ASJA LAW AND POLICY REPORT
Thursday April 26, 2007
No. 252

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ASJA Law and Policy Report (LPR) is written by Gary Pavela  (www.garypavela.com) and published weekly (except national holidays; during the ASJA National Conference and Gehring Institute; from mid-December to mid-January; and the month of August). Copyright: ASJA and Gary Pavela: All rights reserved. Further transmission within ASJA member institutions is permitted, if the author and ASJA are credited as the source. Index, archives, and additional source materials will be available to ASJA members at http://asja.tamu.edu. The information and comments provided here are designed to encourage discussion and analysis. They represent the views of the authors (not ASJA) and do not constitute legal advice. For legal advice the services of an attorney in your jurisdiction should be sought.

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TOPICS IN THIS ISSUE

07.20 School violence: threat assessment


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07.20 SAFETY AND SECURITY

School violence: threat assessment


Please consider the following profile of a troubled young adult, based on an actual case history:

[]Talked about suicide for weeks at a time.

[] Reportedly wrote dark poetry about thrusting a dagger in his heart and "draw[ing] blood in showers!"

[] Was described as "indifferent to transpiring events," and having "little to say" for extended periods.

[] Was known to "go crazy," requiring the removal of knives and dangerous items from his room.

[] Used opiates and cocaine.

[] Wandered around with a gun during periods of suicidal ideation.

[] Was fascinated by a woman he was too shy to approach.

[] Was described as being in a "morbid" state.

[] Collapsed while speaking openly of his hopelessness and thoughts of suicide.

[] Was eventually diagnosed with "recurrent major depression."

Who was this risk to society?
 
The answer is Abraham Lincoln. Source: Joshua Wolf Shenk, Lincoln's Melancholy: How Depression Challenged a President and Fueled His Greatness (2006).

Lincoln's life-long struggle to turn his mental illness into a source of strength underscores the importance of respecting the rights of individuals with mental disabilities. We should do so not out of sentimentality or excessive individualism, but for the benefit of a society dependent upon the creativity, self-insight, and wisdom of its leaders.

In the days ahead some college administrators and professors may take counsel of their fears and use broad profiles of "dangerous" students in order to bar them from classes, residence halls, or the campus as a whole. Without fact-based, individualized assessment this destructive practice will spark needless resentment and divert time and resources from more productive ways to promote campus safety.

This week and next (concurrently in all our publications) we will provide pertinent excerpts from several national reports, all in the public domain:

•   "The School Shooter: A Threat Assessment Perspective" (National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime, Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2000) ("FBI").

•   "The Final Report and Findings of the Safe Schools Initiative" (Secret Service and Department of Education, 2002) ("Secret Service").

•   "Threat Assessment in Schools: A Guide to Managing Threatening Situations and to Creating Safe School Climates" (Secret Service and Department of Education, 2002) ("Secret Service 2").

Our excerpts are designed to alert readers to key themes in the reports. We strongly recommend reviewing the reports in their entirety.

At the end of this series we will publish a suggested "letter to the faculty" on teaching troubled students. A version of the letter developed on your campus might be distributed to faculty members this summer or in the fall.


Excerpts from "The School Shooter: A Threat Assessment Perspective" ("FBI").


History and background

[] "Adolescent violence in general, and homicides in particular, have decreased since l993, but that hopeful trend has been somewhat obscured in the nationwide wave of concern over school shootings of the type examined in  [the National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime, FBI Academy] NCAVC's study. This recent form of adolescent violence is in fact quite rare. But the sudden, senseless deaths of teenagers and teachers in the middle of a school day, for no comprehensible reason, is far more shocking and gets far more attention than the less extreme acts of violence that happen in schools every week" (FBI, p. 2)


Limits and dangers of profiling

[ ] "One response to the pressure for action may be an effort to identify the next shooter by developing a "profile" of the typical school shooter. This may sound like a reasonable preventive measure, but in practice, trying to draw up a catalogue or ‘checklist' of warning signs to detect a potential school shooter can be shortsighted, even dangerous. Such lists, publicized by the media, can end up unfairly labeling many nonviolent students as potentially dangerous or even lethal. In fact, a great many adolescents who will never commit violent acts will show some of the behaviors or personality traits included on the list " (FBI, p. 2) [emphasis supplied].


[] "After a violent incident has taken place, retracing an offender's past and identifying clues that in retrospect could have been signs of danger can yield significant, useful information.
However, even clues that appear to help interpret past events should not be taken as predictors of similar events in the future. At this time, there is no research that has identified traits and characteristics that can reliably distinguish school shooters from other students. Many students appear to have traits and characteristics similar to those observed in students who were involved in school shootings" (FBI p. 3) [emphasis supplied].

Media coverage

[] "Though school shootings are extensively covered in the news media, the information available in news reports is not necessarily complete, accurate, or balanced. News coverage is
inherently hasty and often relies on sources who themselves have incomplete or inaccurate information. And journalists ordinarily do not have access to police and other investigative
reports that may contain highly significant but confidential information about a school shooting incident or about the background, previous activities, and traits of the student or students who carried out the shooting . . . To the extent that academics, researchers, and other specialists writing in professional publications base their articles on news accounts or other public sources, these too should be viewed with some reservations since they will also lack critical information available only in confidential school or law enforcement files" (FBI p. 3).


A threat assessment model

[] "Some threats can herald a clear and present danger of a tragedy on the scale of Columbine High School. Others represent little or no real threat to anyone's safety. Neither should beignored, but reacting to both in the same manner is ineffective and self-defeating. In every school, an established threat assessment procedure managed by properly trained staff can help school administrators and other school staff distinguish between different levels of threats and choose different appropriate responses . . . Threat assessment seeks to make an informed judgment on two questions: how credible and serious is the threat itself? And to what extent does the threatener appear to have the resources, intent, and motivation to carry out the threat?" (FBI p. 5).

[] "In general, people do not switch instantly from nonviolence to violence. Nonviolent people do not "snap" or decide on the spur of the moment to meet a problem by using violence.
Instead, the path toward violence is an evolutionary one, with signposts along the way. A threat is one observable behavior; others may be brooding about frustration or disappointment, fantasies of destruction or revenge, in conversations, writings, drawings, and other actions" (FBI p. 7).


[] "Specific, plausible details are a critical factor in evaluating a threat. Details can include the identity of the victim or victims; the reason for making the threat; the means, weapon, and method by which it is to be carried out; the date, time, and place where the threatened act will occur; and concrete information about plans or preparations that have already been made. Specific details can indicate that substantial thought, planning, and preparatory steps have already been taken, suggesting a higher risk that the threatener will follow through on his threat. Similarly, a lack of detail suggests the threatener may not have thought through all of the contingencies, has not actually taken steps to carry out the threat, and may not seriously intend violence but is "blowing off steam" over some frustration or seeking to frighten or intimidate a particular victim or disrupt a school's events or routine" (FBI p. 7-8).


[] "Though emotionally charged threats can tell the assessor something about the temperament of the threatener, they are not a measure of danger. They may sound frightening, but no correlation has been established between the emotional intensity in a threat and the risk that it will be carried out" (FBI p. 8).


Threat levels

Low Level of Threat: A threat which poses a minimal risk to the victim and public safety.

* Threat is vague and indirect.

* Information contained within the threat is inconsistent, implausible or lacks detail.

* Threat lacks realism.

* Content of the threat suggests person is unlikely to carry it out.


Medium Level of Threat: A threat which could be carried out, although it may not appear entirely realistic.

•   Threat is more direct and more concrete than a low level threat.

•   Wording in the threat suggests that the threatener has given some thought to how the act will be carried out.

•   There may be a general indication of a possible place and time (though these signs still fall well short of a detailed plan).

•   There is no strong indication that the threatener has taken preparatory steps, although there may be some veiled reference or ambiguous or inconclusive evidence pointing to

•   There may be a specific statement seeking to convey that the threat is not empty: "I'm serious!" or "I really mean this!"

High Level of Threat: A threat that appears to pose an imminent and serious danger to the safety of others.

•   Threat is direct, specific and plausible.

•   Threat suggests concrete steps have been taken toward carrying it out, for example, statements indicating that the threatener has acquired or practiced with a weapon or has

[] "A school cannot ignore any threat of violence. Plausible or not, every threat must be taken seriously, investigated, and responded to. A clear, vigorous response is essential for three reasons: first and most important, to make sure that students, teachers, and staff are safe (that is, that a threat will not be carried out); second, to assure that they will feel safe; and third, to assure that the person making the threat will be supervised and given the treatment that is appropriate and necessary to avoid future danger to others or himself." [FBI, p. 25].

An assessment model for evaluating threateners

[Editor's note: full details of the model should be carefully reviewed in the online text]  

[] "All aspects of a threatener's life must be considered when evaluating whether a threat is likely to be carried out. This model provides a framework for evaluating a student in order to determine if he or she has the motivation, means, and intent to carry out a proclaimed threat. The assessment is based on the "totality of the circumstances" known about the student in four major areas:

Prong One: Personality of the student

Prong Two: Family dynamics

Prong Three: School dynamics and the student's role in those dynamics

Prong Four: Social dynamics"  [FBI, p. 10].

[] "No one or two [personality] traits or characteristics [identified in the full text] should be considered in isolation or given more weight than the others. Any of these traits, or several, can be seen in students who are not contemplating a school shooting or other act of violence. The key to identifying a potentially dangerous threatener under this four-pronged assessment model is that there is evidence of problems on a majority of the items in each of the four areas. However, there is no "magical" number of traits or constellation of traits which will determine what students may present a problem . . .

Behavior is an expression of personality, but one bad day may not reflect a student's real personality or usual behavior pattern. Accurately evaluating someone's behavior requires
establishing a baseline -- how he or she typically behaves most of the time. Those responsible for assessing a student should seek information from people who have known the student over a period of time and have been able to observe him in varying situations and with a variety of people" [FBI, p. 15, emphasis in the original].


[] "About 25 percent of the adolescent population is at high risk for psycho-social problems and poor developmental outcomes such as academic failure, alcohol and other drug abuse, delinquency and problems with the law and violence. Twenty percent have a diagnosable mental health disorder at sometime during adolescence, the highest rate for any age group through the life-span" [FBI, n. 2, p. 12] [emphasis supplied].


[] "Within the larger community, an adolescent's peer group plays an especially crucial role in influencing attitudes and behavior. Information about a student's choice of friends and relations with his peers can provide valuable clues to his attitudes, sense of identity, and possible decisions about acting or not acting on a threat" [FBI, p. 24].


Coordination and teamwork

[] "Designate a threat assessment coordinator: One person in a school -- or perhaps several in a large school -- should be assigned to oversee and coordinate the school's response to all threats . . . " [FBI, p. 26].

[] "Consider forming a Multidisciplinary Team: As well as appointing a threat assessment coordinator, schools may decide to establish a multi disciplinary team as another component of the threat assessment system. Schools could draw team members from school staff and other professionals, including trained mental health professionals. The team would constitute an experienced, knowledgeable group that could review threats, consult with outside experts, and provide recommendations and advice to the coordinator and to the school administration. It is strongly recommended that a law enforcement representative should either be included as a member of the team or regularly consulted as a resource person"  [FBI, p. 26].


Limits of disciplinary action


[] "Expelling or suspending a student for making a threat must not be a substitute for careful threat assessment and a considered, consistent policy of intervention. Disciplinary action alone, unaccompanied by any effort to evaluate the threat or the student's intent, may actually exacerbate the danger-- for example, if a student feels unfairly or arbitrarily treated and becomes even angrier and more bent on carrying out a violent act" [FBI, p. 25] (emphasis supplied).


Copycat crimes

"School shootings and other violent incidents that receive intense media attention can generate threats or copycat violence elsewhere. Copycat behavior is very common, in fact.
Anecdotal evidence strongly indicates that threats increase in schools nationwide after a shootinghas occurred anywhere in the United States. Students, teachers, school administrators and law enforcement officials should be more vigilant in noting disturbing student behavior in the days andweeks or even several months following a heavily publicized incident elsewhere in the country."




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"Everything—even lunacy—is mass produced here. But everything goes out of fashion very quickly"

    —Albert Einstein on life in America (cited in Walter Isaacson, Einstein: His Life and Universe 2007, p. 537)

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