NEW MEXICO 2008 – County by County - Part II
County-wide analysis:
Here is a large table of all 33 counties in New Mexico, sorted three times: first in descending order of partisan shift, second in descending order of margin and third in descending order of percentage of the state-wide popular vote.
This table is based on the raw numbers from: New Mexico GE 2008 - Excel Raw-Data
The table includes each county's:
- location within the state (NE, NC, NW, SE, SC, SW).
-individual growth rate, regardless of it's take in the statewide PV. So, it is possible for a very small county to have a large growth rate and still reflect a smaller percentage of the statewide popular vote.
- % of the statewide PV from 2008 and 2004, plus the difference between the two
- the winning margin and the partisan shift (difference between the margin 2008 and the margin 2004).
Legend:
A negative partisan shift in red (GOP) means the same thing as a positive partisan shift in blue (DEM) and visa-versa. Blue shading = DEM pick-up. There were no GOP pick-ups and no positive GOP partisan shifts / negative Democratic partisans shifts in New Mexico.
An underlined value indicates a number that appears to be wrong by 1/100th of a percentage point, but is not, due to rounding to the next 1/100th of a percent.
|
County |
Region |
G Rate |
% of PV'08 |
% of PV'04 |
Diff. |
Margin |
Partisan shift |
|
NE |
-2.34% |
0.33% |
0.37% |
-0.04% |
+57.93% |
+24.39% |
|
|
C-EC |
-3.13% |
0.26% |
0.30% |
-0.04% |
+42.67% |
+23.88% |
|
|
W-WC |
21.50% |
1.10% |
0.99% |
+0.11% |
+29.64% |
+23.81% |
|
|
NC-NW |
12.94% |
2.04% |
1.98% |
+0.06% |
+50.87% |
+20.17% |
|
|
C |
11.10% |
3.48% |
3.44% |
+0.04% |
+7.72% |
+20.03% |
|
|
SC |
4.83% |
2.62% |
2.75% |
-0.12% |
+19.28% |
-17.48% |
|
|
C-WC |
11.28% |
34.42% |
33.96% |
+0.47% |
+21.36% |
+17.15% |
|
|
C |
0.56% |
0.95% |
1.04% |
-0.09% |
+21.08% |
+16.89% |
|
|
NE |
6.81% |
1.56% |
1.60% |
-0.04% |
+60.60% |
+16.28% |
|
|
NW |
12.53% |
2.80% |
2.73% |
+0.07% |
+43.91% |
+16.27% |
|
|
SW-Tip |
9.84% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
0.00 |
+5.29% |
+16.14% |
|
|
C |
6.67% |
0.84% |
0.86% |
-0.02% |
+9.34% |
+15.87% |
|
|
EC |
1.06% |
1.74% |
1.89% |
-0.15% |
+34.14% |
-15.62% |
|
|
N (C) |
13.83% |
2.03% |
1.96% |
+0.07% |
+64.85% |
+15.50% |
|
|
NC-NW |
31.61% |
7.06% |
5.89% |
+1.17% |
+12.75% |
+15.46% |
|
|
SE-Tip |
2.55% |
2.25% |
2.40% |
-0.16% |
+44.19% |
-15.13% |
|
|
NE |
6.97% |
0.77% |
0.79% |
-0.02% |
+10.73% |
+15.05% |
|
|
SW-Tip |
-0.66% |
0.24% |
0.26% |
-0.02% |
+2.92% |
+14.12% |
|
|
SW |
11.81% |
8.35% |
8.19% |
+0.15% |
+17.63% |
+14.06% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
-7.39% |
0.21% |
0.25% |
-0.04% |
+42.19% |
-13.26% |
|
|
SW |
2.71% |
1.66% |
1.77% |
-0.11% |
+19.89% |
+12.72% |
|
|
C-NC |
-1.14% |
1.33% |
1.48% |
-0.15% |
+6.87% |
+12.26% |
|
|
EC |
5.14% |
0.13% |
0.13% |
-0.01% |
+30.36% |
-12.44% |
|
|
SE |
1.88% |
2.66% |
2.87% |
-0.21% |
+24.67% |
-12.41% |
|
|
C-NC |
9.10% |
8.70% |
8.75% |
-0.05% |
+55.05% |
+11.84% |
|
|
SW |
6.36% |
0.66% |
0.68% |
-0.02% |
+12.12% |
-11.84% |
|
|
NW-Tip |
3.34% |
5.60% |
5.95% |
-0.35% |
+21.16% |
-11.46% |
|
|
EC |
-5.94% |
0.81% |
0.94% |
-0.14% |
+29.88% |
-10.92% |
|
|
C-SC |
7.57% |
1.17% |
1.19% |
-0.02% |
+25.43% |
-10.60% |
|
|
EC-NE |
-2.94% |
0.48% |
0.54% |
-0.06% |
+20.52% |
-9.57% |
|
|
W-SW |
5.97% |
0.25% |
0.26% |
-0.01% |
+34.75% |
-9.20% |
|
|
SE |
-0.87% |
2.42% |
2.68% |
-0.26% |
+25.63% |
-5.89% |
|
|
NE |
-2.80% |
0.08% |
0.09% |
-0.01% |
+15.65% |
-3.13% |
How to interpret this table (7 examples):
Example 1: Bernalillo County (pop. approximately 635,139, county seat: Albuquerque), the largest county in New Mexico, went for Obama in a 60.03%-38.67% landslide, equalling a +21.36% winning margin. It is one of the 12 counties in the special additional study, for Bernaillo accounted for a whalloping 34.42% of the statewide PV. Bernalillo's margin-shift of +17.15%, itself a massive landslide margin-shift, was Obama's sixth largest in the state. This county accounted for 27.66% of the statewide PV in 1960 and reached a peak of 35.21% in 1992, the year that this county switched sides from the Republican party to the Democratic party. After dropping sharply in 1996, Bernalillo has begun to grow in electoral firepower again. In terms of % of the respective statewide PV, Bernalillo county is the second largest county of all of the pick-up states, behind Clark County (NV) and carries immense weight in New Mexico. Now, Albuquerque is a liberal leaning city and one could ask why Obama did not score a massive 75% win here as he did in Denver, Co. Part of the answer is the presence of Kirtland Air Force Base, with a great deal of military personnel and their families. And military personnel tend to vote more Republican. There is, however, room for Obama to improve in this county in 2012, as hispanic immigration into Bernalillo County has picked up over 2008. Currently, Bernalillo County is 45.2% hispanic, up 3% from 2000; the statistic is projected to land at around 47% in 2010..
I have done an extrapolation to see what the race in New Mexico would have looked like had Obama won Bernalillo with approximately 65%, 70% or 75%, assuming that the independent vote and the voting in all other counties would remain unchanged:
Bernalillo, calculated theoretical raw vote totals based on the actual raw vote total of 285,778:
64.35% = 183,898 / 34.35% = 98,165 / 1.30% = 3,715 / Margin +85,733
69.35% = 198,187 / 29.35% = 83,876 / 1.30% = 3,715 / Margin +114,311
74.35% = 212,476 / 24.35% = 69,587 / 1.30% = 3,715 / Margin +142,889
|
Bernalillo alone |
Obama %-NM |
McCain %-NM |
Ind/Oth %-NM |
Margin |
|
Actual: 60.03%-38.67%-1.30% |
56.91% |
41.78% |
1.31% |
+15.13% |
|
Extrap 1: 64.35%-24.35%-1.30% |
58.39% |
40.29% |
1.31% |
+18.10% |
|
Extrap 2: 69.35%-29.35%-1.30% |
60.12% |
38.57% |
1.31% |
+21.55% |
|
Extrap 3: 74.35%-24.35%-1.30% |
61.84% |
36.85% |
1.31% |
+24.99% |
The purpose of this little exercise is to demonstrate how incredibly influential one single county can be when it accounts for such a large percentage of the statewide PV. This kind of scenario is not unrealistic: Obama won Santa Fe county with even more: 76.94%, margin +55.05%!
Example 2: Sandoval County (pop. approximately 122,298, county seat: Bernalillo) is the Democratic pick-up county that came closest to the state margin-shift. The results from Sandoval County created a +15.46% margin-shift, wheareas the statewide margin-shift was +15.92%. Difference: -0.42%. The winning and losing percents for both 2008 and 2004 were not close to the statewide figues, but the shift (or „swing“) between them was practically on the money.
Sandoval's take of the statewide PV jumped from 5.89% to 7.06% and as a result, Sandoval County switched electoral places with San Juan County. Sandoval county had the largest growth rate of any county: 31.61%. We can also statistically prove that the increase was overwhelmingly on Obama's side: Obama scored 11,248 more votes in 2008 than Kerry did in 2004. McCain scored 2,565 more votes in 2008 than Bush did in 2004. That is a 4.39 to 1 Democratic-to-Republican ratio, meaning that almost 4 1/2 times more new voters chose Democratic than Republican. Incidentally, Sandoval County is the only county where McCain did not lose votes over Bush from 2004. Obama's +12.74% winning margin in Sandoval County turned it from a Republican tipping-point county in 2004 (+2.71%) into Democratic landslide territory. The hispanic percent of the population of Sandoval County has jumped from 29% in 2000 to 32% in 2007. It is now estimated at 32.5% at the middle of 2008.This puts Sandoval still in the bottom third of New Mexico counties with sizeable hispanic populations, however at the projected growth rate, the county should reach 34% or 35% in 2010.
Example 3: fellow Democratic pick-up Hidalgo County (pop. approximately 4,910, county seat: Lordsburg) which Obama won by a slim margin of +2.92% is the only tipping point county in New Mexico. It will be one of the key counties to watch in 2012, for it is a bellwether county and has gone with the Electoral College winner in every election since since 1924. Hidalgo County is a minority-majority county: it's population is 58% hispanic while at the same time, the total population of the county is shrinking. It has shrunk by 17.2% since 2000.
Example 4: San Juan County (pop.approximately 122,500, county seat: Aztec), the „four corners“ county in NW New Mexico, is the 4th largest county in New Mexico and the 5th largest in it's take of the statewide popular vote (5.60%); it is the only New Mexico county of size that remained true to the GOP in 2008. This county has voted Republican in 12 of the last 13 cycles. Johnson (D) eeked out a win in San Juan County in 1964 by a mere 0.67%. The average winning margin here is over +40% in the case of a Republican landslide and +30% in the case of a moderate Republican win. McCain won this county with a landslide +21.16% margin. However, he lost 1,656 votes over Bush's total from 2004, while Obama gained 3,185 votes over Kerry's haul from 2004. The margin-shift in this county was -11.46%. Bill Clinton did better here, both in 1992 and 1996. Jimmy Carter did better here as well. If there is a county in NM that is pretty much immune to a Democratic wave, then it is this county, which is 99.56% (dry) land and 0.44% water. Indian Reservations make up 63% of the county. It is a county of geological extremes: volcanic structures, buttes, mesas, badlands, and fertile river valleys . San Juan county is 52% white, 38% indian and 17% hispanic. The county is 60.3% white / 36.2% indian / 17.4% hispanic. It's population grew by 7.6% since 2000.
Example 5: Los Alamos County (pop. approximately 18,150, county seat: Los Alamos) of „Manhattan Project“ fame from WWII, is a small but important Democratic pick-up as the county has voted reliably Republican for 40 years straight since 1968 (military community, small hispanic community: 14.7%). Neither Carter nor Clinton were able to pick-up this county, but Obama did, by +6.87%, making for a +12.26% partisan-shift, under the statewide partisan-shift. Los Alamos has been losing on electoral firepower since 1984, when it then accounted for 2.01% of the PV. In 2008, it accounted for 1.33% of the PV. The ideological shift in this county, which is surrounded on all sides by deep „blue“ counties, is an indicator of long-term statewide trends. Los Alamos county is shrinking in population.
Example 6: Doña Ana County (pop. approximately 201,603, county seat: Las Cruces), the second largest county in New Mexico, went for Obama with a landslide +17.63% margin and a sizeable +14.06% margin shift. This classifies the county as a former tipping point county from 2004 that has become landslide Democratic territory. Until 1992, this county was reliable Republican territory. Bill Clinton won it in a three-man race by +8.11%, which he extended to +11.99% in 1996. George W. Bush, Jr. reversed the Democratic gains in 2000 and in 2004 this county swung and trended Republican. He reduced Clinton's +11.99% margin to +5.68% in the hotly contested 2000 race against Al Gore, where Gore won the state with just 0.06% of the popular vote. Bush again cut into the Democratic lead in Doña Ana County in 2004, decreasing the margin to +3.57%. Kerry lost the state to Bush by 0.79%.This countywide electoral history is clear evidence that the hispanic vote swung heavily for the Democratic party in 2008, as Doña Ana County is 65% hispanic. And it continues to grow in size.
Example 7: Otero County (pop. approximately 63,000, county seat: Alamagordo) was the Republican retention that was won with the largest negative partisan-shift in the state: -17.48%. This is just 1.56% more than the statewide partisan-shift. However, Otero county is a massive military county. The White Sands Missile Range, which covers 3,200 square miles and is the largest military installation in the US, is mostly in Otero county and covers approximately 40% of the county. Amazing as it sounds, Obama 's 39.56% is the highest percentage a Democrat has scored since Jimmy Carter (a navy man) in 1976, and even Carter couldn't pick up the county. And though +19.28% is a punishing landslide margin favoring the GOP, the Republicans are used to +40% margins in this county. The county is 34% hispanic, well under the level of the Democratic counties in NM.
Example 8: Rio Arriba (pop. approximately 40,692, county seat: Tierra Amarilla) and San Miguel (pop. approximately 28,558, county seat: Las Vegas, NM) counties, with +50.87 and +60.60% margins for Obama, respectively, are worth mention as these two counties have gone consistently Democratic for at least 13 cycles in a row, even through the Nixon landslide of 1972 and both Reagan landslides. These counties are the Democratic equivalent of a county like San Juan County. These are relatively small counties: Rio Arriba accounted for 2.04% of the PV and San Miguel accounted for 1.56% of the same. In both Rio Arriba and San Miguel, Obama had landslide partisan-shifts of +20.17% and +16.28%. His winning percents: 74.99% in Rio Arriba, 79.45% in San Miguel. To achieve such numbers in these counties is something that a Democrat can only dream of in states like Ohio, Florida or Pennsylvania. Rio Arriba County is 72% hispanic, it was 73% hispanic in 2000. San Miguel County is 77% hispanic, it was 78% hispanic in 2000. Both of the counties are shrinking in population.
Example 9: Taos (pop. approximately 31,550, county seat: Taos) and Lea (pop. approximately 59,160, county seat: Lovington) Counties are excellent examples of core Democratic and GOP counties that are counterbalance each other. Taos grew to 2.03% of the PV in 2008, while Lea shrunk to 2.25% of the same. If both counties continue to move at the same rate, then they will be exactly equal to each other within 8 years. Taos usually goes for the Democratic candidate with up to +40% margins. Obama set a world record in Taos county with 81.82% of the PV and a 64.85% winning margin. This was also his largest winning margin in any county from the nine pick up states. However, Lea still went for McCain with 71.58% of the PV and a 44.19% margin. Obama`s +10,950 raw vote margin just slightly erased McCain's +8,239 raw vote margin and then some.
In 2004, the situation was reversed: Bush won Lea with +59.31% (margin) and Kerry took Taos with +49.35%. And in 2004, Bush's +10,784 raw vote margin in Lea County slightly erased Kerry's +7,321 raw vote margin in Taos County. Facit: 2004 and 2008 in these two counterweight counties are mirror images of each other.
The demographics of Taos County (minority-majority county): 37.3% white / 54.8% hispanic / 7.1% indian / 0.7% black.
The demographics of Lea County: 46.8% white / 46.6% hispanic / 1.3% indian / 5.3% black.
Taos county borders Costilla County (the most Democratic county) in Colorado. Lea county borders Texas.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Concerning the margin-shifts from the above table, here a numeric breakdown, for the democratic party for six states:
|
Partisan-shift range |
NEVADA |
NEW MEXICO |
COLORADO |
|
---------------------- |
No (%) of 17 |
No (%) of 33 |
No (%) 64 |
|
+30% and higher |
|
0 (0.00%) |
No (%) 64 |
|
+25% to 25.99% |
|
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
+20% to +24.99% |
|
5 (15.15%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
+15% to +19.99% |
|
12 (36.36%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
+10% to +14.99% |
|
12 (36.36%) |
12 (18.75%) |
|
+5% to +9.99% |
|
3 (9.09%) |
24 (37.50%) |
|
+1% to +4.99% |
|
1 (3.04%) |
22 (34.38%) |
|
+0% to +0.99% |
|
0 (0.00%) |
6 (9.37%) |
|
-0% to -0.99% |
|
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-1% to -4.99% |
|
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-5% to -9.99% |
|
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-10% to -14.99% |
|
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-15% to -19.99% |
|
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
Partisan-shift range |
IOWA |
OHIO |
INDIANA |
|
---------------------- |
No (%) of 99 |
No (%) of 88 |
No (%) 92 |
|
+30% and higher |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
5 (0.54%) |
|
+25% to 25.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
12 (13.01%) |
|
+20% to +24.99% |
3 (3.03%) |
1 (1.14%) |
41 (44.57%) |
|
+15% to +19.99% |
12 (12.12%) |
7 (7.95%) |
16 (17.39%) |
|
+10% to +14.99% |
39 (39.39%) |
15 (17.06%) |
10 (10.87%) |
|
+5% to +9.99% |
23 (23.23%) |
30 (34.09%) |
6 (6.52%) |
|
+1% to +4.99% |
19 (19.19%) |
19 (21.59%) |
2 (2.17%) |
|
+0% to +0.99% |
2 (2.01%) |
5 (5.68%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-0% to -0.99% |
1 (1.01%) |
2 (2.27%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-1% to -4.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
9 (10.22%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-5% to -9.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-10% to -14.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-15% to -19.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
Partisan-shift range |
FLORIDA |
NORTH CAROLINA |
VIRGINIA |
|
---------------------- |
No (%) of |
No (%) of 100 |
No (%) of 134 |
|
+30% and higher |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
+25% to 25.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
3 (2.24%) |
|
+20% to +24.99% |
1 (1.49%) |
2 (2.00%) |
8 (5.97%) |
|
+15% to +19.99% |
1 (1.49%) |
9 (9.00%) |
26 (19.40%) |
|
+10% to +14.99% |
10 (14.93%) |
29 (29.00%) |
37 (27.62%) |
|
+5% to +9.99% |
17 (25.37%) |
29 (29.00%) |
35 (26.12%) |
|
+1% to +4.99% |
11 (16.42%) |
22 (22.00%) |
14 (10.45%) |
|
+0% to +0.99% |
2 (2.99%) |
2 (2.00%) |
2 (1.49%) |
|
-0% to -0.99% |
3 (4.48%) |
2 (2.00%) |
2 (1.49%) |
|
-1% to -4.99% |
11 (16.42%) |
5 (5.00%) |
2 (1.49%) |
|
-5% to -9.99% |
7 (10.45%) |
1 (1.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-10% to -14.99% |
4 (5.97%) |
0 (0.00%) |
4 (2.99%) |
|
-15% to -19.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
1 (0.75%) |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here the 33 county table again, re-sorted by winning margin:
|
County |
Region |
G Rate |
% of PV'08 |
% of PV'04 |
Diff. |
Margin |
Partisan shift |
|
N (C) |
13.83% |
2.03% |
1.96% |
+0.07% |
+64.85% |
+15.50% |
|
|
NE |
6.81% |
1.56% |
1.60% |
-0.04% |
+60.60% |
+16.28% |
|
|
NE |
-2.34% |
0.33% |
0.37% |
-0.04% |
+57.93% |
+24.39% |
|
|
C-NC |
9.10% |
8.70% |
8.75% |
-0.05% |
+55.05% |
+11.84% |
|
|
NC-NW |
12.94% |
2.04% |
1.98% |
+0.06% |
+50.87% |
+20.17% |
|
|
SE-Tip |
2.55% |
2.25% |
2.40% |
-0.16% |
+44.19% |
-15.13% |
|
|
NW |
12.53% |
2.80% |
2.73% |
+0.07% |
+43.91% |
+16.27% |
|
|
C-EC |
-3.13% |
0.26% |
0.30% |
-0.04% |
+42.67% |
+23.88% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
-7.39% |
0.21% |
0.25% |
-0.04% |
+42.19% |
-13.26% |
|
|
W-SW |
5.97% |
0.25% |
0.26% |
-0.01% |
+34.75% |
-9.20% |
|
|
EC |
1.06% |
1.74% |
1.89% |
-0.15% |
+34.14% |
-15.62% |
|
|
EC |
5.14% |
0.13% |
0.13% |
-0.01% |
+30.36% |
-12.44% |
|
|
EC |
-5.94% |
0.81% |
0.94% |
-0.14% |
+29.88% |
-10.92% |
|
|
W-WC |
21.50% |
1.10% |
0.99% |
+0.11% |
+29.64% |
+23.81% |
|
|
SE |
-0.87% |
2.42% |
2.68% |
-0.26% |
+25.63% |
-5.89% |
|
|
C-SC |
7.57% |
1.17% |
1.19% |
-0.02% |
+25.43% |
-10.60% |
|
|
SE |
1.88% |
2.66% |
2.87% |
-0.21% |
+24.67% |
-12.41% |
|
|
C-WC |
11.28% |
34.42% |
33.96% |
+0.47% |
+21.36% |
+17.15% |
|
|
NW-Tip |
3.34% |
5.60% |
5.95% |
-0.35% |
+21.16% |
-11.46% |
|
|
C |
0.56% |
0.95% |
1.04% |
-0.09% |
+21.08% |
+16.89% |
|
|
EC-NE |
-2.94% |
0.48% |
0.54% |
-0.06% |
+20.52% |
-9.57% |
|
|
SW |
2.71% |
1.66% |
1.77% |
-0.11% |
+19.89% |
+12.72% |
|
|
SC |
4.83% |
2.62% |
2.75% |
-0.12% |
+19.28% |
-17.48% |
|
|
SW |
11.81% |
8.35% |
8.19% |
+0.15% |
+17.63% |
+14.06% |
|
|
NE |
-2.80% |
0.08% |
0.09% |
-0.01% |
+15.65% |
-3.13% |
|
|
NC-NW |
31.61% |
7.06% |
5.89% |
+1.17% |
+12.75% |
+15.46% |
|
|
NE |
6.97% |
0.77% |
0.79% |
-0.02% |
+10.73% |
+15.05% |
|
|
SW |
6.36% |
0.66% |
0.68% |
-0.02% |
+12.12% |
-11.84% |
|
|
C |
6.67% |
0.84% |
0.86% |
-0.02% |
+9.34% |
+15.87% |
|
|
C |
11.10% |
3.48% |
3.44% |
+0.04% |
+7.72% |
+20.03% |
|
|
C-NC |
-1.14% |
1.33% |
1.48% |
-0.15% |
+6.87% |
+12.26% |
|
|
SW-Tip |
9.84% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
0.00 |
+5.29% |
+16.14% |
|
|
SW-Tip |
-0.66% |
0.24% |
0.26% |
-0.02% |
+2.92% |
+14.12% |
Here the 33 county table again, re-sorted in descending order of county size, based on % of statewide PV in 2008 (blue shading= DEM pick-up).
To get a picture of how unbalanced this all is between urban and rural counties:
Bernalillo county (34.42%) = bottom 27 counties + most of San Juan county.
Bernalillo and Santa Fe counties (43.12%) = bottom 29 counties.
Bernalillo, Santa Fe and Doña Ana counties (51.47%) = all other counties combined.
|
County |
Region |
G Rate |
% of PV'08 |
% of PV'04 |
Diff. |
Margin |
Partisan shift |
|
C-WC |
11.28% |
34.42% |
33.96% |
+0.47% |
+21.36% |
+17.15% |
|
|
C-NC |
9.10% |
8.70% |
8.75% |
-0.05% |
+55.05% |
+11.84% |
|
|
SW |
11.81% |
8.35% |
8.19% |
+0.15% |
+17.63% |
+14.06% |
|
|
NC-NW |
31.61% |
7.06% |
5.89% |
+1.17% |
+12.75% |
+15.46% |
|
|
NW-Tip |
3.34% |
5.60% |
5.95% |
-0.35% |
+21.16% |
-11.46% |
|
|
C |
11.10% |
3.48% |
3.44% |
+0.04% |
+7.72% |
+20.03% |
|
|
NW |
12.53% |
2.80% |
2.73% |
+0.07% |
+43.91% |
+16.27% |
|
|
SE |
1.88% |
2.66% |
2.87% |
-0.21% |
+24.67% |
-12.41% |
|
|
SC |
4.83% |
2.62% |
2.75% |
-0.12% |
+19.28% |
-17.48% |
|
|
SE |
-0.87% |
2.42% |
2.68% |
-0.26% |
+25.63% |
-5.89% |
|
|
SE-Tip |
2.55% |
2.25% |
2.40% |
-0.16% |
+44.19% |
-15.13% |
|
|
NC-NW |
12.94% |
2.04% |
1.98% |
+0.06% |
+50.87% |
+20.17% |
|
|
N (C) |
13.83% |
2.03% |
1.96% |
+0.07% |
+64.85% |
+15.50% |
|
|
EC |
1.06% |
1.74% |
1.89% |
-0.15% |
+34.14% |
-15.62% |
|
|
SW |
2.71% |
1.66% |
1.77% |
-0.11% |
+19.89% |
+12.72% |
|
|
NE |
6.81% |
1.56% |
1.60% |
-0.04% |
+60.60% |
+16.28% |
|
|
C-NC |
-1.14% |
1.33% |
1.48% |
-0.15% |
+6.87% |
+12.26% |
|
|
C-SC |
7.57% |
1.17% |
1.19% |
-0.02% |
+25.43% |
-10.60% |
|
|
W-WC |
21.50% |
1.10% |
0.99% |
+0.11% |
+29.64% |
+23.81% |
|
|
SW-Tip |
9.84% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
0.00 |
+5.29% |
+16.14% |
|
|
C |
0.56% |
0.95% |
1.04% |
-0.09% |
+21.08% |
+16.89% |
|
|
C |
6.67% |
0.84% |
0.86% |
-0.02% |
+9.34% |
+15.87% |
|
|
EC |
-5.94% |
0.81% |
0.94% |
-0.14% |
+29.88% |
-10.92% |
|
|
NE |
6.97% |
0.77% |
0.79% |
-0.02% |
+10.73% |
+15.05% |
|
|
SW |
6.36% |
0.66% |
0.68% |
-0.02% |
+12.12% |
-11.84% |
|
|
EC-NE |
-2.94% |
0.48% |
0.54% |
-0.06% |
+20.52% |
-9.57% |
|
|
NE |
-2.34% |
0.33% |
0.37% |
-0.04% |
+57.93% |
+24.39% |
|
|
C-EC |
-3.13% |
0.26% |
0.30% |
-0.04% |
+42.67% |
+23.88% |
|
|
W-SW |
5.97% |
0.25% |
0.26% |
-0.01% |
+34.75% |
-9.20% |
|
|
SW-Tip |
-0.66% |
0.24% |
0.26% |
-0.02% |
+2.92% |
+14.12% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
-7.39% |
0.21% |
0.25% |
-0.04% |
+42.19% |
-13.26% |
|
|
EC |
5.14% |
0.13% |
0.13% |
-0.01% |
+30.36% |
-12.44% |
|
|
NE |
-2.80% |
0.08% |
0.09% |
-0.01% |
+15.65% |
-3.13% |