Iowa 2008 – County by County - Part III
An analysis of the democratic pick-up counties in Iowa:
First, here a map of the Democratic retentions 2004 to 2008:
darkest blue = +20% or above
dark blue = +15% to +20%
blue = +10% to +15%
light blue = +4% to +10%
lightest blue = +0% to 4%
Here the Democratic retentions plus the Democratic pick-ups (in Gold) 2004 to 2008:
Here the Democratic retentions plus the Democratic pick-ups integrated, by margin 2004 to 2008:
darkest blue = +20% or above
dark blue = +15% to +20%
blue = +10% to +15%
light blue = +4% to +10%
lightest blue = +0% to 4%
Here all Democratic counties plus the Republican tipping-point counties for 2008:
darkest blue = +20% or above
dark blue = +15% to +20%
blue = +10% to +15%
light blue = +4% to +10%
lightest blue = +0% to 4%
light red = +1% to +4%
lightest red = under +1%
Here the complete map for 2008:
darkest red/blue = +20% or above
dark /redblue = +15% to +20%
red/blue = +10% to +15%
light red/blue = +4% to +10%
lightest red/blue = +0% to 4%
Here we can easily see the geographic difference in power bases: the core Democratic counties are in the eastern portion of the state, especially the northeast and central border counties, plus Polk county in the center of the state. The core GOP counties are in the western part of the state, especially in the NW and SW border counties. The line of Democratic counties stretching across the middle of the state from east to west correspond to the so-called „I-80“ corridor. Generally, the party that wins most of the counties along this corridor wins the state.
Here is a trend map for the state. 98 counties trended more or less democratic. Only one, Clarke county (DEM retention), trended slightly Republican:
Based on the trends, the SW corner of the state (close to Council Bluffs), strong GOP terrritory, is potential battleground territory in 2012. This is logical, as Council Bluffs continues to grow in size.
Here is a map of Iowa, showing the population density of the state, by region:
Here we can see the majority of large population centers going through the middle of the state. Here is an interstate map of Iowa:
Here a review of those pick-up counties, first by descending partisan shift:
|
County |
Region |
G Rate |
% of PV'08 |
% of PV'04 |
Diff. |
Margin |
Partisan shift |
|
SW |
-5.12% |
0.14% |
0.15% |
-0.01% |
+3.26% |
+17.89% |
|
|
NC-Tip |
+2.23% |
0.40% |
0.39% |
+0.01% |
+8.61% |
+16.47% |
|
|
NC-C |
-6.74% |
0.33% |
0.37% |
-0.03% |
+1.44% |
+15.71% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
0.00% |
0.46% |
0.47% |
-0.01% |
+14.25% |
+15.39% |
|
|
WC |
-0.70% |
0.47% |
0.48% |
-0.01% |
+5.15% |
+15.29% |
|
|
NE |
+0.73% |
0.84% |
0.85% |
-0.01% |
+9.31% |
+14.32% |
|
|
WC |
-1.23% |
0.68% |
0.70% |
-0.02% |
+3.66% |
+13.85% |
|
|
NE-EC |
-3.23% |
0.58% |
0.61% |
-0.03% |
+6.02% |
+13.42% |
|
|
NC-NW |
-1.71% |
0.59% |
0.61% |
-0.02% |
+3.25% |
+13.08% |
|
|
SW-WC |
-4.34% |
0.22% |
0.24% |
-0.01% |
+3.06% |
+12.80% |
|
|
E-EC |
-0.30% |
0.63% |
0.64% |
-0.01% |
+9.64% |
+10.90% |
|
|
SW |
-1.07% |
0.38% |
0.40% |
-0.01% |
+3.70% |
+10.70% |
|
|
C |
-0.98% |
0.58% |
0.59% |
-0.02% |
+0.88% |
+10.49% |
|
|
C |
-2.61% |
1.21% |
1.27% |
-0.06% |
+9.35% |
+9.94% |
|
|
SE |
+0.10% |
0.32% |
0.33% |
-0.01% |
+4.25% |
+9.84% |
|
|
NW-NC |
-2.73% |
0.33% |
0.34% |
-0.02% |
+3.93% |
+9.59% |
|
|
EC-SE |
+1.11% |
0.56% |
0.56% |
0.00 |
+0.16% |
+8.48% |
|
|
C |
-3.05% |
0.53% |
0.55% |
-0.03% |
+1.30% |
+6.96% |
|
|
SC |
+7.96% |
1.62% |
1.53% |
+0.09% |
+0.62% |
+6.83% |
|
|
NC-NW |
-7.38% |
0.31% |
0.34% |
-0.03% |
+2.79% |
+6.49% |
|
|
C-WC |
-7.67% |
0.31% |
0.35% |
-0.03% |
+0.46% |
+1.78% |
Here a review of those pick-up counties, descending, by margin:
|
County |
Region |
G Rate |
% of PV'08 |
% of PV'04 |
Diff. |
Margin |
Partisan shift |
|
NE-Tip |
0.00% |
0.46% |
0.47% |
-0.01% |
+14.25% |
+15.39% |
|
|
E-EC |
-0.30% |
0.63% |
0.64% |
-0.01% |
+9.64% |
+10.90% |
|
|
C |
-2.61% |
1.21% |
1.27% |
-0.06% |
+9.35% |
+9.94% |
|
|
NE |
+0.73% |
0.84% |
0.85% |
-0.01% |
+9.31% |
+14.32% |
|
|
NC-Tip |
+2.23% |
0.40% |
0.39% |
+0.01% |
+8.61% |
+16.47 |
|
|
NE-EC |
-3.23% |
0.58% |
0.61% |
-0.03% |
+6.02% |
+13.42% |
|
|
WC |
-0.70% |
0.47% |
0.48% |
-0.01% |
+5.15% |
+15.29% |
|
|
SE |
+0.10% |
0.32% |
0.33% |
-0.01% |
+4.25% |
+9.84% |
|
|
NW-NC |
-2.73% |
0.33% |
0.34% |
-0.02% |
+3.93% |
+9.59% |
|
|
SW |
-1.07% |
0.38% |
0.40% |
-0.01% |
+3.70% |
+10.70% |
|
|
WC |
-1.23% |
0.68% |
0.70% |
-0.02% |
+3.66% |
+13.85% |
|
|
SW |
-5.12% |
0.14% |
0.15% |
-0.01% |
+3.26% |
+17.89% |
|
|
NC-NW |
-1.71% |
0.59% |
0.61% |
-0.02% |
+3.25% |
+13.08% |
|
|
SW-WC |
-4.34% |
0.22% |
0.24% |
-0.01% |
+3.06% |
+12.80% |
|
|
NC-NW |
-7.38% |
0.31% |
0.34% |
-0.03% |
+2.79% |
+6.49% |
|
|
NC-C |
-6.74% |
0.33% |
0.37% |
-0.03% |
+1.44% |
+15.71% |
|
|
C |
-3.05% |
0.53% |
0.55% |
-0.03% |
+1.30% |
+6.96% |
|
|
C |
-0.98% |
0.58% |
0.59% |
-0.02% |
+0.88% |
+10.49% |
|
|
SC |
+7.96% |
1.62% |
1.53% |
+0.09% |
+0.62% |
+6.83% |
|
|
C-WC |
-7.67% |
0.31% |
0.35% |
-0.03% |
+0.46% |
+1.78% |
|
|
EC-SE |
+1.11% |
0.56% |
0.56% |
0.00 |
+0.16% |
+8.48% |
And finally, a review of those pick-up counties, descending, % of the 2008 PV:
|
County |
Region |
G Rate |
% of PV'08 |
% of PV'04 |
Diff. |
Margin |
Partisan shift |
|
SC |
+7.96% |
1.62% |
1.53% |
+0.09% |
+0.62% |
+6.83% |
|
|
C |
-2.61% |
1.21% |
1.27% |
-0.06% |
+9.35% |
+9.94% |
|
|
NE |
+0.73% |
0.84% |
0.85% |
-0.01% |
+9.31% |
+14.32% |
|
|
WC |
-1.23% |
0.68% |
0.70% |
-0.02% |
+3.66% |
+13.85% |
|
|
E-EC |
-0.30% |
0.63% |
0.64% |
-0.01% |
+9.64% |
+10.90% |
|
|
NC-NW |
-1.71% |
0.59% |
0.61% |
-0.02% |
+3.25% |
+13.08% |
|
|
C |
-0.98% |
0.58% |
0.59% |
-0.02% |
+0.88% |
+10.49% |
|
|
NE-EC |
-3.23% |
0.58% |
0.61% |
-0.03% |
+6.02% |
+13.42% |
|
|
EC-SE |
+1.11% |
0.56% |
0.56% |
0.00 |
+0.16% |
+8.48% |
|
|
C |
-3.05% |
0.53% |
0.55% |
-0.03% |
+1.30% |
+6.96% |
|
|
WC |
-0.70% |
0.47% |
0.48% |
-0.01% |
+5.15% |
+15.29% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
0.00% |
0.46% |
0.47% |
-0.01% |
+14.25% |
+15.39% |
|
|
NC-Tip |
+2.23% |
0.40% |
0.39% |
+0.01% |
+8.61% |
+16.47 |
|
|
SW |
-1.07% |
0.38% |
0.40% |
-0.01% |
+3.70% |
+10.70% |
|
|
NW-NC |
-2.73% |
0.33% |
0.34% |
-0.02% |
+3.93% |
+9.59% |
|
|
NC-C |
-6.74% |
0.33% |
0.37% |
-0.03% |
+1.44% |
+15.71% |
|
|
SE |
+0.10% |
0.32% |
0.33% |
-0.01% |
+4.25% |
+9.84% |
|
|
NC-NW |
-7.38% |
0.31% |
0.34% |
-0.03% |
+2.79% |
+6.49% |
|
|
C-WC |
-7.67% |
0.31% |
0.35% |
-0.03% |
+0.46% |
+1.78% |
|
|
SW-WC |
-4.34% |
0.22% |
0.24% |
-0.01% |
+3.06% |
+12.80% |
|
|
SW |
-5.12% |
0.14% |
0.15% |
-0.01% |
+3.26% |
+17.89% |
12 of these 21 pick-ups have a partisan shift larger than the statewide partisan shift, and 15 of them have a partisan shift larger than the national partisan shift. These 4 pick-ups together accounted for 11.49% of the statewide PV.
How to predict as 2012 nears? Here is a table of the closest county by county races (margin: under +4%), the so-called „tipping point“ counties (winning margin: less than 4%):
Alphabetically:
|
County |
Region |
Obama % |
McCain % |
Margin |
O-shift |
M-shift |
Partisan Shift |
|
USA |
-- |
52.88% |
45.61% |
+7.27% |
+4.62% |
-5.12% |
+9.73% |
|
Iowa |
-- |
53.93% |
44.39% |
+9.53% |
+4.69% |
-5.51% |
+10.20% |
|
----- |
-- |
------ |
------ |
------ |
----- |
----- |
|
|
SW |
47.47% |
50.83% |
+3.36% |
+4.37% |
-5.32% |
-9.69% |
|
|
SW |
50.68% |
47.42% |
+3.26% |
+8.66% |
-9.23% |
+17.89% |
|
|
SE-SC |
48.07% |
49.94% |
+1.88% |
+0.58% |
-1.84% |
-2.42% |
|
|
SW-WC |
50.61% |
47.56% |
+3.06% |
+5.85% |
-6.95% |
+12.80% |
|
|
NW |
48.40% |
50.15% |
+1.76% |
+6.94% |
-7.41% |
-14.34% |
|
|
WC |
51.01% |
47.35% |
+3.66% |
+6.45% |
-7.40% |
+13.85% |
|
|
SC |
49.90% |
47.65% |
+2.25% |
-0.98% |
-0.53% |
-0.44% |
|
|
SC |
48.37% |
49.20% |
+0.83% |
+2.02% |
-2.86% |
-4.88% |
|
|
NW-NC |
51.25% |
47.32% |
+3.93% |
+4.60% |
-4.99% |
+9.59% |
|
|
NC-C |
50.01% |
48.57& |
+1.44% |
+7.63% |
-8.08% |
+15.71% |
|
|
SW-Tip |
47.43% |
51.05% |
+3.62% |
+8.82% |
-9.34% |
-18.17% |
|
|
C-WC |
49.35% |
48.90% |
+0.46% |
+0.36% |
-1.42% |
+1.78% |
|
|
C |
49.72% |
48.42% |
+1.30% |
+2.99% |
-3.97% |
+6.96% |
|
|
NC |
47.30% |
50.86% |
+3.56% |
+5.24% |
-6.18% |
-11.41% |
|
|
C |
49.58% |
48.70% |
+0.88% |
+4.71% |
-5.78% |
+10.49% |
|
|
EC-SE |
49.16% |
48.99% |
+0.16 |
+3.72% |
-4.76% |
+8.48% |
|
|
SE |
46.96% |
50.58% |
+3.62% |
+5.10% |
-6.34% |
-11.44% |
|
|
NC-NW |
50.82% |
47.57% |
+3.25% |
+6.19% |
-6.89% |
+13.08% |
|
|
WC |
47.87% |
50.26% |
+2.42% |
+0.07% |
-1.05% |
-1.13% |
|
|
NC-NW |
50.50% |
47.71% |
+2.79% |
+2.69% |
-3.80% |
+6.49% |
|
|
SW |
48.28% |
50.18% |
+1.89% |
+7.86% |
-8.55% |
-16.40% |
|
|
SW |
50.73% |
47.02% |
+3.70% |
+4.78% |
-5.92% |
+10.70% |
|
|
SE |
48.64% |
49.36% |
+0.72% |
+5.65% |
-6.56% |
-12.21% |
|
|
WC |
49.05% |
49.58% |
+0.53% |
+0.51% |
-1.22% |
-1.73% |
|
|
C-NC |
48.51% |
50.01% |
+1.50% |
+4.13% |
-4.98% |
-9.12% |
|
|
Total (Avg): |
---- |
49.05% |
49.27% |
+0.22% |
+4.31% |
-5.14% |
-9.45% |
Sorted by Margin, descending:
|
County |
Region |
Obama % |
McCain % |
Margin |
O-shift |
M-shift |
Partisan Shift |
|
USA |
-- |
52.88% |
45.61% |
+7.27% |
+4.62% |
-5.12% |
+9.73% |
|
Iowa |
-- |
53.93% |
44.39% |
+9.53% |
+4.69% |
-5.51% |
+10.20% |
|
----- |
-- |
------ |
------ |
------ |
----- |
----- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NW-NC |
51.25% |
47.32% |
+3.93% |
+4.60% |
-4.99% |
+9.59% |
|
|
SW |
50.73% |
47.02% |
+3.70% |
+4.78% |
-5.92% |
+10.70% |
|
|
WC |
51.01% |
47.35% |
+3.66% |
+6.45% |
-7.40% |
+13.85% |
|
|
SW-Tip |
47.43% |
51.05% |
+3.62% |
+8.82% |
-9.34% |
-18.17% |
|
|
SE |
46.96% |
50.58% |
+3.62% |
+5.10% |
-6.34% |
-11.44% |
|
|
NC |
47.30% |
50.86% |
+3.56% |
+5.24% |
-6.18% |
-11.41% |
|
|
SW |
47.47% |
50.83% |
+3.36% |
+4.37% |
-5.32% |
-9.69% |
|
|
SW |
50.68% |
47.42% |
+3.26% |
+8.66% |
-9.23% |
+17.89% |
|
|
NC-NW |
50.82% |
47.57% |
+3.25% |
+6.19% |
-6.89% |
+13.08% |
|
|
SW-WC |
50.61% |
47.56% |
+3.06% |
+5.85% |
-6.95% |
+12.80% |
|
|
NC-NW |
50.50% |
47.71% |
+2.79% |
+2.69% |
-3.80% |
+6.49% |
|
|
WC |
47.87% |
50.26% |
+2.42% |
+0.07% |
-1.05% |
-1.13% |
|
|
SC |
49.90% |
47.65% |
+2.25% |
-0.98% |
-0.53% |
-0.44% |
|
|
SW |
48.28% |
50.18% |
+1.89% |
+7.86% |
-8.55% |
-16.40% |
|
|
SE-SC |
48.07% |
49.94% |
+1.88% |
+0.58% |
-1.84% |
-2.42% |
|
|
NW |
48.40% |
50.15% |
+1.76% |
+6.94% |
-7.41% |
-14.34% |
|
|
C-NC |
48.51% |
50.01% |
+1.50% |
+4.13% |
-4.98% |
-9.12% |
|
|
NC-C |
50.01% |
48.57& |
+1.44% |
+7.63% |
-8.08% |
+15.71% |
|
|
C |
49.72% |
48.42% |
+1.30% |
+2.99% |
-3.97% |
+6.96% |
|
|
C |
49.58% |
48.70% |
+0.88% |
+4.71% |
-5.78% |
+10.49% |
|
|
SC |
48.37% |
49.20% |
+0.83% |
+2.02% |
-2.86% |
-4.88% |
|
|
SE |
48.64% |
49.36% |
+0.72% |
+5.65% |
-6.56% |
-12.21% |
|
|
WC |
49.05% |
49.58% |
+0.53% |
+0.51% |
-1.22% |
-1.73% |
|
|
C-WC |
49.35% |
48.90% |
+0.46% |
+0.36% |
-1.42% |
+1.78% |
|
|
EC-SE |
49.16% |
48.99% |
+0.16% |
+3.72% |
-4.76% |
+8.48% |
|
|
Total (Avg): |
---- |
49.05% |
49.27% |
+0.22% |
+4.31% |
-5.14% |
-9.45% |
And of these 25 counties, the five tipping-point counties from 2004 that remained tipping-point counties in 2008:
|
County |
Region |
Obama % |
McCain % |
Margin |
O-shift |
M-shift |
Partisan Shift |
|
USA |
-- |
52.88% |
45.61% |
+7.27% |
+4.62% |
-5.12% |
+9.73% |
|
Iowa |
-- |
53.93% |
44.39% |
+9.53% |
+4.69% |
-5.51% |
+10.20% |
|
----- |
-- |
------ |
------ |
------ |
----- |
----- |
--- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NC-NW |
50.50% |
47.71% |
+2.79% |
+2.69% |
-3.80% |
+6.49% |
|
|
SC |
49.90% |
47.65% |
+2.25% |
-0.98% |
-0.53% |
-0.44% |
|
|
WC |
47.87% |
50.26% |
+2.42% |
+0.07% |
-1.05% |
-1.13% |
|
|
WC |
49.05% |
49.58% |
+0.53% |
+0.51% |
-1.22% |
-1.73% |
|
|
C-WC |
49.35% |
48.90% |
+0.46% |
+0.36% |
-1.42% |
+1.78% |
|
|
Total (Avg): |
---- |
49.10% |
49.43% |
+0.33% |
+0.64% |
-1.44% |
-2.08% |
Here a map of just the 25 tipping point counties (the five counties that were tipping point counties in both '04 and '08 are marked with „'04“):
Of the 25 „tipping-point“ counties, 12 were barely won by
McCain and 13 were barely won by Obama (12 democratic pick-ups, 1
democratic retention). McCain lost slightly more on percent than
Obama gained in all counties but one – Clarke
county, which trended +0.44% Republican.
The largest prize of these tipping-point counties is Woodbury county,
which accounted for 2.92% of the statewide PV.
The direction of THESE counties in 2012 will give us a very good early indication of who will win the state: Obama or his GOP opponent. We see the majority of the Democratic tipping point counties in the center of the state, from north-central to south-central. And most of the Republican tipping point counties are in the western part of the state. The safest bet for predicting Iowa in 2012 is to see how the 5 tipping point counties that were so in both 2004 and 2008 are trending: Palo Alto, Clarke, Green, Monona and Woodbury counties. If Monona and Woodbury counties, traditionally GOP landslide counties, are trending strongly for Obama in 2012, then it is a sure thing that he will retain Iowa and with a larger margin than in 2008. And if Monona and Woodbury are trending for Obama, then Fremont county (Council Bluffs) and Keokee county are very likely to follow. If, however, Palo Alto, Clarke and Green counties trend strongly GOP, then this is a sure sign that the state has returned to the battleground category and would be a prime target for the GOP to pick-up.
Conclusion:
In INDIANA, every single county trended more or less democratic, without exception – there was a blue shift that moved the entire state and those overwhelmingly white, rural counties contributed greatly to Obama's narrow win here – yes, the counties that he still lost to McCain. This shows a large level of GOP defection to Obama in 2008. Here, Obama gained 405,028 raw votes over Kerry from 2004, while McCain lost 133,790 raw votes over Bush from 2004, an uneven shift. Indiana's PV growth rate over 2004 was 11.47%. And Obama won by +1.03%.
In OHIO, not every county trended democratic (11 trended GOP), but there were no GOP county pick-ups. Also, in Ohio, the largest cities, all five of them, played the crucial role in moving the state into the democratic column and those overwhelmingly white, rural counties contributed very little to Obama's narrow win, in contrast to Indiana. Surely there were some moderate GOP defections, but there were also a moderate amount of newly registered voters. Here, Obama gained 198,877 raw votes over Kerry's total from 2004, while McCain lost 181,948 raw votes over Bush's total from 2004, a moderate mirror image shift. Ohio's PV growth rate over 2004 was a nominal 1.36%, way under the national PV growth rate of 7.46%. And Obama won by +4.58%.
In VIRGINIA, there was real resistance to Obama, but in counties that are „emptying out“, so to speak. There was a large poli-demographic shift in VA, with the north and the SE gaining greatly in political strength for the democratic party. Here there were obviously far fewer GOP defections, if at all (McCain scored more raw votes in VA than Bush from 2004), but far more newly registered and democratic dedicated voters. Most importantly, a +6.30% winning margin is hardly a battleground margin. It is a better margin than Obama scored in OHIO, Iowa, INDIANA and Iowa. It is a lean winning margin, but a comfortable one and will require a minimum 12.60% shift back to the GOP in order to regain the state, and I doubt that this shift will come from those 500,000 new voters. The worst case scenario for the GOP is that Obama cements Virginia into the democratic column in his first term, adding the state to core democratic territory and thus making the electoral math for the GOP more difficult.
In NORTH CAROLINA, Obama achieved a democratic trend in 92 of 100 counties and there were no GOP pick-up counties (see: INDIANA; OHIO). However, there were no counties with partisan shifts above 21%. In Virginia, there were 8 such counties. In Indiana, there were 40 such counties. The densely populated areas pulled through for Obama and he held McCain's winning margins in the red counties low enough to squeak through a bare win.
In FLORIDA, Obama's GOTV effort and hard campaigning were enough to swing Tampa (Hillsborough county) and Clearwater (Pinellas county) back to the democratic party. But the trend was very uneven in Iowa and the GOP achieved a higher numeric percentage of GOP trending counties than in Indiana, Ohio, Virginia or North Carolina. It is indeed fascinating that the very counties that remained true to Jimmy Carter in his 1980 election defeat are now rock-solid republican counties or counties trending republican. There is no statistical indication that race is a factor in this, for most of those counties did not go for either Bill Clinton or Al Gore, both also southern democrats. The explanation is that as these counties are „empyting out“ and losing on electoral firepower, the population that is remaining is more conservatively oriented. Without a doubt, Iowa will continue to be a bitter battleground for cycles to come.
In IOWA, Obama's win was a sweeping one, reminiscent of Bill Clinton's win from 1992, or even more accurately, of Michael Dukakis' win from 1988, and came closest to the national partisan shift, or „swing“. It was also the most likely pick-up, based on the state's performance in the 2004 GE. A 21 county pick-up and a 98 county trend for the Democratic part in this state is a sign of serious political change and should be a cause of genuine concern for Republican statisticians. Additionally, the continuing trend toward larger urban areas and a slow „emptying“ of rural areas is generally advantageous to the Democratic party. This makes a strong argument for the Democratic party for 2012 and increases the chances that Iowa will be a Democratic retention in the next cycle.
On the other hand, when 25% of all Iowa counties are tipping-point counties (practically all Democratic pick-ups plus some quirky outlier counties) looking forward to 2012, then the state is certainly not cemented into the Democratic column, not yet. Additionally, Iowa will probably be the first primary of 2012, and assuming that Obama runs unchallenged for re-election, then the GOP will have the greater opportunity to do massive voter registration and build excitement on the ground in the Hawkeye state as the Democratic party did in 2008. Most likely, Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin will be visiting Iowa often, starting in early 2010.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
APPENDIX
DEM total: Adams, Allamakee, Audubon, Benten, Blackhawk, Boone, Bremer, Buchanan, Caroll, Cedar, Cerro Gordo, Chickasaw, Clarke, Clayton, Clinton, Crawford, Delaware, Des Moines, Dubuque, Emmett, Fayette, Floyd, Franklin, Greene, Hamilton, Hardin, Howard, Iowa, Jackson, Jasper, Jefferson, Johnson, Jones, Kossuth, Lee, Linn, Louisa, Marshall,Mitchell, Muscatine,Palo Alto, Polk, Poweshiek, Scott, Story, Tama, Union, Wapello, Warren, Webster, Winnebago, Winneshiek, Worth (53: 32 retentions, 21 pick-ups)
GOP trending (1 DEM retention): Clarke (-0.44%),
GOP, % gain: 0
DEM % loss: Monroe, Ringold,
Ind % loss: Clay
GOP numeric GAIN: Dallas
DEM numeric loss: Cherokee, Davis, Jasper, Lee, Monona, Monroe, Palo Alto, Pocohontas, Ringold, Van Buren, Wayne
IND numeric loss: Clay, Plymouth