Indiana 2008 – County by County - Part II
Part I is here.
But there is more. As I was
calculating, remembering the statewide partisan shift of +21.71%,
I began seeing small rural county after small rural county where
Obama gained approximately 10-12%, McCain lost 10-13%, the „other“
vote practically doubled to about 1.5-2.0% and the partisan shift was
between 20-25%. And remember, I am talking about small, overwhelmingly white rural counties.
To prove this point, here is a table of
all 92 counties, in descending order of partisan shift. Also
included is the county's % of the statewide PV from 2008 and 2004,
plus the difference between the two.The smaller the percent, the smaller the county.
EXAMPLE: Marion county comprised 13.00% of the PV in INDIANA in 2004, and 13.80% of the PV in INDIANA in 2008, a +0.80% growth rate. You will see that for most counties, the growth rate or rate of decline is negligible. And don't forget: a negate partisan shift in red (GOP) means the same thing as a positive partisan shift in blue (DEM), so every value for the partisan shift in this table is a movement toward the Democratic party, regardless of color.
|
County |
% of 2008 PV |
% of 2004 PV |
% shift |
Partisan shift |
|
Dubois |
0.67% |
0.69% |
-0.03% |
-33.99% |
|
Rush |
0.28% |
0.30% |
-0.02% |
-31.66% |
|
Tippecanoe |
2.49% |
2.12% |
+0.37% |
+30.85% |
|
Montgomery |
0.56% |
0.59% |
-0.03% |
-30.69% |
|
Clinton |
0.45% |
0.48% |
-0.03% |
-30.23% |
|
Elkhardt |
2.60% |
2.49% |
+0.11% |
-29.54% |
|
Delaware |
1.82% |
1.94% |
-0.13% |
+28.77 |
|
Cass |
0.57% |
0.56% |
+0.01% |
-28.55% |
|
Blackford |
0.20% |
0.22% |
-0.02% |
-28.46% |
|
Tipton |
0.28% |
0.32% |
-0.04% |
-28.04% |
|
White |
0.39% |
0.42% |
-0.03% |
-27.38% |
|
Hamilton |
4.70% |
4.25% |
-0.45% |
-26.89% |
|
Marion |
13.81% |
13.00% |
+0.80% |
+26.40% |
|
Madison |
2.08% |
2.22% |
-0.14% |
+25.94% |
|
Clay |
0.41% |
0.44% |
-0.03% |
-25.83% |
|
Benton |
0.14% |
0.16% |
-0.02% |
-25.38% |
|
Henry |
0.77% |
0.83% |
-0.06% |
-25.15% |
|
Jay |
0.30% |
0.33% |
-0.03% |
-24.79% |
|
Putnam |
0.53% |
0.53% |
0.00 |
-24.62% |
|
Grant |
0.96% |
1.11% |
-0.15% |
-24.30% |
|
Hendricks |
2.36% |
2.12% |
+0.24% |
-24.24% |
|
Boone |
0.97% |
0.93% |
-0.04% |
-24.13% |
|
Monroe |
2.30% |
2.04% |
+0.26% |
+23.98% |
|
Caroll |
0.32% |
0.35% |
-0.03% |
-23.96% |
|
Noble |
0.62% |
0.64% |
-0.02% |
-23.89% |
|
Shelby |
0.64% |
0.65% |
-0.01% |
-23.88% |
|
Bartholomew |
1.13% |
1.16% |
-0.03% |
-23.68% |
|
Posey |
0.46% |
0.49% |
-0.03% |
-23.63% |
|
Jennings |
0.43% |
0.43% |
0.00% |
-23.61% |
|
Decatur |
0.38% |
0.41% |
-0.03% |
+23.45% |
|
Fulton |
0.33% |
0.35% |
-0.02% |
-23.25% |
|
Jackson |
0.63% |
0.66% |
-0.03% |
-23.08% |
|
Perry |
0.31% |
0.34% |
-0.03% |
+22.91% |
|
Allen |
5.46% |
5.25% |
+0.21% |
-22.89% |
|
Marshall |
0.67% |
0.72% |
-0.05% |
-22.81% |
|
Howard |
1.40% |
1.50% |
-0.10% |
-22.79% |
|
Johnson |
2.14% |
2.08% |
+0.06% |
-22.70% |
|
LaPorte |
1.70% |
1.73% |
-0.03% |
+22.50% |
|
Miami |
0.51% |
0.55% |
-0.04% |
-22.46% |
|
Huntington |
0.59% |
0.63% |
-0.04% |
-22.34% |
|
Vigo |
1.59% |
1.61% |
-0.02% |
+22.28% |
|
Owen |
0.30% |
0.31% |
-0.01% |
-22.06% |
|
LaGrange |
0.34% |
0.36% |
-0.02% |
-21.91% |
|
Steuben |
0.51% |
0.52% |
-0.01% |
-21.85% |
|
Brown |
0.29% |
0.30% |
-0.01% |
-21.75% |
|
Wabash |
0.50% |
0.55% |
-0.05% |
-21.75% |
|
INDIANA |
100.00% |
100.00% |
0.00% |
+21.71% |
|
DeKalb |
0.62% |
0.62% |
0.00% |
-21.54% |
|
Randolph |
0.39% |
0.45% |
-0.06% |
-21.51% |
|
Fountain |
0.27% |
0.32% |
+0.05% |
-21.30% |
|
Morgan |
1.05% |
1.05% |
0.00% |
-21.13% |
|
Knox |
0.60% |
0.64% |
-0.04% |
-21.05% |
|
Pulaski |
0.22% |
0.23% |
-0.01% |
-21.00% |
|
Adams |
0.49% |
0.54% |
-0.05% |
-20.92% |
|
Spencer |
0.37% |
0.40% |
-0.03% |
+20.67% |
|
Vanderburgh |
2.82% |
2.86% |
-0.04% |
+20.43% |
|
Whitley |
0.55% |
0.55% |
0.00% |
-20.30% |
|
Warren |
0.15% |
0.16% |
0.01% |
-20.25% |
|
Hancock |
1.24% |
1.13% |
-0.11% |
-20.15% |
|
Kosciuosko |
1.09% |
1.15% |
-0.06% |
-19.64% |
|
St. Joseph |
4.30% |
4.40% |
-0.10% |
+19.47% |
|
Sullivan |
0.32% |
0.34% |
-0.02% |
-19.08% |
|
Newton |
0.22% |
0.24% |
-0.02% |
-18.31% |
|
Lawrence |
0.67% |
0.72% |
-0.05% |
-18.21% |
|
Orange |
0.29% |
0.35% |
-0.06% |
-18.17% |
|
Warrick |
1.04% |
1.05% |
-0.01% |
-17.70% |
|
Wells |
0.47% |
0.50% |
-0.03% |
-17.65% |
|
Parke |
0.25% |
0.28% |
-0.03% |
-17.24% |
|
Wayne |
1.04% |
1.12% |
-0.08% |
-17.17% |
|
Fayette |
0.34% |
0.38% |
-0.04% |
-16.97% |
|
Jasper |
0.47% |
0.48% |
-0.01% |
-16.58% |
|
Porter |
2.68% |
2.63% |
+0.05% |
+15.53% |
|
Vermillion |
0.26% |
0.28% |
-0.02% |
+15.51% |
|
Greene |
0.50% |
0.54% |
-0.04% |
-15.44% |
|
Daviess |
0.38% |
0.43% |
-0.05% |
-15.38% |
|
Jefferson |
0.49% |
0.53% |
-0.04% |
-14.48% |
|
Starke |
0.34% |
0.36% |
-0.02% |
+12.83% |
|
Pike |
0.22% |
0.25% |
-0.03% |
-12.72% |
|
Crawford |
0.17% |
0.19% |
-0.02% |
-12.55% |
|
Gibson |
0.55% |
0.59% |
-0.04% |
-12.48% |
|
Union |
0.12% |
0.14% |
-0.02% |
-11.51% |
|
Lake |
7.59% |
7.62% |
-0.03% |
+11.45% |
|
Washington |
0.41% |
0.43% |
-0.02% |
-10.59% |
|
Switzerland |
0.13% |
0.15% |
-0.02% |
-10.28% |
|
Ripley |
0.44% |
0.48% |
-0.04% |
-10.24% |
|
Harrison |
0.66% |
0.70% |
-0.04% |
-9.95% |
|
USA |
-- |
-- |
-- |
+9.73% |
|
Scott |
0.32% |
0.35% |
-0.03% |
-9.23% |
|
Clark |
1.73% |
1.72% |
+0.01% |
-9.11% |
|
Martin |
0.18% |
0.20% |
-0.02% |
-8.99% |
|
Floyd |
1.33% |
1.37% |
-0.04% |
-7.65% |
|
Franklin |
0.39% |
0.40% |
-0.01% |
-6.49% |
|
Ohio |
0.11% |
0.12% |
-0.01% |
-3.19% |
|
Dearborn |
0.81% |
0.85% |
-0.04% |
-1.46% |
From this table, we can see that all 92 counties trended democratic, and that 85 of those 92 counties in INDIANA trended more democratic than the national trend. (+9.73)
We can also see that 46 counties had
partisan shifts greater than the shift for the entire state (+21.71%). That's exactly 50% of all counties.
Of the counties that trended weakly blue (or weakly negative red, depending on how you wish to look at it)- counties that had single digit margin shifts or low double digit margin shifts- they all in or very near to the southern border of the state, bordering mostly with KY, but also some with southwest OH. So, as expected, there is some geographic influence here.
Also to note is that Vigo County, by having gone for Obama in 2008, has been declared THE BELLWETHER county in the nation.
Here a numeric breakdown:
|
Partisan-shift range |
No. of Counties |
% of 92 |
|
30% and higher |
5 |
0.54% |
|
25% to 25.99% |
12 |
13.01% |
|
20% to +24.99% |
41 |
44.57% |
|
15% to +19.99% |
16 |
17.39% |
|
10% to +14.99% |
10 |
10.87% |
|
5% to +9.99% |
6 |
6.52% |
|
1% to +4.99% |
2 |
2.17% |
Here a prime example:
Allen county. Obama lost Allen county 47.41% to McCain's 51.75%, turning the county into a close race. Obama improved on Kerry's percent from 2004 by +11.37%. McCain did -11.63% worse than Bush did in 2004, causing a partisan shift of 22.89% toward the democrats. But looking at the raw vote totals shows us how Obama won INDIANA overall: McCain fell 4,220 votes short of Bush's raw vote total in Allen county from 2004, but Obama added 24,553 votes over Kerry's total. So, in spite of the fact that Obama lost this county, he picked up oodles and oodles of votes. Take a look again at the excel document and you will be able to see this phenomenon throughout the entire state: in the overwhelmingly white rural counties as well as in the large urban and suburban counties, Obama racks up a huge increase in votes, McCain falls somewhat (or sometimes, very) short of Bush's total from 2004, and either republican margins are decidedly increased, or in the case of 11 counties, those 11 counties flip.
More in Part III .