dark blue = +15% to +20%

blue = +10% to +15%

lightest blue = +0% to 4%

medium red = +5% to +10%

light red = +1% to +4%

Then with the GOP counties up to +20%:

 

dark blue = +15% to +20%

blue = +10% to +15%

lightest blue = +0% to 4%

red% = +10 to +20%

medium red = +5% to +10%

light red = +1% to +4%

Then with the GOP counties up to +40%:

 

dark blue = +15% to +20%

blue = +10% to +15%

lightest blue = +0% to 4%

darker red = +30% to +40%

dark red = +20% to +30%

red% = +10 to +20%

medium red = +5% to +10%

light red = +1% to +4%

Here the complete map for 2008:

 

Here map of all counties, with asterisks in gold for the counties with one or more US-military installations:

 

Here is a trend/swing map for the state. All 17 counties trended/swung Democratic:

 

Here is a map of Nevada, showing the population density of the state, by region:

 

Here a review of those pick-up counties, first by descending partisan shift:

County	Region	G Rate	% of PV'08	% of PV'04	Diff.	Margin	Partisan shift
Carson City	W-Eck	2.48%	2.45%	2.79%	-0.34%	+0.86%	+17.00%
Washoe	NW-Tip	13.41%	18.64%	19.18%	-0.53%	+12.63%	+16.85%
Total	--	12.03%	21.09%	21.96%	-0.87%	+11.27%	+16.99%

Here a review of those pick-up counties, descending, by margin and by % of the 2008 PV:

County	Region	G Rate	% of PV'08	% of PV'04	Diff.	Margin	Partisan shift
Washoe	NW-Tip	13.41%	18.64%	19.18%	-0.53%	+12.63%	+16.85%
Carson City	W-Eck	2.48%	2.45%	2.79%	-0.34%	+0.86%	+17.00%
Total	--	12.03%	21.09%	21.96%	-0.87%	+11.27%	+16.99%

Both of these pick-ups have a partisan shift larger than the statewide partisan shift.

Now, let's go back to the top 2 counties in the state (85.92% of the PV in 2008)- here colored in green:

You can look at the map and visualize for yourself that the other 15 counties, the ones with a white background, represent the tiny MINORITY of the PV from 2008, 6 times smaller than the 2 big counties. This is a HUGE political imbalance within a state. I know of no other state in the Union with a political/electoral imbalance as large as Nevada.

I have done a special analysis of the six largest counties in NV, for comparison purposes. The results are very englightening, especially concerning the growth rate of the current 5 largest counties. Here is the the study, as an excel document, with all the raw numbers.

And a table of those counties, with their percent of the statewide PV, per year (the color indicates for which party the county went):

Year	Clark	Washoe	Douglas	Carson City	Subtotal	Lyon	Mineral	Total:
1960	39.29%	31.80%	1.63%	---	72.72%	1.63%	2.36%	76.71%
1964	47.76%	28.44%	1.58%	---	77.78%	2.01%	1.75%	81.54%
1968	48.67%	27.87%	1.81%	---	78.35%	1.94%	1.86%	82.15%
1972	49.46%	27.86%	2.14%	4.13%	83.59%	2.08%	1.58%	87.25%
1976	50.93%	26.36%	2.62%	4.84%	84.75%	2.06%	1.28%	88.06%
1980	51.40%	26.20%	2.96%	5.07%	85.63%	2.20%	1.03%	88.86%
1984	52.45%	25.99%	2.95%	4.72%	86.11%	2.15%	0.87%	89.13%
1988	54.78%	25.35%	3.02%	4.37%	87.52%	2.00%	0.74%	90.26%
1992	59.80%	22.63%	2.99%	3.71%	89.13%	1.82%	0.52%	91.47%
1996	56.58%	23.53%	3.47%	4.05%	87.63%	2.09%	0.50%	90.22%
2000	62.76%	20.08%	2.95%	3.19%	88.98%	1.87%	0.38%	91.23%
2004	65.74%	19.18%	2.88%	2.79%	90.59%	2.07%	0.28%	92.94%
2008	67.28%	18.64%	2.68%	2.45%	91.05%	2.18%	0.24%	93.47%
2012*	68.82%	18.10%	2.48%	2.11%	91.51%	2.29%	0.20%	94.00%
2012**	68.09%	17.92%	2.54%	2.08%	90.63%	2.34%	0.17%	93.14%

We see four distinct patterns of growth here:

Clark – straight line increase from 39.29% in 1960 to 67.28% in 2008. Astronomical growth.

Washoe and Mineral - straight line decrease from 1960 to 2008. In 1960, Reno almost on par with Las Vegas.

Douglas and Lyon - zig-zag growth. Douglas peaked out in 1996, Lyon peaked out in 1980.

Carson City – sinus curve, main peak in 1980, secondary peak in 1996.

However the general trend for all 6 combined been a straight ascending line, with a very slight blip between 1992 and 1996: in 1960, the five largest counties in Nevada represented 76.71% of the PV. When Carson City came on board in 1972, the statistic automatically jumped, so using 1972 as a starting point here is fairer: 87.25%. In 2008, the six largest counties in Nevada represented 93.47% of the PV. This should show how virtually empty the other 11 counties are.

We can also see from the table that Las Vegas and Reno combined have always dominated the state, only has Las Vegas grows and grows and grows, Reno has shrunk. However, according to new census data, Reno is growing again, so 2012 could hold some surprises for us.

For 2012* I am projecting a possible county % of the PV, based only on the change between 2004 and 2008. This is a straight line projection.

For 2012** I am projecting a possible county % of the PV, based on an progressive average of the change from 2000 to 2004 and then from 2004 to 2008. These values are theoretical values and it will be interesting to see how close I come in 2012.

Here a map of the hispanic and indian large population centers:

 

The above map:

light gold: hispanic population 20%-30%

white: hispanic population under 20%

orange: largest Indian population in Nevada. Together, the indian and hispanic population in Mineral County comes out to 27.9%.

How did the exit polls for Nevada look for Obama vs Kerry?:

Year	White % of	Black % of	Hispanic % of	Asian % of	Other % of	TOTAL:
2008	45% of 69%	94% of 10%	76% of 15%	? of 3%	? of 3%
Actual total	31.05%	9.40%	11.40%	Est. 2.0%	Est. 1.3%	55.15%
----
2004	43% of 77%	86% of 7%	60% of 10%	47% of 3%	56% if 3%
Actual total	33.11%	6.02%	6.00%	1.41%	1.68%	48.22%

If the exit polls are correct (and they add up very, very closely to the actual percentages), then Obama actually did slightly better than Kerry in the white vote, but since the white vote dropped from 77% to 69%, his total percentage out of 100% for the white vote dropped. However, he almost doubled the total DEM percentage for the hispanic vote and increased the black vote by 3% of the national total.

How to predict as 2012 nears? Here is a table of the closest county by county races (margin: under +4%), the so-called „tipping point“ counties (winning margin: less than 4%):

County	Region	Obama %	McCain %	Margin	O-shift	M-shift	Partisan Shift
USA	--	52.88%	45.61%	+7.27%	+4.62%	-5.12%	+9.73%
Nevada	--	55.15%	42.65%	+12.49%	+7.27%	-7.82%	+15.08%
----	--	------	------	------	-----	-----	----
Mineral	W-Eck	46.90%	49.02%	+2.12	+6.89%	-8.39%	-15.28%
Carson City	W-Eck	49.08%	48.22%	+0.86%	+8.22%	-8.78%	+17.00%

The direction of the both pick-up counties in Nevada, especially Carson City, will tell us the direction of the state in 2012. Also, Mineral County will be interesting to watch, but with the overwhelming strength of Clark and Washoe counties, that is obviously where the game is. Statistically seen, Nevada had entered solid Democratic territory.

Conclusion – all nine pick-up states:

Midwest:

In INDIANA, every single county trended more or less democratic, without exception – there was a blue shift that moved the entire state and those overwhelmingly white, rural counties contributed greatly to Obama's narrow win here – yes, the counties that he still lost to McCain. This shows a large level of GOP defection to Obama in 2008. Here, Obama gained 405,028 raw votes over Kerry from 2004, while McCain lost 133,790 raw votes over Bush from 2004, an uneven shift. Indiana's PV growth rate over 2004 was 11.47%. And Obama won by +1.03%.

In OHIO, not every county trended democratic (11 trended GOP), but there were no GOP county pick-ups. Also, in Ohio, the largest cities, all five of them, played the crucial role in moving the state into the democratic column and those overwhelmingly white, rural counties contributed very little to Obama's narrow win, in contrast to Indiana. Surely there were some moderate GOP defections, but there were also a moderate amount of newly registered voters. Here, Obama gained 198,877 raw votes over Kerry's total from 2004, while McCain lost 181,948 raw votes over Bush's total from 2004, a moderate mirror image shift. Ohio's PV growth rate over 2004 was a nominal 1.36%, way under the national PV growth rate of 7.46%. And Obama won by +4.58%.

In IOWA, Obama's win was a sweeping one, reminiscent of Bill Clinton's win from 1992, or even more accurately, of Michael Dukakis' win from 1988, and came closest to the national partisan shift, or „swing“. It was also the most likely pick-up, based on the state's performance in the 2004 GE. A 21 county pick-up and a 98 county trend for the Democratic party in this state is a sign of serious political change and should be a cause of genuine concern for Republican statisticians. Additionally, the continuing trend toward larger urban areas and a slow „emptying“ of rural areas is generally advantageous to the Democratic party. This makes a strong argument for the Democratic party for 2012 and increases the chances that Iowa will be a Democratic retention in the next cycle.

On the other hand, when 25% of all Iowa counties are tipping-point counties (practically all Democratic pick-ups plus some quirky outlier counties) looking forward to 2012, then the state is certainly not cemented into the Democratic column, not yet. Additionally, Iowa will probably be the first primary of 2012, and assuming that Obama runs unchallenged for re-election, then the GOP will have the greater opportunity to do massive voter registration and build excitement on the ground in the Hawkeye state as the Democratic party did in 2008. Most likely, Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin will be visiting Iowa often, starting in early 2010.

South:

In VIRGINIA, there was real resistance to Obama, but in counties that are „emptying out“, so to speak. There was a large poli-demographic shift in VA, with the north and the SE gaining greatly in political strength for the Democratic party. Here there were obviously far fewer GOP defections, if at all (McCain scored more raw votes in VA than Bush from 2004), but far more newly registered and democratic dedicated voters. Most importantly, a +6.30% winning margin is hardly a battleground margin. It is a better margin than Obama scored in OHIO, INDIANA, NORTH CAROLINA and FLORIDA. It is a lean winning margin, but a comfortable one and will require a minimum 12.60% shift back to the GOP in order to regain the state, and I doubt that this shift will come from those 500,000 new voters. The worst case scenario for the GOP is that Obama cements Virginia into the democratic column in his first term, adding the state to core democratic territory and thus making the electoral math for the GOP more difficult. There were, however, 2 GOP pick-ups in this state, the only 2 pick-ups in all nine states Obama picked-up.

In NORTH CAROLINA, Obama achieved a democratic trend in 92 of 100 counties and there were no GOP pick-up counties (see: INDIANA; OHIO). However, there were no counties with partisan shifts above 21%. In Virginia, there were 8 such counties. In Indiana, there were 40 such counties. The densely populated areas pulled through for Obama and he held McCain's winning margins in the red counties low enough to squeak through a bare win.

In FLORIDA, Obama's GOTV effort and hard campaigning were enough to swing Tampa (Hillsborough county) and Clearwater (Pinellas county) back to the democratic party. But the trend was very uneven in Iowa and the GOP achieved a higher numeric percentage of GOP trending counties than in Indiana, Ohio, Virginia or North Carolina. It is indeed fascinating that the very counties that remained true to Jimmy Carter in his 1980 election defeat are now rock-solid republican counties or counties trending republican. There is no statistical indication that race is a factor in this, for most of those counties did not go for either Bill Clinton or Al Gore, both also southern democrats. The explanation is that as these counties are „empyting out“ and losing on electoral firepower, the population that is remaining is more conservatively oriented. Without a doubt, Florida will continue to be a bitter battleground for cycles to come.

West:

In COLORADO, a long-term structural problem has developed for the GOP and has probably already reached the point of no return: the large hispanic immigration into the state, coupled with far flung deep, deep red counties with no potential for large population growth due to the presence of military installations or nationally protected areas, coupled with the growth of new urban areas (and hence, liberal thought) like Broomfield county, has changed the electoral balance in this state. The hispanic population has not yet reached the levels it has in neighboring New Mexico, but the trend is strongly in that direction. And the hispanic community nationally, which was attracted to George W. Bush in 2004 and to some degree in 2000, has swung decidedly to the Democratic party in 2008. There is a strong possibility that the immigration debate from George W. Bush's 2^nd term and the resultant rejection of his immigration reform proposals from conservative wing of the GOP may become the GOP equivalent of the horrible mess that happened to the Democratic party with the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the way it was packaged. Just as there are millions of registered Democrats in the south (see: Oklahoma, Texas) who vote Republican, it is entirely possible that a large cadre of registered Republicans in Colorado and New Mexico will switch sides. Some of them must have already done this in 2008, otherwise Obama could not have achieved such a sweeping partisan-shift. And the fact that the state already shifted strongly to the Democratic party in 2004 and then continued the shift in 2008 means that this is probably not a one-time phenomenon. Colorado is currently a Democratic leaning state, tendency: SAFE DEM.

And if that is not enough: on the very day that I completed this analysis, the following article appeared in POLITICO: GOP sounds alarm on Latino voter gap.

In NEW MEXICO, the same structural problem for the GOP that is developing in Colorado is much more pronounced here and is well past the point of no return. The extremes in New Mexico are even more extreme in Colorado. There can be no doubt about it. Nevada is currently 44% hispanic. The hispanic vote swung very, very strongly for the Democratic party, which was already running strong with the other two minorities of note in the state: the black population and the indian population. This makes New Mexico more of a minority-majority state than ever before, tendency: rising. More than that, there is even room for growth for President Obama in the largest county in the state: Bernalillo. Essentially, everything that applied to Colorado applies in Nevada almost two-fold. Not to mention that the final results from this state exceeded the polling averages shortly before the election. New Mexico is currently a SAFE DEM state.

In NEVADA, the structural problem for the GOP that we see in Colorado and in extreme in New Mexico is also present here. Add to that a monolithic county like Clark County and massive new voter registration and increases in immigration and it all adds up to a mathematical advantage for the Democratic party, as long as the hispanic community is favorable to Obama. And the landslide proportions of his win and the ensuing partisan-shift are not the numbers we see out of a continuing battleground state. Nevada is currently a SAFE DEM state.

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