71with REGN+8.11, ALXN +2.11,

VRTX +2.83TSRO +3.60, ISRG +3.91 ICPT +3.95, CLVS +2.76 (3.85%), and VRX +.39.

The big names were mostly lower with GOOGL -5.69, AMZN -5.55, AAPL -.71, FB -.86, NFLX -.93, NVDA  -.71, TSLA + .17, BA +.66 and ICM +.81.

 

The markets really didn’t produce much excitement with the DJIA -28.69 (.13%), NASDAQ -7.08 (.11%), S&P500 -5.07 (.21%), the Russell +4.14 (.30&), and the transport -65 or .72%.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/23/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 24TH

 

Well, today’s market was lower from the open on the LOW -2.81 but $2 lower at the open on earnings miss and in sympathy, HD -.81 but also $2 lower at the open, but both closed near the highs of the day.  We had a real mix of retail earnings with a beat for AEO +.87 (7.7%), EXPR+1.06 (19%), a miss by LZB-6.25 (20%), CREE-.82 (after being -2.50).  After the close we had a beat by WSM+2.85 (4.8%), PVH +3.56, and GES +1.38 (11%).  This helped the group with M+.17, JWN +.34, KSS +.12, DDS+.22, SHLD-.46 (5%),  JCP+.07, WMT+.17, KORS-.14,COH-.03, FOSL +.35, NKE-.48, DKS +.57, FL+2.10 (6.3%), and XRT +.12.

 

We had to sell half of the NVDA calls @1.34 on our 100%Up Rule and I also sold another quarter @ $1.80 and we still own some.  We also still own M calls @ $.40 that closed the day @ $ .95, and today we bought CSTM calls @ .80, closed $ .95.

 

The markets were all lower with the DJIA -87.80 (.40%), NASDAQ -19(.30%), S&P500 -8.47 (.35%), RUSSELL -1.80 (.13%) and the Transports -114 (1.25%) based mostly on the rails and airlines.  Market internals on NTSE were slightly positive with volume 4:3 and A/D 15:13 while NASDAQ was 1:1 and A/D negative 13:15.

 

The oil market had another relatively short range day but closed right near the highs and that drove all the oil stock (except XOM) to gains with CVX +.14, XOM-.17, APC +.71, COP +.50, BP+.09, PSX+ .13, RIG +.11, MPC +.50, MRO +.13, HES +.20, PXD +1.65, APA +.35, OAS +.21, CXO +.62, RDS.A +.48 and the XLE +.28.

 

As noted above, we had a great day with NVDA, but the big names were mixed with GOOGL +2.18, AMZN -6.90, AAPL +.02, FB -.63, NFLX -.77, NVDA +3.05, TSLA +11.34, BA -2.15, and IBM + .99.

 

In the Bio / Pharma group we has action in both directions with PRKT +5.20 (27%), ITCI + 3.12 (28%) on a positive result and several upgrades, and RARE -7.83 (13%) on a failed study and price objective downgrades.  The rest of the group was lower with CELG-1.44, ALXN-2.53, REGN -1.50, SRPT -.90, VRTX-2.23, BIIB -4.08, AMGN -1.07, INCY - .21, ISRG -9.93, TSRO -.62, ATHN -1.65, CLVS -.49, ICPT + .56, VRX +.09 and the IBB -89.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/22/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 23rd

 

Well, today’s market strong overnight and then it was up from the start, building all day until it closed almost on the absolute high of the day.  DJIA + 196.14 (.9%), S&P500 +24.14 (.99%), NASDAQ+84.35 (1.36%) and the RUSSELL+14.63 (1.08%). Market internals were a solid 3:1 volume and A/D on the NYSE and a like amount on NASDAQ.

 

The lagging big names came to life with GOOGL+20.08, AMZN+13.61, AAPL+2.64, NFLX+1.73, NVDA+3.49 (we own 165 calls bought yesterday), TSLA+3.52, BA+4.07, and IBM+.68.

 

Also shining today were the Bio Pharma names with the IBB+5.77, CELG+2.88, ALXN+4.77, REGN+8.47, SRPT+1.22, VRTX+6.47, BIIB + 3.57, AMGN+1.91, INCY+2.97, ISRG+13.90, TSRO+1.76, ATHN+1.79, CLVS +.90. ICPT+1.63 and VRX +.35.

 

Retail was buoyed by a change at the top at Macy’s and helped the whole group with M+.89 (4.6%), JWN +.75, KSS +.82, DDS+1.75, JCP+.10, SHLD +.42 (4.9%), WMT +.31, and XRT +.52. The brands were also higher with RL+.42, PVH +.29, KORS-.15, FOSL-.03 and NKE +.52.

 

On the earnings front DSW beat and was +2.74 (17%), MOMO beat but guidance was poor and it was -9.06 (20%), RDFN a recent new issue was initiated with price objectives from $24-31 but closed -2.29(8.3%), BZUN beat but was lower by 9.06(24%), NDSN -13.62 (11%) on poor outlook, COTY -1.84 after being down 3 on lower sales, and TEDU-4.50 (24%), and LZB IS -5.00 on a miss, and CRM -.75 on a beat.

 

We had to sell half of the M 9/20 calls at $ .80 on the 100% Up Rule, and the above mentioned NVDA 8/25 165 calls ($ .67 average) closed $ .93 + .24.

 

On the commodity side oil was another short range day but closed slightly higher and the stocks followed with CVX +.60, XOM +.30, APC+.23, OXY+.33, COP+.69, BP +.15, PSX +.34, RIG+.20, MPC+.23, MRO +.13, HES +.52, PXD +.14, APA+.58, OAS +.04, CXO +.94, RDS.A+.40, and XLE +.41.  GLD was lower by .93. NUGT-.89, SLV-.01 and Copper was + .01.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/21/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 22ND

 

Well, today’s market was weak from the start and try as it might we just couldn’t really get going in either direction.  While the DJIA had a short range day, it closed on the highs, as did the S&P500 and NASDAQ, although the Dow was the only one that has not broken the 50 day moving average.  The internals were not any help with the NYSE 1:1 in both volume and A/D and the NASDAQ was 4:3 negative in both.

 

Oil couldn’t hold the $49 and fell back to close -$1.10 with the gold and copper markets moving higher with GLD +.46, NUGT+1.50 while SLV was unchanged.  The 10 year bonds were up a couple of ticks but nothing to be concerned about.  This put a little US$ decline.

 

The oil stocks were lower with CVX-.70, XOM-.26, APC-.12, OXY -.31, COP-.61, BP-.09, RIG-.15, MPC-.66, MRO-.10, HES-.36, PXD-4.45 (3.37%), APA-.79, OAS-.26, CXO-.02, RDS.A-.41 and XLE-.31.

 

ULTA continued to fall (-9.99 or 4%) based on the move to discounted makeup in retail, while M +.08 was higher on a new president, JWN-.56, KSS+.06, DDS-.19, SHLD-.10, JCP-.03, WMT+.39, while the brands we RL+.58, PVH-.99, KORS-.01, COH +.77, FOSL-.31 and XRT-.25. HD (also a member of XRT, was +1.71 after testing Friday’s earnings low and moving to the highs and closing there.  In the shoe and sports retailers NKE-1.34 on a downgrade with FL-2.56 (40% in the last 3 days) and DKS slightly lower, -.53 but also down 33% in the past week.

 

The big NASDAQ names were lower again with GOOGL-5.31, AMZN-5.94, AAPL-.42, NFLX- .24, NVDA -2.74, TSLA-10.36 (tepid response for a bond offering), BA-.27, and IBM +.87.  Financials were also lower across the board with GS-1.16, JPM-.11, BAC- .24, C-.58, and XLF -.07.

 

We bought some M and NVDA calls today and I have very close stops on both positions

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/17/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 18TH

 

Well, today’s market was weak from the start but between the exodus of corporate heads from the panel and the attack in Barcelona we sank slowly but continuously until about 2:00PM.  We had tried to bottom (and I traded SPY calls for a small loss) but broke the lows and accelerated from -180 in the DJIA and fell an additional 100 to close at the lows of the day with a loss of 274.48 or 1.25%, and that was the best performance of the day.  The S&P500 was -38.10 (1.54%, NASDAQ-123.20 (1.94, Russell-24.59 (1.78%), and the Transports -224.77 or a whopping 2.4%.  The internals were all negative with NYSE 4:1 volume and 3:1 A/D and 3:1 for both on NASDAQ.

 

At the risk of repeating myself, political and geopolitical shifts are the fastest way to turn sentiment in either direction.  When you have even the top members of your own party (Bob Corker R-TN) expressing doubt of his president’s ability to govern or even understand what his job entails, there is a major problem.  While it is common for the market to “climb a wall of worry” sometimes the worry is so overwhelming that an “event” needs to occur to wash it out.

 

All groups were weak and retail had some earnings with LB-3.30 pre-open, and traded as low as 35 before rallying to close at the high 37.55 still down $2 or 5%,  WMT also reported and helped push the DJIA down and was -3 but also closed near the high-1.28 or 1.58%.  After the close ROST beat and traded +6.30 from its NY close, GPS also beat and closed +1.25 after being +4.  All this was little comfort to those who own M-.49 a 7 year low, JWN-.14, KSS-.69, DDS-1.10 (raised div from .07 to .10, SHLD-.35, JCP-.01, WMT-1.23, and XRT.64.

 

All of the big names were lower with GOOGL-16.61, AMZN-20.98, AAPL-2.93, FB-3.24, NFLX-3.89, NVDA- 3.20, TSLA- 11.41, BA- 2, and IBM- 1.80.  Also an across the board loser was the financials with GS- 4.46, JPM- 1.59, BAC- .53, C- 1.10 and XLF- .43.

 

Bio / Pharma was lower with the IBB-6.01, CELG-3.58, ALXN- 1.92, REGN- 4.52, SRPT- .88, VRTX-2.83, BIIB- 9.78, AMGN- 3.58, INCY-2.60, ISRG-15.80, TSRO-3.94, ATHN- 3.26, CLVS-1.90, ICPT-1.28, and the lone gainer VRX +.25.

 

It’s hard to be positive on a week like this one, but a trade on the SPYs of $243.55 would close the gap left on the breakaway on 7/11.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/16/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 17TH

 

Well, today’s market was up again at the open but had trouble gathering momentum. It could only approach the highs around 247.50 in the SPYs and it managed to climb back after the two declines, The Trump disbanding of the CEO panel and then the Fed minutes.  We bought the puts @ $ .60 vs. 247.30 and when they wouldn’t break the prior days close we sold the puts @ $.84.  This market keeps clawing back and managing to move higher. All of the indexes were slightly higher but less than .20% and the internals, while positive were not impressive at 1.4:1 volume and 1.5:1 A/D on the NYSE and 8:5 and 15:13 respectively on NASDAQ.

 

Oil tried the upside but couldn’t make it thru $48 and then fell and closed below $47, and is trading + .05 in the overnight session.  The stocks were down across the board with CVX-.69, XOM-.69, APC-.71, OXY-.97, COP-81, BP-.22, PSX- .26, RIG-.26, MPC-.89, MRO-.30, HES -1.45, PXD-2.07, APA-.99, OAS-.14, CXO-.53, RDS.A-.31 and XLE-.61.

 

Financials were also weak, especially after the dovish Fed minutes when the bond yields fell.  GS was -2.22, JPM -.67, BAC-.28, C-.40, and XLF-.05.  The big names were mixed to weak also with GOOGL+4.90, AMZN-6.49, AAPL-.82, FB-1.26, NFLX +1.27, NVDA -2.48. TSLA +.77, BA -1.67, and IBM +.41.

 

As with everything else, the Bio / Pharma’s were mixed with IBB +.77, CELG-.27, ALXN+1.34, REGN-4.03, SRPT +.81, VRTX-1.35, BIIB +6.09, AMGN +.36, INCY +3.53, TSRO-1.01, ATHN +1.67, CLVS-.08, ICPT +1.31 and VRX +.42.

 

I am still feeling mixed about the market and will continue to take advantage of the low volatility and trade the SPY’s. Individual stocks will be the feature in the Weekly Statistics on Sunday and as always, subscribers can take advantage of the Text Alerts during the week.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/15/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

FOR TRADING AUGUST 15TH

 

Well, today’s market was up again at the open but had trouble gathering momentum.  Retail sales were +.6% vs.4% expected and inventories rose .5% vs.4% and helped a little, but the misses of HD, COH, and DKS were too much to handle and premarket was ugly but it only worse as the day went on. HD -4.09 (2.6%), COH -7.28 (16%), and DKS -8.04(23%) and is down from $52 since May on Nike (NKE) going to a direct to consumer site and declines in golf equipment area. The rest of the group was lower with M -.06, JWN -.69, KSS -.49, SHLD +.02, JCP -.09, WMT +.17, TJX +.70, TGT -1.05, ROST -1.72, BURL -3.18,and the XRT-.95.  The “brands” were RL -.32, KORS-.98, FOSL + .04, PVH -.96.

 

The big names were also lower with the exception of BA +3.14, GOOGL -.93, AMZN -1.08, AAPL +1.75, FB +.15, NFLX -2.64, NVDA -1.40, TSLA -2.10, and IBM -.36.  Financials were a bit stronger on a higher 10yr bond but most, while up, closed at or near their lows; GS +.44, JPM +.40, BAC +.05, C +.06 and XLF + .08.

 

The auto second market stocks were also weak today and while they rallied near the close to the highs of the day, they were all lower.  AZO -9.19 was down 27 at the lows as was AAP -22 (low -27), and ORLY -2.42.44 was -12 at the lows.  It’s hard to figure with used car prices soft and average age of 11 years that the demand for parts would be much greater.  These stocks collapsed in May and again in July and these 3 are down over 30% this year.

 

The internals were weak all day with NYSE volume 4:3 down and A/D 9:5 lower.  NASDAQ was similar at 8:7 and 2:1 respectively.  The weakness was also seen in the oil as the futures tested $47 and rallied to close - .05, but the stocks just couldn’t follow and close mixed to lower with CVX +.08, XOM-.10, APC +.55, OXY -.60, COP -.03, BP -.03, PSX -.18, RIG -.44, MPC-.40, MRO -.05, HES +.16, PXD +.86, APA-.05, OAS-.19, CXO-2.00, RDS.A-.14, and XLE -.24.

 

All in all we had a quiet day after the big move yesterday.  I spent all day wanting to sell the strength but could never pull the trigger.  It was good because I wouldn’t have been able to make much and we just crept higher into the close…Again, When in doubt stay out !

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/14/2017

 Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 15TH

 

Well, today’s market was hot right from the start and at the close the DJIA was +135 (.62%), NASDAQ +83 (1.34%), the S&P500 +25 (1%), and the Russell +20 (1.46%).  The internals were solid, but not at blow-off numbers with volume 5:2 and A/D 3.5:1 on the NYSE and 4:1 and 3:1 NASDAQ.

 

The big names were mostly higher with NFLX the lone loser -.60, GOOGL +8.84, AAPL +2.52, FB +2.82, NVDA +12.49, TSLA +5.89, BA +2.51 and even IBM +.76.

 

I didn’t do any trading today except to sell my SPY puts on my 50% Down Rule and I am probably watching to see where we head next.  It’s awfully hard to watch a rally like this that was based on the fact that no one blew up the world as its main point.

 

Retail was mixed with M -.23, JWN +.10, KSS +.16, DDS -.28, SHLD -.27(3%), JCP -.16(4%), WMT +.30 and XRT +.21.  The brands did a little better with RL +1.09, PVH +.49, KORS +.33, COH +.63 and FOSL,  maker of private label watches for most of these brands +.10 but still down from $12.59 a week ago.  Financials had a good day with GS +3.20, JPM +1.08, BAC +.22, C +1.18 and XLF +.33.

 

Bio /Pharma was also strong with IBB +3.17, CELG +2.68, ALXN +1.03, REGN +7.95, SRPT -.52, VRTX +.62, BIIB +2.37, AMGN +2.24, INCY +2.18, ISRG +23.85 (2.5%), TSRO +1.40, ATHN+2.07, CLVS -1.45, ICPT +1.58 and VRX -.03 (3.43 lower last 4 days).

 

My instincts here are a bit confused and while I watched all day and wouldn’t get in the way of the rally, but couldn’t find any trades that had a reasonable risk profile, and all I have to fall back on is “WHEN IN DOUBT, STAY OUT.”

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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11TH

 

Well, anyone waiting for a pullback got their wishes today with the DJIA -204 (.93%),S&P500 -35.80 (1.45%), NASDAQ -135 (2.13%), Russell -24.40(1.75%) and the Transports -115 (1.25%).

 

Earnings were only one of the stories today with the beats being rewarded except STMP who beat but was lower by $9.34, but was higher by $70/share over the past 8 days.  PLNT + 2.08 (9%), PRGO +10.41 (15.6%), HDSN+1.27 (16%) after trading +2.60.  GLPG +7.89 (10%) on positive trial results. The misses were taken out and shot with CBI-4.36 (26%) and is down from 36 since February and issued very poor guidance, PTLA -4.34 (7.2%), NTES -30.80 (9.78%), SYNC beat but also provided negative guidance -1.15 or 32%, YY (China social media) which beat but traded +6 to -4 and closed unchanged, APRN beat by guidance was poor and the stock traded lower by 1.10 (26%) and has been cut in half since the IPO on 6/29.  SNAP -2.12 and broke its prior low of 11.90, NVDA beat both top and bottom and gave good guidance but was lower by 14, but this was up 80% since April.

 

Retail was a mess with M beating, but lower by 2.38, KSS beat but lower by 2.08, JWN beat after the close and traded lower to $44.50 and up to $48 and is now -.87, but the biggest loser for the day after missing top, bottom and bad margins and closed -11.64 or 15.87%. SHLD -.58, JCP -.42, WMT -.95 and XRT -1.15 (2.83) and dwarfed the decline of 1.14, largest in 4 months. One leftover from yesterday was PCLN -57 for a 2 day loss of 199.

 

With all the trouble with No. Korea even the defense stocks were lower with LMT -1.98, GD -2.72, NOC -2.55, RTN -.30 and BA -1.82.

 

Oil started higher (high 50.22) but fell back to close $48.51-1.05 and all of the oils I follow were lower with CVX -.84, XOM -.47, APC-.40, OXY -.32, COP -.76, BP -.70, PSX -.85, RIG -.12, MPC-.78, MRO-.17, HES -.62, PXD -2.35, APA-.97, RDS.A -.77 and XLE -.75.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/9/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 10TH

 

Todays’ market was down a bit from the start but spent the bulk of the day in a slow backing and filling pattern with higher highs and lows.  I got scared out of my SPY position when we went to a lower low.  I couldn’t have picked a worse time since it just sat and held before running to make a new high of the day and closed up.

 

There was a great deal of follow-thru to both the upside and downside of some of the earnings moves from yesterday.  DIS was as low as $100.50 and while it closed on the high@ $102.83, it was still -4.25 on the day.  FGEN +16 on Tuesday but gave back $5.85.  ODP missed and fell $1.58 (26%) and with the help of PCLN-$142 (that’s right, no decimals missing) drove the retail ETF to its biggest daily drop in 4 weeks, and that is saying something.  FOSL -2.97 (25%), TRUE -2.78 (14%), RRGB +4.85 after +8 was a solid mover.  Z missed and fell 4 (9%), TSRO -8.13, JACK reported and traded down to 90.28 before turning up and hitting 98 before last trading 96.80, VRX was up yesterday to 17, collapsed to 14.08 (10), and TEVA -.79 just can’t get any traction, basically cut in half in the last 10 trading days.

 

The big names are a touch out of favor (as explained in my special report 10 days ago) and were mostly lower with GOOGL-3.70, AMZN -8.40, AAPL +1.12, FB-.18, NFLX continued lower by 2.86 on the news that DIS is going to package their library itself.  NVDA +2.06, TSLA -1.06, BA -2.73 and IBM -.33.

 

Oil stocks were mixed again with CVX +.64, XOM +.28, APC -.11, OXY =.31, COP -.11, BP +.21, PSX -.53, RIG -.28, MPC -1.45, MRO -.22, HES-.26, OAS +.05, CXO +.90, RDS.A +.69 and XLE +.06.

 

Financials were lower on the “flight to safety” on the North Korea problems as people bought the bonds and drove yields lower. GS -1.04, JPM -.15, BAC -.20, C -.46 and XLF  was unchanged.

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/8/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 9TH

 

Todays’ market was a little soft for the first 15 minutes today and the started backing and filling until it worked its way through unchanged and then rallied to all-time new highs around 2490.87.  It didn’t spend long up there and came back down to unchanged and with Trump’s North Korea tweet took a fast dive down to 2470 but closed a little off the lows at 2475.

 

The list of earnings related moves included DIS -4.13 on not very much change from expectations, but it did make several comments about the new services coming soon.  That announcement knocked NFLX -10 or so, now trading 173.50-7.43.  Some of the gains included RL +10.38 (13%), VRX +.27 after being +1.50, ESPR +6.96 (15%), KORS +8.02 (21.5%), TCMD +3.65 (12%), KITE +6.58(6%) after a Rev beat, NCLH +2.77 after being up 5 (4.9%), ZBRA +9.40 (9.6%), ACAD +3.50 (closed -1.03 but moved +3.50 after report), HSIC -9.77 (5%).

 

Some companies beat but didn’t give good guidance, including IT -3.95, AIRG -3.08 (22%), and W -5.05, MAR -2.22 after being -6, others were outright misses including some major movers like DF -3.11 (22%), DEPO -3.08 (33%) with several lawsuits filed by holders, FOSL -2.42 (17%) makers of watches for KORS and other brands, TRUE -2.56 (12%) and PCLN -143 (7%), SAGE -4.11 (4.7%) and PDCE -5.37, (12%) and CAR was off 3.36 or 9.7% and TRIP -3.00 on sympathy with PCLN.

 

Others moving from yesterday’s late news are FGEN +21, CHTR +8.74, TEVA tried today but could only hold .30 after being +1.50, BHF fell again on institutional sales that require dividends (spinoff from MET). PAA -4.88 (19%) on decreased distributions and poor guidance.

 

The oil was a narrow range day and the stocks fell with the market.  The exceptions were CVX +.55, COP +.28, MRO +.04, MPDX +6.36 (4.9%), OAS M+.23 and CXO +1.76.  The rest were lower with XOM -.20, APC -.16, OXY -.53, BP -.21, PSX -.05, MPC -.46, HES -.24, APA -.59, RDS.A -.13 APA -.59 and XLE -.26.

 

The big names were mostly lower with GOOGL -5.50, AMZN -8.16, NAAPL +.97, FB -1.18, NFLX -8.03 (after only -2.97 before DIS news), NVDA -2.25, TSLA +8.95, BA -.78, and IBM + .10.

 

The retailers were mixed on the rationale If the brands like RL and KORS are making money, the places they sell them should follow. The XRT was - .48 anyway.

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/7/20

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 8TH

IS TECH BACK ?

 

Todays’ market was up a bit from the start but spent the bulk of the day in a slow grind and closed at new highs in the DJIA and S&P500. NASDAQ has a bit to go, as does the Russell and of course the DJ transports.  The internals were really no influence with the NYSE numbers barely even (just a tiny bit negative, and NASDAQ just slightly positive.

 

BHF, a recent spinoff from Met was down again with a slide from $75 to close today at $61.72 – 2.82 (4.4%).  One of the main issues is that there are no dividends and all the funds that owned MET (+1%) that have dividends as a component have to sell.

 

COL (Rockwell) was +8.07 today but has moved $25 in the last 5 days on takeover speculation. Street estimates of $140-155 seem to be the right number.  NXTM is also a buyout, but this one has a $30 price tag and closed $29.67 +6.53. MYOK had positive trial results and an earnings beat and closed + 14.30 (83%), ZYNE was the disaster of the day with a failure on a cannabis based gel and fell to $6.67-8.39 or 56%.

 

Earnings after the close included CAR -3.39 (11%), TWLO on less of a loss hit $35.70 before settling 34 +3.50.  CAR -3.39 on a miss and depressed used car prices.  We heard the same thing from HTZ last week.  AAOI finally had a bounce to $70+5.09 after a 4 day fall from 101 to 61.  CBS beat slightly and was +.50.  LC 5.89 + .65 (10%), FGEN had a beat and a positive on a new drug and traded 52+19 (55%).THC missed and fell $2.09 or 12%, CUTR beat on Q2 and closed +1 @26.65 and jumped to 33.50 and is now $32 +5.35 a price it hasn’t seen since 2007.

 

Oil was both higher and lower overnight but after hitting $48.54 it rallied back to close only -.19.  The stocks were lower with the exception of BP +.42, CVX-.55, XOM-.13, OXY -.28, APC-.26,  COP-.45, PSX-53, RIG-.31, MPC-1.49, PDX -5.85, APA-.63,  OAS -.25, CXO -2.57, and XLE-.50.

 

Bio / Pharma was strong again with IBB+1.69, CELG +.10, ALXN +1.69, REGN+1.34, SRPT +.53, VRTX +1.93, BIIB +2.74, AMGN +.73, INCY+3.30, ISRG +5.56, ATHN+1.08, CLVS -.99 and ICPT +.48.

 

The big names were mostly higher with GOOGL-.59, AMZN+3.21, AAPL+1.51, FB +2.38, NFLX+1.06, NVDA +6.49, TSLA -1.91, BA+2.49, and IBM -1.47.

 

Finally, financials were higher with GS +3.12, JPM +.34, BAC unch, C +.10 and the XLF was -.04.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/3/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 4TH

  

Todays’ market was down from the start but this was only the DJIA, as both the NASDAQ and S&P500 did not follow the lead.  The internals were soft from the start and the NYSE finished 5:3 negative volume and 4:3 down A/D.  NASDAQ was similar with 3:4 volume and 1.7:1 negative A/D. On a positive note, the S&P

500 today was an “inside day” meaning a lower high and a higher low, and generally accepted as a non-event for direction.

 

There was plenty of follow-thru on the earnings misses from last night and today’s were just as bad.  AAOI was 98+6 at the close but missed and the stock traded as low as 67.33 – 31 before closing at 70.99.  MELI (often called the Amazon of Mexico) missed and after closing @ 292.38 +5.78 also missed and was as low as 243 before a 264.98 close -28 (10%).  COMM missed and was 33.55-3.61 after recovering from the low @ 3.  There were some winners after the close like WTW closing @ 33.08 before reporting a solid beat and rallying to 41 before a closing at 37.75 +4, ETSY a slight miss that took it down to $12.50 before closing 14.75 +1.25.  KHC was a miss on rev. and a beat on earnings and fell initially but bouncing back to 87.50+1.  SHAK was a beat but bad same store sales numbers pushed it to 31.25 before it closed +.09 @ $35.25. GPRO was a smaller lose than expected and was +1.02 or 11%.  Some others were FIT was higher while PRGO (-3.82 or 5%) followed TEVA, a major loser -7.50 (24%), MYL-2.22 (6%), and GILD -1.47.  CENX was -3.41 (20.37%) and SBGI -3 after a loss yesterday of 1.90 for a 2 day loss from 37.25 to 31.50.

 

Oil tried the upside again but failed at $49.96 and was lower at the close @ $49.03. The stocks were mostly lower with CVX -.97, XOM -.14, APC -.90, OXY +.18, COP -1.36, BP -1.07, MPC -.02, RIG +.67 (7.7%), MRO +.49, HES -.62, PDX -10.68, APA-3.81, OAS -.09, CXO-10.87 (8.45%) and XLE -.93.

 

The Van Eck Semiconductor ETF (SMH: $ 85.23) -$ 0.51 on the day and closed below its 50 day price moving average at about $ 85.52, after having made a double top in the most recent two weeks of trading. Its top this year is $89.72 on June 9th. Today’s close was the lowest since July 11th.Other stocks in the industry had a similar move. Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO: $43.10) is off 23% from its high.

 

The big names were split 50/50 today with GOOGL -8.38, AMZN -8.97, AAPL -1.58, FB -.70, and NFLX -1.33.  The gains were NVDA +1.99, TSLA +21.81 (6.7%), BA +.59 and IBM +.27.  Financials were lower across the board with GS -2.39, JPM -.81, BAC -.25, C -1.07 and XLF -.09.

 

Retail was a bit stronger with M +.42, JWN +.35, KSS +.92, DDS -1.05, SHLD +.53 (6.5%), JCP +.02, WMT +.46 and XRT -.08.

 

The last group, Bio /Pharma, was pretty much lower with IBB -2.49, CELG +1.05, ALXN -1.25, REGN -11.82, SRPT -.38, VRTZ -3.52, BIIB -1.91, INCY -.28, INCY +.27, ISRG +1.19, TSRO -1.10, ATHN -3.25 CLVS -4.18 and ICPT +4.64.

 

In case you need any further convincing that this is a dangerous market one need only look at what happened around 3:30 when it was reported that the Special Prosecutor Mueller announced that he was convening a Grand Jury on the Russian issue.  There were no buyers and the S&P 500 went from close to the high of the day to near the lows without an uptick.

 

If you don’t use stops, you need protection.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/2/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 3RD

 

Todays’ market was up from the start but this time all of the “markets” were higher.  If that sound familiar it’s because I said it yesterday too.  We came in long, but the S&P500 just couldn’t get going (gain) so we sold the calls and traded the puts.  It took about 30 minutes for use to get out of the first half on 100% Up Rule, and when we rallied a bit more than I expected it to, we sold them for a $ .02 loss. This produced a 52% gain in the completed trade.  I watched and looked at the calls and the puts and just couldn’t feel comfortable with either, so I went back to my own personal mantra “When in doubt stay out.”  This market feels weak to me, but you can’t argue with the close near the high as a test of support near S&P 236.25.

 

We had plenty of earnings today with both beats and misses.  On the positive side we have ONCE +13.13 (19%), FEYE +.11 (after being up 2), ULTI -26.98 (12%) after a beat on net but lower revenues and a downgrade, TTWO +10 (12%), CAKE with a minor beat that took it higher but then -$4, AIG +2 with the conference call tomorrow before the open, FIT +.20 after trading +$ .45, SQ + .20 after +1.60, and the biggie: TSLA +6 at the close now trading +$32.44.

 

The downside was littered with names that were misses or just negative guidance.  MTSI -15 (26%) on a miss attributed to weakness in China, AN -3 on the same issues as HTZ lower by another $1.42 after a slight bounce from Monday’s 20% downdraft on lower used car values, AAOI -6 (6%), LRCX -5.90 (and down from 170 to 151 in the past 5 trading days and part of the same group as MTSI), and the follow-thru from AMC -5.60 (27%) bled into RGC -.90 (5%).  

 

The oil held yesterday’s lows and turned up on the drawdown news. CVX -.32, XOM +.54, APC -.18, OXY-.02, COP+.86, BP +.23, PSX+1.04, RIG+.06, MPC -.33, MRO +.39, HES +.84, XLE -.21, and PXD closed $145.68 -17.59 (10.7%) with a low of $137 -25 after reporting an earnings beat but negative guidance.

 

Retail was lower after JWN announced that it hasn’t found a buyer for “preferred equity” to own the stock (46.49-2.45 or 5%) with M -.80, KSS-.47, DDS 73.09-3.56 and down from 83.44 in 2 days, SHLD-.34 (4.1%), JCP -.17, WMT +.04 and XRT -.86.

 

Disregarding the AAPL lift of +7, the big names were mixed with GOOGL +1.08, AMZN -.53, FB-.71, NFLX-1.03, NVDA +.37, BA-1.25, IBM -.80, and of course today’s big beat for TSLA +31.13 (9.74%).

 

As I mentioned above, the market feels weak and the internals bear that out with the NYSE 1.5:1 negative for both volume and A/D while the NASDAQ was worse at 2:1 and 2.5:1 negative respectively.  It’s hard to argue with the seasonal influence for the summer, and the fact that August is the “worst month” of the year with September following as #2.  If you can’t find the right risk profile it’s best to go fishing, play golf, or just hit the beach and recharge.  I expect the open tomorrow to be flat or higher and I’ll be watching today’s highs in the S&P500 (2480) and buying the puts again with a stop just over the high at 2484.

 

And again, with volatility so low it’s just foolish to not own protection.

 

The FAANG report is no longer available to nonsubscribers.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 8/1/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

FOR TRADING AUGUST 2ND

 

Todays’ market was up from the start but this time all of the “markets” were higher.  The S&P500 immediately sold off from the highs and spent a good part of the day going sideways until the late rally taking it back to unchanged and then closing near the highs and up $6.05.  Unfortunately the oil seemed to be the problem opening over $50 but selling off to the $48.79 -1.38. This activity pushed the stocks lower with the exception of the 3 that reported earnings, CVX +1.53, BP +1.13, and PSX +1.86.  The rest were lower with XOM +.05, APC -97, OXY -.41, COP -.67, RIG - .13, MRO -.32, HES -1.38 and XLF -.01.

 

Financials were higher with GS +1.67, JPM +1.50, BAC +.38, C +1.31, and XLF +.23.

 

But the big news after the close was AAPL‘s BEAT across the board.  The stock was +1.32 @ $150.05 and is now trading at $159.25 +9.20.  This should give the markets a lift since AAPL is a DJIA, QQQ, and S&P stock.  It should also ease the minds of the big name traders that had been more than soft last week and rallied today.  GOOGL +5.34, AMZN +12.64, FB +1.70, NFLX +1.03, NVDA +3.19, IBM +.63 and after a 5 day run from 211 to 246, BA was -3.02.

 

Some other earnings names today were UAA -1.72 (8.6%), CMI -10.42 (6.2%), TXRH +2 (4.2%), COHR was up $6 at the close at 271 but fell to 213 and is now trading $233 -38.  AMC also reported after closing $20.80 +.40 and its miss brought out the sellers to now trading $15.30-5.50 or 26.4%. REGN was -19.62 (9%), and the other Bio / Pharma’s were lower with IBB -2.56, CELG -.51, ALXN +.26, SRPT +.16, VRTX +1.18, BIIB +1.41, AMGN -.51, INCY -4.59, ISRG +2.64, TSRO -3.37, ATHN +7.69, CLVS – 3.01, and ICPT -5.88.

 

On the positive side of earnings was LL +8.88 (this one has a huge short position and was up a remarkable 36%, SHOP +11.71 (12%), IPGP + 13.75 (9%), and CACC +21.97 (8.5).  Another name in the news were S + .89 (11%) with earnings and a statement that there would be a deal soon.

 

The internals were positive but not by much with NYSE volume 1.2:1 and A/D 1.5:1 while NASDAQ was 7:6 and 1.1:1 respectively.  I would expect the AAPL to carry the day at the open and then we’ll see what happens.  If you are not getting the texting service (with your subscription) you should get in touch with me at the number or email at the end of this note.

 

My report on FAANG stocks went out LAST WEEK, but if you want a copy, simply write the word “REPORT” in the subject line and I will send you a copy.  WE DO NOT RESELLTHE INFORMATION and you will not receive unsolicited email from us.

Send your email to Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

Retail was higher with M +.22, JWN +.74, KSS +.21, DDS reversing yesterday’s loss was +3.83, SHLD - .24, JCP +.11, WMT +.76 and XRT +.14.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 7/31/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING AUGUST 1ST

 

Todays’ market was a split decision based on where you were looking.  If you own the QQQ stocks you got pounded while your S&P500 holdings were only down small change, but if you owned the Dow 30, you had another good day.  The market internals told the story with NYSE volume and A/D both 4:3 UP while over on the NASDAQ they were volume 1.6:1 and A/D 1.3:1 DOWN.

 

This is exactly what my report on the FAANG stocks getting ahead of themselves and then dramatically under-performing is all about.

 

My report on FAANG stocks went out LAST WEEK, but if you want a copy, simply write the word “REPORT” in the subject line and I will send you a copy.  WE DO NOT RESELLTHE INFORMATION and you will not receive unsolicited email from us.

Send your email to Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

The big names were weak across the board with the one exception, BA, +1.13, for a total gain of 34 or 16% in the last 4 days.  GOOGL -12.83, AMZN -32.84 (90 off its highs of Thursday), AAPL -1.20 (earnings tomorrow), FB -3.33, NFLX -2.34, NVDA -3.39, TSLA -11.50, and IBM -+.03. These stocks are not done with the downside.  They will bounce, but the damage done may not be repaired with a 2 or 3 day rally.

 

The financials were higher with GS +1.63, JPM +.71, BAC +.09, C +1.00 and XLF + .18.  The oil continued its move higher and regained $50 overnight followed by a little pullback but closed $50.17.  The stocks mixed to lower with CVX +1.27, XOM +.44, APC -.67, OXY -1.31, COP +.09, BP +.04, PSX +.12, RIG -.04, MRO -.04, HES -.20 and XLE +.18.

 

Retail was also mixed after a strong open based on comments made about how to survive Amazon by cashing in on real estate values.  The target company was DDS, Dillards and after a 10 day run from 54 to 78 (41%) it opened up @ $83.44 and then collapsed to 73.  I guess someone figured out that it makes it look like the company might be in liquidation.  It took the wind out of the retail sails (intentional) and finished the day at $73.82 -5.05, M -.18, JWN +.01, SHLD -.49, JCP -.12, WMT +.20 and XRT -.16.

 

Some other moves of interest were DVAX +6.60 (71%) on approval of a new Hep-B drug, HTZ -3.74 (21%) on the makeup of their fleet and soft used car prices, SNI up from 67 for a deal to be bought @ $90 cash and stock from DISCA, SLCA -5.00 on an earnings miss, CLVS -13 on news that actually looked positive for a collaboration with BMY +1.63 and up from 52 in the last 3 days.  The rest of the Bio /Pharma group was notably weak with the IBB-2.73, CELG+1.31, ALXN -.65, REGN-16.71, SRPT-1.81, VRTX -2.11, BIIB +2.56, AMGN -.03, INCY -2.45, ISRG -2.94, TSRO -6.49, ATHN -1.61, and ICPT -17 (13%) even though they beat top and bottom lines and had favorable results in a late trial drug.

 

It’s getting a little dangerous out there and with the VIX so low, protection is a must.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM 

 

   

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After the close 7/27/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 28th

And then they rang the bell.

 

Todays’ market started to the upside guided by some major names reporting gains and on the earnings front. And as the subtitle says, right around 12:45 it was as if someone “rang the bell” for everyone to sell everything.  That quote is often used to explain that “no one rings a bell at the top or bottom.”  But you certainly would have thought that was the case as they battered the NASDAQ names.  AMZN had traded to a new all-time high of 1083, and an hour later we were 1040. Then the stock broke yesterday’s low and as all good talking heads started on the “KEY reversal day” mantra.  As if it needed any more bad news, the earnings were a miss and the stock traded 1001-51 and is now trading 1015 -37.

 

We came into the day flat and I used the highs of 248 on the SPY, bought puts using the highs as a stop.  We lost the first half position at 100% up (.48) and sold the balance too early @ $.72 before they went to $1.86.  While licking my wounds over the early sale, I saw some support and bought the 247 calls paying $ .19, and sold them on 100% rule at $.38 and the balance at $.44 since they expire tomorrow and I’ll be traveling and unable to put out texts.

 

By the end of the day the big names closed well off the lows but down pretty hard with GOOGL -18.30 (10 OFF LOW), AAPL -3.78, FB -4.29, NFLX -5.98, NVDA -5.96, TSLA -9.15, BA +7.35, and IBM -.36.

 

The earnings misses were TWTR -2.81, AZN -5.86 (15%), AMAT -1.41 and that hurt the group with TER-2.42, and LRCX -3.50.  BMY -1.74, UPS -4.50 (even though they beat), PG -1.38, MA -2.06, SBUX-2.50, and NUVA -12.72 (beat but COO and CFO left). The winners on beats were TREE +34 (missed bottom line but beat Rev and gave good guidance), VZ +3.41 (7.6%), MRK +1.89, RTN +.65, XLNX – 1.48 after being up 3), and DEO +6.62. Also up was ADP+9.65 on the rumor Bill Ackman was the buyer and SNI + 2.34, but has moved from 67 to 86 on a takeover.

 

Retail got a boost on JWN +1.34, talking buyout again, M+.66, KSS +1.27, DDS +3.89, SHLD +.54, JCP +.18, WMT +.88 and XRT +.56.  Oil was up again with CVX +.99, XOM +.54, APC+1.87, COP+.96, BP+.18, PSX +.81, RIG+.07, MPR+.19, MRO+ .07, HES +.51 and XLE +.71

 

Financials were quiet with GS-1.10, JPM-.39, BAC-.11, C-.38 and XLF-.14.

 

All kidding aside, they don’t ring a bell and this is going to be an interesting couple of days coming up to see if buying the dips continues to work.  But no matter what, days like today are a warning of how bad it can get. The ones that got hurt got that way VERY  quickly, so use stops or write against positions with big gains.  It’s amazing how fast those profits can erode.  Or buy some puts, they are a cheap way to protect yourself.

My report on FAANG stocks went out yesterday, but if you want a copy, simply write the word “REPORT” in the subject line and I will send you a copy.  WE DO NOT RESELLTHE INFORMATION and you will not receive unsolicited email from us.

Send your email to Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

CAM

 

               

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After the close 7/26/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 27th

 

Todays’ market started to the upside guided by some major names reporting gains and some losses.  On the upside we had BA open up 8.65 and then run up and close +20.99 or 10%.  This is a major feat for a company of this size.  Other gainers were IRBT +18.95, AMD + .65 after being up 1.63, KO +.50 but with a much larger than normal range of 1.50, T +1.81, X +1.76, VRTX + 1.45 but also +30 in the past week and GILD +2.15.  The misses were also notable with USG -2.08, MMM -.36 after it couldn’t hold a 2.00 rally, AKAM – 7.79, WNC -2.75, UHS -10.22, TGI -6 (18%), AMGN -5, GD -9.37 after being -13, TSCO even after -4, GWW -2.85, BWLD -8.65 after trading -14, AND THE STAR OF THE AFTER-MARKET, FB from a minor miss and trading at 158 -6.50, only to rally back to 173, and now $172.21 +8.16, truly amazing !!

 

So, the entire move in the DJIA was from 1 stock, BA, as the internals were 1:1 A/D and 3:4 volume down.  Over on the NASDAQ we were only slightly better with volume 1.5:1 up and A/D 1:1.

 

We have also gotten into the XBI (Bio ETF) and that group was mixed again today after trying to break to the upside.  This is my default group for a rotation away from the FAANG, or the Oil, or the Retail sectors.  With the exception of the AMGN being down almost 3% on the earnings miss, the rest of the group was strong in an unimpressive day in the averages with IBB +2.71, CELG +2.06, ALXN +5.15, SRPT -.17, VRTX +1.03, BIIB +12.04 (4.26%), AMGN -5.06, INCY + 3.62, ISRG -1.01, TSRO +1.11, and ATHN down 7.42 (4.87%) with no news besides a raise in price objective.

 

Oil was up again and is trading unchanged tonight at just under $49.  The stocks were mixed with CVX +.61, XOM + .14, APC -.55, OXY +.58, COP +.14, BP +.04, PSX -.75, RIG -.24, MPC - .09, MRO -14, HES -1.84, and XLE +.07.

 

Retail was mixed also with M +.8, JWN -.23, KSS +.20, DDS +.48, SHLD -.05, JCP +.05, WMT +.40 and the XRT unchanged.

 

 

My report on FAANG stocks went out LAST WEEK, but if you want a copy, simply write the word “REPORT” in the subject line and I will send you a copy.  WE DO NOT RESELLTHE INFORMATION and you will not receive unsolicited email from us.

Send your email to Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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he close 7/25/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 26th

 

Todays’ market started to the upside guided by some major names reporting gains and some losses.  On the upside we had MCD +7.22, CAT +5.36, and DD +1.4413%.  The losers were evident as well with MMM -10.72, STX -6.56 after being 2.50 lower, WDC -.87 after being 4 lower, LOGI -4 but 4.20 off the low, UTX -2.74, SANM – 4.82, DGX – 1.26 and 3 off the low, IONS -4.85, LII -4.38 on top of yesterday’s -5, WAT -9.90 after 4 lower, JJSF -7.96 after 3 lower.  After the close we had a beat by TXN +2.88 after -2 earlier, IRBT +20.21, WYNN -5.03, CMG + 19.69, and X, a major beat and +3 @ 27.15 for a move of  13%, and T +.87.  Other new hurt PCRX -6.05 (12.4%) and CUR $2.81 -2.77 (49%) on misses in clinical trials.

 

KORS bought Jimmy Choo for $1.2 billion and was + .02 after being -2.50 on sentiment over the purchase price paid.  APC was cut by a broker and still closed +1.51 on the strength in the oil.  The rest of the oils were universally higher with Oil+1.54 and CVX +1.41, XOM +.80, OXY +2.09, COP +1.34, BP +.61, PSX +1.80, RIG +.39, MPC +.46, MRO +.46, HES +1.24 and XLE +1.25.

 

Retail was also stronger with M +.80, JWN +1.19. KSS +.51, DDS +5.56 (8.24%), SHLD +.19, WMT +1.63, and XRT +1.05.

 

Weighed down by GOOGL -30 (3%) the big names were mixed with AMZN +.26, AAPL +.75, FB -.65, NFLX - .82, NVDA +1.27, TSLA -3.02 but 5 off the lows, BA + .28 and IBM +.11.

 

Banks were higher along with the 10 year notes with GS +3.40, JPM +1.52, BAC +.62, C +2.03 and XLF +.31.

 

Market internals were good, but not excessive for a day when all indexes made new all-time highs except the DJIA.  NYSE A/D were 3:2 while volume was 8:3 and over on the NASDAQ A/D was 4:3 with volume 5:4.

 

We sold the SPY calls bought yesterday @ $ .54 for $1.41 on the 100% Up Rule and the second half @ $1.09. We also bought a half sized position in XBI (Biotech ETF).  This group looks like it has a ways to go on market rotation.

 

In later news APRN COO announced his departure with the stock down 30% since going public just 18 trading days ago.

 

My report on FAANG stocks went out yesterday, but if you want a copy, simply write the word “REPORT” in the subject line and I will send you a copy.  WE DO NOT RESELL THE INFORMATION and you will not receive unsolicited email from us.

Send your email to Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 7/24/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 25TH

 

Todays’ market started to the downside in a minor way based on more earnings.  This is the biggest week for earning in the S&P500 and we have seen big moves in both directions.  After the close GOOGL posted a beat and the stock shot up from 998 +4.47 to $1020 before all the numbers and discussion pushed the stock back down to 965 and currently is $970.  Others were HAS, -4 preopen and then closed $105-10.95, HIBB -3.90 preopen and closed $13.10-6.60 or 33%, also down on the HIBB news were DKS lowered to market perform by Telsey and closing $35 -2.04 and FL -2.16 on the trend to Ecommerce. MAN missed and was – 3.50 premarket and finished the day at $108.18- 10.65.  On the other side of earnings was a beat by SGMS +7.30 (27%), and a strong recommendation by BMO on CAT+1.59.

 

On the takeover side we saw NDRM @ $39 closed $38.35+5.15 and WBMD @ $66.10 on a cash deal @ $66.

 

The badly beaten down auto replacement stocks were lower again with ORLY -3.76, AAP -2.10 and AZO -13.21.  None of these stocks have been able to move through the top of the gaps left earlier this month.

 

The market internals were slightly negative on the NYSE with volume 5:3 and A/D 4:3 down while over at NASDAQ they were 9:7 and 15:13 UP respectively.  The big names were mixed and under the influence of the coming GOOGL earnings (now trading 968 -25.85), AMZN +9.33, AAPL +.96, FB+.27, NFLX -1.22, NVDA -3.40, TSLA +13.50, BA +.11 and IBM -1.03.  Several of these report this week and the NASDAQ closed at a new all-time high @6410 +23 so there’s not a lot of forgiveness for a miss.

 

Both oil and the US$ were higher today with oil closing at the high of the day and +$ .71. Surprisingly the stocks were mostly lower with CVX -.05, XOM -.31, APC -1.71, COP -.04, BP-.63, PSX -.20, RIG -.06, MPC +.22, MRO +.01, HES +1.54 and XLE -.21.

 

The rotation into Bio /Pharma continued with IBB+2.46, CELG +.10, ALXN -1.05,REGN +5.30, SROT+.49 EVEN AFTER ANNOUNCING A $250mm OFFERING, VRTX +2.94, BIIB +3.03, AMGN +.85, INCY +4.05, ISRG +21.70, and ATHN – 1.10.

 

Retail was soft with M -.71, JWN -.94, KSS -1, DDS -.45, SHLD -.44, JCP +.01, WMT +.52 and XRT -.60.  Last, Financials were mixed with GS the only loser -1.88, JPM +.11, BAC +.11, C +.10, and XLF +.14.  The banks look like the group is consolidating prior gains with only the GS the only one that has broken the 200 day moving average.  If it doesn’t recover I am concerned that the group will weaken.  GS is a DJIA heavyweight and as such hurts the group and the Dow.

 

My report on FAANG stocks went out last week, but if you want a copy, simply write the word “REPORT” in the subject line and I will send you a copy.  WE DO NOT RESELL THE INFORMATION and you will not receive unsolicited email from us.

Send your email to Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 7/20/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 21ST

 

Todays’ market started to the downside in a minor way based on more earnings.  The list is long and distinctive with HD -6.13, LOW -4.14, WHR -8.64, PPG -6.63, SHW -12.37, CHKP -8.20, BBY -2.2, SKX  -3.47, POOL -10.52 (10%), and that was just the morning.  After the close we had some more notables with MSFT +1.56, COF +3.96, V (unch) after a minor beat and EBAY a slight beat but still -2.58.

 

The oil started to the upside but after trading $47.74 it came back in to close below $47 and down .36.  The group was mostly lower with CVX +.17, XOM +.02, APC -1.07, OXY -.37, COP -.16, BP +.07, PSX -.56, RIG -.14, MPC -.15, MRO -.15, HES -.89 and XLE - .13.

 

The medical and Bio / Pharma sector was again strong with the ETF (IBB) +3.29 or $20. In the last 8 days, CELG +1.31, ALXN +2.51, REGN +14.34, SRPT +6.62 (19%), VRTX -.36 after yesterday’s 27 move,  BIIB -.51, AMGN -.02, ISRG +5.41, TSRO +5.00, and the big winner on earnings after the close…ATHN +12.12 or 8.45%.

 

Retail got a major uptick on the news that SHLD would be selling their Kenmore appliances on AMZN. SHLD was up over 10.75 but closed 9.65 +.97(11%), TJX -.70, M +.07, JWN +.16, KSS +.26, WMT +.17, DDS +1.30, RL +.79, ANF +.08, JCP - .04 and XRT +.09.

 

The big names were mixed but still up for the 10th day in a row with GOOGL-1.40, AMZN -2.67, AAPL -.60, FB +.56, NFLX -.36, NVDA +2.07, TSLA +3.74, BA -.40, IBM + .27 after yesterday’s debacle, and MSFT which reported after the close with a beat top and bottom +2.79.

 

The market internals were a little soft today with NYSE volume 3:4 and A /D 1:1 while the NASDAQ was 1.5:1 volume and 15:13 A/D.

 

My report on FAANG stocks went out yesterday, but if you want a copy, simply write the word “REPORT” in the subject line and I will send you a copy.  WE DO NOT RESELL THE INFORMATION and you will not receive unsolicited email from us.

Send your email to Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 7/19/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 20th

 

Todays’ market started to the downside in a minor way based on the IBM earnings. Also the UAL earnings were okay, but guidance was weak due to the competition out of China and the Far East in general.  We had an order below the market in LUV calls that was filled on a gap down, even though they fly only domestically.  The follow-thru on the IBM earnings from last night as the stock opened @$150.02 and continued down to close $147.53 -6.55.

 

Even with the IBM news, the rest of the market was higher from the start and continued that move all day.  We closed at new highs across the board with S&P500 +13.22, NASDAQ +40.73, Russell +14.16 and even with the 50 points that IBM took off the DJIA, we still closed +66.02.

 

The after the close earnings of AXP (beat) +1.70 right after, losing it on the conference call comments - .67, QCOM (in line but poor guidance) 1.23, and TMUS (beat on both but halted) reopened and is now +$3 , PTC -7.15(12% on in line numbers), CHRW (miss) -$6 (8.6%) and AA  -.69 on miss.

 

Oil was higher and all that I follow were higher with CVX +.41, XOM +.01, APC +1.21, OXY +.65, COP +.46, PSX +.96, RIG + .51(6%), MPC +.72, MRO +.56(4.8&), HES +1.58 and XLE +1.04.  Retail was mixed to slightly higher.

 

The big names (with the exception of aforementioned IBM) were higher with BA making up for its loss yesterday and +2.64, GOOGL +5.82, AMZN +2.42, AAPL +.72, NFLX +.25, NVDA -.68, TSLA -2.84.  Financials were also mixed with GS -.36, JPM + .08, BAC +.13, C -.19, and the XLF +.01.

 

The star today (besides the indices) was Bio /Pharma with news, VRTX +27, SRPT +4, REGN +9.16, BMRN +.56, ALXN + .56, CELG +.73, OCUL +.21 and IBB +4.49.  LABU (LEVERED 3x) +2.30.

 

All In all, it was a record day with internals that were strong but not excessive, with NYSE 4:1 volume and 3:1 A/D while NASDAQ 2:1 on both.  This market may be approaching a necessary pull back or sell off, but the way it feels is that there will probably be a "blow-off" upside on capitulation.  The A.A.I.I. are still constructive for the bulls and you can be fairly sure that the public will rush in and we will turn down.

 

My report on FAANG stocks went out this morning, and if you want a copy, simply write the word “REPORT” in the subject line and I will send you a copy.  WE DO NOT RESELLTHE INFORMATION and you will not receive unsolicited email from us.

Send your email to Info@MoneyInfo-llc.com.

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 7/18/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 19th

 

Todays’ market started to the downside in a major way based on the bank earnings.  The biggest point and percentage loser was GS -5.81, BAC -.12, JPM -.35, C+.05 and XLF -.04.  This market is not reflected by the DJIA since the bank stocks and some earnings were in that index, since both S&P500 and NASDAQ were both higher on the day, and market internals were not reflective of the decline.

 

The oil had a good day with strong action overnight.  It was over $47 for a short while and then sold off to $46.25 before recovering with a close +.22 and mid-range.  The stocks were mostly lower with CVX -.66, XOM -.27, APC -1.59, OXY +.26, COP -.19, BP + .08, PSX +.40, RIG -.06, MPC +.36, MRO +.11, HES-.23 and XLE -.46.

 

The big names were up, with the exception of BA -.75 and IBM -2.33.  GOOGL +10.99, AMZN+14.62, AAPL +.64, FB +3.07, NFLX +21.90 (follow thru from earnings yesterday), NVDA+1.96 and TSLA + 8.96.

 

Earnings were also the highlight for HOG -5 preopen and a close of 48.95 -3.05 but near the high of the day.  Also on the earnings front was LMT slightly higher early near 293, but a close of 286.79 -1.70, and ERIC $6.07 – 1.21 or 16.6%.

 

Retail was lower again after the little bit of short covering earlier this week with M-.37,  TJX -.4, JWN-1.14, KSS -.17, WMT -.15, DDS -.70, RL -.52, SHLD -.04, ANF +.22, JCP -.18, and XRT -.10.  To some this looks like it is getting overdone, but until we start to see some consolidation or M&A activity XRT can be sold on rallies.

 

Also in the news were PBYI +10 preopen and +7.35 on a new breast cancer drug,

VRTX 164 +35 on a new drug for cystic Fibrosis, and unfortunately for them, CMG -18 on new possible health scare.  The company has learned that the issue is a Norovirus, which has nothing at all to do with their ingredient suppliers. This may be a buying opportunity ahead of the earnings July 25th.

 

I am working on a short report that you can receive by just Emailing the word REPORT in the subject line at:

Info@moneyinfo-llc.com.  We do not sell any information to anyone and you will not receive any unsolicited mail from us.  I think this report, centering on the FANG stocks and their relationship to the health of the overall market is a must read…THE REPORT GOES OUT TONIGHT.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 7/17/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 18th

 

Todays’ market was an excellent example of summer trading.  No volume and no range for the markets.  Market internals were about as flat as they get; NYSE 4:3 volume and 4.3 A/D, NASDAQ slightly negative with 7:8 volume and 15:13 A/D.  It couldn’t be much more boring.

 

We, however had a pretty good day since our letter had an order to buy JBHT Aug. 95 calls @ $ .95 or better and they reported earnings before the open.  It was a minor miss and the stock opened down $2.25 and the options opened $ .71 where we got filled and almost immediately it rallied to $94.45 and we sold half on our 100% Up Rule @ $1.50.  We booked a gain of $474 (total cost 852 proceeds 900) so we have 6 left with no cost and a close @ $1.40 giving us $840 equity.

 

The big names were higher with the exception of TSLA, -7.58 on comments made by Elon Musk over the weekend.  GOOGL +3.09, AMZN +9.94, AAPL+.85, NFLX +17.88 on an earnings beat just after the close, BA +.49, and IBM -1.16.

 

Also having a tough day was APRN-.75 or 10% on the AMZN announcement that they are rolling out a service to compete in the “ingredient delivery, you cook” market.  APRN was an IPO just 12 days ago @ $10.00.

 

The financials were mixed, and some have earnings this week.  GS +.90, JPM -.86, BAC-.13, C +.22 and XLF -.08.  Oils were mixed on the softness of the crude.  CVX-.20, XOM-.29, APC +.47, OXY +.24, COP -.07, BP-.03, PSX -.12, RIG +.06, MPC +.50, MRO -.05, HES -.34 and XLE -.12.

 

I am working on a short report that you can receive by just Emailing the word REPORT in the subject line at:

Info@moneyinfo-llc.com.  We do not sell any information to anyone and you will not receive any unsolicited mail from us.  I think this report, centering on the FANG stocks and their relationship to the health of the overall market is a must read… The report will be out tomorrow.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

   

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After the close 7/13/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 14th

 

Todays’ market was driven by the oil again as we held the lows overnight and while we sold off to 1 tick under $45 we came back and moved over $46.  The Yellen testimony with the Senate produced nothing new.  The stocks were mixed with CVX +.30, XOM +.06, APC+.63, OXY+.34, COP+.02, BP-.46, PSX- .63, RIG+.24, MPC+.08, MRO-.03, HES +.18, and XLE +.23.

 

Another sector that came back after getting routed last week had a bounce was the auto replacement parts with AZO+13.66, AAP+2.28, and ORLY+7.53.

 

Retail also came back to life with TJX +1.03 (earnings), M+.86, JWN +.72, KSS+1.78, WMT+1.11, DDS+3.56, RL+.63, SHL D+.55, ANF +.14, JCP +.34 and XRT +.90.  It will take a couple of days before we find out if this is a “dead cat bounce” or the beginning of a real move.  No matter what the sector, they don’t go up or down forever, and this one is subject to a short-covering rally after a long decline.

 

It’s hard to figure out why TSRO was down $10.34 on the day after being down $20 with all the news and buy recommendations of the past 3 or 4 days, but the IBB was +1.23 with BIIB+3.28, CELG +.91, ALXN+1.97, BMRN+1.49, VRTX-.52, INCY +.20 and REGN+8.05.

 

Earning on the financials start tomorrow.  It seems that buy the time we cycle through all of the S&P500 names it’s time to start again.  The group was higher today with GS+3.11, JPM +.86, BAC+.29, C+.10, and XLF +.19.

 

While the big names were mixed today with GOOGL+1.19, AMZN-7.04, AAPL+2.04, FB+.30, NFLX+.14, NVDA-1.61(breaking a 7 day run up), TSLA-5.92, BA-.21, and IBM-.07, they were higher this morning and gave back a bit.

 

BTW, my report looks at the relationship between these big names and some former “darlings” including CYBR, which just gave weaker than expected Q2 numbers is trading $42-8 or almost 16%. The report will be ready tonight or tomorrow so be sure to follow the instructions below to get it while it’s still timely.

 

 

I am working on a short report that you can receive by just Emailing the word REPORT in the subject line at:

Info@moneyinfo-llc.com.  We do not sell any information to anyone and you will not receive any unsolicited mail from us.  I think this report, centering on the FANG stocks and their relationship to the health of the overall market is a must read…

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 7/12/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 13th

 

Todays’ market took off like a shot.  Between the oil rally and Auntie Janet’s questioning before the Congress there was no doubt that these fit the bull market recipe for a triple digit gain.  Unfortunately the oil couldn’t hold the gain and sold off from $46.50 to close only slightly higher at $45.49, 75% down on the range.  The oil is trading down $.12 right now.  The oil stocks were mixed with CVX -.68, XOM +.40 (upgraded from hold to buy), APC-.15, BP +.35, COP-.14, OXY-.23, PSX-.10, RIG-.04, MPC-.44, MRO -.10, HES +.18 and XLE +.18.

 

There was not a question in the big names as the DJIA+123 and at a new high and GOOGL+ 16.22, AMZN +12.72, AAPL -.08 (on production questions for IPhone 8), FB+3.64, NFLX +4.72, NVDA+7.42, TSLA +3.30, BA-.10, and IBM +.24.

 

Even retail got a lift with 9 of the 12 I follow higher.  M+.07,JWN +.05, KSS +.24, WMT+.48, DDS+1.22, RL -.50, SHLD +.04, ANF-.28, JCP+.06, KORS+.05 and XRT +.39.

 

The dovish posture by the Fed was a drag on the financials as rates fell.  GS+.42, JPM-.28, C+.13, and XLF +.08.  The Bio / Pharma names were mixed today with BIIB+3.32, CELG+1.31, ALXN +.62, BMRN-1.35, VRTX-.73, INCY+1.30, REGN+4.99, and IBB +2.00.

 

The report below will be ready to go out tomorrow night or Friday so be sure to follow the directions so you can get it early, while it is still timely…

 

I am working on a short report that you can receive by just Emailing the word REPORT in the subject line at:

Info@moneyinfo-llc.com.  We do not sell any information to anyone and you will not receive any unsolicited mail from us.  I think this report, centering on the FANG stocks and their relationship to the health of the overall market is a must read…

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 7/11/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 12th

 

Todays’ market started to the downside in a minor way and tried to rally but couldn’t get past yesterday’s close for very long and we got long the SPY 242 puts just above the lows of the day only to watch the cascade down by $1.50 in just under 15 minutes on a Trump Jr. reveal of some emails during the campaign.  We then rallied back from DJIA -130 to close unchanged and little changed S&P500 and NASDAQ.  The market internals were almost identical with both roughly 15:14 up, but the NYSE ran behind NASDAQ with 1.3:1 A/D vs. 2:1.

 

The oil had a great day with a start to the upside and moved $1.40 to $45.20 and then consolidated until the Crude drawdown was reported and it flew up to $45.80.  Tonight it is trading $44.77+.73.  The stocks rallied with all but 1 on my list, PSX -.11.  The rest were CVX +.96, XOM +.72, APC +.52, OXY +.73, COP +.43, BP +.19, RIG +.13, MPC +10, MRO +.25, HES +1.14 and XLE +.63.

 

The big names were up, with the exception of AMZN (+18 yesterday) -1.97, GOOGL +2.53, AAPL + .49, FB+ 1.70, NFLX +1.85, NVDA+2.63, TSLA+11.75, and BA +2.63.  The Bio / Pharma group was mostly higher again with ARNA continuing yesterday’s move to close +7.38 or 40%.  CELG +.32, ALXN +.56, BMRN +1.12, VRTX +3.51, INCY +2.38, and IBB +2.17.  Another Pharma name, although much smaller, OCUL was +1.11 (17%) during the day was sued for misinforming the public traded -2.45 (32%).  The FDA is asking for more information.

 

Retail was finally “mostly” higher on the day with M+.10, JWN +.22, KSS +.12, WMT+.37, DDS+1.09, RL-.68, SHLD +.14, ANF-.33, JCP +.09 and XRT +.04.  The biggest loser in this group is KORS -2.73 (7.6%) on a downgrade by MKM.

 

I am working on a short report that you can receive by just Emailing the word REPORT in the subject line at:

Info@moneyinfo-llc.com.  We do not sell any information to anyone and you will not receive any unsolicited mail from us.  I think this report, centering on the FANG stocks and their relationship to the health of the overall market is a must read…

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 7/10/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 11th

 

Todays’ market tried to get started to the upside but only in a nominal way trading from down a couple to up a couple without much action.  The group that defied this inaction was our old friend retail.  It started with ANF sliding from a close at $12.16 Friday to early trading just under $11, and then down to $9.47-2.65 or 21%, based on their announcement that they were giving up on efforts to sell themselves.  As if that wasn’t enough, COST was downgraded by BMO based upon the AMZN / WFM merger.  As anyone in the retail stocks knows by now, it doesn’t take much to bring in the sellers. And sell they did; M-1.53 (6.75%), JWN-1.32, KSS-1.54, WMT-2.08, DDS-1.86, RL-.28, ANF-2.56 (21%), JCP-.10 and XRT-.95.  In addition, electronics also participated with BBY-3.75 (6.9%) and TGT -.89. Several of the rent to own companies might have done a little better in this retail climate, like HGG, but they went bankrupt last year.  RCII was a $0 stock that closed $11 -.21, and CONN, an $80 number closed $18 -.10 but up from $7.50.

 

Oil was lower overnight but after holding just over $43.50 got a bid and rallied to $44.80 but could only manage a close of  44.40 +.17.  It’s a little higher tonight but we’ll have to wait until tomorrow to see if it continues to hold.  The stocks were mixed with CVX -.46, XOM-.07, APC+.23, OXY =.09, COP +.24, BP-.10, PSX-.14, RIG+.17, MPC +.18, MRO +.06, HES +.41 and XLE +.21.

 

The big names were universally higher with GOOGL +9.19, AMZN +19.23, AAPL +.77, FB +2.08, NFLX +2.31, NVDA +7.04, TSLA +3.28, BA +1.63 and IBM +.48.

 

The market internals were mixed with the NYSE volume 4:3 up and A/D 1:1, buy NASDAQ was 8:7 up volume but 1.5:1 down A/D.  My special report, due out by the end of this week (maybe sooner) looks at this divergence, so be sure to follow thru on the signup in the next paragraph.

 

I am working on a short report that you can receive by just Emailing the word REPORT in the subject line at:

Info@moneyinfo-llc.com.  We do not sell any information to anyone and you will not receive any unsolicited mail from us.  I think this report, centering on the FANG stocks and their relationship to the health of the overall market is a must read…

 

After the close Arena Pharm (ARNA) reported positive results on a hypertension drug trial and was trading as high as $27.48 +8, or almost 40%.  Unfortunately for the rest of the group it wasn’t a great day with LABU-2.70 or 4.3%, IBB -2.52, hca-.25, THC+.49, BMRN-.71, VRTX-1.69, INCY-1.28 and CELG -.63.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 7/6/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 7th

 

Todays’ market was soft right from the open with the move in German Bund rates reaching a new recovery high, effectively doubling off the lows.  Futures were lower last night and this morning calling for a down market early.  Unfortunately even a strong rally in the Oil couldn’t help as we hit lows in the S&P500 around 2415 and the bounce couldn’t move thru the top of the gap down open around 2425.  The next trip to the support failed and we moved to 2408 or so and got no rally from there either.  While the summer is known for thin, erratic trading, the market internals were horrid with NYSE volume almost 5:1 down and A/D 4:1.  Over on the NASDAQ the numbers were 4:1 and 3:1 respectively. Looking at my screen there is nothing but a sea of red.

 

L Brands, already down from $75 to 54 (30%) fell another $7.62 or 14% more. This didn’t help the down beaten retail sector with M-.67, JWN-.74, KSS-1.02, WMT+.15, DDS-2.56 (4.4%), RL-2.58, SHLD-.76 (8.8%), ANF-.56, JCP-.17 and XRT-.87.

 

YUMC missed and was down just over 5, but it didn’t seem to matter to the rest of the group with SONC, RICK, RRGB, and JACK were right around unchanged.

 

BGNE was the only standout in the Bio-Pharma group on a collaboration with CELG pushing it higher by $14 to 66.28.  This stock is up from just 30 YTD, and 44, 3 days ago.  CELG could only muster a smaller loss than the rest of the group at 132 -1.25,  with the rest of the group looking very red; HCA-2.41, THC-.87, REGN-6.81, ALXN-3.96, BIIB-5.75, GILD-1.38 and the ETF, IBB-4.84 or 1.54%.

 

It looked like the oil was going to bounce this morning with the futures indicating an up open of about $ .50, but after a great rise against some bad news early, it went on to trade as high as 46.50, only to break back down just after noon moving to as low as 45.20.  The only good thing I can say is that it was an “inside” day and they tend to be inconclusive in the grand scheme of things. Needless to say, with the exception of BP +.02 and MPC +.13, the rest of the list was in the red.  CVX-.84, XOM-.57, APC-1.39, OXY-.87, PSX-.19, MRO-.15, HES-.52 and XLE-.75 or 1.2%.

 

The only NASDAQ big name up was NVDA +.53 with GOOGL-4.57, AMZN-6.26, AAPL-1.50, NFLX-1.51, and TSLA -18.39 or 5.62%.  TSLA has fallen into bear market territory with its drop from $386 to $308 or 21% in just 8 trading days.

 

I am working on a short report that you can receive by just Emailing the word REPORT in the subject line at:

Info@moneyinfo-llc.com.  We do not sell any information to anyone and you will not receive any unsolicited mail from us.  I think this report, centering on the FANG stocks and their relationship to the health of the overall market is a must read…

 

 

The last group to reverse its up day was the financials with GS -1.64, JPM-.29, BAC-.22, C-.78 and XLF -.19.  This group has already had a good pullback from the Election Day rally thru March and is well supported around $23.  My problem with the group is that it is running into overhead resistance around today’s highs @25.20 and is overbought.  This doesn’t give me a positive risk/reward since it can come down 5-8% and still be bullish.

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 7/5/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JULY 6th

 

Todays’ market tried to get started to the upside until the oil got weak and took the Dow with it.  While the S&P 500 and DJIA were down, the NASDAQ started to perform better and we started to rally a bit back to even. At the end of the day DLIA +1, S&P 500 +3.53, Russell -6.54, and the winner is was NASDAQ +41, right near the highs.  However, the internals told a different story, with NYSE volume 1.9:1 down while NASDAQ was 1.9:1 UP and A/D both negative at 1.5:1 and 3:4 respectively.

 

The disaster du jour was a replay of the AutoZone (AZO) earnings miss a couple of weeks ago in O’Reilly (ORLY) with a poor results and guidance. Prior to the open it was trading down 21 @ 199 but followed after the open with a cascade selloff to 173.89 -46.38 (20%) with AZO -46 (10%), AAP -16 (14%) and GPC -4 (5%). These are the biggest names in this business and they are off 30% YTD. With poorer than expected auto sales reported Monday and the average age of used cars of 12-13 years these guys should be hitting it out of the park. All in the group closed at or near their lows.

 

NASDAQ big names were higher with the exception of TSLA -25.68 or 7.28%.  This may turn out to be a problem since it is only another name that has cracked in the FANG group.  GOOGL +12.17, AMZN +18.90, AAPL + .60, FB + 1.29, NFLX +1.01, NVDA +3.48.

 

The oil move ran right through the group with everyone lower on my list; CVX-1.44, XOM-1.10, APC-1.29, OXY-1.51, COP-1.39, BP-.44, PSX-1.01, RIG-.34 (4%), MPC-.20, MRO-.14, HES -2.06 (4.5%) and the XLE-1.33.

 

As I have mentioned both here and in Weekly Strategies that I don’t “believe” in the oil story other than to trade the range, we followed up our position in the OILU position and got stopped out this morning @ $19.84 for a $3.36 profit or $1344, or 20%. Since the move was so swift today I didn’t have the opportunity to buy the SCO with a decent risk profile I will be looking to see if we rally to a lower high or bounce off the bottom of the range to initiate a new position.

 

Retail was lower again with M-.20, JWN -.29, KSS-.28, WMT-.04, DDS-.67, RL-1.75, SHLD-.50 (5.4%), JCP-.08 and the XRT -.69.

 

I am working on a short report that you can receive by just Emailing the word REPORT in the subject line at:

Info@moneyinfo-llc.com. We do not sell any information to anyone and you will not receive any unsolicited mail from us.  I think this report, centering on the FANG stocks and their relationship to the health of the overall market is a must read…

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/29/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 30th

 

Todays’ market was soft from the open but the acceleration down started when the “FANG” stocks broke through some expected areas of support a little after 11:00 AM.  The early gains in several banking names held the market for a while but the volume and declines noted above caused a cascading decline to the lows of the day. Even the oil gains couldn’t produce enough to help.

 

Also influencing the day was the announcement that Walgreens was walking away from its merger with RAD.  WBA was up over $5 premarket but gave up much of that to close at $78.37 +1.28 after selling down to 76.34.  The other participants RAD closed $2.90 -1.03 or 26%, and FRED the buyer of RAD stores to avoid anti-competition closed $9.50 -$2.81 or 23%.

 

The financials were strong based on the Stress test results allowing bigger payouts and buybacks with GS+1.33 (traded +5 earlier), JPM+ 1.33, BAC+.44, C+1.97, and the XLF +.20.  On the big name tech stocks we were GOOGL -23.31(LOW -32), AMZN -14.40 (after -24), AAPL-2.14, FB-2.09, NFLX-3.33, NVDA-4.70, TSLA-10.24 (after -17), BA -2, and IBM -1.20.

 

Oils were mixed to higher with CVX-.16, XOM-.83, APC +1.46, OXY +.51, COP+.10, BP-.41, PSX+.08, RIG + .11, MPC-.35, MRO +.24, HES +.91 and XLE +.19.

 

Some of big movers in the news today were CBI +1.36, COHR -9, NTES -15.33 and two announcing stock offering, GOV -4 in the last 3 days offering 29mm shares, and AKBA , issuing 4.5MM shares was -1.20 but closed on the high at -.40, CARA – 8.85 (30%) on trial results, NKE + 2 on solid numbers. AOBC (formerly known as Smith & Wesson) was $21.80-2.14.

 Retail was mixed with M -.23, JWN-.12, KSS -.46, the major standout was DDS +2.88, RL +.46, SHLD +.49 (6.25%), ANF+.18 and the XRT -.10.

 

We bought a small position today in QQQ 7/7 138.50 calls @ $ .90, closed $ .89. It feels to me like we are due for a bounce and cycle work say tomorrow and Monday (a half day) are stronger going into a national holiday.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6.28/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 29th

 

Todays’ market was strong from the start and regained all of yesterday’s loss.  The market internals were strong with both the NASDAQ and NYSE both showing volume of 4:1 up and A/D 3:1.  The big names all regained their lost luster with GOOGL +13.79, AMZN +14.72, AAPL +2.12, FB +3, NFLX +2.72, NVDA +5.92, TSLA +9.33, and BA + 1.10.

 

Even retail was up as a group with M the only loser and down only .03.  The rest were higher with JWN +.10, KSS +.48, WMT +.66, DDS +1.43, RL +.57 SHLD +.28 and XRT +.33

 

The Pharma, Biotech and assorted medical stocks were universally higher with HCA +.97, THC +.58, REGN +11.07, ALXN +3.70, BIIB +3.39, GILD +1.27, CELG+3.38, ICPT +.98, ACAD +.62, INCY+4.02, BMRE + 3.00 and the IBB +5.99.

 

Oil was higher as a group when the market tried $43.90 early and held it and then with just middling supply and drawdown number it took off and ran to $44.90 and stayed there to close.  Only OXY and COP were losers and then just by pennies.  The rest were CVX +.21, XOM +.42 BP+.14, PSX + 1.24, PSX + 1.25, RIG+.22, MPC+.77, MRO +.08 HES +.88, and XLE +.35.

 

You almost had to be Rep.Chris Collins (R,NY) and owned Innate Immuno Therapeutics,down 92% to have a bad day today.

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/27/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 28th

 

Todays’ market was soft from the open and rallied to around unchanged until after lunch and then we had a downdraft back to test the lows around 2425 (S&P500) and rallied off that test.  We have several bottoms around 2420-2415 from the last several tests of the breakout at the end of last month.  As I noted in the video released with the Weekly Strategies letter Sunday night, all of these consolidation lows and tests have occurred ABOVE the point of breakout last month.

 

Oil had another good day and I continue to feel that the trading range bordered by $42 and $53 remains in effect. This weekly chart

shows what I am talking about. The oil names were mixed to lower with CVX -.43, XOM. -.27, APC -1.12, OXY -.38, COP -.44, BP +.15, PSX +.30, RIG -.15, MPC +.17, MRO -.31, HES - .72 and XLE -.16.

 

Retail was mixed to higher with M+.56, JWN -.13,KSS +.89, WMT+ .1, DDS +.73 RL -.01, SHLD +.36, ANF +.20, JCP +.11 and the XRT..unchanged.

 

Financials were stonger with GS +.06, JPM +.96, BAC =.43 (almost 2%) C +.12 and + .12.

 

The weakness in the “FANG” is finally bleeding into the overall market.  Most of todays loss occurred late in the day when the NASDAQ names.  And they accellerated the big names all closing down hard.  GOOGLS – 21.09, AMZN -16.98, AAPL – 2.42, FB – 3.08, NFLX – 6.41, NVDA -6.15, TSLA -14, and BA- .96.

 

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

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After the close 6/22/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 23rd

 

Todays’ market was a boring example of a market that really had no news of any substance to drive it higher (at the open) or lower (at the close) by much.  The oil had an overnight and early morning rally but while closing up, it didn’t hold the gain of up $ .80 and closed $42.73 +.20 and near the lows.  The sector (XLE) was -.05, and the individuals were mixed with CVX -.04, XOM-.36, OXY +.33, COP-.14, BP-.03, PSX +.02, RIG +.08, MPC- .56, MRO- .02, and HES +.70.

 

Retail was a bit stronger with M +.40, JWN +1.40, KSS +.74, WMT- .72, DDS +1.39, RL +.52,SHLD +.39, ANF +.15, JCP +.01, and XRT + .26.

 

The focus was on healthcare and it moved higher as the news of the new (and improved?) health care act making its debut in the Senate.  The biotech’s continued their move higher with REGN +4.51, ALXN +2.65, BIIB +1.97, GILD +2.98, CELG +.85, INCY +2.17, ICPT +2.17, and IBB + 3.95.  However, they were joined by drugs and hospitals today with THC +1.22 (7%), GSK +.54, PFE +.18, MRK +.56, LLY +1.67, and BMY +1.26; HCA +2.09, UNH +1.58, ANTM +1.29, and HUM + .79.

 

The financials all passed the new “STRESS” test and were mostly higher with GS-2.02, JPM +.08, BAC- .01, C-13with the XLF -.13.  These will probably edge higher in the morning when retail investors read tomorrow’s headlines.

 

Something else to consider for tomorrow will be the Re-balancing of the Russell.  This happens only once a year when some of the Russell 1000 move to the 2000 or 5000 indexes or up from the lower market capitalized to higher ones.  This may not have any major effect on price, but it usually increases the volume dramatically.

 

The big names were only slightly changed with the exception of TSLA +6.25, GOOGL- 1.97, AMZN- .93, AAPL- .19, FB- .41, NFLX- .1.32, NVDA-1.32, BA +.27, and IBM +.61.

 

The internals were both on the positive side with NYSE volume 4:2.5 up and A/D 4:3 and over on NASDAQ 5:4 and 1.7:1.  A.A.I.I. Sentiment numbers still favor the bears, but these were little changed and will be included in your Weekly Strategies letter on Sunday night.

 

Lastly, there were some earnings reports after the close and BBBY was a miss and went from a $34 close to trade as low as 29.25 -4.25 but has recovered to 30.75.  SONC missed and traded from $28 down to $25.25 but has regained some to $27.10.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/21/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 22nd

 

Todays’ market was a study in just how differently markets can act at the same time.  We started off with both the NYSE and S&P 500 to the downside, and the NASDAQ to the upside.  At the end of the day you would have thought that we were looking at markets operating in two different countries.  The DJIA was down 57, S&P 500 -1.42, and the NASDAQ UP $45.92.  The internals showed the degree of the damage as the volume was over 2:1 down and the A/D were 5:9 lower.  Over on the NASDAQ the picture could not have been more different with volume almost 3:1 UP and the A/D were basically even.

 

As noted in this space the last 3 days, the rotation has moved from “High” tech to “Bio” tech. The list is long and notable with ALXN +4.53, BIIB +12.60, GILD +1.91, CELG  +6.6, ICPT +3.40, ACAD +1.05, BMRN +6.46, REGN+26.69 and IBB +12.51.  For a look my study of the IBB (Biotech ETF) just click on the link below to see a short video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7-IC2qctBU&feature=youtu.be

 

It will give a better perspective of how far this can move.

 

The oil broke to the downside again today after the weekly numbers came out midday and after a somewhat constructive morning, broke $43 and collapsed to just over $42.  We got stopped out of OILU at $16.84 as it fell below $15 to close $15.40 -1.20.  The others were uniformly lower with CVX-1.99, XOM-.91, APC -1.00, OXY- 1.01, COP- .95, BP-.33, PSX-.66, RIG- .37, MPC-1.12, MRO-.40, HES-1.17 and XLE-1.05 or 1.61%.

 

Financials were also slightly lower with GS- 2.59, JPM- .40, BAC- .33, C-.01 and XLF- .20.  The big name list was mostly higher with IBM the only loser -1.15 while GOOGL + 9.60, AMZN +9.57, AAPL +.83, FB +1.63, NFLX +2.95, NVDA +2.36, TSLA +3.61, and BA +.62.

 

Also in the spotlight was Nike (NKE) reported that they may start selling their shoes direct to consumers and was +1.06 while FINL lost $.53 or 4%, FL -2.50 after being down 5.50 (5%), and DKS -1.52 after being $4 lower.

 

Right after the close SCS missed and traded down to 13 or $3.00 lower while ORCL reported both top and bottom and rose to $51.20 +$5.00 OR 10%.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 21st

 

Todays’ market was unchanged to slightly higher at the open but then spent the rest of the day going sideways until a little after 3:00 and doubled its loss to close down $61, but the real losses came in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, both down 2-3 times the percentage loss in the DJIA, while the Russell fell just over 1%.  The internals on the NYSE were 4:1 DOWN volume and 2.5:1 DOWN A/D, while the NASDAQ were 13:12 UP and also 2.5:1 Down A/D.  Not a good showing at all.

 

The break in the Oil was all that most of the talking heads could blame, and the move below $43 was tough to watch, but on the basis of the extremely oversold condition, I bought the OILU (3X leverage) Oil ETF @ $16.42 this morning.  The energy sector was lower across the board with of those I follow were down.  CVX-1.06, XOM-.47, APC- .41, OXY-1.26, COP-.68, BP- 1.07, PSX- 1.69, RIG-.33, MPC-1.44, MRO-.49, HES-1.37 and XLE-.84.

 

The big names were mostly lower with GOOGL- 6.23, AMZN- 1.29, AAPL-1.25, FB -.65, NFLX-1.14, NVDA +.05, TSLA+2.65 (after making a new high+9), BA-.51, IBM+.33 and QQQ-1.06.

 

The same occurred with retail with M-.54, JWN-1.86, KSS  -1.30, WMT +.11, DDS -2.89, RL -.77, SHLD +.40, ANF -.26, JCP-.26, and XRT -.82.

 

FDX had earnings and after closing around 208.95 ran up to 214.89 and down to 209 and settling 210.50.

 

The big gainers were again Biotech names with ALXN +2.89, BIIB+5.46, GILD +.77, CELG+1.06, ICPT -.82, ACAD +.23, INCY +2.30, BMRN+1.01 and the LABU (3x leveraged ETF) +1.94 or 3.4%.

 

And last, the Financials were again weak with GS -1.03, JPM -.43, BAC -.39 C -.53, and the XLF -.21 or .86%.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/19/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 20th

 

Todays’ market was higher from the start.  We had new highs in the DJIA, S&P 500 with closes at the highs of the day.  Market internals were strong but not overwhelming with NYSE volume 2:1 and A/D 1.8:1, while over on NASDAQ it was 4:1 and 2:1 respectively.

 

Premarket we had RICE +5 (25%) on the bid from EQT (finished @ $53.51-5.26).  The other big movers were CLVS +28 on a new cancer drug and TSRO started the day -14 but finished -$1 (competitor of CLVS).  Other early morning movers were NVDA +5.70, SGEN was -$7 but closed -2.64, PTLA -5 but rallied to close +1.44, PHG +2.47, AVGO +5, and RMP -6.26 (26%).

 

But the sector that grabbed the attention was clearly the Bio-techs with ICPT +7.42, ACAD +.89, INCY +4.23, BMRN +2.86, REGN +11.76, VRTX +2.44, CELG +2.80, GILD +.70, ALXN +3.70, BIIB +8.80 and IBB + 7.06.  This group has been sideways for enough time that a close over $300 can bring plenty of attention to these stocks.

 

Oil was weak again and there is some separation from the raw price of oil and the value of these names, but they were still lower.  CVX -.95, XOM -.73, APC -.34, OXY +.20, BP -.05, PSX +.30, RIG -.05, MPC + .52, MRO -.03, HES - .66 and XLE -.42.

 

The big names were all higher with GOOGL +18.23, AMZN +8.17, AAPL +3.12, FB + 2.34, NFLX + .82, NVDA +6.49, TSLA +3.30, BA +2.64, and the XLK +.82.  The last leg of the table was the financials with GS +4.42, JPM +1.97, BAC +.50, C +.56 and the XLF +.25 (having just bounced from $23 a couple of weeks ago.)

 

Last name for tonight is outside my normal parameters for size or wide distribution is LPCN (Lipocine), which “achieved primary endpoints” on a new drug and was $4.02 +.15 at the close but traded over $5.70 +1.68 on the news.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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SPECIAL REPORT

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

SPECIAL REPORT 6/16/2017

Today’s major surprise was the pre-market suspension of trading in Whole Foods (WFM) for news pending.  The news was that Amazon (AMZN) is buying WFM for $42 a share in cash.  The reaction in AMZN was a selloff to -20 or so before people started to figure out what the deal actually means, and rallied $50 to +30.

 

THIS IS A “GAME CHANGER” FOR THE GROCERY MARKET.

 

And it shows with an across the board to everyone, even the majors that have added food recently to their other offerings.  These include WMT -4.50, TGT -6.15, KR -3.65, COST -13, SFM -3, and UNFI -9.  These are major percentage moves to the downside.  The real problem for these companies is the fact, as pointed out by Kroger after beating on both top and bottom lines but gave weaker guidance due to “increased price DEFLATION and the inability to raise prices.”

 

AMZN will now crush margins as they have in other industries.  This is a brutal assault on this sector…

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/15/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 16th

 

Todays’ market was lower overnight and carried right into this morning’s open.  However, after making the lows by 10:30 we recovered almost all of the losses except in NASDAQ stocks.  While the DJIA was down only .07%, and S&P 500 -.22%, the NASDAQ was down .50%.  Market internals weren’t terrible but both had 9:5 negative volume and 2.5:1 down A/D.

 

Many of yesterday’s biotech winners gave some back with AVXS -3.66, CELG -.43, REGN -7.34, BMRN -1.45, ACAD -1.10, ICPT -3.64, and the IBB -2.99 or almost 1%.

 

They had plenty of company since KR reported a beat on top and bottom lines but gave very disappointing guidance and was -5.72 (19%) and it took WFM -2.39 and SFM -2.32.

 

Home builders suffered from economic numbers and although not dramatic they were down with one exception, BZH +.56 with LEN -.84, KBH -.28, HOV -.05 and TOL -.61.

 

The big names were mixed with GOOGL (with a downgrade) closed 959-7.94 after trading as low as 940, AMZN -13.13, AAPL -.85, FB -.40, NFLX + .05, NVDA +.43, TSLA -5.31, BA +2.76 and IBM +.41.  Oils continued lower and took CVX -.27, XOM+.19, APC -1.17, OXY -.72, COP -.03, BP -.13 RIG -.13, HES -1.80 and XLE -.42.

 

Retail was mixed with M -.03, JWN -.32, KSS -.38, WMT -.99, DDS +.06, RL +.98,SHLD -.16, JCP -.08, and XRT -.51.

 

Financials were also soft with GS -3.28, JPM -.52, BAC -.21, and C -.52.

 

Also a drag on the DJIA was NKE -1.73 closing near the daily low.  Acting a bit better was HOG +1.55 while Booz Allen, who gave us Ed Snowden and a few other problems is being investigated by SEC on accounting issues and is trading $34.15 -5.98.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/14/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 15th

 

Today’s early morning shooting remarkably had no effect on the open and early trading.  The best acting groups were healthcare and biotech.  ALXN was +10 while BiiB was -8 on news that the CEO from BiiB to ALXN, AVXS +6, CELG+1.42, VRTZ+2.22, REGN+3.17, BMRN+1.53, ACAD+.33, INCY+1.60, ICPT +2.35 and IBB+ 1.66.

 

The Fed did exactly what was expected and got no response until Chair Yellen spoke and that took the markets to the lows of the day.  We bought SPY 6/244 calls that closed slightly higher than our price.  Another group that had some gains was Defense with LMT+1.94, RTN+1.08, NOC+2.07, GD+.73 and BA+1.29.  The market internals were negative with NYSE volume 3:5 and A/D 13:15 and NASDAQ again soft with volume 4:5 and 3:4 respectively.  The big names were mostly lower with GOOGL -9.49, AMZN -8.78, AAPL -2.04, FB -1.08, NFLX -1.31, NVDA -1.80, TSLA +2.82and IBM -.70.

 

Oil was again lower on bearish statistics this morning and took the group lower including APC which got a downgrade and closed -1.94.  CVX -1.90, XOM -.89, OXY -.98, COP -1.01, BP -.71.  Financials didn’t fare much better on the Fed news with GS+1.27 but JPM -.62, BAC -.24 and C -.19.

 

The metals were higher overnight and early but also came down hard after the rate rise, with HL-.21, NUGT-2.94, GLD -.18 but on the lows, SLV +.07, and AGQ -.02.

 

Futures tonight are decidedly lower with the S&P-500 -7, NASDAQ -27, and DJIA -39, so unless things turn in Asia or Europe overnight we’ll have a down open.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/13/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 14th

 

Todays’ market was higher from the start.  All the big names came out of the gate and made up for last week’s selloff.  Market internals still favored the NYSE with volume and A/D both 2.5:1 while NASDAQ was just 4:3 and 2:1 respectively.  While it wasn’t a particularly big day the oil made its low early and then moved $1 higher before coming back down to close near the highs and + .38.  Gold followed the same pattern opening down $10 near $1260 before making a move to 1271 before closing $1268 unchanged but near the highs.

 

The S&P500 and the DJIA both closed a new highs by a small margin and stocks from all groups (except retail) took part with GOOGL+8.69, AMZN +16.52, AAPL +1.48, FB+2.53, NFLX +1.76, NVDA +1.69, TSLA  +18.69 (helped by Ron Baron who likes it for $1000 by 2020), BA +1.60, and IBM -.07.  Oil, as mentioned was firmer and the oils were mostly higher with CVX - .22, XOM- .23, APC +.92, OXY-.25, COP+.46, BP+.09, PSX+ .42, RIG+ .15 MPC+.13, MRO+ ,13, HES+ 67, and XLE +.14.  Unfortunately the retailers didn’t fare as well with M-.02, JWN-.41, KSS- .28, WMT+.29, DDS-.77, RL-.55, SHLD-.18, ANF-.06, PCP-.06 and XRT +.11.

 

Other assorted movers were CAKE-5.75 (18%), SYNA-4.65, CBRL -3.58, MELI+2.70, IR+1.83, NAV-1.10, EFX+3.51, HUM +3.85, ALXN +5.87, BIIB -4.77, HDP+1.30 (10%), HRB beat and was +3.64, LOXO-3.80, OMER+2.48(14%), PCLN+31, OLED +3.20, SWIR+2, SSNC +1.38, WYNN +3.91and recently up 30%, and NTES 4.77.

 

All in all I very positive day that seems to be saying “buy the dips” is alive and well.  However, tomorrow is Fed announcement day and while the rate rise seems in the bag, one never knows what the comments at the press conference will contain.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/12/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 13th

 

Todays’ market was another pretty boring affair.  After the open without major follow-thru to the downside we rallied slightly and then stayed in a narrow range until the end of the session when we rallied to just under unchanged and closed there.  The market internals were pretty close to Friday’s with the NYSE volume of 5:4 up and A/D were 1:1.  NASDAQ was 3:5 down with its A/D 3:4.

 

The big NASDAQ names were mixed with GOOGL -8.69, AMZN -14.76, AAPL -3.62, FB – 1.03, NFLX -6.28, NVDA +1.26, TSLA +1.55 with none closing anywhere near their lows.  BA was +.24 and IBM +1.08.  Energy was higher with the oil rallying to almost $47 and finished up @$46.08, and the stocks were mostly higher with CVX +1.62, XOM +.92, APC +.34, OXY -.16, COP +.90, BP -.04, PSX +.64, RIG +.14, MPC -.13, MRO + .08, HES -.11 and XLE +.42.  Retail was also mixed with M unch, JWN -.69, KSS +.23, WMT - .18, DDS +.59, RL -.45, SHLD -.03, ANF -.10 and XLE +.13.

 

Financials and metals were both mixed to lower with GS -.53, JPM -.06, C -.11and BAC +.13.  GLD was +.30, SLV -.23, NUGT -.43 and HL -.28.

 

All in all, a quiet day ahead of the Fed’s 2 day meeting.

Tomorrow is another day.

CAM

 

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After the close 6/8/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 9th

 

Todays’ market was dominated by the news from BABA (+16.70) that revenues were exploding.  This took the other related stocks higher, but they couldn’t hold up.  SINA  from +2.50 to -4.14, BIDU from +3 to -1.77, and JD +3 to +.74.  The other big story was JWN (+7.50 to+4.15) could be taken private by the Nordstrom family.  One on the downside was NLNK, a smallish biotech that lost its partner and closed $6.24-4.38.  ENDP had an opioid pulled by the FDA and went from +1.38 to -1.83.

 

The internals improved on a barely changed day with the NYSE volume 1:1 and A/D 4:3 while NASDAQ was 2:1 on both measures.  That didn’t help the auto aftermarket stocks which have been under pressure since last week with AAP -4.70, ORLY -4.72, and AZO -8.60.  The big names were mixed but with some standouts; GOOGL +2.01, AMZN -.97, AAPL -.61, FB +1.48, NFLX -.01, NVDA +12.42, TSLA +10.60, BA +1.83, and IBM +1.12.

 

The 3-D printers winked back to life with VJET +.81 (16%), DDD+.48, XONE +.27, and SYSS +.70.  Some old favorites saw a little weakness without headlines CHTR -8.43, CMCSA -1, SBUX -1.50, IFF (part of the original “nifty fifty”) -2.71, HUM -3.49, and SNAP -.76.

 

Financials caught a bid today with the Dodd / Frank rollback vote with GS +2.91, JPM +.37, BAC +.38.  Retail got a boost from the JWN news but fell back with M -.05, KSS-.85, WMT -.22, SHLD-.12, JCP-.25 and the XRT -.12.  Oil also tried several times but fell short also: CVX +.23, XOM -.29, APC-.54, OXY-1.23, COP-.44, BP-.60, PSX +.44, RIG-.20, MPC-.08, MRO-.10, HES -1.31 and XLE -.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/7/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 8th

 

Todays’ market was dominated by the action to the downside in the oil. The market was expecting a drawdown in crude and gasoline and instead got a build in both.  We were weak all day but accelerated during the afternoon and closed down 2.47.  The rest of the group reflected the weakness with EOG -2.68,CVX -.30, XOM -.23, APC -2.79, OXY -.76, COP -.88, BP -.82, PSX -.12, RIG -.46, MCP -.25, MRO -.54,HES -1.95 and XLE -.93.

 

Internals were even on the NYSE, but NASDAQ was 1.5:1 volume and 5:4 A/D.  The big names came back a bit; GOOGL +5.07. AMZN +7.01, AAPL +.90. FB +.39, NVDA +1.86, NTES +11.78, TSLA +7.95, BA +1.20 and IBM -1.39.

 

Some other names of interest, EA +1.68, and TTWO+2.40.  These are electronic gaming companies that have a position in the “watching others play” video games.

WB +4, and OKTA also had nice gains today.

 

We sold half of our position in the SIG 6/55 calls on our 100% Up Rule, bought some BBRY and OILU.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/6/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 7th

 

Todays’ market was a bit soft right from the start, rallied back to even near 2:30 and then faded into the close.  The moves were certainly not extreme and we closed less than .30% across the board.  The internals looked like yesterday with the NYSE volume 1:1 and A/D 13:15 negative.  NASDAQ was a little weaker with volume 5:5 and A/D 5:9 negative.

 

The big names were mixed to lower again with GOOGL -6, AMZN -6.52, AAPL +.61, NFLX unch, NVDA -.71, TSLA +5.68, BA -2.00, and IBM .02.

 

On the earnings side COUP-3.10, PLAY -2, HDS -7.24 (17%), FAST -2.55, AMBA -2.62 THOR +9.57, AMIR +1.76 (buyout), LITE +5.05, MIK -1.65, CASY -9.88, Gii -3.03 and P -.73.

 

Oil again rallied after testing the lows and continued higher.  The oil stocks were higher with CVX +.03, XOM +1.05, OXY +1.53, COP +.31, RIG +.02, BP -.03, HES+.79, and XLE +.77.  Metals gained again and GLD +1.37, NUGT +4.88, SLV +.13, and HL +.19.

 

The retailer were lower again, influenced by an investor day at Macy’s -1.91 (8%), JWN -1.41, KSS -2.12, WMT –1.33, DDS -1.74, SHLD -.21, ANF -.70, JCP -.21, and XRT -.90.

 

Of our positions SIG +1.11, HL +.19, TBT added today.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

    

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After the close 6/5/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 7th

 

Todays’ market was like watching paint dry.  While it was a religious holiday in much of Europe, it seemed like everyone everywhere took the day off.  The high and low in the S&P 500 took place in the first 25 minutes and that was it.  The internals were about the same on both NYSE and NASDAQ with both slightly negative volume, but A/D were both 5:9 negative.

 

This weekend was the ASCO annual meeting in Chicago and there were several big winners in the premarket this morning with LOXO +21.14 (43%}, TGTX +1.60 but finishing unchanged, BLUE +7.15.  ACOR +2.75 (20%) on Parkinson’s drug, and PUMA +10 pre-open but closed + .13.  JUNO -2.81 was a loser along with INCY -7.  Also on the loser side of the ledger were the Auto repair retailers with AZO-5, ORLY -7, and AAP -2.30 on the news that Carl Icahn wants to consolidate the repair business and sell the parts from his already owed Pep Boys and Federal Mogul.

 

The big names were mixed to higher with GOOGL +7.73, AMZN +4.37, AAPL -1.55, FB -.01, NFLX - .12, TSLA +7.40, NVDA +4.37, BA -1.73, and IBM +.36  Financials had a little bounce with GS+.69, JPM +.83 and BAC -.06.

 

Energy bounced overnight on the news out of QATAR but fell back early and during the first half of today.  After a rally back about halfway and finished down only $ .26.  The stocks also lifted and finished mixed with CVX +.01, XOM + .62, APC -.42, OXY -.70, COP -.24, BP +.17, PSX +.50, RIG + .05, MPC +.26, MRO +.06, HES +.36 and XLE +.10.

 

Retailers were mixed to lower with M +.05, JWN -.77, KSS -.58, WMT + .53, DDS - .05, RL +.03, SHLD -.35, ANF-.40, JCP +.07 and XRT -.01.

 

We sold the balance of our SJM calls +80% and added some HL 7/6 calls @ $.23 on an order in the weekly letter from last night.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 6/1/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 2ND

 

Todays’ market moved to new record highs today and did so right from the start, as the DJIA closed +135, S&P 500 +18.26, NASDAQ +48.31.  The Russell was up 25.85 or a gain of 3X the % or the other averages. The Transports are well below the highs but closed up 113.54 or 1.24% (also 2X the DJIA).  Market internals were very strong with NYSE volume 4:1 and A/D almost 5:1 and NASDAQ 3:1 in both metrics.  The rotation in this market seems to be coming back into view with the big names mixed while the small and midcaps and transports recovered some ground. GOOGL +1.20, AMZN +1.23, AAPL +.37, NFLX + .04, TSLA -.64, BA -.31, and IBM + .04.

 

Earnings were mixed with retailer RH -12.50, LULU +7.38, EXPR -1.50 (20%), and FIVE +2.  Others were WDAY +1.50 and VMW -4.10.  Oil got a lift on drawdown numbers and the entire group benefitted with CVX +.79, XOM +.20, APC +.58, OXY +1.58, COP +.17, BP + .09, PSX +.51, RIG +.16, MPC +1.09, MRO +.08, HES +.76 and XLE +.40.

 

Financials too had a bounce with GS +3.94, JPM + .91, C +.54, WFC + .94 and XLF +.33.  AVGO was -$4.89 at the close but earnings drove it back up to +2.42.

 

We had an especially good day with the SIG calls bought yesterday @ $ .75 when we sold the first half @ $1.50 on our 100% Up Rule and the second half @ $2.70 for a total gain of 180% and we bought the 6/55 calls @ $.64 and they closed $ .83.  Our other positions in SJM +2.38 with our 6/130 calls from $1.65 to $2.80 and offered $3.20.

 

Last, but not least, the metals were lower but an “inside day.”  We bought a little more HL on an average up @ $5.72, SLV (silver ETF) closed near its high and - .04 only while the GLD was -.25 and midrange.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 5/31/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING JUNE 1ST

 

Todays’ market started to the upside and turned down making its high and low for the day all in the first 40 minutes of trading.  After that the S&P 500 had several 5 or 6 point rallies and declines and finished the day -1.48.  DJIA -20.82, NASDAQ -4.67, DJ TRANS +.24, and the RUSSELL -.98.  The internals were flat with NYSE 6:8 volume and 1:1 A/D, and NASDAQ 10:11 and 14:14.50 respectfully.  But the surprise of the day was the high-flying tech names with GOOGL -1.70, AMZN -9.08, AAPL -.82, FB -.83, NFLX -.07, TSLA +5.91, BA +.75 and IBM +.90.

 

Some of the foreign names followed suit with MELI -4.79, SINA -3.37, WB -1, BIDU -3.78, and BABA -1.45.

 

Earnings driven stocks were mostly higher with ADI +4.34, PRGO +4.93, and JILL +1.48 while KORS was -3.09, HPE –47 even though it beat top and bottom lines, BOX + .45 and PANW +14 after the close.

 

Some of yesterday’s losers rebounded with BIIB -4.25 yesterday +1.23 and REGN -6.50 and +10.39 today.  The auto suppliers fell again after a brief rebound hit the skids again AZO -7.06, ORLY -555, and AAP + .64 after being up $2.

 

But the biggest losses were in energy and the financials.  C-1.10, WFC -1.02, GS -7.16, JPM -1.75 (we got stopped out), and BAC -.44.  The oils were lower except MPC which announced a $3 billion buyback gained .58, CVX -.58, XOM -.60, APC -.24, OXY -1.19, COP -.10, BP -.10, PSX -.89, RIG -.16, MRO + .03, and HES -.78.  

 

We also added some calls in SIG for a bounce here with its short interest of 13.2%, a long decline and 6 down days, oversold and at the bottom of the Bollinger Bands.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/30/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 31ST

 

Today’s selloff looked pretty minor, unless you owned financials, oil, or healthcare / biotech.  Those got taken to the woodshed.  The IBB (Biotech ETF) closed down $3.27 or 1.33% with REGN -6.50, BIIB -4.26, ALNY -1.71, NTNX -1.18, INCY- 4.50, PRTA -2.50, and the LABU (S&P Bio 3X ETF)-2.57 or 5.65%.  The only winner was PTGX, a small bio with a new royalty agreement +3.61 or 43%.

 

Financials were weak with GS- 4.48, BAC -.34 and JPM -1.54 (we bought the 6/86 calls today and will probably be out tomorrow at a loss.  Oil could not have looked worse and while the actual rallied $ .63 from the low and closed down just $ .14, the stocks were beaten down.  CVX -.66, XOM -.45, APC-1.07, OXY -.88, COP -.56, BP -.24, PSX -.14, RIG -.31, MPC -.82, MRO -.40, HES-1.15 and the XLE -.89 or 1.34%.

 

So, what was up?  GOOGL+3.23, AMZN +.68, AAPL +.02, FB +.07, NFLX +.73, TSLA +9.48, although I doubt for the auto sector since FSLR was +2.66, BA +.07  NVDA +3, and lonely IBM -.76.  Some others of interest today were STMP made a new high @ $145 and then collapsed to 133 and closed -6.15, AMBA -4.79, WB -3.38, RH -2.72, MOMO -1.95 and SHPG -5.

 

The markets looked soft all day with the DJIA -.24%, NASDAQ - .11%, S&P 500 -.12%, and the RUSSELL -.80%, but the internals looked terrible.  On the NYSE volume was 272:480 DOWN while stocks were 1100:1800 DOWN; NASDAQ was no better with 761:888 and 1004:1875 respectively.  Remember that the end of the month is often a down day.

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/25/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 26th

 

 

Today’s rally took the S&P 500 to another new closing high @ 2415.07 and we were long the SPY calls that were up 25% before the close and sold the first half on the 100%  Up rule + a gap @ $ .90 at the open.  We also saw earnings reports that were positive for a ULTA (which was down 9 in anticipation but reversed on the beat and moved $27) +16.26.  GME +1.20, DECK +6.43, NTNX +1.05, SPLK -1.66, UHAL -39.69 (10%), HRL-2.27, COST+5.50 but the big winner was BBY +5 pre-open and +11 or 22% by days end.

 

After yesterday’s beats by PVH, GES, and WSM, ANF beat and was +1.16 and gave some life to the retailers. M +.31, JWN +.61, KSS +.93, WMT +.16, DDS+.75, RL+ .06, SHLD+1.00 (13% on earnings), and XRT +.41.

 

Unfortunately the oil market was disappointed by the OPEC meeting and was down to $48.75 -2.61 or over 5.25%.  Everyone on my list was lower with CVX -1.31, XOM -.56, APC -1.29, OXY -.46, COP -1.62, BP -.60, PSX -.87, RIG -.79, MPC -.69, MRO -1.00 and XLE -1.23.  Airlines were higher with JBLU +.44, AAL= 1.25, UAL+2.47 and DAL+ 1.53.

 

Financials were lower with GS -1.37, JPM -.36, and BAC -.11.  The big names were all higher with the race to $1,000 taking the focus with GOOGL 993+15.39 and AMZN 994+13.65.  Others were AAPL + .49, FB +1.92, NFLX +5.30, TSLA +6.28, BA +1.82 and IBM +.69.

 

The only surprise today was the really unimpressive market internals.  On the NYSE we had 350:460 DOWN volume and only 15:14 up stocks.  On NASDAQ we fared better but not much with volume of 11:6 UP and stocks 15:13.  For a day that we made a new high over 6200 on NASDAQ and over 2404 S&P 500, as well as Transports coming close, the Russell was up $ .88 or .06%.

 

Have a great long weekend..                

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/24/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 25th

 

 

Today’s rally took the S&P 500 to a new closing high @ 2404.39 and we were short some SPY puts (expired @ 0) and bought some SPY calls that were up 25% before the close.  We also saw earnings reports that were positive for a couple of retail brands with WSM +4.94, PVH +3.72 and GES +1.54 (15%) while TIF -6.64 and LOW -2.84, and ULTA -9, and CHS -1.25 kept the pace of negative retailers numbers alive.

 

Biotech was on both side of the market also with ALNY -4.90, INO +1.55, ALXN -3.56, PBYI +19 (started the week @37, now 73 on a new drug), AERI+10.80 and GLYC +.13 after making a new high @ $14.80.  After doing some homework on this one it turns out to have a new treatment for several unmet needs and partnerships with several mainstream drug companies.

 

After yesterday’s crush of auto supply stocks AZO recovered slightly +$5 while AAP-8.66 and ORLY-2.50 continued lower.  BWLD +11.25 on a recommendation to vote 2 BOD seats to activists. Some other names in the news; JACK+4, CHTR +10.25, HPQ+1.48(earnings), SBLK -.03, PSTG+1.16, NTAP-2.06 and ANW-3.95 (37%) earnings miss.

 

Oil was basically unchanged but the stocks were all a bit lower with XOM-.29, APC-.07, OXY-.40, COP-.04, BP-.04, PSX-.11 and the XLE-.36.  Financials didn’t fare much better after the Fed minutes with GS+4, while JPM and BAC were down pennies.  Gold and silver were both lower but rallied to close higher and futures are up this evening.  NUGT was +1.43, SLV +.13 and AGQ +.43.

 

The big names were mostly higher with GOOGL +7.12, AMZN + 8.86, AAPL -.55, FB+1.98, NFLX-.11, TSLA+6.39, BA+1.43 and IBM+.21.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/23/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 24th

 

 

Today’s “Best dumb excuse” for a miss in earnings was brought to us by AZO, AutoZone, and the winner is, “The IRS delay caused the downturn is sales.”  This led to a pre-market decline of $58 and a final price of $581.40 -$78.09 or almost 12%.  I don’t know about you, but when I get a broken whatever I have it fixed pretty quickly and it may go on a credit card, but I don’t wait for my tax refund to come in to deal with it.  The rest of the group followed suit with ORLY-8.28, and AAP -6.71.

 

Some other names in the news were A +2.58, ALXN-5 premarket and -10.78 by the close on a failed drug trial, NBIX -5.14 (same issue),TTWO +3.79, DSW -1.44, INTU +10.50 (earnings), and GLYC+4.10 (36%) and mentioned here last night as up from $5 to $14.64 in 5 days and back to $10.

 

Retail reared its ugly self again today with M-.36, JWN-.44, KSS-.28, WMT-.06, DSS-1.54, RL-.70, SHLD-.10, JCP-.02, and XRT-.76.  LULU was also down $ .71 due to its e-commerce site being down for the past 24 hours.

 

The big names were mixed to lower with GOOGL +6.62, AMZN+.83, AAPL -.27, FB -.17, NFLX +.79, TSLA -6.46, BA -.18, and IBM -.64.  GLD reversed from +.29 to -.73 and SLV from +20 to -.10.

 

The market range was narrow today and the internals were pretty much indecisive.  NYSE volume was 445:306 UP and A/D 17:11 while NASDAQ was 803:856 down while Advances beat out declines 1487:1341.  Not very decisive either.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 5/22/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 23RD

 

Today’s rally started off with the defense stocks right out of the gate.  LMT, RTN, BA, GD and NOC were all up strong on their deals with the Saudis.  Oil was higher but getting back toward the 2/3s upper end of the range again and the XLE was actually slightly lower while my list was mixed with CVX -.40, XOM +.32, APC +.05, OXY -.08, COP - .55, BP +.05, PSX +.29 and MPC +.20.

 

NUTR was +$14.15 on takeover news while HUN was $2 higher but finished - .56 and CLN.CH was +.72 on a merger of equals report.  RDUS finished +2.31 after being +6 early on reports of a successful Osteoporosis drug beating out an AMGN offering -3.80. LJPC finished -.31 after being -4 and BX +2.01 on the Trump announcement of a “permanent funding” of an infrastructure fund with the Saudi’s for $40 billion.  MOMO rallied from - .30 to +3 while GLYC finished -2.30 after a 4 day run from $5 to $14.64 to close $10.36.

 

The metals were higher but while GLD was +.50 (.42%) SLV +.30 was (1.88%) or 4X the yellow metal.  EWZ was down again -.97 down 15% from last week’s high and a meager 6% from Thursday’s low.

 

The big names have all rallied with TSLA the only one lower today.  GOOGL +8.86, AMZN+12.71, AAPL +.97, FB +.18. NFLX+ .15, TSLA -.89, BA +3.12, IBM +.68, ACIA +4.67, PBYI +14.80 (40%) and MCK +2.41.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 5/18/2017

THERE IS NO NOTE TONIGHT

After the close 5/17/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 18TH

 

Today’s early bloodbath was led by the bond yields and the financials.  By mid-morning GS was -9, JPM -2.40 and BAC -1.06 (4.4%).  Oil and gold were higher although the oil stocks seemed to lag a bit.  Profit takers were all over the big names since that’s where the biggest profits were to be had.  By the close unless you owned GLD +2.14,SLV  .06, HL + .06, AGQ +.28 or NUGT +1.76 you didn’t close in the green.  The financials continued lower with GS -11.92, JPM -3.33 and BAC -1.43 or 5.92%.  Even though the oil was lower overnight and higher by the NY open and then higher by $ .66 at the close, the stocks still fell along with the market.  CVX -1.27, XOM -.45, APC-.01, OXY -.26, COP -.68, BP -.07, PSX -.94, MPC -.43 and the XLE -.62.

 

All the big names were lower with GOOGL-22.44, AMZN -20.97, AAPL -5.06, FB -4.63, BA -3.85, TSLA -10.88, NFLX -5.91 and IBM -2.75.  Some other names from last night’s list of the Chinese Internets stocks didn’t fare quite as well today with SINA -1.81 (+15 5/16), BIDU -4.59 (+4.50), BABA -3.30 (+2.62) WB -3.80 (+15.70) so some held up pretty well.

 

CSCO had earnings and fell $2.30, and some more popular names caught up in the selling were MU -2, MOMO -3.54, NVDA -9.70, AMD -1.51, INTC -.73, and LVS -1.08.

Retail was its dismal self with the exception of TGT which closed up .51 but on the low and 1.93 from its high and LB which also had earnings after the close and was +$3.

 

Last but not least was the market internals, with the NASDAQ, which was down 2.57% the A/D were 6:1 negative while volume was a whopping 8.26:1 down.  Over on the NYSE it was a meager 4:1 and 4.5:1 respectfully.  As a recap of the day’s action indexes were DJIA -1.78%, TRANS -3.08, NASDAQ -2.57, S&P500 -1.82 and RUSSELL -2.78.

We bought some SPY 239 calls @ -200 that were stopped out @ 50% down but also wrote the 238.50s @ $.71 and are holding them into tomorrow’s open.  They closed @ $ .16.  The S&P-500 could rally 35 points and these would still be worthless at expiration on Friday.

 

 Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 5/16/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 17TH

  

Today was another retail mess with the only standout being HD, and it was + .90 after being up over $2.50 earlier.  The rest were URBN -.50, PLCE -6.20, DKS – 6.53, ROST - .85, TJX – 3.09, LULU -1.45, M -.39, JWN- .77, KSS +.01, WMT -1.24, DDS +1.83, RL – 2.59, SHLD + .01 after yesterday’s -1.83, and the XRT -.33.

 

Chinese internet stocks got a lift with BABA +2.62, BIDU +4.50 and SINA +15.  U.S. gainers included AMD+ 1.33, WB +15.70, ETSY +2.41 (21%), ISRG + 8.80, MTSI + 5.69, and WFBI +5.69.  Losers were SFLY -2.04, CBI -2.24 910%0, and DVA -3.94 as well as most of the oils; CVX -.41, APC-.13, OXY- .78, COP -43, PSX -.88, MPC -.50 and the XLE -.53 all thought the oil was little changed.

 

The metals were slightly higher as were SLV +.18 and GLD +.59 with HL +.11.  The big names were mixed but mostly higher with GOOGL +5.39, AMZN +8.10, AAPL -.23, FB -.50, BA + .31, TSLA +1.50, NFLX _.81, IBM +2.17 and DIS – 1.20 on news that it is part of the worldwide hack and that one of its big summer releases is being held for ransom.

Two big restaurant plays with positive earnings were up pretty big after the close were JACK +11.00 and RRGB +9.50.

 

We sold the second half of our SPY calls and went home without and directional position but as you know…

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/15/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 16TH

 

The weekend news of the biggest hack in history lit a fire under the cyber-security stocks pre-market that carried right through the day with the public learning a new symbol HACK + .94 (for the cybersecurity ETF).  The individual companies looked great with QLYS +2.15, CYBR +2.20,FEYE +1.11, SYMC +1, PANW +3.13 and PFPT +5.99.

 

Other big movers included PTHN +8.61 on takeover by TMO + .74, ALNY +9.23, TRVG +2.13, AKBA +1.07, SNAP +1.56 bouncing from its earnings miss from 17.59 on Thursday, VRX +.60, EGRX -12.95, IONS -3.18, and FRTA -4.79.

 

Oil was higher again with another OPEC agreement and the stocks reflected it with CVX +.81, XOM +.25, APC +.36, OXY +.48, COP + .48, BP + .31, PSX + .21, MPC +.68 and the XLE +.53.  Financials were higher but not big with GS + 1.70, JPM + .28 and BAC+ .02, and the big names were actually mostly lower.  GOOGL +4.08, AMZN -3.38, AAPL -.40, FB -.21, BA -.86, TSLA -9.21, NFLX -.79 and IBM +1.04.

 

We went back into the SPY calls this morning and gave up half of the position on the 100% Up Rule and kept the last half.  We didn’t write against it as we did with the puts since the trend is higher and I don’t generally cut off potential going with the trend.  We also added some JBLU calls and some SLV (Silver ETF) shares.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 5/11/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 12TH

 

Today’s disaster du jour was SNAP -4.89 or 22%, followed closely by the devastation in the retail sector lead by M-4.95 or 17% on earning and finally JWN which reported after the close and fell by $5, or just about 10%.  The rest of the group was right behind the leaders with KSS -2.98, WMT -.57, DDS -10.13 (17%), RL -3.84, SHLD -1.08, JCP -.42, and XRT -1.28.  It may be a little late but the next group could be the mall R.E.I.T.s like SPG -3.94 (Simon) or SKT -.58 (Tanger).

 

Also mentioned here the last several nights was STRP and its “unnamed” suitor VZ which finally came out from behind the curtain and made its “take-under” bid of $3.1Bil. and that was only $43 UNDER last night’s close so it opened -45.68.

 

Market internals were soft with the NYSE 2:1 negative volume and A/D 5:9 down while the NASDAQ volume was much closer at only 4:5 down and A/D about the same 5:9.  We were again long SPY 5/12 238.50 puts @ $ .21 and we sold half @ $ .48 and wrote the 237s @ $ .24on a ratio of 2:1.  We sold the second half @ $ .63 and covered the 237s @ $ .04 just before the close.  The gain on the day was 359% on the day.

 

Oil continued higher today and the stocks were mixed with CVX -.34, XOM _.69, APC -.54, OXY-.26, COP +.07, BP +.28, PSX -.23 and XLE -.13.  The big names were also mixed with GOOGL +1.05, AMZN -1.33, AAPL +1.18, FB - .39, BA + .65, TSLA -2.26, NFLX -1.77, and IBM -.63.  And lastly VRX continued higher again closing $13.70 +1.02 and up $3.63 or about 36% on the week.

 

 Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 5/10/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 11TH

 

Today was another interesting day on the earning and deal front.  We had some follow through on some of yesterday’s names with EA +13, PCLN -93, W +2.52, and NVDA +18.  The big name this afternoon was SNAP which missed on all metrics except user growth (+36%) and is trading $17.21-6.09.  TM missed and gave 20% lower guidance and is -2.56, ELF -1.66, TIME -2.15 (14%), SYMC -1.89, LGDN -5.50, IONS -3.57, ACAD -2,83, and AMGN -3.  Upside follow-thru included STMP +6, NUAN +1.40, PRAA +2.45, COHR +33.94, and CPN +1.39 (14% on takeover spec), AMD +76, MZOR (robotics) +3.50 and ANF +1.55.

 

Another group that winked back to life today was the 3D printers.  This group ran well ahead of itself for a year or so and now the technology is finally catching up to the hype.

XONE +.80, DDD +1.48, SYSS+1.29 and VJET +.44 (12%).  These were the most popular names and the usage has become pervasive with companies like BA and GE and ARCN all major participants.

 

We traded out of the second half of the SPY puts about even but the puts written expired worthless (as projected yesterday) for a 100% gain on that trade also.  The net return for that “paired trade was 206% in 24 hours.

 

Oils test of the lows Thursday night and rebound off the lower end of the trading range continued today with the drawdown numbers more to the liking of the markets.  As I mentioned earlier this week, these companies are also assets in and on the ground but a rally certainly does move them higher.  CVX +1.60, XOM +.37, APC +.75, OXY +1.45, COP +1.34, PSX +.15, MPC +.88 and the XLE + .78.

 

The big names were again mixed and some taking a well-earned rest with GOOGL-1.87, AMZN -3.87, AAPL -.72, FB + .77, BA -2.40 (on news of a problem with new engines for their 737 MAX),TSLA +3.96, NFLX +2.99, and IBM -.72.

 

 Tomorrow is another day.

 

 CAM

   

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After the close 5/9/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 10TH

 

Today was another interesting day on the earning and deal front.  We had some follow through on some of yesterday’s names with MAR +6 (3 from last night) and STRP +16.62 (53.25 yesterday).  We also had several of the “foreign versions” of our big names participate today with BIDU +6, BABA +3 and MELI (Mexican AMZN) +7.

 

On the earnings front we had P which was down after earnings and then up on news of KKR taking a position and then down and very volatile today finish at the low end of the range and down 5%.  Another one I would not usually mention is CLNT which was $3.27 yesterday announce a purchase of the CEOs shares and closed today @ $5.67+2.40 after trading $6.99.

 

Back to the earnings front, DISmissed on rev and is -1.57, FOSL a former $100 stock missed rev and guidance and is 15 -1.87, ACIA beat rev, earnings but not guidance and is -5.85.YELP lowered guidance and is -10.  PCLN missed and is -$60, while TRIP beat and is + 3.54, JCOM -1.87, TSN -1.63, RGR + 6.10, and ENDP +2.00, NVDA +12.03, AAOI +4.81 and EA +4.57.

 

The big names were mixed with GOOGL -1.98, AMZN +3.78, AAPL +1.01, FB -.56, BA +.90, TSLA +14.41, NFLX +1.06 and IBM -.92.  Retail was also mixed to higher with M + .63, JWN +.63, KSS +.53, WMT +.60, RL +1.95DDS -.02, SHLD - .03 and the XRT +.53.

 

Oil was lower as were the stocks.  CVX -1.49, XOM -.58, APC -.98, OXY -.72, COP -.86, BP -.08, PSX - .04 and the XLE -.51.

 

We also made a trade today in the SPY puts and bought 20 SPY 5/12 239 PUTS @ $ .33 and sold half on our 100% up rule and then also sold on a ratio of 2:1 the expiring TOMORROW  SPY 238.50 puts @ $ .19.  With the SPY closing @ $239.47 today these are worthless and should expire that way @ 0 for a further gain.  Also today our position in VRX (avg. cost $11.77) closed @ $12.06 +2.35 for a nice gain.

 

 Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 5/8/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 9TH

 

Today was an interesting day on the earning and deal front.  Bright and early we heard about Coach (COH +$2) and its take under of KATE +$1.45, STRP +$53.25 and its “unnamed” suitor, and a joint venture between Charter Com. (CHTR -$11) and CMCSA + .19 for a wireless deal.  Earnings misses were; HZNP-5.44, ADP -2.00, KITE -11, STMP -11,HTZ -2.53, CAR -2.15, CBI -3.03, NVRO -14.77 and P -.82. The beats were NWL +$5, MAR +3.17, QTNA +2.10, FN +1.70, and PETS +6.

 

The NASDAQ and S&P 500 both closed at all-time highs again with GOOGL +7.77, AMZN +13.55. AAPL +4.04, FB +.80, BA +1.01, TSLA -1.15, NFLX -.22, and IBM -.65.

Financials were mixed with GS – 1.93 but JPM +.06 and BAC +.22.  The oil rallied overnight but by the open this morning it was back to unchanged and spent most of the day in a narrow range with XOM + .87, APC -.28, CVX +.84, OXY +.33, COP +.36, BP +.13, PSX +.29 and MCP + .68.  It’s important to note that these oil companies are NOT JUST OIL but assets on and in the ground that have value beyond the day to day price of the commodity.

 

Retail was again lower with M -.30, JWN +.03, KSS -.82, WMT -.38, DDS -.70, RL -.02, SHLD -.21,JCP -.02 and the XRT- .10.

 

We got stopped out of our trade in AKAM on our 50% Down Rule but are holding on to SJM and HL positions. I’m also looking for a place to repurchase LABU (sold @ $53.55) and closed back near $45.  I did buy back CTL today.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/4/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 5TH

 

Today was an interesting day from the standpoint of the overall liquidation in the futures pits.  Besides the obvious losses in the oil and metals, even the grains, which have very healthy and bullish fundamentals and charts were hit by waves of selling that we don’t usually see without the margin clerks taking control of the liquidations.  For those of you that aren’t familiar with futures, margin is not the same as with stocks.  It is an actual down payment on the value of what you are contracting to buy or offering to sell and can be as little as 2 or 3% of the value.  It also means that your exposure may be 40 or 50 times what you put up and hence, margin calls are dealt with much more swiftly.

 

The oil broke down below the weekly lows @ $47.50 and continued lower by another $2.  Next support are the closes between $43-43.50.  The oils got smacked pretty hard with only APC +.05 (-$4 yesterday), CVX-1.84, XOM -1.06, OXY -2.05, COP -1.11, BP -.38, PSX -1.16, MPC-1.68 and the XLE -1.24.

 

The big names were mixed to lower with GOOGL +6.55, AMZN -3.73, AAPL -.46, FB -1.05, BA -.02, TSLA -15.14, NFLX +1.52, and IBM + .42.  Financials were higher with GS +.43, JPM +.17, and BAC + .11.

 

Market internals improved on NASDAQ but got worse on the NYSE.  NASDAQ was 3:4 A/D and 13:15 volume while on the NYSE it was almost 1:2 negative on both. The A.A.I.I. Sentiment numbers are unchanged, so no real influence from that quarter.

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/3/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 4th

 

 Today was a solidly lower day across the board even though the DJIA was higher by $8 at the close.  For the first time in a while new were actually much weaker than the averages portrayed.  NASDAQ – 22, S&P500 -3, Russell -8.44 and the Transports -20, but market internals were decidedly negative.  This mirrors yesterday’s action which was also negative, but not quite as bad.  Today the NASDAQ was 3:4 volume and 5:9 A/D with NYSE 4:5 and 2:3 respectfully.  Tomorrow should get off to a softer start since after the close we had earnings for FB -5.14 and TSLA -13.39.  SQ beat and is +.50.

 

The big names were mixed to lower with GOOGL +9.19, AMZN – 9.34, AAPL -.95, BA +.21, NFLX -1.44, IBM .35.  After the FOMC nonevent today the banks were higher with GS +.88, JPM +.33 and BAC +.20.  Oil was lower on bearish inventory numbers for gas and APC remained lower on its earning from yesterday finishing -4.33 while XOM was +.51.  The SCO (3X inverse ETF was + only .20.

 

Retail was mixed to higher with M -.31, JWN +.71, KSS +.84, WMT +.17, DSS+60, RL -1.00, SHLD_.28JCP +.05 and XRT -.29.

 

AKAM which was down 2.98 last night continued lower today finishing -9.62 or over 15%.

 

As I mentioned Sunday night and every night since, this market is very concerning.  Complacency seems to be the most prevalent emotion and that is definitely not a good thing.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/2/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 3RD

 

Today was another afternoon dominated by earnings reports.  MDLZ +.84, WTW+2.31, FEYE+1.30, FSLR+2.40, all beat and the misses; TWLO-10.50 (30%), MOS -1.92, AMD-3.31 (30%), GILD -1.67, ETSY -1.67, LITE -2.75, APC -2.17, LBY -1.92, AKAM -2.98,  and AAPL, who missed but is only lower by $1.78 with an increased buyback.

 

Autos were weak today with all reporting lower sales.  GM -1.00 and F-.50.  Retail was higher across the board; M +.66, JWN +1.29, KSS+1.15, WMT +.29, DDS +1.37, RL +1.38, SHLD +.51, JCP +.11, and the XRT + .30.

 

The market internals were even to negative today with the NYSE 1:1 on both A/D and volume but the NASDAQ was 3:4 volume and 4:5 A/D even though it closed at another new high.  If we run out of steam here it could get very sloppy very quickly.

 

Remember, they always look best at the top and worst at the bottom.  The big names were mixed to lower; GOOGL +7.94, AMZN -3.73, AAPL -1.78, FB -.21, BA +1.04, TSLA -4.39, NFLX +.80, IBM -.08.  Financials were lower with JPM -.70, GS -.14, BAC -.13 and oil lower with XOM +.05 but APC lower on earnings.  The oil is getting back to the lower end of the trading range ($45-$55) and unless there is some other circumstance, I think it continues to maintain the channel.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 5/1/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MAY 2ND

 

Today was another day dominated by the big names of the NASDAQ.  While the Dow was lower by $27 and the S&P500 was up and anemic .17%, GOOGL was +8.18, AMZN +26, AAPL +3.15, FB+ 2.39, TSLA +9.88, and NFLX +3.60.

 

Financials were higher with GS +.88, JPM unch, and BAC +.25 while retail was lower.  M -.25, JWN-.94, KSS -1.01, WMT + .02, DDS -.68, RL -1.06, JCP -.02, and XRT -.03.

 

While the internals of this market were stable today with the A/D roughly 4:3 positive only the NASDAQ volume was decidedly positive.  As this market continues to climb higher the leadership gets more and more narrow.  This trend becomes more dangerous as we move into the summer months when volume gets smaller and the moves get exaggerated.  When markets are “priced to perfection” and volume dries up, any disappointments bring out moves that hit areas that have an absence of buyers and cause gaps to the downside.

 

I only mention this because the VIX is reflecting so much complacency that it seems no one feels that it is necessary to own protection for the downside.  We have had so much upside that it is almost inevitable that we are going higher.  The “This time it’s different” crowd is solidly in control and the race to be the first $1 Trillion Company is on in earnest.  I can’t think of a worse setup for a long boring dangerous summer...

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/26/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING April 27th

 

Today was a “resting” day, unless you had an earnings beat or miss.  US Steel (X) was a carryover from yesterday and after losing $5 preopen, it continued even lower this morning opening -8.46.  TWTR had an unexpected jump and was +1.16, STX -8.43, MLNX -6, AMGN -5.80, BWLD -5.30, ORLY -4.96, WTW +2.92, DECK +3 on takeover spec, WYNN +5 on better Macao numbers while LVS was lower on a miss.  Edwards (EW) +12, IRobot (IR) +10, SAM missed and after trading $146 midday is $136 -8.

 

The big names were mixed as they consolidated after the last couple of days, GOOGL -.34, AMZN +1.38, AAPL -.74, FB -02, BA -1.80, TSLA -3.84, NFLX -2.04, and IBM -.24.  Financials were lower with GS - .77, BAC -.10, and JPM eked out a gain of .04.

 

Gold came back a bit with the weakened US$ while the oil had a down to up to down day finishing $49.62 + .06.

 

Market internals remained positive on both the NYSE and NASDAQ with volume slightly ahead but A/D solidly positive on both exchanges.  For a market that was up 2% the first 2 days of the week today was just what the doctor ordered.

 

Tomorrow’s another day…

 

 

CAM

 

   

 

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After the close 4/25/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 26TH

 

 

Today was another earnings driven open.  CAT beat and was +$6, MCD beat and was +3.50, MMM was + 1.75, ESRX beat last night but is losing its biggest customer ANTM and lost $8 or 12%, LMT missed and was -6, and KO had negative free cash flow while building inventories and traded lower.  The net result was an open in the DJIA +200.  The strength persisted all day and we closed with the DJIA leading the way up 232 or 1.12%, NASDAQ made another new all-time high closing over 6,025.

 

The big names were all higher with AMZN -.37 the only loser.  GOOGL +10.12, AAPL + .84, FB +1.04, BA +1.34, TSLA +5.72, and NFLX +8.30.

 

After the close US Steel (X) reported a miss and fell to $25.84 -5.36 or 17%.  CMG beat expectations on top and bottom lines and same store sales and traded over $504 to close at $485.60 +16.81.  PNRA missed bottom line but beat revenues and closed basically unchanged.

 

Gold was lower again as was silver and we sold our SCO (3X inverse oil ETF) for a gain of $4.05 or 12% when oil rallied to close near the highs.

 

The financials were higher again with GS +3.48, JPM + .52 and BAC + .32.  Retail was mixed after a 3 day rally with M + .09, JWN -.08, KSS -.21, WMT + .22, DDS - .17 and the XRT -.04.

 

Market internals continued positive but not excessive with NYSE and NASDAQ A/D 2:1 up and volume 2.5:1.

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/24/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 25TH

 

 

Today was an excellent example of what happens when an overnight geopolitical event takes place and the local markets react.  Some days we’re the dog and others we’re the tail.  Today we were the latter.  We started up in the futures markets last night (as noted in my special note.  We came out of the gate with A/D and volume running 5:1 and then settled around 3:1 volume and 2.5:1 A/D on both the NYSE and NASDAQ.

 

Financials were especially strong with GS + 6.26, JPM +3.01, BAC +.90 and the XLF closed  @ $23.68. Oil was lower by mid- morning and finished $49.30 and XOM + .45, APC + .08 and the XLE + .40.  The metals we lower but by early afternoon while the GDX -.41, GLD -.83, and we missed buying the GLD 5/121 calls by .08 and they closed $ .50 higher.

 

Last but not least, GOOGL + 20.05, AMZN +9.00, AAPL +1.51, FB + 1.75, BA +1.92, TSLA +2.13, NFLX + .89 and IBM + .32.

 

We may fade this markets rally tomorrow if we continue higher.  I would probably use the short dated SPY puts…

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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Late Sunday evening 4/23

SPECIAL NOTE

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 24th

 

 

Evening Everyone:

 

By now everyone should have heard how the French primary election went, and the futures love it.  Bonds are down (rates higher) and so the US$ is soft.  The oil is doing nothing, and as noted earlier, has pretty much de-coupled from the US$ and is trading on its supply/demand situation.

 

The strength has, however, caused the gold to move lower by as much as $22.50 and is now (9:00PM EDT) back to down $14.  The silver however has been down to $17.55- .30 but is now unchanged on the evening session.

 

The Dow is +172, S&P 500+22.00 and NASDAQ +47.50, so while it's a long night and pre-market morning, the first indications are positive...

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/20/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 21ST

 

 

Today was strong right from the start and we were totally prepared for it holding 2 separate positions in the SPY 4/235 calls.  We had an average cost of $ .29 and sold the first half @ $.57 and the second half @ $ .80 while they closed around $ .68.

 

There were more earnings today and the shining stars were Visa (V) +3.98, E-trade (EFTC) +1.88 and last night’s AXP +4.67. BB&T beat and was +1.10 but Proofpoint beat not by enough I guess and PFPT was trading -1.34 last time I looked.  Mattel (MAT) missed and is -1.40.  The other financials were higher with GS +3.97, JPM+1.09 and BAC +.34.

 

With the exception of RL- .28 and SHLD -.30 the retailers were all higher again.  M +.94, JWN +1.17, WMT +.68, DDS +1.86, JCP +.15 and the XRT +.79.  The big names were higher with the exception of TSLA -3.01 on news that it was issuing a recall on 53,000 of their Model S and X (half of last year’s production). GOOGL +3.49, AMZN +2.31, AAPL +1.77, FB +1.40,  BA +1.20, NFLX +1.34 and IBM +.61.

 

Market internals were 3:1 volume and 2.5:1 A/D on both the NYSE and NASDAQ, with all of the indexes higher on the day.  The DJ Transports led the way + 1.67% followed closely by the Russell +1.24% and the NASDAQ +.92%, DJIA +.85% and finally the S&P 500 a still respectable .85%.

 

We are maintaining our positions in the AGQ and SCO and issuing new sell stops in the Sunday night letter or via the free texting service.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/19/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 20TH

 

 

Today was another earnings driven market with the IBM selloff carrying over to open the DJIA lower and keeping it down all morning.  The other indexes did not follow and the NASDAQ, S&P500, Russell and the Transports held up well until later in the day when the price of oil started to fall.  By the close the oil was down 3.5% and the DJIA was lower by 118 and the S&P -4.02 with only the NASDAQ+13.56, the Russell+5.24 and the Transports +43 but closer to the low than the high. We own the SCO (3X Oil Inverse ETF) @ $35.05 which closed $36.37.

 

Market internals were split with the NYSE just negative on both the A/D and volume but the NASDAQ 1.5:1 volume and A/D.  The Gold was also lower with the minor strength in the US$, and our position in the AGQ is still a slight profit.  I am looking at support about $10-12 lower to repurchase the GDX (gold miners) on that dip.

 

The earnings continued today with some winners: AXP+1.46, ISRG +51.96, SCSS +4.26, QCOM +1.33, and CSX +1.64.  Some losers were EBAY-1.06, and URI -7.61.

Retail was higher after the Philadelphia Fed Report on Consumer confidence with M +.38, JWN +.45, KSS +.35, WMT +.16, DDS+1.45, RL+.47, SHLD-.03, JCP-.14, and the XRT +.25.

 

The big names were mixed with GOOGL +2.52, AMZN-4.86, AAPL -.46, FB+1.29, BA+.55, TSLA +5.25, and IBM on its follow-thru from last night’s earnings, -$8.08.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/18/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 19TH

 

 

Today was an excellent example of what happens when even the biggest of names have earnings misses.  Goldman Sachs (GS) had earnings in line with expectations last night but revenues and guidance were a little lighter than the Street wanted and we opened @$219.89 – 6.43 and just got worse all day finishing @$215.59-10.67 or 4.67%.  WW Grainger (GWW) did the same and finished @$197.57-25.40 or 11.39%, while IBM had numbers after today’s close and is currently trading @ $161.92 -9.18.  JNJ was also not immune to the disappointment as it missed and closed $121.82-3.90 or 3.1%.  As I’ve said before, repeatedly, this market has absolutely no tolerance for anything but perfection.

 

The market internals were not as bad as the decline appeared since GS, JNJ, and IBM are all DJIA stocks, and the NASDAQ was not as bad as the Dow.  While A/D was 15:14 down and volume was 3:5 on the NYSE, NASDAQ volume was even while the A/D was only 4:5 down.  The Russell was actually up, although only .05%.

 

The big names were lower with GOOGL -1.14, AAPL -.55, FB -.43, BA -1.17, TSLA -1.39, NFLX -3.96 and AMZN the only winner +.19.

 

As I mentioned in Sunday’s Weekly Strategies the 10 yr. US Treasury broke to a new low yield closing since the start of the year of 2.25% and today traded lower to 2.16%.  This flattens the yield curve and casts doubt on the magnitude of any actual recovery.  For that reason, even if GS had not reported, the other financials were lower with JPM - .80 and BAC -.14.  I have always maintained that without the financials in gear it is almost impossible to have a healthy bull market.  I’m not saying it’s over, but when things are priced for “perfection” it’s easy to see the makings of a correction coming.

 

Retail was again mixed with M -.11, JWN -.02, KSS -.08, WMT +.40, DDS -.25, RL -.47, SHLD +.57, JCP +.02 and the XRT + .16.

 

 Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 4/17/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 18TH

 

 

Today was strong right from the start to the finish.  According to Yale Hirsch (The Stock Trader’s Almanac) this is the best week of the year.  Hard to argue with today’s action since the internals were strong on both the NASDAQ and NYSE.  The A/D was almost 3:1 on both with the volume 4:1 on NYSE and 3:1 NASDAQ.

 

All of the indexes were up close to 1% with the Transports leading with a gain of 1.3% followed by the Russell up 1.2.  The only sector that did not perform today was energy with the XLE basically flat.

 

Financials led the way with the XLF up 1.75% with GS +4.68, JPM +1.50, and BAC +.63.  The big names were higher across the board with GOOGL +15.72, AMZN +18.03, AAPL +.75 (reports later this week) fb + 2.39, BA +3.28, NFLX +6.35 (after beating earnings) and IBM +1.59.  The only one of this group that was lower was BA -3.88.

 

Retail was mixed with M -.33, JWN - .47, KSS -.55, WMT +.31, DDS -.13, RL +.85, SHLD +.35, and JCP -.22.

 

The metals were a little lower as the bonds sold off a bit and the US$ rallied slightly.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/11/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 12TH

 

 

Today was a video replay of yesterday, just in reverse.  We opened lower and continued to sell off until we reached -140 around 11:00 AM.  We can into the day with S&P puts that expire tomorrow with a 235 strike and almost hit the 100% up trigger @ $1.80 (trigger was 1.82) and I texted a sell of half anyway and we closed out the first half @ $1.66.  A little later we sold the balance at $ .92 or a penny above our buy price and switched to the S&P 4/13 (Thursday expo) 235 calls @ $ .57, which when we rallied back to close almost unchanged closed $.72.  Obviously we need to close these out tomorrow or Thursday, but with the close 12 cents off the high and 1.75 off the low.  I would expect some follow-thru tomorrow barring any major problems. The last time we had a selloff followed by a reversal day like today was 3/27and we closed 233.62 and traded as much as $2.20 higher the next day.  I’d gladly settle for half.

 

The internals we divergent again today with the NYSE again stronger than NASDAQ.  NYSE A/D was 9:5 up while NASDAQ was only 5:4.  NYSE volume was only 4:3 up but

NASDAQ was 7:10 DOWN.

 

The big names were mostly lower, but not by much.  GOOGL -.80, AMZN -3.76, AAPL -1.81, FB -1.07, BA +.74, TSLA -4.39, NFLX +.60, IBM -.62,  financials were all lower with GS-.90, JPM -.15, and BAC -.13 due to a new closing low for the month in the US 10yr treasuries and therefore the US$.

 

Also dramatically affected by the weakening US$ and its recent selloff were both the Gold and Silver.  We are long GDX (miners), AGQ ( 3X Silver ETF) and the AGQ calls. AGQ closed $41.99+2.05 and GDX$24.36+ .71.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/10/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 11TH

 

 

Today was a classic holiday shortened week day with low volume and an inability to maintain a gain that the market mounted not once but twice.  We opened higher and rallied to +90 and sat, fell back to slightly lower by midday and again rallied to +75 only to fall back to close basically unchanged.  The A/D on NYSE was almost 2:1 positive while the NASDAQ was 14:13 DOWN.  That’s quite a divergence for a market that is tech-heavy and has led the way all year.

 

The big names were mixed with GOOGL -.40, AMZN+13.11, AAPL-.19, FB+.23, BA-1.40, TSLA (again upgraded)+9.68, nflx+1.19, ibm-.94; financials also mixed with GS+1.12, but JPM-.20 & BAC-.14. The S&P500 again tried to break above the halfway mark from last Wednesday’s reversal and finished up a dismal 1.62 or .07%.

 

Oil continued strong with APC+.46 and XOM +.45.  Retail finally had a good day.  Maybe a “dead cat bounce, maybe just so bad it looked good.  M+.42, JWN +.87, KSS +.90, WMT +.24, DDS+1.99, RL+1.25, SHLD +.53, JCP+.24 and the XRT + .60.

 

All in all a great showing for a badly beaten down group.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/6/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 7TH

 

 

Today was a classic test of the cascading decline we had yesterday across the board.  We had an okay open about unchanged and after trying the lows we rebounded and took all the economic reporting in stride.  All went well until we failed to make it any further than min-range of yesterday and couldn’t quite get any traction.  I sat all day long thinking about pulling the plug on the SPY puts and the AQG calls, but just decided to hold on.  Sure enough we weakened again between 2:30 and the close. Most will say “between the reversal in AMZN, and the failed rally we are going lower,” but I think the downside will be limited.

 

Big names were mixed; GOOGL -3.91, AMZN -9.53, AAPL -.32, FB -.70, BA -56, TSLA +3.87, NFLX, .,04, and IBM -.43. Financials were all higher but not by much; GS +.96, JPM +.13 and BAC +.11.  Oil was higher and tonight the futures are slightly higher.

 

There is plenty going on in the world and most of it no good, so the best thing to do is back off a little, if you want to buy, do so sparingly and keep something on the side and be sure to have some protection.  I like the SPY puts and am maintaining positions in GLD and AGQ (3X  silver ETF).

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/5/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 6TH

As I’ve discussed here for the last several days, the market has finally shown that the internals do in fact catch up to prices.  Today the DJIA was up as much as almost 200 after the better than expected ADP numbers.  Later the FED minutes came out and we started to weaken slightly but came on again.  When the oil turned down, it took the market lower and we worked lower with AMZN trading from the new all-time high at $923.72 turned soft, we also generated more selling across the board. The internals went from 3:1 up at 10:00AM to even by about 2:30 to 2:1 down volume and 5:2 down A/D on NASDAQ.  On the NYSE it went from 5:1 up volume to 2.5:1 down by the close and 2:1 down A/D.

 

We came into the day long XOM and OIH calls which were sold mid-morning near the highs and we had an order to buy calls on the SCO (3X Inverse Oil ETF) as well as the actual ETF filled at $35.05 and closed at $36.34.

 

The big names were lower across the board with GOOGL-4.57, AMZN+.62 but 16 off the highs, FB-.33, BA-.37, TSLA-8.20, NFLX-2.15, IBM-1.77 and GS-2.26, JPM-1.32, BAC -.38 and MSFT -.35.  Retail put in another poor performance with M -.07, JWN-.48, TJX-.78, TGT-.68 and the XRT -.51.

We also bought SPY 4/12 235 PUTS at $ .91 before the close and they finished at  $1.49.

 

While this may not be “the” top, it’s hard to argue that a couple of percent pullback could certainly wring out some of the recent excesses.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

CAM

 

   

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After the close 4/4/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 5TH

 

Today was a boring affair without much action unless you happen to be long AMZN or TSLA or PNRA or are short SDRL or CRVS, or have a position in any of the XRT stocks.

Fresh off a new upgrade with a price of $1,100, AMZN crossed $900 for the first time.  Also making a new all-time high on “possible” Chinese interest and a beat on Q1 deliveries TSLA crossed $300 mark.  PNRA was talked about yesterday as a takeover was up $20 to $282 Monday was down 8 at 274 when the announcement of a possible deal with JAB, is trading right now at $307+24.  Great if you own it, but it’s already up over 20% in the last 6 days and 45% since February and I would doubt that there’s much room for a lot higher bid.

 

On the downside, CRVS, another biotech with a disappointing trial result opened at $20.75 this morning and closed $10.36 after trading as low as $8.27.

 

Internals were about even on the volume on both but while the A/D was even on NYSE, NASDAQ A/D was 4:3 down.  From my point of view this rally gets narrower daily.  The retail sector continues to falter and now that auto sales, reported yesterday, were disappointing it makes you wonder where the savings from cheap gas and zero rates are going.  It looks like maybe more casual dining.  Certainly not TIF, M, RL or even JCP or SHLD.

 

Big names were mixed to higher with GOOGL-4.74, AMZN+15.58, AAPL+1.17, FB-.51, BA+2.20, TSLA+3.48, NFLX -1.33, and IBM+.24.  Financials were also mixed with GS +1.02, JPM +.41, but BAC -.11.

 

We also got filled on our order for the SCO 4/37 calls today on the rally in oil.  I’ll be selling my second half of XOM calls and OIH calls on any further rally into the resistance above the $52-53 area.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 4/3/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING APRIL 4TH

 

Today was one of the worst looking rallies I have ever seen. Today should have been a monster day with big volume as investors put their money to work on the first day of the 2nd quarter.  Instead we had what many might call a decent recovery that got us back to “almost” unchanged, but the internals tell an entirely different story.  The leadership in the NASDAQ was nonexistent from the start and with an average day of volume finished 2:1 down on both volume and A/D.  On the NYSE it was also just an average volume day but that volume was stilted 3.3:1 with the A/D of 5:3 down.

 

It could, of course be worse, you could have been long Imagination Tech, a UK semiconductor who lost their deal with AAPL and closed $103 -165 or just 61.6% It trades here under the symbol IGNMF and closed $1.38 -2.18.

 

The big names were mixed; GOOGL +9.21AAPL -.03, AMZN +3.71, FB+.15, BA -.21,

TSLA +20.22 (on delivery numbers for Q1), NFLX-.71, and IBM +.44.  Financials were soft and came back but finished lower with GS -.97, JPM -.38 and BAC -.11.

 

Other big movers on news were STDY $7.70+1.90 after trading $9.70 on a patent settlement, NVCR $10.90 +$2.80 after trading $14.30 on a new Brain cancer drug.  As usual there is always a daily disaster (IGNMF) and several home runs in Bio.

 

We also finally got our position in AGQ 4/42 calls today @ $1.00.  I’ll discuss

It tomorrow.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

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After the close 3/30/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 31ST

 

 Today was another constructive day without any of the excesses that spell trouble.  The markets were higher across the board and the internals finished the day with positive readings in both the NASDAQ and NYSE of about 5:4 volume and 3:2 A/D.

 

Oil continued to firm and while March didn’t work well as a “seasonal” favorite, April is the number one month for the S&P Energy sector.  More to the point, the OIH (oil service ETF) and two of its main components, HAL and TSO are looking much better.  Our position in XOM 4/82 calls triggered my 100% Up Rule this morning and we sold half @ $1.52 and they closed at $1.77 +.72. (They were $1.90 bid $2.35 offered at the close).  XOM +1.63, APC -.26, CVX -32, and the big winner, COP +4.05 or 8.1%.

 

The big names were mixed and with its recent rise AMZN +2.12 made Jeff Bezos pull ahead of Warren Buffett on the Forbes Richest list.  The others were GOOGL -.28, AAPL -.30, BA +.45, TSLA +.65, IBM-.16, NFLX +1.69 and FB -.30.  Financials were led by GS+2.75, JPM +.83, and BAC +.61 or over 2.6%.  Our position in the GS 4/232.50 calls (bot @ $1.51) closed $2.10 with a high of $2.55.  100% Up rule trigger is $3.02.

 

Tomorrow is the last day of the first quarter of the year and there tends to be some “window-dressing, as the funds want to show they own the winners and not the losers, and this may cause some distortions, but historically it reverses itself in coming days.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 3/29/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 30TH

Today was a boring affair from start to finish.  Internals finished pretty much the same as yesterday at 1.8:1 volume and 2:1 A/D with the major indices mixed.  DJIA -42, NASDAQ +22, S&P 500 +2.55 and Russell +4.38.  The oil was up over $1.00 and closed near its highs on the news that gas inventories were a drawdown instead of the expected build.  Our position in XOM gained from the report and closed $82.08 + .28 and our calls (bought @ $.74) closed $1.05.  APC was up $1.75, CVX + $1.03, VLO +.85 and OXY +.38.  The XLE was up another $1.17 or 1.69%.  Our position in VRX also improved with the stock gaining $ .75 and finally closing $11.17+.49 or 5%.

 

The big names were higher with GOOGL +10.37, AAPL +.32, AMZN +18.77, BA + .27, TSLA -.05, IBM - .66, NFLX +1.33, and FB +.89.  The financials were slightly lower with JPM - .30, GS -1.23, and BAC -.12.

 

Retail made up some ground today with Restoration Hardware RH gaining $5.68 or 15.37% on an earnings beat and helping the XRT +.82 or almost 2%.

 

After the close LULU missed its lowered expectations and reported $1.00 vs. $1.01 but issued dramatically lowered guidance for the balance of the year and fell from $67 to $54 or roughly 20%.

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 3/28/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 29TH

 

Today was picture perfect for a follow through day after a major break followed by a close near the highs.  Our position in GS could not have acted better with an unchanged open followed 10 minute run from $225.50 to $227.80 and some consolidation for the next hour or so for its move to $229.50.  It spent the rest of the day between $228 and $229.75 and closed just under the highs +$4.12.  A near perfect setup for tomorrow.  Next real resistance around $233-234 range, above our strike.

 

The oils also rallied and the XOM calls bought @ $ .74 yesterday closed today at their highs of $1.06 +.22.  The oil tested the $47 level Friday and held and had an okay day yesterday.  If it can move over $49 we may be able to ride the XOM a little longer.

 

The internals today were positive all day but not excessive. NASDAQ started slightly positive and built all day to finish 1.8:1 A/D and 2:1 volume.  The NYSE started the same way but finished 3:1 on both counts.  A very solid showing.

 

The big names were higher with GOOGL +2.49, AMZN ++11.18, AAPL (which everyone loved to hate) was +2.82 to a new all-time high, BA +1, TSLA +8.53, IBM +.73, NFLX +1.31, and FB +1.41 after bringing out several SNAP type tools and SNAP was -1.80 or 7.55% lower.  The financials were led by the aforementioned GS +$4.12, JPM +1.58, and BAC +.54.

 

All in all a strong bounce after the first 1% move in over 100 days…

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

   

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After the close 3/27/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 28TH

 

We couldn’t have started off any worse than we did today.  As noted in last night’s Weekly Strategies the futures were down across the board with the exception of the gold.  Since we already have a position in NUGT there was little that we had to do about that, but we also decided to place orders in both LABU and XOM to take advantage of the down open.  We bought the XOM 4/82 calls under our price on the gap down and saw them go from our purchase price of $ .74 to close @ $ .84.  We missed the LABU when it opened @ $44.44 and the calls were our bid @ $1.90 but didn’t trade there only to rally back to close $48.60 and the options $3.15.  We also used the free texting service to buy some GS calls which although the stock was down on the day closed $5 off the low and only 1.50 off the high, and excellent setup for tomorrow.

 

The internals were on NASDAQ were almost 3:1 at the open and closed 4:3 positive at the close and the NYSE was the same at the open but could only manage even money at the close.  These are not bad for a day that say a 185 drop at the open and a closing loss of only $46  on the Dow, S&P 500 – only $2.39 and the NASDAQ +11.63.

 

The big names came back and closed mixed but mostly higher; GOOGL +3.37, AAPL +.29, AMZN +1.21, BA +.28, TSLA +7.72 IBM - .08 NFLX +2.16,FB +.09 and the financials all slightly lower with GS -2.76 (after -7), BAC -.09 and the standout JPM +.11.

 

The IBB and hospital stocks were higher as were the XRT and although lower on the day, even the XLE rallied off its lows.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/23/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 24th

 

Today was another consolidation day with internals that again did not match the indexes net changes.  While all were lower except the Russell the up volume was slightly better than the down volume but the A/D was 2:1 positive on both the NYSE and NASDAQ.

 

After the minor rally, the oil again closed lower and tonight we are basically unchanged.  The Gold was pretty much the same and is slightly lower this evening.

 

The big names were mixed with GOOGL -10.15, AAPL - .63, AMZN -1.36, BA + .28, TSLA + .49, IBM + .12, NFLX -.81, the financials were GS +1.17, JPM - .08 and BAC recovered  by a meager + .18.

 

I was ready to buy the S&P (SPY) 4/234 puts around 2:00pm today around the $234.80 level but waited too long…there will be another chance.  There’s just too much political BS at this point.

 

Tomorrow’s another day.

 

CAM

 

 

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After the close 3/22/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 23rd

 

Today was not a big follow-thru or a reversal but it was constructive nonetheless.  The oil, after a clear break did move lower right to the round number $47 before a rally carried it all the way back to close a shade over $48.  It was still down on the day by $ .20 but closed 75% up on the range.  Does this mean the move down is over?  Not a chance, but a couple of days of stabilization would change that.

 

As for the markets, we had a divergence between the NYSE and NASDAQ internals today.  Whereas the NASDAQ volume was 1.5:1 up, but A/D was 3:4 down, the NYSE was 1:1 on both measures.

 

Gold was slightly higher again and working its way into the overhead resistance between $1,250-60.  We are still long NUGT calls and came within $ .02 of triggering the 100% Up Rule for liquidation of the first half of the position.

 

The big names were mixed but mostly higher; GOOGL -.034, AAPL +1.49, AMZN +4.86, BA+1.02, TSLA +4.21, IBM +.90, NFLX + .23, and FB +.23.

Financials were also mixed with GS -1.95, BAC +.03, and JPM +.14.  The spread between the 2yr. and 10 yr. treasuries narrowed again, for a flattening of the yield curve…never a good sign.  The US$ closed mid-range but also slightly lower on the day.

 

Tomorrow’s another day.

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 3/21/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 22nd

 

Today was ugly right from the start.  The market seemed to be tied to the oil again with a healthy dose of woes in the financial sector.  The other un-coupling was the oil and gold vs. the US$.  The 10year (traded 2.61 on Fed day last week) continued lower again overnight and this morning trading in the 2.44 range.  This is an extreme move over a 4 day period, and it goes hand in hand with a weaker US$.  Gold rallied hard after its successful test of $1,200 and its break above $1,220.  Resistance is now between $1,250-60.

 

The oil’s close below $48.35 sets us on the way to a test of $44.  As mentioned last week, support by any group or individual inevitably fails.  This clearly de-coupled from the lower US$ and the GLD.  There is also a glut of “winter blend” gas in storage and when the season changes shortly it will have to continue to be stored or exported to make way for “summer blend.”

 

Internals were also lousy. The numbers closed at their worst levels of the day on both the NYSE and NASDAQ.  NASDAQ was slightly worse at almost 8:1 volume and 5:1 A/D vs 5:1 volume and 4:1 on NYSE.

 

Retail made new lows with XRT -2%, transports, IYT -1.91%, vs DJIA -1.14%, S&P -1.24%, NASDAQ -1.82%, and the Russell -2.71.  From my prospective it seems like there was a lot of profit-taking in the areas that had good gains before they evaporated.  It will take another day or two before the “buy on dips” folks feel comfortable enough to step back in.  This is typical of profit-taking, not a top, but time will tell.

 

The big names were clearly not exempt; GOOGL -17.70, AAPL -1.91, AMZN -14.73, BA -3.39, TSLA -11.17, IBM -1.89, NFLX -3.44, and the financials were stung with GS -9.59, JPM -3.03 and BAC -1.55 (a whopping 6.34%.)

 

With the exception of GLD and the leveraged Inverse ETFs there was nowhere to hide.  As always we’ll take some solace in the fact:

 

Tomorrow’s another day…

 

 

CAM

   

 

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After the close 3/20/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 21st

 

Today was another fairly boring day with little action to even consider of any importance.  The hearings went on endlessly with all of the fools asking questions that had no answers that made any difference to anyone, unless you might have had to “get you name into the record as a participant.”  Even those who asked these inane and hypothetical run-on questions get lost in the minutiae of their foolishness.

 

The internals on the NYSE didn’t give much direction either, both A/D and volume were 4:3 down and the NASDAQ volume was actually just positive while the A/D was 1.8:1.

 

The big names were mixed with GOOGL -4/37, AAPL +1.56, AMZN +4.39, BA - .71, TSLA + .45, IBM + .10, NFLX+ .62, FB+.13 and  the financials lower across the board.  GS was -1.88, JPM -.73 and BAC -.42.

 

Oil was also lower and all sectors from drilling to exploration to refining saw falling prices.  APC - .41, CHX - .08, XOM unch, VLO -.37 and PSX -66.

 

The Gold was slightly higher but trading down a few dollars in the futures tonight.

 

 

CAM

                       

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After the close 3/16/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 17th

 

Thursday was the typical follow-thru and sell-off for most of the averages.  NASDAQ and the Russell managed minor gains while the rest had minor losses.  The internals on the NYSE A/D was 4:3 and volume was even and on NASDAQ we saw more strength with the A/D 4:3 but volume also 5:3.

 

The A.A.I.I. Sentiment numbers today show the Bulls still 20% under average and the Bears with a dramatic decline still 20% over average.  These are a contrarian indicator and show that there are still more bears than bulls.  While not a black and white issue, they are an indicator of more upside to come.

 

Another day of mixed results for the big names; GOOGL +2.36, AAPL +.15, AMZN +.03, BA -.24, TSLA +6.27, IBM +1.60, NFLX -.57 and FB+ .20.  Some of the Defense sector were weak with LMT -.44, GD -1.01, HON -.61 and NOC -3.56.

 

Oil followed the DJIA (or the other way around) and was weak after the follow-thru with APC -.71, XON +.07, CVX -1.02, and OXY -1.24.  Financials were also mixed with GS +1.91, JPM -.13 and BAC +.09.

 

The best trades of the day for us were the sales of NUGT @ $9.76 (closed 9.04) and the GLD calls @ $2.32 (cost $ .90), and the purchase of some more VRX @ $11.08.  After the close ($11.20) Value Act came out with a filing for purchase of 5.2% stake and after trading 11.87 it is 11.68 tonight.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/15/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 16TH

  

Welcome back Goldilocks!!  We had the best of all worlds today when the Fed made their announcement of a .25% rate hike.  The street got the message that the FED actually realized that the market could take it in stride, the bonds market (which had already done the FEDs work for it) had already moved the 10year from a base around 2.10% up to 2.61 took off to the upside as adjusted its yield lower by 8 or 10 basis points, and finally, to match our thoughts (and positions) rallied the gold from under $1,200 to trading tonight around $1,222.  This should be considered a successful test of the $1,200 level as discussed the past several night’s notes.  We sold half of the GLD calls but none of the NUGT.

 

The oil, which turned on yesterday’s API report continued higher and has moved from $47 to trade tonight over $49.10.  The only group that didn’t get a lift from the news was the financials.  GS -.64, BAC -.10 but JPM + .37.

 

The big guys were moderately higher with GOOGL +2.48, AAPL +1.54, AMZN -.22,

BA - .02, TSLA +3.03, IBM +.83, NFLX +2.13, and FB +.59.

 

NYSE internals were dramatic, with the A/D 6.5:1 and volume 5:1 while the NASDAQ was subdued at 2.5:1 and just over 2:1.

 

All in all it was a pretty good day without much to complain about…..

 

Tomorrow is another day.

CAM

   

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After the close 3/14/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 15th

 

Just a short note now that we have power back; the market looks a bit higher this morning with the futures up across the board.  The turn came after the Oil inventory came out as a significant drawdown and the futures rallied from down $ .80 to actually up on the day.  Right now (8:25 EST) the futures are up over the past 2 days highs at $48.75.  The Gold is also a bit firmer and holding my support area at $1,200.

 

Today is FED day and as I’ve mentioned repeatedly the raising of the rate by .25% really should not have much effect on the market since the bonds have been doing the Fed’s job for the last several weeks.  The only fly in the ointment would be a bigger raise (unlikely) or the statement being overly hawkish.

 

Retail sales can out this morning and they came up 1/10% and up 2/10% ex autos, and the CPI up the same.  The market reaction was muted ahead of the FED meeting.

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/13/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 14th

 

Today was a typical pre-Fed day.  I had more excitement when I had my new condo painted and hadn’t had my cable installed yet.  The internals were unimpressive and balanced with the NASDAQ faring slightly better than the NYSE.  Mobileye (MBLY) was the star with INTC buying the company for $63.25 or a scant 35% premium from Friday’s close.  AMBA got dragged along (we own it higher) and closed $56.67+3.87 on spec that it might be the next takeover.  AMBA gets a bad rap from being involved with GPRO, down from its high of $98 to make a new low today of $7.53.

 

Also another mixed day for the big names; GOOGL +3.17, AAPL +.11, AMZN +2.14BA failed to fall in a downgrade from MS and closed + .48,tsla +3.11, IBM -1.27, and FB +.81.

 

Financials were mixed with AXP -.29, JPM + .03, GS - .17 and BAC unch.  The Metals trade is still soft but the actual gold commodity looks like it is trying to dig in and the GDX was slightly high by .27.  Oil is trying to hold too, but the actual traded below $48 before climbing back to $48.40 – only $ .06.  Both are oversold and I got long the GLD and NUGT today around closing prices..

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/9/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 10th

 

 

Sometimes even a top and bottom beat doesn’t do it, and after the close ULTA did exactly that, and immediately traded from $274 to 259 -14.  Guidance was a shade light, but this is not a new company and you’d think 15% gains would satisfy nearly everyone.  Finisar (FNSR) was so lucky with the numbers and traded from 35 to 27.50 before leveling off around 29 off over 20%.  ZUMZ also missed and is off almost 20%.  As I have stated many times, beating lowered expectations or outright misses are not tolerated by this market.

 

Most of the indexes were higher with the standout s the Transports and the Russell.  The big names mixed again with GOOGL +4.56, AAPL -.15, AMZN +3.49, TSLA -1.57, BA -1.39, IBM -2.00, NFLX + .39, FB +.58, while the financials were higher with GS +.34, JPM +.58 and BAC +.23.

 

The oil was the worst influence on the day first breaking $50 and then $49.  The 2 day decline of over 7% caused breaks across the board with some small bounces in APC + .54, CVX +.55, and XOM +.72.

 

Last but not least, the continuing selloff in the bonds is causing declines across the metals complex.  While the gold has not broken 1200 yet, if the employment numbers look anything like yesterday’s ADP gain of  298,000 it certainly will.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/8/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 9TH

 

Today’s action in oil was typical of a market that was heavily non-commercial (speculators) driven with someone (Saudi’s) trying to support prices ahead of the huge prospective offering of the ARAMCO stock.  This should stand as an example that no one is bigger than the market and that corners, or bogus support never works.  While the rig counts and the storage numbers should have been at least partially outweighed by the continuing growth of demand, this artificially supported market showed cracks and ultimately failed, taking with it XOM -1.34, APC -1.76, CVX -2.06 and the XLE -1.86 or 2.6%.

 

The good news is that in the “old days” (a year ago), this would have collapsed the rest of the market, and while we were down 70 in the Dow, only .33% it was nothing extensive.

 

The big names were again mixed with GOOGL +3.84, AAPL -.48, AMZN +4.48, TSLA -1.70, BA - .17, NFLX - .93, and FB +.55.  Financials were little changed after the ADP numbers blew away all expectations with new hires +298,000 vs. 189 expected.  This drove the 10 year up almost 8 basis points and helped the yield curve bend higher.  GS was -.50, JPM unch, and BAC +.11.

 

The gold was lower again after breaking thru the 1220 support.  This leaves the round number $1200 as a line in the sand.  Our position in the GLD calls was down, but has not come to the 50% Down Rule trigger.  I still believe we have a bounce coming.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/7/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 8TH

 

 

Today was retail day and it started with the miss and poor guidance from Dick’s Sporting (DKS) down 4.43 or 8.42%.  The others followed with JWN -1.47, M + .12, DDS + .19, RL -.26 and the XRT - .26.  These have all been lower for the past several days and have not shown any ability to rally.

 

The overall market did no better with all indexes lower.  DJIA -30, NASDAQ -14, S&P 500 -6.92, RUSSELL -9.37 and the Transports the big loser -103 or 1.1%.  The airlines were the main culprit with LUV - .63, AAL -.51, DAL -1.21, JBLU -.05, UAL -.49 and even HA – 1.30 although there is some takeover speculation there.

 

The big names were mixed with GOOGL +3.88, AAPL + .18, AMZN -1.10, TSLA -3.56, BA +1.37, IBM + .03, NFLX  -.51, FB - .12 and the financials down across the board,  JPM --.57, GS -1.11 and BAC - .03.

 

The internals were again MUCH weaker on both the NYSE and NASDAQ.  NYSE was never better than 2:1 down and finished 3:1 down volume and 2.5:1 A/D.  NASDAQ was slightly better with A/D closing solidly 2:1 down but volume only 1.5:1 lower.

 

The backlash for the non-voting share offering of SNAP continued again today in earnest.  It closed down $2.60 at $21.17 after trading as low as $20.64.  As of the open today anyone who bought the stock after it started trading was facing a loss.

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/6/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 7TH

 

 

Today’s rally from down 93 to down only 20 just before the last minute selloff to close -51 was not very encouraging.  To begin with, the internals were poor even though they did improve during the day, but closed weak.  The NYSE A/D started out 2:1 down and finished 2.5:1, while volume was as bad as 4:1 and finished solidly 3:1 down.  NASDAQ was a little better improving from 3:1 to 1.5:1 volume and 2.5:1 A/D.  Really nothing to be pleased about.  Transports were down 3 times the DJIA (.75% vs .25%) as was the Russell, while the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P500 were down only .35% on average.

 

After Barron’s was negative on SNAP, it opened higher and made a new high at $28.25 before trading sharply lower to close $23.74-3.35 or 12.37%.

 

The big names were slightly lower with GOOGL -1.81, AAPL - .40, AMZN -4.38, TSLA -.21, IBM +.55, BA -1.29, NFLX +2.81 (reported good sub growth), and FB + .19.  The financials were also soft with JPM -.95, GS -1.44, and BAC - .20.  The metals were a real disappointment and we got stopped out of our GLD position on 50% Down Rule.

 

While it is to be expected, every fool is coming out and talking about the “coming collapse” of this market and eventually they will be right, at least to some extent.  While I am cautious and have been for a while, we are not yet to a point of capitulation where retail just “has to be long or be left behind.”  We’ll have to wait until we see what the Fed does, and what the market does with that before I make that judgement.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/2/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING March 3rd

 

There are days when we just have to sit back and relax after several strong days up, and today was clearly one of those.  We didn’t give up much compared to how far we’ve come in the recent past and some profit taking was certainly in order.  We had become very overbought, even though the A.A.I.I. sentiment indicators as of Wednesday night were still almost 20% over bearish and just about average bullish.  I would have expected the bulls to have taken command after a 300 point up day.

 

Of the big names, we had pretty much exactly what you would expect, GOOGL -5.15, AAPL - .54, AMZN -4.17, TSLA + .20, BA _.90, IBM -1.42, NFLX -3.12 and FB - .70.  The financials followed with GS -1.71, JPM -1.42, and BAC - .28.  The metals were under pressure as the gold again fell and unfortunately did not recover to close near the highs this time.  Oil fell by $1.20 and although XOM was slightly higher + .33, APC was lower by $1.93, and CVX - .39.

 

The internals were soft with the NYSE A/D and volume almost 3:1 down and NASDAQ slightly better at 2:1 for both.

 

I’m keeping this short tonight since I’m in the final stages of moving, and I’m swamped with all the grief and aggravation that goes along with it.  Next time I just want to burn down the old place with all of my possessions in it, drive to the new place and buy all new stuff.

 

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

CAM

 

   

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After the close 3/1/2017

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition

 

FOR TRADING MARCH 2ND

 

Really, what can you say about up 300 and all of the indices participating, even the Transports and the Russell?  28 of the 30 DJIA stock higher on the day, 19 of 20 Transports, can’t really argue with those kind of numbers.

 

The President acted presidential last night and the result was that confidence was given another shot in the arm.  Even Matt Lauer on the Today Show this morning shamed Chuck Schumer by repeatedly pressing him (quite incredulously) “you mean there was NOTHING you