III. The “EVERYTHING” TABLE
Based on the results of the GE 2008, I have created an table, which, once one learns to interpret the numbers, tells pretty much everything we need to know about the election. It is a comparative table of the GE Nov. 4, 2008 to the final poll convergence numbers (Diff. 1) and to the averages from the GE in 2004 (Diff. 2). The table is sorted according to winning margin, from Obama's largest down to his leanest, then from McCain's leanest to his largest.
I have also published the table via GOOGLE DOCS , and if you go to the link, you can re-sort the table according to other variables other than margin. This is what makes the table so useful.
NOTE:
due to rounding from 1/1000th
of a % to 1/100th
of a %, there are examples where the margin % appears 0.01% off from
the difference between Obama's % and McCain's %. I don't just
subtract the losing percent from the winning percent. I take the real
vote margin and divide it by the total votes to calculate the margin.
So, the slight deviations you may see here and there are
indeed CORRECT.
For instance: DE, ME
|
State |
EV |
BO-% |
JM-% |
Margin |
PC 12 |
Diff. 1 |
2004 |
Diff. 2 |
DC |
3 |
92.46 |
06.53 |
85.93 |
69.00 |
+16.93 |
79.84 |
+6.09 |
|
HI |
4 |
71.85 |
26.58 |
45.26 |
36.00 |
+9.26 |
8.74 |
+36.52 |
|
VT |
3 |
67.46 |
30.45 |
37.01 |
27.00 |
+10.01 |
20.14 |
+16.87 |
|
RI |
4 |
63.13 |
35.21 |
27.92 |
18.10 |
+9.82 |
20.75 |
+7.17 |
NY |
31 |
62.80 |
36.11 |
26.69 |
29.00 |
-2.31 |
18.29 |
+8.41 |
|
MA |
12 |
61.80 |
35.99 |
25.81 |
21.33 |
+4.48 |
25.16 |
+0.65 |
|
MD |
10 |
61.92 |
36.47 |
25.44 |
17.30 |
+8.14 |
12.98 |
+12.46 |
|
IL |
21 |
61.92 |
36.78 |
25.13 |
24.90 |
+0.23 |
10.34 |
+14.81 |
DE |
3 |
61.94 |
36.95 |
25.00 |
20.70 |
+4.30 |
7.59 |
+17.40 |
CA |
55 |
60.95 |
36.92 |
24.03 |
24.00 |
+0.03 |
9.95 |
+14.08 |
CT |
7 |
60.59 |
38.22 |
22.37 |
21.33 |
+1.04 |
10.37 |
+12.00 |
|
ME |
4 |
57.71 |
40.38 |
17.32 |
17.15 |
+0.17 |
9.00 |
+8.32 |
WA |
11 |
57.43 |
40.32 |
17.11 |
14.60 |
+2.51 |
7.18 |
+9.93 |
|
MI |
17 |
57.37 |
40.92 |
16.46 |
14.44 |
+2.02 |
3.42 |
+13.04 |
OR |
7 |
56.75 |
40.40 |
16.35 |
15.57 |
+0.78 |
4.16 |
+12.19 |
NM |
5 |
56.91 |
41.78 |
15.13 |
9.26 |
+5.87 |
0.79 |
+15.92 |
NJ |
15 |
57.15 |
41.62 |
15.54 |
16.00 |
-0.46 |
6.68 |
+8.85 |
WI |
10 |
56.22 |
42.31 |
13.90 |
11.34 |
+2.56 |
0.38 |
+13.52 |
|
NV |
5 |
55.15 |
42.65 |
12.49 |
6.83 |
+5.66 |
2.59 |
+15.09 |
|
MN |
10 |
54.06 |
43.82 |
10.24 |
12.00 |
-1.76 |
3.48 |
+6.76 |
PA |
21 |
54.48 |
44.17 |
10.32 |
7.30 |
+3.02 |
2.50 |
+7.82 |
NH |
4 |
54.13 |
44.52 |
9.61 |
10.43 |
-0.82 |
1.37 |
+8.24 |
IA |
7 |
53.93 |
44.39 |
9.53 |
12.75 |
-3.22 |
0.67 |
+10.20 |
CO |
9 |
53.66 |
44.71 |
8.95 |
6.62 |
+2.33 |
4.67 |
+13.62 |
USA |
-- |
52.87 |
45.62 |
7.25 |
7.54 |
-0.29 |
2.46 |
+9.71 |
|
VA |
13 |
52.63 |
46.33 |
6.30 |
4.93 |
+1.37 |
8.20 |
+14.50 |
OH |
20 |
51.38 |
46.80 |
4.58 |
2.30 |
+2.28 |
2.11 |
+6.69 |
FL |
27 |
50.91 |
48.10 |
2.81 |
1.79 |
+1.02 |
5.01 |
+7.82 |
|
NE-02* |
1* |
49.97 |
48.75 |
1.21 |
4.00 |
+5.21 |
21.79 |
+23.00 |
|
IN |
11 |
49.91 |
48.88 |
1.03 |
1.18 |
+2.21 |
20.68 |
+21.71 |
|
NC |
15 |
49.70 |
49.38 |
0.33 |
0.62 |
-0.29 |
12.43 |
+12.76 |
-- |
-- |
|
|
|
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
St. |
EV |
BO-% |
JM-% |
Margin |
PC 12 |
Diff. 1 |
2004 |
Diff. 2 |
MO |
11 |
49.25 |
49.39 |
0.13 |
0.46 |
-0.33 |
7.20 |
-7.06 |
|
MT |
3 |
47.17 |
49.43 |
2.26 |
1.64 |
+0.62 |
20.50 |
-18.24 |
|
GA |
15 |
46.90 |
52.10 |
5.20 |
3.85 |
+1.35 |
16.60 |
-11.40 |
|
SD |
3 |
44.75 |
53.16 |
8.41 |
7.50 |
+0.91 |
21.47 |
-13.06 |
|
AZ |
10 |
44.91 |
53.39 |
8.48 |
4.43 |
+4.05 |
10.47 |
-1.99 |
ND |
3 |
44.47 |
53.07 |
8.60 |
1.34 |
+9.94 |
27.36 |
-18.76 |
|
SC |
8 |
44.90 |
53.87 |
8.98 |
12.55 |
-3.57 |
17.08 |
-8.10 |
|
TX |
34 |
43.64 |
55.39 |
11.76 |
13.00 |
-1.24 |
22.86 |
-11.11 |
WV |
5 |
42.55 |
55.69 |
13.14 |
7.66 |
+5.48 |
12.86 |
+0.28 |
|
MS |
6 |
43.00 |
56.18 |
13.17 |
10.50 |
+2.67 |
19.69 |
-6.51 |
TN |
11 |
41.83 |
56.90 |
15.07 |
14.00 |
+1.07 |
14.27 |
+0.79 |
KS |
6 |
41.57 |
56.50 |
14.93 |
17.00 |
-2.07 |
25.38 |
-10.45 |
|
NE* |
4* |
41.60 |
56.53 |
14.93 |
19.00 |
-4.07 |
33.22 |
-18.28 |
|
KY |
8 |
41.15 |
57.37 |
16.22 |
12.40 |
+3.82 |
19.86 |
-3.64 |
|
LA |
9 |
39.93 |
58.56 |
18.63 |
10.43 |
+8.20 |
14.51 |
+4.12 |
AR |
6 |
38.86 |
58.72 |
19.85 |
10.75 |
+9.10 |
9.76 |
+10.09 |
AL |
9 |
38.74 |
60.32 |
21.58 |
19.33 |
+2.25 |
25.62 |
-4.04 |
AK |
3 |
37.89 |
59.42 |
21.54 |
14.58 |
+6.96 |
25.55 |
-4.01 |
|
ID |
4 |
35.96 |
61.30 |
25.34 |
23.00 |
+2.34 |
38.12 |
-12.78 |
|
UT |
5 |
34.27 |
62.34 |
28.07 |
24.00 |
+4.07 |
45.54 |
-17.47 |
|
OK |
7 |
34.35 |
65.65 |
31.29 |
30.15 |
+1.14 |
31.14 |
+0.15 |
|
WY |
3 |
32.54 |
64.78 |
32.24 |
23.00 |
+9.24 |
39.79 |
-7.55 |
The EVERYTHING Table in this configuration is automatically the partisan ranking of all 51 „states“ as of 2008, based on each states performance in the GE. This means that the state at the top of the list is the most liberal state in the union, whereas state state at the bottom of the list is the least liberal. Reading the states in reverse order would give the conservative partisan rankings from most to least. For instance: DC is the 1st most liberal „state“ in the Union and the 51st most conservative „state“. WY is the 1st most conservative „state“ in the Union and the 51st most liberal „state“.
Here a table comparing the margin spreads (numerically):
|
Margin |
BO |
EV |
JM |
EV |
|
+30 and up |
3 |
10 |
2 |
10 |
|
+20 to +30 |
8 |
143 |
4 |
21 |
|
+10 to +20 |
10 |
105 |
9 |
89** |
|
+5 to +10 |
4 |
33 |
5 |
39 |
|
+2 to +5 |
2 |
47 |
1 |
3 |
|
+1 to +2 |
1 |
11 |
-- |
-- |
|
Subtotal |
|
349 |
|
162 |
|
Under +1 |
1** |
16** |
1 |
11 |
|
TOTAL |
|
365 |
|
173 |
**Figure adjusted for the elector-splitting in NE.
This table depicts that Obama had a landslide base of 259 EV going into and on election day. McCain had a landslide base of 120 EV going into and on election day.
The last democratic candidate to win 11 states or more with blowout margins of 20% or more? LBJ, in 1964.