FLORIDA 2008 – County by County - Part II
County-wide analysis:
Here is a table of all 67 counties in FLORIDA, in descending order of partisan shift. This table is based on the raw numbers from the excel document. Also included is the county's % of the statewide PV from 2008 and 2004, plus the difference between the two („% shift“, known as „partisan shift“ or „swing“).
There are some new components in this table that were first introduced in the Virginia analysis:
There is a column for region in the state, which I have divided into five regions (PANHANDLE, N / (NC), C, (SC) / SW, SE).
There is also a column for the individual growth rate for each county, regardless of it's take in the statewide PV. So, it is possible for a very small county to have a large growth rate and still reflect a smaller percentage of the statewide popular vote.
Legend:
A negative partisan shift in red (GOP) means the same thing as a positive partisan shift in blue (DEM) and visa-versa. Red shading=GOP. Blue shading = DEM pick-up.
An underlined value indicates a number that appears to be wrong by 1/100th of a percentage point, but is not -due to rounding to the next 1/100th of a percent.
|
County |
Region |
G Rate |
% of PV'08 |
% of PV'04 |
Diff. |
Partisan shift |
|
C |
22.77% |
1.20% |
1.08% |
+0.12% |
+25.15% |
|
|
C |
19.24% |
5.50% |
5.10% |
+0.40% |
+18.41% |
|
|
N |
9.35% |
4.95% |
5.01% |
-0.05% |
-14.26% |
|
|
C-EC |
10.87% |
2.45% |
2.45% |
+0.01% |
-13.98% |
|
|
C-WC |
11.07% |
6.12% |
6.09% |
+0.03% |
+13.90% |
|
|
PAN |
8.09% |
1.84% |
1.88% |
-0.04% |
-12.31% |
|
|
C |
16.54% |
2.92% |
2.77% |
+0.15% |
-11.70% |
|
|
PAN-W |
6.71% |
1.14% |
1.18% |
-0.04% |
-11.26% |
|
|
SW |
11.68% |
0.13% |
0.13% |
0.00 |
-11.22% |
|
|
SW |
12.18% |
3.21% |
3.16% |
+0.05% |
-10.57% |
|
|
SW-C |
2.66% |
0.09% |
0.10% |
-0.01% |
-10.51% |
|
|
N |
16.23% |
1.13% |
1.07% |
+0.06% |
-10.13% |
|
|
SE-Tip |
11.61% |
10.28% |
10.18% |
+0.10 |
+9.83% |
|
|
SW |
10.34% |
1.69% |
1.69% |
0.00 |
-8.39% |
|
|
C-WC |
2.15% |
5.53% |
5.98% |
-0.45% |
+8.27% |
|
|
N |
13.15% |
1.50% |
1.46% |
+0.03% |
+8.23% |
|
|
SW-WC |
6.32% |
2.47% |
2.57% |
-0.10% |
-8.20% |
|
|
SE-EC |
20.89% |
1.44% |
1.31% |
+0.12% |
+7.84% |
|
|
C |
18.54% |
1.75% |
1.63% |
+0.12% |
-7.60% |
|
|
C-SC |
8.26% |
0.53% |
0.55% |
-0.01% |
-7.38% |
|
|
SW |
6.16% |
1.81% |
1.89% |
-0.07% |
-6.96% |
|
|
N-NE |
22.94% |
1.26% |
1.13% |
+0.13% |
-6.49% |
|
|
EC |
15.29% |
0.84% |
0.81% |
+0.03% |
-6.36% |
|
|
C-WC |
12.92% |
2.56% |
2.51% |
+0.05% |
-6.11% |
|
|
C |
8.84% |
3.44% |
3.49% |
-0.05% |
-5.73% |
|
|
N-NC |
16.37% |
1.93% |
1.84% |
+0.10% |
-5.63% |
|
|
SW |
7.16% |
1.02% |
1.05% |
-0.03% |
-5.53% |
|
|
PAN-W |
11.81% |
0.91% |
0.90% |
+0.01% |
-5.50% |
|
|
SE |
3.99% |
8.74% |
9.29% |
-0.55% |
+5.09% |
|
|
SW |
6.88% |
0.12% |
0.12% |
0.00 |
-4.65% |
|
|
SW-Tip |
2.19% |
0.48% |
0.52% |
-0.04% |
+4.41% |
|
|
N |
27.90% |
0.59% |
0.51% |
+0.08% |
+4.32% |
|
|
EC-NE |
6.95% |
2.91% |
3.01% |
-0.10% |
+4.09% |
|
|
WC |
9.22% |
1.05% |
1.06% |
-0.01% |
-3.20% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
17.25% |
0.46% |
0.43% |
+0.03% |
-2.73% |
|
|
PAN |
8.45% |
0.97% |
0.99% |
-0.02% |
-2.51% |
|
|
SE |
8.32% |
0.93% |
0.95% |
-0.02% |
-1.89% |
|
|
PAN |
13.19% |
0.32% |
0.32% |
+0.01% |
-1.66% |
|
|
SE |
8.60% |
7.03% |
7.16% |
-0.12% |
+1.57% |
|
|
N |
12.90% |
0.34% |
0.33% |
+0.01% |
-1.25% |
|
|
SW |
19.82% |
0.04% |
0.06% |
-0.02% |
-0.72% |
|
|
PAN |
9.21% |
1.77% |
1.79% |
-0.02% |
+0.55% |
|
|
-- |
--- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
N |
7.45% |
0.40% |
0.41% |
-0.01% |
+0.19% |
|
|
N |
7.81% |
0.14% |
0.14% |
0.00 |
+0.48% |
|
|
N |
12.83% |
0.22% |
0.22% |
0.00 |
+0.80% |
|
|
PAN |
7.41% |
0.27% |
0.28% |
-0.01% |
-1.00% |
|
|
N |
11.77% |
0.21% |
0.21% |
0.00 |
+1.17% |
|
|
C-NC |
53.83% |
0.58% |
0.42% |
+0.16 |
+1.17% |
|
|
C |
10.14% |
0.91% |
0.91% |
0.00 |
+1.29% |
|
|
PAN |
7.26% |
0.11% |
0.11% |
0.00 |
+1.38% |
|
|
N |
11.37% |
0.13% |
0.13% |
0.00 |
+1.40% |
|
|
N |
13.22% |
0.06% |
0.06% |
0.00 |
+3.99% |
|
|
SE-EC |
5.32% |
0.15% |
0.16% |
-0.01% |
+4.13% |
|
|
N |
10.00% |
0.07% |
0.07% |
0.00 |
+4.11% |
|
|
PAN |
7.73% |
0.13% |
0.14% |
0.00 |
+4.60% |
|
|
PAN |
9.12% |
0.26% |
0.26% |
0.00 |
+4.92% |
|
|
N |
11.46% |
0.09% |
0.09% |
0.00 |
+5.20% |
|
|
PAN |
-0.81% |
0.09% |
0.10% |
-0.01% |
+6.27% |
|
|
N |
13.21% |
0.09% |
0.08% |
0.00 |
+6.42% |
|
|
PAN |
6.69% |
0.09% |
0.10% |
0.00 |
-7.55% |
|
|
PAN |
22.21% |
0.17% |
0.15% |
+0.02% |
+8.81% |
|
|
PAN |
3.78% |
0.10% |
0.11% |
-0.01% |
+9.44% |
|
|
PAN |
1.99% |
0.07% |
0.08% |
-0.01% |
+9.78% |
|
|
N-PAN |
9.39% |
0.11% |
0.11% |
0.00 |
+10.75% |
|
|
N-PAN |
1.56% |
0.04% |
0.04% |
0.00 |
+11.75% |
|
|
PAN |
5.05% |
0.07% |
0.08% |
0.00 |
+12.35% |
|
|
PAN |
8.77% |
0.04% |
0.04% |
0.00 |
+15.58% |
How to interpret this table:
Example 1: Hillsborough county (pop. approximately 1,346,000, county seat: Tampa) is an impressive pick-up statistic due to the sheer size of the county. Tampa is one of the few large „swing cities“ in the nation. In the 15 election cycles Since Eisenhower's (R) landslide in 1952, a democrat has won Hillsborough county only 5 times: every time a Democrat has won the state in a winning DEM national cycle (1964, 1976, 1996, 2008) + Kennedy in 1960. Hillsborough county's growth rate over 2004 was 11.07%, slightly larger than the state growth rate of 10.52%, and it's take of the statewide PV increased +0.03%, from 6.09% to 6.12%. But the partisan shift in this county was a sizeable +13.90% (the fifth largest shift in the state); Obama added 58,831 votes over 2004, while McCain lost 9,221 votes from Bush's 2004 total. Though Hillsborough county is the third largest in Florida, it's take of the 2008 was the 4th highest. In Palm Beach county, the 4th largest county in the state, almost 80,000 more votes were cast.
I've done a special work-up on Hillsborough county, comparing 2008 to 1996, 1976 and 1964. Here are the statistics:
| County | DEM | GOP | IND | Total | DEM % | GOP % | IND % | Margin | Margin % | % of State | Growth rate |
| Hillsborough 2008 | 272963 | 236355 | 5177 | 514495 | 53,05% | 45,94% | 1,01% | 36608 | 7,12% | 6,12% | 11,07% |
| 2004 | 214132 | 245576 | 3514 | 463222 | 46,23% | 53,01% | 0,76% | 31444 | 6,79% | 6,09% | |
| Diff: | 58831 | -9221 | 1663 | 51273 | 6,83% | -7,08% | 0,25% | 68052 | 13,90% | 0,03% | |
| Hillsborough 1996 | 144266 | 136656 | 27349 | 308271 | 46,80% | 44,33% | 8,87% | 7610 | 2,47% | 5,81% | -0,72% |
| 1992 | 115282 | 130643 | 64577 | 310502 | 37,13% | 42,07% | 20,80% | 15361 | 4,95% | 5,84% | |
| Diff: | 28984 | 6013 | -37228 | -2231 | 9,67% | 2,26% | -11,93% | 22971 | 7,42% | -0,03% | |
| Hillsborough 1976 | 94589 | 78504 | 2052 | 175145 | 54,01% | 44,82% | 1,17% | 16085 | 9,18% | 5,56% | 14,84% |
| 1972 | 45305 | 106956 | 249 | 152510 | 29,71% | 70,13% | 0,16% | 61651 | 40,42% | 5,90% | |
| Diff: | 49284 | -28452 | 1803 | 22635 | 24,30% | -25,31% | 1,01% | 77736 | 49,61% | -0,34% | |
| Hillsborough 1964 | 71289 | 50616 | 0 | 121905 | 58,48% | 41,52% | 0,00% | 20673 | 16,96% | 6,57% | 9,73% |
| 1960 | 62204 | 48887 | 0 | 111091 | 55,99% | 44,01% | 0,00% | 13317 | 11,99% | 7,19% | |
| Diff: | 9085 | 1729 | 0 | 10814 | 2,49% | -2,49% | 0,00% | 7356 | 4,97% | -0,62% |
We see that Tampa is regaining ground within the state as a political power center. It is now almost percentually as big as it was in 1964 and will probably overtake Palm Beach for 4th place in the PV in 2012. Obama's partisan shift in Hillsborough county was larger than both Clinton's and Johnson's, but smaller than Carter's. This is understandable, as Nixon swept the state in 1972 with 70.13% and won every single county for the first time since FDR. In order to win the county, there must have been a massive shift for Carter in 1976. Later, in Part III, in the section over counties to watch in 2012, we will come back to this county.
Example 2 – Duval county (pop. Approximately 778,900, county seat: Jacksonville), which went for Bush by +16.16% in 2004, but for McCain by only +1.90% in 2008, was the third closest county-wide race for President in Florida in 2008 and the closest race in Duval county for President since 1964. Duval county has only gone for a democrat twice since 1952: in 1960 (Kennedy) and 1976 (Carter). Johnson, who swept the nation in 1964 with the largest national PV% of all time, was unable to win this county; Goldwater edged Johnson out 50.55%-49.45%, a +1.10% margin. Duval county went for Wallace in 1968; Nixon won the county in a blowout in 1972, with 72.23%. Clinton lost this county both times. This is a traditionally very, very republican county and until 2008, by landslide margins. The county has therefore become a „tipping-point county“ for 2012 and is an excellent example for many reasons.
First, it had the third highest partisan shift of the election in Florida, -14.26%, slightly less than double the state partisan shift of +7.82%.
Second, Obama picked-up 44,008 votes in Duval county over 2004, McCain lost 9,653 votes over 2004. He picked up more votes here than in the democratic pick-up Pinellas county. This means that Jacksonville (Duval County) is trending strongly democratic and like Tampa, will be one of the urban/suburban/rural areas to watch in 2012.
Third, the 25 counties in Florida that trended Republican in 2008,though they account for 23.70% of the total land area of the state of Florida accounted for 4.61% of the statewide popular vote. Duval county accounted for 4.95% of the statewide popular vote, so one can say that those GOP trending counties pretty much add up to the firepower of Jacksonville (Duval county), which is now trending strongly democratic. More on this in Part III.
Incidentally, Duval county is in the extreme NE part of the state, is a coastal county and very close to the state of Georgia. Bush won Georgia by +16.60% in 2004, almost identical to this county-wide margin from the same year, proof once again that state borders are a very artificial creation.
--------------------------------
Example 3: Sumter county (pop. Approximately 53,400) was one of the 25 counties in Florida that trended more republican than in 2004; it had the highest growth rate in the entire state: 53.83%. And indeed, Sumter county increased it's take of the statewide PV by a solid +0.16%, going from 0.42% in 2004 to 0.58% in 2008. In Sumter county, John McCain picked up more raw votes over 2004 than in any other Florida county: he bested Bush's countwide total by 11,066 votes. However, the margin shift was only +1.17% for the Republican party as Obama also picked up 6,071 votes over Kerry's 2004 total. Therefore, in spite of massive PV growth, McCain only barely extended what was already a republican landslide county. More on those 25 counties that bucked the national trend and shifted GOP after the tables.
Here a numeric breakdown, for the democratic party with FLORIDA, OHIO and INDIANA side by side:
|
Partisan-shift range |
FLORIDA |
NORTH CAROLINA |
VIRGINIA |
OHIO |
INDIANA |
|
---------------------- |
No (%) of |
No (%) of 100 |
No (%) of 134 |
No (%) of 88 |
No (%) 92 |
|
+30% and higher |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
5 (0.54%) |
|
+25% to 25.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
3 (2.24%) |
0 (0.00%) |
12 (13.01%) |
|
+20% to +24.99% |
1 (1.49%) |
2 (2.00%) |
8 (5.97%) |
1 (1.14%) |
41 (44.57%) |
|
+15% to +19.99% |
1 (1.49%) |
9 (9.00%) |
26 (19.40%) |
7 (7.95%) |
16 (17.39%) |
|
+10% to +14.99% |
10 (14.93%) |
29 (29.00%) |
37 (27.62%) |
15 (17.06%) |
10 (10.87%) |
|
+5% to +9.99% |
17 (25.37%) |
29 (29.00%) |
35 (26.12%) |
30 (34.09%) |
6 (6.52%) |
|
+1% to +4.99% |
11 (16.42%) |
22 (22.00%) |
14 (10.45%) |
19 (21.59%) |
2 (2.17%) |
|
+0% to +0.99% |
2 (2.99%) |
2 (2.00%) |
2 (1.49%) |
5 (5.68%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-0% to -0.99% |
3 (4.48%) |
2 (2.00%) |
2 (1.49%) |
2 (2.27%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-1% to -4.99% |
11 (16.42%) |
5 (5.00%) |
2 (1.49%) |
9 (10.22%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-5% to -9.99% |
7 (10.45%) |
1 (1.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-10% to -14.99% |
4 (5.97%) |
0 (0.00%) |
4 (2.99%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
|
-15% to -19.99% |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
1 (0.75%) |
0 (0.00%) |
0 (0.00%) |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here the 67 county table again, re-sorted in descending order of county size, based on % of statewide PV in 2008 (blue shading= DEM pick-up).
To get a picture of how unbalanced this all is between urban and rural counties: the combined strength of the 38 smallest counties (making 10.42%) = the electoral strength of Miami-Dade County alone (10.28%) - or, the combined strength of the 46 smallest counties (20.16%) = the electoral strength of the 2 largest counties combined (Miami-Dade and Broward counties: 19.79%)!! The top 8 counties in FLORIDA accounted for 51.59% of the statewide popular vote, which means that the other 59 counties roughly equalled the firepower of the top 8 counties. And the top 6 of those top 8 counties were democratic counties (37.70%).
|
County |
Region |
G Rate |
% of PV'08 |
% of PV'04 |
Diff. |
Partisan shift |
|
SE-Tip |
11.61% |
10.28% |
10.18% |
+0.10 |
+9.83% |
|
|
SE |
3.99% |
8.74% |
9.29% |
-0.55% |
+5.09% |
|
|
SE |
8.60% |
7.03% |
7.16% |
-0.12% |
+1.57% |
|
|
C-WC |
11.07% |
6.12% |
6.09% |
+0.03% |
+13.90% |
|
|
C-WC |
2.15% |
5.53% |
5.98% |
-0.45% |
+8.27% |
|
|
C |
19.24% |
5.50% |
5.10% |
+0.40% |
+18.41% |
|
|
N |
9.35% |
4.95% |
5.01% |
-0.05% |
-14.26% |
|
|
C |
8.84% |
3.44% |
3.49% |
-0.05% |
-5.73% |
|
|
8 (51.59%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SW |
12.18% |
3.21% |
3.16% |
+0.05% |
-10.57% |
|
|
C |
16.54% |
2.92% |
2.77% |
+0.15% |
-11.70% |
|
|
EC-NE |
6.95% |
2.91% |
3.01% |
-0.10% |
+4.09% |
|
|
C-WC |
12.92% |
2.56% |
2.51% |
+0.05% |
-6.11% |
|
|
SW-WC |
6.32% |
2.47% |
2.57% |
-0.10% |
-8.20% |
|
|
C-EC |
10.87% |
2.45% |
2.45% |
+0.01% |
-13.98% |
|
|
N-NC |
16.37% |
1.93% |
1.84% |
+0.10% |
-5.63% |
|
|
PAN |
8.09% |
1.84% |
1.88% |
-0.04% |
-12.31% |
|
|
SW |
6.16% |
1.81% |
1.89% |
-0.07% |
-6.96% |
|
|
PAN |
9.21% |
1.77% |
1.79% |
-0.02% |
+0.55% |
|
|
C |
18.54% |
1.75% |
1.63% |
+0.12% |
-7.60% |
|
|
SW |
10.34% |
1.69% |
1.69% |
0.00 |
-8.39% |
|
|
N |
13.15% |
1.50% |
1.46% |
+0.03% |
+8.23% |
|
|
SE-EC |
20.89% |
1.44% |
1.31% |
+0.12% |
+7.84% |
|
|
N-NE |
22.94% |
1.26% |
1.13% |
+0.13% |
-6.49% |
|
|
C |
22.77% |
1.20% |
1.08% |
+0.12% |
+25.15% |
|
|
PAN-W |
6.71% |
1.14% |
1.18% |
-0.04% |
-11.26% |
|
|
N |
16.23% |
1.13% |
1.07% |
+0.06% |
-10.13% |
|
|
WC |
9.22% |
1.05% |
1.06% |
-0.01% |
-3.20% |
|
|
SW |
7.16% |
1.02% |
1.05% |
-0.03% |
-5.53% |
|
|
PAN |
8.45% |
0.97% |
0.99% |
-0.02% |
-2.51% |
|
|
SE |
8.32% |
0.93% |
0.95% |
-0.02% |
-1.89% |
|
|
PAN-W |
11.81% |
0.91% |
0.90% |
+0.01% |
-5.50% |
|
|
C |
10.14% |
0.91% |
0.91% |
0.00 |
+1.29% |
|
|
EC |
15.29% |
0.84% |
0.81% |
+0.03% |
-6.36% |
|
|
N |
27.90% |
0.59% |
0.51% |
+0.08% |
+4.32% |
|
|
C-NC |
53.83% |
0.58% |
0.42% |
+0.16 |
+1.17% |
|
|
C-SC |
8.26% |
0.53% |
0.55% |
-0.01% |
-7.38% |
|
|
SW-Tip |
2.19% |
0.48% |
0.52% |
-0.04% |
+4.41% |
|
|
NE-Tip |
17.25% |
0.46% |
0.43% |
+0.03% |
-2.73% |
|
|
N |
7.45% |
0.40% |
0.41% |
-0.01% |
+0.19% |
|
|
N |
12.90% |
0.34% |
0.33% |
+0.01% |
-1.25% |
|
|
PAN |
13.19% |
0.32% |
0.32% |
+0.01% |
-1.66% |
|
|
PAN |
7.41% |
0.27% |
0.28% |
-0.01% |
-1.00% |
|
|
PAN |
9.12% |
0.26% |
0.26% |
0.00 |
+4.92% |
|
|
N |
12.83% |
0.22% |
0.22% |
0.00 |
+0.80% |
|
|
N |
11.77% |
0.21% |
0.21% |
0.00 |
+1.17% |
|
|
PAN |
22.21% |
0.17% |
0.15% |
+0.02% |
+8.81% |
|
|
SE-EC |
5.32% |
0.15% |
0.16% |
-0.01% |
+4.13% |
|
|
N |
7.81% |
0.14% |
0.14% |
0.00 |
+0.48% |
|
|
N |
11.37% |
0.13% |
0.13% |
0.00 |
+1.40% |
|
|
PAN |
7.73% |
0.13% |
0.14% |
0.00 |
+4.60% |
|
|
SW |
11.68% |
0.13% |
0.13% |
0.00 |
-11.22% |
|
|
SW |
6.88% |
0.12% |
0.12% |
0.00 |
-4.65% |
|
|
PAN |
7.26% |
0.11% |
0.11% |
0.00 |
+1.38% |
|
|
N-PAN |
9.39% |
0.11% |
0.11% |
0.00 |
+10.75% |
|
|
PAN |
3.78% |
0.10% |
0.11% |
-0.01% |
+9.44% |
|
|
N |
11.46% |
0.09% |
0.09% |
0.00 |
+5.20% |
|
|
N |
13.21% |
0.09% |
0.08% |
0.00 |
+6.42% |
|
|
PAN |
-0.81% |
0.09% |
0.10% |
-0.01% |
+6.27% |
|
|
PAN |
6.69% |
0.09% |
0.10% |
0.00 |
-7.55% |
|
|
SW-C |
2.66% |
0.09% |
0.10% |
-0.01% |
-10.51% |
|
|
PAN |
1.99% |
0.07% |
0.08% |
-0.01% |
+9.78% |
|
|
N |
10.00% |
0.07% |
0.07% |
0.00 |
+4.11% |
|
|
PAN |
5.05% |
0.07% |
0.08% |
0.00 |
+12.35% |
|
|
N |
13.22% |
0.06% |
0.06% |
0.00 |
+3.99% |
|
|
N-PAN |
1.56% |
0.04% |
0.04% |
0.00 |
+11.75% |
|
|
PAN |
8.77% |
0.04% |
0.04% |
0.00 |
+15.58% |
|
|
SW |
19.82% |
0.04% |
0.06% |
-0.02% |
-0.72% |