State of Emergency in Bangladesh

Was It the Last Resort to a Free, Fair and Credible Election?

Dr. Abdul Momen*

On January 11, 2007, the leaders of the political group known as the Mohajote led by the largest and oldest political party of Bangladesh the Awami League (AL) were pleased as the discredited President Dr. Iazuddin Ahmed who usurped power under false pretext nearly 73 days ago resigned as the Chief Advisor (CA) of the Caretaker government, and he declared a state of emergency. The party that had been fighting over years for the Election Commission reform, and in recent days for the resignation of Dr. Ahmed as CA suddenly felt relieved as ‘Dr. Ahmed resigned’. The alternative to them was a non-credible doctored election on January 22. No wonder, the Mohajote leadership led by former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of the AL flanked by two past Presidents, Dr. AQM Badruzdoza Chowdhury (leader of the LDP, a faction of the ruling BNP party) and Lt. General (Retd) H. M. Ershad (leader of the JP party) attended the inaugural ceremony of the new Chief Advisor, Dr. Fakuddin Ahmed, a former World Bank banker. Khaleda Zia, the immediate past Prime Minister and the leader of the 4-party alliance who recruited Dr. Fakruddin Ahmed first as the Governor of the Bangladesh Bank and then as the Managing Director of the PKSF abstained from attending the event. She also did not attend the inauguration ceremony of Justice Latifur Rahman, her staunch supporter when he was installed as a CA in 2001. The local press reports that she was upset with the military takeover, more so as her son Tarique Zia’s best friend Ghiasuddin Mamun was taken for military questioning. In addition, Dr. Iazuddin Ahmed, popularly known as her ‘remote control President and CA’ was forced to resign under a bloodless coup promoted by foreign diplomats especially the UN.

Few friends jokingly blamed me for making the Bangladesh military too much dependent on the UN that they could not refuse its advice and threats. In early 1990s at my suggestion Clinton administration initially engaged a few members of Bangladesh armed forces as mercenary to help assist the U. S. forces to re-instate ousted Haitian President Reverend Aristide** and the Bangladesh military performed so well that in the process the UN started recruiting more and more of Bangladesh forces for its world wide Peace Keeping Missions. Nearly 1/3^rd f Bangladesh army is constantly engaged by the UN. Each member of the Bangladesh military hopes to serve in such lucrative peace missions jobs abroad. Critics question whether has its allegiance got divided between Bangladesh government and the UN jobs? Whatever it may be, the good news is that the Bangladesh military is now engaged in ensuring a ‘free, fair, credible and non-violent election’ in their own land. As members of the UN Peace Keeping Mission, they did such job in East Timor with credits. Question is when will they hold the election? If they delays, given the volatility, they may face music and people may lose their confidence.

Events Leading to Emergency

On January 3, all the Mohajote candidates withdrew their nominations in fan fare as the party leadership declared that they would boycott the election of January 22 since correct voter list had not been made available and the set up left by the past BNP-Jamat government to doctor the election had not been dismantled. All branches of the government the judiciary, the election commission and the executive were largely manned by the BNP-Jamat party activists, they claimed. There was sufficient evidence to such claims. On January 5, the Mohajote observed nation wide Prothibad Dibosh, a day of protest. Such protest gatherings were well attended across the nation and it showed the strength and spontaneous support of the Mohajote position throughout the country. People from all walks of life attended those events while the army and police forces quietly stood by. On that day, army showed its equipment and weapons but stayed calm. Speakers directed their speeches to army and asked them to refrain from taking actions against the national interest and the people of the country. From January 7 through 9, the Mohajote called for a nationwide oborud (complete strike within a city where entry and exit of all vehicles are forbidden by the appeal of the political party) that crippled and paralyzed the caretaker government of President Iazuddin. President directed the army to assist the civilian security forces to maintain law and order but instead of shooting the public, they remained as ‘by standers’. It is interesting that at places, they cheered the general public and the agitating demonstrators. However, there had been violent clashes between police forces and political activists in selected pockets across the country but in many places, the police did not go against the political activists and the demonstrators even to those that stopped inter-city rail movement. In fact, many went back to their police posts or remained as ‘inactive by-standers’.

It is interesting to note that on Oborud days, although all the major shopping malls were closed down and most of the private cars were out of roads in Dhaka city except Banani-Gulshan-Baridhara diplomatic area, the auto rickshaws known as CNGs and 3-wheeler rickshaws were available for movement all over Dhaka. More importantly, as opposed to general perception, the days of Oborud were good for many people to get their work done in government offices, in banks and in other commercial offices, for example, airline companies. First, it takes less time (and less pollution) to move around in a city that is normally clogged due to never-ending traffic jams. Secondly, staffs and officers were available on the desks on Oborud days. Therefore, one can get his or her work done on Oborud days very conveniently and of course, with less hassle.

On January 10, the Mahajote organized a public meeting at the historic Paltan Maidan in the afternoon to commemorate the return of Bangabanhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman from the Pakistani jail in 1972. People started gathering at the event from mid day and bus and truck loads of activists started coming from all across Dhaka and its adjoining areas. Sheikh Hasina announced her next programs at the gathering. She narrated that the Voter List is fraudulent and still unavailable, President Iazuddin did not improve the level playing field yet, the Election Commission is questionable and therefore, her Mohajote decided to boycott such election that is highly likely to be fraudulent and would not be the reflection of the wishes of the people. She urged her followers to resist the proposed one-party election on January 22. She was echoed by other leaders including General H. M. Ershad, the head of the JP party and Dr. AQM B Chowdhury, the 1^st Secretary General of the General Zia’s BNP party now being led by his widower Mrs. Zia and his son, Tarique Zia who earned notoriety for being corrupt. Dr. Chowdhury is now the leader of the splinter fraction of the BNP. The government reportedly put up 35,000 police and Para-military forces around the Banga Bhavan, the seat of President Iazuddin to protect his office and life from public wrath. From atop of the high rise buildings, there was sharp contrast evident --- flood of people in one side of the road near the DIT in the Paltan area and in the other side; there was parade of organized security forces cordoning and isolating off the President’s house.

Rumors of the State of Emergency

Political and civil rights leaders in Dhaka were expecting ‘State of Emergency’ prior to the speech of Sheikh Hasina on January 10^th at the Paltan. Many, for example, on January 9^th evening when I visited Dr. Badiul Alam Majumder, an American Professor of Management, now heading the Global Hunter Project and the Shujan, a non-profit organization dedicated to educate public on voting and candidates, and geared towards creating an environment so that corrupt and musclemen finds difficulty to get party nomination or get elected, and Mrs. Shah AMS Kibria, the wife of former UN Under Secretary General and former Bangladesh law maker and Finance Minister [who was killed by terrorists in a bomb blast in early 2005 at a public rally and whose case has not been correctly investigated yet], they were expecting ‘emergency announcement’ on that night at any moment. The foreign election observers that announced their withdrawal also was expecting such move from the military at any moment. But night passed including the 10^th evening without any announcement. The civil society was hoping for a military move earlier when the 4 Presidential Advisors resigned including the former Chief of Armed Forces in protest against President Iazuddin’s extreme partisanship and Washington DC based NDI’s report of nearly 15% ghost votes in the Voter List. But that did not happen. Therefore, they expressed anxiety as violence and even killing of candidates might start from January 12^th. The nation was heading towards a civil war. The Islami cadres were alerted by the Jamat leaders to get ready for a tough fight while the BNP leadership demanded its supporters to resist those that would oppose election even by force. Jamat leaders also demanded President Iazuddin to fully engage all forces to wipe out the forces that would obstruct the January 22 election. On the other hand, the Mohajote with its enthusiastic public support was determined to obstruct the one-party election on January 22.

Was It a Diplomatic Military Coup for Sustenance of Democracy?

The Ambassadors of the U. S., the U.K. and the EU publicly cautioned that the election of January 22 would not be credible without the participation of all major political parties. Nick Burns, the U. S. Under Secretary of State after repeated attempts told Bangladesh President that without participation of all major parties, the election would not be credible. The British High Commissioner Anwar Chowdhury was particularly very blunt. In spite, President Ahmed and his Acting Chief Election Commissioner Mahfuzur Rahman were equally determined to hold the election as scheduled and castigated the diplomats for their intrusion. The last pressure came from the UN Secretary General, Ki-Moon. Prior to that Sheikh Hasina spoke to the visiting UN Under Secretary General. The Under Secretary made it very clear to the Bangladesh Army that if they participate in a fraudulent election or openly stage a military coup, the UN would withdraw all its supports that means withdrawal of nearly 1/3^rd of Bangladesh Army from the UN Peace Keeping Missions. Each year, the UN employs nearly 35,000 Bangladesh military globally and such privilege would be lost forever. Such threat appeared real to younger officers when the UN declared withdrawal of its support from the 22 January election activities. Therefore, reportedly many young officers contacted the GOC of the 9^th Division Major General Masud that is stationed in the capital.

In this city of rumors, the story that emanates from the Dhaka cantonment goes like this. The Army Chief Lt. Gen. Moeen Ahmed of greater Noakhali, the home district of former Prime Minister Begum Zia was not still convinced to move. However, his 9^th Division Commanding Officer, Major General Masud, a close relative of Major (Retd) Said Iskander, Begum Zia’s younger brother, reportedly betrayed and surrounded the Banga Bhavan and asked President Iazuddin Ahmed to resign from his CA position and declare a state of emergency. [Anti-AL general, Maj. Gen. Matin, a former DGFI Chief now an Advisor might have played a role too]. He initially refused and as usual desired to speak to Begum Zia. But he was not allowed. His Press Advisor Moklesur Rahman in the meantime alerted Major General Razzakul Haider, the Chief of the President’s Guard Regiment. When General Haider appeared, he was immediately disarmed and later retired. The NSI Chief was also retired as he made some opposing noise. It is rumored that President called for his most trusted advisor Moklesur Rahman and when he appeared and made some noise, an army officer gave him a blow in front of the President and Mokles started bleeding, and he was forced to quit. Seeing such situation, President without any hesitation immediately agreed to resign and also agreed to read out ‘a prepared speech’ drafted by the army. He was cautioned that if he vacillates, he would be taken into task. His speech for the nation was pre-recorded. Few advisors that came for a meeting with the CA were simply puzzled and tried to submit their resignation. Unfortunately, they could not do so as their CA was gone when they were ready.

In the speech, President stated that the ‘Voter List was inaccurate, the EC commission needs reform, more administrative changes are necessary to create level playing field and the like that were the common demands of the Mohajote and the civil societies. As it appears, he was reading an AL drafted speech but in fact, it was reportedly drafted by army officers. The AL intelligence was so poor that they had no knowledge of such draft.

The Army decided whom to make the Chief Advisor and approached both Sheikh Hasina and Begum Zia as per the Constitution to get their consent. It is reported that they also contacted Nobel Laureate Professor Mohammed Yunus prior to selecting Fakruddin Ahmed as their CA. The CA picked up 10 advisors and few of them are his own relatives. Most of the new advisors are professionals and some of them are pro-BNP. In spite of their connection, people generally believe that they would rise up above partisanship.

As some quarters in the army close to Begum Zia or Said Iskhander might create trouble, the army imposed a ’11 PM to 5 AM’ curfew for the 1^st night. However, on the following day, the three Chiefs along with Gen. Masud of the 9^th Division appeared before the officers of Bangladesh armed forces--- army, navy and air forces at the Cantonment and narrated the events leading to the ‘state of emergency’ especially the threat of the UN of its suspension of all Peace Mission assignments abroad. The officers overwhelmingly approved their behind-the-scene takeover. However, as against the perception of some quarters that the army would like to prolong the emergency for a longer period, at least two years, I am reported that army officers overwhelmingly wanted to get a credible election as soon as possible. They believe that they can get the voter list corrected within 45 days and can get the election over with within 90 days. It is rumored that the BRAC proposed that they can get the Voter List plus photo IDs within 30 days and the Bangladesh Army could get Voter List and Photo IDs within 5 weeks’ time. However, few analysts believe that it might take 4 to 6 months to get the Voter List and Photo IDs.

Should Non-elected Government Take Up Major Changes?

Few individuals that are close to army would like them to bring about a number of major changes prior to handing the power over to politicians such as eliminate corruption, punish corrupt political leaders, resolve energy crisis, reduce price inflation, develop independent judiciary and independent Corruption Commission, etc. Many believe that non-political governments are less corrupt and more efficient and therefore, more desirable for the nation’s growth. Unfortunately, Bangladesh macro economic data do not support such contention. In fact, in spite of political polarization and rivalries, for example, the average per capita income growth rate of Bangladesh is double during the political period (1991-2006) vis-à-vis non-political or civil-military period (1975-1990). While it was barely 3.2% during 1975-90 under civil-military rule, it was more than double over 6.8% during 1991-2006. Secondly, to improve governance, to reduce corruption or to improve performance and competitiveness, the nation needs devolving administration and politically elected district governments with full participation of the people at every levels of management, not rule of civil-military bureaucracy or governance of few elites and media pundits.

There was wide spread rumor that the Bangladesh military has been politicalized over the last few years and they are not allowed even to read any newspapers that criticizes the Zia government. For example, the Janakantho, the Bhorer Kajog, etc are not allowed to be subscribed by the military offices and the leader of the Opposition Sheikh Hasina is barred from visiting Cantonment area even the Sena Kungo, a social gathering or wedding reception venue. In spite of so much manipulation, our armed forces did not become partisan nor sold out at the time of national crisis. They refused to shoot the common people, the demonstrators and the opposition political activists even they disregarded the wishes of the past Prime Minister and her son that apparently owns the administration especially the military. While I was taking their photographs of army fully loaded with arms, they said, they are friends not enemy. No wonder, President Iazuddin’s ex-advisor, Shafiqul Huq Chowdhury publicly stated, ‘it was wrong to engage army’ to calm down the opposition demands. The show of force designed to intimidate the opposition leaders ironically did just the opposite.

People of Bangladesh by and large are politically mature and conscious. The Bangladesh military knows it. They know that the military cannot run such fragile economy neither they can control the media for long or eliminate corruption. Therefore, if they are smart, they would advise the Caretaker government to get the election over with at the shortest possible time. Some of the things that a few Advisors of the current Caretaker government are talking about might take much longer time to achieve perfection. If intended perfection delays the election, the country may again face uncertainties causing public hardships and economic juggernaut. Therefore, the CA and his advisors must not delay the process. Instead of getting involved in nitty-gritty of the government, let them concentrate in the Election Commission reforms and reforms in the electorate process quickly so that they can present a ‘free, fair, credible and on-violent’ election within 90 days. If they delay, and if history is any lesson, then there is possibility that the arch rivals Hasina and Khaleda might be united together once again to launch another nation-wide uprising as they did in late 1980s and in 1990 against General H. M. Ershad, the last military strongman. Fact of the matter is whether the advisors dislike Hasina or Khaleda---- they have the grass-root support. They can bring millions on the street at short notice and they have the power to cripple or dislodge a non-elected government.

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*Dr. Abdul Momen, a professor of Economics and Business Management, writes from Boston, USA.

**In early 1990s the U. S. government was trying to reinstate ousted President Aristide in Haiti. Our college used to organize ‘Peace Week’ in each Spring. We invited exiled President Aristide at the event. Aristide was accompanied by Congressman Joe Kennedy II. I was a faculty advisor of the Peace Committee. While having discussion with the guests, I suggested that the Bangladesh might be willing to supply soldiers to fight along with the U. S. Army to reinstate Aristide. The issue was related to President Clinton by Congressman Kennedy and I also spoke to Bangladesh Ambassador Human Kabir to support my idea. It clicked and the Bangladesh Army was sent to Haiti. President Bill Clinton thanked me for such initiative. Once Bangladesh army proved its professionalism, they have been recruited in most of the UN Peace Keeping Missions abroad.