GiveWell's room for more funding analysis for the END Fund [2017]
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Template created by GiveWell and completed by the END Fund, except where otherwise noted
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Scope of analysisNotes
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Unit of analysis (full organization or program of a larger organization)The END Fund overall
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Analysis 'as of' dateAugust 31, 2017
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End date of the analysis: GiveWell's next allocation decisionNovember 30, 2018
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Date by which funds need to be recevied (or committed) for them to impact plans prior to GiveWell's next funding allocationJune 30, 2018
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Funds on handAmountNotes
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Funds in the bank for The END Fund overall as of August 31, 2017$11,907,776
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Of funds in the bank for The END Fund overall, amount committed to future activities$10,879,669The END Fund notes that this includes both "disbursements to implementing partners and other operating expenses inclusive of salaries."
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Of funds in the bank for The END Fund overall, funds held in reserve$0Funds in reserve are funds that are not expected to be spent unless there is a major revenue shortfall
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Uncommitted, unreserved funds in the bank$1,028,107Calculation
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Projected revenueValue from same period in previous yearAre there any reasons why last year's revenue is not a reasonable projection for next year (ignoring variation in GiveWell-influenced funding)?Projection (before GiveWell's 2017 recommendation)Notes
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Total revenue for The END Fund overall, between September 1, 2016 and June 30, 2017$16,616,043$18,200,000
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Total GiveWell-influenced funding that reached the organization between September 1, 2016 and June 30, 2017$5,309,117--From GiveWell's internal donation records
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Projected revenue from donors who are not influenced by GiveWell's research, between August 31, 2017 and June 30, 2018$11,306,926-$18,200,000The END Fund notes, "As of November 2017, the END Fund has received funding and pledges for $18.2 million in 2017, $16.4 million in 2018, and $26.8 million in [2019]." (Note that $26.8 million was noted as for 2020, but we have assumed that the END Fund intended to write 2019.)
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Funding held by GiveWell as of August 31, 2017 for supporting The END Fund overall--$32,000From GiveWell's internal donation records
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Projected revenue from donors who give based on GiveWell's top charity list, but do not follow our recommendation for marginal funding, between August 31, 2017 and June 30, 2018$309,117$309,117GiveWell maintains both a list of all top charities that meet our criteria and a recommendation for which charity or charities to give to to maximize the impact of additional donations, given cost-effectiveness of remaining funding gaps.
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Bottom line
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'Baseline' funding pot for The END Fund overall to allocate by June 30, 2018$19,569,224
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Revenue projection for year to June 30, 2019 (by GiveWell)$26,000,000The END Fund notes, "As of November 2017, the END Fund has received funding and pledges for $18.2 million in 2017, $16.4 million in 2018, and $26.8 million in [2019]." (Note that $26.8 million was noted as for 2020, but we have assumed that the END Fund intended to write 2019.) The END Fund told us that it's fundraising goal for 2018 is $26 million, which is believes is realistic given existing pledges of $16.4 million.
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Revenue projection for year to June 30, 2020 (by GiveWell)$30,000,000See above. With $26.8 million in pledges, we have arbitrarily increased the total to account for revenue that has not yet been pledged.
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Total revenue projection for three years$74,509,117
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