LO 7.1.1.E

Learning Objective: Explain Bayes’ Rule with the help of an example.

Review:

• Bayes’ Rule.

        Given two events E (presence of red spots) and H (measles has occurred), the Bays’ rule states that the probability that measles has occurred  given the presence of red spots is

        where

P(E|H) is the probability of noticing red spots, given that measles has occurred

P(H) is the probability that measles has occurred

P(E) is the probability of observing red spots