Batch 5: Information Analysis for Decisions
Course Code: 05 QT 01
Faculty: Prof. K. G. Satheesh Kumar
Core Course. 5 Credits. 60Hrs
Course Outline Scores & Attendance IAD Project Links.
You know how dumb the average person is?
Well, by definition, half the population is dumber than that!
Sessions
#01/60: 29 Sep 2009: Decision Making (ppt). Good to read: Harvard Business Essentials, Decision Making - 5 Steps to Better Results, HBS Press, 2006 (Book available in ASB library)
#02/60:1 Oct 2009 Descriptive Statistics: Introduction, measures of location
#03/60: 9 Oct 2009 Read Chapter 1 of Aczel &Sounderpandian (A&S)
#04/60: 9 Oct 2009 Variables: Quantitative & Qualitative -
#05/60: 12 Oct 2009 Stevens Taxonomy (Scales of measurement): Nominal, Ordinal, Interval & Ratio
#06/60: 14 Oct 2009 Measures of spread / variability
#07/60: 15 Oct 2009 Grouped Data and Histogram
#08/60: 16 Oct 2009 Skewness and Kurtosis
Chebyshev's theorem
Stem and leaf; box and whisker plots See a ppt on summarising data.
Useful links: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 More links: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Problem Solving Assignment #1 Due by 5pm on 21 Oct, degraded thereafter @ 2 pts per 24 hrs or part thereof.
Assignment #1 received within timeline from Annada, Thomas, Karthika, Ashok, Shruthi, Jayan, Rahul, Kiran, Kanimozhi, Hasil, Ansu, Johncy, Anish, Aravind, Nathasha, Vinita, Sreehari, Sujith, Neethu, Nimisha
Read Chapter 2 of Aczel &Sounderpandian (A&S)
#09/60: 16 Oct 2009 Basics of Probability, Addition law, Product law, Conditional probability,
#10/60: 21 Oct 2009 MECE events, Independent events, Joint Probability Table,
#11/60: 22 Oct 2009 The law of total probability and Bayes' Theorem
#12/60: 23 Oct 2009 Elements of Probability. Counting Principles. Set Theory. Bayes' Theorem.
#13/60: 26 Oct 2009 IAD Problem Solving Assignment #1: Attempted on board by individual students
Name (CoC): Aravind (1.0), Ashok (0.0), Jayan (1.0), Shruthi (1.0), Rahul (1.0), Kanimozhi (0.75), Vinita (1.0), Nimisha (1.0), Thomas (1.0), Neethu (0.75), Anish (1.0), Annada (1.0), Karthika (1.0), Ansu (1.0), Kiran (1.0), Hasil (1.0), Johncy (1.0), Sujith (1.0), Sreehari (1.0), Natasha (1.0).
Read Chapter 3 of Aczel &Sounderpandian (A&S)
#14/60: 27 Oct 2009 Random Variables - discrete and continuous
#15/60: 28 Oct 2009 Expected Value, sum and linear composites
#16/60: 30 Oct 2009 Discrete probability distributions Theoretical Distributions.
Continuous Probability Distributions
IAD Project Proposals received by 31 Oct 2009 Annada, Natasha, Sreehari, Vineeta: Alchohol Consumption in India. Aravind, Joncy, Jayan, Sujith: Sachin Tendulkar's Cricket Career Ashok Chacko, Nimisha, Thomas, Hasil: F1 Race assessment over 11 years Anish, Kiran, Rahul, Shruthi: Cars and Accessories sold over 30 months in a Hyandai dealership Ansu, Neethu, Kanimozhi, Karthika: Telecom Companies in India. |
#17/60: 02 Nov 2009
#18/60: 04 Nov 2009
#19/60: 04 Nov 2009
#20/60: 07 Nov 2009: Surprise Quiz 1. See Suggested Answers.
#21/60: 07 Nov 2009 Read Chapter 4 of Aczel &Sounderpandian (A&S)
#22/60: 09 Nov 2009: Surprise Quiz 2 and suggested answers.
Problem Solving Assignment #2 Due by 5pm on 13 Nov, degraded thereafter @ 2 pts per 24 hrs or part thereof.
#23/60: 13 Nov 2009:Normal Distribution
#24/60: 16 Nov 2009: Class Test 1: Questions and suggested answers.
#25/60: 17 Nov 2009: Normal Distribution Problems solved in class by students
#26/60: 17 Nov 2009: Normal Distribution Problems solved in class by students
#27/60: 18 Nov 2009: Normal Distribution Problems solved in class by students
#28/60: 18 Nov 2009: Normal Distribution Problems solved in class by students
Read Chapters 1 & 2 of Anderson, Sweeny, Williams, "An Introduction to Management Science, 10th Ed." Thomson Asia Pte Ltd.
Several copies are available in library.
#29/60: 19 Nov 2009: Decision Making
Introduction to Linear Programming: Formulation of simple problems (ppt)
Practice: 1 2 3 4. MIT Course: Optimization Methods OR Course:University of Texas, Austin
#30/60: 21 Nov 2009: CoC test for Assignment 2 (15 minutes), followed be LP formulation, Excel Solver
#31/60: 25 Nov 2009: LP Formulation Continued. Use of excel solver, use of graphical solution (xls template)
Form teams for presentations on LP applications (To be rated as per component B)
Course Outline Course Objective To equip students with the basic quantitative techniques for the analysis of business problems for objective decisions. Course Syllabus Organizing Data -Table construction; Frequency Distribution and Histograms; Ogive curves and uses; Charts (4 hrs) Notion of constants, variables and functions; linear and non-linear functions: applications. Graphs of functions; slope and its relevance for marginal analysis. Maximum and minimum of non-linear functions using graphs (6 hrs) Cost and profit functions; Break-even analysis (4 hrs) Frequency curves; concept of frequency density for different values of the variable;understanding of skewed distributions; peaked and flat distributions (4 hrs) Summary Measures -Central Tendency; Relevance of mean, median and mode in different situations.-Measures of Dispersion; Range; Inter quartile range; standard deviation; coefficient of variation; Applications to business. (6 hrs) Introduction to Probability; Concept of events; event space; different types of events; Venn diagram; Computing probabilities of events. Odds ratio. (4 hrs) Probability Distribution of Random Variables; Expected value; Pay-off table. (4 hrs) Binomial Distributions and applications; use of tables. (4 hrs) Normal Distribution, Standard Normal distribution,central limit theorem and applications (8 hrs) Introduction to linear programming: formulation of simple problems (4 hrs) Introduction to linear regression and applications (4 hrs) Use of computer packages for statistics / linear programming (8 hrs) Recommended Text Book Aczel, Amir, D. and Sounderpandian, Jayavel., Complete Business Statistics, 6th Ed. Tata McGraw-Hill, 2005 Viswanathan, P.K., Business Statistics - An Applied Orientation, Pearson Education, 2003 Anderson, Sweeny, Williams, Management Science, Thomson South-Western Evaluation Components A: Class Participation: 10 points (1 per session, best 10) B: Problem Solving: 20 points (4 per session, best 5) C: Surprise Tests: 20 points (5 per test, best 4) D: IAD Project: 20 points E: Class Tests: 30 points (15 per test, best 2) Award of Grades
A student getting any of the passing grades: A – Excellent (4 Grade Points) B – Good (3 Grade points) C – Satisfactory (2 Grade points) D - Low Pass (1 Grade point) will pass this course.
A student getting any of the two grades: I - Incomplete (Zero Grade points); or U - Unsatisfactory (Zero Grade Points). will not pass this course. Grades will be awarded based on 100 percentage points (see Evaluation Components above), after making deduction as follows, for attendance below 90%:
% Attendance % points deducted --------------------------------------------------- [85, 90) 1 [80, 85) 2 [75, 80) 4 [70, 75) 6 [65, 70) 8 [60, 65) 10 Note: [85, 90) means "less than 90, but not less than 85.
A student with less than 60% attendance will be awarded U grade irrespective of the percentage points secured. A student with less than 50 percentage points, after deduction as above, will also be awarded U grade.
A student with an U grade and not less than 50% course attendance, will be awarded D grade, but not A, B or C, only upon securing at least 50% marks in a subsequent "Save-the-Course Evaluation (StC)". There will be no opportunity to improve the score obtained at this evaluation. If the student fails to secure 50% marks in the StC, the course has to be repeated again, if and when it is offered next. If the course is an elective, the student has the option of either repeating it or meeting the credit requirements through another available elective. In any case, the grade sheet will list this course with grade, even if it is U, unless the student had exercised the opt-out option within the stipulated time for the elective course. |
Timeline for selecting database: 31 Oct 2009, 5pmTimeline for submission of report: 30 Nov 2009, 5pm
No report will be accepted after 5pm on 30 Nov 2009
Date for presentation: To be decided
The project carries 20 percentage points with the following breakup:Meeting the timeline for selection of database: 1 pointMeeting the timeline for submission of report : 1 pointEvaluation of Report : 8 pointsPresentation of report (individually assessed) : 10 points
1. Objectives:
This project work is intended to enable you to get some practice in gathering, organizing and analyzing data. In doing so, you are expected to illustrate your grasp of the concepts learnt in the IAD course. Additionally, you will also strengthen your communication skills by presenting your work as meaningful report. The project work will be carried out by groups of four. While every group has to show, through the report, their understanding of a minimum of FOUR concepts, the more concepts you illustrate, the more credit you get. You need not collect data through any field work but can depend on secondary data.
Groups:
a. Aravind, Sujith, Johncy, Jayan
b. Hasil, Thomas, Ashok, Nimisha
c. Srihari, Natasha, Vinita, Annada
d. Neethu, Kanimozhi, Karthika, Ansu
e. Kiran, Shruthi, Aneesh, Rahul
2. An Example.
For example, let us take the case of analysis of the information of a sample of SMEs in India. You can have 30 cases or observations - each firm is a case or observation. Your database would consist of the values for the following ‘variables’ or ‘attributes’ of each firm.
a. Sales b. Number of products in their product line.
c. Net Profits d. Debt/Equity Ratio e. Number of employees
f. Employee remuneration as percent of sales.
g. In which state or UT of India, the mill is located? (Example of a qualitative attribute)
Obviously, information on items (a) to (f) would have to be for the same specific year for all firms.
There can be many more such ‘variables’ (or attributes) the ‘values’ for which, for each company can be readily obtained or computed. (What are the possible sources for data?). It is not necessary to confine yourself to data pertaining to business entities alone. One creative student did the project with 30 different cross word puzzles. Think of the “attributes” of each cross word puzzle which can be collected and statistical analysis can be done. (e.g. number of words in the puzzle; number of anagrams; Can you think of any qualitative attribute?)
3. Example continued: Analysis/Organization:
Once you collect the data, your first task will be to tabulate the information appropriately (choosing class intervals judiciously). For example: the distribution of the 50 companies by the variable Debt/Equity ratio may be (in skeleton form) as below.
Debt/Equity Ratio Firms with that ratio
No. Percent
You can have two-way tables; say a) by D/E Ratio and NP/ sales or b) by sales and employee remuneration as % of sales. The above information can also be presented through charts. Computation of summary measures such as mean, s.d. and median etc., will lead to some inferences.
4. Example continued
You can also illustrate concepts of probability (joint, conditional etc.) using the same information (e.g.: What is the probability that a company will have a D/E ratio between 1 and 2? What is the probability that the company’s NP/Sales will be a certain value given that its D/E ratio is some value?). Assuming 30 cases as a large population you can calculate binomial probabilities of say, coming up with 2 companies having NP/Sales ratio of a specific value – say, 0.08 or 8% - if 5 companies are chosen at random. Thus a variety of concepts which are covered in the IAD course can be illustrated with just one set of data you have collected.
5. Research questions
Ideally the data collection effort should depend on some purposive questions to be formulated first. However, this exercise is intended to familiarize you with methods of organizing data and applying statistical concepts to be used and hence the emphasis is not so much on the research questions. But, the data collected and organized can also be used to gain some insights on the concepts to be learnt in the next term course on Integrated Cases and Projects.
6. Guidelines for collecting data:
a. You must collect data for at least 4 ‘variables’ or attributes. For each variable you must have at least 30 observations or cases. Of the four ‘attributes’ at least one must be qualitative and at least two must be quantifiable.
b. The database you use must be enclosed in original, if possible. If not a list of the sources must be enclosed.
c. While you may use the concepts illustrated in this note, for your project, they alone will not give you full credit. Think of other concepts that you can illustrate.
d. Attempt some meaningful inferences which are free from statistical jargon but can be understood by ordinary citizens.
7. Potential Data Sources: (you can use other similar sources too)
1. Advertisements for jobs in business magazines and newspapers.
2. Advertisements for products in a business periodical.
3. Questions to the counsellor in a women’s magazine. (Each question is a case)
4. Television commercials.
5. Collection of books in a home library.
6. Consumption of soft drinks by 30 ASB students during the past week.
Sampling Methods
Tables and Graphs
Tables Vs Graphs: http://www.ncsu.edu/labwrite/res/tablevsgraph/res-tablevsgraph.html
Data types: http://www.ncsu.edu/labwrite/res/gh/gh-datatype.html
Designing tables: http://www.ncsu.edu/labwrite/res/gh/gh-tables.html#parts
Selecting a type of graph depending in the type of data
http://www.ncsu.edu/labwrite/res/gh/gh-graphtype.html
Bar Graphs, histograms, : http://www.ncsu.edu/labwrite/res/gh/gh-bargraph.html
Line graphs and scatter plots: http://www.ncsu.edu/labwrite/res/gh/gh-linegraph.html
...And much more at http://www.ncsu.edu/labwrite/res/res-homepage.htm
Tables: Stixy (password: asbindia)
Break even Analysis
See 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 19 20
See: Contribution margin analysis
Cost, Profit and Production functions
See 1 2 6 8 9 12 15 16 18 19 20