This is the third of three files comprising the document:


Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol
on U.S. Energy Markets
and Economic Activity


October 1998

Energy Information Administration

Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
U.S. Department of Energy
Washington, DC 20585





Table 30. Comparison of Results for Reducing Carbon Emissions to 7 Percent Below 1990 Levels

Without Trading, Sinks, Offsets, or Clean Development Mechanism
Projection MIT EPRIa CRA EIA PNNL WEFA
2010

Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton) ... 266 280 295 348 221 265
Change in Actual Gross Domestic Product
From Reference Projection
Percent ................................ -1.5b -1.0 -2.1 -4.2 NA -3.2
Billion 1996 Dollars ....................... -156 -102 -227 -437 NA -332
Loss in Potential Gross Domestic Product
Relative to Reference Projection
(Billion 1996 Dollars) ...................... NA 73 82 79 to 94c 65 60
Change in Carbon Intensity (Percent)..........
Change in Fossil Fuel Consumption (Percent) . . .
NA
NA
-27.9
-19.3 to -23.9d
-32
-30.3
-26
-22.1
-31
-24.5
-24.5
-20.9
2020
Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton) ... 147 251 316 305 286 360
Change in Actual Gross Domestic Product
From Reference Projection
Percent ................................ -1.5b -0.96 -2.4 -0.8 NA -2.0
Billion 1996 Dollars ....................... -156 -120 -311 -91 NA -257
Loss in Potential Gross Domestic Product
Relative to Reference Projection
(Billion 1996 Dollars) ...................... NA 81 111 75 to 103c 109 130
Change in Carbon Intensity (Percent)..........
Change in Fossil Fuel Consumption (Percent) . . .
NA
NA
-32.2
-24.0 to -32.3e
-31.0
-35.1
-38.9
-25.7
-36.9
-29.6
-35.9
-28.4

aEPRI allows 50 million metric tons for sinks in this case.

bThe percentage represents MIT's upper bound estimate, including some macroeconomic adjustment costs. MIT provided a range from -0.5 to

-1.5 percent for change in GDP, to be interpreted as minimum and maximum losses to the economy. For the purposes of this chapter, the lowest
range is the irreducible economic loss. Because GDP was not provided for the MIT reference case, the reader may assume a central value for GDP of
$9,400 billion in 2010 and $10,900 in 2020 (1992 dollars). Consequently, the range of losses is $52 billion to $156 billion in 2010 (1996 dollars).

cThe losses in potential GDP for EIA shown in Tables 30 and 31 use two different concepts, which give slightly different results. One uses the computation of potential GDP that is derived from the DRI model as described in Chapter 6 of this report. The second uses the approximation method
under the carbon reduction versus carbon price curve, also discussed in Chapter 6. The two calculations produce nearly identical results for the 19903% case. For the 1990-7% case, the DRI calculation produces a smaller estimate of potential GDP losses. For all other cases, the DRI calculation
produces a higher estimate of potential GDP losses. Because the projections from analyses other than EIA's were calculated using the approximation
method related to the carbon reduction versus carbon price curve, estimates from both the DRI and approximation methods are provided for the EIA
study.

dOnly total primary energy was provided. Fossil fuel consumption was derived by subtracting an estimate for nuclear energy and renewable energy
ranging from 13 to 17 quadrillion Btu from total primary energy for 2010.

eOnly total primary energy was provided. Fossil fuel consumption was derived by subtracting an estimate for nuclear energy and renewable energy
of 12 to 20 quadrillion Btu from total primary energy for 2020.

NA = not available.

Sources: EIA: National Energy Modeling System, run FD07BLW.D080398B. WEFA: WEFA, Inc., Global Warming: The High Cost of the Kyoto Protocol, National and
State Impacts (Eddystone, PA, 1998). PNNL: E-mail of data from PNNL with explanation of GDP effect received from Ronald Sands of PNNL on August 26, 1998. CRA:
Paul M. Bernstein, Charles River Associates, e-mail communications, August 24, 1998. EPRI: E-mail provided by R. Richels of EPRI on July 6, 1998. MIT: Facsimile dated
July 10, 1998, from Prof. Henry Jacoby, MIT, Cambridge Massachusetts.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table 31. Comparison of Results for Reducing Carbon Emissions to 7 Percent Below 1990 Levels
With Annex I Trading, Sinks, and Offsets

Projection MIT EPRIa CRA DRI Case 2
EIAb
PNNL1990+9% 1990+14%

2010

Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton) ... 175 114 109 110 163 129 100
Change in Actual Gross Domestic Product
From Reference Projection
Percent ................................ -1.5 -0.5 -1.3 -1.1 -2.0 -1.7 NA
Billion 1996 Dollars ....................... NA -56 -133 -118 -207 -177 NA
Loss in Potential Gross Domestic Product
Relative to Reference Projection
(Billion 1996 Dollars)....................... NA 17 15 16 27 to 36 17 to 29 38
Irreducible Losses (Billion 1996 Dollars)........ NA 43 46 32 53 to 62 47 to 59 55
Expenditures on Annex I Trading
(Billion 1996 Dollars)....................... NA -26 -31 -16 -26 -30 -17
Purchased Emissions Credits
(Million Metric Tons)c ...................... NA 229 288 147 161 229 171
Change in Carbon Intensity (Percent).......... NA -15.7 -15.8 -15.8 -15.8 -12.9 NA
Change in Fossil Fuel Consumption (Percent) . . . NA -13.2 -14.6 -11.7 -12.7 -10.3 -16.8
2020
Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton) ... 119 188 175 131 141 123 142
Change in Actual Gross Domestic Product
From Reference Projection
Percent ................................ -1.5 -0.96 -1.7 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 NA
Billion 1996 Dollars ....................... NA -120 -226 -41 -76 -63 NA
Loss in Potential Gross Domestic Product
Relative to Reference Projection
(Billion 1996 Dollars)....................... NA 44 42 31 33 to 43 24 to 35 71
Irreducible Losses (Billion 1996 Dollars)........ NA 73 82 46 56 to 66 52 to 63 102
Expenditures on Annex I Trading
(Billion 1996 Dollars)....................... NA -33 -40 -15 -23 -28 -31
Purchased Emissions Credits
(Million Metric Tons)c ...................... NA 177 228 111 161 229 219
Change in Carbon Intensity (Percent).......... NA -22.8 -18.8 -23.5 -22.2 -20.1 NA
Change in Fossil Fuel Consumption (Percent) . . . NA -18.7 -23.3 -19.3 -16.2 -14.2 -20.6

aEPRI allows some contribution from the CDM.

bThe 1990+9% and 1990+14% cases are shown for comparison only, because the carbon emissions levels projected in these cases are near
those of the other studies shown.

cFor EIA and EPRI, purchased carbon emissions credits equal the difference between the emissions target and 1,306 million metric tons (3 percent
below the 1990 carbon emissions level).

NA = not available.

Sources: EIA: National Energy Modeling System, runs FD09ABV.D080398B and FD14ABV.D080398B. CRA: Paul M. Bernstein, Charles River Associates, e-mail
communications, August 24, 1998. EPRI: E-mail provided by R. Richels of EPRI on July 6, 1998. DRI: Standard and Poors DRI, The Impact of Meeting the Kyoto Protocol
on Energy Markets and the Economy (July 1998). MIT: Facsimile dated July 10, 1998, from Prof. Henry Jacoby, MIT, Cambridge Massachusetts. PNNL: Ronald Sands,
PNNL, e-mail communication, August 26, 1998.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Because of the aggregation of sectors and outputs in the
CRA analysis, CRA's analytical approach is likely to
underestimate the costs of the Kyoto Protocol.98 In the
CRA reference case GDP grows rapidly from 2010 to
2020, making it more difficult to comply with the Kyoto
Protocol in the 1990-7% case. Hence, the carbon price is
projected to rise to $316 per metric ton in 2020.

WEFA projects reference case GDP that is about 1.3 percent lower than EIA's in 2010 but then rises above EIA's
by about $670 billion, or about 6 percent, by 2020. The
difference in the carbon prices in 2010 between the two
studies ($265 per metric ton for WEFA and $348 per metric ton for EIA) is largely attributable to (1) a lower reference case GDP and lower emissions in the WEFA study,
so that smaller reductions are needed to comply with the
1990-7% target, and (2) differences in the mix of fuels
used in the reference case to generate electricity. WEFA's
analysis projects less coal and more gas use for electricity generation than EIA's analysis, with basically the
same electricity demands in 2010.

In 2020, the WEFA carbon price rises to about $360 per
metric tonÑabout $55 per metric ton higher than the
EIA carbon price for the same case. The reason for this
difference is based on three factors. Differences in the
reference case GDP growth rates (WEFA's GDP grows
much faster than EIA's from 2010 to 2020) lead to the
need for higher fuel prices in the WEFA projection to
comply with the 1990-7% case. WEFA assumes that
nuclear life extensions would not be economical or
feasible, whereas EIA allows economical nuclear refurbishments. WEFA projects that renewables cannot
contribute significantly to electricity generation: renewable use for generation increases by only 11 percent
in 2020 relative to the baseline, even with a carbon
price of $360 per metric ton, whereas EIA projects a 115percent increase in the use of renewables for electricity generation in the 1990-7% case relative to the EIA
reference case.

The EPRI analysis begins to react to the Kyoto Protocol
in 1990, resulting in lower carbon prices and GDP losses
than in the EIA analysis for 2010.99 Further, since the
model does not have end-use technology detail, the rate
of autonomous energy efficiency improvement is
assumed as a policy lever and is based on the analyst's
judgement or on calibration with other midterm,
technology-rich models.

The pattern of carbon prices in the MIT study is similar
to that in the EIA and EPRI studies. In the MIT analysis,
decisionmakers do not see future prices or the impending Kyoto Protocol. In addition, capital stock is vintagedÑi.e., once capital is invested in equipment, that
capital is sunk and the technology's efficiency and use
cannot change during its survival period.

Carbon prices in 2020 for the 1990-7% case are more
evenly distributed among the studies, ranging between
$147 per metric ton for MIT to about $360 per metric ton
for WEFA. The declining carbon prices in the EPRI and
EIA studies result from the projected increasing penetration of carbon-free or low-carbon generation technologies, coupled with greater selection of more efficient
technologies that become economical with higher end-
use fuel prices. MIT's carbon price in 2020, $147 per metric ton, is the lowest because this study implicitly has
greater optimism than EIA and EPRI that the economy
will produce and adopt low-carbon or carbon-free technologies by 2020.

As already mentioned, the lead time that decisionmakers have to anticipate the Kyoto Protocol and the
assumed responsiveness of consumers and equipment
(demand elasticities and fuel substitution elasticities)
can significantly affect the projections of how costly and
difficult the transition will be. Most of the studies compared, with the exception of WEFA and EIA, allow the
transitions to begin as early as 1990 or 1995.100 Since
starting earlier allows consumers and producers to react
earlier, the economy has more time to adjust to the
Kyoto Protocol. This may result in an underestimation
of the carbon prices and the midterm actual GDP losses
to the economy that will be required to achieve the 19907% case.

The CRA, WEFA, and PNNL studies exhibit a rising
trend in the carbon prices required over time to maintain
the 1990-7% emissions target, because technological
improvements do not occur quickly enough relative to
demand growth. The technology-rich studies reach their
peak carbon price in the early part of the compliance
period, followed by a flat or declining carbon price to
2020 as more efficient technologies are adopted. The
relatively high energy prices make higher-efficiency and
higher-cost equipment more competitive in the early
part of the compliance period and give rise to normal
learning through manufacturing experience, which

98 The CRA model uses perfect foresight for investment behavior, which may also contribute to underestimating the costs. It assumes
that products (like gas and coal) are not perfect substitutes and capital is not perfectly malleable. Further, the demand for energy is only
moderately responsive to price changes, compared to the PNNL model. CRA develops its model parameters using the GTAP database from
Purdue University and the International Energy Agency (IEA) database.

99 EPRI's MERGE model is an Aggregate Optimization Model and has perfect foresight. The EPRI model is being rebenchmarked to
start in 2000 and should result in higher carbon prices and higher GDP losses in 2010 than are shown in their current analysis.

100For PNNL, since the model begins solving in 1985, policy instruments could be introduced as early as 1990. For this study, PNNL reports that the policy instruments for the Kyoto Protocol were phased in beginning in 2001.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



helps to reduce equipment costs in the later part of the
compliance period.

The other major area of disagreement among the projections is the impact on actual GDP. In 2010, actual GDP
losses relative to each reference case range from -1.0 percent (EPRI) at the low end to about 4.2 percent (EIA) at
the high end. Some economists have noted that the total
GDP impact on the U.S. economy of regulatory programs such as the Kyoto Protocol are large, and that the
true costs typically exceed direct costs by a factor of two
to four, particularly in the few years following implementation.101 CRA projects a 2.1-percent loss in GDP in
2010 and a 2.4-percent loss in GDP in 2020. This contrasts
with the EIA projection of a 4.2-percent loss in GDP in
2010 and a 0.8-percent loss in 2020, a trend returning to
the reference case GDP. The EIA projected recovery
trend is due to declining real prices after 2012, whereas
increasing GDP losses for CRA are due to continued
increasing delivered energy prices throughout the projection period and the relative high GDP level in the reference case from which the reductions must be made.

Most of the reasons for the differences in carbon prices
also contribute to the differences in GDP losses. For
example, perfect foresight and long lead times allow the
economy to adjust at minimum cost as in the PNNL,
EPRI, and CRA models. In the WEFA analysis, lower
GDP growth in the early period allows for lower carbon
prices and smaller GDP losses relative to the EIA study.
CRA's lower carbon price and smaller GDP losses are
attributable to four factors: (1) the lack of representation
of a revenue recycling mechanism, (2) the high level of
aggregation of the U.S. energy-economy, (3) the length
of the adjustment period, and (4) the incorporation of
international trade flows.

The GDP losses portrayed in the analyses are not based
on the same definitions. EIA, DRI, and WEFA report
losses in potential GDP102 and full macroeconomic adjustment costs. CRA and EPRI report losses to potential

GDP plus some but not all of the macroeconomic adjustment costs, because the level of aggregation used to represent the U.S. macroeconomy does not permit a full
representation of the macroeconomic adjustment costs.
PNNL reports only the direct cost of meeting the
required commitment level, i.e., losses in potential GDP.
The loss in potential GDP can be estimated for all the
studies except MIT and can be combined with payments
for international permits to develop ÒirreducibleÓ losses
to the economy arising from compliance with the Kyoto
Protocol for each of the two cases (no trading and Annex
I trading).103 Estimates of irreducible losses to GDP in
the 1990-7% case in 2010 are remarkably close, ranging
from $60 billion for WEFA to about $94 billion for EIA
(in 1996 dollars). The range of irreducible losses in 2020
is $75 billion for EIA to $130 billion for WEFA. WEFA
projects the largest potential loss in 2020 because it has
the highest carbon prices and its reference case projection of GDP in 2020 is one of the two highest.

The GDP comparisons imply that there is a great deal of
uncertainty about the actual economic losses that could
result from adherence to the Kyoto Protocol, with actual
economic losses rising to as high as 4.2 percent of reference case GDP in 2010Ñparticularly for analyses that
use highly disaggregated representations of the U.S.
economy (EIA and WEFA). The difference between
actual losses and potential GDP losses represents macroeconomic adjustment costs, which are viewed by economists as theoretically reducible by optimal fiscal and
monetary policies. This may be another factor leading to
the wide variation in estimates of macroeconomic
adjustment costs. Nevertheless, there is considerable
agreement on the level of the potential GDP losses.

All the studies are in close agreement on the change in
carbon intensity that must occur relative to each reference case. Reductions in carbon intensities are between
24 percent and 29 percent in 2010 and between 32 percent and 39 percent in 2020.

101Jorgenson and Wilcoxen, ÒImpact of Environmental Legislation on U.S. Economic Growth and Capital Costs,Ó in U.S. Environmental
Policy and Economic Growth: How Do We Fare? (Washington, DC: American Council on Capital Formation, 1992); ÒReducing U.S. Carbon
Emissions: An Econometric General Equilibrium Assessment,Ó Resource and Energy Economics, Vol. 15 (1993), pp. 7-25; and P.M. Bernstein
and W.D. Montgomery, ÒHow Much Could Kyoto Really Cost? A Reconstruction and Reconciliation of Administration EstimatesÓ (Charles
River Associates, 1998).

102The curve shown in Figure 114 in Chapter 6 of this report summarizes the relationship between the level of control and the marginal
cost of that level of control. Hence, at each increment of control, the marginal cost is by definition equal to the economic resources that must
be forgone in order to achieve the increment in control. It follows, therefore, that the sum of the marginal costs must equal the total cost of the
controls that would be internalized in markets. This is the integral of the area under the curve, shown as area A in Figure 114. Conceptually,
this is essentially the same effect that is measured by the unavoidable cost in the reduction of potential GDP in the macroeconomic models.
As shown in Figure 115, this measure of the unavoidable costs using the results of the NEMS model is nearly identical to the similar estimate
from the DRI macroeconomic model.

103Furthermore, for the balance of total emissions needed to meet the Kyoto targets, permits would be purchased on the international
market. If the marginal cost of control in the United States and the international prices of permits are in equilibrium, then the area B in Figure
114 will represent the total payments for permits, and the sum of the two parts will represent the irreducible losses to the economy under
that trading regime to meet the Kyoto requirements.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Comparisons of Annex I Trading Cases

Only five analysesÑMIT, EPRI, CRA, PNNL, and
DRIÑprovided simulations of the impacts of sinks, offsets and Annex I trading. DRI's Case 2 is compared with
the other Annex I trading cases because carbon permits
purchased abroad are closest, falling in the range of 147
to 288 million metric tons.104 Two EIA casesÑ1990+9%
and 1990+14%Ñare compared with those studies in
Table 31, because both of these cases yield carbon emissions in the range of the other studies. Internationally
purchased carbon credits in 2020 fall in the range of 111
to 229 million metric tons for all these analyses. EIA's
carbon prices in the 1990+9% case is $163 per metric
ton105 in 2010 and $141 per metric ton in 2020. The EIA
carbon price in the 1990+14% case is $129 per metric ton
in 2010 and $123 per metric ton in 2020. MIT provided
only carbon prices and a range of GDP losses; thus, further comparisons are not possible.

EIA's purchased carbon credits in 2010 (229 million metric tons) in the 1990+14% case are closest to the projected
international purchased credits by EPRI and CRA (229
and 288 million metric tons, respectively). The carbon
price projected in these cases ranges from $109 per metric ton for CRA to $129 per metric ton for EIA, a statistically insignificant variation. While there is considerable
agreement on the carbon price and credit purchases in
these analyses, actual GDP losses projected in EIA's
1990+14% case are more than 200 percent higher than
the actual GDP losses projected by EPRI and more than
33 percent higher than CRA's. It is also about 50 percent
higher than DRI's.

In the Annex I trading cases, only the DRI and EIA
analyses consider how the domestic funds will be recycled back to the economy. EIA assumed that the revenues from domestic sales of carbon emission permits
would be recycled back to consumers through a personal income tax rebate, as described in Chapter 6,106
and DRI assumes a return of funds to business. The DRI
choice of returning the carbon revenues to business provides a significant boost to business investment in the
economy, which implies higher business profits and
lower real incomes for consumers in the medium term.
According to the DRI analysis, returning carbon revenues to business ultimately would accelerate recovery

and lead to stronger economic growth in the longer term
than would recycling the carbon revenues to consumers.
The impacts of the two recycling mechanisms account
for most of the differences in macroeconomic results
between the EIA and DRI analyses.

The DRI approach also phases in the carbon policy over
a 10-year period (an approach necessitated by the structure of the DRI energy model), whereas EIA phases in
the policy over a 3-year period. This factor adds to the
difference between the EIA and DRI analyses of macroeconomic costs. In the DRI study, the 10-year phase-in
and the assumption that consumers will anticipate and
respond to the Kyoto Protocol early results in a
smoother economic transition and tends to give a lower
carbon price than analyses with shorter phase-in periods
like EIA's.

The estimates of unavoidable (irreducible) lossesÑ
income losses that cannot be recoveredÑfor the U.S.
economy range from $32 billion (DRI Case 2) to about
$62 billion (EIA) in 2010. There are many frictions that
can increase costs above the irreducible minimum.
These include business cycles, international trade and
capital constraints, regulation, use of imperfect instruments instead of auction permits, coal subsidies, CAFE
standards, exemptions, efficiency losses from taxation,
etc.107 Various Federal Reserve and Federal Government
policies might mitigate actual GDP losses. There is considerable uncertainty regarding all the above actions.

The EPRI analysis, because of its perfect foresight and
optimizing framework, yields actual GDP losses that are
closest to its estimated unavoidable losses. CRA estimates actual GDP losses that are almost 3 times its
unavoidable losses in 2010, and estimated actual GDP
losses in 2010 for the DRI and EIA 1990+14% cases are 3
to 4 times the unavoidable losses. Because DRI's and
EIA's actual GDP losses are based on a detailed macroeconomic model that has limited foresight, focuses on
the transitional process rather than the steady-state condition of the economy, their projected GDP losses are
expected to be the largest and perhaps more appropriate
in the mid term (through 2010). WEFA and EIA incorporate revenue recycling, while DRI redirects the revenues
through higher profits to business.

104Standard and Poors DRI recently analyzedthree cases for theUMWA-BCOA LMPCP Fund. Case 1 assumed that8percentof the necessary carbon reduction in 2010 would be accomplished from sinks and offsets, 15 percent from trading, and 77 percent domestically. Case 2
assumed that sinks and offsets would account for 12 percent of the required reduction from baseline in 2010, 30 percent would be purchased
from abroad, and 58 percent would be accomplished domestically. Case 3 assumes that sinks and offsets would generate 16 percent of the required reductions from baseline, 55 percent of the reduction would be purchased from abroad, and 29 percent of the reduction to be accomplished within domestic energy markets. Given that the DRI baseline for 1990 carbon emissions is 1,336 million metric tons, the domestic
target for Case 1 in 2010 (1,354 million metric tons) is about 1 percent above 1990 levels, Case 2 (1,452 million metric tons) is about 9 percent
above 1990 levels, and Case 3 (1,593 million metric tons) is about 19 percent above 1990 levels.

105For simplicity and ease of exposition, it is assumed in this chapter that the carbon price, the price at the margin that the United States is

willing to pay to reduce carbon emissions, equals the internationally traded permit price.

106In Chapter 6, EIA also considers a social security tax rebate.

107Tom Tietenberg, Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, Third Edition (Harper Collins Publishers, 1992).

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



The DRI and EIA analyses share the same DRI mac-for the United States to meet its commitments in 2020
roeconomic model; however, they differ in the way they through Annex I trading and raises the carbon permit
represent the energy market. DRI uses a largely price by 65 percent relative to 2010. The reason for the
econometric approach, with some technology compo-60-percent increase in 2020 in the CRA carbon price is
nents to simulate equipment turnover. Responses of related to the differences in the representation of
energy demand to energy prices are approximated advanced technologies, the level of aggregation of the
through demand elasticities. Elasticity estimates can CRA model as previously discussed, and the absence of
vary dramatically and are a major factor in determining easy carbon permits from Russia.
results.

The Administration's estimate of the costs of implement-
Because DRI and EIA share the same macroeconomic ing the Kyoto Protocol109 has been developed, in part, by
model, the reference case108 estimates of macroeconomic using the PNNL model. The Administration's analysis
variables are nearly identical for 2010. The differences in does not provide sufficient data to be included in Tables
the reference case energy projections are primarily due 30 and 31; however, the Administration asserts in Table
to differences in fuel prices. By 2020, the differences 4 of the analysis (page 52) that under Annex I trading,
between the DRI and EIA macroeconomic projections the carbon price would be reduced by 72 percent and the
widen as differences in fuel prices widen. resource cost would be decreased by 57 percent relative

to a case in which all carbon reductions are achieved
The EIA 1990+9% case reduces more emissions domesti-domestically. Using Tables 4 and 5 on pages 52 and 53 of
cally (325 million metric tons) than the 1990+14% case at the Administration's report on the Kyoto Protocol, the

an average carbon price of $159 per metric ton (peaking carbon price for the 1990-7% case can be calculated to be
at $163 per metric ton) for the 2008-2012 period. The $192 per metric ton (in 1996 dollars), and the irreducible
unavoidable losses to the U.S. economy for 2010 are esti-economic losses can calculated to be $60 billion. When
mated to be slightly ($3 to $6 billion) more than in the Annex I trading is assumed, the Administration projects
1990+14% case. The actual GDP losses are more than 3.5 that carbon prices would be reduced to $54 per metric

times the unavoidable losses in the EIA cases. ton, with $26 billion dollars of irreducible losses.110 The

The carbon price in the two EIA cases and the MIT trad-relatively lower GDP growth rate from 1995 to 2010 in
ing case declines from 2010 to 2020, unlike the carbon the Administration's reference case analysisÑ2.1 per

cent annually, compared with 2.3 percent in the AEO98prices in the EPRI, CRA, and DRI analyses that increase reference case, is a major factor that results in a lower

over the decade. Most of the reasons for these differ-

carbon price and lower economic costs needed to

ences have already been described in the 1990-7% com-achieve a carbon target. parison case and will not be repeated here. However,

one noteworthy difference remainsÑthe availability Based on Tables 30 and 31, the following can be summa-
and cost of Annex I carbon permits and international rized:
trade. In the EPRI model, inexpensive permits are presumed to be available from Russia in the early part of the ¥ There is no clear consensus on how effective Annex I
Kyoto Protocol implementation period but are assumed trading will be in reducing carbon prices and
not to be available in the later part of the period. The the costs to the United States. WEFA believes that
elimination of the easy Russian permits makes it harder Annex I trading will not be effective at all because of

108Other reference case differences that influence the Kyoto analysis include: (1) The DRI reference case projects 3.1 quadrillion Btu
lower primary energy consumption and 1.8 quadrillion Btu lower fossil fuel consumption in 2010 than does EIA. By 2020, the differences
grow to 4.2 quadrillion Btu of primary energy and 2.4 quadrillion Btu of fossil fuel consumption. Associated carbon emissions are also
lower. Consequently, it should be less costly for the economy to achieve the same carbon target (1,452 million metric tons) in the DRI analysis than in the EIA analysis (1,461 million metric tons in 1990+9% case), as Table 31 confirms. (2) The DRI reference case projects higher world
oil prices, higher delivered coal prices, and lower gas prices than the EIA reference case and greater coal, lower gas, and lower oil consumption than the EIA reference case for 2010 and 2020. The differences in the mix of fuel consumption are related to the differences in fuel prices
in the cases. Because the delivered price that consumers react to is the sum of the fuel costs plus the carbon price, when oil and coal prices are
higher (without the carbon price), the additional carbon price required to achieve the same delivered coal and petroleum product prices will
be lower. Higher reference case prices imply lower required carbon prices to induce an energy demand or mix change. Lower carbon prices
usually result in lower economic losses.

109The Kyoto Protocol and the President's Policies To Address Climate Change: Administration Economic Analysis (Washington, DC, July 1998).

110According to Table 5, page 53, of the Administration's report, Annex I trading with participation by key developing countries would
result in a permit price of $23 per metric ton and irreducible losses of $12 billion. Table 4 on page 52 of the report indicates that the permit
price in that case would be reduced by 88 percent and the resource cost would be reduced by 80 percent relative to a Òdomestic onlyÓ case.
This means that 12 percent of the carbon price for the domestic only case would be $23, and thus the carbon price in the domestic only case
would equal $192 per metric ton. Similarly, 20 percent of the domestic only resource cost would be $12 billion, meaning that the domestic
only resource cost would be $60 billion. Using the percentages for Annex I trading in Table 4, the carbon price and the irreducible losses can
also be derived for the Annex I trading case.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



political and implementation difficulties. Others,
like CRA, EPRI, and PNNL, suggest that carbon
prices in 2010 can be reduced by about 60 percent.

¥ All the studies project irreducible losses to the economy that are small (less than 1 percent of GDP in
2010 and 2020) in absolute magnitudeÑbetween $32
billion and $62 billion in 2010 and between $46 billion and $102 billion in 2020. The wider differences
in 2020 reflect the different perspectives on production losses to the economy associated with forced
reductions in fossil fuel energy use.
¥ With Annex I trading, estimated actual GDP losses
relative to each reference case range from 0.5 percent
to about 2 percent.
¥ If the United States is required to achieve stabilization at the 1990-7% levels, the estimate of carbon
prices required for stabilization in 2010 range from a
low of $221 per metric ton to $348 per metric ton,
with the vast majority in the $265 to $295 per metric
ton range. Actual GDP losses are projected to range
from 1.0 percent to 4.2 percent. However, since all
the studies except EIA's and DRI's assume early U.S.
action (before 1998) to limit carbon emissions, their
estimates of carbon prices and GDP estimates are
likely to be low.
The ÒFive-Lab StudyÓ

Five U.S. Department of Energy Laboratories were
asked in the winter of 1996-97 (before the Kyoto conference) to develop technology-oriented strategies for
reducing U.S. carbon emissions to 1990 levels by 2010.111
To represent the potential impact of new technology
strategies on carbon emissions, the study assumes
increased performance and lower costs for new technologies, new government policies that promote their
adoption into the market, and a greater propensity by
consumers to buy them than they have shown in the
past. In addition, the Five-Lab Study assumes the lower
economic growth (and lower carbon emissions) in the
Annual Energy Outlook 1997 than the EIA analysis
described in this report.

The principal components of the Five-Lab Study focus
on the adoption of energy-efficient technologies under
the assumption of a $25 and $50 per metric ton domestic
carbon price; an aggressive research and development
(R&D) program; and aggressive but unspecified new
policies to facilitate adoption of energy-efficient technologies. The analysis was produced using a series of
independent end-use sector models that were manually
coupled to an electricity market model that assumes a
deregulated electricity market.112 Thus, feedback
between energy markets and the rest of the economy
were not captured. Consequently, the individual sector
solutions may be inconsistent with each other and most
likely do not represent a market equilibrium.

The Five-Lab Study is not directly comparable with any
of the analyses compared above, because it was not prepared using an integrated modeling framework that
simultaneously balances the energy demand for equipment and consumption made by consumers in all segments of the economy with the supply and prices of
fuels and economic growth. Therefore, simple comparisons between the Five-Lab Study and EIA's analysis can
be misleading.

Given all the above qualifications, three comparisons are
made between the Five-Lab Study and the EIA analysis
(Tables 32 and 33). The Five-Lab Study is compared in
terms of (1) the EIA case that comes closest to achieving a
carbon price of $50 per metric ton in 2010 (the 1990+24%
case), (2) the EIA case that comes closest to reducing
carbon emissions by about the same amount relative to
its baseline (the 1990+9% case), and (3) the EIA case that
focuses on advanced technologies (the 1990+9% high
technology sensitivity case). By design, none of the Five-
Lab Study scenarios results in carbon emissions that are
below 1990 levels, because they were targeted to
achieving stabilization at 1990 levels.

The Five-Lab Study defines three scenarios: (1) an efficiency case, (2) a high efficiency/low carbon case with a
$25 per metric ton carbon price (25 HE/LC), and (3) a
high efficiency/low carbon case with a $50 per metric
ton carbon price (50 HE/LC). The efficiency case
assumes better technology and improved cost competitiveness as compared to the business-as-usual case,

111Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions: Potential Impacts of Energy-Efficient and Low Carbon Technologies by 2010 and Beyond (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and Argonne National Laboratory, September
1997).

112For the buildings sector (residential and commercial), a spreadsheet model was used for the Five-Lab Study, and it was calibrated to
yield the results of the Annual Energy Outlook 1997 (AEO97) for a business-as-usual case. For the industrial sector, the Long-Term Industrial
Energy Forecasting model was used, and it was calibrated to the AEO97 results for the business-as-usual case. For the transportation sector,
the transportation model of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) was used, and the AEO97 baseline was modified based on the
judgment of analysts at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to develop the business-as-usual case. For the electricity sector, a new model was
developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which assumed a deregulated electricity industry.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table 32. Comparison of Energy Consumption, Gross Domestic Product, and Energy Intensity Results
for EIA and Five-Lab Study Analyses

Projection 1990 1996
2010
Five-Lab Study EIA
Business
as Usual 50 HE/LC Reference 1990+24% 1990+9%
1990+9%
High Technology

Energy Use by Sector
(Quadrillion Btu)
Buildings ....................... 29.8 34.3 36.0 32.0 38.6 36.1 32.2 33.3
Industrial ....................... 31.4 34.6 37.4 33.6 40.0 38.5 36.9 34.6
Transportation ................... 22.7 24.9 32.3 27.8 32.6 31.9 30.5 29.8
Total ......................... 83.9 93.8 105.7 93.4 111.2 106.5 99.6 97.7
Gross Domestic Product
Billion 1992 Chain-Weighted Dollars. . 6,139 6,928 9,185 9,185 9,429 9,333 9,241 9,277a
Change From Reference Projection
(Percent) ....................... Ñ Ñ Ñ 0.0 Ñ -1.0 -2.0 -1.65
Energy Intensity
Thousand Btu per Dollar of GDP .... 13.67 13.54 11.51 10.17 11.79 11.42 10.78 10.54a
Annual Percent Change, 1996-2010. . Ñ Ñ -1.2 -2.0 -1.0 -1.25 -1.65 -1.78

aThe GDP and intensity values are approximations derived without using the full DRI model.

Ñ = not applicable.
Sources: Five-Lab StudyÑInterlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions: Potential
Impacts of Energy-Efficient and Low Carbon Technologies by 2010 and Beyond (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Pacific
Northwest National Laboratory, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and Argonne National Laboratory, September 1997), Table 1.1. EIAÑNational Energy Modeling
System, runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, and HITECH09.D080498B.

Table 33. Comparison of Carbon Emissions Results for EIA and Five-Lab Study Analyses

(Million Metric Tons)

Projection 1990 1996
2010
Five-Lab Study EIA
Business
as Usual 50 HE/LC Reference 1990+24% 1990+9%
1990+9%
High Technology

Carbon Emissions by Sectora
Buildings ....................... 457 516 571 509 615 545 424 462
Industrial ....................... 454 476 548 455 559 519 462 437
Transportation ................... 434 471 616 513 617 605 576 562
Total ......................... 1,346 1,463 1,735 1,340 1,791 1,668 1,462 1,461
Electricity Generationb ............ 477 517 636 500
(-136)c
657 567 409 446
Change From Reference Emissions . . . Ñ Ñ Ñ 395 Ñ 127 342 342
Carbon Price
(1996 Dollars per Metric Ton) ........ Ñ Ñ Ñ 50 Ñ 67 163 121

aCarbon emissions in each sector include a share of the carbon emitted from electricity generation.

bIn the EIA cases, carbon emissions reduced from electricity generation are accounted for in the end-use sectors.

cFor the 50 HE/LC case, 136 million metric tons saved in electricity generation must be subtracted from the emissions in the end-use sectors,
which do not incorporate the saved emissions for generation.

Ñ = not applicable.
Sources: Five-Lab StudyÑInterlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions: Potential
Impacts of Energy-Efficient and Low Carbon Technologies by 2010 and Beyond (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Pacific
Northwest National Laboratory, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and Argonne National Laboratory, September 1997), Table 1.2. EIAÑNational Energy Modeling
System, runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, and HITECH09.D080498B.

as a result of additional government spending on R&D by 2010, with a carbon price that begins in 2000 and rises
and new, unspecified government programs and poli-until 2010. The two HE/LC cases differ only in the carcies encouraging adoption of energy-efficient technolo-bon prices assumed, one reaching $25 per metric ton in
gies. The HE/LC cases assume even more aggressive 2010 and the other $50 per metric ton. The Five-Lab
government spending, policies, and programs with Study focuses on the $50 per metric ton case because that
regard to development and deployment of energy-analysis finds that carbon emissions can be stabilized at
efficient and low-carbon technologies. These cases 1990 levels by 2010. This case is equivalent to 5 percent
assume that government policies and programs will be above 1990 levels when adjusted for the carbon emission
phased in gradually beginning in 2000 and implemented and economic baseline used in the EIA analysis.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Comparison of EIA Cases With the
Five-Lab Study 50 HE/LC Case

The principal factors that explain differences between
the EIA cases and the Five-Lab Study results include (1)
lower reference case economic growth (1.9 percent
annually for the Five-Lab study versus 2.2 percent annually for EIA) and carbon emissions growth (70 million
metric tons lower in 2010) than the EIA reference case;

(2) a more aggressive menu of technologies in the 50
HE/LC case than in either the 1990+24% case or the
1990+9% case, due to the assumption of aggressive
R&D; (3) a more aggressive consumer responseÑ
assumed through changes to their purchase behavior for
energy-efficient equipment and changes to energy conservationÑthan has been seen historically, as the result
of new, unspecified government policies; and (4) a nonintegrated analysis, in which the feedback between markets is not captured and some double counting of benefits is probable.
As illustrated below, differences in the reference GDP
and carbon emission growth rates can have an
enormous impact on the difficulty or ease of achieving
target carbon emissions, the carbon prices needed to
achieve a carbon emissions target, and the emissions
reductions achieved.

Comparison With the EIA 1990+24% Case: This comparison is made because the carbon prices are similar in
the two cases ($60 per metric ton for EIA and $50 per
metric ton for the Five-Lab Study.) At $67 per metric ton,
EIA projects carbon emissions will be reduced by 123
million metric tons (7 percent relative to the reference
case) in 2010. The Five-Lab Study projects a carbon
emissions reduction of 395 million metric tons (23
percent) from its baseline in 2010 at the carbon price of
$50 per metric ton. EIA projects a GDP loss of about $14
billion in 2010 and an annual 1.25-percent rate of decline
in energy intensity from 1996 to 2010. The Five-Lab
Study estimates no GDP losses and an annual energy
intensity decline rate of 2.0 percent. Although the EIA
cases assume a dynamically changing menu of
technologies, the differences in energy intensity result
from the assumed penetration of even more efficient
technologies in the Five-Lab Study due to the more
aggressive technology assumptions and consumer
behavior.

Comparison With the EIA 1990+9% Case: The EIA
1990+9% case reaches a carbon target of 1,467 million
metric tonsÑabout 325 million metric tons below EIA's
reference caseÑin 2010. The Five-Lab Study 50 HE/LC
case reduces carbon emissions by 396 million metric tons
below the business-as-usual case. If the two studies had
used EIA's reference levels of emissions in 2010, then
1,416 million metric tons would have been the adjusted

carbon emissions in the Five-Lab Study 50 HE/LC case.
Nevertheless, the carbon price required in the EIA
1990+9% case is about $163 per metric ton, compared
with $50 per metric ton in the Five-Lab Study. The combination of more advanced technologies and consumer
behavior, coupled with a lower reference case economy
and carbon emissions, allows the Five-Lab Study to
achieve comparable carbon emission reductions at a
much lower carbon price.

GDP losses are estimated to be close to zero in the Five-
Lab Study. GDP losses in the EIA 1990+9% case are estimated to be about 2.0 percent relative to the EIA reference case. GDP in the EIA 1990+9% case in 2010 is about
$80 billion above that in the Five-Lab Study' business-asusual case. Consequently, a significant portion of the difference in the carbon prices required to achieve the
respective carbon emission targets can be explained by
differences in reference GDP and carbon emission levels.

Comparison With the EIA 1990+9% High Technology
Case: In the 1990+9% high technology case, EIA's projected energy intensity reduction rate approaches 1.8
percent annually and requires a carbon price of $110 per
metric ton. The technological progress assumed is
roughly similar to that in the Five-Lab Study, but EIA's
consumer decisionmaking remains unchanged. The
annual rate of change in energy intensity, due primarily
to technological change, in the 50 HE/LC for 1996-2010
is about 2 percent per year, a rate that is historically
unprecedented for any 14-year period when energy
prices are relatively stable, illustrating the study's more
aggressive assumptions about cost-effective technology
and consumer behavior. Some of the assumptions of the
Five-Lab Study that explain the major differences from
the EIA results presented in this report are discussed
below.

Differences in Assumptions

The following list identifies representative differences
between the major assumptions between the EIA reference caseÑa minor modification of the Annual Energy
Outlook 1998 (AEO98) reference caseÑand those used
for the Five-Lab Study. The EIA reference case assumes
that current policies continue unchanged for the entire
forecast period and that technology continues to evolve
as represented by EIA's assessment of the best engineering estimates of their cost and performance during the
forecast period. The Five-Lab Study is based on the
assumption that technological advances are supported
by various new governmental policies; therefore, it is
expected that penetration rates of new energy-efficient
technologies will generally be higher in the Five-Lab
Study.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Buildings Sector Assumptions

Technological Optimism and Adoption: The EIA reference case technology menu for the buildings sector
improves over time in terms of both costs and efficiencies, including future technologies that are unavailable
today. Market penetration is determined by economics
and observed consumer behavior. For the commercial
sector, available technologies are selected on the basis of
annualized life-cycle costs and specified replacement
equipment behavior rules (e.g., same fuel or no constraints). For the residential sector, technologies are
selected on the basis of first cost and first-year operating
cost, using observed market discount rates. The EIA reference case and carbon reduction cases use a distribution of implicit discount rates developed from observed
consumer behavior, ranging from 15 percent to more
than 200 percent in real terms; energy-efficient investments must earn returns greater than these discount
rates in order to be adopted by consumers.

The Five-Lab Study 50 HE/LC case includes implementation of most of the cost-effective efficiency improvements, using a life-cycle cost calculation based on a 7percent real discount rate for both the residential and
commercial sectors. By assumption, in the Five-Lab
Study 50 HE/LC case, 65 percent of the cost-effective
potential is achieved. The 7-percent discount rate
implies that consumers on average are willing to wait
about 15 years to get their payback on the incremental
investments required to acquire more energy-efficient
equipment. Currently, residential and commercial consumers tend to have payback periods of 6 months to 5
years, and residential homeowners tend to move about
every 7 years. Further, the assumption that 65 percent of
all equipment that is cost-effective at a 7-percent discount rate is purchased assumes that dramatic changes
will occur in consumer behavior as a result of government policy. Because the EIA cases assume no new government policies, these Five-Lab Study assumptions
make a dramatic difference in the efficiency of equipment purchased in the buildings sector and in the carbon
price required to achieve a specified carbon target.

Miscellaneous Electricity Growth: In the EIA cases,
miscellaneous electricity use in the buildings sector,
measured in primary terms, grows at 2.8 percent per
year from 1997 to 2010. In the Five-Lab Study, buildings
sector miscellaneous electricity growth is 0.9 percent per
year from 1997 to 2010 in the HE/LC cases. The difference is significant because it means that electricity
demand is lower in the Five-Lab Study HE/LC cases
than in the EIA cases, requiring a lower carbon price in
the Five-Lab Study to achieve the target.

Transportation Sector Assumptions

Light-Duty Vehicle Cost and Performance: The EIA
reference case achieves a new car efficiency of 30.6 miles

per gallon by 2010. In EIA's 1990+24% case, with a carbon price of $67 per metric ton, new car efficiency
increases to about 32.0 miles per gallon in 2010. In comparison, new car efficiencies reach 50.2 miles per gallon
in the Five-Lab Study HE/LC cases. The Five-Lab Study
achieves the higher efficiency by reaching 73-percent
diesel penetration, 11-percent electric hybrid penetration, and a small penetration of fuel cell vehicles by 2010.
The Five-Lab Study higher efficiencies and penetration
rates were achieved through a variety of assumptions:

(1) a major breakthrough of diesel NOx catalysts was
assumed; (2) the characteristics of advanced diesel vehicles (vehicle price, vehicle range, fuel availability, commercial availability, etc.) were assumed to be the same as
those of gasoline vehicles and to be accepted by consumers; (3) the incremental costs of advanced vehicles were
assumed to be substantially lower than those in the EIA
cases; and (4) with a price increase of 12.5 cents per gallon, consumers were assumed to prefer vehicles with
much lower horsepower in the Five-Lab Study in 2010
(182 horsepower) than projected in the EIA cases (258
horsepower).
Industrial Sector Assumptions

Model Methodology and Calibration: For the Five-Lab
Study, the Long-Term Industrial Energy Forecasting
(LIEF) model was calibrated to yield AEO97 results for
the business-as-usual case. Variations from the
business-as-usual case involved changing two major
assumptions in the LIEF model. For the HE/LC cases,
the capital recovery factor (the implicit discount rate
used to evaluate investment alternatives) was reduced
from 33 percent to 15 percent, and the market penetration factor (the rate at which cost-effective investments
are undertaken) was doubled from 3 percent to 6 percent. Both assumptions accelerate adoption of advanced
technologies in the Five-Lab Study.

Additional Assumptions: The HE/LC cases in the Five-
Lab Study included additional reductions of 31 million
metric tons of carbon-equivalent greenhouse gas emissions, based on results that were not part of the LIEF
modeling exercise. The additional reductions included
14 to 24 million metric tons from advanced turbine systems and 12 to 16 million metric tons of biomass and
black liquor gasification, cement clinker replacement,
and aluminum technologies. The cement clinker replacement and advanced aluminum production cells
were assumed to reduce emissions by 1 to 2 million
metric tons and 3.5 million metric tons of carbon equivalent, respectively, by 2010. These technologies were not
included in the EIA cases.

Electricity Sector Assumptions

Electricity Competition: In each of the Five-Lab Study
cases, greenhouse gas emission reductions in the utility sector result from lower electricity demand in the

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



end-use sectors, the assumed deregulation of the electric
power industry, an assumed carbon permit trading
price of $50 per metric ton, and utility supply-side
assumptions for fossil, nuclear, and renewable technologies. The Five-Lab Study assumes competitive prices in
2010 in all regions. The competitive pricing assumption
tends to raise the price of electricity relative to the regulated cost-of-service price when a carbon price is applied
to the carbon content of the fuels. The EIA reference case
assumes competitive prices in 2010 in only three
regionsÑNew York, California, and New England.

Electricity Demand Growth: In the EIA reference case,
electricity demand is expected to grow by 1.6 percent
per year from 1996 to 2010. In the EIA carbon reduction
cases, electricity demand initially falls in response to
higher electricity prices and then recovers as more efficient units are constructed and brought on line to displace uneconomical units. In the Five-Lab Study 50
HE/LC case, electricity demand is assumed to grow by
just 0.2 percent per year. In 2010, total electricity demand
in the 50 HE/LC case is 17 percent lower than in the EIA
reference case.113 The lower electricity demand growth
in the Five-Lab Study results from its estimates of efficiency improvements in the end-use sectors and lower
growth for new electricity uses.

Coal Retirements: The EIA reference case determines
when and if any generation plants should be retired
based on economics. In the Five-Lab Study, external
assumptions are used in the business-as-usual and
HE/LC cases to determine whether coal plants should
be retired and whether coal units should be co-fired with
biomass. In the 50 HE/LC case, 75 gigawatts of coal-
fired capacity was assumed to be retired by 2010. In the
EIA 1990+24% case, only 2.5 gigawatts of coal capacity
and about 30 gigawatts of oil and gas steam were economically retired by 2010. In the EIA analysis, a carbon
price of $50 per metric ton is insufficient to cause large-
scale retirements of coal plants and replacement by
natural-gas-fired advanced combined-cycle plants.

An Integrated Estimate of the
Five-Lab Study

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
Atmospheric Programs, contracted with Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory to modify the AEO98 version of the
National Energy Modeling System to analyze the technology and policy assumptions of the Five-Lab Study
within an integrated accounting system.114 Substantial
modifications were made to the NEMS to model the

variations of the Five-Lab Study. For example, the
NEMS demand models were used as an accounting tool
to represent the aggressive research and development
program that facilitates adoption of energy-efficient
technologies in the Five-Lab Study. Major assumptions
regarding the retirement of fossil fuel units were implemented manually in the NEMS electricity module to
make room for advanced, low-carbon technologies. The
NEMS integrated framework was retained so that interactions between the supply and demand sectors could
be consistently represented.

The EPA/LBNL study analyzes two of the Five-Lab
Study cases: a high efficiency/low carbon case with a
carbon price of $23 per metric ton and a high efficiency/low carbon case with a carbon price of $50 per
metric ton. All the technology and behavioral assumptions in the Five-Lab Study, with a few exceptions listed
below, were adopted by the EPA/LBNL study. A scenario approach was used to determine the impact of
each major group of assumptions.

The major exceptions included: (1) the hurdle rates
assumed in the residential and commercial sectors were
reduced from the AEO98 baseline to 15 and 18 percent,
respectively, instead of 7 percent in the Five-Lab studyÑ
roughly matching energy consumption in the HE/LC
cases in the Five-Lab Study; (2) 16 gigawatts of coal-fired
capacity and 100 gigawatts of oil-and gas-fired steam
were retired by 2008, whereas the Five-Lab Study retired
about 75 gigawatts of older coal plants and repowered
an additional 45 gigawatts of coal plants as combined-
cycle units; (3) cogeneration capacity was increased
between 2000 and 2010 by 35 gigawatts instead of the 42
to 51-gigawatt capacity increase assumed in the 50
HE/LC case of the Five-Lab Study; (4) wind received an
extension of the renewable tax credit of 1.5 cents per
kilowatthour rather than assuming the penetration of
wind in the Five-Lab Study; and (5)power plant efficiencies were not improved relative to the baseline, unlike
the Five-Lab Study.

The EPA/LBNL preliminary results indicate that, when
all the efficiency and capacity improvements, fossil
generation retirements, other technology enhancements, electricity demand reductions, and behavioral
assumptions are used simultaneously with a carbon
price of $50 per metric ton, carbon emissions can be
reduced in 2010 to 1,491 million metric tons (11 percent
above 1990) and 1,461 million metric tons (9 percent
above 1990) in 2020. Energy intensity declines by a
projected annual rate of 1.9 percent in this case. In

113Total electricity demand in 2010 in the 50 HE/LC case is projected to be 9.7 percent lower than in the 1990+9% case and 4.5 percent
lower than in the 1990+24% case.

114J.G. Koomey, R.C. Richey, S. Laitner, A.H. Sanstad, R.J. Markel, and C. Marnay, Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: an Integrated
Scenario Analysis Using the LBNL-NEMS Model, LBNL-42054 (Lawrence, CA: Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Energy Analysis Department,
September 1998).

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



comparison, the EIA 1990+9% high technology case of $110 per metric ton but without the additional
yields the equivalent carbon emissions with an energy behavioral assumptions used in the EPA/LBNL
intensity decline rate of -1.78 percent and a carbon price analysis.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Appendix A
Modifications to the Reference Case




At the request of the House Science Committee, this
analysis of the Kyoto Protocol is based upon the
assumptions and methodology of the Annual Energy
Outlook 1998 (AEO98).114 Although the reference case in
this report is similar to the reference case from AEO98,
there are some small differences. Modifications were
made in order to permit additional flexibility in the
National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) in response
to higher energy prices or to include certain analyses
previously done offline directly within the modeling
framework. In addition, some assumptions were modified to reflect more recent assessments of technological
improvements and costs. This appendix describes (1)
those changes in assumptions and methodologies that
cause a change to the reference case of AEO98, and (2)
other model changes that were implemented in
preparing the carbon reduction cases.

Modifications to the Reference Case

Industrial

In AEO98, coke imports were incorrectly reported. In
2020, the reference case forecast for coke imports is 260
trillion Btu compared with 82 trillion Btu reported in
AEO98.

Due to a revision in the methodology for representing
the non-energy-intensive industries, the reference case
forecast for electricity consumption in 2020 is 220 trillion
Btu, or 4.7 percent, less than in AEO98. The modification
results in an improved representation of the non-
energy-intensive industries.

Electricity Generation

Electricity sales are lower by 1.6 percent, or 68 billion
kilowatthours, in 2020 compared with AEO98, primarily
due to the revision in industrial demand noted above.

The ratio of peak load to base load was recalibrated to
recent data, resulting in lower projections of peak
demands and reducing capacity requirements in the
early years of the forecast. This modification reduced the
projection of turbine builds by almost 55 gigawatts in
the pre-2000 period and by almost 34 gigawatts by 2020,
compared with AEO98.

In AEO98, generating plant retirements were developed
offline to the model based on an analysis of when high-
cost units would become uneconomic. Retirement decisions for fossil units and pumped storage are now developed internal to the model based on two criteria. First,
fossil units that are candidates for retirement must have
going-forward costs greater than the total costs of building a replacement over the forecast years for capacity

planning. Second, such units must have short-run costs
greater than revenues in the year it is scheduled for
retirement. This impacts all fossil-fired units. In the
revised reference case, only 5 gigawatts of coal units
retire from 1996 through 2020 compared to 29 gigawatts
in AEO98. Total oil and gas retirements from 1996
through 2020 are 13 gigawatts lower than in AEO98,
with the reduction in retirements most pronounced
around 2005.

Nuclear retirements were also based on an offline analysis in AEO98. The retirement decision is now made internal to the model. After 30 years, if the going-forward
cost of the unit (including all capital expenditures necessary to continue operation) is greater than that of the full
levelized cost of a replacement unit, the unit is retired.
This represents the point in time when many plants need
to replace their turbine generators. This modification
results in about 1 gigawatt of additional nuclear retirements by 2020 relative to AEO98.

Oil and Gas

Lower 48 natural gas reserves are lower in the revised
reference case than in the AEO98 reference case, resulting in lower levels of domestic production and slightly
higher prices. For this analysis, the initial finding rates,
success rates, and the assumed level of technically
recoverable resources in the shallow waters of the Gulf
of Mexico were revised. The initial finding and success
rates were updated using new drilling data published
by EIA and resulted in significantly lower natural gas
reserve additions from conventional sources. The
resources for the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico
were made consistent with the technically recoverable
resource levels estimated by the Minerals Management
Service. This change also lowers the overall level of
reserves, particularly in the later part of the projection
period. Both of these changes put upward pressure on
prices.

Cellulose-derived ethanol was added for this analysis,
based on updated information about this source of ethanol. This supply represents ethanol derived from cellulose biomass such as agricultural crop residuals, switch
gas, and other agricultural wood crops, supplementing
the corn-derived ethanol supply curves. Capital and
operating cost estimates for the cellulose ethanol production were obtained from the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy and decline by 20 percent
linearly throughout the forecast for all cases except the
high technology sensitivities, for which the costs decline
by 50 percent. Consumption of ethanol for gasoline
blending and E85 production is higher in the revised reference case than in AEO98 due to higher demands for
E85 and the availability of attractively-priced cellulose-
based ethanol. The additional availability of cellulose

114Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98) (Washington, DC, December 1997).

Energy Information Administration / Effects of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



based ethanol reverses the downward trend in the
blending of ethanol in gasoline in AEO98. Additional
blending of ethanol in gasoline rises above the levels in
AEO98 starting in 2005 and maintains this level, even
though the subsidy for ethanol is declining through
2020. The additional availability of cellulose-based ethanol also reduces prices in the latter half of the forecast
period.

Canadian natural gas pipeline capacity additions were
assumed to be higher in the revised reference case, particularly in the near term, given updated information on
proposed pipelines. This change resulted in a higher
forecast for Canadian imports and a somewhat lower
domestic natural gas production forecast, even with
relatively consistent consumption levels. As a result,
through the latter half of the forecast, the import prices
in the revised reference case exceed the national average
wellhead price by a greater margin than in the AEO98
reference case.

The forecasts for total domestic natural gas pipeline and
storage capacity builds are lower in the revised reference
case, mainly in the later and earlier years of the forecast,
respectively. This is primarily because anticipated consumption growth was tightened in the capacity planning model. Previously, the model planned for more
consumption than was realized. This change also contributed to a somewhat lower use of pipeline fuel.

Additional Model Changes
Macroeconomic Activity

¥ The previous methodology was a response surface
representation of the Standard and PoorÕs Data
Resources, Inc. (DRI) Macroecnomic Model of the
U.S. Economy. This was replaced with a nonparametric estimation technique known as kernel regression. The kernel regression model mimics DRI
results by comparing inputs from NEMS to databases of inputs and outputs from DRI model simulations of different policy and implementation
strategies. The inputs include tax collections and
energy prices and quantities. The outputs are 99
macroeconomic variables used in NEMS.
¥ As part of the analysis underlying the Kyoto service
report, EIA requested that DRI examine its Federal
Reserve reaction function estimated in the 1997 version of the model, which was the model used in generating AEO98. The DRI model used by EIA in this
service report changed the structural form of the
Federal Reserve reaction function to incorporate a
longer-term view of the tradeoff between inflation
and unemployment changes.

Residential

¥ Short-term price elasticity was increased from -0.15
to -0.25 to reflect increased willingness by consumers
to reduce energy services in the face of dramatically
higher prices, for example, adjusting thermostats,
turning off lights when leaving the room, etc. Also, a
price elasticity was included for more end uses, such
as water heating and clothes drying.
¥ The unit energy consumption values were adjusted
for personal computers, color televisions, and furnace fans to reflect more recent data. Unit energy
consumption values for personal computers are now
higher and for televisions and furnace fans are
lower.
¥ Technology choice consideration for both conventional lighting and torchiere lighting was added.
This allows lighting efficiency levels to be determined by relative equipment costs and electricity
prices.
¥ The responses to large price increases for shell efficiency improvements are lagged over a 5-year
period, as opposed to a total response in 1 year.
¥ The nonfinancial part of consumer hurdle rates was
made a function of energy prices. A doubling of
energy prices results in about a 30-percent reduction
in the nonfinancial hurdle rate, subject to a lower
limit of 15 percent, the assumed financial discount
rate.
¥ New technology databases were updated based on a
report from Arthur D. Little.115
¥ Solar hot water heaters were added as a technology
choice for electric hot water heating.
¥ Fuel switching methodology was reestimated.
¥ Recent Energy Star programs were incorporated that
are aimed at cutting standby losses in televisions and
VCRs.
Commercial

¥ Short-term price elasticities were added to all uses
except commercial refrigeration, including ÒotherÓ
uses such as cogeneration and nonbuilding use.
The short-term price elasticities were increased from
-0.15 to -0.25 to capture a greater consumer response
to increasing fuel prices, such as adjusting thermostats, turning off lights and office equipment when
not in use, etc.
115Arthur D. Little, Inc., EIAÑTechnology Forecast UpdatesÑResidential and Commercial Building TechnologiesÑReference Case, Draft Report, 37125-00 (June 16, 1998).

Energy Information Administration / Effects of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



¥ The proportion of consumers who consider all fuels
in equipment purchase decisions for new construction was allowed to increase. The proportion varies
by building type with all proportions showing a 15percent increase over AEO98 reference case values.
¥ The nonfinancial part of consumer hurdle rates was
made a function of energy prices. A doubling of
energy prices results in about a 30-percent reduction
in the nonfinancial hurdle rate, with a lower limit of
15 percent, the assumed financial discount rate.
¥ New technology databases were updated based on
the Arthur D. Little report cited previously.
Industrial

¥ Retirement rates were made a function of price
changes.
¥ The rate of intensity decline, the technology possibility coefficient, was made a function of price changes.
¥ The representation of cogeneration was revised to
better reflect the incremental energy requirements of
cogeneration. Biomass cogeneration was made a
function of the availability of byproduct biomass,
and natural gas cogeneration was made a function of
the difference between the electricity price and the
natural gas price.
Transportation

¥ An algorithm which switched consumer preferences
toward cars and away from light trucks was added
as a function of fuel price.
¥ The vehicle-miles traveled fuel price elasticity was
increased from -.05 to -0.2.
¥ A direct injection diesel, diesel electric hybrid, and
gasoline fuel cell technologies were added to the
technology menu.
¥ Additional fuel price sensitivity was added to reflect
higher consumer purchase shifting toward smaller
vehicles.
¥ A fuel switching algorithm based on fuel price was
added for flexible fuel and bi-fuel vehicles.
¥ Ultra-high bypass engines for aircraft were currently
made available.
¥ Air travel coefficients were adjusted as a function of
jet fuel prices to a -0.2 fuel price elasticity from -0.04.
¥ Domestic load factors were increased to 69 percent
for domestic flights and 72 percent for international
flights by 2015 beginning in 2005.
¥ Technology trigger prices for freight trucks were
based on a 10-percent discount rate and 20-year payback period.
¥ LE-55 and turbocompound diesel engine technologies were added to the technology menu for freight
trucks.
¥ Time to maximum penetration for most freight truck
technologies was changed to 20 years from 99 years.
¥ Rail ton-miles traveled was made a function of coal
production and average miles traveled of east-west
coal production shares.
Electricity

¥ For this analysis, the decision to retire nuclear plants
is now made internal to the model. As noted before, a
unit is retired after 30 years if the cost of continuing
operation, including required capital expenditures,
exceeds the cost of replacement power. For the carbon reduction cases, the status of the unit is also
reviewed after 40 years, the time for relicensing. The
license can be renewed for 20 years if the cost of continuing operation, including required capital expenditures, is lower than the cost of replacement power.
¥ With increasing competition in the electricity industry, electricity suppliers are reluctant to build excess
capacity. In the revised reference case, total capacity
is limited to 2 percent above the minimum reliability
requirement, compared to 1 percent in AEO98.
¥ Coal-fired units in regions with sufficient biomass
supplies are allowed to cofire with up to 5 percent
biomass.
Renewables

¥ Capital costs for renewable technologies were
increased to reflect impacts of expected short-term
supply bottlenecks (e.g., site identification, permitting, and construction) that could result if capacity
increases rapidly above existing levels. In AEO98,
biomass, solar, and wind capacity could increase 25
percent annually without incurring higher capital
costs. Costs were assumed to increase by one-half
percent for every 1 percent increase of capacity in
excess of 25 percent. With higher renewable penetration expected in this analysis, the supply curves
were modified so that capital costs increase by 1 percent for every percent increase in capacity above 20
percent for all technologies except wind, for which
the cost increase is 1.5 percent.
¥ Available biomass resources were updated by reestimating potential biomass resources from mill and
agricultural residues, forestry products, and energy
crops.
¥ The project life of geothermal units was reduced
from 30 years to 20 years, the same as other renewable technologies, to reflect shorter cost recovery
periods resulting from competition in the electricity
Energy Information Administration / Effects of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



industry. The time period required to develop additional geothermal projects at an existing site was
reduced by 1 year.

¥In AEO98, capacity additions of hydroelectric power
are limited to announced projects; however, carbon
reduction targets are expected to raise the cost of
fossil-fired technologies, which could attract additional hydroelectric capacity. For this analysis,
regional hydroelectric supply curves based on projects identified by the Idaho National Engineering
and Environmental Laboratory were included.
Oil and Gas

¥ The decline in flow rates for the discounted cash
flow calculation was revised. The decline in flow
rates is now linked to the ratio of reserve additions to
production instead of to the decline in the finding
rates. As a result, the decline in flow rates increases if
reserve additions exceed production.
¥ For AEO98, the annual change in onshore drilling
was limited to 20 percent for 1997 through 2001, and
offshore drilling was not limited. For the revised reference case, the annual increase in onshore drilling is
limited to 30 percent and offshore drilling to 20 percent throughout the forecast, and the minimum drilling limit was removed.
¥ The forecast of Canadian pipeline expansion in
AEO98 was modified to incorporate more recent
information on historical and near-term expansions.
¥ In this analysis, the subsidy for both corn-based and
cellulose-based ethanol is 54 cents per gallon, declining by the inflation rate throughout the forecasts. In
the carbon reduction cases, the carbon fee applied to
end-use product prices replaces the ethanol subsidy
if the carbon fee is greater than the ethanol subsidy
adjusted by inflation. Corn-based ethanol receives
the full carbon fee as a subsidy because corn prices
are carbon penalized through the price of diesel fuel,
used in the production and harvesting of corn.
¥ Refinery efficiency increases linearly throughout the
forecast based on the carbon fee as refineries become
more efficient to reduce the effect of lost product
demand on petroleum product margins. The consumption of steam, natural gas, and electricity
decreases linearly at increasing rates based on the
carbon fee to a maximum of 5.1, 4.3, and 12.0 percent
respectively by 2020.
¥ In the reference case, the capital recovery investment
decision factor for each refinery processing unit is
based on a 15-percent return on investment with a 3year construction and investment decision period
and a 15-year plant life. For the carbon reduction
cases, a 7.5-year plant life is used between 2000 to
2008 to reflect the additional risk from the declining
market demand in that period. For the industrial
migration sensitivity, refinery investment is not
allowed beyond 2000, reflecting the inability of the
U.S. refinery industry to compete with non-Annex I
countries in energy-intensive industries.
Energy Information Administration / Effects of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Appendix B
Results for the Carbon Reduction Cases




Table B1. Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Production
Crude Oil and Lease Condensate ....................... 13.71 12.74 12.72 12.71 12.71 12.70 12.69 12.70
Natural Gas Plant Liquids ............................. 2.46 2.53 2.56 2.56 2.59 2.62 2.62 2.62
Dry Natural Gas ..................................... 19.55 22.03 22.24 22.26 22.53 22.74 22.77 22.72
Coal .............................................. 22.64 25.83 24.73 23.04 21.02 20.07 19.69 18.65
Nuclear Power ...................................... 7.20 6.95 7.29 7.30 7.30 7.45 7.45 7.45
Renewable Energy1 .................................. 6.83 6.99 7.10 7.17 7.18 7.28 7.34 7.44
Other2 ............................................ 1.33 0.58 0.58 0.57 0.52 0.51 0.51 0.51
Total ........................................... 73.73 77.65 77.22 75.61 73.84 73.39 73.09 72.10
Imports
Crude Oil3 ......................................... 16.30 21.51 21.49 21.44 21.33 21.30 21.18 21.13
Petroleum Products4 ................................. 3.98 5.79 5.78 5.49 5.23 5.06 5.06 5.08
Natural Gas ........................................ 2.93 4.87 4.88 4.87 4.93 4.94 5.28 5.32
Other Imports5 ...................................... 0.57 1.04 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.47 0.47 0.47
Total ........................................... 23.78 33.21 32.67 32.33 32.00 31.78 32.00 32.00
Exports
Petroleum6 ......................................... 2.04 1.99 2.02 1.99 1.88 1.86 1.86 1.90
Natural Gas ........................................ 0.16 0.28 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14
Coal .............................................. 2.37 2.64 2.27 2.27 2.27 2.11 2.11 2.11
Total ........................................... 4.57 4.91 4.44 4.41 4.30 4.11 4.11 4.14
Discrepancy7 ........................................ 0.82 -0.13 -0.13 -0.20 0.07 -0.07 -0.16 0.26
Consumption
Petroleum Products8 ................................. 36.01 41.09 41.01 40.71 40.36 40.18 40.06 39.97
Natural Gas ........................................ 22.43 26.51 26.85 26.86 27.18 27.41 27.80 27.74
Coal .............................................. 20.90 23.50 22.75 20.97 19.28 18.32 17.86 17.29
Nuclear Power ..................................... . 7.20 6.95 7.29 7.30 7.30 7.45 7.45 7.45
Renewable Energy1 .................................. 6.84 7.01 7.12 7.18 7.20 7.30 7.36 7.45
Other9 ............................................ 0.39 0.77 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
Total ............................................ 93.77 105.82 105.32 103.32 101.61 100.98 100.82 100.22
Net Imports - Petroleum .............................. 18.25 25.31 25.25 24.94 24.68 24.51 24.39 24.32
Prices (1996 dollars per unit)
World Oil Price (dollars per barrel)10 ...................... 20.48 20.26 20.12 20.04 19.96 19.95 19.91 19.89
Gas Wellhead Price (dollars per Mcf)11 .................... 2.24 2.20 2.18 2.19 2.21 2.24 2.24 2.24
Coal Minemouth Price (dollars per ton) .................... 18.50 15.03 15.39 15.78 16.10 16.13 16.17 16.36
Average Electric Price (cents per kwh) .................... 6.8 6.0 6.1 6.9 7.4 7.7 7.8 7.9

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B1. Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

12.40 12.32 12.19 12.14 12.07 12.03 12.00 10.96 10.59 10.46 10.44 10.24 10.12 10.02
2.82 2.88 2.99 3.11 3.16 3.14 3.11 3.24 3.41 3.50 3.57 3.55 3.48 3.37
24.33 24.79 25.70 26.67 27.09 26.91 26.50 27.66 29.05 29.78 30.27 30.13 29.37 28.52
26.75 21.71 16.90 13.69 9.49 8.44 7.21 28.15 17.30 11.90 9.08 4.86 4.14 3.51
6.17 6.68 6.90 6.98 7.36 7.36 7.41 3.80 5.06 5.63 5.90 6.67 6.86 7.41
7.25 7.42 7.58 7.70 7.96 8.21 8.41 7.56 8.26 9.39 9.73 11.01 11.88 12.89
0.57 0.53 0.57 0.56 0.56 0.70 0.75 0.64 0.63 0.65 0.66 0.81 0.89 0.87
80.29 76.32 72.83 70.85 67.69 66.79 65.39 82.01 74.30 71.32 69.65 67.27 66.73 66.59
22.09 22.08 22.03 21.94 21.13 20.89 20.31 24.73 24.47 24.65 24.67 24.57 24.56 24.13
7.77 7.07 5.86 5.34 4.21 3.74 3.54 9.26 8.14 7.53 7.42 6.47 5.77 4.96
5.12 5.12 5.29 5.49 5.64 5.92 5.94 5.50 5.80 5.97 6.10 6.06 6.37 6.37
1.05 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.34 0.34 0.34 1.08 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.41 0.41 0.41
36.03 34.70 33.61 33.21 31.31 30.89 30.13 40.57 38.87 38.63 38.67 37.51 37.10 35.87
1.75 1.90 1.86 1.87 1.54 1.61 1.68 1.69 1.67 1.65 1.67 1.66 1.66 1.52
0.29 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.32 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14
2.88 2.28 2.28 2.28 1.95 1.95 1.95 3.29 2.37 2.37 2.37 1.92 1.92 1.92
4.93 4.32 4.28 4.29 3.63 3.69 3.77 5.30 4.18 4.16 4.18 3.72 3.72 3.58
-0.21 -0.22 -0.31 -0.20 -0.14 -0.06 -0.08 -0.26 -0.34 -0.18 -0.34 -0.17 -0.17 -0.12
43.82 42.83 41.64 41.12 39.49 38.89 38.06 46.88 45.25 44.87 44.78 43.75 42.94 41.67
28.97 29.57 30.65 31.82 32.38 32.49 32.09 32.65 34.50 35.40 36.02 35.84 35.39 34.54
24.14 19.70 14.81 11.68 7.80 6.72 5.44 25.27 15.28 10.02 7.06 3.34 2.59 1.98
6.17 6.68 6.90 6.98 7.36 7.36 7.41 3.80 5.06 5.63 5.90 6.67 6.86 7.41
7.27 7.44 7.61 7.72 7.98 8.23 8.44 7.59 8.29 9.43 9.77 11.05 11.91 12.92
0.80 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.83 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.24
111.18 106.48 101.86 99.57 95.23 93.93 91.67 117.02 108.64 105.61 103.79 100.90 99.94 98.76
28.11 27.26 26.03 25.41 23.80 23.02 22.17 32.31 30.94 30.53 30.42 29.38 28.66 27.57
20.77 19.99 19.15 18.72 18.11 17.82 17.54 21.69 20.14 19.81 19.73 19.08 18.74 18.38
2.33 2.38 2.62 2.78 3.01 3.01 3.03 2.62 3.02 3.50 3.71 3.74 3.67 3.53
14.29 14.72 15.81 16.42 17.53 17.90 18.29 12.53 14.29 15.51 16.24 18.58 19.63 20.50
5.9 7.1 8.2 8.8 10.0 10.5 11.0 5.6 7.3 7.8 8.1 8.7 8.9 9.3

1Includes grid-connected electricity from conventional hydroelectric; wood and wood waste; landfill gas; municipal solid waste; other biomass; wind; photovoltaic and solar thermal sources;
non-electric energy from renewable sources, such as active and passive solar systems, and wood; and both the ethanol and gasoline components of E85, but not the ethanol components
of blends less than 85 percent. Excludes electricity imports using renewable sources and nonmarketed renewable energy. See Table B18 for selected nonmarketed residential and commercial
renewable energy.

2Includes liquid hydrogen, methanol, supplemental natural gas, and some domestic inputs to refineries.

3Includes imports of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

4Includes imports of finished petroleum products, imports of unfinished oils, alcohols, ethers, and blending components.

5Includes coal, coal coke (net), and electricity (net).

6Includes crude oil and petroleum products.

7Balancing item. Includes unaccounted for supply, losses, gains, and net storage withdrawals.

8Includes natural gas plant liquids, crude oil consumed as a fuel, and nonpetroleum based liquids for blending, such as ethanol.

9Includes net electricity imports, methanol, and liquid hydrogen.

10Average refiner acquisition cost for imported crude oil.

11Represents lower 48 onshore and offshore supplies.

Btu = British thermal unit.

Mcf = Thousand cubic feet.

Kwh = Kilowatthour.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Figures may differ from published data due to internal conversion factors.

Sources: 1996 natural gas values: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(97/06) (Washington, DC, June 1997). 1996 coal minemouth price: Coal
Industry Annual 1996 DOE/EIA-0584(96) (Washington, DC, November 1997). Coal production and exports derived from: EIA, Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(97/08) (Washington,
DC, August 1997). Other 1996 values: EIA, Annual Energy Review 1996, DOE/EIA-0384(96) (Washington, DC, July 1997). Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs
KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sector and Source 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Energy Consumption
Residential
Distillate Fuel ....................................... 0.89 0.77 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.73
Kerosene .......................................... 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .............................. 0.42 0.44 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.42
Petroleum Subtotal ................................. 1.40 1.28 1.28 1.25 1.23 1.23 1.22 1.22
Natural Gas ........................................ 5.39 5.53 5.52 5.35 5.25 5.21 5.19 5.16
Coal .............................................. 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
Renewable Energy1 .................................. 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61
Electricity .......................................... 3.68 4.34 4.32 4.21 4.13 4.10 4.09 4.07
Delivered Energy .................................. 11.13 11.81 11.77 11.47 11.26 11.19 11.16 11.10
Electricity Related Losses ............................. 8.21 9.12 8.98 8.63 8.33 8.25 8.25 8.15
Total ............................................ 19.34 20.92 20.75 20.11 19.59 19.45 19.41 19.25
Commercial
Distillate Fuel ....................................... 0.44 0.39 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.35
Residual Fuel ...................................... 0.15 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
Kerosene .......................................... 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .............................. 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
Motor Gasoline2 ..................................... 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Petroleum Subtotal ................................. 0.71 0.64 0.64 0.62 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.60
Natural Gas ........................................ 3.30 3.63 3.62 3.51 3.42 3.39 3.37 3.34
Coal .............................................. 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08
Renewable Energy3 .................................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Electricity .......................................... 3.37 3.91 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.65 3.65 3.63
Delivered Energy .................................. 7.47 8.28 8.26 8.02 7.82 7.74 7.72 7.66
Electricity Related Losses ............................. 7.52 8.23 8.11 7.78 7.46 7.36 7.37 7.27
Total ............................................ 14.98 16.51 16.37 15.80 15.29 15.10 15.09 14.93
Industrial4
Distillate Fuel ....................................... 1.17 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.32 1.33
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .............................. 2.12 2.28 2.28 2.27 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.24
Petrochemical Feedstock ............................. 1.28 1.39 1.39 1.38 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.35
Residual Fuel ...................................... 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.34
Motor Gasoline2 ..................................... 0.19 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22
Other Petroleum5 .................................... 4.12 4.56 4.55 4.52 4.44 4.41 4.39 4.35
Petroleum Subtotal ................................. 9.23 10.14 10.12 10.06 9.95 9.90 9.87 9.83
Natural Gas6 ....................................... 9.96 10.97 10.97 11.01 11.11 11.13 11.15 11.14
Metallurgical Coal ................................... 0.85 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.74
Steam Coal ........................................ 1.55 1.69 1.67 1.40 1.24 1.19 1.17 1.15
Net Coal Coke Imports ............................... 0.00 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14
Coal Subtotal ...................................... 2.40 2.60 2.58 2.30 2.13 2.08 2.06 2.04
Renewable Energy7 .................................. 1.82 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.09
Electricity .......................................... 3.46 4.05 4.03 3.98 3.92 3.88 3.88 3.85
Delivered Energy .................................. 26.87 29.87 29.82 29.46 29.21 29.09 29.04 28.95
Electricity Related Losses ............................. 7.72 8.52 8.39 8.16 7.91 7.82 7.81 7.71
Total ............................................ 34.59 38.39 38.22 37.61 37.12 36.91 36.86 36.66

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

0.73 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.66 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.56 0.55 0.53
0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05
0.45 0.44 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.42
1.25 1.21 1.17 1.15 1.10 1.08 1.05 1.20 1.13 1.12 1.11 1.07 1.04 1.01
5.71 5.43 5.15 5.00 4.72 4.64 4.51 5.98 5.45 5.22 5.10 4.89 4.81 4.68
0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03
0.61 0.61 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67
4.62 4.42 4.27 4.19 4.05 3.99 3.93 5.30 4.97 4.88 4.82 4.73 4.71 4.65
12.24 11.72 11.25 11.00 10.54 10.36 10.15 13.14 12.22 11.90 11.71 11.38 11.25 11.04
9.30 8.49 7.71 7.27 6.89 6.85 6.72 9.81 8.19 7.60 7.28 7.04 7.11 7.25
21.55 20.20 18.95 18.27 17.43 17.21 16.86 22.95 20.41 19.50 18.99 18.42 18.37 18.29
0.38 0.36 0.34 0.33 0.30 0.28 0.26 0.36 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.30 0.28 0.26
0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.64 0.61 0.59 0.58 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.62 0.58 0.57 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51
3.79 3.59 3.36 3.22 2.92 2.81 2.65 3.93 3.55 3.37 3.27 3.09 2.99 2.84
0.10 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.06
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
4.17 3.96 3.78 3.68 3.48 3.39 3.30 4.53 4.19 4.08 4.02 3.90 3.85 3.77
8.69 8.26 7.82 7.56 7.02 6.80 6.52 9.18 8.41 8.12 7.94 7.61 7.45 7.18
8.39 7.60 6.82 6.38 5.91 5.82 5.64 8.39 6.90 6.35 6.06 5.79 5.81 5.88
17.08 15.86 14.64 13.94 12.93 12.63 12.16 17.57 15.31 14.48 14.00 13.40 13.26 13.06
1.42 1.41 1.42 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.44 1.52 1.52 1.54 1.55 1.57 1.57 1.58
2.44 2.40 2.38 2.38 2.34 2.35 2.37 2.52 2.47 2.47 2.46 2.50 2.50 2.47
1.48 1.45 1.42 1.41 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.52 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.42 1.42 1.41
0.35 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.35 0.33 0.41 0.35 0.37 0.39 0.50 0.49 0.47 0.44
0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
4.79 4.68 4.62 4.61 4.42 4.31 4.22 5.08 5.08 5.20 5.16 5.03 4.96 4.82
10.72 10.53 10.41 10.41 10.14 10.02 10.01 11.25 11.16 11.30 11.37 11.26 11.16 10.97
11.43 11.47 11.52 11.54 11.44 11.43 11.12 11.78 11.65 11.45 11.31 11.29 11.24 11.37
0.70 0.65 0.61 0.61 0.60 0.60 0.59 0.58 0.44 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.38
1.74 1.36 1.14 1.07 0.92 0.87 0.83 1.79 1.36 1.30 1.26 1.09 1.00 0.90
0.20 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.27 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34
2.65 2.22 1.98 1.91 1.73 1.69 1.64 2.64 2.12 2.04 1.99 1.82 1.73 1.62
2.25 2.25 2.24 2.23 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.35 2.39 2.39 2.39 2.39 2.39 2.40
4.30 4.13 3.99 3.95 3.78 3.74 3.67 4.51 4.27 4.19 4.13 4.04 4.01 3.98
31.35 30.60 30.14 30.04 29.29 29.05 28.61 32.53 31.59 31.37 31.19 30.81 30.53 30.34
8.65 7.92 7.21 6.85 6.44 6.43 6.28 8.37 7.05 6.51 6.23 6.01 6.06 6.20
40.00 38.52 37.34 36.89 35.73 35.48 34.88 40.89 38.64 37.88 37.42 36.82 36.60 36.55

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sector and Source 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Transportation
Distillate Fuel8 ...................................... 4.48 5.65 5.64 5.59 5.54 5.52 5.51 5.49
Jet Fuel9 .......................................... 3.27 4.36 4.35 4.33 4.31 4.29 4.27 4.25
Motor Gasoline2 ..................................... 14.94 17.04 17.02 16.93 16.81 16.77 16.72 16.69
Residual Fuel ...................................... 0.90 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.09
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .............................. 0.04 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13
Other Petroleum10 0.29 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32
Petroleum Subtotal ................................. 23.92 28.61 28.57 28.41 28.21 28.12 28.05 27.98
Pipeline Fuel Natural Gas ............................. 0.73 0.80 0.83 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.84 0.83
Compressed Natural Gas ............................. 0.01 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
Renewable Energy (E85)11 ............................ 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
Methanol12 ......................................... 0.01 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
Liquid Hydrogen .................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Electricity .......................................... 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
Delivered Energy .................................. 24.73 29.81 29.81 29.64 29.45 29.35 29.30 29.22
Electricity Related Losses ............................. 0.13 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16
Total ............................................ 24.86 29.99 29.98 29.81 29.61 29.52 29.47 29.39
Delivered Energy Consumption for All
Sectors
Distillate Fuel ....................................... 6.98 8.15 8.13 8.04 7.97 7.94 7.93 7.90
Kerosene .......................................... 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
Jet Fuel9 .......................................... 3.27 4.36 4.35 4.33 4.31 4.29 4.27 4.25
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .............................. 2.66 2.94 2.94 2.91 2.90 2.89 2.88 2.88
Motor Gasoline2 ..................................... 15.16 17.29 17.27 17.18 17.06 17.01 16.97 16.93
Petrochemical Feedstock ............................. 1.28 1.39 1.39 1.38 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.35
Residual Fuel ...................................... 1.39 1.57 1.57 1.56 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55
Other Petroleum13 ................................... 4.37 4.85 4.84 4.81 4.74 4.70 4.68 4.65
Petroleum Subtotal ................................. 35.26 40.67 40.61 40.34 40.01 39.85 39.75 39.63
Natural Gas6 ....................................... 19.39 21.11 21.12 20.87 20.77 20.73 20.72 20.64
Metallurgical Coal ................................... 0.85 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.74
Steam Coal ........................................ 1.68 1.83 1.81 1.53 1.37 1.32 1.30 1.28
Net Coal Coke Imports ............................... 0.00 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14
Coal Subtotal ...................................... 2.53 2.75 2.73 2.43 2.26 2.21 2.19 2.16
Renewable Energy14 ................................. 2.44 2.79 2.79 2.79 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.77
Methanol12 ......................................... 0.01 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
Liquid Hydrogen .................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Electricity .......................................... 10.57 12.38 12.33 12.07 11.83 11.72 11.70 11.63
Delivered Energy .................................. 70.19 79.78 79.66 78.59 77.74 77.38 77.22 76.92
Electricity Related Losses ............................. 23.57 26.04 25.66 24.73 23.87 23.60 23.60 23.29
Total ............................................ 93.77 105.82 105.32 103.32 101.61 100.98 100.82 100.22
Electric Generators15
Distillate Fuel ....................................... 0.07 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
Residual Fuel ...................................... 0.67 0.34 0.35 0.32 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.31
Petroleum Subtotal ................................. 0.75 0.42 0.40 0.37 0.35 0.33 0.31 0.34
Natural Gas ........................................ 3.04 5.40 5.73 5.99 6.41 6.68 7.07 7.10
Steam Coal ........................................ 18.36 20.75 20.02 18.54 17.01 16.11 15.67 15.13
Nuclear Power ...................................... 7.20 6.95 7.29 7.30 7.30 7.45 7.45 7.45
Renewable Energy16 ................................. 4.40 4.22 4.33 4.39 4.42 4.52 4.58 4.68
Electricity Imports17 .................................. 0.39 0.69 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22
Total ............................................ 34.14 38.43 37.99 36.80 35.70 35.32 35.30 34.93

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

6.03 5.91 5.78 5.73 5.57 5.54 5.49 6.38 6.15 5.99 5.93 5.83 5.80 5.77
4.98 4.91 4.75 4.68 4.43 4.32 4.18 5.93 5.78 5.73 5.68 5.54 5.48 5.35
18.03 17.57 16.90 16.55 15.71 15.32 14.71 19.03 18.08 17.75 17.49 16.65 16.22 15.59
1.27 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.57 1.57
0.20 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.23
0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.37
30.86 30.19 29.23 28.75 27.46 26.93 26.11 33.54 32.19 31.65 31.27 30.19 29.67 28.88
0.87 0.90 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.98 1.05 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.08 1.05
0.25 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.29 0.29
0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.16
0.14 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.20
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
32.35 31.70 30.74 30.30 28.98 28.44 27.60 35.37 34.08 33.57 33.19 32.08 31.54 30.69
0.21 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.23 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18
32.55 31.90 30.92 30.47 29.14 28.61 27.76 35.60 34.29 33.76 33.38 32.26 31.71 30.87
8.55 8.38 8.21 8.14 7.92 7.86 7.77 8.91 8.62 8.45 8.39 8.25 8.21 8.14
0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10
4.98 4.91 4.75 4.68 4.43 4.32 4.18 5.93 5.78 5.73 5.68 5.54 5.48 5.35
3.18 3.13 3.09 3.08 3.03 3.02 3.03 3.36 3.28 3.28 3.27 3.28 3.26 3.21
18.30 17.83 17.16 16.81 15.96 15.58 14.97 19.31 18.36 18.03 17.76 16.93 16.49 15.87
1.48 1.45 1.42 1.41 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.52 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.42 1.42 1.41
1.74 1.74 1.73 1.73 1.71 1.70 1.78 2.03 2.05 2.06 2.18 2.17 2.15 2.13
5.11 4.99 4.92 4.91 4.72 4.61 4.50 5.42 5.42 5.53 5.50 5.36 5.29 5.16
43.46 42.54 41.40 40.88 39.24 38.56 37.68 46.60 45.07 44.64 44.32 43.06 42.41 41.37
22.06 21.64 21.17 20.96 20.26 20.04 19.43 23.01 22.02 21.44 21.09 20.67 20.42 20.23
0.70 0.65 0.61 0.61 0.60 0.60 0.59 0.58 0.44 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.38
1.89 1.49 1.26 1.19 1.02 0.97 0.92 1.94 1.48 1.43 1.38 1.21 1.11 1.00
0.20 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.27 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34
2.80 2.36 2.10 2.03 1.84 1.79 1.73 2.79 2.25 2.17 2.11 1.93 1.83 1.72
2.98 2.98 2.98 2.98 2.94 2.93 2.92 3.13 3.20 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.22 3.23
0.14 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.20
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
13.19 12.61 12.15 11.92 11.41 11.21 10.98 14.47 13.55 13.28 13.09 12.80 12.69 12.51
84.63 82.28 79.94 78.90 75.83 74.66 72.87 90.21 86.30 84.96 84.04 81.87 80.77 79.25
26.55 24.20 21.92 20.67 19.41 19.27 18.79 26.80 22.35 20.65 19.76 19.02 19.17 19.51
111.18 106.48 101.86 99.57 95.23 93.93 91.67 117.02 108.64 105.61 103.79 100.90 99.94 98.76
0.07 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.11 0.37 0.61 0.45 0.20
0.29 0.25 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.26 0.28 0.21 0.14 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.10
0.36 0.29 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.33 0.38 0.28 0.18 0.22 0.47 0.69 0.53 0.30
6.91 7.93 9.48 10.86 12.12 12.45 12.66 9.64 12.49 13.96 14.93 15.17 14.97 14.32
21.35 17.34 12.71 9.65 5.95 4.93 3.71 22.48 13.04 7.86 4.95 1.41 0.76 0.25
6.17 6.68 6.90 6.98 7.36 7.36 7.41 3.80 5.06 5.63 5.90 6.67 6.86 7.41
4.30 4.46 4.63 4.74 5.05 5.30 5.52 4.46 5.10 6.22 6.56 7.84 8.69 9.69
0.66 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.61 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
39.74 36.81 34.07 32.58 30.82 30.48 29.78 41.27 35.90 33.93 32.85 31.82 31.86 32.02

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sector and Source 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Total Energy Consumption
Distillate Fuel ....................................... 7.06 8.22 8.17 8.09 8.01 7.98 7.97 7.94
Kerosene .......................................... 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
Jet Fuel9 .......................................... 3.27 4.36 4.35 4.33 4.31 4.29 4.27 4.25
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .............................. 2.66 2.94 2.94 2.91 2.90 2.89 2.88 2.88
Motor Gasoline2 ..................................... 15.16 17.29 17.27 17.18 17.06 17.01 16.97 16.93
Petrochemical Feedstock ............................. 1.28 1.39 1.39 1.38 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.35
Residual Fuel ...................................... 2.07 1.92 1.92 1.89 1.86 1.84 1.82 1.86
Other Petroleum13 ................................... 4.37 4.85 4.84 4.81 4.74 4.70 4.68 4.65
Petroleum Subtotal ................................. 36.01 41.09 41.01 40.71 40.36 40.18 40.06 39.97
Natural Gas ........................................ 22.43 26.51 26.85 26.86 27.18 27.41 27.80 27.74
Metallurgical Coal ................................... 0.85 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.74
Steam Coal ........................................ 20.05 22.58 21.83 20.07 18.38 17.44 16.97 16.41
Net Coal Coke Imports ............................... 0.00 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14
Coal Subtotal ...................................... 20.90 23.50 22.75 20.97 19.28 18.32 17.86 17.29
Nuclear Power ...................................... 7.20 6.95 7.29 7.30 7.30 7.45 7.45 7.45
Renewable Energy18 ................................. 6.84 7.01 7.12 7.18 7.20 7.30 7.36 7.45
Methanol12 ......................................... 0.01 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
Liquid Hydrogen .................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Electricity Imports17 .................................. 0.39 0.69 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22
Total ............................................ 93.77 105.82 105.32 103.32 101.61 100.98 100.82 100.22
Energy Use and Related Statistics
Delivered Energy Use ................................. 70.19 79.78 79.66 78.59 77.74 77.38 77.22 76.92
Total Energy Use .................................... 93.77 105.83 105.34 103.33 101.63 100.99 100.83 100.23
Total Carbon Emissions (million metric tons) ................ 1462.90 1690.92 1674.61 1623.73 1579.45 1555.16 1546.08 1529.60

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

8.62 8.42 8.24 8.17 7.96 7.94 7.87 8.98 8.65 8.56 8.76 8.86 8.66 8.34
0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10
4.98 4.91 4.75 4.68 4.43 4.32 4.18 5.93 5.78 5.73 5.68 5.54 5.48 5.35
3.18 3.13 3.09 3.08 3.03 3.02 3.03 3.36 3.28 3.28 3.27 3.28 3.26 3.21
18.30 17.83 17.16 16.81 15.96 15.58 14.97 19.31 18.36 18.03 17.76 16.93 16.49 15.87
1.48 1.45 1.42 1.41 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.52 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.42 1.42 1.41
2.03 1.99 1.94 1.94 1.92 1.96 2.05 2.24 2.19 2.18 2.27 2.25 2.23 2.23
5.11 4.99 4.92 4.91 4.72 4.61 4.50 5.42 5.42 5.53 5.50 5.36 5.29 5.16
43.82 42.83 41.64 41.12 39.49 38.89 38.06 46.88 45.25 44.87 44.78 43.75 42.94 41.67
28.97 29.57 30.65 31.82 32.38 32.49 32.09 32.65 34.50 35.40 36.02 35.84 35.39 34.54
0.70 0.65 0.61 0.61 0.60 0.60 0.59 0.58 0.44 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.38
23.24 18.83 13.97 10.85 6.98 5.91 4.63 24.42 14.52 9.29 6.33 2.61 1.87 1.26
0.20 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.27 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34
24.14 19.70 14.81 11.68 7.80 6.72 5.44 25.27 15.28 10.02 7.06 3.34 2.59 1.98
6.17 6.68 6.90 6.98 7.36 7.36 7.41 3.80 5.06 5.63 5.90 6.67 6.86 7.41
7.27 7.44 7.61 7.72 7.98 8.23 8.44 7.59 8.29 9.43 9.77 11.05 11.91 12.92
0.14 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.20
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.66 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.61 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
111.18 106.48 101.86 99.57 95.23 93.93 91.67 117.02 108.64 105.61 103.79 100.90 99.94 98.76
84.63 82.28 79.94 78.90 75.83 74.66 72.87 90.21 86.30 84.96 84.04 81.87 80.77 79.25
111.19 106.49 101.87 99.58 95.25 93.94 91.68 117.01 108.64 105.60 103.79 100.89 99.93 98.75
1790.62 1667.93 1535.00 1461.50 1339.98 1299.97 1243.42 1928.74 1668.05 1536.23 1467.78 1346.70 1303.26 1250.80
1Includes wood used for residential heating. See Table B18 estimates of nonmarketed renewable energy consumption for geothermal heat pumps & solar thermal hot water heating.

2Includes ethanol (blends of 10 percent or less) and ethers blended into gasoline.

3Includes commercial sector electricity cogenerated by using wood and wood waste, landfill gas, municipal solid waste, and other biomass. See Table B18 for estimates of nonmarketed
renewable energy consumption for solar thermal hot water heating.

4Fuel consumption includes consumption for cogeneration.

5Includes petroleum coke, asphalt, road oil, lubricants, still gas, and miscellaneous petroleum products.

6Includes lease and plant fuel.

7Includes consumption of energy from hydroelectric, wood & wood waste, municipal solid waste, & other biomass; includes for cogeneration, both sales to the grid & for own use.

8Low sulfur diesel fuel.

9Includes naphtha and kerosene type.

10Includes aviation gas and lubricants.

11E85 is 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline(nonrenewable).

12Only M85 (85 percent methanol and 15 percent motor gasoline).

13Includes unfinished oils, natural gasoline, motor gasoline blending compounds, aviation gasoline, lubricants, still gas, asphalt, road oil, petroleum coke, and miscellaneous petroleum
products.

14Includes electricity generated for sale to the grid and for own use from renewable sources, and non-electric energy from renewable sources. Excludes nonmarketed renewable energy
consumption for geothermal heat pumps and solar thermal hot water heaters.

15Includes consumption of energy by all electric power generators for grid-connected power except cogenerators, which produce electricity and other useful thermal energy.

16Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood and wood waste, municipal solid waste, other biomass, E85, wind, photovoltaic and solar thermal sources. Excludes cogeneration.
Excludes net electricity imports.

17In 1996 approximately two-thirds of the U.S. electricity imports were provided by renewable sources (hydroelectricity); EIA does not project future proportions.

18Includes hydroelectric, geothermal, wood and wood waste, municipal solid waste, other biomass, wind, photovoltaic and solar thermal sources. Includes ethanol components of E85;
excludes ethanol blends (10 percent or less) in motor gasoline. Excludes net electricity imports and nonmarketed renewable energy consumption for geothermal heat pumps and solar thermal
hot water heaters.

Btu = British thermal unit.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Figures for 1996 may differ from published data due to internal conversion factors. Consumption values of

0.00 are values that round to 0.00, because they are less than 0.005.
Sources: 1996 natural gas lease, plant, and pipeline fuel values: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 1997. Online. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo
/pub/upd/aug97/index.html (August 21, 1997). 1996 electric utility fuel consumption: EIA, Electric Power Annual 1996, Volume I, DOE/EIA-0348(96)/1 (Washington, DC, August 1997). 1996
nonutility consumption estimates: EIA Form 867, "Annual Nonutility Power Producer Report." Other 1996 values: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook August 1997. Online.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/upd/aug97/index.html (August 21, 1997). Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A , FD24ABV.D080398B,
FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B3. Energy Prices by Sector and Source

(1996 Dollars per Million Btu)

Sector and Source
1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Residential ......................................... 12.86 12.18 12.37 13.85 14.92 15.40 15.54 15.84
Primary Energy1 .................................... 6.63 6.26 6.33 7.04 7.52 7.72 7.84 7.99
Petroleum Products2 ................................ 8.51 9.18 9.28 10.04 10.51 10.70 10.85 11.01
Distillate Fuel ..................................... 7.09 7.59 7.68 8.48 9.00 9.20 9.35 9.52
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ............................ 11.59 12.11 12.23 12.87 13.22 13.39 13.52 13.66
Natural Gas ....................................... 6.19 5.63 5.69 6.37 6.85 7.05 7.16 7.31
Electricity .......................................... 24.42 21.55 21.95 24.60 26.62 27.54 27.70 28.21
Commercial ........................................ 12.84 11.62 11.84 13.49 14.68 15.21 15.38 15.72
Primary Energy1 .................................... 5.26 4.81 4.88 5.58 6.07 6.27 6.39 6.54
Petroleum Products2 ................................ 5.56 5.76 5.86 6.68 7.19 7.38 7.54 7.71
Distillate Fuel ..................................... 5.27 5.37 5.46 6.27 6.79 6.98 7.14 7.31
Residual Fuel .................................... 3.24 3.07 3.20 4.13 4.67 4.89 5.06 5.24
Natural Gas3 ...................................... 5.28 4.73 4.79 5.46 5.93 6.13 6.24 6.39
Electricity .......................................... 22.05 19.21 19.62 22.29 24.28 25.19 25.37 25.89
Industrial4 .......................................... 5.35 4.96 5.07 5.86 6.37 6.59 6.70 6.85
Primary Energy ..................................... 3.99 3.75 3.83 4.48 4.88 5.04 5.15 5.28
Petroleum Products2 ................................ 5.58 5.21 5.28 5.78 6.09 6.21 6.31 6.41
Distillate Fuel ..................................... 5.50 5.43 5.53 6.35 6.87 7.05 7.22 7.38
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ............................ 7.80 6.70 6.83 7.45 7.80 7.97 8.10 8.24
Residual Fuel .................................... 2.99 2.75 2.84 3.77 4.34 4.55 4.72 4.90
Natural Gas5 ...................................... 2.96 2.80 2.88 3.51 3.93 4.12 4.22 4.36
Metallurgical Coal .................................. 1.77 1.63 1.76 2.88 3.60 3.86 4.06 4.28
Steam Coal ....................................... 1.46 1.30 1.42 2.56 3.27 3.54 3.74 3.96
Electricity .......................................... 13.37 11.57 11.83 13.41 14.61 15.14 15.25 15.56
Transportation ...................................... 8.77 8.62 8.78 9.53 10.03 10.22 10.37 10.53
Primary Energy ..................................... 8.76 8.61 8.77 9.52 10.02 10.21 10.36 10.52
Petroleum Products2 ................................ 8.76 8.61 8.76 9.52 10.02 10.21 10.37 10.52
Distillate Fuel6 .................................... 8.90 8.47 8.62 9.41 9.89 10.07 10.23 10.39
Jet Fuel7 ........................................ 5.52 5.37 5.51 6.30 6.79 6.97 7.11 7.26
Motor Gasoline8 ................................... 9.89 9.92 10.10 10.83 11.35 11.55 11.69 11.85
Residual Fuel .................................... 2.55 2.70 2.80 3.72 4.30 4.50 4.68 4.84
Liquid Petroleum Gas9 ............................. 12.63 12.99 13.10 13.74 14.07 14.24 14.37 14.50
Natural Gas10 ...................................... 5.42 5.82 5.88 6.52 6.98 7.17 7.27 7.41
E8511 ............................................ 15.85 16.35 16.38 16.60 16.69 16.73 16.75 16.78
M8512 ............................................ 12.24 12.54 12.60 13.32 13.78 13.96 14.09 14.23
Electricity .......................................... 15.33 13.44 13.56 13.69 13.93 14.09 14.07 14.06
Average End-Use Energy ............................. 8.65 8.21 8.36 9.32 9.97 10.24 10.38 10.56
Primary Energy ..................................... 8.32 7.92 8.07 8.97 9.57 9.82 9.96 10.13
Electricity .......................................... 20.00 17.49 17.85 20.11 21.82 22.60 22.76 23.20
Electric Generators13
Fossil Fuel Average ................................. 1.54 1.50 1.62 2.66 3.32 3.59 3.77 3.97
Petroleum Products ................................. 3.25 3.44 3.38 4.33 4.91 5.15 5.33 5.47
Distillate Fuel ..................................... 4.91 4.97 5.10 5.93 6.45 6.65 6.81 6.98
Residual Fuel .................................... 3.07 3.10 3.15 4.11 4.71 4.95 5.12 5.29
Natural Gas ....................................... 2.64 2.62 2.69 3.32 3.74 3.99 4.07 4.24
Steam Coal ....................................... 1.29 1.17 1.28 2.42 3.13 3.39 3.60 3.81

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B3. Energy Prices by Sector and Source (Continued)

(1996 Dollars per Million Btu)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

12.24 14.61 16.79 18.11 20.87 21.94 23.29 12.32 16.06 17.31 18.14 19.68 20.34 21.52
6.24 7.32 8.50 9.18 10.79 11.39 12.27 6.42 8.32 9.12 9.61 10.56 11.06 11.91
9.54 10.54 11.47 11.94 13.39 14.07 15.03 9.72 11.19 11.51 11.83 12.79 13.43 14.51
7.78 8.86 9.93 10.47 12.10 12.83 13.85 7.82 9.44 9.87 10.21 11.24 11.90 13.06
12.50 13.29 13.91 14.27 15.34 15.93 16.79 12.49 13.61 13.73 13.99 14.83 15.42 16.39
5.56 6.64 7.86 8.58 10.20 10.78 11.65 5.80 7.76 8.64 9.16 10.10 10.57 11.37
21.36 25.63 29.11 31.29 35.46 37.17 38.98 20.37 26.37 28.01 29.20 31.23 31.94 33.34
11.51 14.16 16.57 17.99 21.05 22.31 23.82 11.10 15.07 16.30 17.16 18.76 19.45 20.69
4.74 5.82 7.02 7.71 9.36 9.99 10.91 4.70 6.60 7.39 7.88 8.86 9.39 10.28
5.99 7.07 8.11 8.64 10.22 10.95 11.98 6.12 7.70 8.07 8.40 9.43 10.12 11.30
5.57 6.65 7.72 8.26 9.87 10.60 11.62 5.66 7.24 7.64 7.98 9.02 9.68 10.85
3.18 4.43 5.62 6.26 8.10 8.90 10.02 3.38 5.23 5.69 6.06 7.21 8.01 9.33
4.61 5.67 6.88 7.60 9.24 9.83 10.72 4.57 6.49 7.35 7.87 8.82 9.30 10.12
18.87 23.21 26.77 28.85 32.94 34.71 36.43 17.67 23.61 25.09 26.21 28.18 28.85 30.13
5.12 6.26 7.32 7.92 9.35 9.95 10.79 5.15 6.92 7.44 7.83 8.69 9.17 9.93
3.96 4.86 5.75 6.26 7.55 8.09 8.90 4.16 5.62 6.09 6.44 7.25 7.73 8.52
5.46 6.05 6.60 6.87 7.79 8.25 8.95 5.58 6.41 6.55 6.75 7.39 7.80 8.49
5.68 6.76 7.83 8.35 9.93 10.66 11.70 5.86 7.40 7.76 8.10 9.14 9.80 10.97
7.01 7.79 8.41 8.76 9.85 10.44 11.37 6.99 8.12 8.18 8.47 9.36 9.95 10.87
2.94 4.17 5.35 5.96 7.73 8.56 9.65 3.16 4.97 5.39 5.74 6.85 7.63 8.91
2.98 3.96 5.06 5.74 7.26 7.81 8.65 3.25 5.06 5.86 6.35 7.24 7.71 8.50
1.58 3.28 4.85 5.69 7.98 8.98 10.36 1.51 4.00 4.60 5.05 6.55 7.56 9.19
1.26 2.96 4.53 5.37 7.65 8.65 10.03 1.18 3.67 4.27 4.72 6.19 7.20 8.83
11.28 13.86 15.96 17.12 19.50 20.51 21.51 10.31 13.83 14.74 15.38 16.52 17.00 17.67
8.75 9.84 10.77 11.22 12.60 13.24 14.19 8.59 10.05 10.36 10.67 11.56 12.17 13.22
8.74 9.83 10.76 11.21 12.59 13.24 14.18 8.57 10.04 10.35 10.66 11.55 12.17 13.22
8.73 9.82 10.75 11.20 12.58 13.23 14.18 8.55 10.02 10.32 10.63 11.52 12.14 13.20
8.49 9.58 10.67 11.18 12.66 13.37 14.39 8.22 9.75 10.10 10.42 11.50 12.18 13.34
5.62 6.69 7.65 8.15 9.61 10.24 11.20 5.76 7.32 7.70 8.01 9.04 9.66 10.73
10.12 11.25 12.14 12.55 13.87 14.50 15.44 10.01 11.46 11.74 12.05 12.88 13.49 14.53
2.90 4.16 5.34 5.96 7.72 8.54 9.66 3.08 4.92 5.36 5.70 6.85 7.63 8.96
13.18 13.95 14.55 14.89 15.93 16.52 17.36 12.76 13.88 14.02 14.27 15.09 15.66 16.61
6.53 7.60 8.74 9.39 10.93 11.49 12.32 7.17 8.95 9.67 10.15 10.99 11.44 12.20
16.73 16.79 16.38 16.39 18.13 18.83 19.61 16.58 16.20 16.27 16.54 17.43 17.92 19.09
12.63 13.54 14.31 14.71 16.01 16.60 17.21 12.69 13.86 14.14 14.42 15.18 15.76 16.74
13.27 13.78 14.08 14.74 15.45 15.80 15.91 12.39 12.77 12.90 13.15 13.38 13.15 13.27
8.31 9.76 11.04 11.73 13.45 14.18 15.17 8.27 10.39 10.98 11.43 12.45 13.02 13.98
8.04 9.38 10.54 11.16 12.75 13.44 14.38 7.98 9.90 10.40 10.80 11.75 12.31 13.24
17.22 20.92 23.94 25.70 29.23 30.68 32.19 16.31 21.44 22.79 23.77 25.49 26.10 27.21
1.55 3.14 4.65 5.49 7.38 8.04 8.96 1.68 4.22 5.20 5.90 7.17 7.70 8.52
3.67 4.87 6.09 6.71 8.52 9.34 10.48 4.03 5.94 6.71 7.36 8.50 9.16 10.28
5.21 6.35 7.47 8.03 9.55 10.14 11.14 5.36 6.99 7.21 7.52 8.55 9.21 10.38
3.29 4.63 5.88 6.52 8.35 9.11 10.24 3.56 5.67 6.24 6.72 8.06 8.84 10.06
2.82 3.81 4.99 5.70 7.28 7.80 8.63 3.20 4.97 5.81 6.31 7.21 7.68 8.48
1.11 2.81 4.37 5.23 7.53 8.55 9.95 1.00 3.48 4.07 4.52 6.04 7.10 8.80

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B3. Energy Prices by Sector and Source (Continued)

(1996 Dollars per Million Btu)

Sector and Source
1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Average Price to All Users14
Petroleum Products2 ................................. 7.83 7.76 7.90 8.60 9.06 9.23 9.37 9.51
Distillate Fuel ...................................... 7.84 7.71 7.86 8.66 9.15 9.33 9.49 9.66
Jet Fuel .......................................... 5.52 5.37 5.51 6.30 6.79 6.97 7.11 7.26
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ............................. 8.53 7.89 8.01 8.64 8.98 9.16 9.28 9.42
Motor Gasoline8 .................................... 9.89 9.91 10.08 10.82 11.33 11.53 11.68 11.83
Residual Fuel ..................................... 2.84 2.81 2.89 3.82 4.39 4.61 4.78 4.95
Natural Gas ....................................... 4.14 3.72 3.77 4.39 4.79 4.99 5.07 5.21
Coal .............................................. 1.32 1.18 1.30 2.43 3.14 3.40 3.61 3.82
E8511 ............................................. 15.85 16.35 16.38 16.60 16.69 16.73 16.75 16.78
M8512 ............................................. 12.24 12.54 12.60 13.32 13.78 13.96 14.09 14.23
Electricity .......................................... 20.00 17.49 17.85 20.11 21.82 22.60 22.76 23.20
Non-Renewable Energy Expenditures
by Sector (billion 1996 dollars)
Residential ........................................... 135.23 136.41 138.12 150.47 158.96 162.96 163.94 166.15
Commercial .......................................... 95.84 96.20 97.75 108.14 114.83 117.71 118.67 120.32
Industrial ............................................ 111.91 112.58 114.87 131.62 142.18 146.51 148.83 151.70
Transportation ........................................ 210.43 248.75 253.09 273.77 286.57 291.12 294.81 298.41
Total Non-Renewable Expenditures ................... 553.41 593.94 603.84 664.00 702.54 718.30 726.25 736.59
Transportation Renewable Expenditures ................... 0.08 1.13 1.13 1.17 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.22
Total Expenditures .................................. 553.49 595.07 604.97 665.17 703.74 719.51 727.46 737.81

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B3. Energy Prices by Sector and Source (Continued)

(1996 Dollars per Million Btu)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

7.94 8.91 9.74 10.14 11.39 11.98 12.83 7.88 9.18 9.43 9.69 10.49 11.06 12.02
7.81 8.91 9.99 10.50 12.01 12.71 13.72 7.67 9.21 9.54 9.79 10.78 11.49 12.73
5.62 6.69 7.65 8.15 9.61 10.24 11.20 5.76 7.32 7.70 8.01 9.04 9.66 10.73
8.29 9.05 9.67 10.00 11.07 11.64 12.52 8.32 9.44 9.52 9.80 10.62 11.19 12.11
10.11 11.23 12.12 12.53 13.86 14.49 15.43 10.00 11.45 11.73 12.04 12.86 13.48 14.51
2.98 4.24 5.42 6.04 7.81 8.64 9.76 3.15 4.99 5.43 5.77 6.91 7.70 9.02
3.76 4.71 5.80 6.45 7.96 8.49 9.31 3.96 5.69 6.48 6.95 7.84 8.30 9.09
1.12 2.82 4.39 5.24 7.56 8.57 9.97 1.01 3.50 4.10 4.57 6.12 7.18 8.84
16.73 16.79 16.38 16.39 18.13 18.83 19.61 16.58 16.20 16.27 16.54 17.43 17.92 19.09
12.63 13.54 14.31 14.71 16.01 16.60 17.21 12.69 13.86 14.14 14.42 15.18 15.76 16.74
17.22 20.92 23.94 25.70 29.23 30.68 32.19 16.31 21.44 22.79 23.77 25.49 26.10 27.21
142.47 162.27 178.46 187.98 206.89 213.60 221.60 154.21 186.09 194.97 200.87 211.16 215.46 223.12
100.04 116.91 129.55 136.02 147.66 151.70 155.24 101.88 126.71 132.32 136.19 142.68 144.77 148.56
121.43 145.88 168.16 181.59 209.59 222.20 238.74 125.47 164.58 176.32 184.55 203.62 214.30 231.62
273.12 301.43 320.24 328.53 353.51 364.91 379.60 292.00 329.71 334.53 340.63 357.11 370.26 392.18
637.05 726.49 796.40 834.12 917.65 952.41 995.18 673.57 807.09 838.14 862.23 914.57 944.78 995.49
1.97 2.01 2.04 2.07 2.12 2.15 2.18 2.81 2.86 2.91 2.93 2.92 2.94 3.02
639.03 728.51 798.44 836.18 919.77 954.56 997.35 676.38 809.95 841.05 865.16 917.49 947.72 998.51

1Weighted average price includes fuels below as well as coal.

2 This quantity is the weighted average for all petroleum products, not just those listed below.

3Excludes independent power producers.

4Includes cogenerators.

5Excludes uses for lease and plant fuel.

6 Low sulfur diesel fuel. Price includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.

7Kerosene-type jet fuel. Price includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.

8Sales weighted-average price for all grades. Includes Federal and State taxes and excludes county and local taxes.

9Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.

10Compressed natural gas used as a vehicle fuel. Price includes estimated motor vehicle fuel taxes.

11E85 is 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable).

12Only M85 (85 percent methanol and 15 percent motor gasoline).

13Includes all electric power generators except cogenerators, which produce electricity and other useful thermal energy.

14Weighted averages of end-use fuel prices are derived from the prices shown in each sector and the corresponding sectoral consumption.

Btu = British thermal unit.

Note: 1996 figures may differ from published data due to internal rounding.

Sources: 1996 prices for gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel are based on prices in various issues of Energy Information Administration (EIA), Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA0380(96/13-97/4) (Washington, DC, 1996-97). 1996 prices for all other petroleum products are derived from the EIA, State Energy Price and Expenditure Report 1994, DOE/EIA-0376(94)
(Washington, DC, June 1997). 1996 industrial gas delivered prices are based on EIA, Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey 1991. 1996 residential and commercial natural gas delivered
prices: EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(97/6) (Washington, DC, June 1997). Other 1996 natural gas delivered prices: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs
KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B. Values for 1996 coal prices have
been estimated from EIA, State Energy Price and Expenditure Report 1994, DOE/EIA-0376(94) (Washington, DC, June 1997) by use of consumption quantities aggregated from EIA, State
Energy Data Report 1994. Online. ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/ pub/state.data/021494.pdf (August 26, 1997) and the Coal Industry Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0584(96) (Washington, DC, November
1997). 1996 electricity prices for commercial, industrial, and transportation: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B,
FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B. Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A,
FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B4. Residential Sector Key Indicators and End-Use Consumption

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Key Indicators and Consumption 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Key Indicators
Households (millions)
Single-Family ...................................... 69.61 77.46 77.46 77.43 77.40 77.38 77.38 77.37
Multifamily ......................................... 24.76 26.54 26.54 26.52 26.50 26.49 26.49 26.48
Mobile Homes ...................................... 6.00 7.08 7.08 7.08 7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07
Total ............................................ 100.37 111.08 111.08 111.02 110.97 110.95 110.94 110.92
Average House Square Footage ...................... 1649 1691 1691 1691 1691 1691 1691 1691
Energy Intensity
(million Btu consumed per household)
Delivered Energy Consumption ......................... 110.92 106.30 105.97 103.34 101.50 100.88 100.59 100.05
Electricity Related Losses ............................. 81.78 82.08 80.85 77.75 75.07 74.40 74.35 73.50
Total Energy Consumption ............................. 192.70 188.37 186.82 181.09 176.57 175.28 174.93 173.55
Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel
Electricity
Space Heating ...................................... 0.47 0.48 0.48 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.44
Space Cooling ...................................... 0.46 0.51 0.51 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.47
Water Heating ...................................... 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Refrigeration ....................................... 0.41 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31
Cooking ........................................... 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14
Clothes Dryers ...................................... 0.19 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20
Freezers .......................................... 0.13 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
Lighting ........................................... 0.32 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34
Clothes Washers1 ................................... 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Dishwashers1 ....................................... 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
Color Televisions .................................... 0.21 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27
Personal Computers ................................. 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Furnace Fans ...................................... 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Other Uses2 ........................................ 0.79 1.35 1.34 1.30 1.27 1.26 1.26 1.25
Delivered Energy .................................. 3.68 4.34 4.32 4.21 4.13 4.10 4.09 4.07
Natural Gas
Space Heating ...................................... 3.77 3.86 3.85 3.73 3.65 3.62 3.61 3.58
Space Cooling ...................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Water Heating ...................................... 1.31 1.35 1.35 1.31 1.28 1.27 1.27 1.26
Cooking ........................................... 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
Clothes Dryers ...................................... 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
Other Uses3 ........................................ 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
Delivered Energy .................................. 5.39 5.53 5.52 5.35 5.25 5.21 5.19 5.16
Distillate
Space Heating ...................................... 0.80 0.68 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.64 0.64
Water Heating ...................................... 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
Other Uses4 ........................................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Delivered Energy .................................. 0.89 0.77 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.73
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
Space Heating ...................................... 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.30
Water Heating ...................................... 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
Cooking ........................................... 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Other Uses3 ........................................ 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Delivered Energy .................................. 0.42 0.44 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.42
Marketed Renewables (wood)5 .......................... 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61
Other Fuels6 ........................................ 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B4. Residential Sector Key Indicators and End-Use Consumption (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Projections Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

81.55 81.48 81.37 81.34 81.19 81.14 81.08 89.52 89.50 89.53 89.50 89.41 89.59 89.61
27.92 27.85 27.71 27.68 27.52 27.47 27.42 30.84 30.76 30.75 30.71 30.56 30.70 30.70
7.58 7.57 7.56 7.56 7.55 7.54 7.54 8.35 8.37 8.39 8.40 8.41 8.45 8.47
117.04 116.90 116.64 116.58 116.26 116.15 116.04 128.71 128.62 128.68 128.60 128.38 128.74 128.78
1707 1707 1707 1707 1708 1708 1708 1732 1732 1732 1732 1733 1732 1732
104.60 100.24 96.41 94.35 90.64 89.21 87.44 102.07 94.99 92.50 91.07 88.64 87.41 85.69
79.49 72.59 66.09 62.35 59.29 58.97 57.88 76.23 63.67 59.04 56.62 54.82 55.26 56.32
184.09 172.83 162.50 156.70 149.94 148.18 145.32 178.30 158.66 151.53 147.68 143.47 142.67 142.01
0.48 0.46 0.43 0.42 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.51 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.44 0.43
0.53 0.50 0.47 0.46 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.57 0.52 0.50 0.49 0.47 0.47 0.46
0.38 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.41 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.35 0.34
0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27
0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
0.23 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23
0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
0.40 0.38 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.45 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.39
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
0.30 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.33 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.30
0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12
1.55 1.48 1.43 1.41 1.36 1.34 1.32 1.96 1.84 1.81 1.79 1.76 1.75 1.73
4.62 4.42 4.27 4.19 4.05 3.99 3.93 5.30 4.97 4.88 4.82 4.73 4.71 4.65
3.97 3.76 3.55 3.44 3.22 3.15 3.05 4.13 3.74 3.57 3.47 3.31 3.25 3.15
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
1.40 1.34 1.28 1.24 1.18 1.17 1.14 1.48 1.35 1.29 1.27 1.22 1.21 1.18
0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19
0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05
0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
5.71 5.43 5.15 5.00 4.72 4.64 4.51 5.98 5.45 5.22 5.10 4.89 4.81 4.68
0.64 0.61 0.58 0.57 0.54 0.52 0.51 0.57 0.53 0.51 0.51 0.48 0.47 0.45
0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.73 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.66 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.56 0.55 0.53
0.32 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.33 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.30 0.29
0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08
0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.45 0.44 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.42
0.61 0.61 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67
0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B4. Residential Sector Key Indicators and End-Use Consumption (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Key Indicators and Consumption 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Delivered Energy Consumption by
End-Use
Space Heating...................................... 6.10 6.06 6.05 5.89 5.78 5.75 5.73 5.69
Space Cooling...................................... 0.47 0.51 0.51 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.47
Water Heating ...................................... 1.84 1.89 1.89 1.83 1.80 1.79 1.78 1.77
Refrigeration ....................................... 0.41 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31
Cooking ........................................... 0.33 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Clothes Dryers...................................... 0.24 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Freezers .......................................... 0.13 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
Lighting ........................................... 0.32 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34
Clothes Washers.................................... 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Dishwashers ....................................... 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
Color Televisions.................................... 0.21 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27
Personal Computers ................................. 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Furnace Fans ...................................... 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Other Uses7 ........................................ 0.90 1.45 1.45 1.41 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.36
Delivered Energy .................................. 11.13 11.81 11.77 11.47 11.26 11.19 11.16 11.10
Electricity Related Losses ............................ 8.21 9.12 8.98 8.63 8.33 8.25 8.25 8.15
Total Energy Consumption by End-Use .................
Space Heating...................................... 7.15 7.07 7.03 6.83 6.69 6.65 6.62 6.58
Space Cooling...................................... 1.50 1.58 1.56 1.49 1.44 1.43 1.42 1.41
Water Heating ...................................... 2.66 2.68 2.66 2.58 2.51 2.49 2.49 2.47
Refrigeration ....................................... 1.32 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94
Cooking ........................................... 0.62 0.65 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63
Clothes Dryers...................................... 0.68 0.71 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.65
Freezers .......................................... 0.42 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26
Lighting ........................................... 1.05 1.15 1.13 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.03
Clothes Washers.................................... 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
Dishwashers ....................................... 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14
Color Televisions.................................... 0.68 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.84 0.83 0.83 0.82
Personal Computers ................................. 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
Furnace Fans ...................................... 0.29 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
Other Uses7 ........................................ 2.67 4.28 4.23 4.08 3.95 3.91 3.90 3.86
Total ............................................ 19.34 20.92 20.75 20.11 19.59 19.45 19.41 19.25
Non-Marketed Renewables
Geothermal8 ....................................... 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Solar9 ............................................. 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Total ............................................ 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B4. Residential Sector Key Indicators and End-Use Consumption (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Projections Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

6.14 5.86 5.59 5.45 5.18 5.09 4.96 6.28 5.78 5.60 5.49 5.29 5.21 5.08
0.54 0.50 0.48 0.46 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.58 0.53 0.51 0.50 0.48 0.48 0.47
1.96 1.87 1.79 1.75 1.67 1.64 1.61 2.06 1.90 1.84 1.81 1.75 1.72 1.68
0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27
0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40
0.28 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.32 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28
0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
0.40 0.38 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.45 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.39
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
0.30 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.33 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.30
0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12
1.67 1.59 1.54 1.51 1.46 1.44 1.42 2.09 1.96 1.93 1.91 1.87 1.87 1.84
12.24 11.72 11.25 11.00 10.54 10.36 10.15 13.14 12.22 11.90 11.71 11.38 11.25 11.04
9.30 8.49 7.71 7.27 6.89 6.85 6.72 9.81 8.19 7.60 7.28 7.04 7.11 7.25
7.11 6.74 6.37 6.18 5.87 5.77 5.63 7.23 6.55 6.31 6.17 5.95 5.87 5.75
1.60 1.46 1.33 1.26 1.18 1.16 1.14 1.63 1.38 1.29 1.24 1.18 1.18 1.18
2.72 2.56 2.42 2.34 2.22 2.19 2.14 2.82 2.53 2.42 2.36 2.28 2.25 2.22
0.86 0.83 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.70
0.67 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.66
0.74 0.68 0.64 0.61 0.58 0.58 0.57 0.80 0.70 0.66 0.64 0.63 0.63 0.63
0.23 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18
1.20 1.10 1.02 0.97 0.91 0.88 0.85 1.28 1.11 1.05 1.02 0.99 0.99 0.99
0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.14 0.14
0.91 0.84 0.78 0.75 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.96 0.83 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.75 0.76
0.12 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13
0.36 0.33 0.31 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.40 0.35 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.31
4.79 4.44 4.12 3.95 3.78 3.74 3.69 5.72 4.99 4.74 4.61 4.49 4.52 4.55
21.55 20.20 18.95 18.27 17.43 17.21 16.86 22.95 20.41 19.50 18.99 18.42 18.37 18.29
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06

1Does not include water heating of load.
2Includes small electric devices, heating elements and motors.
3Includes such appliances as swimming pool heaters, outdoor grills, and outdoor lighting (natural gas).
4Includes such appliances as swimming pool and hot tub heaters.
5Includes wood used for primary and secondary heating in wood stoves or fireplaces as reported in the Residential Energy Consumption Survey 1993.
6Includes kerosene and coal.
7Includes all other uses listed above.
8Includes primary energy displaced by geothermal heat pumps in space heating and cooling applications.
9Includes primary energy displaced by solar thermal water heaters.
Btu = British thermal unit.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Sources: 1996: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 1997. Online. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/upd/aug97/index.html (August 21,

1997). Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B,

FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B5. Commercial Sector Key Indicators and End-Use Consumption

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Key Indicators and Consumption 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Key Indicators
Total Floor Space (billion square feet)
Surviving .......................................... 69.2 77.3 77.3 77.3 77.3 77.3 77.3 77.3
New Additions ...................................... 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Total ............................................ 70.9 79.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 79.0
Energy Consumption Intensity
(thousand Btu per square foot)
Delivered Energy Consumption ......................... 105.3 104.8 104.5 101.5 99.0 98.0 97.7 96.9
Electricity Related Losses ............................. 106.0 104.2 102.6 98.4 94.5 93.2 93.3 92.0
Total Energy Consumption ............................ 211.2 209.0 207.2 199.9 193.5 191.2 191.0 188.9
Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel
Electricity
Space Heating ...................................... 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Space Cooling ...................................... 0.51 0.54 0.54 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.50
Water Heating ...................................... 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16
Ventilation ......................................... 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
Cooking ........................................... 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Lighting ........................................... 1.16 1.25 1.24 1.21 1.17 1.16 1.16 1.15
Refrigeration ....................................... 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
Office Equipment (PC) ............................... 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
Office Equipment (non-PC) ............................ 0.20 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.23
Other Uses1 ........................................ 0.80 1.15 1.14 1.12 1.09 1.07 1.08 1.07
Delivered Energy .................................. 3.37 3.91 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.65 3.65 3.63
Natural Gas2
Space Heating ...................................... 1.34 1.38 1.37 1.33 1.29 1.28 1.28 1.26
Space Cooling ...................................... 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Water Heating ...................................... 0.46 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.45
Cooking ........................................... 0.18 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.19
Other Uses3 ........................................ 1.29 1.52 1.52 1.47 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.40
Delivered Energy .................................. 3.30 3.63 3.62 3.51 3.42 3.39 3.37 3.34
Distillate
Space Heating ...................................... 0.20 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15
Water Heating ...................................... 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04
Other Uses4 ........................................ 0.19 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16
Delivered Energy .................................. 0.44 0.39 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.35
Other Fuels5 ........................................ 0.36 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33
Marketed Renewable Fuels
Biomass ........................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Delivered Energy .................................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use
Space Heating ...................................... 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.60 1.55 1.54 1.53 1.52
Space Cooling ...................................... 0.53 0.57 0.57 0.55 0.54 0.53 0.53 0.53
Water Heating ...................................... 0.68 0.72 0.72 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.66
Ventilation ......................................... 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
Cooking ........................................... 0.21 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22
Lighting ........................................... 1.16 1.25 1.24 1.21 1.17 1.16 1.16 1.15
Refrigeration ....................................... 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
Office Equipment (PC) ............................... 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
Office Equipment (non-PC) ............................ 0.20 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.23
Other Uses6 ........................................ 2.64 3.18 3.18 3.09 3.02 2.99 2.98 2.96
Delivered Energy .................................. 7.47 8.28 8.26 8.02 7.82 7.74 7.72 7.66

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B5. Commercial Sector Key Indicators and End-Use Consumption (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

81.1 81.1 81.0 80.9 80.8 80.7 80.7 85.7 85.5 85.5 85.5 85.4 85.4 85.3
1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
82.8 82.7 82.6 82.6 82.4 82.4 82.3 86.8 86.7 86.6 86.6 86.5 86.5 86.4
105.0 99.8 94.6 91.6 85.2 82.6 79.2 105.8 97.0 93.8 91.7 88.0 86.1 83.1
101.3 91.8 82.6 77.2 71.7 70.7 68.6 96.7 79.6 73.4 70.0 67.0 67.2 68.0
206.2 191.6 177.2 168.9 156.9 153.3 147.8 202.4 176.7 167.1 161.7 154.9 153.4 151.1
0.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08
0.54 0.51 0.49 0.48 0.45 0.44 0.43 0.54 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.45
0.17 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13
0.19 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
1.28 1.20 1.12 1.08 1.01 0.97 0.94 1.31 1.16 1.12 1.09 1.04 1.02 0.98
0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16
0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09
0.28 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.34 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.30
1.33 1.27 1.22 1.19 1.13 1.11 1.08 1.59 1.50 1.47 1.45 1.42 1.41 1.39
4.17 3.96 3.78 3.68 3.48 3.39 3.30 4.53 4.19 4.08 4.02 3.90 3.85 3.77
1.42 1.34 1.25 1.20 1.08 1.04 0.97 1.43 1.29 1.22 1.18 1.11 1.07 1.02
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
0.52 0.49 0.46 0.44 0.39 0.38 0.35 0.56 0.50 0.47 0.45 0.43 0.41 0.39
0.22 0.21 0.19 0.19 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.24 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.16
1.60 1.52 1.43 1.38 1.26 1.21 1.15 1.66 1.52 1.45 1.41 1.34 1.30 1.24
3.79 3.59 3.36 3.22 2.92 2.81 2.65 3.93 3.55 3.37 3.27 3.09 2.99 2.84
0.16 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.10
0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03
0.17 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.13
0.38 0.36 0.34 0.33 0.30 0.28 0.26 0.36 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.30 0.28 0.26
0.35 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.36 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.31
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1.68 1.59 1.49 1.43 1.29 1.24 1.17 1.67 1.51 1.44 1.39 1.31 1.27 1.20
0.58 0.55 0.52 0.51 0.48 0.47 0.45 0.58 0.54 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.48
0.74 0.70 0.65 0.63 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.76 0.69 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.58 0.55
0.19 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15
0.25 0.24 0.22 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.26 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.18
1.28 1.20 1.12 1.08 1.01 0.97 0.94 1.31 1.16 1.12 1.09 1.04 1.02 0.98
0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16
0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09
0.28 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.34 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.30
3.45 3.30 3.14 3.05 2.85 2.77 2.66 3.79 3.52 3.43 3.36 3.24 3.18 3.07
8.69 8.26 7.82 7.56 7.02 6.80 6.52 9.18 8.41 8.12 7.94 7.61 7.45 7.18

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B5. Commercial Sector Key Indicators and End-Use Consumption (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Key Indicators and Consumption 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Electricity Related Losses ............................ 7.52 8.23 8.11 7.78 7.46 7.36 7.37 7.27
Total Energy Consumption by End-Use
Space Heating...................................... 1.91 1.88 1.87 1.81 1.76 1.74 1.74 1.72
Space Cooling...................................... 1.67 1.70 1.68 1.62 1.56 1.54 1.54 1.52
Water Heating ...................................... 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.04 1.01 0.99 0.99 0.98
Ventilation ......................................... 0.55 0.57 0.56 0.54 0.52 0.51 0.51 0.50
Cooking ........................................... 0.28 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28
Lighting ........................................... 3.76 3.88 3.83 3.68 3.53 3.49 3.48 3.44
Refrigeration ....................................... 0.45 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46
Office Equipment (PC) ............................... 0.22 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23
Office Equipment (non-PC) ............................ 0.63 0.78 0.77 0.74 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.70
Other Uses6 ........................................ 4.43 5.59 5.56 5.38 5.22 5.16 5.16 5.10
Total ............................................ 14.98 16.51 16.37 15.80 15.29 15.10 15.09 14.93
Non-Marketed Renewable Fuels
Solar7 ............................................. 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Total ............................................ 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B5. Commercial Sector Key Indicators and End-Use Consumption (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

8.39 7.60 6.82 6.38 5.91 5.82 5.64 8.39 6.90 6.35 6.06 5.79 5.81 5.88
1.89 1.78 1.66 1.59 1.44 1.39 1.31 1.85 1.66 1.57 1.52 1.44 1.39 1.33
1.66 1.53 1.41 1.34 1.25 1.23 1.19 1.58 1.36 1.28 1.24 1.20 1.19 1.19
1.08 1.01 0.93 0.89 0.81 0.79 0.75 1.06 0.93 0.88 0.85 0.80 0.79 0.76
0.56 0.52 0.47 0.45 0.41 0.41 0.39 0.54 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.39 0.39 0.39
0.31 0.29 0.27 0.25 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.31 0.27 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.21
3.85 3.49 3.15 2.96 2.72 2.64 2.54 3.73 3.08 2.86 2.74 2.59 2.55 2.52
0.48 0.46 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.43 0.42 0.47 0.44 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.42
0.27 0.25 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.30 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.24
0.85 0.79 0.73 0.69 0.65 0.64 0.62 0.98 0.86 0.81 0.79 0.76 0.76 0.77
6.12 5.73 5.35 5.12 4.78 4.68 4.52 6.74 5.99 5.72 5.56 5.35 5.31 5.24
17.08 15.86 14.64 13.94 12.93 12.63 12.16 17.57 15.31 14.48 14.00 13.40 13.26 13.06
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04

1Includes miscellaneous uses, such as service station equipment, district services, automated teller machines, telecommunications equipment, and medical equipment.
2Excludes estimated consumption from independent power producers.
3Includes miscellaneous uses, such as district services, pumps, lighting, emergency electric generators, and manufacturing performed in commercial buildings.
4Includes miscellaneous uses, such as cooking, district services, and emergency electric generators.
5Includes residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas, coal, motor gasoline, and kerosene.


6Includes miscellaneous uses, such as service station equipment, district services, automated teller machines, telecommunications equipment, medical equipment, pumps, lighting, emergency

electric generators, manufacturing performed in commercial buildings, and cooking (distillate), plus residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas, coal, motor gasoline, and kerosene.
7Includes primary energy displaced by solar thermal water heaters.
Btu = British thermal unit.
PC = Personal computer.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Consumption values of 0.000 are values that round to 0.00, because they are less than 0.005.
Sources: 1996 Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 1997, Online. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/ pub/upd/aug97/index.html (August 21, 1997).

Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B,
FD03BLW.D080398B , and FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B6. Industrial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Key Indicators and Consumption 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Key Indicators
Value of Gross Output (billion 1987 dollars)
Manufacturing ...................................... 3030 3798 3797 3776 3756 3747 3744 3736
Nonmanufacturing ................................... 774 896 895 888 883 879 879 877
Total ............................................ 3805 4694 4692 4664 4639 4626 4623 4613
Energy Prices (1996 dollars per million Btu)
Electricity .......................................... 13.37 11.57 11.83 13.41 14.61 15.14 15.25 15.56
Natural Gas ........................................ 2.96 2.80 2.88 3.51 3.93 4.12 4.22 4.36
Steam Coal ........................................ 1.46 1.30 1.42 2.56 3.27 3.54 3.74 3.96
Residual Oil ........................................ 2.99 2.75 2.84 3.77 4.34 4.55 4.72 4.90
Distillate Oil ........................................ 5.50 5.43 5.53 6.35 6.87 7.05 7.22 7.38
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .............................. 7.80 6.70 6.83 7.45 7.80 7.97 8.10 8.24
Motor Gasoline ..................................... 9.86 8.77 8.94 9.68 10.21 10.41 10.55 10.71
Metallurgical Coal ................................... 1.77 1.63 1.76 2.88 3.60 3.86 4.06 4.28
Energy Consumption
Consumption1
Purchased Electricity ................................. 3.46 4.05 4.03 3.98 3.92 3.88 3.88 3.85
Natural Gas2 ....................................... 9.96 10.97 10.97 11.01 11.11 11.13 11.15 11.14
Steam Coal ........................................ 1.55 1.69 1.67 1.40 1.24 1.19 1.17 1.15
Metallurgical Coal and Coke3 .......................... 0.85 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.88
Residual Fuel ...................................... 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.34
Distillate ........................................... 1.17 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.32 1.33
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .............................. 2.12 2.28 2.28 2.27 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.24
Petrochemical Feedstocks ............................ 1.28 1.39 1.39 1.38 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.35
Other Petroleum4 .................................... 4.31 4.78 4.77 4.74 4.67 4.63 4.61 4.58
Renewables5 ....................................... 1.82 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.09
Delivered Energy .................................. 26.87 29.87 29.82 29.46 29.21 29.09 29.04 28.95
Electricity Related Losses ............................. 7.72 8.52 8.39 8.16 7.91 7.82 7.81 7.71
Total ............................................ 34.59 38.39 38.22 37.61 37.12 36.91 36.86 36.66
Consumption per Unit of Output1
(thousand Btu per 1987 dollars)
Purchased Electricity ................................. 0.91 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.83
Natural Gas2 ....................................... 2.62 2.34 2.34 2.36 2.39 2.41 2.41 2.41
Steam Coal ........................................ 0.41 0.36 0.36 0.30 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.25
Metallurgical Coal and Coke3 .......................... 0.22 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19
Residual Fuel ...................................... 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
Distillate ........................................... 0.31 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .............................. 0.56 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49
Petrochemical Feedstocks ............................ 0.34 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
Other Petroleum4 .................................... 1.13 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.00 1.00 0.99
Renewables5 ....................................... 0.48 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45
Delivered Energy .................................. 7.06 6.36 6.36 6.32 6.30 6.29 6.28 6.27
Electricity Related Losses ............................. 2.03 1.82 1.79 1.75 1.71 1.69 1.69 1.67
Total ............................................ 9.09 8.18 8.15 8.06 8.00 7.98 7.97 7.95

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B6. Industrial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

4316 4262 4202 4188 4083 4063 4026 4954 4850 4828 4797 4772 4766 4751
967 952 940 937 916 912 906 1061 1044 1037 1035 1031 1035 1036
5283 5214 5142 5126 5000 4975 4932 6015 5894 5865 5832 5803 5801 5786
11.28 13.86 15.96 17.12 19.50 20.51 21.51 10.31 13.83 14.74 15.38 16.52 17.00 17.67
2.98 3.96 5.06 5.74 7.26 7.81 8.65 3.25 5.06 5.86 6.35 7.24 7.71 8.50
1.26 2.96 4.53 5.37 7.65 8.65 10.03 1.18 3.67 4.27 4.72 6.19 7.20 8.83
2.94 4.17 5.35 5.96 7.73 8.56 9.65 3.16 4.97 5.39 5.74 6.85 7.63 8.91
5.68 6.76 7.83 8.35 9.93 10.66 11.70 5.86 7.40 7.76 8.10 9.14 9.80 10.97
7.01 7.79 8.41 8.76 9.85 10.44 11.37 6.99 8.12 8.18 8.47 9.36 9.95 10.87
9.13 10.26 11.17 11.57 12.91 13.55 14.50 9.33 10.78 11.04 11.36 12.17 12.79 13.83
1.58 3.28 4.85 5.69 7.98 8.98 10.36 1.51 4.00 4.60 5.05 6.55 7.56 9.19
4.30 4.13 3.99 3.95 3.78 3.74 3.67 4.51 4.27 4.19 4.13 4.04 4.01 3.98
11.43 11.47 11.52 11.54 11.44 11.43 11.12 11.78 11.65 11.45 11.31 11.29 11.24 11.37
1.74 1.36 1.14 1.07 0.92 0.87 0.83 1.79 1.36 1.30 1.26 1.09 1.00 0.90
0.90 0.87 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.82 0.81 0.85 0.76 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.72 0.72
0.35 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.35 0.33 0.41 0.35 0.37 0.39 0.50 0.49 0.47 0.44
1.42 1.41 1.42 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.44 1.52 1.52 1.54 1.55 1.57 1.57 1.58
2.44 2.40 2.38 2.38 2.34 2.35 2.37 2.52 2.47 2.47 2.46 2.50 2.50 2.47
1.48 1.45 1.42 1.41 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.52 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.42 1.42 1.41
5.03 4.92 4.85 4.84 4.65 4.54 4.44 5.34 5.34 5.45 5.41 5.28 5.21 5.08
2.25 2.25 2.24 2.23 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.35 2.39 2.39 2.39 2.39 2.39 2.40
31.35 30.60 30.14 30.04 29.29 29.05 28.61 32.53 31.59 31.37 31.19 30.81 30.53 30.34
8.65 7.92 7.21 6.85 6.44 6.43 6.28 8.37 7.05 6.51 6.23 6.01 6.06 6.20
40.00 38.52 37.34 36.89 35.73 35.48 34.88 40.89 38.64 37.88 37.42 36.82 36.60 36.55
0.81 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.69
2.16 2.20 2.24 2.25 2.29 2.30 2.26 1.96 1.98 1.95 1.94 1.95 1.94 1.97
0.33 0.26 0.22 0.21 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.30 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.19 0.17 0.16
0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12
0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08
0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27
0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.43
0.28 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.24
0.95 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.88
0.43 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.39 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41
5.93 5.87 5.86 5.86 5.86 5.84 5.80 5.41 5.36 5.35 5.35 5.31 5.26 5.24
1.64 1.52 1.40 1.34 1.29 1.29 1.27 1.39 1.20 1.11 1.07 1.04 1.05 1.07
7.57 7.39 7.26 7.20 7.15 7.13 7.07 6.80 6.56 6.46 6.42 6.34 6.31 6.32

1Fuel consumption includes consumption for cogeneration.

2Includes lease and plant fuel.

3Includes net coke coal imports.

4Includes petroleum coke, asphalt, road oil, lubricants, motor gasoline, still gas, and miscellaneous petroleum products.

5Includes consumption of energy from hydroelectric, wood and wood waste, municipal solid waste, and other biomass.

Btu = British thermal unit.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 1996 prices for gasoline and distillate are based on prices in various issues of Energy Information Administration (EIA), Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380(96/03-97/04)
(Washington, DC, 1996 - 97). 1996 coal prices: EIA, Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(97/08) (Washington, DC, August 1997). 1996 electricity prices: EIA, AEO98 National Energy
Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B. Other
1996 prices derived from EIA, State Energy Data Report 1994. Online. ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/state.data/021494.pdf (August 26, 1997). Other 1996 values: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook,
August 1997. Online. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/upd/aug97/index.html (August 21, 1997). Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling Systemruns KYBASE.D080398A,
FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B7. Transportation Sector Key Indicators and Delivered Energy Consumption

Key Indicators and Consumption 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Key Indicators
Level of Travel (billions)
Light-Duty Vehicles <8,500 lbs. (VMT) .................... 2276 2668 2665 2654 2639 2633 2626 2622
Commercial Light Trucks (VMT)1 ........................ 67 80 80 79 79 79 79 78
Freight Trucks >10,000 lbs. (VMT) 162 212 212 211 210 209 209 208
Air (seat miles available) ............................... 999 1472 1471 1462 1453 1445 1438 1431
Rail (ton miles traveled)................................ 1218 1529 1499 1444 1379 1356 1342 1311
Marine (ton miles traveled) ............................. 779 862 859 848 841 831 834 831
Energy Efficiency Indicators
New Car (miles per gallon)2 ............................. 28.2 29.8 29.9 30.4 30.7 30.8 30.9 31.0
New Light Truck (miles per gallon)2 ....................... 20.9 20.0 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.8
Light-Duty Fleet (miles per gallon)3 ....................... 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3
New Commercial Light Truck (MPG)1 ..................... 20.2 19.3 19.4 19.7 19.9 19.9 20.0 20.1
Stock Commercial Light Truck (MPG)1 .................... 14.5 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9
Aircraft Efficiency (seat miles per gallon) ................... 50.6 53.9 53.9 53.9 53.9 53.8 53.8 53.8
Freight Truck Efficiency (miles per gallon) .................. 5.6 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9
Rail Efficiency (ton miles per thousand Btu) ................ 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
Domestic Shipping Efficiency
(ton miles per thousand Btu) ........................... 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
Energy Use by Mode (quadrillion Btu)
Light-Duty Vehicles ................................... 13.95 16.51 16.49 16.40 16.29 16.24 16.20 16.16
Commercial Light Trucks1 .............................. 0.58 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66
Freight Trucks ....................................... 4.04 4.93 4.93 4.91 4.89 4.88 4.88 4.88
Air ................................................. 3.32 4.40 4.40 4.37 4.35 4.33 4.31 4.30
Rail ................................................ 0.53 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.57 0.56 0.55
Marine .............................................. 1.43 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.69 1.69 1.69
Pipeline Fuel ........................................ 0.73 0.80 0.83 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.84 0.83
Other4 .............................................. 0.24 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28
Total .............................................. 24.73 29.81 29.81 29.64 29.45 29.35 29.30 29.22

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B7. Transportation Sector Key Indicators and Delivered Energy Consumption (Continued)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

2895 2857 2790 2752 2643 2591 2505 3247 3191 3168 3147 3079 3035 2960
87 86 85 84 82 81 79 98 97 96 96 95 94 93
232 229 227 226 222 221 220 250 247 246 245 245 246 246
1753 1729 1667 1638 1537 1496 1434 2285 2232 2215 2197 2144 2119 2060
1644 1499 1349 1266 1145 1117 1084 1784 1457 1313 1242 1143 1127 1113
916 889 869 863 831 829 818 965 913 893 884 861 855 846
30.6 32.0 33.0 33.6 35.0 35.6 36.4 31.6 33.1 33.3 33.6 34.4 34.9 35.6
20.4 21.2 21.8 22.1 22.9 23.3 23.7 21.8 22.7 22.8 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.1
20.5 20.7 21.0 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.7 21.4 22.2 22.4 22.6 23.3 23.6 24.0
19.5 20.4 21.0 21.3 22.1 22.4 22.9 20.4 21.3 21.5 21.7 22.1 22.3 22.8
15.0 15.1 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.6
55.6 55.6 55.6 55.6 55.6 55.5 55.4 59.4 59.7 59.8 59.8 59.9 60.0 59.9
6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
17.75 17.29 16.62 16.27 15.40 15.01 14.39 19.04 18.09 17.76 17.49 16.63 16.19 15.54
0.73 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.66 0.65 0.64 0.80 0.77 0.75 0.75 0.72 0.71 0.70
5.21 5.15 5.09 5.07 4.97 4.95 4.92 5.41 5.31 5.19 5.17 5.11 5.10 5.09
5.03 4.96 4.80 4.73 4.48 4.37 4.23 6.00 5.84 5.79 5.74 5.61 5.55 5.41
0.66 0.61 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.48 0.46 0.69 0.58 0.53 0.51 0.47 0.47 0.46
1.91 1.90 1.89 1.89 1.87 1.87 1.86 2.25 2.24 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23
0.87 0.90 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.98 1.05 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.08 1.05
0.30 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.33
32.35 31.70 30.74 30.30 28.98 28.44 27.60 35.37 34.08 33.57 33.19 32.08 31.54 30.69

1Commercial trucks 8,500 to 10,000 pounds.
2Environmental Protection Agency rated miles per gallon.
3Combined car and light truck "on-the-road" estimate.
4Includes lubricants and aviation gasoline.
Btu = British thermal unit.


VMT=Vehicle miles traveled.
MPG = Miles per gallon.
Lbs. = Pounds.


Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 1996: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), FAA Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1996-2007, (Washington, DC, February 1995); Energy Information Administration (EIA), Short-
Term Energy Outlook, August 1997, Online. http://ww.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/upd /aug97/index.html (August 21, 1997); EIA, Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales 1996, DOE/EIA-0535(96)
(Washington, DC, September 1997); and United States Department of Defense, Defense Fuel Supply Center. Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs
KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B8. Electricity Supply, Disposition, and Prices

(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Generation by Fuel Type
Electric Generators1
Coal .............................................. 1758 2019 1949 1820 1681 1597 1556 1504
Petroleum ......................................... 80 42 41 37 36 34 32 35
Natural Gas ........................................ 288 612 671 714 777 807 841 863
Nuclear Power...................................... 675 651 683 683 683 698 698 698
Pumped Storage .................................... -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3
Renewable Sources2 ................................. 392 369 379 385 385 392 396 401
Total ............................................ 3191 3690 3720 3637 3559 3525 3519 3498
Non-Utility Generation for Own Use ..................... 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Cogenerators3
Coal ............................................. 51 51 51 51 50 50 50 50
Petroleum ........................................ 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Natural Gas ....................................... 196 214 214 218 222 224 223 224
Other Gaseous Fuels4 ............................... 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Renewable Sources2 ................................ 42 47 47 47 46 46 46 46
Other5 ........................................... 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total ........................................... 305 329 329 332 335 337 337 337
Sales to Utilities .................................... 156 161 161 161 162 162 162 162
Generation for Own Use.............................. 149 168 168 171 174 175 175 175
Net Imports6 ........................................ 38 67 21 21 21 21 21 21
Electricity Sales by Sector
Residential.......................................... 1079 1271 1265 1235 1210 1201 1199 1193
Commercial ......................................... 988 1147 1143 1112 1084 1071 1071 1064
Industrial ........................................... 1014 1188 1183 1167 1149 1138 1136 1129
Transportation ....................................... 17 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
Total ............................................. 3098 3630 3615 3538 3467 3435 3430 3410
End-Use Prices (1996 cents per kilowatthour)7
Residential.......................................... 8.3 7.4 7.5 8.4 9.1 9.4 9.5 9.6
Commercial ......................................... 7.5 6.6 6.7 7.6 8.3 8.6 8.7 8.8
Industrial ........................................... 4.6 3.9 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3
Transportation ....................................... 5.2 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
All Sectors Average ................................ 6.8 6.0 6.1 6.9 7.4 7.7 7.8 7.9

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B8. Electricity Supply, Disposition, and Prices (Continued)

(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

2075 1709 1273 977 612 510 385 2186 1297 797 508 146 79 27
36 30 25 25 26 35 40 29 19 27 64 99 75 40
868 1050 1309 1518 1664 1683 1708 1362 1858 2098 2243 2283 2249 2138
578 626 646 654 689 689 693 356 474 528 552 625 642 694
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3
373 389 404 409 435 446 466 383 437 548 571 692 766 857
3928 3801 3654 3581 3422 3360 3288 4312 4081 3994 3935 3843 3809 3752
6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5
51 50 50 50 49 49 49 51 50 49 49 49 49 49
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7
222 227 230 233 238 239 240 217 222 225 228 231 232 234
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
50 50 49 49 48 48 48 51 53 53 53 53 53 53
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
339 343 346 349 352 353 353 336 341 345 348 351 351 353
163 163 163 164 164 165 165 162 163 163 164 165 165 165
177 180 183 185 188 188 189 174 178 181 184 187 187 188
64 10 10 10 10 10 10 59 4 4 4 4 4 4
1354 1296 1252 1228 1188 1168 1150 1552 1456 1431 1414 1388 1380 1363
1221 1161 1108 1078 1019 993 966 1328 1227 1197 1177 1142 1127 1104
1260 1210 1171 1157 1109 1097 1075 1323 1253 1227 1210 1185 1176 1165
30 30 29 29 28 28 27 37 36 36 36 35 34 34
3865 3696 3561 3492 3344 3286 3219 4240 3972 3892 3837 3750 3718 3665
7.3 8.7 9.9 10.7 12.1 12.7 13.3 6.9 9.0 9.6 10.0 10.7 10.9 11.4
6.4 7.9 9.1 9.8 11.2 11.8 12.4 6.0 8.1 8.6 8.9 9.6 9.8 10.3
3.8 4.7 5.4 5.8 6.7 7.0 7.3 3.5 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.6 5.8 6.0
4.5 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.4 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5
5.9 7.1 8.2 8.8 10.0 10.5 11.0 5.6 7.3 7.8 8.1 8.7 8.9 9.3

1Includes grid-connected generation at all utilities and nonutilities except for cogenerators. Includes small power producers, exempt wholesale generators, and generators at industrial and

commercial facilities which provide electricity for on-site use and for sales to utilities.
2Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, municipal solid waste, landfill gas, other biomass, solar, and wind power.
3Cogenerators produce electricity and other useful thermal energy. Includes sales to utilities and generation for own use.
4Other gaseous fuels include refinery and still gas.
5Other includes hydrogen, sulfur, batteries, chemicals, fish oil, and spent sulfite liquor.
6In 1996 approximately two-thirds of the U.S. electricity imports were provided by renewable sources (hydroelectricity); EIA does not project future proportions.
7Prices represent average revenue per kilowatthour.
Kwh = kilowatthour.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Sources: 1996 commercial and transportation sales derived from: Total transportation plus commercial sales come from Energy Information Administration (EIA), State Energy Data Report

1994. Online. ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/state.data/021494.pdf (August 26, 1997), but individual sectors do not match because sales taken from commercial and placed in transportation,
according to Oak Ridge National Laboratories, Transportation Energy Data Book 16 (July 1996) which indicates the transportation value should be higher. 1996 generation by electric utilities,
nonutilities, and cogenerators, net electricity imports, residential sales, and industrial sales: EIA, Annual Energy Review 1996, DOE/EIA-0384(96) (Washington, DC, July 1997). 1996 residential
electricity prices derived from EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook, August 1997, Online. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ teo/pub/upd/aug97/index.html (August 21, 1997). 1996 electricity prices
for commercial, industrial, and transportation; price components; and projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B,
FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B9. Electricity Generating Capability

(Thousand Megawatts)

Net Summer Capability1 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Electric Generators2
Capability
Coal Steam .................................. 303.7 305.3 302.1 302.1 302.1 302.0 301.9 301.9
Other Fossil Steam3 ........................... 136.6 128.2 126.0 125.6 125.4 125.4 126.1 124.4
Combined Cycle .............................. 15.2 50.7 61.6 66.0 74.7 72.6 70.8 78.5
Combustion Turbine/Diesel...................... 61.6 123.9 115.6 105.7 99.0 99.2 99.3 96.2
Nuclear Power................................ 100.8 89.6 94.1 94.1 94.1 96.1 96.1 96.1
Pumped Storage .............................. 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9
Fuel Cells ................................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Renewable Sources4 ........................... 87.8 91.1 91.3 92.5 93.1 94.8 95.7 97.0
Total ...................................... 725.5 808.8 810.5 805.9 808.2 810.0 809.8 814.0
Cumulative Planned Additions5
Coal Steam .................................. 2.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
Other Fossil Steam3 ........................... 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Combined Cycle .............................. 2.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Combustion Turbine/Diesel...................... 3.8 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
Nuclear Power................................ 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Pumped Storage .............................. 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Fuel Cells ................................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Renewable Sources4 ........................... 0.7 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
Total ...................................... 11.1 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3
Cumulative Unplanned Additions5
Coal Steam .................................. 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Fossil Steam3 ........................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Combined Cycle .............................. 0.0 34.2 45.1 49.5 58.2 56.1 54.3 62.0
Combustion Turbine/Diesel..................... . 5.7 68.4 59.6 49.7 43.3 43.3 43.7 40.4
Nuclear Power................................ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pumped Storage .............................. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fuel Cells ................................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Renewable Sources4 ........................... 0.8 1.4 1.6 2.9 3.4 5.1 6.0 7.3
Total ...................................... 6.6 107.1 106.2 102.1 104.9 104.5 104.1 109.7
Cumulative Total Additions ..................... 17.7 123.4 122.5 118.4 121.2 120.8 120.4 126.0
Cumulative Retirements6 ....................... 15.2 40.1 37.5 38.0 38.5 36.4 36.1 37.5

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B9. Electricity Generating Capability (Continued)

(Thousand Megawatts)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

307.8 299.9 288.5 275.8 268.1 266.4 258.9 313.6 270.5 232.2 197.5 136.3 100.1 77.8
123.1 104.2 87.0 92.7 105.4 109.8 108.0 109.3 73.7 53.6 49.7 53.1 70.2 71.1
90.1 117.1 157.6 186.7 191.4 185.9 191.3 182.9 244.3 288.1 318.0 336.7 334.0 321.4
152.1 121.8 106.0 100.1 102.5 103.5 97.9 186.6 137.4 116.7 109.3 113.9 118.1 116.9
76.0 83.2 86.6 88.8 94.1 94.1 95.4 47.9 62.9 71.1 73.8 84.1 86.4 93.4
19.5 19.2 19.2 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.9 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
91.8 93.7 98.0 100.1 106.1 108.2 114.9 93.6 107.7 132.7 140.3 161.7 172.7 191.0
860.5 839.2 843.0 863.7 887.2 887.3 886.2 953.1 915.7 913.5 908.2 905.4 901.0 891.1
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7
5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
73.4 100.3 141.1 169.9 174.7 169.1 174.5 166.2 227.8 271.5 301.5 320.2 317.2 305.1
97.9 67.3 51.5 45.6 47.8 48.5 43.4 132.4 83.2 62.5 55.2 59.5 64.0 62.7
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2.2 4.1 8.4 10.5 16.5 18.6 25.2 4.5 18.5 43.5 51.1 72.6 83.6 101.8
179.2 171.8 201.0 226.0 239.0 236.2 243.1 317.1 329.5 377.6 407.8 452.2 464.8 469.6
195.8 188.4 217.7 242.7 255.7 252.9 259.8 333.8 346.1 394.2 424.5 468.9 481.5 486.3
60.9 73.7 99.2 104.5 94.0 91.1 99.1 106.3 155.0 205.3 241.8 288.1 305.6 320.2

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B9. Electricity Generating Capability (Continued)

(Thousand Megawatts)

Net Summer Capability1 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Cogenerators7
Capability
Coal ........................................ 9.2 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8
Petroleum ................................... 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Natural Gas .................................. 31.4 34.9 35.0 35.4 36.0 36.3 36.2 36.2
Other Gaseous Fuels .......................... 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Renewable Sources4 ........................... 5.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8
Other ....................................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total ...................................... 48.8 54.2 54.2 54.6 55.0 55.3 55.2 55.3
Cumulative Additions5 ......................... 18.2 23.6 23.6 23.9 24.4 24.7 24.6 24.6

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B9. Electricity Generating Capability (Continued)

(Thousand Megawatts)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

10.0 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.9
1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
36.0 36.6 37.1 37.5 38.2 38.3 38.4 35.4 36.1 36.6 37.0 37.6 37.7 37.8
1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
55.6 56.1 56.6 56.9 57.4 57.5 57.5 55.2 56.0 56.5 56.9 57.4 57.4 57.6
24.9 25.5 25.9 26.3 26.7 26.8 26.9 24.6 25.4 25.8 26.2 26.7 26.8 27.0
1Net summer capability is the steady hourly output that generating equipment is expected to supply to system load (exclusive of auxiliary power), as demonstrated by tests during summer
peak demand.

2Includes grid-connected utilities and nonutilities except for cogenerators. Includes small power producers, exempt wholesale generators, and generators at industrial and commercial facilities
which produce electricity for on-site use and sales to utilities.

3Includes oil-, gas-, and dual-fired capability.

4Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, municipal solid waste, landfill gas, other biomass, solar and wind power.

5Cumulative additions after December 31, 1995.

6Cumulative total retirements from 1990.

7Nameplate capacity is reported for nonutilities on Form EIA-867, "Annual Power Producer Report." Nameplate capacity is designated by the manufacturer. The nameplate capacity has
been converted to the net summer capability based on historic relationships.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Net summer capability has been estimated for nonutility generators for AEO98. Net summer capacity is used
to be consistent with electric utility capacity estimates. Data for electric utility capacity are the most recent data available as of August 25, 1997. Therefore, capacity estimates may differ from
other Energy Information Administration sources.

Sources: 1996 net summer capability at electric utilities and planned additions: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Form EIA-860, "Annual Electric Generator Report." Net summer
capability for nonutilities and cogeneration in 1996 and planned additions estimated based on EIA, Form EIA-867, "Annual Nonutility Power Producer Report." Projections: EIA, AEO98
National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and
FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B10. Electricity Trade

(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Electricity Trade 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Interregional Electricity Trade
Gross Domestic Firm Power Sales ........................ 173.4 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2
Gross Domestic Economy Sales ......................... 54.7 66.3 77.5 58.3 49.8 46.7 50.5 51.8
Gross Domestic Trade ............................... 228.1 205.5 216.7 197.5 189.0 185.9 189.7 191.0
Gross Domestic Firm Power Sales
(million 1996 dollars) .................................. 8050.2 6462.9 6462.9 6462.9 6462.9 6462.9 6462.9 6462.9
Gross Domestic Economy Sales
(million 1996 dollars) .................................. 1283.9 1551.5 1801.0 1919.6 1914.1 1889.6 2125.6 2204.0
Gross Domestic Sales
(million 1996 dollars) ............................... 9334.1 8014.3 8263.9 8382.5 8377.0 8352.5 8588.4 8666.9
International Electricity Trade
Firm Power Imports From Canada and Mexico1 ............. 26.1 51.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6
Economy Imports From Canada and Mexico1 ................ 20.7 35.8 35.8 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.8 35.8
Gross Imports From Canada and Mexico1 ............... 46.8 87.2 41.5 41.5 41.5 41.5 41.4 41.5
Firm Power Exports To Canada and Mexico ................ 2.8 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4
Economy Exports To Canada and Mexico .................. 6.4 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
Gross Exports To Canada and Mexico .................. 9.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B10. Electricity Trade (Continued)

(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2 139.2
66.2 54.8 39.6 27.2 29.7 27.7 39.6 81.5 63.3 52.0 44.2 51.4 67.0 64.5
205.4 194.0 178.8 166.4 168.9 167.0 178.8 220.7 202.5 191.3 183.4 190.6 206.2 203.7
6462.9 6462.9 6462.9 6462.9 6462.9 6462.9 6462.9 6462.9 6462.9 6462.9 6462.9 6462.9 6462.9 6462.9
1567.0 1918.0 1884.0 1467.6 2017.4 2071.5 3356.4 1831.8 2478.3 2210.6 2013.1 2640.1 3602.1 3901.1
8029.9 8380.9 8346.8 7930.5 8480.3 8534.4 9819.3 8294.7 8941.2 8673.4 8475.9 9103.0 10065.0 10364.0
51.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 50.3 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6
33.4 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.1 25.2 25.2 30.1 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6
84.8 31.1 31.1 31.1 30.7 30.8 30.8 80.4 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2
13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4
7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7
21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0

1Historically electric imports were primarily from renewable resources, principally hydroelectric.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Firm Power Sales are capacity sales, meaning the delivery of the power is scheduled as part of the normal
operating conditions of the affected electric systems. Economy Sales are subject to curtailment or cessation of delivery by the supplier in accordance with prior agreements or under specified
conditions.

Sources: 1996 interregional electricity trade data: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Bulk Power Data System. 1996 international electricity trade data: DOE Form FE-718R, "Annual
Report of International Electrical Export/Import Data." Firm/economy share: National Energy Board, Annual Report 1993. Planned interregional and international firm power sales: DOE Form
IE-411, "Coordinated Bulk Power Supply Program Report," April 1995. Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B,
FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B11. Petroleum Supply and Disposition Balance

(Million Barrels per Day, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply and Disposition 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Crude Oil
Domestic Crude Production1 ........................... 6.48 6.02 6.01 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
Alaska ........................................... 1.40 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93
Lower 48 States .................................... 5.08 5.09 5.07 5.07 5.07 5.07 5.06 5.07
Net Imports ........................................ 7.40 9.81 9.80 9.77 9.72 9.71 9.65 9.63
Gross Imports ..................................... 7.51 9.91 9.90 9.87 9.82 9.81 9.76 9.73
Exports .......................................... 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Other Crude Supply2 ................................. 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Crude Supply ................................. 13.87 15.83 15.81 15.78 15.73 15.71 15.65 15.63
Natural Gas Plant Liquids ............................ 1.83 1.95 1.97 1.98 2.00 2.02 2.02 2.01
Other Inputs3 ....................................... 0.39 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23
Refinery Processing Gain4 ............................ 0.84 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.82
Net Product Imports5 ................................ 1.10 2.08 2.07 1.95 1.87 1.78 1.78 1.75
Gross Refined Prod. Imports ........................... 1.39 2.07 2.16 2.06 1.94 1.85 1.86 1.85
Unfinished Oil Imports ............................. 0.37 0.82 0.72 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.66
Ethers Imported ..................................... 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
Blending Components Imported ........................ 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Exports ........................................... 0.87 0.85 0.86 0.85 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.81
Total Primary Supply6 ................................ 18.03 21.00 20.96 20.81 20.63 20.55 20.49 20.45
Refined Petroleum Products Supplied
Motor Gasoline7 ..................................... 7.99 9.12 9.11 9.06 9.00 8.97 8.95 8.93
Jet Fuel8 .......................................... 1.58 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.07 2.06 2.06
Distillate Fuel9 ...................................... 3.32 3.87 3.84 3.80 3.77 3.75 3.75 3.73
Residual Fuel ...................................... 0.90 0.83 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.81
Other10 ............................................ 4.66 5.13 5.12 5.08 5.03 5.00 4.99 4.97
Total ............................................ 18.45 21.05 21.01 20.86 20.69 20.60 20.54 20.49
Refined Petroleum Products Supplied
Residential and Commercial ........................... 1.13 1.05 1.05 1.03 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.00
Industrial11 ......................................... 4.87 5.33 5.33 5.29 5.24 5.21 5.20 5.18
Transportation ...................................... 12.12 14.48 14.46 14.38 14.28 14.23 14.20 14.16
Electric Generators12 ................................. 0.33 0.19 0.18 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.15
Total ............................................ 18.45 21.05 21.01 20.86 20.69 20.60 20.54 20.49
Discrepancy13 ...................................... -0.42 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.04
World Oil Price (1996 dollars per barrel)14 ............... 20.48 20.26 20.12 20.04 19.96 19.95 19.91 19.89
Import Share of Product Supplied ..................... 0.46 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56
Net Expenditures for Imported Crude Oil and Petroleum
Products (billion 1996 dollars) ........................ 62.27 89.00 88.36 86.88 85.69 85.01 84.39 83.98
Domestic Refinery Distillation Capacity ................. 15.4 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.4
Capacity Utilization Rate (percent) ..................... 94.0 95.0 95.1 95.2 95.3 95.3 95.3 95.3

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B11. Petroleum Supply and Disposition Balance (Continued)

(Million Barrels per Day, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

5.86 5.82 5.76 5.74 5.70 5.68 5.67 5.18 5.00 4.94 4.93 4.84 4.78 4.73
0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47
5.11 5.07 5.02 4.99 4.96 4.94 4.93 4.70 4.53 4.47 4.46 4.37 4.32 4.27
10.17 10.13 10.10 10.03 9.73 9.56 9.24 11.34 11.22 11.31 11.32 11.30 11.26 11.12
10.17 10.17 10.15 10.10 9.73 9.62 9.35 11.39 11.27 11.35 11.36 11.32 11.31 11.12
0.00 0.04 0.05 0.08 0.00 0.06 0.11 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.05 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
16.03 15.95 15.86 15.77 15.44 15.24 14.91 16.52 16.23 16.25 16.25 16.14 16.04 15.85
2.15 2.18 2.26 2.35 2.39 2.37 2.33 2.43 2.56 2.62 2.67 2.65 2.59 2.51
0.29 0.25 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.40 0.43 0.29 0.28 0.31 0.31 0.44 0.49 0.49
0.82 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.77 0.70 0.69 0.66 0.65 0.69 0.69
3.14 2.74 2.12 1.86 1.38 1.17 1.09 3.96 3.37 3.07 2.99 2.47 2.12 1.74
2.96 2.80 2.19 1.93 1.61 1.54 1.49 3.58 3.09 2.85 2.81 2.44 2.11 1.74
0.95 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.50 0.34 0.30 1.04 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.81 0.76 0.74
0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.84 0.87 0.84 0.82 0.74 0.71 0.70 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.77 0.79 0.75 0.74
22.42 21.92 21.31 21.04 20.22 19.91 19.48 23.98 23.14 22.94 22.88 22.34 21.93 21.28
9.66 9.41 9.06 8.88 8.42 8.22 7.89 10.20 9.70 9.52 9.38 8.93 8.70 8.37
2.40 2.37 2.30 2.26 2.14 2.09 2.02 2.87 2.79 2.77 2.74 2.68 2.65 2.58
4.06 3.96 3.87 3.84 3.74 3.73 3.70 4.23 4.07 4.03 4.12 4.17 4.07 3.92
0.89 0.87 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.85 0.90 0.98 0.95 0.95 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97
5.47 5.36 5.28 5.26 5.12 5.05 5.01 5.75 5.67 5.71 5.68 5.62 5.57 5.47
22.47 21.97 21.36 21.09 20.25 19.95 19.51 24.02 23.18 22.98 22.92 22.38 21.96 21.31
1.04 1.00 0.97 0.96 0.92 0.90 0.87 1.01 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.91 0.89 0.86
5.65 5.55 5.49 5.49 5.35 5.30 5.30 5.91 5.85 5.92 5.94 5.90 5.86 5.76
15.63 15.29 14.79 14.54 13.88 13.61 13.18 16.97 16.29 16.01 15.81 15.24 14.97 14.56
0.16 0.13 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.15 0.17 0.13 0.08 0.10 0.22 0.32 0.25 0.14
22.47 21.97 21.36 21.09 20.25 19.95 19.51 24.02 23.18 22.98 22.92 22.38 21.96 21.31
-0.05 -0.05 -0.04 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04
20.77 19.99 19.15 18.72 18.11 17.82 17.54 21.69 20.14 19.81 19.73 19.08 18.74 18.38
0.59 0.59 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.54 0.53 0.64 0.63 0.63 0.62 0.62 0.61 0.60
103.21 96.11 86.36 81.85 73.36 69.65 65.92 123.11 108.06 104.10 103.12 95.98 91.83 85.88
16.9 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.4 17.5 17.1 17.1 17.2 17.1 17.0 16.7
95.1 95.2 95.2 95.0 93.4 92.8 90.9 95.1 95.2 95.2 95.1 94.9 94.9 95.2

1Includes lease condensate.

2Strategic petroleum reserve stock additions plus unaccounted for crude oil and crude stock withdrawals minus crude products supplied.

3Includes alcohols, ethers, petroleum product stock withdrawals, domestic sources of blending components, and other hydrocarbons.

4Represents volumetric gain in refinery distillation and cracking processes.

5Includes net imports of finished petroleum products, unfinished oils, other hydrocarbons, alcohols, ethers, and blending components.

6Total crude supply plus natural gas plant liquids, other inputs, refinery processing gain, and net petroleum imports.

7Includes ethanol and ethers blended into gasoline.

8Includes naphtha and kerosene types.

9Includes distillate and kerosene.

10Includes aviation gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, waxes, asphalt, road oil, still gas, special naphthas, petroleum coke, crude oil product supplied,
and miscellaneous petroleum products.

11Includes consumption by cogenerators.

12Includes all electric power generators except cogenerators, which produce electricity and other useful thermal energy.

13Balancing item. Includes unaccounted for supply, losses and gains.

14Average refiner acquisition cost for imported crude oil.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 1996 expenditures for imported crude oil and petroleum products based on internal calculations. Other 1996 data: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Petroleum Supply
Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0340(96) (Washington, DC, June 1997). Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B,
FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B12. Petroleum Product Prices

(1996 Cents per Gallon Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sector and Fuel 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

World Oil Price (1996 dollars per barrel) .................. 20.48 20.26 20.12 20.04 19.96 19.95 19.91 19.89
Delivered Sector Product Prices
Residential
Distillate Fuel ....................................... 98.4 105.3 106.5 117.6 124.8 127.6 129.7 132.0
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .............................. 100.0 104.5 105.5 111.1 114.1 115.5 116.7 117.9
Commercial
Distillate Fuel ....................................... 73.1 74.5 75.8 87.0 94.2 96.9 99.0 101.4
Residual Fuel ...................................... 48.4 46.0 47.8 61.8 70.0 73.3 75.8 78.5
Residual Fuel (1996 dollars per barrel) ................... 20.35 19.31 20.09 25.97 29.39 30.77 31.82 32.95
Industrial1
Distillate Fuel ....................................... 76.3 75.3 76.7 88.0 95.2 97.8 100.1 102.4
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .............................. 67.3 57.9 58.9 64.3 67.3 68.8 69.9 71.1
Residual Fuel ...................................... 44.8 41.1 42.6 56.4 64.9 68.2 70.7 73.4
Residual Fuel (1996 dollars per barrel) ................... 18.81 17.28 17.88 23.68 27.27 28.62 29.70 30.84
Transportation
Diesel Fuel (distillate)2 ............................... 123.5 117.4 119.5 130.5 137.2 139.7 141.9 144.1
Jet Fuel3 .......................................... 74.6 72.5 74.4 85.1 91.6 94.0 96.0 98.0
Motor Gasoline4 ..................................... 122.5 123.0 125.1 134.2 140.6 143.1 144.9 146.8
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .............................. 109.0 112.1 113.1 118.6 121.5 122.9 124.0 125.2
Residual Fuel ...................................... 38.2 40.5 41.8 55.6 64.3 67.4 70.0 72.5
Residual Fuel (1996 dollars per barrel) ................... 16.04 17.00 17.58 23.36 27.00 28.32 29.40 30.45
E85 .............................................. 141.7 146.2 146.5 148.4 149.2 149.6 149.8 150.1
M85 .............................................. 89.6 91.8 92.3 97.6 100.9 102.2 103.2 104.2
Electric Generators5
Distillate Fuel ....................................... 68.1 68.9 70.7 82.2 89.5 92.2 94.5 96.9
Residual Fuel ...................................... 45.9 46.4 47.2 61.6 70.4 74.1 76.7 79.1
Residual Fuel (1996 dollars per barrel) ................... 19.28 19.49 19.81 25.86 29.58 31.14 32.19 33.23
Refined Petroleum Product Prices6
Distillate Fuel ....................................... 108.7 107.0 109.0 120.1 126.9 129.4 131.7 133.9
Jet Fuel3 .......................................... 74.6 72.5 74.4 85.1 91.6 94.0 96.0 98.0
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .............................. 73.6 68.1 69.2 74.6 77.5 79.0 80.1 81.3
Motor Gasoline4 ..................................... 122.5 122.8 124.9 134.0 140.4 142.9 144.7 146.6
Residual Fuel ...................................... 42.5 42.0 43.3 57.2 65.8 69.0 71.5 74.1
Residual Fuel (1996 dollars per barrel) ................... 17.87 17.64 18.20 24.01 27.63 28.98 30.03 31.13
Average ......................................... 102.8 101.9 103.7 113.0 119.0 121.4 123.2 125.0

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B12. Petroleum Product Prices (Continued)

(1996 Cents per Gallon Unless Otherwise Noted)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

20.77 19.99 19.15 18.72 18.11 17.82 17.54 21.69 20.14 19.81 19.73 19.08 18.74 18.38
107.9 122.9 137.7 145.2 167.9 177.9 192.0 108.5 130.9 136.9 141.6 155.9 165.1 181.2
107.9 114.7 120.1 123.1 132.4 137.5 144.9 107.8 117.5 118.5 120.7 128.0 133.1 141.5
77.3 92.3 107.1 114.5 136.9 147.0 161.2 78.5 100.5 106.0 110.7 125.1 134.3 150.5
47.6 66.3 84.2 93.8 121.2 133.2 150.0 50.5 78.3 85.1 90.7 107.9 120.0 139.6
20.01 27.86 35.35 39.38 50.90 55.96 63.01 21.23 32.90 35.75 38.08 45.31 50.38 58.65
78.7 93.7 108.6 115.8 137.7 147.9 162.2 81.3 102.7 107.6 112.3 126.7 135.9 152.1
60.5 67.2 72.6 75.6 85.0 90.1 98.1 60.3 70.0 70.6 73.1 80.8 85.9 93.8
44.0 62.5 80.1 89.2 115.7 128.1 144.5 47.3 74.4 80.7 85.9 102.5 114.2 133.4
18.47 26.23 33.64 37.47 48.61 53.79 60.70 19.86 31.26 33.89 36.10 43.04 47.95 56.04
117.8 132.9 147.9 155.1 175.6 185.4 199.5 114.0 135.2 140.1 144.6 159.5 168.9 185.1
75.8 90.3 103.3 110.1 129.8 138.3 151.1 77.8 98.9 104.0 108.2 122.0 130.5 144.9
125.4 139.3 150.4 155.5 172.0 179.8 191.6 124.0 142.0 145.5 149.3 159.7 167.4 180.2
113.7 120.4 125.6 128.6 137.5 142.6 149.8 110.1 119.8 121.0 123.2 130.2 135.2 143.4
43.5 62.3 80.0 89.2 115.5 127.8 144.7 46.1 73.6 80.2 85.3 102.5 114.3 134.1
18.25 26.17 33.59 37.45 48.51 53.67 60.76 19.35 30.93 33.68 35.83 43.05 47.99 56.32
149.6 150.2 146.5 146.5 162.1 168.4 175.4 148.3 144.8 145.5 147.9 155.9 160.3 170.7
92.5 99.1 104.8 107.7 117.2 121.5 126.0 92.9 101.5 103.5 105.6 111.2 115.4 122.6
72.3 88.0 103.6 111.4 132.5 140.7 154.5 74.4 96.9 100.0 104.3 118.6 127.8 144.0
49.2 69.2 88.0 97.6 125.1 136.3 153.3 53.2 84.8 93.3 100.6 120.7 132.3 150.5
20.67 29.08 36.95 41.00 52.52 57.25 64.40 22.36 35.62 39.20 42.25 50.68 55.57 63.22
108.4 123.5 138.5 145.6 166.6 176.3 190.3 106.3 127.7 132.3 135.7 149.5 159.4 176.5
75.8 90.3 103.3 110.1 129.8 138.3 151.1 77.8 98.9 104.0 108.2 122.0 130.5 144.9
71.5 78.1 83.4 86.3 95.6 100.5 108.1 71.8 81.5 82.2 84.6 91.7 96.6 104.5
125.2 139.1 150.2 155.3 171.8 179.6 191.4 123.9 141.8 145.3 149.2 159.6 167.3 180.1
44.6 63.5 81.1 90.4 116.9 129.3 146.1 47.2 74.7 81.2 86.4 103.4 115.2 135.0
18.73 26.65 34.07 37.95 49.10 54.29 61.37 19.81 31.39 34.11 36.27 43.43 48.39 56.69
104.1 117.0 128.2 133.4 150.0 157.8 169.1 102.9 120.6 124.0 127.5 138.3 146.0 158.9

1Includes cogenerators. Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and state taxes.

2 Low sulfur diesel fuel. Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.

3Kerosene-type jet fuel.

4Sales weighted-average price for all grades. Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.

5Includes all electric power generators except cogenerators, which produce electricity and other useful thermal energy.

6Weighted averages of end-use fuel prices are derived from the prices in each sector and the corresponding sectoral consumption.

Sources: 1996 prices for gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel are based on prices in various issues of Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380(96/03-97/04)
(Washington, DC, 1996-97). 1996 prices for all other petroleum products are derived from EIA, State Energy Price and Expenditures Report: 1994, DOE/EIA-0376(94) (Washington, DC, June
1997). Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B,
FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B13. Natural Gas Supply and Disposition

(Trillion Cubic Feet per Year)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Production
Dry Gas Production1 ................................. 19.02 21.43 21.63 21.65 21.91 22.12 22.15 22.10
Supplemental Natural Gas2 ............................ 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11
Net Imports ........................................ 2.72 4.49 4.63 4.62 4.68 4.69 5.03 5.07
Canada ........................................... 2.76 4.36 4.32 4.32 4.37 4.38 4.46 4.50
Mexico ............................................ -0.02 -0.14 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.30 0.30
Liquefied Natural Gas ................................ -0.03 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27
Total Supply ........................................ 21.86 26.03 26.37 26.38 26.70 26.92 27.30 27.28
Consumption by Sector
Residential ......................................... 5.23 5.37 5.36 5.20 5.10 5.07 5.05 5.01
Commercial ........................................ 3.20 3.53 3.52 3.41 3.33 3.30 3.28 3.24
Industrial3 .......................................... 8.43 9.23 9.23 9.26 9.35 9.36 9.38 9.37
Electric Generators4 ................................. 2.98 5.28 5.60 5.86 6.27 6.54 6.92 6.95
Lease and Plant Fuel5 ................................ 1.25 1.42 1.43 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.46 1.46
Pipeline Fuel ....................................... 0.71 0.78 0.81 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.81 0.81
Transportation6 ..................................... 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
Total ............................................ 21.82 25.80 26.13 26.15 26.46 26.69 27.06 27.01
Discrepancy7 ....................................... 0.04 0.23 0.24 0.23 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.27

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B13. Natural Gas Supply and Disposition (Continued)

(Trillion Cubic Feet per Year)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

23.67 24.11 25.00 25.94 26.35 26.18 25.78 26.91 28.26 28.97 29.44 29.31 28.57 27.74
0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
4.72 4.87 5.03 5.23 5.37 5.66 5.68 5.07 5.53 5.70 5.83 5.79 6.10 6.10
4.58 4.52 4.69 4.89 4.99 5.01 5.03 4.95 5.12 5.29 5.41 5.38 5.41 5.41
-0.15 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.32 0.32 -0.17 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.36 0.36
0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.29 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33
28.44 29.03 30.09 31.23 31.78 31.90 31.51 32.03 33.85 34.73 35.33 35.16 34.73 33.90
5.55 5.28 5.00 4.86 4.59 4.50 4.38 5.81 5.29 5.07 4.95 4.75 4.67 4.55
3.69 3.49 3.27 3.13 2.84 2.73 2.57 3.82 3.45 3.28 3.18 3.00 2.91 2.76
9.56 9.58 9.58 9.56 9.44 9.44 9.16 9.69 9.50 9.27 9.11 9.10 9.09 9.26
6.76 7.76 9.28 10.63 11.86 12.18 12.39 9.43 12.22 13.66 14.61 14.84 14.65 14.01
1.55 1.57 1.61 1.66 1.68 1.67 1.65 1.76 1.82 1.86 1.88 1.87 1.83 1.79
0.85 0.87 0.88 0.93 0.92 0.93 0.92 0.96 1.03 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.05 1.02
0.25 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.32 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.28 0.28
28.20 28.79 29.86 31.00 31.55 31.66 31.28 31.79 33.62 34.50 35.11 34.93 34.49 33.67
0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23

1Marketed production (wet) minus extraction losses.

2Synthetic natural gas, propane air, coke oven gas, refinery gas, biomass gas, air injected for Btu stabilization, and manufactured gas commingled and distributed with natural gas.

3Includes consumption by cogenerators.

4Includes all electric power generators except cogenerators, which produce electricity and other useful thermal energy.

5Represents natural gas used in the field gathering and processing plant machinery.

6Compressed natural gas used as vehicle fuel.

7Balancing item. Natural gas lost as a result of converting flow data measured at varying temperatures and pressures to a standard temperature and pressure and the merger of different
data reporting systems which vary in scope, format, definition, and respondent type. In addition, 1996 values include net storage injections.

Btu = British thermal unit.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Figures for 1996 may differ from published data due to internal conversion factors.

Sources: 1996 supplemental natural gas: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(97/6) (Washington, DC, June 1997). 1996 imports and dry gas
production derived from: EIA, Natural Gas Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0131(96) (Washington, DC, November 1997). 1996 transportation sector consumption: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling
System runs KYBASE.D080398A,FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B. Other 1996
consumption: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook August 1997. Online. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/upd/aug97/index.html (August 21, 1997) with adjustments to end-use sector
consumption levels for consumption of natural gas by electric wholesale generators based on EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B,
FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B. Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs
KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B14. Natural Gas Prices, Margins, and Revenue

(1996 Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Prices, Margins, and Revenue 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Source Price
Average Lower 48 Wellhead Price1 ...................... 2.24 2.20 2.18 2.19 2.21 2.24 2.24 2.24
Average Import Price ................................. 1.98 2.10 2.13 2.18 2.12 2.11 2.23 2.23
Average2 ......................................... 2.21 2.18 2.17 2.19 2.20 2.21 2.24 2.24
Delivered Prices
Residential ......................................... 6.37 5.79 5.85 6.56 7.05 7.26 7.37 7.52
Commercial ........................................ 5.43 4.87 4.93 5.62 6.11 6.31 6.42 6.58
Industrial3 .......................................... 3.05 2.88 2.96 3.62 4.04 4.23 4.35 4.49
Electric Generators4 ................................. 2.70 2.68 2.75 3.40 3.82 4.08 4.16 4.33
Transportation5 ..................................... 5.57 5.99 6.06 6.71 7.18 7.38 7.48 7.62
Average6 ......................................... 4.26 3.82 3.88 4.51 4.93 5.13 5.21 5.36
Transmission and Distribution Margins7
Residential ......................................... 4.17 3.61 3.68 4.37 4.85 5.05 5.13 5.28
Commercial ........................................ 3.23 2.69 2.76 3.43 3.91 4.10 4.18 4.34
Industrial3 .......................................... 0.84 0.70 0.79 1.43 1.85 2.02 2.11 2.25
Electric Generators4 ................................. 0.49 0.50 0.58 1.21 1.62 1.86 1.92 2.09
Transportation5 ..................................... 3.37 3.81 3.88 4.52 4.98 5.17 5.24 5.38
Average6 ......................................... 2.05 1.64 1.70 2.33 2.73 2.91 2.97 3.12
Transmission and Distribution Revenue
(billion 1996 dollars)
Residential ......................................... 21.81 19.42 19.74 22.75 24.76 25.56 25.90 26.47
Commercial ........................................ 10.34 9.50 9.71 11.70 13.00 13.51 13.71 14.07
Industrial3 .......................................... 7.10 6.49 7.29 13.23 17.26 18.91 19.77 21.08
Electric Generators4 ................................. 1.47 2.67 3.24 7.09 10.18 12.18 13.30 14.52
Transportation5 ..................................... 0.04 0.65 0.66 0.77 0.84 0.87 0.88 0.90
Total ............................................ 40.76 38.72 40.64 55.54 66.04 71.02 73.56 77.04

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B14. Natural Gas Prices, Margins, and Revenue (Continued)

(1996 Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

2.33 2.38 2.62 2.78 3.01 3.01 3.03 2.62 3.02 3.50 3.71 3.74 3.67 3.53
2.39 2.40 2.66 2.82 3.00 3.05 3.07 2.76 3.11 3.60 3.82 3.84 3.74 3.57
2.34 2.39 2.63 2.79 3.00 3.02 3.04 2.64 3.03 3.52 3.73 3.76 3.69 3.54
5.72 6.83 8.09 8.83 10.50 11.10 11.98 5.97 7.99 8.89 9.42 10.39 10.88 11.70
4.75 5.84 7.08 7.82 9.51 10.12 11.03 4.70 6.68 7.57 8.10 9.07 9.57 10.42
3.06 4.08 5.21 5.91 7.47 8.04 8.90 3.35 5.21 6.03 6.53 7.45 7.94 8.75
2.88 3.89 5.10 5.83 7.44 7.97 8.82 3.28 5.08 5.94 6.44 7.37 7.85 8.66
6.72 7.82 8.99 9.66 11.25 11.82 12.67 7.37 9.21 9.95 10.44 11.31 11.77 12.56
3.87 4.85 5.96 6.63 8.18 8.72 9.57 4.07 5.85 6.66 7.14 8.05 8.54 9.35
3.38 4.44 5.46 6.04 7.50 8.08 8.95 3.33 4.95 5.37 5.69 6.64 7.19 8.17
2.40 3.45 4.45 5.03 6.50 7.09 7.99 2.06 3.65 4.05 4.37 5.32 5.89 6.88
0.72 1.69 2.58 3.12 4.46 5.02 5.86 0.71 2.18 2.51 2.81 3.70 4.25 5.21
0.54 1.51 2.47 3.04 4.43 4.95 5.78 0.64 2.05 2.42 2.72 3.61 4.17 5.13
4.38 5.43 6.36 6.87 8.25 8.80 9.64 4.73 6.17 6.43 6.72 7.56 8.08 9.02
1.52 2.46 3.33 3.84 5.17 5.70 6.53 1.43 2.82 3.14 3.42 4.30 4.85 5.81
18.76 23.47 27.32 29.37 34.42 36.38 39.19 19.32 26.22 27.21 28.20 31.53 33.61 37.14
8.86 12.05 14.55 15.77 18.46 19.38 20.55 7.87 12.57 13.27 13.89 15.94 17.13 18.98
6.89 16.22 24.73 29.83 42.14 47.34 53.72 6.84 20.68 23.26 25.59 33.65 38.64 48.29
3.62 11.68 22.96 32.35 52.56 60.35 71.58 5.99 25.01 33.02 39.69 53.63 61.01 71.82
1.08 1.30 1.45 1.54 1.75 1.83 1.93 1.54 1.90 1.95 2.00 2.17 2.30 2.51
39.21 64.72 91.01 108.86 149.33 165.28 186.97 41.56 86.39 98.71 109.38 136.93 152.70 178.74

1Represents lower 48 onshore and offshore supplies.

2Quantity-weighted average of the average lower 48 wellhead price and the average price of imports at the U.S. border.

3Includes consumption by cogenerators.

4Includes all electric power generators except cogenerators, which produce electricity and other useful thermal energy.

5Compressed natural gas used as a vehicle fuel. Price includes estimated motor vehicle fuel taxes.

6Weighted average prices and margins. Weights used are the sectoral consumption values excluding lease, plant, and pipeline fuel.

7Within the table, "transmission and distribution" margins equal the difference between the delivered price and the source price (average of the wellhead price and the price of imports at
the U.S. border) of natural gas and, thus, reflect the total cost of bringing natural gas to market. When the term "transmission and distribution" margins is used in today's natural gas market,
it generally does not include the cost of independent natural gas marketers or costs associated with aggregation of supplies, provisions of storage, and other services. As used here, the term
includes the cost of all services and the cost of pipeline fuel used in compressor stations.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 1996 industrial delivered prices based on Energy Information Administration (EIA), Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey 1991. 1996 residential and commercial delivered
prices, average lower 48 wellhead price, and average import price: EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(97/06) (Washington, DC, June 1997). Other 1995 values, other 1996 values,
and projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B,
FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B15. Oil and Gas Supply

Production and Supply 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Crude Oil
Lower 48 Average Wellhead Price1
(1996 dollars per barrel) .............................. 19.41 19.78 19.69 19.54 19.44 19.39 19.32 19.31
Production (million barrels per day)2
U.S. Total ........................................... 6.48 6.02 6.01 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
Lower 48 Onshore .................................... 3.76 3.39 3.39 3.38 3.38 3.38 3.38 3.38
Conventional ....................................... 3.15 2.76 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75
Enhanced Oil Recovery .............................. 0.61 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63
Lower 48 Offshore .................................... 1.32 1.69 1.69 1.69 1.69 1.68 1.68 1.69
Alaska ............................................. 1.40 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93
Lower 48 End of Year Reserves (billion barrels) ........... 16.82 15.28 15.25 15.24 15.23 15.23 15.22 15.23
Natural Gas
Lower 48 Average Wellhead Price1
(1996 dollars per thousand cubic feet) .................. 2.24 2.20 2.18 2.19 2.21 2.24 2.24 2.24
Production (trillion cubic feet)3
U.S. Total ........................................... 19.01 21.43 21.63 21.65 21.91 22.12 22.15 22.10
Lower 48 Onshore .................................... 13.07 14.49 14.68 14.67 14.87 15.06 15.13 15.02
Associated-Dissolved4 ............................... 1.84 1.53 1.52 1.52 1.52 1.52 1.52 1.52
Non-Associated ..................................... 11.23 12.96 13.16 13.15 13.35 13.54 13.60 13.50
Conventional ...................................... 7.96 9.09 9.17 9.24 9.34 9.45 9.43 9.43
Unconventional .................................... 3.27 3.88 3.99 3.91 4.02 4.09 4.18 4.07
Lower 48 Offshore .................................... 5.50 6.41 6.42 6.45 6.51 6.53 6.50 6.55
Associated-Dissolved4 ............................... 0.80 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92
Non-Associated ..................................... 4.70 5.49 5.50 5.53 5.59 5.61 5.58 5.63
Alaska ............................................. 0.43 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53
Lower 48 End of Year Reserves (trillion cubic feet) ........ 157.23 172.31 171.86 171.61 171.58 171.03 170.87 171.25
Supplemental Gas Supplies (trillion cubic feet)5 ........... 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11
Total Lower 48 Wells (thousands) ....................... 22.07 28.12 28.06 28.08 28.04 28.06 28.16 28.15

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B15. Oil and Gas Supply (Continued)

Projections Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

20.24 19.42 18.57 18.09 17.35 17.00 16.68 20.70 19.10 18.79 18.67 18.05 17.73 17.35
5.86 5.82 5.76 5.74 5.70 5.68 5.67 5.18 5.00 4.94 4.93 4.84 4.78 4.73
3.50 3.47 3.42 3.40 3.38 3.36 3.35 3.39 3.24 3.17 3.16 3.06 3.02 2.98
2.76 2.74 2.71 2.70 2.69 2.67 2.67 2.75 2.65 2.62 2.61 2.56 2.53 2.50
0.74 0.73 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.65 0.59 0.55 0.55 0.51 0.49 0.48
1.62 1.60 1.59 1.59 1.58 1.57 1.57 1.31 1.29 1.30 1.31 1.30 1.30 1.29
0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47
15.60 15.49 15.29 15.20 15.09 15.02 14.97 14.95 14.32 14.03 13.97 13.62 13.43 13.27
2.33 2.38 2.62 2.78 3.01 3.01 3.03 2.62 3.02 3.50 3.71 3.74 3.67 3.53
23.67 24.11 25.00 25.94 26.35 26.18 25.77 26.91 28.26 28.97 29.44 29.31 28.57 27.74
16.31 16.73 17.39 18.14 18.52 18.39 18.09 18.87 19.75 20.34 20.55 20.56 20.01 19.48
1.45 1.45 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.32 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.29 1.29 1.28
14.86 15.28 15.94 16.70 17.08 16.95 16.65 17.55 18.45 19.03 19.24 19.26 18.72 18.20
9.99 10.11 10.67 11.05 11.33 11.27 11.19 12.08 12.65 13.00 13.19 13.13 12.83 12.44
4.86 5.17 5.28 5.65 5.75 5.68 5.46 5.47 5.80 6.03 6.05 6.13 5.88 5.76
6.80 6.82 7.06 7.25 7.28 7.24 7.13 7.43 7.90 8.02 8.29 8.14 7.96 7.66
0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84
5.88 5.91 6.15 6.34 6.37 6.34 6.23 6.58 7.06 7.18 7.45 7.30 7.12 6.82
0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.62 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.60 0.60
180.45 179.42 179.51 178.60 178.95 178.77 180.42 172.73 175.74 184.71 189.12 191.43 192.82 193.82
0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
30.34 30.23 30.98 31.46 32.12 32.06 31.91 33.63 34.68 36.90 37.85 37.67 37.08 35.92

Ft. = feet.
1Represents lower 48 onshore and offshore supplies.
2Includes lease condensate.
3Market production (wet) minus extraction losses.
4Gas which occurs in crude oil reserves either as free gas (associated) or as gas in solution with crude oil (dissolved).
5Synthetic natural gas, propane air, coke oven gas, refinery gas, biomass gas, air injected for Btu stabilization, and manufactured gas commingled and distributed with natural gas.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Figures for 1996 may differ from published data due to internal conversion factors.
Sources: 1996 crude oil lower 48 average wellhead price: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. 1996 total wells completed: EIA, Office


of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. 1996 lower 48 onshore, lower 48 offshore, Alaska crude oil production: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0340(96) (Washington, DC,
June 1997). 1996 natural gas lower 48 average wellhead price, Alaska and total natural gas production, and supplemental gas supplies. EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(97/06)
(Washington, DC, June 1997). Other 1996 values: EIA, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A,
FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B16. Coal Supply, Disposition, and Prices

(Million Short Tons per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Production1
Appalachia......................................... 452 465 451 440 415 398 396 378
Interior ............................................ 173 148 147 137 142 146 134 129
West ............................................. 439 629 584 513 432 402 394 360
East of the Mississippi ............................... 564 551 537 524 516 498 494 480
West of the Mississippi ............................... 500 691 645 565 473 447 429 387
Total ............................................ 1064 1242 1182 1090 989 946 924 867
Net Imports
Imports ............................................ 7 8 6 6 6 4 4 4
Exports ............................................ 90 104 89 89 89 83 83 83
Total ............................................. -83 -96 -83 -83 -83 -78 -78 -78
Total Supply2 ....................................... 981 1146 1099 1006 906 867 845 789
Consumption by Sector
Residential and Commercial ........................... 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Industrial3 .......................................... 70 77 76 63 56 54 53 52
Coke Plants........................................ 32 28 28 28 28 28 28 28
Electric Generators4 ................................. 896 1034 989 905 829 786 761 729
Total ............................................ 1003 1146 1099 1002 918 873 847 814
Discrepancy and Stock Change5 . ...................... -23 0 -0 4 -12 -6 -2 -25
Average Minemouth Price
(1996 dollars per short ton) ............................ 18.50 15.03 15.39 15.78 16.10 16.13 16.17 16.36
(1996 dollars per million Btu) ........................... 0.87 0.72 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76
Delivered Prices (1996 dollars per short ton)6
Industrial .......................................... 32.28 28.68 31.28 56.50 72.61 78.62 83.09 87.93
Coke Plants........................................ 47.33 43.77 47.09 77.15 96.41 103.35 108.84 114.62
Electric Generators
(1996 dollars per short ton) ........................... 26.45 23.37 25.96 49.51 64.24 69.51 74.07 79.18
(1996 dollars per million Btu).......................... 1.29 1.17 1.28 2.42 3.13 3.39 3.60 3.81
Average ......................................... 27.52 24.23 26.87 50.73 65.73 71.15 75.78 80.95
Exports7 .......................................... 40.77 36.27 37.03 36.96 36.96 37.30 37.21 37.15

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B16. Coal Supply, Disposition, and Prices (Continued)

(Million Short Tons per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

479 401 357 306 240 222 196 458 385 295 238 146 129 111
135 122 112 89 57 46 35 128 72 59 45 19 14 11
673 510 316 229 121 101 82 791 349 184 123 42 30 21
555 479 442 378 292 264 228 545 442 344 274 160 139 119
732 553 343 246 126 104 85 831 364 194 131 46 33 24
1287 1032 785 624 418 369 313 1376 805 538 405 207 172 144
8 4 4 4 1 1 1 8 4 4 4 1 1 1
113 89 89 89 76 76 76 130 93 93 93 75 75 75
-105 -85 -85 -85 -75 -75 -75 -122 -89 -89 -89 -74 -74 -74
1181 948 700 539 344 294 238 1254 716 449 316 133 98 70
7 6 5 5 5 5 4 7 6 5 5 5 5 4
79 61 51 48 41 39 37 82 61 59 57 50 45 41
26 24 23 23 22 22 22 22 16 15 15 14 14 14
1065 854 614 460 276 227 172 1144 630 373 235 66 34 11
1177 946 694 537 344 293 235 1254 713 452 312 134 99 71
4 2 7 3 -0 1 3 0 3 -3 4 -1 -0 -1
14.29 14.72 15.81 16.42 17.53 17.90 18.29 12.53 14.29 15.51 16.24 18.58 19.63 20.50
0.69 0.70 0.73 0.75 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.61 0.67 0.70 0.72 0.79 0.82 0.84
27.58 65.34 100.54 119.45 171.05 193.69 224.73 25.83 81.21 94.49 104.28 136.65 159.35 195.43
42.45 87.78 129.91 152.49 213.80 240.69 277.69 40.36 107.18 123.32 135.28 175.42 202.70 246.16
22.20 57.03 90.53 109.56 162.69 185.47 214.75 19.56 71.95 85.72 95.33 129.43 156.60 197.61
1.11 2.81 4.37 5.23 7.53 8.55 9.95 1.00 3.48 4.07 4.52 6.04 7.10 8.80
23.02 58.36 92.59 112.28 167.07 190.84 222.39 20.33 73.57 88.15 98.93 137.30 164.92 206.64
34.98 35.97 35.66 35.51 36.21 36.13 36.01 32.52 33.40 33.07 32.82 34.20 34.04 33.84

1Includes anthracite, bituminous coal, and lignite.

2Production plus net imports and net storage withdrawals.

3Includes consumption by cogenerators.

4Includes all electric power generators except cogenerators, which produce electricity and other useful thermal energy.

5Balancing item: the sum of production, net imports, and net storage minus total consumption.

6Sectoral prices weighted by consumption tonnage; weighted average excludes residential/ commercial prices and export free-alongside-ship (f.a.s.) prices.

7 F.a.s. price at U.S. port of exit.

Btu = British thermal unit.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 1996 data derived from: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Coal Industry Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0584(96) (Washington, DC, November 1997). Projections: EIA,
AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and
FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B17. Renewable Energy Generating Capability and Generation

(Thousand Megawatts, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Capacity and Generation 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Electric Generators1
(excluding cogenerators)
Net Summer Capability
Conventional Hydropower ............................. 77.66 79.73 79.73 79.74 79.74 79.74 80.69 80.70
Geothermal2 ....................................... 3.02 2.76 2.92 2.99 3.11 3.32 3.39 3.74
Municipal Solid Waste3 ............................... 3.26 3.66 3.66 3.66 3.66 3.66 3.66 3.66
Wood and Other Biomass4 ............................ 1.64 1.76 1.76 2.25 1.93 2.25 2.18 2.18
Solar Thermal ...................................... 0.36 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38
Solar Photovoltaic ................................... 0.01 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
Wind ............................................. 1.85 2.75 2.75 3.44 4.22 5.35 5.32 6.27
Total ............................................ 87.81 91.10 91.26 92.53 93.12 94.78 95.69 97.00
Generation (billion kilowatthours)
Conventional Hydropower ............................. 346.28 312.51 312.50 312.55 312.53 312.54 317.00 317.03
Geothermal2 ....................................... 15.70 16.12 17.25 17.76 18.61 20.02 20.52 23.01
Municipal Solid Waste3 ............................... 18.85 24.54 24.54 24.53 24.53 24.53 24.53 24.53
Wood and Other Biomass4 ............................ 7.27 8.72 17.72 21.00 18.30 20.20 19.67 19.51
Solar Thermal ...................................... 0.82 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96
Solar Photovoltaic ................................... 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20
Wind ............................................. 3.17 6.17 6.17 8.03 10.14 13.40 13.26 15.80
Total ............................................ 392.09 369.22 379.33 385.03 385.27 391.84 396.14 401.04
Cogenerators5
Net Summer Capability
Municipal Solid Waste ................................ 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44
Biomass ........................................... 5.44 6.42 6.41 6.38 6.35 6.34 6.34 6.32
Total ............................................ 5.87 6.86 6.85 6.83 6.80 6.78 6.78 6.77
Generation (billion kilowatthours)
Municipal Solid Waste ................................ 2.21 2.27 2.27 2.27 2.27 2.27 2.27 2.27
Biomass ........................................... 39.40 44.47 44.42 44.37 44.21 44.12 44.09 44.01
Total ............................................ 41.61 46.74 46.69 46.64 46.48 46.39 46.36 46.28

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B17. Renewable Energy Generating Capability and Generation (Continued)

Thousand Megawatts, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

79.78 79.78 79.80 79.80 80.74 80.74 81.84 79.78 79.79 79.80 79.80 80.74 80.78 81.92
2.80 2.98 3.13 3.51 3.76 4.68 4.75 3.02 3.77 4.26 4.95 5.76 6.94 7.81
4.02 4.01 3.99 3.99 3.96 3.95 3.95 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.41 4.42 4.43 4.44
1.76 1.80 2.91 2.70 4.54 4.93 5.32 1.76 2.74 11.81 11.95 26.13 35.27 43.99
0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54
0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.27 0.39 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.71 0.91
2.75 4.47 7.54 9.44 12.47 13.19 18.17 3.52 15.87 31.31 38.08 43.57 44.06 51.37
91.77 93.71 98.01 100.10 106.14 108.20 114.85 93.60 107.68 132.69 140.29 161.72 172.72 190.97
313.01 312.97 312.99 312.96 317.40 317.38 321.93 313.15 313.10 313.12 313.12 317.57 317.66 322.35
16.79 18.04 19.04 21.72 23.48 29.88 30.37 19.87 25.08 28.49 33.35 39.02 47.23 53.35
27.05 26.96 26.81 26.78 26.59 26.53 26.49 29.83 29.76 29.77 29.75 29.76 29.83 29.88
8.72 17.64 23.63 21.01 31.91 34.73 36.40 8.72 22.52 83.48 83.07 180.64 244.44 305.05
1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47
0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.73 1.01 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.81 2.30
6.17 11.20 19.38 24.73 33.54 35.72 48.87 8.70 43.58 89.81 108.33 122.06 123.41 142.77
373.50 388.56 403.61 408.95 434.68 446.12 466.22 383.19 436.96 547.60 570.54 691.97 765.86 857.17
0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45
6.70 6.68 6.62 6.60 6.49 6.48 6.44 6.84 6.96 6.94 6.93 6.92 6.93 6.94
7.14 7.13 7.07 7.05 6.93 6.92 6.89 7.29 7.41 7.39 7.38 7.37 7.38 7.39
2.30 2.30 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32
47.26 47.40 47.04 46.94 45.96 45.90 45.62 48.89 50.23 50.30 50.20 50.22 50.36 50.49
49.56 49.69 49.34 49.23 48.25 48.19 47.91 51.21 52.55 52.62 52.51 52.53 52.68 52.80

1Includes grid-connected utilities and nonutilities other than cogenerators. These nonutility facilities include small power producers, exempt wholesale generators and generators at industrial
and commercial facilities which do not produce steam for other uses.

2Includes hydrothermal resources only (hot water and steam).

3Includes landfill gas.

4Includes projections for energy crops after 2010.

5Cogenerators produce electricity and other useful thermal energy.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Net summer capability has been estimated for nonutility generators for AEO98. Net summer capability is used
to be consistent with electric utility capacity estimates. Data for electric utility capacity are the most recently available as of August 25, 1997. Additional retirements are also determined on
the basis of the size and age of the units. Therefore, capacity estimates may differ from other Energy Information Administration sources.

Sources: 1996 electric utility capability: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Form EIA-860 "Annual Electric Utility Report," 1996 nonutility and cogenerator capability: Form EIA-867,
"Annual Nonutility Power Producer Report." 1996 generation: EIA, Annual Energy Review 1996, DOE/EIA-0384(96) (Washington, DC, July 1997). Projections: EIA, AEO98 National Energy
Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B18. Renewable Energy Consumption by Sector and Source1

(Quadrillion Btu per Year)

Sector and Source 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Marketed Renewable Energy2
Residential ......................................... 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61
Wood ............................................. 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61
Commercial3 ....................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Biomass ........................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Industrial4 .......................................... 1.82 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.09
Conventional Hydroelectric ............................ 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Municipal Solid Waste ................................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Biomass ........................................... 1.78 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.05
Transportation ...................................... 0.10 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13
Ethanol used in E855 ................................. 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
Ethanol used in Gasoline Blending ...................... 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
Electric Generators6 ................................. 4.40 4.22 4.33 4.40 4.42 4.52 4.58 4.68
Conventional Hydroelectric ............................ 3.56 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.26 3.26
Geothermal ........................................ 0.43 0.46 0.49 0.51 0.54 0.59 0.61 0.68
Municipal Solid Waste ................................ 0.30 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39
Biomass ........................................... 0.06 0.08 0.16 0.19 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.17
Solar Thermal ...................................... 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Solar Photovoltaic ................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wind ............................................. 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.14 0.14 0.16
Total Marketed Renewable Energy ..................... 6.94 7.12 7.23 7.29 7.26 7.35 7.41 7.51
Non-Marketed Renewable Energy7
Selected Consumption
Residential ........................................ 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Solar Hot Water Heating .............................. 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Geothermal Heat Pumps .............................. 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Commercial ........................................ 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Solar Thermal ...................................... 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B18. Renewable Energy Consumption by Sector and Source1 (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu per Year)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

0.61 0.61 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67
0.61 0.61 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2.25 2.25 2.24 2.23 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.35 2.39 2.39 2.39 2.39 2.39 2.40
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2.21 2.21 2.20 2.20 2.15 2.15 2.13 2.31 2.35 2.36 2.35 2.35 2.36 2.36
0.23 0.19 0.23 0.22 0.23 0.39 0.53 0.31 0.29 0.38 0.40 0.57 0.69 0.69
0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13
0.13 0.09 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.30 0.45 0.18 0.15 0.24 0.26 0.44 0.56 0.56
4.30 4.47 4.63 4.75 5.05 5.31 5.53 4.47 5.11 6.23 6.58 7.85 8.71 9.72
3.22 3.22 3.22 3.22 3.26 3.26 3.31 3.22 3.22 3.22 3.22 3.26 3.27 3.31
0.49 0.53 0.56 0.64 0.72 0.93 0.95 0.59 0.75 0.85 1.01 1.23 1.50 1.71
0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.42 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48
0.08 0.16 0.21 0.19 0.28 0.31 0.32 0.08 0.20 0.74 0.74 1.61 2.18 2.72
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.06 0.12 0.20 0.25 0.34 0.37 0.50 0.09 0.45 0.92 1.11 1.25 1.27 1.47
7.39 7.52 7.71 7.83 8.10 8.52 8.87 7.75 8.42 9.65 10.01 11.47 12.45 13.47
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04

1Actual heat rates used to determine fuel consumption for all renewable fuels except hydropower, solar, and wind. Consumption at hydroelectric, solar, and wind facilities determined by
using the fossil fuel equivalent of 10,280 Btu per kilowatthour.

2Includes nonelectric renewable energy groups for which the energy source is bought and sold in the marketplace, although all transactions may not necessarily be marketed, and marketed
renewable energy inputs for electricity entering the marketplace on the electric power grid. Excludes electricity imports; see Table B8.

3Value is less than 0.005 quadrillion Btu per year and rounds to zero.

4Includes all electricity production by industrial and other cogenerators for the grid and for own use.

5Excludes motor gasoline component of E85.

6Includes renewable energy delivered to the grid from electric utilities and nonutilities. Renewable energy used in generating electricity for own use is included in the individual sectoral
electricity energy consumption values.

7Includes selected renewable energy consumption data for which the energy is not bought or sold, either directly or indirectly as an input to marketed energy. The Energy Information
Administration does not estimate or project total consumption of nonmarketed renewable energy.

Btu = British thermal unit.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 1996 electric generators: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Form EIA-860, "Annual Electric Utility Report" and EIA, Form EIA-867, "Annual Nonutility Power Producer
Report." 1996 ethanol: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0340(96/1) (Washington, DC, June 1997). Other 1996: EIA, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Projections:
EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and
FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B19. Carbon Emissions by Sector and Source

(Million Metric Tons per Year)

Sector and Source 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

Residential
Petroleum ......................................... 27.3 24.0 24.0 23.4 23.1 23.0 22.9 22.8
Natural Gas ........................................ 77.4 79.6 79.4 77.1 75.6 75.1 74.8 74.3
Coal .............................................. 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
Electricity.......................................... 179.9 217.6 212.3 199.3 187.5 181.0 178.6 174.4
Total ............................................ 286.0 322.6 317.1 301.0 287.3 280.2 277.4 272.5
Commercial
Petroleum ......................................... 15.3 12.6 12.6 12.2 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.8
Natural Gas ........................................ 47.4 52.3 52.2 50.5 49.3 48.8 48.6 48.1
Coal .............................................. 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
Electricity.......................................... 164.8 196.4 191.7 179.5 168.0 161.4 159.6 155.5
Total ............................................ 229.6 263.6 258.8 244.5 231.5 224.4 222.2 217.5
Industrial1
Petroleum ......................................... 104.8 110.5 110.1 109.7 108.2 107.5 107.0 106.6
Natural Gas2 ....................................... 142.8 155.9 156.0 156.5 158.0 158.3 158.6 158.4
Coal .............................................. 59.3 66.0 65.5 58.2 54.0 52.8 52.2 51.6
Electricity.......................................... 169.2 203.4 198.4 188.3 178.0 171.5 169.2 164.9
Total ............................................ 476.1 535.7 530.0 512.8 498.2 490.0 487.0 481.6
Transportation
Petroleum3 ......................................... 457.9 549.4 548.7 545.6 543.0 541.2 539.9 538.5
Natural Gas4 ....................................... 10.5 14.0 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.5
Other5 ............................................ 0.0 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Electricity.......................................... 2.8 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5
Total3 ............................................ 471.2 569.0 568.7 565.4 562.5 560.6 559.5 557.9
Total Carbon Emissions6
Petroleum3 ......................................... 605.3 696.4 695.4 691.0 686.3 683.6 681.6 679.7
Natural Gas ........................................ 278.1 301.9 302.1 298.6 297.2 296.5 296.5 295.2
Coal .............................................. 62.8 69.7 69.2 61.7 57.4 56.1 55.5 54.8
Other5 ............................................ 0.0 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Electricity.......................................... 516.7 621.5 606.4 571.0 537.1 517.5 511.0 498.3
Total3 ............................................ 1462.9 1690.9 1674.6 1623.7 1579.5 1555.2 1546.1 1529.6
Electric Generators7
Petroleum ......................................... 15.5 8.8 8.4 7.7 7.3 7.0 6.5 7.2
Natural Gas ........................................ 40.3 77.8 82.5 86.3 92.3 96.3 101.8 102.3
Coal .............................................. 460.9 534.9 515.5 476.9 437.5 414.3 402.7 388.9
Total ............................................ 516.7 621.5 606.4 571.0 537.1 517.5 511.0 498.3
Total Carbon Emissions8
Petroleum3 ......................................... 620.8 705.2 703.8 698.7 693.6 690.5 688.1 686.9
Natural Gas ........................................ 318.4 379.7 384.6 384.9 389.4 392.8 398.3 397.5
Coal .............................................. 523.7 604.6 584.7 538.7 494.9 470.4 458.2 443.7
Other5 ............................................ 0.0 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Total3 ............................................ 1462.9 1690.9 1674.6 1623.7 1579.5 1555.2 1546.1 1529.6
Carbon Emissions
(tons per person) ................................... 5.5 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B19. Carbon Emissions by Sector and Source (Continued)

(Million Metric Tons per Year)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

23.3 22.5 21.7 21.4 20.5 20.0 19.5 22.2 21.0 20.8 20.6 19.8 19.3 18.6
82.3 78.3 74.2 72.0 68.0 66.8 64.9 86.1 78.4 75.1 73.4 70.4 69.2 67.4
1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9
230.3 198.8 164.7 143.9 117.9 111.1 101.9 265.7 190.3 149.9 129.5 99.2 91.1 81.3
337.3 300.7 261.7 238.3 207.3 198.7 187.1 375.4 290.8 246.8 224.4 190.3 180.5 168.1
12.5 12.0 11.5 11.3 10.7 10.4 10.0 12.1 11.4 11.2 11.1 10.7 10.4 10.0
54.6 51.7 48.4 46.4 42.1 40.5 38.1 56.6 51.1 48.6 47.1 44.4 43.1 40.9
2.5 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7
207.6 178.0 145.8 126.3 101.1 94.4 85.6 227.3 160.4 125.3 107.8 81.7 74.4 65.8
277.2 244.1 207.9 186.1 155.7 147.1 135.3 298.6 225.2 187.4 168.1 138.7 129.8 118.3
115.7 113.7 113.1 113.5 110.5 108.6 109.2 120.7 121.9 124.8 127.0 125.5 123.6 120.2
162.4 163.1 163.7 164.1 162.7 162.5 158.2 167.4 165.6 162.6 160.7 160.5 159.7 161.6
67.1 56.4 50.1 48.4 43.9 42.7 41.4 66.9 53.6 51.8 50.4 46.1 43.7 41.1
214.3 185.6 154.0 135.6 110.1 104.2 95.2 226.6 163.8 128.5 110.8 84.7 77.7 69.5
559.4 518.7 480.9 461.5 427.3 418.0 403.9 581.6 504.9 467.7 449.0 416.8 404.7 392.4
592.9 580.9 561.7 552.6 527.6 514.4 495.7 644.1 618.8 606.6 598.9 574.6 562.5 547.2
16.2 16.4 16.5 17.1 16.8 16.8 16.6 19.0 19.7 20.2 20.3 20.1 19.8 19.3
2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4
5.1 4.6 3.8 3.4 2.8 2.6 2.4 6.4 4.8 3.8 3.3 2.5 2.3 2.0
616.7 604.5 584.5 575.6 549.6 536.2 517.1 673.2 647.1 634.3 626.3 600.8 588.2 571.9
744.3 729.1 708.1 698.7 669.3 653.3 634.3 799.1 773.1 763.5 757.6 730.6 715.9 696.0
315.5 309.5 302.8 299.7 289.7 286.6 277.8 329.0 314.8 306.5 301.6 295.4 291.8 289.1
70.9 59.8 53.3 51.4 46.7 45.4 43.9 70.8 57.0 55.0 53.6 49.0 46.5 43.6
2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4
657.4 567.0 468.3 409.1 331.9 312.4 285.0 726.0 519.4 407.5 351.3 268.0 245.5 218.6
1790.6 1667.9 1535.0 1461.5 1340.0 1300.0 1243.4 1928.7 1668.0 1536.2 1467.8 1346.7 1303.3 1250.8
7.5 6.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 6.9 7.9 5.9 3.8 4.6 9.3 13.8 10.7 6.1
99.5 114.2 136.5 156.4 174.5 179.3 182.3 138.8 179.8 201.0 215.0 218.4 215.6 206.1
550.4 446.6 326.7 247.7 152.3 126.1 94.8 581.3 335.8 201.9 127.0 35.9 19.2 6.4
657.4 567.0 468.3 409.1 331.9 312.4 285.0 726.0 519.4 407.5 351.3 268.0 245.5 218.6
751.8 735.3 713.2 703.8 674.4 660.3 642.2 805.0 776.9 768.1 767.0 744.4 726.6 702.1
415.0 423.7 439.3 456.1 464.2 465.9 460.2 467.8 494.6 507.5 516.5 513.8 507.4 495.3
621.3 506.4 379.9 299.1 199.1 171.5 138.7 652.1 392.8 256.9 180.5 84.9 65.7 50.0
2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4
1790.6 1667.9 1535.0 1461.5 1340.0 1300.0 1243.4 1928.7 1668.0 1536.2 1467.8 1346.7 1303.3 1250.8
6.0 5.6 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.2 6.0 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.9

1Includes consumption by cogenerators.

2Includes lease and plant fuel.

3This includes international bunker fuels which, by convention, are excluded from the international accounting of carbon emissions. In the years from 1989 through 1996, international bunker
fuels account for 22 to 24 million metric tons of carbon annually.

4Includes pipeline fuel natural gas and compressed natural gas used as vehicle fuel.

5Includes methanol and liquid hydrogen.

6Measured for delivered energy consumption.

7Includes all electric power generators except cogenerators, which produce electricity and other useful thermal energy.

8Measured for total energy consumption, with emissions for electric power generators distributed to the primary fuels.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: Carbon coefficients from Energy Information Administration, (EIA) Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1996, DOE/EIA-0573(96) (Washington, DC, October 1997).
1996 consumption estimates based on: EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook, August 1997, Online. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/upd/aug97/index.html (August 21, 1997). Projections:
EIA, AEO98 National Energy Modeling System run KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and
FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B20. Macroeconomic Indicators

(Billion 1992 Chain-Weighted Dollars, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Indicators 1996
Projections
2005
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

GDP Chain-Type Price Index
(1992=1.000) ........................................ 1.102 1.380 1.382 1.393 1.401 1.404 1.406 1.408
Real Gross Domestic Product .......................... 6928 8525 8520 8495 8474 8464 8462 8454
Real Consumption ..................................... 4714 5738 5735 5730 5724 5721 5722 5719
Real Investment ...................................... 1069 1513 1509 1488 1473 1464 1462 1457
Real Government Spending ............................. 1258 1386 1386 1385 1384 1383 1383 1383
Real Exports ......................................... 857 1753 1753 1749 1746 1745 1744 1744
Real Imports ......................................... 971 1859 1857 1854 1853 1851 1852 1852
Real Disposable Personal Income ....................... 5077 6206 6205 6218 6224 6225 6230 6228
AA Utility Bond Rate (percent) ........................... 7.57 7.14 7.17 7.39 7.55 7.62 7.66 7.70
Real Yield on Government 10 Year Bonds
(percent) ........................................... 4.99 3.78 3.79 3.89 3.97 4.00 4.02 4.04
Energy Intensity
(thousand Btu per 1992 dollar of GDP)
Delivered Energy ..................................... 10.14 9.36 9.36 9.26 9.18 9.15 9.13 9.11
Total Energy ........................................ 13.54 12.42 12.37 12.17 12.00 11.94 11.92 11.86
Consumer Price Index (1982-84=1.00) ..................... 1.57 2.04 2.04 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.08 2.09
Unemployment Rate (percent) ........................... 5.38 5.70 5.72 5.80 5.87 5.91 5.91 5.94
Unit Sales of Light-Duty Vehicles (million) ................ 15.10 15.69 15.60 15.19 14.91 14.79 14.73 14.64
Millions of People
Population with Armed Forces Overseas .................. 266.1 287.1 287.1 287.1 287.1 287.1 287.1 287.1
Population (aged 16 and over) .......................... 204.2 223.8 223.8 223.8 223.8 223.8 223.8 223.8
Labor Force ......................................... 133.9 149.7 149.7 149.7 149.6 149.6 149.6 149.6

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table B20. Macroeconomic Indicators (Continued)

(Billion 1992 Chain-Weighted Dollars, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Projections
2010 2020
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below
Reference
Case
24 Percent
Above
14 Percent
Above
9 Percent
Above
1990 Level
3 Percent
Below
7 Percent
Below

1.606 1.628 1.645 1.655 1.679 1.688 1.701 2.281 2.303 2.308 2.317 2.327 2.333 2.337
9429 9333 9268 9241 9137 9102 9032 10865 10815 10808 10796 10799 10793 10782
6347 6292 6258 6248 6207 6198 6160 7599 7573 7582 7583 7615 7631 7636
1745 1714 1716 1719 1692 1682 1662 2100 2101 2099 2098 2101 2100 2095
1499 1486 1473 1468 1454 1450 1442 1636 1622 1623 1622 1623 1622 1621
2337 2318 2296 2283 2248 2232 2215 3333 3316 3296 3282 3252 3233 3218
2519 2509 2520 2532 2541 2550 2548 4123 4153 4179 4195 4247 4274 4290
6891 6835 6794 6783 6752 6751 6719 8192 8144 8151 8153 8188 8209 8214
7.31 7.42 7.38 7.36 7.43 7.47 7.66 8.50 8.37 8.33 8.34 8.30 8.31 8.27
3.58 3.55 3.64 3.71 3.74 3.81 3.95 4.10 4.15 4.17 4.20 4.29 4.33 4.33
8.98 8.82 8.63 8.54 8.30 8.21 8.08 8.31 7.99 7.87 7.79 7.59 7.49 7.36
11.80 11.42 11.00 10.78 10.43 10.33 10.16 10.78 10.05 9.78 9.62 9.35 9.27 9.17
2.43 2.46 2.49 2.51 2.56 2.57 2.60 3.56 3.61 3.62 3.63 3.65 3.66 3.68
5.58 6.06 6.38 6.51 7.01 7.16 7.49 5.78 5.90 5.91 5.94 5.86 5.84 5.85
16.57 16.06 15.96 15.96 15.61 15.48 15.16 17.04 16.69 16.70 16.66 16.69 16.68 16.51
298.9 298.9 298.9 298.9 298.9 298.9 298.9 323.5 323.5 323.5 323.5 323.5 323.5 323.5
235.4 235.4 235.4 235.4 235.4 235.4 235.4 255.6 255.6 255.6 255.6 255.6 255.6 255.6
156.5 156.0 155.6 155.4 154.9 154.7 154.4 162.2 162.0 161.9 161.9 161.9 161.8 161.8

GDP = Gross domestic product.
Btu = British thermal unit.
Source: Simulations of the Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) Model of the U.S. Economy.


Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Appendix C
Summary Comparison of Analyses




Table C1. Summary of the WEFA Analysis

Parameter 1996
Reference
Case in
2010
1990-7%
Case in
2010
Reference
Case in
2020
1990-7%
Case in
2020

Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton) ................ NA NA 265 NA 360
Gross Domestic Product (Billion 1992 Chain-Weighted Dollars) ...... 6,928 9,314 9,013 11,478 11,245
Total Carbon Emissions (Million Metric Tons) ............... 1,463 1,700 1,247 1,953 1,231
Per Capita Carbon Emissions (Metric Tons per Person) .......... 5.5 5.7 4.2 6.0 3.8
Real Disposable Personal Income (Billion 1992 Dollars) .......... 5,077 6,942 6,840 8,671 8,596
Real Investment (Billion 1992 Dollars)a ................... 1,067 1,527 1,468 1,923 1,894
Real Consumption (Billion 1992 Dollars) .................. 4,714 6,303 6,152 7,705 7,651
Light-Duty Vehicle Sales (Millions) ..................... 15.1 16.7 16.2 18.3 18.3
Primary Energy Intensity (Thousand Btu per 1992 Dollar of GDP) ..... 13.57 11.08 9.30 9.98 7.50
Delivered Energy Intensity (Thousand Btu per 1992 Dollar of GDP) .... 10.16 8.24 7.20 7.45 6.05
World Oil Price (Refiners Acquisition Price, 1996 Dollars per Barrel) . . . 20.48 19.77 17.58 21.38 17.57
Natural Gas Wellhead Price (1996 Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet) . . . 2.24 2.09 2.19 2.24 2.46
Minemouth Coal Price (1996 Dollars per Short Ton) ............ 18.50 16.43 12.82 15.05 11.44
Carbon Intensity (Metric Tons per Thousand 1992 Dollars of GDP) .... 0.217 0.183 0.138 0.170 0.109
Delivered Energy Prices (1996 Dollars) ..................
Coal (Dollars per Million Btu to Utilities) .................. 1.29 1.19 7.71 1.11 10.06
Natural Gas (Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet) ............. 4.25 3.92 7.61 3.79 8.95
Distillate (Dollars per Gallon) ....................... 1.09 1.21 1.89 1.23 2.14
Motor Gasoline (Dollars per Gallon) .................... 1.23 1.24 1.83 1.30 2.08
Electricity (Cents per Kilowatthour) .................... 6.9 5.9 9.8 5.6 10.3
Total Primary Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)............ 94.0 103.2 83.9 114.5 84.4
Fossil Fuel Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)
Natural Gas ................................ 22.6 29.9 30.1 36.4 37.0
Coal .................................... 20.9 22.8 8.4 25.8 2.7
Petroleum ................................. 36.0 40.7 35.3 45.2 37.2
Total ................................... 79.5 93.4 73.9 107.4 76.9
Total End-Use Carbon Emissions (Million Metric Tons) .......... 1,463 1,700 1,247 1,952 1,231
Buildings (Residential/Commercial)b .................... 170.9 Ñ Ñ Ñ Ñ
Industrialc ................................. 306.9 470.3 369.1 501.1 359.6
Transportation ............................... 468.4 564.0 507.6 642.5 550.1
Electricity ................................. 516.7 665.7 370.8 809.0 321.9
Energy Consumption for Electricity Generation (Quadrillion Btu)
Coal .................................... 18.36 20.35 7.10 23.32 1.64
Natural Gas ................................ 3.04 8.91 12.64 13.62 19.26
Nuclear .................................. 7.20 6.02 6.02 3.25 3.25
Renewables ................................ 4.47 3.79 4.00 3.81 4.22
Petroleum ................................. 0.75 0.69 0.52 0.63 0.05
Electricity Sales (Quadrillion Btu) ...................... 10.57 13.24 11.04 15.63 12.06

aCalculated as the sum of residential investment plus nonresidential fixed investment.

bExcludes emissions related to electricity generation.

cThe WEFA projection provides an Òother categoryÓ which combines direct emissions from the Buildings and Industrial sectors.

Sources: 1996: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98) (Washington, DC, December 1997). 2010
and 2020: WEFA, Inc., Global Warming: The High Cost of the Kyoto Protocol, National and State Impacts (1998). The WEFA report did not cover
analyses of alternative carbon emissions targets because they did not believe that a workable comprehensive international trading system could be
implemented in time and that developing countries would not participate in the clean development mechanism.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table C2. Summary of the CRA Analysis of the 1990-7% Case

Parameter 1996
Reference
Case in
2010
1990-7%
Case in
2010
Reference
Case in
2020
1990-7%
Case in
2020

Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton)............. NA NA 295 NA 316
Gross Domestic Product (Billion 1992 Chain-Weighted Dollars) . . 6,928 9,607 9,401 11,871 11,589
Total Carbon Emissions (Million Metric Tons)............ 1,463 1,806 1,252 1,955 1,252
Per Capita Carbon Emissions (Metric Tons per Person) ...... 5.5 6.0 4.2 6.0 3.9
Real Investment (Billion 1992 Dollars) ............... 1,067 2,472 2,342 2,999 2,890
Real Consumption (Billion 1992 Dollars) .............. 4,714 6,872 6,805 8,666 8,543
Carbon Intensity (Metric Tons per Thousand 1992 Dollars of GDP) 0.22 0.19 0.13 0.16 0.11
Delivered Energy Prices (1996 Dollars per Million Btu)
Electricity (Cents per Kilowatthour, National Average)....... 6.9 5.9 8.3 5.5 7.7
Natural Gas (Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet .......... 4.25 3.19 8.74 4.12 11.82
Petroleum Prices (Average Dollars per Gallon) .......... 1.03 1.20 3.26 1.64 4.00
Fossil Fuel Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)
Natural Gas ............................ 22.6 26.9 18.5 29.9 18.9
Coal ................................ 20.9 20.7 12.6 23.5 11.5
Petroleum ............................. 36.0 43.2 32.2 44.9 33.4
Total ............................... 79.5 90.8 63.3 98.2 63.7

Sources: 1996: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98) (Washington, DC, December 1997). 2010
and 2020: Paul M. Bernstein, Charles River Associates, e-mail communications, August 24, 1998.

Table C3. Summary of the CRA Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol With Annex I Trading

Parameter 1996
Reference
Case in
2010
Annex I
Trading
Case in
2010
Reference
Case in
2020
Annex I
Trading
Case in
2020

Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton)............. NA NA 109 NA 175
Gross Domestic Product (Billion 1992 Chain-Weighted Dollars) . . 6,928 9,607 9,486 11,871 11,666
Total Carbon Emissions (Million Metric Tons)............ 1,463 1,806 1,540 1,955 1,480
Per Capita Carbon Emissions (Metric Tons per Person) ...... 5.5 6.0 4.2 6.0 3.9
Real Investment (Billion 1992 Dollars) ............... 1,067 2,472 2,342 2,999 2,923
Real Consumption (Billion 1992 Dollars) .............. 4,714 6,872 6,838 8,666 8,591
Carbon Intensity (Metric Tons per Thousand 1992 Dollars of GDP) 0.217 0.19 0.16 0.16 0.13
Delivered Energy Prices (1996 Dollars)
Electricity (Cents per Kilowatthour, National Average)....... 6.9 5.9 6.6 5.5 6.6
Natural Gas (Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet) .......... 4.25 3.19 5.17 4.12 8.03
Petroleum Prices (Average, Dollars per Gallon) .......... 1.03 1.20 1.94 1.64 2.92
Fossil Fuel Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)
Natural Gas ............................ 22.6 26.9 22.7 29.9 23.2
Coal ................................ 20.9 20.7 16.8 23.5 14.7
Petroleum ............................. 36.0 43.2 38.0 44.9 37.4
Total ............................... 79.5 90.8 77.6 98.2 75.3

Sources: 1996: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98) (Washington, DC, December 1997). 2010
and 2020: Paul M. Bernstein, Charles River Associates, e-mail communications, August 24, 1998.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table C4. Summary of the EPRI Analysis of the 1990-7% Case

Parameter 1996
Reference
Case in
2010
1990-7%
Case in
2010
Reference
Case in
2020
1990-7%
Case in
2020

Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton)a ............. NA 0 280 0 251
Gross Domestic Product (Billion 1992 Chain-Weighted Dollars) . . . 6,928 9,296 9,203 11,389 11,280
Total Carbon Emissions (Million Metric Tons) ............ 1,463 1,827 1,305 1,947 1,305
Per Capita Carbon Emissions (Metric Tons per Person) ....... 5.5 6.1 4.4 6.0 4.0
Primary Energy Intensity (Thousand Btu per 1992 Dollar of GDP) . . 13.57 10.86 9.13 9.48 7.54
World Oil Price (Refiners Acquisition Price, 1996 Dollars per Barrel) 20.48 23.56 20.03 28.27 24.74
Carbon Intensity (Metric Tons per Thousand 1992 Dollars of GDP)
(Calculated) .............................. 0.217 0.197 0.142 0.171 0.116
Total Primary Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)......... 94 101 84 108 85
Total Fossil Fuel Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) ........... 79.51 87.31 Ñ 94.74 Ñ

aAll dollars values were given in 1990 dollars by R. Richels, EPRI. To convert from 1990 to 1992 dollars, a deflator of 1.068 was used. To convert
from 1990 to 1996 dollars, a deflator of 1.178 was used.

bCalculated by dividing total primary energy by value of GDP.

Sources: 1996: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98) (Washington, DC, December 1997). 2010
and 2020: R. Richels, EPRI, e-mail communications, July 6, 1998.

Table C5. Summary of the EPRI Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol With Annex I Trading

Parameter 1996
Reference
Case in
2010
Annex I
Trading
Case in
2010
Reference
Case in
2020
Annex I
Trading
Case in
2020

Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton) ............. NA 0 114 0 188
Gross Domestic Product (Billion 1992 Chain-Weighted Dollars) . . . 6,928 9,296 9,245 11,389 11,199
Total Carbon Emissions (Million Metric Tons) ............ 1,463 1,827 1,535 1,947 1,483
Per Capita Carbon Emissions (Metric Tons per Person) ....... 5.5 6.1 5.14 6.0 4.58
Primary Energy Intensity (Thousand Btu per 1992 Dollar of GDP)
(Calculated) .............................. 13.57 10.86 9.73 9.48 8.13
World Oil Price (Refiners Acquisition Price, 1996 Dollars per Barrel) 20.48 23.56 21.20 28.27 24.74
Carbon Intensity (Metric Tons per Thousand 1992 Dollars of GDP)
(Calculated) .............................. 0.217 0.197 0.166 0.171 0.132
Total Primary Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)......... 94.0 101.0 90.0 108.0 91.0
Total Fossil Fuel Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) ........... 79.51 87.31 75.78 94.74 77.01

Sources: 1996: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98) (Washington, DC, December 1997). 2010
and 2020: R. Richels, EPRI, e-mail communications, July 6, 1998.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table C6. Summary of the PNNL Analysis of the 1990-7% Case

Parameter 1996
Reference
Case in
2010
1990-7%
Case in
2010
Reference
Case in
2020
1990-7%
Case in
2020

Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton) ............. NA Ñ 221 Ñ 286
Gross Domestic Product (Billion 1992 Chain-Weighted Dollars) . . . 6,928 9,416 9,357a 10,875 10,775
Total Carbon Emissions (Million Metric Tons) ............ 1,463 1,853 1,267 2,035 1,267
Per Capita Carbon Emissions (Metric Tons per Person) ....... 5.5 6.0 4.3 6.1 4.0
Primary Energy Intensity (Thousand Btu per 1992 Dollar of GDP) . . 13.57 12.5 10.0 11.6 8.7
Carbon Intensity (Metric Tons per Thousand 1992 Dollars of GDP) . 0.217 0.197 0.135 0.187 0.118
Total Primary Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)......... 94.0 117.7 93.9 125.7 93.5
Fossil Fuel Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)
Natural Gas ............................. 22.6 33.3 33.5 38.4 38.5
Coal ................................. 20.9 24.5 5.8 26.6 2.9
Petroleum .............................. 36.0 44.5 38.0 47.9 38.0
Total ................................ 79.5 102.3 77.3 112.9 79.4
Energy Consumption for Electricity Generation (Quadrillion Btu)
Coal ................................. 18.4 20.7 3.0 22.2 0.5
Natural Gas ............................. 3.0 5.0 9.3 6.8 11.8
Nuclearb ............................... 7.2 8.8 9.9 5.7 6.7
Renewables ............................. 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.8
Petroleum .............................. 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0
Electricity Sales (Quadrillion Btu) ................... 10.6 13.1 10.2 13.6 9.8

aThe GDP values provided are equal to reference level GDP minus the domestic direct cost of meeting the required commitment level. This direct
cost may be different from the welfare loss to the economy.

bFor nuclear and renewable resources, estimated using 1995 benchmark for nuclear resources and corresponding PNNL generation.

Note: The PNL analysis includes a provision for the abatement costs of non-CO2 gases. Abatement costs for the non-CO2 gases are set such that
the same percentage reduction per dollar of carbon price for those gases is obtained as for CO2. No credits are included for sinks.

Sources: 1996: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98) (Washington, DC, December 1997). 2010
and 2020: Ronald Sands, PNNL, e-mail communication, August 26, 1998.

Table C7. Summary of the PNNL Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol With Annex I Trading

Parameter 1996
Reference
Case in
2010
Annex I
Trading
Case in
2010
Reference
Case in
2020
Annex I
Trading
Case in
2020

Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton) ............. NA Ñ 100 Ñ 142
Gross Domestic Product (Billion 1992 Chain-Weighted Dollars) . . . 6,928 9,416 9,381a 10,875 10,811
Total Carbon Emissions (Million Metric Tons) ............ 1,463 1,853 1,439 2,035 1486
Per Capita Carbon Emissions (Metric Tons per Person) ....... 5.5 6.0 4.9 6.1 4.5
Primary Energy Intensity (Thousand Btu per 1992 Dollar of GDP) . . 13.6 12.5 10.8 11.6 9.6
Carbon Intensity (Metric Tons per Thousand 1992 Dollars of GDP) . 0.217 0.197 0.153 0.187 0.137
Total Primary Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)......... 94.0 117.7 101.5 125.7 103.3
Fossil Fuel Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)
Natural Gas ............................. 22.6 33.3 33.6 38.4 39.2
Coal ................................. 20.9 24.5 10.4 26.6 8.6
Petroleum .............................. 36.0 44.5 41.0 47.9 41.8
Total ................................ 79.5 102.3 85.0 112.9 89.6
Energy Consumption for Electricity Generation (Quadrillion Btu)
Coal ................................. 18.4 20.7 7.3 22.2 5.6
Natural Gas ............................. 3.0 5.0 8.2 6.8 10.5
Nuclearb ............................... 7.2 8.8 9.6 5.7 6.4
Renewables ............................. 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7
Petroleum .............................. 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Electricity Sales (Quadrillion Btu) ................... 10.6 13.1 11.0 13.6 10.9

aThe GDP values provided are equal to reference level GDP minus the domestic direct cost of meeting the required commitment level. This direct
cost may be different from the welfare loss to the economy.

bFor nuclear and renewable resources, estimated using 1995 benchmark for nuclear resources and corresponding PNNL generation.

Note: The PNL analysis includes a provision for the abatement costs of non-CO2 gases. Abatement costs for the non-CO2 gases are set such that
the same percentage reduction per dollar of carbon price for those gases is obtained as for CO2. No credits are included for sinks.

Sources: 1996: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98) (Washington, DC, December 1997). 2010
and 2020: Ronald Sands, PNNL, e-mail communication, August 26, 1998.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table C8. Summary of the EIA Analysis of the 1990-7% Case

Parameter 1996
Reference
Case in
2010
1990-7%
Case in
2010
Reference
Case in
2020
1990-7%
Case in
2020

Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton)............. NA NA 348 NA 305
Gross Domestic Product (Billion 1992 Chain-Weighted Dollars) . . 6,928 9,429 9,032 10,865 10,782
Total Carbon Emissions (Million Metric Tons)............ 1,463 1,791 1,243 1,929 1,251
Per Capita Carbon Emissions (Metric Tons per Person) ...... 5.5 6.0 4.2 6.0 3.9
Real Disposable Personal Income (Billion 1992 Dollars) ...... 5,077 6,891 6,719 8,192 8,214
Real Investment (Billion 1992 Dollars) ............... 1,067 1,745 1,662 2,100 2,095
Real Consumption (Billion 1992 Dollars) .............. 4,714 6,347 6,160 7,599 7,636
Light-Duty Vehicle Sales (Millions) ................. 15.1 16.6 15.2 17.0 16.5
Primary Energy Intensity (Thousand Btu per 1992 Dollar of GDP) . 13.57 11.80 10.16 10.78 9.17
Delivered Energy Intensity (Thousand Btu per 1992 Dollar of GDP) 10.16 8.98 8.08 8.31 7.36
World Oil Price (Refiners Acquisition Price, 1996 Dollars per Barrel) 20.48 20.77 17.54 21.69 18.38
Natural Gas Wellhead Price (1996 Dollars per Thousand Cubic
Feet)................................. 2.24 2.33 3.03 2.62 3.53
Minemouth Coal Price (1996 Dollars per Short Ton) ........ 18.50 14.29 18.29 12.53 20.50
Carbon Intensity (Metric Tons per Thousand 1992 Dollars of GDP) 0.22 0.19 0.14 0.18 0.11
Delivered Energy Prices (1996 Dollars)
Coal (Dollars per Million Btu to Utilities) .............. 1.29 1.11 9.95 1.00 8.80
Natural Gas (Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet) .......... 4.25 3.87 9.57 4.07 9.35
Distillate (Dollars per Gallon).................... 1.09 1.08 1.90 1.06 1.77
Motor Gasoline (Dollars per Gallon) ................ 1.23 1.25 1.91 1.24 1.80
Electricity (Cents per Kilowatthour) ................ 6.9 5.9 11.0 5.6 9.3
Total Primary Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) ........ 94.0 111.2 91.7 117.0 98.8
Fossil Fuel Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)
Natural Gas ............................ 22.6 29.0 32.1 32.7 34.5
Coal ................................ 20.9 24.1 5.4 25.3 2.0
Petroleum ............................. 36.0 43.8 38.1 46.9 41.7
Total ............................... 79.5 96.9 75.6 104.9 78.2
Total End-Use Carbon Emissions (Million Metric Tons)a ...... 1,463 1,791 1,243 1,929 1,251
Buildings (Residential/Commercial) ................ 170.9 176.6 135.1 181.0 139.3
Industrial .............................. 306.9 345.1 308.7 355.0 322.9
Transportation ........................... 468.4 611.6 514.7 668.8 569.9
Electricity .............................. 516.7 657.4 285.0 726.0 218.6
Energy Consumption for Electricity Generation (Quadrillion Btu)
Coal ................................ 18.4 21.4 3.7 22.5 0.3
Natural Gas ............................ 3.0 6.9 12.7 9.6 14.3
Nuclear ............................... 7.2 6.2 7.4 3.8 7.4
Renewables ............................ 4.5 4.3 5.5 4.5 9.7
Petroleum ............................. 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Electricity Sales (Quadrillion Btu) .................. 10.57 13.19 10.98 14.47 12.51

aExcludes emissions related to electricity generation.

Sources: 1996: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98) (Washington, DC, December 1997). 2010
and 2020: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A and FD07BLW.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table C9. Summary of the EIA Analysis of the 1990+9% and 1990+14% Cases

Reference 1990+9% 1990+14% Reference 1990+9% 1990+14%
Case in Case in Case in Case in Case in Case in
Parameter 1996 2010 2010 2010 2020 2020 2020
Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton) .... NA NA 163 129 NA 141 123
Gross Domestic Product (Billion 1992 Chain-
Weighted Dollars) .................. 6,928 9,429 9,241 9,268 10,865 10,796 10,808
Total Carbon Emissions (Million Metric Tons).... 1,463 1,791 1,462 1,535 1,929 1,468 1,536
Per Capita Carbon Emissions (Metric Tons per
Person) ....................... 5.5 6.0 4.9 5.1 6.0 4.5 4.7
Real Disposable Personal Income (Billion 1992
Dollars) ....................... 5,077 6,891 6,783 6,794 8,192 8,153 8,151
Real Investment (Billion 1992 Dollars) ....... 1,067 1,745 1,719 1,716 2,100 2,098 2,099
Real Consumption (Billion 1992 Dollars) ...... 4,714 6,347 6,248 6,258 7,599 7,583 7,582
Light-Duty Vehicle Sales (Millions) ......... 15.1 16.6 16.0 16.0 17.0 16.7 16.7
Primary Energy Intensity (Thousand Btu per 1992
Dollar of GDP).................... 13.57 11.80 10.78 11.0 10.78 9.62 9.78
Delivered Energy Intensity (Thousand Btu per 1992
Dollar of GDP).................... 10.16 8.98 8.54 8.63 8.31 7.79 7.87
World Oil Price (Refiners Acquisition Price, 1996
Dollars per Barrel) .................. 20.48 20.77 18.72 19.15 21.69 19.73 19.81
Natural Gas Wellhead Price (1996 Dollars per
Thousand Cubic Feet)................ 2.24 2.33 2.78 2.62 2.62 3.71 3.50
Minemouth Coal Price (1996 Dollars per Short Ton) 18.50 14.29 16.42 15.81 12.53 16.24 15.51
Carbon Intensity (Metric Tons per Thousand 1992
Dollars of GDP) ................... 0.22 0.19 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.14 0.14
Delivered Energy Prices (1996 Dollars)
Coal (Dollars per Million Btu to Utilities) ...... 1.29 1.11 5.23 4.37 1.00 4.52 4.07
Natural Gas (Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet). . 4.25 3.87 6.63 5.96 4.07 7.14 6.66
Distillate (Dollars per Gallon) ........... 1.09 1.08 1.46 1.39 1.06 1.36 1.32
Motor Gasoline (Dollars per Gallon) ........ 1.23 1.25 1.55 1.50 1.24 1.49 1.45
Electricity (Cents per Kilowatthour) ........ 6.9 5.9 8.8 8.2 5.6 8.1 7.8
Total Primary Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) 94.0 111.2 99.6 101.9 117.0 103.8 105.6
Fossil Fuel Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)
Natural Gas .................... 22.6 29.0 31.8 30.7 32.7 36.0 35.4
Coal ........................ 20.9 24.1 11.7 14.8 25.3 7.1 10.0
Petroleum ..................... 36.0 43.8 41.1 41.6 46.9 44.8 44.9
Total ....................... 79.5 96.9 84.6 87.1 104.9 87.9 90.3
Total End-Use Carbon Emissions (Million Metric
Tons)a ........................ 1,463 1,791 1,462 1,535 1,929 1,468 1,536
Buildings (Residential/Commercial) ........ 170.9 176.6 154.2 159.1 181.0 155.2 159.0
Industrial ...................... 306.9 345.1 325.9 326.9 355.0 338.2 339.2
Transportation ................... 468.4 611.6 572.2 580.7 666.8 623.0 630.5
Electricity...................... 516.7 657.4 409.1 468.3 726.0 351.3 407.5
Energy Consumption for Electricity Generation
(Quadrillion Btu)
Coal ........................ 18.4 21.4 9.7 12.7 22.5 5.0 7.9
Natural Gas .................... 3.0 6.9 10.9 9.5 9.6 14.9 14.0
Nuclear....................... 7.2 6.2 7.0 6.9 3.8 5.9 5.6
Renewables .................... 4.5 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.5 6.6 6.2
Petroleum ..................... 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2
Electricity Sales (Quadrillion Btu) .......... 10.57 13.19 11.92 12.15 14.47 13.09 13.28

aExcludes emissions related to electricity generation.

Sources: 1996: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98) (Washington, DC, December 1997). 2010
and 2020: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD09ABV.D080398B, and
FD1998.D080398B.

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Table C10. DRI Case Summary

Reference Reference
Case in Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case Case 1 Case 2 Case 3
Parameter 1996 2010 in 2010 in 2010 in 2010 in 2020 in 2020 in 2020 in 2020
Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton) . NA NA 174 110 37 NA 190 131 70
GDP (Billion 1992 Chain-Weighted Dollars) . . 6,928 9,428 9,273 9,321 9,366 10,865 10,836 10,828 10,813
Total Carbon Emissions (Million Metric Tons) . 1,463 1,740 1,354 1,452 1,593 1,886 1,297 1,416 1,589
Per Capita Carbon Emissions
(Metric Tons per Person) ........... 5.5 5.8 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.8 4.0 4.4 4.9
Real Disposable Personal Income
(Billion 1992 Dollars) ............. 5,077 6,891 6,724 6,769 6,819 8,193 8,092 8,104 8,108
Real Investment (Billion 1992 Dollars)..... 1,067 1,746 1,780 1,762 1,738 2,150 2,225 2,199 2,181
Real Consumption (Billion 1992 Dollars) . . . 4,714 6,346 6,203 6,246 6,289 7,599 7,555 7,550 7,535
Light-Duty Vehicle Sales (Millions) ...... 15.1 16.6 15.9 16.1 16.3 17.0 16.8 16.8 17.1
Primary Energy Intensity
(Thousand Btu per 1992 Dollar of GDP) . . . 13.57 11.63 9.79 10.28 10.99 10.43 7.79 8.42 9.27
Delivered Energy Intensity
(Thousand Btu per 1992 Dollar of GDP) . . . 10.16 8.36 7.06 7.42 7.96 7.64 5.79 6.25 6.90
Carbon Intensity (Metric Tons
per Thousand 1992 Dollars of GDP) ..... 0.22 0.19 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.12 0.13 0.15
Delivered Energy Prices (1996 Dollars)
Coal (Dollars per Million Btu to Utilities) . . . 1.29 1.16 5.89 4.16 2.15 1.09 12.34 4.62 2.98
Natural Gas to Utilities
(Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet) ..... 2.70 2.47 5.20 4.15 3.10 2.96 5.64 4.77 4.01
Motor Gasoline (Dollars per Gallon) ..... 1.23 1.31 1.70 1.56 1.41 1.48 1.89 1.76 1.64
Electricity (Cents per Kilowatthour)...... 6.9 5.4 8.4 7.5 6.3 5.3 8.2 7.3 6.5
Total Primary Energy Consumption
(Quadrillion Btu)................ 94.0 108.1 91.0 95.4 102.9 112.9 84.4 91.1 100.2
Fossil Fuel Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)
Natural Gas.................. 22.6 28.5 25.3 26.1 29.1 31.5 21.1 24.3 29.4
Coal ..................... 20.9 24.5 13.9 16.5 18.7 26.3 13.9 15.4 17.4
Petroleum .................. 36.0 42.1 38.4 39.6 41.8 44.7 38.5 40.3 42.7
Total..................... 79.5 95.1 77.7 82.2 89.6 102.5 73.5 80.0 89.5
Total End-Use Carbon Emissions
(Million Metric Tons)a ............. 1,463 1,740 1,354 1,452 1,593 1,886 1,297 1,416 1,589
Buildings (Residential/Commercial) ..... 170.9 176.7 149.1 157.6 170.8 181.9 131.0 145.0 163.4
Industrial ................... 306.9 344.0 267.6 286.4 323.5 357.6 225.8 255.4 306.0
Transportation ................ 468.4 558.1 485.1 507.7 542.3 600.0 513.1 537.6 564.7
Electricity ................... 516.7 661.6 452.4 500.7 556.7 746.8 426.9 477.8 555.1
Electricity Sales (Quadrillion Btu) ....... 10.6 13.2 11.1 11.5 12.4 14.9 10.4 11.3 12.6

aExcludes emissions related to electricity generation.

Sources: 1996: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98) (Washington, DC, December 1997). 2010
and 2020: Standard and Poors DRI, The Impact of Meeting the Kyoto Protocol on Energy Markets and the Economy, Appendix I: National Impacts
(July 1998).

Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Appendix D
Letters from the Committee on Science




Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity



Energy Information Administration / Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity