Indiana 2008 – County by County - Part III
Part I is here.
Part II is here.
Here the table again, resorted in descending order of county size, based on % of statewide PV in 2008:
County | % of 2008 PV | % of 2004 PV | % shift | Partisan shift |
Marion | 13.81% | 13.00% | +0.80% | +26.40% |
Lake | 7.59% | 7.62% | -0.03% | +11.45% |
Allen | 5.46% | 5.25% | +0.21% | -22.89% |
Hamilton | 4.70% | 4.25% | -0.45% | -26.89% |
St. Joseph | 4.30% | 4.40% | -0.10% | +19.47% |
Vanderburgh | 2.82% | 2.86% | -0.04% | +20.43% |
Porter | 2.68% | 2.63% | +0.05% | +15.53% |
Elkhardt | 2.60% | 2.49% | +0.11% | -29.54% |
Tippecanoe | 2.49% | 2.12% | +0.37% | +30.85% |
Hendricks | 2.36% | 2.12% | +0.24% | -24.24% |
Monroe | 2.30% | 2.04% | +0.26% | +23.98% |
Johnson | 2.14% | 2.08% | +0.06% | -22.70% |
Madison | 2.08% | 2.22% | -0.14% | +25.94% |
Delaware | 1.82% | 1.94% | -0.13% | +28.77 |
Clark | 1.73% | 1.72% | +0.01% | -9.11% |
LaPorte | 1.70% | 1.73% | -0.03% | +22.50% |
Vigo | 1.59% | 1.61% | -0.02% | +22.28% |
Howard | 1.40% | 1.50% | -0.10% | -22.79% |
Floyd | 1.33% | 1.37% | -0.04% | -7.65% |
Hancock | 1.24% | 1.13% | -0.11% | -20.15% |
Bartholomew | 1.13% | 1.16% | -0.03% | -23.68% |
Kosciuosko | 1.09% | 1.15% | -0.06% | -19.64% |
Morgan | 1.05% | 1.05% | 0.00% | -21.13% |
Warrick | 1.04% | 1.05% | -0.01% | -17.70% |
Wayne | 1.04% | 1.12% | -0.08% | -17.17% |
Boone | 0.97% | 0.93% | -0.04% | -24.13% |
Grant | 0.96% | 1.11% | -0.15% | -24.30% |
Dearborn | 0.81% | 0.85% | -0.04% | -1.46% |
Henry | 0.77% | 0.83% | -0.06% | -25.15% |
Dubois | 0.67% | 0.69% | -0.03% | -33.99% |
Marshall | 0.67% | 0.72% | -0.05% | +22.81% |
Lawrence | 0.67% | 0.72% | -0.05% | -18.21% |
Harrison | 0.66% | 0.70% | -0.04% | -9.95% |
Shelby | 0.64% | 0.65% | -0.01% | -23.88% |
Jackson | 0.63% | 0.66% | -0.03% | -23.08% |
Noble | 0.62% | 0.64% | -0.02% | -23.89% |
DeKalb | 0.62% | 0.62% | 0.00% | -21.54% |
Knox | 0.60% | 0.64% | -0.04% | -21.05% |
Huntington | 0.59% | 0.63% | -0.04% | -22.34% |
Cass | 0.57% | 0.56% | +0.01% | -28.55% |
Montgomery | 0.56% | 0.59% | -0.03% | -30.69% |
Whitley | 0.55% | 0.55% | 0.00% | -20.30% |
Gibson | 0.55% | 0.59% | -0.04% | -12.48% |
Putnam | 0.53% | 0.53% | 0.00 | -24.62% |
Miami | 0.51% | 0.55% | -0.04% | -22.46% |
Steuben | 0.51% | 0.52% | -0.01% | -21.85% |
Wabash | 0.50% | 0.55% | -0.05% | -21.75% |
Greene | 0.50% | 0.54% | -0.04% | -15.44% |
Adams | 0.49% | 0.54% | -0.05% | -20.92% |
Jefferson | 0.49% | 0.53% | -0.04% | -14.48% |
Wells | 0.47% | 0.50% | -0.03% | -17.65% |
Jasper | 0.47% | 0.48% | -0.01% | -16.58% |
Posey | 0.46% | 0.49% | -0.03% | -23.63% |
Clinton | 0.45% | 0.48% | -0.03% | -30.23% |
Ripley | 0.44% | 0.48% | -0.04% | -10.24% |
Jennings | 0.43% | 0.43% | 0.00% | -23.61% |
Clay | 0.41% | 0.44% | -0.03% | -25.83% |
Washington | 0.41% | 0.43% | -0.02% | -10.59% |
White | 0.39% | 0.42% | -0.03% | -27.38% |
Randolph | 0.39% | 0.45% | -0.06% | -21.51% |
Franklin | 0.39% | 0.40% | -0.01% | -6.49% |
Decatur | 0.38% | 0.41% | -0.03% | +23.45% |
Spencer | 0.37% | 0.40% | -0.03% | +20.67% |
Daviess | 0.38% | 0.43% | -0.05% | -15.38% |
LaGrange | 0.34% | 0.36% | -0.02% | -21.91% |
Fayette | 0.34% | 0.38% | -0.04% | -16.97% |
Starke | 0.34% | 0.36% | -0.02% | +12.83% |
Fulton | 0.33% | 0.35% | -0.02% | -23.25% |
Caroll | 0.32% | 0.35% | -0.03% | -23.96% |
Sullivan | 0.32% | 0.34% | -0.02% | -19.08% |
Scott | 0.32% | 0.35% | -0.03% | -9.23% |
Perry | 0.31% | 0.34% | -0.03% | +22.91% |
Jay | 0.30% | 0.33% | -0.03% | -24.79% |
Owen | 0.30% | 0.31% | -0.01% | -22.06% |
Brown | 0.29% | 0.30% | -0.01% | -21.75% |
Orange | 0.29% | 0.35% | -0.06% | -18.17% |
Rush | 0.28% | 0.30% | -0.02% | -31.66% |
Tipton | 0.28% | 0.32% | -0.04% | -28.04% |
Fountain | 0.27% | 0.32% | +0.05% | -21.30% |
Vermillion | 0.26% | 0.28% | -0.02% | +15.51% |
Parke | 0.25% | 0.28% | -0.03% | -17.24% |
Pulaski | 0.22% | 0.23% | -0.01% | -21.00% |
Newton | 0.22% | 0.24% | -0.02% | -18.31% |
Pike | 0.22% | 0.25% | -0.03% | -12.72% |
Blackford | 0.20% | 0.22% | -0.02% | -28.46% |
Martin | 0.18% | 0.20% | -0.02% | -8.99% |
Crawford | 0.17% | 0.19% | -0.02% | -12.55% |
Warren | 0.15% | 0.16% | 0.01% | -20.25% |
Benton | 0.14% | 0.16% | -0.02% | -25.38% |
Switzerland | 0.13% | 0.15% | -0.02% | -10.28% |
Union | 0.12% | 0.14% | -0.02% | -11.51% |
Ohio | 0.11% | 0.12% | -0.01% | -3.19% |
The table above indicates that 11 of Obama's winning counties are within the top 17 largest counties in Indiana. The other 4 counties are very small counties. Those 11 large counties carry disproportionate electoral power due to their size: those 11 counties make for 11.92% of 92 counties (numberically) but these 11 counties that went for Obama accounted for 42.38% of the total PV in INDIANA. Even so, had Obama carried these counties with 100% of the vote, that would not have been enough to win. This also disproves that myth that Obama only won all the big counties. He did not. McCain also won 6 of the 17 largest counties in INDIANA.
If we take all 15 counties that Obama won (Delaware, Lake, LaPorte, Madison, Marion, Monroe, Perry, Porter, St. Joseph, Spencer, Starke, Tippecanoe, Vanderburgh, Vermillion, Vigo) add them up and take the average percentages and compare those same counties to 2004, we see almost exactly the same partisan shift (+21.82%) as for the state as a whole (+21.71%):
Obama „15“ | Obama % | McCain % | Other % | Raw margin | Margin % |
2008 | 60.34% | 38.55% | 1.11% | +266,707 | +21.79% |
2004 | 49.56% | 49.59% | 0.85% | +277 | +0.03% |
Diff: | +10.77% | -11.04% | +0.26% | +266,984 | +21.82% |
The table above is also the last set of calculations in the excel data mentioned above .
This is proof that the Obama counties did not massively offset the rest of the state, statistically speaking. But the sheer size of Marion County allowed Obama a 107,674 vote margin over McCain, also 101,497 more votes than Kerry's margin from 2004 (Kerry barely carried Marion County, with just 6,177 votes). And this margin was difficult for McCain to overcome with the rural vote as those rural counties that would have usually stayed loyally overwhelmingly republican also shifted blue. This is a critical point in this analysis.
Further, the argument that the black vote in Indy stole the election does not hold up. The pattern of a rougly 20% or more shift to the left in the state happened in 58 counties, and 48 of those were overwhelmingly white GOP counties. As a matter of fact, there are less black voters in IN than either OH or PA.
Also, the argument that the chicago media market took control of the upper NW part of the state does not hold: Lake County, which is right in this corner, trended only +11.45% more democratic than in 2004, was well under the state trend. Neighboring Porter County had a +15.53% democratic trend, also under the state trend. Neignboring LaPorte, with +22.40% dem trend, was indeed in line with the state trend; St. Joseph with +19.47, was just slightly under the state trend. But directly under St. Joseph County, Stark county, with +12.83% dem trend, was also well under the state trend. If these counties that are closest to the Chicago media market were to have been controlled so tightly by the Obama team from Illinois, then these counties should have posted partisan shifts well ABOVE the state trend, not below.
As for liberal bastions growing, it is true that Marion County jumped from 13.00% to 13.80% of the state PV take. Likewise, Monroe County (IU) jumped from 2.04% to 2.30% of the state PV take, but this combined increased of 1.06% cannot account for +10.65% percent increase in the state total for Obama over Kerry from 2004. No, those votes must have come from somewhere else as well.
The complaint that Barr (L) ruined it for McCain looks feasable on paper: Barr took 1.06% of the PV in IN, the margin between Obama and McCain was +1.03%. So, if every single Barr voter had gone for McCain, then McCain would have won. The only problem with this is that the Birch society is big in certain counties in IN, and were Barr not on the ballot, then most of those voters would have simply stayed home, either because they are died-in-the-wool libertarians or they were disgruntled republicans who wanted to cast a vote in protest over McCain's having been nominated in the first place. Had Barr not been on the ballot in IN, then the statistics would have shifted slightly, Obama's +28,391 vote margin over McCain would have carried more weight without Barr votes also in the mix and therefore Obama would have surely come over the 50% mark. So, it is more likely than not that the absence of a Barr candidacy in IN would not have shifted the state to McCain, but rather, it would have turned a high minority win for Obama into a lean majority win.
When we look at the data with a discerning eye, then the truth is that a large chunk of the the core of the republican voters abandoned McCain in INDIANA, to some degree in every single county, but by more than the national partisan shift in 85 of 92 counties. Had those rural counties voted for McCain the way they voted for Bush in 2004, then, in spite of massive voter registration on the part of the Obama team and massive gains in the Indianapolis area, McCain would have won INDIANA.
There can be no doubt about it: the rural counties in INDIANA, even though Obama lost most of them, contributed significantly to his win. Lots and lots of little fish add up to one big fish!
Ramifications for the GOP: this is no longer 1932, where IN actually went for FDR by less than the national swing. In 2008, IN lead the pack in having the largest cross-party shift in the nation. Add to this those rural counties that went for the GOP but with drastically weakened margins and I conclude that the GOP should not take for granted that those rural voters will revert back to the republican party in 2012. More likely is that INDIANA voters will decide whether or not to give Obama four more years based solely on the work he does in the first four years. And with the power of the incumbency behind him and surely a boatload of money as well.....