Email, Michael New, visiting associate professor of economics, Ave Maria University, Jan. 14, 2016

7:55 p.m.

The Guttmacher paper you cited is interesting, but I have a few issues with it

It offers a retrospective analysis about the percentage of women 15-44 who have had abortions. However,  there are some problems with the specific prediction the authors make. The authors predict that 30 percent of women will have an abortion by age 45 if the 2008 abortion rate prevailed.

However, the 2008 abortion rate is unlikely to prevail.  The abortion rate has been falling consistently since the early 1980s and continues to fall. In fact, it the abortion rate fell by 13 percent between 2008 and 2011.

Second, the abortion rate is falling faster among teens and young adults than the population as a whole. That might mean (if trends continue) that women might be less likely to have an abortion. See the chart on page 4

https://lozierinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/On-Point-Wills-The-Overlooked-Key-to-the-Drop-in-U.S.-Abortions.pdf

Third, the repeat abortion rate has been fairly stable, but the first time rate has gone down. This trend might also mean that women will be less likely to obtain abortions

The Washington Post fact-checked this statistic in September

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/09/30/the-stale-claim-that-one-in-three-women-will-have-an-abortion-by-age-45/

Hope this helps.

Michael New

Visiting Associate Professor

Ave Maria University