Emails, Michael New, visiting associate professor, Department of Economics, Ave Maria University, Sept. 1 and 9, 2015
9:57 p.m.
Sept. 1, 2015
Here is the information about where I obtained the data I used in this article.
Starting in 2012 Texas excluded Planned Parenthood clinics from the state family planning program.
Between 2011 and 2013 (the most recent year for which data is available) the pregnancy rate in Texas dropped from 82.9 to 81.1
Between 2011 and 2013 the number of abortions performed fell from 69431 to 61513.
The abortion rate (number of abortions per thousand women between ages 15-44) fell from 12.86 to 11.09 (calcuations mine)
I obtained data on the pregnancy rate. the number of abortions, and the number of women between 15-44 from the Texas Department of State Health Services. The links are below
http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/vstat/vs11/t14A.shtm
http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/vstat/vs13/t14a.aspx
Feel free to email me if you have any additional questions.
Thanks,
Michael New
Visiting Associate Professor
Department of Economics
Ave Maria University
5:32 p.m.
1) The original article I wrote appeared in The Washington Examiner (the link is below). LifeNews sometimes (with permission) reprints articles that offer a pro-life perspective. However, sometimes they change the headline. The headline they used was theirs (not mine).
The Texas Department of State Health Services does not explicitly collect data on unintended pregnancies. That said if the unintended pregnancy rate went up I would expect an increase in the abortion rate. If the unintended pregnancy went up and the abortion rate did *not* go up. I would expect an increase in the birthrate (since more pregnancies would be carried to term). Since neither the abortion rate went up, nor the unintended pregnancy rate increased -- it is safe to say that the unintended pregnancy rate did not increase.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/no-funding-for-planned-parenthood-no-problem/article/2570627
2) The Texas legislature made the decision to exclude Planned Parenthood clinics from the
state family planning program in the spring of 2012. There was litigation over this which was not resolved until the end of 2012. I am not sure if Planned Parenthood clinics were still receiving state funding while litigation was pending.
Based on my reading, the funding cutoff only took effect in 2013. As such, I think comparing data from 2011 to 2013 is reasonable.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/31/texas-planned-parenthood_n_2389487.html
3) As a social scientist I always am interested in more data. The more data we have, the more reliable the findings (usually). That said the short term data that we have from the Texas Department of State Health Services indicates that excluding Planned Parenthood clinics from the state family planning program did not cause short term public health problems (more abortions or more unintended pregnancies) that some predicted.
Keep in mind, I was writing an editorial -- not an article suitable for a peer reviewed journal. More public health data from Texas will give us a better idea of the consequences of defunding Planned Parenthood.
Additionally, other states are moving to defund Planned Parenthood and as a social scientist I will pay attention to public health data from these states (and Texas).
4) There is a nice body of social science research which shows that efforts to promote contraceptive use are ineffective at reducing either abortions or unintended pregnancies. Some of these studies are mentioned in my article, but I could send you a more comprehensive literature review if you want.
...
Michael New
Visiting Associate Professor
Department of Economics
Ave Maria University
On Tue, Sep 8, 2015 at 6:50 PM, Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin) <wgselby@statesman.com> wrote:
You wrote earlier the “short-term data that we have from the Texas Department of State Health Services indicates that excluding Planned Parenthood clinics from the state family planning program did not cause short-term public health problems (more abortions or more unintended pregnancies) than some predicted.”
Is there data showing the 2011 actions, which took effect in 2013, drove down unintended pregnancies and abortions? That is the claim we are checking.
To this moment, also, I’m not seeing data on unintended pregnancies past 2011. Guidance?
Thanks again.
g.
10:51 a.m.
Sept. 9, 2015
Let's take a step back. On August 25th there was a tweet from Governor Abbott's Twitter Account which read “After Texas defunded Planned Parenthood, both the Unintended Pregnancy & Abortion Rates Dropped.” The tweet linked to a LifeNews.com article of mine which originally appeared in the Washington Examiner on August 24th.
We can look at these claims one by one.
1) Decline in the abortion rate
According to the Texas Department of State Health Services. The number of abortions fell from 69,431 to 61,513 between 2011 and 2013. Using population data on the number of Texas women between the ages of 15 to 44, I was able to calculate the state abortion rate. The abortion rate was 12.86 in 2011. It was 11.09 in 2013. It is clear based on data from the Texas Department of State Health Services that the abortion rate fell.
2) Decline in the unintended pregnancy rate
The Texas Department does not appear to collect annual data on unintended pregnancies. The Guttmacher Institute does. Unfortunately Guttmacher's most recent data comes from 2010 (before Texas defunded Planned Parenthood).
That said, we can make some reasonable inferences from existing Texas data on pregnancies and abortions.
A) If the unintended pregnancy rate went up, we would expect to see an increase in the number of abortions. A high percentage of unintended pregnancies end in abortion. Additionally unintended pregnancies are much more likely to end in abortion than intended pregnancies. However, the Texas abortion rate did not increase.
B) Now if unintended pregnancies went up *without* an increase in abortion, we would expect to see an increase in the birthrate (since there would be more pregnancies being carried to term). Data from the Texas Department of State Health Services indicates that between 2011 and 2013 the birth rate declined from 82.9 to 81.1.
C) I can think of only one scenario where the unintended pregnancy rate would go up with no corresponding increase in either abortions or births. There would have to be a sudden decline in *intended* pregnancies coupled with a sudden (and simultaneous) increase in the percentage of unintended pregnancies carried to term. I think that this scenario is very unlikely. Intended pregnancy rates tend to be stable from year to year. The same goes for the percentage of unintended pregnancies carried to term
Based on the existing data, I cannot tell you if defunding Planned Parenthood *caused* declines in the abortion rate and the unintended pregnancy rate. That would require more data from more years and (preferably) more states. That said, Governor Abbott's tweet did not say that defunding Planned Parenthood *caused* these declines. His tweet said the abortion rate and the unintended pregnancy rate declined *after* Planned Parenthood was defunded.
We can be confident that the abortion rate went down. And based on the fact that both abortions and births declined, it is certainly reasonable to argue that the unintended pregnancy rate went down as well
Again, many media commentators including Dana Milbank and Amanda Marcotte have vocally argued that defunding Planned Parenthood will increase abortion rates and unintended pregnancy rates. The preliminary data from Texas indicates that has not been the case
If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to ask.
Michael New
Visiting Associate Professor
Department of Economics
Ave Maria University