Here to Part I.

I have done a statistical analysis of the 39 largest counties of the 9.25 pick-ups. Each of these 39 counties had a total vote of more than 170,000 and at least one candidate should have also gotten at least 100,000 of those votes or very,very close to it. All of those counties meet both criteria. Two counties (Stark County / OH, Washoe County / NV) had no candidate with 100,000 votes or more, but in both cases one candidate was very close to 100,000 and the countwide total vote was well over 170,000.  Those 39 counties accounted for 44.49% of the total popular vote of the pick-up states, which is actually slightly LESS than it was in 2004 for the same states: 44.91%. Nonetheless, when only 39 of 696 analysed counties (5.60%, numerically) posess almost half the electoral strength of the region, then it is statistically very clear that the large urban areas have the real electoral firepower in presidential elections. The candidate who sweeps the urban areas has a far better chance of winning the presidency.

Of these 39 counties, there were 21 Democratic retentions, 8 Democratic pick-ups and 10 Republican retentions. This means that of the same 39 counties in 2004, the picture was much more even: in 2004, there were 21 Democratic counties of these 39 and 18 Republican counties.

The Democratic party picked up Hillsborough (Tampa) and Pinellas (Clearwater) counties in Florida, Wake (Raleigh) county in North Carolina, Washoe (Reno) County in Nevada, Hamilton (Cincinnati) County in Ohio, Jefferson (Golden) and Arahapoe (Littleton) counties in Colorado and Douglas (Omaha) County in Nebraska.

Here is the complete raw-data for the 39 largest counties, plus Durham County (NC) as honorable mention.

Then, I took each one of those counties and analysed them back to the year 1960. A spreadsheet for each of those counties is within the raw-data. Here is the first spreadsheet (all 39 counties, comparison to 2004), in 2 parts:

County	DEM	GOP	IND	Total	DEM %	GOP %	IND %	Margin	Mar %	County – main City	% of PV	Growth rate	% of 9 pick-ups
9.25 pick-up states
2008	15960823	14573637	398607	30933067	51,60%	47,11%	1,29%	1387186	4,48%	2008	23,53%	10,94%	100,00%
2004	12884033	14784086	214596	27882715	46,21%	53,02%	0,77%	1900053	6,81%	2004	22,80%		100,00%
Diff:	3076790	-210449	184011	3050352	5,39%	-5,91%	0,52%	3287239	11,30%	Diff:	0,73%		0,00%
Obama/Bush	1176737
Counties over 170,000 votes	7846700	5751495	163374	13761569	57,02%	41,79%	1,19%	2095205	15,23%	All 39 counties		9,89%	44,49%
2004	6451252	5971268	100293	12522813	51,52%	47,68%	0,80%	479984	3,83%	2004			44,91%
diff:	1395448	-219773	63081	1238756	5,50%	-5,89%	0,39%	1615221	11,39%	diff:			-0,42%
Miami-Dade (FL)	499831	360551	4254	864636	57,81%	41,70%	0,49%	139280	16,11%	Miami	10,28%	11,61%	2,80%
2004	409732	361095	3899	774726	52,89%	46,61%	0,50%	48637	6,28%	2004	10,18%		2,78%
Diff:	90099	-544	355	89910	4,92%	-4,91%	-0,01%	90643	9,83%	Diff:	0,10%		0,02%
Broward (FL)	492640	237729	4722	735091	67,02%	32,34%	0,64%	254911	34,68%	Ft. Lauderdale	8,74%	3,99%	2,38%
2004	453873	244674	8325	706872	64,21%	34,61%	1,18%	209199	29,60%	2004	9,29%		2,54%
Diff:	38767	-6945	-3603	28219	2,81%	-2,27%	-0,54%	45712	5,08%	Diff:	-0,55%		-0,16%
Cuyahoga (OH)	458422	199880	8993	667295	68,70%	29,95%	1,35%	258542	38,74%	Cleveland	11,66%	-0,96%	2,16%
2004	448503	221600	3674	673777	66,57%	32,89%	0,55%	226903	33,68%	2004	11,97%		2,42%
Diff:	9919	-21720	5319	-6482	2,13%	-2,94%	0,80%	31639	5,07%	Diff:	-0,31%		-0,26%
Clark (NV)	380765	257078	13329	651172	58,47%	39,48%	2,05%	123687	18,99%	Las Vegas	67,28%	19,39%	2,11%
2004	281767	255337	8293	545397	51,66%	46,82%	1,52%	26430	4,85%	2004	65,74%		1,96%
Diff:	98998	1741	5036	105775	6,81%	-7,34%	0,53%	97257	14,15%	Diff:	1,54%		0,15%
Palm Beach (FL)	361271	226037	4128	591436	61,08%	38,22%	0,70%	135234	22,87%	Palm Beach	7,03%	8,60%	1,91%
2004	328687	212688	3247	544622	60,35%	39,05%	0,60%	115999	21,30%	2004	7,16%		1,95%
Diff:	32584	13349	881	46814	0,73%	-0,83%	0,10%	19235	1,57%	Diff:	-0,12%		-0,04%
Franklin (OH)	334709	218486	8568	561763	59,58%	38,89%	1,53%	116223	20,69%	Columbus	9,82%	6,83%	1,82%
2004	285801	237253	2773	525827	54,35%	45,12%	0,53%	48548	9,23%	2004	9,34%		1,89%
Diff:	48908	-18767	5795	35936	5,23%	-6,23%	1,00%	67675	11,46%	Diff:	0,48%		-0,07%
Fairfax (VA)	310359	200994	4901	516254	60,12%	38,93%	0,95%	109365	21,18%	Fairfax	13,87%	11,89%	1,67%
2004	245671	211980	3728	461379	53,25%	45,94%	0,81%	33691	7,30%	2004	14,43%		1,65%
Diff:	64688	-10986	1173	54875	6,87%	-7,01%	0,14%	75674	13,88%	Diff:	-0,56%		0,01%
Hillsborough (FL)	272963	236355	5177	514495	53,05%	45,94%	1,01%	36608	7,12%	Tampa	6,12%	11,07%	1,66%
2004	214132	245576	3514	463222	46,23%	53,01%	0,76%	31444	6,79%	2004	6,09%		1,66%
Diff:	58831	-9221	1663	51273	6,83%	-7,08%	0,25%	68052	13,90%	Diff:	0,03%		0,00%
Pinellas (FL)	248299	210066	6787	465152	53,38%	45,16%	1,46%	38233	8,22%	Clearwater	5,53%	2,15%	1,50%
2004	225460	225686	4211	455357	49,51%	49,56%	0,92%	226	0,05%	2004	5,98%		1,63%
Diff:	22839	-15620	2576	9795	3,87%	-4,40%	0,53%	38459	8,27%	Diff:	-0,45%		-0,13%
Orange (FL)	273009	186832	2870	462711	59,00%	40,38%	0,62%	86177	18,62%	Orlando	5,50%	19,24%	1,50%
2004	193354	192539	2151	388044	49,83%	49,62%	0,55%	815	0,21%	2004	5,10%		1,39%
Diff:	79655	-5707	719	74667	9,17%	-9,24%	0,07%	85362	18,41%	Diff:	0,40%		0,10%
Wake (NC)	250891	187001	4353	442245	56,73%	42,28%	0,98%	63890	14,45%	Raleigh	10,26%	26,77%	1,43%
2004	169909	177324	1611	348844	48,71%	50,83%	0,46%	7415	2,13%	2004	9,96%		1,25%
Diff:	80982	9677	2742	93401	8,02%	-8,55%	0,52%	71305	16,57%	Diff:	0,29%		0,18%
Hamilton (OH)	225213	195530	4343	425086	52,98%	46,00%	1,02%	29683	6,98%	Cincinnatti	7,43%	0,25%	1,37%
2004	199679	222616	1730	424025	47,09%	52,50%	0,41%	22937	5,41%	2004	7,53%		1,52%
Diff:	25534	-27086	2613	1061	5,89%	-6,50%	0,61%	52620	12,39%	Diff:	-0,10%		-0,15%
Duval (FL)	202618	210537	3538	416693	48,63%	50,53%	0,85%	7919	1,90%	Jacksonville	4,95%	9,35%	1,35%
2004	158610	220190	2261	381061	41,62%	57,78%	0,59%	61580	16,16%	2004	5,01%		1,37%
Diff:	44008	-9653	1277	35632	7,00%	-7,26%	0,26%	-53661	-14,26%	Diff:	-0,05%		-0,02%
Mecklenburg (NC)	253958	153848	3011	410817	61,82%	37,45%	0,73%	100110	24,37%	Charlotte	9,53%	27,15%	1,33%
2004	166828	155084	1190	323102	51,63%	48,00%	0,37%	11744	3,63%	2004	9,23%		1,16%
Diff:	87130	-1236	1821	87715	10,18%	-10,55%	0,36%	88366	20,73%	Diff:	0,30%		0,17%
Marion (IN)	241987	134313	3790	380090	63,67%	35,34%	1,00%	107674	28,33%	Indianapolis	13,81%	21,94%	1,23%
2004	162249	156072	2517	320838	50,57%	48,65%	0,78%	6177	1,93%	2004	13,00%		1,15%
Diff:	79738	-21759	12411	70390	13,10%	-13,31%	0,21%	101497	26,40%	Diff:	0,81%		0,08%
Jefferson (CO)	158153	131627	5282	295062	53,60%	44,61%	1,79%	26526	8,99%	Golden	12,29%	8,65%	0,95%
2004	126558	140644	4366	271568	46,60%	51,79%	1,61%	14086	5,19%	2004	12,75%		0,97%
Diff:	31595	-9017	916	23494	7,00%	-7,18%	0,18%	40612	14,18%	Diff:	-0,46%		-0,02%
Brevard (FL)	127620	157589	3718	288927	44,17%	54,54%	1,29%	29969	10,37%	Titusville	3,44%	8,84%	0,93%
2004	110309	153068	2085	265462	41,55%	57,66%	0,79%	42759	16,11%	2004	3,49%		0,95%
Diff:	17311	4521	1633	23465	2,62%	-3,12%	0,50%	-12790	-5,73%	Diff:	-0,05%		-0,02%
Bernalillo (NM)	171556	110521	3701	285778	60,03%	38,67%	1,30%	61035	21,36%	Albuquerque	34,42%	11,28%	0,92%
2004	132252	121454	3105	256811	51,50%	47,29%	1,21%	10798	4,20%	2004	33,96%		0,92%
Diff:	39304	-10933	596	28967	8,53%	-8,62%	0,09%	50237	17,15%	Diff:	0,47%		0,00%
Montgomery (OH)	145997	128679	4355	279031	52,32%	46,12%	1,56%	17318	6,21%	Dayton	4,88%	-1,26%	0,90%
2004	142997	138371	1216	282584	50,60%	48,97%	0,43%	4626	1,64%	2004	5,02%		1,01%
Diff:	3000	-9692	3139	-3553	1,72%	-2,85%	1,13%	12692	4,57%	Diff:	-0,14%		-0,11%
Summit (OH)	160858	113284	4487	278629	57,73%	40,66%	1,61%	47574	17,07%	Akron	4,87%	0,82%	0,90%
2004	156587	118588	1175	276350	56,66%	42,91%	0,43%	37999	13,75%	2004	4,91%		0,99%
Diff:	4271	-5304	3312	2279	1,07%	-2,25%	1,19%	9575	3,32%	Diff:	-0,04%		-0,09%

County	DEM	GOP	IND	Total	DEM %	GOP %	IND %	Margin	Mar %	County – main City	% of PV	Growth rate	% of 9 pick-ups
El Paso (CO)	108899	160318	3958	273175	39,86%	58,69%	1,45%	51419	18,82%	Colorado Springs	11,38%	12,98%	0,88%
2004	77648	161361	2779	241788	32,11%	66,74%	1,15%	83713	34,62%	2004	11,35%		0,87%
Diff:	31251	-1043	1179	31387	7,75%	-8,05%	0,30%	-32294	-15,80%	Diff:	0,03%		0,02%
Denver (CO)	204882	62567	4084	271533	75,45%	23,04%	1,50%	142315	52,41%	Denver	11,31%	13,69%	0,88%
2004	166135	69903	2788	238826	69,56%	29,27%	1,17%	96232	40,29%	2004	11,21%		0,86%
Diff:	38747	-7336	1296	32707	5,89%	-6,23%	0,34%	46083	12,12%	Diff:	0,10%		0,02%
Lee (FL)	119701	147608	2668	269977	44,34%	54,67%	0,99%	27907	10,34%	Fort Myers	3,21%	12,18%	0,87%
2004	93860	144176	2631	240667	39,00%	59,91%	1,09%	50316	20,91%	2004	3,16%		0,86%
Diff:	25841	3432	37	29310	5,34%	-5,23%	-0,10%	-22409	-10,57%	Diff:	0,05%		0,01%
Arapahoe (CO)	148218	113866	4064	266148	55,69%	42,78%	1,53%	34352	12,91%	Littleton	11,08%	14,54%	0,86%
2004	110262	119475	2628	232365	47,45%	51,42%	1,13%	9213	3,96%	2004	10,91%		0,83%
Diff:	37956	-5609	1436	33783	8,24%	-8,63%	0,40%	43565	16,87%	Diff:	0,18%		0,03%
Polk (FL)	113865	128878	2961	245704	46,34%	52,45%	1,21%	15013	6,11%	Bartow	2,92%	16,54%	0,79%
2004	86009	123559	1262	210830	40,80%	58,61%	0,60%	37550	17,81%	2004	2,77%		0,76%
Diff:	27856	5319	1699	34874	5,55%	-6,15%	0,61%	-22537	-11,70%	Diff:	0,15%		0,04%
Volusia (FL)	127795	113938	3122	244855	52,19%	46,53%	1,28%	13857	5,66%	De Land	2,91%	6,95%	0,79%
2004	115519	111924	1496	228939	50,46%	48,89%	0,65%	3595	1,57%	2004	3,01%		0,82%
Diff:	12276	2014	1626	15916	1,73%	-2,36%	0,62%	10262	4,09%	Diff:	-0,10%		-0,03%
Guilford (NC)	142101	97718	1952	241771	58,78%	40,42%	0,81%	44383	18,36%	Greensboro	5,61%	21,30%	0,78%
2004	100042	98254	1018	199314	50,19%	49,30%	0,51%	1788	0,90%	2004	5,69%		0,71%
Diff:	42059	-536	934	42457	8,58%	-8,88%	0,30%	42595	17,46%	Diff:	-0,08%		0,07%
Douglas (NE-02)	116810	106291	3600	226701	51,53%	46,89%	1,59%	10519	4,64%	Omaha	28,29%	9,48%	0,73%
2004	83330	120813	2928	207071	40,24%	58,34%	1,41%	37483	18,10%	2004	3,92%		0,74%
Diff:	33480	-14522	672	19630	11,28%	-11,46%	0,17%	48002	22,74%	Diff:	24,38%		-0,01%
Lucas (OH)	142852	73706	3899	220457	64,80%	33,43%	1,77%	69146	31,36%	Toledo	3,85%	0,01%	0,71%
2004	132715	87160	555	220430	60,21%	39,54%	0,25%	45555	20,67%	2004	3,92%		0,79%
Diff:	10137	-13454	3344	27	4,59%	-6,11%	1,52%	23591	10,70%	Diff:	-0,06%		-0,08%
Pasco (FL)	102417	110104	3068	215589	47,51%	51,07%	1,42%	7687	3,57%	Dade City	2,56%	12,92%	0,70%
2004	84749	103230	2937	190916	44,39%	54,07%	1,54%	18481	9,68%	2004	2,51%		0,68%
Diff:	17668	6874	131	24673	3,11%	-3,00%	-0,12%	-10794	-6,11%	Diff:	0,05%		0,01%
Polk (IA)	120984	89668	3757	214409	56,43%	41,82%	1,75%	31316	14,61%	Des Moines	13,95%	5,82%	0,69%
2004	105218	95828	1572	202618	51,93%	47,29%	0,78%	9390	4,63%	2004	13,45%		0,73%
Diff:	15766	-6160	2185	11791	4,50%	-5,47%	0,98%	21926	9,97%	Diff:	0,50%		-0,03%
Lake (IN)	139301	67742	1993	209036	66,64%	32,41%	0,95%	71559	34,23%	Gary – Hammond	7,59%	6,76%	0,68%
2004	114743	71903	1376	188022	61,03%	38,24%	0,73%	42840	22,78%	2004	7,62%		0,67%
Diff:	35195	-22206	-272	12717	5,61%	-5,83%	0,22%	57401	11,45%	Diff:	-0,03%		0,00%
Sarasota (FL)	102686	102897	2426	208009	49,37%	49,47%	1,17%	211	0,10%	Sarasota	2,47%	6,32%	0,67%
2004	88442	104692	2518	195652	45,20%	53,51%	1,29%	16250	8,31%	2004	2,57%		0,70%
Diff:	14244	-1795	-92	12357	4,16%	-4,04%	-0,12%	-16039	-8,20%	Diff:	-0,10%		-0,03%
Seminole (FL)	99335	105070	2021	206426	48,12%	50,90%	0,98%	5735	2,78%	Sanford	2,45%	10,87%	0,67%
2004	76971	108172	1052	186195	41,34%	58,10%	0,56%	31201	16,76%	2004	2,45%		0,67%
Diff:	22364	-3102	969	20231	6,78%	-7,20%	0,41%	-25466	-13,98%	Diff:	0,01%		0,00%
Virginia Beach (VA)	98885	100319	2045	201249	49,14%	49,85%	1,02%	1434	0,71%	Virginia Beach	5,41%	14,55%	0,65%
2004	70666	103752	1269	175687	40,22%	59,06%	0,72%	33086	18,83%	2004	5,49%		0,63%
Diff:	28219	-3433	776	25562	8,91%	-9,21%	0,29%	-31652	-18,12%	Diff:	-0,09%		0,02%
Stark (OH)	96990	86743	4198	187931	51,61%	46,16%	2,23%	10247	5,45%	Canton	3,28%	-0,28%	0,61%
2004	95337	92215	907	188459	50,59%	48,93%	0,48%	3122	1,66%	2004	3,35%		0,68%
Diff:	1653	-5472	3291	-528	1,02%	-2,77%	1,75%	7125	3,80%	Diff:	-0,06%		-0,07%
Washoe (NV)	99671	76880	3863	180414	55,25%	42,61%	2,14%	22791	12,63%	Washoe	18,64%	13,41%	0,58%
2004	74841	81545	2693	159079	47,05%	51,26%	1,69%	6704	4,21%	2004	19,18%		0,57%
Diff:	24830	-4665	1170	21335	8,20%	-8,65%	0,45%	29495	16,85%	Diff:	-0,53%		0,01%
Butler (OH)	66030	105341	2688	174059	37,94%	60,52%	1,54%	39311	22,58%	Hamilton – Middletown	3,04%	4,34%	0,56%
2004	56243	109872	704	166819	33,71%	65,86%	0,42%	53629	32,15%	2004	2,96%		0,60%
Diff:	9787	-4531	1984	7240	4,22%	-5,34%	1,12%	-14318	-9,56%	Diff:	0,08%		-0,04%
Boulder (CO)	124159	44904	2700	171763	72,29%	26,14%	1,57%	79255	46,14%	Boulder	7,15%	7,85%	0,56%
2004	105564	51595	2109	159268	66,28%	32,40%	1,32%	53969	33,89%	2004	7,48%		0,57%
Diff:	18595	-6691	591	12495	6,00%	-6,25%	0,25%	25286	12,26%	Diff:	-0,32%		-0,02%
special mention:										Durham not in statistic:
Durham (NC)	103456	32353	1088	136897	75,57%	23,63%	0,79%	71103	51,94%	Durham	3,18%	24,85%	0,44%
2004	74524	34614	513	109651	67,96%	31,57%	0,47%	39910	36,40%	2004	3,13%		0,39%
Diff:	28932	-2261	575	27246	7,61%	-7,93%	0,33%	31193	15,54%	Diff:	0,04%		0,05%
DEM county retentions	5184426	3165218	96814	8446458	61,38%	37,47%	1,15%	2019208	23,91%	DEM county retentions		9,61%	27,31%
2004	4343574	3305517	57114	7706205	56,36%	42,89%	0,74%	1038057	13,47%	2004			27,64%
diff:	840852	-140299	39700	740253	5,02%	-5,42%	0,41%	3057265	10,44%	diff:			-0,33%
DEM county pick-ups	1520218	1257616	37469	2815303	54,00%	44,67%	1,33%	262602	9,33%	DEM county pick-ups		9,91%	9,10%
2004	1204171	1333679	23681	2561531	47,01%	52,07%	0,92%	129508	5,06%	2004			9,19%
Diff:	316047	-76063	13788	253772	6,99%	-7,39%	0,41%	392110	14,38%	Diff:			-0,09%
All DEM counties	6704644	4422834	134283	11261761	59,53%	39,27%	1,19%	2281810	20,26%	All DEM counties		9,68%	36,41%
2004	5547745	4639196	80795	10267736	54,03%	45,18%	0,79%	908549	8,85%	2004			36,82%
diff:	1156899	-216362	53488	994025	5,50%	-5,91%	0,41%	1373261	11,41%	diff:			-0,42%
GOP retentions	1142056	1328661	29091	2499808	45,69%	53,15%	1,16%	186605	7,46%	GOP retentions		10,85%	8,08%
2004	903507	1332072	19498	2255077	40,07%	59,07%	0,86%	428565	19,00%	2004			8,09%
diff:	238549	-3411	9593	244731	5,62%	-5,92%	0,30%	-241960	-11,54%	diff:			-0,01%
All 39 counties	7846700	5751495	163374	13761569	57,02%	41,79%	1,19%	2095205	15,23%	All counties		9,89%	44,49%
2004	6451252	5971268	100293	12522813	51,52%	47,68%	0,80%	479984	3,83%	2004			44,91%
diff:	1395448	-219773	63081	1238756	5,50%	-5,89%	0,39%	1615221	11,39%	diff:			-0,42%

Legend: % of PV depends on the entry: For the first entry "9.25 Pick-up States", the percentage is of the national raw vote. For each individual county, the percentage is of that respective state's raw vote.

The last column: "% of 9 pick-ups" recalculates each county for it's take of the entire 9.25 pick-up state region. For instance, Clark County (Las Vegas) NV represented an astounding 67.28% of the Nevada popular vote, but only represented 2.11% of all 9.25 pick-up states combined. Conversely, Miami-Dade County (FL) represented 10.28% of the Florida popular vote (which visually looks far less impressive than Clark County), but represented 2.80% of all the pick-up states combined, more than Clark County.

Superlatives:

-the largest raw vote total of all 39 counties: Miami-Dade County, FL: 864,636 votes

-the largest Democratic winning raw vote total: Miami-Dade County, FL: 499,831 votes
-the largest Democratic raw-vote margin of the pick-ups: Cuyahoga County, OH (Cleveland): +258,542 vote margin
-the three highest Democratic winning percentages: Denver- CO,  Boulder, CO and Cuyahoga- OH: 75.45%, 72.29% and 68.70%, respectively.
-the three largest Democratic winning margins (by percent): Denver- CO,  Boulder- CO and Cuyahoga- OH: +52.41%, +46.14% and +38.74%, respectively.
-the highest democratic margin-shift (swing): Marion County, IN: +26.40% margin shift. This is especially impressive, as this shift was not from a pick-up, but rather, a Democratic retention county.

-the largest Republican winning raw vote total: Duval County, FL: 210,537 votes
-the largest Republican raw-vote margin of the pick-ups: El Paso County, CO: +51,419 vote margin
-the three highest Republican winning percentages: Butler - OH, El Paso- Co and Lee- FL:  60.52%, 58.69% and 54.67%, respectively
-the three largest Republican winning margins (by percent): Butler - OH, El Paso- Co and Brevard- FL: +22.58%, +18.82% and +10.37%, respectively.
-the lowest negative Republican margin-shift (swing): Brevard County, FL: -5.73% margin shift

All of the Democratic retentions and pick-ups showed raw vote, percentual and margin GAINS.
All of the Republican retentions showed percentual and margin LOSSES.
4 of the Republican retentions showed raw-vote gains: Brevard, Lee, Polk and Pasco counties, all in Florida. The other 6 Republican retentions showed raw-vote losses.

9 Republican or Democratic tipping-point (margin = less than 4%) counties from 2004 became solid Democratic wins in 2008: Pinellas, Volusia and Orange Counties-FL, Wake, Guilford and Mecklenburg Counties- NC, Montgomery and Stark Counties - OH, Arapahoe County- CO

5 Republican retentions have become tipping point counties for 2012: Sarasota (+0.10%), Virginia Beach (+0.71%), Duval (+1.90), Seminole (+2.70%) and Pasco (+3.75%) . Statistically this means that 1/2 of the Republican retentions studied here are endangered territory for 2012 and (this has been proven historically many times over) in the case of a sucessful re-election campaign for the Democratic party in 2012, these five counties are the most likely candidates to become Democratic pick-ups in 2012.

O Democratic retentions or pick-ups are tipping-point counties for 2012.

Back to these 39 counties, plus Durham. The excel raw-data traces the history of these counties back to 1960. I have created a table here to show the chronological progression of each county. For each county and year, I have assigned either a D, R or an I, depending on which party won the county in that year. And then I have shaded each cell according to winning party. Here is the table, first organized alpabetically by state:

State

County

Assoc. City

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

CO

Jefferson

Golden

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

CO

El Paso

Colorado Springs

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

CO

Denver

Denver

D

D

D

R

D

R

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

CO

Arapahoe

Littleton

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

CO

Boulder

Boulder

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

D

FL

Miami-Dade

Miami

D

D

D

R

D

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

FL

Broward

Ft. Lauderdale

R

R

R

R

D

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

FL

Palm Beach

Palm Beach

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

FL

Hillsborough

Tampa

D

D

R

R

D

R

R

R

R

D

R

R

D

FL

Pinellas

Clearwater

D

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

R

D

FL

Orange

Orlando

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

FL

Duval

Jacksonville

D

R

I

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

FL

Brevard

Titusville

R

D

R

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

FL

Lee

Fort Myers

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

FL

Polk

Bartow

R

R

R

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

FL

Volusia

De Land

R

D

R

R

D

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

FL

Pasco

Dade City

R

D

R

R

D

R

R

R

D

D

D

R

D

FL

Sarasota

Sarasota

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

FL

Seminole

Sanford

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

IN

Marion

Indianapolis

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

IN

Lake

Gary – Hammond

D

D

D

R

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

IA

Polk

Des Moines

D

D

D

R

D

R

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

NE

Douglas

Omaha

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

NV

Clark

Las Vegas

D

D

D

R

D

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

NV

Washoe

Reno

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

NM

Bernalillo

Albuquerque

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

NC

Wake

Raleigh

D

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

R

R

R

D

NC

Guilford

Greensboro

R

D

R

R

D

R

R

R

D

D

R

D

D

NC

Mecklenburg

Charlotte

R

D

R

R

D

R

R

R

R

D

R

D

D

NC

Durham

Durham

D

D

D

R

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

OH

Cuyahoga

Cleveland

D

D

D

R

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

OH

Franklin

Columbus

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

OH

Hamilton

Cincinnatti

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

OH

Montgomery

Dayton

R

D

D

R

D

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

OH

Summit

Akron

D

D

D

R

D

D

R

D

D

D

D

D

D

OH

Lucas

Toledo

D

D

D

D

D

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

D

OH

Stark

Canton

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

R

D

D

OH

Butler

Hamilton - Middletown

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

VA

Fairfax

Fairfax

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

D

VA

Virginia Beach

Virginia Beach

D

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

And here is the table, organized in order from CORE GOP counties to CORE DEM counties. The table is once again color coded to make party identification easier:

State

County

Assoc. City

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Trend

FL

Lee

Fort Myers

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

Core GOP

FL

Sarasota

Sarasota

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

-steady-

FL

Seminole

Sanford

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

-steady-

OH

Butler

Hamilton - Middletown

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

Core GOP

CO

El Paso

Colorado Springs

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

Core GOP

FL

Polk

Bartow

R

R

R

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

Core GOP

FL

Duval

Jacksonville

D

R

I

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

-steady-

FL

Brevard

Titusville

R

D

R

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

slight DEM

VA

Virginia Beach

Virginia Beach

D

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

strong DEM

FL

Pasco

Dade City

R

D

R

R

D

R

R

R

D

D

D

R

R

-steady-

OH

Hamilton

Cincinnatti

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

slight DEM

NE

Douglas

Omaha

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

slight DEM

NV

Washoe

Reno

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

slight DEM

NC

Wake

Raleigh

D

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

R

R

R

D

slilght DEM

CO

Jefferson

Golden

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

slight DEM

CO

Arapahoe

Littleton

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

slight DEM

FL

Hillsborough

Tampa

D

D

R

R

D

R

R

R

R

D

R

R

D

Swing

FL

Pinellas

Clearwater

D

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

R

D

Swing

FL

Orange

Orlando

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

DEM

IN

Marion

Indianapolis

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

strong DEM

OH

Stark

Canton

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

R

D

D

mod. DEM

NC

Guilford

Greensboro

R

D

R

R

D

R

R

R

D

D

R

D

D

DEM

NC

Mecklenburg

Charlotte

R

D

R

R

D

R

R

R

R

D

R

D

D

strong DEM

VA

Fairfax

Fairfax

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

D

strong DEM

FL

Palm Beach

Palm Beach

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

DEM

FL

Broward

Ft. Lauderdale

R

R

R

R

D

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

strong DEM

FL

Volusia

De Land

R

D

R

R

D

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

-steady-

NM

Bernalillo

Albuquerque

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

strong DEM

OH

Franklin

Columbus

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

strong DEM

OH

Montgomery

Dayton

R

D

D

R

D

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

-steady-

NV

Clark

Las Vegas

D

D

D

R

D

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

strong DEM

FL

Miami-Dade

Miami

D

D

D

R

D

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

strong DEM

CO

Boulder

Boulder

R

D

R

R

R

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

D

Core DEM

OH

Summit

Akron

D

D

D

R

D

D

R

D

D

D

D

D

D

Core DEM

OH

Lucas

Toledo

D

D

D

D

D

R

R

D

D

D

D

D

D

Core DEM

CO

Denver

Denver

D

D

D

R

D

R

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

Core DEM

NC

Durham

Durham

D

D

D

R

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

Core DEM

IN

Lake

Gary – Hammond

D

D

D

R

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

Core DEM

IA

Polk

Des Moines

D

D

D

R

D

R

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

Core DEM

OH

Cuyahoga

Cleveland

D

D

D

R

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

D

Core DEM

In the case of some counties that visually look as if they should be core GOP counties there is instead the marking -steady-; these are GOP counties that should be core counties, but which almost flipped in 2008, so their status is now uncertain. And some Democratic counties are marked as -steady- as the margins are very lean.

But the table makes it very easy to see which years are landslide years: 1972 and 1984, to a smaller extent 1992 and 2008. In 1972, we see a sea of red go through all counties except Lucas County, OH. In 1984, we see a sea of red go through all counties except the bottom 5. At the top we see 3 core GOP counties that also resisted the Johnson landslide of 1964. Notice that all three counties are in Florida.

Starting in 1988, the Democratic party started re-building in the urban areas:

3 counties were added to the Democratic column in 1988, resisting the GOP pull in that year: Boulder, Summit and Lucas counties. And those counties have become core DEM counties since then.

8 counties joined the Democratic column in 1992 and have stayed there since then: Palm Beach, Broward, Volusia, Bernalillo, Franklin, Montgomery, Clark, Miami-Dade. They are mostly strong DEM counties, save for Montgomery and Volusia, which tend to go with leans margins. There are 4 more counties that joined the Democratic column in 1992, but were reclaimed by the GOP in either 1996 or 2000: Pasco, Wake, Stark, Guilford. Pasco returned to the GOP in 2004 and has stayed there. It is therefore the only county to complete buck the blue trend, in spite of reduced margins in 2008.

Mecklenburg and Pinellas counties joined the Democratic column in 1996, were reclaimed by the GOP in 2000 or 2004 and were reclaimed by the Democratic party in 2004 or 2008.

Fairfax joined the Democratic column in 2000 and has stayed there since, with ever increasing margins.

Orange and Marion counties joined in 2004 and were retained in 2008. Both of these retentions had massive margin shifts toward the Democratic party in 2008: +18.41 and +26.40%, respectively.

The 8 counties that Obama picked up are clear to see in the middle of the table. Six of those counties have one thing in common: this is the first time they have gone Democratic since 1964, statistical evidence of a sweep similar to but not as extreme as Johnson in 1964: Hamilton, Douglas, Jefferson, Wake, Hillsborough and Pinellas counties were slightly smaller wins for the Democratic party than in 1964. However, Washoe and Arapahoe counties were larger wins for the Democratic party than in 1964, thus breaking a 44 year record. Notice that both of those counties are in the west.

We can see clearly from the table that the last time a party had flipped 8 counties or more was in 1992, when Bill Clinton picked-up 12 counties. George W. Bush, Jr. picked up 3 counties in 2000 and 1 more in 2004. Those counties returned to the Democratic party in 2000 or 2004.

In 1988- just analyzing these 40 counties- there were 8 Democratic counties and 32 Republican counties. In 1992, out of the same mix of 40 counties, there were 20 Republican counties and 20 Democratic counties, an even split. In 2000, there were 21 Republican counties and 19 Democratic counties. But in 2004, in spite of a republican re-election, the Democrats had 22 counties, the Republicans 18. And now in 2008, it's 30 Democratic, 10 Republican. There can be no doubt about it: statistically, the urban areas in the Union have moved decisively to the Democratic party in 47 of 50 states (the evidence for which I will present before the end of 2009). This example from the 9.25 Democratic pick-ups is mild in comparison to the statistical data that came out of cities in core Democratic territory: Philadelphia (83% for Obama), Detroit (74% for Obama), New York (86% for Obama), Los Angeles (69% for Obama), Seattle (70% for Obama), Portland (77% for Obama) Chicago (76% for Obama), Boston (64% for Obama), Honolulu (70% for Obama), Milwaukee (67% for Obama), Madison (73% for Obama), New Orleans (79% for Obama), Baton Rouge, Dallas (deep in GOP territory: 57% for Obama), St. Louis (60% for Obama) etc, etc, etc.

Conclusion:

The Democratic wins in the pick-up states, as in the retentions, were not an example of the Democratic party barely holding on the to so-called "blue" states plus barely taking one "red" state or getting to one vote over 50%. The sweep through the pick-ups is statistically clear. The last time a sweep like this happened in the Republican party, it held the white house for 12 years. On the other hand, Johnson and Nixon had massive sweeps in 1964 and 1972 and in spite of this,the White House switched hands in the following cycles. So, though such a sweep is no forecast for the future, the data tells us quite clearly where the new battle lines will form in these nine states for the 2012 General Election. And both parties will be targeting key counties in key districts in 2010 in order to sway the affected area to their side before 2012 even gets off the ground. Those key counties are studied most intensively in the individual state analyses.