GiveDirectly room for more funding - Oct 2016
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Millions (USD)
Notes
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Available and expected funds
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Funding on hand as of July 201766
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Additional funding committed to UBI Aug - Sept
9.5
What was already committed for basic income in Aug and Sept
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Additional funding expected to be raised for UBI Oct - Feb
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Excluding GW recommendation
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Retail funding expected excluding all GW donors through August 2017
15.8
Rough estimate
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Additional funding from GiveWell donors who do not precisely follow GiveWell's recommendations
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Total funding ex-GW103.3
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GD's highest priority plans through Feb 2017
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Basic income guarantee30
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Partnerships funding14
This is what GiveDirecty holds leftover from the Good Ventures $25m grant. It is possible that GiveDirectly could spend more than this on partnerships in 2017, if it had enough funding to do so and multiple partnership discussions were successful.
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Fundraising budget8.5
This is a budget for the next three years of fundraising activities
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Salary reserves2
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Retail transfers allocated through Feb 201729
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Total high priority spending83.5
Note that this does not include any funding for standard cash transfers in 2017
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Fundraising for standard cash transfers in 2017 - various scenarios
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Guess: ~2 teams, transferring $5m/team, only transfer $1 million in Rwanda
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Perhaps up to a ~50% reduction in staff for standard cash transfer campaigns. This would cause a reduction in efficiency.
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Guess: 2.5 teams transferring ~$8m/team20
Perhaps up to a ~33% reduction in staff for standard cash transfer campaigns
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2.5 teams transferring $12m/team30
Perhaps a small reduction in staff for standard cash transfer campaigns. Would take half a year to scale back up to the same size from this loss.
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3 teams transferring $12m/team36
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4 teams transferring $12m/team48
2 full teams Ke, 1 full team Ug, .5 team Rw, .5 team somewhere (undecided)
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5.5 teams transferring $12m/team66
2 full teams Ke, 2 full team Ug, .5 team Rw, 1 full team somewhere (undecided). GiveDirectly believes it has 70-80% of success at doing this with enough funding next year; GiveWell guesses this is 50% chance
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10 teams transferring $12m/team120
GW guess at GD having a 20% chance of success (based on calculation below)
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11 teams transferring $12m/team132
If you assume GD's estimate of the scenario in which it has a 5% chance of success (last line) is correct, this is a rough calculation of where GD would have a 50% chance of success (see calc below)
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12 teams transferring $12m/team144
GW guess at GD having a 5% chance of success (based on intuition)
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17 teams transferring $12m/team204
If you assume GD's estimate of the scenario in which it has a 5% chance of success (last line) is correct, this is a rough calculation of where GD would have a 50% chance of success (see calc below)
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20 teams transferring $12m/team240
This is the scenario in which GD believes it only has a 5% chance of success
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Teams
Chance of success - GD assumptions
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205%
GiveDirectly guess
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5.575%
GiveDirectly guess
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Linear chance decrease per additional team
4.83%Calculation
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Teams at 50% chance of success10.7Calculation
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Teams at 20% chance of success16.9Calculation
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Teams
Chance of success - GW assumptions
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125%GiveWell guess
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5.550%GiveWell guess
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Linear chance decrease per additional team
6.92%Calculation
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Teams at 50% chance of success5.5Calculation
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Teams at 20% chance of success9.8Calculation
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