Nevada 2008 – County by County - Part II
Part I is here.
County-wide analysis:
Here is a large table of all 17 counties in Nevada, sorted three times: first in descending order of partisan shift, second in descending order of margin and third in descending order of percentage of the state-wide popular vote.
This table is based on the raw numbers from: Nevada GE 2008 - Excel Raw-Data and includes each county's:
- location within the state (NE, NC, NW, SE, SC, SW).
-individual growth rate, regardless of it's take in the statewide PV. So, it is possible for a very small county to have a large growth rate and still reflect a smaller percentage of the statewide popular vote.
- % of the statewide PV from 2008 and 2004, plus the difference between the two
- the winning margin and the partisan shift (difference between the margin 2008 and the margin 2004).
Legend:
A negative partisan shift in red (GOP) means the same thing as a positive partisan shift in blue (DEM) and visa-versa. Blue shading = DEM pick-up. There were no GOP pick-ups and no positive GOP partisan shifts / negative Democratic partisans shifts in Nevada.
An underlined value indicates a number that appears to be wrong by 1/100th of a percentage point, but is not, due to rounding to the next 1/100th of a percent.
|
County |
Region |
G Rate |
% of PV'08 |
% of PV'04 |
Diff. |
Margin |
Partisan shift |
|
NW |
-4.23% |
0.19% |
0.23% |
-0.04% |
+21.90% |
-19.99% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
4.64% |
1.66% |
1.85% |
-0.19% |
+40.13% |
-17.93% |
|
|
NW-Tip |
5.53% |
0.59% |
0.65% |
-0.06% |
+29.61% |
-17.63% |
|
|
W-Eck |
2.48% |
2.45% |
2.79% |
-0.34% |
+0.86% |
+17.00% |
|
|
NW-Tip |
13.41% |
18.64% |
19.18% |
-0.53% |
+12.63% |
+16.85% |
|
|
C |
2.39% |
0.22% |
0.25% |
-0.03% |
+42.29% |
-15.57% |
|
|
W-Eck |
-0.86% |
0.24% |
0.28% |
-0.04% |
+2.12% |
-15.28% |
|
|
W-Eck |
23.04% |
2.18% |
2.07% |
+0.11% |
+17.77% |
-14.30% |
|
|
S-Tip |
19.39% |
67.28% |
65.74% |
+1.54% |
+18.99% |
+14.15% |
|
|
WC |
3.59% |
1.10% |
1.23% |
-0.14% |
+31.48% |
-13.75% |
|
|
W-Eck |
8.39% |
2.68% |
2.88% |
-0.20% |
+15.35% |
-13.59% |
|
|
W-Eck |
11.53% |
0.25% |
0.26% |
-0.01% |
+6.00% |
-11.62% |
|
|
SW |
-8.73% |
0.05% |
0.06% |
-0.01% |
+45.33% |
-10.39% |
|
|
SE |
2.93% |
0.22% |
0.25% |
-0.03% |
+46.51% |
-10.21% |
|
|
EC |
1.05% |
0.40% |
0.46% |
-0.06% |
+31.49% |
-8.54% |
|
|
SC |
20.54% |
1.81% |
1.75% |
+0.06% |
+13.21% |
-6.57% |
|
|
C |
0.95% |
0.08% |
0.09% |
-0.01% |
+56.38% |
-1.48% |
How to interpret this table (7 examples):
Example 1: Clark County (pop. approximately 1,865,750, county seat: Las Vegas) is the largest county in Nevada. It accounted for 67.28% of the statewide PV, which means that Clark county alone has more electoral firepower than the other 16 counties twice over! Clark County grew by 1.54% of the statewide PV (it's individual growth rate was 23.04%) over 2004 and is projected to grow more in next cycles, due to demographic movement in the southwest USA. Obama's 58.47-39.48% landslide (margin +18.99%) is the largest Democratic win in this county since 1964. Clark County also has a very different demographic mix than most counties in New Mexico or Colorado. It's demographic make-up is: White 52.3% / Black 10.3% / Indian 1.0% / Asian 7.2% / Hispanic 27.8% (Pew lists the hispanic proportion at 28%). The hispanic population here is less than in Bernalillo County, NM. That being said, the hispanic population in Clark County has increased more than six-fold since 1990.
I have done an extrapolation to see what the race in Nevada would have looked like had Obama won Clark with approximately 63%, 65%, 70% or 75%, assuming that the independent vote and the voting in all other counties would remain unchanged:
Clark County, calculated theoretical raw vote totals based on the actual Clark County raw vote total of 651,172:
61.98% = 403,596 / 35.98% = 234,292 / 2.04% = 13,284 / Margin +169,304
63.98% = 416,620 / 33.98% = 221,268 / 2.04% = 13,284 / Margin +195,352
68.98% = 449,178 / 28.98% = 188,710 / 2.04% = 13,284 / Margin +260,468
73.98% = 481,737 / 23.98% = 156,151 / 2.04% = 13284 / Margin +325,586
|
Clark County alone |
Obama %-NV |
McCain %-NV |
Ind/Oth %-NV |
Margin |
|
Actual: 58.47%- 39.48%-2.05% |
55.15% |
42.65% |
2.20% |
+12.49% |
|
Extrap 1: 61.98%-35.98%-2.04% |
57.51% |
40.30% |
2.19% |
+17.21% |
|
Extrap 1: 63.98%-33.98%-2.04% |
58.85% |
38.95 |
2.19% |
+19.90% |
|
Extrap 2: 68.98%-28.98%-2.04% |
62.22% |
35.59% |
2.19% |
+26.63% |
|
Extrap 3: 73.98%-23.98%-2.04% |
65.58% |
32.23% |
2.19% |
+33.35% |
The purpose of this little exercise is to demonstrate how incredibly influential one single county can be when it accounts for such a overwhelming percentage of the statewide PV. This kind of scenario is not unrealistic: Obama won Denver, CO (75.45%, margin: +52.41%) and Santa Fe, NM (76.94%, margin +55.05) in such proportions!
One more word about Clark County: alone, just the 380,765 votes cast for Obama in this county were more votes than the total votes cast in: Alaska (326,297), Vermont (325,046), North Dakota (317,722), DC (265,853) and Wyoming (254,658). Furthermore, the total votes out of Clark County (651,172) were more than the total votes out of the states just mentioned above + Montana (491,092), Rhode Island (471,766), Hawaii (453,658), Delaware (412,616), South Dakota (381,975). This means that the electoral firepower of Clark County alone surpassed the electoral firepower of 9 states plus DC.
Example 2: Washoe County (pop. approximately 410,443 ,county seat: Reno) is the second largest county in Nevada and the largest Democratic pick-up in Nevada in 2008. Reno has not gone for a Democrat since 1964. Washoe County went for the Republican party from 1968-1988 (6 cycles) with an average landslide margin of +27.83%. Starting in 1992, the GOP continued to win the county, but with single digit margins. In 2004, George W. Bush, Jr. won Washoe with +4.21%, just out of tipping-point range. Obama transformed the county with a +12.63% margin, just slightly higher than the state margin. Though the county has grown by 20.9% since 2000, that is well under the state growth rate of 30.1%. The county is 21% hispanic, up from 17% in 2000, but still under the statewide 25% hispanic population. Washoe accounted for 18.64% of the statewide popular vote in Nevada, but the county has been mostly shrinking in terms of percent of the statewide PV, and that since 1988.
Together with Clark County, the two counties represented an astounding 85.92% of the statewide popular vote!
To be exact, Obama's popular vote from just these two counties (480,436) added up to 49.64% of the total statewide popular vote, which, when you include the 2.20% independent vote, already put him over the top even before one single vote for him was counted in the other 15 counties.
Example 3: Carson City (consolidated municipality, pop. Approximately 54,867), is the capital of the state of Nevada. Carson City has been treated as a county since 1972. Before 1969, Carson City belonged to Ormsby County, which no longer exists. This is the first time that a Democrat has won the capital city of Nevada since the 1940s, though only with a razor-thin +0.82% winning margin, classifying Carson City as a tipping-point „county“ for 2012.
Carson City has a larger white population by percentage than most of Nevada, according to the following demographics: White 73.0% (statewide is 58.0%) / Black 2.1% (statewide is 8.0%) / Indian 2.4% (statewide is 1.4%) / Asian 2.2% (statwide is 6.1%) / Hispanic 19.5% (statewide is 25%) . Carson City accounted for 2.45% of the statewide popular vote.
Together with Clark and Washoe County, the three Democratic counties represented 88.37% of the statewide popular vote! Obama's popular vote just from these three counties totaled 492,059, or 50.84% of the total popular vote. So, Obama's take from the three counties that he won gave him an absolute majority in the state, regardless of the independent vote.
Clark County is growing. Both Washoe County and Carson City are shrinking. There is a work-up on this in Part III.
Example 4: Douglas (pop. approximately 45,180, county seat: Minden) and Lyon (pop. approximately 53,022, county seat: Yerington) counties are the two largest counties remaining in Nevada that stayed with the GOP and both of those counties have done so since before 1960. But both counties were reduced from blowout +28.94% and +32.06% respectively, down to +15.35% and +17.77%, still landslide margins, but definitely reduced from the previous cycle. Johnson (D) was unable to pick-up either of these counties in 1964, so it is no surprise that the GOP retained these counties, which when combined, accounted for 4.86% of the statewide PV. Percentually, Obama's 41.20% in Douglas County is the best showing for a Democrat since 1964 (Johnson: 47.26%) and his 39.83% in Lyon County is the best showing for a Democrat since 1976 (Carter: 44.83%). Douglas County is shrinking slightly, while Lyon County is growing slightly. Douglas County is only 9% hispanic, Lyon County is 15% hispanic.
Example 5: Mineral County (pop. approximately 4,684, county seat: Hawthorne) has become a GOP tipping point county for 2012, having gone for McCain by +2.12%, a negative margin-shift of -15.28. It is a 50-50 bellwether, having gone for Kennedy, Johnson and Carter but it only went for Clinton in 1996 and again stayed with the GOP in 2008. Mineral County accounted for 0.28% of the statewide PV and is 11% hispanic.
Interestingly enough, the counties with the highest swing rates are all counties closest to the California border. The counties closer to Utah and Idaho had the lowest swing rates (margin-shifts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Concerning the margin-shifts from the above table, here a numeric breakdown, for the democratic party for six states:
|
Partisan-shift range |
NEVADA |
NEW MEXICO |
COLORADO |
|
---------------------- |
No (%) of 17 |
No (%) of 33 |
No (%) 64 |
|
+30% and higher |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
No (%) 64 |
|
+25% to 25.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
+20% to +24.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
5 (15.15%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
+15% to +19.99% |
7 (41.18%) |
12 (36.36%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
+10% to +14.99% |
7 (41.18%) |
12 (36.36%) |
12 (18.75%) |
|
+5% to +9.99% |
2 (11.76%) |
3 (9.09%) |
24 (37.50%) |
|
+1% to +4.99% |
1 (5.88%) |
1 (3.04%) |
22 (34.38%) |
|
+0% to +0.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
6 (9.37%) |
|
-0% to -0.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-1% to -4.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-5% to -9.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-10% to -14.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-15% to -19.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
Partisan-shift range |
IOWA |
OHIO |
INDIANA |
|
---------------------- |
No (%) of 99 |
No (%) of 88 |
No (%) 92 |
|
+30% and higher |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
5 (0.54%) |
|
+25% to 25.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
12 (13.01%) |
|
+20% to +24.99% |
3 (3.03%) |
1 (1.14%) |
41 (44.57%) |
|
+15% to +19.99% |
12 (12.12%) |
7 (7.95%) |
16 (17.39%) |
|
+10% to +14.99% |
39 (39.39%) |
15 (17.06%) |
10 (10.87%) |
|
+5% to +9.99% |
23 (23.23%) |
30 (34.09%) |
6 (6.52%) |
|
+1% to +4.99% |
19 (19.19%) |
19 (21.59%) |
2 (2.17%) |
|
+0% to +0.99% |
2 (2.01%) |
5 (5.68%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-0% to -0.99% |
1 (1.01%) |
2 (2.27%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-1% to -4.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
9 (10.22%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-5% to -9.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-10% to -14.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-15% to -19.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
Partisan-shift range |
FLORIDA |
NORTH CAROLINA |
VIRGINIA |
|
---------------------- |
No (%) of |
No (%) of 100 |
No (%) of 134 |
|
+30% and higher |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
+25% to 25.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
3 (2.24%) |
|
+20% to +24.99% |
1 (1.49%) |
2 (2.00%) |
8 (5.97%) |
|
+15% to +19.99% |
1 (1.49%) |
9 (9.00%) |
26 (19.40%) |
|
+10% to +14.99% |
10 (14.93%) |
29 (29.00%) |
37 (27.62%) |
|
+5% to +9.99% |
17 (25.37%) |
29 (29.00%) |
35 (26.12%) |
|
+1% to +4.99% |
11 (16.42%) |
22 (22.00%) |
14 (10.45%) |
|
+0% to +0.99% |
2 (2.99%) |
2 (2.00%) |
2 (1.49%) |
|
-0% to -0.99% |
3 (4.48%) |
2 (2.00%) |
2 (1.49%) |
|
-1% to -4.99% |
11 (16.42%) |
5 (5.00%) |
2 (1.49%) |
|
-5% to -9.99% |
7 (10.45%) |
1 (1.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-10% to -14.99% |
4 (5.97%) |
0 (0.00%) |
4 (2.99%) |
|
-15% to -19.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
1 (0.75%) |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here the 33 county table again, re-sorted by winning margin:
|
County |
Region |
G Rate |
% of PV'08 |
% of PV'04 |
Diff. |
Margin |
Partisan shift |
|
C |
0.95% |
0.08% |
0.09% |
-0.01% |
+56.38% |
-1.48% |
|
|
SE |
2.93% |
0.22% |
0.25% |
-0.03% |
+46.51% |
-10.21% |
|
|
SW |
-8.73% |
0.05% |
0.06% |
-0.01% |
+45.33% |
-10.39% |
|
|
C |
2.39% |
0.22% |
0.25% |
-0.03% |
+42.29% |
-15.57% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
4.64% |
1.66% |
1.85% |
-0.19% |
+40.13% |
-17.93% |
|
|
EC |
1.05% |
0.40% |
0.46% |
-0.06% |
+31.49% |
-8.54% |
|
|
WC |
3.59% |
1.10% |
1.23% |
-0.14% |
+31.48% |
-13.75% |
|
|
NW-Tip |
5.53% |
0.59% |
0.65% |
-0.06% |
+29.61% |
-17.63% |
|
|
NW |
-4.23% |
0.19% |
0.23% |
-0.04% |
+21.90% |
-19.99% |
|
|
S-Tip |
19.39% |
67.28% |
65.74% |
+1.54% |
+18.99% |
+14.15% |
|
|
W-Eck |
23.04% |
2.18% |
2.07% |
+0.11% |
+17.77% |
-14.30% |
|
|
W-Eck |
8.39% |
2.68% |
2.88% |
-0.20% |
+15.35% |
-13.59% |
|
|
SC |
20.54% |
1.81% |
1.75% |
+0.06% |
+13.21% |
-6.57% |
|
|
NW-Tip |
13.41% |
18.64% |
19.18% |
-0.53% |
+12.63% |
+16.85% |
|
|
W-Eck |
11.53% |
0.25% |
0.26% |
-0.01% |
+6.00% |
-11.62% |
|
|
W-Eck |
-0.86% |
0.24% |
0.28% |
-0.04% |
+2.12% |
-15.28% |
|
|
W-Eck |
2.48% |
2.45% |
2.79% |
-0.34% |
+0.86% |
+17.00% |
Here the 17 county table again, re-sorted in descending order of county size, based on % of statewide PV in 2008 (blue shading= DEM pick-up).
To get a picture of how unbalanced this all is between urban and rural counties:
Clark County (67.28%) = all other counties times 2.
Clark + Washoe counties (85.92%) = all other counties times 6.
|
County |
Region |
G Rate |
% of PV'08 |
% of PV'04 |
Diff. |
Margin |
Partisan shift |
|
S-Tip |
19.39% |
67.28% |
65.74% |
+1.54% |
+18.99% |
+14.15% |
|
|
NW-Tip |
13.41% |
18.64% |
19.18% |
-0.53% |
+12.63% |
+16.85% |
|
|
W-Eck |
8.39% |
2.68% |
2.88% |
-0.20% |
+15.35% |
-13.59% |
|
|
W-Eck |
2.48% |
2.45% |
2.79% |
-0.34% |
+0.86% |
+17.00% |
|
|
W-Eck |
23.04% |
2.18% |
2.07% |
+0.11% |
+17.77% |
-14.30% |
|
|
SC |
20.54% |
1.81% |
1.75% |
+0.06% |
+13.21% |
-6.57% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
4.64% |
1.66% |
1.85% |
-0.19% |
+40.13% |
-17.93% |
|
|
WC |
3.59% |
1.10% |
1.23% |
-0.14% |
+31.48% |
-13.75% |
|
|
NW-Tip |
5.53% |
0.59% |
0.65% |
-0.06% |
+29.61% |
-17.63% |
|
|
EC |
1.05% |
0.40% |
0.46% |
-0.06% |
+31.49% |
-8.54% |
|
|
W-Eck |
11.53% |
0.25% |
0.26% |
-0.01% |
+6.00% |
-11.62% |
|
|
W-Eck |
-0.86% |
0.24% |
0.28% |
-0.04% |
+2.12% |
-15.28% |
|
|
C |
2.39% |
0.22% |
0.25% |
-0.03% |
+42.29% |
-15.57% |
|
|
SE |
2.93% |
0.22% |
0.25% |
-0.03% |
+46.51% |
-10.21% |
|
|
NW |
-4.23% |
0.19% |
0.23% |
-0.04% |
+21.90% |
-19.99% |
|
|
C |
0.95% |
0.08% |
0.09% |
-0.01% |
+56.38% |
-1.48% |
|
|
SW |
-8.73% |
0.05% |
0.06% |
-0.01% |
+45.33% |
-10.39% |