Emails, Logan Spence, campaign manager, Dan Patrick campaign, June 12-June 26, 2014
12:28 p.m.
June 12, 2014
Subject: Re: Inquiry for a fact check
We looked at the graduation rates for the following big urban school districts:
Houston ISD
Dallas ISD
Ft. Worth ISD
North Forest ISD
They each had high school campuses with graduation rates in the 50s, with Houston ISD having one in the 40s:
Houston ISD:
Dallas ISD:
Ft. Worth ISD:
North Forest ISD:
You can find more examples at the TEA website.
Logan Spence
Campaign Manager
Dan Patrick for Lt. Gov.
3 p.m.
June 25, 2014
Our numbers are based on the raw data you can find on the TEA website.
You can get very detailed information at the campus level by going through this TEA webpage:
http://ritter.tea.state.tx.us/acctres/completion/script/2012/campus.html
The problem with using the "dropout" numbers that are reported by TEA is that there are several exclusions that are unmonitored by the TEA. The exclusion of students who claim to be "returning to their home country" is often the largest component in the campus numbers.
Using this detailed information, you will see how we got our numbers and what they are based upon.
The TEA calculation of "dropouts" is a concern to many groups including "Children At Risk". I encourage you to reach out to Caroline Neary ...
From: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)
Sent: Thursday, June 26, 2014 10:27 AM
To: Logan Spence
Subject: Following up on dropout rates
HISD just responded to the methodology you shared regarding one of the Houston high schools you highlighted (see below).
I would guess a similar this analysis/critique could be applied to the identically-constructed reports posted by TEA on the other high schools you listed.
Follow-up questions: Why did the senator rely on this graduation-rate/dropout approach? Also, presuming he favors this methodology over the main one used by the state and federal agencies, why is it the best way to get to an accurate dropout rate?
Feel free to directly tackle any of the weaknesses declared by the Houston district as well.
Thanks.
g.
Sent: Thursday, June 26, 2014 10:19 AM
To: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)
Subject: RE: Inquiry for a fact check in Austin
Selby,
Long way to a short answer – No, Lee’s 2012 dropout rate is not between 40-50 percent. HISD reports a graduation rate of 80%.
First, the calculation to say that Lee’s graduation rate is 45% (272/608) does NOT take into consideration the 178 students who left and have documented enrollment in other Texas public schools and the 101 students who joined Lee during the 4 years of the cohort. So it is inaccurate.
Secondly, if you remove the 178 from the cohort (who enrolled in other Texas public schools) and add the 101 (who joined during the cohort years), our my calculation (if you don’t account for other leavers) gets a graduation rate of 51% (272/531), and conversely, a dropout rate of 49%. This too is fallacious, especially since 35 students remained for a 5th year of enrollment.
Thirdly, the 186 other leavers should indeed be removed from the cohort since these are students with documents/affidavits in their files supporting that they: enrolled in schools in other states, began home schooling, enrolled in Texas private schools, graduated outside of Texas, or returned to their home country, all of which are state recognized leaver codes and not considered dropouts. When you remove these students and 5 students with coding errors that could not be tracked, the graduation rate becomes 80% (272/340).
Lastly, if you were to inappropriately count the 69 students who went back to their home country as dropouts and keep them in the cohort, this would make the graduation rate 67% (272/409). School districts cannot be held responsible for students whose parents (or them if they are of legal age) choose to return to their home country.
We are held accountable for the 80% for 2012. This is without exclusions.
Let me know if this helps.
Thank you,
Sheleah D. Reed
Press Secretary
HOUSTON INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT
2:01 p.m.
June 26, 2014
Dan doesn't use the state definition of "dropout" because it doesn't accurately reflect the significant number of students who are leaving our schools before graduating. The fact that we cannot keep so many students in our public schools must be addressed, not ignored.
This is why Dan pushed to reform high school graduation plans last session and passed House Bill 5. Giving all students the opportunity to succeed and pursue their passion is how we improve our schools, encourage our students and ultimately grow our economy.