Emails, Rick Tyler, spokesman, Ted Cruz presidential campaign, March 30, 2015

From: Rick Tyler

Sent: Monday, March 30, 2015 2:17 PM

To: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)

Subject: Ted Cruz half of evangelical vote

 

1) Half of evangelicals vote:

Pew Forum’s U.S. Religious Landscape Survey says 26.3% of U.S. Adults are evangelical Christians.

The Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey says the number of Americans who were citizens of voting age in 2012 was ~215,081,000.

That math gives us ~57mm evangelicals who are citizens of voting age.

Pew Center analysis of the 2012 electorate says that 23% of the electorate were evangelicals.  There were right around 129mm votes cast.  So that’s ~30mm evangelical voters.

2) The 2000 vs 2004 numbers are just exit polls applied to the number of votes cast.

2000 exit polls say 21% of the ~105mm voters were evangelicals for ~22mm evangelical votes.  The same exits say Bush got 68% of that vote or ~15mm votes.

2004 exits say 21% of the ~122mm votes cast were evangelicals for ~26mm evangelical votes.  According to the exits, Bush got 78%, so ~20mm evangelical votes.

 

Rick Tyler

National Spokesperson

Cruz for President

On Mar 30, 2015, at 2:36 PM, Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin) <wgselby@statesman.com> wrote:

I’m not yet sure how this supports the claim. Unpack a bit more? Or feel free to be specific about how Sen. Cruz got to his conclusion about voting “today,” as he put it? Also, was he intending to limit his focus to white evangelicals?

 

...

W. Gardner Selby

Reporter / News

Austin American-Statesman

PolitiFact Texas

o 512.445.3644

e wgselby@statesman.com

Twitter: gardnerselby and http://www.twitter.com/politifacttexas

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From: Rick Tyler

Sent: Monday, March 30, 2015 2:54 PM

To: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)

Subject: Re: Ted Cruz half of evangelical vote

 

Pew data and census data get us 57 million evangelicals.

 

Pew center analysis in 2012 calculates 30 million participated in the 2012 election or "roughly half" of all eligible at 52.6%

 

Exit polls in 2000 show 22 million evangelicals voted or 38.6% - way less than "roughly half".

 

Exit polls in 2004 show 26 million evangelicals voted or 45.6% or "roughly half".

 

So in these thee cycles "roughly half" is "mostly true".

 

You can include me on press inquiries.

 

He did not mention race, you did.

 

Rick Tyler

National Spokesperson

Cruz for President