VIRGINIA 2008 – County by County - Part I
Forget Ohio's inverted „C“. Here, it's more like a slanted „U“.
by Mark Rosenthal
Before VIRGINIA, I published a county by county analyses for the states of OHIO and INDIANA. Both are in three parts at Google Docs:
OHIO - Part I, Part II, Part III , raw data/ INDIANA - Part I, Part II and Part III, raw data
This makes comparing the three states easier.
President Obama, who won the Commonwealth
of Virginia with a +6.30%
margin, was the first democratic candidate to win this state since
1964 and the second democratic candidate to win since 1948.
Of note: VIRGINIA and COLORADO, both democratic pick-ups in 2008, are the no. 1 and 2 states that come closest to Obama's national winning margin; VIRGINIA went „blue“ for slightly less than the national margin while COLORADO went for President Obama with slightly more than the national margin:
|
State |
EV |
BO-% |
JM-% |
Margin |
2004 |
Partisan Shift |
CO |
9 |
53.66 |
44.71 |
8.95 |
4.67 |
+13.62 |
USA |
-- |
52.88 |
45.61 |
7.27 |
2.46 |
+9.73 |
|
VA |
13 |
52.63 |
46.33 |
6.30 |
8.20 |
+14.50 |
To be exact: the percentages for both candidates in VIRGINIA were closer to the national percentages than in any other state in the Union. Obama's percentage (52.63%) was just 0.25% away from his national percentage (52.88%) and McCain's percentage (46.53%) was 0.72% away from his national percentage (45.61%). This makes VIRGINIA the closest thing to a mirror-image of the national popular vote in 2008. It is a rarity when an unexpected swing state flips and at the same time mirrors the national figures, much less when two such states do this. Also note that these two states are in two completely different regions of the country, which is further proof that the GE 2008 was a so-called „re-alignment election“.
First, some important background information on VIRGINIA:
Since the GOP first appeared on the national ballot in 1856, there have been 37 election cycles in VA, of which the democratic party has won 19 cycles (51.35%), the GOP has won 17 cycles (45.95%), and a third party candidate won 1 cycle (2.70%); this cycle was the contentious 4-way presidential election of 1860, where John Bell (Constitution Union party) won the state with 44.63% of the PV. Incidentally, Abraham Lincoln took 4th place in 1860, with 1.13% of the PV. Notice also that for VIRGINIA, there have only been 37 instead of 39 cycles. Due to the Civil War, Virginia did not participate in the 1864 and 1868 general elections and was therefore not represented in the electoral college for those two cycles.
Aside from the tumult of 1860, a razor-thin win for Ulysses Grant (R) in 1872 and a sweeping win for Herbert Hoover (R) in 1928, the democratic party absolutely dominated Virginia through 1948, a period of 92 years. However, with the resounding election of General Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) in 1952, the „Old Dominion“ became a republican dominated state, only having gone for Johnson (D) in 1964 and now for Obama (D) in 2008.
Demographics always play a role in elections, but demographics played an especially important role in VIRGINIA in 2008. With the massive influx of new residents in northern Virginia (mostly close to the DC area), the region has been developing into a major democratic stronghold once again. This shift did not happen overnight. In the last five cycles, as is the case with the state of OHIO, Virginia was won with single-digit margins. Bill Clinton was able to reduce the republican winning margin of +4.37% in 1992 down to +1.93% in 1996, but don't forget, Bill Clinton won both times nationally in 3-way races. Conversely, George W. Bush, Jr., was able to ever-so-slightly increase his margin of +8.04% in 2000 to +8.20% in 2004. Obama's +6.30% margin caused a cross-partisan shift („swing“) of +14.50% in VIRGINIA, which is higher than the national swing of +9.73 and is indeed impressive, but, when put in context, is his 4th largest cross partisan shift (after INDIANA, NEW MEXICO and NEVADA) and his 9th largest overall.
Here the Virginia results from the 14 democratic national winning cycles:
Note: In 1876, Samuel Tilden won the national PV, likewise Grover Cleveland in 1888. Both lost the election itself (electoral back-fire), but the margins and partisan-shifts still can be counted, since both occasions were still democratic popular vote wins nationally and in Virginia.
|
Year |
Candidate |
D % |
R % |
I/O % |
Margin |
Part. Shift. |
|
1856 |
Buchanan |
59.96% |
0.00% |
40.04% |
-- |
-- |
|
1876 |
Tilden |
59.58% |
40.42% |
-- |
+19.15% |
+20.13% |
|
1884 |
Cleveland |
51.05% |
48.90% |
0.05% |
+2.15% |
-18.90% |
|
1888 |
Cleveland |
49.99% |
49.46% |
0.55% |
+0.53% |
-1.62% |
|
1892 |
Cleveland |
56.17% |
38.70% |
5.13% |
+17.46% |
+16.93% |
|
1912 |
Wilson |
65.95% |
17.00% |
17.05% |
+48.95% |
+26.79% |
|
1916 |
Wilson |
66.99% |
31.83% |
1.18% |
+35.16% |
-13.79% |
|
1932 |
Roosevelt, F |
68.46% |
30.09% |
1.45% |
+38.38% |
+8.68% |
|
1936 |
Roosevelt, F |
70.23% |
29.39% |
0.38% |
+40.84% |
+2.46% |
|
1940 |
Roosevelt, F |
68.08% |
31.55% |
0.37% |
+36.52% |
-4.32% |
|
1944 |
Roosevelt, F |
62.36% |
37.59% |
0.25% |
+24.98% |
-11.54% |
|
1948 |
Truman |
47.89% |
41.04% |
10.35% |
+6.85% |
-18.13% |
|
1964 |
Johnson |
53.54% |
46.18% |
-- |
+7.36% |
+12.83% |
|
2008 |
Obama |
52.63% |
46.33% |
1.04% |
+6.30% |
+14.50% |
Here the same table, arranged by winning percent, descending:
|
Year |
Candidate |
D % |
R % |
I/O % |
Margin |
Part. Shift. |
|
1936 |
Roosevelt, F |
70.23% |
29.39% |
0.38% |
+40.84% |
+2.46% |
|
1932 |
Roosevelt, F |
68.46% |
30.09% |
1.45% |
+38.38% |
+8.68% |
|
1940 |
Roosevelt, F |
68.08% |
31.55% |
0.37% |
+36.52% |
-4.32% |
|
1916 |
Wilson |
66.99% |
31.83% |
1.18% |
+35.16% |
-13.79% |
|
1912 |
Wilson |
65.95% |
17.00% |
17.05% |
+48.95% |
+26.79% |
|
1944 |
Roosevelt, F |
62.36% |
37.59% |
0.25% |
+24.98% |
-11.54% |
|
1856 |
Buchanan |
59.96% |
0.00% |
40.04% |
-- |
-- |
|
1876 |
Tilden |
59.58% |
40.42% |
-- |
+19.15% |
+20.13% |
|
1892 |
Cleveland |
56.17% |
38.70% |
5.13% |
+17.46% |
+16.93% |
|
1964 |
Johnson |
53.54% |
46.18% |
-- |
+7.36% |
+12.83% |
|
2008 |
Obama |
52.63% |
46.33% |
1.04% |
+6.30% |
+14.50% |
|
1884 |
Cleveland |
51.05% |
48.90% |
0.05% |
+2.15% |
-18.90% |
|
1888 |
Cleveland |
49.99% |
49.46% |
0.55% |
+0.53% |
-1.62% |
|
1948 |
Truman |
47.89% |
41.04% |
10.35% |
+6.85% |
-18.13% |
And the same table, arranged by winning margin, descending:
|
Year |
Candidate |
D % |
R % |
I/O % |
Margin |
Part. Shift. |
|
1912 |
Wilson |
65.95% |
17.00% |
17.05% |
+48.95% |
+26.79% |
|
1936 |
Roosevelt, F |
70.23% |
29.39% |
0.38% |
+40.84% |
+2.46% |
|
1940 |
Roosevelt, F |
68.08% |
31.55% |
0.37% |
+36.52% |
-4.32% |
|
1932 |
Roosevelt, F |
68.46% |
30.09% |
1.45% |
+38.38% |
+8.68% |
|
1916 |
Wilson |
66.99% |
31.83% |
1.18% |
+35.16% |
-13.79% |
|
1944 |
Roosevelt, F |
62.36% |
37.59% |
0.25% |
+24.98% |
-11.54% |
|
1876 |
Tilden |
59.58% |
40.42% |
-- |
+19.15% |
+20.13% |
|
1892 |
Cleveland |
56.17% |
38.70% |
5.13% |
+17.46% |
+16.93% |
|
1964 |
Johnson |
53.54% |
46.18% |
-- |
+7.36% |
+12.83% |
|
1948 |
Truman |
47.89% |
41.04% |
10.35% |
+6.85% |
-18.13% |
|
2008 |
Obama |
52.63% |
46.33% |
1.04% |
+6.30% |
+14.50% |
|
1884 |
Cleveland |
51.05% |
48.90% |
0.05% |
+2.15% |
-18.90% |
|
1888 |
Cleveland |
49.99% |
49.46% |
0.55% |
+0.53% |
-1.62% |
|
1856 |
Buchanan |
59.96% |
0.00% |
40.04% |
-- |
-- |
Again, the same table, this time arranged by partisan shift, descending:
|
Year |
Candidate |
D % |
R % |
I/O % |
Margin |
Part. Shift. |
|
1912 |
Wilson |
65.95% |
17.00% |
17.05% |
+48.95% |
+26.79% |
|
1876 |
Tilden |
59.58% |
40.42% |
-- |
+19.15% |
+20.13% |
|
1892 |
Cleveland |
56.17% |
38.70% |
5.13% |
+17.46% |
+16.93% |
|
2008 |
Obama |
52.63% |
46.33% |
1.04% |
+6.30% |
+14.50% |
|
1964 |
Johnson |
53.54% |
46.18% |
-- |
+7.36% |
+12.83% |
|
1932 |
Roosevelt, F |
68.46% |
30.09% |
1.45% |
+38.38% |
+8.68% |
|
1936 |
Roosevelt, F |
70.23% |
29.39% |
0.38% |
+40.84% |
+2.46% |
|
1888 |
Cleveland |
49.99% |
49.46% |
0.55% |
+0.53% |
-1.62% |
|
1940 |
Roosevelt, F |
68.08% |
31.55% |
0.37% |
+36.52% |
-4.32% |
|
1944 |
Roosevelt, F |
62.36% |
37.59% |
0.25% |
+24.98% |
-11.54% |
|
1916 |
Wilson |
66.99% |
31.83% |
1.18% |
+35.16% |
-13.79% |
|
1948 |
Truman |
47.89% |
41.04% |
10.35% |
+6.85% |
-18.13% |
|
1884 |
Cleveland |
51.05% |
48.90% |
0.05% |
+2.15% |
-18.90% |
|
1856 |
Buchanan |
59.96% |
0.00% |
40.04% |
-- |
-- |
And finally, the table to measure the partisan shift for the state over the national partisan shift for that year (this is often called „PARTISAN VALUE“):
|
Year |
Candidate |
Margin |
Part. Shift. |
Natl Part shift |
Partisan Value |
|
1892 |
Cleveland |
+17.46% |
+16.93% |
+2.18% |
+14.75% |
|
1940 |
Roosevelt, F |
+36.52% |
-4.32% |
-14.30% |
+9.98% |
|
1876 |
Tilden |
+19.15% |
+20.13% |
+14.80% |
+5.33% |
|
2008 |
Obama |
+6.30% |
+14.50% |
+9.73 |
+4.77% |
|
1888 |
Cleveland |
+0.53% |
-1.62% |
+0.26% |
+1.36% |
|
1916 |
Wilson |
+35.16% |
-13.79% |
-11.32% |
-2.47% |
|
1912 |
Wilson |
+48.95% |
+26.79% |
+22.97% |
-3.82% |
|
1936 |
Roosevelt, F |
+40.84% |
+2.46% |
+6.49% |
-4.03% |
|
1944 |
Roosevelt, F |
+24.98% |
-11.54% |
-2.46% |
-9.08% |
|
1964 |
Johnson |
+7.36% |
+12.83% |
+22.42% |
-9.59% |
|
1948 |
Truman |
+6.85% |
-18.13% |
-3.01% |
-15.12% |
|
1884 |
Cleveland |
+2.15% |
-18.90% |
+0.67% |
-19.57% |
|
1932 |
Roosevelt, F |
+38.38% |
+8.68% |
+35.18% |
-26.50% |
|
1856 |
Buchanan |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
So, based on these tables, here are undeniable facts about Obama's win in VIRGINIA in 2008:
1.) Obama set a new VIRGINIA raw vote record for a candidate of any party: 1,959,932 votes, 242,573 votes more than Bush's record-breaking raw vote from 2004. This is also the largest increase in votes for one party from one cycle the the next in VA history; the democratic party added 504,790 votes to it's total over 2004. Incidentally, McCain also did better than Bush (2004) in VIRGINIA: he bested Bush's PV take by 8,046 votes. However, the ratio of the democratic vote increase over the GOP vote increase was 63.74 to 1. The last time the democratic party had a vote increase even close to this number was in 1976, where the democratic party added 375,009 votes over it's total from 1972. And both of these numbers are larger than Ronald Reagan's 347,069 raw vote increase from 1980 to 1984. The popular vote growth rate for VIRGINIA was 16.91%.
2.) Obama won VIRGINIA with the 11th largest winning percent, the 11th largest winning margin, the 4th largest VIRGINIA state partisan shift and the 4th largest Partisan Value in US history for a democratic candidate. Of the 14 democratic winning cycles in VIRGINIA, this puts Obama roughly in the middle of the standings. That 4th largest partisan-shift, by the way, is larger than Johnson's. You have to go back to 1912 to find a democratic partisan shift in VA larger than this one.
And now, county for county...
I took the county-wide data for the entire state for both 2008 and 2004 and plugged it into an excel document, which you can find here. Subsidiary data for all 134 counties/independent cities in VIRGINIA can be found here.
Of those 134, Obama won 21 of 95 counties, or 22.11% (12 DEM retentions, 9 pick-ups), McCain won the other 74 (72 GOP retentions, 2 GOP pick-ups.). Of the 39 „Independent cities“, Obama won 28 independent cities, or 71.79% (19 democratic retentions, 9 pick-ups), McCain won the other 11 independent cities (all GOP retentions).
|
Party – VA 08 |
No. counties |
% of 95 |
No. „cities“ |
% of 39 |
Total no. |
% of 134 |
|
Democratic |
21 |
22.11% |
28 |
71.79% |
49 |
36.57% |
|
Republican |
74 |
77.89% |
11 |
28.21% |
85 |
63.43% |
|
Total |
95 |
100.00% |
39 |
100.00% |
134 |
100.00% |
At first glance, it is obvious that Obama did best (numerically) in the „independent cities.“ However, many of those „independent cities“ produced less raw votes than the counties. As a matter of fact, all 21 counties that went democratic represented 48.63% of the total 2008 PV in Virginia. This is a +.0.91% change over 2004. At the same time, the 28 independent cities that went democratic accounted for 27.66% of the total PV in Virginia, -0.71% change over 2004 (this information is found in the large excel document)
So, the differentiation between „county“ and „independent city“ here is mostly semantics.
Comparison to INDIANA and OHIO
|
State |
DEM counties |
DEM % |
GOP counties |
GOP % |
DEM Difference: |
|
Virginia |
49 of 134 |
36.57% |
85 of 134 |
63.43% |
--- |
|
Ohio |
22 of 88 |
25.00% |
66 of 88 |
75.00% |
+11.57% |
|
Indiana |
15 of 92 |
16.30% |
77 of 92 |
83.70% |
+20.27% |
In VA, Obama won more „counties“, both numerically and
percentually.
In the excel document, everything is color-coded: red= GOP, blue = DEM, green= OTH. In the case of DEM pick-ups, those counties are also shaded in light-blue. The 2 GOP pick-ups are shaded in light red.
And now comes the good stuff: here is a quick table of the number of counties, by party, where there was a percentage loss or gain, a numeric (raw vote) loss or gain, and a margin loss or gain (margin loss or gain will not be applied to the „other“ vote“):
|
Party |
% loss |
% gain |
Num. loss |
Num. Gain |
Margin loss |
Margin gain |
|
GOP |
126 |
8 |
44 |
90 |
125 |
9 |
|
DEM |
6 |
128 |
8 |
126 |
9 |
125 |
|
OTHER |
25 |
109 |
20 |
114 |
-- |
-- |
All of the counties listed by number above are listed by name in the appendix to this analysis.
McCain lost in raw votes over 2004 in the minority of counties, but in the majority of independent cities, making for a total of 44 „counties“ where he raw vote was under 2004. This means that in a majority of „counties“ overall , McCain improved over Bush's raw vote total. But Obama pulled in so many more votes over 2004 in these counties as well as the others that it shifted the entire game to the democrats.
So, the GOP lost ground in either 44, 126 or 125 counties, depending on how you measure the loss. Because margins are the value used for most comparisons, the number 125 is the most reliable number of the three.