Diocesan officials said earlier this month closings would be determined in three phases, with announcements beginning as early as next February.

A projected shortage of priests and huge shifts in where Catholics now live are the two major reasons for the downsizing.

While the best days of the centennial churches have passed, congregants cling to the hope that their parishes will survive any restructuring.

"I don't think people are looking at that word, "close,' " said Rose Marie Hall, a parish trustee of St. John the Evangelist, a landmark in South Buffalo.

The original parishioners of St. John the Evangelist held their first Mass in an old mansion in December 1906, after Bishop Charles Colton agreed to establish a church for German-speaking people who attended St. Teresa, a mostly Irish parish.

Nonetheless, Hall said she and her fellow parishioners understand that several Catholic churches stand within walking distance of each other in South Buffalo, and, of them, St. John the Evangelist has the smallest membership.

"We're intelligent people. We can see the handwriting on the wall. There are going to be changes," Hall said.

The church community, she added, may be under a different name or altered configuration, although no one knows for sure what will happen.

"In the back of our heads, we're celebrating 100 years because we may not have another big anniversary," Hall said. "We're trying to make this one as nice as possible. If we have to go out, it's a nice way to go out."

The mood is similar at Our Lady of Carmel in Brant, a small country church close to four other larger parishes that have bigger and more up-to-date facilities.

"It's been somewhat expressed as, "We're going to go out with a bang,' " said the Rev. James W. Fliss, pastor.

Recalling history

In Batavia, parishioners opened a year of celebrations in February with a Mass recalling life as it was 100 years ago. The Rev. Dennis Riter spoke parts of the Mass in Latin and wore a chasuble dating to the turn of the 20th century. Some parishioners showed up in period dress, too.

But like other areas of the diocese, Batavia has more Catholic churches than it needs now.

"By now, people are intellectually, if not emotionally, becoming used to the idea that things will change," Riter said.

Blessed Trinity parish on Leroy Avenue will host a special anniversary Mass on June 11 with Bishop Edward U. Kmiec to recall the church's earliest days.

A hundred years ago this July, German immigrants met on the top floor of a grocery at the corner of Dewey Avenue and Sanford Street, a place they called the Upper Room Church. It was a humble beginning for a parish that would go on to build one of the area's most beautiful churches, a Lombard Romanesque masterpiece modeled after San Theodoro Church in Pavia, Italy.

The pastor, the Rev. George L. Reger, and parishioners have been balancing the highs and lows of planning a celebratory year, while attending "cluster meetings" aimed at figuring out how six city parishes, including Blessed Trinity, and two Cheektowaga parishes will share one priest in the next decade.

Reger developed a strong attachment to the parish since his arrival in 1993, and he says the possibility of having to leave is difficult.

"The reasonable thing to do is reorganize [parishes]," said Reger. "But that doesn't make it any easier. It's an affair of the heart rather than the head."

Also in 1906, a group of Poles claimed a plot of farmland along William Street in Cheektowaga for a parish they named after an obscure Ukrainian saint, Josaphat.

In October of that year, Colton laid the cornerstone of St. Elizabeth Church on Grant Street, with an estimated 1,500 Hungarian Catholics in attendance.

Established as well in 1906 were Our Lady of the Rosary Church in Niagara Falls, St. Mary Church in Batavia and St. Bernard in Buffalo - all celebrating their centennials this year.

Two other 1906 parishes, Our Lady of Mount Carmel and St. Lucy, both in Buffalo, were closed in 1953 and 1960, respectively.

1906: a year of growth

The year of the devastating San Francisco earthquake and Upton Sinclair's muckraking "The Jungle" was the most prolific parish-creating span in diocesan history.

Buffalo then was the eighth-largest city in the country, more populous than San Francisco, Washington, D.C., Denver and Los Angeles. Nearly a third of city residents were immigrants, mostly Catholics from Ireland, Italy, Germany and Poland.

Buffalo and Niagara Falls at the time comprised the first major metropolitan area in the country to be fully powered by electricity.

"This was a boom town and the sky was the limit. Build, build, build - that was the thing to do," said Martin F. Ederer, a local historian working on a history of Our Lady of the Rosary in Niagara Falls.

To ensure that the needs of various ethnic groups were being met, the bishops of the day, including Colton in 1906, gladly agreed to establish new parishes, even if they were right down the street from another Catholic church - as is the case in parts of Buffalo, Niagara Falls, Batavia, Lackawanna, Lockport and Olean.

"It was a very ethnic world. You didn't cross those lines very readily," Ederer said.

Besides, immigrants in those days walked to church and school, he said.

"It was easy [to open parishes] because the people were there," Ederer said. "There was at least some fear that if [the bishop] didn't do something to keep people, they could become Episcopalians, Methodists, Presbyterians. Evangelization at that time really amounted to, "You build a church and they will come.' "

How things have changed.

A changing population

Now, most of the 100 or so remaining families who make up St. Elizabeth parish travel to the Black Rock church from suburbs such as Hamburg and Williamsville. But fewer of them have been coming since the diocese announced plans to restructure, said Elaine Stilwell, business manager and a longtime parishioner.

"Subconsciously people are starting to stay away because they believe it's going to close anyway," Stilwell said.

A cluster of seven parishes in Black Rock and Riverside, including St. Elizabeth, plans to reduce to two churches, but hasn't yet identified which two would remain.

Even a suburban church like St. Josaphat parish is feeling the effects of demographic shifts.

The parish still has about 1,300 families, but most are older. Instead of celebrating lots of baptisms and first Holy Communions, the Rev. Theodore Rog, pastor, finds himself presiding more often at funerals. The parish conducted 65 funeral Masses in 2005.

"It's hard to attract young families in the area. They're just jumping right over us, going out to Lancaster, Elma," Rog said. "We still have a good solid neighborhood here."

A rash of home-invasion robberies in recent months in the area hasn't helped, however.

When senior citizens were targeted in the robberies, some dedicated older parishioners decided to move.

"Almost once or twice a month I had people tell me, "Sorry I have to leave the parish. My children don't want me to live alone anymore,' " the pastor said.

Rather than bemoan the demographic changes, the parish has tried to adjust.

It replaced its standard religious education program with a new format called "Generations of Faith," which brings children together with their parents in learning more about Catholic traditions and doctrine. St. John the Evangelist also has adopted the program - with an eye toward the future.

In the early days of the parish, St. Josaphat parishioners bounced among a few different sites for worship, including an orphanage and an old farm house. Then, in 1924, tragedy struck when a fire burned down the church and school building, forcing worship into the orphanage again.

"It amazes me what people went through just to conduct services. It's hard to imagine nowadays," said Joe Wachowiak, a longtime parishioner. "It amazes me the work and devotion that went on to keep the parish going."

e-mail: jtokasz@buffnews.com