VIRGINIA 2008 – County by County - Part III
An analysis of the democratic pick-up counties in VIRGINIA:
First, here a map of the counties that were democratic holds (blue) and democratic pick-ups (very dark blue)
Only in a three of nine cases were pick-up counties and independent cities neigboring counties to democratic strongholds.
Here a review of those pick-ups by partisan shift:
|
County |
Type |
Region |
G Rate |
% of PV'08 |
% of PV'04 |
Diff. |
Partisan shift |
|
I |
N-NW |
33.05% |
0.39% |
0.34% |
+0.05% |
+29.37% |
|
|
I |
NE |
24.25% |
0.11% |
0.10% |
+0.01% |
+29.30% |
|
|
I |
NE |
5.61% |
0.37% |
0.40% |
-0.04% |
+24.46% |
|
|
I |
N-NWC |
14.39% |
0.30% |
0.30% |
-0.01% |
+23.45% |
|
|
C |
N-NE |
23.01% |
4.36% |
4.13% |
+0.23% |
+22.33% |
|
|
I |
SE-EC |
20.01% |
0.26% |
0.25% |
+0.01% |
+20.47% |
|
|
C |
EC |
16.15% |
4.16% |
4.17% |
-0.01% |
+20.43% |
|
|
C |
N-Tip |
28.62% |
3.75% |
3.39% |
+0.36% |
+20.34% |
|
|
I |
N-Tip |
8.38% |
0.27% |
0.29% |
-0.02% |
+19.45% |
|
|
I |
SE |
23.98% |
1.07% |
1.01% |
+0.07% |
+17.99% |
|
|
C |
EC |
23.48% |
0.14% |
0.14% |
+0.01% |
+17.18% |
|
|
I |
SE |
17.46% |
2.89% |
2.86% |
+0.03% |
+16.06% |
|
|
I |
C-SWC |
12.05% |
0.15% |
0.15% |
-0.01% |
+16.04% |
|
|
VIRGINIA |
-- |
-- |
|
100.00% |
100.00% |
--- |
+14.50% |
|
C |
SW-SC |
29.00% |
1.09% |
0.99% |
+0.11% |
+14.26 |
|
|
C |
NE |
29.79% |
0.35% |
0.31% |
+0.04% |
+13.18% |
|
|
C |
EC |
12.75% |
0.10% |
0.10% |
0.00 |
+11.21% |
|
|
C |
EC-NE |
22.33% |
0.22% |
0.21% |
+0.01% |
+11.16% |
|
|
USA |
-- |
-- |
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
+9.73% |
|
C |
C |
16.04% |
0.19% |
0.19% |
0.00 |
+7.44% |
13 of these 18 pick-ups have partisan shifts larger than the statewide partisan shift, and 17 of these 18 pick-ups have partisan shifts larger than the national partisan shift.
The top 5 partisan shifts were all in northern Virginia. 4 of the next 7 partisan shift are from the southeast-east central Virginia. So, here we also see definite regional trends in terms of the general STRENGTH of the partisan shifts.
Here the same table, by winning and losing percents:
|
County |
Type |
Region |
Obama % |
McCain % |
Margin |
O-shift |
M-shift |
|
I |
NE |
59.49% |
39.47% |
+20.02% |
+15.03% |
-14.76% |
|
|
I |
N-NW |
57.54% |
41.21% |
+16.33% |
+14.69% |
-14.68% |
|
|
C |
N-NE |
57.52% |
41.63% |
+15.89% |
+11.12% |
-11.21% |
|
|
I |
SE |
56.24% |
43.01% |
+13.23% |
+8.92% |
-9.07% |
|
|
C |
EC |
55.70% |
43.48% |
+12.22% |
+10.09% |
-10.34% |
|
|
C |
NE |
55.45% |
43.48% |
+11.97% |
+6.44% |
-6.74% |
|
|
I |
SE-EC |
55.49% |
43.56% |
+11.93% |
+10.47% |
-10.00% |
|
|
I |
NE |
55.17% |
43.85% |
+11.32% |
+12.06% |
-12.40% |
|
|
C |
EC |
54.70% |
44.35% |
+10.35% |
+8.50% |
-8.69% |
|
|
C |
EC-NE |
54.64% |
44.40% |
+10.24% |
+5.43% |
-5.74% |
|
|
I |
C-SWC |
53.97% |
44.54% |
+9.43% |
+7.65% |
-8.38% |
|
|
C |
N-Tip |
53.67% |
45.42% |
+8.25% |
+10.07% |
-10.27% |
|
|
USA |
-- |
-- |
52.88% |
45.61% |
+7.27% |
+4.62 |
-5.12% |
|
VIRGINIA |
-- |
-- |
52.63% |
46.33% |
+6.30% |
+7.15% |
-7.35% |
|
I |
N-Tip |
52.02% |
46.66% |
+5.36% |
+9.36% |
-9.88% |
|
|
C |
SW-SC |
51.73% |
46.81% |
+4.93% |
+6.90% |
-7.36% |
|
|
C |
EC |
51.77% |
47.57% |
+4.18% |
+8.05% |
-8.58% |
|
|
I |
N-NWC |
50.56% |
48.36% |
+2.17% |
+11.55% |
-11.90% |
|
|
I |
SE |
50.22% |
48.94% |
+1.27% |
+7.89% |
-8.17% |
|
|
C |
C |
49.89% |
49.01% |
+0.87 |
+3.61% |
-3.83% |
The table above gives us very specific
information about the future electoral development of VA. 12
of 18 democratic pickups were above Obama's winning percentage and
his winning margin, both nationally and statewide. 6 pick-ups were
under his winning percent and winning margin. 3 of those were very
close races (margin under +3), but 17 of 18 pick-ups were majority
wins. Only Buckingham County was
a minority win. The probability of a sitting president, with the
power of the incumbency behind him, losing pick-ups from 2008 in places like
Manassas Park, Harrisonburg, Prince William or
Henrico (independent cities and counties he won with double digit margins) is very slim. The
nature of the wins in democratic holds and democratic pick-ups shows
a demonstrable population and voting population shift within
VIRGINIA, which is more than likely to continue in the same direction
in 2012. The strengthening of northern Virginia and Southeast-East
Central Virginia is to Obama's advantage. And the fact that the
democratic vote increase 2008 over 2004 was 64 times the size
of the GOP vote increase 2008 over 2004 speaks for itself. Most likely, the GOP will have to register up to 600,000 new republicans in 2012 in order to reclaim this state.
How to predict this as 2012 nears? Here is a table of the closest county by county races (margin under +4), the so-called „tipping point“ counties (winning margin: less than 4%):
|
County |
Type |
Region |
Obama % |
McCain % |
Margin |
O-shift |
M-shift |
|
USA |
-- |
-- |
52.88% |
45.61% |
+7.27% |
+4.62 |
-5.12% |
|
VIRGINIA |
-- |
-- |
52.63% |
46.33% |
+6.30% |
+7.15% |
-7.35% |
|
----- |
-- |
-- |
------ |
------ |
------ |
----- |
----- |
|
I |
C |
47.37% |
51.36% |
+3.99% |
+2.85% |
+3.31% |
|
|
C |
SC-SE |
47.84% |
51.33% |
+3.49% |
+2.81% |
-3.16% |
|
|
C |
N |
47.73% |
51.19% |
+3.45% |
+6.02% |
-6.42% |
|
|
C |
SC |
48.23% |
51.04% |
+2.81% |
+5.79% |
-6.02% |
|
|
C |
N |
47.79% |
50.56% |
+2.77% |
+2.43% |
-3.07% |
|
|
C |
WC |
48.69% |
50.14% |
+2.20% |
+3.70% |
+4.65% |
|
|
I |
N-NWC |
50.56% |
48.36% |
+2.17% |
+11.55% |
-11.90% |
|
|
C |
SE |
48.45% |
50.62% |
+2.17% |
+6.30% |
-6.52% |
|
|
C |
SE |
48.55% |
50.55% |
+2.00% |
+2.75% |
-3.08% |
|
|
C |
EC |
48.57% |
50.41% |
+1.85% |
+8.27% |
-8.53% |
|
|
C |
EC |
48.69% |
50.14% |
+1.45% |
+7.38% |
+7.51% |
|
|
C |
SC-SE |
48.84% |
50.07% |
+1.23% |
+5.14% |
-4.70% |
|
|
I |
SE |
50.22% |
48.94% |
+1.27% |
+7.89% |
-8.17% |
|
|
C |
C |
49.89% |
49.01% |
+0.87% |
+3.61% |
-3.83% |
|
|
I |
SE |
49.14% |
49.85% |
+0.71% |
+8.91% |
-9.21% |
|
|
C |
SW |
48.54% |
49.22% |
+0.68% |
-2.24% |
+0.73% |
|
|
I |
SW |
49.14% |
49.21% |
+0.07% |
+0.94% |
-1.86% |
Of the 17 „tipping-point“ counties, 14 were barely won by
McCain (including one GOP pick-up) and 3 were barely won by Obama
(all 3 were democratic pick-ups). When you analyze the direction of
the percentages over 2004, in all counties exept Nottoway county,
McCain lost slightly more on percent than Obama gained.
The direction of THESE counties in 2012 will give us a very good idea early on of who will win the state: Obama or his GOP opponent. The largest prize of these tipping-point counties is Virginia Beach. Should Obama run a successful re-election campaign, then it is statistically likely that he will add an average of 3% to his national winning percent and around 6% to his winning margin: most of this would be reflected in the respective statewide percents and margin. This would mean that most of those 14 current tipping-point counties that were won by McCain in 2008 would become democratic pick-ups in 2012.
Here is a map of the tipping-point counties, by color:
You can see that the majority of the tipping point counties are in the southeast-south central region of the state. Here is where both the Obama campaign and the GOP will pour a great deal of money and energy, starting in 2010.
Conclusion:
Obama's win in VIRGINIA differs greatly from his wins in both OHIO and INDIANA.
In INDIANA, every single county trended more or less democratic, without exception – there was a blue shift that moved the entire state and those overwhelmingly white, rural counties contributed greatly to Obama's narrow win here – yes, the counties that he still lost to McCain. This shows a large level of GOP defection to Obama in 2008. Here, Obama gained 405,028 raw votes over Kerry from 2004, while McCain lost 133,790 raw votes over Bush from 2004, an uneven shift. Indiana's PV growth rate over 2004 was 11.47%. And Obama won by +1.03%.
In OHIO, not every county trended democratic (11 counties trended GOP, 77 trended democratic), but there were no GOP county pick-ups. Also, in Ohio, the largest cities, all five of them, played the crucial role in moving the state into the democratic column and those overwhelmingly white, rural counties contributed very little to Obama's narrow win, in contrast to INDIANA. Surely there were some moderate GOP defections, but there was also a moderate amount of newly registered voters. Here, Obama gained 198,877 raw votes over Kerry's total from 2004, while McCain lost 181,948 raw votes over Bush's total from 2004, a moderate mirror image shift. Ohio's PV growth rate over 2004 was a nominal 1.36%, way under the national PV growth rate of 7.46%. And Obama won by +4.58%.
However, in VIRGINIA, there was real resistance to Obama, but in counties that are „emptying out“, so to speak. We see a large poli-demographic shift in VA, with the north and the SE gaining greatly in political strength for the democratic party. Here there were obviously far fewer GOP defections, if at all (McCain scored more raw votes in VA than Bush from 2004), but far more newly registered and democratic dedicated voters. This poses a far larger problem for the GOP than either Indiana or Ohio, for Obama's 1.03% margin in Indiana can be overcome and Ohio is expected to be a battleground state is virtually every cycle, but the addition of more then 500,000 voters to the democratic rolls in just one cycle is much harder for the opposition to overcome. The best case scenario for the GOP is that Virginia becomes a bitter battleground state. However, +6.30% is hardly a battleground margin. It is a better margin that Obama scored in OHIO, FLORIDA, INDIANA and NORTH CAROLINA. It is a lean winning margin, but a comfortable one and will require a minimum 12.60% shift back in order for the GOP to regain the state, and I doubt that this shift will come from those 500,000 new voters. The worst case scenario for the GOP is that Obama cements Virginia into the democratic column in his first term, adding the state to core democratic territory and thus making the electoral math for the GOP more difficult.
APPENDIX:
Obama lost percentually over 2004 in 6 counties and 0 independent cities: Buchanan (-7.15%, GOP pick-up), Craig (-0.92%), Dickenson (-2.24%, GOP pick-up), Russell (-2.32%), Scott (-5.76%), Tazewell (-8.30%), Wise (-5.21%).
Obama lost in raw votes over Kerry from 2004 in 8 counties and 0 independent cities: Buchanan (-1212, GOP pick-up), Craig (-26), Dickenson (-483, GOP pick-up), Lee (-786), Russell (-235), Scott (-599), Tazewell (-1588), Wise (-807),
Obama lost in margin in 0 counties and 0 independent cities that he won. He logically lost margin in the two GOP pick-ups over 2004 plus six GOP retentions: Bland (+0.12%), Buchanan (+13.29, GOP pick-up), Craig (+0.50%), Dickenson (+2.98%, GOP pick-up), Lee (+11.26%), Russell (+4.71), Tazewell (+16.52%).
----------------------------
McCain gained percentually in 8 counties and in 0 independent cities: Buchanan (+6.14%, GOP pick-up), Dickenson (+0.73%, GOP pick-up), Lee (+5.16%), Russell (+2.39%), Scott (+5.68%), Tazewell (+8.22%), Washington (+0.11%), Wise (+4.85%). In the other 126 counties / independent cities, he lost percentually over Bush from 2004.
McCain gained in raw votes in the following counties: Accomac (+107), Amelia (+471), Amherst (+712), Appamatox (537), Arlington (241), Augusta (+1020), Bedford (+2495), Bland (21), Boutetourt (+206), Brunswick (25), Buchanan (34 – GOP Pick-up), Buckingham (+243),
McCain lost in raw votes over Bush from 2004 in the following counties (16): Abermarle (+613), Bath (-83), Craig (-11), Fairfax (-10,986), Dickenson (-267, GOP pick-up), Fluvanna (-38), Grayson (-115), Greensville (-6), Henrico (-4428), Highland (-52), Lancaster (-77), Mathews (-41), Page (-180), Patrick (-16), Prince William (-2155, DEM pick-up), Roanoke (-25).
Mccain lost in raw votes from the following independent cities (28): Alexandria (-663), Buena Vista (-135), Charlotteville (-94), Covington (-84), Danville (-1038), Emporia (-73), Fairfax (-354), Falls Church (-104), Franklin (-37) Galax (-19), Hampton (-2923), Harrisburg (-117), Hopewell (-22), Lexington (-68). Martinsville (-227), Newport News (-3541), Norfolk (-1587), Norton (-24), Petersburg (-655), Portsmouth (-1228), Radford (-146, DEM pick-up), Richmond (-2988), Roanoke (-1267), Salem (-27), Staunton (-475), Virginia Beach (-3433), Waynesboro (-277), Winchester (-558, DEM pick-up).
So, McCain lost in raw votes over 2004 in the minority of counties, but in the majority of independent cities, making for a total of 44 „counties“ where he raw vote was under 2004. This means that in a majority of „counties“ overall , McCain improved over Bush's raw vote total. But Obama pulled in so many more votes over 2004 in these counties and more that it shifted the entire game to the democrats.
McCain had margin improvements in the following counties (6): Bland (+0.12%), Buchanan (+13.29, GOP pick-up), Craig (+0.50%), Dickenson (+2.98%, GOP pick-up), Lee (+11.26%), Russell (+4.71), Tazewell (+16.52%).
So, the GOP lost ground in either 44, 126 or 139 counties, depending on how you measure the loss. Because margins are the value used for most comparisons, the number 139 is the most reliable number of the three.
----------------------------------
The „other“ vote lost percentually over 2004 in the following counties (17) : Appomattox (-0.35%), Augusta (-0.79%), Charles City (-0.22%), Greene (-0.58%), Kings and Queens (-0.66%), Mecklenburg (-0.41%), Middlesex (-1.20%), Nottoway (-0.44%), Orange (-0.08%),Pittsylvania (-0.66%), Prince Edward (-0.34%), Richmond (-0.14%), Rockbridge (-0.41%), Russell (-0.06%), Smythe (-0.19%), Warren (-3.44%), Washington (-0.34%) / in the following „independent cities“ (8): Bedford City (-0.04%), Buena Vista (-0.14%),Danville (-0.60%), Falls Church (-0.05%), Harrisonburg (-0.01%), Hopewell (-0.47%), Lexington (-0.26%), Roanoke (-0.24%),
The „other“ vote lost in the raw vote over 2004 in: Appomattox (-12), Augusta (-192), Charles City (-3), Greene (-23), Kings and Queens (-19), Mecklenburg (-30), Middlesex (-57), Nottoway (-16), Pittsylvania (-182), Richmond (-1), Rockbridge (-26), Russell (-6), Smythe (-24), Warren (-477), Washington (-66) / in the following „independent cities“ ( ): Buena Vista (-3), Danville (-100), Hopewell (-22), Lexington (-5), Roanoke (-33).
For the „other“ vote – no margins were calculated.