Free Agency/Trades:

QB:

- Nick Foles: Miami Dolphins - I understand that the whole world thinks Foles is going to the Jaguars and when I started this that’s where I expected to send him too. Then I looked into their cap situation and while they could make Foles work, doing so would cause them to have to gut the bones of the roster over the next couple of seasons (I go into greater depth below, in the Bortles section). After really looking it over, I thought the only sensible thing for the Jags to do is to go after a rookie really high in the draft. It’s the only way to keep their team together as it’s currently constructed, and has the added benefit of allowing more guys to sign if it works out - the old QB-on-a-rookie-contract bump. That’s the sensible move, but we all know NFL FOs don’t always act sensibly (see Denver’s trade for Flacco). Which brings us to Big Dick Nick. Here’s the thing, I see you out there trashing BDN. I see you calling him a backup who got hot, Keenum 2.0, all that shit. You guys are giving waaaaaaay too much import to his lost Jeff Fisher season and a few rusty games to start this year and not nearly enough to the fucking statue they built him outside The Linc. That’s who he is, the guy with the statue. The guy who marched the Eagles down the field against the NFL’s #1 defense on the road in the cold for the game-winning TD. The guy who was on his way to doing the same in the loudest stadium in the league until Jeffery let that ball slip through his fingers. He’s a playoff superstar and he’s getting better. That’s the part people aren’t wrapping their heads around. He’s ten times the leader he used to be. He sloughs off mistakes. He stands tall in the pocket. He’s the best QB in the league against the blitz, consistently. I mean, that’s huge! That’s next-level, balls-of-boulders stuff. One-year-wonders like Keenum, Schaub, Derek Carr (I said it), those guys don’t lead the league in anything, let alone a savvy, big-dick category like best against the blitz. Are you telling me you can’t win with that guy? Really? Well, Brian Flores disagrees. Or at least I expect him to. He was there, at the center of the BDN storm. He knows what the man can do, he knows what kind of leader he is. I know we keep hearing the Dolphins are tanking for next year’s draft and I don’t buy it for a couple of reasons. 1) They’re just gonna tell everyone their plans? Riiiight. That sounds like a Belichickian thing to do, doesn’t it? That’s where Flores learned, under Belichick, and you know those nutty Pats can just be so forthcoming. Uh-huh. 2) What if Fromm and Tua go back to school. It happens. Andrew Luck went back to school. Are they already so certain about Herbert they’re comfortable with tanking a whole season? Yeah, I don’t think so. What if someone tanks worse? Like most of the world’s runaway rumors these days, I think it was a hot take based on a truth, because finally someone’s in charge of the Dolphins who recognizes there are no quick fixes. Flores said it was one of the reasons he took the job, because he and Chris Grier were on the same page that it was gonna take time. But the thing about that... you take value when it comes to you. And this offseason Foles is gonna be a bargain (in fact they may be bidding against themselves) and Flores is gonna know it. They’re not gonna rush the process, but they’re not turning away from a large-phallused Super Bowl MVP either.
- Blake Bortles: Jacksonville Jaguars - Though not technically player movement, while we’re on the subject of the Jags I just figured I’d throw this in cause I think Bortles staying in Jacksonville is something of a hot take. The problem Jax has is the more you look at the cap ramifications, the more you realize the only logical thing to do is keep Bortles and draft his replacement. Cutting the cig-ripper only nets $4.5M in savings, not enough for an upgrade, and signing a veteran QB like Bridgewater or Tannehill is essentially a lateral move for a lot more money, and would probably mean unwanted cuts in 2020 and cap difficulties further down the line, which the Jags really can't afford. They could designate him for June 1st and gain more cap space ($9M) but even though they’d be able to sign guys and he’d be able to sign with other teams starting in March, the Jags would still be on the hook for Bortles’s $21M cap hit until June. Meaning, of course, that they couldn’t afford Foles without breaking their team apart. Of course there’s the psychological effect of hanging on the Bortles to consider, it could create a bad vibe around the team. It’s a difficult situation but I think the FO has to bite the bullet. Who cares how it looks? From everything I’ve read, Bortles is a pretty well liked guy by the fans and his teammates. Bring him back as a back-up if necessary. Cutting him means cutting more players and making it even worse. I say roll for a year with Blake and a rookie... hopefully the rookie can take over right away and you don’t have to use Blake as a bridge, because as the Jags proved in 2017, they’re fully capable of winning in spite of Blake. If he starts the year and the Jags keep winning, who knows what kind of stupid decisions the FO might make? That’s why I think they have to draft their QB this year too. They can’t risk waiting until next year only for Jax to go 10-6/11-5, make the playoffs, do some damage. You’ll be right back where you were last year. At least if there’s a highly-drafted rookie waiting in the wings you almost have to move on. Caveat: There is a way the Jags could get out from under Bortles contract, they could do something like the Texans did with Osweiler: offer him plus a draft pick to a team with a ton of cap space. With Osweiler it required the Texans to give up a second round pick to the Browns, I don’t think it would cost quite that much for Bortles, his contract isn’t as bad so maybe a third... but, the NFL didn’t like the optics of that Osweiler trade and I’ve heard, at least, that they’ve discouraged teams from doing it again. We’ll know if that’s true soon, because if the Jags can trade away say Osweiler and a 3rd round pick to the Jets to get out from under his contract, I think they try. Then Foles absolutely comes into play.
- Teddy Bridgewater: Washington Redskins - I mean, the guy has the word ‘bridge’ in his name, it feels like there’s no escaping it until he plays so well as a bridge someone gives him a legit shot. I don’t see that happening this offseason. But it’s better than settling for what will be clear backup opportunities in Oakland or Cincy or wherever. At least in Washington he’ll be the #1 QB for about two months, then he’ll be the one in the way of the rookie for another four or so. Of course really the Redskins shouldn’t be in for Bridgewater at all. They should take the brunt of Alex Smith’s cap hit this year, draft a rookie (or don’t and roll with Colt McCoy and Josh Johnson for a painful year) and come out on the other side in a couple of years with a healthy cap. They won’t do that. Bruce Allen legitimately believes they’re one or two guys away from the playoffs, so he’ll stretch Smith’s contract out over like five years to lessen the immediate cap hit, he’ll sign a guy he’ll draft another. He’ll go for it, because you know, everyone knows the Redskins are this close. Then he’ll convince Snyder, when it doesn’t work, how they got fucked by bad luck and the whole process will start over again.
- Joe Flacco: Denver Broncos - So this move was made while I was writing this (grrrr) and it caused a major re-adjust, as I didn’t have him winding up in Denver. And in fact, I still don’t understand it from Denver’s perspective. I think it means they’re not in love with any QBs in this draft and that’s fine, I’m not sure there are any worth loving. Sure they could still draft Lock at ten I suppose (though I have him going before that) and use Flacco as a backup but that’s one expensive backup, at least for the first year. I guess they could restructure his contract but I can’t see why Flacco would agree to that just to lock himself into being a backup for a longer period of time. No, I think Elway’s bringing him in to be the starter and kicking the future QB can down the road. And while like I said, I don’t mind not loving any of the QBs in this draft, why not just stick with Keenum? The only answer must be that Elway thinks Flacco is appreciably better than Keenum. I think he’s better, but he has to be better enough for the money too and I don’t see that. Personally I would have signed Big Dick Nick and handed the job over but I understand there’s a lot of hesitation about that too.
- Tyrod Taylor: Oakland Raiders - I really think Taylor would benefit from spending a year or two as a backup to a savvy vet like Brady or Brees but instead he gets Carr. He doesn’t trust what he sees and his athleticism has allowed him to win at an average rate despite it. If he learned anticipation, and to trust that his receivers will be where they’re supposed to be, I think he could be another one of those late career improvers like Rich Gannon and Josh McCown. Alas, there’s no savvy vet to learn from in Oakland but at least there’s a legitimate chance at playing time. He can be Gruden’s savvy vet and we all know how Gruden loves his savvy vets and if Carr falters, cue Tyrod Taylor’s music.
- Ryan Tannehill: Cincinnati Bengals - Incoming coach Zac Taylor was Tannehill’s QB coach (and OC for one year) in Miami from 2012-2015 so at the very least there’s a comfort level between the two guys, and they seemed to have a pretty good relationship from everything I’ve found. So this is a good fit. I think basically it’s going to come down to Dalton and Tannehill duking it out for the job though I think at first there will be a lot of hemming and hawing about how Dalton’s job isn’t in danger and how they saw an opportunity to bring Tannehill in that they just couldn’t pass up, that sort of thing. But in the end I think it’ll be a bona fide QB competition, Dalton hasn’t been good enough and Tannehill had some good years with Taylor. Aside from walking into a starting job, it’s a best-case scenario for Tannehill who could have been relegated to true backup at the beginning of the year. If he goes to Cincy like this, I think a lot of people would consider him the favorite for the job.
- C.J. Beathard: Green Bay Packers (Trade) - I think we can safely say the Deshone Kizer experiment didn’t work out, and with as often as Rodgers gets injured nowadays, going into the season without a backup they can trust seems short-sighted. We’ve all heard over and over again how The Flower coached under both Shanahan and McVay so you have to think a QB that knows at least some of the system he’ll be installing would be appealing. Beathard seems like the odd man out to me in SF after the rise of Nick Mullens and while yes, they’d probably get more in a trade for Mullens, how much more? An extra round or two maybe? I think they’ll feel a lot better about keeping Mullens for dirt cheap and moving Beathard. We also know that Der Geschäftsführer will trade for a backup QB, as he did last year with Kizer. Whether the compensation for Beathard is a 5th or 6th round pick or an end of the roster player (though they better make sure he’s actually an end of the roster player, unlike Randall last year) I don’t know, it’ll be something like that. But this is only a four-round mock and that player is probably too far down the depth chart to warrant mentioning here.
- Case Keenum: Carolina Panthers - Well it looks like he won’t be a Bronco anymore but I’m pretty sure they won’t be able to trade him and will end up cutting him instead, which will allow Keenum to choose his next team. The Panthers will be an appealing option due to Cam’s injury and I expect they’ll have some interest in him too as a short-term option.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick: Cleveland Browns - Because what the hell. Reunite him with Monken, he’d be one of the better back-ups in the league and I imagine him and Baker getting along pretty well.





RB:

- Le’Veon Bell: Tampa Bay - They can create plenty of cap space by trading Brate and cutting DeSean Jackson, Vincent Curry, William Gholston & Mitch Unrein all of which I expect them to at least try and do. That would give them an estimated $45M to play around with according to Spotrac, which is plenty to both re-sign Donavan Smith (which I fully expect them to do) and add Bell. It’s true Jameis’s contract is about to really kick in (if they decide to keep him past this year) but when it’s all said and done that won’t matter cause I think Bell either takes a one-year prove-it contract (his worst nightmare) or settles for less than he wants, there’s just not a lot of teams that will be willing to give a five-year deal to a guy who turns 27 soon, sat out an entire year and was prone to rust anyway, and with the plight of Todd Gurley right now, why would any team pay that much for a RB anyway these days? A lot is going against him. That said he broke into the league with Arians, the Bucs are trying for a quick turnaround (it’s not like Arians has a lot of time, and Licht needs to start winning pronto) and he’ll give a lot of juice to the franchise. He should also make life a lot easier for Jameis, who’s had to survive with basically zero threat of a running game. I know Le’Veon says he wants to play for Miami but you have to assume Flores is gonna operate like the Pats do, and the Pats didn’t generally give big contracts to aging running backs. They tended to bargain hunt at the position. I can’t imagine they’d have much interest. He can visit Miami plenty from Tampa, they’re pretty close. And oh those great Florida taxes.
- Mark Ingram: New Orleans Saints - I think he tests the market and finds it lacking, the way most 29 year old running backs do. Oh, I think he might get an offer for more money from the Jets and potentially the Raiders, but he’s been in New Orleans his whole career, he’s active in the community, him and Kamara are boys. Plus there’s the unfinished business aspect of things, so I think he takes a little less to come back to the Big Easy on a one or two year deal.
- Tevin Coleman: Kansas City Chiefs - Maybe this is more of a want than something I think is gonna happen, but I think Coleman could really explode in Kansas City’s offense. I’ve always liked him more than Atlanta’s coaches seemed to, I don’t know, maybe he’s a bad teammate or lazy practicer or something. But plug him into the Chiefs turbo-powered offense and watch him explode. I mean, they made a star out of Damien Williams, and Damien Williams is a nice player and all that but he’s no Kareem Hunt, he’s not even a Tevin Coleman. I think they’ll probably split time for awhile before Coleman takes over the lion’s share of the work. Unless he’s actually a shitty teammate and bad practicer, in which case forget everything I said. But you’d think that would be the kind of thing they’d know before signing him. And I don’t think he’d be too pricey either, in the same way I don’t think any RB will be too pricey except maybe Bell.
- Jordan Howard: Jacksonville Jaguars (Trade) - It’s pretty clear Howard’s not a fit in Chicago’s offense. They can bang their head on the wall about it and try and make it work for another year, or they can get something in return for him while he still holds some value. He’s a perfect fit, of course, in Jacksonville’s offense, except there’s the small problem of Leonard Fournette being in his way. Well while that’s bad for Howard, it’s fine for the Jags who see a chance to add a legitimate backup for Fournette who doesn’t cost much, can be cut essentially without penalty, and who is almost certainly better than anyone they’d find in the draft at this point (4th round, pick 110). And if you don’t think the Jags need a better backup you’re wrong. In fact I wouldn’t be so certain Howard isn’t the starter outright at some point this season. It certainly gives them insurance against the headache that can be Fournette. I’m sure Bears fans won’t think this is enough but it’s about what you’ll get, and lest you think you can’t go into the season with only Cohen and bargain FA signing Bilal Powell (see below), I agree, I fully expect you to add a back who fits better in Nagy’s offense in the draft. And if you think you can’t go into the draft with only Cohen and bargain FA signing Bilal Powell, I disagree. Don’t forget the Chiefs went into the draft with Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West when they drafted Kareem Hunt. RB is a hole that can definitely be filled in the draft.
- Adrian Peterson: Washington Redskins - The Redskins can’t know how long it’s gonna take Guice to recover from his torn ACL. If he was Adrian Peterson, he could recover enough in a year to lead the league in rushing. But ADP’s a freak, there’s not a lot of people who can do what he did, and Guice’s recovery has already been delayed once by an infection. I don’t think they can come into the season with him alone as their #1 back. So good thing they’ve got this pretty neat fallback plan already in the building. From all reports, Peterson and Guice (and Chris Thompson) really hit it off, so if they are gonna bring in another guy to take the lion’s share of the carries while Guice gets up to speed, it might as well be someone Guice already knows and respects.
- Jay Ajayi: Oakland Raiders - He’s tough, he’s a vet, he’s coming off an injury, aren’t those basically the main prerequisites for a Gruden RB? OK, maybe not the injury part so much, but the rest fits like a glove, just like it did when Gruden went out and signed Doug Martin. I think  Ajayi is basically Gruden’s fourth choice. I think he’ll try to get Lynch to come back, and when that doesn’t work I think he’ll cast his net wider towards Peterson and Ajayi and maybe Hyde too. Ajayi will be holding out for a starting gig, and when that doesn’t materialize will jump at the chance at a time-share with what he will no doubt feel is an inferior player. Of course that doesn’t take into account any backs the Raiders might take in the draft but beggars can’t be choosers, this is a decent spot for Ajayi to wind up.
- C.J. Anderson: New York Jets - Man, what a difference four games makes. It’s hard to believe Anderson was bouncing around as roster fodder for the last few weeks of the regular season. What was everyone missing? It’s clear he still has plenty in the tank. What he does - and what Adam Gase will love about him - is he gets what’s blocked. He’s not a make-you-miss guy, he’s not a juker, not a blow-by. He’s a technician. He understands where he’s supposed to go and who he’s supposed to follow. He falls forward. I thought he was always underrated and unloved in Denver, it’s nice to see him getting love now, it’s nice that he’ll get one more last little payday out of the NFL. I have the Jets cutting Crowell and not re-signing Bilal Powell, so this backfield belongs to CJ and Elijah McGuire, unless of course they draft someone (spoilers). It’s one of the more coveted offseason spots, I expect.
- Carlos Hyde: New England Patriots - 2019’s version of Jeremy Hill. Or Donald Brown. Or any of the other hundreds of Pats value signings... oh, a former stud who’s been struggling of late? Let’s pick him up for a song and see if he’s still got anything left. Thankfully for the rest of us these rarely work out, but they’ve worked out before at WR (Moss). Let’s hope they never stumble across a RB like that. And for those who think the Pats have too many RBs to make this move, have you been paying attention? They add running backs like crazy. Last year they drafted a RB in the first round when most people didn’t think they needed to draft one at all. And it was a good thing they did, they ended up playing Patterson at RB they got so thin with injuries. Hyde should at least help in that respect.
- Latavius Murray: Indianapolis Colts - He wants to go somewhere as a starter but I just don’t see it happening, however if he’s smart, or if his agent his smart, he should be reaching out to the Colts himself. They need a guy like him, and I really think he could go there, behind that excellent offensive line, and set the league on fire. Listen to any Colts fan and they’re not exactly enamored with Mack, they think he got the bare minimum their excellent offensive line blocked for him and Hines is a change-of-pace guy and Willis is alright but he fumbles too much! (My brother-in-law is a Colts fan, he’s a fucking broken record. Yeah Todd, I feel fucking terrible for you, try one playoff victory in 53+ years. Dick). Anyway Murray’s a guy who get’s what’s blocked, and sometimes he gets more than what’s blocked, he’s still got that long speed from his younger days, I think he could quickly take over for Mack. He could be one of those cheap signings of the season.
- Corey Grant: Jacksonville Jaguars - Since the Jaguars are keeping Bortles at QB it allows them to re-sign Grant who surely would have been gone had they cut Bortles to go after a FA QB. Small victories. I mean, they took a major fucking loss last year when they extended Bortles, but at least there’s this little tiny victory this year.
- Bilal Powell: Chicago Bears - He ticks a lot of boxes for the Bears: he’s cheap (they don’t have a lot of cap space), he’s versatile and catches passes, and he’s coming off an injury. Wait, I didn’t do that right. I meant to say but he’s coming off an injury, which is not a box they want ticked. But it’s why he’s cheap. The Bears offense really clicks with a back who can both take the ball from the QB and catch passes. Think Kareem Hunt, that’s the kind of back the Bears need. Powell is a lesser approximation but he can do it. He’ll be helpful.
- Doug Martin: Oakland Raiders - I thought he played pretty well this past season, all things considered, I think a 2-headed backfield with he and Ajayi (and maybe a third head with a rookie) is workable, and I’m pretty sure I read where Martin grew up as a Raiders fan. Didn’t I read that somewhere? I know he’s from the area anyway, even if they move away from it. Also, he’s a vet and he’s tough and he won’t break the bank, which is why Gruden signed him in the first place.
- Rod Smith: Dallas Cowboys - Without him they’re Zeke and a bunch of nobodies, plus his brother Jaylon plays there, plus it’s just easier to sort out Zeke’s backup by signing Zeke’s backup rather than creating a new hole they have to fill. It won’t cost them too much. Maybe Smith tests the market to see if there’s any starting jobs out there but there won’t be.
- Spencer Ware: Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons have to be growing more and more concerned with DaVonta Freeman’s ability to hold up long-term in the NFL. He’s a little guy and he throws himself around so violently, are the consequences of that beginning to show? I don’t think they’re ready to move on from him, not by any means, but maybe if they can alleviate some of his hits by taking the goal-line carries away, for instance, with a bigger back. Ware fits what they want cause he’s a bigger back (230 pounds) who can also be used in the passing game. The Falcons traditionally use all of their RBs in the passing game (we’ll see if Koetter keeps it up), so I don’t think they’ll be signing any one-trick ponies. Ito Smith proved to be a decent goal-line runner but he’s a little guy too. It’s time to bring a little girth into the backfield.
- Isaiah Crowell: Minnesota Vikings - It’s pretty clear the Vikings need a decent backup for Cook for as much time as he misses, but I doubt they’ll be able to afford to keep Murray (or rather, I doubt they’ll want to allocate their resources towards keeping Murray). Even Crowell might be a touch expensive in which case they’re likely to use the draft to find Cook’s backup. But the downside of using the draft is twofold: if you wait too long, you might draft someone who turns out to be totally useless; if you take one too early, not only are you using a pick that could probably be better used somewhere else, but you’re saying to Cook ‘you might not be our guy’. The best option is simply to sign a quality backup in FA and Crowell qualifies. The man had a 200+ yard game last year! Against a good defense! As a spot plug and play, you can’t find much better. The only concern is if he doesn’t come cheap. There’s a chance the Jets don’t opt to release him, but from all reports I’ve read he wasn’t much help in the locker room of a losing team, and most fans want to let him go. As strictly a backup in a winning Minnesota locker room, I can’t imagine he’d create too many waves. If he does, cut his ass and move on.
- T.J. Yeldon: Carolina Panthers - McCaffrey needs a backup who doesn’t totally derail their offense when he comes in and Yeldon’s essentially a bargain-basement McCaffrey anyway, so it works out.
- Mike Davis: Detroit Lions - A lot of Lions fans think we need to grab a 1b back to Kerryon’s 1a, either in the draft or FA. I’m not of that belief, but that’s admittedly a matter of preference. I think most running backs need touches to truly become their best; Gurley, Zeke, any Pittsburgh RB, Barkley... the more they get it, the better the groove they can hit. Look at the way Gurley pressed in the NFCCG, and I thought one of Arizona’s biggest problems was they never gave DJ a chance to get into a rhythm, something he really needed coming back from injury. For some guys it’s not always better to take carries away from them (there are some obvious exceptions to that rule, with Kamara being the biggest). My ideal scenario sees the #1 back getting at least 80% of the carries. If he gets hurt or suspended, ideally the 20% guy takes over the 80% duties without missing a beat (think DeAngelo Williams/James Connor, Damien Williams in KC, CJ Anderson with the Rams) or if he misses a beat, it’s not much of one. I’ve always thought Davis was underrated and misused in Seattle, I think he’s fully capable of pulling a Damien Williams if Kerryon goes down, and I think we likely have an advantage signing him with Darrell Bevell as our new OC who no doubt has a relationship with him. And for those of you who insist Kerryon can’t possibly last the season unscathed, I direct your attention to his career in the SEC in which he won offensive player of the year his senior year and played in every game, even when he was banged up. In fact he played in 36 games during his 3-year career, I don’t know if that’s every game but it’s damn close to it. He’s far more equipped to hold up to the rigors of an NFL season than say, Christian McCaffrey, who everyone said couldn’t run inside and wouldn’t hold up. Sixteen games later, lo and behold, McCaffrey finished 3rd in the league in touches for a RB. Kerryon can hold up just fine and if he doesn’t, Davis can do the job.
- Frank Gore: Miami Dolphins - I think he’s at the point of his career where it’s not exactly Dolphins or bust (there are some longevity records I think he wants to reach), but I think he’d rather play in Miami than anywhere else and I think he’ll give them a discount to make it happen. And let’s be honest, he was really good last year. It’s too bad he got hurt but at least it wasn’t anything that should affect his career going forward (sprained foot, no surgery). Given all of that, and given Flores is coming over from the Pats where vets always have a role and a RBBC is often a thing - not always, but often - I think they bring him back.
- Chris Ivory: Pittsburgh Steelers - This is basically 2019’s version of signing Stevan Ridley, except Ivory is 10 times the player Ridley is and if Conner or Samuels were to go down, I think he could plug in and have a DeAngelo Williams style renaissance. Everyone seems to behind that line.
- Javorius “Buck” Allen: Green Bay Packers - Green Bay really only needs a RB to cover for any injuries they might incur and Buck Allen is a cheap option who can also catch passes, seems as good as any. He won’t cost much.
- Theo Riddick: Buffalo Bills - At this point Riddick’s really more of a slot receiver than RB as he offers very little in the running game. But he’s a fantastic option in the passing game, especially as a security blanket for a young QB and could maybe carve out a career as a poor man’s James White. If he offered any threat at all taking a direct handoff he be a really interesting piece for an offense (and he’d make more money), but he doesn’t.
- Marshawn Lynch: RETIRES - Gruden tries to talk him out of it, but now that his city is suing the Raiders and playing somewhere other than Oakland, I can’t see Lynch joining them again. Even if they manage to stick around in Oakland, I’m not sure Lynch plays. Bad optics.
- Jonathan Stewart: RETIRES - The Giants have already announced they won’t be picking up his option and I don’t think anyone will rush to sign him.



WR:

- Antonio Brown: San Francisco (Trade) - The Steelers have really botched this whole situation. I mean, it’s Brown’s fault of course, but the moment it started to get out of hand they should have reached out to him and said ‘look, we’ll trade you IF you pretend like it’s all good.’ Rooney could have made noise about trying to work it out, how the Steelers are a family and families get in fights, then had GM Kevin Colbert working behind the scenes to hash out a deal. Because as of now, the way Pittsburgh handled it? They have zero leverage. The whole world knows AB wants to be traded, we all know the Steelers have agreed to trade him, and on top of that, he’s an almost-31-year-old receiver who relies on both route-running and explosiveness to get open, it’s not the sort of combo that typically ages well. I know AB is a special cat but it’s still gonna be hard for GMs to shell out a mint on a guy who’s gonna have to buck a few trends to stay elite over the duration of his contract. On top of that he’s a locker room cancer - or maybe not cancer but like, flu. He’s locker room flu. That’s generally not a combination that fetches anything in a trade, but then you remember this is the game’s best receiver over the past half-decade or so and you’d give up something pretty decent for that guy and trust in your locker room culture to keep him happy. I’m thinking a 3rd-rounder sounds about right at the moment. It could change quickly which is why I have to finish this damn thing and get it out (this is my 3rd re-write of this paragraph), but that sounds about right for right now. His fit in San Francisco should be pretty obvious, cause his fit everywhere is pretty obvious. He’s the guy they brought in to dominate.
- Golden Tate: New England Patriots - He’s going to kill it there. Absolutely kill it. And because he didn’t light it up for Philly, they’re gonna get him at a discount, god dammit. I miss him already.
- Chris Hogan: Tennessee Titans - He’s just a piece, Titans fans. A small part in fixing the issue that is your receiver corps(e). He’s a pro, though, what you thought you might be getting when you signed Eric Decker (but without the injuries). He’s not a blazer but he gets open deep, he’s not a slot guy but he can get open quick. He’s not the missing piece but he’s one of them, and I’m sure he has a relationship with a lot of the guys on your staff. Along with Detroit, Houston and likely Miami, this is a hot spot for ex-Pats.
- Devante Parker: Baltimore Ravens - I know the Dolphins picked up Parker’s fifth year option but it says here they pull it before the 2019 season, the way the Lions did Eric Ebron’s. He’s just not worth $9M, nowhere near it. And while Parker never played with Lamar Jackson at Louisville, they have to have some sort of relationship, right? Maybe Jackson’s the guy who can get Parker playing up to his talent level. He shows tantalizing glimpses. The Ravens need to upgrade at WR but they’re terrible at drafting WRs and most of their best receivers, especially of late, have come via FA (Steve Smith, John Brown, Crabtree, Maclin, etc..). Granted, it seems clear they’re going to be a run-based team going forward which likely won’t appeal to many WRs, but Baltimore will likely be the one team offering Parker a contract where he can look at the depth chart and think to himself, I’m going to be #1. That will matter. And whatever relationship he has with Jackson can’t hurt either.
- Cole Beasley: Arizona Cardinals - They say a slot WR is a young QB’s best friend, right? Or maybe that’s a TE, or a pass-catching running back. Shit, I’m trying for the security blanket angle here but I’ve totally fucked up the intro and you know what? I’m just leaving it. I’m done. The point is, young QBs need guys they can trust, enter Beasley who wants to be paid more than the Cowboys are willing to pay him (and get the ball more than they’re willing to throw it to him). We know Kingsbury’s offenses at Texas Tech traditionally had great success with receivers like Beasley (Welker, Amendola, etc...) and I think that, along with the money on offer, will appeal to the dirty little slot. I know Fitzgerald’s mostly a big slot receiver nowadays but Kliff is a master of working with what he’s got (his best trait, IMO) and he can scheme traditional slot receivers open from the outside or run them both from the middle or run them both out from four and five receiver sets. There’s not a lot of traditional round-peg-round-hole receivers in Kingsbury’s offense, that’s what I’m getting at, and young QBs need receivers like Beasley. With him, Fitzgerald, Kirk and DJ, Rosen’s actually got some bona fide weapons to throw to.
- DeSean Jackson: Dallas Cowboys - I think the Bucs cut him in an effort to keep McCoy, re-sign Donavan Smith and add Le’Veon to their roster. Frankly, with the emergence of Godwin, they don’t need Jackson anymore. Sure, they’ll miss his long speed but they can replace that with someone cheaper (JJ Nelson maybe?). The question is, what does Jackson want from his next team? The Bucs had a prolific offense but didn’t throw it to him enough, I guess? Does he want to get paid? Cause he was already getting paid pretty well and I doubt he makes anything more than what Tampa paid him though he might come close. Maybe he just wants to win? Hopefully it’s the latter cause I don’t think he’s gonna find what he’s hoping to find in FA. The teams that could pay him the most either already have a guy like Jackson (Hilton, Calloway) or they’re not any good, the teams that are good don’t really have a gaping hole in their starting receiver corps, and the few who do are so up against the cap they couldn’t afford to pay him any money. This feels like a good compromise. Jerry will love the idea of bringing in a guy who had so many good years in Philly and Washington, plus the Cowboys could use a guy who takes the top off a defense (both Gallup and Cooper can get deep, but that’s more a product of the way teams play the Cowboys - to stop Zeke - than their sheer deep speed). Austin’s more of a running back/gadget-player than a receiver. I imagine this will be a one or at most two-year-deal and Jackson will have to settle for being 2b (Cooper - 1, Gallup - 2a) and not getting many balls, but the Cowboys should at the very least be a winning team.
- Devin Funchess: Buffalo Bills - Is it lazy to send Funchess to the Bills? After all, they’re run by ex-Panthers, they keep signing/trading for ex-Panthers (Benjamin, Lotulelei, Derek Anderson), and Funchess in particular is an exact fit for what they need (a receiver who is currently alive). They have the cap space to offer him more than anyone else, I think his comfort level plus the money sends him towards Orchard Park.
- Tyrell Williams: Indianapolis Colts - A lotta former Chargers heading to Indy which makes sense, Reich and other staff members overlapped in San Diego and Williams overlapped right along with them. He makes a lot of sense in Indianapolis, they’ve got Hilton and like 48 tight ends but they need more receivers, and they can afford to pay him which is good, since he’s definitely getting paid.
- Nelson Agholor: Green Bay Packers (Trade) - First of all, I don’t see any way the Eagles keep him. I know that might be a little controversial but look at it this way: if they do, he’ll cost upwards of $9M this year (5th year option); the Eagles don’t generally commit a lot of cap space to receivers; with the success of Goedert almost everyone expects them to play out of 12 personnel more frequently; they can re-sign Jordan Matthews for far less and get roughly the same production out of the slot (plus he’s buddies with Carson and Carson needs as many buddies as he can get this year). I don’t know that Green Bay will restructure him, maybe they will, maybe they won’t, but it’ll be nice to have an experienced guy take over in the slot for Cobb. I have it costing the Packers the pick they got for Clinton-Dix (4,119) so in essence it was a straight-up trade, one player for the other, and still a win for the Packers.
- John Brown: Washington Redskins - If you’re John Brown hitting FA after what was a great start to 2018 but a frustrating finish, I think you’re looking for a couple of things. First, a path to playing time and targets. Of course every receiver wants those things but John Brown has earned them more than most free agents and would likely be entering FA off a great statistical season if it hadn’t been for extenuating circumstances (namely, Baltimore quit throwing the ball). In Washington, at least before the draft, I think you’d have to list him above both Doctson and Jamison Crowder on the depth chart (Despite being of a similar size, Crowder plays mostly from the slot while Brown plays on the outside). He’d have to be pleased by that. He’d also surely be worried about the guy throwing him the ball after the turn 2018 took for him, but anyone’s better than what they Ravens had with Jackson (at least from a WR’s perspective) and Bridgewater/rookie can get him the ball well enough. So then there’s the money, and the money is probably right. The Redskins aren’t flush and the Alex Smith situation is a doozy, but they’ve got enough to afford Brown.
- Cordarrelle Patterson: New England Patriots - Parlays his renaissance season into a payday with his current team, who we all know loves a man who can do it all. As I have them losing Hogan, Dillard & Gronk, they’ll probably be bringing in (or back) a few pass-catchers.
- Adam Humphries: New York Jets - I’m tempted to call Humphries bargain-Beasley but I actually think he gets paid more than Beasley thanks to being four years younger (also three inches taller, but that seems less important). This is pretty simple, the Jets need a slot WR, they’ve got tons of cap space, the Bucs probably can’t afford to bring him back if they make the moves I have them making, he’ll be Darnold’s best friend.
- Tavon Austin: Dallas Cowboys - Yes, they brought in DeSean, but this is one of those deals where Jerry brings Tavon back early (word is they really like him, and he does bring something to the offense), then finds out after the fact that DeSean has become available and brings him in too. It has the risk of marginalizing Austin but I doubt it, he’s more of a gadgety guy who was already kind of marginalized anyway.
- Jermaine Kearse: Houston Texans - With Hopkins, Coutee and Fuller, the Texans have a legit starting receiver corps, but it’s one that’s oft-injured. Last year they were left scrambling to fill it at the trade deadline and did pretty well to bring in Demaryius, but we all know what happened to him. Obviously they won’t be paying him $14M in 2019, not when they can get out of his contract for free (to be fair, they wouldn’t have paid him even if he didn’t get hurt, I think) (Update: and now it’s already happened). Kearse isn’t the flashy signing Thomas was but he might be a better player, he’s never really had a chance to be part of a dynamic offense like this one, and as a #4 guy who won’t cost too much he makes a lot of sense.
- Danny Amendola: Detroit Lions (trade) - It doesn’t make a lot of sense for Miami to keep him, not if they’re ‘building towards the future’, and not when they can get out of his $6M contract for free. The only question is whether they cut him outright or try and trade him. If they decide on the latter, they might hold out until after the draft and even into training camp hoping some injuries elsewhere might create some desperation. I don’t think Detroit will offer the Dolphins anything from this year’s draft but I also don’t think they’re a team to panic and overpay if an injury happens, so let’s split the difference and say they offer a 2020 6/7th rounder after the draft but before the offseason begins (which is likely the most they’ll get for a 33 year old receiver with a year left on an expensive contract), the Dolphins accept, and the Lions take on the last year of his contract. Miami’s stockpiling 2020 picks, right? That’s what we keep hearing anyway. There’s the chance, of course, that Amendola’s relationship with Flores keeps him around for a year mentoring the younger guys. I don’t think Miami’s gonna want a lot of expensive vets, but the ones they do keep will be on very short-term contract, and Amendola’s one-year deal fits the bill. But he’s also in the way of someone else’s development, and that might be more important.
- J.J. Nelson: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - They lose the expensive Jackson as a deep threat and add the far cheaper Nelson who no doubt had a relationship with the entire Tampa staff thanks to their shared time in Arizona.
- Breshad Perriman: Cleveland Browns - He finally seemed to find a home in Cleveland after a bunch of miserable years in Baltimore (and a brief stint in Washington), a fact that will no doubt play into Perriman’s decision to come back. Plus Cleveland’s the hot place with the hot QB. I expect whoever they show interest in will return that interest. Perriman’s lucky he has a leg up on everyone.
- Donte Moncrief: Oakland Raiders - It’s easy to give him a pass for his meh season in Jacksonville (and actually he put up decent numbers all things considered) but I never understood why he wasn’t more prolific playing with Andrew Luck and next to T.Y. Hilton. He did have a couple of pretty good years that made you think he was on the up but then he never really improved the way we hoped he would. But he’s still young, he’s been injured enough that maybe you can blame it for his struggles and he’s just... well he’s still a tantalizing guy. The sort of guy who sometimes puts it all together in the back half of their career, like a Brandon Lloyd maybe, or a Ted Ginn, or an Irving Fryar, or even a Doug Baldwin who really took 4 years to acclimate to the league. Is Moncrief one of those? I have no idea, but here the Raiders pay him to find out.
- Kevin White: Indianapolis Colts - Kevin White plays hard, let’s get that out of the way upfront. Every time I watched him this year he was flying around and yelling and going all out. Have the injuries sapped him of some of the athleticism that made him a top 10 pick? Probably. But sometimes these things are funny. Sometimes it takes a couple of years of not re-injuring yourself to get back to yourself. That - and the joie de vivre with which he plays the game - are going to get him another shot, and here’s hoping he takes it. He’s an easy guy to root for. With the money Indy has, he’s certainly worth a flyer.
- Cody Latimer: Minnesota Vikings - He spent a good chunk of the year injured but flashed a couple of times for the Giants, I don’t think you’re getting anything more than a #3 guy who can play #2 in a pinch, but that’s all the Vikings need him for. Most importantly from Minny’s perspective, he’ll come cheap.
- Randall Cobb: Buffalo Bills - I personally don’t think he’s any more than end of the roster fodder now but there will no doubt be a few GMs who think he can recapture a little bit of his old form and who, at the very least, should offer an experienced, veteran presence to the locker room (which Buffalo could probably use, especially in the WR room). And the Bills have had some success with GB reclamation projects, or at least they did with Micah Hyde anyway. Maybe lightning strikes twice.
- Pierre Garcon: Carolina Panthers - I have the Panthers declining the option on Torrey Smith’s contract and losing Funchess to the Bills which means their WR room has gotten much younger and smaller. I expect they’ll add to it in the draft at some point (maybe? Spoilers), but adding Garcon on a short-term deal is probably a good idea, he’s a balls-to-the-wall worker who put a lot of effort into carving out a long NFL career, he’ll be a great influence on the young guys.
- Mike Wallace: Seattle Seahawks - It’s not out of the ordinary for Seattle to bring in a guy to see what he’s got left. Brandon Marshall, Eddie Lacy, Janikowski, Braylon Edwards, Leon Washington, Kevin Williams, Fred Jackson, you get it. Wallace had an injury-plagued season with the Eagles but he’s still got that deep speed, and guys like Ginn (and more so, Justin Gatlin in the track world) are showing straight-line speed doesn’t necessarily diminish with age. It will, however, diminish due to injury so Seattle will have to see what he’s still got left. Tyler Lockett made it through a whole season last year but it’s the first time he’s done that and Baldwin was in-and-out of the lineup. I’m sure the Seahawks want a tall, thicc stud (Carroll’s white whale) but FA’s not the place to find those, it’s the place to find your depth. Wallace offers some assurances against injury and for cheap.
- Chris Conley: Los Angeles Chargers - Once Tyrell Williams leaves via agency LA will have good-great players atop their depth chart (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Travis Benjamin) but very little behind them. Conley’s the kind of low-cost option who could pan out big the way former Chief Albert Wilson did for the Dolphins (though I admit he wasn’t so low cost... Conley will be). It’s odd that guys could leave the Chiefs and improve, but it’s hard to find targets behind Tyreek and Kelce let alone Watkins. Missing so much time injured doesn’t help. These low-roster guys tend to bounce around within the division too, opposing coaches have had lots of chances to see them.
- Phillip Dorsett: Philadelphia Eagles - Strictly a cheap, depth signing at outside WR for Philly, but I wanted to list him to make clear I think the Pats are letting him go. The Eagles are likely to lose Tate and I have them losing Agholor too so they need to add numbers to the corps and Dorsett should help outside.
- Torrey Smith: Chicago Bears - A depth signing mostly, with Super Bowl experience. The Bears are losing Bellamy and White and as they like to spread it out, I figure they’ll add someone else.
- Jordan Matthews: Philadelphia Eagles - He’s cheap, he can play the slot when they’re in 11 personnel (I expect them to be in 12 a lot more with the success of Goedert) and he’s one of Carson’s buddies, and Carson needs as many buddies as possible on the roster this season.

TE:

- Cameron Brate: Buffalo Bills (Trade) - For compensation I have Buffalo sending the fourth round pick they received from Kansas City (#134) to Tampa, I figure that seems fair. Bucs fans will think it’s not enough, Bills fans will think it’s too much which makes it just about perfect (and don’t forget Tampa fans, the Bills are taking $7M off your cap this year, that alone makes it worth it even if you don’t think the comp is enough). The Bills have already moved on from Clay and have a gaping hole at the position.
- Maxx Williams: Dallas Cowboys - A low-ish cost option for the Cowboys to add, I think we’ve seen the last days of Geoff Swaim, and while I really liked what I saw from Blake Jarwin (and Dalton Schultz, to a lesser extent), there’s no doubt Dallas will be adding another body to the mix. Williams is a low risk, high reward guy, if he’s fully recovered from his injuries he’s got plenty of talent, maybe he’ll get a chance to show it in big D.
- Jeff Heuerman: Denver Broncos - Rumor is they love the guy. I know he’s not the best player but he’s decent actually, better than you think he is, and he’s a team leader, beloved by the rest of the guys and he won’t break the bank, why not bring him back? They need to add another body to the mix too, for sure, but that can come later in FA, or in the draft.
- C.J. Uzomah: Cincinnati Bengals - I think the Bengals are brining back both Uzomah and Eifert (on an incentive-laden contract) and letting Kroft go, but that’s just me. Well, me and some other Bengals fans, a lot actually, enough to convince me it’s the way I should do it too.
- Tyler Eifert: Cincinnati Bengals - See above. And hey, at least this time his injury didn’t have anything to do with his back.
- Tyler Kroft: Atlanta Falcons - I could easily see the Falcons picking up a low-cost option as Austin Hooper’s backup. They’ll want to allocate their money elsewhere (cough, Grady Jarrett) and there’s plenty of cheap tight ends this year. I don’t know how good they are, but at least Kroft has flashed and you can convince yourself he’s only been held back by injuries.
- Jared Cook: Oakland Raiders - Why wouldn’t they bring him back? They’re flush, he’s coming off his best year ever and he’s old, this is a match made in heaven. I do think he’ll test his market - he’ll always test his market - and I suppose there’s a chance someone throws a lot of money at him after that year he had last year. But we’ve all been on the Jared Cook roller coaster before, including the NFL FOs, I’m not sure his offers will be as good as he hopes.
- Vernon Davis: New England Patriots - So I expect Gronk to retire and Allen to be cut, and I expect them to draft a TE during the draft too. But that won’t stop Bill from trying to extract value out of one of the most athletic tight ends ever to play the game. And he’s still got the jets too, as evidenced by a couple of longer TDs this year. He won’t replace Gronk, not straight up, but whatever he’s got left you can be sure Bill will find it. And I’m pretty sure the Redskins will have to cut him with the whole Alex Smith mess.
- Jesse James: Minnesota Vikings - It’s a tough year to be a free agent tight end. You may take a look around at the landscape and think to yourself, ‘there’s a place I can start’, but then what if you sign with them and they bring in another tight end during a draft that’s loaded at the position? Because frankly, I don’t think James is the type of guy who stops you from drafting a tight end if you’re not set at the position. So I think he takes a deeper look around, sees Minny with only Kyle Rudolph in his way (I think Rudolph restructures to help the Vikings clear up some space, and I think they reward him by bringing in another tight end) and says to himself, ‘there’s my route to the most playing time’.
- Dwayne Allen: New Orleans Saints - The Saints don’t need much, a tweak here and a tweak there, a couple of depth signings, maybe re-up a couple of guys... and a tight end. Now the Saints haven’t splurged at TE since they drafted Jimmy Graham almost ten years ago and even that was in the third round, so I’m not sure you can call it a splurge. Generally they find a cheap FA like Ben Watson, Eric Johnson or Josh Hill (a UDFA no less) or make a small trade - or what they thought was a small trade, though the Akiem Hicks for Michael Hoomanawanui looks pretty rotten in retrospect. So Allen fits right in with what they like to do at the position. Of course that’s provided he becomes available, it seems counter-intuitive for the Pats to cut him the year Gronk retires (see below), but the Pats are all about value and Allen is set to make $7.6M next year, and while he’s an excellent blocker, that’s a lot of money for an excellent blocker. It’s the final year of his contract and New England can get out of it with no dead cap and it says here they do.
- Rob Gronkowski: RETIRES - His WWE takeover begins.

OT:

- Donovan Smith: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - One of their big expenditures, to bring one of their own back. Everything I’ve read from Bucs fans says Licht has some sort of boner for Smith, or maybe he’s just his pet project, or maybe he reached on him when no one else would - I don’t know, I can’t really sort it, but they seem pretty certain Licht will bring him back. He’s a Licht favorite, a 2nd round pick who has become an average LT, very durable, and entering what should be the prime of his career. He needs a coach to light a fire in him, and to continue to develop and there’s rumors he played through injury last year, but only the Bucs know for certain. All in all, for a 2nd rounder, he wasn’t one of Licht’s worst picks.
- Daryl Williams: Arizona Cardinals - It looks like Williams wants to get paid and despite missing this season, I think he will. It’s not often an all-pro offensive tackle hits the market - even one who pretty much strictly plays on the right side - and I think the eventual contract he signs will reflect that. That doesn’t necessarily narrow it to the teams with the most cap space, but it gives them a leg up, let’s say. On top of that Williams played his college ball at Oklahoma where they ran a strikingly similar system to what Kliff will be bringing with him to the desert. I’d be very surprised if Williams hit the market and the Cardinals weren’t one of the major players for him.
- Ricky Wagner: New York Giants (Trade) - So here’s the bones of the Lions/Giants trade: the Giants give up Janoris Jenkins plus their 4th round comp pick (4,138 roughly) for Ricky Wagner and the Lions 5th round pick (5,148 roughly). Essentially it’s a Wagner for Jenkins trade straight up, the 10-spot pick-swap is a nod to the Lions taking on $3M/year more in salary, nothing more, and the Giants are so flush with late-4th, early-5th round picks it will hardly matter to them. So this trade works out pretty well for both teams, I think. We already know the Giants had floated Jenkins as a trade option last year even though nothing came of it, but now his cap hit is far more palatable which makes him more tradeable. He’s still got 2 years left on his contract at $14.75M/year so he doesn’t come cheap, but the Lions can make it work by removing Wagner from their cap (and they can get out of Jenkins’s contract easier than they could Wagner’s if he doesn’t perform). The Giants have been looking for a right tackle seemingly forever, and while Wagner has 3 years left on his contract (at $11.9M/year), he’s a year younger than Jenkins, plays a position that ages better than CB, and is only two years removed from being the most highly-sought-after RT in free agency. His time in Detroit has been hampered by nagging injuries but in Baltimore he was a beast, a true hog molly and we know how Gettleman likes those guys. The only reason the Lions are willing to move him is their faith in Tyrell Crosby (combined of course with their difference in contract length). The fact is, Giants fans, every offensive lineman who leaves Detroit improves, from Warford to Tomlinson to Reiff. We hope it was because our old offensive line coach Ron Prince was just terrible, but who knows? Anyway you should basically disregard Wagner’s first season with us when Prince was still around.
- Jared Veldheer: Atlanta Falcons - He won’t break the bank allowing Atlanta to throw most of their resources elsewhere. Basically you’re giving Veldheer a small-ish contract, throwing him into the RT mix with Schraeder and I guess Sambrailo and may the best man win. They’ve got to save most of their money for Grady Jarrett.
- Trent Brown: Houston Texans - The Pats have an in-house replacement in Wynn and a history of not paying guys their big payday, especially at positions the rest of the league highly values like OT and DE. Maybe it’s cause they keep finding replacements for the guys they lose in cheap places (see Brown, Trent), I don’t know, but they generally let their guys test the market, set their value and if it’s over New England’s valuation, off you go. And Brown is gonna get paid a lot more than New England’s valuation. He’s gonna get paid like a star. And the way he’s played over the last half of the season and into the playoffs, he deserves it. Surely I don’t have to explain why Houston’s going after offensive linemen, right?
- Ja’Wuan James: Los Angeles Chargers - It’s difficult to say how this one’s going to play out but I’m leaning towards James testing the market. I’m absolutely certain he wants to test the market and if Flores is anything like Belichick he’ll let him, but I suppose there’s a chance they’ll franchise tag him. But I don’t see them committing that kind of money to James on a one year deal, might as well pull off the band-aid and start in on his replacement if you’re not gonna pay him long term. The holes along the Chargers offensive line really started to show as the season went along, culminating in that embarrassment in New England. Okung’s a decent enough starter on the line, but Sam Tevi’s a backup at best. James will really help them.
- Ty Nsekhe: Cleveland Browns - Ty Nsekhe is a legit good player who’s been on the strangest football odyssey of perhaps anyone in the league, which explains why even at 33 I think he’ll get a lot of interest - he hasn’t played a lot of minutes. But the minutes he has played have been invaluable to the Redskins given Trent Williams’s injury issues. I’m sure they’d love to keep him but this is probably his last/only chance to get paid, I can’t imagine him not testing the market, and I can’t imagine Washington franchising him when he’d be little more than a swing tackle for them. I expect he’ll get a pretty decent-sized 2-3 year contract from a team looking to win quickly. He’s not the long-term answer at LT but he can definitely be the answer this year and probably next too while Cleveland grooms one for the future. And while it will be more money than Nsekhe has ever seen in his life, it won’t be too much relative to what the other offensive tackles are being paid in FA, allowing Cleveland to focus much of their cap elsewhere (foreshadowing). He might have the biggest impact of all of them. A lot of us may not have heard of him, but I guarantee NFL FOs know who he is. And even though Greg Robinson filled in admirably for the Browns, Nsekhe is a far better player and probably won’t cost too much more. I know there’s some familiarity with Robinson but trust me, I’ve been on the Robinson roller-coaster and he’s not the long-term answer. He’s not even an answer this year.
- Donald Penn: Oakland Raiders - I’m listing this because I think a lot of people are assuming he’ll be cut and I have a different take. The Raiders have the cap room to afford him but they’ll save $5M letting him go. This is a tough call, clearly Penn’s not in their future plans but as a fairly affordable veteran backup for a year to two second-year tackles (Kolton Miller and Brandon Parker) he holds some value. It makes a lot of sense. Whether he wants to come back or not, who knows? I suppose he could just retire. But $7.6M is a lotta incentive to stick around.
- Cam Fleming: Green Bay Packers - A veteran swing tackle who could step in for Bulaga and not miss a beat (he might even be better). I doubt he’ll cost much cause he didn’t cost much last year ($2.5M) and the Packers really have some dogshit along their line behind their starters. It’s also a depth move that won’t stop them from drafting someone.
- Mike Remmers: Cincinnati Bengals - The Vikings can save ~$5M against their cap by cutting Remmers and since Brian O’Neill stepped in so smoothly for them at right tackle last year and since Remmers have proved, time and time again that he’s not a guard, I think the decision is an easy one for the Vikings. Or at least it should be. Remmers is strictly a tackle, and that’s where the Bengals are signing him to play.

OG/C:

- Matt Paradis: Denver Broncos - This isn’t the slam-dunk re-signing it appeared to be coming into the season. While Paradis has been nothing but fantastic during his time starting in Denver, his injury this year opened the door for Connor McGovern and the Broncos line hardly missed a beat. Makes it tempting to let Paradis test the FA waters and plug McGovern into his spot. The main reason I think they don’t is shifting McGovern over to center creates a hole at RG that will have to be filled either in FA or the draft, and when you have a solution for something it’s generally best not to make it a problem again, if it can fit in the budget. Paradis+McGovern at center and right guard > McGovern+?, that seems pretty obvious, despite the difference in cost.
- Andrus Peat: New York Jets - I know the Saints picked up his 5th year option but at $9.6M there’s no way they don’t pull it before he signs. He really struggled this year and the Saints need the cap relief, and they’ve got a couple of promising guys waiting in the wings (Cameron Tom, Will Clapp). Peat is a strong player when he’s healthy and he’s versatile, able to switch between tackle and guard, but the Saints can certainly live without him. He’ll definitely be one of the more sought after iOL in FA and when we hear his contract announced I expect there’ll be some opened eyes, but the Jets desperately need help along the interior of their line, they have to protect the franchise QB and they have the money to spend. It’s a worthwhile investment for them.
- Ramon Foster: Pittsburgh Steelers - It’s gonna cost them but I just don’t see any way the Steelers can let Foster go. Not only has he turned in his best years of late but he’s a locker room leader who everyone loves. They just lost Munchak, if they start losing some of the line talent their offense could fall apart.
- J.R. Sweezy: San Francisco 49ers - He was a bust when he left for Tampa but he’s been nothing but stellar in Seattle. I’m sure the Seahawks would like to bring him back but they won’t be franchising him (they almost never use the franchise tag, and if they do it will be on Frank Clark) so he’ll have a chance to test the market again and the Niners have the money to pay him enough to give Seattle pause. And Seattle has the depth now to handle allowing one of their two stellar guards to go (it says here they decide to re-sign Fluker), Jordan Simmons is an up-and-comer and Ifedi can move inside while Fant takes over at RT (he might be better anyway).
- Mitch Morse: New York Jets - I originally had this as an AFC east battle between Buffalo and the Jets but then Buffalo went out and nabbed former Jets center Spencer Long and took themselves out of the running. I don’t know, maybe they plan to play him at guard but he’s listed as a center everywhere. Interesting fact, center was a need for the Jets before Long left the building. I hope the Bills know what they’re doing. I digress. As I have Paradis being re-signed by Denver that makes Morse pretty much the best center on the market, and as long as his medical checks out I expect him to get a decent payday, and I think the Jets will like the idea of a vet center protecting their franchise.
- Quentin Spain: Baltimore Ravens - It doesn’t take a string theorist to figure out Baltimore’s plan for the immediate future, pound the rock. So, why not sign a guy who has experience in a pound the rock offense and blocked for a bruising running back and a mobile QB?
- Mike Iupati: Baltimore Ravens - As a cheap flyer, why not? With the offense they want to run if he can return to form (and he showed signs of it this year) this could be one of the signings of the season. If he doesn’t return to form (or more likely, gets hurt) so be it, release him. Low risk, high reward.
- James Carpenter: Tennessee Titans - I thought Carpenter, all things considered, was pretty damn good for the Jets. Not so much in 2018, but he was playing through a shoulder injury that eventually ended his season. That means he could come at a bargain this offseason. And despite the fact it seems like he’s been playing forever, he’s only 29 at the time of this writing. 29! I couldn’t believe it I thought he was like 36 or some shit. Tennessee needs some desperate help in the interior of their line and Carpenter’s a piece of the puzzle, maybe a starter maybe an excellent backup (depending on the draft), but he’ll knock you on your ass and I figure a team that runs Derrick Henry could use a guy like that.
- Ryan Groy: Los Angeles Rams - The Rams need to get younger along the interior of their line (and yes even at 29 by season’s-start Groy counts as getting younger) and Aaron Kromer coached him in Buffalo so it makes sense.
- Rodger Saffold: Los Angeles Rams
- D.J. Fluker: Seattle Seahawks 
- Billy Turner: Denver Broncos

Edge:

- Ziggy Ansah: Seattle Seahawks - When he’s healthy, Ziggy’s a stud. He’s great against the run, he’s great attacking the QB, he could have gone down as one of the all-timers if he just could have stayed healthy. Alas. He’s gonna get paid but I expect his contract will be full of incentives and clauses protecting the Seahawks in case he misses most of the season again. Basically, if he plays well he gets paid, if he doesn’t, he doesn’t (well he still gets paid, just not nearly as much). Think of Ziggy as the Michael Bennett to Frank Clark’s Cliff Avril (another former Lion). I don’t think signing Ansah precludes Seattle from going edge in the draft, but now they don’t have to. And if Ziggy can turn in the kind of season he’s capable of having he’ll have all of Seattle forgetting about Bennett. He’s that good.
- Anthony Barr: Tennessee Titans - It’s pretty clear the Vikings don’t want to bring him back or they would have already done it (and with the Cousins contract, they can’t really afford to anyway). Barr won’t be short on suitors so I don’t think it’s gonna come down to the money - I think everyone will be offering him a lot of money. So why the Titans? Well, but I also think Tennessee’s system is gonna be appealing. I’ve always thought Barr could be a real force in a defense that was predominantly a 3-4 and if I think it, surely he and his representation have thought it too. According to PFF (I know) his metrics as a pass-rusher are far better than in coverage or against the run. I don’t imagine it will be too hard a sell for the Titans to convince Barr he’d thrive in their system (plus, you get paid more as a 3-4 OLB).
- Jadeveon Clowney: Houston Texans - They tag him. I don’t know if he comes in as a OLB or DE for the Texans purposes but most fans seem to think he’s gonna cost around $15 million which the Texans can easily afford (they have a lot of cap space). I also think they need to go for it now, while Watson is cheap, and Clowney’s a guy they can use now then when they have to pay Watson, trade/let go to free up cap space. The only downside I see: Clowney might hold out. He knows he’s injury prone. The longer he has to wait for a long-term contract, the worse it is. Would he really want to play another year? If this turns into a stalemate, I could see the Texans working a sign-and-trade and they’d probably get a first-rounder. I’d say for now though they want to keep him. They can afford him, why not?
- Brandon Graham: Detroit Lions - He’s not gonna come cheap but the Lions have enough cap space to afford him and he still won’t cost as much as Ziggy cost us to play in like half a game in 2018. He’s a perfect fit in Patricia’s defense, he’s a leader, he’s won in the playoffs and while he turns 31 this offseason, he’s got less mileage on his tread because of all the rotation along the Philly d-line. I also think that because of that rotation he’s underrated league-wide, at least among fans (GMs might know better). His sack numbers have somehow stayed lower than his pressure numbers would indicate. For instance, this year he only had four sacks but he led the league in hurries, and all this despite not playing as many snaps as other d-linemen (he also led the league in 2016 despite only getting 5.5 sacks). Plus, he was born and raised in Detroit. It’s time for the man to come home.
- Dee Ford: Kansas City Chiefs - Yeah, I think they’re probably tagging him. They have to, right? He finally put it all together and dominated, playoff gaffe aside. The Chiefs don’t have a ton of cap space and it really limits what they can do overall, but they’re already pretty loaded and let’s be honest, as long as they have Mahomes they’ll be just fine. He’s a perfect fit for the weak-side edge in Spagnuolo’s scheme.
- Trey Flowers: Cleveland Browns - My inclination is to think there’s no way the Pats let him go, but then the Pats almost always let their guys go when they become FAs, especially at high-paying (or non-value) positions. Someone’s gonna throw a ton of money Flowers’s way, and unless he’s willing to take less to stay in New England, I think he goes. Cleveland is loaded and shockingly one of the ‘it’ FA destinations thanks to Baker and signing Flowers allows them to move on from Ogbah too (see below).
- DeMarcus Lawrence: Dallas Cowboys - This one seems obvious, doesn’t it? Their defense can’t afford to lose Lawrence, he’s a stud. No franchise tag this year, he’s earned his long-term deal.
- Robert Quinn: Philadelphia Eagles - So a lot of time’s gonna pass and Quinn’s gonna be sitting around thinking, what the shit? That’s my hunch anyway, his game really fell off despite the 6.5 sacks he managed in Miami last year. It was a game predicated on speed and he’s lost most of his. So then Philly swoops in and does what they do, sign the established vet for cheap (they have to, they’ve got very little cap space). The Eagles are definitely losing Graham off their defensive line and might lose Bennett and Jernigan too (though I have them both restructuring here), a vet like Quinn is a very Howie move, just like the Ngata signing last year or even the Bennett trade, but Quinn might have more left than the both of them, especially if he gets to rotate all year. It’s a good spot for him.
- Za’Darius Smith: Indianapolis Colts - I have the Ravens making the very difficult but cost-based decision to bring back Suggs and let Smith go and the Colts say thank you very much and they pounce. The playoff loss to the Chiefs was a microcosm of their issues - they can’t get any pressure on the QB. Well they’ve got a shitload of cap space and it says here they try and remedy that issue in the short-term (see below), the medium-term (with Smith) and the long-term (via the draft). This is the time - and the year - to get help at the edge.
- Justin Houston: Indianapolis Colts (Trade) - The Chiefs are on the verge of cutting Houston outright, though frankly I think they’ve leaked that info so the NFL world knows hey, this guy’s available. Send us your offers. Well the Colts have the cap space to afford him, the dire need, and if he doesn’t pan out they can move on pretty easily from him after this year. Plus Ballard should be plenty familiar with him. He’ll shift to a true end position in the Colts 4-3 and I think it might do him wonders, I always thought he was better suited for it. I have them giving up the 130th pick in the 4th round for Houston though I could see it being slightly lower than that, the Chiefs won’t have a lot of options if they want to clear out Houston’s cap space. They might just take a fifth rounder. But for our purposes we’ll call it a fourth, he’s a steal at that compensation under most circumstances.
- Dante Fowler: San Francisco 49ers - The Niners are on record as being in discussion with the Jags at the trade deadline over a Fowler trade but they didn’t want to part with any draft picks for what amounted to a 1/2 season rental. Well now they don’t have to, they can sign him outright (though he will cost quite a bit more) and re-unite him with one of his old defensive coaches, Robert Saleh. I don’t think signing Fowler precludes them from drafting an edge player - in fact it’s probably a good idea, given his inconsistencies - but it makes the hole in the Niners defensive eleven a little less obvious. I also think they’ll be able to sign Fowler for cheaper than a lot of the other edge FAs and so far at least they’ve been very hesitant to break the bank during the Shanny regime. They’ve got enough cap for a few upper-middle-class signings though. This is one of them.
- Terrell Suggs: Baltimore Ravens - I think in the end the Ravens and Suggs come to some sort of an agreement, whether he takes a little less to stay in Baltimore or whether the Ravens decide his leadership and the example he sets are valuable enough for one more year. Mostly, it’s hard for me to imagine him anywhere else. Maybe that’s short-sighted, but I see plenty of Ravens fans who feel the same way (almost always with the caveat ‘as long as his demands are reasonable’. It says here they are).
- Shaq Barrett: Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins have Charles Harris and no one else who can play OLB in the new scheme coming over with Flores (and Harris has been terrible). Barrett could be a steal. The drafting of Bradley Chubb stunted his development but before that he was showing real signs of becoming a player. I have a hunch Flores will get the best out of him and he’s a guy who’s still young and in 3-4 years when the Dolphins are ready to make a real push, he’ll still be a major asset to them. That’s the idea anyway.
- Everson Griffen: Buffalo Bills - If I was running the Vikings (and thank fuck I’m not I’d run them into the ground then salt the ground then pave it over and coat the pavement with that chemical shit that seeps into the ground for good measure) I’d do a mini-blowup. Not too drastic - an addition by subtraction thing - but I’d certainly be setting some underperforming big-name players free (Griffen, Remmers), I’d get Rudolph and others to restructure, I’d let most of my FAs walk (Richardson, Barr, Murray) and if I had decent depth at a position, I’d let the high-paid guys at the top take a walk too (Waynes). I don’t think they’ll do all of that, I think they keep Waynes and bring back Richardson, but the rest? Yeah. Griffen’s just too pricey to keep. And what better place to go than to the team whose d-coordinator, Leslie Frazier, was Griffen’s DC/HC his first 3 years in the league. There’s familiarity there, and from everything I read they have a good relationship. And the Bills can afford him too
- Vic Beasley: Houston Texans - I think Beasley’s gonna go a long time during the offseason without getting signed (which is why I think a return to Atlanta’s also a legit possibility). Maybe not all the way up to the draft but not far from it. There’s just not a lot of need in the league these days for a guy who’s pretty much purely a pass-rush specialist, not the way there used to be (Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila comes to mind). He can’t set the edge, he can’t drop into coverage - hell, he even leaves a lot to be desired as a pass-rusher. For the most part, it’s speed or nothing. Houston could use some depth on the edge behind Clowney and Mercilus, I like Ejiofor a lot actually but where he’s all moves and power he lacks the one thing Beasley has in spades: speed. As a moderately inexpensive roster add, I think it’s a decent fit.
- Markus Golden: Oakland Raiders - I think the only way the Cardinals bring him back is if they decide against picking Bosa, but they have to make that decision before the draft (meaning, I think, that we’ll know which way the Cards are leaning by what they do with Golden). Not that Golden and Bosa wouldn’t work on the same defense, they might be a terror, but Golden’s gonna cost a lot of money, and are you really gonna pay that to a guy who might be a backup? Surely not. Maybe they could beef Bosa, Golden or Jones up and turn them into a Watt style 3-4 end, but I feel like you’d be taking away some of what makes each one of them great. Or they could simply sign Golden, draft Quinnen Williams (or trade down) and be done with it. Obviously I don’t have them doing that. To me, Bosa’s too good to pass up. (I guess another option would be to franchise Golden and see how it works out... that way you’re not tied to him past this year if it doesn’t and the Cardinals have the cap space to afford it, but that’d be an awful lot of money for Golden, I doubt he’d come anywhere near it in FA). So back in 2016 when Raiders new DL coach Brentson Buckner held the same position with the Cardinals, Golden burst onto the scene with a 12.5 sack season. Things were on the up for him until he went down with a torn ACL at the beginning of the 2017 season. He played this year and didn’t produce as well but you know how it is coming off of these injuries.... some guys are themselves right away, some guys take a year. If Golden’s the latter, the Raiders are getting a steal.
- Frank Clark: Seattle Seahawks - A no-brainer. The only question is, franchise tag, or long-term contract?
- Emmanuel Ogbah: Los Angeles Rams (Trade) - The Rams are going to lose Fowler this offseason and need cheap edge options. Enter Ogbah, who’s only cheap cause he’s been up-and-down over the course of his first three years. His first year was great, his second stunted by injury then his third not as great. So who are you getting? The Rams will take the chance that they’re getting the guy who flashed in his rookie year. And if he doesn’t work out, you can easily get out from under his contract after the year. To get Ogbah they trade away Michael Brockers who I’m sure they’d rather keep but these are the realities of the salary cap. He’s set to count almost $11M against the cap this year but they can cut him outright and keep almost all of it (and they may) and they probably won’t be able to re-sign him next offseason anyway (I also really like John Franklin-Myers and think he can at least come close to approximating some of Brockers’s production). Cleveland can afford the cap hit, has a need along the interior of their line, and as they’ve signed Flowers in free agency can afford to move on from Ogbah, so the Rams take a chance. Ogbah’s as good as any edge they could sign for the savings and if he reaches his potential could be a steal. The compensation: straight up one-for-one trade, Brockers for Ogbah. The difference in cost is almost $9M.
- Dion Jordan: Jacksonville Jaguars - His history, both with drugs/drinking and injuries, makes this a far cheaper contract that Jordan’s talent would indicate. Basically it’s the kind of low-risk high-reward punt the Jags have to take this offseason as I have them in salary cap hell for at least another year. Jordan will come cheap and if he hits, it could be the signing of the offseason.
- Preston Smith: Oakland Raiders - I’m sure the Redskins would love to bring him back but as I’ve said more than once, the Alex Smith injury really fucked them and Bruce Allen’s gonna double-fuck them by trying to stay competitive so he can keep his job. This means spending too much on a stop-gap answer at QB (the way he did with Alex Smith when Cousins left) which will in turn mean cutting/not-re-signing some of their own guys. Smith falls in the latter category. So my thinking is once it’s clear Smith is hitting the open market John calls up his brother Jay and says what gives? Should we sign this guy? We got lots of cash and a big stinking hole at edge and Jay says yeah John-boy go for it, he’d probably be better in a 4-3 anyway. I mean, like, that’s exactly how I think it will go.
- Aaron Lynch: Carolina Panthers - You get a guy like Aaron Lynch for cheap because of his injury and substance-abuse history. That’s the good news. Well I guess it’s the good news and the bad news. Whatever. More good news: he’s a far better player than his contract would indicate, mostly because of the aforementioned injury and substance-abuse history. And one thing I’ve always wondered about the guy... how would he play in a 4-3? He’s 270 pounds and yet he’s always been cast as an outside linebacker. I think he could tear it up as a true end, and I think he could do it for a bargain. I really, really like Efe Obada and think he could be a star over time but the Panthers still need someone else especially now that Peppers has retired. There’s always the chance Lynch follows Fangio to Denver - he’s basically always following Fangio around - but the idea of bringing someone with Lynch’s history of substance abuse to Colorado... well, it just seems like a bad idea. If he can stay clean and injury-free (both of which he mostly did in Chicago) he could be a total steal. And Lynch comes cheap, Panthers fans, if he works out, great, if he doesn’t, no biggie.
- Clay Matthews III: Los Angeles Rams - Headed back to his hometown where he might actually play quite a bit, the Rams have plenty of needs at edge and maybe Matthews can recapture some of the glory from his younger days in Agoura Hills or at USC. Well, USC anyway.
- Shane Ray: Jacksonville Jaguars - I wrestled with this one. On the one hand I think Ray might get priced out of Jacksonville’s bracket. After all he’s an edge-rusher with upside, and edge-rushers with upside get pricey. On the other, Ray’s done absolutely nothing to deserve to be priced out of Jacksonville’s bracket, and at some point you have to wonder, does he really have any upside? I mean he was a healthy inactive in early December this year, right around the time Denver could have used a victory to make a run into the playoffs. And yet, no Shane Ray. It’s also a bad year to be an inconsistent edge-rusher in FA, it’s a loaded class. Anyone with a dire need or money or both are sure to look elsewhere. So yeah, I think Jax can probably squeeze him under the cap for cheap. It might be only a one-year prove-it deal, and maybe he can be rejuvenated playing for the Jags, who knows. It’s really the best either one of them can hope for.
- Derrick Morgan: Arizona Cardinals - I think Morgan’s gonna find his market to be as a depth player and that’s what I have the Cardinals signing him as. To spell Bosa and Chandler Jones. I doubt it happens at the outset of FA, one of those later signings once the flurry has died down a little.
- Vinny Curry: Chicago Bears - Bargain basement edge, short-term deal to replace Lynch (who himself worked out as a bargain-basement edge). He could be a value signing if his struggles last year were due to a lingering ankle issue. He’s big for an edge but so was Lynch, and he had his best year in Chip Kelly’s 3-4. I expect he won’t be the only bargain signing the Bears make, just the ‘biggest name’.
- Bruce Irvin: Atlanta Falcons - He really came on down the stretch, and his enthusiasm for playing in Atlanta is well-documented.


DT/DE:

- Grady Jarrett: Atlanta Falcons - This should come as no surprise. He’s awesome, the Falcons need him, they gotta pay him. It’s gonna restrict the rest of their FA movement but so be it. The only question is whether they work out a long-term deal or franchise him, but it doesn’t matter for my purposes.
- Ndamukong Suh: Los Angeles Rams - With the trade of Brockers to Cleveland (see below) the Rams open up enough cap space to bring Suh back for one more run at it (this could happen after the draft). I think LA would take Suh back over Joyner or Fowler among others, not because he’s necessarily better than those players (though I think he is), but because he’s less replaceable. Ogbah and Matthews can replicate Fowler’s production and John Johnson can outplay Joyner at the free spot while Marqui Christian/draft pick takes over at SS. But who’s taking over for Suh? Nobody, probably.
- Rodney Gunter: Arizona Cardinals - They’re switching defenses but it’s back to one Gunter’s familiar with, and I just can’t see them letting a talent like him leave the building. I think it’s more likely they bring him back than Golden despite the latter’s impact, he’s superfluous with Bosa (at least at the number he’s gonna cost). Gunter though should be a terror as a 3-4 end.
- Muhammad Wilkerson: Green Bay Packers - He was basically brought in on a one-year prove it deal last offseason before getting hurt in week 3 and missing the rest of the year. So why not just run it back? Pettine’s still there and he was one of the main reasons they brought Wilkerson in to begin with - the two had some good years together with the Jets. His injury happened early enough that he should be essentially fully recovered by the time camp starts, he didn’t cost too much and if I remember correctly, he wanted to be there. It makes a lot of sense to just try again.
- Sheldon Richardson: Minnesota Vikings - This is a tough call. I think Richardson would like to go back to the Vikings and I think Minnesota would love to have him, and while I think they’ll create some cap space by restructuring Rudolph and releasing Remmers and Griffen to re-sign Richardson this time - now that he’s rehabbed his image and played well for them - they’re going to have to pony up a multi-year commitment and a pretty damn decent rate to compete with the other offers he’ll get (unless of course they franchise him, which now that I think about it is entirely plausible). So let’s say that, let’s say they franchise him. It’ll only be a little bit more than what they paid for him in 2018. I don’t know how he’ll take it though, I’m sure he’s looking for one last big contract. I guess we’ll see.
- Michael Brockers: Cleveland Browns (Trade) - So Cleveland needs someone to help Ogunjobi along the interior of their line, Brockers fits the bill as well as any other FAs out there. He costs Ogbah but after signing Flowers, Ogbah’s not in the Browns’s plans anymore so shipping him for Brockers is a no-brainer. And if Brockers doesn’t work out (hard to imagine) his contract ends after the year anyway. If he does you can re-sign him.
- Earl Mitchell: Tennessee Titans - The bargains you typically find in FA are when guys get released for reasons other than performance. In this case Mitchell’s contract was to blame, that and the fact that the Niners were out of it early and wanted to see what they had in some young guys. Shanahan even admitted that Mitchell was playing great but that they reduced his playing time over the last month of the season to see what they had in D.J. Jones, a perfectly logical move for a team. Then they liked what they saw, certainly liked Jones’s contract vs. Mitchell’s, and let Mitchell go. He’s not gonna be a flashy signing but Tennessee needs someone to line up over the nose and soak up double-teams while Casey and the linebackers wreak havoc.
- Haloti Ngata: Miami Dolphins - I think Miami is finally, truly building towards the future, I think they’re willing to take a couple of bad years to get out of the 8-8 doldrums and as such, I think there’s only a certain kind of FA they’re going to sign: guys young enough to still be contributors 2-3 years down the line when they finally start to come out the other side of the rebuild, or veteran guys who can show the young guys how to be pros. For instance, though I think Jonathan Hankins is a better player than Ngata at this point in their careers and might contribute more to winning games in 2019, he won’t have the long-term effect on the team Miami wants. Ngata will, and even at his age, he’s still a borderline elite run-stuffer though admittedly, he can’t do much else. But he’ll be cheap and he’ll help the younger guys learn how to be pros.
- Allen Bailey: Buffalo Bills - The Bills have third-rounder Harrison Phillips and 2018 FA signing Star Lotulelei manning their middle of their defensive line and that’s pretty much it. Like, the only other interior defensive lineman they have on the roster at the time of this writing is Jordan Phillips and he’s a UFA who may or may not be back. The Bills need to shore up the numbers. Bailey could easily come in and start over Phillips (in fact I’d expect him to), he gets caught in the numbers crunch over in KC where they just can’t afford to keep everyone. But he’s been a steady force in their starting lineup for seven years. The Bills could use some of that stability.
- Malik Jackson: Los Angeles Chargers - Most everyone believes Jackson’s getting cut and I’m with them, the Jags really cat-fucked themselves with the Bortles contract but if they can wait it out one more year they won’t have to rip the band-aid off and ruin what they’ve built. Jackson however is a necessary sacrifice, and since the Chargers have jettisoned one of their own overpriced interior lineman and seen another retire (in my scenario anyway) finding at least one more in FA seems imperative and perhaps two, though that second one can come from the draft. Jackson had a good year in Jacksonville the one year he and Gus Bradley spent together, tallying 6.5 sacks from the interior, the second-best total of his career. It’s a system that suits him plus it brings Jackson back to a conference he’s already played in which happens a ton.
- Henry Anderson: New York Giants - What a find he was for the Jets last year, a revelation really, but now that they’re bringing in Gregg Williams it’d be a waste to keep him (plus he’s gonna demand a pretty damned decent-sized contract on the market). He’s just not a system fit. I want to keep him in an attacking 3-4 cause it plays to his pass-rushing strengths and because we know it works, so why don’t we send him from Todd Bowles’s system to one of his proteges across the... well, on the other side of... in the same building. I’ve got the Giants pressed hard against the cap for this season especially if they’re gonna hold onto Vernon but they’re keeping Eli, they may as well try and win with him.
- Margus Hunt: Indianapolis Colts - They turned him into a player there’s no way they let him go now, not when they can afford him so easily.
- Danny Shelton: Atlanta Falcons - From Atlanta’s perspective Shelton has a couple of things going for him, the most important of which is that he should be relatively cheap. He was in and out of the lineup for the Patriots last year, even spent quite a few games inactive, and only logged just north of 300 snaps. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for his talent. But he’s still only 4 years removed from being the 12th overall pick, he played well in the Super Bowl and he fills a pretty glaring need along the Atlanta defensive front, if he can play up to his potential. They’ve got to stop the run and the Falcons actually had one of their best defenses of the Quinn era when Jarrett had a big 1-tech next to him (Dontari Poe). The Falcons don’t have a ton of cap space after re-signing Jarrett, so Shelton’s the kind of punt they’re gonna have to take.
- Corey Liuget: New England Patriots - Even though the Chargers are losing basically the whole of their interior defensive line, they’re almost certain to cut Liuget too. Not only will it save them $8M against the cap but he’s been essentially useless to them for two years now as he bounced in and out of the lineup with injury until his season came to an end with a torn quad in 2018. He just can’t be relied upon and that $8M could be put to better use elsewhere. The Pats roster churn is difficult to predict but the one thing we know Bill’s always on the lookout for is value, which leads them to cheaply signing a lot of vets who’ve been good in the past but aren’t at their best currently whether it be through injury or a younger guy steals their playing time or what-have-you. Sometimes, it’s simply because they’ve gotten older and don’t have it anymore (Ochocinco, Reggie Wayne). But Bill signs them for cheap, works them out and keeps or discards them as necessary.  
- David Irving: Kansas City Chiefs - If there’s one team that’s willing to take a chance on a guy with so many off-the-field issues it’s the Chiefs, especially when those off-the-field issues make him affordable at a position of need. Because a healthy, focused, not-suspended David Irving is a stud, and makes this rich get richer stuff.

LB:

- Thomas Davis: Los Angeles Rams - We know Thomas Davis is playing another year and we know it won’t be with Carolina. The Rams have one more year of Goff on his rookie contract and another under his 5th year extension; Thomas Davis is 35 years old... so, two-year, $6M deal? $5M? One year? Whichever way you shake it, it’s doable under the Rams tight cap and Davis absolutely has something left in the tank. He’s not a glove-fit in LA but he’s ring-chasing and I’m sure Wade won’t turn down his linebacking smarts even if he has to shift to the interior.
- K.J. Wright: Cincinnati Bengals - I think the Seahawks learned a harsh lesson over the past couple of years... actually, their lesson could have been far harsher, it’s not often you blow everything up, start all over again, and still make the playoffs. But I digress. I don’t think they’ll be signing any more of their aging stars, no matter how important they once were to their success. Wright qualifies, and if you watched him play this season analytically and not through neon-green-colored-goggles (just think of the headaches), I think you can all see this coming, Seahawks fans. He’s not the player he once was. Sure, he’s a veteran presence and in fact I’m sure the Seahawks would love him back, but it’ll be at a price far lower than what he could make on the open market. The Bengals, conversely, need to throw as many bodies as possible at their linebacker corps, and if one of those is a savvy vet who can teach the other newcomers how to play, all the better.
- C.J. Mosley: Baltimore Ravens - All the fanbases out there clamoring for their team to sign Mosley are going to be disappointed, I think, but they also don’t realize how much Ravens fans think he’s been a liability in coverage. I’d say it’s pretty much a 50/50 split amongst the fanbase on whether they even want to bring him back, whereas it’s definitely 100% of opposing fanbases who want to see him let go. And he might be, the Ravens can be a bit cold-hearted with their own FAs, letting Jensen and Wagner and Osemele and Kruger, for example, go after good seasons (I’d say Osemele was the only one of those they missed). So I’m pretty sure the Ravens are going to try and bring Mosley back but will they franchise him? I don’t know. In the end I don’t think they need to, I think they hash out a deal last minute. The verbiage coming out of both camps just makes it seem that way.
- Deone Bucannon: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - It just makes too much sense, right? Tampa switching to a 3-4, bring in a guy who was successful under your current head coach and defensive coordinator to help implement it. And when Bucannon was good he was really good, Tampa’s getting a bargain with him coming off of a bad year.
- Kwon Alexander: San Francisco 49ers - As a WILL/MIKE paired with Fred Warner the Niners hit the jackpot here, I really think Alexander is underrated and only the fact that he’s coming off an injury makes him something of a bargain for SF (though they’re not gonna get him for pennies). From 2015-2017 Alexander created 10 turnovers which ranked behind only Shazier, Kuechly and Mosley for that time frame, and he averaged 8.3 tackles per game, which ranked him third behind only Kuechly and Bobby Wagner. He also had 20 passes defended, which ranked him behind only Shazier and Mosley and tied with Kuechly. Stats don’t tell the whole story (Ravens fans will tell you Mosley’s terrible in coverage) but they tell a good part of it, and the fact that he ranked so highly in every category before injuries ruined his 2018 makes him one of the best linebackers in the game, IMO, and one who never has to come off the field. I know they need a SAM as well and Elijah Lee actually showed some promise as a WILL late on but I don’t think you pass on a guy like Alexander for that. He’s that good, and because he plays a less-valued position, he won’t break the bank.
- Jordan Hicks: Pittsburgh Steelers - This could be the signing of the offseason. Hicks is just what the Steelers need, good in coverage, smart, fast and always prepared, he slithers away from blockers like he’s coated in grease to fill a lane. He makes a real impact on games... if he can stay healthy. There’s the catch, the rub, the almost perfect. Of course his health issues are the only reason he’s affordable enough for the Steelers to make a run at him, and if he can stay healthy in Pittsburgh, I think they will have finally found their Shazier replacement.
- Brandon Marshall: Arizona Cardinals - The Cardinals aren’t far removed from running a 3-4 defense so the shift over to Vance Joseph’s preferred system shouldn’t be difficult. But they are severely lacking in inside linebackers (their best one Josh Bynes turns 30 before the season and had never played as well as he did last year). Enter Marshall who has two years of experience running Joseph’s system and should come cheap as he’s coming off a couple of injury-plagued seasons. If he can come anywhere near the player he used to be he’ll be a steal for the Cardinals.
- Denzel Perryman: New Orleans Saints - Ooh if this works out and he can stay healthy this could be a real coup for the Saints. Normally they’d never be able to get a guy like Perryman for what they’ll be able to get him for this offseason but he’s cheap(er) due to all the injuries and the missed time. It’s always a risk signing injury prone players, but the Saints drafted Anzalone who was always injured at Florida and that’s worked out for them pretty well so far. This one will work out better... provided he gets away from LA. Obviously I have him leaving but it’s a tough call for the Chargers, linebacker’s one of their biggest holes and they’re just gonna let their best one go? Well it’s cause they relied so heavily on Perryman that their linebacker corps fell apart when he got injured. They may want to bring him back, but it’ll be at a cost that allows them to strengthen behind him. And it won’t be enough.
- Preston Brown: Cincinnati Bengals - I mean, there’s not a lot of NFL players out there who grew up Bengals fans. Brown’s a fine player at a position with very little depth, even if they’d like to upgrade on him, bringing him back is no problem. He might even give them a discount.

CB:

- Ronald Darby: Indianapolis Colts - As the best of the cash-flush teams the Colts get their pick of the CB litter and they opt for Darby who has it in him to be a superstar if he can just stay healthy. He’s also young which I think is important to Ballard, he wants a team to grow together and clearly believes in the process of becoming good, and Irsay has proved just patient enough to let him implement it. I think Quincy Wilson might make a quantum leap next year and of course Kenny Moore’s a badass but he’s still really more suited for the slot (and blitzing, geez, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a better blitzer) so that leaves another spot open on the outside and while Pierre Desir is something of a Hopkins-stopper he still has his struggles with consistency and Darby would be a major upgrade.
- Janoris Jenkins: Detroit Lions (Trade) - We know Jenkins was being shopped at the trade deadline last year. Nothing came of it but now his cap hit is a little more palatable (that is, if he sucks or acts up you can cut him and while the cap penalty isn’t nothing, it’s nowhere near as absurd as the $20M it would have been last year). And who’s to say he won’t restructure? I expect the Lions and Giants may have even had preliminary discussions about it last year during the negotiations for the Snacks Harrison trade. If Jenkins can reach his peak he and Slay might be one of the best CB duos in the league. This is a win now move but I think the Lions can win now (ever the optimist) and I don’t think Wagner’s part of our long-term plans, not with Crosby coming along. Jenkins is $3M/year more expensive than Wagner (hence the small swap of picks), a year older, and plays a position that doesn’t age as kindly at offensive tackle (a position the Giants have been trying to shore up for years), so for the Giants I think it’s something of a no-brainer. Plus, while Gettleman loves his hog mollies, he never seemed to value DBs. Carolina pretty much had a need at CB/S the whole time he was there and the only way he ever addressed was on the cheap with old dudes in their mid-thirties.
- Steven Nelson: Indianapolis Colts - Is this overkill for one position? Maybe, but the Colts can afford overkill. Signing Nelson to play alongside Darby allows Kenny Moore to shift into the slot and Quincy Wilson to develop at a more amenable pace. Nelson really came on last year but the Chiefs can’t afford to keep him, and Ballard would know him from his time there.
- Bashaud Breeland: Pittsburgh Steelers - They should have signed him last offseason but I guess everyone was scared off by his failed physical with the Panthers. It worked out for the Packers who I’m sure would love to bring him back but not at the contract he’s gonna want and not with so many young guys who need playing time. So I’m pretty sure Breeland will hit FA in search of the contract he missed out on last year and while I don’t think he’ll be one of the highest-paid guys I think he might come somewhere near that 3-year, $24M deal the Panthers originally inked him to. Maybe not quite that much now that he’s a year older and coming off that foot infection but close. The Steelers obvious need help at CB, Artie Burns isn’t panning out and while Haden has, he’s turning 30 this season. Time to bring in some help. I expect they’ll also draft a guy.
- Darqueze Dennard: Denver Broncos - Remember when the Bears signed Amukamara and everyone just kinda shrugged? And then Amukamara turned into the kind of player the Giants thought he would be when they drafted him #19 overall back in 2011. Everyone loves Kyle Fuller now, but remember when there was real talk about shifting him over to safety, or when the Bears left him on IR after he recovered in 2016, or when the Bears didn’t pick up the fifth-year option on Fuller’s contract? Both Fuller and Amukamara were OK players, and Vic Fangio made them great. Well guess who’s coaching Denver now? Dennard has actually been slightly better than OK playing as the slot corner in Cincy, but.... well, if a corner plays OK in Cincy but no one watches, does he make a sound? And I know, I know, slot is the one corner spot where the Broncos don’t need any help, but Chris Harris wants to move back outside opening up the slot for Dennard. And who’s to say Dennard can’t play outside anyway? The Bengals never really tried him there, but it’s where he played at Michigan State, and where most people thought he would be drafted to play.
- Bryce Callahan: Houston Texans - I think the Broncos would very much like to bring Callahan to Denver to play for his old coach Fangio, but Houston’s his hometown (and Rice - located in Houston - his alma mater) so I think the pull between both of those is gonna be strong and it might just come down to money, in which case the Texans have a lot and the Broncos don’t.
- Jason Verrett: Arizona Cardinals - Medium-risk, high-reward move, Verrett won’t cost anywhere near what some of the other FAs do cost unless he hits all his bonuses, and if he does that the Cardinals will be thrilled. He’s been so unlucky with injuries, it’s just ridiculous. And the last one, the achilles tear, was actually the most severe. The Cardinals certainly can’t count on getting anything from Verrett and will have to assemble the rest of their roster accordingly (draft, cheaper signings), but if they do it’ll be a steal.
- Bradley Roby: New York Jets - He won’t come cheap and he had a really subpar year last year, but he’d been good before that (good enough for the Broncos to let Talib go with Roby lined up as a replacement), is a former first-round pick with lots of traits, and the Jets have the money to spend and the need to do so. They’ve had some decent success too with former first-rounders who haven’t exactly lived up to their draft status (Morris Claiborne).
- Morris Claiborne: New York Giants - Once the Jets sign Roby I expect they’ll decide to stop stringing Claiborne along with one-year deals but the timing’s good for Claiborne as the Giants happen to be in the market for a CB after trading Janoris Jenkins away. Claiborne isn’t as flashy as Jenkins but he’s steady, and he doesn’t even have to sub-let his apartment, he just changes the color of his jersey. Call it the Brandon Marshall - going from one New York team to the other so you can stay in New York. It’s a thing. I expect the Giants will draft someone else too.
- Pierre Desir: Houston Texans - I expect the Texans are sick and tired of watching Desir act as a virtual Hopkins-stopper so before the Colts or any other AFC South teams get any big ideas, they ink him to a contract. If you can’t beat ‘em, sign ‘em. Desir actually had more ups and downs than most people think (it seems like everyone saw that game against Hopkins and just assumed he was awesome all year), but he was far improved from the guy he’d been over the course of his career and deserves a chance to start. I think the entire Texans secondary is ripe for an overhaul, I think Kareem Jackson moves to safety full-time, I think they let the Honey Badger go to open up room for Justin Reid, I think if they bring Johnathan Joseph back it’s only as a backup, I think they sign Bryce Callahan and I think they’ll draft someone high too. With Desir in the mix that pretty much makes it a whole new D, Texans 2.0, the one where Watson leads them to the conference semi-finals.
- Kareem Jackson: Houston Texans - He’s still listed as a CB so I’m keeping him here even though they Texans have basically turned him into a full-time safety. And a good one, he vastly outplayed the Honey Badger last year and my have a real chance to be one of those corners who revitalizes their career as a safety. He played so well it would be shocking if they didn’t bring him back, but they can’t franchise him (that’ll be used on Clowney).
- Eric Rowe: Detroit Lions - Rowe is just the kind of versatile DB Patricia likes. He’s played on the outside, in the slot, on special teams, was a safety in college, has even dropped down as a linebacker on occasion. The fact that Patricia has already coached him for two years makes this an easy prediction to make.
- Justin Coleman: Seattle Seahawks - I don’t think it’ll cost them too much to retain him and I’m pretty sure (at least from discussing it with their fans) that Seattle’s FO is pleased with him as their slot corner, so why mess with a good thing?
- P.J. Williams: Chicago Bears - I thought by the end of the year Williams was one of the best nickel corners in the league - he was playing like it, anyway. And when you consider that this was basically his second full year in the league - he missed most of the first two through injury - maybe he’s just coming into his own a little later than most of the guys from his draft class (2015). I thought someone who needs a slot corner would definitely be looking at him this offseason. Then he went out and got a DUI or DWI or whatever Louisiana calls it and not for the first time (the other was back in 2015) and couple that with the injury issues and all of a sudden I think Williams is starting to fall into the Bears price range. I have them losing Callahan this offseason so they’ve definitely got some need there (Toliver may or may not pan out but I don’t think the Bears want to go into the season relying on a 2018 UDFA).
- E.J. Gaines: Philadelphia Eagles - An inexpensive upside option, Gaines was great early in his career with the Rams and then again in 2017 for Buffalo. He’s inconsistent, obviously, as a few subpar seasons were sprinkled in with those good ones, but that’s what makes him affordable. If the Eagles get one of those good seasons out of him, this could be like the Patrick Robinson signing for them. Good business.
- Jason McCourty: New England Patriots - Not retiring.


S:

- Earl Thomas: Green Bay Packers - I know he wants to play for Dallas but there are a lot of problems with that. For one, the Cowboys have been surprisingly conservative during FA in recent years; their last big signing was Brandon Carr back in 2012. They’ve put a focus on re-signing their own, and with their success recently in the draft I’d say that’s a good approach. Jerry seems to have learned his lesson about throwing money around with some albatross contracts a few years back. Also, does Dallas need him? Xavier Woods took his chance in 2018 and he’s a far, far, cheaper option than Thomas would be, and don’t forget, Dallas has to pay DeMarcus Lawrence this offseason and Dak and Zeke soon, and probably Amari Cooper too (not to mention Jaylon Smith, Byron Jones and Vander Esch... man, they’ve drafted well). Do they really want to take on Thomas’s long contract? At the risk of losing one or more of those guys? Unlikely. So now it’s Thomas to the highest bidder (he definitely wants to get paid) and all things being equal, to the highest bidder with the best chance of winning. Enter the Packers who still have Danica’s boyfriend under center, enough money to give him what he wants (and der Geschäftsführer seems willing to throw that money around), and a gaping hole at the position Thomas happens to play. It’s kismet, I guess.
- Tyrann Mathieu: Baltimore Ravens - This is a really tough call. Not sending him to Baltimore (which seems almost pre-ordained) but having Houston not re-sign him. From what I can tell, it’s a really tough call for Texans fans too. On the one hand, his play this season (or the one prior) doesn’t warrant the contract he’s gonna land. He was fine but probably the third best safety on the team behind Kareem Jackson (another FA) and Justin Reid and they’ve also got Andre Hal who though he may not be quite as good (maybe, it’s a debate) is cheaper and his contract is not as restrictive long-term (thinking ahead to the Watson contract). On the other hand, Mathieu brings a lot as a leader and teammate. The Texans universally love him, he’s fiery and into it, and while that sometimes leads to him celebrating a tackle after a 12 yard gain with his piñata dance, it’s still a net gain. Rumor has it he was key to Reid’s development and that guy looks like he might be a long-time pro-bowler. And the Texans are flush with cash, they can afford to bring him back (and he’ll only be 27 during the 2019 season, still a young guy). It comes down to the fact that they’re flush with cash this year but with Watson’s contract coming due soon, do you really want to be tied to Mathieu for the long-term? I don’t think they do. So unless Mathieu gives them a big discount, I think he hits FA. Now I know he hit FA last offseason and it took him awhile to sign, but then he was coming off an injury-plagued season and now he’s coming off a mostly-healthy season. Also, the Ravens weren’t in the market for a safety last offseason. If they had been I think they’d be all over Mathieu. Guys we think are past it have a way of coming back to life in Baltimore (see the guy he’d be replacing, Weddle). Their front seven is almost always productive, they’ve generally got very good CBs, and now they’ve got an offensive style that puts a lot of stress on opposing offenses and less on their own defense. It’s a winning formula. I expect Mathieu to sign here, and I expect to see the Honey Badger of old.
- Landon Collins: New York Giants - Sorry every other fanbase in the world, I can’t see the Giants letting Collins hit free agency. If they don’t sign him they’ll franchise him, I think. I know he has his issues but he’s a confidence player and when the Giants are at their best (and I can only assume they want to be at their best) Collins is playing lights out. When they’re struggling he struggles too. I’m not saying the two are correlated except yes I am, that’s exactly what I’m saying. Collins is one of those guys who needs a good team around him to be at his best. Not the greatest trait in a player but it’s pervasive throughout the league and often as players age they grow more and more professional, so there’s always a chance the consistency Giants fans want to see from him starts to creep into his game. They’ll pay him to find out.
- Adrian Amos: Chicago Bears - So the Bears have done a number on themselves from a cap standpoint. Not only are they playing a defensive player like a QB but here in a couple of years they’re gonna have to start paying their QB like a QB too (should they choose to, anyway). When that day comes they don’t want to be tied down by too many bad long-term contracts but at the same time, now is the time to go for it as much as possible. And they were really close last year too. Not Super Bowl close I don’t think, but they could make a Rams-esque leap next year... or they could have a Jags-style fall. It’s hard to say. But they’ve made it difficult to go for it by paying Mack so much (not that they shouldn’t have done it that guy’s a stud). Amos is a guy I think they can bring back for a middle-of-the-road cost who knows their system and personnel and most importantly, who should have a contract you could get away from in a couple of years. Basically, he’s good enough to win with now and if he isn’t, he won’t demand the kind of contract that could become an albatross (like Callahan could, who’s gonna get paid).
- Adrian Phillips: Dallas Cowboys - Dallas no longer has need of a free safety, but they could definitely use a replacement for Heath. Phillips has been on a slow rise ever since he entered the league as a UDFA in 2014 out of Texas. That’s right, Texas. Garland, Texas, suburb of Dallas. They’re signing a safety from Texas in the offseason, it’s just not the one everyone thinks it is. This one comes a hell of a lot cheaper.
- Tre Boston: Washington Redskins - One guy goes one way (Swearinger), the other guy goes the other. The Redskins have to hope Swearinger didn’t trash them too bad once he arrived in Arizona, but money has a way of smoothing everything out. In October the Redskins looked like they might be set at safety with Swearinger and Clinton-Dix. Whoops. At least Boston can fill one of those holes.
- Anthony Harris: Minnesota Vikings - Did they know what they had in Harris and just refused to play him? Was he a gamer? Why pick up George Iloka at all if you’ve got this guy sitting on your bench? Why start him once Sendejo went down? It doesn’t make any sense. Well whatever the reason the Vikings are lucky to learn what they had just in time to re-sign him and cut Sendejo loose, thus saving themselves $5M against the cap - which they can then turn around and use on Harris, who in fairness is a better player at this point in their careers. At least that’s the way I - as well as the Vikings fans I know - see it, though I understand Zimmer has a strange affinity for Sendejo. Although I’d like to suggest that maybe, Vikings fans, there’s more to it. Maybe Sendejo’s got dirt on Zimmer. Everyone always says compromising photos when they’re talking about dirt, but really now, photos? Who can’t fake a photo? Who doesn’t have a compromising photo of their friends/bosses/co-workers nowadays, people practically exchange them in greeting. So it’d have to be something more than a photo. Video maybe, or drunken tweets. Nobody gives af what you do in a photo but say the wrong thing and you’re dead. It’s probably something like that. Unless it isn’t, in which case Sendejo’s gone and Harris is re-signed.
- Lamarcus Joyner: Carolina Panthers - They’ve needed a free safety for what feels like a decade. I don’t actually know how long it is but it feels like a decade and that’s enough to be comfortable having them sign one. Joyner’s a good free safety. I don’t think the Rams can afford him and I certainly don’t think they’ll franchise him again so he hits the market and the Panthers woo him millions and millions of dollars until he’s theirs. Joyner paired with Reid should be a legit safety combo.
- Kenny Vaccaro: Tennessee Titans - He played better for $1.5M than Cyprien did for $6.75, or at least close enough to it to make Cyprien an easy cut provided they can bring Vaccaro back before someone else snatches him up.
- Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix: Los Angeles Chargers - This is one of those that takes awhile to happen, I think. Remember last year when all the safeties were sitting around jobless for a long-time before all the injuries and reduced demands started getting them jobs? I know Vaccaro didn’t sign until Cyprien went down and I feel like Boston took awhile too and of course Eric Reid as well. Well I think that happens this year too. Most teams are either set or young at safety and don’t want to pay what a vet will cost until they’re season is on the line. Now I’m not saying that will happen to the Chargers, if they’re gonna keep rolling with 3 safety looks they need another guy especially with Phillips leaving in FA (and he’s a guy who will actually sign early), so why not Clinton’s Dick?

Draft Trades:

San Francisco (1,2) for Jacksonville (1,7: 2,38: 2020 1st Round)
New York Jets (1,3) for Washington (1,15: 2,46: 2020 1st Round: 2020 3rd Round)
Detroit Lions (1,8) for New York Jets (1,15: 3,68: 2020 3rd Round)
Tennessee (1,19: 5,158) for Kansas City (1,29: 2,63)
Seattle (1,21) for Green Bay (1,30: 3,76)
Houston (1,23: 5,162) for Los Angeles Chargers (1,28: 3,92)
Seattle (1,30: 5,160) for Houston (2,54: 2,55)
San Francisco (2,36) for Tampa Bay (2,39: 5,146)
San Francisco (2,39) for New York Jets (2,46: 4,106)
Atlanta (2,45) for Tennessee (2,51: 4,122)
Miami (2,48) for Philadelphia (2,53: 4,128)
New England (2,56) for Dallas (2,58: 5,165)
Kansas City (2,61) for Arizona (3,65: 6,176: 2020 6th Round)
New England (2,64) for Tampa Bay (3,70: 2020 4th Round)
*San Francisco (3,67) for Pittsburgh (Antonio Brown)
Atlanta (3,80) for Baltimore (3,86: 5:161)
Tennessee (3,83) for Kansas City (3,93: 2020 4th Round)
Cleveland (3,96) for Oakland (4,107: 5,143)
New England (3,98) for Atlanta (4,118: 4,139)
New England (3,102) for Detroit (4,112: 2020 5th Round)
New York Giants (4,109: 7,222) for Buffalo Bills (4,113: 6,183)
*Jacksonville (4,110) for Chicago (Jordan Howard)
Green Bay (4,115) for Philadelphia (4,119: 7,241)
New England (4,118) for New Orleans (2020 3rd Round)
*Green Bay (4,119) for Philadelphia (Nelson Agholor)
Miami Dolphins (4,128) for Kansas City (4,130: 6,203)
*Indianapolis Colts (4,130) for Kansas City (Justin Houston)
*Buffalo (4,132) for Tampa Bay (Cameron Brate)
*New York Giants (4,138: Janoris Jenkins) for Detroit (5,148: Ricky Wagner)
New England Patriots (4,139) for Oakland Raiders (5,144: 7,220)

* = Pre-Draft

DRAFT:

1ST ROUND:

1. Arizona Cardinals: Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State - I think they might - might - get some trade-down offers that give them pause, but for my money Bosa is such a slam-dunk pick, I think they’ll turn them down (I also think it won’t escape their notice that if they DO trade down and pass on Bosa, he’ll probably fall into division-rival San Francisco’s lap). He doesn’t fit their biggest need but so what? You don’t pass on the elite blue-chippers unless they wouldn’t see the field at all (i.e., another QB). Grab Bosa, be happy. Boring but right.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (From San Francisco): Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State - This, now, is when and where John Gruden takes control of the draft. What?, you say. How, you wonder? Picture this... Gruden, looking at the draft board and noticing how it could fall in a way that fists both he and the Raiders right up the pooper devises a scheme. First, he goes to Derek Carr and says ‘Derek my somewhat feminine-looking young man, we’re about to drop a load of crap on the world about how we’re interested in a QB, just to see how it sticks.’ Then he does just that, goes to their pro days, brings them in for visits, basically goes out of his way to convince the world he’s serious. Of course the world should be skeptical, if I can think of it, I’m sure the much smarter people running NFL FOs can think of it too and Gruden’s actions will seem suspicious. Calculated, even. And for what? Well to get his guys Allen and Quinnen to drop to him of course. Let’s see if it works. So I mentioned up above in my little Bortles spiel (see FA QB section) how the Jaguars are up against it thanks to his contract. If they cut Bortles and go after a guy like Foles they won’t have the money to re-sign Ngakoue and Ramsey when their contracts come due. Or they might, but they’d have to cut half their roster to get there (exaggeration for emphasis). Their best bet - as much as they don’t want to hear it - is to hang on to Bortles and draft a rookie. That way if they win in spite of Bortles (as they did in 2017) they won’t be able to stick with him. In fact best case is Haskins wins the job and Bortles hangs around for a year as an expensive hat-wearer on the sideline (next year he won’t be so painful to cut). Then the Jags have the vaunted QB on a rookie contract and they can sign guys to their heart’s content. But first they have to get above that pesky, Haskins-loving Gruden... and then the team that jumped Gruden too. Just safer to go all the way to #2.
3. Washington Redskins (From NY Jets): Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma - For those of you who only know what goes on in Redskinland peripherally - like maybe you’ve heard about the #firebruceallen stuff, or you’ve heard about the plummeting attendance, or maybe you have what’s known as twitterknowledge of the Redskins - I encourage you to give a read through of one of their subs/forums. Holy shit. I thought it was bad but it’s like being in Cloud Cuckoo Land over there, like the entire Redskins FO should be committed, it’s backstabbing and power moves and a GM/CEO/Overseer who just doesn’t seem to have a grip on reality, and an owner who, well, likewise. What the Redskins should do this offseason is eat Smith’s contract for the full $40M cap hit, just rip the band-aid right off and roll for a year with Josh Johnson and Colt McCoy and hope to wind up with a pick high enough next year to get Tua or Herbert or whoever they want. That’s the right move given their shit luck with Smith. But that’s not gonna happen. Instead, they might extend Smith, mortgaging future cap space so they can spread the cap hit out over more years. Because Bruce Allen is convinced they’re this close to the playoffs (the playoffs being the ultimate goal) and it doesn’t take much to convince his bosom buddy Snyder the same thing, so they’ll do things by half measures in a desperate attempt to stay competitive. Allen has already publicly claimed they’ll have a good season next year so it’s money where your mouth is time. And rumor has it Snyder’s in splash-making mode again, hence the full-court-press on Gregg Williams and Todd Bowles for DC, those were apparently driven by Snyder because Danny-boy’s sick of everyone bad talking him and his buddy Bruce so he goes out and he gives them a ‘football something’ to talk about. Well if nothing else, trading up for Murray’s a splash, and frankly, the only move Allen can make that might salvage a shit season. Cause a guy like Murray’s hard to plan for which is why so many uniquely-gamed rookies come in and win, from Tebow to Lamar Jackson to (gulp) RGIII. The league doesn’t know them yet, it hasn’t schemed up ways to stop them, and if you think those guys are tough, Murray’s on a whole different level. There’s never been a QB with his sort of quickness. He’s got like Tarik Cohen or Darren Sproles level quickness. I’ve even heard some people say Barry Sanders but let’s not get carried away. The point is, he’s athletically freaky for the position. But what really makes him something else is his arm. Like, Vick was a freak athlete and had a strong arm, but he was terribly inaccurate. Murray isn’t. His arm isn’t as strong as Vick’s but it’s plenty strong enough (it’ll be in the top half of the league from day one), he’s accurate, and he’s great at the Mahomes-style off-platform throws. I’m starting to think it’s a baseball thing which makes sense, you often have to make throws with your body in odd positions. If Murray’s a success I expect NFL-types to start scouring backgrounds for any baseball experience the way they did for tight end and basketball. Of course the Redskins will have to be comfortable with his size but I think they can get there, watching Murray play he hardly takes any hits, he’s too quick but most importantly he knows when to go out of bounds or get down (he’s an elite slider which sounds ridiculous but it’s true - more baseball stuff). I expect him to be great but time will tell, I suppose. I also suppose you can take heart from this Redskins fans: either Murray’s a raging success and you’ve got an exciting QB for a long-time, or he’s not and Bruce Allen gets fired. So it’s kinda win-win, maybe?
4. Oakland Raiders: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama - I know a lot of Raiders fans won’t agree with this but here’s my thinking: we can all agree you guys are in something of a rebuild, right? A few years away? OK, so right now, edge is a bigger need than interior, undoubtedly and it looks like there’s one of the top-rated edge guys right there for the taking in Josh Allen. But... but, you’re not drafting for right now, we’ve established that. You’re drafting for two years from now, and who’s to say two years from now you won’t look back at this draft and think ‘man we should have taken Williams’? Cause that’s how the league works, right? This year’s problem is next year’s strength and vice-versa. For my first mock last year I had my Lions drafting Jaire Alexander in the first round and my fellow fans lost it. Well, look now. CB is suddenly one of our biggest needs (though I’m glad to have Ragnow). This happens every year, to every team, roster churn is the NFL norm. So yes, right now you’ve got Hurst and Hall and Ellis and maybe Hankins lining the interior with only Key as a guy for the future on the edge but Hankins might not be back, Ellis is a UFA next offseason and Hurst, for all it seems like it might have been overblown, came into the league with health problems that caused every team to pass on him through five rounds despite his first round grade. My point is you don’t pass on a stud (Fletcher Cox 2.0?) because you’ve got 2nd and 5th rounders from the year prior already on the roster (and if you have to rotate for awhile, so be it, it didn’t stop the Eagles from drafting Cox and Graham and other d-linemen high). I’ve also had you bring in both Preston Smith and Markus Golden in the offseason at edge. Maybe it’s a little overkill, but Smith starts from day one and Golden is a bargain who had his best season under Buckner, so why not bring him in? You can afford it. At the very least it’s insurance against a Key-lapse (heh). And if you really want to draft another edge, this draft is full of them, and you’ve got a lot of picks.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Allen, DE/OLB, Kentucky - It’s as if Gruden was trying to help out both of his former teams with all his smokescreening (see pick #2). If two QBs come off the board before Tampa’s pick they’ll be sitting pretty. Now this seems like a no-brainer to us now and as I expect Allen to shred the combine it’s not like he’s gonna drop too much before the draft, but I do think some over-analysis is gonna set in come April or so, to the point you might start to see some mocks with him going towards the back end of the top 10 and maybe even sometimes behind Polite or Burns. Don’t worry about it too much, it’s standard prospect fatigue. By draft day this will correct and I think we’ll be, if not quite back where we started, close enough. Mocking an edge to Tampa is no big surprise, they’ve brought in Arians and he’s brought in Bowles to run his aggressive 3-4 defense but do they have an edge on the roster? JPP? Surely he’ll be played like a JJ Watt-style 5-tech. Noah Spence will no doubt get a chance, but it’s a bit much to ask them to count on him considering how his career’s gone so far. I had them kick the tires on a couple of guys in FA but those guys are pricey and the Le’Veon and Donovan Smith contracts took up most of the Bucs’ cap space. But look how it worked out.
6. New York Giants: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri - Last year with every mock I did I had the Giants picking Mayfield or Darnold (as I had them both head and shoulders above the rest, and yes, that’s a humblebrag... shit, it’s not even all that humble). I thought for sure they would go QB and I still think they should have, but that’s an argument for another post. This year, I really hate it. I want to mock them Jonah Williams or Cody Ford or another hog molly (man that term is gonna get old fast) but from everything I’m hearing the Giants are serious about finding their QB this year, and really looking hard into Haskins, Lock, Murray and Jones. Well last year everything I heard said they were gonna take Barkley and I ignored it - I mean, what FO let’s everyone know what they’re thinking? - and then of course we all know what happened. So I’m putting more stock into what I hear coming out of the Giants’ FO. On my personal board I’ve got Murray as a top 10 pick, Haskins as a first-rounder and Lock and Jones as day 2 picks (I know many, many of you will disagree) so you can imagine what I think of this pick. But I understand the QB bump, and I understand Lock’s gonna win everyone over with his personality the way he did at the Senior Bowl and who doesn’t love his arm?, but everyone’s gonna conveniently forget that Lock’s most popular comp is Jay Cutler and I don’t know about you but I don’t want to draft Jay Cutler at 6. But I’ve been wrong before.
7. San Francisco 49ers (From Jacksonville): Brian Burns, DE/OLB, Florida State - There’s not a lot of consensus right now over the #3 edge in this draft. Burns, Ferrell, Polite, Sweat... you could even make some arguments for Omenihu and maybe Anthony Nelson, depending how they test at the combine (if Nelson blazes a Watt-esque 6.7 3-cone his draft stock skyrockets). My favorite is probably Ferrell but he’s not the sort of edge the Niners will be looking for, they like em faster and bendier, like Burns. Now I do have them adding Dante Fowler in FA and while that maybe precludes them from having to take an edge in the first, it doesn’t mean they shouldn’t if they find one they like. Fowler’s still a bit of an upside play, the Niners have never been shy about drafting depth high if that’s how it grades out (see Armstead, Buckner, Thomas) and it’s feasible Burns could see time as a SAM in San Francisco’s scheme if he shows out in coverage the way I think he might (we didn’t see a lot of it at FSU but I thought he looked pretty natural). Burns has a real chance to be one of the winners of the combine if he shows up at 250 (rumor has him at 245 already) and still shows his athleticism. Like I said when I wrote about Allen, I think some mocks nearer the draft will have Burns above Allen, he’s a far more advanced pass-rusher.
8. New York Jets (From Detroit): D.K. Metcalf, WR, Mississippi - You see this happen all the time. One team gets a haul in a trade-back, then they give part of it back to trade back up. Hell, Green Bay did it just last year, trading back with the Saints so New Orleans could take Marcus Davenport, then back up with Seattle to grab Jaire Alexander. I remember the Bears did it back in the day to nab Champ Bailey after the Saints had given them everything for Ricky Williams. In these two deals, the Jets basically gave up a 3rd round pick for a 2nd and D.K. Metcalf. That’s winning by any metric. So, don’t get too hung up on need this high in the draft. Teams are drafting guys they love, guys they think will be superstars. And you just know like, six-to-ten teams are falling in love with D.K. Metcalf. This is pretty close to his floor, I think. Maybe Buffalo at nine (if I didn’t have the Jets trade up I might have had the Lions take him here). By draft day he’s gonna be in the conversation for the Jets pick at three and especially the Raiders pick at four (if Bosa, Allen and Williams are gone, which obviously didn’t happen here). He’s got everything NFL teams want in a WR. He’s traitsy. I mean, we’ve all seen that ridiculous photo (if anything it’s time to start losing weight again). His production isn’t what you would want out of a top ten pick but those six-to-ten teams will convince themselves it’s down to extenuating circumstances. Two of his seasons ended early through injury. Mississippi’s offense was rudimentary, and there were too many mouths to feed. It’s all true, too. Metcalf’s got the potential to go bonkers on the league. (George Kittle didn’t have much college production either, and we see what he’s done). I do think the Jets have some bigger needs than WR, especially after I have them ponying up for Adam Humphries. But this is about falling in love with a prospect (as it should be). Metcalf’s a Julio Jones/Josh Gordon/Calvin Johnson style prospect. The idea of S-Darn and Metcalf growing up together should scare the rest of the AFC East. It won’t, but it should. They can nab their O-Line help later on.
9. Buffalo Bills: Cody Ford, OT/OG, Oklahoma - It’s hard to fathom how athletic Ford is at his size, there just aren’t a lot of 6’4 330 pound men who move like he moves. Is he a tackle, is he a guard? I think he’s a tackle who just needs to work on his kick-slide footwork but it’s nice he can play both. What he is, for certain, is a guy who won’t let anyone touch your franchise QB. Not very often. A lot less than most of the Bills’ offensive line, anyway, save for Dawkins and maybe new signing Spencer Long? Uh, I don’t know about that. Anyway, Ford’s a guy you can plug in for a decade and forget about it.
10. Denver Broncos: Jonah Williams, OT/OG, Alabama - This is the draft’s nexus point, I think. It’s generally around here, anywhere from 7-12, where, say, a hard-to-predict positional run might begin, or the first of the players at low-value positions start to come off the board. In the Broncos case, maybe they start a run on CBs, or take the second offensive lineman and start a run there. Maybe they stump for a linebacker. The domino effect of what the Broncos do here will have far-reaching consequences, I think. Well, you can see what I’ve had them do. Positional value wins out. Broncos fans seem to think their new offensive line coach Mike Munchak can turn water into wine on their O-Line. They’re counting on it to fix Bolles, turn Leary back into the guy they thought they were signing from Dallas (tbf he’s been injured a lot) and perhaps turn a lower draft pick into a stud the way he did with so many of those Steelers O-Linemen. And maybe he can, shit those guys are great. But have you ever stopped to consider those guys may just, you know, be great? Sure he helped turn Villanueva from a free tight end into a legit starting left tackle but that may have happened anyway, it doesn’t take a string theorist to think an athletic giant might make a good left tackle. DeCastro and Pouncey were first round picks, Gilbert was a second-round pick. Granted Foster was a UDFA but he’s been a Steeler for so long he learned a lot from other O-Line coaches besides Munchak. What I mean is, there’s not a coach in the world who could turn, for instance, Chaz Green into a player. You have to give him some moldable clay. And while I think he can turn the interior of the line dominant and I like his chances with Bolles, I don’t think Veldheer’s the answer (which is why they let him go in FA) and I’m not sure a 2/3rd round tackle’s the answer either. Meanwhile the guy I think is the best tackle in the draft is just sitting there, and we all know how NFL teams love their offensive linemen, And if the Bolles reclamation project falters, he and Williams can flip-flop spots and give it another go. My hunch is the Denver fans who don’t like this pick will want me to go Devin White or one of the CB trio (Greedy, Murphy & Baker) but what has Elway ever done to lead you to believe he’d pick an ILB this high? As for the CBs, I just don’t think they’ll grade as high as Williams (plus you’ve brought in Dennard, so the need has gone from ‘dire’ to ‘pressing’).
11. Cincinnati Bengals: Devin White, LB, LSU - Here’s the thing about Cincy, we usually nail their picks. They’ve got to be the most predictable drafting team in the league. Character issues? Send them Cincy’s way. Dire need? They’ll address it in the first. Pretty sure I mocked them Billy Price with my first mock of the year last year (admittedly I eventually switched it to Ragnow but I think I would have been right there too if Detroit hadn’t snagged him). So yeah, it’s boring to mock them White when everyone’s doing it. But the smart move when mocking Cincy is to mock the guy everyone’s mocking to them. Maybe that changes with the new coaching staff, who knows? But until I see otherwise, I’m sticking with what I know. And since their linebacker corps is like a who’s who of who’s that?, White makes perfect sense. (That’s a slight exaggeration now that I’ve had them sign K.J. Wright, I just wanted to say ‘who’s who of who’s that’).
12. Green Bay Packers: Rashan Gary, DE/DT, Michigan - I expect the fans of whatever team drafts Rashan Gary on draft day to mostly have a lukewarm reaction to it. Within a week most of those fans will have talked themselves into the pick, of course - ever the optimists we are - but the initial gut response will be mild disappointment. After the combine I expect Gary will have solidified himself in the top 20 at least and maybe even the top 5 so someone’s experiencing that mild disappointment, but need I remind you Texans fans felt something like it when they drafted Watt too? (My Texans fans buddy was more than mildly disappointed as we watched that draft, he threw a full beer across the room as he wanted Nick Fairley. I never let him hear the end of it). (Also, as a Lions fan, I really wish they’d have picked Nick Fairley). A lot of them felt downright anger when they traded up for Watson, as the Chiefs fans did with Mahomes. Sometimes... a lot of time... the guys making these picks know better than us. So what do they all see in Gary? I admit, he’s a tricky prospect to gauge, and setting aside from my own film study, the more I read on him says the NFL guys are universally higher on him than we are. Matt Miller can be a doofus but he’s got good connections, and here’s what one of his scout buddies told him: “I hate how he was used at Michigan, but it goes to show just how athletic he is. I think he’s a top 5 player.” And from one of his GM pals: “If I had to pick one of the top guys to be better in the pros than he was in college, Gary would be my guy.” And the more you look into Gary, the more you see some variation on that theme. So despite my own reservations, I’m fairly confident he’s going to go high, maybe a lot higher than this. So now, why to Green Bay? Everyone has them penciled in for an edge rusher here and for good reason, they need to get pressure on the opposing QB. But to me that’s their biggest need, pressure, and whether it comes from the line or the edge, who cares? And I have to admit at this point I think the bigger guys are gonna grade higher than the edge guys and Gary’s the most freakish athlete of all of them. I see Cam Jordan as the most frequent comp but admittedly his comps are all over the place, from Jordan to Ziggy Ansah, Clowney, De’Shawn Hand, Michael Bennett, Carlos Dunlop, Watt to less flattering ones like Soloman Thomas and Adam Carriker (?). You also have Jordan, Hand and Bennett who - so far at least in Hand’s case - are far better as pros than they were as collegians. Maybe that’s part of the appeal of their comps, I don’t know. But here’s the thing, if you told me two years from now he’ll be near the top of the league in sacks as a 3-4 end a la Chris Jones, Watt, or Donald, as a Lions fan I’d be gravely disappointed, but also, I could totally see it.
13. Miami Dolphins: Christian Wilkins, DE/DT, Clemson - Changing a culture is difficult and few teams need a culture change like the Dolphins. They also happen to have holes up and down their roster, partly because they’re likely to be changing their defensive scheme and need to draft scheme fits, but also because they’ve either drafted shitty (Parker, Jordan Phillips, Dion Jordan, Jamar Taylor) or lost a lot of their guys who turned out good (Landry, Ajayi, Vernon). So, teams with new coaches and FOs are always the most difficult to mock. We don’t have a read on their tendencies so we have to extrapolate based upon what we’ve heard, as well as the way their previous employers behaved. I’m almost certain the Patriots are gonna love Wilkins. In fact I am certain, any Pats fan will tell you how much the Patriots will love Wilkins. He’s a football-mad leader, maybe the best leader in the whole draft. In fact you hear the same sort of things about Wilkins and Flores, so I have a hunch they’re gonna hit it off. The Dolphins have some interesting pieces along their line in Godchaux and Taylor but how are they going to fit? Can Godchaux play as a 0/1-tech? Can Taylor? Or maybe one or both is better served to play on the end of the line, I don’t know. But I know Wilkins will fit, he’s a perfect fit, which is why Pats fans seem to love him so much. I don’t necessarily by that story that the Dolphins are tanking this year (which is why I had them sign Foles), but I do think they seem to have a better awareness of the patience it will take to revamp the roster. So, no trading-up (in fact I looked for a trade-down but couldn’t make it work), just take the best player. Now a lot of you might not think Wilkins is the best player but you simply have to factor in his character, that’s absolutely something an NFL team will take into account.
14. Atlanta Falcons: Charles Omenihu, DE, Texas - This guy’s gonna show out so hard at the combine that come draft day this isn’t gonna seem too high. He’s just the sort of guy NFL FOs and coaching staffs will be clamoring to work with, he’s a long-armed pterodactyl, he’s a freaky athlete, he’s improved his production every year, he was great at the Senior Bowl. Atlanta’s got to hammer the trenches this offseason, I’ve already had them re-sign Jarrett and Irvin as well as sign Veldheer and Shelton and that won’t be the end of it. To me I watch Omenihu and I think he’s a perfect fit in Seattle in the Michael Bennett role, the big strong side end, and of course the Falcons run their defense much like the Seahawks did (Dan Quinn and all). It’s not hard to imagine him terrorizing offenses from the edge on 1st and 2nd down then shifting inside on 3rd down much the same way Bennett did. I know Omenihu’s got some plays that look bad on tape, a man his size getting pushed around is bad optics, but that’s all happening based on technique and awareness issues that seem to improve by the game. It’s like we have a visceral reaction to those and drop him a round but those are the most fixable kinds of mistakes and NFL FOs know it. The fact that he’s shown such vast improvement already bodes well. I just think he’s such a freak athlete for his size this might be his floor. He’s got Ziggy Ansah-style athleticism (and similarly questionable production).

15. Detroit Lions (From Washington via NY Jets): T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa - Normally I have to launch into a big spiel convincing my fellow Lions fans why I’ve decided to make the strange choice I’ve made (remember last year and Jaire Alexander? Doesn’t look so bad now, does it?), but I don’t think I’m gonna have to do much explaining this time, Hockenson’s a beloved prospect over on our sub. He’s one of my favorite prospects too and I generally don’t mock my favorite prospects to the Lions as I’m really trying to nail how Quinn might think and he’s generally a little bit more conservative than I am. But then he drafted my favorite prospect for us last year in Kerryon Johnson and all of a sudden I feel like I’m on a roll. Also, I really think Hockenson’s gonna be the kinda guy Quinn is interested in, a football guy and a leader with a high floor, he’s just the type of conservative pick Quinn is likely to make. Our new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell likes to incorporate tight ends into the game plan whereas the old guy didn’t, and Hockenson’s the best tight end prospect to come around in a long time, a great pass catcher and blocker, he’ll open up the offense in ways few other players can. He’d be a great pick.
16. Carolina Panthers: Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson - The Panthers prefer their ends to be on the larger side, from Peppers to Charles Johnson to Greg Hardy to Mike Rucker and Clelin Ferrell fits the bill. And we all know the Panthers need edge rushers, Obada, Haynes, Addison... you can’t roll into a season counting on those guys, they’re all potential. And I’ve had you guys sign Aaron Lynch for cheap but you can’t really count on him either. I feel like if there’s one thing that can be said about Ferrell, it’s that he can be counted on. No, he’s not as explosive as some of these other edge guys but he’s stronger, better against the run, and to me he’s still a plus athlete especially for his size. It’s like, we’re knocking him cause he’s not Gumby like some of these other guys, but by doing so we’re overlooking the fact that he’s still a pretty damn good athlete. He’s got better bend than Clowney, Watt, Graham and other successful edge rushers. It’s just not a strength. But he’s got other strengths to compensate including a great get-off for his size, I imagine his explosion testing will be excellent, and I’m pretty sure by draft day this will be his floor.
17. Cleveland Browns: Greedy Williams, CB, LSU - I’d say for more than half the teams - and despite his flaws - Greedy’s going to be the belle of the ball at CB, and I think Cleveland will be one of those teams. Wilks and Dorsey prefer corners with more size and as I’ve had them trade for Brockers, their need along the interior of their line isn’t as striking as it was heading into the offseason (though it certainly won’t stop them from drafting DT if they want, Brockers only has one year left on his contract and turns 29 during the season). So instead of taking the 3rd or 4th DT to come off the board, why not take the 1st CB for the second year in a row? We all know Greedy’s strengths and weakness at this point, it really comes down to this: do you believe you can coach him to reach his ceiling? A lot of teams will believe they can. Also, the Browns are getting fucking loaded. Seriously, I think they might have as much talent now as any team in the league (especially if this offseason plays out). I wonder how they’ll do with expectations, cause I can’t be the only one who expects them to not only make the playoffs, but to be a real contender. Like, do I expect the Browns and Chiefs to have the two byes next year? Well not while the Patriots are still around. But would I be shocked? Not in the least.
18. Minnesota Vikings: Jachai Polite, LB, Florida - Rick Spielman has been with the Vikings since 2006 and GM since 2012 which makes the Vikings one of the easier teams to predict. We’ve got a lot of data points, trends have emerged. For instance, since he’s been there the Vikings have drafted eleven DBs in the first three rounds. Eleven top-three-round DBs in thirteen drafts. They’ve only gone three drafts in all of Spielman’s time there without drafting a CB in the first three rounds... but, two of those have been since Zimmer arrived, 2014 and 2017. I think it has more to do with the strength of their defensive backfield those years and needs elsewhere than any restraint on Spielman’s part (plus they didn’t have a first-round pick in 2017), but at the very least it’s a trend worth noting, another data point. He’s also fond of highly drafted pass-catchers (five times), linebackers (three times), running backs (four times), and offensive tackles (four times). You know what positions he almost never drafts in the top three rounds? Interior offensive line (one time in thirteen years), defensive tackle (one time in thirteen years - Sharrif Floyd) and defensive end (twice in thirteen years and both of those in the third, Danielle Hunter and Scott Crichton). In fact looking back at their drafts he’s drafted/helped to draft a ton of those guys in the fourth, (including Everson Griffen, Ray Edward, Brian Robison, Willie Beavers, Jaleel Johnson and Jalyn Holmes) that looks like his sweet spot. So, why bring this up? Because what positions are being mocked to the Vikings most often in the first? Why, the very positions Spielman almost never drafts in the first (in fact it would be never except for the Sharrif Floyd experiment six years ago). Obviously that doesn’t preclude Minnesota from drafting one of those positions but I’m trying to be predictive here so I’ve got to use the data I’ve got on hand. Now I can feel the furrowed brows of some of you out there as I go on this spiel and you’re all like, ‘but Polite’s an edge guy’. For most teams, maybe. Not for Minnesota. So go back and look at Anthony Barr’s scouting report. Go ahead, I’ll wait. Not exactly like Polite’s, but there’s a lot of similarities. Exceptional take-off and closing burst. Outstanding recovery quickness, wow plays. Barr is much longer than Polite but not nearly as advanced as a pass-rusher (coming out), plus, Barr had started off his collegiate career as a linebacker so it was a much easier projection to make. Polite hasn’t played much linebacker at all. And yet I think he’s a better conversion candidate than Barr. For one, his motor always runs hot and his movement skills are fantastic, he’s great on the fly and he probably has the best change of direction skills of anyone in the class. His weakness as a down lineman is his ability to hold the edge but it’s not for a lack of effort, and it will be mitigated as a linebacker. Play him from deeper, let him make plays. Yes, I agree, moving him off the line takes away some of what he does best in the pass-rushing department but the Vikings don’t care about that - they’re interested in what he can add to their team. And when they flex him onto the line during passing downs, they’ll know he can be devastating. I just think he’s got everything you want from a conversion guy - it makes his weaknesses less glaring and could easily emphasize his strengths - and the Vikings have already showed they’re willing to make that conversion. Yes, he’ll likely struggle in coverage for awhile but he’s got everything you want to get past it, he’s a hard-worker, he’s goes 1000% every play and he’s athletic af. There’s no reason by his 3rd or 4th year in the league he can’t be one of the best coverage linebackers. And as I have Barr leaving the Vikings in FA there’s a pretty gaping hole in their defense. They’re crying out for a guy like Polite, and Rick Spielman is a guy who puts his socks and shoes on before his pants. Before his pants. I just really wanted to end with that, non-sequitur or no.
19. Kansas City Chiefs (From Tennessee): Byron Murphy, CB, Washington - On the surface, Kansas City has more holes than a juggernaut team tends to have - though I would counter my own argument by saying the Pats typically have a lot of offseason holes that they manage to masterfully patch every year because they’ve got Brady and Belichick, and I think Mahomes and Reid could do the same in KC. But one thing KC has that New England doesn’t and hasn’t for almost two decades is a QB on a rookie contract. That allows them to - unlike the Patriots - really go for it, the way the Eagles and Rams did. When Mahomes comes due for his contract they’ll have to let some guys go but that’s not for another couple of years. And make no mistake, trading up for Murphy is going for it. To me, he’s a top ten pick. I love everything about his game while some people call him a zone corner, I think that’s ridiculous. Yes, he played mostly zone at Washington but they played plenty of man too and I thought he excelled. He’s as scheme diverse as any other CB in the class. It’s only the stuff that doesn’t have to do with his game holding him back. And I’m not talking about off the field stuff, it’s his size, he’s just not a very big man. But I think he’ll assuage some of those concerns at the combine when he shows up 10-15 pounds heavier and still balls out. And don’t forget Jaire Alexander was considered a small little fella too then he measured in just over 5’10 and just under 200 pounds, balled out at the combine, then got drafted at pick 18 last year. I see Murphy’s pre-draft process putting him pretty much right in the same ballpark. There was a time in KC when they wanted their CBs to be long and traitsy but they’ve gone away from that lately, Steven Nelson is only 5’10 while Kendall Fuller is 5’11. If they can cover, they can cover, and no one else in the draft covers like Murphy but he won’t last much longer, so I have the Chiefs jumping up to get him.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: DeAndre Baker, CB, Georgia - It’s time for the Steelers to sort out their defensive backfield. I have them signing Bashaud Breeland in FA (vastly underrated player) and along with Joe Haden, adding Baker to the mix ought to finally turn their secondary from a weakness to a strength. Everyone knows Baker’s breakdown at this point: great at press man, great tackler, sticky and obnoxious... receivers are going to hate him. But he’s on the smaller side and more worryingly, he might be slow. The combine is gonna matter. If he runs below a 4.5 he might go above Murphy, but I think he’ll probably run in the mid-4.5s putting this right in the wheelhouse of where he’ll go. He’s not actually too different from Haden as a prospect. Small-ish, not as fast. Well if Baker has a career like Haden the Steelers will take it.
21. Green Bay Packers (From Seattle): Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida - Just like last year the whole world knows Seattle wants to trade down and just like last year it works, and with the same team too. It’s borderline criminal that the fucking Packers are able to get Taylor this low. I think he’s in the mix to come of the board starting with the Buccaneers all the way up at #5 but due to a confluence of circumstance, here he is, still sitting here at #21. Ridiculous. He’s my #2 tackle behind Jonah Williams but I think both the Bills and Broncos go Ford and Williams respectively cause they project a little easier to the inside (a little, I think Taylor could flex inside as well) making them slightly safer picks, then a run on defensive linemen starts and most of the teams that need tackle help need it on the left side and Taylor’s a little more difficult to project there. I think he could do it but he put out some bad tape trying the left side a couple of times at Florida which will no doubt affect the projection. But here’s what I love about Taylor... he’s worked himself into a star prospect. This rise of his did not come easy. He was a 385 pound tackle as a senior in high school, fat and out of shape. But little by little he worked at changing his body, he worked at learning his position until it all came together for him this year. I like what that says about him. He wants it. That’s why I think the Packers go OT here instead of edge, it’s about value and Taylor at this point is the best value on the board, IMO. I think he has been for about the last ten picks.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Trayvon Mullen, CB, Clemson - Sure, Ozzie’s been replaced by DeCosta and while that probably makes it a little more difficult to predict what they’ll do, he is the man’s protege and was brought up in ‘the way Ozzie does things’. Does that mean he’ll keep drafting so many Alabama players? I don’t know. It’s worked pretty well for them over the years but Ozzie was an Alabama alum too. DeCosta went to something called Colby College. Let’s say maybe. (Also, yes, I know Ravens fans, the Alabama thing was a little overblown. Not totally overblown though). Ozzie also liked to draft guys who were ‘falling’ at least according to the public narrative which is why he tended to get good grades. Also, it worked a lot. What about positional tendencies? Only twice in twenty-three drafts did Ozzie take a WR in the first round: Mark Clayton in 2005 and Breshad Perriman in 2015. Neither one worked out very well. Obviously that doesn’t preclude the Ravens from going WR... which is what most Baltimore fans seem to want DeCosta to do, but since I’m trying to be as predictive as possible, I’m gonna use what information I have. Six times they’ve drafted a DB in the first round. That’s more than 25% of the time, and that’s a lot. DeCosta’s not Ozzie but he learned at his side, and until I know otherwise I have to assume the old tight end rubbed off on him. Mullen’s a guy a lot of people were high on to start the season, then the season happened and we were all kinda ‘maybe he’s not so great’, then the national championship game happened and we were like, he’s awesome. And now comes the testing part which I expect him to ace (he’s not a blazer but he’s fast enough, and his length and smooth hips will set a lot of GM heads a-nodding). And here’s the thing... Humphrey was a guy with all the traits but who struggled with some of the finer points of the position, and he’s come on like gang-busters. With Jimmy Smith turning 31 this summer that leaves only Averette and Canady along with Humphrey as DBs for the future and that’s not enough. With the Honey Badger, DeVante Parker and two new iOL coming in through FA, the Ravens can focus a little more on BPA.
23. Los Angeles Chargers (From Houston): Ed Oliver, DT, Houston - I imagine some of you think this is nuts, Oliver falling this far (note, I wrote this before Casserly’s mock and I’m leaving it). Well maybe it is a little but it happens all the time. Remember Robert Nkemdiche? He was gonna revolutionize the game, and then after the struggled in college we were still mocking him in the top ten for awhile. He went 29th. Da’Quan Bowers went from a sure-fire top ten pick to the middle of the second round. LaMarr Woodley should have been one of the first defensive ends taken in 2007, instead he lasted until the 46th pick. Shit, even Guice and Landry last year (I don’t buy the Landry injury narrative). They didn’t fall for drugs or because they were in trouble with the law or because of some undiagnosed injury. They fell for reasons that in hindsight seem obvious: they weren’t as good as we thought, or their fits were up-in-the-air, or maybe there was some off-the-field stuff that didn’t get them in trouble with the law, but made them bad teammates. Personality issues, lets say. So here’s the thing about Ed Oliver: he kinda ticks all those boxes. He got in a fight with his coach on the sideline, red flag. According to MMQB he’s a high-maintenance guy who seeks out special privileges, red flag. In his last year before the draft, when he should be showing out, he had his worst season by far. Red flag. And then, what is he? A 6’1 274 pound DT? Not a lot of those in the league. Shit, Lance Zeuerlein wants to turn him into an ILB. I’d say when shit like that’s being thrown around, you’re fit is up for debate. But here’s a couple of things Oliver has going for him that those other guys didn’t. First, his effort. No matter what you say about the guy, he goes all out all the time. That’s huge for his stock, and why he doesn’t fall any further than this. Second, despite his size he’s an explosive athlete who’s strong as an ox. You make those guys fit, not the other way around. For me he’s a 3-tech you can flex outside, maybe you can play his as a five-tech too. It’d be nice if he could tack on about 15-20 pounds and keep the same explosion and I’m sure he’ll try. For the Chargers him falling to them is a godsend as I have them losing Liuget and Mebane and and damn near their whole interior except Justin Jones and while I’ve had them bring in Malik Jackson in FA that certainly won’t stop them from picking Oliver.
24. Oakland Raiders (From Chicago): Noah Fant, TE, Iowa - The Raiders are in the envious and yet un-envious position of being able to go with almost any position here as they have holes everywhere. An edge? Highly possible. WR? Could be. CB to line up alongside Conley? Assuredly an option (though Worley played pretty well). RB? LB? iOL? S? You know it. They could even look at QB if they were so inclined, it depends what they think of Jones or Jackson or even Stidham (and Carr of course). Or, also, they could go tight end. OK yes, I have them bringing back Jared Cook for another year, but that’s only for one more year, and it’s possible that he’s coming off the best year of his life. I mean, let’s remember who we’re talking about here... permanent letdown Jared Cook, the guy who could never quite put it together. Who says after ten years he doesn’t go back to being that guy? And even if he doesn’t, listen to this list of the other guys: Lee Smith, Derek Carrier, Darren Waller, Paul Butler. Or as they’re also known, generic position group 5b. If I wrote it Lee Butler, Derek Smith, Paul Waller and Darren Carrier, would you know the difference? I didn’t think so. That’s who’s left once Jared Cook’s gone or gets hurt. Unacceptable. We all know Fant’s gonna blow up the combine but I want to talk about his blocking ability which I think is highly underrated. The problem is he’s no Hockenson when it comes to blocking but he’s still decent and a lot better than some of the NFL’s best tight ends were when they came out (Ertz, Engram, Njoku, Graham, Gonzalez). Some of those guys improved dramatically as blockers, some of them didn’t. But all of them had a major impact on the league. Fant will too.
25. Philadelphia Eagles: Yodny Cajuste, OT, West Virginia - This is the guy this year, like Kolton Miller last year or Cam Robinson the year before, the guy who gets drafted more for what he could be than what he is. I love his upside - he looks like Tyron Smith out there to me, I know he’s got a long way to go to be Tyron Smith but he looks like him, and who doesn’t love Tyron Smith? And I love Philly as a landing spot for him too, he can either sit behind Peters and learn how to be a left tackle or sit behind Johnson and learn how to play on the right or whatever. The point is Philly needs a tackle and Cajuste might have the highest upside of any tackle in the class.
26. Indianapolis Colts: Renell Wren, DT, Arizona State - I have a feeling a lot of Colts fans will hate this pick and demand I go WR but I have some issues with that. For starters, Chris Ballard has never been a part of an FO that drafted a WR early. The earliest was probably Alshon Jeffery in the 2nd round back when Ballard was in Chicago, but otherwise it’s been FAs and later-round guys. Also everything coming out of his mouth this offseason points to the idea that he likes the Colts WR corps more than the fans do, and I expect that’s especially true now that I’ve had him bring in Tyrell Williams. But he loves Deon Cain and likes Inman too (who I expect them to bring back), not to mention Daurice Fountain. Lastly I think Ballard knows they need to get heat on the QB. They’ve paid Za’Darius Smith and traded for Justin Houston in FA so they’ve got a lot of help on the edge, but the interior of their line is lacking. So, on Wren.... It’s seems way too high now but it won’t by draft day, he’s just too traitsy, and we know Ballard likes his traitsy guys as evidenced by his drafting of Kemeko Turay in the second last year. In fact Turay’s instructive... a guy with all the tools but up-and-down production. That’s Wren too. In fact Wren’s up-and-down production might be more excusable given there’s a better reason for it: his role at Arizona State was to occupy blockers, which is ridiculous for a man with his skill-set. I see him comped to Chris Jones a lot and I agree with that. Well Ballard was in Kansas City when they drafted Chris Jones, I have the strong suspicion he’s gonna see a lot of the latter in the former. I think it’s pretty clear he’s gonna test like a monster for a man his size, the only question is whether or not he can take the inconsistencies in his game and turn them into strengths the way Jones did.
27. Oakland Raiders (From Dallas): Nasir Adderly, S, Delaware - By the end of the Senior Bowl Adderly’s helmet was covered with Raiders stickers which made it very easy to envision the man wearing silver and black. I have to admit I also got the vibe that Gruden has come a long way as a coach. We know his mistakeaphobia will always have him preferring vets but the way he interacted with those kids and the way they played hard for him, well, like I said... that seemed like progress to me. Who knew a man could grow more patient as he aged? If he can develop a Carroll-esque relationship with the young guys on his roster to go along with his crotchety yet professional treatment of vets, well then suddenly I have a much rosier view of the Raiders’ future. If I was a Raiders fan I would have loved what I saw at the Senior Bowl. Adderly himself spoke glowingly about Gruden and the Raiders staff, so you know he’s getting through to them. As for the Adderly pick, I feel like he’s been discussed ad nauseum for the past two months in this sub, everyone knows what they’re getting, right? The draft’s best free safety (or at least the one with the most traits). Good, moving on.
28. Houston Texans (From LA Chargers): Dalton Risner, OT/OG, Kansas State - I think for better or worse the Texans view Seantrel Henderson as their right tackle coming into the season. As he missed the entirety of 2018’s protection debacle it’s hard to say he can’t be, but we’ve seen a lot of Seantrel Henderson through the years and I think if the Texans roll into the season with him as their only option, it’s not only shortsighted, it’s borderline criminal. Granted he’s only recently been re-signed for another year and his contract is very cheap, it certainly won’t stop the Texans from drafting someone else. And here that someone else is. One of the many things I like about Risner is his versatility. He can play in a man or zone scheme, and if Henderson pans out, you shift Risner inside and let him maul guys from the interior. No problem. Some people prefer him there (my take: try him outside, I think it could work, if it doesn’t he’s a 10 year star at guard). And mauling guys, that’s what he does. I love his play demeanor, just like everyone else will. He’s that dawg, that nasty SOB every fanbase, coach, GM loves. And here’s the Texans last year, watching the Colts spend a bunch of offseason capital to completely revamp their offensive line. Houston’s not in a position to grab a guy like Quenton Nelson, but after paying for Trent Brown in FA and bringing Henderson back, drafting Risner goes a long way towards shoring up their biggest weakness. And don’t forget they still won the division, shit line or no. But you gotta protect the franchise.
29. Tennessee Titans (From Kansas City): Garrett Bradbury, C/OG, North Carolina State - I expect there will be some Titans fans who think they didn’t get enough in compensation from Kansas City to move down. I disagree. It’s true they didn’t overpay, but rarely does a team overpay when they’re not trading up for a QB and especially when they’re not trading up into the top 10. Then it basically follows the chart and this one was almost dead even as far as compensation. I expect they’ll also think I should have simply had them stick and 19 and draft Oliver. Well here’s why I didn’t: 1) I thought the idea of recouping some of the draft capital they lost making last year’s trades (the third in the trade-up for Landry, the fourth in the trade-up for Evans) would prove too enticing, especially given that 2); I believe the reports that say OIiver is lower on actual NFL boards than he is ours (see Casserly’s mock). I do think he’ll give you pause, but in the end I think the trade will win out. There might even be some hope that Oliver falls to this point. Titans GM Jon Robinson usually drafts to fill Tennessee’s biggest needs in the first couple of rounds, the problem this year is figuring out what that need is. Interior lineman for sure, but James Carpenter in FA mitigates it a little. Edge was sorted by the signing of Barr while Chris Hogan at WR... well, admittedly he’s mostly a depth signing. Delanie Walker’s coming back along with Jonnu Smith and while it’s a position group that could be upgraded it’s certainly not the biggest need, and they’ve brought in Earl Mitchell (in this exercise) into the interior of the defense. He doesn’t solve everything but he’s not nothing. I think then within reason they can go BPA from amongst those needs, and to me that’s Bradbury. He’s the best center in the class IMO and a perfect fit in the Titans new zone scheme.
30. Houston Texans (From New Orleans via Green Bay & Seattle): Julian Love, CB, Notre Dame - I know you’ll all hate this trade, Texans fans, but every fanbase always does whenever their team trades up (remember Watson?). But the run on CBs is spooky and here’s the way I see it: you’ve got a bunch of picks and two really glaring needs (O-Line and CB), so why not move around until you’ve positioned yourself in spots to make real upgrades at both? Julian Love is my favorite corner in the draft. I know there’s questions about his speed but man, when I watch him stride for stride with DJ Chark I find myself unconcerned, you know what I mean? Like, I don’t know what he’s gonna run (though I think he might surprise) but he’s got enough defensive nous to stay ahead of the blazers, I’m fine with that. However you get it done, get it done. That’s my take anyway. He’s also great against the jump ball guys (Arcega-Whiteside, for example), he’s fluid and he’s a playmaker and I think he’s got the best instincts of any of the top guys. Baker might be right there with him but it’s close. Anyway, he fills one of the Texans major holes. I’m sure the opinions on him will vary (in fact I know they do, I’ve seen it) but a few teams will love him the way I do and the Texans absolutely need to draft a CB.
31. Los Angeles Rams: Bobby Evans, OT, Oklahoma - So yeah, here’s another guy I think is gonna go a lot higher than the current narrative says he’s gonna go. We’re sleeping on him cause he struggled a little bit in the early part of the year when he shifted over to left tackle to replace Orlando Brown. Everyone just kind of wrote him off and forgot about him. That’s an exaggeration but where all the hype? The guy’s 6’5, 300 pounds with dancing bear feet and a nasty punch. I think he’s the best pulling tackle in the class and he’s smart, too, you’re not gonna fool him with your stunts. His technique needs work as his athleticism bails him out time and again but that’s a common enough problem, and LA’s a great place for him to wind up, he can learn from Whitworth for a year.
32. New England Patriots: Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina - Here’s something Belichick’s bad at: drafting receivers. Receivers and corners, in fact. And he’s not just bad, he’s comically inept. Just listen to this, this is a list of the WRs Belichick’s drafted since he’s been in charge of the Patriots: Braxton Berrios (TBD), Malcolm Mitchell, Devin Lucien, Jeremy Gallon, Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, Jeremy Ebert, Taylor Price, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, Matt Slater, Chad Jackson, P.K. Sam, Bethel Johnson, Deion Branch, David Givens and Sean Morey. Obviously Edelman’s a star but he was a 7th rounder so that’s basically luck (so was David Givens) so that leaves Deion Branch as the only receiver Bill’s thrown real draft capital at who turned out, and that was 17 years ago! Yowza. Now you Pats fans might be saying something like ‘Bill doesn’t take first-round receivers’ and while that’s technically true, he’s taken a ton of second-round receivers, including a few right around here. I don’t think a difference of 3 or 4 spots means he ‘doesn’t do’ something. Last year we all said he didn’t take RBs in the first-round (Maroney was an outlier who didn’t work out), or he always trades down from the back end of the first. Well he threw us for a loop, didn’t he? I think the truth is predicting what Belichick’s gonna do, even after almost 20 years, is difficult, because he’s always assessing himself and adjusting. Maybe drafting a RB in the first wasn’t the thing to do ten years ago but it was last year. And maybe, probably I guess, it’s time to draft a receiver highly. Aside from Edelman they don’t have anyone (though I have them re-signing Patterson). Hogan’s a free agent. Dorsett’s a free agent. Who knows what’s gonna happen with Gordon. Gronk’s retiring. I did have them bring in Tate in FA and while he and Deebo are a little same-y, that’s never stopped the Pats before, plenty of times they started Edelman and Amendola together or Edelman and Welker (alas, no triumvirate, Welker left for Denver the year Amendola signed, probably not a coincidence). Now typically when Bill goes WR he chooses one 3-5 spots down the consensus board. He reaches, basically. Jackson was a reach, Dobson was a reach, Taylor Price was a reach. I don’t know how much of a reach Deebo is (not much, IMO) but I think most people will have Marquise Brown, Harmon, Harry and maybe Butler above him. That counts in my book.




2ND ROUND:


33. Arizona Cardinals: Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State - I know the needs along the line are dire, I know. And I know that keeping your franchise QB upright and healthy is job #1. I get it. But, here’s the thing, like with the old 3-4 defenses back in the 80s being able to grab guys later than usual because no one else was targeting them, what Kingsbury’s gonna want out of his offensive linemen is different than what the rest of the league will want. Trust me, I’ve been a fan of a Big 12 team for a long time. Not guys that wouldn’t be targeted anyway by other teams, but not as early as they’d normally go. He’ll be able to scheme protections for Rosen, and those scheme fits he can grab a little further down the board. So instead, another upgrade at WR. I know it seems like, to this point, I’ve had the Cardinals enter the draft with a bunch of slot receivers (depending on what you think of Kirk, but Fitz and Beasley for sure). But you gotta know how the air raid works, how Kliff’s gonna be able to scheme these guys open, how... I don’t want to say the offense is positionless exactly, but it definitely plays to a guy’s strengths, whatever they are. Butler steps into the role that Wesley and Vasher played last year on the Tech offense (man, watch out for Vasher in a year or two, has the look of a first-rounder to me), the pure outside guy, the go-up-and-get-it guy. I know a lot of people will prefer Harmon or Harry and that’s fair but I expect Kliff will have a lot more familiarity with Butler, I expect he’ll run faster than Harmon or Harry and I expect by draft day he’ll be higher on a lot of teams’ boards, not just the Cardinals.
34. Indianapolis Colts: Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama - I have to admit, I love this fit. While I think there’s been a lot of overreaction to Thompson’s horrible playoffs, I do think it served to illustrate some weaknesses that I’d been concerned about over the course of the season. Sometimes he seemed to process things so quickly and sometimes he didn’t, especially when he appeared to be made to think more than react. I suppose that’s true of everyone, but he had some odd lapses from time to time, as if he simply got overwhelmed. Obviously his tackling angles can sometimes be lacking as evidenced pretty regularly in the title game, and he often struggles to get guys to the ground. That said, when he’s on his game, he comes us off as an instinctive game-wrecker, capable of lining up in the slot, playing deep, or crashing the line of scrimmage. I’m interested to see how he tests... at times he looked like the fastest guy on the field, at other times he looked like one of the slowest. My hunch is he tests well. I just don’t think it’s possible to look so much faster than everyone else without being fast (instincts can only cover for so much), while over-thinking and hesitation can make a fast guy look slow. But here’s why I love the fit: Malik Hooker. Hooker’s maybe the best safety I’ve ever watched as far as range, he’ll be able to cover for a lot of Thompson’s weaknesses, allowing him to play to his strengths. And let’s not forget, for the first half of the 2018 college season, this guy was being talked about as a top 10 pick. I think this is a major over-correction, and I think it’s the Colts who benefit.
35. Oakland Raiders: Devin Bush, LB, Michigan - So I think a lot of people will wonder why I’ve had Bush go above Wilson. To me, Wilson has some major performance red flags. When he was asked to be the quarterback of the defense for the first time this year, he botched it. I know it was really his first time running the D and he should and almost certainly will improve, but are you willing to bet a high pick on it? I had a super-Bama-fan buddy of mine tell me Wilson was terribly overrated cause he’s a Saban LB, that he couldn’t hold a candle to Evans as a prospect, that he’d rather have a healthy Shaun Dion Hamilton on his team. Yikes. Obviously I didn’t take him at his word - he’s a hot-headed, reactionary cocksucker no one should ever take him at his word - but a lot of what he said rang true. Wilson really struggled this year. He was awful at calling the defense and consistently filled the wrong gap. He makes splash plays now and again but that’s not enough, and I think NFL types will notice. He’ll get drafted pretty quick here based on his testing, upside and background (as a Saban LB) but I don’t think he goes before Bush. Because Bush, on the other hand, has the mental side of the game down. And you want splash plays? As they used to say way back in the mid-2000s, fuggedaboutit. Bush flies around like a ball-seeking missile (football-seeking, not, you know, like balls), his motor’s always hot, he can cover more ground than most linebackers in the draft, and his coverage skills, while still developing, ought to be a plus for him soon enough. He wasn’t asked to do it very often but when he was showed promising potential. His one major weakness - and the reason I don’t think he goes higher than this - is that if a blocker gets their hands on him that’s usually it. No surprise, he’s not the biggest guy in the world, but he really struggles to get off blocks. He’s very good at avoiding them though, and plenty of smaller linebackers have made a career out of being too fleet of foot to catch (Deion Jones, Lavonte David, Rueben Foster, Raekwon McMillan, Shazier), and almost all of them improved at taking on blocks once they entered the league anyway. Bush ought to be able to do the same.
36. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (From San Francisco): Chris Lindstrom, OG, Boston College - The Niners need more picks so a little trade down here to add a fifth-rounder makes sense. And the Bucs don’t mind giving one up to jump ahead of the Giants who will no doubt be looking to further shore up their line at some point and have a GM renowned for his love of hog mollies (ugh, I am officially retiring that term from this exercise from here on out). So I think a few teams will be trying to copy the Colts blueprint from last offseason and while obviously nabbing Quenton Nelson greatly accelerated the progress in Indy, Lindstrom is probably the best facsimile of the former Golden Domer available in this year’s draft. It doesn’t shore up their hole at right tackle but it does improve their line as a whole, and that matters almost as much. Lindstrom’s too good to pass up.
37. New York Giants: Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple - A couple of things about Gettleman: he’s not afraid to draft small-school guys high and if he’s not drafting a... big guy for the offensive or defensive line (hog molly is a lot shorter), corner is a position he typically targets high in drafts. I think Ya-Sin, like Darius Leonard and Rashard Penny last year, is a legitimate Senior Bowl riser, unlike ‘narrative risers’ like Andrew Brown, Byron Pringle and soon enough, Montez Sweat. He showed the right kind of mentality for an NFL CB and I expect him to test very well. The Giants added Morris Claiborne in the offseason but moved on from Janoris Jenkins, and while I know they’re high on Sam Beal, he’s coming off an injury and as unknown as Ya-Sin. I think Giants fans are gonna love Ya-Sin’s brash, in your face style. If ya gonna sin, ya might as well rock it.
38. San Francisco 49ers (From Jacksonville): Joejuan Williams, CB, Vanderbilt - Conversely, I think the narrative’s getting a little out of control on Joejuan Williams, I saw him in the first round the other day and I’m thinking, is there something I’m missing? So I went back and watched him again and the answer is no, I’m not missing anything. Everyone else is missing it, I guess. Don’t get me wrong I don’t dislike him as a prospect I just think he needs a lot of work, my original evaluation was 3-4th and I’m sticking with it. My main problem is the way he loses receivers at the top of their routes... and I mean really loses them, like they’re playing hide and seek. I’ll be honest, when I’m watching him I’m thinking Mike Rumph (dating myself) and you don’t want to look like Mike Rumph, am I right Niners fans? Rumph raised himself during the pre-draft process from a third-round pick to a first-rounder too showing off some of the same traits as Joejuan and especially, the inability to cover guys as they broke off their routes. As for the fit well he meets the Niners corner mold (long, tall), and since I don’t think they’ll be bringing Ward back and Richard Sherman, while he exceeded all expectations in 2018, is still a 31-year-old corner (by season’s start) not far removed from an achilles tear. Ahkello Witherspoon has been a disappointment so far and Tarvarius Moore has always been a project that may or may not work (for the record I was a big fan of Moore last year). All the teams running the Seattle cover-3 are going to be all over Williams, which is another thing that pushes him up the board.
39. New York Jets (From Tampa Bay via San Francisco): Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama - I suppose this is a cop-out compromise on my part, I really don’t like Jacobs higher than the third or maybe late-second but I know I’m in the minority on that one and everything I hear says the NFL guys really like him so here’s me splitting the difference. I have the Jets showing some restraint and signing CJ Anderson instead of LeVeon Bell in FA but when the opportunity to add Jacobs to the mix arises I say they jump. So basically after all the trading around I have the Jets turning their first, third, and fourth rounders this year into Metcalf (1st), Jacobs (2nd), and an extra first-rounder next year (and they still have the Saints third round pick coming up). So that’s the consensus #1 players at both RB and WR and the Redskins first round pick next year. I’d say that’s some expert manipulation of the board. Hmmm.... but I’m trying to be realistic. Maybe it’s too expert.
40. Buffalo Bills: Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma - I’m not sure any player in the draft does as much schematically for a team as Brown does for the Bills. Oh I know they’ve got Foster and he’s a burner too but he’s been defensed, at least, as a guy you can’t let beat you over the top (and poorly too, I might add). Brown, on the other hand, well you have to guard him on WR screens and end-arounds and out of the slot and deep too, of course, and he just presents multiple problems which means you can’t double-team Foster deep and Zay Jones and FA addition Funchess can work the underneath and take advantage of size mismatches and new TE Brate can work the seams against linebackers and safeties who have one eye on Brown and then Shady has so much room to work. If he didn’t already have that Hollywood nickname I would propose another one: The Domino Effect. Now of course there’s the Lisfranc injury to consider, but if there wasn’t he probably would have run a 4.3-something and been drafted in the first round. And from Myles Jack to Jaylon Smith to Sidney Jones, the early-mid second is where injured first-rounders go to be drafted.
41. Denver Broncos: Mack Wilson, LB, Alabama - So I mentioned up in the Devin Bush selection about the red flags that I think are really going to hurt Wilson as a prospect. Namely, he’s a slow-processor. He doesn’t organize the defense well and he tends to fill the wrong gaps. That said, physically he has everything you want and he’s very good in coverage - maybe the best coverage LB in the class - and that’s important in a Vic Fangio defense. And the Broncos can let Davis or Jewell organize the defense and point Wilson in a direction to run and hit or drop and cover, and in that scenario, I think he could thrive. There’s some upside too, maybe he was just overwhelmed by his first year calling the defensive plays at Alabama, maybe over time he’ll get better and better.
42. Cincinnati Bengals: Dru Samia, OG, Oklahoma - By draft day I don’t think we’ll be surprised by this. We all really like his tape; he’s athletic and nasty, he’s one of the better pulling guards in the draft, we’re all just worried about his size and how he’ll measure up to the real hosses on the inside. Well then the Senior Bowl happened and first he dropped a 6’5, 304 at the weigh-in which was bigger than pretty much anyone thought, then he held up great during the drills and the game, much better than some of the bigger guys. Next he’ll dominate the combine at that size, flashing the skills athletic skills we already know he has. Then everyone will go back over his tape and realize Oklahoma’s zone didn’t really give him the opportunities to truly show out, that if he’d been 305 or even 310 (where I expect him to be by the combine) during the season some of his weaknesses wouldn’t have showed at all and that maybe, maybe he’s actually a lot better than we think he is. Boom, high second-rounder. Granted I love the guy, everyone loves the tenacious ones and you’re telling me he’s athletic on top of that? Get that guy on my team.
43. Detroit Lions: Darnell Savage, S, Maryland - Bear with me Lions fans, I know you’re not gonna be too fond of this, let me try and explain. So, Quin’s cut which leaves us with Quandre Diggs, Tracy Walker and Tavon Wilson (if we want him back), and that’s pretty much it. Now, how often does Patricia have us in a three safety look? Well I can’t find the exact numbers but it was a lot, and I think he would like it to be more this season. Playing with five or six DBs generally means taking linebackers off the field which theoretically means you get worse against the run. You’d be better off if your DBs played more like safeties - i.e., strong against the run and the pass - so you don’t give up to much ground to the opponents’, uh, ground game when you go nickel or dime. We did it a lot last year and that was with Quin who by that point was a minus against the run and the pass and got by pretty much on vet savvy alone. That’s why I think Savage makes the most sense for us of the safeties available. He’s a converted corner like Diggs so you know he’s good in coverage and he flies around the field like a maniac and he’s got range into the stands. The first thing people mention when they bring up Savage is his versatility, and the first thing I think of when I hear the word versatility to describe a prospect is how he’s a fit for the Lions.
44. Green Bay Packers: Montez Sweat, OLB/DE, Mississippi State - Oh I can hear all of you now even before I post this thing, Montez Sweat, give us Montez Sweat! I like so-and-so but I’d rather have Montez Sweat. Well... no. Remember last year, remember Harold Landry? The precipitous drop? That’s what I see happening to Sweat. Except unlike Landry, Sweat was never mocked into the top 5 so this is actually less surprising. Yes, yes, they made up some tall tale about a Landry injury, I say hogwash! That was Tennessee saving face. That was we need a story so all the draftniks can feel better about themselves. I’m not buying it. We whiffed on him bad. He was one-dimensional, basically didn’t play the run, had one move, elite though it was, and that made him second-choice, over and over and over again, until Tennessee ended his misery. Sweat was a lukewarm prospect before the Senior Bowl then, for some reason blew up afterward even though all he did was confirm everything we already knew about him... up to and including his disappearance during the actual game. He was long, check. He could flash strength, check. He doesn’t have any bend, check, he doesn’t have any moves, check. He didn’t actually show us anything we didn’t already know about him, but because he set a small school kid on his ass (who for my money will wind up a better player in the league) everyone went nuts. He actually reminds me quite a bit of two prospects: the first is a less-athletic Emmanuel Ogbah. They both flashed now and again, they’re both long and they were both terribly inconsistent, with sacks and other numbers created almost by accident. That’s not fair but they didn’t do a lot of the creating on their own. Ogbah tested at the combine in a way Sweat won’t (Ogbah is a freaky athlete) and he still didn’t get picked until the second round (albeit very early). The other comp I have for him (and the one Packers fans might want to grasp at) is Danielle Hunter. Like Sweat, he was a long, tall guy who didn’t have a ton of bend and not much production either. They both have motors than can run on idle at times too. Now Hunter didn’t go until the end of the third round, 88th overall. But he’s also made the most of himself in the pros. If that’s what the Packers are getting here out of Sweat, I think they’ll be ecstatic.
45. Tennessee Titans (From Atlanta): Irv Smith Jr., TE, Alabama - This is what the Titans do, move up to nab the guys they want. And after moving down earlier they’ve got a little more ammo to do it. Even if Delanie Walker returns healthy from last year’s broken ankle, he’s 35 and while he has two years left on his contract, the Titans can get out from under with only $3M+ in dead cap this year and $1M next year. Jonnu Smith is, well, is he a JAG? I’ve had him on my fantasy team a couple of times when he’s at the top of the waiver wire pickups list and he never does anything. He’s still young so maybe he’ll turn around, but the Titans play with two tight ends more often than not anyway. Enter Smith who should really go much higher than this but this is a loaded class which makes it a great year to get a tight end.
46. San Francisco 49ers (From Washington via NY Jets): Jace Sternberger, TE, Texas A&M - So this might not seem like a glaring need and it’s probably not, but the vibe I’m getting from both Lynch and Niners fans is that they’ll be in for both a WR and a TE this offseason. I mean, Lynch even said as much on a Monday night game against the Giants, and Johnny can be a bit talkative, he usually means what he says. Well they’ve already traded for Antonio Brown, and with both Garrett Celek and Ross Dwelley in the final years of their contracts, it’s time to find Kittle’s running mate. I think it’s possible by draft day Sternberger’s creeping into the first round of a lot of mocks. I don’t think he’s going there (obviously), but that’s based more on need than anything else. I also expect the Niners, like most teams, are going to look into more 12 personnel to combat defenses playing with 6 DBs all the time. Don’t forget the Eagles drafted Goedert last year despite having Ertz and it worked out for both of them. I’m thinking the same thing happens here.
47. Carolina Panthers: Erik McCoy, C, Texas A&M - To be honest, I can’t believe McCoy’s not being talked about more as a first-round pick, that’s what kind of talent I think he has. He’s versatile enough to play in both zone and man schemes, he fires out of his stance, he’s got a little low squatty center of gravity (even at 6’4) so good luck moving him off his spot, his hand placement is excellent, he’s a freak athlete for a man that size. I love watching his tape I can’t really find much wrong with the guy. A couple of times long-armed tackles got into his chest a little but even then he fought like crazy to keep them from reaching the QB but his arms aren’t long so maybe that’s it? I don’t know. But he dominated Clemson and played really well against Alabama, he was great at the Senior Bowl and I don’t think Carolina could ask for a better long-term replacement for Kalil. I wouldn’t be shocked if this is his floor.
48. Philadelphia Eagles (From Miami): Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State - It’s interesting... at the beginning of the pre-draft season for us fans of non-playoff teams (early January), I was telling everyone Simmons would be hard-pressed to go in the first round because of the video. Needless to say, most everyone thought it was a hot take and disagreed. Now that we have the video, the lack of an invite from the combine, and the torn ACL, I feel like I’m going the opposite way of the narrative. Part of it is because he’s undoubtedly a good player, but mostly it’s down to the behavior of the teams. If Rueben Foster and most importantly, Kareem Hunt are being given second-chances so brazenly, then why not a guy with top 10 tape and years behind him and the incident? I mean, isn’t Simmons really the safest, cleanest prospect of all those guys? If anything I think the ACL injury helps his case, by the time he sees the field a thousand NFL stories will have come and gone, he’ll be little more than a blurb in the news cycle. And the Eagles are no strangers to controversial players. This is the team that signed Michael Vick, don’t forget. Remember the shit storm around that? It was as if they’d signed Josef Stalin straight from the pages of history. They were also rumored to be interested in Joe Mixon, stood by Riley Cooper after he came out as a racist, drafted Wendell Smallwood even though he was once arrested for intimidation regarding a murder case (wtf?) and Jalen Mills had some sort of violence against women charge too. The point is, the Eagles are one of the few teams that really don’t seem to give af about character issues. They’re also no strangers to drafting guys they have to wait on (and in the second round no less - Sidney Jones), and we know how Howie loves his defensive lineman, and with Graham, Ngata and perhaps Jernigan on their way out (I didn’t have Jernigan gone by draft day but it could change afterwards), it makes sense for the Eagles to hammer the d-line yet again. And Simmons’s unavailability until the latter part of the season is more palatable on a team like the Eagles as they have so much d-line depth. As for the trade, well everyone knows the Browns and John Dorsey are hot after character risks, I think a good chunk of the league will zero in on Cleveland’s second-round pick as a possible landing spot so if you want him you gotta jump them, and it just so happens Philly has three late fourth-rounders what with the comp pick and the Agholor trade, giving one up to ensure they get their guy makes a lot of sense.
49. Cleveland Browns: Gerald Willis, DT, Miami - On talent alone Willis is a first-round pick. Well, maybe. It depends what he weighs (he don’t look like no 280 pound man, surely it’s more). He’s on the cusp of it anyway. But he’s got all this off-the-field, character stuff dragging him down and... is it getting to be too much of a cliché to think Dorsey’s gonna not only be interested in him, but draft him too? And he’s not just a guy with the off-the-field stuff, but he’s one of those super-talented-but-hasn’t-put-it-all-together projects Dorsey drafts a lot too. Sometimes it works out (Chris Jones, Mahomes, Tyreek) sometimes is doesn’t (Kpassagnon, Keivarae Russell, Phillip Gaines) but the hits make him keep coming back. The good thing for Cleveland is having brought Brockers in via trade they’ve got some time to develop Willis.
50. Minnesota Vikings: Michael Dieter, OG/C, Wisconsin - I almost hate to mock Dieter here cause it’s still too early for Spielman to go interior lineman but at least we’re in the ballpark of where he’s drafted them before, we’re only about twenty picks from where he took Elflein a couple of years back and his terrible Willie Beavers pick was... oh well actually it was a little bit further away. Well you’re in luck Vikings fans, I’m sticking with it because Spielman has to see, he just has to, that your OL pretty much ruined your season last year and even if he has to fight against his instincts to make this pick I think he’ll do it. Not in the first but by this point... well, like I said, at least he’s shown something like it before. Once. I really hope Dieter’s gone by this point though, I’d hate for him to end up in Minny he’ll shore up the guard spot for a decade plus. I mean, has a Wisconsin offensive lineman ever failed? Now I’m thinking about it, and now I’m looking it up... Ramczyk, good player. Havenstein, Ricky Wagner, Ryan Groy, Kevin Zeitler, good players. Travis Frederick, great player. Joe Thomas. You have to go back to Gabe Carimi and Peter Konz to find any straight-up busts from Wisconsin and it’s been more than seven years since those guys entered the league (or it will have been, once the season starts). News flash, Dieter’s not gonna bust. He’s too athletic and too nasty, those guys always succeed. I really fucking hope he doesn’t end up in Minny.
51. Atlanta Falcons (From Tennessee): Amani Oruwariye, CB, Penn State - I know Dimitroff tends to be more of a needs-based drafter but this marks the second year in a row where I think CB is a need for Atlanta. Last year I mocked them a CB in the second and while I got the wrong one (Donte Jackson instead of Oliver) clearly he saw CB as a need last year, and I’d say it’s actually more of a need this year with the release of Alford. I assume Oliver will get the first crack at the starting lineup but even if he’s a success, how much longer does Trufant have as a high-level player? He turns 29 this year and CBs age like RBs, the bottom can drop out when they turn 30. Can’t say whether that’ll happen to Trufant or not, but if it does it’ll be nice to have Oruwariye around as an insurance policy. Frankly he’s a steal at this point, this is as much a value pick as anything, it just happens to fit a secondary Falcons need. The first mock I did I had him in the first round but after some research and reshuffling he dropped. All the better for Atlanta. I’m sure Falcons fans would love for me to draft an interior o-lineman here, but these GMs all seem so certain they can fill that particular hole later on. Remember, it was a need last year too and what did Dimitroff do?Threw exactly zero picks at the problem.
52. Pittsburgh Steelers: Christian Miller, DE/OLB, Alabama - Maybe my favorite pick of the draft so far, I love the idea of Miller winding up in Pittsburgh. Miller’s had one of the strangest paths to the NFL of any prospect I can remember. I mean, it’s not Efe Obada strange - he wasn’t sold into slavery as a child - but it’s weird nevertheless, especially for someone coming out of Alabama. He’s one of my favorite edge prospects in this class, maybe my second favorite behind Josh Allen of the more linebacker-y edges. I definitely think he’s gonna be a better pro than college player, the circumstances conspired against him. He got hurt in 2017 just as he was about to move into the starting lineup and everyone just forgot about him. He doesn’t have a ton of numbers but a lot of guys on Alabama’s D don’t put up a ton of numbers, too many other guys making plays, and Miller made his share. But put on the tape. Miller’s relentless, I think he’s got some of the best bend in the class, I think he’s got the kind of freaky athleticism to pull moves off other guys wouldn’t even try. The Steelers have a Bud Dupree decision to make but even if they roll with him for another year it couldn’t hurt to start thinking about next year.
53. Miami Dolphins (From Baltimore via Philadelphia): Kelvin Harmon, WR, North Carolina State - The Dolphins aren’t drafting for 2019. They’re drafting for 2020, 2021, you get the idea. The future. As such their needs are too ephemeral to have too much of an impact on this draft. A need today might not be tomorrow and vice versa. This allows them to approach the draft with an eye towards BPA more or less, and at this point Harmon’s a major bargain. Like I mentioned in their Wilkins pick, the hard work is changing the culture. Christian Wilkins does that. Kelvin Harmon does that too. He’s an absolute game-long terror on the defense, he never slows down, he never gives up, he might be the best blocking receiver I’ve ever graded. He’s just the kind of dawg you want on your team. Oh, and he’s pretty damn good at catching the ball too. After losing Parker and Amendola in the offseason they’ve got Stills and Albert Wilson and Caroo and Isaiah Ford and Jakeem Grant... how many of those guys do you see in their future plans? Wilson? Grant maybe?Shit, come to think of it how many of those do you see in their current plans? Here I was thinking Stills and Wilson and maybe Grant in the slot was a decent enough starting three but it’s not, is it? Harmon will look really good down on South Beach.
54. Seattle Seahawks (From Seattle via Houston): Germaine Pratt, LB, North Carolina State - It seems like there’s an abnormal number of back-to-back picks from the same school. Pratt & Harmon. Sternberger & McCoy. Bosa & Haskins. Well shit, that’s it, maybe that’s an abnormal amount by this point, is it? I don’t know. Oh, also interesting, the way I get to write this pick: Seattle from Seattle. It happens more than you think, a team getting it’s original pick back. In this case, Seattle originally traded the pick to Houston for Duane Brown, then they got it back from Houston (as well as Houston’s own second-rounder, coming up next) when the Texans traded all the way back up to #30 for Julian Love (a trade I’m sure Houston fans hated). Pratt is the Seahawks 2019 answer to K.J. Wright who I have them allowing to leave in free agency. Sure they may or may not have Kendricks too but that’s not something you can count on, anyway. But Pratt gives them some of what Wright gave them, he’s great in coverage (former safety), his run fills are better than you’d think they’d be (and improving), he’s great in pursuit. In fact sometimes he overpursues, but in this swarming Seattle defense it won’t be as big of a problem.
55. Seattle Seahawks (From Houston): N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State - Apparently Pete Carroll’s been on the lookout for a big WR for a long time. It’s why he signed Brandon Marshall, why he brought in Big Mike Williams, Sidney Rice, David Moore, Chris Matthews. Even Jimmy Graham who has always been more receiver than tight end. He’s had far better success drafting small/slighter WRs... Tyler Lockett, Golden Tate, Paul Richardson; whereas the bigger guys - Kris Durham, Kevin Norwood, Chris Harper, Kenny Lawler, Darboh - not so much. But he keeps taking swings and here’s one he can take on a guy who came into the 2018 season as a consensus first-rounder and #1 receiver on a lot of boards. He didn’t necessarily struggle this year - 73 catches, 1088 yards, 10 TDs - but he gave us all an extra year to pick him apart so we did. I do have some concerns about Harry, mostly about his athleticism, a lot of which will be answered by his testing. But I don’t expect him to test that well. He gets comped to Dez a lot and I get it, he runs angry and mean like Dez did at his best but I think in Harry’s case it’s disguising mediocre juice. We’ll see, I’m not his biggest fan but a lot of people smarter than me are, it wouldn’t be the 754th time I’ve been wrong.
56. Dallas Cowboys (From Chicago via New England): Greg Little, OT, Mississippi - I’m willing to admit this could blow up in my face for a couple of reasons. Little has everything physically that NFL FOs go weak in the knees over. He’s athletic and long-armed and experienced. He has the kind of potential that scouts and GMs generally can’t resist. So why do I have him falling this far? Well frankly, I hate his tape. In four years he’s basically shown no improvement (which makes him the opposite of Jawaan Taylor basically). He comes off as lazy and disinterested, he’s inconsistent. Essentially, he’s not the kind of guy you can’t count on, not if you don’t want to get your QB killed. He’s Donovan Smith from the Bucs 2.0 except even less consistent. For those that don’t know, Smith is as shruggy a player as you can have. He’s OK and he’s durable, and being OK and durable as a left tackle gets you paid like crazy, but there’s so many other guys who - while their ceilings might not be quite as high - they’re a hell of a lot more likely to hit them. Of course Smith has been the same guy since he left school and the NFL saw fit to draft him at 34 overall. Guys with his traits don’t generally fall very far, which is true of Little as well. But it’s happening a little more frequently. Jason Spriggs was an upside play with meh tape and he didn’t go until the 48th pick to Green Bay (and he sucks). Le’Raven Clark dropped to the third despite being traitsy, likely due to inexperience (and that was still too early). Julie’n Davenport was in everyone’s top 100 due to his traits but fell to the late fourth in a bad tackle class due to inexperience and lack of technique. Last year Brian O’Neill was all traits but inconsistent and inexperienced. Brandon Parker too. Geron Christian too. Chukwuma Okorafor too. I feel like in past years those guys would have all been first and second rounders. Granted they didn’t play their whole careers in the SEC. So we’ll see. If I make a gaffe in this thing, this is almost certainly it. I can’t imagine getting anything else wrong. Now for the second reason it might blow up in my face: Dallas going OT when they have other, stronger needs. Well I was all set to mock them a DT which I think is their biggest need position and then I did a little snooping and it turns out the Dallas FO almost never drafts DTs high. The running joke is that they hate DTs. I guess they trust Marinelli to make lemonade out of free agent lemons (and low draft picks too, but ‘low draft pick lemons’ didn’t sound as good). He’s done a pretty good job of it so far. So then a strong safety? Not after signing Adrian Phillips. A receiver? Well they signed DeSean Jackson too and they’re a running team, I don’t think a WR would be their first pick. Tight end? Maybe but there’s sooo much depth and they did draft one in the mid-rounds last year. Or they could look BPA which they often do and see a tackle who’s fallen further than they thought he would and though they’re starting positions are filled (though some Cowboys think La’el Collins could be upgraded), they have no depth, not after letting Cam Erving go. And just look how much they’ve struggled when someone on their o-line inevitably gets injured. And it won’t escape them that if they don’t trade up he may very well end up on the rival Eagles, and if they do trade up they can steal him from them. I can see Jerry devilishly rubbing his hands together now.
57. Philadelphia Eagles: Riley Ridley, WR, Georgia - Well I expected a WR run in the second-round. It took a little while to get started but it looks like we’re in the midst of it now. I had the Eagles trade Agholor and allow Tate to leave so even though they re-signed Jordan Matthews and brought in Phillip Dorsett, they’ve still got some major upgrading to do at wide receiver, especially outside receiver, as I expect them to be in 12 personnel more often than not. They brought Dorsett in for cheap depth, not as a starter, and I doubt they can count on Mack Hollins to start, hell, he’s basically missed the better part of two years (I know, I’ve been holding onto him in a deep dynasty league that whole time). Ridley can probably step in and succeed right away the way his brother did, it takes the right mindset and they’ve both got it.
58. New England Patriots (From Dallas): Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson - It almost feels lazy to mock Lawrence to the Pats but let’s face it, if there’s a classic nose tackle available the Pats are usually in the mix. I mocked them Malcom Brown and they drafted Malcom Brown. Ron Brace was another guy I thought they’d have interest in. I mocked them Tim Settle last year with my first mock before they traded for Danny Shelton. It’s an important position in a Patriots style defense (the Lions went from terrible to pretty damn good simply by adding Snacks Harrison). And now it looks like the Patriots will be losing both Brown and Danny Shelton this offseason, there’s a glaring need. Lawrence is the best of the 2-down 0-techs, probably because some people think he can play three downs. I suppose the fact that there’s even an argument about it makes him better than any other option. I don’t think he plays three downs but that’s just me. For what the Pats want from him, he’s perfect.
59. Indianapolis Colts: Dre’Mont Jones, DT, Ohio State - Why not double-up on one of the remarkably few positions of need on the Indy roster? The Colts struggled mightily to get pressure on opposing QBs last year, now they’ve brought in Justin Houston, Za’Darius Smith, Renell Wren and Dre’Mont Jones, Holdovers Kemoko Turay and Tyquan Lewis should improve, Margus Hunt was already great... they’re going to have it Philly-style, wave after wave of unstoppable pressure. Jones struggles to hold up in the run game but I expect him to add weight (he played light at Ohio State last year) and if you want to get pressure from the interior there’s not a lot of guys out there with his skills. He wreaks havoc, and he’s got sideline-to-sideline speed. From the interior of the line! It’s bonkers watching him chase some of the running backs down, they almost never pull away from him. I think the Colts are gonna like him.
60. Los Angeles Chargers: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida - Despite signing Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, the beauty of the Chargers defense is they play so many defensive backs at once. Granted some of that has to do with an utter lack of linebackers but even at full strength the Chargers have often opted to roll with at least six DBs. In this offseason scenario the Chargers have lost Adrian Phillips and Jason Verrett and it turns out that Jahleel Addae isn’t very good and perhaps neither is Trevor Williams. All of a sudden it looks like a secondary that needs an addition or two. Like Darnell Savage, Gardner-Johnson is a converted CB so he can play all over the defensive backfield.
61. Arizona Cardinals (From Kansas City): Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State - I don’t think this is the way the Cardinals would have planned it. I think they like Korey Cunningham and would have signed Darryl Williams with the idea of moving to left tackle. But I just don’t think they can resist coming up to nab a tackle with experience in the very system they’re implementing. I think they would have considered him at 33 so it shocks them to see him still on the board and in lieu of waiting, they make a move (probably wise with the notoriously open-to-trading Pats set to pick right before them). Dillard has nothing but experience in Kingsbury’s new system and I think the first year head man will convince Keim he’s the guy. Dillard ought to be thrilled, going to a system he knows. This is the first time in the history of the league it would be possible to find an air raid system in the NFL. With Cunningham’s potential emergence it makes things a little bit crowded at OT but given the recent history of Arizona tackle play, I think that’s a fine thing. And I’m not sure Cunningham’s a guy you simply want to pencil in, he’s off to a good start but new system, new struggles. Dillard and Williams both have experience in that system on their side.
62. New Orleans Saints: Andy Isabella, WR, UMass - When he blazes a 4.3 at the combine this is roughly where he’ll be going on most of our mocks. Personally, I think he should be a first-rounder but I’m willing to admit the bias against slot receivers is real and that the NFL types are always a touch slow to come around. But Isabella’s a weapon, he’s the slot position, weaponized, and whenever I find these electric, offensive mismatches, I always think to myself, Sean Payton would love to work with that guy. He’ll terrorize the league in New Orleans. Because here’s the thing, Isabella’s a deep threat slot receiver. It’s absurd, I know, but you can send him over the top as often as you have him running Cole Beasley-style inside-out routes, and I’m willing to bet at least two or three times a year he takes that little inside-out route and houses it. How do you cover him? With a quicker than fast nickel back? With a safety? Roll your long-speed outside corner to the inside? Isabella will ruin that guy with a thousand paper cuts. Maybe you double him with a safety over-the-top. Well good luck with that guy Michael Thomas. Isabella is a matchup nightmare, and that makes him a perfect fit for New Orleans.
63. Tennessee Titans (From LA Rams via Kansas City): Anthony Nelson, DE, Iowa - It used to be a lot easier - back when teams ran legitimate base 3-4s or 4-3s - to know what kind of guy a team will like. I’m sure you’re all facing the same dilemmas. Hell, even with my own team (Lions), we can’t agree on whether our FO would prefer a guy like Nelson or more of your classic 3-4 edge guy. It’s square pegs and round holes, all over the place. My hunch is that the key trait for a defensive linemen is versatility, especially in schemes learned at the feet of Belichick, such as Tennessee’s, Detroit’s, Houston’s and now Miami’s. And it’s interesting to note how often a defense that’s allegedly a 3-4 base carries defensive linemen that were originally pigeon-holed as 4-3 ends. You know, the guys ‘too big’ to drop into coverage but too small to play on the line as a 3-4 end. Playoff hero Trey Flowers, for example, at 6’2 266, who was called a “limited scheme fit” coming out of college and not long enough for a 3-4. Jadeveon Clowney at 6’5, 266. Chandler Jones at 6’5 and between 260-280 (NE and AZ asked different things of him weight-wise). Ziggy Ansah was supposed to be our guy at 6’6 275 but alas, injuries ruined him for us. I think the reason for this is simple: traditional 4-3 ends, on the whole, offer a lot of versatility to a front seven. They can set the edge better than say, a Bud Dupree, or a Harold Landry, and rush the passer equally as well and drop sporadically into coverage as trickery. They present matchup problems, and to me that should be what we call New England’s base defense; not a 3-4, a matchup-problem defense. M-Prob. Sounds stat-y. So Nelson measured in at the Senior Bowl at 6’7, 272 with 34 1/4 inch arms, maybe the Titans take him and use him in a way they tried to use Morgan but he never really worked. Or maybe they beef him up and stick him on the line most of the time. He looks to have the frame to add weight, but I think he’s gonna test as a better athlete than everyone thins. I’m really interested in his 3-cone. Either way he’s a piece for the Titans d-line, and they need as many pieces as they can get.
64. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (From New England): David Edwards, OT, Wisconsin - I expect that the plan coming into the draft was to let Demar Dotson play out the last year of his contract. After all, why create new holes when there are already enough to fill a hole offseason with? Sure, find his future replacement if possible but it’ll probably be a developmental guy who needs time. Never in their wildest dreams did they expect to find a guy like Edwards this late, just as I never expected to have a guy like Edwards fall this far. Of course this isn’t far from where guys like Brian O’Neill and Rob Havenstein went (62 & 57 respectively) and Edwards is a similar prospect. He’s a better athlete than Havenstein and he’s a little more experienced than O’Neill (though they were both TE converts) but it’s also a slightly more crowded tackle class. As the Bucs watch Edwards fall they decide they can’t wait any longer and trade up with, you guessed it, the Pats to nab him.





3RD ROUND:


65. Kansas City Chiefs (From Arizona): D’Andre Walker, LB, Georgia - So with the expected changeover from a 3-4 to a 4-3 base the Chiefs are kinda stuck without a SAM linebacker on the whole of their roster. Right now you gotta assume Hitchens takes over in the middle and Dorian O’Daniel on the weakside and then, what, Dee Ford? I don’t think so, he’s too good a fit as the Leo. Justin Houston could have maybe swung it but I have him flipped to Indy for cheap. So it’s time to look draft and I think Walker’s gonna be the exact kind of SAM linebacker Spagnuolo wants. He’s got a great motor, that’s the first thing that jumps of the screen the man never stops. It also mitigates some of his weaknesses as a pass-rusher (snap-timing, hand-usage, etc...), in fact I think SAM in a 4-3 under might be the perfect spot for him.
66. Oakland Raiders: Mecole Hardman, WR, Georgia - Of all the guys I think are gonna rise between now and draft day, I feel perhaps the most confident about Hardman. I just don’t see any way he doesn’t blow out the combine and once the drafting community double-takes at his numbers, we’ll go take a second look at his tape and realize he’s been too low all along. In fact this might still be too low but there’s a lot of depth at WR capping his rise. Hardman is an athletic freak with good hands who transitions into a runner better than maybe anyone else in the class (maybe Deebo). Like Isabella he’s a deep threat from the slot which makes him a glove-fit on the Raiders who have Ateman and Moncrief and Jordy at WR and really no one else, certainly not anyone like Hardman.
67. Pittsburgh Steelers (From San Francisco): Kaden Smith, TE, Stanford - What happens if Vance McDonald goes down now (as he so often does)? Jesse James has taken his talents to Minnesota. Xavier Grimble steps in? Yeah right. He can’t even walk into the end zone for a free touchdown. I still can’t believe that goal line fumble in Denver and yeah, I’m salty, it cost me my fantasy game with Ben as my QB. Anyway, fantasy digression, we all do it. Grimble cannot be relied upon. And what better year to get a 2nd TE than this one which really, this is just such a crazy tight end class. There are some years we would have been talking about Smith at the tail end of the first. Getting him here is thievery I expect it won’t take long for Smith to push McDonald for starter minutes. If he gets hurt again, I’m not sure he’ll ever get his job back. I should point out this is the pick the Steelers received in the Antonio Brown trade. So, Kaden Smith for Antonio Brown. A year ago it would have sounded batshit bonkers but here we are. I think the Steelers will be lucky to get this much.
68. Detroit Lions (From NY Jets): Chase Winovich, OLB/DE, Michigan - While I expect most of my fellow Lions fans will love this pick, I’d like to go on record with hating it. It’s not an anti-Michigan thing or even an anti-Winovich’s personality thing, I’m just very concerned his game doesn’t translate well to the NFL. I see some decent straight-line athleticism and of course he’s got the moves and the motor but I’ve seen so many guys with the right mindset but not the right traits fail, well it makes me nervous. That said I’m trying to best predict what will happen, and even I can see how Winovich fits in as the kind of guy Patricia would like, despite my concerns about him. He’s just the kind of guy the Pats would add to their roster - like Vrabel, Ninkovich, Van Noy and Bruschi... the versatile guys who don’t do one thing at an elite level but can do everything functionally. And like the Lions FO, they don’t necessarily draft front seven defenders early. They draft them in the mid-rounds/late or acquire them at value. I think Detroit is more willing to spend in FA especially while Patricia’s trying to establish his system (see Kennard last year, Brandon Graham if things go as planned this year), but even then I don’t think we’ll be at the top of the market and we’ll find our young guys further into the draft. Everyone assumed we had a crying need for d-line last year and look how we addressed it; Kennard in free agency, trading peanuts for Eli Harold and nabbing Romeo Okwara after the Giants cut him just prior to the season’s start. That’s not how most teams address their #1 need, except for the Pats. So I expect us to use the mid-rounds to find value guys and I know Quinn will love Winovich’s attitude and I could easily see it being the pick. I would take maybe 40 other guys instead, but here we are.
69. Jacksonville Jaguars: J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, WR, Stanford - He just strikes me as a rookie QB’s best friend. The Jags don’t really have anyone like him, either. Chark and Westbrook are speedsters, Lee and Cole are... well they’re not catch-radius monsters. I know Cole had that one crazy catch but that was like his only catch all year. With JJAW Haskins can toss it up to him when he gets in trouble, or look to him for some safe red-zone options and he’ll catch everything. Almost everything. He’s also one of the better blocking receivers in the draft and you just know that will appeal to Coughlin. Any run-based team needs receivers who can block. JJAW comes in handy there. Getting open will always be an issue but it’s the NFL in 2019. If you can’t complete passes to guys who are covered, you’re not going to win very much.
70. New England Patriots (From Tampa Bay): Isaac Nauta, TE, Georgia - Belichick’s on record as saying Georgia guys are ready for the pros. I also have them losing Gronk to retirement but even if they squeeze another year out of him it’s time to start looking towards the future. It’s fascinating reading all the subs and forums of teams that need tight ends. Without fail there’s an argument about drafting Hockenson in the first, some people are for it, some people are against it. What interests me is the people who are against it always use the same argument, some form of: ‘there’s no need to draft Hockenson so early, it’s a deep TE class, I’d much rather have Nauta in the 4th’. Like, it’s pretty much universally accepted that as a prospect, Nauta is Hockenson-lite. So the question then becomes if he’s everyone’s plan b, isn’t he likely to go higher than the fourth? It’s a supply/demand situation, classic market forces and as usual I think the Pats identify it before anyone else.
71. FORFEITED: NEW YORK GIANTS (Sam Beal)
72. Denver Broncos: Justin Layne, CB, Michigan State - I originally had him a lot higher but I chickened out, I still think he could work his way into the second and ahead of guys like Oruwariye and Joejuan Williams, especially to some of the Seattle-style cover 3 teams. He’s gonna test like a freak, he’s gonna be just what those teams look for at CB from a measurement perspective (he’s listed at 6’3 and you can tell by watching him his arms are as long as a regular person’s legs). Yes he’s still learning the position but that just means he’s got lots of upside and he had by far his best season in 2018. Anyway I have the Broncos losing Roby this offseason and while they stumped for Darqueze Dennard in FA, he’s been playing as a slot corner for Cincinnati. To assume he can make the jump outside would be shortsighted. Chris Harris wants to be moved outside but that leaves only he and Isaac Yiadom. They can stand to add another body into the mix.
73. Cincinnati Bengals: Jamel Dean, CB, Auburn - I have a hunch that by draft day this will be Dean’s absolute floor and the only thing keeping him here will be hesitations over his injury history. I think he’s gonna garner first-round considerations in some corners. I’m kinda shocked the narrative’s so low on him now, there’s just not a lot out there which seems mind-boggling for a guy who was all-SEC playing all year with a cast on his hand! We know he’s gonna test like a freak athlete, in fact he already has, running an electronically-timed 4.3 40, long-jumping 10’8 inches with a 38-inch vert, all at 6’1 215. Now take the offseason, home-school-advantage testing with a grain of salt but it shows up on tape and there are very few teams who can’t use a guy like Dean, regardless of their scheme. He’s got some work to do fighting through blocks in the run game (at his size, it should come easier) and like I said, he’s got the injury history, but he’s been two years mostly healthy and at this point he’s worth the risk.
74. New England Patriots (From Detroit): LJ Collier, DT/DE, TCU - He fits the Pats profile, he’s incredibly long, he’s quick, converts speed to power well, great motor, good punch (I suppose that fits everyone’s profile). He can get over-aggressive sometimes but you’d rather have that than otherwise, he’s a great big ball of clay that the Pats will think they can turn into something special. They tend to do that with mid-round picks.
75. Buffalo Bills: Elgton Jenkins, OG/C, Mississippi State - I don’t know whether the Bills signed Spencer Long to play center or guard (for the record, he was far better at guard for the Jets last year but everything lists him as a center), but drafting Jenkins gives them the flexibility to do either. It allows Buffalo to enter the season with a foursome of Jenkins, Long, Bodine and Teller for their interior line positions and that seems like a massive upgrade to me over last year.
76. Seattle Seahawks (From Green Bay): Tyree Jackson, QB, Buffalo - I keep seeing this idea from Seahawks fans - I won’t call it asinine cause I’m a nice guy and don’t want to hurt anyone’s feelings, so let’s just call it inventive - of letting Russ go so they can again take advantage of a new QB on a rookie contract, the theory being, I guess, that it’s the only way Carroll knows how to win? I mean I get it, you guys pioneered the idea back when you found Russ, but I can’t help but think that was little more than the happiest of accidents (in fact I know it was, otherwise no Matt Flynn). A player of Russ’s quality should have never been available that late. That was the true value - not the rookie QB contract stuff - but that you found a stud. It only happened to be late thanks to the close-mindedness of NFL front offices, and it’s unlikely to happen again (see Murray, Kyler). Do it again though and you’re taking the narrative too far. I’m going to plagiarize myself from a comment I made last week on why I think the QB-on-a-rookie-contract narrative is about to swing back around in a pretty severe way: 1) The Saints were one botched call away from reaching the Super Bowl with a very expensive quarterback. Recent history is littered with teams QB’d by expensive QBs, it’s just that we’re in the midst of a small sample size with Goff, Mahomes and Wentz successes. What really helped those teams is that those are good QBs (Goff SB notwithstanding), whether they’re on a rookie contract or not. Same with Baker and Watson. 2) Goff’s performance in the Super Bowl highlights a problem with this approach. The Super Bowl is a lot to put on a young guy. The Eagles might have lucked out that they didn’t have to go through the playoffs with Wentz. 3) The salary cap keeps going up at a record pace, today’s albatross QB contract is tomorrow’s bargain (see Luck, Andrew). 4) The more teams who try and do this, the more difficult it becomes through simple supply and demand. Moneyball shows this, it was far easier for the A’s at first when they were the only ones hunting these bargains. 5) If NFL teams truly believe this, then the market is going to flood with QBs like Russell Wilson, which will then make them less expensive, which will uproot the narrative. And 6) Belichick has already envisioned all of this and is only waiting for an over-reactionary Seahawks team to release Wilson, or the Eagles to release Wentz, or the Chiefs release Mahomes. Please don’t do that to us, other NFL teams. But I hear the noise that this is how Carroll will think, so consider this a compromise. If you like what you see from Jackson then maybe you can move on from Wilson. If you don’t, you have a solid backup for a few years and maybe you can flip him for good picks or at least get a decent comp pick, I think most FOs will take that from a third-round pick. Worse case you’ve wasted a third-round pick and that happens literally, like all the time. I think the Seahawks will value Jackson partially for his mobility (Russ’s backups have been Hundley, Boykin and Tavaris Jackson, all of whom have mobility) and partly for his perceived value (untapped potential). He already showed vast improvement mechanically just from the end of the season to the Senior Bowl. Sitting behind Russ for a year or two could to wonders for his development. Best case scenario, you’ve found another Russ value in Jackson, which brings us full circle.
77. Washington Redskins: A.J. Brown, WR, Mississippi - Two things cross my mind when doing this year’s Redskins picks: 1) who makes the biggest splash, from both a PR and an on-the-field perspective? 2) who helps the team win most, right away? I think a receiver the new rookie QB (or Bridgewater) can trust is paramount, A.J. Brown’s one of the biggest names out there and will be certainly be atop a few ‘best available’ lists (meaning Bruce Allen will know he’ll get a good grade for it). For the record I think this is criminally low but I think he could fall as I don’t think the pre-draft process will be kind to him. I have questions about his athleticism. I think his straight-line speed is fine but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him run a bad 3-cone and test poorly in the explosion drills too. Which makes him a tricky projection as he played most of the time out of the slot in college and certainly had his most success there, but his traits say move him outside (where he struggled, especially with press). That’ll be on Gruden, which is convenient for Allen and his fondness for excuse-making.
78. Carolina Panthers: Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame - This is gonna be one of those draft day head-scratchers. Like most of you, I have Tillery rated higher than this, and if you’re drafting 2018 Tillery, you’re taking him higher than this. If you’re taking the guy who disappointed throughout the rest of his Notre Dame career, you’re probably taking him a little lower. But it also means you’re drafting a long, athletic guy who’s disruptive and explosive and still has plenty of upside. He’s not the greatest against the run or the most fluid athlete but his motor usually runs hot and most coaches want to work with effort guys. But where was he before 2018? That’s the rub, one-year wonders don’t have a great track record, and it’s like, last year I consistently mocked B.J. Hill and Nathan Shepherd in the second only to watch them both fall into the third, and I think both those guys were better prospects than Tillery.
79. Miami Dolphins: Zach Allen, DE/DT, Boston College - Again, for Miami it’s not so much about this year as it is about character and drive and work ethic. Allen’s the kind of guy who won’t shine during the pre-draft process (he did not have a good Senior Bowl) and it’ll hurt his draft stock, but put in the tape, you know? For a guy his size he’s got some really advanced pass-rush moves, he can set the edge without breaking a sweat, he racks up tons of plays through sheer effort. He joins first-rounder Christian Wilkins, FA signing Haloti Ngata and holdovers Vincent Taylor and Davon Godchaux to form the bones of a really good front, and that’s a start.
80. Baltimore Ravens (From Atlanta): Darrell Henderson, RB, Memphis - Henderson’s the #1 RB on my board, so obviously I love the value of the Ravens grabbing him here. And after he blows up the combine, I think more people will agree with me. Henderson’s electric, and if there’s one thing the Baltimore offensive backfield can use it’s someone electric with the ball in his hands... who’s not the quarterback. Gus, Dixon and even Collins are great but they’re all a little bit ploddy, their receivers are ploddy now that they’ve scuppered John Brown, even their tight ends are a little on the ploddy side. Jackson’s not, but one electric player can be contained with a team effort, the way the Chargers did in the playoffs. What the Ravens need is someone to punish those defenses, someone who’ll be around the edge and running down the sidelines while the defense is still swarming towards Jackson, someone who can hit a gap like lightning shot out of a... well, out of a backfield. You get the idea. The Ravens don’t have a guy like Henderson and they’re sorely lacking one, so they make a small trade up to grab him.
81. Cleveland Browns: Jaylon Ferguson, DE, Louisiana Tech - This isn’t just me lazily giving the character red-flag, second-chance guy to the Browns. For one, what character red-flag? A fight at a McDonald’s? Are you kidding? I used to work at a McDonald’s way back in the day and you know what we used to call the days when no one got in a fight? ‘Holidays’ (granted it was an all-night McDonald’s near the bars, but I digress). No, this is about where I had Ferguson going before he was uninvited from the combine (I refuse to call it a disinvite) and nothing’s gonna change about it now. He’s a productive guy but he lacks a lot of the athletic traits he’s gonna need to be successful in the pros. But now that Ogbah’s gone the Browns could use some depth and Ferguson fits the bill, he certainly knows how to get after the QB.
82. Minnesota Vikings: Tytus Howard, OT, Alabama State - It would be difficult for the Vikings to move on from Riley Reiff as of yet; cutting him would only save them $5M and leave $6.6M of dead cap on their salary cap and that’s just not a good way to do business. Next year they can save $7M with only $4.4M in dead cap and the year after it becomes $11.5M savings and $2.2M in dead cap. The point is, they’re almost surely waiting at least a year. So here’s a thought, why not draft an athletic freak at left tackle who just so happens to need a little seasoning so that when you’re ready to move on from Reiff, you’ve got someone waiting in the wings. Howard has everything you want from a left tackle except experience, he’s raw and needs time to learn. Minnesota gives him that opportunity. Of course everyone said the same thing about O’Neill last year and he had a great year, so you never know.
83. Kansas City (From Tennessee): Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State - Spagnuolo’s safeties are generally separated into strong and free rather than the hybrids that are so popular today. The free safety needs to be the rangy, single-high type while the strong safety must be good against he run and be able to stay with tight ends. Armani Watts and Daniel Sorenson cannot do that. Eric Berry can but his health is a question and there’s the very real possibility he might not even be on the team next year. Abram isn’t a perfect prospect (which is why he’s available in the third) but he projects the best as a Spagnuolo style safety and he’s got the most upside. He attacks the line of scrimmage like some sort of crazed banshee which admittedly leads to some overpursuit issues but he improved dramatically this year in that respect. Still happens, not gonna stop happening, but the highlight reel plays might make it worth it. Has some coverage struggles that seem to stem from his processing but has the traits to be able to do it and can already cover quite well vertically. Tight ends are unlikely to beat him up the seam. He’s got some straight-line wheels for a man his size. I could see the Chiefs being interested in Amani Hooker too but I think Abram’s gonna test as a far better athlete which will put him over the top.
84. Pittsburgh Steelers: Juan Thornhill, S, Virginia - As a former corner you would expect Thornhill to be good in coverage and you’d be right. He can easily stay with tight ends and does plenty well against slot receivers too. He’s also got maybe the best ball skills of any safety in the class. Of course the major concern with these safety conversions is how will they hold up against the run, and while I wouldn’t call it a major strength of Thornhill’s, it wasn’t bad either. He got downhill quickly and was even played in the box from time to time. Almost never out of control. He’s got a chance to play right away in Pittsburgh’s big nickel package and if Morgan Burnett leaves, he might get to play a lot of minutes too.
85. Seattle Seahawks: Khalen Saunders, DT, Western Illinois - Seattle absolutely needs another body to throw into the mix on the interior of their defensive line, and preferably one who projects as a plus against the run. Jarran Reed is the one guy on their roster you can say is a sure-fire starter, the rest is just hope. Poona Ford looked promising but he was a UDFA only last year. Nazair Jones took a step back. Shamar Stephen struggled mightily and is unlikely to be brought back. I absolutely expect Seattle to bring in a guy or two here, and they tend to do it successfully on the cheap, either in FA (Rubin, McDaniel, Poona) or with day two picks in the draft (Mebane in the 3rd, Reed in the second). Yeah, everyone knows Saunders from the backflip - good brand management - but it speaks to how great an athlete his is in a body that size. He’s got a low center of gravity, great strength, and is almost unbelievably flexible for a man his size. That said, like a lot of smaller school guys, he dominated through his physical gifts alone and has a lot of technique work to do. But at some point (usually the 2nd-4th rounds) you take the physically gifted guys and trust your coaches to do the rest.
86. Atlanta Falcons (From Baltimore): Connor McGovern, OG/C, Penn State - Josh Allen I get... Josh is a generic enough name, and Allen has to be like what, in the top ten most common as far as English last names go? It’s up there, anyway, I bet we all know someone with the last name Allen. So the fact that there’s a Josh Allen in this year’s draft after a Josh Allen in last year’s draft... well it’s a little odd, a huh of a thing, but not generally the sort of thing you’d waste any time writing about (generally). But two guys named Connor McGovern? That’s a little stranger, a little more cosmic. I don’t know a single person named Connor personally and no McGoverns either. And yet we get two guys with the same name only three years apart, and not only that but they play the same position. That’s weird, cosmic stuff man, weird cosmic stuff. I suppose it’s a good sign for Atlanta that the original Connor McGregor started to show out this year with the Broncos once Paradis got hurt, given their cosmic connection. This McGovern is a perfect fit in Atlanta’s ZBS (provided they keep it with Dirk), can start right away at guard (pegging a third-rounder as an immediate starter at guard is more realistic than say... pretty much any other position, this is a high-value pick), and then once Mack retires (he’s 33) he can slide over to center and man it for the better part of a decade. I think he’s being terribly underrated right now.
87. Houston Texans: Damien Harris, RB, Alabama - Whether the Lamar Miller Experience comes to an end this year or next year (my money’s on the latter), the Alfred Blue Reign Of Terror is almost certainly over. That makes Dont’a Foreman the #1 backup in Houston - and potentially the future, still - but can you count on it? I know science has come a long way and guys are overcoming achilles injuries better than they ever used to, but most of those guys aren’t running backs. In fact in a study of 95 NFL players completed around a year ago, there was no difference in postoperative performance at any position except running back and linebacker. Granted 95’s not a huge sample size, but there are only so many guys who have torn their achilles tendon in the NFL, and can you think of a RB who’s returned and been as good as he was pre-injury? Well, no, but that’s an even smaller sample size. Foreman will be a good test case. But I highly doubt the Texans want to run that test with no backup in place. Best case scenario Foreman heals, does like a 1-2 punch thing with Miller while Harris gets some run from the bench in preparation for taking over Miller’s role next year. Worst case scenario, Foreman doesn’t look like the same back, Miller is his meh self, and Harris is thrust into the starting lineup. Actually worst case is they all get hurt, but I’m trying to point out how a RB is a good idea for the Texans. I don’t think a lot of their fans will disagree.
88. Chicago Bears: Justice Hill, RB, Oklahoma State - Hear me out Bears fans, I went back and forth on this a ton before I decided on Hill and here’s why: he’d be an absolute terror, just a perfect fit and a handful for everyone to deal with on your roster and in your scheme. Of course the one knock on him is his size and that’s a legit concern, but it’s mitigated, I think, by his surprising abilities as a blocker. Let’s be honest, I’m fairly sure if he was 15 pounds heavier he’d be in the conversation for #1 RB. He’d be way above Jacobs on my board. Because when you look at the things he can do, he’s got some special skills. And I don’t know about you but give me the guy with the special skills over the meh guy with the right size, this is how steals are found. First of all, any RB in Chicago needs to be able to catch the ball and Hill does that easily, he’s right up there with any RB in the class. His lateral quickness is awe-inspiring, he’s got jukes on his jukes and seems to see three steps ahead of everyone else. Finding holes in Chicago’s zone scheme will be second-nature. Now he’s not going to make his living gaining a yard on third-and-one but he’ll be better than you expect the way Jamaal Charles was, he’s got a knack for finding the tiniest sliver in a defensive front (and in short yardage, those tiny slivers turn into long TDs). He’s tough as nails for his size too in the same way Phillip Lindsey was last year, he won’t run out of bounds, he gives great effort blocking when he doesn’t get the ball and in pass protection (seriously, gimme Hill over a lot of guys 30 pounds heavier), he can run inside and outside and I think in five years we’ll look back and wonder how the Bears were able to get Hill so late. And we’ll know the answer: ‘back then teams cared more about a running back’s weight’. It’s like QB height.
89. Detroit Lions (From Philadelphia): Joe Giles-Harris, LB, Duke - What’s the draft without a third-round Bob Quinn perceived reach? As fans, this is one of those picks where we start to get more and more excited as the picks come off the board and our guy are still available. For some people, that will be Oshane Ximines. For others, Lonnie Johnson, or Daylon Mack, or maybe Te’Von Coney at the same position is your bag. Maybe you want us to add a receiver and get excited when Parris Campbell, Greg Dortch or Terry McLaurin are still available. Maybe you’re just done with Stafford and want us to go Daniel Jones or Stidham or Grier or whatever. The point is, a lot of recognizable names usually fall into the third round. So you’re all excited, then they announce the pick. Then the subreddit blows up with angry posts. Sound familiar? Sound like Kenny Golladay? Or Kerryon Johnson? Or Dashawn Hand? You feel me, right? The picks we all hate at first tend to be Bob’s best picks. Give him a chance. Giles-Harris fits the mold of a Patricia-style linebacker. He’s a bigger guy and he’s stout against the run and he offers just enough in the passing game to be able to stay on the field all three downs, if that’s what the coaching staff wants. He’s smart and instinctive, a great tackler and his motor runs hot. He’s not a true sideline-to-sideline guy but neither is Dont’a Hightower, and he did just fine in the same scheme. My hunch is he’ll project as a Christian Jones replacement when we’ve got three linebackers in and he’ll shift inside when we want to unleash Davis. It’s a move I think can help us get the most out of him too.
90. Indianapolis Colts: Keelan Doss, WR, Cal-Davis - So they’ve added Tyrell Williams in free agency to help take the top off the defense along with T.Y. Hilton, they’ve got Deon Cain who can also get deep, they’ve got like twenty tight ends to work underneath and seams and such but what they don’t have is a guy who’s good at all of it. Doss can run underneath routes, you can move him into the slot, you can move him outside and he can win some catch-radius battles, he can even get deep if you need him to but I feel like the Colts will have that covered. And aside from his skill on the field, he’s the kind of guy that every FO/coaching staff will fall in love with. He’s a film junkie, all he wants to do is practice, he’s loyal to a fault (refused to transfer from Cal-Davis when it was clear he’d outgrown them), he’s a great blocker. He’s got the intangibles to go along with the tangibles and it pushes him up the board.
91. Dallas Cowboys: Josh Oliver, TE, San Jose State - I think his traits are going to appeal to the team who drafted Rico Gathers solely for his traits. Oliver’s got better traits, and he also has production at, you know, actually playing football. He’s also not afraid to mix it up as a blocker which is something you can’t say for a lot of these athletic tight ends, he gives effort through the whistle and uses good leverage. As a receiver he’s explosive, great down the seam, he’s got good hands and a preternatural knack for finding holes in a zone. He needs to work on his route-running and isn’t the best YAC guy but the former at least should come with more experience. Dallas nabbed Dalton Schultz in the fourth round last year but he’s definitely more of an in-line guy who does some receiving whereas Oliver projects as a better receiving tight end who can do some blocking. When they’re both in, it offers Dallas and new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore a multitude of possibilities. Blake Jarwin had a strong finish to the year but I don’t think the Cowboys will count on that happening again.
92. Houston Texans (From LA Chargers): Joe Jackson, DE, Miami - So I have the Texans simply tagging Clowney for another year though maybe they sign him long term, either way they could use some more depth on the edge cause they won’t be re-signing Mercilus after this season, I’m almost certain. And if they merely tag Clowney and don’t re-sign him next year that means they’re losing both he and Mercilus next season (and with Watson’s contract fast approaching they have to be judicious about who they give long-term deals to). They’ve also got Duke Ejiofor and Vic Beasley on the roster but the latter will almost assuredly be on a short-term contract whereas the former, while I really loved him in last year’s draft, it’s a little much at this point to say he’s gonna be able to step right in, given he only recorded a total of nine tackles this season. And even if he does pan out there would still be no one on the other side. Enter Jackson who’s an interesting evaluation. It’s pretty clear he’s lost some of his explosive qualities in an effort to bulk up, so I expect he’ll either lose the weight or take the lesser explosion for more ability to hold up against the run, etc... Cause even as a less explosive player, he’s still more explosive than a lot of other guys.
93. Tennessee Titans (From Kansas City): Taylor Rapp, S, Washington - We’re right in the midst of the part of the draft where BPA is taking over from need as the main reason guys get drafted. You see lots of strange things happen in the third and fourth round, lotta out of nowhere picks. Of course, sometimes BPA fits a semi-need and that’s how I’d classify this one. Rapp will definitely be atop the “Jeremiah’s Best Remaining” list on TV, or “Mel’s” if you’re a sadist, and while I have the Titans re-signing Vaccaro (and releasing Cyprien), it will definitely be on a team friendly deal they can move on from if, say, a rookie outperforms him. Maybe Rapp’s that rookie, maybe it’s second-year man Cruikshank if they decide to go with a more versatile safety pairing, but there’s not much else.
94. New York Jets (From New Orleans): Chuma Edoga, OT, USC - Edoga might be the most athletic tackle in the draft (personally I’ll take Bobby Evans but it’s close), his problem is the lack of junk in his trunk. He’s just so skinny and linear, he ends up getting pushed around, especially in the running game. Or at least, that’s how it looked on tape. Then he showed up at the Senior Bowl and he was noticeably bigger (weighed in at 303, up from 297), and then during the drills he held his own, even against the power guys. A lot of us went back to the tape, and on tape it doesn’t show up that way. Peculiar. So either he managed to get perceptibly stronger between USC’s last game and the Senior Bowl, added enough weight to make a difference (six pounds, while an improvement, doesn’t seem like enough), or someone he worked with during the pre-draft process taught him how to better anchor. Or, fourth possibility, he just got lucky. That one seems unlikely. Any way you shave it, at the very least he’s an athletic guy who can hold up in the passing game but might struggle to create any movement in the running game, or he’s the first guy and all of a sudden he can move guys too. And that last guy? He should have been a first-rounder.
95. Jacksonville Jaguars (From LA Rams): Jerome Washington, TE, Rutgers - This guy’s gonna vault up the boards once the world finally sees him. He’s basically been playing behind closed doors at Rutgers, under-utilized, not given the chance to show what he can really do. But oh those glimpses! First of all, while no one can compete with Hock as the best blocking tight end in the class, Washington comes the closest. He’s nasty, he hunts out guys to block on the second-level and plays through the whistle. Coaches will love him. But what sets him (and Hockenson) apart is his athleticism. He didn’t get a lot of chance to show it, but he’s got a lot of juice. He’s got the speed to separate from linebackers and the size to dominate corners and safeties. He snaps off his routes at the top far better than you’d expect for a guy with less experience doing so. He’ll drop a pass now and again but it looks like a concentration issue, his mitts are soft as pillows and he’s got great, quick feet. He’s almost the perfect TE prospect but for his lack of opportunity/production and some injuries in his past. He might actually go even higher than this.
96. Oakland Raiders (From New England via Cleveland): Daniel Jones, QB, Duke - Here’s the thing, Senior Bowl struggles aside, Daniel Jones is Gruden’s type of QB. He’ll be more successful in a system where he has to get the ball out quick, a short-passing game, like the west coast offense, for instance. He’s also an athletic guy and he looks the part. Gruden coached him in the Senior Bowl so he should have some insight into his mental makeup - though who knows if that’s a good thing. The insight might be, ‘this guy sucks’. And here’s the thing with QB value, it’s getting harder and harder to figure out what with the rookie QB stuff. If you’re not a first-rounder, where do you go? Will NFL FOs still spend 2nd and 3rd round picks on developmental guys, or will they simply draft the new guy in the 1st round once the old guy’s finished to maximize the time he’s on a rookie contract? I think some will do the latter, which means once Jones doesn’t go in the first, his drop could be precipitous. Of course the Raiders and especially Gruden might want to move on from Carr at some point in the future, we all know Gruden considers himself some sort of QB whisperer, I think they’d be one of the teams likely to take a chance on a guy who needs to sit for a little bit. And if it doesn’t work out? Well it was basically a 4th round pick. My legit biggest concern... is Daniel Jones too plain-ass a name for a star QB? Dan Jones? Can you think of another star QB with a more generic name? Brees, Mahomes, Roethlisberger, Jurgenson, Montana, Unitas, Manning, Bradshaw, Marino, Elway, Starr, Favre, Moon, Kosar, Mayfield, Namath, Stabler, Plunkett, Baugh, Van Brocklin, Rodgers with a D. Underrated aspect of a franchise QB, a name you can make your own. Tom Brady, Steve Young, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson are more common but they’re not Dan Jones. Jim Kelly probably comes the closest, but I’d put good money on there being 1.5 times as many Dan Joneses out there in the world than Jim Kellys. Hmmm... maybe not good money. Average money. Some money. Never mind no I wouldn’t. And don’t forget, Jim Kelly lost the big game four times. It gives a man pause.
97. Washington Redskins (Compensatory): Amani Hooker, S, Iowa - Hooker’s a tough evaluation cause he looks like he’s going to struggle athletically in the NFL but then he’s always around the ball, making plays, and against guys projected to be great successes at the next level. We know he’s a great leader and a playmaker, we know he can tackle and he’s instinctive in coverage. We also know he got to practice every day against T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant, and that cannot hurt. In the end I think this is about where he goes thought admittedly someone could fall in love with his intangibles and take him higher. The Redskins basically lost their entire safety group over the past couple of months (or they will have, once Clinton-Dix signs elsewhere). Ok they still have Apke, Nicholson and Everett but Apke finished the year injured (and maybe... probably sucks), Nicholson can’t stay out of trouble with the law, and Everett doesn’t seem to be trusted by the coaches, for whatever reason. He plays well when he plays. Next to Hooker, well it might not be Clinton-Dix and Swearinger but it’s a start.
98. Atlanta Falcons (From New England - Compensatory): Kaleb McGary, OT, Washington - For this year Veldheer and Schraeder and I suppose Sambrello can duke it out to start at right tackle. Maybe Schrader rediscovers his form from a year ago, maybe Veldheer’s still got something left in the tank. McGary is the tackle of the future, he’s got a great athletic profile and just needs to fine tune some of his technique. But who knows? Brian O’Neill needed more work than McGary does and he played a lot for the Vikings last year. If it turns out McGary can step into the starting lineup then Atlanta can move on from Veldheer and/or Schraeder and free up some cap space.
99. Los Angeles Rams (Compensatory): Lonnie Johnson Jr., CB, Kentucky - I haven’t quite bought into the breathless Lonnie Johnson post-Senior Bowl hype. Is he a solid player with upside? Sure. I like a lot of his traits. But there’s a lot not to like too. He’s not a playmaker, or at least he hasn’t shown it in college if he is. He’s a good athlete for his size but I don’t think he’s a great one, he’s got some tightness in his hips and he’s grabby. I liked him as a project guy before the Senior Bowl but I didn’t expect his hype to get out of control like this. I like to think NFL guys won’t be so swayed. But at this point he’s not a bad pick, especially for the Rams. After Talib and Peters there’s not much at CB. Pretty much nothing, in fact. Sure, they have bigger needs, but you’re generally not filling needs at the tail end of the third round, your taking the best players on your board. Very few guys drafted in this range are immediate contributors.
100. Carolina Panthers (Compensatory): Oli Udoh, OT, Elon - So they’re losing Darryl Williams in free agency and Matt Kalil sucks but he’ll probably be around for at least another year. I expect Moton to step in for Williams at right tackle which would allow Udoh to be a swing tackle for a year before preferably taking over for Kalil who hopefully follows his brother out the door ASAP, that guy’s just stealing money at this point. Udoh’s got everything you want physically from a tackle but like most small school guys he needs lots of technique work. Worst case if he struggles learning that technique he can flex in at guard. Hell maybe he plays for a year inside before moving outside, the Panthers could use some help there too.
101. Los Angeles Rams (Compensatory): Vosean Joseph, LB, Florida - Almost assuredly the fastest linebacker in the draft (whether he tests like it or not) Joseph should go a long way towards overcoming the loss of Mark Barron. In fact if Joseph can reign in some of his more aggressive tendencies he could make Rams fans forget all about him (not that Barron’s been great of late, but there was a time when he was a boon to the Rams D). I have a feeling Joseph’s gonna be this year’s Shaquem Griffin or Darron Lee, the linebacker who runs like a DB. That athleticism is the basis for his coverage ability but he’ll have to learn better technique at the next level, but there’s nothing to say he can’t. Working hard isn’t an issue. His speed also allows him to avoid blockers and scream into the backfield or even around the edge to meet a runner head on. At his size (~230 during the 2018 season) he will struggle to get off blocks if he gets latched onto, but he has a knack for avoiding would-be blockers. As a tackler he’s a punisher pure and simple but he also wraps up. He plays like his hair’s on fire. And therein, oftentimes, lies the problem. Talk to a Gators fan and they’ll give you mixed reviews on Joseph. Most of them love his attitude and recognize his physical traits, but most of them also point to an infuriating number of overrun tackles, overrun gaps, and a disconcerting number of times he was made to look silly by savvy route-runners who understood how to use Joseph’s over-aggressiveness against him. He needs to play more calmly, but if you calm him down you risk taking away some of the things that make him great. But if you’re a coaching staff I think you have to try. Or maybe you can try and pack 15-20 pounds on him and hope it happens naturally, that he loses just enough of the speed - as he needs to slow down - but none of the attitude or mindset. I don’t know. But you don’t want to draft another Ernie Sims (sigh) or he won’t be long for the league.
102. Detroit Lions (From New England - Compensatory): Anthony Ratliff-Williams, WR, North Carolina - In what’s fast becoming an annual tradition, the Pats and Lions make another draft day trade. Two years ago the Pats traded up to grab Antonio Garcia while we fell down and nabbed Kenny Golladay. I like the way that one turned out. Last year we traded up to grab Kerryon Johnson while they traded down and down again to turn that pick into who knows, I can’t keep up with all those permutations. We also traded up to grab Da’Shawn Hand last year and since we gave them our third-rounder this year, I can’t say what they’ve done with it yet but I expect it will be convoluted and ridiculous. But we got two really good players trading up with the Pats and one in a trade-down, so know I think it’s kind of our draft-day good luck charm. Quinn has also proved adept at getting back any future picks he trades away (like a third-rounder this year), and I expect as we’ve already added a 2020 third-rounder through our trade with the Jets losing a fifth next year won’t hurt as much. I know there are bigger name wide receivers on the board than Ratliff-Williams. The Terrys Godwin and McLaurin, the bad-hands burner Emanuel Hall, the gazelle Antoine Wesley. There’s even a couple of highly-rated guys who project to the slot and could fill our biggest hole in Greg Dortch and Parris Campbell (and maybe Godwin). I really like all three of those guys. But that’s short-term thinking, and at this stage of the draft I think Quinn’s moved far beyond short-term thinking. Remember when he took Golladay in the third and we were all up in arms cause we didn’t need a WR, we had Jones and Tate and those guys were good. Remember Walker last year? Why did we need a safety? I don’t think anyone will dispute that we need a WR this year but we’ve already added Amendola in the slot via trade... we need to start looking beyond Marvin Jones. (Besides, look how many options there are for slot every year... aside from Amendola there was Beasley, Matthews, Cobb and Humphries in FA, Agholor available in a trade, all those guys I mentioned above available in the draft not to mention the ones already drafted like Isabella, and all the ones yet to come like Renfrew and Penny Hart and Lil’Jordan Humphrey. Filling the slot position isn’t difficult and my hunch is we try and do it cheaply... in fact I love Renfrew late). I look at Ratliff-Williams and it’s hard for me not to see Golladay. Not in play style, they’re very different, it’s more that circumstances have conspired to keep their true value under wraps. In Golladay’s case it was his circuitous path to Northern Illinois, a late growth spurt, the misconception that he was a possession receiver (it’s easy to underestimate his speed on tape). Quinn saw through all those things and found value. In Ratliff-Williams case it’s a late start at the position (he arrived at UNC as a QB), a terrible team with a terrible QB, the combine snub (yes!), a deep class. But here’s what clear about him: he’s a playmaker, both as a WR and a return guy. In fact he has some Dante Pettis to his game, not a crazy-elite athlete but a very good one with a preternatural understanding of angles and momentum and with excellent acceleration, he has the potential to be a YAC monster like Tate. He’s got very good hands though he is prone to a concentration drop now and again, but watch him go up and fight for it with a DB. And he’s a tenacious blocker, he gets after it, you know that’s gonna appeal to our FO. Admittedly this is showing my bias, I think he’s one of the most underrated guys I’ve watched over the past three years or so, I can only hope he lasts this long. Someone’s gonna see what I see, I can only hope it’s Quinn (like it was last year with Kerryon).
103. Baltimore Ravens (Compensatory): Greg Dortch, WR, Wake Forest - So they lost John Brown but as holdovers have Crabtree and Snead, and they’ve added Devante Parker in the offseason but it’s pretty clear they still need to upgrade their receiver corps. The thing about Dortch is he’s something the Ravens don’t have, he’s a great slot guy but he can get open over the top too. He’s a replacement for Brown and then some (Brown could really only play outside), he can take that 5-yard-hitch and turn it into 20 yards, or that 5-yard-out and house it. With the additions of Dortch and Darrell Henderson, the Ravens have added lots of explosion to their offense which is gonna make it even more difficult to stop. Everyone says: “It was a gimmick last year but everyone will figure it out this year.” Yeah, OK, so you self-scout yourself and you adjust ahead of time. You want to crowd the box? We’ll hit you with Parker or Dortch over the top. You want to play flowing, assignment football? We’ll hit you with misdirections via Henderson or Dortch, who have the speed to take advantage of it. Yeah, this is what good teams do.






4TH ROUND:



104. Arizona Cardinals: Daylon Mack, DT, Texas A&M - It’s pretty clear how much NFL teams take a step back on the night between day 2 and day 3. All Friday night there’s the droppers, when is so-and-so gonna be picked, I can’t believe this is happening, you get the idea. The way I see it, these teams get tunnel vision, they have their guys that they’ve scouted and put a grade on them and when someone falls it just... it doesn’t compute. What’s wrong with him? Is there something we don’t know? Well we’ve only got 5-10 minutes here let’s play it safe and pick our guy. Then they take a break and the GM can huddle with his scouts and say ‘what’s going on here?,’ and for the most part I think they all decide the same thing: it just happens sometimes. That’s why you’ll see “Jeremiah’s best available” start to come off the board quickly in the fourth. Last year it was Ian Thomas, Da’Shawn Hand, Nyheim Hines, Dorance Armstrong... all those guys were in the top 3 rounds of most of our mocks. The fallers, this is where most of them start to go. The beginning of day 3 is a chance for a reset. It’s hard to find a better fit at 0/1-tech in an “attacking 3-4” than Daylon Mack. He’s got the explosion you don’t typically see from a guy weighing 320 pounds and his power’s off the charts. He’s not as beastly against the run as a Snacks Harrison or Vince Wilfork - even at 6’1 he can lose his leverage from time to time - but he’s vastly improved and as his technique comes around I could absolutely see him develop into one of the better interior run defenders in the league. Those are the kinda guys you take a chance on at the top of the fourth round. The Cardinals have plenty of guys with experience as ends in a 3-4: Pierre Olsen, Rodney Gunter, Nkemdiche, Corey Peters, but really only one guy with experience in the middle, and he’s bounced around the league quite a bit (Vince Valentine). Mack will be a welcome addition.
105. San Francisco 49ers: Marquise Blair, S/CB, Utah - Will he SPARQ joy? That will be a question he has to answer at the combine/his pro day. He looks like he’ll test athletically the way the Niners like and he definitely has the length and honestly, he’s probably a CB conversion candidate for these cover-3 teams (like Tre Flowers and Tarvarius Moore last year). There are already rumors out there that Lynch likes him, he’s one of your classic ‘has everything you want physically’ guys but he ‘leaves something to be desired.’ You know, a typical fourth-rounder. If he didn’t leave anything to be desired he’d have gone 70 picks ago. But there’s upside too, he didn’t get locked into man very often but showed the ability to do so on the rare times he did, his tackling issues can probably be fixed with coaching (he needs to slow down, he’s an over-pursuer) and he’s the sort of nasty you want from a defender. I don’t know whether the 49ers will bring him in to compete with Colbert at the free safety spot or shift him over to CB like they did with Moore (my hunch: the former especially since they drafted Joejuan), but either way there’s a place for him, and this is where those kind of guys tend to start coming off the board.
106. San Francisco 49ers (From NY Jets): Ben Powers, OG, Oklahoma - The Niners staff would have worked closely with him during the Senior Bowl when Powers answered a lot of questions about himself. He didn’t face a lot of advanced rushers in the Big 12 (though he did in the title game) so it was nice to see him handle the counters his defensive teammates were throwing at him and it was nice to see his base was strong enough to handle bull-rushes. Those were two things that didn’t show so much in his tape cause the Big 12 lacks for guys who could really test him. The things we did know about him - he’s tough as nails yet cerebral, he uses his hands like a ten-year-vet - were already a checkmark in the ‘pros’ column. His showing at the Senior Bowl likely improved his grade by a round or two.
107. Cleveland Browns (From Oakland): Bobby Okereke, LB, Stanford - Core special-teamer who, in an ideal world, would take over Christian Kirksey’s weak-side linebacker spot. But it’s a lot to project a fourth-round pick as a starter and Kirksey is beloved both by his teammates and the community and given the character risks Dorsey has and will be bringing in, having a guy like Kirksey in the locker room might prove invaluable. So let’s just say Okereke’s BPA at a position that could use some competition, he’s adept darting through gaps and into the backfield, he has legit sideline-to-sideline range and unlike most chase linebackers, he can get off a block. Of course there’s a downside to flying around the field, he’s prone to over-pursuit and he’s also a little top-heavy which leaves him open to running back jukes, needs work as a tackler. But this is the sort of guy you find in the fourth round, they’ve either got the athletic profile but they’re missing some of the intangibles or vice versa. The ones who stick are the ones who sort it out.
108. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Daniel Wise, DT, Kansas - I really wanted to mock a QB to the Bucs here but I think as part of their ‘all-in’ on Jameis they won’t draft another one. It’s psychology, see, a little sleight of mind. The message is: ‘we are completely and totally committed to you.’ Shit who knows with Jameis it’ll probably work. So Bowles has made his way to town to implement his attacking defense and an attacking defense needs attacking iDLs and Wise is one of the best still available (in fact I think this might be considered somewhat of a draft day slide). He’s not gonna be an anchor against the run and he’s not the most powerful guy but with a year or two more in a pro weight room he ought to be able to hold his own. And anyway, that’s not why you’re drafting him. You’re drafting him for the way he can get into the backfield. He’s a penetrator and good value here.
109. Buffalo Bills (From NY Giants): David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State - Shady’s doesn’t have a lot of years left, they let go of Chris Ivory and while I like Marcus Murphy fine, there’s a reason he’s bounced around the league. Third and fourth round RBs are great value picks cause you can find every down starters; I’d much rather have Montgomery here than wherever it was Jacobs went (2,39). One thing I’ve learned from the exercise of doing this, I actually think RBs are going to go lower than we think. There’s just not as many openings as there used to be, and when there are, RB falls below other needs in terms of value. Then you get to the part of the draft where the value is and there’s lots of supply, pushing them down further. It should be a lesson in economics, anyway. Some people love Montgomery, I don’t, but I like him better than Jacobs for instance. I do like his contact balance the man’s hard to bring down and I think that will matter in Buffalo, I also like his pass-catching skills, I think his vision’s fine but I don’t love his decisions, he bounces it outside too frequently (product of his shitty line perhaps?) and he doesn’t have much long-speed, though I think long-speed’s overrated in running backs. Not the most explosive guy but shifty, could be a long-time starter in the league. I think he drops below some of the other guys cause of his athleticism, he’s not gonna test all that great and while I don’t think long-speed’s that important, if he runs a 4.6+ it’s definitely gonna affect his stock.
110. Chicago Bears (From Jacksonville): Michael Jordan, OG/C, Ohio State - Really needed another year of seasoning before he turned pro but it works out for both the Bears and Jordan as he won’t be expected to come in right away and start. Jordan’s footwork still needs a lot of work but the improvement he showed in 2018 is promising, and if he can get it sorted look out, he looks like he was designed in a lab to be an interior offensive lineman. 6’6, 310 with a nice bubble butt and thick legs, he’s got great lower body strength and excellent snap explosion, should have no problems anchoring against the NFL’s strongest defenders (and when he does it’s almost always due to his footwork). Has good quickness too. While the Bears don’t have a starting spot to offer him this year, they’re going to have one next year at right guard. They can’t keep paying Kyle Long his huge salary considering his injury issues and in 2020 they can get out from under it. Best to start developing his replacement now. And if Long gets hurt again, Jordan can be in the mix to replace him. Also, like I was gonna mock Michael Jordan anywhere but Chicago. It’s just nice that he happens to fit so well.
111. Cincinnati Bengals: Terry McLaurin, WR, Ohio State - We’ve well and truly reached the part of the draft where need is gonna be taking a backseat to BPA. Most teams aren’t filling needs in the fourth round and if they are, they’re doing it wrong (except at RB and iOL). That said, AJ Green will be 31 by season’s start and is in the last year of his contract. He’s also hurt as often as he’s healthy, hopefully his career’s not just gonna fade to an abrupt end like Calvin Johnson’s did. 3rd year breakout Tyler Boyd’s in the final year of his deal too and though it sounds like he wants to come back, you never know how it’ll go. Maybe he turns back into a pumpkin and Cincy lets him find his FA fortune somewhere else. After that there’s disappointing (but still young) John Ross and Cory Cole and Josh Malone and Alex Erickson and Auden Tate and you get the idea. McLaurin’s better than all those guys, he’s really showed out during the pre-draft process and Ohio State should be ashamed for misusing him so carelessly.
112. New England Patriots (From Detroit): Oshane Ximines, DE/OLB, Old Dominion - I am not a big believer in Oshane Ximines (clearly) but I can recognize the qualities in him that make him a good fit for the Pats. Or maybe it’s more true to say that if he goes to the Pats, he could very well be a success (true of a lot of guys). I think his arms will be on the shorter side eliminating him from the board of a lot of teams, I think he’ll have to be a Van Noy style stand up linebacker but the Pats take these guys and turn them into stand up linebackers all the time, your Vrabels and Ninkoviches and Bruschis. That’s who Ximines is, one of those guys. He’s strong and he’s quick and he’s a hard worker and in like four more years he’ll probably be Super Bowl MVP. I made myself sad.
113. New York Giants (From Buffalo): Nate Davis, OG, Charlotte - This will mark the second year that the Giants draft one of the small school winners along the offensive line from the Senior Bowl. Last year it was Will Hernandez at the top of the second, this year it’s Davis who wasn’t quite as dominant as Hernandez and has a strange, squatty stance that’s gonna ruin his knees in five or six years if he doesn’t get it sorted out. But it’s difficult for a man that size to have such a low center of gravity and leverage is the name of the game on the o-line and Davis has got it naturally.
114. Baltimore Ravens (From Denver): Malik Gant, S, Marshall - I’ve mentioned a number of times how the fourth round is about going after BPA more so than need which makes sense, you’ll be lucky to pluck immediate starters this far down the draft board. Baltimore is always drafting for depth on their defense (or at least they used to under Newsome) and while they have Tony Jefferson and the Honey Badger as starters and two former sixth rounders (DeShon Elliott & Chuck Clark) behind them as well as Anthony Levine hanging around, Gant is the kind of guy you make an exception for. He can play in the box but he also has the speed to cover, and it’s that versatility that will make him appealing (though I do agree he’s at his best when screaming through gaps against the run, it’s just not all he can do). He’s probably not the rangy, single-high safety every team in the league is looking for - those guys tend to go really high - but he can play deep some and he can play over the slot and he can blitz and he’s the kind of all-around weapon every team needs. And who knows, maybe it’s a sneakier need than it looks. Tony Jefferson didn’t play up to his contract, he could be gone sooner rather than later, Levine’s 31 and might be released this year, Clark’s more of the in the box, linebacker-y safeties that are so popular these days, and Elliott’s entirely unproven. In a year, safety might be a much bigger need than it appears to be now.
115. Philadelphia Eagles (From Green Bay): Trayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M - A little trade up from Philly here to get their guy. I’m a big Trayveon Williams fan, he actually reminds me a little of Kerryon Johnson from last year, not quite as explosive as Kerryon but better long-speed. While Kerryon holds his torso more upright, they have similar gaits, they look long legged, spindly almost, which allows them both to cover more ground than you think when you watch them. Williams put on a show for the Aggies this year I think he projects as the immediate #1 in Philly, provided his pass protection is up to snuff. He’s better than Clement, he’s better than Adams, and I doubt Ajayi will be coming back. He’s a real weapon in the passing game too. No more trying to jam the square peg Smallwood into the round hole of a legitimate NFL rushing attack. Just put Williams in and let him do it all.
116. Carolina Panthers: Sean Bunting, CB, Central Michigan - You generally can’t fix everything in one offseason and the Panthers will be heading into the season with some questions at CB. Second-rounder Donte Jackson proved to be a hit last year (until he hit the rookie wall) and Bradberry’s a good starter alongside him (though not much of a playmaker), but they don’t have much behind them. Bunting could really move up the charts throughout the pre-draft process. Physically he has everything you look for. Incredibly loose hips for a guy his size (6’1, 215), quick feet, good in coverage in both zone and man. He falls for the same reason every physically talented corner falls: he’s poor in run support, makes too many business decisions, his motor can run cold. He’s got one of the highest ceilings of anyone in the draft, but one of the lowest floors too. This is where you pick those guys.
117. Miami Dolphins: Dennis Daley, OT/OG, South Carolina - This is actually one of the few need/fit picks I’ve made in the 4th, the Dolphins lost Ja’Wuan James in the offseason and Daley profiles as someone who could have gone much sooner. He’s strong as an ox but there’s some concern about whether he can stay outside, he looks to have acceptable athleticism but it will be interesting to see how he looks in the combine drills. There was some concern about his arm length too but they came in at 33 3/4 at the Senior Bowl which is fine. Needs to work on his technique (especially his pad level) but has desired mentality (he gets after it) and appears to have the intelligence too. This could work out like gangbusters for Miami.
118. New Orleans Saints (From Atlanta via New England): Dawson Knox, TE, Mississippi - We know the Saints are not afraid to go for it, shit they’re almost pick-less through this exercise from the amount of times they’ve gone for it. They gave their 1st-Rounder away in the trade up with Green Bay last year to nab Marcus Davenport, their third-rounder away to the Jets in the deal to get Bridgewater as their backup (let’s call that one a loss) and their fourth-rounder away to the Giants to bring in Eli Apple (let’s call that one a win). So here they are, at it again, giving away next year’s third-round pick in an effort to get back into the fourth round of the draft so they can nab Knox. They literally have nothing at tight end after Ben Watson called it a day. Nope, never mind, that’s not literal at all. They figuratively have nothing at tight end after Ben Watson called it a day. Josh Hill, Dan Arnold, Garrett Griffin all still around, and I had them bring in Dwayne Allen as well. But no high-level talent. Until this. Knox was terribly under-used at Mississippi, but after watching the way fellow under-used tight end George Kittle tore up the league, I don’t think teams are gonna put as much stock into it. It’ll be the new hot thing, tight ends that didn’t do much in college. Those guys will be hot! As long as they test well.
119. Green Bay Packers (From Washington via Philadelphia and Green Bay): Mitch Hyatt, OG/OT, Clemson - So this was originally a pick that belonged to Washington, the one they traded to Green Bay in the deal for Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. The Packers then flipped it to Philly (in my scenario) for Nelson Agholor, only for the Eagles to trade it back to Green Bay to move up four spots. Circle of pick life. The Packers have actually been pretty great at the mid-round interior o-lineman, and Hyatt has more experience playing in big games than maybe any other o-lineman in the draft (57 starts, a lot of those against current NFL starters). He typically struggles against speed which is why I think the move inside will help, but he did improve in 2018 - he shut down Brian Burns this year - and looked a little bit quicker on the whole. But 3 years of struggles would give me pause. Well, if he does prove to have the feet to hold up on the edge then you’ve drafted a guy in the 4th with the ability to play all 5 spots on the line. Otherwise he’ll be fine flexing inside. There will also be concerns that he’s ‘maxed out’ as a prospect which is what causes him to drop. I kinda think that’s a ridiculous narrative - guys can always improve, even into their later years - but I do think it’s one NFL FO’s believe.
120. Cleveland Browns: Jalen Hurd, WR, Baylor - Someone’s gonna fall for his measurements and his swiss-army knife versatility despite some of his character risks. And yeah, it feels like something of a cop-out to continuously have that team be the Browns (re: character stuff), all I can go by is what Dorsey’s done in the past and he’s proven he doesn’t really give af about off-the-field stuff. And can you blame him? It keeps working out for him (the Chiefs were even able to get second and fourth round picks for Marcus Peters, one of the ones who didn’t work out). Tyreek, Kelce, Callaway looks good. We’ll see about Kareem Hunt but on talent alone we know he’s a stud. In fact this feels a lot like the Tyreek Hill pick. Obviously Hurd’s red flags aren’t flapping as frantically as Hill’s did, his issues are more attitude-based (well, and an underage drinking citation), but don’t be surprised if NFL FOs frown more upon quitting on your team in mid-season, as Hurd did at Tennessee, than they do any arrests. He’s gonna have a lot to answer for at the combine. Everything except for his actual ability and upside. I thought his transition from RB to WR went remarkably smoothly and he’s got all the gifts you could want from a developmental player. He’s basically Mike Evans’s size but with high-level history as a RB. That’s the kind of weapon FOs are gonna salivate over. As you might expect he’s great with the ball in his hands and everyone - even his critics - go on and on about his work ethic. Obviously needs work as a route-runner and perimeter blocker, but shows willingness to do so. He gets comped to what Cordarelle Patterson did in New England this year and I can totally see that, especially early in his career, though you’d hope he improved as a WR from there.
121. Minnesota Vikings: Keesean Johnson, WR, Fresno State - I think he’s the perfect fit on the Vikings offense, he doesn’t have as high a ceiling as some of the guys remaining but he’s got the highest floor and he catches everything. Literally everything. Vikings fans, think back to all those stalled drives due to Treadwell drops, you can kiss those goodbye. I wouldn’t want to draft Johnson as a potential #1 WR (though you never know) but as the third-option he’s perfect. He’ll get open thanks to the work Diggs and Thielen do (similar to Treadwell) but then he’ll reel the ball in. I think he works best out of the slot but you can play him outside, he’ll use his technique to get open. Not gonna beat anyone over the top though. He’s a high motor guy and a good blocker too for those times Dalvin Cook breaks through the line. As a Lions fans, I’m hoping you go Parris Campbell here instead.
122. Atlanta Falcons (From Tennessee Titans): Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State - Clearly we’ve entered the BPA portion of the draft as Atlanta certainly doesn’t have a crying need for a receiver but can’t pass on a guy like Campbell. And let’s be honest, both Mohamed Sanu and Julio Jones will be (or just turned) 30 by the time the season starts and both of their contracts run out after next year. It couldn’t hurt to start adding a little depth to the position, something the Falcons showed they were aware of when they added Calvin Ridley in the first round last year. Campbell’s a blazer and can replace the Taylor Gabriel component this offense was missing last year. He’s really only got one speed but that one speed is so dangerous some NFL team is gonna put it to use. Actually reminds me quite a bit of Ginn coming out. Both guys sometimes fought with the ball but were so electric once it got into their hands you lived with it. Ginn made a career out of his speed (and his hands improved over time). Maybe Campbell can do the same thing.
123. Pittsburgh Steelers: Dakota Allen, LB, Texas Tech - The Steelers need to add more coverage juice into their linebacker corps. It started with the signing of Jordan Hicks in FA, now the addition of Allen, a guy I think is gonna rise on draft boards once he tests. I love the way he shoots gaps and wraps up when he tackles, I think he’s a good cover man in both zone and man, I like his football IQ and for a coverage linebacker, I love that he’s seen thousands more passes than most (exaggeration for effect). This might be his floor by the time April rolls around, there aren’t a lot of inside linebackers in this class who can cover and hold up against the run. He has some red flags in his past, getting kicked off the team before heading to JUCO to rehab his image, then he came back to the team. To me, that says a lot about the guy. He could have gone other places but he wanted to set it right at Tech. I think FOs will like it too. He’ll be a core special-teamer from day one and hopefully take over for Williams or Bostic sooner than later.
124. Baltimore Ravens: Jalen Jelks, DE/OLB, Oregon - I’m of the belief that guys with Jelks’s athletic ability and tenacious mindset have a place in the league and maybe deserve to drafted much higher, so you have to take a look into his tape to find out why he didn’t show out the way you’d expect, and it becomes immediately apparent that he was miscast as a 6’6, 245 pound defensive tackle too often in Oregon’s scheme. I’m assuming it was in an effort to get speed at every position on the field but it did Jelks no favors as a prospect - except to allow him to show his snap-to-snap toughness, tenacity and let him develop his hand work. But he doesn’t have anywhere near enough junk in his trunk to hold up inside and there’s far too much tape out there of him getting steamrolled. He’ll have to add some lower-body weight to hold the edge at the next level. On the occasions he did flex outside he looks to have really good bend, you wonder if he’d been able to spend 3-4 years perfecting the art of the edge if he wouldn’t be a first-round draft pick. He just hasn’t spent enough time learning on the edge yet, but that’s where he projects in the NFL. So this might be a steal and the fourth round is where you take these kinds of chances.
125. Seattle Seahawks: Isaiah Johnson, CB, Houston - It’s another draft cliche’ that the Seahawks will draft a long corner or safety in the mid-rounds and turn him into something useful, but it’s a cliche’ for the same reason that every cliche’ exists, because it rings true. From Richard Sherman and Byron Maxwell to Shaquil Griffin and Tre Flowers, Seattle has a knack for finding contributors at CB without having to use much draft capital, and while the latter two currently hold down the starting spots, they could use some depth (also, this is the 4th round where you’re not really drafting to fill needs anymore). Johnson is an ideal fit for teams running the cover-3 Seattle and Pete Carroll popularized, but as a receiver conversion is still learning the position and needs to improve as a tackler. Ideally he doesn’t get pressed into action too quickly as he could use some time learning, but everyone said the same thing about last year’s fifth-rounder Tre Flowers who was converting from safety and he played most of the year and was one of the league’s more promising rookies, so who knows. Either way, the Seahawks could use the depth.
126. Denver Broncos (From Houston): Jarrett Stidham, QB, Auburn - So they brought Flacco in. OK, I get it I guess. Actually no I don’t fucking get it what a terrible idea they should have gone after Foles! No, it’s fine. I have to remember Elway probably knows what he’s doing. Probably. So do they keep Keenum? It appears they’re shopping him, would anyone trade for him and that albatross of a contract ($21M)? Unlikely. So it’s cut or keep. Cut seems obvious but a $10M dead cap hit, yikes. Almost better just to keep him as a backup, he wouldn’t engender too much animosity from the fans sitting on the sidelines. I don’t know. My hunch is they cut him. And if they cut him that makes room for a rookie. I do think they’d have some interest in adding Lock in the first round but I don’t think they’ll trade up and even then I’m not sure. They’d be far better served waiting for next year. This, then, is not an attempt to draft your QB of the future. It’s an attempt to add depth at the position and if he turns into something more than depth, hey, great, struck gold. Or maybe he can turn into the Kubiak to John’s Elway and that’d be good for a fourth round pick too. And I hear NFL types are much higher on Stidham than most of us.
127. Chicago Bears: Jimmy Moreland, CB, James Madison - Oh, I really hate mocking my favorite mid-round CB prospect to a division rival but I’m trying to be legit here and there’s a number of reasons I think Moreland will appeal to them. First, GM Ryan Pace has no issues drafting guys from smaller schools. Tarik Cohen, Adam Shaheen, Joel Iyiegbuniwe, Bilal Nichols, Jordan Morgan, Deiondre’ Hall, DeAndre Houston-Carson, Daniel Braverman. Shit, it’s almost like he seeks them out, like it’s some sort of draft day doctrine they follow over there. Which of course means this pick make a lot of sense. The other reason it makes a lot of sense? Jimmy Fucking Moreland is talented. If he weighed fifteen more pounds he’d be a first-rounder. He might have the best ball skills in the class, he’s fluid and can stick with damn near anyone, he’s a talker who won’t back down from a fight... and he wins a lot of those fights against guys bigger than him. I don’t think he’ll ever be able to pack on the pounds needed to flex outside but as a slot corner I’m not sure there’s a better guy in the class. Hell if he just played at a bigger school I think he’d go higher, even at his current size. He would have showed out. And as I have the Bears losing Callahan they could use another slot corner (and though I have them signing P.J. Williams for cheap in FA, he’s probably another violation away from suspension, Moreland covers for that too).

128. Kansas City Chiefs (From Philadelphia via Miami): Antoine Wesley, WR, Texas Tech - After losing Chris Conley, Kelvin Benjamin and De’Anthony Thomas this offseason the Chiefs could stand to add some depth to their WR corps. In fact the signing of Benjamin goes to show that they’re on the lookout for a taller, catch-radius, chain-moving receiver to compliment their fleet of fleet-footed sports cars. Well Patrick Mahomes’s former teammate Antoine Wesley is that and more, as he also shows far more skill with the ball in his hands than most 6’5 guys. That makes him the sort of weapon that offensive geniuses like to exploit, and to be honest if he runs well I could see him going much higher than this.
129. Dallas Cowboys: Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma - While I have the Cowboys bringing Rod Smith back, that’s a decision that has to be made almost two months before the draft. I think if you’d told Jerry a guy like Rodney Anderson would be available in the fourth, he might not have re-signed him, but I certainly don’t think that will stop Jerry from taking a guy most people had as their #1 RB before the injury bug bit him again. And that’s the thing with Anderson right? Every time you’re ready to rely on him he goes off and gets hurt again. I don’t know if he’s injury-prone or unlucky but if the best ability is availability than Anderson’s got a long way to go. That said someone’s rolling the dice on him in the mid-rounds, he’s too talented when healthy and Jerry’s coming off the success of drafting Jaylon Smith higher than people thought he would go, and he’s right that there can be value in injured guys. Also, and something that goes under-noticed, Jerry loves the Big 12. I suppose that makes sense given where he makes his home but you can generally take a look at the Cowboys roster and there’s almost always 8-10 former Big Twelvers which is consistently the most in the league. For instance, a glance right now shows me Tavon Austin, Rico Gathers, Terrance Williams, Blake Jarwin, Geoff Swaim, Connor Williams, Dorance Armstrong, and David Irving all come from the big 12, and that doesn’t count recent stalwarts like Dan Bailey, Dez Bryant or DeMarco Murray. In fact since 2008 only once have the Cowboys made it through a draft without selecting at least one player from the Big 12 (2017) and oftentimes they choose two and three. Jerry’s influence might be waning in the Dallas FO, but he seems to have passed on his affinity for the conference that surrounds him to his son. I would almost be surprised if we came out of the draft and Anderson wasn’t a Cowboy.
130. Miami Dolphins (From Indianapolis via Kansas City): Blace Brown, CB, Troy - Brown is a traits guy and a bit of a projection, but as I’ve said multiple times through the course of this thing, the Dolphins aren’t drafting for this year. They seem fully aware of the project in front of them and if it takes Brown an extra year to become someone you’d feel safe starting, so be it. Finding a starter in the fourth round is a bonus anyway. I really loved Brown’s tape in 2017, he was one of my favorite sleeper CBs and I was really hoping he’d declare for the draft. But then he tore his ACL in Troy’s last regular-season game, had surgery in January 2018 and returned in time to play his senior season for the Trojans. It showed admirable tenacity that he was able to play in their first game, but I didn’t see the same guy in 2018 as the one I saw in 2017. Oh, he still produced and put up numbers, he just seemed to be missing some juice. You all know what I mean, we’ve all seen it. Sometimes it takes a little while to fully recover from a torn ACL. Because Blace Brown from 2017 had everything. He’s fast and loose-hipped, he’s got great instincts and even though he’s not the biggest guy in the world (6’0, 190) he’s not afraid to lay the wood. He’s also not one of these DBs who won’t make a play on the ball. When the pass comes his way he’s trying to pick it (he seems frustrated when he only knocks it away) and he often succeeds. When he has to make a play in the running game, he’s trying to strip the ball. He shows up in big games too, with a strip and the game-sealing pick in Troy’s upset of LSU. To me the question is, how much do you trust his 2017 tape over his 2018 tape? I like that there’s a reason he didn’t show out as much in 2018 (or in the Shrine game), and given his measurables and temperament, he’s gonna get a chance to develop somewhere. And if the Dolphins lose Xavien Howard they’re gonna have a real need, but even if he sticks around they could use some more depth.
131. Los Angeles Chargers: Sione Takitaki, LB, BYU - Despite the fact that the Chargers need linebackers, this isn’t a need pick. OK, that doesn’t really make sense. What I’m saying is generally you’re not relying on late fourth-rounders to plug holes and that’s not what the Chargers are doing here. They may be hopeful, but my hunch is the original plan, once they strike out in FA the way I have them doing (to be fair there are not a lot of options once Mosley goes back to Baltimore... one of the best is their own FA Perryman who I have leaving for more $$$), is to piecemeal a solution together the way they do every year. Most likely that means bringing in a FA I’m not bothering to mention like Malcolm Smith or Burfict or Te’o (heh). Uninspiring, Chargers fans, I know, but that’s how it is every year, for every team. You can’t fill all your holes, sometimes you just gotta spackle ‘em over til a more long-term solution can be found. Or, maybe, you can draft a guy late for depth and special teams and watch him turn into a far better player than anyone imagined. That’s the track Takitaki’s on, he’s really made vast improvements through his BYU career, from getting kicked off the team to being named team captain. He’s a great athlete and shows the potential to be great in coverage (he just needs more experience), extremely versatile (BYU played him all over the place) and he finished off his career in the Potato Bowl (really?) with 19 tackles and a sack.
132. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (From Kansas City via Buffalo): Mike Bell Jr., S, Fresno State - Once again I had to resist the idea of giving Tampa a QB, I just don’t think they’re gonna wanna play any mental games with Jameis. So let’s head to the defensive backfield and add another name to that collection of nobodies. I mean... well, shit, they are kinda nobodies, though I really like a couple of the guys they’ve got at CB (Carlton Davis, MJ Stewart) and Justin Evans and Jordan Whitehead, while not well known, improved as a duo throughout the year. But there’s no one behind them, the Bucs need the depth, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Bell takes over from either starter. He’s got a perfect safety build, literally looks like he was built in a lab, and he’s nasty too especially when he’s flying into the backfield. He wasn’t asked to cover a lot but looks like he ought to be able to handle almost everything, though I suspect a fast receiver could blow by him if he wasn’t careful. He’s not slow but he won’t be mistaken for a burner either.
133. New York Giants (From New Orleans): Emanuel Hall, WR, Missouri - His athleticism is gonna prove irresistible for NFL FOs and maybe it should because let’s face it, if Hall had better hands he’d be in the conversation for the first-round. Hell if he shows out during the pre-draft process it wouldn’t shock me to see him go in the second. He’s an athletic freak, one of the most explosive guys in the draft, regardless of position and while his hands are something of a major red flag, he did show marked improvement in 2018. If he can continue to show improvement - and more important if FOs think he can continue to show improvement - this is definitely the floor of his draft stock. He’s got a good attitude too, on top of all his athleticism, though as a blocker he simply gets a null grade. N/A. I’m not sure they ever once used him as a blocker (exaggeration for effect).
134. Los Angeles Rams: Ugo Amadi, S, Oregon - They lost Joyner through FA and while Amadi’s versatile enough to play almost anywhere in a defensive backfield, he’s gonna make his money as a safety who can flex into the slot. He’s an exceptionally explosive guy with great quickness and loose hips - it’s going to be very difficult to get open on him within the first five yards of a route. He’s not a blazer so the longer he has to carry a route he could get into trouble, but he’s not slow either. Let’s say his long-speed is average. Like a lot of great DBs he’s confident to the point of cocky, he’ll yap and chirp, he believes every ball is his. His size can sometimes limit him against the run, but it also allows him to knife through the trash on screens and wide plays, and once he arrives he won’t hesitate to be physical. But given a choice he’ll go for the pick over the big hit every time. The Rams won’t be drafting him to be a starter right away but they’ll be hopeful. Worst case he’s a demon on special teams.
135. New England Patriots: Dillon Mitchell, WR, Oregon - I expect he’ll be a bit of a late riser by draft day but not so much cause he tested through the roof, more so because people get a better chance to get a good look at him. He’s been back-burner’d for some reason (in a sense I think this is true of all but the super-hyped early entrants... the draft seasons starts off with events for seniors... the combine will be the first time we’ve seen a lot of these early entries in a couple of months). And though I already have the Pats drafting a WR (Deebo in the first), they’ve been known to double-down at WR within the same draft (Dobson & Boyce, Mitchell & Lucien, Tate & Edelman, Branch & Givens). Mitchell and Deebo are similar in that they give you a lot post-catch, but the Pats often draft guys with similar traits. In those aforementioned pairings only Tate & Edelman were truly disparate prospects. And again, this is the 4th round so most teams are looking more at fit than to fill a need, and I could see the Patriots finding lots of ways to use Mitchell’s excellent RAC skills. His problem has more to do with getting the ball in the first place, he’s a clunky, awkward catcher of the ball, but man, once it’s in his hands watch out.
136. Indianapolis Colts (Compensatory): Malik Reed, LB, Nevada - So here’s a guy I think is being slept on. He spent most of his career in Reno terrorizing opposing offenses as an edge rusher before switching to linebacker his senior year, which, since he’s only around 6’2 240 was a good decision for his career. As you might expect, he had some growing pains, but he’s only going to get better. Here are some things we know about him: explosive first step. Like, one of the quickest in the draft. Great bend too, but he doesn’t have the long arms, which is the end of his chances at edge. He’s an animal with active hands and he won’t stay blocked, he takes it as any insult that you’re even trying. Obviously his coverage still needs some work and his long-speed is a question. If he can show up at the combine and run something decent he has a chance to go anywhere, really, but if he runs slow he’ll likely get pigeon-holed as a 3-4 end and special-teamer and his stock will drop. Personally I think he’s plenty fast enough, clearly, and the Colts have already spent a ton of time meeting with him at the NFLPA Bowl and you can see why. They’re offseason’s about pressure, pressure, pressure, from every position on the field. My hunch is Reed’s rookie season plays out like a redshirt year and then he gets a real chance to make a difference. You don’t find a lot of guys with his rush skills at the LB spot, you just have to make sure he has enough of the LB part to play regularly. He’s a projection, but he’s one worth making.
137. Dallas Cowboys (Compensatory): Isaiah Buggs, DT, Alabama - The Cowboys are losing David Irving this offseason but more than that, they need to add depth to the interior of their defensive line and since they seem to hate to spend any resources to do so, this is around the time when they start to do it. Buggs is an enigma. He’s got some great tools - he’s built like a block of granite and essentially impossible to move, he’s tough, his hands should be registered as weapons and he puts up good numbers. But there are just some awful effort plays on tape which is shocking to see from an Alabama player. You find yourself surprised he ever sees the field again for Saban, and even the man himself has hinted at Buggs’s questionable work ethic which should raise a couple more red flags, but then he continued to play him too. What should we make of that? I suppose it has something to do with those tools I mentioned earlier. Well NFL teams will always believe they can coach the talent up in a guy while coaching out all the shit holding them back and Dallas needs to throw defensive tackles at their defensive tackle problem so here they are doing that.
138. Detroit Lions (From New York Giants - Compensatory): Dax Raymond, TE, Utah State - I’m not gonna lie, if the draft went like this for Detroit I would hate a pick (Winovich), be kinda meh on a few others (Savage, Giles-Harris) and really like a couple but wonder if we could have gotten them later (Hockenson, Ratliff-Williams). And then this one I would straight-up love with no reservations. The only reason Raymond lasts this long is cause of his age... which, shockingly, I can’t exactly pinpoint. The whole of the internet and I can’t get a fucking DOB. Whatever, I know he’s already served his 2-year LDS mission, I know when he announced he said he was three years older than most junior (which is why he declared), so I’m gonna go ahead and assume he’s 24 with an outside shot of being 25. Obviously that doesn’t leave as much of his career to contribute, which will cause him to slide I’m sure. But Bob Quinn has shown he won’t hesitate to draft older guys (Golladay was 24 when he was drafted and is shockingly only a couple of months younger than Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Sammy Watkins and Allen Robinson), and once Raymond tests he’s gonna be the apple of the mock community’s eye cause he should test through the roof. I’m especially excited to see him run the 40. My hunch is he’ll be in the 2nd round of some mocks. But don’t forget George Kittle. He had some of the best testing for a tight end ever and we knew he was an elite blocker and he still fell to the fifth round, despite a whole bunch of mockers predicting the third. Why? Low production mostly, apparently his coaches weren’t very nice about him, doesn’t matter. The point is he fell and I think Raymond will too. He’s not the blocker Kittle was but he may be even faster in a straight line and with him on one side of the line and Hockenson on the other... I’m salivating Lions fans. I’m actually having like a Pavlovian response here. I’d love for Raymond to end up a Lion.
139. Oakland Raiders (From Atlanta via New England - Compensatory): Elijah Holyfield, RB, Georgia - Sure, they re-signed Doug Martin and added Jay Ajayi in the offseason and they’ve got Richard and DeAndre Washington coming back not to mention Chris Warren (though rumor has it he’s ballooned up to 270 pounds while sitting out with an injury), but Holyfield strikes me as a Gruden type back and while all five of those guys could turn into contributors, all five could flame out and then what? Practice squad dregs from other rosters? Or, a small trade up to grab a guy many people have atop their RB lists? I think the latter.
140. Philadelphia Eagles (Compensatory): Diontae Johnson, WR, Toledo - A lot of people expect the Eagles to play more 12 personnel next year in an effort to get both Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert on the field more often. I agree with those people, which is why I had them move on from Nelson Agholor and add Riley Ridley earlier as another outside receiver. But Johnson offers something none of those other players do, big play ability. He’s an explosive play waiting to happen and one of the draft’s best returners too which the Eagles could use whether they decide to bring Sproles back or not. He hasn’t been anything more than steady in the return game for awhile now and certainly not explosive.



FULL OFFSEASON BY TEAM:

Arizona Cardinals:

FA/Trade:
Cole Beasley, WR
Daryl Williams, OT
Rodney Gunter, DE/DT
Derrick Morgan, DE/OLB
Brandon Marshall, LB
Jason Verrett, CB

Draft:
(1,1) Nick Bosa, DE/OLB, Ohio State
(2,33) Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State
(2,61) Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
(4,104) Daylon Mack, DT, Texas A&M

Atlanta Falcons:

FA/Trade:
Spencer Ware, RB
Tyler Kroft, TE
Jared Veldheer, OT
Bruce Irvin, DE/OLB
Grady Jarrett, DT
Danny Shelton, DT

Draft:
(1,14) Charles Omenihu, DE, Texas
(2,51) Amani Oruwariye, CB, Penn State
(3,86) Connor McGovern, OG/C, Penn State
(3,98) Kaleb McGary, OT, Washington
(4,122) Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State

Baltimore Ravens:

FA/Trade:
Devante Parker, WR
Quentin Spain, OG
Mike Iupati, OG
Terrell Suggs, DE/OLB
C.J. Mosley, LB
Tyrann Mathieu, S

Draft:
(1,22) Trayvon Mullen, CB, Clemson
(3,80) Darrell Henderson, RB, Memphis
(3,103) Greg Dortch, WR, Wake Forest
(4,114) Malik Gant, S, Marshall
(4,124) Jalen Jelks, DE/OLB, Oregon

Buffalo Bills:

FA/Trade:
Theo Riddick, RB
Devin Funchess, WR
Randall Cobb, WR
Cameron Brate, TE
Allen Bailey, DT
Everson Griffen, DE

Draft:
(1,9) Cody Ford, OT/OG, Oklahoma
(2,40) Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
(3,75) Elgton Jenkins, OG/C, Mississippi State
(4,109) David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State

Carolina Panthers:

FA/Trade:
Case Keenum, QB
T.J. Yeldon, RB
Pierre Garcon, WR
Aaron Lynch, DE
Lamarcus Joyner, S

Draft:
(1,16) Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson
(2,47) Erik McCoy, C, Texas A&M
(3,78) Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame
(3,100) Oli Udoh, OT, Elon
(4,116) Sean Bunting, CB, Central Michigan

Chicago Bears:

FA/Trade:
Bilal Powell, RB
Torrey Smith, WR
Vinny Curry, DE/OLB
P.J. Williams, CB
Adrian Amos, S

Draft
(3,88) Justice Hill, RB, Oklahoma State
(4,110) Michael Jordan, OG/C, Ohio State
(4,127) Jimmy Moreland, CB, James Madison

Cincinnati Bengals:

FA/Trade:
Ryan Tannehill, QB
C.J. Uzomah, TE
Tyler Eifert, TE
Mike Remmers, OT
K.J. Wright, LB
Preston Brown, LB

Draft:
(1,11) Devin White, LB, LSU
(2,42) Dru Samia, OG, Oklahoma
(3,73) Jamel Dean, CB, Auburn
(4,111) Terry McLaurin, WR, Ohio State

Cleveland Browns:

FA/Trade:
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB
Breshad Perriman, WR
Ty Nsekhe, OT
Trey Flowers, DE
Michael Brockers, DT

Draft:
(1,17) Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
(2,49) Gerald Willis, DT, Miami
(3,81) Jaylon Ferguson, DE, Louisiana Tech
(4,107) Bobby Okereke, LB, Stanford
(4,120) Jalen Hurd, WR, Baylor

Dallas Cowboys:

FA/Trade:
Rod Smith, RB
DeSean Jackson, WR
Tavon Austin, WR
Maxx Williams, TE
DeMarcus Lawrence, DE
Adrian Phillips, S

Draft:
(2,56) Greg Little, OT, Mississippi
(3,91) Josh Oliver, TE, San Jose State
(4,129) Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma
(4,137) Isaiah Buggs, DT, Alabama

Denver Broncos:

FA/Trade:
Joe Flacco, QB
Jeff Heuerman, TE
Billy Turner, OG/OT
Matt Paradis, C
Darqueze Dennard, CB

Draft:
(1,10) Jonah Williams, OT/OG, Alabama
(2,41) Mack Wilson, LB, Alabama
(3,72) Justin Layne, CB, Michigan State
(4,126) Jarrett Stidham, QB, Auburn

Detroit Lions:

FA/Trade:
Mike Davis, RB
Danny Amendola, WR
Brandon Graham, DE
Janoris Jenkins, CB
Eric Rowe, CB

Draft:
(1,15) T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
(2,43) Darnell Savage, S, Maryland
(3,68) Chase Winovich, DE/OLB, Michigan
(3,89) Joe Giles-Harris, LB, Duke
(3,102) Anthony Ratliff-Williams, WR, North Carolina
(4,136) Dax Raymond, TE Utah State

Green Bay Packers:

FA/Trade:
C.J. Beathard, QB
Javorius “Buck” Allen, RB
Nelson Agholor, WR
Cam Fleming, OT
Muhammad Wilkerson, DE
Earl Thomas, S

Draft:
(1,12) Rashan Gary, DE/DT, Michigan
(1,21) Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
(2,44) Montez Sweat, OLB/DE, Mississippi State
(4,119) Mitch Hyatt, OG/OT, Clemson

Houston Texans:

FA/Trade:
Jermaine Kearse, WR
Trent Brown, OT
Jadeveon Clowney, DE
Vic Beasley, Edge
Bryce Callahan, CB
Pierre Desir, CB
Kareem Jackson, CB/S

Draft:
(1,28) Dalton Risner, OT/OG, Kansas State
(1,30) Julian Love, CB, Notre Dame
(3,87) Damien Harris, RB, Alabama
(3,92) Joe Jackson, DE, Miami

Indianapolis Colts:

FA/Trade:
Latavius Murray, RB
Tyrell Williams, WR
Kevin White, WR
Za’Darius Smith, DE
Justin Houston, DE
Margus Hunt, DE/DT
Ronald Darby, CB
Steven Nelson, CB

Draft:
(1,26) Renell Wren, DT, Arizona State
(2,34) Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama
(2,59) Dre’Mont Jones, DT, Ohio State
(3,90) Keelan Doss, WR, Cal-Davis
(4,136) Malik Reed, LB, Nevada

Jacksonville Jaguars:

FA/Trade:
Corey Grant, RB
Jordan Howard, RB
Dion Jordan, DE
Shane Ray, DE/OLB

Draft:
(1,2) Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
(3,69) J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, WR, Stanford
(3,95) Jerome Washington, TE, Rutgers

Kansas City Chiefs:

FA/Trade:
Tevin Coleman, RB
Dee Ford, DE
David Irving, DT

Draft:
(1,19) Byron Murphy, CB, Washington
(3,65) D’Andre Walker, LB, Georgia
(3,83) Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State
(4,128) Antoine Wesley, WR, Texas Tech

Los Angeles Chargers:

FA/Trade:
Chris Conley, WR
Ja’Wuan James, OT
Malik Jackson, DT
Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, S

Draft:
(1,23) Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
(2,60) Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida
(4,131) Sione Takitaki, LB, BYU

Los Angeles Rams:

FA/Trade:
Rodger Saffold, OG
Ryan Groy, OG/C
Thomas Davis, LB
Ndamukong Suh, DT
Emmanuel Ogbah, DE
Clay Matthews III, DE/OLB

Draft:
(1,31) Bobby Evans, OT, Oklahoma
(3,99) Lonnie Johnson Jr., CB, Kentucky
(3,101) Vosean Joseph, LB, Florida
(4,134) Ugo Amadi, S, Oregon

Miami Dolphins:

FA/Trade:
Nick Foles, QB
Frank Gore, RB
Haloti Ngata, DT
Shaq Barrett, OLB

Draft:
(1,13) Christian Wilkins, DT/DE, Clemson
(2,53) Kelvin Harmon, WR, North Carolina State
(3,79) Zach Allen, DE/DT, Boston College
(4,117) Dennis Daley, OT/OG, South Carolina
(4,130) Blace Brown, CB, Troy

Minnesota Vikings:

FA/Trade:
Isaiah Crowell, RB
Cody Latimer, WR
Jesse James, TE
Sheldon Richardson, DT
Anthony Harris, S

Draft:
(1,18) Jachai Polite, LB, Florida
(2,50) Michael Dieter, OG/C, Wisconsin
(3,82) Tytus Howard, OT, Alabama State
(4,121) Keesean Johnson, WR, Fresno State

New England Patriots:

FA/Trade:
Carlos Hyde, RB
Golden Tate, WR
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR
Vernon Davis, TE
Corey Liuget, DT
Jason McCourty, CB

Draft:
(1,32) Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina
(2,58) Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
(3,70) Isaac Nauta, TE, Georgia
(3,74) L.J. Collier, DT/DE, TCU
(4,112) Oshane Ximines, DE/OLB, Old Dominion
(4,135) Dillon Mitchell, WR, Oregon

New Orleans Saints:

FA/Trade:
Mark Ingram, RB
Dwayne Allen, TE
Denzel Perryman, LB

Draft:
(2,61) Andy Isabella, WR, UMass
(4,118) Dawson Knox, TE, Mississippi

New York Giants:

FA/Trade:
Ricky Wagner, OT
Henry Anderson, DE/DT
Morris Claiborne, CB
Landon Collins, S

Draft:
(1,6) Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
(2,37) Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple
(4,113) Nate Davis, OG, Charlotte
(4,133) Emanuel Hall, WR, Missouri

New York Jets:

FA/Trade:
C.J. Anderson, RB
Adam Humphries, WR
Andrus Peat, OG
Mitch Morse, C
Bradley Roby, CB

Draft:
(1,8) D.K. Metcalf, WR, Mississippi
(2,39) Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
(3,94) Chuma Edoga, OT, USC

Oakland Raiders:

FA/Trade:
Tyrod Taylor, QB
Jay Ajayi, RB
Doug Martin, RB
Donte Moncrief, WR
Jared Cook, TE
Preston Smith, DE
Markus Golden, DE

Draft:
(1,4) Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
(1,24) Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
(1,27) Nasir Adderly, S, Delaware
(2,35) Devin Bush, LB, Michigan
(3,66) Mecole Hardman, WR, Georgia
(3,96) Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
(4,139) Elijah Holyfield, RB, Georgia

Philadelphia Eagles:

FA/Trade:
Phillip Dorsett, WR
Jordan Matthews, WR
Robert Quinn, DE
E.J. Gaines, CB

Draft:
(1,25) Yodny Cajuste, OT, West Virginia
(2,48) Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State
(2,57) Riley Ridley, WR, Georgia
(4,115) Trayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M
(4,140) Diontae Johnson, WR, Toledo

Pittsburgh Steelers:

FA/Trade:
Chris Ivory, RB
Ramon Foster, OG
Jordan Hicks, LB
Bashaud Breeland, CB

Draft:
(1,20) DeAndre Baker, CB, Georgia
(2,52) Christian Miller, OLB/DE, Alabama
(3,67) Kaden Smith, TE, Stanford
(3,84) Juan Thornhill, S, Virginia
(4,123) Dakota Allen, LB, Texas Tech

San Francisco 49ers:

FA/Trade:
Antonio Brown, WR
J.R. Sweezy, OG
Dante Fowler, DE/OLB
Kwon Alexander, LB

Draft:
(1,7) Brian Burns, DE/OLB, Florida State
(2,38) Joejuan Williams, CB, Vanderbilt
(2,46) Jace Sternberger, TE, Texas A&M
(4,105) Marquise Blair, S/CB, Utah
(4,106) Ben Powers, OG, Oklahoma

Seattle Seahawks:

FA/Trade:
Mike Wallace, WR
D.J. Fluker, OG
Ziggy Ansah, DE
Frank Clark, DE
Justin Coleman, CB

Draft:
(2,54) Germaine Pratt, LB, North Carolina State
(2,55) N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State
(3,76) Tyree Jackson, QB, Buffalo
(3,85) Khalen Saunders, DT, Western Illinois
(4,125) Isaiah Johnson, CB, Houston

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

FA/Trade:
Le’Veon Bell, RB
J.J. Nelson, WR
Donovan Smith, OT
Deone Bucannon, LB

Draft:
(1,5) Josh Allen, DE/OLB, Kentucky
(2,36) Chris Lindstrom, OG, Boston College
(2,64) David Edwards, OT, Wisconsin
(4,108) Daniel Wise, DT, Kansas
(4,132) Mike Bell, S, Fresno State

Tennessee Titans:

FA/Trade:
Chris Hogan, WR
James Carpenter, OG
Earl Mitchell, DT/NT
Anthony Barr, OLB/DE
Kenny Vaccaro, S

Draft:
(1,29) Garrett Bradbury, C/OG, North Carolina State
(2,45) Irv Smith Jr., TE, Alabama
(2,63) Anthony Nelson, DE, Iowa
(3,93) Taylor Rapp, S, Washington

Washington Redskins:

FA/Trade:
Teddy Bridgewater, QB
Adrian Peterson, RB
John Brown, WR
Tre Boston, S

Draft:
(1,3) Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
(3,77) A.J. Brown, WR, Mississippi
(3,97) Amani Hooker, S, Iowa