FLORIDA 2008 – County by County - Part III
An analysis of the democratic pick-up counties in FLORIDA:
First, here a map of the Democratic retentions plus the Democratic pick-ups 2004 to 2008:
Here the Republican retentions for 2008:
Look at the republican retentions map above and concentrate only on the northern part of the state.
Now, for comparison, here is a map of the GE from 1980, where incumbent Carter lost the GE in a landslide to Reagan, also in Florida. But notice the counties that Carter still carried and then compared to the map above showing the GOP trending counties:
We have correspondence in 22 of 26 „Carter“ counties, evidence of a practical ideological reversal in this part of the state.
In Florida, 25 counties trended more republican than in 2004.
Here a visual depiction of the 25 „counties“ at the bottom of the large table from Part II, sorted (descending) by partisan-shift. Those are the counties that trended republican:
To remind, those 25 counties that trended Republican in 2008 account for 23.70% of the total land area of the state of Florida, but represented only 4.61% of the total PV in 2008.
Here the same map, with the 10 counties that trended 4% or less democratic:
Here we see a pattern develop: most of the counties with lean margin shifts, either to one party or the other, are concentrated in north Florida, most extensively in the panhandle region. And again, we see a clear correspondence to the „Carter“ counties from 1980. Fascinating.
Here is a map of FLORIDA, showing the population density of the state, by region:
Note the population influence: the counties with the lightest trends (shifts), either democratic or republican, all came from very sparsely populated counties.
Here a review of those pick-up counties by descending percentage of the PV'08 and also by descending partisan shift:
|
County |
Region |
G Rate |
% of PV'08 |
% of PV'04 |
Diff. |
Partisan shift |
|
C-WC |
11.07% |
6.12% |
6.09% |
+0.03% |
+13.90% |
|
|
C-WC |
2.15% |
5.53% |
5.98% |
-0.45% |
+8.27% |
|
|
C |
22.77% |
1.20% |
1.08% |
+0.12% |
+25.15% |
|
|
N |
27.90% |
0.59% |
0.51% |
+0.08% |
+4.32% |
|
|
All pick-ups: |
-- |
8.71% |
13.43% |
13.66% |
-0.22% |
+12.03% |
|
County |
Region |
G Rate |
% of PV'08 |
% of PV'04 |
Diff. |
Partisan shift |
|
C |
22.77% |
1.20% |
1.08% |
+0.12% |
+25.15% |
|
|
C-WC |
11.07% |
6.12% |
6.09% |
+0.03% |
+13.90% |
|
|
C-WC |
2.15% |
5.53% |
5.98% |
-0.45% |
+8.27% |
|
|
N |
27.90% |
0.59% |
0.51% |
+0.08% |
+4.32% |
|
|
All pick-ups: |
-- |
8.71% |
13.43% |
13.66% |
-0.22% |
+12.03% |
3 of these 4 pick-ups have a partisan shift larger than the statewide partisan shift, and 2 of them have a partisan shift larger than the national partisan shift. These 4 pick-ups together accounted for 13.43% of the statewide PV.
Here the same table, by winning and losing percents:
|
County |
Region |
Obama % |
McCain % |
Margin |
O-Shift |
M-Shift |
Partisan shift |
|
C |
59.41% |
39.72% |
+19.69% |
+12.42% |
-12.73% |
+25.15% |
|
|
C-WC |
53.38% |
45.16% |
+8.22% |
+3.07% |
-4.40% |
+8.27% |
|
|
C-WC |
53.05% |
45.94% |
+7.12% |
+6.83% |
-7.08% |
+13.90% |
|
|
N |
50.24% |
48.66% |
+1.57% |
-1.96% |
-2.36% |
+4.32% |
|
|
All pick-ups: |
-- |
53.63% |
45.18% |
+8.45% |
+5.83% |
-6.20% |
+12.03% |
The table above gives us very specific information about the future electoral development of FL.
All 4 democratic pick-up counties were above Obama's statewide winning percentage and winning margin. 3 of 4 were above his national winning percentage and 2 were above his national winning margin. All democratic county pick-ups were majority-vote wins. 2 of these 4 counties are geographically attached to democratic hold territory, in densely populated areas. The other two (Hillsborough / Pinellas), on the west coast of Florida, are „swing counties“.
How to predict as 2012 nears? Here is a table of the closest county by county races (margin: under +4%), the so-called „tipping point“ counties (winning margin: less than 4%):
|
County |
Region |
Obama % |
McCain % |
Margin |
O-shift |
M-shift |
Partisan Shift |
|
USA |
-- |
52.88% |
45.61% |
+7.27% |
+4.62 |
-5.12% |
+9.73% |
|
FLORIDA |
-- |
50.91% |
48.10% |
+2.81% |
-3.99% |
+3.82% |
+7.82% |
|
----- |
-- |
------ |
------ |
------ |
----- |
----- |
|
|
PAN |
51.24% |
47.59% |
+3.65 |
-4.05% |
+3.59% |
-7.55% |
|
|
C-WC |
47.51% |
51.07% |
+3.57% |
+3.11% |
-3.00% |
-6.11% |
|
|
WC |
47.55% |
51.11% |
+3.56% |
+1.44% |
-1.76% |
-3.20% |
|
|
PAN |
47.94% |
51.02% |
+3.08% |
-0.83% |
+0.55% |
+1.38% |
|
|
C-EC |
48.12% |
50.90% |
+2.78% |
+6.78% |
-7.20% |
-13.98% |
|
|
N |
48.63% |
50.53% |
+1.90% |
+7.00% |
-7.26% |
-14.26% |
|
|
N |
50.24% |
48.66% |
+1.57% |
+1.96% |
-2.36% |
+4.32% |
|
|
SW-WC |
49.37% |
49.47% |
+0.10% |
+4.16% |
-4.04% |
-8.20% |
Of the 8 „tipping-point“ counties, 6 were barely won by McCain and 2 were barely won by Obama (1 democratic pick-ups, 1 democratic retention). McCain lost slightly more on percent than Obama gained in all counties but two – Jefferson and Madison counties, both of which are Democratic holds that trended lightly Republican. The direction of THESE counties in 2012 will give us a very good early indication of who will win the state: Obama or his GOP opponent. The largest prize of these tipping-point counties is
Here is a map of the tipping-point counties, by color: blue/pink= DEM, orange/gold= GOP (darker = 2%-4% swing / medium= 1%-2% swing / light = 0%-1% swing):
Here the same tipping point counties, interposed with the
DEMOCRATIC retentions and pick-ups. In this case, the colors for Jefferson and Flagler counties have been altered to represent them both
as DEM counties and as tipping point counties:
The graphic result is that the tipping point counties are
practically all within the geographic sphere of influence of major
democratic strongholds or democratic pick-ups . This strengthens the
argument that keeping an eye on these 8 tipping point counties + the
4 Democratic pick-up counties will give us a good idea of who will
win the Sunshine state in 2012: Obama, or his GOP contender.
For instance, if little Gadsden county, which trended away from the democratic party in 2008, shows strong signs for Obama, if Duval and Seminole counties show strong signs for Obama, possibly even signs of flipping, then we can reckon with a solid Obama win. If however, counties like Hillsborough and Pinellas show Obama losing, if strongholds like Miami-Dade, Palm-Beach, Broward and Orange counties do not post the crushing poll numbers for Obama that he would need to win, then the GOP has the best chances of reclaiming this state. And above all else, GOTV will play an inordinate role in FL, for FL has a an early voting system and it was this system that allowed Obama to rack up unbelievably high margins in key counties before election day. Most statisticians on both sides are convinced that the results of the early voting indicated a slim but sure Obama win in Florida even before election day. If I were allowed only three counties to keep under observation in 2012 polling in Florida and base a prediction on these three counties, then I would choose Hillsborough, Seminole and Duval counties.
Conclusion:
In INDIANA, every single county trended more or less democratic, without exception – there was a blue shift that moved the entire state and those overwhelmingly white, rural counties contributed greatly to Obama's narrow win here – yes, the counties that he still lost to McCain. This shows a large level of GOP defection to Obama in 2008. Here, Obama gained 405,028 raw votes over Kerry from 2004, while McCain lost 133,790 raw votes over Bush from 2004, an uneven shift. Indiana's PV growth rate over 2004 was 11.47%. And Obama won by +1.03%.
In OHIO, not every county trended democratic (11 trended GOP), but there were no GOP county pick-ups. Also, in Ohio, the largest cities, all five of them, played the crucial role in moving the state into the democratic column and those overwhelmingly white, rural counties contributed very little to Obama's narrow win, in contrast to Indiana. Surely there were some moderate GOP defections, but there were also a moderate amount of newly registered voters. Here, Obama gained 198,877 raw votes over Kerry's total from 2004, while McCain lost 181,948 raw votes over Bush's total from 2004, a moderate mirror image shift. Ohio's PV growth rate over 2004 was a nominal 1.36%, way under the national PV growth rate of 7.46%. And Obama won by +4.58%.
In VIRGINIA, there was real resistance to Obama, but in counties that are „emptying out“, so to speak. There was a large poli-demographic shift in VA, with the north and the SE gaining greatly in political strength for the democratic party. Here there were obviously far fewer GOP defections, if at all (McCain scored more raw votes in VA than Bush from 2004), but far more newly registered and democratic dedicated voters. Most importantly, a +6.30% winning margin is hardly a battleground margin. It is a better margin than Obama scored in OHIO, FLORIDA, INDIANA and FLORIDA. It is a lean winning margin, but a comfortable one and will require a minimum 12.60% shift back to the GOP in order to regain the state, and I doubt that this shift will come from those 500,000 new voters. The worst case scenario for the GOP is that Obama cements Virginia into the democratic column in his first term, adding the state to core democratic territory and thus making the electoral math for the GOP more difficult.
In NORTH CAROLINA, Obama achieved a democratic trend in 92 of 100 counties and there were no GOP pick-up counties (see: INDIANA; OHIO). However, there were no counties with partisan shifts above 21%. In Virginia, there were 8 such counties. In Indiana, there were 40 such counties. The densely populated areas pulled through for Obama and he held McCain's winning margins in the red counties low enough to squeak through a bare win.
In FLORIDA, Obama's GOTV
effort and hard campaigning were enough to swing Tampa (Hillsborough
county) and Clearwater (Pinellas county) back to the democratic
party. But the trend was very uneven in Florida and the GOP achieved
a higher numeric percentage of GOP trending counties than in Indiana,
Ohio, Virginia or North Carolina. It is indeed fascinating that the
very counties that remained true to Jimmy Carter in his 1980 election
defeat are now rock-solid republican counties or counties trending
republican. There is no statistical indication that race is a factor
in this, for most of those counties did not go for either Bill
Clinton or Al Gore, both also southern democrats. The explanation is
that as these counties are „empyting out“ and losing on electoral
firepower, the population that is remaining is more conservatively
oriented. Without a doubt, Florida will continue to be a bitter
battleground for cycles to come. But the counties to keep an eye on are definitely Sarasota and Duval on the GOP side, plus Hillsborough, Pinellas and Gadsden on the Democratic side.
APPENDIX
DEM total: Alachua, Broward, Flagler, Gadsden, Hillsborough, Jefferson, Leon, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pinellas, St. Lucie, Volusia
GOP trending (25: 23 GOP holds, 2 DEM holds): Baker, Bradford, Calhoun, Citrus, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Okechobee, Putnam, Sumter, Suwanee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Washington
GOP, % gain: Baker, Calhoun, Citrus, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Okechobee, Sumter, Suwanee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Washington (23)
DEM % loss: Baker, Bradford Calhoun, Citrus, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Okechobee, Putnam, Sumter, Suwanee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Washington (25)
Ind % loss: Broward, Collier, Lee, Martin, Miami-Dade, Pasco, Sumter (7)
GOP numeric loss: Broward, Duval, Escambier, Glades, Hillsborough, Manatee, Monroe, Orange, Osceola, Pinellas, Sarasota (11)
DEM numeric loss: Calhoun, Dixie, Franklin, Gilchrist, Glades, Golf, Holmes, Jefferson, Lafayette, Liberty, Okechobee, Taylor, Washington (12)
IND numeric loss: Broward, Collier, Lake, Martin, Nassau, Sarasota (6)