Monopoly Politics 2014 Projections
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ABDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACAD
1
Projected National Democratic %Projected National Incumbency BumpRepublican205
Safe Republican:
199
Safe Democratic:
151
If All Seats Open:
2
50%4.50%Democratic163
Likely Republican:
14
Likely Democratic:
14Republican240
3
No Projection
67
Lean Republican:
15
Lean Democratic:
17
Democratic
195
4
Toss Up (Slight R):
7
Toss Up (Slight D):
18
5
Total R:235Total D:200
6
7
StateCDIncumbentPartyYear Elected2012 Adjustor2010 AdjustorProjected D %2014 Projections (FairVote)2014 Projections (If Open Seat)2014 Projections (Competition Ratings)D Partisanship 2012D Partisanship 2012 + Tilt2012 Two Party MOV2012 2-Party Winning PercentageAdjusted 2012 MOV2010 Two Party MOV2010 District PartisanshipPart. Margin Change RedistrictingAdjusted 2010 MOV2012 Adjusted Two Party D %2010 Adjusted Two Party D %Candidate Influence D 2012Candidate Influence 2012Performance Over Average Candidate 2012Candidate Influence D 2010Candidate Influence 2010Performance Over Average Candidate 2010Average POAC
8
Alabama1Byrne, Bradley(R)2013834.2%RRSafe R35.9%35.9%41.3%70.7%50.3%24.8%-11.0%11.0%6.5%6.5%
9
Alabama2Roby, Martha(R)20104638.2%RRSafe R34.8%34.8%27.3%63.7%31.3%2.2%32.9%3.8%8.8%34.3%45.6%-0.5%0.5%-4.0%10.8%-10.8%-15.3%-9.7%
10
Alabama3Rogers, Mike D.(R)20024436.1%RRSafe R35.3%35.3%28.2%64.1%32.2%19.0%39.9%-9.1%20.5%33.9%39.7%-1.4%1.4%-3.1%4.4%-4.4%-8.9%-6.0%
11
Alabama4Aderholt, Rob(R)19964421.8%RRSafe R22.7%22.7%48.1%74.1%52.1%100.0%19.9%5.6%86.8%23.9%0.0%1.3%-1.3%-5.8%-4.5%4.5%0.0%-2.9%
12
Alabama5Brooks, Mo(R)20104535.5%RRSafe R33.6%33.6%30.0%65.0%34.0%15.9%34.9%-2.6%19.9%33.0%40.0%-0.6%0.6%-3.9%6.5%-6.5%-11.0%-7.4%
13
Alabama6
OPEN (Bachus, Spencer)
(R)19924423.3%RRSafe R23.3%23.3%42.6%71.3%46.6%100.0%19.9%6.8%85.6%26.7%0.0%3.4%-3.4%-7.9%-4.5%4.5%0.0%-4.0%
14
Alabama7Sewell, Terri(D)20101276.4%DDSafe D70.7%70.7%51.8%75.9%47.8%44.8%68.9%3.7%65.1%73.9%82.5%3.2%3.2%-1.3%11.8%11.8%7.3%3.0%
15
AlaskaALYoung, Don(R)19734434.4%RRSafe R41.0%41.0%38.2%69.1%42.2%38.6%35.9%10.2%20.8%28.9%39.6%-12.1%12.1%7.6%-1.4%1.4%-3.1%2.3%
16
Arizona1Kirkpatrick, Ann(D)20122153.8%No projectionNo projectionLean D46.8%46.8%3.9%51.9%8.9%-6.4%41.4%10.8%12.0%54.4%56.0%7.6%7.6%3.1%9.2%9.2%4.7%3.1%
17
Arizona2Barber, Ron(D)2011.51752.9%No projectionNo projectionToss Up47.3%47.3%0.8%50.4%-3.2%7.1%43.4%7.9%23.9%48.4%62.0%1.1%1.1%-3.4%14.6%14.6%10.1%3.4%
18
Arizona3Grijalva, Raul(D)20021160.8%DDSafe D60.3%60.3%22.2%61.1%18.2%6.4%53.9%12.9%26.8%59.1%63.4%-1.2%-1.2%-5.7%3.1%3.1%-1.4%-3.6%
19
Arizona4Gosar, Paul(R)20104628.9%RRSafe R30.0%30.0%40.4%70.2%44.4%6.4%41.4%-22.8%39.7%27.8%30.2%-2.2%2.2%-2.3%0.2%-0.2%-4.7%-3.5%
20
Arizona5Salmon, Matt(R)2012532.4%RRSafe R33.5%33.5%34.4%67.2%47.4%26.3%-7.2%7.2%2.7%2.7%
21
Arizona6Schweikert, David(R)20104634.2%RRSafe R37.7%37.7%29.6%64.8%33.6%9.2%43.9%-12.4%32.0%33.2%34.0%-4.5%4.5%0.0%-3.7%3.7%-0.8%-0.4%
22
Arizona7OPEN (Pastor, Ed)(D)19911170.7%DDSafe D70.7%70.7%100.0%100.0%96.0%41.7%62.9%15.6%64.9%100.0%82.4%4.5%4.5%0.0%11.8%11.8%7.3%3.6%
23
Arizona8Franks, Trent(R)20024435.1%RRSafe R35.7%35.7%28.7%64.4%32.7%35.3%34.9%1.6%26.1%33.6%36.9%-2.0%2.0%-2.5%1.3%-1.3%-5.8%-4.1%
24
Arizona9Sinema, Kyrsten(D)2012251.0%No projectionNo projectionToss Up50.3%50.3%4.4%52.2%9.4%54.7%4.4%4.4%-0.1%-0.1%
25
Arkansas1Crawford, Rick(R)20104540.5%RRSafe R35.7%35.7%17.9%59.0%21.9%8.7%35.9%-0.4%10.5%39.0%44.8%3.3%-3.3%-7.8%9.0%-9.0%-13.5%-10.7%
26
Arkansas2OPEN (Griffin, Tim)(R)20104542.2%RRLikely R42.2%42.2%16.6%58.3%20.6%20.4%41.4%1.6%20.3%39.7%39.9%-2.5%2.5%-2.0%-2.3%2.3%-2.2%-2.1%
27
Arkansas3Womack, Steve(R)20104527.3%RRSafe R31.1%31.1%100.0%100.0%104.0%44.9%31.4%-0.5%46.8%0.0%26.6%-4.5%4.5%0.0%-4.5%4.5%0.0%0.0%
28
Arkansas4OPEN (Cotton, Tom)(R)2012535.1%RRSafe R35.1%35.1%23.7%61.9%36.7%31.6%-3.5%3.5%-1.0%-1.0%
29
California1LaMalfa, Doug(R)2012539.4%RRSafe R39.9%39.9%14.8%57.4%27.8%36.1%-3.8%3.8%-0.7%-0.7%
30
California2Huffman, Jared(D)2012269.8%DDSafe D69.1%69.1%42.5%71.2%47.5%73.7%4.7%4.7%0.2%0.2%
31
California3Garamendi, John(D)20091153.7%No projectionNo projectionLean D53.7%53.7%8.5%54.2%4.5%21.7%62.4%-17.5%11.9%52.2%55.9%-1.4%-1.4%-5.9%2.3%2.3%-2.2%-4.1%
32
California4McClintock, Tom(R)20084436.6%RRSafe R38.9%38.9%22.2%61.1%26.2%32.2%41.4%-5.0%29.6%36.9%35.2%-2.0%2.0%-2.5%-3.7%3.7%-0.8%-1.7%
33
California5Thompson, Mike(D)19981173.3%DDSafe D69.2%69.2%48.9%74.5%44.9%33.8%63.4%11.5%53.0%72.5%76.5%3.3%3.3%-1.2%7.3%7.3%2.8%0.8%
34
California6Matsui, Doris(D)20051174.4%DDSafe D68.5%68.5%50.1%75.1%46.1%48.1%67.4%2.2%57.8%73.1%78.9%4.6%4.6%0.1%10.4%10.4%5.9%3.0%
35
California7Bera, Ami(D)2012351.4%No projectionNo projectionToss Up50.1%50.1%3.4%51.7%17.4%58.7%8.6%8.6%4.1%4.1%
36
California8Cook, Paul(R)2012540.5%RRSafe R41.1%41.1%100.0%100.0%113.0%0.0%-4.5%4.5%0.0%0.0%
37
California9McNerney, Jerry(D)20061156.2%DDLikely D56.9%56.9%11.1%55.6%7.1%1.2%51.4%11.0%19.8%53.6%59.9%-3.4%-3.4%-7.9%3.0%3.0%-1.5%-4.7%
38
California10Denham, Jeff(R)20104544.5%No projectionNo projectionLean R49.9%49.9%5.4%52.7%9.4%29.5%43.4%13.0%17.9%45.3%41.0%-4.6%4.6%0.1%-8.8%8.8%4.3%2.2%
39
California11
OPEN (Miller, George)
(D)19741166.9%DDSafe D66.9%66.9%39.5%69.7%35.5%36.5%68.9%-4.0%40.1%67.7%70.0%0.9%0.9%-3.6%3.2%3.2%-1.3%-2.5%
40
California12Pelosi, Nancy(D)19871185.2%DDSafe D83.9%83.9%70.2%85.1%66.2%68.2%82.9%1.9%77.8%83.1%88.9%-0.8%-0.8%-5.3%5.0%5.0%0.5%-2.4%
41
California13Lee, Barbara(D)19981192.0%DDSafe D87.3%87.3%100.0%100.0%96.0%77.3%85.4%3.8%88.8%100.0%94.4%4.5%4.5%0.0%7.1%7.1%2.6%1.3%
42
California14Speier, Jackie(D)2007.51178.5%DDSafe D73.4%73.4%57.8%78.9%53.8%54.7%71.4%4.0%66.3%76.9%83.1%3.5%3.5%-1.0%9.8%9.8%5.3%2.2%
43
California15Swalwell, Eric(D)2012367.9%DDSafe D67.2%67.2%100.0%100.0%114.0%100.0%4.5%4.5%0.0%0.0%
44
California16Costa, Jim(D)20041156.0%DDLikely D57.7%57.7%14.8%57.4%10.8%3.4%56.9%1.5%12.6%55.4%56.3%-2.3%-2.3%-6.8%-1.4%-1.4%-5.9%-6.3%
45
California17Honda, Michael(D)20001173.5%DDSafe D71.3%71.3%47.1%73.5%43.1%35.2%65.4%11.7%54.5%71.5%77.3%0.3%0.3%-4.2%6.0%6.0%1.5%-1.4%
46
California18Eshoo, Anna(D)19921169.7%DDSafe D67.7%67.7%41.0%70.5%37.0%42.6%70.4%-5.3%44.8%68.5%72.4%0.8%0.8%-3.7%4.7%4.7%0.2%-1.8%
47
California19Lofgren, Zoe(D)19941174.4%DDSafe D70.4%70.4%46.5%73.2%42.5%47.3%66.9%7.1%61.9%71.2%81.0%0.8%0.8%-3.7%10.5%10.5%6.0%1.2%
48
California20Farr, Sam(D)19931172.4%DDSafe D70.4%70.4%48.1%74.1%44.1%38.1%69.4%2.0%47.8%72.1%73.9%1.6%1.6%-2.9%3.5%3.5%-1.0%-1.9%
49
California21Valadao, David(R)2012550.9%No projectionNo projectionToss Up53.6%53.6%15.5%57.8%28.5%35.7%-17.9%17.9%13.4%13.4%
50
California22Nunes, Devin(R)20024436.8%RRSafe R40.6%40.6%23.8%61.9%27.8%100.0%39.4%2.3%90.1%36.1%0.0%-4.5%4.5%0.0%-4.5%4.5%0.0%0.0%
51
California23McCarthy, Kevin(R)20064431.6%RRSafe R35.4%35.4%100.0%100.0%104.0%100.0%35.4%-0.1%92.5%0.0%3.8%-4.5%4.5%0.0%-4.5%4.5%0.0%0.0%
52
California24Capps, Lois(D)19981153.7%No projectionNo projectionLean D53.6%53.6%10.2%55.1%6.2%21.1%63.4%-19.7%9.1%53.1%54.5%-0.5%-0.5%-5.0%1.0%1.0%-3.5%-4.3%
53
California25
OPEN (McKeon, Buck)
(R)19924447.1%No projectionNo projectionToss Up47.1%47.1%9.6%54.8%13.6%23.7%46.9%0.4%15.6%43.2%42.2%-3.9%3.9%-0.6%-4.9%4.9%0.4%-0.1%
54
California26Brownley, Julia(D)2012253.5%No projectionNo projectionLean D53.2%53.2%5.4%52.7%10.4%55.2%2.0%2.0%-2.5%-2.5%
55
California27Chu, Judy(D)20091165.1%DDSafe D61.9%61.9%28.0%64.0%24.0%42.1%65.4%-7.1%42.6%62.0%71.3%0.1%0.1%-4.4%9.4%9.4%4.9%0.3%
56
California28Schiff, Adam(D)20001174.1%DDSafe D70.0%70.0%53.0%76.5%49.0%33.9%65.4%9.1%50.6%74.5%75.3%4.5%4.5%0.0%5.3%5.3%0.8%0.4%
57
California29Cardenas, Tony(D)2012277.0%DDSafe D76.3%76.3%100.0%100.0%105.0%100.0%4.5%4.5%0.0%0.0%
58
California30Sherman, Brad(D)19971169.0%DDSafe D64.7%64.7%100.0%100.0%96.0%51.2%73.4%-17.5%41.4%100.0%70.7%4.5%4.5%0.0%6.0%6.0%1.5%0.8%
59
California31OPEN (Miller, Gary)(R)19984456.4%DDLikely D56.4%56.4%100.0%100.0%104.0%32.3%42.4%27.9%-3.3%0.0%51.6%-4.5%4.5%0.0%-4.7%4.7%0.2%0.1%
60
California32Napolitano, Grace(D)19981167.1%DDSafe D64.4%64.4%31.4%65.7%27.4%46.9%68.4%-7.9%46.6%63.7%73.3%-0.7%-0.7%-5.2%8.9%8.9%4.4%-0.4%
61
California33
OPEN (Waxman, Henry)
(D)19741160.0%DDSafe D60.0%60.0%100.0%100.0%96.0%33.8%67.4%-14.8%26.6%100.0%63.3%4.5%4.5%0.0%3.3%3.3%-1.2%-0.6%
62
California34Becerra, Xavier(D)19921186.6%DDSafe D82.5%82.5%71.2%85.6%67.2%67.6%77.4%10.2%85.5%83.6%92.7%1.1%1.1%-3.4%10.2%10.2%5.7%1.2%
63
California35
OPEN (Negrete McLeod, Gloria)
(D)2012366.5%DDSafe D66.5%66.5%100.0%100.0%114.0%100.0%4.5%4.5%0.0%0.0%
64
California36Ruiz, Raul(D)2012351.2%No projectionNo projectionToss Up49.7%49.7%5.9%52.9%19.9%59.9%10.3%10.3%5.8%5.8%
65
California37Bass, Karen(D)20101287.9%DDSafe D84.2%84.2%72.8%86.4%68.8%72.2%83.9%0.5%89.3%84.4%94.7%0.2%0.2%-4.3%10.5%10.5%6.0%0.9%
66
California38Sanchez, Linda(D)20021167.1%DDSafe D64.0%64.0%35.1%67.5%31.1%32.0%62.9%2.3%41.8%65.5%70.9%1.5%1.5%-3.0%6.9%6.9%2.4%-0.3%
67
California39Royce, Ed(R)19924440.6%RNo projectionSafe R46.2%46.2%15.6%57.8%19.6%33.6%44.4%3.6%22.3%40.2%38.8%-6.0%6.0%1.5%-7.4%7.4%2.9%2.2%
68
California40Roybal-Allard, Lucille(D)19921185.8%DDSafe D80.6%80.6%100.0%100.0%96.0%54.5%72.4%16.4%78.4%100.0%89.2%4.5%4.5%0.0%8.6%8.6%4.1%2.1%
69
California41Takano, Mark(D)2012260.8%DDSafe D60.7%60.7%17.9%59.0%22.9%61.5%0.8%0.8%-3.7%-3.7%
70
California42Calvert, Ken(R)19924439.4%RRSafe R40.5%40.5%21.2%60.6%25.2%11.2%46.9%-12.7%16.4%37.4%41.8%-3.1%3.1%-1.4%1.3%-1.3%-5.8%-3.6%
71
California43Waters, Maxine(D)19901180.0%DDSafe D77.1%77.1%100.0%100.0%96.0%58.7%81.4%-8.7%57.6%100.0%78.8%4.5%4.5%0.0%1.7%1.7%-2.8%-1.4%
72
California44Hahn, Janice(D)20111785.2%DDSafe D83.6%83.6%100.0%100.0%96.0%9.8%61.4%44.5%63.2%100.0%81.6%4.5%4.5%0.0%-2.0%-2.0%-6.5%-3.3%
73
California45
OPEN (Campbell, John)
(R)20054442.2%RRLikely R42.2%42.2%16.9%58.5%20.9%24.4%46.4%-8.4%25.2%39.5%37.4%-2.6%2.6%-1.9%-4.8%4.8%0.3%-0.8%
74
California46Sanchez, Loretta(D)19961162.6%DDSafe D60.7%60.7%27.7%63.9%23.7%14.9%57.4%6.6%29.0%61.9%64.5%1.2%1.2%-3.3%3.8%3.8%-0.7%-2.0%
75
California47Lowenthal, Alan(D)2012259.3%DDSafe D59.3%59.3%13.1%56.6%18.1%59.1%-0.3%-0.3%-4.8%-4.8%
76
California48Rohrabacher, Dana(R)19884438.3%RRSafe R42.2%42.2%22.0%61.0%26.0%24.4%45.4%-6.4%23.2%37.0%38.4%-5.2%5.2%0.7%-3.8%3.8%-0.7%0.0%
77
California49Issa, Darrell(R)20004440.5%RNo projectionSafe R44.7%44.7%16.3%58.2%20.3%33.2%42.4%4.6%21.0%39.8%39.5%-4.9%4.9%0.4%-5.2%5.2%0.7%0.5%
78
California50Hunter, Duncan(R)20084431.8%RRSafe R36.7%36.7%35.4%67.7%39.4%32.6%42.4%-11.4%36.5%30.3%31.8%-6.4%6.4%1.9%-4.9%4.9%0.4%1.1%
79
California51Vargas, Juan(D)2012269.2%DDSafe D68.3%68.3%43.0%71.5%48.0%74.0%5.7%5.7%1.2%1.2%
80
California52Peters, Scott(D)2012352.3%No projectionNo projectionToss Up51.3%51.3%2.4%51.2%16.4%58.2%6.9%6.9%2.4%2.4%
81
California53Davis, Susan(D)20001161.0%DDSafe D60.6%60.6%22.9%61.4%18.9%29.4%65.4%-9.7%27.3%59.4%63.7%-1.1%-1.1%-5.6%3.1%3.1%-1.4%-3.5%
82
Colorado1DeGette, Diana(D)19961169.9%DDSafe D68.2%68.2%43.6%71.8%39.6%40.2%71.4%-6.4%41.3%69.8%70.7%1.6%1.6%-2.9%2.5%2.5%-2.0%-2.4%
83
Colorado2Polis, Jared(D)20081158.1%DDSafe D57.3%57.3%18.1%59.1%14.1%20.5%61.4%-8.2%19.8%57.1%59.9%-0.2%-0.2%-4.7%2.6%2.6%-1.9%-3.3%
84
Colorado3Tipton, Scott(R)20104642.4%RNo projectionLikely R45.1%45.1%13.0%56.5%17.0%4.5%44.9%0.4%14.6%41.5%42.7%-3.6%3.6%-0.9%-2.4%2.4%-2.1%-1.5%
85
Colorado4
OPEN (Gardner, Cory)
(R)20104638.4%RRSafe R38.4%38.4%22.8%61.4%26.8%11.9%45.9%-15.0%37.2%36.6%31.4%-1.8%1.8%-2.7%-7.0%7.0%2.5%-0.1%
86
Colorado5Lamborn, Doug(R)20064434.6%RRSafe R37.7%37.7%100.0%100.0%104.0%38.4%36.9%1.6%29.2%0.0%35.4%-4.5%4.5%0.0%-2.3%2.3%-2.2%-1.1%
87
Colorado6Coffman, Mike(R)20084446.4%No projectionNo projectionLean R50.6%50.6%2.2%51.1%6.2%35.2%42.9%15.4%12.2%46.9%43.9%-3.7%3.7%-0.8%-6.7%6.7%2.2%0.7%
88
Colorado7Perlmutter, Ed(D)20061156.5%DNo projectionLikely D55.5%55.5%13.5%56.7%9.5%12.3%55.9%-0.8%19.0%54.7%59.5%-0.7%-0.7%-5.2%4.0%4.0%-0.5%-2.8%
89
Connecticut1Larson, John(D)19981166.7%DDSafe D61.6%61.6%43.1%71.5%39.1%24.4%62.9%-2.6%29.4%69.5%64.7%8.0%8.0%3.5%3.1%3.1%-1.4%1.0%
90
Connecticut2Courtney, Joe(D)20061164.3%DNo projectionSafe D54.6%54.6%39.8%69.9%35.8%21.4%55.9%-2.6%26.3%67.9%63.2%13.3%13.3%8.8%8.6%8.6%4.1%6.5%
91
Connecticut3DeLauro, Rosa(D)19901170.6%DDSafe D61.6%61.6%49.4%74.7%45.4%31.9%59.9%3.4%42.9%72.7%71.4%11.1%11.1%6.6%9.9%9.9%5.4%6.0%
92
Connecticut4Himes, Jim(D)20081156.0%No projectionNo projectionLean D53.6%53.6%19.9%60.0%15.9%6.1%56.4%-5.6%8.1%58.0%54.0%4.4%4.4%-0.1%0.5%0.5%-4.0%-2.1%
93
Connecticut5Esty, Elizabeth(D)2012252.8%No projectionNo projectionToss Up52.6%52.6%2.6%51.3%7.6%53.8%1.2%1.2%-3.3%-3.3%
94
DelawareALCarney, John(D)20101263.2%DDSafe D57.4%57.4%31.7%65.8%27.7%16.1%58.9%-3.1%29.6%63.8%64.8%6.5%6.5%2.0%7.4%7.4%2.9%2.4%
95
Florida1Miller, Jeff(R)20014425.9%RRSafe R28.8%28.8%43.9%71.9%47.9%100.0%28.9%-0.2%92.6%26.1%3.7%-2.8%2.8%-1.7%-4.5%4.5%0.0%-0.9%
96
Florida2Southerland, Steve(R)20104644.0%No projectionNo projectionLean R45.2%45.2%5.5%52.7%9.5%12.9%41.9%6.6%16.7%45.3%41.6%0.1%-0.1%-4.6%-3.5%3.5%-1.0%-2.8%
97
Florida3Yoho, Ted(R)2012534.7%RRSafe R36.0%36.0%33.2%66.6%46.2%26.9%-9.1%9.1%4.6%4.6%
98
Florida4Crenshaw, Ander(R)20004430.1%RRSafe R33.9%33.9%100.0%100.0%104.0%100.0%34.9%-1.9%94.3%0.0%2.8%-4.5%4.5%0.0%-4.5%4.5%0.0%0.0%
99
Florida5Brown, Corrine(D)19921169.9%DDSafe D69.6%69.6%45.9%72.9%41.9%30.1%69.9%-0.5%37.1%70.9%68.6%1.3%1.3%-3.2%-1.1%-1.1%-5.6%-4.4%
100
Florida6DeSantis, Ron(R)2012539.4%RRSafe R39.9%39.9%14.4%57.2%27.4%36.3%-3.6%3.6%-0.9%-0.9%
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