OHIO 2008 – County by County - Part II
County-wide analysis:
Here is a table of all 88 counties, in descending order of partisan shift. This table is based on the raw numbers from the excel document . Also included is the county's % of the statewide PV from 2008 and 2004, plus the difference between the two („% shift“).
How to interpret this table:
EXAMPLE 1: Franklin county comprised 9.34% of the PV in Ohio in 2004, and 9.82% of the PV in OHIO in 2008, a +0.48% growth rate. Obama earned a +11.46% margin shift, the largest margin shift for the democratic candidate in a retention from 2004.
EXAMPLE 2: Union County. This county grew from 0.40% of the PV in Ohio in 2004 to 0.44% of the PV in Ohio in 2008, a marginal +0.04% growth rate. Nonetheless, Mcain came in with 126 less votes than Bush from 2004, while Obama came in with 2,096 more votes than Kerry from 2004. This means that the overall +0.04% growth in this county, though still a decidedly GOP county, came from voters who voted democratic. This is similar to the story from INDIANA, where all of those white, rural counties showed marked gains for the democratic party, even in counties where the democratic party still lost in landslides.
You will see that for most counties, the growth rate, positive or negative, is negligible and therefore statistically insignificant.
And don't forget: a negative partisan shift in red (GOP) means the same thing as a positive partisan shift in blue (DEM); conversely, a negative partisan shift in blue (DEM) means the same thing as a positive partisan shift for the GOP.
Blue shading = DEM pick-up.
|
County |
% of 2008 PV |
% of 2004 PV |
% shift |
Partisan shift |
|
Williams |
0.32% |
0.33% |
-0.01% |
-20.56% |
|
Henry |
0.26% |
0.27% |
-0.01% |
-18.80% |
|
Hancock |
0.65% |
0.63% |
+0.02% |
-18.35% |
|
Van Wert |
0.26% |
0.26% |
0.00 |
-17.17% |
|
Sandusky |
0.53% |
0.52% |
+0.01% |
+16.84% |
|
Fulton |
0.38% |
0.39% |
-0.01% |
-16.54% |
|
Wyandot |
0.19% |
0.20% |
-0.01% |
-15.67% |
|
Seneca |
0.48% |
0.48% |
0.00 |
+15.59% |
|
Paulding |
0.17% |
0.18% |
-0.01% |
-14.49% |
|
Tuscarawas |
0.75% |
0.76% |
-0.01% |
+14.02% |
|
Wood |
1.14% |
1.13% |
+0.01% |
+13.73% |
|
Huron |
0.45% |
0.45% |
0.00 |
-13.47% |
|
Defiance |
0.34% |
0.33% |
+0.01% |
-13.43% |
|
Delaware |
1.62% |
1.43% |
+0.19% |
-12.86% |
|
Union |
0.44% |
0.40% |
+0.04% |
-12.72% |
|
Hamilton |
7.43% |
7.53% |
-0.10% |
+12.39% |
|
Allen |
0.88% |
0.88% |
0.00 |
-12.07% |
|
Franklin |
9.82% |
9.34% |
+0.48% |
+11.46% |
|
Putnam |
0.33% |
0.33% |
0.00% |
-11.23% |
|
Lucas |
3.85% |
3.92% |
-0.06% |
+10.70% |
|
Clinton |
0.34% |
0.33% |
+0.01% |
-10.59% |
|
Ottawa |
0.40% |
0.41% |
-0.01% |
+10.35% |
|
Holmes |
0.19% |
0.20% |
-0.01% |
-10.30% |
|
USA |
-- |
-- |
-- |
+9.72% |
|
Butler |
3.04% |
2.96% |
+0.08% |
-9.56% |
|
Fairfield |
1.26% |
1.21% |
+0.05% |
-9.33% |
|
Clermont |
1.67% |
1.58% |
+0.09% |
-9.28% |
|
Logan |
0.39% |
0.38% |
+0.01% |
-9.20% |
|
Crawford |
0.37% |
0.39% |
-0.02% |
-9.06% |
|
Marion |
0.51% |
0.52% |
-0.01% |
-9.03% |
|
Wayne |
0.91% |
0.92% |
-0.01% |
-8.69% |
|
Warren |
1.86% |
1.68% |
+0.18% |
-8.49% |
|
Coshochton |
0.30% |
0.31% |
-0.01% |
-8.40% |
|
Licking |
1.44% |
1.41% |
+0.03% |
-8.15% |
|
Athens |
0.55% |
0.53% |
+0.02% |
+8.00% |
|
Muskingum |
0.69% |
0.69% |
0.00 |
-7.82% |
|
Ashland |
0.44% |
0.44% |
0.00 |
-7.30% |
|
Auglaize |
0.41% |
0.41% |
0.00 |
-7.20% |
|
Mercer |
0.37% |
0.37% |
0.00 |
-7.00% |
|
Knox |
0.49% |
0.48% |
+0.01% |
-6.91% |
|
Ashtabula |
0.79% |
0.82% |
+0.02% |
+6.83% |
|
Erie |
0.72% |
0.71% |
-0.01% |
+6.77% |
|
OHIO |
100.00% |
100.00% |
0.00 |
+6.69% |
|
Highland |
0.34% |
0.33% |
+0.01% |
-6.29% |
|
Richland |
1.07% |
1.10% |
-0.03% |
-6.22% |
|
Medina |
1.58% |
1.51% |
+0.07% |
-6.03% |
|
Shelby |
0.41% |
0.41% |
0.00 |
-6.03% |
|
Morgan |
0.12% |
0.12% |
0.00 |
-6.01% |
|
Hardin |
0.23% |
0.24% |
-0.01% |
-5.70% |
|
Geauga |
0.90% |
0.90% |
0.00 |
+5.54% |
|
Champaign |
0.33% |
0.33% |
0.00 |
+5.46% |
|
Morrow |
0.29% |
0.29% |
0.00 |
-5.41% |
|
Lorain |
2.57% |
2.50% |
-0.07% |
+5.22% |
|
Cuyahoga |
11.66% |
11.97% |
-0.31% |
+5.07% |
|
Caroll |
0.24% |
0.25% |
-0.01% |
-5.07% |
|
Madison |
0.31% |
0.31% |
0.00 |
-4.98% |
|
Hocking |
0.23% |
0.23% |
0.00 |
-4.96% |
|
Montgomery |
4.88% |
5.02% |
-0.14% |
+4.57% |
|
Brown |
0.35% |
0.35% |
0.00 |
-4.43% |
|
Greene |
1.46% |
1.41% |
+0.05% |
-4.13% |
|
Adams |
0.20% |
0.21% |
-0.01% |
-4.07% |
|
Stark |
3.28% |
3.35% |
-0.07% |
+3.80% |
|
Harrison |
0.14% |
0.14% |
0.00 |
-3.67% |
|
Lake |
2.13% |
2.16% |
-0.03% |
+3.41% |
|
Summit |
4.87% |
4.91% |
-0.04% |
+3.32% |
|
Guernsey |
0.30% |
0.32% |
-0.02% |
-3.25% |
|
Miami |
0.92% |
0.92% |
0.00 |
-3.23% |
|
Pike |
0.22% |
0.22% |
0.00 |
-3.19% |
|
Ross |
0.56% |
0.56% |
0.00 |
-3.05% |
|
Fayette |
0.20% |
0.21% |
-0.01% |
-2.82% |
|
Pickaway |
0.42% |
0.41% |
+0.01% |
-2.77% |
|
Noble |
0.11% |
0.12% |
-0.01% |
-2.34% |
|
Portage |
1.37% |
1.36% |
+0.01% |
+2.33% |
|
Darke |
0.45% |
0.30% |
+0.15% |
-2.09% |
|
Washington |
0.52% |
0.54% |
-0.02% |
-0.99% |
|
Perry |
0.27% |
0.27% |
0.00 |
-0.96% |
|
Mahoning |
2.23% |
2.36% |
-0.13% |
+0.61% |
|
Vinton |
0.10% |
0.11% |
-0.01% |
-0.20% |
|
Jackson |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.00 |
-0.04% |
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Clarke |
1.17% |
1.22% |
-0.05% |
+0.46% |
|
Preble |
0.37% |
0.38% |
-0.01% |
+0.60% |
|
Trumbull |
1.87% |
1.92% |
-0.05% |
-1.41% |
|
Meigs |
0.18% |
0.19% |
-0.01% |
+1.43% |
|
Monroe |
0.12% |
0.14% |
-0.02% |
-1.44% |
|
Scioto |
0.57% |
0.63% |
-0.06% |
+2.25% |
|
Columbiana |
0.85% |
0.88% |
-0.03% |
+2.91% |
|
Gallia |
0.23% |
0.25% |
-0.02% |
+3.01% |
|
Lawrence |
0.48% |
0.49% |
-0.01% |
-3.13% |
|
Belmont |
0.57% |
0.59% |
-0.02% |
-3.25% |
|
Jefferson |
0.63% |
0.65% |
-0.02% |
-4.85% |
From this table, we can see that 77 of 88 counties trended democratic, that 41 of which trended more democratic than the state partisan shift (+6.69) and that 23 of those 41 trended more democratic than the national trend. (+9.72). 11 counties trended more republican than in 2004. In 5 of those 11 counties, the trend was less than 2% and the largest partisan shift toward the GOP was in Jefferson county (an Appalachian county), with -4.85% for the DEMS or, +4.85 for the GOP.
Here a numeric breakdown, for the democratic party with OHIO and INDIANA side by side:
|
Partisan-shift range |
OHIO |
OHIO |
INDIANA |
INDIANA |
|
|
No. of Counties |
% of 88 |
No. of Counties |
% of 92 |
|
+30% and higher |
0 |
0.00% |
5 |
0.54% |
|
+25% to 25.99% |
0 |
0.00% |
12 |
13.01% |
|
+20% to +24.99% |
1 |
1.14% |
41 |
44.57% |
|
+15% to +19.99% |
7 |
7.95% |
16 |
17.39% |
|
+10% to +14.99% |
15 |
17.06% |
10 |
10.87% |
|
+5% to +9.99% |
30 |
34.09% |
6 |
6.52% |
|
+1% to +4.99% |
19 |
21.59% |
2 |
2.17% |
|
+0% to +0.99% |
5 |
5.68% |
0 |
0.00% |
|
-0% to -0.99% |
2 |
2.27% |
0 |
0.00% |
|
-1% to -4.99% |
9 |
10.22% |
0 |
0.00% |
Note: the light blue shading indicates the partisan-shift range with the highest number of counties. The light grey shading indicates the partisan-shift range with the second highest number of counties
Here the 88 county table again, re-sorted in descending order of county size, based on % of statewide PV in 2008 (blue shading= DEM pick-up). To get a picture of how unbalanced this all is, the combined strength of the 41 smallest counties (making 11.42%) roughly equals the electoral strength of Cuyahoga County alone (11.66%)!!
|
County |
% of 2008 PV |
% of 2004 PV |
% shift |
Partisan shift |
|
Cuyahoga |
11.66% |
11.97% |
-0.31% |
+5.07% |
|
Franklin |
9.82% |
9.34% |
+0.48% |
+11.46% |
|
Hamilton |
7.43% |
7.53% |
-0.10% |
+12.39% |
|
Montgomery |
4.88% |
5.02% |
-0.14% |
+4.57% |
|
Summit |
4.87% |
4.91% |
-0.04% |
+3.32% |
|
Lucas |
3.85% |
3.92% |
-0.06% |
+10.70% |
|
Stark |
3.28% |
3.35% |
-0.07% |
+3.80% |
|
Butler |
3.04% |
2.96% |
+0.08% |
-9.56% |
|
Lorain |
2.57% |
2.50% |
-0.07% |
+5.22% |
|
Mahoning |
2.23% |
2.36% |
-0.13% |
+0.61% |
|
Lake |
2.13% |
2.16% |
-0.03% |
+3.41% |
|
Warren |
1.86% |
1.68% |
+0.18% |
-8.49% |
|
Trumbull |
1.87% |
1.92% |
-0.05% |
-1.41% |
|
Clermont |
1.67% |
1.58% |
+0.09% |
-9.28% |
|
Delaware |
1.62% |
1.43% |
+0.19% |
-12.86% |
|
Medina |
1.58% |
1.51% |
+0.07% |
-6.03% |
|
Greene |
1.46% |
1.41% |
+0.05% |
-4.13% |
|
Licking |
1.44% |
1.41% |
+0.03% |
-8.15% |
|
Portage |
1.37% |
1.36% |
+0.01% |
+2.33% |
|
Fairfield |
1.26% |
1.21% |
+0.05% |
-9.33% |
|
Clarke |
1.17% |
1.22% |
-0.05% |
+0.46% |
|
Wood |
1.14% |
1.13% |
+0.01% |
+13.73% |
|
Richland |
1.07% |
1.10% |
-0.03% |
-6.22% |
|
Miami |
0.92% |
0.92% |
0.00 |
-3.23% |
|
Wayne |
0.91% |
0.92% |
-0.01% |
-8.69% |
|
Geauga |
0.90% |
0.90% |
0.00 |
+5.54% |
|
Allen |
0.88% |
0.88% |
0.00 |
-12.07% |
|
Columbiana |
0.85% |
0.88% |
-0.03% |
+2.91% |
|
Ashtabula |
0.79% |
0.82% |
+0.02% |
+6.83% |
|
Tuscarawas |
0.75% |
0.76% |
-0.01% |
+14.02% |
|
Erie |
0.72% |
0.71% |
-0.01% |
+6.77% |
|
Muskingum |
0.69% |
0.69% |
0.00 |
-7.82% |
|
Hancock |
0.65% |
0.63% |
+0.02% |
-18.35% |
|
Jefferson |
0.63% |
0.65% |
-0.02% |
+4.85% |
|
Belmont |
0.57% |
0.59% |
-0.02% |
-3.25% |
|
Scioto |
0.57% |
0.63% |
-0.06% |
+2.25% |
|
Ross |
0.56% |
0.56% |
0.00 |
-3.05% |
|
Athens |
0.55% |
0.53% |
+0.02% |
+8.00% |
|
Sandusky |
0.53% |
0.52% |
+0.01% |
+16.84% |
|
Washington |
0.52% |
0.54% |
-0.02% |
-0.99% |
|
Marion |
0.51% |
0.52% |
-0.01% |
-9.03% |
|
Knox |
0.49% |
0.48% |
+0.01% |
-6.91% |
|
Lawrence |
0.48% |
0.49% |
-0.01% |
-3.13% |
|
Seneca |
0.48% |
0.48% |
0.00 |
+15.59% |
|
Huron |
0.45% |
0.45% |
0.00 |
-13.47% |
|
Darke |
0.45% |
0.30% |
+0.15% |
-2.09% |
|
Union |
0.44% |
0.40% |
+0.04% |
-12.72% |
|
Ashland |
0.44% |
0.44% |
0.00 |
-7.30% |
|
Pickaway |
0.42% |
0.41% |
+0.01% |
-2.77% |
|
Shelby |
0.41% |
0.41% |
0.00 |
-6.03% |
|
Auglaize |
0.41% |
0.41% |
0.00 |
-7.20% |
|
Ottawa |
0.40% |
0.41% |
-0.01% |
+10.35% |
|
Logan |
0.39% |
0.38% |
+0.01% |
-9.20% |
|
Fulton |
0.38% |
0.39% |
-0.01% |
-16.54% |
|
Preble |
0.37% |
0.38% |
-0.01% |
+0.60% |
|
Crawford |
0.37% |
0.39% |
-0.02% |
-9.06% |
|
Mercer |
0.37% |
0.37% |
0.00 |
-7.00% |
|
Brown |
0.35% |
0.35% |
0.00 |
-4.43% |
|
Highland |
0.34% |
0.33% |
+0.01% |
-6.29% |
|
Clinton |
0.34% |
0.33% |
+0.01% |
-10.59% |
|
Defiance |
0.34% |
0.33% |
+0.01% |
-13.43% |
|
Putnam |
0.33% |
0.33% |
0.00% |
-11.23% |
|
Champaign |
0.33% |
0.33% |
0.00 |
+5.46% |
|
Williams |
0.32% |
0.33% |
-0.01% |
-20.56% |
|
Madison |
0.31% |
0.31% |
0.00 |
-4.98% |
|
Guernsey |
0.30% |
0.32% |
-0.02% |
-3.25% |
|
Coshochton |
0.30% |
0.31% |
-0.01% |
-8.40% |
|
Morrow |
0.29% |
0.29% |
0.00 |
-5.41% |
|
Perry |
0.27% |
0.27% |
0.00 |
-0.96% |
|
Van Wert |
0.26% |
0.26% |
0.00 |
-17.17% |
|
Henry |
0.26% |
0.27% |
-0.01% |
-18.80% |
|
Jackson |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.00 |
-0.04% |
|
Caroll |
0.24% |
0.25% |
-0.01% |
-5.07% |
|
Gallia |
0.23% |
0.25% |
-0.02% |
+3.01% |
|
Hardin |
0.23% |
0.24% |
-0.01% |
-5.70% |
|
Hocking |
0.23% |
0.23% |
0.00 |
-4.96% |
|
Pike |
0.22% |
0.22% |
0.00 |
-3.19% |
|
Fayette |
0.20% |
0.21% |
-0.01% |
-2.82% |
|
Adams |
0.20% |
0.21% |
-0.01% |
-4.07% |
|
Wyandot |
0.19% |
0.20% |
-0.01% |
-15.67% |
|
Holmes |
0.19% |
0.20% |
-0.01% |
-10.30% |
|
Meigs |
0.18% |
0.19% |
-0.01% |
+1.43% |
|
Paulding |
0.17% |
0.18% |
-0.01% |
-14.49% |
|
Harrison |
0.14% |
0.14% |
0.00 |
-3.67% |
|
Monroe |
0.12% |
0.14% |
-0.02% |
-1.44% |
|
Morgan |
0.12% |
0.12% |
0.00 |
-6.01% |
|
Noble |
0.11% |
0.12% |
-0.01% |
-2.34% |
|
Vinton |
0.10% |
0.11% |
-0.01% |
-0.20% |
Notice that of the top 15 counties in size (% of the popular vote from 2008), 11 of them are democratic counties, which means that Obama won in all the densely populated areas. And of these 11 counties, 10 of them showed a percentual DECREASE over 2004. Only Hamilton County (which was a DEM pick-up) showed a percentual INCREASE of the PV over 2004.