GORDON Brown famously told the 2003 Labour Conference that the party was “best when we are bold”.

It was widely interpreted as a dig at his long-time rival Tony Blair, attempting to paint him as a conservative, a man not prepared to take risks, in stark contrast to himself as the man with rock-solid left-wing credentials.

But the fact is Gordon Brown has never been a risk-taker.

He entered Parliament in 1983. He could have done so sooner had he have been prepared to take on party colleagues for a seat earlier rather than wait for the safe Dunfermline East.

And, had he have been prepared to take on Mr Blair for the party leadership in 1994, rather than agree on a deal in Islington’s Granita restaurant to back him, he would not have spent the past 13 years brooding. He would almost certainly of lost, it is usually forgotten now, but at least he would have known.

Which is why it is so unusual that the political world is on tenterhooks this weekend to see if Mr Brown embarks on the biggest risk of his career and calls an election that could possibly see him go down in history as the Prime Minister with the second shortest period in office ever. And at least George Canning (119 days in 1827) had the excuse of dying.

This time last week it seemed almost definite. With Labour eight points ahead in the polls, they appeared assured of victory.

But then the Conservatives had – by general agreement – a good conference in Blackpool, with a number of crowd-pleasing policies on tax and welfare, and an unscripted, personal speech by leader David Cameron.

As Mr Brown and his closest advisors mull over the newspapers this morning, they know they have a massive decision to make. If – as many predict – they want to go to the country on November 1, Mr Brown will have to see the Queen by Tuesday.

How do Welsh MPs feel about this?

Wales on Sunday spoke to MPs from all four parties in the last few days. And the verdict was clear: almost everybody expects Mr Brown to call an election for either November 1 or 8. And the remainder were ‘don’t knows’: not a single MP was prepared to rule out an autumn poll.

And while the majority of Welsh MPs who responded to our inquiries said they were not bothered one way or the other as to when the election was called, many welcomed a snap poll. Nobody – unsurprisingly – said they would rather not.

Where it matters, of course, is in Wales’ relatively few marginal seats.

If Labour are to increase their majority – something that now seems far less likely than it did seven days ago – one constituency they will have to take is Clwyd West, where just a 0.1 per cent swing will take the seat back from the Tories.

David Jones, who currently holds the seat says he is “90 per cent certain” the Prime Minister will call a general election for November 1. But he points to the fact Labour do not even have a candidate in place in the constituency as proof to his theory that Mr Brown is now just looking for a decreased majority rather than hoping to bump it up.

“I think there will certainly be an election on November 1,” he says. “I think there’s very little doubt about it.

“I think that Gordon Brown is adopting a cut-and-run strategy. I think he expects to win with a reduced majority but enough to keep them there for another four or five years. If he leaves it any longer there could be economic problems coming up.

“If he wanting a bigger majority he’d put it off for another six months. In a lot of the seats he’d be expecting them to be targeting if he was adopting an aggressive strategy he’s got no candidate in place. For example they’ve not got one for Clwyd West.

“I think what he’s hoping for is to be returned with a reduced majority, coming down from 60-odd to maybe 20, 30 seats.”

Mr Jones’ attitude was similar to the line all Tories are saying publicly: bring it on.

“They’ve been talking it up so long I want to get stuck into it,” he said. “We’ve already got our campaign team in place.”

Another Welsh seat Labour would be looking to take from the Tories is Preseli Pembrokeshire, where an 0.8 per cent swing would win it from sitting MP Stephen Crabb. He too expects an election in the coming weeks but added: “Gordon Brown has a history of avoiding contests so he may well bottle out.”

He, like his colleagues – publicly at least – wants the Prime Minister to get on with it and get the poll out of the way.

“Labour have been playing games for three weeks by fuelling speculation about the election and then trying to dampen it down,” he said.

“The quicker we

move to fixed-term parliaments the better so that this nonsense cannot happen in future. In the meantime, I say let’s have the election and

allow people to cast their verdict on Brown.”

The seat of Arfon, the new constituency created by boundary changes, is also going to be a vital battle in the election, whenever it is called. The current seat of Caernarfon is held by Plaid Cymru’s Hywel Williams, but, had the 2005 election been held under the new boundaries, it would have been won by Labour with a slim majority of 456.

Mr Williams is also expecting Mr Brown to start the firing gun this week: “Actually, I told people in April if you’ve got a tenner, put it on an Autumn election, but unfortunately I didn’t follow my own advice.

“Like everybody else I think it will be the first or eighth of November.

“I hope it’s the first. I think we need a short, focused campaign.

“There’s a question as to why we’re going now. I’d like to see him explain himself. What I assume he’ll say on Monday or Tuesday is say people now know what he stands for and that he has a legislative programme.”

The Plaid operation was ready “ish”, Mr Williams said. “You’ve got to remember, we had an election in May so the engine is still warm.”

For the Liberal Democrats, Lembit Öpik, the party’s Welsh leader, expects a poll at the beginning of November, having changed his mind following Labour’s Bournemouth conference.

Saying he thought it was “70-30” in favour of a snap Autumn poll, he added: “Basically, the Conservatives have had a fairly poor conference and it seems to me Gordon Brown is willing to put his money where his mouth is and go to the country.

“Until a week ago I would have said it was unlikely but Gordon Brown had such a good conference.”

Everything was in place for the Welsh Liberal Democrats, he said – manifesto, candidates and cash.

He said: “It’s always been a possibility that we’d have an October election and the party got ready in July, really.

“The manifesto’s there, the candidates are in place, money’s been raised. It doesn’t really cause the party a problem in that way.”

But, he claimed, he was personally unconcerned about when the election took place.

“The way I look at it is when the election is election is called I’ll stand and fight to win,” he said. “It doesn’t really make much of a difference to me when the election is.”

Labour MPs, perhaps unsurprisingly, prefer to keep their cards disappointingly close to their chest, loyally parroting the party line: it’s up to Gordon.

“Whenever he calls it, it’s fine by me,” says Wayne David, the ultra-loyal MP for Caerphilly, in comments identical to many Labour members. “I’m confident that Labour will do well whenever the election is.”

Martyn Jones, MP for Clwyd South, is similar: “Any decision about a general election is up to the Prime Minister but I am confident that when the election comes the Welsh Labour Party and particularly those in Clwyd South will be ready.”

At least Paul Flynn, the rebellious member for Newport West, was prepared to put his head above the parapet. Asked whether he thought there would be a general election and whether he would welcome one, he answered a simple: “Yes and yes”.

The fact is, only one man really knows whether Britain will go to the polls in the first Autumn election since 1974.

It will be cold and possibly wet: factors which would hit Labour harder, as voters stay at home in the evenings. The polls could fluctuate wildly. And there’s that other factor that could occur in the meantime: events.

Gordon Brown is not known as a risk-taker, and he will know as he sits in Chequers today this: get this one wrong, and it will be the last one he ever takes.