Colorado 2008 – County by County - Part II
County-wide analysis:
Here is a large table of all 64 counties in Colorado, sorted three times: first in descending order of partisan shift, second in descending order of margin and third in descending order of percentage of the state-wide popular vote.
This table is based on the raw numbers from: Colorado GE 2008 - Excel Raw-Data
The table includes each county's:
- % of the statewide PV from 2008 and 2004, plus the difference between the two („% shift“, known as „partisan shift“ or „swing“), and the winning margin.
- location within the state (NE, NC, NW, SE, SC, SW).
-individual growth rate, regardless of it's take in the statewide PV. So, it is possible for a very small county to have a large growth rate and still reflect a smaller percentage of the statewide popular vote.
Legend:
A negative
partisan shift in red (GOP) means the same thing as a
positive partisan shift in blue (DEM) and
visa-versa. Blue shading = DEM
pick-up. There were no GOP pick-ups and no positive GOP partisan shifts / negative Democratic partisans shifts in Colorado.
An underlined value indicates a number that appears to be wrong by 1/100th of a percentage point, but is not, due to rounding to the next 1/100th of a percent.
|
County |
Region |
G Rate |
% of PV'08 |
% of PV'04 |
Diff. |
Margin |
Partisan shift |
|
NC-NW |
19.42% |
4.41% |
4.16% |
+0.25% |
+8.72% |
-18.04% |
|
|
SC-SW |
-1.48% |
0.23% |
0.26% |
-0.03% |
+8.85% |
-17.24% |
|
|
C-NE |
14.54% |
11.08% |
10.91% |
+0.18% |
+12.91% |
+16.87% |
|
|
NW |
12.22% |
0.55% |
0.55% |
0.00 |
+26.86% |
+16.72% |
|
|
SC-SW |
0.11% |
0.26% |
0.29% |
-0.03% |
+14.09% |
+16.67% |
|
|
C |
25.26% |
6.32% |
5.69% |
+0.63% |
+17.22% |
-16.60% |
|
|
C |
16.97% |
0.90% |
0.87% |
+0.03% |
+23.13% |
+16.59% |
|
|
C-NC |
26.76% |
1.23% |
1.09% |
+0.14% |
+11.58% |
+16.19% |
|
|
C-NE |
17.43% |
6.68% |
6.42% |
+0.27% |
+18.36% |
+16.01% |
|
|
C |
12.98% |
11.38% |
11.35% |
+0.03% |
+18.82% |
-15.80% |
|
|
NC |
-2.25% |
0.04% |
0.04% |
-0.01% |
+38.01% |
-15.53% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
-0.66% |
0.06% |
0.06% |
-0.01% |
+28.79% |
-15.10% |
|
|
NC |
13.61% |
6.93% |
6.87% |
+0.05% |
+9.73% |
+14.93% |
|
|
SW |
0.65% |
0.03% |
0.03% |
0.00 |
+10.27% |
-14.93% |
|
|
SC |
-3.58% |
0.07% |
0.08% |
-0.01% |
+48.91% |
+14.59% |
|
|
C |
8.65% |
12.29% |
12.75% |
-0.46% |
+8.99% |
+14.18% |
|
|
C |
1.80% |
0.13% |
0.14% |
-0.01% |
+26.02% |
+13.74% |
|
|
NE |
3.00% |
0.43% |
0.47% |
-0.04% |
+24.03% |
-13.69% |
|
|
SW |
12.46% |
0.13% |
0.13% |
0.00 |
+8.79% |
+13.35% |
|
|
SW |
-2.00% |
0.11% |
0.13% |
-0.02% |
+28.29% |
+12.91% |
|
|
SW |
13.46% |
0.28% |
0.27% |
0.00 |
+12.11% |
-12.90% |
|
|
C |
8.47% |
0.62% |
0.64% |
-0.02% |
+33.02% |
+12.82% |
|
|
C-WC |
13.11% |
0.41% |
0.41% |
0.00 |
+0.12% |
-12.52% |
|
|
SC |
7.08% |
0.15% |
0.16% |
-0.01% |
+11.23% |
+12.31% |
|
|
C-NW |
9.19% |
0.35% |
0.36% |
-0.01% |
+1.10% |
-12.27% |
|
|
NC |
7.85% |
7.15% |
7.48% |
-0.32% |
+46.14% |
+12.26% |
|
|
SC-SW |
1.87% |
0.16% |
0.18% |
-0.02% |
+12.93% |
+12.14% |
|
|
C-NC |
13.69% |
11.31% |
11.21% |
+0.10% |
+52.41% |
+12.12% |
|
|
EC |
-1.46% |
0.14% |
0.16% |
-0.02% |
+44.83% |
-11.94% |
|
|
C-WC |
5.34% |
0.37% |
0.40% |
-0.03% |
+27.34% |
+11.86% |
|
|
SE |
-1.42% |
0.34% |
0.38% |
-0.05% |
+10.50% |
-11.29% |
|
|
SE |
-10.90% |
0.08% |
0.10% |
-0.02% |
+14.48% |
-11.18% |
|
|
SW |
8.24% |
0.18% |
0.19% |
-0.01% |
+55.54% |
+10.83% |
|
|
C-WC |
7.67% |
0.42% |
0.43% |
-0.02% |
+48.82% |
+10.45% |
|
|
SE-Tip |
-2.74% |
0.19% |
0.22% |
-0.03% |
+33.72% |
-10.20% |
|
|
C |
8.98% |
0.54% |
0.56% |
-0.02% |
+28.15% |
-10.17% |
|
|
WC-SW |
18.09% |
0.80% |
0.76% |
-0.04% |
+29.78% |
-9.94% |
|
|
SW-Tip |
9.67% |
1.17% |
1.20% |
-0.03% |
+16.28% |
+9.59% |
|
|
C |
2.74% |
0.24% |
0.26% |
-0.02% |
+17.89% |
+9.57% |
|
|
NW |
11.79% |
0.96% |
0.97% |
-0.01% |
+0.01% |
-9.17% |
|
|
C |
12.28% |
0.39% |
0.39% |
0.00 |
+6.88% |
-9.10% |
|
|
C-SC |
8.28% |
0.11% |
0.11% |
0.00 |
+28.91% |
-8.90% |
|
|
SW-Tip |
7.35% |
0.49% |
0.52% |
-0.02% |
+19.45% |
-8.88% |
|
|
C-EC |
16.21% |
0.55% |
0.53% |
+0.02% |
+40.05% |
-8.83% |
|
|
SC-SE |
7.80% |
3.02% |
3.15% |
-0.14% |
+14.97% |
+8.64% |
|
|
SE |
4.35% |
0.06% |
0.07% |
-0.01% |
+27.21% |
-8.15% |
|
|
SE-Tip |
-0.50% |
0.09% |
0.10% |
-0.01% |
+47.63% |
-7.13% |
|
|
NW-Tip |
2.55% |
0.24% |
0.27% |
-0.02% |
+43.48% |
-7.03% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
2.41% |
0.37% |
0.41% |
-0.04% |
+35.16% |
-6.79% |
|
|
WC |
9.00% |
0.64% |
0.66% |
-0.02% |
+32.29% |
-6.54% |
|
|
NE |
-0.67% |
0.10% |
0.12% |
-0.01% |
+56.51% |
-6.54% |
|
|
C-NC |
3.29% |
0.14% |
0.15% |
-0.01% |
+21.24% |
+6.28% |
|
|
WC |
12.52% |
2.90% |
2.90% |
-0.01% |
+29.54% |
-5.97% |
|
|
EC |
-1.41% |
0.10% |
0.11% |
-0.01% |
+50.82% |
-5.49% |
|
|
SE |
2.56% |
0.28% |
0.31% |
-0.03% |
+7.04% |
+5.46% |
|
|
C-SC |
7.52% |
0.83% |
0.87% |
-0.04% |
+29.24% |
-5.20% |
|
|
EC-SE |
-4.48% |
0.04% |
0.04% |
-0.01% |
+55.40% |
-5.14% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
-2.80% |
0.09% |
0.11% |
-0.02% |
+43.81% |
-5.01% |
|
|
NW-Tip |
4.80% |
0.13% |
0.14% |
-0.01% |
+56.63% |
-4.55% |
|
|
NE |
-1.67% |
0.19% |
0.21% |
-0.03% |
+48.38% |
-4.08% |
|
|
SW |
6.20% |
0.05% |
0.05% |
0.00 |
+36.89% |
-2.55% |
|
|
SW |
-0.50% |
0.02% |
0.03% |
0.00 |
+17.36% |
-2.41% |
|
|
SW |
2.06% |
0.02% |
0.02% |
0.00 |
+9.27% |
+1.66% |
|
|
EC |
-2.03% |
0.05% |
0.05% |
-0.01% |
+62.29% |
-1.65% |
How to interpret this table:
Example 1: Garfield County (pop. Approximately 53,630, county seat: Glenwood Springs), a Republican retention, was staunch GOP territory until 2008. Garfield county has the distinction of being the closest county race in the entire Union. Out of 23,082 votes cast in the county for President, only 2 votes separated Obama and McCain, making a winning margin of +0.01%. A switch of just one vote from McCain to Obama would have made this race a perfect tie. In a county that is not supposed to be a swing county, it just doesn't get much more purple than this.
This county has 7 large protected areas and 3 scenic byways; due to land restrictions it will never be a huge county by population. Nonetheless, it's take of the PV in Colorado has gone from 0.71% in 1960 to 0.96% in 2008. The county is approximately 24% hispanic (it was 17% in 2000), and that statistic is on the rise. Bill Clinton carried the county in 1992, but with 31.51% of the vote is a nearly even 3-man race. Percentually, Obama's performance in Garfield county in the best for a Democrat since 1964.
Example 2: Ouray County (pop. Approximately 4,400, county seat: Ouray), a Democratic pick-up, was the most accurate bellwether of the state in both 2008 and 2004:
|
2008 |
DEM % |
GOP % |
IND % |
Margin % |
Margin-Shift |
|
Ouray County |
53.46% |
44.67% |
1.86% |
+8.79% |
+13.35% |
|
Colorado (state) |
53.66% |
44.71% |
1.63% |
+8.95% |
+13.62% |
|
Difference: |
-0.20% |
-0.04% |
+0.23% |
-0.16% |
-0.27% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 |
DEM % |
GOP % |
IND % |
Margin % |
Margin-Shift |
|
Ouray County |
46.97% |
51.53% |
1.51% |
+4.56% |
-21.15% |
|
Colorado (state) |
47.02% |
51.69% |
1.28% |
+4.67% |
-3.69% |
|
Difference: |
-0.04% |
-0.16% |
+0.24% |
-0.11% |
-17.46% |
It is fascinating to note that both cases, the county missed the winning percent by between 0.15%-0.20%, and missed the losing percent by exactly -0.04%, regardless of party.
The county has remained amazingly consistent as far as it's take of the statewide PV. In 1960, Ouray accounted for 0.13% of the PV . In 2008, Ouray accounted for 0.13% of the statewide PV. From 1964 to 2008, the county went from 0.10% to 0.13%, a very slow, small, but steady shift. Ouray's new status as very accurate bellwether will make it interesting to watch in 2012. Ouray was one of three rock-solid GOP counties to flip in 2008, alongside Jefferson and Arapahoe (which will be addressed in detail in Part III).
Example 3: El Paso County (pop. Approximately 587,300, county seat: Colorado Springs), the 2nd largest county in Colorado in population and also by percentage of the statewide PV, is the only truly large county in the state that stayed with the GOP. There are more military installations and personnel in El Paso County than in any other county in Colorado and, aside from the Johnson landslide of 1964, El Paso has remained a core GOP stronghold in the state. McCain won the county with +18.82%, which is indeed a big landslide margin. However, his margin was reduced -15.80% over 2004. The GOP is used to margins around +30% in El Paso. 2008 was the second time in modern history that the GOP winning margin fell under +20%. The last time was in 1976, when a navy man named Jimmy Carter was on the Democratic ballot. In Part III, there is a special study of the five largest counties and the tipping-point counties, going back to 1960, and El Paso is part of that study.
Example 4: Broomfield County (est. 2001, pop. Approximately 53,700, county seat: Broomfield), a Democratic pick-up, is a brand-new entity in the state statistics, having first officially recorded presidential votes as a county in 2004, meaning that the comparison from 2008 to 2004 is the first in the county's history. The county was created out of portions of Adams, Boulder, Jefferson and Weld counties and was expected to be a moderate republican county, due to the demographic make-up of the county and it's incorporated city. It has become, however, somewhat the „Silicon Valley“ of Colorado and is now known for high-tech service and industry. In 2004, Broomfield County was an almost perfect bellwether:
|
2004 |
DEM % |
GOP % |
IND % |
Margin % |
Margin-Shift |
|
Broomfield county |
47.06% |
51.68% |
1.26% |
+4.61% |
--- |
|
Colorado (state) |
47.02% |
51.69% |
1.28% |
+4.67% |
-3.69% |
|
Difference: |
+0.04% |
-0.01% |
-0.02% |
-0.06% |
--- |
However, in 2008, Broomfield posted better numbers for Obama (+11.58%) than statewide.
Example 5: the three „tipping-point“ counties from 2004, all of which became solid DEM counties in 2008:
|
County |
Region |
Margin '04 |
Margin '08 |
Partisan Shift |
|
SC-SW |
+0.79% |
+12.93% |
+12.14% |
|
|
SC |
+1.09% |
+11.23% |
+12.31% |
|
|
C-NE |
+2.35% |
+18.36% |
+16.01% |
Example 6: Denver County (pop. Approximately 588,350, county seat: Denver), a Democratic retention, went for President Obama in a landslide as expected. It is still worthy of special note, for it is rare that a candidate scores a landslide margin-shift in a county that is already landslide territory. Kerry won Denver with 69.56% and a +40.29% „blowout“ margin in 2004.. Obama increased the percentage to 75.45% and the margin to +52.41%, a +12.13% margin-shift. These types of margins are numbers that the Democratic party has not enjoyed in this frequency since 1964.
Denver is Obama's second largest big city win by percentage (75.45%) in the pick-up states after Durham, NC (Durham: 75.57%); however, it is his largest big city win win in the pick-up states by margin (Durham: margin +51.94) and his third largest win in a big city by pure raw-vote margin:
Cuyahoga County, OH : +258,542
Broward County, FL: +254,911
Denver County, CO: +142,315
Miami-Dade County, FL: +139,280
That being said, Denver County, with it's 11.31% of the PV in 2008 in Colorado, is generally decreasing in size. In 1960, Denver represented a whopping 29.98% (2.65 times larger than now) of the then statewide PV and it's take of the PV has decreased steadily in every election cycle since then until 2008, where Denver had a +0.10% INCREASE in the statewide PV. This means that 2012 will also be a key year ito determine whether Denver county is truly on the increase or whether 2008 was a statistical aberration due to the special nature of this election.
Example 7: Arapahoe County (pop. Approximately 545,100, county seat: Littleton) was the largest Democratic pick-up for Obama in Colorado. The county is also a large military county, similar to El Paso county, but not on the same scale. The county accounted for 11.08% of the statewide PV, just slightly ahead of fellow pick-up Jefferson County (pop. approximately 529,400 , county seat: Golden), which accounted for 11.02% of the statewide PV. This indicates a huge shift in the balance of power in the largest counties in Colorado: in 2004, George W. Bush won 3 of the 4 largest counties. This time, Obama won 3 of the 4 largest, and these two pick-ups are counties that have voted reliably GOP, with landslide margins until 2004. Which brings us to the point of urban distribution in Colorado: it is the first state of the Democratic pick-ups with 4 counties, each of which accounts for over 11% of the statewide PV. Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida each have only county in their respective states that accounted for 10% or more of the PV. And three of these four counties in Colorado are growing, indicating that the lopsided nature of urban vs. rural will become more extreme in the future. This is good news for the political party that relies on huge wins in urban areas in order to win and bad news for the party that relies on the majority of it's base vote from the rural areas. More on this point in a special analysis in part III.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Concerning the margin-shifts from the above table, here a numeric breakdown, for the democratic party for six states:
|
Partisan-shift range |
NEVADA |
NEW MEXICO |
COLORADO |
|
---------------------- |
No (%) of 17 |
No (%) of 33 |
No (%) 64 |
|
+30% and higher |
(in progress) |
(in progress) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
+25% to 25.99% |
|
|
0 (0.00%) |
|
+20% to +24.99% |
|
|
0 (0.00%) |
|
+15% to +19.99% |
|
|
12 (18.75%) |
|
+10% to +14.99% |
|
|
24 (37.50%) |
|
+5% to +9.99% |
|
|
22 (34.38%) |
|
+1% to +4.99% |
|
|
6 (9.37%) |
|
+0% to +0.99% |
|
|
0 (0.00%) |
|
-0% to -0.99% |
|
|
0 (0.00%) |
|
-1% to -4.99% |
|
|
0 (0.00%) |
|
-5% to -9.99% |
|
|
0 (0.00%) |
|
-10% to -14.99% |
|
|
0 (0.00%) |
|
-15% to -19.99% |
|
|
0 (0.00%) |
|
Partisan-shift range |
IOWA |
OHIO |
INDIANA |
|
---------------------- |
No (%) of 99 |
No (%) of 88 |
No (%) of 92 |
|
+30% and higher |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
5 (0.54%) |
|
+25% to 25.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
12 (13.01%) |
|
+20% to +24.99% |
3 (3.03%) |
1 (1.14%) |
41 (44.57%) |
|
+15% to +19.99% |
12 (12.12%) |
7 (7.95%) |
16 (17.39%) |
|
+10% to +14.99% |
39 (39.39%) |
15 (17.06%) |
10 (10.87%) |
|
+5% to +9.99% |
23 (23.23%) |
30 (34.09%) |
6 (6.52%) |
|
+1% to +4.99% |
19 (19.19%) |
19 (21.59%) |
2 (2.17%) |
|
+0% to +0.99% |
2 (2.01%) |
5 (5.68%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-0% to -0.99% |
1 (1.01%) |
2 (2.27%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-1% to -4.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
9 (10.22%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-5% to -9.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-10% to -14.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-15% to -19.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
Partisan-shift range |
FLORIDA |
NORTH CAROLINA |
VIRGINIA |
|
---------------------- |
No (%) of |
No (%) of 100 |
No (%) of 134 |
|
+30% and higher |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
+25% to 25.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
3 (2.24%) |
|
+20% to +24.99% |
1 (1.49%) |
2 (2.00%) |
8 (5.97%) |
|
+15% to +19.99% |
1 (1.49%) |
9 (9.00%) |
26 (19.40%) |
|
+10% to +14.99% |
10 (14.93%) |
29 (29.00%) |
37 (27.62%) |
|
+5% to +9.99% |
17 (25.37%) |
29 (29.00%) |
35 (26.12%) |
|
+1% to +4.99% |
11 (16.42%) |
22 (22.00%) |
14 (10.45%) |
|
+0% to +0.99% |
2 (2.99%) |
2 (2.00%) |
2 (1.49%) |
|
-0% to -0.99% |
3 (4.48%) |
2 (2.00%) |
2 (1.49%) |
|
-1% to -4.99% |
11 (16.42%) |
5 (5.00%) |
2 (1.49%) |
|
-5% to -9.99% |
7 (10.45%) |
1 (1.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-10% to -14.99% |
4 (5.97%) |
0 (0.00%) |
4 (2.99%) |
|
-15% to -19.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
1 (0.75%) |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here the 64 county table again, re-sorted by winning margin:
|
County |
Region |
G Rate |
% of PV'08 |
% of PV'04 |
Diff. |
Margin |
Partisan shift |
|
EC |
-2.03% |
0.05% |
0.05% |
-0.01% |
+62.29% |
-1.65% |
|
|
NW-Tip |
4.80% |
0.13% |
0.14% |
-0.01% |
+56.63% |
-4.55% |
|
|
NE |
-0.67% |
0.10% |
0.12% |
-0.01% |
+56.51% |
-6.54% |
|
|
SW |
8.24% |
0.18% |
0.19% |
-0.01% |
+55.54% |
+10.83% |
|
|
EC-SE |
-4.48% |
0.04% |
0.04% |
-0.01% |
+55.40% |
-5.14% |
|
|
C-NC |
13.69% |
11.31% |
11.21% |
+0.10% |
+52.41% |
+12.12% |
|
|
EC |
-1.41% |
0.10% |
0.11% |
-0.01% |
+50.82% |
-5.49% |
|
|
SC |
-3.58% |
0.07% |
0.08% |
-0.01% |
+48.91% |
+14.59% |
|
|
C-WC |
7.67% |
0.42% |
0.43% |
-0.02% |
+48.82% |
+10.45% |
|
|
NE |
-1.67% |
0.19% |
0.21% |
-0.03% |
+48.38% |
-4.08% |
|
|
SE-Tip |
-0.50% |
0.09% |
0.10% |
-0.01% |
+47.63% |
-7.13% |
|
|
NC |
7.85% |
7.15% |
7.48% |
-0.32% |
+46.14% |
+12.26% |
|
|
EC |
-1.46% |
0.14% |
0.16% |
-0.02% |
+44.83% |
-11.94% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
-2.80% |
0.09% |
0.11% |
-0.02% |
+43.81% |
-5.01% |
|
|
NW-Tip |
2.55% |
0.24% |
0.27% |
-0.02% |
+43.48% |
-7.03% |
|
|
C-EC |
16.21% |
0.55% |
0.53% |
+0.02% |
+40.05% |
-8.83% |
|
|
NC |
-2.25% |
0.04% |
0.04% |
-0.01% |
+38.01% |
-15.53% |
|
|
SW |
6.20% |
0.05% |
0.05% |
0.00 |
+36.89% |
-2.55% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
2.41% |
0.37% |
0.41% |
-0.04% |
+35.16% |
-6.79% |
|
|
SE-Tip |
-2.74% |
0.19% |
0.22% |
-0.03% |
+33.72% |
-10.20% |
|
|
C |
8.47% |
0.62% |
0.64% |
-0.02% |
+33.02% |
+12.82% |
|
|
WC |
9.00% |
0.64% |
0.66% |
-0.02% |
+32.29% |
-6.54% |
|
|
WC-SW |
18.09% |
0.80% |
0.76% |
-0.04% |
+29.78% |
-9.94% |
|
|
WC |
12.52% |
2.90% |
2.90% |
-0.01% |
+29.54% |
-5.97% |
|
|
C-SC |
7.52% |
0.83% |
0.87% |
-0.04% |
+29.24% |
-5.20% |
|
|
C-SC |
8.28% |
0.11% |
0.11% |
0.00 |
+28.91% |
-8.90% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
-0.66% |
0.06% |
0.06% |
-0.01% |
+28.79% |
-15.10% |
|
|
SW |
-2.00% |
0.11% |
0.13% |
-0.02% |
+28.29% |
+12.91% |
|
|
C |
8.98% |
0.54% |
0.56% |
-0.02% |
+28.15% |
-10.17% |
|
|
C-WC |
5.34% |
0.37% |
0.40% |
-0.03% |
+27.34% |
+11.86% |
|
|
SE |
4.35% |
0.06% |
0.07% |
-0.01% |
+27.21% |
-8.15% |
|
|
NW |
12.22% |
0.55% |
0.55% |
0.00 |
+26.86% |
+16.72% |
|
|
C |
1.80% |
0.13% |
0.14% |
-0.01% |
+26.02% |
+13.74% |
|
|
NE |
3.00% |
0.43% |
0.47% |
-0.04% |
+24.03% |
-13.69% |
|
|
C |
16.97% |
0.90% |
0.87% |
+0.03% |
+23.13% |
+16.59% |
|
|
C-NC |
3.29% |
0.14% |
0.15% |
-0.01% |
+21.24% |
+6.28% |
|
|
SW-Tip |
7.35% |
0.49% |
0.52% |
-0.02% |
+19.45% |
-8.88% |
|
|
C |
12.98% |
11.38% |
11.35% |
+0.03% |
+18.82% |
-15.80% |
|
|
C-NE |
17.43% |
6.68% |
6.42% |
+0.27% |
+18.36% |
+16.01% |
|
|
C |
2.74% |
0.24% |
0.26% |
-0.02% |
+17.89% |
+9.57% |
|
|
SW |
-0.50% |
0.02% |
0.03% |
0.00 |
+17.36% |
-2.41% |
|
|
C |
25.26% |
6.32% |
5.69% |
+0.63% |
+17.22% |
-16.60% |
|
|
SW-Tip |
9.67% |
1.17% |
1.20% |
-0.03% |
+16.28% |
+9.59% |
|
|
SC-SE |
7.80% |
3.02% |
3.15% |
-0.14% |
+14.97% |
+8.64% |
|
|
SE |
-10.90% |
0.08% |
0.10% |
-0.02% |
+14.48% |
-11.18% |
|
|
SC-SW |
0.11% |
0.26% |
0.29% |
-0.03% |
+14.09% |
+16.67% |
|
|
SC-SW |
1.87% |
0.16% |
0.18% |
-0.02% |
+12.93% |
+12.14% |
|
|
C-NE |
14.54% |
11.08% |
10.91% |
+0.18% |
+12.91% |
+16.87% |
|
|
SW |
13.46% |
0.28% |
0.27% |
0.00 |
+12.11% |
-12.90% |
|
|
C-NC |
26.76% |
1.23% |
1.09% |
+0.14% |
+11.58% |
+16.19% |
|
|
SC |
7.08% |
0.15% |
0.16% |
-0.01% |
+11.23% |
+12.31% |
|
|
SE |
-1.42% |
0.34% |
0.38% |
-0.05% |
+10.50% |
-11.29% |
|
|
SW |
0.65% |
0.03% |
0.03% |
0.00 |
+10.27% |
-14.93% |
|
|
NC |
13.61% |
6.93% |
6.87% |
+0.05% |
+9.73% |
+14.93% |
|
|
SW |
2.06% |
0.02% |
0.02% |
0.00 |
+9.27% |
+1.66% |
|
|
C |
8.65% |
12.29% |
12.75% |
-0.46% |
+8.99% |
+14.18% |
|
|
SC-SW |
-1.48% |
0.23% |
0.26% |
-0.03% |
+8.85% |
-17.24% |
|
|
SW |
12.46% |
0.13% |
0.13% |
0.00 |
+8.79% |
+13.35% |
|
|
NC-NW |
19.42% |
4.41% |
4.16% |
+0.25% |
+8.72% |
-18.04% |
|
|
SE |
2.56% |
0.28% |
0.31% |
-0.03% |
+7.04% |
+5.46% |
|
|
C |
12.28% |
0.39% |
0.39% |
0.00 |
+6.88% |
-9.10% |
|
|
C-NW |
9.19% |
0.35% |
0.36% |
-0.01% |
+1.10% |
-12.27% |
|
|
C-WC |
13.11% |
0.41% |
0.41% |
0.00 |
+0.12% |
-12.52% |
|
|
NW |
11.79% |
0.96% |
0.97% |
-0.01% |
+0.01% |
-9.17% |
Here the 64 county table again, re-sorted in descending order of county size, based on % of statewide PV in 2008 (blue shading= DEM pick-up).
To get a picture of how unbalanced this all is between urban and rural counties:
Jefferson county (12.29%) = bottom 50 counties.
Jefferson, El Paso and Denver counties (34.98%) = bottom 59 counties.
Jefferson, El Paso, Denver and Arapahoe counties (53.21%) = all other counties combined.
|
County |
Region |
G Rate |
% of PV'08 |
% of PV'04 |
Diff. |
Margin |
Partisan shift |
|
C |
8.65% |
12.29% |
12.75% |
-0.46% |
+8.99% |
+14.18% |
|
|
C |
12.98% |
11.38% |
11.35% |
+0.03% |
+18.82% |
-15.80% |
|
|
C-NC |
13.69% |
11.31% |
11.21% |
+0.10% |
+52.41% |
+12.12% |
|
|
C-NE |
14.54% |
11.08% |
10.91% |
+0.18% |
+12.91% |
+16.87% |
|
|
NC |
7.85% |
7.15% |
7.48% |
-0.32% |
+46.14% |
+12.26% |
|
|
NC |
13.61% |
6.93% |
6.87% |
+0.05% |
+9.73% |
+14.93% |
|
|
C-NE |
17.43% |
6.68% |
6.42% |
+0.27% |
+18.36% |
+16.01% |
|
|
C |
25.26% |
6.32% |
5.69% |
+0.63% |
+17.22% |
-16.60% |
|
|
NC-NW |
19.42% |
4.41% |
4.16% |
+0.25% |
+8.72% |
-18.04% |
|
|
SC-SE |
7.80% |
3.02% |
3.15% |
-0.14% |
+14.97% |
+8.64% |
|
|
WC |
12.52% |
2.90% |
2.90% |
-0.01% |
+29.54% |
-5.97% |
|
|
C-NC |
26.76% |
1.23% |
1.09% |
+0.14% |
+11.58% |
+16.19% |
|
|
SW-Tip |
9.67% |
1.17% |
1.20% |
-0.03% |
+16.28% |
+9.59% |
|
|
NW |
11.79% |
0.96% |
0.97% |
-0.01% |
+0.01% |
-9.17% |
|
|
C |
16.97% |
0.90% |
0.87% |
+0.03% |
+23.13% |
+16.59% |
|
|
C-SC |
7.52% |
0.83% |
0.87% |
-0.04% |
+29.24% |
-5.20% |
|
|
WC-SW |
18.09% |
0.80% |
0.76% |
-0.04% |
+29.78% |
-9.94% |
|
|
WC |
9.00% |
0.64% |
0.66% |
-0.02% |
+32.29% |
-6.54% |
|
|
C |
8.47% |
0.62% |
0.64% |
-0.02% |
+33.02% |
+12.82% |
|
|
C-EC |
16.21% |
0.55% |
0.53% |
+0.02% |
+40.05% |
-8.83% |
|
|
NW |
12.22% |
0.55% |
0.55% |
0.00 |
+26.86% |
+16.72% |
|
|
C |
8.98% |
0.54% |
0.56% |
-0.02% |
+28.15% |
-10.17% |
|
|
SW-Tip |
7.35% |
0.49% |
0.52% |
-0.02% |
+19.45% |
-8.88% |
|
|
NE |
3.00% |
0.43% |
0.47% |
-0.04% |
+24.03% |
-13.69% |
|
|
C-WC |
7.67% |
0.42% |
0.43% |
-0.02% |
+48.82% |
+10.45% |
|
|
C-WC |
13.11% |
0.41% |
0.41% |
0.00 |
+0.12% |
-12.52% |
|
|
C |
12.28% |
0.39% |
0.39% |
0.00 |
+6.88% |
-9.10% |
|
|
C-WC |
5.34% |
0.37% |
0.40% |
-0.03% |
+27.34% |
+11.86% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
2.41% |
0.37% |
0.41% |
-0.04% |
+35.16% |
-6.79% |
|
|
C-NW |
9.19% |
0.35% |
0.36% |
-0.01% |
+1.10% |
-12.27% |
|
|
SE |
-1.42% |
0.34% |
0.38% |
-0.05% |
+10.50% |
-11.29% |
|
|
SW |
13.46% |
0.28% |
0.27% |
0.00 |
+12.11% |
-12.90% |
|
|
SE |
2.56% |
0.28% |
0.31% |
-0.03% |
+7.04% |
+5.46% |
|
|
SC-SW |
0.11% |
0.26% |
0.29% |
-0.03% |
+14.09% |
+16.67% |
|
|
C |
2.74% |
0.24% |
0.26% |
-0.02% |
+17.89% |
+9.57% |
|
|
NW-Tip |
2.55% |
0.24% |
0.27% |
-0.02% |
+43.48% |
-7.03% |
|
|
SC-SW |
-1.48% |
0.23% |
0.26% |
-0.03% |
+8.85% |
-17.24% |
|
|
NE |
-1.67% |
0.19% |
0.21% |
-0.03% |
+48.38% |
-4.08% |
|
|
SE-Tip |
-2.74% |
0.19% |
0.22% |
-0.03% |
+33.72% |
-10.20% |
|
|
SW |
8.24% |
0.18% |
0.19% |
-0.01% |
+55.54% |
+10.83% |
|
|
SC-SW |
1.87% |
0.16% |
0.18% |
-0.02% |
+12.93% |
+12.14% |
|
|
SC |
7.08% |
0.15% |
0.16% |
-0.01% |
+11.23% |
+12.31% |
|
|
C-NC |
3.29% |
0.14% |
0.15% |
-0.01% |
+21.24% |
+6.28% |
|
|
EC |
-1.46% |
0.14% |
0.16% |
-0.02% |
+44.83% |
-11.94% |
|
|
SW |
12.46% |
0.13% |
0.13% |
0.00 |
+8.79% |
+13.35% |
|
|
NW-Tip |
4.80% |
0.13% |
0.14% |
-0.01% |
+56.63% |
-4.55% |
|
|
C |
1.80% |
0.13% |
0.14% |
-0.01% |
+26.02% |
+13.74% |
|
|
C-SC |
8.28% |
0.11% |
0.11% |
0.00 |
+28.91% |
-8.90% |
|
|
SW |
-2.00% |
0.11% |
0.13% |
-0.02% |
+28.29% |
+12.91% |
|
|
EC |
-1.41% |
0.10% |
0.11% |
-0.01% |
+50.82% |
-5.49% |
|
|
NE |
-0.67% |
0.10% |
0.12% |
-0.01% |
+56.51% |
-6.54% |
|
|
SE-Tip |
-0.50% |
0.09% |
0.10% |
-0.01% |
+47.63% |
-7.13% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
-2.80% |
0.09% |
0.11% |
-0.02% |
+43.81% |
-5.01% |
|
|
SE |
-10.90% |
0.08% |
0.10% |
-0.02% |
+14.48% |
-11.18% |
|
|
SC |
-3.58% |
0.07% |
0.08% |
-0.01% |
+48.91% |
+14.59% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
-0.66% |
0.06% |
0.06% |
-0.01% |
+28.79% |
-15.10% |
|
|
SE |
4.35% |
0.06% |
0.07% |
-0.01% |
+27.21% |
-8.15% |
|
|
SW |
6.20% |
0.05% |
0.05% |
0.00 |
+36.89% |
-2.55% |
|
|
EC |
-2.03% |
0.05% |
0.05% |
-0.01% |
+62.29% |
-1.65% |
|
|
EC-SE |
-4.48% |
0.04% |
0.04% |
-0.01% |
+55.40% |
-5.14% |
|
|
NC |
-2.25% |
0.04% |
0.04% |
-0.01% |
+38.01% |
-15.53% |
|
|
SW |
0.65% |
0.03% |
0.03% |
0.00 |
+10.27% |
-14.93% |
|
|
SW |
2.06% |
0.02% |
0.02% |
0.00 |
+9.27% |
+1.66% |
|
|
SW |
-0.50% |
0.02% |
0.03% |
0.00 |
+17.36% |
-2.41% |