DATA PRODUCED BY TRIPLECROWN24
UPDATED BACKYARD BREAKS - BIG HITS BREAKDOWN:
To find the odds of pulling this card, we need to figure out the total number of Flawless cases produced. Per Cardboard Connection, you receive one diamond card and one memorabilia card (which the LeBron James card is classified as) per box of regular hobby and first of the line (FOTL). The diamond “base” checklist has 200 subjects with parallels available exclusively to only certain cards. Here’s the breakdown of all diamond cards:
100 “Base” Cards * /20 Base = 2,000 cards
/10 Gold = 1,000 cards
/5 Emerald = 500 cards
/1 Platinum = 100 cards
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Total: 3,600 cards
30 “Legends” Cards * /5 Base = 150 cards
/1 Platinum = 30 cards
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Total: 180 cards
30 “Picks” Cards * /5 Base = 150 cards
/1 Platinum = 30 cards
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Total: 180 cards
20 “All-Stars” Cards * /5 Base = 100 cards
/1 Platinum = 20 cards
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Total: 120 cards
20 “USA” Cards * /5 Base = 100 cards
/1 Platinum = 20 cards
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Total: 120 cards
The sum of these print runs gives us 4,200 diamond cards in Flawless. Additionally there are three diamond “insert” sets in the Larry O’Brien, NBA Logo, and Team Logo gems. Each of these inserts have a 10 subject checklist with all cards being 1/1s, adding 30 diamond cards to the total for 4,230 overall. Since diamonds fall one per briefcase, that would equate to 4,230 briefcases of 2020/21 Flawless NBA produced.
However, this does not account for FOTL briefcases. These must be added to the total since FOTL briefcases contain the same number of memorabilia cards (1) as a regular hobby briefcase. Per Cardboard Connection, FOTL briefcases contain two exclusive bronze diamond parallels. Since there are no other diamond parallels in FOTL, we multiply the full 200 card “base” and variation checklist to get 600 total FOTL diamond parallels. From there, we can determine the number of Flawless FOTL briefcases.
600 total FOTL diamond parallels / 2 parallels per briefcase = 300 briefcases
Therefore…
4,230 Hobby Briefcases + 300 FOTL Briefcases = 4,530 Briefcases
4,530 Briefcases / 1 Mem. Card Per Briefcase = 1 in 4,530 chance to pull LeBron Triple Logoman
Layton’s YouTube channel shows 64 full case breaks of 2020/21 Flawless. This does NOT include any briefcases that were included in mixers or opened for personal breaks. To account for this, let’s round the total up to 70 full cases opened, or 140 briefcases opened.
140 briefcases opened / 4,530 briefcases total = 3.090% chance to pull LeBron Triple Logoman (for LSC)
This one requires one key assumption to calculate: numbered parallels for base cards can ONLY be found in hobby/FOTL boxes of Optic. There is no evidence to contradict this and therefore this assumption is considered valid. Each format contains eight numbered parallels, however, FOTL contains an additional purple stars parallel. First, we need to determine the number of FOTL boxes produced.
Each box guarantees one purple stars parallel for the base checklist of 200 veterans and 100 rookies, or 300 total cards. All of the purple stars are numbered /15.
15 purple stars * 300 card checklist = 4,500 FOTL boxes
Next, we need to find the total number of boxes produced for both formats. This is achieved by calculating how many total numbered parallels are available, then dividing by the eight that are inserted into each box.
300 card checklist * 299 aqua = 89,700 aqua parallels
* 199 orange = 59,700 orange parallels
* 179 blue = 53,700 blue parallels
* 125 silver circles = 37,500 silver circles parallels
* 99 red = 29,700 red parallels
* 79 pink velocity = 23,700 pink velocity parallels
* 50 purple = 15,000 purple parallels
* 35 lime green = 10,500 lime green parallels
* 25 black pandora = 7,500 black pandora parallels
* 15 ice = 4,500 ice parallels
* 10 gold = 3,000 gold parallels
* 5 green = 1,500 green parallels
* 1 gold vinyl = 300 gold vinyl parallels
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336,300 numbered parallels
This number ONLY includes the 300 card base checklist and does not account for numbered insert parallels. While insert parallels are separate for FOTL boxes from the guaranteed one purple star among the 300 card base set checklist, I’m unable to determine which, if any, inserts are exclusive to non-hobby or non-FOTL formats. By adding the inserts to the numbered parallels pool, it would decrease odds of pulling any specific card. Therefore, to give the full benefit of the doubt and give Layton the best odds of pulling the card as possible, we will NOT include insert parallels.
336,300 numbered parallels / 8 numbered per box = 42,037.5 boxes
=> We will round this number to 42,038 full boxes
=> We must subtract the pre-calculated FOTL boxes to avoid counting them twice
42,038 Optic boxes - 4,500 FOTL boxes = 37,538 total boxes
As of writing, I estimate Layton has opened 20 cases of 2021 Optic among their breaks, including mixers, PYTs, and RTs, based on the search results of their YouTube page. This does NOT include any FOTL boxes or any personals. Given the popularity of the product and it’s price point, let’s allocate an additional five cases for a grand total of 25 cases opened to this point.
25 cases opened * 12 boxes per case = 300 boxes opened
300 boxes opened * 8 parallels per box = 2,400 parallels pulled
Now that we know how many parallels Layton has pulled from the product, we can determine the odds of them pulling ANY gold vinyl from the 300 card base checklist. For this, we calculate the odds that any given parallel pulled being a gold vinyl.
300 gold vinyls / 336,300 total numbered parallels = 0.0892% chance of pulling gold vinyl
0.0892% chance * 2,400 opportunities = 2.14 gold vinyls pulled, on average
=> we will round down to 2 gold vinyls pulled, on average
These odds suggest Layton should pull two gold vinyls if they opened this volume of product, putting the odds at roughly 1 in 12 cases to pull a gold vinyl. Finally, we determine the odds of pulling any specific player. In this case, the Trevor Lawrence card.
2 gold vinyls / 300 subject checklist = 1 in 150 to get Trevor Lawrence
1 in 150 odds = 0.667% chance to pull Trevor Lawrence gold vinyl (for LSC)
Lastly, we examine the odds of pulling one of 2021/22 Prizm Basketball’s best cards. This one is the most difficult to calculate and requires the most assumptions given the limited information on how many numbered parallels are in a hobby box. The base set is slightly larger for this product at 330 subjects. Once again, for the benefit of the doubt, we will exclude insert parallels to give us the best odds possible. Also, our FOTL exclusive parallels are once again separate from the 22 prizms per hobby box, on average. From my own observation and experience, these boxes contain one non-numbered parallel per pack. With 12 packs in a box, this leaves us with 10 numbered parallels in each hobby box.
Here are the total number of parallels in the hobby product. To the best of my knowledge, these are the parallels exclusive to hobby and do not include retail, choice, or hybrid parallels:
330 subjects * 299 red = 98,670 parallels
* 199 blue = 65,670 parallels
* 149 purple ice = 49,170 parallels
* 125 blue ice = 41,250 parallels
* 99 purple = 32,670 parallels
* 75 red diamond = 24,750 parallels
* 60 orange wave = 19,800 parallels
* 49 orange = 16,170 parallels
* 25 mojo = 8,250 parallels
* 10 gold = 3,300 parallels
* 5 black/gold = 1,650 parallels
* 1 black = 330 parallels
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361,680 parallels
Determining the number of FOTL boxes is a fairly straightforward calculation. Again, we will omit any potential insert parallels to give Layton the best odds possible.
330 subjects * 30 blue shimmer = 9,900 parallels
* 10 gold shimmer = 3,300 parallels
* 5 green shimmer = 1,650 parallels
* 1 black shimmer = 330 parallels
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15,180 parallels
15,180 FOTL parallels / 2 parallels per box = 7,590 FOTL boxes
361,680 regular parallels / 10 parallels per box = 36,168 total boxes
Again, to avoid double counting FOTL boxes, we subtract them from the gross total:
36,168 boxes - 7,590 FOTL boxes = 28,578 total boxes
Given the product has a similar price point and popularity as 2021 Optic NFL, we can estimate Layton has opened the same amount of 2021/22 Prizm NBA to this point. Searches for breaks on their YouTube channel also yielded similar results across all formats (e.g. RTs, PYTs, Half Cases, etc.) as the Optic search. Therefore, we estimate that Layton has opened 25 full cases of Prizm basketball.
25 full cases * 12 boxes per case = 300 boxes
300 boxes * 10 numbered parallels = 3,000 total numbered parallels
We repeat the same process as finding the pull rates of a gold vinyl, this time figuring out how often we can expect to pull a black, and thus how many black parallels we’d expect Layton to pull if opening this amount of product.
330 black 1/1s / 361,680 parallels = 0.0912% chance of pulling a black
0.0912% * 3,000 opportunities = 2.737 blacks pulled, on average
=> we will round this up to 3 black 1/1s pulled
Finally, we again figure out the odds of a specific player:
3 blacks pulled / 330 black 1/1s = 1 in 110 chance to get Cade Cunningham
1 in 110 chance = 0.909% chance to pull Cade Cunningham (for LSC)
The approximate odds for each individual pull were as follows:
>LeBron Triple Logoman = 3.090% (3,090 in 100,000 odds)
>Trevor Lawrence Gold Vinyl = 0.667% (667 in 100,000 odds)
>Cade Cunningham Black = 0.909% (909 in 100,000 odds)
Although the odds of pulling any of the aforementioned cards aren’t absurd, they remain highly likely. However, the odds become significantly longer if calculating the chance of all three events happening together. We are able to make this calculation as these events aren’t mutually exclusive, nor do their outcomes directly impact the odds of one another. For congruent calculations, we take percentages and convert them to fractions.
3,090 * 667 * 909 = 1,873,476,270
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100,000 * 100,000 * 100,000 = 1,000,000,000,000,000
This gives us our final calculation…
1,873,476,270 / 1,000,000,000,000,000 = 0.00000187347627
0.000187347627% chance to pull all three cards
1 in 555,554.56 odds
The volume of product opened significantly improved the odds from 1 in several billion to a little over 1 in 550,000. Regardless, these odds indicate a highly improbable event. Not to mention, these calculations did NOT include the parallels of insert cards in two of the three products, likely making the true odds even greater. Also, this does not include cards from sets with insertion ratios that we are unable to calculate with acceptable accuracy without making too many assumptions.
Although the exact amount of product opened by Backyard Breaks is unknown, even if they had opened double the amount of Layton Sports Cards, the odds would still be north of 1 in 250,000 to pull all three cards.