OHIO 2008 – County by County - Part III
An analysis of the democratic pick-up counties in OHIO:
Southwest: 1 county and 1 retention worth mentioning:
The richest pick-up of the night was Hamilton County (Cincinnati), which has not gone for a democratic candidate since 1964. However, the county's percentage of the total PV for 2008 was actually 0.10% less than in 2004. Obama gained 25,534 votes over Kerry's total from 2004, while McCain lost 27,086 votes from Bush's total, resulting in a raw vote shift of 52,620. The margin shift of +12.39% is almost double the state partisan shift. A win in Hamilton County is critical as Ohio, unlike INDIANA, has three very large cities and 3 middle sized cities, and with Hamilton County now in the blue column, all six of these counties and their associated cities are now democratic dominated areas. This is part of the reason why OHIO is much more of a swing state, while INDIANA has remained, until 2008, reliably republican. Or look at it this way: from these 6 counties alone (Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery, Summit and Lucas counties), Obama garnered 1,468,051 votes (101,769 more than Kerry earned in 2004), or almost 50% of his complete raw vote total. The other half of his raw vote total came from the other 82 counties. This lopsided approach to electoral politics is not unique to Ohio, but especially pronounced in this rust-belt state.
One democratic retention in SW OHIO worth mentioning: Montgomery County, which is often THE BELLWETHER COUNTY for this state. Obama`s +6.21% margin here is close to the national margin. Dayton is the seat of Montgomery County, and is at the spedition junction of I-70 and I-75. It is also home to Wright Patterson Air Force Base and also known in Ohio as one of the culturally, economically and racially more representative counties for the entire state.
Northwest: 3 counties that are situated between democratic bastion counties of Lucas and Erie all flipped for Obama, a geographical phenomenon.
The largest partisan shift of the night for a democratic pick-up was Sandusky County: +16.34%, 2.5 times the state partisan shift. Obama's winning margin here, +4.64, was almost a mirror image of his state margin. The reason that the partisan shift is so large is due to the fact that Bush won this county in a massive landslide in 2004. In the last 60 years, only Johnson (1964), Clinton (1996) and Obama (2008) were able to pick up this county for the democratic party. Sandusky County represented 0.53% of the PV in 2008.
Neighboring Wood County flipped for Obama, resulting in a partisan shift of +13.73%. Wood county is considerably larger than Sandusky, representing 1.14% of the total PV in 2008. Though the county barely grew from 2004 to 2008, Obama picked up 4,884 votes over Kerry's total from 2004, while McCain lost 3,944 votes on Bush's total, making a 8,828 vote shift in this county alone. As with Sandusky County, only Johnson (1964), Clinton (1992 and 1996) and Obama (2008) were able to pick up this county for the demcratic party.
Neighboring Ottawa County also flipped for Obama, causing a partisan shift of +10.35%. In size, this county is the smallest of the three northern coastal counties to have flipped in 2008. This county is somewhat of a bellwether, having gone with every democratic winner since 1932.
Calculating these three counties together gives Obama a composite partisan shift of +13.82% and a pick-up of 8,746 votes plus a McCain minus of 7,425 votes.
Northeast:
Lake County, a critical swing county directly to the east of Cuyahoga County, flipped for Obama in a squeaker, where the democratic candidate won with +0.83%, resulting in a lean partisan shift of +3.41%. Lake is a relatively big county, representing 2.14% of the total PV in 2008. Lake county is also one of the the wealthiest counties in Ohio. However, Johnson (1964), Carter (1976), Clinton (1996) and Obama (2008) have carried this county.
East-Central: 1 county
Tuscarawas County, the southern neighbor to Stark County, running in a direct north-south line from Cuyahoga to Summit to Stark county, flipped to Obama, resulting in a partisan shift of +14.02%. His winning margin here was a lean +2.04%, but as in Sandusky County, Obama overturned a massive Bush landslide from 2004. As with Wood County, only Johnson (1964), Clinton (1992 and 1996) and Obama (2008) were able to pick up this county for the democratic party.
South East: no pick-ups.
The reason for this detailed analysis of the 6 democratic pickups is this: Jay Cost put out an analysis of OHIO under the title of „SWING STATE REVIEW“, in two parts: Part I (July 16, 2008) and Part II (July 21, 2008). The analysis has excellent maps and graphics.
The crux of his analysis:
„Clinton's victory is visually striking. It is a kind of inverted "C." He dominated the counties along Lake Erie and the Ohio-Pennsylvania border. Prior to the election of 1932, these places were solidly Republican. With FDR in 1932, they switched sides and generally have not switched back.
Furthermore, note the cluster of counties that Clinton carried in the southern part of the state. These are the poorest counties in all of Ohio. There is little farming or industry here. They are actually part of Appalachia, and many of them are classified as economically distressed. Typically in these counties, you'll find the biggest employers to be various governmental agencies (local school districts, the state, etc) and Wal-Mart.
Additionally, observe the three counties in the middle of the state that Clinton won. These are Montgomery County (Dayton), Clark County (Springfield), and fast-growing Franklin County (Columbus). Each of these counties have sizeable African American populations, which makes them more electorally balanced than their neighbors. Also, note the suburban counties that surround Franklin, Hamilton (Cincinnati), and Cuyahoga (Cleveland). By and large, Clinton did not win them, but he kept Dole's margins relatively small. Neither Al Gore nor John Kerry could do that to George W. Bush, which is a big reason both of them lost.“
The purpose of this is to note that Obama won Ohio without the „inverted C“, hence the title of this report. As a matter of fact, virtually all of the counties in the appalachian part of Ohio are the counties where Obama came up with less votes than Kerry. So, this part of Ohio was obvious slightly allergic to Obama. Examples of such counties where Obama did worse than Kerry: Adams (-111, +0.86), Scioto (-1,901 votes, -2.18%), Lawrence (-858 votes, -0.51%), Gallia (-589 votes, -2.62%), Meigs (-344 votes, -1.86%), Washington (-170 votes, -0.17%), Monroe (-583 votes, -1.83%), Belmont (-1,274, -2.45%), Jefferson (-1389, -3.41%), Columbiana (-1547, -2.43%). These counties are all in a row on the border to KY and WV. In other words, these are appalachian counties.
Analysis of the border to INDIANA:
Counties along to border to INDIANA:
|
INDIANA |
|
OHIO |
|
Difference |
|
County |
Margin Shift |
County |
Margin Shift |
|
|
Steuben |
-21.85% |
Williams |
-20.56% |
1.29% |
|
DeKalb |
-21.54% |
Defiance |
-13.43% |
8.11% |
|
Allen |
-12.07% |
Paulding |
-14.49% |
2.42% |
|
Adams |
-4.07% |
Van Wert |
-17.17% |
13.10% |
|
Jay |
-24.79% |
Mercer |
-7.00% |
17.79% |
|
Randolph |
-21.51% |
Darke |
-2.09% |
19.42% |
|
Wayne |
-17.17% |
Preble |
+0.60% |
17.77% |
|
Union |
-11.51% |
(Preble) |
(+0.60%) |
12.11% |
|
Franklin |
-6.49% |
Butler |
-9.56% |
3.07% |
|
Dearborn |
-1.46% |
Hamilton |
+12.39% |
13.85% |
|
Average 1: |
-14.25% |
Average 1: |
-10.68% |
3.57% |
|
Average 2:** |
-19.75% |
Average2: |
-10.77% |
8.98% |
Now, this table is fascinating to see. Here I have lined up the 10 Indiana counties that border Ohio across from their 9 counterparts. Also interesting to notice is how well they fit each other geographically, with little overlap. Wayne and Union counties in IN do indeed both pass to Preble county in OH. I had really thought there would be a close correspondence to these counties, but apparently a borderline makes a big difference, after all. Between Steuben and Williams counties in the extreme northern tip of both states is a good correspondence, also between Allen and Paulding counties. In the middle region of both states, there is no visible correspondence: where the margin shift is high on one side of the border, it is low on the other. There is a pretty good correspondence between Franklin and Butler counties and in Dearborn county on the IN side, we can see that the pull of the media market from Hamilton county on the OH side had absolutely no effect on voters in Indiana.
For the first average, I just added up the percentages and divided them by the correct number of counties.
For the second average, I ran those counties through the excel document to get the exact raw count, and therefore, the exact percentages and margin shifts. It is interesting to note that in OHIO, the two averages are almost identical, whereas in INDIANA, they are miles apart from each other. This is probably because Hamilton county dwarfs the other eight counties on the Indiana border, where there is no large city directly across the border. So, this skews the statistic.
Here the same table, with the winning margins instead of the margin shifts:
|
INDIANA |
|
OHIO |
|
Difference |
|
County |
Winning margin |
County |
Winning margin |
|
|
Steuben |
9.83% |
Williams |
9.27% |
0.56% |
|
DeKalb |
15.19% |
Defiance |
10.44% |
4.75% |
|
Allen |
4.34% |
Paulding |
11.79% |
7.45% |
|
Adams |
25.72% |
Van Wert |
27.23% |
1.51% |
|
Jay |
7.85% |
Mercer |
43.42% |
35.57% |
|
Randolph |
8.78% |
Darke |
36.09% |
27.31% |
|
Wayne |
3.84% |
Preble |
31.18% |
27.34% |
|
Union |
25.00% |
(Preble) |
(31.18%) |
6.18% |
|
Franklin |
34.06% |
Butler |
22.58% |
11.48% |
|
Dearborn |
34.95% |
Hamilton |
6.98% |
41.93% |
|
Average 1: |
17.96% |
Average 1: |
20.55% |
2.59% |
|
Average 2:** |
10.36% |
Average2: |
5.98% |
4.38% |
Again,measuring winning margins against each other, we have a good correspondence along three county groupings: Steuben to Williams, Adams to Van Wert, and Union to Preble. So, apparently there is not as much political commonality along the Ohio-Indiana border as I thought. Fascinating!
FACIT: It was a gentle takeover of OHIO. The GOP deserted McCain some, but not nearly as much as in the case of INDIANA. More likely is that the Obama campaign's voter registration and GOTV work on the ground did the trick for the former Senator from Illinois, allowing him to capture the state with a county wide configuration that is different from that of his democratic predecessors.