Iowa 2008 – County by County - Part II
County-wide analysis:
Here is a table of all 99 counties in Iowa, in descending order of partisan shift. This table is based on the raw numbers from the excel document. Also included is the county's % of the statewide PV from 2008 and 2004, plus the difference between the two („% shift“, known as „partisan shift“ or „swing“), and the winning margin.
There are some new components in this table that were first introduced in the Virginia analysis:
There is a column for region in the state, which I have divided into five regions (PANHANDLE, N / (NC), C, (SC) / SW, SE).
There is also a column for the individual growth rate for each county, regardless of it's take in the statewide PV. So, it is possible for a very small county to have a large growth rate and still reflect a smaller percentage of the statewide popular vote.
Legend:
A negative partisan shift in red (GOP) means the same thing as a positive partisan shift in blue (DEM) and visa-versa. Red shading=GOP. Blue shading = DEM pick-up.
An underlined value indicates a number that appears to be wrong by 1/100th of a percentage point, but is not -due to rounding to the next 1/100th of a percent.
County | Region | G Rate | % of PV'08 | % of PV'04 | Diff. | Margin | Partisan shift |
NE-Tip | +4.64% | 0.73% | 0.72% | +0.02% | +22.65% | +22.37% | |
SW-Tip | -2.05% | 0.48% | 0.50% | -0.02% | +19.72% | -20.64% | |
SW | -4.81% | 0.34% | 0.37% | -0.02% | +10.61% | -20.03% | |
SW-WC | -3.22% | 0.42% | 0.44% | -0.02% | +9.68% | -18.82% | |
SW | -1.26% | 0.49% | 0.51% | -0.02% | +4.67% | -18.43% | |
SW-Tip | -0.38% | 0.25% | 0.26% | -0.01% | +3.62% | -18.17% | |
SW | -5.12% | 0.14% | 0.15% | -0.01% | +3.26% | +17.89% | |
SW | -2.53% | 0.48% | 0.50% | -0.02% | +10.81% | -17.25% | |
NC-Tip | +2.23% | 0.40% | 0.39% | +0.01% | +8.61% | +16.47 | |
SW | +1.21% | 2.75% | 2.78% | -0.02% | +1.89% | -16.40% | |
NE | -1.25% | 0.67% | 0.69% | -0.02% | +16.60% | +16.05% | |
SW-Tip | +4.94% | 0.47% | 0.46% | +0.01% | +16.57% | -15.82% | |
NC-C | -6.74% | 0.33% | 0.37% | -0.03% | +1.44% | +15.71% | |
NE-Tip | 0.00% | 0.46% | 0.47% | -0.01% | +14.25% | +15.39% | |
WC | -0.70% | 0.47% | 0.48% | -0.01% | +5.15% | +15.29% | |
NE-NC | -0.91% | 0.53% | 0.54% | -0.02% | +21.88% | +14.49% | |
NW | -0.82% | 0.55% | 0.56% | -0.02% | +1.76% | -14.34% | |
NE | +0.73% | 0.84% | 0.85% | -0.01% | +9.31% | +14.32% | |
NE | -4.13% | 0.47% | 0.50% | -0.03% | +4.69% | -14.25% | |
WC | -1.23% | 0.68% | 0.70% | -0.02% | +3.66% | +13.85% | |
NE-EC | -3.23% | 0.58% | 0.61% | -0.03% | +6.02% | +13.42% | |
NE | +0.68% | 0.31% | 0.31% | 0.00 | +25.78% | +13.30% | |
NC-NW | -1.71% | 0.59% | 0.61% | -0.02% | +3.25% | +13.08% | |
NE-EC | -0.29% | 0.44% | 0.45% | -0.01% | +16.91% | -12.92% | |
SE | +2.15% | 1.24% | 1.24% | 0.00 | +15.64% | +12.85% | |
SW-WC | -4.34% | 0.22% | 0.24% | -0.01% | +3.06% | +12.80% | |
NE | -1.94% | 0.58% | 0.61% | -0.02% | +17.17% | +12.55% | |
E-EC | +11.65% | 4.75% | 4.34% | +0.41% | +41.51% | +12.24% | |
SE | -0.55% | 0.69% | 0.71% | -0.02% | +0.72% | +12.21% | |
SC-SE | +1.92% | 0.71% | 0.71% | 0.00 | +16.53% | -12.07% | |
SW | -5.14% | 0.20% | 0.21% | -0.01% | +8.59% | -11.97% | |
EC | +4.42 | 5.62% | 5.49% | +0.13% | +14.54% | +11.93% | |
EC-C | -1.66% | 0.58% | 0.60% | -0.02% | +12.19% | +11.84% | |
EC | +2.37% | 7.38% | 7.35% | +0.03% | +21.53% | +11.60% | |
NW-Tip | +1.95% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.00 | +44.95% | -11.56% | |
SE | -2.15% | 0.35% | 0.36% | -0.01% | +3.62% | -11.44% | |
NC | +0.42% | 0.39% | 0.39% | -0.01% | +3.56% | -11.41% | |
NE-NC | -1.52% | 1.57% | 1.63% | -0.06% | +20.83% | +11.00% | |
SC-SE | -0.57% | 0.65% | 0.67% | -0.02% | +11.75% | +10.98% | |
NE-NC | -3.23% | 0.43% | 0.45% | -0.02% | +20.74% | +10.93% | |
E-EC | +1.38% | 4.21% | 4.24% | -0.03% | +22.41% | +10.92% | |
E-EC | -0.30% | 0.63% | 0.64% | -0.01% | +9.64% | +10.90% | |
NE-EC | -1.27% | 0.67% | 0.70% | -0.02% | +18.48% | +10.74% | |
SW | -1.07% | 0.38% | 0.40% | -0.01% | +3.70% | +10.70% | |
C | +24.15% | 2.12% | 1.74% | +0.38% | +5.53% | -10.70% | |
C | +4.32% | 3.03% | 2.96% | +0.07% | +16.21% | -10.67% | |
NW | -2.17% | 0.55% | 0.57% | -0.02% | +5.12% | -10.61% | |
NW-WC | -6.26% | 0.34% | 0.37% | -0.03% | +7.70% | -10.56% | |
NC | +3.30% | 0.28% | 0.27% | 0.00 | +22.42% | +10.51% | |
C | -0.98% | 0.58% | 0.59% | -0.02% | +0.88% | +10.49% | |
EC | +0.15% | 1.61% | 1.64% | -0.03% | +23.03% | +10.28% | |
EC-Tip | -0.54% | 0.65% | 0.66% | -0.02% | +24.39% | +10.27% | |
SE | +4.24% | 0.56% | 0.55% | +0.01% | +20.23% | +10.06% | |
NW | -4.19% | 0.20% | 0.22% | -0.01% | +31.64% | -10.03% | |
C | +5.82% | 13.95% | 13.45% | +0.50% | +14.61% | +9.97% | |
C | -2.61% | 1.21% | 1.27% | -0.06% | +9.35% | +9.94% | |
SE | +0.10% | 0.32% | 0.33% | -0.01% | +4.25% | +9.84% | |
NE | +5.22% | 0.38% | 0.36% | +0.01% | +12.31% | +9.78% | |
SC | +2.01% | 1.11% | 1.11% | 0.00 | +10.77% | -9.69% | |
SW | -5.26% | 0.26% | 0.28% | -0.02% | +3.36% | -9.69% | |
NW-NC | -2.73% | 0.33% | 0.34% | -0.02% | +3.93% | +9.59% | |
NW-Tip | +0.57% | 1.08% | 1.10% | -0.02% | +62.77% | -9.47% | |
C-NC | -3.15% | 0.42% | 0.44% | -0.02% | +1.50% | -9.12% | |
EC-SE | +1.11% | 0.56% | 0.56% | 0.00 | +0.16% | +8.48% | |
EC | +0.30% | 0.65% | 0.66% | -0.01% | +10.40% | +8.20% | |
WC | -6.01% | 0.23% | 0.25% | -0.02% | +16.41% | -8.15% | |
NC-NW | -5.97% | 0.33% | 0.36% | -0.03% | +8.89% | -8.10% | |
NW | +3.71% | 0.64% | 0.63% | +0.01% | +5.42% | -7.11% | |
EC-NE | +1.96% | 3.12% | 3.12% | 0.00 | +20.77% | +7.03% | |
C | -3.05% | 0.53% | 0.55% | -0.03% | +1.30% | +6.96% | |
SC | +7.96% | 1.62% | 1.53% | +0.09% | +0.62% | +6.83% | |
C | -0.56% | 0.91% | 0.93% | -0.02% | +7.63% | +6.51% | |
SE | -0.81% | 0.61% | 0.63% | -0.02% | +5.04% | -6.51% | |
NC-NW | -7.38% | 0.31% | 0.34% | -0.03% | +2.79% | +6.49% | |
NC-NW | -6.98% | 0.26% | 0.29% | -0.03% | +8.42% | -5.93% | |
SC | -2.08% | 0.29% | 0.30% | -0.01% | +6.72% | -5.44% | |
C-NC | -0.40% | 1.21% | 1.24% | -0.03% | +8.51% | +5.28% | |
SC | +2.37% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.00 | +0.83% | -4.88% | |
C-NC | -4.24% | 0.33% | 0.36% | -0.02% | +14.35% | -4.64% | |
SE | -5.84% | 0.23% | 0.25% | -0.02% | +12.18% | -4.58% | |
SC-SW | +5.96% | 0.55% | 0.53% | +0.02% | +9.98% | -4.49% | |
SC | -4.85% | 0.19% | 0.21% | -0.01% | +6.98% | -4.32% | |
C-SW | -2.42% | 0.38% | 0.40% | -0.02% | +7.68% | -4.19% | |
NW | -5.15% | 0.48% | 0.51% | -0.04% | +34.86% | -3.92% | |
NW | +2.40% | 0.81% | 0.81% | 0.00 | +25.06% | -3.84% | |
E-EC | +1.60% | 0.89% | 0.90% | 0.00 | +4.45% | +3.80% | |
NW | -6.30% | 0.41% | 0.45% | -0.04% | +7.57% | -3.76% | |
SE | -4.59% | 1.04% | 1.11% | -0.07% | +13.53% | +3.22% | |
SE-Tip | -1.44% | 1.34% | 1.39% | -0.05% | +23.04% | +2.76% | |
C | -3.19% | 1.26% | 1.33% | -0.07% | +7.50% | +2.67% | |
SE-SC | -4.20% | -0.40% | -0.43% | -0.03% | +1.88% | -2.42% | |
C-WC | -7.67% | 0.31% | 0.35% | -0.03% | +0.46% | +1.78% | |
WC | +1.40% | 2.92% | 2.93% | -0.02% | +0.53% | -1.73% | |
SC-SE | -2.55% | 0.25% | 0.26% | -0.01% | +9.14% | -1.50% | |
WC | -4.40% | 0.31% | 0.33% | -0.02% | +2.42% | -1.13% | |
SE-Tip | -3.52% | 1.12% | 1.19% | -0.06% | +16.01% | +1.01% | |
SC-SW | -3.20% | 0.17% | 0.18% | -0.01% | +6.14% | -0.34% | |
SC-SE | -2.25% | 0.25% | 0.26% | -0.01% | +5.21% | -0.14% | |
-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- | |
SC | -2.65% | 0.29% | 0.30% | -0.01% | +2.25% | -0.44% |
How to interpret this table:
Example 1: Marshall county (pop. 39,311, county seat: Marshalltown), a Democratic pick-up from 2004,is an outstanding microcosm of what happened nationally: in Marshall county, which Bush barely carried by +0.59%, Obama flipped with +9.35%, making a partisan shift of +9.94% - very, very close to the national partisan shift of +9.73%. In Marshall county, Obama scored +4.43% over 2004 (nationally, it was +4.61%). McCain showed a loss of -5.49% (nationally, it was -5.12%). The county is 90.44% white and is statistically the center of population for the state, which in turn is the 25th largest state in the Union and practically dead-center, geographically. However, this county lost on electoral firepower: in 2004, it accounted for 1.27% of the statewide PV, in 2008, it accounted for 1.21% of the PV, a -0.06% change and a negative growth rate of -2.61%. As Iowa grows in population, the rural counties are starting to empty out and the urban counties are growing fast.
Example 2: Polk county (pop. 371,601, count seat: Des Moines), the largest county in Iowa, also accounted for the largest share of the statewide PV: 13.95%, +0.50% more than in 2004. The county grew at a higher rate than the state: +5.82%. And once again, Obama's partisan shift of +9.97% over 2004 comes very, very close to the national partisan shift. Here Obama picked up 15,766 votes (more than Bush's winning margin for the entire state in 2004), while McCain lost 6,160 votes over 2004.
Example 3: Dallas county (pop. 40,750, county seat: Adel) had the highest growth rate of any county in Iowa: +25.15%, and increased it's share of the state PV from 1.74% in 2004 to 2.12% in 2008, a +0.38% increase. It is also the only county where McCain scored more raw votes than Bush from 2004, exactly 1,771 more votes. However, Obama scored 4,232 more votes than Kerry from 2004, a vote increase ratio of 2.39 to 1, and that in a traditionally very republican county. The margin shift here was -10.70, once again, close to the national trend. Statistically, the increase in this county is due mostly to the spike in the Democratic vote.
Example 4: Scott county (pop. 158,668, county seat: Davenport), the third largest county in Iowa, was the largest gain (percentually) for Obama in a large county, a partisan shift of +11.90%. It is also a very good example of a former tipping-point county (Kerry took the county by +2.62%, Gore won by +4.33% in 2000, Clinton won by +9.12% in 1996 and by +6.57% in 1992, Dukakis won by +5.14%) that became a landslide county: Obama by +14.54%, the largest Democratic margin in this county since 1964.
Example 5: Sioux county (pop. 31,589, county seat: Orange City), in the NW corner of the state, bordering South Dakota, is absolute GOP blowout territory. But even here, the partisan shift was -9.47% Yes, McCain won the county 80.95%-18.18%, which is a massive blowout. But George W. Bush, Jr. won Sioux county 85.87%-13.63%, a +72.24% margin. Statistics like this out of such deep, deep red counties prove the statewide trend toward the Democratic party and are reminiscent of the all-encompassing blue trend that occured in Indiana.
Example 6: Washington county (SE, pop. 20,670, county seat: Washington), Wright county (C, pop.14,334, county seat: Clarion), Fremont county (SW, pop. 8,010, county seat: Sidney) and Pottawattamie county (SW, pop. 87,704, county seat: Council Bluffs) are four very good examples of counties that went for Bush in 2004 by landslides and are now new GOP tipping point counties. The importance of this is that these counties are from different corners of the state. Here a quick table to illustrate:
County | Region | Margin '04 | Margin '08 | Partisan Shift |
Wright | C | +10.62% | +1.50% | -9.12% |
Washington | SE | +12.93% | +0.72% | -12.71% |
Pottawatamie | SW | +18.30% | +1.89% | -16.40% |
Fremont | SW | +21.78% | +3.62% | -18.17% |
Concerning the margin-shifts from the above table, here a numeric breakdown, for the democratic party for six states:
Partisan-shift range | IOWA | OHIO | INDIANA |
---------------------- | No (%) of | No (%) of 88 | No (%) 92 |
+30% and higher | 0 (0.00%) | 0 (0.00%) | 5 (0.54%) |
+25% to 25.99% | 0 (0.00%) | 0 (0.00%) | 12 (13.01%) |
+20% to +24.99% | 3 (3.03%) | 1 (1.14%) | 41 (44.57%) |
+15% to +19.99% | 12 (12.12%) | 7 (7.95%) | 16 (17.39%) |
+10% to +14.99% | 39 (39.39%) | 15 (17.06%) | 10 (10.87%) |
+5% to +9.99% | 23 (23.23%) | 30 (34.09%) | 6 (6.52%) |
+1% to +4.99% | 19 (19.19%) | 19 (21.59%) | 2 (2.17%) |
+0% to +0.99% | 2 (2.01%) | 5 (5.68%) | 0 (0.00%) |
-0% to -0.99% | 1 (1.01%) | 2 (2.27%) | 0 (0.00%) |
-1% to -4.99% | 0 (0.00%) | 9 (10.22%) | 0 (0.00%) |
-5% to -9.99% | 0 (0.00%) | 0 (0.00%) | 0 (0.00%) |
-10% to -14.99% | 0 (0.00%) | 0 (0.00%) | 0 (0.00%) |
-15% to -19.99% | 0 (0.00%) | 0 (0.00%) | 0 (0.00%) |
Partisan-shift range | FLORIDA | NORTH CAROLINA | VIRGINIA |
---------------------- | No (%) of | No (%) of 100 | No (%) of 134 |
+30% and higher | 0 (0.00%) | 0 (0.00%) | 0 (0.00%) |
+25% to 25.99% | 0 (0.00%) | 0 (0.00%) | 3 (2.24%) |
+20% to +24.99% | 1 (1.49%) | 2 (2.00%) | 8 (5.97%) |
+15% to +19.99% | 1 (1.49%) | 9 (9.00%) | 26 (19.40%) |
+10% to +14.99% | 10 (14.93%) | 29 (29.00%) | 37 (27.62%) |
+5% to +9.99% | 17 (25.37%) | 29 (29.00%) | 35 (26.12%) |
+1% to +4.99% | 11 (16.42%) | 22 (22.00%) | 14 (10.45%) |
+0% to +0.99% | 2 (2.99%) | 2 (2.00%) | 2 (1.49%) |
-0% to -0.99% | 3 (4.48%) | 2 (2.00%) | 2 (1.49%) |
-1% to -4.99% | 11 (16.42%) | 5 (5.00%) | 2 (1.49%) |
-5% to -9.99% | 7 (10.45%) | 1 (1.00%) | 0 (0.00%) |
-10% to -14.99% | 4 (5.97%) | 0 (0.00%) | 4 (2.99%) |
-15% to -19.99% | 0 (0.00%) | 0 (0.00%) | 1 (0.75%) |
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Here the 99 county table again, re-sorted by winning margin:
County | Region | G Rate | % of PV'08 | % of PV'04 | Diff. | Margin | Partisan shift |
E-EC | +11.65% | 4.75% | 4.34% | +0.41% | +41.51% | +12.24% | |
NE | +0.68% | 0.31% | 0.31% | 0.00 | +25.78% | +13.30% | |
EC-Tip | -0.54% | 0.65% | 0.66% | -0.02% | +24.39% | +10.27% | |
SE-Tip | -1.44% | 1.34% | 1.39% | -0.05% | +23.04% | +2.76% | |
EC | +0.15% | 1.61% | 1.64% | -0.03% | +23.03% | +10.28% | |
NE-Tip | +4.64% | 0.73% | 0.72% | +0.02% | +22.65 % | +22.37 % | |
NC | +3.30% | 0.28% | 0.27% | 0.00 | +22.42% | +10.51% | |
E-EC | +1.38% | 4.21% | 4.24% | -0.03% | +22.41% | +10.92% | |
NE-NC | -0.91% | 0.53% | 0.54% | -0.02% | +21.88% | +14.49% | |
EC | +2.37% | 7.38% | 7.35% | +0.03% | +21.53% | +11.60% | |
NE-NC | -1.52% | 1.57% | 1.63% | -0.06% | +20.83% | +11.00% | |
EC-NE | +1.96% | 3.12% | 3.12% | 0.00 | +20.77% | +7.03% | |
NE-NC | -3.23% | 0.43% | 0.45% | -0.02% | +20.74% | +10.93% | |
SE | +4.24% | 0.56% | 0.55% | +0.01% | +20.23% | +10.06% | |
NE-EC | -1.27% | 0.67% | 0.70% | -0.02% | +18.48% | +10.74% | |
NE | -1.94% | 0.58% | 0.61% | -0.02% | +17.17% | +12.55% | |
NE | -1.25% | 0.67% | 0.69% | -0.02% | +16.60% | +16.05% | |
C | +4.32% | 3.03% | 2.96% | +0.07% | +16.21% | -10.67% | |
SE-Tip | -3.52% | 1.12% | 1.19% | -0.06% | +16.01% | +1.01% | |
SE | +2.15% | 1.24% | 1.24% | 0.00 | +15.64% | +12.85% | |
C | +5.82% | 13.95% | 13.45% | +0.50% | +14.61% | +9.97% | |
EC | +4.42 | 5.62% | 5.49% | +0.13% | +14.54% | +11.93% | |
NE-Tip | 0.00% | 0.46% | 0.47% | -0.01% | +14.25% | +15.39% | |
SE | -4.59% | 1.04% | 1.11% | -0.07% | +13.53% | +3.22% | |
NE | +5.22% | 0.38% | 0.36% | +0.01% | +12.31% | +9.78% | |
EC-C | -1.66% | 0.58% | 0.60% | -0.02% | +12.19% | +11.84% | |
SC-SE | -0.57% | 0.65% | 0.67% | -0.02% | +11.75% | +10.98% | |
EC | +0.30% | 0.65% | 0.66% | -0.01% | +10.40% | +8.20% | |
E-EC | -0.30% | 0.63% | 0.64% | -0.01% | +9.64% | +10.90% | |
C | -2.61% | 1.21% | 1.27% | -0.06% | +9.35% | +9.94% | |
NE | +0.73% | 0.84% | 0.85% | -0.01% | +9.31% | +14.32% | |
NC-Tip | +2.23% | 0.40% | 0.39% | +0.01% | +8.61% | +16.47 | |
C-NC | -0.40% | 1.21% | 1.24% | -0.03% | +8.51% | +5.28% | |
C | -0.56% | 0.91% | 0.93% | -0.02% | +7.63% | +6.51% | |
C | -3.19% | 1.26% | 1.33% | -0.07% | +7.50% | +2.67% | |
NE-EC | -3.23% | 0.58% | 0.61% | -0.03% | +6.02% | +13.42% | |
WC | -0.70% | 0.47% | 0.48% | -0.01% | +5.15% | +15.29% | |
E-EC | +1.60% | 0.89% | 0.90% | 0.00 | +4.45% | +3.80% | |
SE | +0.10% | 0.32% | 0.33% | -0.01% | +4.25% | +9.84% | |
NW-NC | -2.73% | 0.33% | 0.34% | -0.02% | +3.93% | +9.59% | |
SW | -1.07% | 0.38% | 0.40% | -0.01% | +3.70% | +10.70% | |
WC | -1.23% | 0.68% | 0.70% | -0.02% | +3.66% | +13.85% | |
SW | -5.12% | 0.14% | 0.15% | -0.01% | +3.26% | +17.89% | |
NC-NW | -1.71% | 0.59% | 0.61% | -0.02% | +3.25% | +13.08% | |
SW-WC | -4.34% | 0.22% | 0.24% | -0.01% | +3.06% | +12.80% | |
NC-NW | -7.38% | 0.31% | 0.34% | -0.03% | +2.79% | +6.49% | |
SC | -2.65% | 0.29% | 0.30% | -0.01% | +2.25% | -0.44% | |
NC-C | -6.74% | 0.33% | 0.37% | -0.03% | +1.44% | +15.71% | |
C | -3.05% | 0.53% | 0.55% | -0.03% | +1.30% | +6.96% | |
C | -0.98% | 0.58% | 0.59% | -0.02% | +0.88% | +10.49% | |
SC | +7.96% | 1.62% | 1.53% | +0.09% | +0.62% | +6.83% | |
C-WC | -7.67% | 0.31% | 0.35% | -0.03% | +0.46% | +1.78% | |
EC-SE | +1.11% | 0.56% | 0.56% | 0.00 | +0.16% | +8.48% | |
-- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
WC | +1.40% | 2.92% | 2.93% | -0.02% | +0.53% | -1.73% | |
SE | -0.55% | 0.69% | 0.71% | -0.02% | +0.72% | +12.21% | |
SC | +2.37% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.00 | +0.83% | -4.88% | |
C-NC | -3.15% | 0.42% | 0.44% | -0.02% | +1.50% | -9.12% | |
NW | -0.82% | 0.55% | 0.56% | -0.02% | +1.76% | -14.34% | |
SE-SC | -4.20% | -0.40% | -0.43% | -0.03% | +1.88% | -2.42% | |
SW | +1.21% | 2.75% | 2.78% | -0.02% | +1.89% | -16.40% | |
WC | -4.40% | 0.31% | 0.33% | -0.02% | +2.42% | -1.13% | |
NC | +0.42% | 0.39% | 0.39% | -0.01% | +3.56% | -11.41% | |
SW-Tip | -0.38% | 0.25% | 0.26% | -0.01% | +3.62% | -18.17% | |
SE | -2.15% | 0.35% | 0.36% | -0.01% | +3.62% | -11.44% | |
SW | -5.26% | 0.26% | 0.28% | -0.02% | +3.36% | -9.69% | |
SW | -1.26% | 0.49% | 0.51% | -0.02% | +4.67% | -18.43% | |
NE | -4.13% | 0.47% | 0.50% | -0.03% | +4.69% | -14.25% | |
SE | -0.81% | 0.61% | 0.63% | -0.02% | +5.04% | -6.51% | |
NW | -2.17% | 0.55% | 0.57% | -0.02% | +5.12% | -10.61% | |
SC-SE | -2.25% | 0.25% | 0.26% | -0.01% | +5.21% | -0.14% | |
NW | +3.71% | 0.64% | 0.63% | +0.01% | +5.42% | -7.11% | |
C | +24.15% | 2.12% | 1.74% | +0.38% | +5.53% | -10.70% | |
SC-SW | -3.20% | 0.17% | 0.18% | -0.01% | +6.14% | -0.34% | |
SC | -2.08% | 0.29% | 0.30% | -0.01% | +6.72% | -5.44% | |
SC | -4.85% | 0.19% | 0.21% | -0.01% | +6.98% | -4.32% | |
NW | -6.30% | 0.41% | 0.45% | -0.04% | +7.57% | -3.76% | |
C-SW | -2.42% | 0.38% | 0.40% | -0.02% | +7.68% | -4.19% | |
NW-WC | -6.26% | 0.34% | 0.37% | -0.03% | +7.70% | -10.56% | |
NC-NW | -6.98% | 0.26% | 0.29% | -0.03% | +8.42% | -5.93% | |
SW | -5.14% | 0.20% | 0.21% | -0.01% | +8.59% | -11.97% | |
NC-NW | -5.97% | 0.33% | 0.36% | -0.03% | +8.89% | -8.10% | |
SC-SE | -2.55% | 0.25% | 0.26% | -0.01% | +9.14% | -1.50% | |
SW-WC | -3.22% | 0.42% | 0.44% | -0.02% | +9.68% | -18.82% | |
SC-SW | +5.96% | 0.55% | 0.53% | +0.02% | +9.98% | -4.49% | |
SW | -4.81% | 0.34% | 0.37% | -0.02% | +10.61% | -20.03% | |
SC | +2.01% | 1.11% | 1.11% | 0.00 | +10.77% | -9.69% | |
SW | -2.53% | 0.48% | 0.50% | -0.02% | +10.81% | -17.25% | |
SE | -5.84% | 0.23% | 0.25% | -0.02% | +12.18% | -4.58% | |
C-NC | -4.24% | 0.33% | 0.36% | -0.02% | +14.35% | -4.64% | |
WC | -6.01% | 0.23% | 0.25% | -0.02% | +16.41% | -8.15% | |
SC-SE | +1.92% | 0.71% | 0.71% | 0.00 | +16.53% | -12.07% | |
SW-Tip | +4.94% | 0.47% | 0.46% | +0.01% | +16.57% | -15.82% | |
NE-EC | -0.29% | 0.44% | 0.45% | -0.01% | +16.91% | -12.92% | |
SW-Tip | -2.05% | 0.48% | 0.50% | -0.02% | +19.72% | -20.64% | |
NW | +2.40% | 0.81% | 0.81% | 0.00 | +25.06% | -3.84% | |
NW | -4.19% | 0.20% | 0.22% | -0.01% | +31.64% | -10.03% | |
NW | -5.15% | 0.48% | 0.51% | -0.04% | +34.86% | -3.92% | |
NW-Tip | +1.95% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.00 | +44.95% | -11.56% | |
NW-Tip | +0.57% | 1.08% | 1.10% | -0.02% | +62.77% | -9.47% |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here the 99 county table again, re-sorted in descending order of county size, based on % of statewide PV in 2008 (blue shading= DEM pick-up).
To get a picture of how unbalanced this all is between urban and rural counties:
the combined strength of the 50 smallest counties (making 14.03%) = the electoral strength of Polk County (Des Moines) alone (13.95%)
The combined strength of the 63 smallest counties (21.48%) = the electoral strength of the 2 largest counties combined: 21.33% from Polk and Linn (Cedar Rapids) counties!!
The top 11 counties in Iowa accounted for 51.47% of the statewide popular vote, which means that the other 88 counties roughly equalled the firepower of the top 11 counties. And the top 8 of those top 11 counties were democratic counties (43.68%).
County | Region | G Rate | % of PV'08 | % of PV'04 | Diff. | Margin | Partisan shift |
C | +5.82% | 13.95% | 13.45% | +0.50% | +14.61% | +9.97% | |
EC | +2.37% | 7.38% | 7.35% | +0.03% | +21.53% | +11.60% | |
EC | +4.42 | 5.62% | 5.49% | +0.13% | +14.54% | +11.93% | |
E-EC | +11.65% | 4.75% | 4.34% | +0.41% | +41.51% | +12.24% | |
E-EC | +1.38% | 4.21% | 4.24% | -0.03% | +22.41% | +10.92% | |
EC-NE | +1.96% | 3.12% | 3.12% | 0.00 | +20.77% | +7.03% | |
C | +4.32% | 3.03% | 2.96% | +0.07% | +16.21% | -10.67% | |
WC | +1.40% | 2.92% | 2.93% | -0.02% | +0.53% | -1.73% | |
SW | +1.21% | 2.75% | 2.78% | -0.02% | +1.89% | -16.40% | |
C | +24.15% | 2.12% | 1.74% | +0.38% | +5.53% | -10.70% | |
SC | +7.96% | 1.62% | 1.53% | +0.09% | +0.62% | +6.83% | |
EC | +0.15% | 1.61% | 1.64% | -0.03% | +23.03% | +10.28% | |
NE-NC | -1.52% | 1.57% | 1.63% | -0.06% | +20.83% | +11.00% | |
SE-Tip | -1.44% | 1.34% | 1.39% | -0.05% | +23.04% | +2.76% | |
C | -3.19% | 1.26% | 1.33% | -0.07% | +7.50% | +2.67% | |
SE | +2.15% | 1.24% | 1.24% | 0.00 | +15.64% | +12.85% | |
C-NC | -0.40% | 1.21% | 1.24% | -0.03% | +8.51% | +5.28% | |
C | -2.61% | 1.21% | 1.27% | -0.06% | +9.35% | +9.94% | |
SE-Tip | -3.52% | 1.12% | 1.19% | -0.06% | +16.01% | +1.01% | |
SC | +2.01% | 1.11% | 1.11% | 0.00 | +10.77% | -9.69% | |
NW-Tip | +0.57% | 1.08% | 1.10% | -0.02% | +62.77% | -9.47% | |
SE | -4.59% | 1.04% | 1.11% | -0.07% | +13.53% | +3.22% | |
C | -0.56% | 0.91% | 0.93% | -0.02% | +7.63% | +6.51% | |
E-EC | +1.60% | 0.89% | 0.90% | 0.00 | +4.45% | +3.80% | |
NE | +0.73% | 0.84% | 0.85% | -0.01% | +9.31% | +14.32% | |
NW | +2.40% | 0.81% | 0.81% | 0.00 | +25.06% | -3.84% | |
NE-Tip | +4.64% | 0.73% | 0.72% | +0.02% | +22.65% | +22.37% | |
SC-SE | +1.92% | 0.71% | 0.71% | 0.00 | +16.53% | -12.07% | |
SE | -0.55% | 0.69% | 0.71% | -0.02% | +0.72% | +12.21% | |
WC | -1.23% | 0.68% | 0.70% | -0.02% | +3.66% | +13.85% | |
NE | -1.25% | 0.67% | 0.69% | -0.02% | +16.60% | +16.05% | |
NE-EC | -1.27% | 0.67% | 0.70% | -0.02% | +18.48% | +10.74% | |
EC | +0.30% | 0.65% | 0.66% | -0.01% | +10.40% | +8.20% | |
EC-Tip | -0.54% | 0.65% | 0.66% | -0.02% | +24.39% | +10.27% | |
SC-SE | -0.57% | 0.65% | 0.67% | -0.02% | +11.75% | +10.98% | |
NW | +3.71% | 0.64% | 0.63% | +0.01% | +5.42% | -7.11% | |
E-EC | -0.30% | 0.63% | 0.64% | -0.01% | +9.64% | +10.90% | |
SE | -0.81% | 0.61% | 0.63% | -0.02% | +5.04% | -6.51% | |
NC-NW | -1.71% | 0.59% | 0.61% | -0.02% | +3.25% | +13.08% | |
C | -0.98% | 0.58% | 0.59% | -0.02% | +0.88% | +10.49% | |
EC-C | -1.66% | 0.58% | 0.60% | -0.02% | +12.19% | +11.84% | |
NE | -1.94% | 0.58% | 0.61% | -0.02% | +17.17% | +12.55% | |
NE-EC | -3.23% | 0.58% | 0.61% | -0.03% | +6.02% | +13.42% | |
SE | +4.24% | 0.56% | 0.55% | +0.01% | +20.23% | +10.06% | |
EC-SE | +1.11% | 0.56% | 0.56% | 0.00 | +0.16% | +8.48% | |
SC-SW | +5.96% | 0.55% | 0.53% | +0.02% | +9.98% | -4.49% | |
NW | -0.82% | 0.55% | 0.56% | -0.02% | +1.76% | -14.34% | |
NW | -2.17% | 0.55% | 0.57% | -0.02% | +5.12% | -10.61% | |
NE-NC | -0.91% | 0.53% | 0.54% | -0.02% | +21.88% | +14.49% | |
C | -3.05% | 0.53% | 0.55% | -0.03% | +1.30% | +6.96% | |
SW | -1.26% | 0.49% | 0.51% | -0.02% | +4.67% | -18.43% | |
NW | -5.15% | 0.48% | 0.51% | -0.04% | +34.86% | -3.92% | |
SW-Tip | -2.05% | 0.48% | 0.50% | -0.02% | +19.72% | -20.64% | |
SW | -2.53% | 0.48% | 0.50% | -0.02% | +10.81% | -17.25% | |
SW-Tip | +4.94% | 0.47% | 0.46% | +0.01% | +16.57% | -15.82% | |
WC | -0.70% | 0.47% | 0.48% | -0.01% | +5.15% | +15.29% | |
NE | -4.13% | 0.47% | 0.50% | -0.03% | +4.69% | -14.25% | |
NE-Tip | 0.00% | 0.46% | 0.47% | -0.01% | +14.25% | +15.39% | |
NE-EC | -0.29% | 0.44% | 0.45% | -0.01% | +16.91% | -12.92% | |
NE-NC | -3.23% | 0.43% | 0.45% | -0.02% | +20.74% | +10.93% | |
SW-WC | -3.22% | 0.42% | 0.44% | -0.02% | +9.68% | -18.82% | |
C-NC | -3.15% | 0.42% | 0.44% | -0.02% | +1.50% | -9.12% | |
NW | -6.30% | 0.41% | 0.45% | -0.04% | +7.57% | -3.76% | |
SE-SC | -4.20% | 0.40% | -0.43% | -0.03% | +1.88% | -2.42% | |
NC-Tip | +2.23% | 0.40% | 0.39% | +0.01% | +8.61% | +16.47 | |
NW-Tip | +1.95% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.00 | +44.95% | -11.56% | |
NC | +0.42% | 0.39% | 0.39% | -0.01% | +3.56% | -11.41% | |
NE | +5.22% | 0.38% | 0.36% | +0.01% | +12.31% | +9.78% | |
SW | -1.07% | 0.38% | 0.40% | -0.01% | +3.70% | +10.70% | |
C-SW | -2.42% | 0.38% | 0.40% | -0.02% | +7.68% | -4.19% | |
SE | -2.15% | 0.35% | 0.36% | -0.01% | +3.62% | -11.44% | |
SW | -4.81% | 0.34% | 0.37% | -0.02% | +10.61% | -20.03% | |
NW-WC | -6.26% | 0.34% | 0.37% | -0.03% | +7.70% | -10.56% | |
C-NC | -4.24% | 0.33% | 0.36% | -0.02% | +14.35% | -4.64% | |
NW-NC | -2.73% | 0.33% | 0.34% | -0.02% | +3.93% | +9.59% | |
NC-C | -6.74% | 0.33% | 0.37% | -0.03% | +1.44% | +15.71% | |
NC-NW | -5.97% | 0.33% | 0.36% | -0.03% | +8.89% | -8.10% | |
SE | +0.10% | 0.32% | 0.33% | -0.01% | +4.25% | +9.84% | |
NE | +0.68% | 0.31% | 0.31% | 0.00 | +25.78% | +13.30% | |
NC-NW | -7.38% | 0.31% | 0.34% | -0.03% | +2.79% | +6.49% | |
C-WC | -7.67% | 0.31% | 0.35% | -0.03% | +0.46% | +1.78% | |
WC | -4.40% | 0.31% | 0.33% | -0.02% | +2.42% | -1.13% | |
SC | -2.65% | 0.29% | 0.30% | -0.01% | +2.25% | -0.44% | |
NC | +3.30% | 0.28% | 0.27% | 0.00 | +22.42% | +10.51% | |
SC | -2.08% | 0.29% | 0.30% | -0.01% | +6.72% | -5.44% | |
SC | +2.37% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.00 | +0.83% | -4.88% | |
SW | -5.26% | 0.26% | 0.28% | -0.02% | +3.36% | -9.69% | |
NC-NW | -6.98% | 0.26% | 0.29% | -0.03% | +8.42% | -5.93% | |
SW-Tip | -0.38% | 0.25% | 0.26% | -0.01% | +3.62% | -18.17% | |
SC-SE | -2.25% | 0.25% | 0.26% | -0.01% | +5.21% | -0.14% | |
SC-SE | -2.55% | 0.25% | 0.26% | -0.01% | +9.14% | -1.50% | |
SE | -5.84% | 0.23% | 0.25% | -0.02% | +12.18% | -4.58% | |
WC | -6.01% | 0.23% | 0.25% | -0.02% | +16.41% | -8.15% | |
SW-WC | -4.34% | 0.22% | 0.24% | -0.01% | +3.06% | +12.80% | |
SW | -5.14% | 0.20% | 0.21% | -0.01% | +8.59% | -11.97% | |
NW | -4.19% | 0.20% | 0.22% | -0.01% | +31.64% | -10.03% | |
SC | -4.85% | 0.19% | 0.21% | -0.01% | +6.98% | -4.32% | |
SC-SW | -3.20% | 0.17% | 0.18% | -0.01% | +6.14% | -0.34% | |
SW | -5.12% | 0.14% | 0.15% | -0.01% | +3.26% | +17.89% |